Diversification and Portfolio Theory: A Review: Gilles Boevi Koumou
Diversification and Portfolio Theory: A Review: Gilles Boevi Koumou
Diversification and Portfolio Theory: A Review: Gilles Boevi Koumou
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-020-00352-6
Abstract
Diversification is one of the major components of investment decision-making under
risk or uncertainty. However, paradoxically, as the 2007–2009 financial crisis revealed,
the concept remains misunderstood. Our goal in writing this paper is to correct this
issue by reviewing the concept in portfolio theory. The core of our review focuses on the
following diversification principles: law of large numbers, correlation, capital asset
pricing model and risk contribution or risk parity diversification principles. These four
diversification principles are the DNA of the existing portfolio selection rules and asset
pricing theories and are instrumental to the understanding of diversification in portfolio
theory. We review their definition. We also review their optimality, with respect to
expected utility theory, and their usefulness. Finally, we explore their measurement.
1 Introduction
The 2007–2009 financial crisis has raised a large number of questions about the capa-
bility of diversification to protect well against loss. Critics (see Fabozzi et al. 2014;
Holton 2009, among others) argue that diversification failed to adequately protect
against loss during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, because (Pearson) correlations
tend to peak during bear markets. For example, Thomas Kieselstein, CIO and man-
1 Canada Research Chair in Risk Management, Department of Finance, HEC Montréal, 3000,
chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, QC H3T 2A7, Canada
2 Department of Economics and Administration Sciences, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 555,
boulevard de l’Université, Chicoutimi, QC G7H 2B1, Canada
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268 G. B. Koumou
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 269
1 http://juchre.org/talmud/babametzia/babametzia.htm.
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270 G. B. Koumou
Most recently, Lhabitant (2017) provides a more detailed and technical review of
portfolio diversification (see Table 1). His book also covers issues on portfolio diver-
sification, including the household diversification puzzle, the diversification versus
concentration dilemma and the interpreting of the (Pearson) correlation.
Short but interesting reviews on portfolio diversification strategies or measures can
also be found in other studies. For example, Deguest et al. (2013) classify portfolio
diversification measures into two categories: weight-based measures and risk-based
measures (see Table 1). Carli et al. (2014) adopt this classification for their review of
portfolio diversification measures (see Table 1). Sharma (2018) distinguishes factor-
based measures from risk-based measures in his review of portfolio diversification
measures. He thus adopts the following classification: weight-based measures, risk-
based measures and factor-based measures (see Table 1).
Instead of a highly selective review as in the studies by Fragkiskos (2013) and Flint
et al. (2015), or an exhaustive review as Lhabitant (2017) did, this review proposes
another route, that of focusing on the following diversification principles: law of large
numbers, correlation, capital asset pricing model, risk contribution or risk parity
diversification principles. These four diversification principles are the DNA of the
existing portfolio selection rules and asset pricing theories and are instrumental to
the understanding of diversification in portfolio theory. The law of large numbers
diversification principle, which is the combination of portfolio size-based and weight-
based diversification principles, is at the core of asset pricing theories; it is also used
as asset allocation strategy. The correlation diversification principle, which exploits
the interdependence between assets, is at the core of expected utility theory and the
mean-variance model, among others. The capital asset pricing model diversification
principle is a sophisticated combination of the market portfolio diversification (at
the level of individual asset) and the correlation diversification (at the level of asset
class). The risk contribution or risk parity diversification principle is at the core of risk
budgeting approaches.
We review the definition of each diversification principle. We also review their
optimality with respect to expected utility theory and their usefulness for a risk averse
investor. Finally, we explore their measurement.
Our analysis is limited in two respects. First, we focus only on asset diversification.
We do not discuss the time diversification. We refer the readers to the study by Lhabitant
(2017, Chapter 6) for time diversification. Second, we focus on theoretical aspects of
portfolio diversification. We do not cover empirical analysis.
This review is structured as follows. We start by introducing the notation and def-
initions required for our review (Sect. 2). We then review our four diversification
principles (Sects. 3 to 6). Section 7 concludes the paper.
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 271
Table 1 List of diversification strategies and class of diversification measures covered by the existing
reviews
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272 G. B. Koumou
Table 1 continued
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 273
Table 1 continued
Sharma (2018) Weight-based measures (i) Herfindahl index (Woerheide and Persson
1993) (ii) Shannon entropy (Bera and Park
2008) (iii) Effective number of
constituents (Carli et al. 2014)
Risk-based measures (i) Implied (Pearson) correlation index
(Skintzi and Refenes 2005) (ii)
Diversification ratio (Choueifaty and
Coignard 2008) (iii) Goetzmann et al.’s
(2005) measure (iv) Christoffersen et al.’s
(2012) measure
Factor-based measures (i) Effective number of bets (Meucci 2009;
Meucci et al. 2015) (ii) Portfolio
diversification index (Rudin and Morgan
2006) (iii) Unsystematic risk ratio (Sharma
2018)
2 Preliminaries
2.1 Notation
Throughout the review, vectors and matrices are shown in bold. The term asset refers
to both asset class or individual asset (e.g., stocks, bonds). We consider a one-period
settings. Thissetting rules out the possibilityof time diversification.
Let W = w = (w1 , . . . , w N ) ∈ R N : i=1 N
wi = 1; wi ≥ 0, i = 1, . . . , N be
the set of long-only portfolios, where wi is the weight of asset i in portfolio w, is the
transpose operator and R is the set of real numbers. The market portfolio is denoted
by wm . A portfolio w ∈ W is said to be diversified if at least two assets have strictly
positive weights (i.e., ∃ i, j /wi , w j > 0); if all assets have a strictly positive weights
(i.e., wi > 0, ∀ i = 1, . . . , N ), the portfolio is considered completely diversified. A
single asset portfolio is denoted δ i = (δi1 , . . . , δi N ) , where δi j is Kronecker delta
(i.e., δii = 1 for all i = 1, . . . , N and δi j = 0 for all i = j).
Let Ri ∈ R denote the future return on asset i, where R = L∞ (, E, P) is
the vector space of bounded real-valued random variables on a probability space
(, E, P), with being the set of states of nature, E is the − algebra of events, and
P is a − additive probability measure on (, E). The future return on portfolio w is
R(w) = w R, where R = (R1 , . . . , R N ) . The expected value of Ri is μi = E(Ri ),
its variance σi2 = Var(Ri ), its risk (Ri ), its cumulative function FRi (ri ) and its
probability function f Ri (ri ), where E(.), Var(.) and (.) are the operator of expectation,
the operator of variance and the risk measure, respectively. The covariance between
N
Ri and R j is σi j = Cov(Ri , R j ) and the covariance matrix is = σi j i, j=1 , with
σii ≡ σi2 and Cov(.) the operator of covariance. The (Pearson) correlation between
σ
Ri and R j is ρi j = σi iσj j = Cor(Ri , R j ) and the (Pearson) correlation matrix is ρ =
N
ρi j i, j=1 , with Cor(.) the operator of (Pearson) correlation. The return on the risk-free
asset is denoted R f . The expected value of portfolio w is μ(w) = w μ and its risk
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274 G. B. Koumou
Since the investors are risk averse, u(.) is assumed to be concave. We will denote
E (u(R1 )) by Eu(R1 ).
The mean-variance expected quadratic utility function is
τ
U M V (R(w)) = w μ − w w, (2)
2
2.2 Definitions
The concept of exchangeable random variables plays an important role in the opti-
mality, in terms of expected utility theory, of the naive diversification principle, a
particular case of the law of large numbers diversification principle.
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 275
The notion of correlation aversion was introduced by Epstein and Tanny (1980). It is
equivalent to the notion of multivariate risk aversion of Richard (1975) and De Finetti
(1952) (see Dorfleitner and Krapp 2007).
Consider a decision maker (here an investor) whose preference is represented by a
bivariate utility function v(y, z), y, z ∈ R. Assume that v(y, z) is twice continuously
differentiable in y and z.
Definition 2 (From Richard (1975) Theorem 1) A decision maker is correlation averse
if and only if ∀ (y, z) ∈ R × R,
∂ 2 v(y, z)
≤ 0, (4)
∂ y ∂z
∂ 2 v(y)
≤ 0. (5)
∂ yi ∂ y j
where y, z are positive. Richard (1975) and recently Eeckhoudt et al. (2007) show that
a decision maker exhibits correlation aversion if he/she prefers L 2 to L 1 . This implies
that correlation averse decision makers prefer diversification (of course correlation
diversification) to concentration (see Epstein and Tanny 1980).
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276 G. B. Koumou
In this review, we will use the notion of correlation aversion to prove that the
correlation diversification is at the core of expected utility theory.
In this section, we review our first diversification principle, which is the law of large
numbers (LLN) principle.
The LLN is a theorem in probability and statistics first formulated by Cardano in
the 16th century and later proved by Bernoulli in the 18th century (see Seneta 2013). It
states that the average of a large number of independent identically distributed random
variables should be close to the expected value and will tend to become closer as the
number of random variables increases.
The applications of the LLN are not confined to the domain of probability or
statistics. The principle is also used in domains such as economics (including insurance
and finance) for risk management (see Samuelson 1963; Artstein and Hart 1981; Arrow
and Radner 1979; Judd 1985; Al-Najjar 2004; Uhlig 1996; Ross 1999). In this review,
we focus on the application of the LLN in portfolio theory as a diversification principle.
The LLN is applied in portfolio theory both as asset and time diversification princi-
ple. In this review, we focus on the LLN as an asset diversification principle. Readers
are referred among others to the works of Samuelson (1969), Samuelson (1971), Lloyd
and Haney (1980), McEnally (1985), Stangeland and Turtle (1999) and Bianchi et al.
(2016) for more details on the LLN as a time diversification principle.
3.1 Definition
1
WLLN = w ∈ W wi = O as N −→ ∞ , (7)
N
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 277
where O(.) refers to the big-o function. wi = O N1 as N −→ ∞ means that
there is a positive constant c such as wi ≤ c N1 as N −→ ∞ equivalently wi =
O N1 as N −→ ∞ means that wi −→ 0 if N −→ ∞.
How large portfolio size N and balanced portfolio weights w will be in order to
be considered as a LLN diversified portfolio? In the context when the LLN is used to
reduce idiosyncratic risks, several minimum portfolio sizes were suggested; see Evans
and Archer (1968), Tang (2004), Alexeev and Dungey (2015) and Lhabitant (2017,
Table 3.2, pp. 100), among others. However, to the best of our knowledge, the literature
was silent on how balanced portfolio weights must be in order to be considered as a
LLN diversified portfolio. No specific degree of balance was suggested. To implement
a LLN diversification principle, the literature generally adopts the perfect balance
portfolio, also known as the naive or equal weight portfolio diversification principle,
which consists in investing the same amount of wealth in each available asset; more
formally w = N1 , . . . , N1 ≡ N1 .
The LLN diversification principle is central to asset pricing theories. It plays an impor-
tant role in the condition of no arbitrage in the arbitrage pricing theory (see Ross 1976;
Chamberlain 1983a, b; Ingersoll 1984), and in idiosyncratic risk pricing in both the
arbitrage pricing theory and the capital asset pricing model (see Sharpe 1964).
The LLN diversification principle, particularly the naive diversification principle, is
also used as an alternative stocks’ weighting scheme (see Clarke et al. 2013) and asset
allocation diversification strategy (see DeMiguel et al. 2009a; Pflug et al. 2012; Jacobs
et al. 2014; Hsu et al. 2018), even if asset classes are less exposed to idiosyncratic
risks.
Samuelson (1967) was the first who analyzed the optimality of the naive diversi-
fication in terms of expected utility theory. He (Samuelson 1967, Theorem II) shows
that the naive diversification is optimal in terms of expected utility theory when the
joint distribution of asset returns is exchangeable.
Green and Hollifield (1992) extend this result to the LLN diversification principle,
but under the restrictive conditions that each asset’s returns are normally distributed
and the utility function is negative exponential. More specifically, (Green and Hollifield
1992, Theorem 1) show that the mean-variance portfolio with mean different to the
mean return on the global minimum-variance portfolio is LLN well-diversified if and
only if the weights w of every portfolio satisfies
N
w μ + λmv ≤ K N |Cov(w R, Ri )| (8)
γmv γmv
i=1
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278 G. B. Koumou
1 −1 1 wmv μ− 1 −1 μ μ −1 μ − 1 −1 μ wmv μ
where γmv = 2 , λmv = 2 and
μ −1 μ 1 −1 1 − 1 −1 μ μ −1 μ 1 −1 1 − 1 −1 μ
K N is a positive constant used in the study by Green and Hollifield (1992) to define
the LLN diversification as follows |wi | ≤ K N for each i = 1, . . . , N .
Green and Hollifield (1992, Corollary 1) also show that the global minimum-
variance portfolio, wgmv , is LLN well-diversified if and only if the weights w of
every portfolio satisfy
N
wgmv wgmv ≤ K N |Cov(w R, Ri )|. (10)
i=1
In sum, when (i) full information is available, (ii) the joint distribution of asset
returns is not exchangeable and (iii) conditions 8 and 9 or condition 10 are not satisfied,
the LLN diversification principle becomes a heuristic strategy, which is risky for a
risk averse investor whose preference can be represented by expected utility theory.
Diversification strategies taking into account risk information are then preferable.
However, the LLN diversification principle is still useful as a heuristic approach
(particularly the naive diversification) in the presence of estimation errors (see
DeMiguel et al. 2009a; Bouchaud et al. 1997; Bera and Park 2008; Coqueret 2015;
Carrasco and Noumon 2011; Tu and Zhou 2011), or in the presence of a sufficiently
high degree of model uncertainty in the form of ambiguous loss distributions (see
Pflug et al. 2012).
3.3 Measurement
There is no measure to capture the effect of LLN diversification in the literature, except
in the special case of naive diversification. In this review, we present the effective num-
ber of constituents (ENC), a class of measures of naive diversification. We also present
an example of application of the divergence measure (Kullback-Leibler divergence) as
a measure of naive diversification. Finally, we suggest a measure to capture the effect
of LLN diversification based on Kullback-Leibler divergence. For others measures of
the naive diversification, we refer readers to Yu et al. (2014), De Giorgi and Mahmoud
(2016) and Lhabitant (2017, Chapter 1).
N 1−υ
1
υ
ENCυ (w) = wυ 1−υ
= wiυ , υ ≥ 0, υ = 1, (11)
i=1
1
N υ υ
where wυ = i=1 wi is the L υ norm of w.
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 279
The ENC can also beviewed as the generalized or power mean of the inverse of
portfolio weight w−1 = w11 , . . . , w1N , where the weight vector is w
N
1−υ 1−υ
1
1
ENCυ (w) = wi , υ ≥ 0, υ = 1. (12)
wi
i=1
The interpretation of ENCυ (w) is straightforward: the higher the value of ENCυ (w)
is, the more diversified w is in terms of naive diversification. ENCυ reaches a minimum
equal to 1 if the portfolio w is fully concentrated in a single asset, w = δ i , and a
maximum equal to N if the portfolio w coincides with the naive portfolio, w = N1 .
Following Hannah and Kay (1977, Chapter 4, pp. 55–56), one can interpret υ as a
parameter capable of variation to reflect alternative views of naive diversification. It
captures investors’ degree of preference for LLN diversification: a high υ emphasizes
high degree of preference, while a low υ emphasizes low degree of preference.
If υ = 2, then ENC2 reduces to the inverse of the familiar Herfindahl or Herfindahl-
Hirschman index, introduced in portfolio theory as a portfolio diversification measure
by Woerheide and Persson (1993) and much used in the literature (see Zhou et al.
2013; DeMiguel et al. 2009a; Lhabitant 2017); more formally
1
ENC2 (w) = , (13)
HI(w)
N
where HI(w) = i=1 wi2 is the Herfindahl index.
By interpreting w as a vector of probability distribution of a random variable (where
N is the number of states) following Yu et al. (2014) and Lhabitant (2017, Chapter
1, pp. 20), it can also be shown that when υ converges to 1, ENC1 reduces to the
exponential of the Shannon index or entropy
1 − (ENCυ (w))1−υ
BMυ (w) = , υ ≥ 0, υ = 1. (15)
υ −1
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280 G. B. Koumou
ENCυ is also related to Renyi’s (1961) entropy (RE), another class of measures of
naive diversification, as follows
In practice, the choice of the value of υ remains an open question. Carli et al. (2014)
recommend to use ENC2 when dealing with long-short portfolios and both ENC1 and
ENC2 when dealing with long-only portfolios.
Measures of divergence between probability distributions are also used to capture the
effect of naive diversification (see Bera and Park 2008; Zhou et al. 2013; Lhabitant
2017). In this review, we focus on Kullback-Leibler divergence.
Kullback-Leibler divergence of a discrete probability distribution p with respect to
a discrete probability distribution q is defined as follows
N
pi
D(p|q) = pi ln . (18)
qi
i=1
N
1 wi
D w = wi ln . (19)
N 1/N
i=1
The interpretation of D w N1 is straightforward: the lower the value of D w N1
1
is, the closer w is to and the more diversified w is in terms of naive diversification.
N
1
In the extreme case of D w N = 0, w coincides with N1 . Note that instead of using
the Kullback-Leibler divergence of w with respect to N1 , D w N1 , one can also use
the Kullback-Leibler divergence of N1 with respect to w, D N1 w .
The Kullback-Leibler divergence can also be adapted to capture the effect of LLN
diversification. Given a positive infinitesimal quantity > 0, one can consider that
the portfolio w is LLN well-diversified at level if and only if
1
D w ≤ . (20)
N
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 281
4.1 Definition
2 http://juchre.org/talmud/babametzia/babametzia.htm.
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282 G. B. Koumou
and judgment that he can muster in choosing specific securities and in timing
his purchases and sales.
Roy (1952) and Markowitz (1952) were the first to provide investment theories
that covered the effect of correlation diversification. For example, Markowitz (1952)
describes correlation diversification as follows
N
N
G(w) = G(w) − wi G(δ i ) = wi (G(w) − G(δ i )) . (21)
i=1 i=1
N
WG = w ∈ W w ∈ arg Max G(w) − wi G(δ i ) . (22)
W i=1
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 283
The correlation diversification is at the core of the mean-variance model (also known
as the efficient diversification) and its extensions; see Markowitz (1959), Konno and
Yamazaki (1991), Fishburn (1977), Kang et al. (1996), Shalit and Yitzhaki (1984),
Alexander and Baptista (2002), De Giorgi (2002), Rockafellar and Uryasev (2000),
Krokhmal et al. (2001), Rockafellar et al. (2006), Rockafellar et al. (2007), Holthausen
(1981) and Cumova and Nawrocki (2014) among others.
It is also central to expected utility theory in general. To verify this let us first show
that a risk averse investor whose preference can be represented by expected utility
theory exhibits correlation aversion. Without a loss of generality, assume that the
investor’s initial wealth W0 = 1. The optimization problem of a risk averse investor
whose preference can be represented with expected utility theory is
N
max Eu 1 + wi Ri . (23)
w∈W
i=1
From (5) and (25), we can observe that a risk averse investor whose preference can be
represented by expected utility theory exhibits correlation aversion. As a result, the
diversification principle in expected utility theory follows the correlation diversifica-
tion principle and is guided by the concavity of u(.). This result remains valid in the
presence of the risk-free asset. Readers are also referred to Samuelson (1967), Scheff-
man (1973), Brumelle (1974) and MacMinn (1984) for the role of asset correlations
in portfolio diversification in expected utility theory.
In accordance with (21), the correlation diversification in expected utility theory
can be quantified by
N
Eu(w) = Eu (R (w)) − wi Eu(Ri ). (26)
i=1
As we can remark, the optimal portfolio of Eu(w) coincide with expected utility
optimal portfolio if and only if assets have the same expected utility, Eu(Ri ) = u, i =
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284 G. B. Koumou
The correlation between U.S. stocks’ monthly returns, as measured by the S&P
500 Index, and international stocks, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index, was
0.88 during the 13-year period from January 2000 through December 2012. The
12-month gap between the returns of U.S. and international stocks during the
period ranged from a low of 0.2% to a high of 23.0%.
The benefits of diversification between U.S. and international stocks were neg-
ligible during the 12 months ending in October 2001, where the return gap was
0.2%, but huge during the 12 months ending in March 2004, where the return
gap was 23.0%. Investors do not know future return gaps, but they do know that
diversification would place them inside the gap, whether that gap is 0.2% or
23.0%.
U.S. stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, lost 37.00% in 2008; international
stocks, measured by the MSCI EAFE, lost 43.06%. The return gap that year
was 6.06%. An investor who diversified her portfolio equally between U.S. and
international stocks in 2008 lost 40.03% of her portfolio. That loss is midway
inside the gap between the loss of U.S. stocks’ loss and international stocks’
loss.
A 40.03% loss is very sad, but not as sad as the 43.06% loss of the investor
who placed his entire portfolio in international stocks. The top of the gap does
not necessarily provide a positive return. The entire gap can be in the region
of losses, as in 2008. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss-it only
mitigates that risk. Only the risk-free rate eliminates losses, and that rate is low.
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 285
4.3 Measurement
Several measures were designed to quantify the effect of portfolio correlation diversifi-
cation. In this review, we focus on the most commonly used measures. These measures
are: diversification returns (Booth and Fama 1992; Willenbrock 2011; Chambers and
Zdanowicz 2014; Bouchey et al. 2012; Qian 2012), Embrechts et al.’s (1999) class of
measures and diversification ratio (Choueifaty and Coignard 2008; Choueifaty et al.
2013). We refer the readers to Statman and Scheid (2005, 2008), Mitton and Vorkink
(2007, pp. 1269, Equation 7), Skintzi and Refenes (2005) and Carmichael et al. (2018)
for other measures of portfolio correlation diversification.
In the particular case where u(.) is the logarithmic function, Eu(w) from (26) coin-
cides with diversification returns, a measure of portfolio correlation diversification
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286 G. B. Koumou
Var(R)
μG ≈ E(R) − . (31)
2
E ln(w) ≈ w σ 2 − w w, (32)
where σ 2 = σ12 , . . . , σ N2 . This approximation of E ln(w) was analyzed by Willen-
brock (2011), Chambers and Zdanowicz (2014), Bouchey et al. (2012), Qian (2012)
and Fernholz (2010) but under the name of excess growth rate, and has been shown by
Carmichael et al. (2015) to be the specific portfolio diversification in the mean-variance
model . Its normalized version
w σ 2
GLR(w) = (33)
w w
was analyzed by Goetzmann et al. (2005) and Goetzmann and Kumar (2008).
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 287
N
EFK (w) = (wi Ri ) − w R . (35)
i=1
N
EFK (w) = wi ( Ri ) − w R . (36)
i=1
Similarly to Eu(w), EFK (w) measures the average benefit of diversification, in terms
of risk reduction, of holding portfolio w instead of holding a single asset portfolio.
Tasche (2006) analyzes the normalized version of EFK which applied to portfolio
w is defined as follows
w R
DF (w) = N . (37)
i=1 (wi Ri )
In general, EFK (w) and DF (w) are viewed as adequate portfolio correlation
diversification measures when (.) is a coherent (in the sense of Artzner et al. (1999))
and comonotonic risk measure (see Emmer et al. 2015).
When (.) is different from the volatility or the variance risk measure, EFK and
DF take higher moments into account. An example is the diversification delta (DD)
introduced by Vermorken et al. (2012)
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288 G. B. Koumou
Moreover, the entropy risk measure H (.) is not left-bounded. As an alternative, Flores
et al. (2017) suggest replacing H (.) by the exponential entropy exp(H (.))
exp(H (R)) = exp − f R (r ) ln ( f R (r )) dr . (40)
exp(H (.)) satisfies desirable properties, and defines a new diversification measure
which can be viewed as a special case of DF
The principal advantage of Embrechts et al.’s (2009) or Tasche’s (2006) class mea-
sures is they consider the joint distribution of asset returns. Their major limit is the
computational cost. In addition, they are also only applicable to portfolios of risky
assets. Furthermore, they require the specification of the risk measure (.) and do not
explicitly take into account asset interdependence measures.
w σ
DR(w) = √ . (42)
w w
It can be related to Tasche’s (2006) measure when (.) is the volatility risk measure
1
DR(w) = . (43)
DF (w)
max w w (44)
w∈R+
s.t. w σ = 1. (45)
From (44)-(45), the MDP can also be obtained in two steps. In the first step, the
following optimization problem is solved
max w ρ w. (46)
w∈W
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 289
Let w∗ denote the solution of the problem (46). The second step is to rescale w∗ using
assets’ volatilities
wi∗
wi∗
N
wmd p,i = , ∀ i = 1, . . . , N (47)
σi σi
i=1
Our third diversification principle is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) diversi-
fication principle. It was introduced by Sharpe (1964).
5.1 Definition
The CAPM distinguishes between individual asset and asset classes diversification.
The CAPM individual asset diversification principle is based on the implication of the
CAPM which states that individual asset risk, measured by variance, can be decom-
posed into two components: systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk. The diversification
strategy that can totally eliminate individual asset idiosyncratic risk is the CAPM
individual asset diversification. In other words, as highlighted by Ingersoll (1984), a
portfolio is well-diversified in the sense of CAPM individual asset diversification prin-
ciple only if it is perfectly correlated with the market portfolio. As a consequence, the
set of well-diversified portfolios in terms of the CAPM individual asset diversification
can be characterized as follows
W M P = w ∈ W | Cor(R(w), R(wm )) = 1 (48)
The CAPM asset class diversification principle is based on the one-fund theorem,
another implication of the CAPM, first established by Tobin (1958). The theorem states
3 See http://www.tobam.fr/about-us/ for more details.
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290 G. B. Koumou
that, in the presence of the risk-free asset, every mean-variance efficient portfolio is a
linear combination
of the risk-free asset and the market portfolio (risky fund); more
formally w = w f , (1 − w f )wm , where w f , the weight of the risk-free asset, is
determined by the investor’s risk aversion coefficient
μ(wm ) − R f
1 − wf = . (49)
τ σ 2 (wm )
In the literature, the mix w = w f , (1 − w f )wm is interpreted as a correlation diver-
sification between two asset classes, the risky fund and the risk-free asset.
In sum, the CAPM diversification principle is a sophisticated combination of the
market portfolio diversification principle and the correlation diversification principle.
The difference between CAPM and correlation diversification principles is that, at
individual asset level, the former concerns only idiosyncratic risk reduction and the
latter concerns both systematic and idiosyncratic risk reduction.
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 291
The meltdown of 2001–2002 and the 2007–2009 financial crisis amply demon-
strated the lack of sufficient diversification of the 60/40 portfolio during periods of
distress. The reasons for this lack of diversification are twofold. The first reason is
that stocks and bonds do not have the identical or similar risk profile as pointed out by
Qian (2011) and Geczy (2016). Stocks are more volatile (i.e., risky) than bonds, so the
60/40 portfolio risk profile is similar to that of stocks. The 40% proportion of bonds
fails to provide adequate buffer against loss in stocks, even when correlation between
the two asset classes is low. The second reason is that stock market portfolios are not
well-diversified as might be expected (see Amenc et al. 2012; Choueifaty et al. 2013).
As a consequence, several alternatives to the 60/40 portfolio were suggested. The
first alternative is to improve on stock market portfolios by considering alternative
weighting schemes, including the fundamental weighting scheme of Arnott et al.
(2005), the risk contribution weighting scheme (see Maillard et al. 2010), the naive
portfolio weighting scheme (see Chow et al. 2011), the minimum variance weighting
scheme (see Haugen and Baker, Spring 1991; Clarke et al. 2006) and the maximum
diversification weighting scheme of Choueifaty and Coignard (2008).
The second alternative is to improve on the 60/40 portfolio by considering addi-
tional asset classes such as cash, commodities, real estate, private equity, hedge funds,
managed futures, cryptocurrencies, art and fine wine. Several studies explore the bene-
fits of considering these alternative asset classes in asset allocation; see Table 2, among
others.
The third alternative is to replace the 60/40 allocation by another (1 − w f )/w f
allocation. For example, Qian (2011), using the risk contribution diversification prin-
ciple, suggests replacing the 60/40 portfolio by the 25/75 portfolio; see Asness et al.
123
292 G. B. Koumou
(2012) and Anderson et al. (2012) for more alternatives using the risk contribution
diversification principle. The (100+X)/X long-short weighting schemes, including the
popular 130/30 long-short portfolio are also suggested (see Lo and Patel 2008; Gilli
et al. 2011; Johnson et al. 2007; Jacobs and Levy 2007; Krusen et al. 2008).
Despite the fact that all alternatives to the 60/40 portfolio have attracted substantial
interest from both institutional and individual investors over the last decade, according
to the 2018 Trends in Investing Survey,4 conducted by the Journal of Financial Planning
and the FPA Research and Practice Institute, the 60/40 portfolio is still viable.
5.3 Measurement
The effect of the CAPM asset class diversification can be quantified using the corre-
lation diversification measures presented in Sect. 4.3. In this section, we present the
measures designed to capture the CAPM individual asset diversification.
The first measure designed to capture the effect of the CAPM individual asset diver-
sification is portfolio size; more formally
N
PS(w) = 1{wi >0} (wi ), (50)
i=1
where 1{wi >0} (wi ) is the indicator function. This measure was introduced implicitly
by Evans and Archer (1968), who were inspired by the CAPM. More specifically,
the CAPM implies that portfolio risk, measured by variance, can be decomposed as
follows
where β(w)2 σ 2 (wm ) is the systematic risk with β(w) = Cov(R(wσm2 ),R(w)) =
N m
i=1 wi βi and σε (w) is the idiosyncratic risk. When portfolio w coincides with the
2
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 293
little has been done to identify which N ∗ of the available individual assets should be
included. To the best of our knowledge, only Mao (1970) provided theoretical selection
criteria to identify which N ∗ individual assets should be included.
Portfolio size is the most used measure of portfolio diversification in the literature,
because it is straightforward to implement and to interpret. However, it remains a
crude and naive measure of the CAPM individual asset diversification as highlighted
in Sharpe (1972), because two portfolios with same size can have different level of
idiosyncratic risk regardless of whether the portfolio is equally weighted or market
weighted. Worse, a small portfolio can be more diversified in terms of the CAPM
individual asset diversification than a large portfolio.
Another measure designed to capture the effect of the CAPM individual asset diver-
sification is the measure developed by Sharpe (1972).
Assume that individual assets’ idiosyncratic shocks εi , i = 1, . . . , N are uncorre-
lated. Then the decomposition (51) becomes
N
σ 2 (w) = β (w)2 σ 2 (wm ) + wi2 σε2i . (52)
i=1
Consider the individual asset k as a reference asset. Let σε2i|k be the relative asset i’
idiosyncratic risk such that
σε2i
σε2i|k = . (53)
σε2k
1
SH(w) = N . (54)
i=1 wi σεi|k
2 2
When individual assets have the same idiosyncratic risk level, σε2i = σε20 , ∀ i =
1, . . . , N , SH(w) is proportional or equivalent to the inverse of the Herfindhal index
1
SH(w) = σε20 N . (55)
i=1 wi
2
The major limitation of SH(w) is that it fails to identify the market portfolio as a
well-diversified portfolio.
Another measure designed to capture the effect of the CAPM individual asset diver-
sification is the coefficient of determination introduced by Barnea and Logue (1973).
123
294 G. B. Koumou
β (w)2 σ 2 (wm )
CD(w) = . (56)
σ 2 (w)
Our last diversification principle is the risk contribution (RC) or the risk parity diver-
sification principle. This diversification principle was suggested after the 2007–2009
financial crisis as an alternative to the market portfolio and the 60/40 portfolio. Since
then, it has become a popular investment strategy such that it is featured in the Wall
Street Journal (see Dagher 2012). Despite the huge losses observed in risk parity port-
folios in 2015, this strategy continues to be used by the investors. According to 2016
Risk Parity Investment Survey,5 of the 102 investors surveyed, only 12% said they
would reduce their current allocations, 72% said they would maintain their current
allocations, and 16% said they would reduce their current allocations.
6.1 Definition
5 http://www.ai-cio.com/2016-Risk-Parity-Investment-Survey/.
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Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 295
N
(w R) = i w R , (58)
i=1
where i w R is the absolute risk contribution of asset i. Then portfolio w is diversi-
fied in terms of the RC diversification if and only if (see Maillard et al. 2010; Bhansali
et al. 2012; Roncalli 2014; Roncalli and Weisang 2016)
i w R = j w R ∀ i, j = 1, . . . , N . (59)
w ∂ w (w R)
i (w R) = , ∀ i = 1, . . . , N (60)
κ
R)
∂(w R)
where = (1 , . . . , N ) and ∂ w (w R) = ∂(w
∂w1 , . . . , ∂w N is the vector
of assets’ marginal risk contributions and ∂ w is the partial derivative operator with
respect to w.
From (59), the set of the RC well-diversified portfolios can therefore be character-
ized as follows
W RC = w ∈ W|i w R = j w R , ∀ i, j = 1, . . . , N , (61)
N
2
W RC = arg Min i w R − j w R . (62)
w∈W i, j=1
Assume that (.) is the volatility or variance risk measure. Then W RC becomes
(see Maillard et al. 2010)
β −1
W RC = w ∈ W|wi = N i −1 , ∀ i, j = 1, . . . , N (63)
i=1 βi
i ,R(w))
with βi = Cov(R
σ 2 (w)
.
Assume further that assets’ (Pearson) correlations are identical. Then W RC becomes
(see Maillard et al. 2010)
σ −1
W RC = w ∈ W|wi = N i −1 , ∀ i, j = 1, . . . , N (64)
i=1 σi
123
296 G. B. Koumou
and the RC diversification principle is referred to as the naive risk parity (see Bhansali
et al. 2012; Fisher et al. 2015; Asness et al. 2012; Anderson et al. 2012; Chaves et al.
2012), or the inverse volatility strategy (see Chaves et al. 2011; Neffelli 2018).
In the case where (.) is the volatility risk measure and assets’ (Pearson) correlations
are not identical, or (.) is not the volatility risk measure, the exact solution of (62)
no longer exists. Several algorithms were proposed to find the RC well-diversified
portfolios numerically; see Maillard et al. (2010), Chaves et al. (2012), Spinu (2013),
Mausser and Romanko (2014), Hochreiter (2015), Feng and Palomar (2015), Bai and
Scheinberg (2015), Bai et al. (2016) in the case where (.) is the volatility risk measure,
and Mausser and Romanko (2018), Boudt et al. (2013), Cesarone and Colucci (2018)
otherwise.
Three intuitive economic justifications were provided to the RC diversification
principle. The first intuitive economic justification is based on the risk minimization.
Indeed, from Maillard et al. (2010), it is straightforward to show that the RC well-
diversified portfolios can be obtained by solving the following optimization problem
where the left-hand side of the diversification constraint (66) is the Kullback-Leibler
divergence of the naive portfolio N1 with respect to portfolio w, and η is an arbitrary
constant such that η ∈ (−∞, −N ln(N )). In light of formulation (65)-(66), it is clear
that the RC well-diversified portfolio is a shrinkage of the minimum risk portfolio
towards the naive portfolio. Therefore, the RC diversification principle is useful for a
risk minimization investor in the presence of estimation errors or model uncertainty
(see Fisher et al. 2015). The degree of uncertainty or estimation errors is captured by the
constant η. In addition, from (66) and Sect. 3.3.2, the RC diversification principle can
also be viewed as a LLN diversification principle at level = − N1 (η + N ln(N )), or
as a combination of the correlation diversification principle covered by the objective
function in (65) (risk measure) and the LLN diversification principle at level =
− N1 (η + N ln(N )) covered by the constraint (66).
The second intuitive economic justification is based on the leverage aversion theory.
Pioneered by Black (1972) and extended recently by Frazzini and Pedersen (2014),
the leverage aversion theory breaks the CAPM, and predicts that the highest risk-
adjusted return is not achieved by the market portfolio, but rather by a portfolio that
over-weights safer assets. As a result, an investor who is less leverage averse than
the average investor can benefit by over-weighting low-beta assets, under-weighting
high-beta assets, and applying some leverage to the resulting portfolio. Black et al.
(1972b) and Frazzini and Pedersen (2014) confirm this prediction across a range of
markets and major asset classes. Asness et al. (2012) show that this theory constitutes
a theoretical underpinning for the naive risk parity by providing empirically evidence
that the out-sample performance of the naive unleveraged and leveraged risk parity
are consistent with the leverage aversion theory. However, Anderson et al.’s (2012)
empirical results do not support this consistency.
123
Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 297
The third intuitive economic justification is provided by Kaya and Lee (2012)
and Kaya (2014) based on Bayesian rule. Under the conditions that (i) asset returns
are normally distributed; (ii) the investor believes a priori that each of the short
sale-constrained minimum-variance portfolio weights, wi , is independently and iden-
tically distributed as a Beta distribution with probability density function π(wi ) =
γ
(γ +2) wi
(γ +1) wγ +1 with w > 0, γ > 0 and (.) is the gamma function; and (iii) the investor
believes a priori that the variance of the short sale-constrained minimum-variance
portfolio, denoted by σ 2 , has an independent prior distribution π(σ 2 ), Kaya (2014)
shows that the weights of the risk parity portfolio are the mode of the posterior distri-
bution of the short sale-constrained minimum-variance portfolio weights and can be
obtained by solving
γσ2
N
min w w − ln(wi ) (67)
0≤w≤w T −1
i=1
with w large enough to make the upper constraint w < w unbinding and T the number
of observations of asset returns. More specifically
w∗
wr c = (68)
1 w∗
with w∗ a solution of (67). In other words, the risk parity portfolio is the portfolio with
the highest probability of being the minimum-variance portfolio given the investor’s
prior distribution on portfolio weights and the observed asset returns.
It is proved, in the study by Maillard et al. (2010), that the RC diversification principle
is mean-variance optimal when (.) is the volatility risk measure, but under very
restrictive (if not impossible) conditions, namely that assets have identical Sharpe
ratio and identical (Pearson) correlations.
Kaya (2014) extends this result by showing that the RC diversification principle is
mean-variance optimal if and only if
μ μ
dg ρ −1 = c1, (69)
σ σ
where μ σ = μ1
σ1 , . . . , μN
σN , dg(.) is a diagonal matrix operator and c is a constant.
The condition (69) is less restrictive than the conditions that assets have identical
Sharpe ratio and identical (Pearson) correlations, but remains restrictive in general.
When (.) is the volatility risk measure, Fisher et al. (2015) also show that the RC
diversification principle is optimal, but in the case where assets’ (Pearson) correlations
are identical and with respect to minimax or maximin portfolio optimization under
some particular conditions. More specifically, the authors show that if assets’ expected
123
298 G. B. Koumou
returns are nonnegative and the sum of assets’ Sharpe ratios is greater than a certain
(unknown) value, then the naive risk parity portfolio is the only minimax portfolio
among all portfolios without short sales
N μi
μ μ
where Mσ = μ : i=1 σi ≥ σ , μi ≥ 0, i = 1, . . . , N with σ a constant.
The authors also demonstrate that if each assets’ expected return is positive and all
(Pearson) correlations are less than one, then the naive risk parity is the only maximin
portfolio with respect to the Sharpe ratio among all portfolios without short sales
wrc μ w μ
min = max min ,
∗
μ∈Mσ , ρ∈Mρ wrc (dg(σ )ρ dg(σ )) wr c w∈W μ∈M∗σ , ρ∈Mρ w (dg(σ )ρ dg(σ )) w
(71)
where Mρ = ρ : ρi j, i= j ≤ ρ, 0 < ρ < 1, ρii = 1, i = 1, . . . , N and M∗σ =
μ : μσii ≥ μ
σ > 0, i = 1, . . . , N .
Finally, the authors show that if the sum of all assets’ Sharpe ratios is positive, then
the naive risk parity is the only maximin portfolio with respect to the Sharpe ratio,
among all portfolios without short sales
wrc μ w μ
min∗∗ = max min∗∗ √ , (72)
μ∈Mσ wrc wr c w∈W μ∈Mσ w w
N μi
μ
where M∗∗σ = μ: i=1 σi ≥ σ > 0 .
In sum, the RC diversification principle is a heuristic approach, except in unrealistic
circumstances as highlighted in Agapova et al. (2017)
The discussions about Risk Parity portfolios found in the literature are suffi-
ciently arcane so as to be viewed as profound by many investors. However,
except in unrealistic circumstances, a Risk Parity portfolio is not an optimal
portfolio and hence has no special attraction. It does not maximize the informa-
tion ratio, does not maximize the Sharpe ratio, does not maximize reward subject
to a specified level of risk, does not minimize risk at a specified level of reward,
does not minimize variance, is not mean-variance efficient, etc. So, what’s the
big deal about Risk Parity?
In practice, the RC diversification principle is applied both to asset classes (Qian
2011; Chaves et al. 2011) and individual assets (Clarke et al. 2013), and it is often
leveraged to match a desirable expected return target (Anderson et al. 2012; Asness
et al. 2012).
When (.) is not the volatility risk measure, the key challenge is to compute the RC
diversification portfolio. Mausser and Romanko (2018), Boudt et al. (2013), Cesarone
and Colucci (2018) offer some solutions for some particular risk measures.
123
Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 299
i (w R) = w
i2 ξi (), ∀ i = 1, . . . , N (73)
−1
where ξ() = (ξ1 (), . . . , ξ N ()) is the vector of eigenvalues of ,
w = E w
with E the eigenvectors matrix of . Meucci et al. (2015) find that when extracting
the risk factors (uncorrelated) using the minimum torsion linear transformation, the
vector of assets’ absolute risk contributions becomes
123
300 G. B. Koumou
6.3 Measurement
N 1−υ
1
υ
ENCBυ (w) = qi (w) 1−υ = (qi (w))υ , (75)
i=1
where
i (w)
qi (w) = . (76)
(w R)
Roncalli (2014) analyzes ENCBυ (w) where (.) is the volatility risk measure (effec-
tive number of correlated bets (ENCB)) and υ = 2 or υ converges to 1.
If qi (w) is defined at the level of risk factors, then ENCBυ (w) becomes the effective
number of uncorrelated bets (ENBυ (w)). Meucci (2009) analyzes ENBυ (w) where
(.) is the volatility risk measure, υ converges to 1 and factors are extracted using
principal component analysis. Meucci et al. (2015) analyze ENBυ (w) where (.) is
the volatility risk measure, υ converges to 1 and factors are extracted using minimum
torsion linear transformation.
7 Conclusion
123
Diversification and portfolio theory: a review 301
Table 3 Summary of the definition, optimality and usefulness and measurement of our four diversification
principles
123
302 G. B. Koumou
Table 3 continued
The core of our review has focused on the four diversification principles, which are
the DNA of the existing portfolio selection rules and asset pricing theories. These four
diversification principles are: law of large numbers, correlation, capital asset pricing
model, and risk contribution diversification principles.
We have reviewed the definition of each diversification principle. We have also
reviewed their optimality with respect to expected utility theory and their usefulness
for a risk averse investor. Finally, we have explored their measurement. Table 3 sum-
marizes our findings.
We hope that this review will help to better understand the concept of diversification
in portfolio theory and to choose portfolio diversification measures more effectively.
Acknowledgements This paper is based on material from the author’s dissertation in the Department of
Economics at Université Laval. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support from FQRSC (Fonds de
Recherche de Québec-Société et Culture) [grant numbers 176559], and Canada Research Chair in Risk
Management. We also thank the anonymous referee for helpful comments.
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Publisher’s Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.
Gilles Boevi Koumou is currently a Lecturer at Université de Québec à Chicoutimi (Canada). Before, he
was a Post-Doctoral research associate at the Canada Research Chair in Risk Management at the HEC
Montréal (Department of Finance). He received his Ph.D. degree in Financial Economics from Université
Laval (Canada). His research interests are: financial decision theory (particularly portfolio theory, includ-
ing asset pricing) and financial machine learning.
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