Winnerslowtoucheconomy PDF
Winnerslowtoucheconomy PDF
Winnerslowtoucheconomy PDF
boardofinnovation.com
lowtoucheconomy.com
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Philippe De Ridder
CEO | Co-founder | Author | Speaker
[email protected]
Connect on LinkedIn
5. The future of X
- 10 expert perspectives
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
Chapters
5. The future of X
- 10 expert perspectives
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
Welcome to the Low Touch Economy
The Low Touch Economy is the new state of our society
and economy, permanently altered by Covid-19. It is
characterized by low-touch interactions, health and
safety measures, new human behaviors, and permanent
industry shifts.
Redesigned factory floors to keep Zoom babysitters helping parents at Attempts to make dining out safe
workers safe. home while doing chores or work. and enjoyable at the same time.
Robots replacing high-risk human Visiting vulnerable family members Virtual concerts attempting to
interactions in service businesses. behind glass. replace offline events. 7
Restrict & nudge People move New consumer needs emerge. Pressure on
people the virus around Acceleration of product adoption family budget
Behavior shifts
People change how they interact
with each other and with businesses.
TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS
Between & within nations,
people and/or goods Plateau after vaccine
Full recovery to a
new normal
LIMIT LARGE GATHERINGS
No events, limit interactions to
close family,…
The era of the Low Touch Economy will bring a lot of instability. Organizations need to +
adapt quickly. But able to create high impact via new
innovations and improved business models
10
12
China opened up theaters again, but For months, Singapore had the spread of the virus under
quickly reversed this decision over control without implementing strict measures. Then, in late
fears of a second wave. April, it introduced a lockdown as well.
13
14
China, April – Schools gradually South Korea, May 5 – Sports leagues resumed South Korea, May 6 – Several amusement
reopened with strict guidelines in games – without spectators. They expect to allow parks were reopened with physical
place. spectators and larger gatherings again soon. distancing measures in place. Pre-entry
temperature checks were common.
15
Sources: @rameshlaus
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
Always try to understand
the full local context
EXAMPLE: SWEDEN
17
3 year impact
The same strict policies don't seem to get support in large
Prepare forparts of Europe
aggressive new and the Americas,
L-curve recovery: Failed Defend, improve
Aggressive push for growth
which entrants. Reinvent and
means it will take them longer to bounce back. Last survivor strategy or
pandemic control, wide- competitive position,
and market share create totally new position, abandon market
spread bankruptcies and and find new growth
or abandon
credit defaults
18
20
Autonomous vehicles
‣ Human drivers are costly and a potential safety hazard for
passengers. The rollout of autonomous shuttles or delivery Milan and many other cities are
vehicles will be accelerated (e.g. Beep Shuttles were used in adding “temporary” bike lanes.
Florida to delivery tests to the Mayo Clinic) Many city redesigns will
become permanent.
21
Book a keynote
24
Are you prepared for
The Low Touch Economy?
CHECKLIST 1
‣ Limit third-party interactions ‣ Develop and expand new ‣ Hand-offs will take place outside ‣ Consolidate entrances and exits to ‣ Contractors only when
External ‣ Change interaction formats (business) models for customer warehouse with no interaction control traffic essential
interaction ‣ Screen external collaborators touchpoints & interactions ‣ Provide catered lunches ‣ Self-screening before on-
‣ External-guest registration & screening premise by visitors
‣ Distributed workforce ‣ Reduce store hours or close ‣ Reschedule trainings to online, ‣ Continue remote working ‣ Stagger shifts
‣ Identify jobs that might be locations remote or small groups ‣ Limit office work by ‘batching’ ‣ Gap between shifts
Staffing fulfilled remotely full time ‣ Increase store hours but spread ‣ Boost hiring for increased sick leave employees based on ID number or
‣ New job routines with attendance by appointment & increased demand project teams
staggered with on-site/WFH
‣ Compensation adapted to risk ‣ Bonuses for staff working high- ‣ Pre-payment of bonuses ‣ Increased sick-leave when in
HR ‣ Dedicated bonus or benefits risk periods or jobs ‣ Quarantined paid leave with doubt
n.a.
benefits ‣ Salary adaption ‣ Health checklists temperature screening or antibody ‣ Additional hourly production
tests bonus
‣ New protocols to respond to ‣ PPE provided ‣ No stand-up meetings – replaced ‣ PPE ‣ Advanced screening and
positive cases ‣ Limit number of people on-site, with signage and new personal ‣ Temperature screening at entry & exit employee contact tracing
Personal
‣ Employee risk profiling eventually replace by communications forms ‣ Increase hand washing & sanitizer ‣ Establish a response team in
safety
‣ Quarantine policies automation (self-checkout, stations case of positive screening
‣ PPE guidelines vending machines…)
‣ Reduce risk of virus spread ‣ Installation of protective screens ‣ No more post-shift assessments, ‣ Install protective screens & reconfigure ‣ Modification of work areas
‣ New spatial configuration and sanitizer stations ‣ Staggering of shifts distance between desks ‣ Daily disinfectant spray after
Physical
‣ Limit interactions ‣ Increase cleaning intervals on ‣ Increased signage ‣ Eliminate open floor plan closing hours
workspace
‣ Cleaning protocols specific high-touch areas ‣ Reconfigure break rooms for ‣ One-way walkways ‣ Staggered break times and
isolation ‣ Improved air filtration social distancing canteens
5. The future of X
- 10 expert perspectives
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
Some businesses are slow
to accept reality.
Blockbuster release dates are being pushed Cruise lines are rushing to start selling tickets Airlines are working towards phasing out
back with just weeks to spare. Christopher again, though it’s very unlikely foreign nations restricted scheduling; Many are planning
Nolan's Tenet, for example, is stubbornly will be willing to accept an infected ship into (hoping) to restart operations early Summer
fixed for July 17. Clearly, studios are still their ports. already.
betting on theatres fully reopening soon.
29
30
(so far) N = +750, companies all industries, global All companies 100%
Many companies experienced significant parts of the economy will jump back to a normal
revenue losses, but some managed to grow in state, but not all. If just 20% of companies don't
these turbulent times. The differences can be recover quickly, it will have several ripple effects
extreme. in our economy.
After a couple of weeks, some companies were Based on our conversations with companies in
already going bankrupt, while others couldn't every possible industry, just 15% of companies
hire fast enough to cope with rising demand. seem to have seen a positive impact so far. 32
Once the health crisis is under control, many
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
Based on your assessment, can you adapt your strategy?
IMPACT ON YOUR ORGANIZATION
Direct impact of Covid-19 / Indirect impact of economic recession / Ability to adapt fast
3 year impact
Prepare for aggressive
L-curve recovery: Failed Defend, improve
Aggressive push for new entrants. Reinvent Last survivor strategy or
pandemic control, and competitive position,
growth and market share and create totally new abandon market
wide-spread bankruptcies, and find new growth
position, or abandon
and credit defaults
Platform to connect Tools to support Healthy food delivered Safe at-home Alternatives for
with remote customers e-commerce at home workouts supply chain
E.g. ByteDance (Tiktok) E.g. Shopify E.g. Panera Bread E.g. Peloton E.g. Beyond Meat
35
ByteDance
This Chinese streaming giant exploded onto the international scene during
the Covid-19 crisis with its video-sharing social network, TikTok – reaching a
world full of people craving fun and interaction while at home. At the same
time, quick decision-making and partnerships have placed ByteDance at the
forefront of film streaming and online education in China as schools and
cinemas were forced to close.
Shopify
This e-commerce platform is touted as one of players best placed to
challenge Amazon’s dominance with 1 million online businesses and over
100,000 point-of-sale systems. When Covid-19 forced the rapid closure of
brick-and-mortor stores, Shopify was able to help them quickly switch and
retain crucial lost sales revenue.
Panera Bread
This restaurant chain quickly responded to the Covid-19 crisis by introducing several
redesigns to their business model. It could become one of the bigger brands able to
shift successfully to a new format, ready for a Low Touch Economy.
Peloton
This at-home exercise company couldn’t have predicted that most gyms
would be forced to close across large swathes of the world giving it prime
access to people searching for home workout options. Questions remain
about if its success can be sustained as lockdowns subside, but it’s almost
1-million subscribers put Peloton in a very good position.
Beyond Meat
This plant-based meat producer is the leader in a growing pack of meat
alternatives. After years of developing their own ‘almost real’ recipes, the
coronavirus has presented the perfect moment to gain ground as a crisis
envelopes the US meat supply chain. With double the profit margins, and
without the climate and animal cruelty-related baggage of traditional
meat producers, Beyond Meat is ready to pounce.
3 year impact
Prepare for aggressive
L-curve recovery: Failed Defend, improve
Aggressive push for new entrants. Reinvent Last survivor strategy or
pandemic control, and competitive position,
growth and market share and create totally new abandon market
wide-spread bankruptcies and find new growth
position, or abandon
and credit defaults
different levels
Find new
clients/market
e.g.switch from
B2B to B2C
However, if you need to make a more ambitious e.g. create a new product,
move, potentially in a new white space, you will e.g. improved e.g.alternative for another need of your existing
need to operate in a lot more uncertainty. Make branding client
Keep existing logistic process
sure to validate multiple ideas in parallel to clients/market
increase your rate of success.
Keep your Find new
existing offering offering
Outcome: A clear vision and guideline to navigate the difficult months ahead.
Strategic initiatives to go on the offense with clear road maps for each concept
(new offering/pivot/…), and top-level buy-in on all initiatives.
5. The future of X
- 10 expert perspectives
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
What can businesses do to
quickly restart and become part
of a new Low Touch Economy?
In this section, we'll illustrate experiments by
companies. If you face similar challenges,
these examples may inspire you to develop
your own solution.
45
The biggest roadblocks for companies right now
Political instability
Cash-flow/financial constraints
46
Solutions to copy?
‣ Go Instore offers a solution for salespeople in retail
enabling them to guide customers remotely via live
video and audio.
‣ B2B sales chatbots and virtual events are on the rise. Go Instore Matterport (real estate 3D scans)
47
Solutions to copy?
‣ Some restaurants are switching to serving diners in
small compartments for added safety while
maintaining the social experience.
‣ Retail and service businesses are adopting Drive-through strip club Isolated compartment restaurant
appointment-based models.
48
Solutions to copy?
‣ Robots used in hospitals to disinfect rooms with UV
light are being redesigned for use in hotels.
49
2 options
50
2 options
51
“People go on an
international holiday…”
To be served/for convenience
To reduce stress
52
54
5. The future of X
- 10 expert perspectives
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
A forced reset of our society is
the perfect opportunity to
explore new areas for growth!
56
Over the last decades, product adoption curves got steeper
lowtoucheconomy.com
now more than ever
Adoption
100%
50%
lowtoucheconomy.com
Example: Late majority catches up in e-commerce
male
Adoption
E-commerce
100%
Over 1/3 of people had
never shopped online
pre-pandemic
(US DATA)
50%
lowtoucheconomy.com
Example: E-health not just for early adopters anymore
Adoption
100%
E-therapy
50%
0%
Time
source: Forbes.com Apr 2, 2020
today
lowtoucheconomy.com
Keep an eye on new habits (like these) to understand
where potential white spaces can emerge.
Contactless payments are already up 40% (according Lots of people have adopted healthier lifestyles – People have been investing in e-bikes for recreational
to Mastercard, April 30) almost 45% of US citizens started cooking at home use and as a safer alternative to public transport.
using healthy ingredients. (source). Use of yoga, VanMoof (e-bike brand) noticed a global increase in
meditation, & mindfulness apps has increased. sales of 48% while in Britain purchases rose by 184%
between Feb and April.
61
+$
-$
62
Find new
clients/market
e.g.switch from
If you want/need to move away from B2B to B2C
your core business, you will most
likely end up with a different
business model. If speed is critical,
acquisitions in white spaces should
be considered. e.g. switch to a similar,
Their snow canon business line was set to see They were able to modify their current product to
a long drop in demand so EmiControls had to tap into a new demand: disinfection of large open
find new growth areas. spaces. SIMILAR NEW REDESIGN
Intelligence Industrielle normally offers Today they offer interactive signage and crowd
industrial IoT sensors and dashboards to track control solutions for pharmacists and retailers.
NEW NEW SIMILAR
machines at industrial sites.
A drop in tourism and fashion pushed Granadilla is now putting most of their marketing
swimwear brand Granadilla in a new direction. towards new business lines: selling healthy food
boxes via e-commerce. SIMILAR SIMILAR NEW
There will be less demand for room.com is exploring new markets with a full
private phone booths for open offices as redesign of their product. Safe-testing booths for
REDESIGN NEW NEW
people continue to work from home. medical personal is one of their growth options.
Offline art workshops and team-building ArtNight went all in and switched to online art
sessions will take a while to recover. courses.
NEW REDESIGN SIMILAR
66
- opportunistic companies
3. New consumer behavior High
When people act differently, they face new needs.
with the right assets (they're
in the pole position)
- companies hit by the crisis
4. Societal changes High
(they need to survive)
Shift in demographics, new norms, and values. (But Delayed)
- new ventures created to
jump on a new market
5. New tech Low
When it becomes easier to solve specific problems.
HIGH
Consumer
behavior
Industry
shifts
shifts
Expected MEDIUM
New
impact on the regulation
Societal
Low Touch Economy
changes
New
New technology
resources
LOW
HIGH
Consumer
behavior
Industry
shifts
shifts
Expected MEDIUM
New
impact on the regulation
Societal
Low Touch Economy
changes
New
New technology
resources
LOW
71
72
HIGH
Consumer
behavior
Industry
shifts
shifts
Expected MEDIUM
New
impact on the regulation
Societal
Low Touch Economy
changes
New
New technology
resources
LOW
74
75
HIGH
Consumer
behavior
Industry shifts
shifts
Expected MEDIUM
New
impact on the regulation
Societal
Low Touch Economy
changes
New
New technology
resources
LOW
77
78
HIGH
Consumer
behavior
Industry shifts
shifts
Expected MEDIUM
New
impact on the regulation
Societal
Low Touch Economy
changes
New
New technology
resources
LOW
80
81
82
HIGH
Consumer
behavior
Industry shifts
shifts
Expected MEDIUM
New
impact on the regulation
Societal
Low Touch Economy
changes
New
New technology
resources
LOW
84
HIGH
Local automated
Remote
warehouses Private remote Rental equipment
Dark stores health tracking
diagnostic tools at home
Personal security
Locally distributed B2B admin tools services
6 triggers for white spaces
MEDIUM businesses sensitive data B2B tools
Office Elderly
scaling services IT support
redesigns
Industry shift Digital venture New niche Available
Authentication New health
partnerships insurances workforce
services tech
New regulation Remote activity
Risk profile Supply chain monitoring
New consumer behavior calculators transparency Data
Local tourism modeling
Societal change partnerships
Alternative family
gatherings Surveillance
LOW
86
lowtoucheconomy.com
Match shifts with industries to spot white spaces (examples)
MEDIA REAL ESTATE CONSTRUCTION AUTOMOTIVE HOSPITALITY
EXAMPLE SHIFTS NEUTRAL IMPACT LIMITED IMPACT LIMITED IMPACT SEVERELY IMPACTED SEVERELY IMPACTED
Value-added crowd 3D scanning service for Shared/ public buildings Restaurants spread out to
control: Make it more Increase pay for generalist Tracking services to create
retail to scan their products renovated to accommodate nearby unique buildings
attractive for clients to contractors, so the same cool-down times between
so a significant part of waypoints or pathways to (experience!) in the area so
participate in the economy in group of people can do the usage of shared
regular customer journey steer the flow of visitors in people can eat with enough
smaller groups. different tasks. vehicles.
can start remote.. order to avoid each other. space between them.
MONITOR
1 NEW NORMAL
IDENTIFY
2 OPPORTUNITIES
VALIDATE
3 & LAUNCH
89
5. The future of X
- 10 expert perspectives
latest updates: lowtoucheconomy.com
10 expert views
91
92
not venture out to brick-and-mortar New technologies may enable more
The lasting impact on
stores to buy goods, e-commerce has contactless deliveries in the future.
logistics made it possible to get everything Fully autonomous drones, whether
they need and allowed shops to flying or driving, are of limited
The logistics industry continues to remain in business. All this made significance for now. Besides
deal with the effects of the lockdown possible thanks to the efforts of restrictive legislation, it remains
measures that are in place to stem the parcel delivery companies to adapt to difficult to scale up drones to manage
spread of Covid19. At some point, the situation and to continue the quantity of parcels that need to
these confinements will be eased and providing their services throughout be processed. The crisis has not
life can slowly resume, no longer the crisis. To maintain a safe social changed the basic economics of
restricted by public health concerns. distance, contact-less delivery these innovations. There are some
However, people may behave processes were introduced. This applications where drone logistics is
differently than they did before the means there is no need to sign for useful today (e.g. rural area drug
crisis. Certain attitudes and habits receipt on a device and parcels are deliveries), but for now it is unlikely
EXPERT CONTRIBUTION
may have changed which may have a not handed over personally, but left at they will change the dominant
Kim MacGillavry significant and lasting impact on the door or in a safe place. delivery business model. There are
logistics, especially for parcel delivery Consumers across the world have other alternatives to delivering
#LOGISTICS #ECOMMERCE companies who have a lot of shown an enormous respect for the parcels already today that might
Kim has extensive experience interaction with the general public. efforts companies like UPS have become more acceptable coming out
leading transformation and Consumers still want their shipments made and fully embraced these new of the crisis. Parcel lockers and drop-
innovation projects in a variety of delivered to their homes. They delivery methods. It is too early to tell off and collection locations are good
multinational companies. He has generally don’t want their shipments whether these new policies will last examples of existing delivery
worked in logistics for 20 years in once the crisis has subsided. It would channels that consumers can use to
dropped off at their doorstop and left
different roles ranging from parcel
unattended, and for legal reasons be a good thing for the consumers, facilitate the delivery of their parcels
up to road freight services. His
sellers are not keen on it either. In sellers and parcel delivery companies as they continue to buy more online
current role is Strategy Director at
UPS Europe. practice this means that drivers have alike. than they did before.
to make multiple delivery attempts
before a successful delivery. Not only
LinkedIn profile a costly process, but not valued by
consumers either. Attitudes may be
changing though. While people could 93
Post-pandemic platforms theaters. As movie theaters remain and Deliveroo and located in lower
shutdown for an extended period, rent neighborhoods and closer to
movie studios have started launching delivery destinations, will aggregate
Even as most companies struggle to movies via direct to streaming food preparation. These platforms
cope with the realities of a post- channels, bringing into question a leverage their market-wide demand
pandemic world, the BigTech firms - long-held industry norm of the launch data to better source and prepare
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, “window” during which theaters had food as well as better manage
Facebook - have performed exclusive access to movie releases. delivery logistics. We are in the midst
exceptionally well. Relatively smaller This fundamentally shifts bargaining of a massive shift in industry
firms like Netflix and Shopify have power away from theaters to online structures and power. As above, firms
also generated significant platforms. The combination of that aggregate demand and attract
shareholder value. Most of these firms demand migration and a shift in and consolidate supply, will be best
are platform firms, which aggregate bargaining power will likely create a positioned to exploit these massive
demand and supply across their value permanent shift in power towards shifts towards new business
EXPERT CONTRIBUTION network. And therein lies their ability Amazon and Netflix. opportunities.
to succeed in a crisis. As we emerge
Sangeet Paul Choudary Consider another example. Shutdown
into a post-pandemic world, we are restaurants are struggling to stay Re-imagine the value network for
#PLATFORMS already beginning to see the first afloat while delivery services are your business and ask yourself:
#NEWBUSINESSMODELS signs of massive value migration. growing rapidly. One might argue - How can you leverage a shift in
Sangeet is the author of Platform again that this will return to normal demand to attract consumer
Revolution and Platform Scale and Consider the rise in demand for post-lockdown. Except that it won’t. engagement and data?
a C-level advisor to 35+ Fortune 500 online streaming services like Netflix
firms. A WEF Young Global Leader, - How can you leverage this to
and Amazon Prime. One might argue
he serves on multiple boards and As restaurants go bankrupt, the need negotiate and consolidate the supply
ministerial committees. His work has
that things will return to normal.
for establishing kitchens in high-rent in your value network in your favor?
been selected thrice by HBR among Except that they won’t. restaurant locations will be Platforms that capitalize on these
their Top 10 Must Reads
questioned. As delivery and drive-ins current shifts will emerge as the
compilations.
For one, this rise in streaming is replace restaurants, dark kitchens, run dominant businesses in the
coupled with a shutdown of movie by delivery platforms like Uber post-pandemic world.
LinkedIn profile
Platformthinkinglabs.com 94
outbreak. It is designed to rise to the people’s mental health particularly
Telemedicine features
challenge of a sudden escalation in those who are already fragile and
emerge as a resilient demand. First, by allowing patients to suffering from isolation. Should
avoid saturating health facilities for an minimizing human contact continue
crisis management tool initial diagnosis, and second by to be prescribed, this could generate
contributing to the reduction of a new social anxiety. As mental health
Every major crisis causes a reshuffling contaminating risks for healthcare support is already one of the next
of the cards. In the health sector, one workers and patients, especially those decade’s leading health challenges,
the biggest changes we are most vulnerable. By pushing usage of such anxiety would without a doubt
observing in the patient-doctor telemedicine, the Covid crisis is likely exacerbate this need.
relationship is the massive adoption to make remote consultations a trend
of telemedicine. likely to continue in the future. Key Takeaways
Telemedicine contributes to
From coordinating care delivery to
Anticipating social distancing anxiety massively familiarizing patients and
EXPERT CONTRIBUTION consulting remotely or monitoring
Telemedicine is also benefiting from doctors with a bigger digital health
patients, digital health ecosystems are
Olivier Desbiey already in place in Europe, the U.S.
reactive regulatory support in many ecosystem
countries with lower out-of-pocket Telehealth regulations are quickly
#HEALTH #TELEMEDICINE and Asia. While certain players have
#MENTALHEALTH expenses for patients, and more adapting to accompany this trend
made their telemedicine services free
flexibility for doctors in the tools they Telemedicine is an appropriate
Olivier is economist by training for doctors, AXA Belgium has opened
use to consult remotely. response to the Covid-19
graduated from Panthéon-Sorbonne its online consultation service for free
University and explorer at the to Belgian citizens during the crisis. specificities both in its treatment
intersections of technology and Usage is reaching an unprecedented According to the Imperial College methods as well in serving to
public policy by passion. As AXA level with teleconsultations rising Covid-19 Response Team social control the associated risks of the
Head of Foresight, he scouts the distancing measures could last for up epidemic – in particular
from 3,000 a month in 2019 to 6,000
horizon of emerging trends and
a day during the crisis in France. to 18 months. It could weigh on reassuring those susceptible to
weak signals to make sure that the
Group is equipped to anticipate & mental health issues.
innovate. Telemedicine has all the features to
LinkedIn profile enable an effective response to
situations such as the Covid-19
95
To answer consumer demand, some contactless payments. South Korea
How are retailers
retailers have been forced to has seen a 30% increase in card and
adapting to the new transform their operations and supply mobile payments between January to
chain management, and strengthen
Low Touch Economy? new services like online ordering,
February, 2020.
wago.com 98
Covid-19: Winners, Winning and losing business
models Offer real-time up-sells of band
losers, & new business There are winners and losers, and merchandise (such as branded face-
opportunities it’s the latter where we’ll find trillions masks!).
of dollars of unmet needs because
companies either can’t operate, or Key takeaways
Leaders must first take stock of their
are doing so with a low ceiling on Define the pre-Covid-19 business
runway and determine if their
capacity. model, and determine which
current business model will help
them weather the Covid-19 storm. aspect needs reinventing.
But we can turn losers into winners.
Explore adjacent
opportunity areas
Shift to new
white-space opportunities
Need a hand?
Get in touch!
Philippe De Ridder
CEO | Co-founder | Author | Speaker
[email protected]
Connect on LinkedIn