Figure 1.

1 Global growth prospects

1.1.A. Daily new COVID-19 cases
1.1.B. Global growth
1.1.C. Change in global activity indicators in 2020
1.1.D. Commodity price changes since January 2020
1.1.E. Global policy rates
1.1.F. Share of economies in recession, 1871-2021
Figure 1.2 Global risks and policy challenges
1.2.A. Level of output relative to January projections
1.2.B. Growth in advanced economies and EMDEs
1.2.C. Government and non-financial corporate debt
1.2.D. EMDE discretionary fiscal support measures in 2020, by debt levels
1.2.E. Health indicators in 2017
1.2.F. Cumulative EMDE potential output response after recessions
Figure 1.3 Advanced economies
1.3.A. Daily new cases and stringency index
1.3.B. Consumer confidence in major advanced economies
Figure 1.4 United States
1.4.A. Reduction in hours worked
1.4.B. TSA passenger traffic
1.4.C. Industrial production and retail sales
1.4.D. U.S. oil prices and oil structures investment
Figure 1.5 Euro Area
1.5.A. Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases and mitigation measures across Euro Area m
1.5.B. Google mobility trends for retail and recreation
1.5.C. Share of tourism in GDP in 2019
1.5.D. Change in continuing unemployment insurance claims
Figure 1.6 China
1.6.A. Purchasing Managers’ Index
1.6.B. Congestion delay index, 100-city average
1.6.C. Commercial real estate sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities
1.6.D. Industrial profits and revenue
Figure 1.7 Global trade
1.7.A. Container shipping and new export orders
1.7.B. Trade growth
1.7.C. GDP elasticity of global trade
1.7.D. Global manufacturing and services PMI
1.7.E. Monthly tourist arrivals as a share of average since 2015
1.7.F. Subcomponents of the global manufacturing PMI
Figure 1.8 Global finance
1.8.A. Global stock market
1.8.B. Stock market volatility indexes
1.8.C. EMDE portfolio flows
1.8.D. Spreads on EMDE debt
1.8.E. EMDE exchange rates
1.8.F. Projected change in FDI inflows to EMDEs, by region
Figure 1.9 Commodity markets
1.9.A. Commodity price changes since January 2020
1.9.B. Brent crude oil price
1.9.C. Oil prices during past episodes of stress
1.9.D. Years with the largest declines in oil demand
Figure 1.10 EMDE recent developments
1.10.A. Stringency measures and COVID-19 cases in EMDEs and LICs
1.10.B. Change in remittance inflows in 2020, by EMDE region
1.10.C. Health care spending in EMDEs and LICs in 2016
1.10.D. Share of economies experiencing annual contractions in activity
1.10.E. Change in activity indicators in EMDEs and LICs
1.10.F. LIC sovereign borrowing costs
res across Euro Area member countries
Figure 1.1.A. Daily new COVID-19 cases

Cases, thousands
80,000 China
70,000 Advanced
60,000 economies
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2/5/...

3/4/...

4/1/...
1/22/...

2/19/...

3/18/...

4/15/...
Source: Johns Hopkins University; World Bank.
Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. Figure shows 7-day moving a
May 27, 2020.
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 Date China
1/22/2020 0.0
1/23/2020 95.0
1/24/2020 186.0
1/25/2020 286.0
1/26/2020 381.8
1/27/2020 465.8
1/28/2020 826.8
1/29/2020 791.3
1/30/2020 1,071.1
1/31/2020 1,268.9
2/1/2020 1,497.9
2/2/2020 2,079.3
2/3/2020 2,405.6
2/4/2020 2,599.7
2/5/2020 3,050.4
2/6/2020 3,206.6
2/7/2020 3,472.6
2/8/2020 3,560.4
2/9/2020 3,314.1
2/10/2020 3,234.0
2/11/2020 2,954.1
2/12/2020 2,474.1
2/13/2020 4,186.9
4/1/...

4/15/...

4/29/...

5/13/...

5/27/...

2/14/2020 4,606.9
2/15/2020 4,514.1
2/16/2020 4,383.4
2/17/2020 4,297.1
2/18/2020 4,260.7
2/19/2020 4,265.7
2/20/2020 2,168.9
2/21/2020 1,313.1
ws 7-day moving averages. Last observation is 2/22/2020 1,226.9
2/23/2020 929.9
2/24/2020 686.7
2/25/2020 506.1
2/26/2020 506.7
2/27/2020 503.3
2/28/2020 482.6
2/29/2020 336.4
3/1/2020 415.7
3/2/2020 413.6
3/3/2020 358.1
3/4/2020 317.1
3/5/2020 276.7
3/6/2020 251.7
3/7/2020 202.0
3/8/2020 127.3
3/9/2020 103.4
3/10/2020 89.4
3/11/2020 76.4
3/12/2020 56.4
3/13/2020 36.4
3/14/2020 29.6
3/15/2020 25.7
3/16/2020 24.7
3/17/2020 24.4
3/18/2020 25.9
3/19/2020 32.0
3/20/2020 43.6
3/21/2020 46.9
3/22/2020 61.7
3/23/2020 66.4
3/24/2020 76.1
3/25/2020 79.9
3/26/2020 89.4
3/27/2020 92.4
3/28/2020 99.1
3/29/2020 98.1
3/30/2020 100.0
3/31/2020 98.3
4/1/2020 100.0
4/2/2020 92.9
4/3/2020 87.7
4/4/2020 77.7
4/5/2020 68.6
4/6/2020 66.7
4/7/2020 62.7
4/8/2020 64.0
4/9/2020 64.4
4/10/2020 61.4
4/11/2020 67.3
4/12/2020 76.0
4/13/2020 78.3
4/14/2020 84.0
4/15/2020 78.1
4/16/2020 74.3
4/17/2020 117.0
4/18/2020 110.4
4/19/2020 95.9
4/20/2020 86.3
4/21/2020 78.1
4/22/2020 73.1
4/23/2020 68.7
4/24/2020 19.9
4/25/2020 17.4
4/26/2020 15.3
4/27/2020 14.4
4/28/2020 12.4
4/29/2020 10.9
4/30/2020 10.3
5/1/2020 8.6
5/2/2020 7.1
5/3/2020 7.4
5/4/2020 6.9
5/5/2020 4.0
5/6/2020 3.7
5/7/2020 2.7
5/8/2020 2.4
5/9/2020 4.4
5/10/2020 6.6
5/11/2020 6.4
5/12/2020 7.1
5/13/2020 7.7
5/14/2020 7.7
5/15/2020 8.9
5/16/2020 7.7
5/17/2020 6.3
5/18/2020 7.4
5/19/2020 6.4
5/20/2020 5.6
5/21/2020 4.9
5/22/2020 6.1
5/23/2020 5.7
5/24/2020 5.9
5/25/2020 5.6
5/26/2020 5.7
5/27/2020 6.1
Advanced economies EMDEs excl. China
0.0 0.0
1.0 1.5
4.5 1.7
3.3 2.8
5.8 2.6
5.6 2.5
6.8 3.0
6.3 4.0
6.9 4.0
9.9 4.7
11.1 4.4
11.9 4.6
10.9 4.7
11.8 5.0
11.1 4.3
12.0 4.1
12.1 3.3
10.1 5.0
9.4 4.6
10.0 4.7
10.1 3.9
9.4 3.6
9.5 3.6
9.5 3.6
10.5 1.7
12.1 2.0
12.3 1.6
12.4 1.3
13.4 1.6
23.1 1.7
38.9 3.6
73.6 5.1
107.8 7.0
150.0 10.3
181.1 20.3
 238.1 32.4
336.1 50.0
435.1 71.1
572.9 102.4
706.5 161.0
816.8 237.1
963.4 352.1
1,117.6 433.7
1,306.6 506.3
1,508.5 675.7
1,748.0 810.1
1,968.8 880.6
2,179.3 899.6
2,518.3 934.0
3,040.0 1,055.0
3,003.9 1,143.7
4,611.9 1,235.0
5,421.3 1,348.6
6,248.5 1,489.7
7,384.5 1,680.1
8,635.3 1,863.0
10,062.0 1,984.6
12,431.9 2,236.9
15,558.3 2,423.0
17,254.0 2,688.0
19,577.3 3,099.3
22,968.8 3,470.7
25,748.9 3,893.1
29,523.9 4,454.4
34,378.6 5,116.6
38,040.3 6,017.6
41,987.6 6,817.0
44,642.9 7,505.6
47,809.0 8,169.4
51,047.0 9,199.7
54,593.8 10,046.6
57,580.4 10,891.0
59,417.3 11,441.6
61,011.5 12,008.7
61,226.1 12,641.3
62,098.3 13,452.6
62,895.0 13,903.6
63,259.1 14,767.6
63,789.9 15,431.9
64,320.1 16,498.1
63,087.3 17,297.9
64,743.4 18,000.7
63,494.6 18,772.0
62,765.8 19,307.0
62,481.5 19,963.4
63,390.0 20,740.9
62,803.9 21,346.9
60,532.4 22,108.6
60,277.0 23,194.9
56,087.4 23,778.1
56,171.9 24,861.6
56,009.4 25,310.6
55,675.6 26,147.6
52,383.3 28,408.6
51,235.3 29,546.1
50,173.6 29,918.9
48,133.6 30,438.1
47,383.1 31,289.0
46,153.6 32,529.1
45,739.6 33,805.4
45,314.3 33,352.1
45,004.1 34,190.3
43,198.9 35,796.9
41,792.6 37,893.4
41,317.3 39,288.3
41,643.9 41,520.1
42,023.3 42,627.0
41,483.8 44,436.1
39,772.5 45,940.7
38,076.8 46,949.0
37,082.3 47,284.1
36,935.8 48,592.4
36,124.5 49,254.3
35,526.3 50,771.1
34,544.9 52,769.3
33,549.3 54,063.3
32,303.0 54,733.3
32,122.8 56,775.4
31,915.4 59,016.0
31,483.9 61,189.7
31,866.9 63,439.0
31,375.8 64,839.6
30,661.8 66,574.6
29,810.8 69,035.3
29,405.5 69,617.3
29,189.9 69,755.6
28,631.9 70,828.4
Figure 1.1.B. Global growth
Percent
8 World Advanced economie

-4

-8
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: World Bank.
Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. Shaded area indicates foreca
estimates. Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and marke
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 Year World
2010 4.4

onomies EMDEs 2011

2012
3.3
2.5
2013 2.7
2014 2.9
2015 2.9
2016 2.6
2017 3.3
2018 3.0
2019 2.4
2020 -5.2
2021 4.2
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

a indicates forecasts. Data for 2019 are

prices and market exchange rates.
Advanced economies EMDEs
2.9 7.4
1.6 6.5
1.2 4.9
1.4 5.0
2.0 4.5
2.3 3.9
1.7 4.2
2.5 4.5
2.1 4.3
1.6 3.5
-7.0 -2.5
###
3.9 4.6
###
###
Figure 1.1.C. Change in global activity indicators in 2020

Percent
0

-25

-50

-75

-100
Air pollution Retail and Flight
recreation cancellation
mobility (inverted)
Source: Air Quality Open Data Platform; Airportia; Google; OpenTable; World Bank.

Note: Air pollution is the change in NO2 emissions over January 1 to May 28 in 2019 and 2
recreation mobility is the percent change for May 21, 2020 from baseline, which is the medi
corresponding day of the week during the 5-week period January 3-February 6, 2020, base
Google. Flight cancelations shows the cancelations relative to total planned flights based on
operating flights in 2020 with flights that were operating 52 weeks ago in 2019 as of May 27
reservations shows the change in seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network o
Note: Air pollution is the change in NO2 emissions over January 1 to May 28 in 2019 and 2
recreation mobility is the percent change for May 21, 2020 from baseline, which is the medi
corresponding day of the week during the 5-week period January 3-February 6, 2020, base
Google. Flight cancelations shows the cancelations relative to total planned flights based on
operating flights in 2020 with flights that were operating 52 weeks ago in 2019 as of May 27
reservations shows the change in seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network o
and 2020. For more information on flight cancelations data, go to https://www.airportia.com
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rs in 2020

Flight Open Table

cancellations reservations
(inverted)
World Bank.

ay 28 in 2019 and 2020. Retail and

e, which is the median value for the
ruary 6, 2020, based on data from
ned flights based on comparing currently
n 2019 as of May 27, 2020. Open Table
penTable network on May 27 in 2019
 Percent change
Air pollution -19.0
Retail and recreation mobility
cancellations -37.2
(inverted)
Open Table -79.4
reservations -85.0
Figure 1.1.D. Commodity price changes since January 2020
Percent
25
0
-25
-50
-75 Natural rubber

Silver
Oil

Coal

Platinum
Natural gas

Base metals

Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.

Note: Figure shows the change in the monthly average of commodity prices between Janua
last observation, which is May 2020. Price changes for “Base metals” and “Food” show Wo
Sheet indexes. Oil price is unweighted average of Brent, WTI and Dubai prices.
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e January 2020
Oil
Silver Percent change -50.7

Food

Gold
Base metals

prices between January 2020 and the

and “Food” show World Bank Pink
bai prices.
Coal Natural gas Natural rubber Platinum Base metals Silver Food
-27.4 -26.8 -21.9 -20 -14.4 -9.5 -9.1
Gold
9.9
Figure 1.1.E. Global policy rates
Number of countries
Countries loosening policy
Countries tightening policy
15
Average policy rates (RHS)
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
18-Mar

19-Mar
18-Sep
18-Jan

18

19-Jan

19

19-Sep
18-Jul

18-Nov

19-Jul

Source: Bank of International Settlements; European Central Bank; World Bank.

Note: Average policy rates are weighted using 2018 U.S. dollar GDP. Sample includes 13 a
Euro Area and 21 EMDEs. Bars show the number of central banks lowering or raising their
Last observation included is April 2020.
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 Date
Percent 18-Jan
18-Feb

ing policy 18-Mar

18-Apr

ing policy 18-May

4 18-Jun
18-Jul
ates (RHS) 18-Aug
18-Sep

3 18-Oct
18-Nov
18-Dec
19-Jan

2 19-Feb
19-Mar
19-Apr
19-May
1 19-Jun
19-Jul
19-Aug
19-Sep
0 19-Oct
20-Mar
19

19-Sep

20-Jan
19-Jul

19-Nov

19-Nov
19-Dec
20-Jan
20-Feb
20-Mar
20-Apr

; World Bank.
P. Sample includes 13 advanced economies and the
lowering or raising their policy rate in a given month.
Average policy rates (RHS) Countries tightening policy
2.3
2.3 3
2.3 3
2.3 1
2.4 4
2.7 8
2.7 1
2.8 7
3 9
3.1 4
3 7
3.1 5
3.1 2
3 0
3.1 2
3.2 1
3.1 1
3.1 1
3 0
3 1
2.8 1
2.6 0
2.5 1
2.4 0
2.4 1
2.3 1
1.7 2
1.6 0
Countries loosening policy

-2
-6
-3
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
-1
-3
-1
-2
-1
-1
-5
-6
-8
-12
-13
-11
-7
-5
-6
-10
-26
-11
Figure 1.1.F. Share of economies in recession, 1871-2021

Percent
100

80

60

40

20

0
187118891907192519431961197

Source: World Bank

Note: Share of economies in recession, defined as an annual contraction in per capita GDP
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1871-2021
Year World
1871 40.9
1872 27.3
1873 27.3
1874 31.8
1875 36.4
1876 54.5 ###
1877 40.9
1878 50
1879 50
1880 22.7
1881 18.2
1882 22.7
1883 27.3
1884 59.1
1885 47.8 ###
1886 21.7
1887 26.1
1888 43.5
1889 39.1
1890 30.4
1891 52.2
1892 34.8
1893 43.5 ###
1894 21.7
1895 30.4
1896 25

961197919972015 1897
1898
20
8
1899 28
1900 28
1901 41.4
1902 51.7
in per capita GDP. 1903 27.6
1904 41.4
1905 31
1906 6.9
1907 20
1908 43.3 ###
1909 20
1910 20
1911 16.7
1912 26.7
1913 33.3
1914 70 ###
1915 53.3
1916 20
1917 60 ###
1918 70 ###
1919 26.7 ###
1920 33.3 ###
1921 54.3 ###
1922 11.1
1923 22.2
1924 21.6
1925 27
1926 27
1927 32.4
1928 16.2
1929 29.7
1930 70.3 ###
1931 83.8 ###
1932 75.7 ###
1933 29.7
1934 27
1935 18.9
1936 27
1937 16.2
1938 37.8 ###
1939 24.3
1940 51.4
1941 40.5
1942 56.8
1943 40.5
1944 54.1
1945 59.5 ###
1946 24.3 ###
1947 18.4
1948 21.1
1949 26.3
1950 21.1
1951 26.9
1952 29.8
1953 22.4
1954 21.7
1955 14.3
1956 25.4
1957 25.4
1958 38.8
1959 29.9
1960 17.1
1961 26.6
1962 22
1963 18.7
1964 13
1965 17.9
1966 22
1967 22.8
1968 20.3
1969 10.6
1970 18.7
1971 18.9
1972 19.7
1973 17.3
1974 18.1
1975 39.4 ###
1976 20.9
1977 24.8
1978 26.9
1979 20.8
1980 31.3
1981 34.5
1982 44.6 ###
1983 40.3
1984 28.1
1985 35.3
1986 29.5
1987 27.9
1988 29.8
1989 27.7
1990 44
1991 46.8 ###
1992 47.5
1993 44.7
1994 28.4
1995 22
1996 17.7
1997 16.3
1998 23.4
1999 30.5
2000 20.8
2001 27.3
2002 25.7
2003 17.5
2004 11.5
2005 13.1
2006 10.4
2007 12.6
2008 23.5
2009 61.2 ###
2010 16.9
2011 16.9
2012 26.2
2013 19.7
2014 17.5
2015 23
2016 20.2
2017 18
2018 16.9
2019 21.3
2020 92.9 ###
2021 12.6
Figure 1.2.A. Level of output relative to January projections
Percent 2020
0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10
World Advanced
economies

Source: World Bank.

Note: Figure shows the percent difference between the level of output in the January and J
Economic Prospects.
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y projections

2020 2021 World

Advanced economies
EMDEs

ed EMDEs
ies

the January and June 2020 editions of Global

2020 2021
-7.4 -6
-8.3 -6.1
-6.1 -5.9
Figure 1.2.B. Growth in advanced economies and EMDEs
Percent 2019 2020
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Adv
Source: World Bank
Notes: Shaded area indicates forecasts. Black lines indicate ranges based on the lower and
scenarios described in Box 1.3.
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and EMDEs

2020 2021

sed on the lower and upper bounds of growth in the

 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021 Negative Positive Negative
1.6
Advanced economies -7 2.8 1.2 -9.8
3.9 3.6 1.2 0.3
3.5
EMDEs -2.5 2.5 2 -5
4.6 1.9 1.8 2.7
2021
Positive

-5.8 ###
5.1 ###

-0.5 ###
6.4 ###
Figure 1.2.C. Government and non-financial corporate debt
Percent of GDP
80 2007 Latest
60
40
20
C o m m o d ity

C o m m o d ity
EMDEs

EMDEs
0 e x p o rte rs

im p o rte rs
G o v e rn m e n t ...

Source: Bank for International Settlements; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.
Note: Unweighted averages. Sample includes 88 commodity exporters and 65 commodity i
and 27 commodity exporters and 21 commodity importers for corporate debt. Latest availab
debt, and 2019Q4 for 16 economies and 2017 or 2018 for 31 economies for corporate debt
Return to Read Me
porate debt
Government debt

Latest
Corporate debt
C o m m o d ity

C o m m o d ity
EMDEs

e x p o rte rs

im p o rte rs
C o rp o ra te d e b t

World Bank.
d 65 commodity importers for government debt
ebt. Latest available data is 2018 for government
or corporate debt.
 2007 Latest
EMDEs
Commodity 44.4 54.9
exporters
Commodity 39.2 52.4
importers 51.6 58
EMDEs
Commodity 29.8 38
exporters
Commodity 24.3 32.9
importers 36.2 44.4
Figure 1.2.D. EMDE discretionary fiscal support measures i
Percent of GDP
2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Figure shows median values. Total measures either planned or under consideration a
(below) median indicates countries with government debt-to-GDP ratios above (below) a m
includes 48 EMDEs.
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measures in 2020, by debt levels
Below median
Above median

er consideration as of May 29, 2020. Above

bove (below) a median of 51 in 2018. Sample
2020
1.9
1.2
Figure 1.2.E. Health indicators in 2017
Number per
thousand people thou
50 EMDEs Advanced econ

40

30

20

10

0
Healthcare Hospital
workers (RHS)

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; World Bank.

Note: Unweighted averages. Sample includes 26 advanced economies and 11 EMDEs—C
Rica, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, and Turkey—as data are availabl
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 Number per EMDEs
Advanced economies
thousand people EMDEs
Advanced economies

ed economies 6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Hospital beds
(RHS)

rld Bank.
and 11 EMDEs—Chile, China, Colombia, Costa
as data are available.
Healthcare Hospital beds
workers (RHS)
20.0
41.6
2.8
4.8
Figure 1.2.F. Cumulative EMDE potential output response a

Percent
0

-2

-4

-6

-8
t t+5 t
Recession Financ
and re

Source: Ha, Kose and Ohnsorge (2019); World Bank.

Note: EMDE = Emerging Market and Developing Economies. Data and methodology are de
and Annex 3.4. Charts show impulse responses for 75 EMDEs from a local projections mod
cumulative slowdown in potential output after a recession, financial crisis, or oil price plunge
the event. Bars show coefficient estimates; vertical lines show 90 percent confidence bands
Return to Read Me
 tput response after recessions

t t+5
Financial crisis
and recession

and methodology are detailed in Chapter 3 Box 3.1

m a local projections model. Dependent variable is
crisis, or oil price plunge event. Year t is the year of
percent confidence bands.
 Potential output Error bars
Recession t -1.2 0.1
Financial crisis t+5 -6.2 1.1
and recession t -2.0 0.4
t+5 -7.6 1.7
Figure 1.3.A. Daily new cases and stringency index

Thousands, 7-day moving average

80 New cases Stringency ind

60

40

20

0
Jan-22

Feb-05

Feb-19

Mar-04

Apr-01

Apr-15
Mar-18

Source: Johns Hopkins University; University of Oxford; World Bank

Note: Figure shows day-on-day cumulative confirmed cases and containment measures. Th
average sub-indices of nine mitigation measures: School closings, workplace closings, can
public transport, restriction on gatherings, stay-home requirements and restrictions to intern
public information campaigns. The stringency index range is between 0 and 100, with 100 b
Sample includes 32 advanced economies as data are available. Last observation is May 18
Note: Figure shows day-on-day cumulative confirmed cases and containment measures. Th
average sub-indices of nine mitigation measures: School closings, workplace closings, can
public transport, restriction on gatherings, stay-home requirements and restrictions to intern
public information campaigns. The stringency index range is between 0 and 100, with 100 b
Sample includes 32 advanced economies as data are available. Last observation is May 18
Return to Read Me
 Date
rage Index Jan-22
Jan-23
gency index (RHS)
100 Jan-24
Jan-25
Jan-26
Jan-27
Jan-28

75 Jan-29
Jan-30
Jan-31
Feb-01
Feb-02
50 Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
25 Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11

0 Feb-12
Feb-13
Apr-01

Apr-15

Apr-29

May-13

Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
nment measures. The stringency index refers to the
kplace closings, cancelation of public events and Feb-23
restrictions to international and domestic travel and Feb-24
and 100, with 100 being the most stringent. Feb-25
bservation is May 18, 2020.
Feb-26
Feb-27
Feb-28
Feb-29
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-25
Mar-26
Mar-27
Mar-28
Mar-29
Mar-30
Mar-31
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Apr-25
Apr-26
Apr-27
Apr-28
Apr-29
Apr-30
May-01
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
Stringency index (RHS) New cases
1.0 0.0
1.6 0.0
2.3 0.0
2.9 0.0
3.6 0.0
4.3 0.0
4.6 0.0
4.9 0.0
5.3 0.0
6.7 0.0
7.4 0.0
8.7 0.0
9.0 0.0
9.8 0.0
9.8 0.0
10.2 0.0
10.3 0.0
10.4 0.0
10.6 0.0
10.6 0.0
10.6 0.0
10.8 0.0
10.8 0.0
10.8 0.0
10.8 0.0
10.8 0.0
10.8 0.0
10.8 0.0
10.8 0.0
11.0 0.0
11.7 0.0
12.0 0.1
13.1 0.1
13.6 0.2
14.6 0.2
14.9 0.3
15.6 0.4
16.0 0.5
16.8 0.6
16.9 0.8
17.3 0.9
17.8 1.1
19.0 1.2
20.3 1.4
21.2 1.6
21.4 1.8
21.4 2.1
23.5 2.3
26.8 2.7
28.7 3.3
35.1 3.5
40.0 4.9
43.0 5.8
45.3 6.7
53.3 8.0
56.5 9.3
58.8 10.7
62.1 13.7
64.0 15.7
66.0 18.4
66.5 21.0
69.6 24.5
71.6 27.6
71.8 31.6
72.4 35.8
73.3 39.8
73.6 44.0
74.4 47.1
75.1 49.5
75.3 53.4
75.5 56.3
75.3 58.1
75.8 60.2
76.0 61.5
76.0 62.9
76.3 63.4
76.8 63.0
78.1 63.3
78.3 63.3
78.1 63.7
78.0 62.6
78.2 65.5
78.0 64.5
77.5 63.3
77.3 62.1
77.4 62.9
77.2 61.6
76.6 60.8
76.6 57.5
74.9 57.1
74.5 56.9
74.5 55.8
74.4 53.2
74.5 50.9
74.5 50.9
74.2 49.2
73.5 48.3
73.3 47.0
73.1 45.7
72.8 44.5
72.9 45.2
72.8 43.9
72.7 43.0
70.8 42.0
70.1 41.4
70.1 41.8
70.1 41.4
70.0 40.1
70.0 39.2
70.0 38.0
65.5 37.6
65.2 37.0
64.9 35.1
62.6 34.4
59.2 33.5
55.1 33.0
51.5 32.6
49.8 32.3
Figure 1.3.B. Consumer confidence in major advanced econ

Z-score
2

-2

-4 United States
Euro Area
-6 Japan
-8

-10
2017 2018 2019
Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank.
Note: Confidence data are normalized across countries using the mean and standard devia
indicates that 2020 data are as of the most recent monthly observation, which is May 2020.
Return to Read Me
dvanced economies
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020*

2019 2020*

n and standard deviation from 2015 to 2019. Asterisk

which is May 2020.
United States Euro Area Japan
0.4 0.7 1.0
0.9 1.0 0.9
0.2 -0.3 -1.4
-6.5 -7.0 -8.4
Figure 1.4.A. Reduction in hours worked

Percent deviation Beauty and per

from January Food and beve
20 Leisure and ent
Professional se
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
Apr-11

Apr-21
Apr-26
Mar-12

Mar-22
Mar-27
Apr-01
Apr-06

Apr-16

Ma
Mar-07

Mar-17

Source: Homebase; World Bank.

Note: Figure shows 7-day moving average. Sample covers 60,000 small businesses and 1
U.S. The data compare the hours worked for the observed day against the median hours w
during the period January 4, 2020 to January 31, 2020 in order to compare the level of activ
observation is May 27, 2020. For more information on the data, go to https://joinhomebase.
 Date
y and personal care Mar-07
Mar-08
and beverage Mar-09
Mar-10
e and entertainment Mar-11
Mar-12
sional services Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Mar-25
Mar-26
Mar-27
Mar-28
Mar-29
Apr-21
Apr-26
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma

Mar-30
Mar-31
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
all businesses and 1 million hourly employees in the Apr-09
the median hours worked for the same day of the week Apr-10
pare the level of activity to pre-COVID-19 levels. Last
ttps://joinhomebase.com/data/covid-19/.
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Apr-24
Apr-25
Apr-26
Apr-27
Apr-28
Apr-29
Apr-30
May-01
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-23
May-24
May-25
May-26
May-27
Beauty and personal care Food and beverage Leisure and entertainment
-2.1 1.2 6.7
-2.3 1.7 7.3
-2.2 1.7 7.2
-2.3 1.6 7.4
-1.8 1.5 6.8
-2.3 1.1 6.7
-3.5 0.2 4.9
-5.6 -1.5 1.9
-8.1 -4.5 -2.6
-11.8 -7.8 -5.8
-17.1 -13.1 -12
-23.9 -19.8 -19.2
-31.5 -26.9 -27
-39.6 -34.6 -35.5
-48.9 -42.4 -45.3
-57.9 -49.6 -54
-65.3 -54.9 -60.4
-71 -58.4 -65.2
-75.6 -60.9 -68.9
-79.1 -62.7 -71.8
-81.8 -63.9 -73.8
-83.9 -64.8 -75.3
-85.8 -65.4 -76.4
-86.5 -66 -77.3
-87 -66.4 -78
-87.3 -66.6 -78.4
-87.6 -66.7 -78.6
-87.8 -66.8 -78.9
-87.9 -66.8 -79
-87.9 -66.9 -79.1
-88.3 -67 -79.2
-88.7 -67 -79.2
-89 -66.9 -79.3
-89.1 -66.8 -79.4
-89.5 -66.7 -79.5
-89.4 -66.6 -79.6
-89.9 -67.8 -79.9
-90.2 -67.9 -80.1
-90 -67.8 -80
-89.9 -67.6 -80
-89.8 -67.3 -79.8
-89.4 -67 -79.4
-89.3 -66.8 -79.2
-88.7 -65.2 -78.7
-88.4 -64.6 -78
-88.2 -64.1 -77.5
-88.2 -63.6 -77.1
-88.1 -63.1 -76.8
-87.8 -62.7 -76.4
-87.4 -62.3 -76.3
-87.1 -61.9 -76.1
-86.4 -61.5 -75.7
-85.6 -61 -75.1
-85.1 -60.5 -74.7
-84.6 -60 -74.2
-84 -59.3 -73.5
-83.7 -58.6 -72.6
-83.4 -57.9 -71.9
-82.4 -57 -71.3
-82.1 -55.9 -70.4
-81.6 -54.9 -69.4
-81.1 -54 -68.4
-80.4 -53.2 -67.6
-79.6 -52.4 -66.8
-78.9 -51.4 -66.3
-77.7 -50.9 -65.5
-76.2 -50.5 -64.7
-74.9 -49.9 -64
-73.4 -49.3 -63.3
-72.1 -48.7 -62.4
-71.4 -48.2 -61.5
-70 -47.9 -60.5
-68.7 -47.4 -59.6
-67.5 -46.9 -58.7
-66.3 -46.3 -57.6
-65.6 -45.7 -56.2
-64.9 -45 -54.8
-64.5 -44.3 -52.6
-64.3 -43.6 -50.2
-67.6 -44.4 -49.5
-67.7 -44 -48.6
-67.8 -43.6 -47.9
Professional services
-1.5
-1.5
-2
-2.4
-2.7
-3.1
-4.3
-5.5
-7.3
-8.9
-11
-14
-17.3
-20.5
-25.1
-29.4
-32.6
-35.5
-38.1
-40.3
-42.2
-44
-45
-45.8
-46.3
-46.4
-46.6
-46.7
-46.7
-46.8
-47
-47.1
-47.3
-47.6
-48.4
-48.7
-50.1
-50.4
-50.2
-50.2
-50
-49.2
-48.8
-47.5
-47.1
-47.1
-46.9
-46.8
-46.8
-46.8
-46.8
-46.5
-46.3
-46.1
-45.8
-45.4
-44.6
-43.9
-43.4
-42.9
-42.3
-41.6
-40.9
-40.3
-40.5
-40.2
-39.5
-39
-38.6
-38.2
-37.9
-36.7
-36.4
-36.2
-35.9
-35.5
-35.4
-35
-34.4
-40.4
-40.3
-40.2
Figure 1.4.B. TSA passenger traffic
Travelers per day, millions
3000000

2000000

1000000

0
4-Apr
7-Mar

2-May
11-Apr
18-Apr
25-Apr
21-Mar
14-Mar

28-Mar

Source: Transportation Security Administration; World Bank.

Note: TSA = Transportation Security Administration. Figure shows a 7-day moving average

Return to Read Me
 2020
2019
2-May
9-May
18-Apr
25-Apr

16-May

28-May
23-May

a 7-day moving average. Last observation is May 28, 2020.

Date 2020 2019
7-Mar 1,813,825 2,352,671
1,762,502 2,369,585
1,676,692 2,378,201
1,583,615 2,390,635
1,488,826 2,398,496
1,356,961 2,417,580
1,190,165 2,418,910
14-Mar 1,029,993 2,408,209
896,075 2,401,426
743,979 2,400,984
611,637 2,396,507
515,254 2,392,790
438,054 2,386,065
378,479 2,382,341
21-Mar 322,262 2,379,352
270,247 2,371,600
231,031 2,366,979
205,695 2,356,362
186,742 2,338,411
171,997 2,320,956
160,592 2,310,148
28-Mar 150,609 2,301,362
141,220 2,278,333
132,938 2,271,566
126,399 2,275,000
119,368 2,284,257
113,498 2,295,350
110,651 2,306,193
4-Apr 107,681 2,322,423
104,159 2,329,199
99,656 2,326,895
98,781 2,341,250
97,410 2,358,055
96,818 2,370,641
95,531 2,389,036
11-Apr 95,161 2,369,983
 95,674 2,359,849
97,799 2,346,992
97,393 2,362,648
98,154 2,365,332
99,323 2,356,308
101,686 2,343,565
18-Apr 104,126 2,352,817
106,586 2,353,140
109,942 2,374,569
112,872 2,348,655
115,451 2,330,740
118,403 2,331,059
124,556 2,327,130
25-Apr 131,427 2,330,578
134,256 2,327,408
140,167 2,328,235
146,430 2,336,549
149,242 2,337,196
152,211 2,339,228
157,378 2,347,211
2-May 163,646 2,355,297
168,692 2,357,820
173,058 2,344,465
180,480 2,350,372
185,137 2,362,485
190,317 2,372,915
196,612 2,380,913
9-May 201,615 2,389,758
205,010 2,404,783
212,580 2,433,520
216,656 2,448,288
220,552 2,465,623
228,223 2,483,972
240,155 2,492,874
16-May 254,184 2,511,177
262,734 2,515,992
264,683 2,437,484
278,482 2,422,705
289,106 2,442,836
 293,506 2,413,824
293,982 2,386,986
23-May 284,867 2,319,372
291,202 2,358,281
297,140 2,430,173
282,596 2,402,818
291,473 2,377,403
28-May 321,776 2,485,770
Figure 1.4.C. Industrial production and retail sales
Percent, Global finan
month-on-month COVID-19
0

-5

-10

-15

-20
Industrial production Reta

Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: Figure shows April 2020 for COVID-19 and the largest one-month decline over the pe
financial crisis, which is September 2008 and November 2008 for industrial production and
Return to Read Me
 l sales
Global financial crisis
COVID-19

Retail sales

onth decline over the period 2007-09 for the global

dustrial production and retail sales, respectively.
 Industrial production Retail sales
Global financial crisis -4.3 -3.9
COVID-19 -11.2 -16.4
Figure 1.4.D. U.S. oil prices and oil structures investment

US$/bbl
120
100
80
60
40
20 Oil price
Oil structures investment (R
0
No

No

Ma
No
Ma

Ju
Ma

Ju

Ju
Ma
No

Source: Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Haver Analytics; World Bank.
Note: Figure shows quarterly data. Oil price is the quarterly average of the West Texas Inte
investment reflects the real private fixed investment in mining exploration, shafts, and wells
investment is 2020Q1 with forecast for 2020Q2 based on a regression of oil structures inve
observation for oil price is 2020Q2, which is based on data through May 28, 2020.
Note: Figure shows quarterly data. Oil price is the quarterly average of the West Texas Inte
investment reflects the real private fixed investment in mining exploration, shafts, and wells
investment is 2020Q1 with forecast for 2020Q2 based on a regression of oil structures inve
observation for oil price is 2020Q2, which is based on data through May 28, 2020.
Return to Read Me
es investment

US$, billions
200

160

120

80

40
estment (RHS)
0
Ju
Ma
No
Ju
Ma
No

ytics; World Bank.

of the West Texas Intermediate benchmark. Oil structures
ration, shafts, and wells structures. Last observation for
on of oil structures investment on oil price. Last
May 28, 2020.
Date Oil price Oil structures investment (RHS)
Mar-11 94.0 122.8
Jun-11 102.6 130.5
Sep-11 89.7 141.1
Dec-11 94.1 152.4
Mar-12 102.9 156.4
Jun-12 93.5 158.1
Sep-12 92.3 151.1
Dec-12 88.2 145.9
Mar-13 94.3 153.3
Jun-13 94.2 159.3
Sep-13 105.9 159.9
Dec-13 97.4 148.9
Mar-14 98.7 155.5
Jun-14 103.3 170.9
Sep-14 97.8 171.7
Dec-14 73.2 173.1
Mar-15 48.6 153.2
Jun-15 57.9 123.2
Sep-15 46.4 106.7
Dec-15 42.0 92.1
Mar-16 33.4 69.3
Jun-16 45.4 63.1
Sep-16 44.9 68.0
Dec-16 49.2 71.0
Mar-17 51.8 84.7
Jun-17 48.3 96.5
Sep-17 48.2 96.9
Dec-17 55.4 104.2
Mar-18 62.9 108.9
Jun-18 67.9 123.5
Sep-18 69.6 123.0
Dec-18 59.0 119.2
Mar-19 54.9 119.0
Jun-19 59.8 114.0
Sep-19 56.4 104.5
Dec-19 56.9 95.3
Mar-20 45.8 94.5
Jun-20 22.1 55.0
Figure 1.5.A. Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases and mi
Thousands, 7-day moving average
600 Spain
Italy
500 Germany
France
400 Other members
Stringency
300 (RHS)
200
100
0
Apr-04
Feb-22

Source: Johns Hopkins University; University of Oxford; World Bank.

Note: “Stringency” refers to daily number of measures implemented across advanced econ
policy actions: School closings, workplace closings, cancelation of public events and public
gatherings, and to international and domestic travel, and stay at home requirements. Last o
Return to Read Me
19 cases and mitigation measures across Euro Area member coun
verage Index
100

80

60

40

20

across advanced economies and include the following

ublic events and public transport, restrictions to
me requirements. Last observation is May 18, 2020.
ea member countries
Date Other members France Germany Italy Spain Stringency (RHS)
Feb-22 0 0 0 0 0 2.9
0 0 0 0 0 3.3
0 0 0 0.1 0 5
0 0 0 0.1 0 5
0 0 0 0.2 0 5
0 0 0 0.3 0 5
0 0 0 0.4 0 5.4
Feb-29 0 0 0 0.5 0 5.4
0 0 0 0.7 0 5.9
0 0.1 0.1 0.9 0 5.9
0 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.1 5.9
0 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.1 5.9
0.1 0.2 0.2 1.9 0.1 5.9
0.1 0.3 0.3 2.4 0.2 5.9
Mar-07 0.2 0.4 0.4 3 0.2 6.1
0.3 0.5 0.5 3.6 0.3 6.1
0.4 0.7 0.6 4.5 0.4 6.1
0.6 0.9 0.8 5.4 0.7 6.1
0.8 1.2 1.1 6.6 0.9 6.1
0.9 1.4 1.3 7.6 1.2 6.1
1.3 1.9 1.7 9.2 1.8 6.1
Mar-14 1.7 2.4 2.2 11 2.6 6.1
2.2 2.8 2.9 13 3.5 6.1
2.8 3.6 3.8 15.2 4.6 6.6
3.6 4.4 4.9 17.7 5.8 7
4.5 5.4 6.4 20.2 7.3 8.8
5.6 6.6 8.2 23.5 9.3 9.4
6.9 7.8 10.5 26.8 11.1 10.3
Mar-21 8.3 9.2 13 30.4 13.4 10.7
10.1 10.5 15.7 34.1 15.9 11
12.1 12 18.7 38.1 19 11.1
14.3 13.5 21.7 42.1 22.3 12.5
16.8 15.1 24.7 46.2 26.3 12.5
19.7 16.9 28 50.3 30.6 13
22.9 18.8 31.4 54.3 35.4 13
Mar-28 26.4 21.1 35.3 58.2 40.2 14.6
30.2 23.6 39.3 62.1 45 16.4
34 26 42.7 65.6 49.8 17.4
37.8 29.1 46.3 69 54.8 17.8
41.6 32.3 49.8 72.3 59.3 17.8
45.3 35 53.2 75.3 63.4 21.8
48.9 37.7 56.2 78 67.1 27.1
Apr-04 52.2 40 59 80.6 70.7 27.9
55.4 42.3 61.5 83.1 73.9 38.6
58.4 44.4 64.4 85.6 76.7 43.7
61.3 45.8 66.5 88 79 48.4
64.2 47 67.4 90.1 80.9 50.3
67.1 48.4 67.7 92 82.4 59.6
70.1 49.6 67.7 93.9 83.7 62.3
Apr-11 73.2 50.8 67.2 95.6 84.8 64.7
76.3 55.5 66.4 97.2 85.7 69.1
79.4 60.2 65 98.7 86.3 71.2
82.5 65.5 63.6 100.1 86.7 72
85.7 70.4 62.7 101.6 87.1 72.5
88.6 76.6 61.7 103 87.8 74
91.1 82.6 60.1 104.2 89.2 75.9
Apr-18 93.5 88.1 58.5 105.3 90.5 75.9
95.8 90.5 56.8 106.1 92.5 76.7
98.2 92.7 55.1 106.8 94.1 77.9
99.1 94.5 53.4 107.3 96 78.3
99.8 95.7 51.6 107.6 97.8 78.6
100.6 95.5 49.9 107.6 99.3 80
101.1 95.4 47.8 107.6 98.2 80.4
Apr-25 101.5 95.7 46 107.3 96.8 80.4
101.8 95.3 44.2 107 94.7 80.4
101.8 95.3 42.4 106.6 92.8 80.4
103 95.3 40.7 106.3 90.5 80.4
103.5 95.3 39 105.9 87.5 80.4
103.7 95.2 37.4 105.1 83.9 81.2
104.1 95 36.1 104.3 82.6 81.2
May-02 104.4 94.8 34.5 103.6 80.7 81.7
104.4 94.6 32.8 102.7 78.9 81.9
104.4 94 31.1 101.9 76.9 81.7
104.3 93.1 29.5 100.9 74.9 81.7
 104.2 93.1 27.6 99.1 73.3 82
104.3 93.1 25.8 97.3 71.9 81.6
104.2 93.4 24.5 95.5 70 80.8
May-09 104.1 93.5 23.2 93.2 68.4 80.8
104.1 93.7 22.1 90.8 66.7 80.7
104.1 93.9 21 88.3 65.6 80.7
104 94.1 20.1 85.9 64.4 80.4
104.1 93.8 19.6 84 63.3 80.4
104.1 93.5 19 82.1 62.2 79.9
104.1 93.1 18.2 79.8 61.1 79.9
104 92.7 17.5 77.7 60.2 79.7
103.8 92.1 16.7 75.6 59.5 79.6
May-18 103.2 91.6 15.8 73.3 58.1 79.6
Figure 1.5.B. Google mobility trends for retail and recreation

Percent deviation from baseline

0

-25

-50

-75
Spain

France
Italy

Germany
Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports; World Bank.
Note: Data refer to May 21, 2020.
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 il and recreation

ine Italy
Spain
France
Germany
Euro Area
France

Euro ...
Germany
Percent deviation
-37
-58
-56
-55
-41.8
Figure 1.5.C. Share of tourism in GDP in 2019
Percent
20

15

10

0
Spain

Euro Area
Portugal

Italy

Source: World Bank; World Travel and Tourism Council.

Note: Data represents the sum of direct and indirect impacts of the travel and tourism secto
and Tourism Council. Euro Area is calculated using 2019 U.S. dollar GDP weights at 2010
Return to Read Me
 Portugal
Spain
Italy
Euro Area
Germany
France
Euro Area

France
Germany

ravel and tourism sector estimated by the World Travel

r GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange rates.
Share of tourism
16.5
14.3
13
10
9.1
8.5
Figure 1.5.D. Change in continuing unemployment insuranc
Percent
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Ger

Spain

France
Belgium

Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: Figure shows percent change between the monthly average of 2019 and the last obs
is April 2020.
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 yment insurance claims
Percent

Austria
France

United
States

of 2019 and the last observation for 2020. Last observation

 United
Belgium Germany Spain France Austria States
8.1 16.4 21.3 28.4 77.4 987.3
Figure 1.6.A. Purchasing Managers’ Index
Index, 50+=expansion
Caix
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
M ay-20
M ar-20

Feb-20
Feb-20
Jan-20

Jan-20
A pr-20
M anufact...

Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: Official and Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMI readings above (below) 5
in economic activity. Last observation is May 2020.
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 Caixin

M ay-20
Feb-20
S ervices...M ar-20
Jan-20

A pr-20

adings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (contraction)

 Date Caixin Official Threshold
Manufacturing PMI Jan-20 51.1 50.0 50
Feb-20 40.3 35.7 50
Mar-20 50.1 52.0 50
Apr-20 49.4 50.8 50
May-20 50.7 50.6 50

Services PMI Jan-20 51.8 53.1 50

Feb-20 26.5 30.1 50
Mar-20 43.0 51.8 50
Apr-20 44.4 52.1 50
May-20 55.0 52.3 50
Figure 1.6.B. Congestion delay index, 100-city average

Index
2017-1
170

160

150

140

130

120

110
-10
-2
6
14
22
30
38
46
54
62
70
78

Source: Baidu; Wind; World Bank.

Note: Baidu's traffic congestion data is derived from Baidu's real-time traffic information ma
delay index evaluates the degree of urban congestion, specifically the ratio of the average a
time of urban residents. The congestion index ranges from 1 to 4, where 1 indicates smooth
3 indicates congestion, and 4 indicates severe congestion. Number on the x-axis indicate d
New Year. 7 day moving average. Last observation is May 27, 2020.
Note: Baidu's traffic congestion data is derived from Baidu's real-time traffic information ma
delay index evaluates the degree of urban congestion, specifically the ratio of the average a
time of urban residents. The congestion index ranges from 1 to 4, where 1 indicates smooth
3 indicates congestion, and 4 indicates severe congestion. Number on the x-axis indicate d
New Year. 7 day moving average. Last observation is May 27, 2020.
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ty average

2017-19 2020
62
70
78
86
94
102
110
118

e traffic information map application. The traffic congestion

he ratio of the average actuarial travel time to free travel
here 1 indicates smoothness, 2 indicates slow movement,
on the x-axis indicate days before and after Chinese Lunar
0.
Days 2017-19 2020
-10 162.8 156.7
-9 162.4 156.4
-8 161.6 154.7
-7 160.7 154.4
-6 160.6 155.5
-5 160.1 153.7
-4 157.8 151.3
-3 155.2 147.3
-2 151.3 142.5
-1 144.8 136.5
LNY 139.5 132.2
1 134.9 127.2
2 130.4 122.2
3 127.0 118.2
4 125.0 115.2
5 124.8 113.6
6 127.7 113.3
7 131.1 113.3
8 134.2 113.4
9 137.9 113.7
10 141.7 113.9
11 144.6 114.0
12 147.1 114.4
13 149.6 114.6
14 150.3 114.6
15 151.1 114.6
16 152.0 114.9
17 154.3 115.1
18 155.4 115.4
19 156.5 115.4
20 157.8 115.9
21 159.5 116.8
22 159.7 117.1
23 159.9 117.5
24 159.9 117.7
25 160.3 118.0
26 160.5 118.3
27 161.1 118.3
28 161.6 117.8
29 161.9 117.6
30 162.3 118.0
31 162.5 118.5
32 162.6 119.1
33 162.7 119.7
34 162.5 120.4
35 162.2 120.8
36 162.3 121.3
37 162.3 122.5
38 162.3 123.7
39 162.5 125.1
40 162.7 126.4
41 162.9 127.6
42 162.8 128.3
43 162.8 128.9
44 163.2 130.1
45 163.2 131.0
46 163.5 131.7
47 164.6 132.4
48 163.7 133.3
49 162.5 133.8
50 162.4 134.3
51 163.2 134.9
52 163.1 135.6
53 163.1 136.2
54 162.1 137.0
55 163.5 137.7
56 165.3 138.1
57 165.7 138.4
58 165.3 138.9
59 164.2 139.4
60 163.5 140.0
61 163.3 140.6
62 162.6 141.2
63 163.4 141.7
64 163.7 141.8
65 161.4 142.2
66 161.5 142.8
67 162.2 143.2
68 162.4 143.4
69 162.7 143.3
70 161.0 143.2
71 161.8 143.6
72 163.6 141.5
73 163.7 142.6
74 162.8 143.3
75 162.8 144.0
76 162.5 145.1
77 162.4 146.0
78 160.8 146.4
79 160.2 149.7
80 161.0 149.1
81 161.4 148.7
82 162.0 148.6
83 162.2 148.7
84 163.6 149.0
85 163.0 149.0
86 162.1 149.3
87 160.7 150.0
88 160.5 150.9
89 160.6 151.3
90 160.6 151.5
91 159.2 151.8
92 159.9 153.7
93 159.4 153.4
94 160.8 153.7
95 161.0 153.8
96 160.0 155.9
97 159.5 153.2
98 159.4 152.2
99 159.2 150.4
100 160.4 147.3
101 160.0 144.8
102 159.6 145.6
103 159.4 144.5
104 159.7 147.9
105 159.6 150.9
106 159.6 151.3
107 159.4 154.9
108 159.0 157.4
109 159.1 156.3
110 159.0 155.7
111 158.7 155.5
112 159.5 153.3
113 159.5 153.3
114 159.6 153.4
115 159.9 153.5
116 160.1 154.4
117 160.2 154.9
118 159.8 155.3
119 160.4 155.1
120 160.4 155.1
121 159.6 155.0
122 155.3 155.3
123 155.0 154.5
Figure 1.6.C. Commercial real estate sales in 30 large and m
Unit, thousands Range for 2016
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
6
-2

14
22
30

70
78
38
46
54
62
-10

Source: Wind; World Bank.

Note: Commercial real estate refers to commercial residential buildings (excluding affordab
buildings for commercial businesses. Hangzhou, Nanchang, Wuhan, Harbin, Kunming, Yan
Jiangyin, and Foshan provide commercial buildings’ sales data (including residential, office
data). Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Qingdao, Suzhou, Xiamen, Dalia
Huizhou, Baotou, Changchun, Yueyang, Shaoguan, Chengdu, Changsha, Shijiazhuang, Ti
on commercial residential buildings. Numbers on the x-axis indicate days before and after C
shows 7-day moving average. Last observation is May 27, 2020.
Note: Commercial real estate refers to commercial residential buildings (excluding affordab
buildings for commercial businesses. Hangzhou, Nanchang, Wuhan, Harbin, Kunming, Yan
Jiangyin, and Foshan provide commercial buildings’ sales data (including residential, office
data). Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Qingdao, Suzhou, Xiamen, Dalia
Huizhou, Baotou, Changchun, Yueyang, Shaoguan, Chengdu, Changsha, Shijiazhuang, Ti
on commercial residential buildings. Numbers on the x-axis indicate days before and after C
shows 7-day moving average. Last observation is May 27, 2020.

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n 30 large and medium-sized cities

e for 2016-19 2020

70
78
62

86
94

118
102
110

ngs (excluding affordable housing), office buildings, and

n, Harbin, Kunming, Yangzhou, Anqing, Nanning, Lanzhou,
uding residential, office and commercial building sales
Suzhou, Xiamen, Dalian, Wuxi, Fuzhou, Dongguan,
ngsha, Shijiazhuang, Tianjin provide only partial sales data
days before and after Chinese Lunar New Year. Figure
Days Range for 2016-19 2020
-10 5,592.0 0.0
-9 5,942.0 0.0
-8 5,023.0 0.0
-7 4,688.0 0.0
-6 4,825.0 0.0
-5 4,620.0 0.0
-4 4,342.0 4,559.1
-3 2,809.0 4,035.1
-2 1,583.0 3,311.3
-1 157.0 2,632.7
LNY 312.0 1,983.3
1 197.0 1,267.6
2 182.0 751.7
3 244.0 406.3
4 260.0 160.9
5 318.0 89.1
6 1,175.0 99.4
7 2,706.0 104.1
8 3,199.0 62.3
9 4,203.0 60.6
10 5,426.0 62.7
11 4,880.0 66.4
12 4,204.0 70.3
13 4,312.0 58.3
14 4,780.0 53.6
15 7,063.0 58.0
16 6,454.0 97.4
17 6,961.0 164.4
18 7,112.0 208.1
19 7,321.0 264.4
20 6,122.0 337.9
21 9,410.0 388.4
22 5,703.0 486.1
23 7,548.0 537.0
24 7,552.0 545.4
25 8,280.0 631.0
26 8,108.0 756.1
27 5,980.0 965.7
28 8,376.0 1,029.3
29 8,306.0 1,079.9
30 8,873.0 1,178.6
31 9,490.0 1,350.1
32 9,118.0 1,475.6
33 8,614.0 1,580.0
34 6,177.0 1,634.3
35 9,673.0 1,788.3
36 9,919.0 1,847.9
37 9,136.0 1,927.3
38 9,578.0 2,017.9
39 9,326.0 2,094.7
40 7,833.0 2,140.7
41 6,377.0 2,167.0
42 9,451.0 2,130.1
43 9,355.0 2,193.4
44 10,258.0 2,274.4
45 10,107.0 2,393.7
46 11,436.0 2,342.7
47 8,590.0 2,306.9
48 6,511.0 2,358.3
49 9,945.0 2,352.7
50 11,033.0 2,379.3
51 11,754.0 2,414.3
52 11,879.0 2,403.3
53 8,941.0 2,539.1
54 7,145.0 2,685.6
55 7,610.0 2,875.4
56 6,902.0 3,004.6
57 8,285.0 3,108.0
58 9,576.0 3,108.3
59 8,557.0 3,107.1
60 8,434.0 3,335.3
61 8,047.0 3,578.7
62 10,550.0 3,452.4
63 8,553.0 3,474.1
64 8,686.0 3,533.1
65 9,119.0 3,848.9
66 8,566.0 4,248.9
67 8,847.0 4,161.0
68 7,873.0 3,996.3
69 5,835.0 4,015.9
70 8,548.0 3,895.3
71 8,852.0 3,764.0
72 9,515.0 3,343.4
73 8,420.0 3,007.4
74 8,944.0 2,891.1
75 7,531.0 2,878.4
76 6,516.0 3,124.1
77 10,161.0 3,243.7
78 10,270.0 3,286.0
79 11,877.0 3,542.7
80 11,484.0 3,567.1
81 11,706.0 3,718.6
82 7,599.0 3,745.1
83 5,714.0 3,780.1
84 6,495.0 3,850.1
85 7,028.0 3,940.0
86 8,108.0 3,992.0
87 9,124.0 3,994.3
88 9,027.0 3,977.6
89 7,666.0 4,085.7
90 7,403.0 4,028.3
91 8,831.0 4,188.0
92 8,904.0 4,528.0
93 8,143.0 4,563.0
94 7,666.0 4,747.9
95 7,554.0 4,965.3
96 7,043.0 5,095.7
97 6,287.0 4,770.0
98 8,276.0 4,393.0
99 7,608.0 3,931.3
100 7,347.0 3,509.6
101 8,287.0 2,991.7
102 7,981.0 2,734.4
103 6,443.0 2,539.6
104 5,839.0 2,933.6
105 8,010.0 3,389.4
106 8,401.0 3,731.4
107 9,423.0 4,235.6
108 9,241.0 4,727.0
109 8,673.0 4,807.6
110 7,901.0 5,050.1
111 6,255.0 5,034.6
112 9,869.0 4,921.6
113 10,034.0 4,743.7
114 7,011.0 4,659.3
115 7,611.0 4,651.4
116 7,532.0 4,883.4
117 6,417.0 4,771.1
118 5,926.0 4,795.4
119 7,460.0 4,972.4
120 7,772.0 5,149.7
121 7,202.0 5,227.1
122 4,331.0 5,219.7
123 4,857.0 5,047.7
Figure 1.6.D. Industrial profits and revenue

Index, 100=Jan-Apr 2019

115
Profits General government re

100

85

70

55
Jan-Apr 2019 May-Aug Sep-Dec
2019 2019
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics; Haver Analytics; World Bank.
Note: Figure shows seasonally adjusted profits for all industrial enterprises. Data for Januar
published by the statistical source due to the Chinese New Year. Haver Analytics calculates
February by allocating the published February year-to-date figures to January and February
days as weights. Last observation is April 2020.
Return to Read Me
overnment revenue

Sep-Dec Jan-Apr 2020

2019

erprises. Data for January and February are not

Haver Analytics calculates figures for January and
to January and February using the number of working
Date Profits General government revenue
Jan-Apr 2019 100.0 100.0
May-Aug 2019 100.8 96.5
Sep-Dec 2019 90.9 95.9
Jan-Apr 2020 69.2 84.5
Figure 1.7.A. Container shipping and new export orders
Percent, year-on-year Index, 50
8

-4

-8 Container shipping
New export orders (RHS)
-12
Jan-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Oct-1
Source: Haver Analytics; Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.
PMI = Purchasing Managers’ Index. Figure shows 3-month moving averages. New export o
measured by PMI. PMI readings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (contraction) in econ
April 2020.
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xport orders
Date
Index, 50+=expansion Jan-18
Feb-18

58 Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
54 Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18

50 Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
46 May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
ng 42
Sep-19
Oct-19
s (RHS) Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
38 Feb-20

19 Oct-19 Mar-20
Apr-20

g averages. New export orders are for manufacturing and

sion (contraction) in economic activity. Last observation is
Container shipping New export orders (RHS)
6.6 53.8
6.5 53.7
5.4 53.0
4.1 52.0
4.0 51.2
4.4 50.7
4.7 50.4
4.0 50.2
3.5 50.0
3.7 49.9
3.4 49.7
4.1 49.7
3.4 49.6
2.5 49.4
2.7 49.1
3.1 49.0
3.4 49.0
2.8 49.0
2.5 48.8
2.9 48.2
3.0 48.0
2.1 48.2
1.4 48.7
-0.5 49.1
-1.1 49.2
-3.4 47.9
-4.1 45.8
-5.9 38.3
Figure 1.7.B. Trade growth
Percent Percent
10

-5

-10

-15
2017

2018

2019

2020
Source: World Bank.
Note: Shaded area indicates forecasts. Trade is the average of import and export volumes.
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 Year Percent
2017 5.9
2018 4
2019 0.8
2020 -13.4
2021 5.3
2020

2021

d export volumes.
Lowest in post-WWII history (2009)
-10.4
-10.4
-10.4
-10.4 ###
-10.4 ###
Figure 1.7.C. GDP elasticity of global trade
Elasticity
Multip
5
Bems et al. (2010)
4 Bussière et al. (2013)

Source: World Bank.

Note: Bars show the coefficent of a simple regression of global trade on GDP from 2011-20
using 2009, 1991, 1982, and 1975 "during recessions". Recession is defined as defined as
GDP. These roughly correspond with more sophisticated estimates such as Bems, Johnson
(2013); Constantinescu, Mattoo and Ruta (2015); and Freund (2009).
Return to Read Me
 During expansions
During recessions

GDP from 2011-2019 "during expansions" and

ned as defined as a contraction in real per capita
as Bems, Johnson, and Yi (2010); Bussière et al.
Elasticity Constantinescu, Mattoo, and Ruta (2015) Bussière et al. (2013)
1.4 1.3 1.5
3.0 2.8
Freund (2009) Bems et al. (2010)
1.8 2.8
4.1 4
Figure 1.7.D. Global manufacturing and services PMI
Index, 50+=expansion Manu
60 Servi

50

40

30

20
Jan-16 Dec-16 Nov-17 Oct-18
Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank

Note: PMI = Purchasing Managers’ Index. Manufacturing and services are measured by Pu
(PMI). PMI readings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (contraction) in economic activity
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 Date
Manufacturing Jan-16
Feb-16

Services Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18

Oct-18 Sep-19 Mar-18

Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
e measured by Purchasing Managers’ Index Sep-18
economic activity. Last observation is April 2020. Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Manufacturing Services
50.7 52.7
49.8 50.7
50.5 51.4
50.1 51.7
50.1 51.3
50.3 51.4
50.9 51.4
50.7 51.5
51.0 51.7
51.9 53.0
51.9 53.3
52.6 53.4
52.6 53.9
52.8 53.3
52.8 53.7
52.6 53.7
52.4 53.9
52.4 53.8
52.6 53.7
53.1 54.0
53.1 53.8
53.3 54.1
53.8 53.7
54.3 53.8
54.1 54.1
53.9 54.8
53.1 53.2
53.3 53.8
53.0 54.3
52.8 54.6
52.6 54.0
52.4 53.5
52.0 52.9
51.9 53.4
51.8 53.7
51.4 53.0
50.6 52.6
50.5 53.3
50.5 53.8
50.4 52.7
49.8 51.6
49.4 51.9
49.3 52.5
49.6 51.8
49.8 51.4
49.8 51.0
50.3 51.6
50.1 52.0
50.3 52.6
47.1 47.1
47.3 36.8
39.6 24.0
Figure 1.7.E. Monthly tourist arrivals as a share of average s

Deviation from 5-year average

50
25
0
-25
-50 EMDEs Advanced eco

-75
-100
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19

Source: Haver Analytics.

Note: Figure shows the deviation from the unweighted country average for each month sinc
EMDEs and 22 advanced economies. Last observation is April 2020.
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of average since 2015
Date EMDEs
Jan-18 10
Feb-18 6.2
Mar-18 10.1
Apr-18 8.8
May-18 6.7
Jun-18 9.5
Jul-18 7.8
Aug-18 9.1
Sep-18 7.3
Oct-18 7.9
Nov-18 10.1
Dec-18 9.8
Jan-19 16
Feb-19 18.1

ced economies Mar-19

Apr-19
18
19.3
May-19 9.5
Jun-19 17.7
Jul-19 12.3
Aug-19 15.1
Sep-19 13.6
Oct-19 16.2
Nov-19 16.4
Jan-20
May-19
Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20
Sep-19

Dec-19 13.8
Jan-20 26.2
Feb-20 12
Mar-20 -58.1
Apr-20 -96.9

r each month since 2015. Sample includes 29

Advanced economies
8.8
8.6
10.8
7.1
7.7
7.4
5
6.1
6.4
8.2
7.9
7.7
11.9
12.4
12.5
12
10.5
12.7
8.4
7.9
8.4
7.4
9.7
8.8
16.2
-0.1
-60.4
-98.3
Figure 1.7.F. Subcomponents of the global manufacturing P
Index, 50+=expansion Index, 50+
Stocks of purchases
Suppliers' delivery times (R
65

60

55

50

45

40
Jan-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Oct-1
Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: PMI = Purchasing Managers’ Index. Figure shows the global stocks of purchases and
PMI. For the stocks of purchases, PMI readings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (cont
the suppliers’ delivery times PMI readings above (below) 50 indicate slower (faster) deliveri
this subcomponent is normally presented, to reflect that the slowdown in deliveries is a con
disruptions rather than a sign that the economy is working near full capacity. Last observati
Note: PMI = Purchasing Managers’ Index. Figure shows the global stocks of purchases and
PMI. For the stocks of purchases, PMI readings above (below) 50 indicate expansion (cont
the suppliers’ delivery times PMI readings above (below) 50 indicate slower (faster) deliveri
this subcomponent is normally presented, to reflect that the slowdown in deliveries is a con
disruptions rather than a sign that the economy is working near full capacity. Last observati
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ufacturing PMI
Date
dex, 50+=slower time Jan-18
Feb-18
es Mar-18
Apr-18

times (RHS) May-18

65 Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18

60 Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19

55 Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19

50 Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
45 Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
40 Feb-20

Oct-19 Mar-20
Apr-20

of purchases and the suppliers’ delivery times

e expansion (contraction) in economic activity;
er (faster) deliveries. This is reversed from how
deliveries is a consequence of production
ty. Last observation is April 2020.
Stocks of purchases Suppliers' delivery times (RHS) Threshold
51.0 54.2 50
51.1 54.5 50
50.8 55.0 50
50.6 55.1 50
50.5 55.3 50
50.4 55.3 50
50.6 55.0 50
50.1 54.2 50
50.7 53.9 50
50.4 53.7 50
50.2 53.6 50
50.1 52.6 50
49.6 52.2 50
49.3 51.7 50
50.4 51.1 50
49.9 50.8 50
49.4 50.1 50
48.8 49.9 50
48.7 49.8 50
48.8 50.1 50
49.2 50.1 50
48.4 50.2 50
48.8 50.1 50
49.1 50.3 50
48.5 50.7 50
46.3 57.4 50
47.2 59.1 50
43.8 62.2 50
Figure 1.8.A. Global stock market
Percent 2000 2008
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
0 33 66 99 132165198231264
Days
Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.
Note: Stock market represented by the MSCI ACWI Index, which is a global market capitali
equity markets in 23 advanced economies and 26 EMDEs. Cumulative decline relative to p
2020.
Return to Read Me
 Days 2000

2008 2020 0
1
0
-0.2
2 -0.4
3 -2.1
4 -1.3
5 -1.7
6 -2.1
7 -2.8
8 -2.1
9 -1.2
10 -1.4
11 -2.2
12 -3.3
13 -4.6
14 -8.3
15 -8.3
16 -6.4
17 -6.7
18 -6.3
19 -6.3
20 -6.4
21 -4.9
22 -5.3
23 -5.9
98231264297330363 24
25
-5.8
-5.2
26 -5.3
s 27 -7.4
28 -7.5
29 -6.7
30 -7.3
lobal market capitalization weighted index representing 31 -8.2
decline relative to peak. Last observation is May 28, 32 -9.5
33 -8.8
34 -7.7
35 -7.2
36 -5.9
37 -7.6
38 -8
39 -9.7
40 -10.6
41 -11.2
42 -10.8
43 -10.8
44 -10.7
45 -10.3
46 -8.2
47 -8.4
48 -6.9
49 -4.5
50 -4.6
51 -4.5
52 -4.4
53 -4.9
54 -5.2
55 -5.4
56 -4.8
57 -4.5
58 -4.9
59 -5.2
60 -4.5
61 -4.3
62 -4.6
63 -5.6
64 -6.2
65 -6.1
66 -6
67 -5.5
68 -6.2
69 -5.4
70 -4.6
71 -4.7
72 -5.4
73 -5.3
74 -4.2
75 -4.1
76 -4.1
77 -3.8
78 -4.1
79 -3.5
80 -3.4
81 -4.6
82 -5.2
83 -4.5
84 -5.4
85 -6.1
86 -5.8
87 -6.4
88 -7.2
89 -8.8
90 -8.3
91 -7.9
92 -8
93 -8.3
94 -7.7
95 -7
96 -7.1
97 -7.1
98 -7.2
99 -6.9
100 -6.2
101 -6
102 -6
103 -5.7
104 -6
105 -6
106 -6
107 -5.8
108 -5.6
109 -5.3
110 -5
111 -5.3
112 -5.8
113 -5.5
114 -4.5
115 -4.3
116 -5.4
117 -6.5
118 -6.5
119 -7.3
120 -7.9
121 -8.5
122 -8.5
123 -8.5
124 -9.2
125 -10.6
126 -10.1
127 -10.5
128 -10.9
129 -10.6
130 -10.6
131 -11.2
132 -11.3
133 -10.3
134 -10.8
135 -10.7
136 -11
137 -10.9
138 -10.8
139 -11.9
140 -12.8
141 -13.3
142 -14.8
143 -16.2
144 -14.9
145 -15
146 -16.2
147 -17
148 -15.2
149 -14.6
150 -14.4
151 -13.8
152 -15.3
153 -15.5
154 -14.5
155 -14
156 -12.6
157 -12.2
158 -11.8
159 -11.6
160 -11.3
161 -11.4
162 -12.3
163 -13
164 -14.5
165 -15.7
166 -14.1
167 -13.8
168 -14.8
169 -15.2
170 -16.7
171 -16.7
172 -18.3
173 -18.2
174 -17.2
175 -16.4
176 -17.1
177 -17.1
178 -18.2
179 -17.6
180 -17.3
181 -15.1
182 -15.8
183 -16.2
184 -15.1
185 -14.2
186 -14.6
187 -15.2
188 -16
189 -17.4
190 -17.1
191 -17.7
192 -19.7
193 -19.7
194 -18.4
195 -18.2
196 -17.9
197 -17.1
198 -16.8
199 -16.9
200 -16.9
201 -18.1
202 -16.5
203 -16.3
204 -17.3
205 -17.6
206 -18
207 -17.9
208 -17.2
209 -17.2
210 -17.3
211 -17.2
212 -16.7
213 -15.7
214 -15.9
215 -15.9
216 -15.3
217 -15.4
218 -15.6
219 -15.7
220 -15.5
221 -14.9
222 -14.8
223 -14.5
224 -15.8
225 -15.7
226 -15.8
227 -16.6
228 -17.3
229 -18.2
230 -17.3
231 -17.9
232 -18.4
233 -18
234 -19.1
235 -19.2
236 -20.3
237 -21.4
238 -21.7
239 -22.3
240 -21.3
241 -21.3
242 -22.1
243 -22.1
244 -22.6
245 -22.3
246 -21.4
247 -21.2
248 -21.1
249 -22.4
250 -25.1
251 -25.3
252 -27
253 -26.4
254 -28
255 -27.5
256 -28
257 -28.8
258 -30.5
259 -28.8
260 -27.2
261 -25.8
262 -27.1
263 -27.9
264 -27.5
265 -28.2
266 -30
267 -29.6
268 -27.5
269 -28.1
270 -27.8
271 -26.7
272 -26.6
273 -25.7
274 -25.8
275 -26.2
276 -25.9
277 -23.7
278 -22.6
279 -22.9
280 -23.8
281 -24.3
282 -23.6
283 -23
284 -22.4
285 -22.3
286 -21.4
287 -21.3
288 -22.2
289 -21.5
290 -21.5
291 -21.9
292 -22.4
293 -22.1
294 -22.7
295 -23.2
296 -22.8
297 -21.7
298 -21.1
299 -21.1
300 -20.3
301 -20.4
302 -21.2
303 -21.2
304 -21.9
305 -21.9
306 -22.4
307 -23.4
308 -23.4
309 -23.3
310 -23
311 -22.3
312 -22.9
313 -22.6
314 -23.1
315 -23.9
316 -24.3
317 -24.5
318 -25.3
319 -25.8
320 -26.3
321 -26.2
322 -26.1
323 -25.5
324 -25.7
325 -25.8
326 -26.3
327 -26.5
328 -26.1
329 -25.8
330 -25.1
331 -25.5
332 -25.8
333 -26.8
334 -28.2
335 -27.9
336 -28.3
337 -28.6
338 -27.5
339 -27.3
340 -27.7
341 -27.7
342 -27.8
343 -27.3
344 -27.5
345 -28.4
346 -29.1
347 -28.6
348 -28.2
349 -27.8
350 -27.7
351 -27.1
352 -26.7
353 -26.1
354 -26.5
355 -27.1
356 -27
357 -28
358 -28.3
359 -28.1
360 -28
361 -27.7
362 -27.7
363 -27.9
364 -28.9
365 -28.9
366 -29
367 -28.6
368 -28.9
369 -27.9
370 -28
371 -28.9
372 -29.4
373 -30.7
2008 2020
0 0
-0.7 -0.2
-0.9 -0.2
-2.7 -0.2
-3.2 -0.6
-3.7 -0.2
-3.5 -0.7
-3.5 -1.4
-4.4 -4.4
-3.5 -6.6
-5.7 -7.1
-7.5 -10.2
-8.8 -11.7
-9.4 -9
-12.4 -10.1
-12.9 -7.7
-12.4 -9.5
-9.8 -11.4
-9.6 -17.6
-9.6 -15.4
-8.6 -18.5
-9.2 -26.3
-8.3 -22.4
-6.8 -29.5
-6.8 -27
-9.6 -30.7
-10.4 -30.5
-11 -31.7
-11.1 -33.9
-11.2 -28.4
-9.7 -26.4
-9.2 -23
-9 -24.9
-9.4 -23.4
-8.9 -23.9
 -8.4 -26.7
-9.1 -25.8
-8.7 -26.8
-8.7 -22.8
-7.3 -22
-6.3 -20.4
-5.6 -19.2
-6.3 -19.1
-8.1 -19.7
-9.1 -17.8
-9.7 -19.6
-9 -19.4
-9.8 -17.3
-11.1 -18.2
-12.4 -20.7
-10.5 -19.3
-9.9 -19
-10.3 -18.7
-11.5 -17.2
-13.6 -17.1
-10.8 -15.2
-12.2 -15.8
-12.1 -17.6
-11.9 -18.2
-11.2 -17.4
-9.1 -17.7
-9.2 -17.1
-9.4 -15.6
-9.8 -15.6
-9.7 -16.7
-8 -17.9
-7 -18
-6.7 -17.7
-6.3 -15.4
-5.8 -15.5
-6.5 -14.3
-7.1 -15
-6.9 -15.3
-7.9 -14.9
-8.6 -13.6
-8.2 -12.7
-6.2 -12.4
-6.3
-5.3
-4.8
-5.3
-5.2
-5.5
-4.7
-4.4
-5
-4.9
-4.6
-3.6
-3.6
-3.2
-4
-3.9
-4.7
-3.9
-3.9
-3.6
-2.6
-1.9
-1.5
-2.4
-3.3
-3.3
-4.3
-4.8
-4.7
-4.6
-4.2
-3.8
-4.4
-4.9
 -5.4
-4.5
-5.7
-6.3
-7.7
-8.6
-9
-8.3
-7.8
-7.6
-8.3
-8.8
-10.1
-10.5
-10.8
-10.2
-11.7
-12.1
-11.9
-12.6
-13.6
-14
-14.4
-14.4
-14.5
-14.6
-14.7
-15.4
-15.6
-16.9
-16.1
-14.7
-14.7
-14.1
-13.7
-13.1
-14.4
-14.8
-15.6
-15.3
-13.8
-14.3
-15.2
-16.1
-15
-14.4
-15.4
-15.2
-14.6
-15.4
-16.3
-15.9
-16.2
-16.8
-18.1
-17.5
-17.2
-16.7
-17.5
-17.7
-17.1
-16.1
-16.3
-17
-17.4
-18.2
-20.4
-21.3
-19.4
-21.5
-21.7
-21.9
-20.7
-23.5
-24.4
-26.6
-25.2
-20.6
-21.7
-22.8
-23.1
-22
-22.8
-28.1
-26.9
-26.8
-29.4
-29.8
-34.1
-36
-38.5
-40.9
-43.9
-38.6
-36.8
-41.3
-42.5
-41.8
-39.5
-40.5
-44.4
-44.6
-47.1
-49.4
-45.9
-43.9
-41.8
-41.4
-41.1
-38.3
-39.7
-43.4
-42.5
-42.2
-44.4
-46.6
-45.4
-46.2
-47.4
-47.4
-49.7
-52.8
-51.4
-48.2
-47.3
-46.5
-45.9
-45.4
-49
-48.2
-47.5
-48.4
-48.2
-45.2
-45.6
-44.8
-45.1
-45.6
-45.2
-43.7
-42.9
-43.4
-44.1
-45.1
-45.4
-45.5
-45.4
-45.2
-44.7
-43.8
-43.5
-43.5
 -42
-41.8
-41.5
-42.2
-42.4
-43.4
-44.6
-45.4
-47
-47.6
-46.8
-47.2
-49.4
-48.6
-49
-49.4
-48.4
-47.6
-46.2
-47.3
-48.4
-49.1
-48.2
-47.8
-47.6
-46.4
-46
-47.7
-47.8
-48.4
-48.3
-48.7
-50.8
-51.2
-51.2
-52.3
-53.1
-52.6
-52.8
-52.8
-53.6
-55.9
-56.3
-55.2
-56.5
-56.7
-57.2
-55
-54.6
-53.7
-53
-52.4
-51.6
-51.1
-50.1
-50.9
-48.4
-48.7
-48.4
-47.6
-48.6
-50.7
-49.9
-49.1
-46.9
-46.7
-47
-47.9
-47.8
-46.2
-46.1
-45.8
-46
-46
-45.2
-45
-46.9
-46.5
-46.4
-46
-44.9
-45.3
-46
-44.7
-44.1
-44
-42.2
-42.1
-41.4
-41.4
-40.2
-40.8
-40.9
-42.2
-42.2
-42.2
-41.1
-40.3
-39.9
-40.9
-40.7
-40.6
-39.8
-40
-39.8
-38.8
-37.2
-36.9
-38
-37.9
-38
Figure 1.8.B. Stock market volatility indexes
Index 2020 high
February 2020 a
100 High during GFC

75

50

25

0
E Euro Area U
Source: Haver Analytics; World Bank.
Note: GFC = Global financial crisis. Figure shows the volatility index for each region. Data d
the Euro Area and the United States. Last observation is May 29, 2020.
Return to Read Me
 high
uary 2020 average
during GFC

Area United States

for each region. Data during the GFC are available for
020.
 EMDEs Euro Area United States
February 2020 average 21.9 17.9 19.6
2020 high 92.5 85.6 82.7
High during GFC 87.5 80.9
Figure 1.8.C. EMDE portfolio flows
Percent of GDP, accumulated daily flow
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
COVID-19
-0.6 2018 sell-off
-0.8 Taper tantrum
Global financial crisis
-1.0
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
Days
Source: Institute of International Finance; World Bank.

Note: The dates for the start of each episode are as follows: COVID-19, January 20, 2020;
tantrum, May 21, 2013; Global financial crisis, September 7, 2008. Sample includes 10 EM
are calculated using nominal U.S. dollar GDP for the corresponding year of each episode. L
Return to Read Me
 Day COVID-19
daily flows 0 0
1 -0.01
2 -0.01
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 -0.01
7 -0.01
8 -0.02
9 -0.04
10 -0.05
11 -0.05
12 -0.05
13 -0.03
14 -0.02
15 -0.02
16 -0.01
17 -0.01
18 -0.01
19 -0.03
20 -0.03
21 -0.05
22 -0.04
23 -0.05
24 -0.04
56
64
72
80
88

25 -0.06
26 -0.06
s 27 -0.08
28 -0.13
29 -0.14
30 -0.17
31 -0.19
anuary 20, 2020; 2018 sell-off, May 2, 2018; Taper 32 -0.19
e includes 10 EMDEs due to data availability. Data 33 -0.19
of each episode. Last observation is May 28, 2020. 34 -0.21
35 -0.23
36 -0.25
37 -0.28
38 -0.31
39 -0.36
40 -0.4
41 -0.44
42 -0.47
43 -0.5
44 -0.53
45 -0.55
46 -0.57
47 -0.58
48 -0.58
49 -0.59
50 -0.61
51 -0.63
52 -0.64
53 -0.63
54 -0.65
55 -0.65
56 -0.66
57 -0.67
58 -0.67
59 -0.68
60 -0.68
61 -0.68
62 -0.68
63 -0.69
64 -0.7
65 -0.7
66 -0.71
67 -0.71
68 -0.72
69 -0.74
70 -0.74
71 -0.74
72 -0.75
73 -0.75
74 -0.75
75 -0.76
76 -0.76
77 -0.74
78 -0.75
79 -0.76
80 -0.77
81 -0.78
82 -0.78
83 -0.79
84 -0.81
85 -0.82
86 -0.82
87 -0.81
88 -0.81
89 -0.81
90 -0.81
91 -0.80
92 -0.81
93 -0.81
Global financial crisis Taper tantrum 2018 sell-off
0 0 0
0 0.01 -0.01
-0.01 0.01 -0.02
-0.01 0.01 -0.01
-0.02 0 -0.02
-0.02 0 -0.04
0.01 -0.03 -0.05
-0.04 -0.05 -0.06
-0.05 -0.07 -0.06
-0.04 -0.08 -0.06
-0.05 -0.08 -0.06
-0.05 -0.08 -0.08
-0.05 -0.09 -0.1
-0.08 -0.11 -0.11
-0.08 -0.12 -0.12
-0.09 -0.13 -0.12
-0.09 -0.14 -0.13
-0.09 -0.18 -0.14
-0.1 -0.2 -0.14
-0.11 -0.19 -0.14
-0.12 -0.19 -0.14
-0.12 -0.21 -0.14
-0.15 -0.28 -0.15
-0.17 -0.28 -0.14
-0.21 -0.29 -0.14
-0.22 -0.31 -0.14
-0.22 -0.32 -0.14
-0.23 -0.32 -0.16
-0.25 -0.3 -0.17
-0.29 -0.3 -0.17
-0.29 -0.3 -0.17
-0.3 -0.31 -0.21
-0.32 -0.3 -0.21
-0.33 -0.3 -0.22
-0.36 -0.31 -0.23
-0.39 -0.31 -0.24
-0.41 -0.31 -0.25
-0.42 -0.31 -0.25
-0.43 -0.31 -0.26
-0.42 -0.32 -0.26
-0.45 -0.33 -0.26
-0.44 -0.33 -0.25
-0.44 -0.32 -0.25
-0.44 -0.32 -0.25
-0.45 -0.31 -0.25
-0.46 -0.3 -0.26
-0.45 -0.3 -0.27
-0.45 -0.34 -0.27
-0.46 -0.34 -0.26
-0.46 -0.35 -0.26
-0.47 -0.34 -0.24
-0.47 -0.34 -0.25
-0.48 -0.33 -0.25
-0.48 -0.32 -0.24
-0.48 -0.3 -0.23
-0.49 -0.32 -0.24
-0.5 -0.32 -0.23
-0.51 -0.36 -0.23
-0.5 -0.36 -0.23
-0.5 -0.37 -0.23
-0.48 -0.38 -0.24
-0.49 -0.36 -0.23
-0.5 -0.36 -0.23
-0.49 -0.33 -0.23
-0.49 -0.34 -0.22
-0.5 -0.34 -0.22
-0.49 -0.34 -0.22
-0.48 -0.37 -0.22
-0.47 -0.4 -0.22
-0.48 -0.4 -0.22
-0.48 -0.39 -0.21
-0.48 -0.4 -0.21
-0.48 -0.41 -0.21
-0.48 -0.42 -0.22
-0.47 -0.42 -0.22
-0.47 -0.42 -0.23
-0.47 -0.41 -0.25
-0.48 -0.42 -0.26
-0.48 -0.42 -0.26
-0.48 -0.41 -0.25
-0.49 -0.4 -0.25
-0.49 -0.38 -0.24
-0.5 -0.37 -0.23
-0.49 -0.35 -0.22
-0.49 -0.33 -0.22
-0.48 -0.33 -0.23
-0.48 -0.31 -0.23
-0.47 -0.3 -0.24
-0.46 -0.32 -0.24
-0.46 -0.29 -0.25
-0.43 -0.29 -0.25
-0.44 -0.28 -0.26
-0.44 -0.29 -0.26
-0.45 -0.28 -0.26
Figure 1.8.D. Spreads on EMDE debt
Percentage points
10

0
High Low
government debt governme

Source: JP Morgan; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Average cumulative change in spreads on government bonds from January 1, 2020 t
Sample includes 25 EMDEs. High government debt: EMDEs in the top 75 percentile by the
government debt in 2019; low government debt: EMDEs in bottom 25 percentile by the leve
government debt in 2019. Orange lines indicate interquartile ranges.
Return to Read Me
 High
government
Low debt
government debt

Low
government debt

om January 1, 2020 to May 28, 2020.

p 75 percentile by the level of general
percentile by the level of general
Spread 75 percentile 25 percentile
6.4 -3.6 -4.0
1.4 -0.3 -0.6
Figure 1.8.E. EMDE exchange rates
Percent
0

-3

-6

-9

-12

-15
EMDEs with current EMDEs wi
account deficits account su

Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Notes: Average cumulative changes in exchange rates since January 1, 2020 based on 14
current account deficits in 2019 and eight EMDEs with estimated current account surpluses
lines indicate the interquartile range. Last observation is May 28, 2020.
Return to Read Me
EMDEs with current
ccount surpluses

1, 2020 based on 14 EMDEs with estimated

ent account surpluses in 2019. Vertical orange
0.
 Exchange rates 75 percentile
EMDEs with current account deficits -8.7 3.5
EMDEs with current account surpluses -3.3 2.7
25 percentile
4.3
3.2
Figure 1.8.F. Projected change in FDI inflows to EMDEs, by
Percent 2001-2019 average
30 2020

15

-15

-30

-45
EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR S

Source: Institute for International Finance, International Monetary Fund, World Bank.
Note: EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America a
Caribbean, MNA = Middle East and North Africa, SAR = South Asia, SSA = Sub-Saharan A
2020 are estimates by the Institute for International Finance. Sample includes 56 EMDEs.
Return to Read Me
 to EMDEs, by region

average 2001-2019 average

2020

SAR SSA EMDEs

nd, World Bank.

LAC = Latin America and the
SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Data for
includes 56 EMDEs.
EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR SSA EMDEs
12.5 12.3 8.8 10.0 18.7 25.6 9.4
-21.9 -26.3 -20.3 -36.3 -11.6 -5.2 -21.4
Figure 1.9.A. Commodity price changes since January 2020
Percent
25
0
-25
-50
-75 Natural rubber

Silver
Oil

Coal

Platinum
Natural gas

Base metals

Source: World Bank.

Note: Figure shows the change in the monthly average of commodity prices between Janua
last observation, which is May 2020. Price changes for “Base metals” and “Food” show Wo
Sheet indexes. Oil price is unweighted average of Brent, WTI and Dubai prices.
Return to Read Me
e January 2020
Oil
Silver Percent change -50.7

Food

Gold
Base metals

prices between January 2020 and the

and “Food” show World Bank Pink
bai prices.
Coal Natural gas Natural rubber Platinum Base metals Silver Food
-27.4 -26.8 -21.9 -20 -14.4 -9.5 -9.1
Gold
9.9
Figure 1.9.B. Brent crude oil price
US$/bbl OPEC+ fail to OP
agree to cuts agree
65
55
45 COVID-19
human-to-
35 human
25 transmission
confirmed
15
1
8
15
22
29
36
43
50
57
64
71
78

Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.

Note: Vertical lines denote January 22, 2020; March 9, 2020; April 13, 2020. Last observati
Return to Read Me
 Date
to OPEC+ 1/1/2020

s agree to cuts

1/20/2020
64
71
78
85
92
99
106

2/7/2020

, 2020. Last observation is May 28, 2020.

2/27/2020

3/18/2020

4/7/2020
4/27/2020

5/15/2020

5/28/2020
Brent Crude Oil Price
66.3
66.6
69.0
69.0
68.5
65.9
65.5
65.3
64.5
64.9
64.4
64.8
65.2
64.7
63.9
62.2 ###
61.6
60.0
58.2
59.3
58.8
58.0
56.3
53.2
53.1
55.0
54.5
53.9
53.0
54.0
56.2
56.4
57.2
57.4
57.3
59.1
58.5
57.9
55.6
54.3
52.7
50.8
50.0
52.7
51.7
51.6
50.0
45.3 ###
32.3
36.6
34.5
31.2
33.6
27.9
27.4
24.6
26.2
25.7
26.4
27.0
26.7
26.2
24.5
22.0
21.5
20.4
24.9
29.9
28.1
26.8
27.8
26.6
26.3 ###
27.1
24.6
22.1
23.2
24.0
22.8
17.3
19.4
20.1
20.6
18.3
18.8
20.7
23.7
23.5
24.8
28.3
27.5
27.2
28.6
27.8
27.2
27.9
30.1
31.5
34.3
33.4
34.6
35.1
34.5
35.0
35.6
33.2
34.9
Figure 1.9.C. Oil prices during past episodes of stress
Index, 100=t Previous rece
120 Min
9/11
100

80

60

40

20
tttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Days
12345678911111111112222222222333333333344444444445555555555666666666677

Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.

Note: Start dates for events are the first trading day before a major event occurred: Septem
9/11 and January 22, 2020 for COVID-19. If data are unavailable, the start date is the first d
data prior to the event date. Shaded area indicates range over the four global recessions: 1
and 2008. Last observation is May 28, 2020.
Note: Start dates for events are the first trading day before a major event occurred: Septem
9/11 and January 22, 2020 for COVID-19. If data are unavailable, the start date is the first d
data prior to the event date. Shaded area indicates range over the four global recessions: 1
and 2008. Last observation is May 28, 2020.
Return to Read Me
 of stress
Days Min

ious recessions t
t+1
100
94.7
t+2 88.5
t+3 90.1
t+4 93.1
t+5 82.9
t+6 81.3
t+7 82.4
t+8 84.1
t+9 81.9
t+10 78.6
t+11 83.1
t+12 84
t+13 77.8
t+14 79.1
t+15 80.4
t+16 79.1
t+17 78.2
t+18 81.2
t+19 80.9
t+20 75.9
t+21 79.4
t+22 76.4

tttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt t+23
t+24
72.6
68

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ t+25
t+26
71.3
73.8
55555555556666666666777777777788888888889 t+27
t+28
71.4
66.1
t+29 67.6
t+30 63.6
t+31 62.9
vent occurred: September 10, 2001 for t+32 61.8
start date is the first day of available t+33 67.1
ur global recessions: 1974, 1981, 1990, t+34 65.3
t+35 66.9
t+36 59.7
t+37 55.2
t+38 57.5
t+39 58.9
t+40 58.8
t+41 60.5
t+42 57.1
t+43 53.7
t+44 53.3
t+45 55.6
t+46 53.6
t+47 53.1
t+48 53
t+49 49.3
t+50 50.4
t+51 55.3
t+52 51.6
t+53 55.3
t+54 54.4
t+55 54.8
t+56 49.2
t+57 46.6
t+58 46.6
t+59 43.3
t+60 40.7
t+61 44.5
t+62 42.6
t+63 43.5
t+64 48.6
t+65 47.6
t+66 45.7
t+67 45.7
t+68 46.7
t+69 44.4
t+70 45.1
t+71 42.5
t+72 41.4
t+73 37.5
t+74 38.4
t+75 39.3
t+76 41.6
t+77 41.1
t+78 46.7
t+79 48.1
t+80 48.1
t+81 50.9
t+82 51.8
t+83 47
t+84 45.8
t+85 45.5
t+86 44
t+87 45.9
t+88 46.2
t+89 45.8
t+90 54.9
Previous recessions 9/11 COVID-19
0 100 100
5.3 105.9 98.3
11.5 101.8 96.5
9.9 102.2 93.6
6.9 106.5 95.4
19.2 102.4 94.6
27.4 98.2 93.2
23.2 93.5 90.6
20.9 91.5 85.6
25.3 89.2 85.3
27.5 75.5 88.5
16.9 77.2 87.6
16.6 79.5 86.6
22.2 78.7 85.2
20.9 80.4 86.9
19.6 77.8 90.4
20.9 76.1 90.7
21.8 75.5 92
18.8 76.7 92.2
19.1 75.4 92.2
24.1 74.8 95
20.6 75.4 94
23.6 76 93.1
25.1 77.6 89.4
29.7 74.9 87.4
26.4 75.6 84.8
23.9 76.1 81.8
26.2 73.5 80.5
31.6 72.2 84.8
30.1 75.2 83.1
34.1 73.9 83
34.8 73.7 80.4
35.9 74.8 72.8
30.6 73.8 52
32.4 74.2 58.8
30.7 74.8 55.5
38 74.7 50.2
42.5 72.5 54
40.2 70 44.9
38.8 70.7 44
38.9 69.5 39.5
37.1 68.1 42.2
40.6 69 41.4
44 72.5 42.5
44.4 76.7 43.5
30.6 73 42.9
32.6 74.5 42.2
33 67.4 39.5
33.2 60.9 35.5
36.9 62.8 34.5
35.7 64.1 32.9
30.9 68.3 40.1
34.6 67.7 48
30.9 73.6 45.1
31.7 71.4 43.1
31.3 68 44.7
37 70.4 42.8
39.6 69.1 43.1
39.6 68 43.5
42.8 70.7 39.6
45.4 71.2 38.5
41.7 69.6 37.4
43.6 69.4 38.6
42.7 66.1 36.7
37.6 68.2 27.9
38.6 64.9 31.2
40.5 64.5 32.3
35.9 65.5 33.2
34.9 63.9 29.4
37.1 68.1 30.2
36.4 67.4 33.2
39.1 67.8 38.1
40.2 69 37.7
 44 67.8 39.8
43.1 68.5 45.5
42.2 67.5 44.2
40 70 43.7
40.4 71.1 46
34.8 72.5 44.7
33.5 72.2 43.7
33.5 70.7 44.8
30.7 72.1 48.5
29.8 74.7 50.7
34.5 73.5 55.2
35.8 79 53.7
36 78.5 55.7
37.6 77 56.4
35.6 72.2 55.5
35.3 73.7 56.3
35.7 72.3 57.2
26.6 68.4 53.4
Figure 1.9.D. Years with the largest declines in oil demand
Percent
0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

Source: BP statistical review; International Energy Agency; World Bank

Note: Figure shows the 10 largest declines in oil demand since 1965. Years on the x-axis in
in which the decline occurred. Data for 2020 are IEA estimates.
Return to Read Me
n oil demand
Year
2020
1980
1981
1982
1974
2009
1975
2008
1983
1993

Years on the x-axis indicate the year

Oil demand decline
-8.6
-4.1
-3.1
-2.7
-1.4
-1.0
-0.8
-0.7
-0.2
-0.2
Figure 1.10.A. Stringency measures and COVID-19 cases in
Percent Cases per 100,0
Stringency measur
100 Confirmed cases (R
80

60

40

20

0
Commodity Commodity LIC
exporters importers

Source: Johns Hopkins University; Oxford University; World Bank.

Note: Sample includes 144 EMDEs, of which 91 are commodity exporters, 64 are commodi
LICs. Last observation is May 28, 2020. Aggregates calculated with U.S. dollar GDP weigh
market exchange rates.
Return to Read Me
 ID-19 cases in EMDEs and LICs
per 100,000 people Commodity
exporters
Commodity
importers
y measures LICs

d cases (RHS) 75
60

45

30

15

0
y LICs

rters, 64 are commodity importers, and 33 are

U.S. dollar GDP weights at 2010 prices and
Stringency measures Confirmed cases (RHS)
93.4 65.9
66.7 19.4
87.5 5.5
Figure 1.10.B. Change in remittance inflows in 2020, by EMD
Percentage-point change
0

-1

-2

-3
SAR

LAC
ECA

SSA

MNA

Source: World Bank.

Note: EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America a
Caribbean, LICs = Low-income countries, LMICs= Low- and Middle-Income countries, MNA
and North Africa, SAR = South Asia, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Figure shows the simple a
projected change between 2019 and 2020 remittances as a share of 2019 GDP. Sample in
EMDEs.
Note: EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America a
Caribbean, LICs = Low-income countries, LMICs= Low- and Middle-Income countries, MNA
and North Africa, SAR = South Asia, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Figure shows the simple a
projected change between 2019 and 2020 remittances as a share of 2019 GDP. Sample in
EMDEs.
Return to Read Me
n 2020, by EMDE region
ECA
Change in inflows -2.4
MNA

EAP

LMICs

LAC = Latin America and the

ncome countries, MNA = Middle East
re shows the simple average of the
2019 GDP. Sample includes 141
SAR LAC SSA MNA EAP LMICs
-1.6 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -1.4
Figure 1.10.C. Health care spending in EMDEs and LICs in 2
Percent of GDP
Interquarti
5 Q1
4

0
Commodity EMDEs Commodity
importers exporters

Source: World Bank.

Note: LICs = Low-income countries. Sample includes 150 EMDEs, with 58 and 82 commod
exporters, and 25 LICs.
Return to Read Me
s and LICs in 2016
Commodity
importers
Interquartile range EMDEs
Commodity
exporters
Q1 LICs

ommodity LICs
porters

th 58 and 82 commodity importers and

Q1 Interquartile range Median
2.2 2.2 3.1
1.6 2.4 2.7
1.4 2.1 2.3
0.8 1.2 1.2
Figure 1.10.D. Share of economies experiencing annual con
Percent
80
EMDEs

60

40

20

0
1975 1982 1991 200
Source: World Bank.
Note: The horizontal axis indicates the year of each global recession. Sample includes 86 E
61 EMDE commodity importers. Shaded area indicates forecasts.
Return to Read Me
 annual contractions in activity
Year EMDEs
1975 20.7
1982 35
1991 30.5
2009 35.4
2020 78.2

2009 2020

mple includes 86 EMDE commodity exporters and

Average from 1960-2019, excluding global recession years
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7 ###
Figure 1.10.E. Change in activity indicators in EMDEs and L
Percent
March 2020 April 2020
0

-20

-40

-60
Retail Air Retail
and pollution and
recreation recreation
EMDEs L

Source: Air Quality Open Data Platform; Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports; W
Note: Data reflect monthly percent change relative to the baseline period of January 3, 202
and recreation” reflect data on visits and length of stay and are calculated by Google. “Air p
matter (PM2.5) air pollution. Sample includes 93 EMDEs and 15 LICs for “Retail and recrea
LICs for “Air pollution”. The last observation is May 21, 2020 for “Retail and recreation” and
pollution”.
Note: Data reflect monthly percent change relative to the baseline period of January 3, 202
and recreation” reflect data on visits and length of stay and are calculated by Google. “Air p
matter (PM2.5) air pollution. Sample includes 93 EMDEs and 15 LICs for “Retail and recrea
LICs for “Air pollution”. The last observation is May 21, 2020 for “Retail and recreation” and
pollution”.
Return to Read Me
MDEs and LICs
EMDEs
2020 May 2020 LICs

etail Air
nd pollution
creation
LICs

obility Reports; World Bank.

of January 3, 2020 to February 6, 2020. “Retail
by Google. “Air pollution” measured as particle
“Retail and recreation” and 53 EMDEs and 7
d recreation” and May 29, 2020 for “Air
and March 2020 April 2020 May 2020
recreation
Air -21.9 -55.0 -44.1
pollution
and -16.3 -26.0 -32.1
recreation
Air -11.3 -35.9 -32.6
pollution -21.7 -33.6 -42.1
Figure 1.10.F. LIC sovereign borrowing costs

Percent Ethiopia Mozambique

15

12

3
1/1/2020 2/1/2020 3/3/2020 4/3/2020
Source: Bloomberg; World Bank.
Note: Data for Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Rwanda reflect yields on the 2024, 2031, and 20
observation is May 29, 2020.
Return to Read Me
 Date Ethiopia

ambique Rwanda 1/2/2020

1/3/2020
4.6
4.59
1/6/2020 4.59
1/7/2020 4.44
1/8/2020 4.42
1/9/2020 4.43
1/10/2020 4.41
1/13/2020 4.41
1/14/2020 4.42
1/15/2020 4.38
1/16/2020 4.37
1/17/2020 4.37
1/20/2020 4.37
1/21/2020 4.39
1/22/2020 4.37
1/23/2020 4.44
1/24/2020 4.5
1/27/2020 4.67
1/28/2020 4.62
1/29/2020 4.63
1/30/2020 4.7
1/31/2020 4.73
2/3/2020 4.76
2/4/2020 4.75
2/5/2020 4.7
2/6/2020 4.65
3/2020 5/4/2020 2/7/2020
2/10/2020
4.7
4.71
2/11/2020 4.65
2/12/2020 4.58
2/13/2020 4.55
024, 2031, and 2023 Eurobonds, respectively. Last 2/14/2020 4.55
2/17/2020 4.55
2/18/2020 4.51
2/19/2020 4.51
2/20/2020 4.47
2/21/2020 4.51
2/24/2020 4.61
2/25/2020 4.67
2/26/2020 4.74
2/27/2020 4.82
2/28/2020 5.2
3/2/2020 5.11
3/3/2020 5.06
3/4/2020 5.01
3/5/2020 5.08
3/6/2020 5.34
3/9/2020 6.41
3/10/2020 6.65
3/11/2020 6.88
3/12/2020 7.91
3/13/2020 7.89
3/16/2020 8.28
3/17/2020 8.37
3/18/2020 9.37
3/19/2020 9.71
3/20/2020 9.77
3/23/2020 10.81
3/24/2020 10.42
3/25/2020 9.67
3/26/2020 9.6
3/27/2020 9.21
3/30/2020 9.56
3/31/2020 9.46
4/1/2020 9.73
4/2/2020 9.41
4/3/2020 9.26
4/6/2020 9.03
4/7/2020 8.64
4/8/2020 8.51
4/9/2020 8.35
4/10/2020 8.35
4/13/2020 8.33
4/14/2020 8.24
4/15/2020 8.55
4/16/2020 8.52
4/17/2020 8.48
4/20/2020 9.14
4/21/2020 9.88
4/22/2020 9.95
4/23/2020 9.82
4/24/2020 9.86
4/27/2020 10.07
4/28/2020 10.88
4/29/2020 10.63
4/30/2020 10.25
5/1/2020 10.08
5/4/2020 10.16
5/5/2020 9.92
5/6/2020 9.87
5/7/2020 9.87
5/8/2020 9.87
5/11/2020 9.8
5/12/2020 9.92
5/13/2020 10.23
5/14/2020 10.63
5/15/2020 10.49
5/18/2020 10.36
5/19/2020 9.59
5/20/2020 8.44
5/21/2020 8.26
5/22/2020 8.38
5/25/2020 8.38
5/26/2020 8.21
5/27/2020 8.17
5/28/2020 8.24
5/29/2020 8.4
Mozambique Rwanda
8.08 4.19
8.09 4.25
8.09 4.2
8.08 4.15
8.07 4.08
8.03 4.06
7.96 4.06
7.92 4
7.92 4
7.9 3.96
7.74 3.94
7.74 3.94
7.71 3.95
7.72 3.95
7.72 3.93
7.79 3.95
7.79 3.94
7.82 4.02
7.79 3.97
7.8 3.95
7.82 3.96
7.84 3.97
7.85 3.96
7.85 3.91
7.85 3.86
7.84 3.81
7.85 3.82
7.86 3.85
7.86 3.77
7.84 3.75
7.84 3.69
7.84 3.68
7.84 3.68
7.82 3.68
7.83 3.69
7.84 3.64
7.84 3.69
7.85 3.71
7.89 3.77
7.91 3.82
8.11 4.03
8.14 4.08
8.09 4.08
8.06 4
7.98 3.93
7.98 3.94
8.07 4.27
8.85 5.27
9.08 5.37
9.3 5.63
9.69 8.78
9.75 8.86
9.99 9.12
10.28 9.13
11.53 10.05
11.7 10.2
11.71 10.09
11.73 10.28
11.66 10.35
11.57 10.07
11.54 10.1
11.58 10.17
10.83 10.3
10.73 10.46
10.67 10.52
10.7 10.46
10.76 10.26
10.78 10.16
10.58 9.94
10.82 9.88
10.8 9.56
10.8 9.56
10.8 9.56
10.82 9.48
10.85 9.33
10.87 9.41
10.89 9.43
11.1 9.86
11.25 10.15
11.37 9.96
11.38 9.68
11.45 9.91
11.74 9.92
11.8 10.15
11.87 9.07
12.05 8.93
12.12 9.01
12.11 9.09
11.78 8.97
11.8 8.95
11.7 8.95
11.7 8.96
11.68 8.94
11.6 8.86
11.64 8.88
11.71 8.98
11.61 8.94
11.26 8.83
11.21 8.57
10.64 8.38
10.55 8.34
10.61 8.46
10.61 8.46
10.35 8.32
10.26 8.35
10.24 8.41
10.26 8.4