Reducing CO2 Emissions+Aug+05
Reducing CO2 Emissions+Aug+05
Reducing CO2 Emissions+Aug+05
August 2005
Preface
Despite advances in many areas and particularly in technologies to deal with tradi-
tional air pollutants, there has been little overall improvement when it comes to the
environmental impacts of the transport sector. The harm to human health and the en-
vironmental damage caused by road transport remain at unacceptably high levels. In
response to this situation, the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU)
– an independent institution that has advised the German government on environ-
mental policy issues since 1972 and comprises seven university professors from a
range of different disciplines – issued an in-depth Special Report on the Environment
and Motorised Road Transport in June 2005 (SRU, 2005). Along with a comprehen-
sive status report on the environmental effects of road transport, the Special Report
contains a range of recommendations for integrated transport and environmental
policy to allow more environmentally compatible transport management and design
of motorised road transport without forgoing high levels of mobility. The recommen-
dations include measures to allow:
– Development of vehicle technology for cleaner, quieter and more energy-efficient
vehicles
– A holistic, integrative planning approach to environmental and transport policy
goals and objectives, and their effective implementation
– Economic and regulatory instruments for road transport management
– Correction of traffic-inducing incentives in other policy areas.
One of the main focuses of the vehicle technology recommendations involves re-
ducing CO2 emissions from road transport and using environmental policy to do so.
To ensure that these recommendations reach a broad specialist audience at European
level, the Council is issuing this English language extract from its Special Report.
The full German-language report (comprising almost 600 pages) is available online
and can be downloaded from the Council's website (www.umweltrat.de).
1
Contents Page
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3 Reduction Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1 Conventional Engine Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.2 Alternative fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.2.1 Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.2.3 Hydrogen Technology and Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.3 Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4 Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.1 The Car Industry and Voluntary Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.2 Emissions Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.3 CO2-Based Vehicle Taxation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
5 Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3
List of Tables Page
Table 1 Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Various Uses of One Tonne
of Biomass from Short Rotation Plantations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Table 2 Costs of GHG Abatement Using Biofuel Variants . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Table 3 Average Specific CO2 Emissions for Newly Registered
Passenger Cars between 1995 and 2002
(CO2 emissions in g/km) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
4
Reducing CO2 Emissions from Cars the Federal Environmental Agency (UBA), achieving an
80 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions average overall
Executive Summary
consumption of 4.7 l/100 km for petrol and 3.8 l/100 km
Although alternative fuels like biomass and hydrogen are for diesel are assumed. Looking to the year 2050, con-
expected to offer significant reduction potential, at least sumption levels of 1.6 l/100 km in diesel-fuelled cars and
in the longer term, the Council sees an urgent need to 2 l/100 km in petrol-fuelled cars are deemed feasible
better exploit the technological potential to reduce spe- (FISCHEDICK et al., 2002, p. 358 ff). This represents
cific CO2 emissions from vehicles with conventional specific emissions of around 40 g CO2/km for diesel cars
engines. Using available technology, it is possible to re- and about 50 g CO2/km for petrol-driven cars.
duce average fuel consumption by more than 40 per cent
in newly registered petrol-engined passenger cars and by The agreement by the European Automobile Manufac-
up to 40 per cent in those with diesel engines. This means turers Association (ACEA) to achieve average CO2 emis-
a drop in average CO2 emissions from newly registered sions of 140 g/km for newly registered passenger cars by
passenger cars to around 100 g/km. The main features 2008 is therefore only an interim target. Further proposals
include enhancement of specific engine technologies, aim at reducing specific CO2 emissions in newly regis-
ensuring that engines run in the optimum performance tered passenger cars to 120 g CO2/km by 2012 (EU Com-
range through downsizing and improved gearbox spac- mission, 2004a). In October 2004, the British government
ing, optimum energy management, hybridisation, and re- announced an official target under which by 2012, 10 per
duced vehicle weight and rolling resistance. Measures cent of new passenger cars purchased in Great Britain
that effect a change in consumer behaviour and driving would emit less than 100 g CO2/km (Department for
habits also play a key role. This reduction potential Transport, 2004). If new car sales remain constant, a re-
should be exploited by introducing an emissions trading striction of specific CO2 emissions to 120 g CO2/km from
scheme to incentivise carmakers to bring average CO2 2010 and to 100 g CO2/km from 2015 would mean a drop
emissions in new vehicles down to 100 g CO2/km by in CO2 emissions from passenger cars somewhere in the
2012 as an interim target. Additional, longer-term targets region of 10 million tonnes by 2020 (KOLKE et al.,
could be set to achieve even greater reductions. To foster 2003). This represents around 6 per cent of the
demand-side support for this system, vehicle taxation 165.9 million tonnes of CO2 emitted by road transport in
should be redesigned to focus on CO2 emissions, be pro- 2002 (see SRU, 2005, Figure 2.7).
gressively structured and payable for several years in ad- 2. In the pages that follow, Section 2 looks at past de-
vance when buying a new vehicle. In order to prevent im- velopments in transport-related CO2 emissions, while
proved fuel economy from creating incentives for more Section 3 illustrates the available reduction potential from
travel, further steps to increase fuel prices are needed in conventional engine technologies and from the use of al-
the framework of the ecological tax reform. ternative fuels. Section 4 then outlines the environmental
policy measures needed to exploit this reduction poten-
1 Introduction tial. It looks at switching from self-regulation and volun-
1. CO2 emissions in the transport sector poses a key tary compliance on the part of the European car industry
problem along with particle and NOx emissions. If long- to an emissions trading system that targets fuel consump-
term climate protection targets are to be met, the transport tion in vehicles and at a vehicle taxation system that
sector must play its part by reducing its absolute CO2 places greater focus on CO2 emissions than it has so far.
emissions. Climate change scenarios project that to meet Section 5 presents a summary of the key recommen-
a CO2 reduction target in the region of 80 per cent overall dations.
by the middle of this century, CO2 emissions from trans-
port would have to fall by between 34 and 55 per cent by 2 Current Status and Past
2050 compared with 2002 (Enquete Commission, 2002). Developments
When it comes to the application of technical measures at
3. Average fuel consumption of passenger cars in Ger-
source, part of the emissions reduction target could be
many dropped from 8.3 l/100 km to 7.8 l/100 km, or 6 per
achieved through greater use of alternative fuels and
cent, during the period 1991 to 2002 (UBA, 2004). As
another part by reducing specific CO2 emissions in con-
measured when using the New European Driving Cycle
ventional vehicles.
(NEDC), market-weighted consumption in newly regis-
Scenario calculations commissioned by the German tered passenger cars in Germany was 6.9 l/100 km in
Federal Parliament Enquete Commission on Sustainable 2003 (VDA, 2004a). Established in 1996, the NEDC is
Energy Supply in Times of Globalisation and Liberalisa- the EU standard test cycle (cold start and warm-up phase,
tion (Nachhaltige Energieversorgung unter den Bedin- four urban driving cycles and an extra-urban driving cycle)
gungen der Globalisierung und Liberalisierung) (2002) to assess exhaust and consumption levels on a roller test
with regard to achieving an 80 per cent climate protection bed. It must be borne in mind, however, that passenger
target show an average consumption among all registered car fuel consumption measured under more realistic con-
vehicles of between 2.5 and 4.1 l/100 km for 2050 ditions is between 0.5 and 1 l/100 km above average con-
depending on specific scenario values (IER, WI and sumption levels measured using the NEDC (RIEKE,
Prognos, 2002). According to a study commissioned by 2002).
5
This drop in consumption resulted in a fall in specific tainly have been greater had engine power remained the
CO2 emissions from newly registered passenger cars. In same (see Figure 1).
the case of newly registered passenger cars made by Ger-
man manufacturers, the reductions meant a drop from Specific CO2 emissions from commercial vehicles have
187 g CO2/km in 1998 to an average 173 g CO2/km in also decreased (to 629 g/km) following a 9 per cent drop
2003 (Figure 1: VDA, 2004b). This is due both to im- in emissions among registered vehicles between 1960 and
proved engine technology and to a higher share of diesel- 2003 (Figure 2). According to the German Automobile
fuelled passenger cars among newly registered vehicles – Industry Association (VDA), fuel consumption in com-
the number of diesel-engined cars bought in Germany mercial vehicles fell by 30 per cent during the period
rose four-fold, from 9.8 per cent in 1990 to over 40 per 1970 to 2003 and now lies at around 33 l/100 km for a
cent in 2003 (press release issued by the Federal Bureau 40 tonne truck (VDA, 2003). A strong increase in traffic
of Motor Vehicles and Drivers [Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt] during the same period – both in passenger and commer-
dated 29.03.2004). A clear increase in the number of die- cial vehicles – resulted in absolute CO2 emissions from
sel-fuelled vehicles purchased has also been observed at passenger cars rising by a factor of 6.4 between 1960 and
European level: from 23.1 per cent in 1994 to 40.9 per 2002, while absolute CO2 emissions from commercial ve-
cent in 2002 (ACEA, 2005). hicles rose by a factor of 5.2 (see SRU, 2005, Figure 2.8).
Fuel consumption by commercial vehicles – which in
Given that passenger cars are only replaced on a gradual 2002 accounted for about a third of total fuel used for
basis (the average age of a passenger car in Germany is road transport – increased by 37.6 per cent between 1991
around 6.6 years), the drop in specific CO2 emissions and 2002 (MWV, 2003).
from all registered passenger cars failed to match that
from newly registered vehicles overall (Figure 1) (EEA, There thus remains a need to fully exploit existing tech-
2003). Nevertheless, there has been a 29 per cent drop in nological potential to reduce CO2 emissions from vehi-
specific CO2 emissions from passenger cars registered in cles if the climate protection targets outlined above
Germany since 1960 (Figure 2). This drop would cer- (Para. 1) are to be achieved.
Figure 1
Trends in CO2 Emissions (g/km), Consumption (l/100 km), Engine Capacity (cm3) and Engine Power (kW)
in Newly Registered Passenger Cars in Germany
1,3
Power 85 kW (2002)
Capacity
1,2
Relative change compared with 1990
Consumption
Spec. CO2 1842 cm3
1,1
emissions (2002)
172,6 g CO2/km
0,9
(2003)
0,8
6,896 l/100 km
(2003)
0,7
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: SRU/EA SG 2005/Figure 7.5. Data Source: ACEA, 2003 and VDA, 2004a,b
6
Figure 2
Trends in Specific CO2 Emissions in Passenger and Commercial Vehicles Registered in Germany
800
700
600
400
300
200
100
0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SRU/EA SG 2005/Figure 7.6. Data Source: UBA, written correspondence dated 01.09.2004,
Transport Emission Estimation Model (TREMOD), Version 3.1
7
Figure 3
Energy Consumption in a Passenger Car in the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
6
0,42
5 0,36
Fuel consumption [l/100 km]
Further development of diesel engines thus places its Thus, in city traffic in particular, fuel savings of up to
main focus on better injection processes to allow more 25 per cent could be achieved by an automatic start-stop
homogeneous mixtures and ultimately lower emissions mechanism that uses a flywheel system to switch the en-
(THIELE and MERKER, 2004). Lesser potential for opti- gine on and off (NEUMANN and SCHINDLER, 2000).
mising consumption lies in improved exhaust gas recircu- Automatic engine cutoff can result in an overall reduction
lation and further friction reduction (about 2 per cent in fuel consumption of up to 4 per cent (ELLINGER et al.,
each) (MEHLIN et al., 2000). In the longer term, the 2000). Savings of 3.9 per cent have been achieved in the
combustion processes in petrol and diesel engines are ex- VW 3 litre Lupo (Figure 7: MEHLIN et al., 2002).
pected to converge (STEIGER, 2003).
In further hybridisation (strong or parallel hybrid), an
Downsizing and enhanced transmission technology electric motor with sufficient capacity to power the vehi-
cle independently is installed alongside a conventional
7. Both types of engine attain the best degree of effi- combustion engine. This allows three different operating
ciency within a certain performance range. Downsizing methods: combustion engine, electric motor and a combi-
and improved transmission aim to ensure that this range nation of both. The electric motor is usually designed for
is exceeded as rarely as possible. In downsizing, engine driving around town and the combustion engine for mo-
capacity reduction forces the engine to work harder. torways and other longer distance travel. Use of the com-
Downsizing is supplemented by forced induction (tur- bustion engine in unfavourable partial throttle can thus be
bocharging or electronically supported induction) to avoided: while performance demands are lower, the com-
maintain the engine power (ELLINGER et al., 2002). Au- bustion engine still operates at a favourable level of effi-
tomatic gear boxes with wider gear spacing (6 or 7 gears) ciency with excess energy being used to recharge the bat-
and hydraulically or electronically supported gear change tery. This also allows targeted downsizing of the
can reduce consumption by around 10 per cent (HOF- combustion engine in that its weaknesses at partial throt-
MANN et al., 2002). Automatic gear boxes could be tle can be compensated for by the electric motor. The par-
further developed to use continuously variable transmis- allel hybrid enables regenerative braking, meaning that
sion (CVT) for additional savings of up to 8 per cent braking energy is recovered and stored in the batteries.
(ELLINGER et al., 2002). Along with reduced emissions (with the exception of
NOx) (WALLENTOWITZ and NEUNZIG, 2001), the ad-
Energy management and hybridisation vantages of the parallel hybrid over petrol and diesel en-
gines make for potential reductions in fuel consumption
8. Vehicles in city traffic do not actually use their engine of between 25 and 34 per cent (ISENSEE, 2002; CON-
power for about 45 per cent of the time (STEIGER, 2003). CAWE et al., 2003a).
8
The disadvantages of hybrid vehicles are their dual en- available technology are so extreme that they are only
ergy storage and dual engines. These affect the vehicle's considered suitable for use in a niche market (WB
weight and cost. Further developments (e.g. a starter gen- BMVBW, 2002; BIRNBAUM et al., 2002).
erator system and associated omission of a starter motor
and dynamo) will, however, enhance opportunities for se- The electric motor would have great potential if a mani-
rial production of hybrid vehicles (WB BMVBW, 2002). fold increase in battery power could be achieved. The
basic advantages compared with combustion engines (in-
Toyota already offers a second generation hybrid in the
cluding their auxiliary equipment) lie in the compara-
form of its widely marketed Prius model which puts out
tively simple technology and the avoidance of large quan-
only 104 g CO2/km and carries less than 100 kg extra
tities of exhaust heat given off and lost in mobile
weight. Some European manufacturers have presented
combustion engines (as is the case with hydrogen fuel
newly developed hybrid vehicles and have announced
cells). Even with the batteries available today, battery
plans to put them into production (VDA, 2004c). power is just as efficient as a combustion engine if the
primary energy is generated in high-efficiency combined-
Electric vehicles cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power stations and even more
so if generated in a combined heat and power (CHP)
9. In contrast to parallel hybrids, whose attractiveness plant. With the current energy mix, however, electric mo-
comes in the form of low fuel consumption and emissions tors compare unfavourably in terms of energy and CO2.
coupled with high torque, a purely electric motor has sig-
nificant disadvantages. While allowing emission-free
Vehicle design (weight, rolling and air resistance)
driving (although any overall assessment must take
account of electricity generation), the low energy density 10. In addition to drive train enhancement and opti-
of batteries (about 1/100th that of liquid fuel) make large mised energy management, better fuel efficiency could be
batteries necessary in order to achieve an acceptable achieved by reducing vehicle weight along with air and
range. This makes vehicles heavier, which in turn detracts rolling resistance. Figure 4 shows the impact of these ve-
from energy efficiency. The electric vehicles now hicle parameters on fuel consumption in a hybrid vehicle.
available manage distances of around 100 km. On the A reduction in vehicle weight offers the greatest potential
whole, the disadvantages of electric vehicles built with for reduced fuel consumption.
Figure 4
Hybrid Vehicle: Impact of Vehicle Weight and Rolling and Air Resistance on Fuel Consumption
20
15
10
Change in fuel consumption [%]
0 Drag coefficient
–5
Hybrid vehicle with
Rolling friction NiMH battery
– 10 coefficient
– 15
Vehicle weight
– 20 (with batteries)
– 25
– 30 – 20 – 10 0 10 20
9
A steady increase in vehicle weight has been observed ing on driving speed (SCHEDEL, 2001). The Federal
over time: increased demand for comfort, safety, perform- Environmental Agency (UBA) estimates that the use of
ance and versatility have all resulted in heavier vehicles. low-rolling-resistance tyres offers a potential CO2 reduc-
To compensate for the additional weight, stronger engines tion of between 2 and 5 per cent in passenger cars and
had to be installed. In many cases, this also meant install- between 3 and 9 per cent in commercial vehicles
ing bigger fuel tanks, which further increased the vehi- (KOLKE et al., 2003). Additionally, a 10 to 20 per cent
cle's weight. Thus, from 1995 the average weight of a ve- reduction in drag is thought possible with the use of more
hicle rose by around 100 kg and reached 1,214 kg in 2002 aerodynamic vehicle bodies without any significant re-
(ACEA and offices of the EU Commission, 2001; 2003). striction as regards passenger comfort (Enquete Commis-
This vicious circle regarding vehicle weight could be bro- sion, 2002, p. 216 f). The resulting achievable fuel saving
ken with the use of new materials and new assembly potential in light commercial vehicles lies at around 4 per
methods (Figure 5). VW expects potential reductions in cent (EU Commission, 2004b).
vehicle weight of between 30 and 35 per cent overall
(NEUMANN and SCHINDLER, 2000). A study con-
Consumer behaviour (engine power and auxiliary
ducted by Arthur D. Little on the outcomes of introducing
a CO2 reduction target of 120 g/km by 2012 reported po- equipment) and driving habits
tential weight reductions of 15 per cent for small cars, 12. Engine power, electrical auxiliary equipment like air
18 per cent for middle-class cars and 30 per cent for lux- conditioning, dashboard electronics and entertainment
ury vehicles (Arthur D. Little, 2003, p. 26). systems, and a range of components that supply electri-
The reduction in fuel consumption resulting from reduced city and hydraulics to a vehicle's various systems – all of
vehicle weight lies in the region of 0.3 to 0.8 l/100 km per which are largely determined by consumer behaviour –
100 kg weight reduction (MEHLIN et al., 2002; ISEN- have considerable influence on fuel consumption and
SEE, 2002). A 10 per cent weight reduction in the VW CO2 emissions. Within a single decade, the number of
Lupo achieved fuel savings of 8 per cent. Other studies new vehicles equipped with air conditioning rose from
contain considerably more conservative figures, with fuel 15 per cent in 1992 to 72 per cent in 2002 (Arthur D.
savings of 3.5 per cent per 10 per cent weight reduction Little, 2003). The impact of this auxiliary equipment on
(Arthur D. Little, 2003, p. 116). fuel consumption in a middle-class vehicle in the New
European Driving Cycle can result in up to 17 per cent
11. A 30 per cent reduction in tyre rolling resistance can more fuel being used (summer operation with air condi-
achieve fuel savings of between 2 and 6 per cent depend- tioning; WALLENTOWITZ and NEUNZIG, 2001, p. 34).
Figure 5
Chassis approx. 5%
Package/fuel approx. 5%
tank volume
+ Cost Target
weight
– Cost
10
The additional CO2 emissions caused by air conditioning case of petrol engines, it is thought that measures involv-
alone lie between 3 and 8 per cent (EU Commission, ing the drive train in a middle-class vehicle (with CO2
2004b). emissions of 164 g/km) could achieve fuel savings of
around 38 per cent (Figure 6; and similarly ELLINGER
The EU Commission estimates the impact of air condi-
et al., 2002; LANG et al., 2004; Enquete Commission,
tioning on greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles at be-
2002, p. 216 ff; KOLKE, 1999, p. 47). Further measures
tween 16 and 28 g CO2eq/km. Of these, about one-third
such as weight reduction, reduced rolling and air resist-
result from the higher CO2 emissions caused by greater
ance, and promotion of fuel-efficient driving habits can
fuel consumption and two-thirds from the release of the
result in a 40 per cent or greater decrease in overall con-
hydrofluorocarbon HFC 134a (ECCP, 2003). For this rea-
sumption (see also JOSEFOWITZ und KÖHLE, 2002).
son, the proposal for a regulation on specific fluorinated
Future savings potential expected from diesel motors is
greenhouse gases (EU Commission, 2003) contains a
significantly lower compared with petrol engines because
plan to phase out HFC 134a in mobile air conditioning
diesel engines are less wasteful than petrol engines when
systems. It requires that from 2014, new vehicles no
run (as is often the case) at partial throttle (FISCHER,
longer be equipped with air conditioning units that con-
1998). Also, significant increases in diesel motor effi-
tain HFC 134a (Article 10). Also, certain leakage rates
ciency have already been achieved with the use of elec-
may not be exceeded as of 2005 (Article 9).
tronically regulated direct fuel injection with extremely
13. In Germany, average engine power in newly regis- high charging pressures. Nevertheless, hybridisation and
tered vehicles rose from 69 kW in 1995 to 85 kW in 2002 improved transmission could result in savings of around
(see Figure 1). If this trend towards higher performance 32 per cent (Figure 6; see also JOSEFOWITZ and
vehicles continues, reducing CO2 emissions will prove KÖHLE, 2002). Additional savings could also be
difficult. A 30 per cent reduction in engine power could, achieved with a reduction in vehicle weight, reduced rolling
by way of contrast, reduce CO2 emissions by between 13 and air resistance, and by promoting fuel-efficient driving
and 19 per cent in petrol engines and between 5 and habits. For the coming decades, therefore, optimised
15 per cent in diesel engines. A 50 per cent reduction in combustion engines will remain the dominant engine type
engine power could reduce CO2 emissions by between 25 and are unlikely to be replaced to any great extent by
and 32 per cent (KOLKE et al., 2003). electric vehicles powered either by battery or fuel cells.
Hybrid vehicles could, however, gain a larger share of the
14. A Progress Report issued by the Federal Environ-
market (CHRISTIDIS et al., 2003; MERKER, 2002).
mental Agency in 2003 pointed to the potential that
changed consumer behaviour and altered driving habits offer 16. Carmakers have already demonstrated the opportu-
in reducing CO2 emissions from road transport (KOLKE nities available for improved fuel efficiency, both in pro-
et al., 2003). The report showed that the introduction of a duction and trial models. Figure 7 uses the 3 litre VW
speed limit (see also SRU, 2005, Section 9.2) could Lupo to illustrate the available technology used to cut
achieve an 8 per cent drop in CO2 emissions in non-urban fuel consumption by more than 1 litre compared with a
areas, while reductions of 9 per cent (at 120 km/h) and basic model. The fuel savings achieved came from an im-
19 per cent (100 km/h) were possible on motorways. By proved engine which contributed around 60 per cent,
providing consumer information (e.g. appropriate and at- weight reductions which provided about 20 per cent and a
tractive labelling of passenger cars, which is anyway re- further 20 per cent came from measures to reduce air and
quired by the EU directive on energy labelling), consum- rolling resistance (PEHNT, 2001, p. 89 ff, with further
ers should receive assistance to enable them to choose a references).
low-consumption vehicle. Fuel-efficient driving habits
can also be promoted through a range of measures invol- With the SmILE vehicle, a modified Renault Twingo,
ving, for instance, driver training and the provision of Greenpeace demonstrated that technical improvements
information on using light oil. Companies with vehicle could halve fuel consumption immediately without hav-
fleets could be given additional incentives for example in ing to change the front cross-section of the vehicle which
the form of company awards. Private individuals could is largely responsible for passenger comfort (Greenpeace,
receive financial incentives: perhaps a voucher awarded 2004). VW has also shown what can be done with a
upon purchase of a new vehicle, giving them free training 1 litre car, although their model deviates greatly from
in fuel-efficient driving techniques. Vehicles would, of conventional vehicle designs. Toyota's middle-class
course, need to be equipped with a fuel consumption Prius, a hybrid vehicle, puts out only 104 g CO2/km
gauge as standard equipment. The Federal Environmental (Para. 8) and performs similarly to other vehicles in its
Agency estimates that such measures to promote fuel-ef- class.
ficient driving habits could provide additional CO2 reduc-
tion potential of between 6 and 17 per cent. 17. With regard to commercial vehicles, the potential
for reduced fuel consumption is thought to be lower than
that for passenger vehicles because, for the most part,
Potential for reduced consumption in passenger and
their engines have already been largely optimised for fuel
commercial vehicles: Summary
consumption relative to vehicle-specific load capacity.
15. Combustion engines still have considerable poten- Direct fuel injection diesel motors with a charger and
tial for fuel-saving and associated CO2 reduction. In the sometimes with exhaust gas recirculation are the norm.
11
Figure 6
Drive Train Savings Potential in Petrol and Diesel Engines Compared with a Passenger Car
with 164 g CO2/km Emissions
180
160
140 – 44,5%
– 37,80%
120
g CO2 per km
– 31,6%
100
80
60
40
20 Petrol Diesel
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However, fuel consumption in commercial vehicles is ex- in the use of alternative fuels like natural gas is to reduce
pected to drop by as much as 5 per cent with the introduc- localised emissions in, for example, built-up areas.
tion of SCR technology (see also SRU, 2005, Sec-
tion 7.2.2.2). Forecasts indicate reductions in average fuel In its statement on Efficiency and Energy Research as
consumption in commercial vehicles of between 5 and Components of Consistent Energy Policy (RNE, 2004a),
7 or even 10 per cent for the period 1997 to 2015 the German Council for Sustainable Development called
(BIRNBAUM et al., 2002, p. 83 f). for the transport sector to make its own contribution to
energy and CO2 savings. Along with a range of effi-
ciency-enhancing measures, the Council also recom-
3.2 Alternative fuels mends stepping up efforts in the use of natural gas and
synthetic and renewable fuels.
18. Alternative fuels include all types of fuels with the
exception of the petroleum products petrol and diesel. In principle, both environmental and economic aspects
Natural gas, liquid gas, hydrogen and plant oil fuels fall should be taken into account in decisionmaking on the
into this category along with synthetically produced fuels use of alternative fuels. Consideration should be given to
made from biomass, natural gas and coal. The attractive- the competing uses for the few alternative fuels available
ness of these fuels lies in the fact that their use can lead to and the substances they are derived from, be it stationary
a decline in CO2 emissions and certain other air pollutants provision of electricity or heat or other uses of the raw
compared with petroleum products. materials themselves. Limited availability of fossil fuels
means that the transport sector will be forced to use bio-
In its National Strategy for Sustainable Development, the fuels and hydrogen from renewable sources and other re-
German government lists a reduction in the use of fossil newable energy carriers in the longer term.
fuels as part of its fuel strategy. The ultimate aim being to
reduce dependence on oil, improve security of supply and Generally speaking, in relation to fuel needs, the quanti-
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It also plans to use the ties of biofuels that can be produced domestically are lim-
innovative potential offered by alternative fuels and drive ited. For this reason, the potential biofuel contribution in
technologies in the hope of stimulating economic growth reducing dependency on imported petroleum products is
and employment (Bundesregierung, 2004). A further goal not addressed in this report. Nor are the competing uses
12
Figure 7
Effectiveness of Drive-Related Measures for Reduced Fuel Consumption in the 3 Litre VW Lupo
5,00
Starting point: 1000 rpm
engine software
4,00
EGR cooler
3,50
Stop/start
3,00
2,50
for biomass, natural gas, etc. in the mobile and stationary Biodiesel (RME) is the primary biofuel used in Ger-
sectors covered to any great extent. This would require a many and served 0.9 per cent of end energy consump-
study of the energy and raw materials markets overall, tion in road transport in 2003 (BMU, 2004a). Up to
which is not the aim of this special report and involves 5 per cent biodiesel can be blended with mineral diesel
great uncertainty as regards the price of raw materials in in all diesel vehicles. Some manufacturers have al-
the future, their availability, markets and technologies. ready approved their vehicles for unrestricted biodie-
sel use. Cold-pressed plant oils can also be used in
3.2.1 Biofuels modified vehicles at a ratio of up to 100 per cent (pure
plant oil). Ethanol can be used as an additive in petrol.
19. Biofuels are fuels produced from biomass and can Conventional engines can cope with a mixture of
be separated into two rough categories: around 15 per cent ethanol or synthetic methanol,
while modified vehicles can cope with up to 100 per
– Conventional biofuels that are already used in great cent.
quantities today. These include:
– Synthetic biofuels produced using biomass gasifica-
– Plant oil methyl ester (biodiesel), rape seed methyl tion and a subsequent synthesis process. The base ma-
ester (RME) being the most common in Germany terial in the production of biofuels is not limited to oil,
– Plant oils sugar and starch plant components. Whole plants and
plant waste can also be used. The end product is either
– Bioethanol made from sugar and starch plants, pri- hydrogen or synthetic diesel generated using the
marily sugarbeet and cereals in Europe. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis process (see HAMELINCK
13
et al., 2003). The latter technology is described as bio- tain priority on using biomass in stationary provision of
mass-to-liquid (BTL); Volkswagen also calls its prod- electricity and heat (see also BMU, 2004b). But this
uct Sun Fuel (STEIGER, 2002). The technology is would not mean that the innovative technology track in
still in its trial phase and a pilot project, 'synthetic the transport sector – BTL and GTL processes, for exam-
fuels from renewable resources', was started in 2003. ple – should be abandoned. Given its quantity potential
It offers greater quantity potential than conventional and competing uses, however, domestic biomass could
biofuels due to the broader base of raw materials used. only play a significant role in the transport sector if that
However, systemic energy losses occur in BTL pro- sector (like others) were to significantly reduce its overall
duction: a large percentage of the energy contained in energy consumption.
raw biomass is lost as exhaust heat during the produc-
Potential use of domestic biomass in the transport sector
tion process. Only around 40 to 50 per cent of the
should thus be focused on available arable land as dic-
fuel's energy is used (see data from PRINS et al.,
tated by nature conservation provisions. Consideration
2004; HAMELINCK et al., 2003). Energy-efficient
must also be given to additional factors such as demo-
use of biomass in the case of BTL therefore comes
graphic change and harvest yields (BMU, 2004b). Poten-
down to the recovery of process heat in production.
tial imports must be linked to clearly defined provisions
20. Coupled with its selection of the 'strong' sustain- such as those recently called for by the German Council
ability model, the German Advisory Council on the Envi- for Sustainable Development in respect of wood imports
ronment formulated a number of rules for the management (RNE, 2004b). One option would be to establish a certifi-
of natural resources (SRU, 2002a, Para. 29). One of these cation system for biomass and biomass products.
rules is that non-renewable energy carriers and raw mate-
rials should only be used when a physically and func- Potential in Germany
tionally equivalent substitute renewable can be produced
simultaneously. This rule requires further expansion of 21. Biomass as an energy vector comes in the form of
renewable energy sources, including biomass, on differ- waste substances (straw, waste wood, biowaste, etc.) and
ing spatial and temporal scales (for a detailed report on can also be produced by cultivating energy crops. The po-
the situation in Germany, see BMU, 2004b). Greater use tential in using biomass to generate energy was the sub-
of biomass is thus to be welcomed. The decisive factor, ject of a recent in-depth study on expanding the use of re-
however, will be an accurate environmental impact as- newable energy sources in line with environmental needs
sessment on the advantages and disadvantages of dif- (BMU, 2004b). The study looks at two different scenar-
ferent scenarios and use variants given the dynamics of ios:
technological development, changing agricultural policy – The Basic Scenario in which the minimum require-
and foreseeable structural changes in farming. ments of nature conservation law are meant to be
Two key restrictions arise when it comes to biomass use: taken into account
firstly, the goals and objectives of nature conservation, – The Nature Conservation Plus Scenario in which na-
which must at minimum fulfil those of the Federal Nature ture conservation requirements receive greater consid-
Conservation Act (BNatSchG) and the EU Habitats Di- eration.
rective but may also extend beyond their respective provi-
sions (see SRU, 2002b), and secondly, the arable land According to its description, the Basic Scenario should
needed both domestically and overseas to actually pro- consider minimum nature conservation requirements.
duce biomass. A restriction on biofuel imports on the This appears questionable, however. While consideration
grounds of insufficient consideration of nature conserva- is given to uses of biomass as considered desirable from a
tion requirements in the country of origin may conflict nature conservation standpoint (use of wood originating
with the WTO Free Trade Agreement. from landscape maintenance, for example), the minimum
requirements laid down as regards establishing a network
The following criteria must thus be applied when assess- of interlinked biotopes, NATURA 2000 and responsible
ing available options: management practices, which would all lead to a reduc-
tion in biomass yields even in the Basic Scenario, go un-
– Energy efficiency heeded.
– Land use and compatibility with nature conservation According to the current status on site registrations, the
goals European NATURA 2000 environmental network will
– Various environmental impact parameters (eutrophica- take up at least 8.6 per cent of available land for habitat
tion, acidification, erosion, etc.) conservation (BfN, 2005). This includes neither the areas
needed to ensure coherence of the necessary corridors be-
– Economic viability tween the habitats nor the EU bird protection areas; the
– Structural impact and effect on the jobs market. latter only overlap with Habitat Directive areas in a
number of cases and currently take up some 7 per cent of
Against the backdrop of ambitious long-term energy and available land. Nor can it be assumed that NATURA 2000
climate policy targets (SRU, 2004, Section 2) and expan- areas are identical to those of the national network of
sion of fluctuating energy sources like wind energy, it linked biotopes. Thus, the 10 per cent of available land
would make sense if the energy sector were to set a cer- for nature conservation needs allowed for in the Nature
14
Conservation Plus Scenario is in fact not even adequate in The potential indicated in both scenarios is technical po-
the Basic Scenario. A further weakness of the scenario tential. The price of making it available was not included
model lies in the fact that the Nature Conservation Plus in the study. Figure 8 shows the potential from waste sub-
Scenario includes minimum requirements for erosion- stances, although around one quarter falls away as tra-
prone areas while, despite the fact that erosion prevention ditional waste for disposal – the biogenic component of
is a component of good agricultural management prac- household and bulk waste, sewage sludge and waste
tice, the Basic Scenario does not (Section 5 (4) of the wood. The potential from biomass crops is shown in two
Federal Nature Conservation Act (BNatSchG) and different variants: full use of biomass cropland to produce
Section 17 (2) of the Federal Soil Protection Act (BBod- solid biomass (1) and production of biofuels (2). The po-
SchG)). tential overall energy yield is thus the sum of the potential
from waste substances and that from one or other of the
It is therefore questionable as to whether the quantities of two biomass crop variants. An annual yield of 80 GJ/ha
biomass crops contained in the Basic Scenario can be was assumed when calculating the potential from the fuel
achieved while complying with currently applicable na- variants (for comparison purposes: between 45 and
ture conservation provisions. Caution must therefore be 50 GJ/ha for RME, 87 GJ/ha for bioethanol derived from
taken to avoid overestimating the actual potential calcu- a combination of 50 per cent sugarbeet and 50 per cent
lated under the Basic Scenario. wheat, and 85 to 90 GJ/ha for BTL fuels).
The study shows that:
Compared with the Basic Scenario, the Nature Conserva-
tion Plus Scenario takes particular account of restrictions – Intensive production of biomass crops stands in direct
on land provision and use, and of those arising from pro- conflict with nature conservation efforts
visions on linked biotopes, conservation and expansion of – The energy yield from arable land on which fuel crops
grasslands, exclusive use of erosion-prone land for multi- are grown is around half as much as from the produc-
year crops, and water protection (e.g. riverside strips). As tion of solid biomass
can be seen from the critique on the Basic Scenario, some
measures that are taken into account in the Nature Con- – The potential from biomass crops will rise signifi-
servation Plus Scenario are anyway part of prevailing na- cantly over time, while that from waste substances
ture conservation provisions. In some respects, therefore, will remain more or less constant.
and contrary to what its name implies, the Nature Conser- The projected growth in biomass crop potential results
vation Plus Scenario contains no ambitious nature conser- from the expected growth in land yields in conventional
vation targets of its own. plant production, plans to reduce over-production, and the
Figure 8
Biomass Potential for Energy Savings under Various Nature Conservation Requirements
1,000 1,000
Basic Nature conservation plus
800 800
600 600
[PJ/a]
[PJ/a]
400 400
200 200
0 0
15
shrinking population. In the medium and longer term, na- biodiesel (line in Figure 9). On the other hand, it must be
ture conservation activities will produce significant quan- noted that – as shown in Figure 8 – the Nature Conserva-
tities of energy-giving biomass (wood from the mainte- tion Plus Scenario projects a manifold increase in fuel
nance of forest fringe lands and hedgerows, hay from potential in subsequent decades.
landscape maintenance, etc.). There is great potential in
hedgerow maintenance, although sufficient hedge bio- At European level, similar quantity potential is estimated
mass per area would have to be produced to make it via- for the production of biofuels in conventional agriculture.
Thus, according to the EU Commission, using a maxi-
ble (see METTE, 2003 on viability). This can only be
mum 10 per cent of arable land for biofuels would
guaranteed in part in northern areas of Germany (RODE,
achieve an approximate 8 per cent share of the fuel mar-
1997). The Nature Conservation Plus Scenario also in-
ket (EU Commission, 2001).
cludes targets to expand ecoagriculture.
The figures clearly illustrate that at present, the quantity
Figure 9 shows the area of land available for biomass potential in domestically produced biofuels is around an
crops in 2010 compared with the area needed to achieve order of magnitude of ten below that of the fuel quantities
the EU 5.75 per cent biofuel target (Directive 2003/30/ actually needed. Discussions on alternative uses for the
EC). It shows the available land needed in both the Basic available fuels and the land-use options for biomass pro-
and Nature Conservation Plus Scenarios along with the duction must therefore take account of the fact that cur-
crop coverage needed for the biofuel variants using rent efforts touch upon only a small section of the fuel
biodiesel and ethanol derived from sugarbeet or wheat. market. This aspect becomes less prominent if fuel con-
sumption can be reduced (Section 7.3) and the projected
Under the Basic Scenario, the EU 2010 target of 5.75 per
potential actually used. Domestic biofuels could take a
cent could be achieved if area-specific yields of ethanol
significant share of the fuel market under such conditions.
production from sugarbeet were supplemented by biodie-
sel production. Land use under the Nature Conservation There is a need for in-depth study on imports of biofuels
Plus Scenario would mean missing the EU target by a and raw materials for biofuel production. In a summary
wide margin. Instead of the 5.75 per cent fuel share, this report, FRITSCHE et al. (2004) provide hope as regards
variant would produce 0.78 per cent sugarbeet and etha- crop-growing for fuel production in developing countries
nol, 0.35 per cent wheat and ethanol and 0.31 per cent whose quantity potential, surprisingly, lies in the magni-
Figure 9
Crop Coverage Needed to Meet the EU 2010 Target of 5.75 per cent Biofuel and Available Arable Land
3,000
2,500
2,000
[1,000 ha]
1,500
1,000
500
0
Basic
Basic Nature conser- Sugarbeet Wheat RME
vation plus ethanol ethanol
16
tude of the combined needs of the EU-25 and the USA. of biomass crops can certainly have a positive impact on
They also point, however, to possible social problems, an- nature conservation. In the production of biofuels, how-
ticipated environmental problems and the inability to ever, sugarbeet, rapeseed and cereals are used that are usu-
fully evaluate imports based on sustainability criteria. In ally produced in intensive farming. The use of fertilisers
both the short and medium term, the authors see potential and pesticides eutrophies and pollutes waterbodies and
for developing countries to export biodiesel produced neighbouring ecosystems, and indirectly promotes sum-
from a range of oils and fats, and also bioethanol; in the mer smog (Figure 10; see BMU, 2004b; REINHARDT
longer term, export of BTL fuels might be another possi- and ZEMANEK, 1999). Alongside nitrous oxide (N2O), a
bility. The impacts on economic development, including highly effective climate gas, ammonia (NH3) also pollutes
on food supply and social structures, from the growth of the atmosphere to cause acidification and eutrophication.
this kind of export-focused production in developing
countries is seen as similarly problematical to those in- Apart from pollution from biomass crops, consideration
volved in the production of other cash crops. FRITSCHE must also be given to a range of other nature conserva-
et al. (ibid.) have thus developed a checklist of the social tion-related impacts as listed below in brief:
and economic issues and the environmental impacts in- – The impact of land management on groundwater re-
volved. This approach may well give rise to a certifica- plenishment
tion system that at minimum would guarantee environ-
mentally compatible production in the countries of origin. – The potential loss of valuable biotopes and species in
need of protection due to use of set-aside land
Isolated consideration of biofuels does not provide the an-
– The potential loss of endangered accompanying flora
swer, however. What is needed is an integrated model for
species resulting from intensified land use
the production and use of renewable resources – one that
includes evaluation of all production and use paths (mate- – The impact on biodiversity of using residual material
rial and energy uses). This is the only way to ensure the from agriculture and forestry.
best possible use of what is a relatively small quantity of
available biomass compared to the quantities of primary The full extent of the negative impacts from further ex-
energy and petroleum used. pansion of biomass cultivation has yet to come to light.
The impact of short rotation plantations on the plant and
22. Use of biofuels is currently obstructed by compa- animal worlds remains unclear (for initial studies see
rably high production costs. At between 35 and 49 ct/l, LIESEBACH and ZASPEL, undated). Pollen from short
the cost of producing biodiesel – the most widely used rotation plantations could alter the gene pool in wild pop-
biofuel – is significantly higher than that of conventional ulations of tree species (within-species bastardisation).
diesel at 28.6 ct/l (MWV, 2004). The German Federal En- Reproduction in breeding species of these trees is mostly
vironmental Agency believes that, even in the longer vegetative. Stocks of one variety are thus built up using
term, biodiesel will not become competitive because its one genotype, a practice which entails a high risk to sur-
competitive disadvantage is of a structural nature rounding wild populations from cross pollination. The ge-
(KRAUS et al., 1999, p. 16). Production costs are strongly netic uniformity of such stocks poses the risk of sudden
influenced by prices for the joint products rapeseed loss of the entire stock due to fungal and viral disease.
grist and glycerine. Both this and the associated uncer- Any great expansion in energy crop cultivation would
tainty as regards the marketability of large quantities must lead, among other things, to significant changes in the
be taken into account when expanding production. In landscape. For an in-depth discussion on the nature con-
some cases, plant oil that is produced and used on farms servation aspect of biomass crops see RODE et al. (2005)
can compete with diesel when it comes to production and CHOUDHURY et al. (2004).
costs. In Germany, production costs for bioethanol lie at
Biomass from forests could also be used to produce BTL
best somewhere between 45 and 55 ct/l petrol equivalent
fuels and hydrogen. Caution must be taken, however, to
(compared with productions costs of around 20 ct/l for
avoid intensification being introduced at the cost of na-
petrol (MWV, 2004)), although costs of between 80 and
ture conservation needs – removal of the deadwood so vi-
90 ct/l are not unthinkable (HENKE et al., 2002). The
tal in biotope protection or nutrient-depleting overuse, for
costs involved in the industrial-scale production of BTL
example. Any withdrawal not commensurate with local
fuels (Fischer-Tropsch diesel) are thought to be around
conditions can lead both to an imbalance in nutrient avail-
60 ct/l. Costs for the biomass used in the process make up
ability and to soil acidification (see also RODE, 1999a;
around one-third of the production costs. Once all techno-
RODE, 1999b). Tree harvesting performed at short-
logical enhancement options have been exploited, pro-
spaced intervals can significantly alter the aesthetic quali-
duction costs of around 40 ct/l can be expected at the very
ties of a forest or woodland.
best (HAMELINCK et al., 2003).
Such qualitative impacts from land use are not specific to
Environmental impact of biofuels biofuel production alone but to biomass production in
general. In the promotion of renewable resources,
23. Depending on type, management method and crop whether intended for material or energy use, the resulting
coverage, cultivating and producing biomass can have conflicts with environment protection and nature conser-
differing impacts on the environment and especially on vation needs must be readily acknowledged and allevi-
nature and the landscape. If, for example, intensively ated. The knowledge needed for this purpose has yet to be
farmed land is extensified by coppicing, then the cultivation acquired.
17
F i g u r e 10
300
Iron ore
Bauxite
250
100% = Compact diesel car, 2010
Non-renewable fuels
Greenhouse effect
Acidification
200
Eutrophication
Summer smog
[%]
150
100
50
0
RME Ethanol Hydrogen
(electrolysis with
renewable energy)
Source: BMU, 2004b, p. 85
In sum, environmental impact assessments show that vironmental impact assessments in CONCAWE et al.,
while there are considerable advantages to be had from 2004; REINHARDT and ZEMANEK, 1999; OERTEL
biofuels when compared with the use of fossil fuels and and FLEISCHER, 2001; BMU, 2004b). Distinctions must
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they are also disad- be drawn between (1) greenhouse gas savings achieved
vantageous given their contribution to acidification and compared with conventional fuels per land unit and (2)
eutrophication (Figure 10). greenhouse gas savings achieved per kilometre. A given
24. In biofuel combustion, only those quantities of CO2 fuel can achieve different ratings in these two categories
are released that the plants took from the atmosphere in depending on the yield per hectare and any credits for
the first place. This makes the carbon contained in bio- joint products.
fuels climate-neutral during combustion.
For example, due to the comparably high energy yields
A look at the overall environmental impact of biofuels from sugarbeet, replacing petrol with ethanol derived
shows that energy yields per hectare are partly cancelled from sugarbeet can achieve annual savings of around 12 t
out by energy invested in crop production, transport and CO2eq/ha; replacing diesel with biodiesel would achieve
in downstream processing in particular. Special consider- only about one-sixth of that amount (BMU, 2004b).
ation must be given to nitrous oxide emissions (N2O), Figure 11 uses data from a further study (CONCAWE
which also harm the climate and reduce the net climate et al., 2004) to show the area-specific impacts of different
protection effect. Thus, in terms of the net contribution variants. It highlights, albeit to a lesser degree, the greater
that biofuels make to preventing greenhouse gas emis- impact from sugarbeet ethanol compared with diesel (see
sions, a distinction must be drawn between the different also the area needed to achieve the EU target, Figure 9).
types of fuels and their production methods. At worst, ex- For the near future, gasification of wood (short rotation
tremely high N2O emissions can completely negate the plantations) offers the greatest greenhouse gas savings
net effect of replacing diesel with rapeseed oil (REIN- per unit area. This applies in particular when, rather than
HARDT and ZEMANEK, 1999).
liquid fuel, the resulting product is hydrogen for use in
Compared with conventional petrol and diesel, the use of fuel cells (SCHMITZ et al., 2003; CONCAWE et al.,
biofuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (see the en- 2004).
18
F i g u r e 11
0 5 10 15 20 25
eq/ha
Per vehicle kilometre (i.e. litre of fuel), however, biodie- 104 g CO2eq/km, the Toyota Prius – already available as
sel does better as a substitute for conventional diesel (sav- a production model – meets the study's criteria. The levels
ings of 70 g CO2eq/km) than sugarbeet ethanol used as a recommended in the study for 2010 represent a probable
substitute for petrol (60 g) (CONCAWE et al., 2004). A trend but not what is technically achievable. The potential
similar conclusion is drawn in the environmental impact errors arising from the uncertainty of this projection have
assessments contained in the Federal Environment Minis- little effect on the conclusions drawn in the study.
try study (BMU, 2004a). In terms of impact, biodiesel
Given the differing energy yields per unit area and differ-
produces 57 g CO2eq/km (despite three-fold nitrous oxide ing environmental impacts per unit fuel produced, the
emissions) as opposed to 75 g CO2eq/km from sugarbeet choice between fuel options is dependent on prescribed
ethanol (see Figure 10). The better results with biodiesel parameters (quantities and efficiency requirements). If
come from credits for the joint products rapeseed grist maximisation of greenhouse gas savings through the use
and glycerine, which also effect the negative impact of available area is set as a target, the variants must be
(meaning a saving) in the non-renewables category of the chosen that produce the greatest area-specific result. Ap-
environmental impact assessment (Figure 10). This plication of a different set of criteria (e.g. use of non-re-
means that compared to sugarbeet ethanol, biodiesel re- newable fuels in production or cost-effectiveness) would
quires considerably less energy from non-renewable not necessarily provide the same environmental impact
sources. When looking at the per-kilometre data, it must outcomes.
be remembered that a vehicle's actual fuel consumption
influences the results. The higher the consumption, the 25. With regard to the various options for using biomass
greater the savings potential from the use of alternative as a raw material, as motor fuel and for stationary elec-
fuels. In a study conducted by the European Council for tricity and heat generation, each type of use must be ana-
Automotive Research and Development (EUCAR), Con- lysed in order to optimise the overall environmental costs
servation of Clean Air and Water in Western Europe and benefits. This applies both for specially grown bio-
mass and for biogenic waste.
(CONCAWE) and the EU Commission (CONCAWE
et al., 2004), a comparison of alternative engine technolo- Compared with the energy derived from using solid bio-
gies in 2010 was based on a representative middle-class mass as fuel for stationary sources, biofuels have the dis-
vehicle with greenhouse gas emissions of 139 g CO2eq/ advantage of lower energy yields per unit of raw material
km for petrol and 131 g CO2eq/km for diesel. For petrol- or crop area. Energy is lost during conversion and
driven hybrid vehicles, emissions of 118.6 g CO2eq/km processing and, in the case of conventional biofuels, the
were assumed for 2010, although with emissions of yields from processed plant components are lower than
19
those from miscanthus or short rotation plantations, for trading scheme and can thus be used as a realistic refer-
example. Depending on the form in which it is used, bio- ence value for emissions abatement costs in the energy
mass used for electricity and heat generation can achieve sector and much of industry in general. Table 2 shows
similar (EYRE et al., 2002) or even higher CO2 savings greenhouse gas abatement costs for selected biofuel vari-
(BMU, 2004b; CONCAWE et al., 2004) than when used ants.
in vehicles (Figure 1 and Table 1). The greatest area-spe-
cific CO2 savings can be achieved by using biomass in The „CO2 Mitigation Study“ (QUIRIN et al., 2004) com-
combined heat and power plants to generate electricity as bined the findings from all available studies to produce
a substitute for coal-generated electricity. Depending on bandwidths that show extremely large variation for all
the type of coal used and its origin, electricity generated biofuels. This variation is partly due to the fact that prices
from coal causes between 800 to 1 000 g CO2eq/kWhel, for oil seeds and also those for the joint products grist and
while generation from gas (again depending on its origin) glycerine in biodiesel production are subject to high fluc-
causes 350 to 500 g CO2eq/kWhel (FRITSCHE, 2003). tuations in the global market; depending on relative price
Electricity generated from biomass such as wood from levels, up to half the costs of raw materials (oil seeds) can
short rotation plantations causes somewhere between 50 be covered by income from joint products. Another rea-
and 100 g CO2eq/kWhel (BMU, 2004b). Table 1 shows son is that income from joint products was not taken into
the achievable savings potential under such conditions. account in all the studies analysed because in some in-
stances the marketing of such products is deemed prob-
lematic, especially if production is significantly ex-
panded. The low abatement costs for biodiesel and the
Ta b l e 1 negative abatement costs for rapeseed and sunflower oil
at the lower end of the bandwidth come from the study
Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Various Uses conducted by Kavalov et al. (2003) on the potential from
of One Tonne of Biomass from Short biodiesel and bioethanol in the EU accession countries of
Rotation Plantations 2005. Rather than looking at market prices for oil seeds,
the study looks at production costs in relation to per hec-
GHG Savings tare yields as raw material costs. It reports production
Type of Use costs for rapeseed at below €165/t for yields of approxi-
kg CO2eq/t Biomass
mately 2 t/ha, resulting in biodiesel production costs of
Coal substitution, power less than 30 ct/l. If the costs of transesterification are de-
station without CHP 650 ducted, then prices for rapeseed oil as a fuel amount to
around or below 28 ct/l. This would explain the low or
Gas substitution, CCGT negative abatement costs. Abatement costs are by default
without CHP 270 dependent on the production costs of conventional fuels.
Diesel substitute (Fischer- For example, a study entitled Bioethanol in Deutschland
Tropsch synthesis) 290 (SCHMITZ et al., 2003) cites a drop in abatement costs
for sugarbeet of between €100 and €250/t CO2eq assum-
SRU/EA SG 2005/Table 7.6. ing an increase in the price of crude oil from $30 to $50
Data Source: BMU, 2004b and FRITSCHE, 2003 per barrel. Uncertainty due to fluctuating prices for crude
oil, raw materials and joint products is generally seen as a
downside of any abatement costing exercise. The values
shown in Table 2, which derive from calculations done
From a greenhouse gas savings perspective (for the time for the study, are based on current production costs for
being without considering the costs), the cultivation and petrol, diesel and biofuels and data from the CONCAWE
use of solid biomass as a coal substitute in electricity gen- study (CONCAWE et al., 2004) on greenhouse gas
eration is by far the most effective method. A comparison savings. While the calculations for biodiesel do not take
between the use of gas-generated electricity with that agricultural subsidies into account, the impact of subsi-
from biofuel, on the other hand, shows there is no appre- dies for set-aside is not visible in the current prices for
ciable difference between the two. If coal-generated elec- rapeseed (BROCKS, 2001). Prices for food rapeseed and
tricity were to be replaced by gas-powered electricity non-food rapeseed, which may be cultivated on set-aside
plants in the longer term, then the environmental prefer- land, only differ by a few euros per tonne. A price differ-
ence for biomass use for electricity production ceases to ence of €25/t would reflect a subsidy impact of around
exist. 5 ct/l for biodiesel.
CO2 abatement costs in using biomass crops for bioen- Compared with abatement costs in stationary electricity
ergy from solid and liquid fuel are generally high com- generation of around €50/t CO2eq (BMU, 2004b) or with
pared to the cost of around €8/t CO2 for an emissions the price of emissions allowances, biofuel production is
permit for one tonne of carbon dioxide under the EU currently an expensive way to reduce CO2 emissions. As-
Emissions Trading Scheme (Status: European Energy Ex- sessment of future trends is largely dependent on avail-
change, Leipzig, February 2005). This price represents able technology and its cost, both in transport and in the
the actual marginal abatement costs of emissions reduc- stationary sector. At present, for example, the use of
tion incurred by a company participating in the emissions wood-derived hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles would
20
Ta b l e 2
Abatement costs
Fuel Source
€/t CO2eq
Biodiesel (rapeseed) 35–1,600 QUIRIN et al., 2004
280–350(1) CONCAWE et al., 2004
110 own calculations
Biodiesel (sunflower) 0–750 QUIRIN et al., 2004
220–260(1) CONCAWE et al., 2004
Rapeseed oil – 50–1,000 QUIRIN et al., 2004
Sunflower oil – 50–400 QUIRIN et al., 2004
Bioethanol (sugar cane) 20–150 QUIRIN et al., 2004
Bioethanol from sugarbeet 90–1,100 QUIRIN et al., 2004
250–560(1) CONCAWE et al., 2004
500–1,000 SCHMITZ et al., 2003
320 own calculations
BTL (wood) 100–600 QUIRIN et al., 2004
300 CONCAWE et al., 2004
120 own calculations
Hydrogen (wood) 620–650 CONCAWE et al., 2004
See: EU Emissions Trading approx. 8 European Energy Exchange, Leipzig
(February 2005)
(1) Depending on use of co-products
achieve a similar reduction impact to that from electricity that of conventional diesel soot (BÜNGER et al., 2000;
generation, albeit with considerably higher abatement CARRARO et al., 1997).
costs (BMU, 2004b, see Figure 11). A projection as re-
gards the most effective use of biomass in the longer term No real conclusions can be drawn as regards plant oil-
is not possible due both to the uncertainties surrounding fuelled engines because the emission levels largely de-
future technologies and the costs involved. pend on the engine conversion rather than on the fuel. Ac-
cording to retrofitters Vereinigte Werkstätten für Pflan-
While other emissions that arise from the use of biomass zenöltechnolgie (VWP Allersberg), complying with
as an energy vector are not discussed in this report, it prevailing exhaust gas standards poses no problems when
must be pointed out that a critical eye should be kept on adapting conventional engines to plant oil. The difficulty
emission yields from any significant expansion of bio- lies in the fact that under current legislation, approval
mass use in stationary facilities, especially small facili- testing of modified vehicles is done with conventional
ties, not covered by the Ordinance on Large-Scale Com- diesel vehicles and thus the retrofitters must guarantee
bustion Plants (13th BImSchV). low emissions and reliable operation with both types of
fuel.
26. The emissions from diesel engines are altered if
conventional diesel is replaced by biodiesel – the changes
achieved being dependent on the type of engine involved. 3.2.2 Natural Gas
Emissions due to less-than-full combustion tend to be re- 27. Natural gas can be used for transport, either in the
duced, while NOx emissions increase. Reductions in par- form of highly compressed natural gas or as liquefied na-
ticles, HC and CO are normally between 30 and 40 per tural gas.
cent, while the increase in NOx amounts to between 10
and 20 per cent. A mixture of biodiesel and conventional Compared with petrol, compressed natural gas (CNG) has
diesel effects changes in emissions more or less in line the disadvantage of a lower energy density and thus
with the biodiesel share of the mixture (MUNACK et al., achieves a lesser range on a full tank of fuel. With current
2003). The mutagenic impact of biodiesel soot is less than gas storage methods and maximum pressure of 200 bar,
21
some 4.5 times extra volume must be carried compared atively small advantage from gas as regards greenhouse
with petrol and four times as much compared with diesel gas emissions in the transport sector, pipelines losses
in order to obtain the same amount of energy as from pet- have a greater impact on the assessment than they do in,
rol (BACH, 2002; LEXEN, 2002). say, energy and heat production (SRU 2004, Sec-
tion 2.2.3).
The advantage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) lies in its
low volume (compressed up to a factor of 600). However, From an energy and environment perspective, synthetic
it must be stored in a well-insulated tank at temperatures diesel produced from natural gas offers no real advan-
below –162 °C. From a climate perspective, the CNG op- tages over direct use of natural gas. In fact, the additional
tion is slightly more beneficial due to the lower conversion conversion step requires even more energy to produce
losses compared with liquefied natural gas (RAMESOHL synthetic diesel which means it actually has a negative
et al., 2003). In Germany, a trend has developed towards impact on the environment (RAMESOHL et al., 2003).
CNG in place of LNG. The chemical conversion process One advantage of synthetic diesel over direct use of natu-
(Fischer-Tropsch synthesis) allows use of natural gas for ral gas for fuel is that there is no longer a need for a new
production of synthetic fuels (Synfuel, GTL) and for con- filling station infrastructure or for vehicle conversion.
version to hydrogen (RAMESOHL et al., 2003). Compared with conventional diesel, synthetic diesel of-
fers improved quality with better ignition and emissions
Natural gas in fuel form can be used as a substitute for pet- free from sulphur, nitrogen and aromatics.
rol in petrol engines. Given the limited filling station infra-
structure, most manufacturers rely on bivalent vehicles 29. With regard to emissions of other atmospheric pol-
that can be driven on either petrol or natural gas. Natural lutants, combustion engines fuelled with natural gas are
gas engines make for soot-free combustion, extremely low more advantageous compared with petrol-driven engines.
NOx rates and odourless exhaust gases. In terms of green- This is mostly due to improved natural gas combustion.
house gas emissions, a differentiated assessment is needed Fuel is prevented from condensing on cold engine parts,
with regard to the upstream supply chain. which significantly reduces cold-start emissions (BACH,
2002). Compared with a petrol-driven engine, emissions
28. Well-to-tank greenhouse gas emissions from natural of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons are significantly
gas are highly dependent on assumptions regarding origin lower; there are no particle and benzole emissions at all
and transportation route parameters and pipeline losses: (PEHNT, 2001). In terms of nitrogen oxide emissions, na-
taking the entire processing chain into account and as- tural gas has the advantage over diesel. While, for ex-
suming the current most favourable EU mix, well-to-tank ample, a diesel bus (Euro III) puts out sixty times as much
emissions could be as much as 30 per cent below those nitrogen oxides as a passenger car with a petrol engine, a
from petrol. In the case of a 7,000 km-long compressed bus running on natural gas only puts out eight times as
gas pipeline or a liquefied gas pipeline, some studies cal- much (FEISST, 2002).
culate greenhouse gas emissions at between 60 to 85 per
cent higher than those from petrol (CONCAWE et al., All of these benefits become significantly reduced, how-
2003a; RAMESOHL et al., 2003). New measurements ever, when Euro 4 standards are complied with, and with
have, by way of contrast, produced significantly lower the broad introduction of advanced exhaust gas treatment
pipeline losses in Russian gas pipelines. These should be technologies in cars (particle filters and NOx storage cata-
taken into account in future calculations (Wuppertal Insti- lytic converters). Then again, if the technological ad-
tute, 2005). vancements in engine control and exhaust gas treatment
already achieved with petrol-driven vehicles could be ef-
When it comes to bivalent vehicles, combustion of natu- fected for natural gas-powered vehicles, then their al-
ral gas in a petrol engine is, in some instances, still less ready low emissions could be further reduced by a signif-
efficient than that of petrol (RAMESOHL et al., 2003; icant amount (BACH, 2002).
KOLKE et al., 2003). In adapted engines, CO2 emissions
can be expected to drop by some 20 per cent due to the 30. The use of natural gas in transportation stands in di-
better anti-knock properties of natural gas compared with rect competition with its use in the electricity generation
petrol, with levels similar to those achieved by diesel sector, which is set to grow significantly in the future. If
engines. Without taking the upstream supply chain into the coal used for electricity production is replaced by na-
account, specific vehicle emissions of 110 g CO2eq/km tural gas, up to ten times more GHG equivalents can be
(CONCAWE et al., 2003b; LEXEN, 2002) are projected saved per energy equivalent used than by replacing petrol
for 2010. This is also similar to the figures for conven- with natural gas for road transport (CONCAWE et al.,
tional fuels in improved combustion engines. 2004). Wide use of natural gas for road transport, on the
other hand, comes up against the high costs of creating a
As regards well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions, a nation-wide infrastructure.
gas-powered vehicle is more advantageous than a petrol-
driven vehicle if the current EU mix for natural gas is as- Based on the above, vehicles powered by natural gas
sumed; no benefits are detectable compared with diesel would appear to make sense where concentrated emis-
vehicles (Figure 10). Assuming that transportation dis- sions can result in direct local harm due to high volumes
tances for gas delivery will be greater in the future, the at- of traffic, especially in inner-city areas. It would make
tractiveness of gas is lessened. The evaluation ultimately particular sense to convert public transport fleets and
depends on pipeline losses and type of use. Given the rel- taxis, as this would quickly effect a significant reduction
22
F i g u r e 12
Well-to-Wheel Analysis of Total GHG Emissions from Vehicles Fuelled by Natural Gas
or Conventional Fuels
ra gas
Natural as
Bivalent petrol/gas, 2002, pressurised gas, 7,000 km pipeline
Na
Petrol hybrid 2010, pressurised EU gas
Adapted petrol engine, 2010, pressurised EU gas
Bivalent petrol/gas, 2010, pressurised EU gas
Bivalent petrol/gas, 2002, pressurised EU gas
P tro die el
Petrol/diese
Petrol hybrid, 2010
Direct injection petrol engine, 2010
Direct injection petrol engine, 2002
Conventional petrol engine, 2002
0 50 100 150 200
g CO2/km, including supply chain
in emissions and would not require cost-intensive devel- sation for Economic Cooperation and Development
opment of a nation-wide filling station infrastructure. The (OECD) also sees great potential in the use of hydrogen
use of processed natural gas as synthetic diesel could lead in the mobile sector (see IEA, 2003). There is also a
to dramatic reductions in traditional air pollutants, espe- strong lobby for a hydrogen strategy at European level:
cially in heavy transport (EYRE et al., 2002), but not to a the President of the EU Commission and the EU's Trans-
decline in greenhouse gas emissions. port, Energy and Research commissioners have presented
31. Along with natural gas, methanol is also under dis-
a communication on an EU Roadmap Towards a Euro-
cussion as a potential energy source in an interim strategy pean Partnership for a Sustainable Hydrogen Economy
for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (VES, 2001). The advan- (Press Release IP/03/1229). The High Level Group on
tage of methanol lies in its comparably simple production Hydrogen and Fuel Cells was established in October 2002
from fossil fuels and biomass, and in the fact that it can be and presented its vision for a European hydrogen econ-
easily stored as a liquid fuel. From a greenhouse gas per- omy in June 2003 (HLG, 2003).
spective, methanol offers the greatest reduction potential
The German Advisory Council on the Environment also
when produced from biomass. Its potential in this regard
is limited, however (see Para. 21). believes that hydrogen technology will play a key role in
the future. Any assessment of the technology, however,
depends on the emissions associated with hydrogen pro-
3.2.3 Hydrogen Technology and Transport duction. If, for example, production switched to hydrogen
32. A combination of hydrogen and fuel cell technology derived from fossil fuels, the energy and climate balance
could help to reduce environmental problems in both the would no longer be acceptable because the amount of
mobile and stationary sectors – a zero emissions car primary energy used to produce hydrogen would at best
powered by hydrogen obtained without releasing CO2 has be three times as high as in the production of petrol
been promoted for some considerable time. With the (WALLENTOWITZ and NEUNZIG, 2001, p. 38). Inte-
President's Hydrogen Initiative, the American govern- gration of nuclear energy into the hydrogen technology
ment plans to initiate a research campaign in this sector system, as proposed in some quarters, as a component of
which it will fund to the tune of $1.2 billion over the next hydrogen production cannot be considered due to the
five years (US Department of Energy, 2004). The Organi- risks and unresolved disposal problems.
23
33. The use of hydrogen as a long-term technological or the Kværner process. Significantly more energy is
fix for emissions reduction is currently being researched needed to produce hydrogen than for petrol. At between
in two different areas: production of engine power using 100 g CO2eq/MJ (natural gas reforming from an EU mix)
fuel cells (e.g. Daimler-Chrysler: NECAR 5) and com- and 190 CO2eq/MJ (gasification of coal plus CO shift),
bustion of hydrogen in a combustion engine (e.g. BMW: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-generated hydrogen
745h, 750hL). Fuel cells, which achieve better levels of are considerably higher than those from generic fuels
efficiency compared to the combustion engine, are how- which lie in the range of 14.2 g CO2eq/MJ (diesel) and
ever regarded as the longer term solution for mobile use 12.5 g CO2eq/MJ (petrol) (CONCAWE et al., 2003a). In
of hydrogen (WB BMVBW, 2002). electrolysis, the use of coal-generated electricity produces
the poorest results, with greenhouse gas emissions of
If in place of hydrogen, whose use due to its low energy
420 g CO2eq/MJ. Electricity generated from nuclear en-
density is only feasible when it is stored in liquid form
ergy produces around 7 g CO2eq/MJ, while electricity
under extremely high pressure or at very low tempera-
from renewable energy sources produces 9.1 g CO2eq/MJ
tures, a fuel-cell vehicle is powered by natural gas, petrol
(offshore wind energy; see Figure 13). Full conversion of
or methanol, then these must be converted on-board into
all passenger vehicles in Germany would result in a hy-
hydrogen. In turn, the hydrogen must be cleaned before
drogen demand of 700 PJ and take some 290 TWh of
being fed to the fuel cell. A fuel cell that can be powered
electricity to produce it. This amounts to about half of the
directly with methanol is currently under development,
gross electricity generated in Germany today (AGEB,
although it is not yet suited to use in the mobile sector
2004).
(Enquete Commission, 2002, p. 219; OERTEL and
FLEISCHER, 2001, p. 91). Due to the sometimes high greenhouse gas emissions oc-
curring in hydrogen production, fuel cell vehicles can in
34. The key benefits of fuel cell technology are its
some cases effect no primary energy savings compared
mechanical simplicity, low maintenance, independence
with optimised, low-consumption combustion engines
from oil and high-performance on-board energy supply
(OERTEL and FLEISCHER, 2001, p. 295; KOLKE,
(STOLTEN et al., 2002, p. 488). In-vehicle storage of hy-
1999; SRU, 2002, Para. 1397). As opposed to its use in
drogen remains one of the key problems, however. Stor-
the stationary sector, the effectiveness of a fuel cell is re-
age of hydrogen in pressurised containers requires ex-
duced in mobile use although it still reaches between 40
treme pressures of 350 bar and more. Another problem is
and 50 per cent or more (KOLKE, 1999, p. 46; also
that due to the gas's high diffusion rate, a tank filled with
CONCAWE et al., 2003b). Taking account of the entire
hydrogen would be empty after just a few months and
energy chain, including the complex processes of hydro-
also poses a potential hazard. Alternative storage options
gen production and liquefication, current effectiveness is
such as chemical storage in metal hydride batteries might
estimated at between 20 and 30 per cent (STOLTEN
well be safer and more compact than pressurised conta-
et al., 2002, p. 467).
iners, but their storage capacities per unit weight are
rather low. This makes mass production of fuel cells at af- 36. On the whole, the use of hydrogen technology can
fordable prices unrealistic, especially as there is as yet no effect significant greenhouse gas savings if hydrogen is
substitute for platinum as a catalyst. Another barrier that produced from renewable energy carriers and is used in
should not be underestimated is the need for a new infra- fuel cell vehicles. Total emissions would then amount to
structure in order to supply the nation's vehicles with hy- around 10 g CO2eq/km. Fuel cell vehicles powered with
drogen (see also VES, 2001; WALLENTOWITZ and hydrogen produced from natural gas reforming put out
NEUNZIG, 2001, p. 35). between 93 and 116 g CO2eq/km depending on the origin
of the gas itself. This lies in the range of emissions
Energy balance and climate impact of (mobile) achieved with a consumption-optimised combustion engine
hydrogen technology powered by conventional fuels.
35. Hydrogen-powered vehicles produce no or few di- Looking beyond the transport sector, the use of renewab-
rect emissions and are CO2-free. However, any assess- les-generated hydrogen as a fuel is questionable both
ment of the energy balance and environmental impact de- from an environmental and an economic standpoint. At
pends not only on the efficiency of energy use in present, it would make more sense to use renewable
powering the vehicle, but on the upstream process chain energy carriers in stationary electricity production and to
and, first and foremost, the primary energy carriers used use that renewables-generated electricity directly
in hydrogen production. (RAMESOHL et al., 2003; NITSCH et al., 2001;
KOLKE, 1999, p. 13; EYRE et al., 2002; see also com-
A number of processes exist for producing hydrogen. peting uses for biomass, Para. 21).
These include steam reforming of natural gas, oil gasifi-
cation, methanol reforming, the Kværner process (break- From a purely economic perspective, it would also make
down of hydrocarbons in an electric arc into pure hydro- sense to increase the share of renewable energy in the
gen and pure carbon), gasification or fermentation of electricity sector before doing the same in the transport
biomass and electrolytic water-splitting. CO2 emissions sector. The reason being that the costs of replacing fossil
could thus occur during production of hydrogen: during fuels with renewable energy carriers in the electricity sec-
direct conversion of fossil and biogenic energy carriers tor are significantly lower than those in the fuel sector
and in the production of electricity needed for electrolysis (NITSCH et al., 2001, p. 366 f).
24
F i g u r e 13
Wood gasification
3.3 Evaluation efficiency. For this reason, the German Advisory Council
on the Environment would prefer to see a source-focused
37. Although alternative fuels like biomass and hydro- strategy towards reducing transport-related CO2 emis-
gen offer significant reduction potential, at least in the lon- sions based on the use of economic instruments. At first
ger term, the German Advisory Council on the Environ- glance, the ideal solution might be to regulate CO2 emis-
ment believes that given the as yet limited potential and sions from transport by using a single pricing policy in-
comparably high abatement costs, it would make more strument that places its main focus on fuel consumption.
sense to place greater priority on further exploitation of the However, a policy of this kind would appear difficult to
technical options for CO2 reduction in vehicles with con- implement due to prevailing price elasticities. According
ventional engines. Available technology already allows to HANLY et al. (2002, p. 11), a 10 per cent increase in
savings of over 40 per cent compared with the current ave- fuel prices in passenger transport would effect only about
rage fuel consumption of newly registered passenger cars a 3 per cent drop in demand in the shorter term. Looking
fuelled with petrol and up to 40 per cent with diesel. This at the longer term outcome, and taking account of further
brings average specific CO2 emissions from newly regis- adjustment options, the drop in demand would still only
tered passenger cars down to around 100 g/km. The main be 6 per cent. These figures are largely consistent with
options for emission reduction include improved engine numerous other studies on price elasticity of fuel demand
technologies, ensuring that engines run in the optimum in passenger transport (Victoria Transport Policy Insti-
performance range through downsizing and improved tute, 2004; KNIESTEDT, 1999). The slow response to
gearbox spacing, optimum energy management, hybridi- fuel prices is also highlighted in a survey commissioned
sation, and reduced vehicle weight and rolling resistance. by the German Federal Environmental Agency, where
some 60 per cent of car owners questioned said they did
4 Implementation not intend to change their driving habits until such time as
petrol prices doubled those in 2002 (KUCKARTZ and
38. No direct regulatory provisions exist at present on GRUNENBERG, 2002, p. 73). Based on the findings of
reducing specific CO2 emissions and thus fuel consump- earlier surveys, it must also be borne in mind that a
tion. While direct regulation might be possible in prin- phased price increase would have a normalising effect
ciple, economic instruments offer a range of uncontested and make actual changes in driving habits less pro-
benefits for CO2 emissions in terms of overall economic nounced – as the various surveys confirm (DAT, 2002).
25
Fuel prices are even less elastic in the freight transport The following sections are restricted to the emissions
sector than in passenger transport because fuel costs make trading model and CO2-based vehicle taxation, as these
up only an average 6 per cent of transport costs across all recommendations come under the 'measures at source'
freight groups in short-distance freight and 19 per cent in impact category. It must be pointed out, however, that
long-distance freight. Added to that is the fact that in emissions trading and CO2-based vehicle taxation can
freight transport the substitution options as regards modal only reach their true potential when combined with the
splitting are considerably less than those in passenger other measures outlined earlier. With regard to those
transport. measures, which fall into the 'transport management
39. The stated elasticities imply that fuel demand does measures' category, reference is made to the original text
vary in line with changes in price, but not at anything like of the German-language Special Report (SRU, 2005).
the same rate. Any attempt to reduce CO2 emissions in
the transport sector by raising fuel prices would thus fail 4.1 The Car Industry and Voluntary
due to the high price level required and, in consequence, Agreements
on the issue of political acceptability. This can be illus-
trated by reference to the Enquete Commission (2002) re- Background
port on Sustainable Energy Supply in Times of Globalisa-
tion and Liberalisation, which identified a need to cut 40. Along with fiscal incentives (CO2-based vehicle tax-
transport-related CO2 emissions by up to 55 per cent by ation) and an obligation to inform consumers (Labelling
2050. Based on a long-term price elasticity of –0.6 and a Directive), the commitments made under the European
10-year adjustment period, a 55 per cent reduction target car industry's voluntary agreement provide the third pillar
would require fuel prices to rise, adjusted for inflation, to of the Community strategy to reduce carbon dioxide
1.9 times today's prices by 2040. At an average 2 per cent (CO2) emissions from cars (EU Commission, 1995). The
inflation rate, this would mean that fuel prices would voluntary agreement is designed to ensure that emissions
need to rise by almost 10 ct/l each year to reach a nominal drop to a level of 140 g CO2/km by 2008, the remaining
price of around €4.70/l in 2040. These figures make it 20 g CO2/km reduction to be achieved with the other two
clear that any attempt to achieve the required leverage pillars of the Community strategy.
with higher fuel prices is destined to failure from the out-
set purely on the grounds that it would be politically un- 41. In 1998, following several years of negotiation, the
acceptable. This is why regulation of transport-related European Automobile Manufacturers Association
CO2 emissions requires a combination of economic in- (ACEA – see box) voluntarily agreed to reduce average
struments that allow its management to address different CO2 emissions from new passenger cars to between 165
actors and behavioural changes. This would, however, re- and 170 g CO2/km by 2003 and to 140 g CO2/km by
sult in a target-setting conflict: the wider the range of in- 2008 (the latter representing a 25 per cent drop in fuel
struments used, the lesser the impact each individual in- consumption compared with 1995). European carmakers
strument can have in order to increase its chances of also want to look at the potential for further CO2 emission
being implemented in policy. Depending on the number reductions to achieve a target of 120 g CO2/km by 2012
of instruments used, however, the risk of overlapping or (representing fuel consumption of 5.16 l/100 km for pet-
even contradictions becomes greater and can thus affect rol and 4.56 l/100 km for diesel). All stated reductions are
acceptance and implementability of the policy mix over- based on the average for M1 category passenger cars
all (as reported by the Scientific Advisory Council to the (defined in Annex I of Council Regulation 70/156/EEC)
Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing, sold in the EU by ACEA member companies.
1992). What is needed is a combination of economic in-
struments that concentrate on the key reference points and
place both carmakers and car owners under obligation.
This would involve:
Automobile Associations
– A switch from self-regulation under the European car ACEA (Association des Constructeurs Européens d'Au-
industry's voluntary agreement to an emissions trading tomobiles): BMW AG, DaimlerChrysler AG, Fiat
system that targets fuel consumption in vehicles S. p. A., Ford of Europe Inc., General Motors Europe
– A vehicle taxation system that places greater focus on AG, Porsche AG, PSA Peugeot Citroën, Renault SA, AB
CO2 emissions than it has so far Volvo und Volkswagen AG.
KAMA (Korea Automobile Manufacturers Associa-
– Further phased increases in the ecotax levied on petrol
tion): Daewoo Motor Co. Ltd., Hyundai Motor Com-
and diesel fuels
pany und Kia Motors Corporation.
– Further development of Germany's commercial vehi- JAMA (Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association):
cle toll system introduced on 2 January 2005 Daihatsu Motor Corporation Ltd., Fuji Heavy Industries
– Where appropriate, introduction of localised road tolls Ltd. (Subaru), Honda Motor Corporation Ltd., Isuzu
for passenger vehicles to ease congestion in built-up Motors Ltd., Mazda Motor Corporation, Nissan Motor
areas, and/or larger-scale parking space management Corporation Ltd., Mitsubishi Corporation, Suzuki Mo-
measures. tor Corporation und Toyota Motor Corporation.
26
42. The ACEA made its commitments under the volun- interim target for 2003 back in 2000 (EU Commission,
tary agreement subject to the following conditions: 2002a) and at 165 g CO2/km is now at the lower end
of the target range. JAMA achieved the interim target
– Availability of sufficiently high quality fuel to allow in 2002. KAMA's progress remains unsatisfactory de-
further advancements in engine technology. In re- spite it having caught up slightly in the past two years.
sponse, the EU Commission in 2001 presented its pro-
posal to amend Directive 98/70 (COM(2001)241), – To achieve the voluntary agreement target of
which resulted in 2003 in Directive 2003/17/EC 140 g CO2/km, additional efforts are necessary as all
amending Directive 98/70/EC relating to the quality of three associations need to increase their average re-
petrol and diesel fuels. ductions. An average annual reduction of around 2 per
cent or 3.5 g CO2/km is needed over the period 1995
– Non-ACEA members, particularly those in Japan and to 2008/9. As previous annual reduction rates have
Korea, should agree to the same commitments to been significantly lower, abatement efforts must be
avoid the European car industry being placed at a stepped up throughout the remaining years if the
competitive disadvantage by imports. The EU Com- 140 g CO2/km target is to be achieved by 2008/9.
mission responded in 1998 by initiating similar volun- Thus, in each of the remaining years up to 2008/9,
tary agreements with the Korea Automobile Manu- ACEA needs to achieve an annual 2.5 per cent reduc-
facturers Association and Japan Automobile tion, JAMA 2.8 per cent and KAMA 3.4 per cent (EU
Manufacturers Association (KAMA and JAMA – see Commission, 2004b).
box). As an interim target, JAMA agreed to average
CO2 emissions of between 165 and 170 g CO2/km by – Meeting the Community's more ambitious target of re-
2003. Korean automobile manufacturers agreed to the ducing specific CO2 emissions to 120 g CO2/km for
same interim target for 2004. Both associations aim to newly registered passenger cars in the EU by 2010
reach a target of 140 g CO2/km in 2009. would require achieving an average annual reduction
of 3.5 per cent at EU level. This is significantly higher
– EU-wide distribution of new vehicle technologies than what has been achieved on average between 1995
should be obstructed neither by fiscal nor other policy and 2002 (about 1.5 per cent). Both the ACEA and the
measures. Also, the ACEA retained the right to moni- EU Commission had anticipated that the reduction
tor economic trends and to adapt the reduction target rate would increase over time but the EU Commission
should employment conditions become unfavourable now believes that additional efforts have to be made in
or a distortion of competition occur. order to meet the target by 2010.
The EU Commission responded by reserving the right to
impose a binding legal framework should the ACEA fail Evaluation
to meet the 2008 emissions target or make no adequate
progress towards achieving it. Details of the legal frame- 44. The German Advisory Council on the Environment
work have not yet been announced. has taken up the problems of voluntary agreements on a
number of occasions, recommending a careful, if
43. To monitor trends involving both the commitments anything restrictive use of the instrument (SRU, 2004,
made under the voluntary agreement and the underlying Section 13; SRU, 2002a, Para. 446 ff; SRU, 1998,
assumptions, especially as regards economic trends, the Para. 276 ff). In particular, the Council criticised the fact
EU Commission and the ACEA agreed that the findings that an association's inability to place its members under
of monitoring activities should be included in regular re- obligation, and the ensuing free-rider problems, means
ports issued by the EU Commission. The key findings of that self-regulation at industry association level only al-
the fourth annual report on the effectiveness of the Com- lows the pursuit of very unambitious targets that rarely
munity strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from cars (EU extend beyond business-as-usual. Further, the Council
Commission, 2004b) for the period 1995 to 2002 include: called for voluntary agreements to be supported by an ef-
fective sanctioning mechanism which would kick in if
– Taking account of all measures adopted by the EU and targets are not met. The European car industry's voluntary
its Member States, average specific CO2 emissions agreement contains serious weaknesses on both counts.
from passenger cars in the EU dropped from
186 g CO2/km to 166 g CO2/km during the period 45. Although the ACEA is highly organised and has a
1995 to 2002. According to official data supplied by comparably small number of members, this by no means
the Member States, average specific CO2 emissions eliminates the free-rider problem and its negative impacts
from passenger cars in 2002 amounted to 165 g CO2/ on target achievement. On 30 April 2002, for example,
km among ACEA, 176 g CO2/km among JAMA and the ACEA notified the EU Commission that Rover had
183 g CO2/km among KAMA. According to ACEA's left the association. While Rover then only had about a
statistics, its members achieved specific CO2 emis- one per cent share of the passenger car market in the Eu-
sions of 163 g CO2/km (see Table 3 for more details). ropean Union (VDA, 2002), its departure from the ACEA
could incite other carmakers to leave the association if
– Both JAMA and ACEA have made good progress, al- they were to experience financial difficulties. Also, there
though ACEA's performance in 2002 was poorer than is no explicit means of distributing the burden between
that in previous years. ACEA did, however, meet the ACEA members, meaning that each member company
27
Ta b l e 3
Average Specific CO2 Emissions for Newly Registered Passenger Cars between 1995 and 2002
(CO2 emissions in g/km)
Change
ACEA 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001(3) 2002(3)
95/02 (%)(4)
Petrol vehicles 188 186 183 182 180 177 172 172/ – 8.5/
171(5) – 9.0 %(6)
Diesel vehicles 176 174 172 167 161 157 153 155/ – 11.9/
152(5) – 13.6 %(6)
All fuels(1) 185 183 180 178 174 169 165 165/ – 10.8/
163(5) – 12.1(6)
Change
JAMA(2) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001(3) 2002(3)
95/02 (%)(4)
Petrol vehicles 191 187 184 184 181 177 174 172 – 9.9 %
Diesel vehicles 239 235 222 221 221 213 198 180 – 24.7 %
All fuels(1) 196 193 188 189 187 183 178 174 – 11.2 %
Change
KAMA(2) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001(3) 2002(3)
95/02 (%)(4)
Petrol vehicles 195 197 201 198 189 185 179 178 – 8.7 %
Diesel vehicles 309 274 246 248 253 245 234 203 – 34.3 %
All fuels(1) 197 199 203 202 194 191 187 183 – 7.1 %
Change
EU-15(2*) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001(3) 2002(3)
95/02 (%)(4)
Petrol vehicles 189 186 184 182 180 178 173 172 – 9.0 %
Diesel vehicles 179 178 175 171 165 163 156 157 – 12.3 %
All fuels(1) 186 184 182 180 176 172 167 166 – 10.8 %
(1) Petrol and diesel-fuelled vehicles only, other fuels and statistically unidentified vehicles are not expected to affect these averages significantly.
(2) Data for 2002 based on that from Member States. Data under Change 95/02: the 95 data came from the associations and the 2002 data from the
Member States.
(2*) New passenger cars put on the EU market by manufacturers not covered by the commitments would not influence the EU average significantly.
(3) The figures for 2001 and 2002 are corrected by 0.7 per cent for the change in driving cycle.
(4) Percentages are calculated from unrounded CO figures; data for 2002 from Member States.
2
(5) The first figure is based on data from Member States; the second figure is based on data from ACEA.
(6) The first figure is based on 2002 data from Member States and 1995 data from ACEA; the second figure is based solely on data from ACEA.
28
remains free to decide how much it contributes to achiev- place a suitable passenger car fleet on the market, there
ing the commitment targets. What is essentially an would be no guarantee that consumers would actually buy
entirely unguided process can hardly balance marginal only those vehicles that, in the aggregate, comply with
abatement costs between the various carmakers and the standards. Although technological practicability poses
achieve the reduction at minimal cost. This would not no problem and, from a technology perspective, the target
seem an efficient solution (ZERLE, 2004, p. 76 ff). In this lies within the business-as-usual range, significant reduc-
regard, criticism is also made of the fact that in their tions must still be achieved by 2008. Today's average an-
monitoring activities, neither the ACEA nor the EU Com- nual reductions of 3 g CO2/km (1.7 per cent) must be in-
mission (contrary to its original announcement (EU Com- creased to 4 g CO2/km (2.5 per cent) (EU Commission,
mission, 1998)) publish the reductions achieved by 2004b). The voluntary agreement would, however, appear
individual carmakers (KÅGESON, 2005). This conscious an unsuitable instrument to initiate such further reduc-
lack of transparency means that the environmental aware- tions in fuel consumption. This is all the more so consid-
ness shown by individual carmakers, and thus the reduc- ering that self-regulation has only an indirect impact on
tions they achieve, cannot flow into consumers' consumer behaviour and thus on the composition of the
purchasing decisions when choosing a new vehicle. passenger car fleet actually sold. Greater reductions to
achieve the 2012 target of 120 g CO2/km can therefore
46. The voluntary agreement target falls far short of only be made using alternative instruments that eliminate
what is technically possible. From a technological per- the mismatch between those who the standards target and
spective, it would be possible by 2010 to halve the aver- those who comply with them.
age consumption levels of new vehicles registered in
1990. According to a study on fleet consumption in 2010, 47. The voluntary agreement provided that in 2003 the
this halving could be achieved by saving some 60 per situation would be reviewed as regards setting a more am-
cent through purely technological measures and 40 per bitious CO2 reduction target of 120 g CO2/km by 2012. In
cent through a shift in market segments (passenger cars, 2003, therefore, a study commissioned by the ACEA was
off-road vehicles, vans, etc.) (MEHLIN et al., 2002). published which looked at the impacts of a more ambi-
Other studies show that, using available technology, aver- tious CO2 reduction target of 120 g CO2/km by 2012 (Ar-
age fuel consumption could be reduced by between 40 thur D. Little, 2003). The study showed that a further
and 50 per cent between the mid-1990s and 2010 (KEAY- 20 g CO2/km reduction across the entire vehicle fleet to
BRIGHT, 2000). achieve 120 g CO2/km emissions would incur average ad-
ditional costs of €4,000 per vehicle. ACEA fears that ad-
The ACEA's voluntary agreement target lies somewhere
ditional per vehicle costs of that magnitude would lead to
in the range of the general consumption trends in the
significant deterioration in European carmakers' competi-
VDA fleet during the 1990s (ZERLE, 2004, p. 76 ff). It
tiveness and thus to the loss of jobs and factory closures.
must be assumed, therefore, that the achieved reduction
was sparked by existing incentives and that self-regula- The German Advisory Council on the Environment be-
tion effected no further reduction in fuel consumption. lieves that the obstacles to further CO2 reduction cited by
This means the voluntary agreement target set in 1998 ACEA are inconclusive. The threat of competitive disad-
was in the business-as-usual range. Even so, its attain- vantage brought about by more expensive vehicles with
ment is by no means guaranteed. Achievement of the tar- lower CO2 emissions and thus lower fuel consumption
get is obstructed by recent trends towards vehicles with levels would appear negligible for two main reasons.
bigger engines and high-performance auxiliary equip- Firstly, as a result of their commitments, neither JAMA
ment, which increase both vehicle weight and fuel con- nor KAMA have any competitive advantage in the Euro-
sumption (ACEA and the Commission Services, 2003, pean market. In other markets such as the US, the engine
p. 6; Arthur D. Little, 2003, see also Para. 12). While the capacities of the vehicles on sale are tailored to local de-
ACEA itself acknowledges that technology is available to mand. If the ACEA still sees a risk of unfair advantage
reduce CO2, it points to the fact that carmakers are trying being gained by specific carmakers engaging in free-rider
to serve the demand for bigger vehicles with higher fuel tactics, then it should logically distance itself from the
consumption. The number of European carmakers who voluntary agreement and call instead for binding rules
produce high-consumption sport utility vehicles (SUVs) that apply to all carmakers. Secondly, in times of continu-
rose from two in 1995 to seven in 2004 (KÅGESON, ously high fuel prices, fuel-efficient vehicles with low
2005, p. 20 f). The underlying error in the voluntary CO2 emissions actually have a competitive advantage
agreement structure is that the very organisation required over high consumption vehicles.
to fulfil the agreement – the ACEA – has only limited in-
fluence on how the 140 g CO2/km target is achieved The calculations used in the Arthur D. Little (2003) study,
(ZERLE, 2004, p. 81 f). Firstly, the ACEA cannot dictate which identified additional average costs of €4,000 per
CO2 emissions levels for vehicles produced by individual vehicle to achieve the 120 g CO2/km target, assumed
manufacturers. Secondly, it is ultimately the consumer abatement costs of initially €50/t CO2 rising to €900/t
who decides the average CO2 output for passenger cars CO2. In the joint study conducted by EUCAR (European
sold in the EU. Thus, compliance with the standards for Council for Automotive Research and Development),
passenger cars falls to the consumer – whereas the stand- CONCAWE (Conservation of Clear Air and Water in
ards actually target the ACEA by virtue of its commit- Western Europe) and the Joint Research Centre of the EU
ments under the voluntary agreement. Even if carmakers Commission, abatement costs of between €200/t CO2 and
29
€400/t CO2 were identified for conventional technologies scheme would ensure more accurate achievement of the
(CONCAWE et al., 2004). Thus, the additional costs emissions target proposed for road transport. There
probably lie far below the €4,000 per vehicle cited by would, however, be no direct incentive for carmakers to
ACEA. To allow for these differing abatement costs, improve energy efficiency in their vehicles. All that
including from an efficiency standpoint compared with would happen is that, as with the ecotax system, higher
other CO2-emitting sectors, CO2 emissions from fuel prices would entice car owners to switch to low-con-
motorised personal transport should be regulated in a uni- sumption vehicles – although an indirect impact of this
form, Europe-wide CO2 emissions trading scheme nature would not provide sufficient incentive for car-
(MICHAELIS, 2004). makers to enhance energy efficiency in the vehicles they
produce (HOHENSTEIN et al., 2002, p. 31; DEUBER,
4.2 Emissions Trading 2002, p. 53). This is due both to the comparably low price
elasticity in fuel sales (see Para. 38 f) and the fact that
48. Given that road transport causes more than 20 per specific fuel consumption is only one of many factors that
cent of CO2 emissions in the European Union and has the influence consumers' purchasing decisions. A number of
greatest growth rates among all emitting sectors (EU these other factors, like safety and prestige, actually make
Commission, 2002b), it would seem wise in terms of both for heavier vehicles and more powerful engines, which in
efficiency and effectiveness to integrate it either directly turn mean higher fuel consumption. This is supported by
or indirectly into emissions trading. Literature published a recent survey conducted by Deutsche Automobil Treu-
since the early 1980s has contained numerous suggestions hand (2004, p. 42) which shows that despite strong in-
along these lines (for an overview see JUNKERN- creases in fuel prices, only 10 per cent of car owners say
HEINRICH, 1998) which can be broken down into three their next car will have a smaller engine while 29 per cent
categories: systems targeting car owners, the fuel trade say they want a more powerful car next time around. In
and carmakers. consequence, an emissions trading scheme that takes a
49. An emissions trading scheme that targets car owners fuel-based approach would not be sufficient to fully ex-
directly would award them an annual fuel contingent or ploit the potential for enhanced energy efficiency offered
CO2 emission allowance and permit them to freely trade by available vehicle technology. Compared with the ex-
their excess quantities. However, with around 30 million isting ecotax system, a fuel-based emissions trading
car owners in Germany, considerable transaction costs scheme would offer no real advantage aside from target
would be incurred (DEUBER, 2002, p. 53; KNIESTEDT, accuracy.
1999, p. 156 ff) and finding the right allocation format 52. A third possibility for emissions trading in the trans-
would prove highly difficult. Furthermore, detractors port sector, and one the Dutch environment ministry re-
would find it easy to discredit the scheme by drawing cently brought into the political debate at EU level (Ends
similarities with war-time rationing, which would Daily, 17.09.2004), involves targeting carmakers. The
severely affect public acceptance. Emissions trading 'carmaker approach' entails approving CO2 emissions for
schemes that directly target car owners are therefore ex- vehicles placed on the EU market within a given trading
cluded from the subsequent appraisal. period. This would guarantee a prescribed percentage re-
50. The choice between the two remaining approaches duction in aggregate annual fleet emissions across all car-
– the fuel trade and carmakers – must first consider that makers – and the tradability of emissions rights would
CO2 emissions from road transport are largely dependent ensure that emissions and consumption are cut by those
on two factors: driving habits and the energy efficiency of carmakers who can effect a reduction at the lowest cost.
the vehicles in use. Any strategy to reduce CO2 emissions
In contrast to the fuel-based approach outlined above, the
in road transport should ideally take account of both fac-
carmaker approach is not an alternative but rather a sup-
tors to achieve a holistic management approach. It is thus
plement to the ecotax system. In a combination of the two
necessary to use a combination of instruments that influ-
instruments, the ecotax would directly target drivers and
ence the behaviour of car users and that of carmakers.
influence their driving habits, while the emissions trading
51. An emissions trading scheme that targets the first scheme would target carmakers and influence specific
tier of the fuel market (fuel-based approach), as recently fuel consumption or specific CO2 emissions from vehi-
recommended by BERGMANN et al. (2005), would be cles. Given its broad effectiveness, the German Advisory
beneficial in terms of transaction costs but would only re- Council on the Environment sees this combination of in-
sult in higher fuel prices because the costs would be struments as preferable to replacing (or supplementing)
passed on to the consumer (car owners). Policymakers the ecotax system with an emissions trading scheme
could neither justify dual taxation on fuel that results along the lines of the fuel-based approach. The Council is
from ecotax legislation on the one hand and an emissions aware, however, that when matched against the fuel-
trading scheme on the other, nor would it be accepted by based approach, the carmaker approach provides for less
the consumer. An emissions trading scheme that targets accurate target achievement in terms of the actual emis-
the fuel trade would not, therefore, supplement ecotax sions produced (Para. 58) and could result in higher trans-
levied on fuel but actually replace it – although its impact action costs. These disadvantages would appear acceptable,
would be no greater than that already achieved with eco- however, given that the carmaker approach would
tax. The only benefit compared with the existing ecotax provide direct incentives to develop low-consumption
system would be that a fuel-based emissions trading cars and thus offer greater innovative potential, while the
30
fuel-based approach would merely replicate the effects base on which to build future activities (particularly
achieved with the existing ecotax system. Added to this is DEUBER, 2002; HOHENSTEIN et al., 2002;
the fact that the criterion of accuracy in target attainment KNIESTEDT, 1999). The main issues involved relate to
should not be over-valued, especially in the light of ex- the type of vehicles to be included in the emissions trad-
perience with EU-wide emissions trading between large ing scheme, the choice of measurement base, setting fleet
emitters in the stationary sector (SRU, 2004). Accurate emissions standards for individual carmakers (including
achievement of an emissions target that was anyway set the tightening of those standards over time), the pos-
in a somewhat questionable manner at policy level can sibility of linking up with sectoralised emissions trading
hardly be considered as the key criterion for selection of between large stationary emitters under the EU directive,
an environmental policy instrument. and interactions with other environmental policy instru-
ments. Given the experience gained in implementing the
53. Compared with the car industry's existing voluntary EU directive on emissions trading, attention must also be
agreement, an emissions trading scheme that targets CO2 paid to whether such a system is politically feasible.
emissions from cars has two key advantages when it
comes to environmental effectiveness and economic effi-
ciency: Vehicle types
– As outlined in Section 4.1, the car industry's commit- 56. With regard to vehicle types, it must be decided
ments under the voluntary agreement are linked to nu- whether the emissions trading scheme should cover not
merous clauses and conditions so that a softening or just passenger cars but also commercial vehicles. Other
withdrawal of the agreed targets is certainly possible. than in the passenger car sector, the purchase of commer-
In contrast, the strict quantity limits laid down in an cial vehicles is dominated by economic considerations
emissions trading scheme would provide more trans- such as fuel consumption and the availability of a
parency and greater stability in the longer term, and Europe-wide service network. It can thus be assumed that
thus foster innovation among the carmakers involved. rising fuel prices alone will trigger a significant response
towards greater energy efficiency in the commercial ve-
– Section 4.1 also points out that under the current vol- hicle sector (e.g. ALBRECHT, 2000, p. 397). Also, the
untary agreement, distribution of the burden among commercial vehicle sector has only limited room for im-
individual carmakers goes largely unaddressed. This proved energy efficiency when compared to the passen-
provides little hope of the agreement being an efficient ger car sector. This is largely due to the fact that, other
solution. By way of contrast, emissions trading would than with passenger cars, reduced vehicle weight effects
ensure that the required reduction in specific CO2 only minimal savings because the weight of the freight to
emissions is distributed across the various carmakers be transported is the dominant factor (ALBRECHT, 2000,
in such a way as to minimise the costs overall. p. 397). The scope for improved energy efficiency in
road-freight transport as reported in the literature
54. Apart from obtaining emissions credits, the car in-
(LEONARDI et al., 2004) relates not to consumption
dustry can essentially choose between three main adapta-
characteristics in commercial vehicles but to improve-
tion strategies that can be used either individually or in
ments in logistics. It would thus appear appropriate, for
combination (with regard to the following, see DEUBER,
purely practical reasons, to initially restrict emissions
2002, p. 84 ff): development of new technologies to re-
trading to passenger cars. The inclusion of commercial ve-
duce specific CO2 emissions, restructuring of available
hicles should be considered in the longer term, however.
product ranges towards smaller and thus low-emission
vehicles (downsizing), and marketing activities to pro-
mote the sale of such low-emission vehicles. Contrary to Choice of measurement base
what might be assumed at first glance, the latter of these
three strategies actually promises greater impact over 57. The types of emissions trading schemes reported in
time. This is because current consumer attitudes towards the literature provide for a baseline and credit system in
motorised personal transport are largely shaped by car- which the various carmakers are required to meet a fleet
makers' marketing strategies. If carmakers were to change emissions standard (derived from historical data) for CO2
their strategies to place greater importance on environ- emissions from vehicles placed on the EU market within
mental needs they could, especially when combined with a given trading period. If carmakers undercut their fleet
the introduction of speed limits on German motorways as emissions standard, they receive emissions credits to
called for by the German Advisory Council on the Envi- match the remaining amount. If carmakers exceed their
ronment (see SRU, 2005, Section 9.3), make a significant standards, they must obtain emissions allowances to co-
contribution towards discouraging the obsession with ver the excess. Either the specific or (estimated) absolute
horsepower so predominant among sections of the popu- CO2 emissions from the vehicles could serve as the
lation. measurement base. In the first case, a specific g CO2/km
target is set which average emissions of all vehicles
55. A large number of detail issues would need to be placed on the market within the trading period must com-
addressed before introducing an emissions trading ply with. If this average target is undercut, the CO2 sav-
scheme that targets CO2 emissions from the car industry's ings achieved are calculated based on estimated total mile-
fleet. Nevertheless, the groundwork already done – which age and the carmaker is then allocated emissions credits
in some areas is already substantial – can be used as a in the respective amount. If they exceed the threshold,
31
carmakers must obtain emission allowances to make up 59. One particular problem in the choice of measure-
the excess. The critical factor in this approach is that it al- ment base that had not been considered in the ground-
lows no restriction to be placed on absolute emission work already done (DEUBER, 2002; HOHENSTEIN
quantities which means that, if the number of people with et al., 2002; KNIESTEDT, 1999) involves the treatment
cars or using cars increases, absolute CO2 emissions of alternative engine types in which, other than with con-
could rise despite specific emissions being reduced and ventional petrol and diesel engines, CO2 emissions are
the overall distance travelled remaining constant. This either wholly or partly relocated to upstream production
could be counteracted by the fact that passenger car mar- phases. This means vehicles that are fuelled by natural
kets in Germany and similar EU countries are more or gas or run on electric motors and, in the longer term,
less saturated. This does not apply to the EU as a whole, those powered by a combination of hydrogen and fuel cell
however, as there is still probably significant pent-up de- technology. If the threshold for such vehicles was based
mand both in the new EU Member States and the acces- solely on emissions from the engine it would pose an un-
sion states. fair advantage and, to a certain degree, would hinder
further development of conventional petrol and diesel en-
58. Given the problems outlined above, the German Ad- gines. To prevent any distortion of this kind, it would ap-
visory Council on the Environment favours a system in pear appropriate for targets to be set by adding a fixed ad-
which absolute CO2 emissions serve as the measurement ditional amount to the CO2 emissions put out by the
basis. In this case, individual carmakers would be told engine itself. The fixed additional amount to be applied in
when receiving their fleet emissions standards what quan- each case would need to be further defined in environ-
tities of CO2 the vehicles they place on the EU market mental impact assessments or well-to-tank analyses (see
within the trading period may emit during their projected SRU, 2005, Section 7.4).
lifecycle. To calculate the CO2 emissions put out by a ve-
hicle during its lifecycle, the respective specific g CO2/
km emissions target is multiplied by the estimated total Setting fleet emissions standards
mileage. DEUBER (2002) suggests basing the calculation 60. A further choice involves the basis on which to set
on a fixed lifetime mileage of 200,000 km. To minimise fleet emissions standards for individual carmakers. This
any deviations between CO2 emissions calculated in this resembles the problem of initial free allocation under a
way and actual CO2 emissions during a vehicle's lifecy- classic trade regime (cap and trade) in which emitters
cle, it would make sense to establish different size classes must hold appropriate emissions permits for each type of
with assumed overall mileage because bigger-engined ve- pollutant emitted (HEISTER et al., 1990, p. 104 ff). As
hicles achieve significantly higher mileage during their with such a system, a similar problem emerges on the
lifecycle than those with smaller engines. A distinction question as to what fleet emission standards to allocate to
would also need to be made between vehicles with petrol carmakers as a no-charge baseline. To prevent adjustment
engines and those that run on diesel. problems and rule out the possibility of manipulation
when introducing the system of fleet emissions, and to
When measuring specific emissions, attention must be
take account of potential annual fluctuations in product
paid to the fact that both fuel consumption in and CO2
ranges and sales, standards should be based on the aver-
emissions from passenger cars are currently measured un-
age fleet emissions from vehicles placed on the market in
der EU Directive 93/116/EEC by a method that does not
the last three years prior to the system being introduced
take account of the impacts of high-performance auxiliary
(similarly KNIESTEDT, 1999, p. 179). In the case of new
equipment (e.g. air conditioning) and thus results in spe-
carmakers entering the market for whom no historical
cific CO2 emissions being underestimated. The transac-
data is available, fleet emissions standards would need to
tion costs involved in switching to more realistic measur-
be based on 'available technology' (DEUBER, 2002,
ing requirements cannot, however, be apportioned to the
p. 74).
proposed emissions trading scheme because, for the rea-
sons outlined above, current measurement requirements Once the system is in place, fleet emissions standards can
are anyway in urgent need of revision. be reduced annually by a given percentage and over a pre-
scribed timeline. A percentage reduction would mean car-
If absolute CO2 emissions are taken as the basis in the makers who produce larger vehicles must go to greater
manner outlined above, the result would be that car- lengths to reduce emissions in absolute terms than those
makers who increase their sales must compensate for the who produce smaller vehicles. This would appear justi-
increase either through additional reductions in specific fied, however, given that larger vehicles offer the greatest
CO2 emissions or by buying extra emission allowances. reduction potential (JORDAN-JOERGENSEN et al.,
This could indirectly restrict passenger car sales overall 2002, p. 62).
and could be problematical given the economic impor-
tance of this sector. As will be explained below The percentage by which fleet emissions standards are re-
(Para. 61), however, even with a system based on abso- duced each year should be tangibly above the business-
lute CO2 emissions, a restrictive effect on overall passen- as-usual reduction rate that results from the car industry's
ger car sales can be avoided if emissions trading between current commitments under the voluntary agreement. In
carmakers is linked to the sectoralised emissions trading light of the reduction potentials outlined in Section 3.1,
scheme between large stationary emitters under the EU an annual reduction of 6 per cent would appear both ap-
directive. propriate and acceptable. Assuming that vehicle sales re-
32
main stable, an annual six per cent reduction would mean vehicle taxation system over to a CO2-focused tax base
that the average specific CO2 emissions from the entire and additional phased increases in the ecotax levied on
fleet placed on the market in a given trading year must be fuels. A range of interactions can be expected which will
reduced to around 100 g CO2/km by 2012. enhance the effectiveness of this instrument mix.
Of particular importance is the potential rebound effect
Linking to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme
from increased energy efficiency in vehicles. Where the
61. Linking the two systems would allow free transfer restriction of fleet emissions results in a drop in specific
of emission allowances between large stationary emitters CO2 emissions from cars placed on the market, car users
participating in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and would have the incentive to travel greater distances be-
carmakers. If the marginal costs of CO2 reduction in the cause, assuming constant fuel prices, the price of fuel per
car industry were higher than those in the electricity sec- kilometre would be reduced. With (long term) price elas-
tor, emission allowances could be transferred from large ticity of –0.6 (see Para. 38), a ten per cent increase in en-
stationary emitters to carmakers. This would balance the ergy efficiency would lead to a six per cent increase in
marginal abatement costs under the two trading systems mileage. To prevent this rebound effect, the emissions
and so achieve the required emissions reduction at mini- trading system outlined earlier must be supported by ad-
mal cost. This cross-sectoral optimisation of reduction ef- ditional phased increases in fuel tax as part of ecotax re-
fort would lessen the burden both on market participants forms. To prevent a distortion of competition in the
and on the economy without requiring concessions on the Single Market, such increases should be implemented not
desired reduction target (HOHENSTEIN et al., 2002, at national but at European level (see SRU, 2005,
p. 107). Section 9.3.1).
An additional, although less significant, advantage to be Consideration must also be given to the fact that energy
had from linking the two emissions trading systems is efficiency in the vehicles placed on the market is not only
that, due to the high degree of concentration in the car in- determined by supply but also by demand. Thus, all ef-
dustry (WEISS, 2000), isolated emissions trading between forts within the car industry to produce low-CO2 vehicles
carmakers alone would make for a comparably 'narrow' would be negated if consumers were not prepared to buy
market and thus give rise to the (albeit remote) danger
them. Assuming that costs are passed on in full, emis-
that individual carmakers might be prompted to engage in
sions trading would tend to result in vehicles with high
strategic hamstering of emission allowances. If this were
CO2 emissions becoming more expensive, but this would
to happen, the reduction target would still be achieved but
not be sufficient in itself to spark the required demand re-
the efficiency of the system would be lost. Linking the
two emissions trading systems would make for a suffi- sponse from consumers (see box below for sample cal-
ciently bigger emission allowances market and dispense culation). For this reason, it would appear sensible to
with any problems as regards potential market dominance support sales of low-CO2 vehicles with demand-side
by individual players. measures. As outlined earlier, the opportunities for meas-
ures that involve increased fuel prices are extremely lim-
62. Linking the two emissions trading systems also has ited. Thus, an emissions trading scheme that targets car-
disadvantages, particularly as regards accurate achieve- makers should be supported by a CO2-based vehicle
ment of the emissions target. CO2 emissions from the re- taxation system as addressed in more detail in the follow-
spective vehicle fleets can only be projected based on the ing section.
levels of specific emissions and expected overall mileage
during vehicle lifecycles. There thus appears an urgent
need not, as recommended in the literature, to base the
calculation on a fixed total mileage across all vehicle Sample Calculation
groups but, as recommended earlier in this report, to dis- Costs Incurred by a Carmaker in Emissions Trading
tinguish between size classes and other appropriate ve-
hicle characteristics. Further, the risk of potential devia- The calculation is based on the assumption that to com-
tions from the target should not be overestimated because ply with fleet emissions standards, a carmaker must
it can be assumed that in practice, the projected emissions achieve average specific emissions of 120 g CO2/km
will in some cases be either above and or below actual across all vehicles it places on the market. This would
CO2 emissions. This means that up to a certain level the mean that the carmaker would have a CO2 deficit of 24 t
deviations will cancel each other out. The remaining neg- CO2 per unit sold for large-engined vehicles in the upper
ligible deviations from target would appear acceptable price segment with specific emissions of 240 g CO2/km
given the advantages to be gained from linking the two and an assumed overall mileage of 200,000 km. Where
emissions trading systems. the deficit cannot be balanced by another vehicle in the
product range, the carmaker must purchase emission al-
lowances to cover the difference. At an estimated emis-
Interaction with other instruments sions permit price of around €8/t CO2, this results in ad-
63. As already emphasised, the emissions trading sys- ditional costs per vehicle of about €212. In the upper
tem for CO2 emissions from cars should be embedded in a price segment, passing on those costs would not signifi-
mix of economic instruments that include changing the cantly affect demand.
33
Political acceptability Due to the many other factors involved, this trend cannot
be apportioned to vehicle taxation alone. Nevertheless, it
64. As was made clear by the implementation of the EU
provides an impressive illustration of the potential that
Emissions Trading Scheme and particularly the issues
vehicle taxation harbours for independent control – po-
surrounding the National Allocation Plan (SRU, 2004),
emissions trading schemes by virtue of their complexity tential that should continue to be tapped in future. Con-
run the risk of becoming so disfigured during the policy- siderations along the lines of abolishing vehicle taxation
making process that, in the end, their effectiveness is altogether and transferring it to tax levied on petroleum
called into question. The German Advisory Council on products, as called for by the German Federal Environ-
the Environment is, of course, aware that the emissions ment Ministry (BMU, 2003b), are therefore misguided
trading model described above runs the same risk. How- despite the associated simplification in administration.
ever, complex problems sometimes call for complex an- Other than with fuel tax, vehicle tax allows for differen-
swers, and these should not be blocked from the outset tiation according to technical characteristics of the vehi-
with an eye to the policymaking process. Also, the dis- cles concerned and for a progressive tax rate structure
cussion contained in the previous section makes it very (JORDAN-JOERGENSEN et al., 2002, p. 113). It is even
clear that a reduction in transport-related CO2 emissions possible to levy vehicle tax in advance over a substantial
to the required level is hardly possible without measures time frame, thus enhancing its control effect even further
that target the car industry. Unless, of course, a huge in- (Para. 69). Given these options, vehicle taxation offers
crease in real fuel prices – which have to date remained control potential that extends beyond that of fuel taxation
largely stable – is seen as a realistic alternative (SRU, and should not be given up without good reason. In any
2005, Section 3.2.1). Because, as already outlined, the case, transferring vehicle tax to fuel tax would signifi-
European car industry's voluntary agreement is not effec- cantly distort the fiscal balance between the federal and
tive, the only alternative to an emissions trading scheme Länder governments because vehicle tax is picked up by
is to prescribe binding fleet consumption standards like the Länder while fuel tax goes into the federal govern-
those introduced for climate protection purposes in Japan ment's budget.
and California. The top runner approach in Japan pre-
scribes fleet consumption standards for passenger cars in 66. In a European comparison, significant differences
differing weight classes; these are based on the most en- are evident in how passenger cars are taxed. The EU
ergy efficient vehicle in each of the weight classes and Commission sees a need for harmonisation (see
must be achieved by 2010 (see ECCJ, undated). The ap- KUHFELD and KUNERT, 2002). Following the EU
proach also sparks competitive innovation among car- Commission's Communication of September 2002 on
makers. However, compared with emissions trading as Taxation of Passenger Cars in the European Union (EU
outlined above, the less-flexible top runner approach in- Commission, 2002c), harmonisation should also be used
volves considerably higher costs, both for businesses and under the Community Strategy to Reduce CO2 Emissions
for national economies. In particular, it does not allow from Passenger Cars (EU Commission, 1995) to stand-
carmakers to comply, at least in part, with prescribed ardise the basis on which national vehicle tax is levied
emissions standards by purchasing emission allowances and place the focus on specific CO2 emissions.
from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme for large station-
ary emitters. The political acceptability of the emissions For Germany, this would mean that vehicle tax would no
trading model is thus primarily dependent on how well its longer be based on engine capacity but on specific CO2
benefits compared with the only remaining alternative of emissions. Provided that vehicle tax can also be based on
non-tradable standards are communicated to the car in- additional pollutants in the future, this approach is to be
dustry. welcomed in principle. As shown elsewhere in this report,
it cannot be assumed that fuel prices alone will provide
consumers with sufficient incentive to switch to more
4.3 CO2-Based Vehicle Taxation
fuel-efficient vehicles.
65. In the German government's coalition agreement for
the electoral period 2002–2006, the governing parties 67. One possible argument against CO2-based vehicle
agreed to further environmental reforms of vehicle taxa- tax is that the current engine capacity-based system al-
tion and to using CO2 emissions as the basis for those re- ready takes adequate account of CO2 emissions. This is
forms. The existing vehicle tax was restructured on 1 July not the case, however, because specific fuel consumption
1997 to be based on vehicle emissions and has since been and thus CO2 emissions from vehicles are not only deter-
adjusted a number of times to accommodate technologi- mined by engine capacity but to a large extent by engine
cal advancements. This has resulted in a continuous in- technology and fuel type, by vehicle weight and by roll-
crease in the share of low-emission passenger cars among ing and air resistance (see Section 3). Specific CO2 emis-
new registrations. In 2001, more than 90 per cent of sions can thus differ by as much as 50 per cent in vehicles
newly registered passenger cars complied with the Euro 3 with the same engine capacity (RAUH et al., 2001, p. 33).
and Euro 4 standards; by the 1 January 2002 deadline, For this reason, a simulation study conducted by the Ges-
some 21.9 per cent of vehicles in the entire vehicle fleet ellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (2004)
complied with the Euro 3/D3 standards and 9.6 per cent found that a restructuring of the vehicle taxation system
with the more stringent Euro 4 standard (KBA, 2003, would result in greater demand for vehicles with lower
2002). average fuel consumption.
34
68. To enhance the control effect of CO2-based vehicle based on CO2 emissions and distinguishes between petrol
tax in reforms calculated to have no net impact on total and diesel fuels (SRU, 2005, Section 9.3.1).
tax revenue, the German Advisory Council on the Envi-
72. As outlined earlier, to continue to provide an incen-
ronment recommends use of a progressively increasing
tive to reduce other harmful emissions, it should still be
tax rate (JORDAN-JOERGENSEN et al., 2002, p. 86 f).
possible even after a CO2-based vehicle tax system has
The resulting price signal could thus be made appreciably
been put in place to set the tax rate in line with other
stronger for vehicles with big engines without burdening
emissions factors independent of the respective CO2
small or medium-sized vehicles to any great extent; this
emission levels. With regard to motorcycles, the Council
would significantly increase acceptance of a CO2-based
recommends using such flexibility to introduce an addi-
vehicle tax system. This type of progressive approach can
tional distinction according to a vehicle's noise emissions.
also be justified with reference to the fact that large-
Motorcycle inspections would then have to ensure, how-
engined vehicles usually achieve far greater mileage – an
ever, that the vehicle's noise emissions are not manipu-
aspect that would be ignored with a linear tax increase.
lated after the fact.
One argument that might be brought against a progres-
sively increasing tax rate is that company cars would be 5 Recommendations
over-burdened because they usually have much bigger
engines than private vehicles (JORDAN-JOERGENSEN 73. With improved technology for conventional engines
et al., 2002, p. 48). What must be considered, however, is it is already possible to reduce current average fuel con-
that company cars – which are already subject to lower sumption by over 40 per cent for newly registered passen-
tax rates upon purchase – are usually sold on to the pri- ger cars with petrol engines and by up to 40 per cent for
vate sector after a period of between two and four years. those with diesel engines. This would cut average specific
This means that in the medium-term, business purchasing CO2 emissions from newly registered passenger cars to
decisions have a significant impact on the composition of around 100 g/km. The main technical options include im-
the private vehicle fleet. A correspondingly strong control proved engine technology, engine performance within an
effect is thus needed in the company car sector. optimal range through downsizing and improved gearbox
spacing, optimal energy management, hybridisation, and
69. The control effect of CO2-based vehicle tax could be reduced vehicle weight and rolling resistance. Measures
further enhanced by making vehicle tax payable for sev- to change both consumer behaviour and driving habits
eral years in advance at the time a new vehicle is regis- also play a key role.
tered. Setting the actual prepayment period, however, in-
volves a target-setting conflict. The longer the period, the Although alternative fuels like biomass and hydrogen are
stronger the price signal and so the lower the level of ac- expected to offer significant scope for reductions, at least
ceptance by the drivers affected. Also, a longer prepay- in the longer term, their potential remains limited for the
ment period would make it difficult for people in lower time being and their abatement costs are relatively high.
income groups to switch to a new (usually more fuel-effi- The German Advisory Council on the Environment thus
cient) vehicle unless carmakers aligned their financing considers that the priority should be on further exploiting
terms to the new conditions. The German Advisory the technological potential to reduce CO2 emissions from
Council on the Environment thus recommends striking vehicles with conventional engines. As an interim meas-
the happy medium, making vehicle tax payable in ad- ure, average specific CO2 emissions from newly regis-
vance for the first four years in which a new vehicle is tered passenger vehicles could be reduced by introducing
used. From the fifth year, vehicle tax would be levied an- an emissions trading scheme that requires carmakers to
nually as is currently the case. If a vehicle is taken off the cut CO2 emissions to 100 g CO2/km by 2012; additional,
road permanently before the end of the four-year period, longer-term targets could be set to achieve even greater
the vehicle owner would receive a tax refund in the re- reductions. It is foreseeable that even in the medium run,
spective amount. consumption-optimised vehicles with combustion en-
gines will remain both cheaper than fuel cell vehicles and
70. The German Advisory Council on the Environment at least level with them in environmental terms. At
also recommends that, as a supporting measure, the Ordi- present, the use of fuel cells for energy in the vehicle sec-
nance on Affixing Fuel Consumption Labels to Passenger tor is neither technologically nor economically ready for
Cars (PKW-EnVKV, Federal Gazette 2004 Part I, the market.
p. 1037) be amended to include a provision whereby car
74. While the ACEA's commitments under the volun-
suppliers must not only indicate fuel consumption and
CO2 emissions, but also the applicable vehicle tax rate. tary agreement represent an environmental advance in
principle, they leave much to be desired in some respects.
71. Restructuring the current engine capacity-based ve- In particular, the targets fall far short of what is techni-
hicle taxation system to one that focuses on CO2 emis- cally possible. One problem as regards self-regulation at
sions would tend to give diesel vehicles an advantage due industry association level involves the association's in-
to their lower fuel consumption and thus lower emission ability to place its members under obligation. Up to now,
levels. This would result in an increased number of diesel there has been no regulatory framework to allow sanc-
vehicles in the vehicle fleet overall. In this regard, the tions to be put in place if targets are not met. This violates
German Advisory Council on the Environment sees a the EU Commission's guidelines for the voluntary agree-
need to reiterate its call for an ecotax structure that is ments on the one hand, while on the other the car industry
35
has made its commitments subject to a range of condi- tionally ensure cross-sectoral optimisation of prevention
tions that make unilateral modification or even termina- measures.
tion of the agreement a possibility. Nor is there any ex-
76. An emissions trading system that focuses on fleet
plicit distribution of the burden among individual
emissions should be supported by demand-side measures,
carmakers, which makes it impossible to efficiently allo-
because all efforts made by the car industry to provide
cate individual reductions so as to achieve the overall tar-
low-CO2 vehicles would be in vain if consumers were not
gets.
prepared to actually buy them. Simply increasing fuel
While these deficits could be partly remedied through prices would not provide the necessary incentive due to
modification, some of the problems cannot be resolved the low price elasticity of demand. Added to this is the
because they are inherent in the voluntary agreement it- fact that when it comes to passenger cars, consumers' pur-
self. The voluntary agreement should not, therefore, be chasing decisions are not based on fuel consumption
renewed at the end of its current term in 2008. Rather, an alone, but on a range of factors, some of which actually
EU-wide emissions trading system for carmakers should lead to greater vehicle weight, more powerful engines and
be introduced. As an alternative, maximum consumption higher fuel consumption. For this reason – as also pointed
standards could be considered such as those introduced out by the EU Commission – a reform of the vehicle taxa-
for climate protection purposes in Japan and California. tion structure is recommended to improve take-up of low-
CO2 vehicles.
75. To integrate the transport sector into the emissions
trading scheme, an approach should be chosen that sets The restructuring of vehicle taxation in 1997 to a system
out for each individual carmaker the levels of CO2 al- based, at least in part, on vehicle emissions resulted in
lowed during the entire lifecycles of vehicles placed on continuous growth in the number of low-emission passen-
the market in each trading period. If a carmaker undercuts ger cars on the roads. This trend shows that vehicle tax
its fleet emissions standard, it can sell its spare or excess offers a high degree of control potential compared with
emission allowances. If it exceeds it, it must purchase ad- fuel tax – this potential should continue to be tapped in
ditional emission allowances in the respective amount. In future. Transferring vehicle tax to fuel tax would not be
this way, the aggregate annual fleet emissions across all the right approach. Instead, and in line with the EU Com-
carmakers could be reduced by a prescribed percentage, mission's proposals, engine capacity-based vehicle tax
while tradability of emission allowances would ensure should be restructured to be based on specific CO2 emis-
that both emissions and consumption are reduced by sions while retaining the existing distinction between
those carmakers who can achieve the reductions at the emissions classes. To further enhance the control effect of
lowest cost. Compared with the current voluntary agree- vehicle tax, it should be levied in advance for a period of
ment, this would not only mean increased efficiency but four years at the time a new vehicle is registered and be
would make for more transparency and a more stable op- progressively increased thereafter. Vehicle taxation in this
erating environment over time. It would also foster inno- form would send out a much stronger price signal, partic-
vation on the part of the carmakers involved. Linking the ularly as regards big-engined vehicles, without burdening
system to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme would addi- small or middle-class vehicles to any great extent.
36
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42
Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Charter Establishing an Advisory Council on the Environment at the Ministry of the Environment,
Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
1 March 2005
The task with which the Advisory Council on the Envi- (2) The members of the Council may give written notice
ronment is charged shall be to describe the current envi- to resign from the Council to the Federal Ministry of the
ronmental situation and environmental trends, and to Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety at
point out environmentally related problems and suggest any time.
possible ways and means of preventing or correcting
them. (3) Should a member of the Council resign before serving
the full four-year period, a new member shall be ap-
Article 4 pointed for the remaining period. Reappointment shall be
possible.
The Advisory Council on the Environment is charged ex-
clusively with the mission stated in this charter and may Article 9
determine its activities independently.
(1) The Advisory Council on the Environment shall elect,
Article 5 by secret ballot, a chairperson who shall serve for a pe-
The Advisory Council on the Environment shall provide riod of four years. Re-election shall be possible.
the federal ministries whose area of competence is in- (2) The Advisory Council on the Environment shall set its
volved, or their representatives, the opportunity to com- own agenda, which shall be subject to approval by the
ment on important issues that emerge as a result of the Federal Minister of the Environment, Nature Conserva-
Council's performing its task, and to do so before the tion and Nuclear Safety.
Council publishes it reports on these issues.
Article 6 (3) Should a minority of the members of the Council be
of a different opinion from the majority of the members
The Advisory Council on the Environment may arrange when preparing a report, they are to be given an opportu-
hearings for federal offices and Länder offices concern- nity to express this opinion in the report.
43
Article 10 Ministry of the Interior and the Federal Minister of Fi-
nances.
The Advisory Council on the Environment shall be pro-
vided with a secretariat to assist it in the performance of (2) The financial funding for the Advisory Council on the
its work. Environment shall be provided by the Federal Govern-
ment.
Article 11
Article 13
The members of the Advisory Council on the Environ- To accommodate the new date of submission to the Fed-
ment and its secretariat are sworn to secrecy as concerns eral Government under Article 7 (1), the Federal Ministry
the Council’s advisory activities and any advisory docu- of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
ments that it classifies as confidential, and as concerns Safety may extend the appointments of the Council mem-
any information given to the Council that is classified as bers in office when this Charter enters into force to
confidential. 30 June 2008 without requiring the approval of the Fed-
Article 12 eral Cabinet.
Article 14
(1) The members of the Advisory Council on the Envi-
ronment are to be paid a lump-sum compensation and to The Charter Establishing an Advisory Council on the
be reimbursed for their travel expenses. The amount of Environment at the Federal Ministry of the Environment,
compensation and reimbursement shall be determined by Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (GMBl. 1990,
the Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conser- no. 32, p. 831), issued on 10 August 1990, is superseded
vation and Nuclear Safety, with the consent of the Federal by this charter.
The Federal Minister of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Jürgen Trittin
44
Publications
Reports and statements prepared by the German Advisory Council on the Environment
Environmental Reports and Special Reports published from 2004 onwards can be ordered from bookshops or directly
from Nomos-Verlagsgesellschaft Baden-Baden, Postfach 10 03 10, 76484 Baden-Baden, Germany (www.nomos.de).
Bundestag publications (Bundestagsdrucksachen) are available from Bundesanzeiger Verlagsgesellschaft mbH,
Postfach 100534, 50445 Köln, Germany (www.bundesanzeiger.de).
Most publications from 1998 onwards are available for download in Adobe PDF format on the SRU website
(www.umweltrat.de).
*) = a summary is available in English, **) = a summary is available in French
45
Allgemeine ökologische Umweltbeobachtung *) General Ecological Environmental Monitoring *)
Sondergutachten Special Report
Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 1991, 75 S., kart., Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 1991, 75 pp.,
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 11/8123 also published as parliamentary paper 11/8123
Umweltgutachten 1996 *) Environmental Report 1996 *)
Zur Umsetzung einer dauerhaft umweltgerechten On Implementing sustainable
Entwicklung development
Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 1996, 468 S., Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 1996, 468 pp.,
mit 65-seitiger Beilage, 65 pp. enclosure,
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 13/4108 also published as parliamentary paper 13/4108
Umweltgutachten 1998 *) Environmental Report 1998 *)
Umweltschutz: Erreichtes sichern – Environmental Protection: Securing Achievements –
neue Wege gehen Breaking New Ground
Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 1998, 390 S., Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 1998, 390 pp.,
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 13/10195 also published as parliamentary paper 13/10195
Flächendeckend wirksamer Grundwasserschutz *) Countrywide Groundwater Protection *)
Ein Schritt zur dauerhaft umweltgerechten Towards Sustainable
Entwicklung Development
Sondergutachten Special Report
Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 208 S., Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 208 pp.,
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 13/10196 also published as parliamentary paper 13/10196
Stellungnahme zur Reform der Aussenwirtschafts- Council’s Opinion on Greening Export Credit
förderung *) Guarantees *)
November 1999, verfügbar auf http://www.umweltrat.de November 1999, available at http://www.umweltrat.de
Umweltgutachten 2000 *) Environmental Report 2000 *)
Schritte ins nächste Jahrtausend Steps into the New Millenium
Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 2000, 684 S., Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 2000, 684 pp.,
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 14/3363 also published as parliamentary paper 14/3363
Umweltgutachten 2002 *) Environmental Report 2002 *)
Für eine neue Vorreiterrolle Towards a New Leading Role
Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 2002, 549 S., Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 2000, 549 pp.,
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 14/8792 also published as parliamentary paper 14/8792
Für eine Stärkung und Neuorientierung Towards Strengthening and Reorienting Nature
des Naturschutzes *) and Landscape Conservation *)
Sondergutachten Special Report
Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 2002, 211 S., Stuttgart: Metzler-Poeschel, 2002, 211 pp.,
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 14/9852 also published as parliamentary paper 14/9852
Zur Wirtschaftsverträglichkeit der Reform On the economic impact of the planned reform
der Europäischen Chemikalienpolitik *) of European Chemicals Policy *)
Stellungnahme Statement
Juli 2003, 36 Seiten July 2003, 36 pages
http://www.umweltrat.de/03stellung/downlo03/stellung/ http://www.umweltrat.de/03stellung/downlo03/stellung/
Stellung_Reach_Juli2003.pdf Stellung_Reach_Juli2003_eng.pdf
Zum Konzept der Europäischen Kommission On the European Commission's Concept for a
für eine gemeinsame Meeresumweltschutz- European Strategy for the Protection and
strategie *) Conservation of the Marine Environment *)
Stellungnahme Statement
Februar 2003 February 2003, 13 pages
http://www.umweltrat.de/03stellung/downlo03/stellung/ http://www.umweltrat.de/english/edownloa/statemen/
Stellung_Meeresumweltschutz_Feb2003.pdf Stellung_Protect_Marine_environment_eng.pdf
46
Meeresumweltschutz für Nord- und Marine Environment Protection for the North
Ostsee *) and Baltic Seas *)
Sondergutachten Special Report
Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2004, 480 S. Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2004, 480 pp.
ISBN 3-8329-0630-4 ISBN 3-8329-0943-5
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 15/2626 also published as parliamentary paper 15/2626
Umweltgutachten 2004 *) Environmental Report 2004 *)
Umweltpolitische Handlungsfähigkeit sichern Ensuring Environmental Protection Capacity
Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2004, 670 S. Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2004, 670 pp.
ISBN 3-8329-0942-7 also published as parliamentary paper 15/3600
zugleich Bundestagsdrucksache 15/3600 http://www.umweltrat.de
Rechtsschutz für die Umwelt – Access to Justice in Environmental Matters:
die altruistische Verbandsklage ist The Crucial Role of Legal Standing
unverzichtbar for Non-Governmental Organisations
Stellungnahme Statement
Februar 2005 February 2005
http://www.umweltrat.de/03stellung/downlo03/stellung/ http://www.umweltrat.de/english/edownloa/statemen/
Stellung_Verbandsklage_Februar2005.pdf Stellung_AccesstoJustice_February2005.pdf
Umwelt und Strassenverkehr Environment and Road Transport
Hohe Mobilität – Umweltverträglicher Verkehr *) High Mobility – Environmentally Sound Traffic *)
Sondergutachten Special Report
Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2005, 348 S. Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2005, 348 pp.,
ISBN 3-8329-1447-1 also publishes as parliamentary paper 15/5900
zugleich Bundestagdrucksache 15/5900
Quellenbezogene Maßnahmen zur Minderung Reducing CO2 Emissions
der verkehrsbedingten CO2-Emissionen from Cars
Auszug aus dem Sondergutachten Umwelt und Straßen- Section from the Special Report: Environment and Road
verkehr Transport
September 2005 September 2005
www.umweltrat.de www.umweltrat.de
47
German Advisory Council on
the Environment
German Advisory Council
Prof. Dr. iur. Hans-Joachim Koch (Chairman)
Professor of Public Law at the University of Hamburg
on the Environment
Managing Director of the Department of Public and Constitutional Law
Managing Director of the Research School on Environmental Law
Environment and
Professor and Head
Institute for Water Quality, Resource Management and Waste Management
Vienna University of Technology
Special Report
Key Findings
German Advisory Council on the Environment
Secretariat Phone: +49-30 26 36 96-0
Reichpietschufer 60, 7. OG. Fax: +49-30 26 36 96-109
10785 Berlin E-Mail: [email protected]
Internet: www.Umweltrat.de