Ref.

Ares(2017)5838827 - 29/11/2017

D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 1

D4.1: First draft edition of future visions

and pathways
Action acronym ConnectedFactories

Action Full Title Industrial scenarios for connected factories

Grant Agreement Number 723777

Instrument Coordination and Support Action

Project coordinator EFFRA

Authors report TNO, FPM, VTT, Tecnalia and EFFRA

Deliverable Number D 4.1

Deliverable Title First draft edition of future visions and pathways

Lead Beneficiary EFFRA

Work package WP4

Work package leader TNO

Dissemination level Public

Due date according to DoA 1 June 2017

Actual submission date 29 November 2017

The ConnectedFactories project (www.connectedfactories.eu)

is co-funded by the European Community's Horizon 2020
Programme under grant agreement no 723777.
Contact: [email protected]

1
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 2

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

2 INTRODUCTION 5

2.1 Objective of the ConnectedFactories CSA 5

2.2 Objectives of this deliverable 5

2.3 Approach and relation to the other work packages of the ConnectedFactories project. 6

2.4 Approach and methodology 7

3 FIRST DRAFT FUTURE VISION AND FOUR PERSONAS 8

3.1 Overall desired future connected factories 2025 8

3.2 Draft future visions for four personas 9

3.2.1 Positioning and differentiation of the personas 10
3.2.2 Hyperconnected Factories 13
3.2.3 Autonomous Factories 15
3.2.4 Collaborative Product-Service Factories 17
3.2.5 Small-Scale Digitised Factories 19

4 NEXT STEPS 21

4.1 Collecting feedback and using the personas in the other work packages 21

4.2 National and regional workshops 21

4.3 Pathways and dynamic modelling 21

4.3.1 Next steps towards dynamic modelling 21

ANNEX I: LITERATURE OVERVIEW GLOBAL, EUROPEAN AND , INDUSTRY AND DIGITISATION

SCENARIO ANALYSES AND FUTURE STUDIES 25

2
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 3

1 Executive summary

The ConnectedFactories pathways explores pathways to the digital integration and interoperability
of manufacturing systems and processes (“future visions”) to enhance the awareness among
companies of the use of digital technologies in the manufacturing sector, and to equip them with
the knowledge to make informed decisions regarding technology and business model choices. The
project will thereby contribute to the reinforcement of the European manufacturing industries’
position in the international scene.
To establish the baselines for developing scenarios and pathways towards the deployment of digital
platforms for manufacturing, and taking into account current and anticipated needs and challenges,
desired future and pathways to the desired future a framework of so-called ‘personas’ has been
developed. The personas are used to describe different contexts, purposes or user characteristics,
whereas the pathways that are associated to these personas will reflect on how digital platforms can
bring value to different kinds of manufacturing processes, how different digitization approaches will
co-exist or even compete in a concrete business environment. Moreover, the pathways will feature
a plausible causal chain of steps leading from the current state to the desired future. The pathways
to be developed will thereby indicate how research and innovation projects contribute to the
future deployment of digital platforms for manufacturing and will facilitate and stimulate the
discussion and identification of more company-specific innovation strategies.
Building upon the first outcomes of the other work packages, complementary analyses and several
internal consortium workshops a first high level draft description of the overall desired future of
connected factories in 2025 has been made. This includes the key characteristics on how different
platforms and architectures can co-exist, cooperate and compete in a concrete business
environment, and how research and innovation programs and other aspects (standardization,
legislation, etc.) have an impact on the transformation towards connected factories.
Derived from the overall desired future, four personas have been identified that appear to represent
different types of users of digital platforms in terms of needs, challenges and requirements for the
deployment of digital platforms have been identified and mapped to the already ongoing H2020
Research and Innovation projects and new H2020 calls. The mapping showed that the ongoing
projects as well as the upcoming new calls associate with the following personas:
1. Hyperconnected Factories: (Digital Platforms for) networked enterprises in complex,
dynamic supply chains and value networks
2. Autonomous Factories: (Digital Platforms for) optimised and sustainable manufacturing
including advanced human-in-the-loop workspaces
3. Collaborative Product-Service Factories: (Digital Platforms for) data-driven product-service
engineering in knowledge intensive factories
4. Small-Scale Digitised Factories: (Digital Platforms for) mission-focused digitisation for SME-
driven sustainable manufacturing
During the European scenario building workshop held on 28 September in Brussels (as well as
during other meetings and workshops) feedback has been collected on the positioning and
differentiation of the personas. The main conclusion of these meetings and workshops is that the
personas are recognized. Secondly, the personas are co-existing and non-exclusive. In other words:
suppliers or users of digital platforms may fit with more than one of the personas. The persona
“Small-scale digitised factories” seems to be a particular perspective that could be developed within
the three other personas. By adding this persona as a specific perspective within the other personas
it can be made explicit that this type of end-user requires special attention due to its specific needs

3
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 4

and challenges. Furthermore, the meetings and workshops showed that the implementation of new
technologies and digital platforms in companies, through research projects or using commercial
tools, move companies towards a different future in a different persona. There is a symbiosis of the
different stakeholders today that will lead to better positioning tomorrow.
The personas will be an important component of the mapping framework
(www.connectedfactories.eu/mapping-framework) , enabling a better positioning of the projects
within the personas and identifying how the projects contribute to the pathways within or across the
personas. The same applies to the positioning of commercial solutions.
With the next steps the draft overall desired future and the drafts of the four personas will be
circulated for feedback to those that were involved in the process before. In addition, the draft
outlines will be used for further discussion during the series of national and regional workshops. The
first series is scheduled for the first half of 2018. The feedback and output of these workshops will be
used to further adjust and refine the future vision and collect input on the pathways.
The collected input on factors that influence the future development of digitisation of the
manufacturing industry will be used to identify possible steps on how to reach the desired future
from the current state to develop first drafts of the pathways and describe plausible causal chains.
With the use of dynamic modelling of the pathways it will become possible to experience how
technical systems connect to the complex social and business systems. Based on a structural model
describing causal connections between phenomena, it will be shown what behaviour over time
emerges from the connections. The results of this analysis will provide further input to refine and
improve the future vision, pathways and mental models of the stakeholders.

4
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 5

2 Introduction
2.1 Objective of the ConnectedFactories CSA
The ‘digitisation of manufacturing’ connects people, devices, machines and enterprises, and includes
concepts such as 'Industrial Internet', 'digital manufacturing platforms' and the 'Internet of Things'
(IoT).
The ConnectedFactories project establishes a structured overview of available and upcoming
technological approaches and best practices. The project identifies present and future needs and
challenges of the manufacturing industries.
The project explores pathways to the digital integration and interoperability of manufacturing
systems and processes (“future visions”). Hence, ConnectedFactories will enhance the awareness
among companies of the use of digital technologies in the manufacturing sector, but also equip them
with knowledge to make informed decisions regarding technology and business model choices. It will
reinforce the European manufacturing industries’ position in the international scene.

2.2 Objectives of this deliverable

The main objective of this deliverable is to establish the baselines for developing scenarios and
pathways towards the deployment of digital platforms for manufacturing.
Taking account current and anticipated needs and challenges, desired futures and pathways to these
futures are being developed within a framework of so-called ‘personas’. These personas describe
different contexts, purposes or user characteristics.
The pathways that are associated to these personas will reflect on how digital platforms can bring
value to different kinds of manufacturing processes, how different digitization approaches will co-
exist or even compete in a concrete business environment. The pathways should also indicate how
research and innovation projects contribute to the future deployment of digital platforms for
manufacturing.
Pathways will feature a plausible causal chain of steps leading from the current state of the art to the
future vision of how digital platforms will support manufacturing. Herewith, the discussion and
identification of more company-specific innovation strategies will be facilitated and stimulated. The
identification of these steps can involve a backwards approach starting from the future vision of the
operation of digital platforms (‘backcasting’, see Figure 1).

Figure 1 Pathways to the future

5
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 6

The vision, personas and pathways should also incorporate address the role of cross-cutting aspects
such as:
• Standardization
• Regulation
• Economic and market development
• Security
• Business models – ownership – liability
• Social aspects, skills
• Sustainability aspects

2.3 Approach and relation to the other work packages of the ConnectedFactories
project.

Figure 2 ConnectedFactories work packages

Work package 4 ‘Scenario building – technology suppliers – end users’ is running in parallel with the
other work packages. The personas described in this deliverable will complement the digital mapping
framework for characterizing the role and operation of digital platforms on the market (WP1) and
the contribution of research and innovation projects (WP3).
WP2 has contributed to the identification of the personas described in this deliverable and in the
reverse direction the personas will serve as a framework to position better the requirements and
observations resulting from the first series of national and regional workshops.
The series of national and regional workshops will be continued within WP4, focusing on the further
development of the pathways by considering the present industrial state of the art and the
challenges that in particular manufacturing companies and equipment suppliers are facing in the
context of digitization.
Based on the feedback from the workshops in 2018 and 2019 consolidated future vision, personas
and pathways will be developed and published.
6
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 7

Figure 3 Flow chart work package 4 activities

An additional element is dynamic modelling of the future vision, personas and pathways by
translating these into a structural model and creating simulations.
WP5 aims at assuring that the pathways that address the impact of standardization, security, data
liability/ownership and social/skills aspects.
WP6 will make that stakeholders from different PPPs and other programmes are involved in the
process of further developing the pathways.

2.4 Approach and methodology

The following elements are included:
1. The description of an overall desired future and the personas. Based on Factories of the
Future strategy documents, the under WP1 developed mapping structure and the WP2
challenge workshop reports, a draft but concrete and imaginable future vision with personas
has been developed. For each persona an outline has been developed, including descriptions
on the main characteristics to explain the essence and to make the differences between the
personas explicit.
2. The robustness of the first draft of the future vision, personas and pathways has been
assessed in a first workshop on European level with key players and niche actors in Brussels
(28 September 2017). The recommendations captured during this workshop has been
incorporated in the visions and pathways.
3. The third issue is the development of plausible pathways leading from the present to the
each of the personas. With backcasting all relevant factors, events and actions will be
identified to create a causal chain of steps. On the other hand, with the organization of two
series of national and regional workshops in 2018 and 2019, stakeholders will be invited to
assess the future vision and personas and to explore the pathways, as well as to assess the
implications for their innovation strategies.
4. The feedback and output of these workshops will be used to further adjust the approach and
consolidate the future vision, personas and pathways. To stimulate further use the vision,
personas and pathways will be published interactively on the internet, as well as offered as
basic material for additional workshops that can be organized by third parties.
5. In between two series of national and regional workshops (first half of 2018 and 2019) a
European workshop will aim at consolidating the feedback from the national and regional
workshops.
6. The final issue is the dynamic modelling of the pathways to experience how technical
systems connect to the complex social and business systems. A structural model describing
causal connections between phenomena will be developed and through model simulations it
will be shown how and what behavior over time emerges from the connections. The results
of these experiments can lead to revisions and improvements in the future vision, personas,
pathways and mental models of the stakeholders.

7
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 8

3 First draft future vision and four personas

3.1 Overall desired future connected factories 2025

Based on Factories of the Future strategy documents (e.g. Factories of the Future multi-annual
roadmap1, Factories 4.0 and Beyond2, etc.) a first high level description of the overall desired future
of connected factories in 2025 has been made. This high-level description of the desired future
describes the key characteristics of the WP1 mapping structure on how different platforms and
architectures can co-exist, cooperate and compete in a concrete business environment, and how
research and innovation programs and other aspects (standardization, legislation, etc.) have an
impact on the transformation towards connected factories.

Key elements for future of connected factories in 2025 are:

• Flexible systems and machines: functions are distributed throughout the network,
participants interact across hierarchy levels, communication among all participants, product
is part of the network
• Interoperable digital manufacturing platforms situated in-factory and ex-factory (i.e. the
cloud) support agile value networks, advanced manufacturing processes and services for
zero-defect and innovative processes and products, human competences in synergy with
technological progress and drive the circular economy
• Multi-sided eco-system where multiple service providers provide services for a multitude of
users to optimize manufacturing (e.g. production efficiency, uptime, quality, speed,
flexibility, resource-efficiency, etc.)
• Horizontal integrated ad-hoc added-value networks optimized in real-time and vertical
integrated business processes and technical processes that enable continuous engineering
throughout the life cycle
• Service-oriented architecture in which rule-based and situation-controlled cooperation
between machines and human beings is organized
• Platform inter-communication and inter-operability enabled by agreements on industrial
communication interfaces and protocols, common data models and the semantic
interoperability of data

1 http://www.effra.eu/factories-future-roadmap
2 http://www.effra.eu/sites/default/files/factories40_beyond_v31_public.pdf

8
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 9

3.2 Draft future visions for four personas

Figure 4 Four personas to develop pathways to the future

Based on the earlier mentioned analysis of the needs, challenges and requirements for the
deployment of digital platforms within the overall desired future, four personas have been
identified.
1. Hyperconnected Factories: (Digital Platforms for) networked enterprises in complex,
dynamic supply chains and value networks
2. Autonomous Factories: (Digital Platforms for) optimised and sustainable manufacturing
including advanced human-in-the-loop workspaces
3. Collaborative Product-Service Factories: (Digital Platforms for) data-driven product-service
engineering in knowledge intensive factories
4. Small-Scale Digitised Factories: (Digital Platforms for) mission-focused digitsation for SME-
driven sustainable manufacturing
With regards to the deployment of digital platforms, the four identified personas seem to differ on a
number of aspects, varying from ambition, business model, market focus, impact of servitisation to
the type of products/services offered, intensity of data, data ownership, resources available and
skills of the workforce. Above all the impact of digitisation appear to be different for the personas in
terms of their innovation approach and the extent of digitisation of primary and secondary
processes.
Due to these differences the requirements for digital platforms vary as well, for example in terms of
scale, complexity and functions offered, but also in terms of data modelling and analytics, monitoring
and man-machine and machine-machine interaction.

9
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 10

3.2.1 Positioning and differentiation of the personas

During the European scenario building workshop held on 28 September in Brussels as well as during
other meetings and workshops where the personas were presented and discussed, such as the BDVA
Smart Manufacturing Industry Subgroup meeting held on 18 October 20173, feedback has been
collected on the positioning and differentiation of the personas.
The main conclusion of these meetings and workshops is that the personas are recognized. Secondly,
the personas are co-existing and non-exclusive. In other words: suppliers or users of digital platforms
may fit with more than one of the personas. For instance a national-oriented small-scale
manufacturer that works for local manufacturing market and delivers mainstream low-end products
may fit to persona “Small-scale digitised factories”, but in case it is part of an international/global-
oriented supply and value chain around an OEM it may also fit to persona “Hyperconnected
factories” (see Figure 5 for the interrelatedness of the personas).

Figure 5 Interrelatedness of the four personas

The DIGICOR4 project for instance already addresses the small-scale digitised factory-persona as an
specific perspective within its project. Moreover, the persona “Small-scale digitised factories” seems
to be a particular perspective that could be developed within the three other personas. Therefore,
small-scale digitised factories are part of each of the other three personas. By adding this persona as
a specific perspective within the other personas it can be made explicit that this type of end-user
requires special attention due to its specific needs and challenges. Based on these insights the
personas could be positioned as visualized in Figure 6.

3Workshop organised during the BDVA General Assembly

4 The DIGICOR project develops novel collaboration concepts and implements an integrated platform that significantly
reduce the burden to setup production networks and collaboration between SMEs, see: https://www.digicor-project.eu/ for
further information.

10
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 11

Figure 6 Small-scale digitised factories as perspective within the other personas

In Figure 7 the associated projects have been added to illustrate how they can be positioned within
the personas.

Figure 7 Small-scale digitised factories as perspective within the other personas with associated
projects

One of the conclusions of the meetings and workshops is that the implementation of new
technologies and digital platforms in the companies through research projects or using commercial

11
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 12

tools, move companies towards a different future in a different persona. There is a symbiosis of the
different stakeholders today that will lead to better positioning tomorrow. For instance, considering
the Collaborative Product-Service Factories, the implementation of new services in a certain product
permits, in one hand, to improve the knowledge and connection of the supplier with its customer
leading the supplier to a Hyperconnected factory persona while, on the other hand, improve the
customer production performance moving him into the Autonomous Factory persona.
In the following paragraphs detailed descriptions of the four personas and the related requirements
for the deployment of digital platforms are given. In addition, the ongoing H2020 (mainly FoF
projects) as well as upcoming new calls that are associated to the specific persona are indicated.
The next steps are the refinement of the personas and the further development of the pathways
within these personas. This will also be the focus of the regional and national workshops that are
scheduled for the first half of 2018.

12
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 13

3.2.2 Hyperconnected Factories

Description of the persona
• International/global-oriented supply and value chains that
design, develop and produce complex multicomponent
(mass or small series) personalized/customized products
• Compete globally on added value and services
• Trusted interdependent hyperconnected ecosystems,
including all supply and value chain partners (from large international oriented companies,
OEMs, 1st - 5th tier suppliers and partners)
• Communication and information is digitalized, connected and automatically exchanged
within the supply value chains
• Intensive use of supply and value chain data shared and distributed with complex digital
platforms designed (and owned) by the OEM
• Dynamic ecosystems (marketplaces) where every day it is possible to find new suppliers
according to your own needs, based on flexibility and reactivity requirements for the
companies to be in the network (hence both long-term and interchangeable suppliers)
• Digital platforms that are also compatible with the physical processes, so closely connected
with the other existing platforms. Horizontal platforms able to connect all the (multiple)
vertical (commercially available) platforms with each other
• Platforms based on the interaction and communication model of the companies, therefore
on the business rather than on the purely technological aspects
• Selection of the supplier in the digital ecosystem is done by means of proper profiling
mechanisms and thanks to the mapping of business processes
• Examples: Hierarchical cross-border supply chains in automotive, aerospace, machine tools,
automation, electronics
Digital platform characteristics
• Fully customized complex digital platform based on newly developed or customized market
standards
• Fully automated and integrated design process of new products and services with the whole
value and supply chain involved
• Digital platform:
o Collects / shares / distributes real-time data
o Facilitates agile, interactive and dynamic supply and value chain combinations based
on full internal automation of data collection and exchange
o Enables real-time monitoring of the whole supply and value chain, 100%
transparency and optimization of human equipment
• Advanced and intensive man-machine interaction complemented with fully automated and
connected machine-machine interaction (link with ‘Automated Factories’ persona.
• Highly advanced data modelling and analytics based on all available data within the supply
and value chain, complemented with external collected data
• Proactive customer satisfaction based on continuous interactions in a customized context
and production service fully automated using integrated after sales data
• Financial administration based on reversed billing and new supply chain finance models
• Digital platform able to automatically propose a reaction to a decision, and not only to take
the decision itself (e.g. change in the production plan according to the problems with a
supply). Therefore, non-centralised but distributed control able to capture and elaborate all
the relevant information
• Digital platform able to do the match-making of suppliers according to the services provided,
through pay-per-use solutions

13
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 14

Current state
• Communication by emails with suppliers but decision should still be taken according to
human decision on top of given events
Related projects
The following projects contribute to this persona:
• FoF-11-2016 – Value chain level projects: DIGICOR, NIMBLE, COMPOSITION, vf-OS, CREMA,
ROBUSTPLANET, FLEXINET, MANSYS, …
• Projects from the
• Related new H2020 FoF calls: 2017-19:
• The upcoming 2018 call: DT-ICT-07-2018 Agile Value Networks for lot size 1; Pathways to
2025?

14
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 15

3.2.3 Autonomous Factories

General description
• National, international/global-oriented manufacturers that
design, develop and produce mass (consumer) personalized
products and services, scalable agile production, customer
driven, on demand manufacturing
• Compete globally on scale, branding and service
• Individual manufacturers realizing in house automated production based on more flexible supply
chain partnerships
• Optimised and sustainable manufacturing including advanced human-in-the-loop workspaces,
human robot collaboration
• Combined human and machine intelligence
• Variable level of autonomy, human adaptation, humans ‘controlled’ by the system, human as
part of the system, worker in the loop, assistance provided to workers, giving feedback, using AI,
human supervision, human invited when needed
• Modular, plug and produce equipment, faster and intuitive configuration, interoperability of
asset, intuitive programming of devices, programming by doing,
• Intra machine-machine communication and information is digitalized, connected and
automatically exchanged and integrated into the supply chain
• Physical world with digital twins, physical data characteristics, conversion using standardisation,
rules,
• Smart objects i.e. parts, components and products at factory floor
• Operational optimisation with digital twins, in house holistic optimisation, flexibility, OEE,
productivity, etc.
• Intensive use of internal data combined with external (client/user) data shared and distributed
with self-configuring digital platforms orchestrated by the manufacturer
• Examples: consumer goods non-hierarchical supply chains, prosumers, value co-creation
Platform characteristics
• Digital platform based on standards, platforms will configure themselves based on the use/need,
from platform ownership to orchestration (in the cloud?)
• Product owner initiates design process of new products and services with selected partners
• Vertical integration, e.g. from engineering, manufacturing shop floor to business ICT, focus on
factory itself. (Bringing together information from the shop floor, engineering systems, Operative
Technology (OT) systems, Information Technology (IT) systems and the assets or products.)
• Digital Platform:
o shares data with frequent/intensive partners, upon the product owner to decide
which data is shared
o facilitates interactive data exchange over the supply chain based on optimized data
collection and exchange of the core of the automated and connected processes
o enables real-time monitoring, transparent and state-of-the-art equipment - robots
• Human and smart devices, advanced and intensive man-machine interaction complemented
with fully automated machine-machine interaction,
• Human in control, with help from collected data, cognitive assistance (AI), avoid information
overload to human, system invites human when needed, mobility with connectivity
• Smart objects/items at factory floor, automatic identification, data collection, action planning,
reaction to changes, capture of process step data for product life cycle management
• Highly advanced data modelling and analytics based on all in the supply chain available data
complemented with external collected data, reactive to demand (or forecasts) and changes
• Proactive customer satisfaction based on continuous interactions in a customized context and
production service fully automated using integrated after sales data

15
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 16

• Financial administration based on reversed billing and new supply chain finance models
Current state
• Heterogeneous separate systems, separate islands of automation with proprietary
interfaces, poor interoperability of systems, separate systems for engineering,
manufacturing and business domain
• Manufacturing equipment is mixture of old legacy systems and modern automated systems
• Human labour with dedicated automation systems, limited human-robot collaboration,
• Manual data entry, integration by periodic transfer data files, thus own factory floor or
supplier status visibility with delays of days
• Traditional statistical process control methods and manual inspection processes
• Excel run production, MES unknown to most of companies, limited spread sheet analytics
(with excel)
• Agile workflow; use of AGV (automatic guided vehicle), other flexible factory internal logistic,
component and product automatic identification (barcode, RFID) e.g. automotive
• Highly automated, modular systems
• Fast ramp-up for new products
• Worker in the loop, using tables, other wearable solution, personalized information to
human
• Variable level of automation/autonomy, human robot collaboration
• Advanced planning and scheduling (APS) with status feedback from manufacturing

Related projects
The following projects contribute to this persona:
• Ongoing H2020 Research and Innovation projects:
o FoF-11-2016 – Factory automation level: DAEDALUS, FAR-EDGE, AUTOWARE, SAFIRE,
SCALABLE4.0, PREVIEW, RADICLE, Sense&React, Autorecon, RoboPartner ……
o FOF-04-2016 Continuous adaptation of work environments with changing levels of
automation in evolving production systems; Factory2Fit - Empowering and participatory
adaptation of factory automation to fit for workers, A4BLUE - Adaptive Automation in
Assembly For BLUE collar workers satisfaction in Evolvable context, INCLUSIVE - Smart
and adaptive interfaces for INCLUSIVE work environment, HUMAN - Human
MANufacturing, MANUWORK- Balancing Human and Automation Levels for the
Manufacturing Workplaces of the Future
• The upcoming 2018 call: DT-ICT-07-2018: Excellence in manufacturing: zero-defect processes
and products

16
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 17

3.2.4 Collaborative Product-Service Factories

General description
• Regional, national, international/global-oriented
manufacturers that deliver personalized products as a
service
• Networked manufacturers using of a lot of product data in
order to deliver services based on flexible and changing
ad-hoc network collaborations and close interactions with users / clients / customers /
partners
• Design process of new products and services in close collaboration with users / clients /
customers / partners
• Fully automated inter, intra and external communication and information: automated real-
time monitoring and exchange of data with users / clients / customers / partners
• Associated to ICT-driven business models, financial administration is fully automated
(‘commoditisation’ of IT)
• Compete on 24/7 on production as a service
• In some cases the ad-hoc aspects are very strong and hence more dynamic. More different
parties might be joining on a very short time.
Platform characteristics
• Services based on (open) data, shared and distributed with tailored digital platforms owned
by the manufacturer (tailored = customised)
• The digital platform:
o collects / shares / uses real-time (open) data and sources
o facilitates gradually changing, interactive and dynamically evolving interactions with
users / clients / customers / partners (including outside the network)
• There is a need for new business models addressing data. There are several options to be
analyzed:
o data has a prize, where data remain private against payment or service for free
permitting data usage
o permit megadata use, transforming data (private) into megadata (public)
o customer intelligence from several contexts
• Highly advanced data modelling and analytics based on internal and open data
• Data integration among different systems is a big challenge. Competition requires standards.
Semantic standards seem to be a bottleneck.
• Advanced customer satisfaction based on real-time interactions in a personalized and
interactive context and completely servitised using integrated open and after sales data
• Regarding service infrastructure, there are 2 options
o data analytics in remote
o Density of data exchange there could be a requirement for 5G infrastructure:
Increase speed for sure, but has some inconveniences like the requirement of towers
and this involves different stakeholders. And definitely affect the rest of
communications
o data analytics in place
• Big data technologies are quite likely to be required or would bring more value
• Because of many ad-hoc interactions (dynamic eco-system):
o There is a need of trusted network with no need for particular contracts and
agreements. Risk management needs to be addressed.
o Data ownership and liability issues are very important issues. Who is responsible for
quality? Regulation and Legal aspects on ownership/rights of collected data needs to

17
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 18

be clarified. platforms must guarantee data ownership. Not being compliant with
regulations will avoid platform implementation. (Link to regulation, certification,
standardisation)
o Education both in the producers and the users. Producers need to acquire
competences on digitisation like analytics or economics. And get rid of the
reluctance of external parties (this is link with previous point). On the other hand,
education on the customers, due to the lack of knowledge about how servitisation
can change their business
• There is a need for collaboration and orchestration of different stakeholders
o to buy and sell and design, integrating communication tools but more than mail,
phone...
o to improve scheduling, integrating scheduling tools and integrating suppliers data
and integrating external data
o for service design, agility and light weight applications are required.
o Using external capacities. Easy payment is an issue
o There is a need of critical mass
• In many cases involvement of ICT innovators and startups (industrial IoT and Analytics)
• In some cases real-time aspects are also important
• When reaching out to the shop floor: Advanced man-machine interaction (but limited due to
highly automated processes)
Current state
• Heterogeneous and isolated tools with proprietary interfaces
Related projects
The following project contribute to this persona:
• FoF.ICT.2011.7.4: RLW-NAVIGATOR, LINKED-DESIGN, FoF.NMP.2013-8: SELSUS, EASE-R3,
FoF.NMPB.2014.5: ICP4Life, FALCON, MANUTELLIGENCE, etc… FoF.2017.09 : PROPHESY,
PreCoM, etc…
• The upcoming 2018 call: DT-ICT-07-2018: Excellence in manufacturing: zero-defect processes
and products

18
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 19

3.2.5 Small-Scale Digitised Factories

General description
• Local, regional, national-oriented small-scale manufacturers
working for local manufacturing markets with low
transaction costs that design, develop and produce
mainstream low-end products and services, e.g. nails,
wooden shelfs
• (Independent) manufacturers, that are part of supply chains, but operate quite
interdependent
• Compete on price and direct availability
• Individual manufacturers realizing simple products with simple supply chains based on ad-
hoc collaboration
• Limited digitized, connected and automated communication and information
• Limited use of data shared on occasion with standardized and specific cheap modular ‘plug
and play’ functions of digital platforms, such as connectors to other platforms, track-and--
trace, product feedback (related to quality), marketplace access to suppliers, stock and order
information, etc.
• Manufacturers with limited financial resources for digitisation and also very limited
knowledge on digital infrastructure/systems/applications
• Added value of digitalisation to further develop/improve products/services is limited:
digitisation adds value in terms of cost reduction/expenditure of supporting processes, such
as IT, accounting in the cloud, etc.
• Examples: product-oriented SMEs with advanced successful products but limited digitisation,
looking for improved quality and sustainability of their processes, e.g. local sawing mill
Platform characteristics
• Subscription model or per pay per transaction of available and affordable standardized free
or open solutions (e.g. Tradecloud, Supply drive)
• Platform function integrated in already existing limited systems: otherwise no added value
• Translate design of clients into workable/improved designs
• Digital platform:
o enables simple data sharing based on what is available/affordable/required by
clients / customers
o facilitates static and focused collect basic data (e.g. energy consumption, costs,
maintenance, stock levels, orders) primarily on secondary processes depending on
availability of standardized and affordable solutions
o enables simple and affordable monitoring solution of equipment (e.g. cobots)
• Limited man-machine interaction and automated and connected machine-machine
interaction
• Limited data modelling and analytics
• Reactive customer satisfaction based on little to none interaction in a standard context and
offering maintenance/service
• Optimized/automated internal financial administration
Current state
• Faced with lock in effect and ‘bad’ experiences: not an issue if plug and play
• Even cheap platform solutions are too expensive: € 2000 for a specific solution per year
• Added value/ROI of digitisation is unclear

19
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 20

Related projects
The following projects contribute to this persona
• Ongoing H2020 Research and Innovation projects BEinCPPS, AUTOWARE and other I4MS
Experimentation Platforms

20
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 21

4 Next steps

Figure 8 Next steps work package 4

4.1 Collecting feedback and using the personas in the other work packages
The draft personas will be circulated for feedback to those that were involved in the process before,
such as the ConnectedFactories project cluster, the participants of the European scenario building
workshop on 28 September and other programmes and PPPs (linked to Work Packages 6). In
particular Work Package 1 (Market analysis) and Work Package 3 (Projects analysis and cross-project
cooperation) will be supported by the personas. The personas will be an important component of
the mapping framework, enabling a better positioning of the projects within the personas and
identifying how the project contribute to the pathways within or across the personas.

4.2 National and regional workshops

With the organization of two series of national and regional workshops the draft versions of the
future visions and pathways will be used to initiate strategic conversations. For these workshops
regional or national stakeholders will be invited again (in many cases as a follow-up to the first series
of workshops under Work Package 2) to assess the overall desired future and related personas and
to explore the pathways, as well as to assess the implications for their innovation strategies.

The feedback and output of these workshops will be used to further adjust and refine the future
vision and collect input on the pathways. The first series of workshops is scheduled for the first half
of 2018.

4.3 Pathways and dynamic modelling

Through backcasting, the identified factors that influence the future development of digitisation of
the manufacturing industry will be used to identify possible steps on how to reach the desired future
from the current state that require consideration. The outcomes will be used to develop first drafts
of the pathways and describe plausible causal chains leading from here to there.
With dynamic modelling of the pathways it will become possible to experience how technical
systems connect to the complex social and business systems. A structural model describing causal
connections between phenomena will be developed and through model simulations it will be shown
how and what behaviour over time emerges from the connections. The results of these experiments
can lead to revisions and improvements in the future vision, pathways and mental models of the
stakeholders.

4.3.1 Next steps towards dynamic modelling

For scenario modelling one issue is to recognise inter-relationships and inter-dependencies of
findings, causal connections and make them explicit. ”A picture rather than a shopping list of issues”.
Cognitive mapping is one way to find and illustrate causal connections. Simple cognitive mapping
21
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 22

example based on workshop findings in Finland is shown in Figure 9 and reported in project
Deliverable 2.3 Report on challenges and needs per sessions.5

finding payback
for platform
applications on
top of platform

making small progress

renew machiness faster fast ... taking a long
... natural renewall time to make progress
small platform
- switching costs
legacy machiness
with no sensoring slowly integrate
machiness to platform
... all at once
wait for one [winner
platform] to emerge

risk of choosing the

wrong platform

many platforms to
choose from ...
clear best platform
Figure 9 Example of simplified cognitive map

Figure 9 shows an example of a simplified cognitive map. The map visualises a causal chain of
actions/decisions related to the deployment of digital platforms. The arrows (->) mean the causality
”may lead to”, the dots (…) mean opposite poles ”rather than” and the minus (-) mean ”not” or
”opposite of”.

Guidelines for building cognitive maps

• Break down your issue to single phrases.
o E.g. “improve and develop more applications” would be split into two issues:
“improve applications” and “develop more applications”
• Draw causal links.
o Ideas and issues are linked on a causal basis meaning this “may lead to” that.
o Look for the cause and effect: How was that caused? Why does one want to do that?
• Develop causal chains.
o If something is not linked in ask why is that?
o How does it fit in with the rest of what we have?
• Capture opposite poles (when it adds further clues to the issue add the description on …
“rather than”
o e.g. many platforms to choose from rather than a clear best

5 The report is available at http://effra.eu/national-regional-workshops

22
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 23

Cognitive mapping and scenario building

Questions to identify cause-effect relationships for each driver:
• Looking back: what are the reasons behind this driver?
o How would this be achieved or not achieved?
o Explain why
• Looking forward:
o What are or will be the consequences of this driver?
o What will this driver enable or hinder?
o Explain why

”Why” –questions to identify cause-effect relationships: E.g. ”Why do actors slowly integrate
machines to a platform?” ”Because there is a risk of choosing the wrong platform”
Simplified Examples
Based on European Scenario workshop 28th September 2017 results, simplified examples on selected
personas are illustrated below. We can see similarities on personas “Autonomous Factories” and
“Small-Scale Digitised Factories” there in both the focus is more on vertical integration and one of
the major challenge is that currently many separated systems exists or are missing (see Figure 10).

Difficulty
of choice Abandon
+ + platforms
Fraction
postponing Number of
decision platforms Fraction developing
Fraction willing own platform
to adopt B +
- New
+
Too much variety platforms
Platform
adopters +

Companies using Companies + Companies Companies in

Excel for production implementing implementing integrated digital
planning Transitioning to ERP and MES Transitioning to connected devices Integrations to platforms
ERP and MES internal platform digital platform

Figure 10 From separate, simple or non-existing tools to internal and external platforms

Similarly personas “Hyperconnected Factories” and “Collaborative Product-Service Factories” have

focus on horizontal integration. Major challenge is in collaboration of various firms/actors (how to
get different actors to adopt the platform).

23
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 24

Figure 11 Feedback mechanisms related to platform development6

The forthcoming series of regional and national workshops, as well as the European scenario
refinement workshop provide input for the development of the cognitive map, its validation and
dynamic scenario modelling. Guidelines for participants will be distributed before the events.

6 c.f. Ruutu et al. 2017 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516308605

24
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 25

ANNEX I: Literature overview global, European and , industry and

digitisation scenario analyses and future studies

Demographic
1. Foresight (2016), “The Future of an aging population”, The Government Office for Science,
London, available at
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/535187/gs-16-10-
future-of-an-ageing-population.pdf
2. EIU (2015), “Preparing for the digitisation of the workforce”,
https://www.eiuperspectives.economist.com/sites/default/files/Preparingdigitisationworkforce.PDF
Environment
3. Commerzbank (2015), “Insights: Scenarios for the future of sustainable trade - Setting the course
for a green future”
4. Shell (2016), “Shell energy transitions and portfolio resilience”
5. H. Stegeman (2015), “The potential of the circular economy”, Rabobank special report
6. Ellen MacArthur Foundation (2015) “Towards a Circular Economy: Business Rationale For An
Accelerated Transition”
Social
7. World Economic Forum (2016) “Global Challenge Insight Report: The Future of Jobs Employment,
Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution”
8. Nenciu, Georgiana, et al (2016), "Future Scenarios of Data-Driven Smart Cities". Available at
https://stt.nl/media_category/stt-84-big-data/
9. B. Baweja et al (2016) , “Extreme automation and connectivity: The global, regional, and
investment implications of the Fourth Industrial Revolution”, UBS White Paper for the World
Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2016. Available at
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/about_ubs/follow_ubs/highlights/davos-2016.html
Technology
10. Accenture (2017), “Technology for people: The Era of the Intelligent Enterprise”. A vailable at
https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insight-disruptive-technology-trends-2017
11. OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
12. B. Otto, et al (2016, )“Industrial Data Space – Digital Sovereignty over Data”, Fraunhofer-
Gesellschaft White Paper, München
13. World Economic Forum and A.T. Kearney (2017), “Technology and Innovation for the Future of
Production: Accelerating Value Creation”, White Paper. Available at
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_White_Paper_Technology_Innovation_Future_of_Production
_2017.pdf
14. T. Birtchnell,J. Urry (2016), “A New Industrial Future?: 3D Printing and the Reconfiguring of
Production, Distribution, and Consumption”, Routledge
15. Markus Weinländer (Jan. 2017), “The OPC Unified Architecture and industrial communication
form the infrastructure of the digital factory”, in RFID Journal,
http://www.rfidjournal.com/articles/view?15553/2

25
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 26

16. W. Haerick(ed), M. Gupta (ed) (2015), “White Paper: 5G and the Factories of the Future”,
available at https://5g-ppp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/5G-PPP-White-Paper-on-Factories-of-
the-Future-Vertical-Sector.pdf
17. World Economic Forum and Accenture (2015), “Industrial Internet of Things: Unleashing the
Potential of Connected Products and Services”
18. J. Post et al (2016), “Topsector High Tech Systems and Materials: Roadmap Smart Industry”
(2016). Available at www.hightechnl.nl/actueel/nieuws/...smart-industry.../roadmap-smart-industry-
2016
19. University of California, Berkley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (2016), “Cybersecurity
Futures 2020”, https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/cybersecurity-capacity/system/files/cltcReport_04-27-
04a_pages.pdf
20. Roland Berger (2015), “Cyber-Security Managing threat scenarios in manufacturing companies”
Economic
21. E. Alm, et al (2016), “Digitizing Europe: Why Northern European Frontrunners must drive
digitization of the EU economy”, The Boston Consulting Group, report commissioned by Google
22. J. Bughin et al (2016), “Digital Europe: Pushing The Frontier, Capturing The Benefits”, McKinsey &
Company
23. M. Blanchet and T. Rinn (2016) , “The Industrie 4.0 Transition Quantified – How the forth
industrial revolution is reshuffling the economic, societal and industrial model”, Roland Berger Think
Act. Available at
https://www.rolandberger.com/publications/publication_pdf/roland_berger_industry_40_20160609
.pdf
24. C. Holmes (2015) “Designing and Implementing the Factory of the Future at Mahindra Vehicle
Manufacturers”, sponsored by CISCO
25. M. Van Alstyne G. Parker, S Choudary (2016), Pipelines,Platforms and the new rules of strategy,
in Harvard Business Review. Available at https://hbr.org/2016/04/pipelines-platforms-and-the-new-
rules-of-strategy
Political
26. Wim Boonstra et al. (Febr. 2017), “The uncertain future of European integration”, Rabo Research,
https://economics.rabobank.com/Documents/2017/februari/The_uncertain_future_of_European_in
tegration-201702-totaal.pdf
27. Atlantic Council (2015), “Risk Nexus: Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of
alternate cyber futures”, http://publications.atlanticcouncil.org/cyberrisks//risk-nexus-september-
2015-overcome-by-cyber-risks.pdf
28. M. Burrows (2016), “Global Risks 2035: the search for a new normal”, Atlantic Council
29. World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2017, 12th Edition. Available at
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GRR17_Report_web.pdf
30. UNIDO, & Policy Links (2017). Emerging Trends in Global Advanced Manufacturing: Challenges,
Opportunities and Policy Responses. Cambridge: Institute for Manufacturing, University of
Cambridge. Available at
http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/uploads/News/UNIDO_FINAL_ONLINE_29MARCH.pdf
Manufacturing

26
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 27

31. Foresight (2013), “The Future of Manufacturing: a new era of opportunity and challenge for the
UK - Summary report”, The Government Office for Science, London. Available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-manufacturing
32. L. Malmkvist, Dr. J. Sachse, D. Beurle (2016), “The Future Of Manufacturing: Building The Future
Through Agility And Innovation”, Future IQ. Available at http://www.aedg.org/wp-
content/uploads/Future-iQ-Partners-Future-of-Manufacturing.pdf?x33694
33. M. Viswanathan (05 April 2016), “The Future of Manufacturing in Europe”, Frost and Sullivan.
Available at: https://www.gilcommunity.com/blog/future-manufacturing-europe/
34. J. Hagel III, et al (2015), “The future of manufacturing: Making things in a changing world”,
Deloitte University Press
35. R. Jiang, et al (2017), “Predicting the future of Additive Manufacturing: A Delphi study on
economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030”, Technological Forecasting & Social
Change 117, pp. 84-97
36. S. Peters, et al (2016), “Digitalization of automotive industry – scenarios for future
manufacturing”, Manufacturing Rev. 2016, 3,1
37. J. Paasi & N. Wessberg (2015), “VTT For Industry: Successful business at Finnish manufacturing
companies beyond 2020 – Four scenarios”, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd. Available
at http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/visions/2015/V7.pdf
38. Siemens, Pictures of the Future, “Digital Factory: ‘Industrie 4.0’: Seven facts to know about the
future of manufacturing”. Available at https://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/home/pictures-of-
the-future/industry-and-automation/digtial-factory-trends-industrie-4-0.html
39. Dr J. Srai (2016), ‘How bright is your digital future?’, published in University of Cambridge,
Institute for Manufacturing, Review Nov. 2016. Available at:
http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/uploads/IfM_Review/Issue6/IFMR_6_Web.pdf
40. R. Bono, S Pillsbury (2016), “2016 industrial manufacturing trends; Manufacturers must weather
the risk that comes with embracing new technologies”, in PwC Strategy. Available at
http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/media/file/2016-Industrial-Manufacturing-Trends.pdf
41. Manufacturing Leadership Council (2017), “Vision 2030: The Factory Of The Future”, Frost &
Sullivan White Paper. Available at
https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/public/us/en/documents/white-papers/factory-of-the-
future-vision-2030.pdf
42. J. Manyika, et al (2016), “Digital Globalization: The New Era Of Global Flows”, by McKinsey Global
Institute
43. E. Westkämper (2014), “Towards the Re-Industrialization of Europe - A Concept for
Manufacturing for 2030”, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Available at https://manufacturing-
nordics.org/sites/default/files/europaeisk_niveau_-_towards_the_re-
industrialization_of_europe.pdf
44. M. Reimann, C. Rückriegel, et al (2017) “Road2CPS -Priorities and Recommendations for Research
and Innovation in Cyber-Physical Systems”
45. M. Taisch, G. Tavola, A. De Carolis (2017), “SCorPiuS – Future trends and Research Priorities for
CPS in Manufacturing”, White Paper. Available at https://www.eurocps.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/01/sCorPiuS_Final-roadmap_whitepaper_v1.0.pdf
46. F-Secure (2017) ,"Security Focus and Priorities of Business in 2017"
47. NESSI (2016), "Software Continuum -Recommendations for ICT Work Programme 2018+”

27
 D4.1 – First draft edition of future visions and pathways 28

48. Road4Fame - Summary of Deliverable 2.1 Guidance workshop

49. EFFRA (2016), “Factories 4.0 and Beyond - Roadmap working document. Recommendations for
the work programme 18-19-20 of the FoF PPP under Horizon 2020”. Available at
http://effra.eu/sites/default/files/factories40_beyond_v31_public.pdf

28