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    1 © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All Rights Reserved

    Uploaded by

    Jahmia Coralie

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    1 © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All Rights Reserved

    Uploaded by

    Jahmia Coralie
    39 views8 pages

    Original Title

    rd-future-trends-inf-t18

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    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    39 views8 pages

    1 © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All Rights Reserved

    Uploaded by

    Jahmia Coralie

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 8

    Over the past hour we have shared information about the market and hardware trends

    we will see in the next 5 years. However we would not be fully addressing future trends
    if we did not discuss all the news that has come out in the past year regarding dramatic
    actions to reduce CO2 generation and pollution. Many statements regarding
    electrification have been made by OEMs around the world and also a number of
    positioning statements by countries and cities regarding the banning of ICEs at some
    point in the future. All of these statements contribute to a wide variety of views of the
    future of the lubes market in 2030 – 2040 and we’d like to share our vision of the
    future.

    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 1


    Over the past hour we have shared information about the market and hardware trends
    we will see in the next 5 years. However we would not be fully addressing future trends
    if we did not discuss all the news that has come out in the past year regarding dramatic
    actions to reduce CO2 generation and pollution. Many statements regarding
    electrification have been made by OEMs around the world and also a number of
    positioning statements by countries and cities regarding the banning of ICEs at some
    point in the future. All of these statements contribute to a wide variety of views of the
    future of the lubes market in 2030 – 2040 and we’d like to share our vision of the
    future.

    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 2


    Over the past hour we have shared information about the market and hardware trends
    we will see in the next 5 years. However we would not be fully addressing future trends
    if we did not discuss all the news that has come out in the past year regarding dramatic
    actions to reduce CO2 generation and pollution. Many statements regarding
    electrification have been made by OEMs around the world and also a number of
    positioning statements by countries and cities regarding the banning of ICEs at some
    point in the future. All of these statements contribute to a wide variety of views of the
    future of the lubes market in 2030 – 2040 and we’d like to share our vision of the
    future.

    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 3


    Electrification is the long term direction for transportation propulsion systems but the
    technical and practical challenges vary by vehicle type and these will control the rate of
    adoption. Motor cycles for basic transportation are electrifying now with low power
    requirements and limited range demands facilitating this move. Passenger cars have
    seen limited electrification to date but this will change going forward. Hybridization
    presents the lowest technical and economical challenges and will likely be the dominant
    electric propulsion source in the near and medium term. HD vehicles are facing greater
    challenges with freight capacity concerns, battery charge times and charging
    infrastructure needing to be overcome to allow electrification of the long haul hardware.
    Finally shipping will be the last to experience electrification with the obvious challenges
    of power requirement and infrastructure. When we think about the pace of
    electrification we will face, we’re drawn to simple lawn mowers, that face few
    challenges for electrification but are still struggling to make the transition. As was
    discussed earlier in Trends, the large base of existing ICE based vehicles will also
    influence the impact of electrification on the lubes market.

    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 4


    A number of factors will shape the future lubes demand over the next 20-25 years. The
    global vehicle population will grow as the middle class grows, as personal mobility
    increases and as the volume of freight grow with global GDP. Increasing oil drain
    intervals will drive lubes demand down Penetration of battery electric vehicles will drive
    lubes demand down. However this broad mix of drivers, combined with the pace of
    Technology innovation and advancement, societal changes, and government mandates,
    leads to a highly uncertain future. Therefore any strategic planning and longer term
    assessment of the Lubes market must rely on evaluation against potential scenarios
    rather than betting on a single future state. Infineum is considering 3 scenarios in our
    strategic planning. 4 Degrees of Global Warming by end of century, which represented
    current policies and practices carried forward. 2 Degrees of Global Warming by end of
    century, which represents a plausible outcome achievable with current technologies.
    Below 2 Degrees Scenario (1.7 degrees), which represents a stretch case with very
    aggressive social and technological advancements

    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 5


    As you would expect, the degree of uncertainty increases as we move further out in
    time and IAH modelling the outcomes of the potential scenarios shows significant
    difference in Road Transportation fuel demand by 2040. Signposts are needed to
    evaluate current and near term events to give indications of which scenario may be
    playing out. While the Fuel demand projections are shown in the plot, our modelling
    showed that in each scenario, peak fuel demand preceded peak lubricant demand by at
    least 5 year, due primarily to the significant penetration of hybrid technology. Certainly a
    slowing of fuel demand growth can serve as a key signpost as we go forward. In all
    scenarios, rapid and potentially disruptive changes in a number of areas impacting our
    business will bring significant technical and marketplace challenges to the lubricant
    market . However these challenges will also provide significant opportunities for
    innovation and value creation for those who are ready to meet the challenges.

    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 6


    Chis Locke, Infineum Executive Vice President of Marketing and Technology provides his
    thoughts.
    Chis Locke: “Infineum has invested significant time and effort in assessing the long term
    future of the lubricant and fuels businesses. It would be very easy when reading the
    external press to believe that the entire value chain associated with the internal
    combustion engine is about to collapse, but we do not believe this to be true. The large
    currently installed capacity, the expansion of global demand for personal transportation,
    the emergence and expansion of technologies such as hybridisation which will extend
    the lifetime of the ICE, and the infrastructure challenges associated with fully electric
    powertrains will all drive this towards a multi decade evolutionary change as opposed to
    a sudden discontinuity. In this world, lubricants will continue to play a critical role, both
    in maximising the efficiency and durability of current hardware but also enabling ever
    more environmentally sustainable powertrain developments. We are entering a time of
    dynamic and unprecedented change for our industry, with many challenges to be faced
    and overcome – both technical and perception. However, all industries must evolve to
    both survive and thrive, and personally I am excited by the possibilities that the future
    brings ; as the world diversifies its powertrain mix to make personal transportation ever
    more sustainable, I am convinced many opportunities will exist for those who identify
    and meet the emerging needs.”

    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 7


    © 2018 Infineum International Limited. All rights reserved 8

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