Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Lecture 10: 2k Factorial Design

Montgomery: Chapter 6

Fall , 2005
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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

2k Factorial Design
• Involving k factors
• Each factor has two levels (often labeled + and −)
• Factor screening experiment (preliminary study)
• Identify important factors and their interactions
• Interaction (of any order) has ONE degree of freedom
• Factors need not be on numeric scale
• Ordinary regression model can be employed

y = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 x2 + β12 x1 x2 + 

Where β1 , β2 and β12 are related to main effects, interaction effects defined
later.

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

22 Factorial Design
Example:

factor replicate

A B treatment 1 2 3 mean

− − (1) 28 25 27 80/3

+ − a 36 32 32 100/3

− + b 18 19 23 60/3

+ + ab 31 30 29 90/3

• Let ȳ(A+ ), ȳ(A− ), ȳ(B+ ) and ȳ(B− ) be the level means of A and B.
• Let ȳ(A− B− ), ȳ(A+ B− ), ȳ(A− B+ ) and ȳ(A+ B+ ) be the treatment
means

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Define main effects of A (denoted again by A ) as follows:

A = m.e.(A) = ȳ(A+ ) − ȳ(A− )

= 12 (ȳ(A+ B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B− )) − 12 (ȳ(A− B+ ) + ȳ(A− B− ))

= 12 (ȳ(A+ B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B− ) − ȳ(A− B+ ) − ȳ(A− B− ))
= 12 (−ȳ(A− B− ) + ȳ(A+ B− ) − ȳ(A− B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B+ ))
=8.33

• Let CA =(-1,1,-1,1), a contrast on treatment mean responses, then

m.e.(A)= 12 ĈA

• Notice that

A = m.e.(A) = (ȳ(A+ ) − ȳ.. ) − (ȳ(A− ) − ȳ.. ) = τ̂2 − τ̂1

Main effect is defined in a different way than Chapter 5. But they are
connected and equivalent.

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

• Similarly

B = m.e.(B) = ȳ(B+ ) − ȳ(B− )

= 12 (−ȳ(A− B− ) − ȳ(A+ B− )) + ȳ(A− B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B+ ) =-5.00

Let CB =(-1,-1,1,1), a contrast on treatment mean responses, then B =m.e.(B )= 12 ĈB

• Define interaction between A and B

1
AB = Int(AB) = (m.e.(A | B+ ) − m.e.(A | B− ))
2

1 1
= (ȳ(A+ | B+ ) − ȳ(A− | B+ )) − (ȳ(A+ | B− ) − ȳ(A− | B− ))
2 2
= 12 (ȳ(A− B− ) − ȳ(A+ B− ) − ȳ(A− B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B+ )) =1.67

Let CAB = (1, −1, −1, 1), a contrast on treatment means, then
AB =Int(AB )= 12 ĈAB

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Effects and Contrasts

factor effect (contrast)

A B total mean I A B AB

− − 80 80/3 1 -1 -1 1

+ − 100 100/3 1 1 -1 -1

− + 60 60/3 1 -1 1 -1

+ + 90 90/3 1 1 1 1

• There is a one-to-one correspondence between effects and constrasts, and

constrasts can be directly used to estimate the effects.

• For a effect corresponding to contrast c = (c1 , c2 , . . . ) in 22 design

1X
effect = ci ȳi
2 i

where i is an index for treatments and the summation is over all treatments.

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Sum of Squares due to Effect

• Because effects are defined using contrasts, their sum of squares can also be
calculated through contrasts.

• Recall for contrast c = (c1 , c2 , . . . ), its sum of squares is

P 2
( ci ȳi )
SSContrast = P 2
ci /n
So

(−ȳ(A− B− ) + ȳ(A+ B− ) − ȳ(A− B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B+ ))2

SSA = = 208.33
4/n

(−ȳ(A− B− ) − ȳ(A+ B− ) + ȳ(A− B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B+ ))2

SSB = = 75.00
4/n

(ȳ(A− B− ) − ȳ(A+ B− ) − ȳ(A− B+ ) + ȳ(A+ B+ ))2

SSAB = = 8.33
4/n

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Sum of Squares and ANOVA

P 2
2
y...
• Total sum of squares: SST = i,j,k yijk − N

• Error sum of squares: SSE = SST − SSA − SSB − SSAB

• ANOVA Table
Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean

Variation Squares Freedom Square F0

A SSA 1 MSA
B SSB 1 MSB
AB SSAB 1 MSAB
Error SSE N −3 MSE
Total SST N −1

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SAS file and output

option noncenter
data one;
input A B resp;
datalines;
-1 -1 28
-1 -1 25
-1 -1 27
1 -1 36
1 -1 32
1 -1 32
-1 1 18
-1 1 19
-1 1 23
1 1 31
1 1 30
1 1 29
;
proc glm;
calss A B;

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

model resp=A|B;
run;
---------------------------------------------------
Sum of
Source DF Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F
Model 3 291.6666667 97.2222222 24.82 0.0002
Error 8 31.3333333 3.9166667
Cor Total 11 323.0000000

A 1 208.3333333 208.3333333 53.19 <.0001

B 1 75.0000000 75.0000000 19.15 0.0024
A*B 1 8.3333333 8.3333333 2.13 0.1828

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Analyzing 22 Experiment Using Regresson Model

2
Because every effect in 2 design, or its sum of squares, has one degree of freedom, it
can be equivalently represented by a numerical variable, and regression analysis can be
directly used to analyze the data. The original factors are not necessasrily continuous.
Code the levels of factor A and B as follows

A x1 B x2
- -1 - -1
+ 1 + 1

Fit regression model

y = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 x2 + β12 x1 x2 + 

The fitted model should be

A B AB
y = ȳ.. + x1 + x2 + x1 x2
2 2 2
i.e. the estimated coefficients are half of the effects, respectively.

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SAS Code and Output

option noncenter
data one;
input x1 x2 resp;
x1x2=x1*x2;
datalines;
-1 -1 28
-1 -1 25
-1 -1 27
........
1 1 31
1 1 30
1 1 29
;
proc reg;
model resp=x1 x2 x1x2;
run

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Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F

Model 3 291.66667 97.22222 24.82 0.0002

Error 8 31.33333 3.91667
Corrected Total 11 323.00000

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept 1 27.50000 0.57130 48.14 <.0001

x1 1 4.16667 0.57130 7.29 <.0001
x2 1 -2.50000 0.57130 -4.38 0.0024
x1x2 1 0.83333 0.57130 1.46 0.1828

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

23 Factorial Design
Bottling Experiment:

factor response

A B C treatment 1 2 total

− − − (1) -3 -1 -4

+ − − a 0 1 1

− + − b -1 0 -1

+ + − ab 2 3 5

− − + c -1 0 -1

+ − + ac 2 1 3

− + + bc 1 1 2

+ + + abc 6 5 11

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

factorial effects and constrasts

Main effects:

A = m.e.(A) = ȳ(A+ ) − ȳ(A− )

= 41 (ȳ(− − −) + ȳ(+ − −) − ȳ(− + −) + ȳ(+ + −) − ȳ(− − +)

+ȳ(+ − +) − ȳ(− + +) + ȳ(+ + +))
=3.00
The contrast is (-1,1,-1,1,-1,1,-1,1)

B : (−1, −1, 1, 1, −1, −1, 1, 1), B = 2.25

C : (−1, −1, −1, −1, 1, 1, 1, 1), C = 1.75

2-factor interactions:
AB : A × B componentwise, AB=.75
AC : A × C componentwise, AC=.25
BC : B × C componentwise, BC=.50
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3-factor interaction:

1
ABC = int(ABC) = (int(AB | C+) − int(AB | C−))
2
= 14 (−ȳ(− − −) + ȳ(+ − −) + ȳ(− + −) − ȳ(+ + −)
+ȳ(− − +) − ȳ(+ − +) − ȳ(− + +) + ȳ(+ + +))
=.50

The contrast is (-1,1,1,-1,1,-1,-1,1)= A × B × C.

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Contrasts for Calculating Effects in 23 Design

factorial effects

A B C treatment I A B AB C AC BC ABC
− − − (1) 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1

+ − − a 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1

− + − b 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1

+ + − ab 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1

− − + c 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1

+ − + ac 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1

− + + bc 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1

+ + + abc 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Estimates:
P
ȳi.
grand mean:
23
P
ci ȳi.
effect :
23−1
Contrast Sum of Squares:
P
( ci ȳi. )2 2
SSeffect = = 2n(effect)
23 /n
Variance of Estimate

σ2
Var(effect) =
n23−2
t-test for effects (confidence interval approach)

effect ± tα/2,2k (n−1) S.E.(effect)

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Regresson Model
Code the levels of factor A and B as follows

A x1 B x2 C x3
- -1 - -1 - -1
+ 1 + 1 + 1

Fit regression model

y = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 x2 + β3 x3 + β12 x1 x2 + β13 x1 x3 + β23 x2 x3 + β123 x1 x2 x3 + 

The fitted model should be

A B C AB AC BC ABC
y = ȳ.. + x1 + x2 + x3 + x1 x2 + x1 x3 + x2 x3 + x1 x2 x3
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

i.e. β̂ = effect
2
, and

σ2 σ2
Var(β̂) = =
n2k n23

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SAS Code: Bottling Experiment

data bottle;
input A B C devi;
datalines;
-1 -1 -1 -3
-1 -1 -1 -1
1 -1 -1 0
1 -1 -1 1
-1 1 -1 -1
-1 1 -1 0
1 1 -1 2
1 1 -1 3
-1 -1 1 -1
-1 -1 1 0
1 -1 1 2
1 -1 1 1
-1 1 1 1
-1 1 1 1
1 1 1 6
1 1 1 5

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

;
proc glm;
class A B C; model devi=A|B|C;
output out=botone r=res p=pred;
run;
proc univariate data=botone pctldef=4;
var res; qqplot res / normal (L=1 mu=est sigma=est);
histogram res / normal; run;
proc gplot; plot res*pred/frame; run;

data bottlenew;
set bottle;
x1=A; x2=B; x3=C; x1x2=x1*x2; x1x3=x1*x3; x2x3=x2*x3;
x1x2x3=x1*x2*x3; drop A B C;

proc reg data=bottlenew;

model devi=x1 x2 x3 x1x2 x1x3 x2x3 x1x2x3;

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

SAS output for Bottling Experiment

ANOVA Model:

Dependent Variable: devi

Sum of
Source DF Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F
Model 7 73.00000000 10.42857143 16.69 0.0003
Error 8 5.00000000 0.62500000
CorTotal 15 78.00000000

A 1 36.00000000 36.00000000 57.60 <.0001

B 1 20.25000000 20.25000000 32.40 0.0005
A*B 1 2.25000000 2.25000000 3.60 0.0943
C 1 12.25000000 12.25000000 19.60 0.0022
A*C 1 0.25000000 0.25000000 0.40 0.5447
B*C 1 1.00000000 1.00000000 1.60 0.2415
A*B*C 1 1.00000000 1.00000000 1.60 0.2415

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Regression Model:

Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept 1 1.00000 0.19764 5.06 0.0010

x1 1 1.50000 0.19764 7.59 <.0001
x2 1 1.12500 0.19764 5.69 0.0005
x3 1 0.87500 0.19764 4.43 0.0022
x1x2 1 0.37500 0.19764 1.90 0.0943
x1x3 1 0.12500 0.19764 0.63 0.5447
x2x3 1 0.25000 0.19764 1.26 0.2415
x1x2x3 1 0.25000 0.19764 1.26 0.2415

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

General 2k Design

• k factors: A, B , . . . , K each with 2 levels (+,−)

• consists of all possible level combinations (2k treatments) each with n replicates
• Classify factorial effects:

type of effect label the number of effects

main effects (of order 1) A, B , C , . . . , K k

 
k
2-factor interactions (of order 2) AB , AC , . . . , JK  
2
 
k
3-factor interactions (of order 3) ABC ,ABD,. . . ,IJK  
3
... ... ...
 
k
k-factor interaction (of order k ) ABC · · · K  
k

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

• In total, how many effects?

• Each effect (main or interaction) has 1 degree of freedom
full model (i.e. model consisting of all the effects) has 2k − 1 degrees of
freedom.

• Error component has 2k (n − 1) degrees of freedom (why?).

• One-to-one correspondence between effects and contrasts:
– For main effect: convert the level column of a factor using − ⇒ −1 and
+⇒1
– For interactions: multiply the contrasts of the main effects of the involved
factors, componentwisely.

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

General 2k Design: Analysis

• Estimates:
P
ȳi
grand mean :
2k
For effect with constrast C = (c1 , c2 , . . . , c2k ), its estimate is
P
ci ȳi
effect = (k−1)
2
• Variance
σ2
Var(effect) =
n2k−2
what is the standard error of the effect?

• t-test for H0 : effect=0. Using the confidence interval approach,

effect ± tα/2,2k (n−1) S.E.(effect)

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Using ANOVA model:

• Sum of Squares due to an effect, using its constrast,

P 2
ci ȳi. k−2 2
SSeffect = = n2 (effect )
2k /n

• SST and SSE can be calculated as before and a ANOVA table including SS due to
the effests and SSE can be constructed and the effects can be tested by F -tests.

Using regression:

• Introducing variables x1 , . . . , xk for main effects, their products are used for
interactsions, the following regression model can be fitted

y = β0 + β1 x1 + . . . + βk xk + . . . + β12···k x1 x2 · · · xk + 

The coefficients are estimated by half of effects they represent, that is,

effect
β̂ =
2

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Unreplicated 2k Design
Filtration Rate Experiment

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

factor
A B C D filtration

− − − − 45
+ − − − 71
− + − − 48
+ + − − 65
− − + − 68
+ − + − 60
− + + − 80
+ + + − 65
− − − + 43
+ − − + 100
− + − + 45
+ + − + 104
− − + + 75
+ − + + 86
− + + + 70
+ + + + 96

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Unreplicated 2k Design

• No degree of freedom left for error component if full model is fitted.

• Formulas used for estimates and contrast sum of squares are given in Slides
26-27 with n=1

• No error sum of squares available, cannot estimate σ 2 and test effects in both
the ANOVA and Regression approaches.

• Approach 1: pooling high-order interactions

– Often assume 3 or higher interactions do not occur

– Pool estimates together for error

– Warning: may pool significant interaction

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Unreplicated 2k Design

• Approach 2: Using the normal probability plot (QQ plot) to identify significant
effects.

– Recall

σ2
Var(effect) =
2(k−2)
If the effect is not significant (=0), then the effect estimate follows
σ2
N (0, 2(k−2) )
– Assume all effects not significant, their estimates can be considered as a
σ2
random sample from N (0, 2(k−2) )

– QQ plot of the estimates is expected to be a linear line

– Deviation from a linear line indicates significant effects

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Statistics 514: 2 Factorial Design

Using SAS to generate QQ plot for effects

goption colors=(none);

data filter;
do D = -1 to 1 by 2;do C = -1 to 1 by 2;
do B = -1 to 1 by 2;do A = -1 to 1 by 2;
input y @@; output;
end; end; end; end;
datalines;
45 71 48 65 68 60 80 65 43 100 45 104 75 86 70 96
;

data inter; /* Define Interaction Terms */

set filter;
AB=A*B; AC=A*C; AD=A*D; BC=B*C; BD=B*D; CD=C*D; ABC=AB*C; ABD=AB*D;
ACD=AC*D; BCD=BC*D; ABCD=ABC*D;

proc glm data=inter; /* GLM Proc to Obtain Effects */

class A B C D AB AC AD BC BD CD ABC ABD ACD BCD ABCD;
model y=A B C D AB AC AD BC BD CD ABC ABD ACD BCD ABCD;

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

estimate ’A’ A 1 -1; estimate ’AC’ AC 1 -1;

run;

proc reg outest=effects data=inter; /* REG Proc to Obtain Effects */

model y=A B C D AB AC AD BC BD CD ABC ABD ACD BCD ABCD;

data effect2; set effects;

drop y intercept _RMSE_;
proc transpose data=effect2 out=effect3;
data effect4; set effect3; effect=col1*2;
proc sort data=effect4; by effect;
proc print data=effect4;

/*Generate the QQ plot */

proc rank data=effect4 out=effect5 normal=blom;
var effect; ranks neff;
proc print data=effect5;
symbol1 v=circle;
proc gplot data=effect5;
plot effect*neff=_NAME_;
run;

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Ranked Effects

Obs _NAME_ COL1 effect neff

1 AC -9.0625 -18.125 -1.73938
2 BCD -1.3125 -2.625 -1.24505
3 ACD -0.812data filter;
do D = -1 to 1 by 2;do C = -1 to 1 by 2;
do B = -1 to 1 by 2;do A = -1 to 1 by 2;
input y @@; output;
end; end; end; end;
datalines;
45 71 48 65 68 60 80 65 43 100 45 104 75 86 70 96
;5 -1.625 -0.94578
4 CD -0.5625 -1.125 -0.71370
5 BD -0.1875 -0.375 -0.51499
6 AB 0.0625 0.125 -0.33489
7 ABCD 0.6875 1.375 -0.16512
8 ABC 0.9375 1.875 -0.00000
9 BC 1.1875 2.375 0.16512
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10 B 1.5625 3.125 0.33489

11 ABD 2.0625 4.125 0.51499
12 C 4.9375 9.875 0.71370
13 D 7.3125 14.625 0.94578
14 AD 8.3125 16.625 1.24505
15 A 10.8125 21.625 1.73938

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QQ plot

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Filtration Experiment Analysis

Fit a linear line based on small effects, identify the effects which are potentially
significant, then use ANOVA or regression fit a sub-model with those effects.

1. Potentially significant effects: A, AD, C, D, AC .

2. Use main effect plot and interaction plot

3. ANOVA model involving only A, C , D and their interactions (projecting the

original unreplicated 24 experiment onto a replicated 23 experiement)

4. regression model only involving A, C , D , AC and AD .

5. Diagnostics using residuals.

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Interaction Plots for AC and AD

* data step is the same.

proc sort; by A C;
proc means noprint;
var y; by A C;
output out=ymeanac mean=mn;

symbol1 v=circle i=join; symbol2 v=square i=join;

proc gplot data=ymeanac; plot mn*A=C;
run;

* similar code for AD interaction plot

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

ANOVA with A, C and D and their interactions

proc glm data=filter;

class A C D;
model y=A|C|D;
==================================
Source DF Sum Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F
Model 7 5551.437500 793.062500 35.35 <.0001
Error 8 179.500000 22.437500
Cor Total 15 5730.937500

Source DF Type I SS Mean Square F Value Pr > F

A 1 1870.562500 1870.562500 83.37 <.0001
C 1 390.062500 390.062500 17.38 0.0031
A*C 1 1314.062500 1314.062500 58.57 <.0001
D 1 855.562500 855.562500 38.13 0.0003
A*D 1 1105.562500 1105.562500 49.27 0.0001
C*D 1 5.062500 5.062500 0.23 0.6475
A*C*D 1 10.562500 10.562500 0.47 0.5120
*ANOVA confirms that A, C, D, AC and AD are significant effects

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Regression Model
* the same date step

data inter; set filter; AC=A*C; AD=A*D;

proc reg data=inter; model y=A C D AC AD;

output out=outres r=res p=pred;

proc gplot data=outres; plot res*pred; run;

===========================
Dependent Variable: y
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F
Model 5 5535.81250 1107.16250 56.74 <.0001
Error 10 195.12500 19.51250
Corrected Total 15 5730.93750

Root MSE 4.41730 R-Square 0.9660

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Dependent Mean 70.06250 Adj R-Sq 0.9489

Coeff Var 6.30479

Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept 1 70.06250 1.10432 63.44 <.0001

A 1 10.81250 1.10432 9.79 <.0001
C 1 4.93750 1.10432 4.47 0.0012
D 1 7.31250 1.10432 6.62 <.0001
AC 1 -9.06250 1.10432 -8.21 <.0001
AD 1 8.31250 1.10432 7.53 <.0001

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Response Optimization / Best Setting Selection

Use x1 , x3 , x4 for A, C , D ; and x1 x3 , x1 x4 for AC ,AD respectively. The regresson

model gives the following function for the response (fitration rate):

y = 70.06 + 10.81x1 + 4.94x3 + 7.31x4 − 9.06x1 x3 + 8.31x1 x4

Want to maximize the response. Let D be set at high level (x4 = 1)

y = 77.37 + 19.12x1 + 4.94x3 − 9.06x1 x3

Contour plot

goption colors=(none);
data one;
do x1 = -1 to 1 by .1;
do x3 = -1 to 1 by .1;
y=77.37+19.12*x1 +4.94*x3 -9.06*x1*x3 ; output;
end; end;
proc gcontour data=one; plot x3*x1=y;
run; quit;

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Contour Plot for Response Given D

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Residual Plot

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

Some Other Issues

• Half normal plot for (xi ), i = 1, . . . , n:

– let x̃i be the absolute values of xi
– sort the (x̃i ): x̃(1) ≤ ... ≤ x̃(n)
n+i
– calculate ui = Φ−1 ( 2n+1 ), i = 1, ..., n
– plot x̃(i) against ui
– look for a straight line

Half normal plot can also be used for identifying important factorial effects

• Other methods to identify significant factorial effects (Lenth method).

Hamada&Balakrishnan (1998) analyzing unreplicated factorial experiments: a
review with some new proposals, statistica sinica.

• Detect dispersion effects

• Experiment with duplicate measurements
– for each treatment combination: n responses from duplicate

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Statistics 514: 2k Factorial Design

measurements

– calculate mean ȳ and standard deviation s.

– Use ȳ and treat the experiment as unreplicated in analysis

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