How Unemployment Rates Affect The Economy

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How Unemployment Rates Affect The

Economy
By Paul Hudson, Apr 22 2013

After new heights the past few months, the S&P 500 just had the worst
week of the year due to a disappointing jobs report. The Dow Jones
lost more than 40 points, the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% and the S&P 500
fell 0.4% just on Friday. But how/why does the unemployment rate
affect the stock market?

In addition to many different indicators such as GDP, inflation and


interest rates, the unemployment rate of a country is a very common
measure for determining the health of an economy. I am sure that in
your first economics class you learned that unemployment is a key
macroeconomic indicator to determine the health of an economy.

However, there is an ongoing debate regarding the extent to which the


stock market should be guided by unemployment rates. It is a really
simple argument, it should be merely common sense. If there are fewer
people with jobs, then they have less disposable income to spend on
investments.

Economists call unemployment a lagging indicator of the economy, as


the economy usually improves before the unemployment rate starts to
rise again. However, unemployment causes a sort of ripple effect
across the economy.

With one person losing his job, there is one less person that will pay
state and federal income taxes, one less person that will pay additional
sales tax revenue as a laid off worker will instantly cut back on their
non-necessary spending due to less disposable income and worry
about future financial security.

This is an issue, as many countries are facing a big debt crisis that
requires higher tax revenues to prevent a default. If the country’s
government is not financially stable, then the banks and the whole
financial system will experience a decrease in confidence translating
to a downturn in the value of the stock market.

In addition, practically every unemployed citizen in the U.S. will


become eligible for unemployment insurance and will start slowly
sucking money from the economy rather than contributing to it in the
form of taxes, thus increasing the State's deficits and tax revenue.
If the rate continues to rise quarter by quarter, the State will probably
raise taxes in order to compensate for that loss in tax revenue, thus
forcing everyone, both employed and unemployed, to experience a loss
of disposable income. Again that loss in disposable income becomes a
ripple effect, and less money will be spent in the economy, leading to
more people losing their jobs and it starts to become a vicious cycle
unless it is broken by changes in policy or other factors.

In addition there is the issue of the real estate market. Studies have
shown that 45% of mortgages fall into foreclosure as a direct result of
unemployment, thus with a rising rate of unemployment, foreclosure
rates will also rise, leading bankruptcy rates to rise and the home
values to fall. Hopefully the economy will soon get back on track to its
record high.

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