Industrial Organization 07: Strategic Behaviors, Entry, Exit
Industrial Organization 07: Strategic Behaviors, Entry, Exit
Industrial Organization 07: Strategic Behaviors, Entry, Exit
Marc Bourreau
Telecom ParisTech
For examples, Bain (1951) provides the profits margin for different sectors for
the years 1935-1936:
Cigarettes: 14.4%
Cement: 5.4%
Leather: 0.8%
Dressmaking: 16%
Aeronautics: 20.8%
Typewriter: 15.8%
...
Entry Barriers
→ Attali report (2008): "Freely grant, following a two year attribution process, a
nontransferable license to all enquirers registered at the end of 2007."
Bain (1956) suggests also that active firms may modify their behavior when
they face a threat of entry.
blockaded entry
Active firms behave as if there were no threat of entry.
Deterred entry
The entry cannot be blocked. Active firms modify their behavior to prevent
competitors’ entry.
Accommodated entry
Active firms find it more profitable to let competitors enter rather than imple-
menting entry barriers (and modify their behavior to account for entry).
Other strategies will affect the type of behavior in case of entry and therefore
the (gross) expected profit.
Excess capacity
Reputation of being a "tough" competitor
...
We have r
? S
n = (a − c) −1
F
For example, when we compare the same industries in France, Germany and
Belgium, we find that the concentration coefficients C4 are:
Comparable in France and in Germany
More important in Belgium than in France
We have r
? S
n = (a − c) −1
F
If we define more broadly the MES, such as the average cost equals d, then
F
MES =
d−c
Therefore, the number of active firms decreases when the MES increases.
Π1 (K1 , K2 ) = K1 (1 − K1 − K2 )
and
Π2 (K1 , K2 ) = K2 (1 − K1 − K2 )
We have Πij < 0 and Πiij < 0.
We focus on the incentive for firm 1 to prevent firm 2 from entering the market.
1 − K1
K2 = R2 (K1 ) =
2
so firm 1 maximizes
1 − K1
Π1 = K1 1 − K1 −
2
Nash Equilibrium
We have: K1? = 1/2, K2? = 1/4, Π?1 = 1/8 and Π?2 = 1/16.
Sequential game
We have: K1? = 1/2, K2? = 1/4, Π?1 = 1/8 and ¶?2 = 1/16.
vs.
Simultaneous game
We have: K1? = 1/3, K2? = 1/3, Π?1 = 1/9 and Π?2 = 1/9.
Importance of Commitment
In the sequential game, after firm 2 has chosen its level of capital (K2 = 1/4),
firms 1 would benefit from reducing its own capacity!
1 − 1/4 3
R1 (1/4) = = < 1/2.
2 8
→ If firm 1 could reduce its level of capital, it will do it.
But expecting this reaction, firm 2 would choose to increase its level of capital.
Here: the dissuation by excess capacity is credible if the costs of capacity are
high and sunk.
K2 (1 − K1 − K2 ) − f si K2 > 0
(
Π (K1 , K2 ) =
2
0 si K2 = 0
If f < 1/16 and if firms 1 and 2 choose the same levels of capacity as in the
sequential game, firm 2 enters:
1 1 1
Π2 , = −f >0
2 4 16
But firms 1 can have incentives to increase its level of capacity above 1/2 to
prevent firm 2 from entering.
max K2 (1 − K1 − K2 ) − f ≤ 0
K2
with p
K1 ≥ K1d (f ) = 1 − 2 f > 1/2
If K1d (f ) ≤ K1m = 1/2, we say that entry is blockaded (this is the case if f > 1/16).
Survey on product managers in 1988: 52% have declared that entry deterrence
strategies were as or more important as production decisions or marketing
strategies.
How to classify these entry deterrence strategies? Which strategy to use for
which case?
A Taxonomy
Without entry
Π1 = Πm
1
(K1 , xm
1
(K1 )) and Π2 = 0.
With entry
Π1 = Π1 (K1 , x1 , x2 ) and Π2 = Π2 (K1 , x1 , x2 ).
A Taxonomy
We denote x∗1 (K1 )andx∗2 (K1 ) the actions’ equilibrium payoffs at stage 2.
Entry Deterrence
We can ignore the effect of K1 on Π2 over the second period (envelope theorem):
∂Π2
=0
∂x2
therefore
∗ ∗
dΠ2 ∂Π2 ∂Π2 dx1 ∂Π2 dx2
= + +
dK1 ∂K1 ∂x1 dK1 ∂x2 dK1
|{z} | {z } | {z }
Direct effect Strategic effect =0
Entry Deterrence
Two possibilities:
The investment makes firm 1 tougher if dΠ2 /dK1 < 0
The investment makes firm 1 softer if dΠ2 /dK1 > 0
Entry Accommodation
If we ignore the direct effect, firm 1 should increase K1 if the strategic effect is
positive and decrease K1 otherwise.
We can show that the sign of the strategic effect is equal to:
The Taxonomy
Entry deterrence
If the investment makes firm 1 tougher: top dog
If the investment makes firm 1 softer: lean and hungry look
Entry accommodation
If period 2 strategies are strategic substitutes: same strategies as for deter-
rence
If period 2 strategies are strategic complements: puppy dog for "tough"
and fat cat for "soft"
The Taxonomy
The Taxonomy
Puppy Dog: Don’t enter and Sony won’t enter (The investment will make us
tougher and Sony will react TOUGHER).
Top Dog: Enter by building a massive factory, Sony will stay out of the market.
Commitment to be TOUGH to make its rival SOFT.
Fat Cat: Enter by building a small factory, Sony won’t feel threatened. Com-
mitment to be SOFT to also make its rival SOFT.
Lean and Hungry Look: Stay out of the market. But the commitment to be
SOFT makes the rival TOUGHER.
Preemption
Preemption
Strategy consisting in getting ahead of its potential competitors (on new mar-
kets, new technologies...) to maintain its dominant position.
To preempt the retail high speed broadband market for a incumbent telecom-
munication operator?
Is Preemption Rational?
A model:
An active firm (1) is in monopoly to produce product A
A new market (product B): entry with an entry cost F
Products A and B are imperfect substitutes
A potential entrant, firm 2
Firm 1 chooses first to enter or not on market B
Firm 2 observes firm 1’s choice and then decides whether to enter
Hypotheses:
Market profitable only for one of the two firms
It is profitable for firm B to enter alone in market 2
Efficiency effect: monopoly profit in A and B ≥ duopoly profits in A and B
Is Preemption Rational?
Monopoly persistence
Firm 1 preempts the new market and firm 2 stays outside.
In the previous example, firms 1 plays first. We give it the possibility to preempt
the market.
Result
The active firm enters the new market just before the new entrant does.
Preemption Credibility
Judd (1985) highlights that preemption is credible only if the cost of exit is high.
Predation
If a firm cannot prevent its competitors from entering, it can nevertheless seek
to exclude them.
Predatory pricing
When a firm set its prices to a level implying a profit loss in the short-term to
get rid of its competitors and then get higher long-term profits.
Firms which face a predation strategy should never leave the market.
Two firms: an active firm (firm I) and a potential entrant (firm E)
Let’s consider a two periods game
At the first stage: the entrant enters the market
The active firm can either:
Set a predatory price:, π1I = π1E = −L < 0
Set an accommodating price: π1I = π1E = πD > 0
After the choice of firm I pricing strategy, firm E decides to remain on the
market or to exit
If it exits the market, firm I get a monopoly profit πM in period 2
Otherwise, the same interaction happens in period 2
Second period
If firm E did not exit, firm I should accommodate its competitor, so π2I = π2E =
πD .
First period
If firm I sets a predatory price, should firm E exit the market?
It knows that firm I would be accommodating in period 2 if it enters
Therefore, it decides to enter as long as L < πD , for example by borrowing
money to a bank to cover its losses in period 1
Let’s assume that firm E does not get a loan with the probability ρ > 0 (it goes
bankrupt).
Chain-store paradox
The active firm will accommodate entry on both markets.
This result comes from the fact that the entrants know that the firm will be
accommodating at the last period.
"Modern" version of the limit pricing theory (Milgrom and Roberts model,
1982):
A potential entrant should decide whether to enter a market
The active firm is "weak" (high cost) or "strong" (low costs)
If it is weak, entry is profitable
If it is strong, entry is not profitable
But the entrant does not know of which type is the active firm
If the "weak" and "strong" firms set different prices, the entrant may know if
the active firm is "strong" by observing its price (a "strong" active firm sets a
low price. A "weak" active firm sets its monopoly price).
But a "weak" firm could bluff by setting the same price as a "strong" firm. In
this case, the entrant cannot know if the active firm is "weak" or "strong".
Example: Tetra-Pack
Public Policy
Public Policy
Two conditions:
Pricing below costs
Predation is rational: the firm could in the long-term reasonably recoup
its losses due to the transitory price war.
Forbidden by the Article 86 of the Roma Treaty (now 82) which sanctions
the abuse of dominant position
A firm which does not have market power (in particular, market share <
40%) would probably not be condemned
Take-Aways (1)
Take-Aways (2)