Double Moving Average Periode Demand

Forecasting Demand 1 1927

Demand = demand awal + (NPMx23) 2 1999
2 digit NPM Terbesar di Kelompok 18 3 1993
4 1949
Demand Awal 5 1933
bln / th 1 2 3 6 1916
1 1513 1483 1543 7 1902
2 1585 1475 1526 8 1911
3 1579 1464 1513 9 1923
4 1535 1449 1495 10 1903
5 1519 1458 1463 11 1897
6 1502 1468 1486 12 1915
7 1488 1493 1524 13 1897
8 1497 1515 1537 14 1889
9 1509 1536 1549 15 1878
10 1489 1551 1581 16 1863
11 1483 1573 1584 17 1872
12 1501 1588 1591 18 1882
19 1907
20 1929
21 1950
22 1965
23 1987
24 2002
25 1957
26 1940
27 1927
28 1909
29 1877
30 1900
31 1938
32 1951
33 1963
34 1995
35 1998
36 2005
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
S't S"t at bt m Peramalan et [et] et2

1973.00
1980.33
1958.33 1970.56 1946.11 -12.22 1
1932.67 1957.11 1908.22 -24.44 1 1934 18 18 324
1917.00 1936.00 1898.00 -19.00 1 1884 -18 18 324
1909.67 1919.78 1899.56 -10.11 1 1879 -32 32 1024
1912.00 1912.89 1911.11 -0.89 1 1890 -33 33 1089
1912.33 1911.33 1913.33 1.00 1 1911 8 8 64
1907.67 1910.67 1904.67 -3.00 1 1915 18 18 324
1905.00 1908.33 1901.67 -3.33 1 1902 -13 13 169
1903.00 1905.22 1900.78 -2.22 1 1899 2 2 4
1900.33 1902.78 1897.89 -2.44 1 1899 10 10 100
1888.00 1897.11 1878.89 -9.11 1 1896 18 18 324
1876.67 1888.33 1865.00 -11.67 1 1870 7 7 49
1871.00 1878.56 1863.44 -7.56 1 1854 -18 18 324
1872.33 1873.33 1871.33 -1.00 1 1856 -26 26 676
1887.00 1876.78 1897.22 10.22 1 1871 -36 36 1296
1906.00 1888.44 1923.56 17.56 1 1908 -21 21 441
1928.67 1907.22 1950.11 21.44 1 1942 -8 8 64
1948.00 1927.56 1968.44 20.44 1 1972 7 7 49
1967.33 1948.00 1986.67 19.33 1 1989 2 2 4
1984.67 1966.67 2002.67 18.00 1 2006 4 4 16
1982.00 1978.00 1986.00 4.00 1 2021 64 64 4096
1966.33 1977.67 1955.00 -11.33 1 1990 50 50 2500
1941.33 1963.22 1919.44 -21.89 1 1944 17 17 289
1925.33 1944.33 1906.33 -19.00 1 1898 -11 11 121
1904.33 1923.67 1885.00 -19.33 1 1888 11 11 121
1895.33 1908.33 1882.33 -13.00 1 1866 -34 34 1156
1905.00 1901.56 1908.44 3.44 1 1870 -68 68 4624
1929.67 1910.00 1949.33 19.67 1 1912 -39 39 1521
1950.67 1928.44 1972.89 22.22 1 1969 6 6 36
1969.67 1950.00 1989.33 19.67 1 1996 1 1 1
1985.33 1968.56 2002.11 16.78 1 2009 11 11 121
1999.33 1984.78 2013.89 14.56 1 2019 14 14 196
1 2029
2 2043
3 2058
4 2073
5 2087
 6 2102
7 2116
8 2131
9 2145
10 2160
11 2174
12 2189
TOTAL
-89 625 21447
PE (%) [PE]
N 31.00
ME -2.87
MAE 20.16
SSE 21447
MSE 691.84
0.01 0.01 SDE 26.28
-0.01 0.01 MPE 0.00
-0.02 0.02 MAPE 0.01
-0.02 0.02
0.00 0.00
0.01 0.01
-0.01 0.01
0.00 0.00
0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01
0.00 0.00
-0.01 0.01
-0.01 0.01
-0.02 0.02
-0.01 0.01
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.03 0.03
0.03 0.03
0.01 0.01
-0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01
-0.02 0.02
-0.04 0.04
-0.02 0.02
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.01 0.01
0.01 0.01
TOTAL
-0.05 0.32 ∑
 Double Eksponesial Smoothing Brown
Periode Demand
Forecasting Demand
Demand = demand awal + (NPMx23) 1 1927
2 digit NPM Terbesar di Kelompok 18 2 1999
3 1993
Demand Awal 4 1949
bln / th 1 2 3 5 1933
1 1513 1483 1543 6 1916
2 1585 1475 1526 7 1902
3 1579 1464 1513 8 1911
4 1535 1449 1495 9 1923
5 1519 1458 1463 10 1903
6 1502 1468 1486 11 1897
7 1488 1493 1524 12 1915
8 1497 1515 1537 13 1897
9 1509 1536 1549 14 1889
10 1489 1551 1581 15 1878
11 1483 1573 1584 16 1863
12 1501 1588 1591 17 1872
18 1882
19 1907
20 1929
21 1950
22 1965
23 1987
24 2002
25 1957
26 1940
27 1927
28 1909
29 1877
30 1900
31 1938
32 1951
33 1963
34 1995
35 1998
36 2005
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
 α = 0.11
et [et] et2 PE (%)
S't S"t a b m F(t+m)
1927 1927
1935 1928 1941.97 0.87 1
1941 1929 1953.27 1.48 1 1955 25.65 25.65 657.96 0.01
1942 1931 1953.55 1.41 1 1955 24.24 24.24 587.68 0.01
1941 1932 1950.39 1.14 1 1952 20.10 20.10 403.98 0.01
1938 1933 1944.15 0.71 1 1945 12.39 12.39 153.42 0.01
1934 1933 1935.95 0.19 1 1937 4.19 4.19 17.57 0.00
1932 1933 1930.92 -0.11 1 1931 -1.70 1.70 2.88 0.00
1931 1932 1929.18 -0.20 1 1929 -3.49 3.49 12.20 0.00
1928 1932 1923.58 -0.52 1 1924 -7.97 7.97 63.59 0.00
1924 1931 1917.64 -0.83 1 1917 -14.14 14.14 199.95 -0.01
1923 1930 1916.43 -0.86 1 1916 -14.28 14.28 204.04 -0.01
1920 1929 1911.71 -1.08 1 1911 -18.20 18.20 331.37 -0.01
1917 1928 1906.14 -1.34 1 1905 -22.86 22.86 522.63 -0.01
1913 1926 1899.22 -1.67 1 1898 -28.19 28.19 794.91 -0.01
1907 1924 1890.37 -2.08 1 1889 -35.11 35.11 1232.66 -0.02
1903 1922 1884.90 -2.28 1 1883 -38.83 38.83 1507.56 -0.02
1901 1920 1882.49 -2.29 1 1881 -38.54 38.54 1485.17 -0.02
1902 1918 1885.77 -1.97 1 1884 -33.57 33.57 1127.13 -0.02
1905 1916 1893.20 -1.42 1 1892 -24.15 24.15 583.43 -0.01
1910 1915 1903.89 -0.71 1 1904 -11.44 11.44 130.88 -0.01
1916 1915 1916.03 0.03 1 1917 1.53 1.53 2.33 0.00
1924 1916 1930.81 0.89 1 1932 15.63 15.63 244.39 0.01
1932 1918 1946.32 1.74 1 1949 30.89 30.89 954.18 0.02
1935 1920 1949.92 1.85 1 1952 32.04 32.04 1026.47 0.02
1935 1922 1949.32 1.71 1 1952 30.33 30.33 919.89 0.02
1935 1923 1946.04 1.42 1 1948 24.91 24.91 620.59 0.01
1932 1924 1939.46 0.95 1 1941 16.96 16.96 287.60 0.01
1926 1924 1927.23 0.19 1 1928 3.77 3.77 14.24 0.00
1923 1924 1921.71 -0.15 1 1922 -2.08 2.08 4.33 0.00
1925 1924 1924.98 0.05 1 1926 1.87 1.87 3.49 0.00
1927 1924 1930.43 0.37 1 1931 6.50 6.50 42.25 0.00
1931 1925 1937.50 0.76 1 1939 13.74 13.74 188.89 0.01
1938 1927 1950.05 1.44 1 1952 25.30 25.30 640.13 0.01
1945 1929 1961.16 2.01 1 1964 35.29 35.29 1245.73 0.02
1952 1931 1971.86 2.51 1 1975 43.78 43.78 1916.95 0.02
1 1975
2 1977
3 1980
4 1982
 5 1985
6 1987
7 1990
8 1992
9 1995
10 1997
11 2000
12 2003
TOTAL
-12 577 18130 0.04
[PE]
N 34.00
ME -0.35
0.01 MAE 16.97
0.01 SSE 18130
0.01 MSE 533.25
0.01 SDE 23.07
0.00 MPE 0.00
0.00 MAPE 0.01
0.00
0.00 α MSE α MSE
0.01 0.1 470.89 0.11 533.25
0.01 0.2 968.15 0.12 596.5
0.01 0.3 1189.82 0.13 652.61
0.01 0.4 1214.55 0.14 703.59
0.01 0.5 1097.11 0.15 759.68
0.02 0.6 921.48 0.16 803.69
0.02 0.7 749.1 0.17 852.4
0.02 0.8 607.58 0.18 889.77
0.02 0.9 501.63 0.19 931.65
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
TAL
0.34 ∑
 Double Eksponesial Smoothing Holt Periode Demand
α = 0.3
Forecasting Demand S't bt
Demand = demand awal + (NPMx23) 1 1927 1927.00 72.00
2 digit NPM Terbesar di Kelompok 18 2 1999 1999.00 72.00
3 1993 2047.60 57.96
Demand Awal 4 1949 2058.59 29.78
bln / th 1 2 3 5 1933 2041.76 1.81
1 1513 1483 1543 6 1916 2005.30 -21.15
2 1585 1475 1526 7 1902 1959.50 -35.94
3 1579 1464 1513 8 1911 1919.80 -38.20
4 1535 1449 1495 9 1923 1894.02 -30.75
5 1519 1458 1463 10 1903 1875.19 -23.60
6 1502 1468 1486 11 1897 1865.22 -15.42
7 1488 1493 1524 12 1915 1869.35 -3.69
8 1497 1515 1537 13 1897 1875.07 1.95
9 1509 1536 1549 14 1889 1880.62 4.11
10 1489 1551 1581 15 1878 1882.71 2.90
11 1483 1573 1584 16 1863 1878.83 -1.17
12 1501 1588 1591 17 1872 1875.96 -2.19
18 1882 1876.24 -0.71
19 1907 1884.97 4.96
20 1929 1901.65 11.99
21 1950 1924.55 18.53
22 1965 1949.66 22.48
23 1987 1976.60 25.15
24 2002 2001.83 25.20
25 1957 2006.02 12.59
26 1940 1995.03 -1.56
27 1927 1973.53 -13.52
28 1909 1944.71 -22.70
29 1877 1908.50 -30.80
30 1900 1884.39 -26.79
31 1938 1881.72 -12.32
32 1951 1893.88 2.37
33 1963 1916.28 14.38
34 1995 1949.96 25.97
35 1998 1982.55 29.94
36 2005 2010.24 28.59
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
 γ = 0.6
et [et] et2 PE (%) [PE]
M Peramalan
N
ME
MAE
SSE
MSE
SDE
MPE
1 1924 13 13 169 0.01 0.01 MAPE
1 1882 -41 41 1681 -0.02 0.02
1 1864 -39 39 1521 -0.02 0.02
1 1852 -45 45 2025 -0.02 0.02
1 1850 -65 65 4225 -0.03 0.03
1 1866 -31 31 961 -0.02 0.02
1 1878 -11 11 121 -0.01 0.01
1 1885 7 7 49 0.00 0.00
1 1886 23 23 529 0.01 0.01
1 1878 6 6 36 0.00 0.00
1 1874 -8 8 64 0.00 0.00
1 1876 -31 31 961 -0.02 0.02
1 1890 -39 39 1521 -0.02 0.02
1 1914 -36 36 1296 -0.02 0.02
1 1944 -21 21 441 -0.01 0.01
1 1973 -14 14 196 -0.01 0.01
1 2002 0 0 0 0.00 0.00
1 2028 71 71 5041 0.04 0.04
1 2019 79 79 6241 0.04 0.04
1 1994 67 67 4489 0.03 0.03
1 1961 52 52 2704 0.03 0.03
1 1923 46 46 2116 0.02 0.02
1 1878 -22 22 484 -0.01 0.01
1 1858 -80 80 6400 -0.04 0.04
1 1870 -81 81 6561 -0.04 0.04
1 1897 -66 66 4356 -0.03 0.03
1 1931 -64 64 4096 -0.03 0.03
1 1976 -22 22 484 -0.01 0.01
1 2013 8 8 64 0.00 0.00
1 2039
2 2068
3 2097
4 2125
 5 2154
6 2182
7 2211
8 2239
9 2268
10 2297
11 2325
12 2354
TOTAL
-344 1088 58832 -0.18 0.56 ∑
 α γ MSE α γ MSE
29.00 0.1 80995.97 0.1 18847.79
-11.86 0.2 18487.55 0.2 4482.379
37.52 0.3 7162.6897 0.3 1991.379
58832 0.4 3583.9655 0.4 1359.655
2028.69 0.5 0.1 2156.76 0.5 0.5 979.7931
45.03 0.6 1451.7931 0.6 729.9655
-0.01 0.7 1084.8276 0.7 578.7241
0.02 0.8 855.96552 0.8 491.4483
0.9 716.24138 0.9 456.9655
0.1 41354.41 0.1 17066.69
0.2 8916.17 0.2 3890.586
0.3 3342.7931 0.3 2028.69
0.4 1715.069 0.4
0.5 0.2 1097.69 0.5 0.6
0.6 791.51724 0.6
0.7 623.68966 0.7
0.8 538.10345 0.8
0.9 467.82759 0.9
0.1 28315.93 0.1
0.2 6247.45 0.2
0.3 2440.4138 0.3
0.4 1359.4138 0.4
0.5 0.3 944.10 0.5 0.7
0.6 728.44828 0.6
0.7 590.13793 0.7
0.8 505.68966 0.8
0.9 451 0.9
0.1 21813.38 0.1
0.2 5163.83 0.2
0.3 2115.1379 0.3
0.4 1319.1034 0.4
0.5 0.4 948.83 0.5 0.8
0.6 730.10 0.6
0.7 586.03448 0.7
0.8 501.58621 0.8
0.9 451.7931 0.9
 Regresi Linier Periode Demand t^2
Forecasting Demand 1 1927 1
Demand = demand awal + (NPMx23) 2 1999 4
2 digit NPM Terbesar di Kelompok 18 3 1993 9
4 1949 16
Demand Awal 5 1933 25
bln / th 1 2 3 6 1916 36
1 1513 1483 1543 7 1902 49
2 1585 1475 1526 8 1911 64
3 1579 1464 1513 9 1923 81
4 1535 1449 1495 10 1903 100
5 1519 1458 1463 11 1897 121
6 1502 1468 1486 12 1915 144
7 1488 1493 1524 13 1897 169
8 1497 1515 1537 14 1889 196
9 1509 1536 1549 15 1878 225
10 1489 1551 1581 16 1863 256
11 1483 1573 1584 17 1872 289
12 1501 1588 1591 18 1882 324
19 1907 361
20 1929 400
21 1950 441
22 1965 484
23 1987 529
24 2002 576
25 1957 625
26 1940 676
27 1927 729
28 1909 784
29 1877 841
30 1900 900
31 1938 961
32 1951 1024
33 1963 1089
34 1995 1156
35 1998 1225
36 2005 1296
37
38
39 a
40 b
41
 42
43
44
45
46
47
48
TOTAL
1176 69549 16206
 dt F=a+bt Forecast et [et] et2 PE (%) [PE]
1927 3774.86 3775 1848 1848 3415104 0.96 0.96
3998 3716.66 3717 1718 1718 2951524 0.86 0.86
5979 3658.46 3659 1666 1666 2775556 0.84 0.84
7796 3600.26 3601 1652 1652 2729104 0.85 0.85
9665 3542.07 3543 1610 1610 2592100 0.83 0.83
11496 3483.87 3484 1568 1568 2458624 0.82 0.82
13314 3425.67 3426 1524 1524 2322576 0.80 0.80
15288 3367.47 3368 1457 1457 2122849 0.76 0.76
17307 3309.27 3310 1387 1387 1923769 0.72 0.72
19030 3251.08 3252 1349 1349 1819801 0.71 0.71
20867 3192.88 3193 1296 1296 1679616 0.68 0.68
22980 3134.68 3135 1220 1220 1488400 0.64 0.64
24661 3076.48 3077 1180 1180 1392400 0.62 0.62
26446 3018.28 3019 1130 1130 1276900 0.60 0.60
28170 2960.08 2961 1083 1083 1172889 0.58 0.58
29808 2901.89 2902 1039 1039 1079521 0.56 0.56
31824 2843.69 2844 972 972 944784 0.52 0.52
33876 2785.49 2786 904 904 817216 0.48 0.48
36233 2727.29 2728 821 821 674041 0.43 0.43
38580 2669.09 2670 741 741 549081 0.38 0.38
40950 2610.90 2611 661 661 436921 0.34 0.34
43230 2552.70 2553 588 588 345744 0.30 0.30
45701 2494.50 2495 508 508 258064 0.26 0.26
48048 2436.30 2437 435 435 189225 0.22 0.22
48925 2378.10 2379 422 422 178084 0.22 0.22
50440 2319.90 2320 380 380 144400 0.20 0.20
52029 2261.71 2262 335 335 112225 0.17 0.17
53452 2203.51 2204 295 295 87025 0.15 0.15
54433 2145.31 2146 269 269 72361 0.14 0.14
57000 2087.11 2088 188 188 35344 0.10 0.10
60078 2028.91 2029 91 91 8281 0.05 0.05
62432 1970.72 1971 20 20 400 0.01 0.01
64779 1912.52 1913 -50 50 2500 -0.03 0.03
67830 1854.32 1855 -140 140 19600 -0.07 0.07
69930 1796.12 1797 -201 201 40401 -0.10 0.10
72180 1737.92 1738 -267 267 71289 -0.13 0.13
1679.72 1680
1621.53 1622
3833.05673120216 1563.33 1564
-58.1981652408825 1505.13 1506
1446.93 1447
 1388.73 1389
1330.54 1331
1272.34 1273
1214.14 1215
1155.94 1156
1097.74 1098
1039.54 1040
TOTAL TOTAL
1290682 ∑ 29699 31015 38187719 15 16
N 36.00
ME 824.97
MAE 861.53
SSE 38187719
MSE 1060769.97
SDE 1029.94
MPE 0.43
MAPE 0.45
∑