Forecasting The Supply of Human Resources

Forecasting the Supply of
Human Resources
Process Of Human Resources Planning
HR Supply Forecasting Introduction -
 Human Resource supply forecasting is the process of estimating availability of human resource followed after
demand for testing of human resource.
 Supply forecasting means to make an estimation of supply of human resources taking into consideration the analysis
of current human resources inventory and future availability.
 For forecasting supply of human resource we need to consider internal and external supply.
• Internal supply of human resource available by way of transfers, promotions, retired employees & recall of laid-
off employees, etc.
• Source of external supply of human resource is availability of Laboure force in the market and new recruitment.
EXTERNAL FACTORS AFFECTING HR SUPPLY FORECASTING -
External supply of human resource depends on some factors mentioned below.

 Supply and demand of jobs.
 literacy rate of nation.
 rate of population
 industry and expected growth rate and levels
 technological development.
 compensation system based on education, experience, skill and age.
INTERNAL FACTORS AFFECTING HR SUPPLY FORECASTING -
Internal supply of human resource depends on some factors mentioned below.
 Organizational features (e.g., staffing capabilities).
 Productivity - rates of productivity, productivity changes.
 Rates of promotion, demotion, transfer and Turnover.
IMPORTANCE OF HR SUPPLY FORECASTING -
 Estimating the net human resource requirements.

 Prepare the action plan for redeployment, redundancy /retrenchment.
 Organizing redeployment programs .
 Organizing redundancy /retrenchment programs.
 Forecast future from all the sources .
Supply Forecasting Methods:

 Trend analysis
 Competency model
 Replacement Charts
 Staffing table
 Succession Planning
 Flow Modeling/Markov Analysis
1. Trend analysis
 Trend analysis involves collecting and evaluating data to identify patterns of information that might impact the
future.
 By examining the trends of the past, the HR department can predict the effect of the same activity on the future of
the organization, because it is assumed that these patterns will remain stable.
 A method of forecasting that assumes past trends and ratios in employee movement are stable and indicative of
future trends and ratios in employee movement.
 One of the simplest methods of forecasting future HR supply.
 For example, an organization reviewing historical data may realize that every year, approximately five percent of
their staff retire, six percent resign, and three percent are dismissed.
 Using a simple trend analysis, future HR supply forecasts can be established by assuming an average reduction in
internal HR supply of 14 percent per year.
2. Competency model
 Competencies are behaviors that encompass the knowledge, skills,
and attitudes(ksa) required for successful performance.
 Competency modeling is the activity of determining the specific
competencies that are characteristic of high performance and success
in a given job..
 A future-oriented model that first reviews competencies that are
aligned with an organization’s mission, vision, and strategy, and then
aims to identify an ideal workforce in terms of these competencies .
 Skills/competency models focus on matching the right skills or
competencies needed for each job with the skills available within the
organization.
3. Replacement chart
 A chart used to estimate vacancies in higher level jobs and identify how potential HR supply can fill these vacancies
via internal movements from lower levels jobs.
 Replacement charts provide identification of potential replacements for vacancies within an organization.
 A comprehensive replacement chart will include information regarding possible replacements for vertical or
horizontal movement.
 Generally, a replacement chart includes information about employees’ performance, readiness to fill the position,
and education.
4. Staffing table
 A clear graphical view of all organizational jobs and the current number of employees at each job.
 Staffing tables are graphic representations of all organizational jobs, along with the numbers of employees currently
occupying those jobs and future (monthly or yearly) employment requirements, which can be derived from demand
forecasts.
 It presents a simple visual understanding of an organization’s staffing level within each department and the
organization as a whole, in an effort to help understand the combination of employees that make up an
organization’s internal workforce.
 This information is useful in evaluating staffing levels by department, branch, or project; the types of staff at each
level; and the combination of staff in all categories.
5. Succession Planning
 Determining the internal Laboure supply calls for a detailed analysis of how many people are currently in various job
categories or have specific skills within the organization.
 The planner then modifies this analysis to reflect changes expected in the near future as a result of retirements,
promotions, transfers, voluntary turnover, and terminations.
6. Markov analysis
 Analysis that helps to predict internal employee movement from one year to another by identifying percentages of
employees who remain in their jobs, get promoted or demoted, transfer, and exit out of the organization
 To help predict internal employee movement from one year to another by identifying percentages of employees who
remain in their jobs, get promoted or demoted, transfer, and exit out of the organization.
 By tracking and predicting employment movement within an organization, the Markov analysis allows for the
development of a transition matrix to forecast internal Laboure supply.
 Markov Analysis is the statistical technique used in forecasting the future behavior of a variable or system whose
current state or behavior does not depend on its state or behavior at any time in the past in other words, it is random.
 The technique is named after Russian mathematician Andrei Andreyevich Markov.
 A transition matrix, or Markov matrix, can be used to model the internal flow of human resources.
 These matrices simply show as probabilities the average rate of historical movement from one job to another.
 To determine the probabilities of job incumbents remaining in their jobs for the forecasting period.
Example -
There is a 20% probability of being gone in 12 months, a 0% probability of promotion to manager, a 15% probability of
promotion to supervisor, and a 65% probability of being a line worker this time next year. Such transition matrices form
the bases for computer simulations of the internal flow of people through a large organization over time.

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EXTERNAL FACTORS AFFECTING HR SUPPLY FORECASTING -

External supply of human resource depends on some factors mentioned below.

 Estimating the net human resource requirements.

Supply Forecasting Methods:

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