Malthusian Theory:: Time (Years)

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Malthusian theory:

In his 1798 work, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus examined


the relationship between population growth and resources. From this, he
developed the Malthusian theory of population growth in which he wrote that
population growth occurs exponentially, so it increases according to birth rate.
For example, if every member of a family tree reproduces, the tree will continue
to grow with each generation. On the other hand, food production increases
arithmetically, so it only increases at given points in time. Malthus wrote that,
left unchecked, populations can outgrow their resources. Let the population be
‘P’ which grows at the rate that doubles every 25 years.

Pt =P0 er where r=0.028 & agricultural produce ‘A’ grows at an arithmetic rate in

a linear manner by ‘a’ units every year.


At = A0 + aT Assuming that P0=100 , A0 =100.

Time(years) 0 25 50 75 100 125 150

Population 100 200 400 800 1600 3200 6400

Food Supply 100 350 600 850 1100 1350 1600

Food Supply
Population 1 1.75 1.5 1.06 0.69 0.42 0.25

This table gives an illustration of the Malthusian theory


From this, we can conclude that populations will grow faster than the supply of
food. This exponential population growth will lead to a shortage of food. As
shown in the above figure, ‘the point of crisis’ also called Malthusian
catastrophe.

Population Control: Malthus then argued that because there will be a


higher population than the availability of food, many people will die from the
shortage of food. He theorized that this correction would take place in the form
of Positive Checks (or Natural Checks) and Preventative Checks. These checks
would lead to the Malthusian catastrophe, which would bring the population
level back to a ‘sustainable level.

Positive Checks: He believed that natural forces would correct the imbalance
between food supply and population growth in the form of natural disasters
such as floods and earthquakes and human-made actions such as wars and
famines. These are operated through the death rate.
Preventive Checks: To correct the imbalance, Malthus also suggested using
preventative measures to control the growth of the population. These measures
include family planning, late marriages, and celibacy. These are operated
through the control in birth rate. He also proposed restraint which means
postponement of marriage until a person is adequately well off to support a
family and the practice abstinence outside the marriage.

Malthusian Trap: The Malthusian Trap (or “Malthusian Population Trap”) is the
idea that higher levels of food production created by more advanced agricultural
techniques create higher population levels, which then lead to food shortages
because the higher population needs to live on land that would have previously
used to grow crops. Even as technological advancement would normally lead to
per capita income gains, theorizes Malthus, these gains are not achieved because in
practice the advancement also creates population growth. Once the population
exceeds what food supplies can support, this supposedly creates a Malthusian crisis
with widespread famine as well as rampant disease. This ends up decreasing the
population to earlier levels. The reality, however, has been that population growth
has not itself created the crisis that Malthus predicted. We will discuss the ways in
which the Malthusian Trap has been disproven in the following section.

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