History and Future of Seismology

by
Peter Bormann
(formerly GFZ Potsdam)

TSJ-1

Rebeur-Ehlert pendulum, 1895

KSJ, 1990 | ← 8 cm →| |← 25 cm →|
 1. Earliest reports about earthquakes and their causes

1831 BC First report from China, Province Shantung

→ „Shaking of the Taishan Mountain“

After 780 BC Since Chou Dynasty in N-China very detailed

written reports which allow reconstruction of
damage and → intensity estimates

Old Testamony Book of Zacharia: First correct description of an

observed strike-slip left-lateral motion on the
Dead Sea fault

Thales of Milet Earth swims on the universal ocean.

(624-556 BC) → the motion of its waters causes earthquakes

Anaximenes Rock masses fall into caves or other void

(585-525 BC) spaces of the Earth
→ causes earthquake sounds and shaking
Anaxagoras Fire within the Earth´s interior
(500-428 BC) → primary cause of earthquakes

Aristotel • there is a central fire in the Earth

(384-322 BC)
• subsurface caves and galleries cause fire
as storm clouds cause lightning
• rapidly expanding underground fires produce
rumbling and shaking when meeting obstacles
• Places with bad underground are shaken
more severe since they contain much „wind“
• subsurface and atmospheric processes are
interconnected
• There are vertical and horizontal EQ motions!
Aristotel´s explanation was widely accepted/repeated
for more than 2000 years until the 17th/18th century AD!
Chang Heng First known seismoscope
132 B.C

Model of the Chang Heng

seismoscope in Tangshan,
China (Photo: P. Bormann)

Seneca „Quaestiones naturalis“

(4 BC – 65 AD) Air passing through underground galaries and
void space causes earthquake shaking.
Compressed air may trigger wild subterraneous
storms leading to widepread damage when
they brake through to the Earth´s surface.
2. Descriptions of EQs and their causes in our times (AD)
René Descartes • „Principia Philosophiae“ (1644),
(1596-1650) part 3: „About die Earth“

• Sketches the stages of the development

of the Earth and its various spheres:

E – outer Earth´s crust, consisting of clay, sand, mud, rocks

C – innermost Earth´s crust, consisting of metals; D – water;
F – thinned room, M – dense dark matter, I – sun/light matter

• Sub-soil burning of oil/petroleum is considered to be

the cause for earthquakes and volcanism
Athanasius Kirchner „Mundus Subterraneae“ (1678)
 Japanese medieval folklore
attributes EQs to naughty
jumping monster catfishes

§ Desperate people, frightened by

the Earth´s shaking, try to quiet
two jumping monster catfishes.

A monster catfish, responsible for the

last disaster EQ is punished by the ¨
supreme God for his naughtiness
in front of other catfishes, who were
responsible for earlier EQs, so as to
remind them to stay quiet.

Scientific rational behind it:

Catfishes are extremely sensitive to
changes in the Earth´s electric field
as caused by breaking quartz crystals
in EQ ruptures. Catfish have indeed
been observed to jump out of the water
desperately prior to/during EQs.
1746 J. G. Krüger´s „Geschichte der Erde in den allerältesten Zeiten“

• Exothermal reaction of pyrite (sulphur and iron) with water and

self-ignition of sulphuric and other explosive gases and burnable
materials in the Earth´s may result in huge subsurface fires and
explosions and are the cause for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
faulting, folding and tilting of Earth´s layers, the formation of
fractures and void spaces in the Earth and play a role in the
formation of oceans and continents.

• Volcanoes are very useful, because they allow these explosive

gases and subsurface fires to escape. Thus they reduce the risk
of excessive pressures build-up and prevent even more frequent
catastrophic earthquakes.

1750 Referend Stephen Hales took up these ideas in explaning two EQs
in London:
„Ascending sulphuric gases in the Earth´s interior may catch fire
and thus cause Earth´s lightenings. Their explosion is the direct
cause for earthquakes
1755, November 1st: Lissabon earthquake and tsunami

• Some 50,000 people killed and 15,000 houses damaged

• Up to 30 m high tsunami wave in Tejo river mouth
• Tsunami still noted on shores of England, France and Germany
 The Lissabon EQ triggered a fierce debate about the causes
of EQs between clerics and intellectuals in Europe:

1756 Johann Michael Wagner:

„God determines the essence and controls the effects of nature according
to his intentions. He accompanies the execution of his will with reward
and the neglectance of it with punishment….He directs the natural events
in the ways in which they have to execute his revanche.“

1756/57 Immanuel Kant • In view of so much human suffering this disaster

(1724 -1804) should help us in developíng love and solidarity
with the victims instead of seeing it as a conse-
quence God´s revanche for man´s misdeeds.

• Endless numbers of bad people die in peace.

• EQs do shake some countries ever since, …
the Christian Peru as much as the pagan Peru,
while other cities never experienced such
disasters since their earliest days although its
people are not better than those in other cities.
In his two publications about the Lisbon EQ Immanuel Kant

• disproves, on the basis of Newton´s gravitation laws, that comets

and planets could generate strong earthquakes

• propagates Krüger´s ideas about the causes of earthquakes

• assumes an ocean bottom shaking and rapid uprise of some

15 feet in an area with the side length between Cape St. Vincent and
Cape Finisterre as the cause of the strong tsunami. He calculates its
propagation according to the rules of hydrodynamics. The results
agreed well with the observations.

• infer the existence of very extended submarine mountain chains

outranging by far those known from the land surface and associates
the Lisbon EQ with the submarine Azores ridge.

• mentions the observation of EQ precursory phenomena such as

unrest of animals, sea level and water level changes in wells, changes
in the spring water flow and lightning discharges.
 John Mitchel • describes in 1760 wave-like vibrations of two EQs
(1724-1793) in London
• suggests calculation of wave speed by comparison
of arrival times at two well separated points

• calculates for the Lisbon EQ in 1755 0.5 km/s.

1783 Calabria EQ:

„Various effects of the 1783 earthquake near Settizano and Cossoletto in Calabria“

One of the first objective depictions of tectonic earthquake effects.

Charles Lyell • Develops the „Principle of Actualism“
(1797 – 1875) in geological developments

• Visits after the New Zealand earthquake 1855

the Windy Point/Rurakirae Head, at the south
coast of the Northern Island. There the EQ had
caused coastal uplift between 2 m and 6.5 m.

D Confirmation of the „Principle of Actualism“

• Concludes that all coastal mountains in the

area are due to repeated coastal uplifts in
conjunction with large Pleistocene EQs.
Robert Mallet • Irish engineer; writes after field investigations of the
(1810 – 1881) EQ near Napels on 16 Dec. 1857:
D „The First Principles of Observational Seismology“

• First determination of source depth for Naples EQ

(h = 10.4 km)
• Pioneered the application of physical and engineering
principles to the explanation of the geologic nature of EQs;
• Defined several still valid notions in seismology, such
as EQ focus, epicenter, hypocenter;
• First modern EQ catalogue with information about
location, time and damages of EQs;
• In 1851 first use of dynamite explosions in England to
measure speed of elastic waves → explosion seismology
• Concludes that EQ waves are similar to sound waves and
travel with different velocity through different materials
depending on their different physical properties;
• In 1860 first world seismicity map published
• In 1880 foundation of the Seismological Society of Japan
Mallet´s 1890 world seismicity map based on reported felt EQ shaking alone
3. Scientific-technical findings and developments of
crucial importance for the advancement of seismology

1678 Hooke, Robert Hooke´s law: Proportionality between stress and

(1635 -1703) strain in elastic bodies

1691 Halley, Edmont Proposes an Earth´s model with a liquid outer

(1656 -1742) and a solid inner core

1799 Cavendish, H. Determination of average density of the Earth

(1731 -1810)

1821 Navier, Claude. L. General equations of elasticity

(1785 -1703)

1822 Cauchy, A. L. Foundations of the theory of elasticity;

(1789 -1836) Definition of terms stress, deformation etc.
1830 Poisson, S. D. Oscillations of an elastic sphere calculated;
(1781 -1840)
First theoretical description of longitudinal
and transverse waves;

Poisson ratio, Poisson distribution (EQ statistics)

1845 Stokes, George Definition of bulk and shear modulus

(1819 -1903)
 From Earthquake Information Bulletin, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1979

1856 First use of Palmieri´s „sismografo elettro-magnetico“ in the volcanic

Observatory on Mount Vesuvius. The instrument responded to both vertical
and horizontal motions and gave give direction, intensity and duration of EQs

1841 Pagani portable pendulum seismometer

1873/75 Suess, Eduard Hypothesis: EQs are bound to tectonic faults
(??)

1874 De Rossi presents first widely used seismic intensity scale

1878 De Rossi builds first seismograph L

Ernst Heinrich Bruns

(1848-1919) „Theory of the figure of the Earth“
1880 Milne and Ewing First widely used seismographs

Milne record of a strong local EQ at Tokyo

in 1882. The usefulness of Milne´s instrument
was diminished by its lack of damping.
Principle of the MILNE seismograph.

Ewing´s horizontal pendulum seismometer  and record 

of a strong local earthquake on March 8, 1881.
1886 Brassart seismic warning device

1886 Brassart three-component seismometrograph

recording on smoked paper and glas
1887 Rayleigh, Sir John W. Book „Theory of Sound“; proof of the
(1842 -1919) existence of „Rayleigh“ LR surface waves

1888 Schmidt, August First description of the basic phenomena

(1840 -1929) of the propagation of seismic waves

← Travel-time curve

← Deflection point P
depending on source depth

← Seismic rays S

Wave fronts W

E. v. Rebeur-Paschwitz identifies in 1889 more than 30 transient events
(1861-95) of different duration and amplitude which super-
pose his long-period tidal records. He finds that
they are often in close timely co-incidence in the
synchronous records at POT and WHF .

To ≈ 10 – 20 s
V up to 295 times

Tokyo EQ 1889
First records of an EQs
at teleseismic distance →
1895 In the year of his death, there appear two major publications by
E. v. REBEUR-PASCHWITZ in GERLAND´s Beiträge zur Geophysik,
in which he states:

• There are surface and body waves

which propagate through the Earth; →

• The propagation velocity is significantly

larger at greater depth than near to
the Earth surface;

• Accordingly, the apparent horizontal

velocity is a function of distance!

Therefore D

Peter Bormann
 → „EQ observations provide us ... with a means to determine the
elasticity modulus of the Earth interior at different depth.“

→ „We will thus be in a position, particularly with strong

earthquakes, to track the wave propagation through the
whole Earth´s body and thus to develop the fundamentals
for a new theory which will guide us, in an indirect way,
gradually to the knowledge of the composition of the
Earth´s Interior.“
In conclusion v. Rebeur-Paschwitz („Beiträge zur Geophysik, 2, p. 773-782):
• proposes the establishement of an international system of
earthquake stations (in total 35)

• drafts a related resolution for the 6th International Geographic

Convention held in London in 1895:

Peter Bormann
 • „We wish to propose in the first line the foundation of an international net
of earthquake stations with the task to observe, in a systematic way, the
propagation of motions on the Earth´s surface and through the Earth body
that emanate from large earthquake centers.“

• „It is desirable and for the success of this undertaking important that all
stations select the same kind of instruments and that these are brought up
to the same degree of sensitivity.“

• „All signatories consider a Central Bureau for

the collection and publicationof the earthquake
reports from all over the world a necessary
supplement to the proposed monitoring system.“

This resolution is submitted to the conference by

Georg C. K. GERLAND (1833-1919) →
Professor of Geography at Strasbourg University.

Peter Bormann
1896
Reinhold Ehlert assistant with Georg GERLAND, modifies in 1896
(1871-1899) the single-component horizontal pendulum of Ernst
v. REBEUR-PASCHWITZ to a 3-component
horizontal pendulum, recommended by
G. GERLAND as standard pendulum for the
proposed global network ↓
J. Emil Wiechert first German Professor of Geophysics at Göttingen
(1861-1928)
1896 proposes that the Earth´s core consists of iron.
1900 builds his first seismographs
1903 publishes „Theory of automatic seismographs“

WIECHERT 15 t pendulum, T = 2.2s, V = 2000

1904 astatic WIECHERT pendulum

(N, E), T ≈ 8.5 s, V ≈ 200
1897 Cancani (Italy) developed a 300 kg seismograph and records the strong
Assam earthquake in India 

Richard D. Oldham Identifies P, S and L waves

(1858-1936) in seismic records of the
Assam earthquake, India and
suspects possible existance
of an Earth´s core.

Vicentini´s microseismograph
1899 First investigations into the energy of reflected and refracted
seismic waves by Knott

Rudolph Straubel develops in Jena a vertical component seismographs

(1864-1946) with high magnification and photographic registration

One out of world-wide only four records D

of the famous 1908 Tunguska meteorite
fall with the Straubel vertical seismograph
1901 First

STRAUBEL

HELMERT

GERLAND
OMORI WIECHERT

The conference proposed an International Association for Seismology with

a Permanent Commission, a General Assembly and a Central Bureau
1900 World maps of seismicity distribution by Montassus de Ballore
and John Milne

1902 First global Earth´s model

published in Berlin

1904 Foundation of the International Seismological Association (ISA)

with its Central Bureau in Strasburg. → First Chairman: G. Gerlandt
 1905
Boris B. Golizyn First electrodynamic seismograph with
(1862-1916) galvanometric recording L

The Jena-built vertical

component seismometer
of type Golizyn (Ts = 10 s) D

Omori´s 60-second C the 1905 Cambridge-

built horizontal component
horizontal pendulum Golizyn seismometer
1905
Ludwig Geiger Method for epicenter location of EQs based on
(1882-1966) P-wave first arrivals

1906
Karl Zoeppritz compiles first teleseismic travel-time curves K for
(1881-1908) longitudinal, transversal body waves and surface waves
1906

H. F. Reid proposes after the 1906

San Francisco EQ the shear fracture/
rebound hypothesis for tectonic EQs

R. D. Oldham infers from

world-wide travel-time
observations of P- and
S-waves the existance
of a liquid Earth´s core
1907 Several innovative seismographs
produced by Agamemnone in Italy
Andrija Mohorovičič Discovers 1909 the lower boundary of the Earth´s
(1857-1936) crust (Moho = Mohorovičič discontinuity)

C Mohorovičič´s original travel-time graph

and related Lcrustal cross section (redrawn)
1910 Gustav Herglotz Develops 1910 (with E. Wiechert) first exact
(1811-1953) procedure to derive 1-D velocity distribution
in the Earth´s interior from continuous seismic
travel-time curves

1911 A.E.H. Love Theoretical proof of the existence of horizontally

polarized surface waves (Love waves)

1912 Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg 12-degree seismic intensity scale

1913 Beno Gutenberg Determines depth of the core-mantle boundary
(1889-1960) (2900 km)
G. becomes a pioneer of modern seismology:
• finds with Richter (1944) the Gutenber-Richter law D
(frequency of occurence of EQs as a function of magnitude)
• develops teleseismic magnitude calibration
functiions for body and surface waves (1945)
• discovers the asthenosphere (1948)
 Alfred Wegener First publication of „The Origin of the Continents“
(1880-1930) and Oceans“ in 1915

180 Mio
years B.P.

50 Mio In 50 Mio
years B.P. years A.P.
Internat. Geophysical Year

Upper Mantle Project

Geodynamic Project
1917/18 First studies of the mechanism of earthquakes by Shida
in Japan, based on the azimuthal distribution of P-wave
polarities

Ludger Mintrop • Discovers 1919 critically refracted head-waves from

(1880-1956) seismic discontinuities („Mintrop waves“; patented)

• Introduced already in 1908 the exploration of the

uppermost Earth´s layers with controlled seismic
sources (4t weight dropped from 14 m high skaffold)
and portable seismometers

1922 First hints by H.Turner to the existence of EQs at large depth

1923 Nakano gives a physically plausible description of the

earthquake by a point source model (quadrupol)
1923 B. Gutenberg publishes a first 1-D model of P- and S-wave
velocity distribution in the Earth based on teleseismic
body wave travel times
1926 Harald Jeffreys Proof that (outer) Earth´s core is liquid
(1902-1993) and that the core-mantle boundary is a
compositional boundary (iron D rocks)
1928 Kiyoo Wadati Proof of the existence of deep earthquakes
(1902-1993) („Benioff-Wadati Zone“ D subduction zones)

1935 Charles Richter Development of the first magnitude scale

(1900-1985) D assessing earthquake size from instrumental
recordings

Ml = logAmax - logA0
1935 Hugo Benioff Develops the first
(1899-1968) strain meter D

1936 Inge Lehmann Discovers the inner core of the Earth

(1888-1993) and determines its radius with 1,400 km

Calculated by
B. Gutenberg
 1939 Griggs is the first to assume convection currents in the
Earth´s mantle as a mechanism to explain tectonic activities/
mountain building

Harald Jeffreys
(1891-1989)

1939-40

Presents, together with Bullen, first precise models

of the Earth´s deep structure derived from the
Jeffreys-Bullen travel-time curves J

1940 Birch Hypothesis, that the Earth´s inner core consists of

solid iron.
1950-53 Thomson and Haskell develop the matrix formalism for calcu-
lating wave propagation through horizontally layered media

1952 Hugo Benioff records for the first time extremely long-period
seismic waves with periods around 57 min. He suspects that
these are fundamental modes (free oscillations) of the Earth.

1956 Vvedenskaya´s hypotheses of the equivalence between forces

and dislocations in describing seismic source processes.

1957-59 First International Geophysical Year (IGY)

1958 Pekeris calculates theoretically spheroidal and toroidal eigen

modes of the Earth.

1960 The Chile Mw = 9.5 „Century earthquake“

D First clear observations of the Earth´s fundamental modes!
1960s • Deployment of the World-wide Standard Seismograph
Network (WWSSN) with sensitive SP and LP seismographs

• About 100 more stations with standardized SP, BB and often

also LP seismographs were deployed in the Soviet Union,
East European states, Cuba and China
 • Significantly improved global EQ detection and location

• Begin of routine determination of seismic fault-plane solutions

to derive main stress directions

Typical instrumentation used in the WWSSN:

Willmore SP

Benioff Sprengnether

— SP — LP
š š

Geotech LP
Typical instrumentation used in the Soviet and East European network:

Kirnos LP

VSJ-I HSJ-I
Ts = 15-30s Ts = 15-30s

Teupser LP

VSJ-II HSJ-II
Ts ≈ 1s Ts ≈ 1s

Teupser SP
And new types of sensors such as:

• borehole seismometers D

C • ocean bottom seismometers

• electronic seismometers

D
1960-69 International Upper Mantle Project (UMP)
1970-79 International Geodynamic Project (IGP)

D Elaboration of the seafloor spreading and

plate tectonic concept

Essential steps and results:

Paleomagnetic pole positions from
Cambrium to Trias-Jura

Paleomagnetic seafloor patterns of alternating

polarities and paleomagnetic time scales
(Vine and Mathew, 1963; Hertzler, 1966, et al.)
Ocean bottom topography from echo sounding
Details of echo sounding results which
strongly support the concepts of
seafloor spreading and lithophere
subduction near deep sea trenches
(Ewing and Ewing, 1967, et al.)
Peculiarities of seismic source mechanisms
in subduction zones (Isacks & Molnar, 1969)

Wilson´s hypothesis of transform faults existing along offsets of

oceanic ridges (1965) proved by L. Sykes (1967) with detailed
source mechanism data.
From here onwards the presentation is not yet completed
Barazangi & Dorman (1969)