Risk mitigation in Microfinance:

The need for microequity

Arvind Ashta
Banque Populaire Chair in Microfinance
Burgundy School of Business
[email protected]

Saleh Khan
Manager,
PwC Luxemburg
[email protected]

European Microfinance Week, Luxemburg, Nov 14-16, 2012

 Khan & Ashta (2013 forthcoming)

Risks in Microfinance
Financial Risks Operational Risks Strategic Risks
Credit Risks Transaction Risks Governance Risks
Transaction Human Capacity Ineffective Oversight
Portfolio Information Technology Corporate Governance
Product Development Back Office Operations Management Quality
Interest Rates Mission Drift
Strategy
Ownership
Liquidity Risks Fraud / Integrity Risks Reputation Risks
Profitability Staff perpetrated fraud Undeliverable Social
Liquidity Expectations
Lack of Funding Transparency
Excess Funding
Market Risks Legal & Compliance Risks External Business Risks
Interest Rate Inappropriate Competition
Foreign Exchange Regulation Macroeconomic Trends
Investment Portfolio Political Interference
 Most research in microfinance focuses
on credit risk
Risk Mitigation Recommendation Source
(Al-Azzam et al., 2011; Armendàriz et al.,
Credit risk Peer monitoring, group pressure, and social ties reduce delinquency
2010; Sharma et al., 1997)
(Armendàriz et al., 2010; Vogelgesang,
Credit risk Frequent repayments
2003)
Credit risk Public repayments (Armendàriz et al., 2010)
Credit risk Choose more religious borrowers (Al-Azzam et al., 2011)
Credit risk Provide loans for productive purposes (Vogelgesang, 2003)
Credit risk Go to rural areas (better group cohesion) (Ahlin et al., 2011)
Credit risk Disband older groups (as group age increases, repayment decreases) (Godquin, 2004)
(Armendàriz et al., 2010; Constantinou et
Dynamic incentives (people who repay should be able to get new
Credit risk al., 2011; Patten et al., 2001; Sharma et
loans), long term association
al., 1997)
(Armendàriz et al., 2010; Vogelgesang,
Credit risk Ensure that first repayments are not late, threaten to stop lending
2003)
Credit risk Do not increase loan sizes without appropriate screening (Godquin, 2004; Sharma et al., 1997)
The provision of nonfinancial services (access to health and education)
Credit risk (Godquin, 2004; Sharma et al., 1997)
has a positive impact on repayment performance
(Constantinou et al., 2011; McIntosh et
Credit risk need for credit bureau
al., 2005)
(Constantinou et al., 2011; Khan, 2011;
Credit risk Better information systems based on latest technologies
Quadri et al., 2011)
Credit risk Loan products should be tailored to client's cash flow (Patten et al., 2001)
Rescheduling of delinquent loans where the issues motivating
Credit risk (Constantinou et al., 2011)
delinquency could be resolved
Khan & Ashta (2013 forthcoming)
 Other risks are less researched
Risk Mitigation Recommendation Source
Product risk Great price differentials associated with risk (Constantinou et al., 2011)
Liquidity risk Offer savings products (Constantinou et al., 2011;
Patten et al., 2001; Paxton et
al., 2011)
Market risk MFIs should lend to entrepreneurs in domestic demand based (Patten et al., 2001)
industries
Portfolio risk Diversify activity sectors within groups (Sharma et al., 1997)
Market risk MFI activity should be into poor, unserved areas or rural areas, (McIntosh et al., 2005; Patten
even richer customers, especially in saturated markets et al., 2001; Vogelgesang, 2003)
Portfolio risk Diversify loan products (Constantinou et al., 2011)
Transaction risk Better educated staff, more training (Constantinou et al., 2011)
Fraud Refocus incentives on collections (Constantinou et al., 2011)
Legal risk Well thought out regulation reduces risk (Vogelgesang, 2003)
Reputation risk Have to collect, even reschedule to avoid contagion (Vogelgesang, 2003)
External Business Risk Go to countries which are not too poor and not too rich (Ahlin et al., 2011)
External Business Risk Governments should develop a deeper financial sector (Ahlin et al., 2011)
External Business Risk Governments could increase telecommunication access for (Al-Azzam et al., 2011)
borrowers
External Business Risk Financially self-sufficient MFIs should co-exist with their (McIntosh et al., 2005)
subsidized counterparts, provided that these subsidies are
carefully restricted to the poorest borrowers.

Khan & Ashta (2013 forthcoming)

 In the top three of Bangladesh
20% PAR > 30d 6% Write Off Ratio

5%
ASA
15%
ASA 4% BRAC
BRAC
Grameen Grameen
10% 3%

2%
5%
1%

0% 0%

Figure 3: Evolution of PAR > 30d for the top three Figure 4: Write Off Ratios (WoR) for the top three MFIs in
MFIs in Bangladesh (Source: MIX Market) Bangladesh (Source: MIX Market)
Khan & Ashta (2013 forthcoming)
 Khan & Ashta (2013 forthcoming)

Lessons from ASA in risk mitigation

Financial Risks Operational Risks Strategic Risks
Credit Risks Transaction Risks Governance Risks
• Engaging in group lending • Collecting in group meetings • Deputing experience staff members
• Building a strong relationship with • Conducting periodic review of to run its overseas operations
clients client’s passbooks • Ensuring a client service focus
• Verifying each and every borrower • Computerized record keeping • Fostering close relationships with
• Standardizing products clients and by earning their trust
• Regular reporting of key results

Liquidity Risks Fraud / Integrity Risks Reputation Risks

• Standardizing products • ‘Rotating’ loan officers every six • Expanding the board of mature
• Establishing strict repayment months entities to include persons
timelines • Disbursing loans only from the knowledgeable of local markets
• Anticipating savings withdrawals branch office
• Preparing daily fund plans : • Peer based cross checking
• Limiting branches overnight cash • Cashbook duty rotated
holding • Checkbooks are kept with non-
signatories

Market Risks Legal & Compliance Risks External Business Risks

• Continuously market surveillance • Internal and external audits • Keeping track of the ‘macro view’ in
• Local currency borrowing to each operating country: including
minimize currency exposure economic, legal, political, regulatory,
fiscal, etc.
 A black swan event
Enter Socio-political risk

• Andhra Pradesh
• October 2010

• Echos of Compartamos
• Ashta & Bush (2009)
• Ashta & Hudon (2012)

• We decided to investigate:
• Ashta, Khan & Otto (2011)
 Is Indian Microfinance suicide extraordinary?

• Suicides in Microfinance in Andhra Pradesh do not seem to be any greater than the average suicide rate in
India. However, if microfinance borrowers are mostly women, women suicides in Andhra Pradesh are
higher than the average female suicide rates.

Ashta, Khan & Otto 2011

2005
 Time series data on India
• cases of suicides (especially male suicides)
seem to accompany microfinance growth and
penetration.
• Based on time series data from India, “the
correlation between male suicide rates and
the microfinance penetration is positive with
R = 0.60 and a significance level of p = 0.02”,
but no causation is implied.

Ashta, Khan & Otto 2011

 Ashta, Khan & Otto, 2011

Cross-sectional data from India

SuiMale SuiFem SuiMale SuiFem
GNIpCap 0.12 0.21** DivR 0.63*** 0.46***
GNIppp 0.07 0.10 LabMale -0.37*** -0.18*
UnemplFem -0.23* -0.21 LabFem 0.12 0.17
UnemplMale -0.09 -0.09 MFIs -0.16 0.01
Unempl -0.16 -0.18 Borr -0.10 0.11
MortFem 0.09 0.22* Pop -0.02 0.14
MortMale 0.25** 0.28** PovR -0.25 -0.28
LitFem 0.11 -0.17 PovU -0.11 -0.25
LitMale 0.12 -0.10 PovN -0.32** -0.21
Lit 0.12 -0.14 Pov1 -0.16 0.19
LitFemY 0.01 -0.18 Pov2 -0.23 0.12
LitMaleY 0.06 -0.14 Poor -0.06 0.11
LitY 0.04 -0.16 PovRate -0.43*** -0.35**
LEFem 0.09 -0.01 BorrPop -0.14 0.00
LEMale -0.10 -0.08 BorrPoor 0.08 0.12
LE -0.01 -0.04

* significant with p<.1 ** significant with p<.05 *** significant with p<.01
Table 3: Coefficients of correlation with Male and Female Suicide Rates

• We found that “microfinance penetration, based on data from MFIs collected by

Sa-Dhan for the year 2009, has a positive but only weakly significant correlation
with overall suicide rates”.
Is Indian microfinance different?
Institutional characteristics All India
Number of MFIs reporting 1132 to 1146* 88
Personnel 104 287
Number of MFIs 1146 88
Number of active borrowers 10,487 65,008
Percent of women borrowers 63.39% 100.00%
Gross loan portfolio 4,902,526 8,405,779
Average loan balance per borrower 523 144
Number of MFIs 1141 88
Return on assets 1.50% 1.81%
Return on equity 7.27% 10.54%
Yield on gross portfolio (nominal) 27.93% 23.97%
Portfolio at risk > 30 days 4.76% 0.51%
source: http://www.mixmarket.org/mfi/benchmarks/csv
*All 1146 did not provide information for all indicators.

Smaller loans
Lower interest yield
Higher profitability !!! Ashta, Otto & Khan, 2011
 Findings on Suicides & Microfinance
• In short, we found a lot of smoke, no fire, and
wondered what is wrong

• But in any case, it made us think that

borrowers may be stressed

• What can be done?

Normal Business Principles indicate
• A firm needs equity, LT debt and ST debt

• Too little debt means financial leverage is insufficient

• Too much debt reduces the risk coverage ratio

• Are poor borrowers having any equity?

• We need microeqity

• If poor people don't have own money or love money, they

need microangels
 Microangels since 1983:
The CIGALES

10 euros 10 euros
20 euros
BUILDING UP THE SAVINGS
10 euros 20 euros
20 euros 10 euros

Ashta, A., Estapé-Dubreuil, G., Hédou, J.-P. & Bourcieu, S. 2012

Business Models Ashta, A., Estapé-Dubreuil, G., Hédou, J.-P. & Bourcieu, S. 2012

General Partner
Panel A
Venture
Capital
Investor
VC Poor
Poor
Investor
Investment
Poor
Poor
Firm
Investor Fund
Investor

Poor
Business Poor
Poor Panel B
Angel Poor
Firm Business
Angel

Innovative business model

Inve
In the CIGALES stor Poor Panel C
Model, the Inve Inve Poor
stor CIGALES stor Poor CIGALES
investor is inside
Poor
Microen
the Undivided Club Inve Inve
terprise
stor stor
 Ashta, A., Estapé-Dubreuil, G., Hédou, J.-P. & Bourcieu, S. 2012

EQUITY PARTICPATION in PROJECTS

• Attracting entrepreneurs
o Referrals, Meetings,

• Selection of the projects

o Democracy, Unanimity
o Proximity
o only companies/ cooperatives

• Nurturing the enterprise

o Monitoring, Accompanying, Coaching, networking

• Exit: Investment in capital for 5

years
o To get a tax deduction
 But the movment did not grow:
Blockages
Internal ideological Internal structural External Institutional Entrepreneurs not
brakes motivation cage forthcoming

Self-managment ideology Subidies are limited and

5 year commitment
means can't ask for help subject to fads
Too micro financing

Alternative means can't Starting all over again every Low financial literacy in
expect help from 5 years: learning curve France
mainstream
Finding new mebers every Banks are not interested Small projects means don't
Grass-roots vision means five years since efforts are too micro want to create cost of of
communicating locally incorporation
National federation has Delayed gratification is not A person can be member of
chosen to communicate for all only one indivsion
internally to stengthen Fears of secrets being
shared values rather than Individion requires Club cannot invest in auto-
unanimity entreprenueurs revealed
externally
Left wing belief that Takes a year to assemble
entrepreneurs are exploiters enough money to get the
No market for exit
first project… time takes its
Difficutly in accepting high Needtoll on motivation
committed leaders but
financial returns implies Too many complementary Information deficit
such people are in too many
right wing members don't actors confuses the
movements diluting their
join entrepenreur
actions

Ashta, A., Estapé-Dubreuil, G., Hédou, J.-P. & Bourcieu, S. 2012

 We did more detailed research
Estapé-Dubrueil, G., Ashta, A. & Hédou, J-P., 2012

• Profile of microangel • What they put in

• Profile of the project • What they want to get

 Our questions for you
• In France, microenterprise can be companies which take in Equity

Q How do you give microequity to individual entrepreneurs?

Q How can you separate their firm revenue from personal revenue if money is
fungible?
Q What are the simplest corporate forms to implement for illiterate people?

Please write to us:

[email protected]
[email protected]