APF Foresight Competency Model 1.1 1
APF Foresight Competency Model 1.1 1
APF Foresight Competency Model 1.1 1
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ABOUT THE MODEL
The “Professionalization Task Force” of the Association of Professional Futurists recommended a three-
phased approach to promoting the professionalization of foresight. Central to the first “grounding”
phase is the development of a competency model, which is to be followed by work on standards and
then a professional development pathway. This Foresight Competency Model provides a shared view of
what professional futurists consider to be central to carrying out foresight work. This competency model
is based on today’s landscape and will necessarily evolve and be revisited and updated. But for now it
provides a foundation upon which to guide professionalization efforts for foresight.
The task force chose to follow the approach developed US Department of Labor’s Employment and
Training Administration, as it was judged to provide clear guidance and user-friendly templates.* This
approach depicted competencies in layerered tiers using a pyramidal shape. The draft submission of
the model used this pyramid graphic, but this updated final version uses a graphical approach more in
synch with APF design and branding. The circles in the graphic represent competency areas, that is,
the applied skills, knowledge, and abilities that are essential to successful foresight performance.
Tier 2 – Academic Competencies are critical competencies primarily learned in a school setting.
They include cognitive functions and thinking styles. Academic competencies are likely to apply to
all industries and occupations.
Tier 3 – Workplace Competencies represent motives and traits, as well as interpersonal and self-
management styles. They generally are applicable to a large number of occupations and
industries.
Tiers 4 and 5 contain Industry Competencies, which are specific to an industry or industry sector.
Tier 4 – Foresight Technical Competencies represent the knowledge and skills that are common to
all foresight activities. These technical competencies build on, but are more specific than,
competencies represented on lower tiers.
Tier 5 – Foresight Sector Competencies represent broad sectors of foresight activities. Related
*
http://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/
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competencies may be developed by interest groups or communities of practice.
Tiers 6 through 9, represent the specialization that occurs within specific occupations within an
industry. These are yet to be developed in relationship to the work of foresight professionals.
Information on occupational competencies among various workforce domains are available through
O*NET OnLine (http://online.onetcenter.org/).
At the moment, and for the task being completed now, the model is concerned with the roles and
competencies needed by futurists, generally, now and in the short-term future. For the mid- to long-
term future, there will be shifts in how important specific tasks are versus other ones etc., and what we
do and offer – but this will be covered in another work phase.
1. Interpersonal Skills: Displaying skills to work with others from diverse backgrounds.
Demonstrate Insight into Behavior
Interpret accurately the verbal and nonverbal behavior of others
Show insight into the actions and motives of others
Recognize when relationships with others are strained
Assess the abilities and personalities of others
Maintain Open Communication
Maintain open lines of communication with others
Encourage others to share problems, successes, and new ideas
Establish a high degree of trust and credibility with others
Demonstrate honesty and integrity
Work with Diverse People
Demonstrate respect for the opinions, perspectives, customs, and individual differences
of others
Value diversity of people and ideas
Keep an open mind when dealing with a wide-range of people
Consider others’ viewpoints
Develop effective relationships with diverse personalities
Take action to learn about the climate, orientation, needs, and values of other groups,
organizations, or cultures
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Perform work-related duties according to laws, regulations, contract provisions, and
company policies.
Understand that behaving ethically goes beyond what the law requires.
Use company time and property responsibly.
Acting Fairly
Treat others with honesty, fairness, and respect.
Make decisions that are objective and reflect the just treatment of others.
Taking Responsibility
Take responsibility for accomplishing work goals within accepted timeframes.
Be accountable for one’s decisions and actions and for those of one’s group, team, or
department.
4. Adaptability & Flexibility: Displaying the capability to adapt to new, different, or changing
requirements.
Employ Unique Analyses
Generate innovative ideas in complex areas
Integrate seemingly unrelated information to develop creative solutions
Develop innovative methods of obtaining resources when insufficient resources are
available
Entertain New Ideas
Consider new ways of doing things
Seek out the merits of new approaches to work
Embrace new approaches when appropriate
Discard approaches that are no longer working
Be willing to change as the organization evolves
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Deal with Ambiguity
Show tolerance for ambiguous, unstructured situations
Take effective action even without all the necessary facts in hand
Change plans, goals, actions, or priorities to deal with unpredictable or unexpected
events, pressures, situations and job demands
5. Willingness to Learn: Displaying a willingness to learn and apply new knowledge and skills.
Demonstrate an Interest in Learning
Be curious and attentive to identify business opportunities (the environment in which
businesses operate is constantly changing)
Anticipate changes in work demands
Search for and participate in assignments or training that address changing demands
Treat unexpected circumstances as opportunities to learn
Learning Strategies
Set lifelong learning goals
Identify when it is necessary to acquire new knowledge and skills
Pursue opportunities to develop new knowledge, skills, and expertise
Identify Career Interests
Take charge of personal career development by identifying interests, strengths, options,
and new business opportunities
Make insightful career planning decisions based on consideration of others’ feedback and
available opportunities
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Influence others in a variety of situations.
Persuasively present thoughts and ideas.
Gain commitment and ensure support for proposed ideas.
*
From Lumina Foundation, Degree Qualifications Profile
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Integrative Thinking
Frames a complex scientific, social, technological, economic or aesthetic challenge or
problem from the perspectives and literature of at least two academic fields
Proposes a “best approach” to the question or challenge using evidence from those fields.
Applied Skill
Produces, independently or collaboratively, an investigative, creative or practical work that
draws on specific theories, tools and methods from at least two academic fields
Integral Thinking
Explains a problem in science, the arts, society, human services, economic life or technology
from the perspective of at least two academic fields, explains how the methods of inquiry
and research in those disciplines can be brought to bear, judges the likelihood that the
combination of disciplinary perspectives and methods would contribute to the resolution of
the challenge justifies the importance of the challenge in a social or global context.
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Applied Project
Presents a project, paper, performance or other appropriate task linking knowledge and
skills from work, community or research activities with knowledge acquired in academic
disciplines; explains how elements were combined to shape meaning or findings; and shows
the relationship to relevant scholarship.
Action Inquiry
Formulates a question on a topic that addresses more than one academic discipline or
practical setting, locates appropriate evidence that addresses the question, evaluates the
evidence in relation to the problem’s contexts, and articulates conclusions that follow
logically from analysis.
Field-Based Problem-Solving
Completes a field-based assignment in the course of study that employs insights from
others; evaluates a significant question in relation to concepts, methods or assumptions in at
least one academic field; and explains the implications of learning outside the classroom.
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Identify what is missing from current product stream
Search for new ideas for product improvement
Apply innovative new ideas that satisfy the needs of a clearly defined market
Demonstrate new ways of thinking, not merely about what is, but of what might be
Conduct brainstorming and other creativity sessions
Exhibit capacity for imagination, creativity, and empathy
See the Big Picture
Possess broad knowledge and perspective
Piece together seemingly unrelated data to identify patterns and trends to see a bigger
picture
Think expansively by combining ideas in unique ways
Make connections between disparate things to see what others may have missed
Identify the pieces of a system as a whole and the consequences of actions on parts of the
system
3. Planning & Organizing: Planning and prioritizing work to manage time effectively and
accomplish assigned tasks.
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Planning
Approach work in a methodical manner
Develop business plans to map out approaches to new ventures
Schedule tasks so that work is completed on time
Keep track of details to ensure work is performed accurately and completely
Prioritizing
Prioritize various competing tasks
Perform tasks quickly and efficiently according to their urgency
Find new ways of organizing or planning work to accomplish work more efficiently
Allocating Resources
Estimate resources needed for project completion
Allocate time and resources effectively
Keep all parties informed of progress and relevant changes to project timelines
Anticipating Obstacles
Anticipate obstacles to project completion
Develop contingency plans to address obstacles
Take necessary corrective action when projects go off-track
4. Problem Solving & Decision Making: Applying critical-thinking skills to solve problems by
generating, evaluating, and implementing solutions.
Identifying the Problem
Anticipate concerns before they arise
Recognize the existence of a problem
Deal with problems and challenges in order of priority
Identify the nature of the problem by analyzing its component parts
Recall previously learned information that is relevant to the problem
Locating, Gathering, and Organizing Relevant Information
Use all available reference systems to locate information relevant to the problem
Collect and analyze data
Examine information obtained to gain a better understanding of the problem
Recognize important gaps in existing information
Takes steps to obtain information to eliminate gaps
Generating Alternatives
Integrate previously learned and externally obtained information to generate a variety of
high-quality alternative approaches to the problem
Identify the strengths and weaknesses, the costs and benefits, and the short- and long-
term consequences of different approaches
Choosing and Implementing a Solution
Evaluate numerous potential solutions
Make difficult decisions even in the absence of solid data or in ambiguous situations
Commit to a solution in a timely manner
Develop a realistic approach for implementing the chosen solution
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Observe the outcomes of implementing the solution
Assess the need for alternative approaches
Identify lessons learned
6. Systems Thinking: Seeing the connections between things (structure) and explaining
conditions (behavior) using those connections
Sees/perceives/interprets situations in terms of a systems, rather than linear world view
Considers interrelationships to help identify patterns of change
Applies systems methodology to understand, diagnose, formulate and test specific process-
based solutions.
1. Framing: Scoping the project, defining the focal issue and current conditions
Scoping
Defining and bounding the topic, specifying the geography and timeframe.
Mapping
Locating the topic in its context, system, assumptions and world view; including key drivers
of change; this may include a visual map as well as categories for initial research.
Retrospecting
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Understanding the topic or systems history, particularly back to the last major
discontinuity.
Assessing
Diagnosing audience/client knowledge identifying stakeholders, modes of learning, and
receptivity; preparing engagement processes and presentations appropriately.
2. Scanning: Exploring signals of change or indicators of the futures
Exploring
Finding signals of change that affect the topic or system, aka “scanning hits.”
Collecting
Gathering the scanning hits into a structured inventory.
Analyzing
Evaluating the scanning hits using agreed-upon criteria.
3. Futuring: Identifying a baseline and alternative futures
Letting Go
Suspending pre-conceived notions of the future to challenge assumptions in order to see
the future with fresh eyes.
Converging
Forecasting a baseline future or “most likely” scenario from current trends, issues and
plans, along with its assumptions and associated risk.
Diverging
Generating alternative futures or scenarios based on wildcards, ideas, systematically
derived alternative projections and images built around key drivers and uncertainties,
challenges, opportunities and aspirations.
4. Visioning: Developing and committing to a preferred future
Sensemaking
Considering the implications suggested by past, present and alternative futures.
Committing
Making a choice of one’s strategic direction/preferred future and committing to act on it.
Goal-Setting
Setting specific, tangible goals to create a preferred future.
Facilitating processes to help a group agree on shared goals to create a preferred future
Developing stretch targets, or audacious goals, to achieve the vision.
5. Designing: Developing prototypes, offerings or artifacts to achieve the vision and goals
Facilitating
Guiding interpersonal interactions to achieve desired foresight results.
Prototyping
Creating activities or artifacts to explore baseline and alternative futures and visions.
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6. Adapting: Enabling organizations to generate options to alternatives futures
Strategizing
Reflecting on paths one could take over time, weighing their pros and cons.
Bridging goals and the present state with strategies, options, tactics, and actions.
Communicating alternative futures, vision, goals and strategic options to capture
stakeholder attention and influence their actions.
Monitoring indicators or precursors to indicate how uncertainty is resolving to move
toward specific scenarios.
Refreshing the process every few years or as needed.
Consulting Futurist: Work externally for multiple stakeholders providing foresight services
Senior Level
Managing client relationships and experiences
Scoping , designing, and overseeing a portfolio of consulting projects
Supporting and contributing to business development
Developing new approaches, methods and capacity building
Developing and coordinating team or company budgets
Cultivating managing, coaching, and training of team
Communicating and facilitating interactions with clients and the public
Identifying and lobbying for crucial topics to be considered in projects and overall futures
discourse
Associate Level
Assist in developing new tools, processes, and systems
Leading, conducting, managing, analyzing research for reports, presentations, and projects
Facilitating group processes/workshops
Developing event and workshop support materials: cards, posters, brochures, flyers, etc.
Assist in new business development
Developing and coordinating project budgets and project or research deliverables
Communicating project and research outcomes
Entry Level
Scanning and trend analysis
Finding, gathering, curating and analyzing information
Contributing to colleague’s research, writing, and presenting
Contributing to social media activity, newsletters, and other outreach activities
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Organizational Futurist: Work inside a single organization to help them be more successful by
using foresight services
Senior Level
Planning, developing and implementing a foresight program
Leading foresight efforts, including coordinating main research activities, horizon scanning,
trend spotting, emerging issues, analysis, scenario development, white papers, issue briefs,
in-depth reports, and other explorations.
Developing a theoretical framework and perspective to aid understanding of trends and
developments and translating into opportunities
Supporting and contributing to organizational development
Developing new approaches, methods and capacity building
Developing and coordinating team / unit budgets
Cultivating managing, coaching, and training of team
Communicating and facilitating interactions with clients and the public
Associate Level
Process and Tool Development
Developing and managing systems, tools, and processes for foresight services
Designing and facilitating workshops and foresight programs
Content development
Developing a foresight framework, of trends, scenarios and future-relevant content
Leading trends analysis, such as signal spotting, developing and articulating scenario, and
creating visions and developing strategy
Project management
Sourcing, screening, developing, and structuring project proposals
Developing project plans and overseeing project planning, investment, logistics, and analysis
Community-building
Building internal and external relationships to create, nurture and grow a community of
thought leaders relevant to the organization
Managing stakeholders
Communicate results effectively to enable robust and effective decision-making
Entry Level
Monitoring, assessing and communicating developments in external environment
Identifying trends and searching for anomalies
Monitoring external environment to gain deep expertise in new foresight techniques,
information sources, and vendors
Scanning, filtering, evaluating and reporting on cutting-edge developments to highlight
opportunities and threats
Academic futurist: Help others learn the theory and practice of foresight and conduct research to
improve that theory and practice
Demonstrating understanding and an ability to teach key concepts and tools of foresight
Developing expertise within an academic discipline with a futures focus
Developing and leading research on futures-relevant topics and publishing results
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Developing cross-disciplinary teams and approaches for research
Raising awareness and building foresight capacity with communities
Resources Reviewed
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predicting and how to make the strategic change in business and public policy. NY: CRC Press.
Bishop, P. & Hines, A. (2012). Teaching about the Future: The Basics of Foresight Education. Houndmills,
UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
Bishop, P & Dator, J. (2013, June 27). A foresight curriculum, version 0.5, Bucharest, Romania: The
University Foresight Network.
Bol, E. et al, (2014). Building the future industry. Report from La Futura 2014. Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Cousin, Glynis (ND). An introduction to threshold concepts, Retrieved from
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Assembly. Retrieved from http://www.jaygary.com/foresightcareers14.pdf
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Millennium Project.
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