CFA Sector Analysis

Sector Analysis: A Framework for Investors
AIRLINES
READY FOR TAKE OFF
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY
By Alan Lok, CFA, Eunice Chu and Guruprasad Jambunathan
Perhaps it’s the thrill of voyaging to a far-flung, unfamiliar INDUSTRY TURBULENCE

place. Maybe it’s the teasing prospect of a seat or—even
better—an earnings upgrade. Whatever our reasons, we Today’s airline industry is fiercely competitive, with LCCs
remain seduced and frustrated by the airline industry. and ambitious ultra LCCs challenging the market share
of traditional full-service carriers (FSCs). Airlines are also
In a 2007 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett observed that: vulnerable to “events,” including disease outbreaks (e.g.,
SARs, bird flu), acts of terror, and fluctuations in the
The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, price of oil: fuel charges can be over a third of an airline
requires significant capital to engender the growth, then company’s cost structure.
earns little or no money—think airlines. Here a durable
competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the Also worth mentioning is that FSCs are overly sensitive to
days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist changes in the economic cycle, as economic downturns
had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his affect the demand for premium-class seating. These long-
successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down. established operators also have a proportionately higher
number of unionised employees who are prepared to take
In the beginning, airlines were a must-have sovereign disruptive industrial action.
accessory, an essential strategic asset with monopoly
powers that conferred national pride and international Furthermore, airline companies have little or no bargaining
prestige. That said, packing a soft-power punch wasn’t power with the upstream airplane manufacturers, Boeing
cheap, and the industry was replete with loss-making and Airbus, who operate as a duopoly.
state-owned companies.
To the relief of investors (and taxpayers), economic sanity SIT BACK AND RELAX
eventually prevailed and privatisation, together with the
introduction of low-cost carriers (LCCs), helped to forge a Despite the turbulence, calmer skies do exist. Asia Pacific,
more sensible trading environment. the world’s most promising growth engine, is dominated by
young and affluent customers with a taste for travel. Also,
Old habits die hard, though, and aspects of a state-owned flying has become an affordable mode of transport, with
past haunt the airline industry. Intergovernmental deals low oil prices, better technology, and competitive LCCs
dictate which airlines can fly and where they can land, supporting a decline in fares. The nondiscretionary nature
and despite cheaper alternatives, national airlines still of demand, predominantly from the business sector, helps
locate their hubs on their home turf. Industry pricing is also prevent a hard landing during periods of rough weather.
quixotic: a flight with two stopovers may be 40% cheaper
than a shorter, more fuel-efficient, direct journey. However, even with recent advancements, the industry is
still far from operating at its best. To garner efficiencies,
airline companies need to look at addressing crucial
stumbling blocks, including
• how to work more efficiently with intermediaries, such
as online travel agencies and search engines, to reduce
costs and provide a customised experience;
• ways by which technology can eliminate the need for
intermediaries; and
• the simplification of airline/customer interactions,
which are still cumbersome as compared with Amazon
or Uber, for example.
CE Qualified This publication qualifies for 1.0 CE credits under the guidelines
Activity of the CFA Institute Continuing Education Program.
AIRLINES
MAPPING YOUR INVESTMENT ROUTES NETWORKS AND FLEET MANAGEMENT

In this section, we extract some important lines of enquiry If your flights are always quiet or, conversely, constantly
from our sector analysis framework that will help to move operating at full capacity, it may indicate that the company
your analysis forward. If you plan to invest in an airline has capacity-related issues. Scrutinise which routes
company, consider these several factors before you make experience the most significant mismatch between supply
a final decision. and demand. What add-on services or promotions does
the airline offer to increase the load factor, and do these
Leading airline operators usually offer several airline have an impact on cost?
brands, which can be split into three groups: the traditional
FSC carriers; the so-called hybrids, which have low-cost Not long ago, time spent at an airport was a reasonably
business strategies but still offer some full-service features; enjoyable part of the flying experience. Now that time
and the “pure” LCCs, which get passengers from A to B but often feels like an endurance test. Airlines still need
provide little else. For this framework, we will classify the airports, however, so how do they decide which ones to
hybrids and the LCCs together. use? Identify whether the airports an airline company is
using are centrally located or situated many kilometres
To begin with, it is worth noting a company’s route profile. from the actual destination. Lastly, look at time slots and,
Is the route profile dominated by low-cost brands or full- where possible, gate numbers – this information can be
service operations? How does the company decide where quite revealing.
to deploy each business model?
Old aeroplanes make passengers—and investors—nervous.
Having established the company’s business model, Study the makeup of a company’s fleet and determine its
figuratively look inside its aeroplanes and understand average age. Does it align with the operator’s route profile
how seat demand reacts to changes in price. At a broad (e.g., larger aircraft for long-haul routes; smaller planes for
level, analyse if this differs according to passenger shorter trips)?
profile – leisure/business. If you would like to dig deeper,
observe if price sensitivity varies with route type (e.g.,
short-haul versus medium or long haul; domestic versus COMPETITION
international) and with the time of year.
Key routes, such as Singapore/Hong Kong, used to be
Unless the company is a niche, single-country player, it will the preserve of a select few FSC carriers. Fortunately,
most likely offer a mixture of domestic and international this arrangement has been disrupted by the LCCs, who
routes. Study what these are and the number of introduced competition and sensible fare structures. Take
passengers who travel for business compared with those time to look at the number of carriers on a company’s key
who journey at their leisure. Does the airline plan to expand routes and determine how the market will evolve and the
its route network or has it earmarked routes for closure? impact that evolution may have on demand and pricing.
Among the key quantitative metrics to track, ascertain the
company’s capacity growth expectations, measured in
available seat kilometres (ASKs). Simultaneously, assess
per-unit revenue expectations, also known as revenue
passenger kilometres (RPKs).
TECHNOLOGY, EFFICIENCY, AND COST CUTTING

Earlier, we mentioned the statist mindset prevalent
among airlines companies, which can influence attitudes
toward technology. Consider how well an operator is
embracing change. For example, does the airline offer
web/mobile check-in, then follow through with automated
bag-drop facilities? What about the use of robots in
the baggage handling, cargo, supplies, cleaning, and
refurbishment divisions?
AIRLINES
THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE PREPARE FOR LANDING

Up to now, the airline industry has avoided intense And finally, remember Warren Buffett and his gloomy view
environmental scrutiny, but that doesn’t mean you of the airline industry? Well in 2016, he spent more than
shouldn’t examine a company’s plans to reduce emissions USD1.3 billion accumulating stocks across four major US
and become more fuel-efficient. Find out if the company airlines: American Airlines, Delta, Southwest Airlines, and
monitors the cabin air quality of its passenger flights. United Continental.
Another line of enquiry could relate to the regulations
governing noise produced by the company’s aircraft during Changes of heart are, of course, free, but Buffet’s actions
takeoff and landing. serve to highlight the undulating dynamics of the airline
business model: one minute it’s a complete disaster and
the next a heaven-sent opportunity. It also underscores
why analysis is so enjoyable – you never know what you
are going to discover.
About the Authors

Alan Lok, CFA, is Director of Society Advocacy Engagement, Asia Pacific at CFA Institute. He researches and writes on investor
protection issues and capital market structure and coauthored a CFA Institute position paper on capital market integrity,
“Portfolio Pumping in Singapore: Myth or Reality”. Mr. Lok has more than 10 years of equity research experience, spanning
various industries and sectors.
Eunice Chu is an ACCA-qualified finance professional. She was a regional finance director of a Fortune 500 multinational
corporation and at present heads the policy function of ACCA Hong Kong.
Guruprasad Jambunathan is Director for Financial Research at CRISIL, a global research and analytics company. He has more
than 12 years of experience in equity research and works closely with a wide clientele of buy-side and sell-side firms as well as
with academic think-tanks across various continents.
© CFA Institute 2018. All rights reserved

AIRLINES
02
HEADWINDS
03
FACTORS
Strong trade Little to no Vulnerability to
FACING THE unions bargaining power oil price volatility FAVORING
INDUSTRY with aircraft
manufacturers THE INDUSTRY
Vulnerability to Sensitive to general

social economic business cycles
“events” Growth in Technological
APAC markets improvements
FSCs LCCs ULCCs
(full service (low cost (ultra low-cost
carriers) carriers) carrier)
01
Room for operational
TYPE OF Greater affordability
compared to past improvements
AIRLINE
AIRLINES
/efficiencies
Infographic showing the step-by-step

process of analyzing the Airline industry
04
06 ESG
FACTORS
KEY AREAS OF ANALYSIS
Competition Sensitivity of seat Company’s

on key routes demand relative to pricing traffic profile
Emissions Air quality of Noise during
control and passenger take-off/landing
fuel efficiency flights
05 Cost
structure
Overall network and
fleet management
Capacity
management
KEY METRICS
TO TRACK Per-unit revenue
expectations, also known Airport Use of technology to improve
Available seat as revenue passenger strategy efficiencies/cut costs
kilometers (ASKs) kilometers (RPKs)

AIRLINES
Airlines
1. How sensitive is seat demand to changes in pricing? 4. What is the capacity to demand scenario in the
company’s key routes? How effective has the
a. How does demand in the different travel classes
company’s network and fleet management been?
(leisure/business) react to changes in price?
b. How does price sensitivity/demand vary with route a. Which routes are experiencing the most mismatch?
type (short versus medium; long haul and domestic What factors are causing this mismatch?
versus international)? b. How does the company expect this to evolve? How does
c. Is demand consistent across positive and negative it plan to manage its capacity in this light?
price changes? c. How does the company forecast future demand? How
d. How does this behavior vary across different classes does it plan capacity deployment?
of travel? d. Does the company observe seasonal variations in
e. How much seasonal variation in price sensitivity does demand? If so, in which routes and how much variation
the company experience? Are there specific periods or does it expect?
months where it can charge higher prices? e. How does the company manage seasonality to achieve
optimal load factors and yields?
2. What is the company’s traffic profile? f. Are there specific periods when the demand is unusually
low? If so, how useful are price discounts or other
a. What is the company’s traffic mix between domestic promotions in reducing this impact?
and international routes?
b. What is the percentage split of the company’s
5. The company’s airport strategy
passengers who travel on business compared with
those travel for leisure? a. How does the company decide which airports to fly from
or to?
c. How does the company see this evolving? How does it
intend to capitalize on those trends? b. Does the company prefer the central or main airports or
suburban airports?
d. What are the company’s route expansion plans? Are
there specific routes where it has a focus? c. Does the company have different strategies for the
different routes it operates?
e. Are there any routes that the company plans to shut
soon? What are the reasons for doing so? d. What are the airport and handling charges per
passenger across different airports?
e. Are the main airports uniformly costlier to operate than
3. What is the impact of security and geopolitical issues
their suburban counterparts?
on demand for air travel?
f. How different are the traffic and yields between flights
a. Does the company have an internal framework that
operating out of the two classes of airports?
identifies vulnerable routes?
g. How does the company expect this dynamic to develop
b. Does the company believe that any of its routes
in future?
are vulnerable?
h. What time slots does the company have in various airports
c. How much will air traffic be disrupted by political and
in its markets? How many of these are in peak hours?
security-related issues? How frequently and for how long
does the company expect these disruptions to occur?
d. How does the company intend to manage the impact of 6. What are the macroeconomic growth trends in the
these disruptions? company’s key markets?
a. What are the disposable income levels in the company’s
key markets of service? How are these evolving?
b. Where does the company expect to see structural
growth come from?
c. How much impact would the above changes exert on
the company’s business models?
d. What is the company’s strategy to leverage
these opportunities?
e. How useful does the company believe consumer and
business confidence indicators are in forecasting macro
and industry outlook?
AIRLINES
7. What are the trends in leisure travel in the company’s 10. Does the company operate a hub-and-spoke model?
key markets?
a. Does the company have a primary or global hub? Where
a. How favourable is the socio-cultural environment for is this located? Does it have hubs in other regions?
sustained growth in leisure travel? b. How well connected are the company’s hubs to critical
b. Which segment of the demographic is driving demand routes and to the population centres they serve? How
for leisure travel currently? How much of it is contributed many flights (across all airlines) operate out of these
by the younger age groups? airports in a typical week?
c. How does the company expect this to evolve and what c. Do the airports that serve as the company’s key hubs
impact will it have on nature of demand? How does it have space to support future growth in traffic?
plan to adopt to and leverage from these trends? d. When does the company expect its hubs to become
d. What are customers’ preferred destinations? How saturated regarding traffic? Are these airports planning
does this fit with its portfolio of routes? How does the to expand capacity to keep pace with expected growth
company expect this to evolve? in traffic?
e. Does the company currently offer or have plans to deliver
packages to leisure travellers in partnership with other 11. What are the company’s business model and
hospitality providers like hotels? route strategies?
a. Does the company operate on a predominantly
8. What is the level of market concentration and full-service or low-cost model or a hybrid?
competition in the company’s key routes?
b. What is the company’s route profile in terms of low-cost
a. How many carriers does the company typically compete flights vs full-service flights?
with on its key routes? c. How does it decide where to deploy which model?
b. Can the company provide information on its brand value? d. How different are the company’s operating margins
c. How does the company expect competition to evolve? between the two models?
Does it anticipate fewer or more carriers to operate in its
key routes?
12. What are the company’s code-sharing arrangements
d. What impact will this have on demand and pricing? and related strategies?
a. What code-sharing agreements does the company have
9. How easy is it for new players to enter the industry and in place?
compete? What are the entry barriers?
b. Which routes are the company planning to expand into
a. How easy or difficult is it to get a license from the civil by using code-sharing?
aviation regulators? c. Which carriers does the company consider as potential
b. Are there restrictions on foreign investments or ownership? partners? How does it choose its partners for this purpose?
c. Can new players enter the market by partnering with d. How does the company decide to deploy code-sharing
existing carriers? versus operating own flights? How frequently does it
d. Are there underserved routes which a new player can review this?
target to gain entry?
e. Which of the company’s routes are most vulnerable 13. What is the potential for growth from providing
to competition? connectivity to long-haul hubs?
a. Do such opportunities exist in the company’s key markets?
b. How many of these does the company currently serve
and expect to serve in future?
c. How much competition does the company face from
other carriers/modes of transport in servicing these
connecting routes?
AIRLINES
14. How does the effectiveness of the company’s capacity 18. In which areas does the company utilize technology to
management compare with that of its peers? improve efficiency and cut costs?
a. What are the company’s load-factor spreads and how a. Does the company offer web/mobile check-in
does this compare with peers? to passengers?
b. Does the company offer add-on services or promotions b. Does the company provide automated bag drop facilities
to increase the load factor? What is the impact of these to its passengers?
on costs? c. Does the company use robots in its operations? For
example, baggage handling, cargo and supplies,
cleaning and refurbishment?
15. What is the profile of the company’s aircraft fleet?
d. Has the company fully computerized its route planning,
a. What is the makeup of the company’s fleet by aircraft flight scheduling and crew deployment?
type? What is the average age of its fleet? e. Is the company exploring the use of artificial intelligence
b. Is the company’s fleet profile aligned with its route to improve other operations?
profile (larger aircraft for long-haul routes; smaller aircraft f. Has the company ever experienced computer downtime?
for short and medium haul)? If so, what were the causes?
c. How does the company’s fleet’s performance stack
up on fuel efficiency? How much fuel is used per ASK
(available seat kilometres) on average? 19. Has the company met its operating measures? How are
these evolving and compare with those of its peers?
16. What is the route performance of the company’s aircraft? a. What are the capacity growth expectations (ASKs) over
the next 3–5 years?
a. What is current turnaround time (TA) achieved by the b. What are the company’s per-unit revenue
company’s flights? expectations (RPKs)?
b. What are the average TA times for short-haul and long- c. How much yield-per-revenue passenger kilometre does
haul flights? the company currently generate? Which routes offer the
c. What are the company’s targets for turnaround time? highest yields? How seasonal are these yields?
d. What is the on-time operation record for the company’s d. What are the company’s operating margins?
flights? What is the target? e. How does FX impact the company’s RPK and CASK (cost
e. How do the company’s turnaround metrics compare to per available seat kilometre)?
its competition? f. What is the company’s hedging strategy concerning fuel
prices and FX?
17. What has been the company’s safety track record?
How does this compare with that of its peers? 20. What is the company’s financial leverage after
a. What are the various measures and practices the factoring any off-balance sheet debt in the form of
company follow to ensure flight safety? aircraft leases?
b. What metrics does the company use to evaluate those a. What has been the company’s leverage ratio after
and what are its targets? What has been the company’s considering aircraft rentals and off-balance sheet items
track record in achieving those targets? (net debt including leases/EBITDA)? How does this
c. What has been the fatality rate of the company’s operations? compare with its peers?
d. What were the causes of these – accidents versus b. What is the company’s aircraft lease profile? How many
security-related and on-flight versus ground incidents? of these are operating leases versus wet leases?
e. What has been the company’s Flight Incident Report rates? c. How does the company decide on ownership versus
f. Does the company participate in the Operational Safety leasing versus rental? How does it determine the type of
Audit of the International Air Transport Association or any lease to use?
such equivalent?
g. Have any of the company’s aircraft ever been grounded
due to safety concerns?
AIRLINES
21. How much revenue is derived from ancillary services 23. How has the company performed on environmental and
and loyalty programmes? climate change related issues?
a. What items constitute these services? Is the company a. Establish the company’s fuel consumption and
planning to expand this basket? emissions per revenue passenger kilometre/load tonne
b. How much revenue does the company expect to derive kilometre flown?
from these in the future? What are the margins from b. Does the company have a plan to reduce fuel and
these services? emissions intensity of its operations? If so, what
c. How useful are the company’s loyalty programmes in measures are being undertaken?
getting repeat customers? What are the costs involved? c. What are the company’s reduction targets? How is its
d. How much of the company’s liabilities are associated track record in achieving these targets?
with loyalty programmes? d. Does the company have or expect to have binding
obligations under any existing or proposed market-based
measures on emissions reduction such as the European
22. What is the company’s industrial relations policy
Emission Trading Scheme - Aviation? If so, can it provide
and strategy?
details of their operational and financial impact?
a. How successful has the company been in retaining e. Does the company offer an option for passengers to buy
pilots and technical staff? carbon credits to offset the emissions resulting from
b. How vulnerable are the company’s operations to their flight?
potential industrial action? Has it experienced any such f. What are the regulations governing noise produced by
disruption in the past? the company’s aircraft while taking off from and landing
c. What is the structure and duration of the company’s at different airports that the company operates from?
wage agreements? What is the company’s track record in complying with
d. How strong and active are the trade unions in the these requirements?
company’s markets of operation? What percentage of g. Does the company monitor the cabin air quality of its
the company’s workforce is unionised? passenger flights? What measures does it undertake to
e. Are the unions co-operative or antagonistic, in general? ensure the quality is within acceptable limits as required
by regulation/health standards?
h. How does the company ensure the safe and secured
collection, handling and storage of passenger, employee
and flight data?
i. Has the company ever experienced a data breach or
been subject to information/cyber sabotage?
j. What are the company’s obligations under the data
privacy/security statutes of different jurisdictions? What
measures does it undertake to ensure full compliance?

BANKING INDUSTRY
UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS
OF THE BANKS SECTOR
In the first two editions of the investor series, published these factors with peer banks in the sector. Furthermore, it
earlier this year, we explored the Real Estate Investment is sensible to examine the bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio (the
Trust (REIT) business model and the Telecommunications extent to which deposits finance loans) and the sources
sector. In this article, we examine banks and highlight the of a bank’s funds – specifically, the contribution made by
various factors and lines of enquiry that will help you make low-cost deposits (current and savings accounts) to the
informed investment decisions. total funding mix.
Next in line would be fee- and commission-based income.
SPHERES OF OPERATION This income arises from a variety of sources, including
corporate advisory services, transactional commissions,
The role banks play in our lives is vital. Their activities investment banking and wealth-management services,
underpin the efficient working of an economy – indeed, and remittances, together with the commission generated
they are often among the most significant constituents of from the sale of third-party financial products.
a country’s stock market.
In addition, banks also generate trading income, which
When we talk about banks, we are not just referring to is non-interest and non-fee-based in nature. This income
the familiar branches we occasionally visit to deposit is usually derived from trading in bonds, FOREX, rates,
funds or withdraw cash. Banks is an umbrella term that derivatives, and equities.
describes an industry subdivided into several segments,
including, but not restricted to Consumer Banking & Wealth Among these streams, trading income typically exhibits the
Management (also known as retail banking), Wholesale highest level of volatility and risk, while NII is recurring and
(also known as institutional banking) and Treasury. the most stable form of income. Lastly, income can also
flow in from investments held and managed by the bank.
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE As an aside, you should also be conscious of the cost

structure of the bank and the trend in cost-to-income
Let’s begin at a high level. The first dimension to look ratio. Staff expenditure is typically the largest component
at when assessing any bank is the performance of the of a bank’s costs.
economy (or economies) in which it operates. This directly
influences credit growth and asset quality. Both factors If you want to gauge how a bank is performing across all
will tend to be better when an economy is thriving. In business sectors, it is important to investigate its return
particular, observe how a bank’s loan book correlates with on equity, as well as its return on assets. The extent to
changes in a country’s GDP, and how the different sectors which all these earning streams are recurring is another
that make up the loan book are performing. important aspect of banking stocks you should bear in
mind before putting your money on the table.
INCOME GENERATION
SPECIALIST SERVICES
Banks generate their income from a variety of sources. If
we start with interest income, net interest income (and Banks vary in profile and size. Some offer across-the-
margin) would be the key number to examine. Net interest board services, while others are more specialized. For
income (NII) is the difference between what a bank earns on private banks, the pool of affluent individuals across
its loans and its funding costs. A high net interest margin, their key markets is critical, as is the quality of their
in general, indicates loan-book profitability. However, this products and services. Churn rates, trends in fee-based
needs to be placed against the quality of loans provided to income, including how much of this is recurring, are other
evaluate the creditworthiness of an asset. important metrics to note. For investment banking, the
nature of its income generation is more variable, with
A good check here is to assess the sensitivity of loan and returns dependent on trading profits and its M&A deal
deposit growth to changes in interest rates and measure pipeline, so the attendant risks and the track record of the
business should be considered.
BANKING INDUSTRY
RISK-AWARE OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

The very nature of banking requires careful management In recent years, the employment of technology and
of risk. The strength of a bank in the face of credit, digitalisation in banking services has brought both
market, and operational-related challenges can be opportunities and threats. There are a few points to
measured by looking at its capital adequacy ratio, consider. Does the bank use technology to facilitate
regarding Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital, in relation to its risk- expansion across business segments and geographies?
weighted assets (RWA) overall. The amount of non- Will the application of technology lead to enhanced
performing loans that the bank carries in comparison levels of service and deliver new products to the bank’s
with the total loan-book size, as well as the level of customers, as well as reduce its servicing costs?
provisioning maintained against these loans, are also key
parameters that help you to understand risk. At the other end of the spectrum, new-age technologies
in the form of P2P networks, fintech developments, and
Some banks may have off-balance-sheet liabilities, such the advent of crypto-currencies might serve as disruptive
as project partnerships and the provision of third-party forces to the conventional banking ecosystem.
guarantees, that it is not obliged to disclose in granularity
under respective local regulatory frameworks. Off-balance- Another important attribute that demands your full
sheet liabilities are the usual nesting ground for well- attention is the service penetration rate in the key markets
hidden red flags. Liquidity coverage ratio, which is the of operation. Usually, the degree of service penetration
proportion of high-quality liquid assets versus net cash rate functions as a structural influencer and will vary at
outflows, is another metric to observe if you want to know both the market and product level. This may be particularly
if the bank can manage any liquidity shocks effectively. true in developing markets.
The performance of a bank is further influenced by the Lastly, as we approach the tenth anniversary of the
geographical spread of its business, and by the profile global financial crisis, banks remain under the scrutiny of
of the customer base, which has an impact on risk and regulators, with lawmakers worldwide considering various
loan-growth potential. Exposure to specific countries, measures designed to control banking activity. Amid this
industries, or customer groups may bring growth uncertainty, however, many organisations are already
opportunities but also affect the risk profile of the bank. ‘self-regulating’ ahead of anticipated changes. Given that
such activities eat directly into compliance costs, it is
worth finding out what initiatives have been, or will be,
introduced to ensure that the bank operates within a tight
compliance framework.
For research points that look at specific sub-sector types,
such as investment banking and private banking, please
refer to the respective sections of our guide.
About the Authors

Guruprasad Jambunathan, FRM, is a Director for Financial Research at CRISIL, a global analytical company. He has over 12
years of experience in equity research and works closely with a broad clientele of buy-side and sell-side firms, as well as
with academic think tanks across various continents.
This column is an excerpt from the joint research by CFA Institute, Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA)
and CRISIL, entitled “Sector Analysis: An Investors Framework”. The excerpt is printed here with permission from the three
organisations. A full version of the research will be published on CFA Institute Asia-Pacific Research Exchange at www.ARX.cfa

Sector
SectorAnalysis:
Analysis: AA Framework
Framework for Investors
Investors
BANKING
BANKING INDUSTRY
INDUSTRY
02
Types of Income:
INCOME
OPPORTUNITIES Interest Fees based Trading income
What are they?
01
income income
How do they generate
income for the bank?
LOCAL ECONOMY
The business of banks Recurring vs. Return on equity Return on
have a strong correlation non-recurring and tangible assets
with the local economy equity
05 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
Identify any other structural
BANKING 03
RISKS
influences and broader
long-term trends
INDUSTRY What risks are there?
How do they affect
A step-by-step guide to analyzing
the banking industry performance and how are
they being managed?
Market Threat of
penetration of technology-led
banking services disruption
Exposure to Capital Credit, market
cyclical / risky adequacy, and operational
industries liquidity, leverage risk
04
DEGREE OF
Revenue
distribution
Loan portfolio
distribution
BUSINESS Extent of
off-balance
Asset quality:
classification
Size of risk
weighted
Value
at risk
Regulatory
risk
(among (among the CONCENTRATION sheet norms, assets
geographies various brick How is the bank's liabilities, nonperforming
and business and mortar business distributed? estimated loan (NPLs),
units) industries) materialization provisioning
Aspects Unique to the Banking Industry:

Key Risks:
Very high Optimal Requires a
sensitivity to Managing
capital allocation unique approach
• Asset quality
macro-economic risk is central deterioration, geopolitical
among different to each business,
conditions and to the entire
monetary industry
businesses is increasing overall disruptions
critical complexity
policy • Strong regulatory
punitive action for
errant behaviour
BANKING INDUSTRY
Common to the Sector
1. What are the different services and products offered 4. What is the split between businesses generating
by the bank? recurring income versus those generating non-
recurring income?
a. What are the various business segments does the bank
operate (for instance, retail, commercial, investment a. What are the business units of the bank that generate
banking, and private banking) in? recurring income (for instance, interest income)?
b. What is the split of revenue and profits between the various b. Which business units generate income which may not offer
business segments? recurring inflows (for instance, fee income)?
c. Does the bank consider any of these businesses as non- c. How has the mix between these two streams evolved
core? If so, what is the strategy for managing the non- over time?
core businesses? d. What is the bank’s strategy for the next 3-5 years to
manage this mix?
2. What are the geographies does the bank operate in?
a. What is the geographical spread of the operations of 5. How do GDP growth and economic activity influence
the bank? credit demand and deposits in key markets?
b. What is the mix of revenue and profits from those a. How closely does the loan book growth rate correlate with
different regions? the changes in the GDP growth rate in the key markets?
c. What is the share of business derived from domestic b. How does the correlation look against the overall economic
markets versus international markets? growth and against the growth in different sectors that
d. Does the bank consider any of these regions or countries make up the loan portfolio of the bank?
as non-core? If yes, then what is the strategy for managing c. What is the outlook for economic growth in these sectors in
operations in these non-core regions or countries? the key markets?
3. What is the proportion of non-interest income earned 6. What is the effect of changes in interest rates and
by the bank and what are the strategies to manage liquidity on the bank’s business?
these income sources effectively?
a. How does change in interest rates affect deposit and
a. What are the businesses that generate fee income loan growth? Is the relationship consistent irrespective of
(for instance, account-related charges, remittances, interest rate levels and extent of change?
payments, commissions on sale of third-party products, b. How have net interest margin (NIM) and net interest income
guarantees, custodial and safe keeping services and (NII) reacted to changes in the interest rate in the past? Is
capital market advisory)? this relationship expected to hold in the future?
b. What are the businesses that generate non-fee, non- c. How much of the loan book is under fixed versus floating
interest income (trading and investment income)? interest rate arrangement?
c. What is the mix of revenue and profits from non-interest d. Have there been any occasions of liquidity pressures in
income generating businesses by geography? the past due to changes in interest rates? If yes, how were
d. How seasonal and volatile are different components of the those instances managed?
non-interest income? e. How is the Asset and Liability Management (ALM) position of
e. What are the strategies adopted to reduce or manage risk the bank? Is it managed dynamically to take advantage of
and volatility of non-interest income? interest rate movements while retaining effective liquidity?
f. What is the overall strategy for non-interest income
businesses? Does the bank plans to expand, downsize or 7. What is the cost of funds scenario of the bank? How
maintain share in the overall mix? does it compare with that of peers?
a. What is the share of the low cost funding source – Current
and Savings deposits (CASA Ratio) – in total deposits?
b. How does the cost of new deposits compare with that of
existing deposits?
c. How does the bank’s CASA profile change in relation to
changing interest rates?
d. How stable is the CASA profile of the bank in relation to
that of competitors?
BANKING INDUSTRY
8. How accessible and affordable are banking services in 12. Is the bank a Global or Domestic Systematically
the bank’s key markets? Important Financial Institution (SIFI)?
a. How simple is the process of opening and operating bank a. What are the bail-in provisions that apply to the business on
accounts and borrowing of funds? this account?
b. What is the level of transaction costs in the industry? How
does this compare with the cost of the bank’s services? 13. How much, and what kind of, disruption does the
c. How does the market perceive the quality of the bank’s bank foresee from new-age technologies such as
customer service? Are there objective assessments of crypto currency, P2P networks and other fintech
this perception based on proprietary or third-party market developments?
research or surveys? a. What are the potential threats from new-age technologies?
b. Which are the businesses and revenue streams likely to
9. What are the digitalisation-enabled services offered by be affected the most on account of these technological
the bank? developments?
a. How does the bank’s digital offerings compare with c. Does the bank foresee any potential opportunities arising
offerings of competitors? from these technologies? If so, what are the planned
b. To what extent the bank is using data analytics to improve strategies to exploit such prospects?
efficiencies and effectiveness of marketing, to upsell and d. What is the share of customers using online and mobile
cross-sell various products and services to customers and platforms to access banking services?
to provide tailored offerings?
c. Does the bank offer online payment services like digital / 14. How conducive is the social, economic and
mobile wallets and electronic bill payments? demographic profile of the population in the bank’s key
d. How willing are the customers to pay for the added markets to adoption of technology-enabled solutions?
convenience or value provided by digital services? How is this evolving?
a. What is the median age of the population?
10. What is the market share of the bank in different b. What are the penetration levels of computers, smartphones
businesses, in the regions where it does business? and internet connectivity?
a. Are there plans to expand market share in any of these c. What is the perception of the population towards
businesses and regions? technology in general?
b. Does the bank have plans to enter new businesses d. To what extent technology is likely to play a role in promoting
or regions? the goals of financial inclusion by spreading access to, and
c. To what extent does technology facilitate expansion to promoting usage of, banking services?
additional business segments and geographies? What
are the specific technology- enabled initiatives, including 15. What are the various factors that impede the entry of
those awaiting execution, towards this goal? What are the new banks into the market?
benefits anticipated?
a. How difficult is it to obtain banking licence in the
key markets?
11. What is the extent of penetration and geographical
b. What are the criteria governing capital requirements,
spread of the banking network in key markets?
promoter stake, foreign investment and ownership norms?
a. What are the penetration levels of different banking c. How high is the cost of entry into the business across
products and services in the key markets? the key markets?
b. How effectively has the banking industry tapped the market d. What is the market cost of attracting new deposits on a
for banking services? Is the offtake consistent across the per dollar basis?
entire suite of services and products?
e. What are the compliance and overhead expenses per
c. How does the penetration and reach of the bank’s network new customer?
compare with that of the industry?
d. Does the bank plan to penetrate deeper within the existing
customer base or serve a wider set of customers? If so,
what is the strategy around this expansion?
BANKING INDUSTRY
16. What is the level of competition and market 20. How do the bank’s profitability metrics stack up? How
concentration in the banking sector in the key markets? does the profitability compare with peers and how are
these expected to evolve?
a. How many banks operate in the key markets? What is the
bank’s share of business in these markets? a. What are the bank’s NIMs?
b. How well is the bank protected from a sudden disruption b. How does profitability of the bank compare with that of
by a new entrant or a differentiated strategy adopted by peers in terms of key metrics such as Return on Equity
competing banks? (RoE), Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) and Return on
c. What are the norms governing Mergers and Acquisitions in Assets (RoA)?
the banking space in key markets? c. What has been the cost of provisioning for NPLs? How has
d. How easy is it for a new entrant to foray into the industry that affected profitability?
through the M&A route? d. What is the outlook on profitability in the medium and
17. What is the extent of exposure of the loan book to the long term?
cyclical and risky sectors of the economy?
21. How robust is the asset quality of the bank’s loan
a. What is the bank’s objective definition of non-performing book? How does it compare with that of peers?
loan (NPL)?
b. What is the level of NPLs in the cyclical and risky sectors? a. What is the NPL ratio and coverage ratio?
c. How does this compare with the overall level of NPLs? b. What is the cost of risk (total adjustments for impaired
assets included in the income statement, as a proportion of
d. What is the NPL coverage ratio? the overall outstanding loans)?
e. How does the NPL level, proportion and coverage compare c. What have been the bank’s specific strategies
with those of local and global peers? around managing NPLs? How successful have such
measures been? What is the plan of action for the near
18. What is the extent of the bank’s off-balance sheet to medium term?
liabilities? d. What are the regulatory requirements for classifying asset
a. What are the details of guarantees, letters of credit, quality across the key markets?
derivative contracts and other such off-balance
sheet exposures? 22. How much regulatory capital does the bank have?
b. How much of these liabilities are contingent in nature? What are its different components?
How much of those are expected to materialise and when? a. How much adjusted common equity and additional Tier 1
capital does the bank hold?
19. How does the bank’s performance look on operational b. How much Tier 2 capital does the bank hold? What are the
metrics? How does the performance compare with securities it constitutes? Does it include grandfathered
peers and how are these expected to evolve? securities which are likely to be phased out?
a. What have been the trend in loan growth over the past c. What are the standards and assumptions used in
few years? calculating adjusted common equity?
b. What has been the impact of loan growth on interest
income and asset quality? Does faster growth result in lower 23. How is the bank placed on capital requirements,
interest income and/or higher NPLs? liquidity and solvency norms?
c. What are the yields for different types of loans (for instance, a. What are the bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1), Tier 2
mortgage, business and personal loans) and deposits? (CET2) and Total Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Liquidity
d. How is the net interest spread (yield on interest earning Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR)?
assets minus rate of interest paid on borrowed funds) How do these stack up against regulatory requirements?
expected to evolve? b. How do these ratios compare with peers with a similar
e. How has been the trend in net new assets additions, in business, geographical and currency profile?
different businesses and geographies?
f. How has the ratio of net new assets to that of total assets
trended in the last few years?
g. What is the cost-to-income ratio for different businesses
across geographies?
h. How have metrics such as customers, loans, deposits
and assets per employee/branch and employees per
branch evolved?
BANKING INDUSTRY
24. What is the methodology the bank follows to calculate 28. What is the bank’s philosophy on, and approach to,
Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs)? return of capital to shareholders?
a. Which is the Basel standard mandated by regulators for a. What is the philosophy around dividends, buybacks and
the bank? acquisitions?
b. How are RWAs computed (credit RWAs; standardised b. How is excess capital, if any, proposed to be used in
approach vs internal ratings-based approach)? the future?
c. What are the additional criteria and standards required
by regulators? 29. To what extent is technology helping the bank to
improve operational performance?
25. What approach does the bank follows to assess and a. What are the various technology-enabled initiatives taken
calculate credit risk? by the bank to increase process efficiencies, reduce cost of
a. How is the default risk of borrowers assessed and risk operations and improve collections?
weights assigned? b. What are the details of the digital channels offered for
b. What are the asset quality classification norms and customers to engage with and resolve their queries
assumptions followed? and issues? Is it possible for a customer to conduct an
interaction solely through digital channels, without recourse
c. How frequently is the size of NPLs required to be assessed
to offline and traditional channels?
and reported?
c. How is technology helping the bank to improve availability
d. How is the extent of risks from off-balance sheet items such
of services to customers, reduce response times to queries
as bank guarantees and Letters of Intent (LoI) estimated?
and provide interfaces and services in multiple-languages?
d. How helpful are technology-enabled solutions in providing
26. What are the aspects of market risk the bank is
services to traditionally unbanked customers, who may
exposed to?
live in underserved locations, use banking services less
a. How is the impact of interest rate risk on RWAs estimated? frequently, perform smaller-sized transactions or are wary of
What are the assumptions used? using traditional banking channels?
b. What is the currency mix of assets and liabilities? How
is the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on RWAs 30. What role does technology play in helping the bank
estimated? better manage risk?
c. What is the extent of risk (including counterparty risk) a. What are the ways in which technology is helping in
exposure from off-balance sheet commitments and preventing, detecting and mitigating fraud?
from the use of financial derivative instruments such
b. Does the bank use technology to improve the speed,
as hedging?
accuracy and reliability of credit assessment?
d. What has been the amount of security write-downs as a
c. Is the bank using alternative data, such as social media
proportion of total structured credit portfolios over the last
usage, to assess the credit risk of potential borrowers with
few years?
no credit history?
d. Is the bank exploring blockchain technology to develop
27. What are the various operational risk factors that the
solutions for authentication, data protection, fraud
bank is exposed to?
prevention and cyber security?
a. How is the size of potential losses arising from fraudulent
activities estimated? What has been the bank’s experience 31. What is the track record of management in terms of
in this regard? reputation, integrity and transparency among peers?
b. How frequently do service outages occur due to technology, How aggressive is the bank’s style of functioning with
security and safety incidents? How are the provisions respect to business growth, provisioning and selling
required to cover these contingencies estimated? practices?
c. Have there been any instances of loss or theft of
operational, transaction or customer data due to breach of
the bank’s computer systems? What are the measures in
place, or proposed, to address such incidents?
d. What are the other factors of operational risk does the bank
provides for?
e. What is the methodology used to estimate the extent
of various operational risk factors? What is the
Basel-define approach used to estimate such risks -
standardised or advanced?
BANKING INDUSTRY
Queries pertaining to Investment Banking
32. What services are offered by the investment bank? 35. Does the bank engage in proprietary trading?
What is the mix of revenue in the last 10 years?
a. What is the bank’s philosophy guiding the proprietary
a. What is the mix of fee and trading income? (prop) trading activity?
b. What was the proportion of fee income derived from the b. How effectively are the risks managed to ensure any
equity business (public offerings, private placements, adverse developments do not affect other businesses
M&A advisory, underwriting), debt business (syndicated and threaten the survival of the bank?
loans, bridge loans, mezzanine loans), fixed income c. How does the risk and profitability of prop trading
(bond offerings), currencies and commodities? compare with that of trading activity undertaken by
c. How much of the fee income was generated from peers and with that of other businesses of the bank?
offerings in the primary market (IPOs, FPOs) versus
secondary markets (investment research, securities 36. How does the bank stand in terms of market share in
broking)? different offerings?
d. What is the bank’s share of fee income in different asset
a. How much market share does the bank hold by number
classes and offerings across key markets?
of deals, aggregate deal size and aggregate fee income
e. What is the mix of trading income generated from in different asset classes across the key markets?
different asset classes (equity, debt, fixed income,
b. Does the bank have a focus on, or has a strong presence
currencies, commodities and alternatives)?
in, certain industries or geographies? What is the
strategy around this focus?
33. What are the details of the deals in pipeline?
c. Where does the bank feature in the industry league
a. How many deals are in pipeline across different asset tables and rankings?
classes and regions? What is the amount of capital
raising involved? 37. What is the level of household savings in the bank’s
b. What has been the pipeline size and conversion rate (deal key markets?
wins as a proportion of deals proposed) of the bank over
a. How much of the savings are invested in financial assets
the past few years across asset classes and regions?
and capital markets?
c. How does the bank’s deal conversion rate compare with
b. How are these trends expected to evolve in future?
that of the peers?
38. What is the cost structure and profitability of the IB
34. What is the level of M&A and IPO activity in key markets?
business? How do these compare with those of peers
a. What are the factors driving demand for the bank’s and the bank’s other businesses?
offerings in this space?
a. What is the ratio of costs, including bonus, to income?
b. How cyclical and seasonal is the M&A and IPO activity? What is the extent of profitability as measured by RoE
c. How is the prospective business (number and size of less CoE?
deals, fee income) from this segment forecasted? b. How do these measures compare against its
peer universe?
39. What is the Value-at-Risk (VaR) position? How does

this compare with that of its peers?
a. What are the details of the methodology used by the
bank to estimate the VaR position?
BANKING INDUSTRY
Queries pertaining to Private Banking and Wealth Management
40. What is the mix of revenue between fee and interest 42. What is the population size of affluent individuals
income? (HNW and UHNW individuals) in the key markets? How
is it evolving?
a. What are the different services provided to clients (for
instance, Wealth Management, Tax Planning and Estate
43. What are the factors underlying the bank’s relationship
Planning)?
management strategy?
b. What is the mix of the fee income from the different
services provided by the bank? a. What are the dimensions (for instance, amount, source
and age of wealth, age and geographical location of
c. What proportion of the fee income can be regarded as
client) used for client segmentation?
recurring in nature?
b. What is the typical client turnover rate? How does the
d. How volatile and risky is the non-recurring income? How
bank identify causes and minimises churn?
is the volatility managed?
c. How is the effectiveness of relationship managers (RM)
e. Does the bank disclose details of the size of client
measured?
assets managed across client segments (for instance,
high net worth (HNW) group and ultra HNW (UHNW) d. How many clients does a single relationship manager
group, based on total wealth) and geographies? If, so typically advise?
what are the typical ticket sizes? e. How much fee income is generated by a typical
relationship manager in a year?
41. What is the size and profile of the bank’s Assets Under f. What is the strategy and policy adopted by the bank
Management (AUM)? on bonus pay-outs? How does the bank’s practices
compare with industry practices?
a. What is the split of the AUM among different asset
classes, client segments and geographies? g. What is the ratio of staff cost to fee income? What are the
fixed and variable (bonus) components of the staff cost?
b. What are the typical ticket sizes of client assets
managed?
44. To what extent technology is helping in expanding
c. What is the range of asset management fee charged for
offerings and enlarging the client base?
different asset classes, fund types and client segments,
across different regions? a. How does the bank use technology-enabled solutions to
d. What is the AUM share and fee income share across the improve the productivity of RMs?
key markets? b. Are there plans to use technology to offer wealth
e. How much is the mix of revenue (fee and interest management solutions to clients with much smaller
income) earned from different client segments? investible assets, on the lines of a retail wealth
management product?
BANKING INDUSTRY
Environmental, Social and Governance
45. What are the bank’s ESG principles, practice and g. What are the steps taken to ensure financial
track record? inclusiveness of disadvantaged and under-privileged
communities in areas where the bank does business?
a. Does the bank use ESG criteria as a screening factor
while making credit and investment decisions? h. What is the bank’s information security policy and
strategy? How does the bank protect the privacy of
b. What is the value and proportion of loans that are
clients and ensure the safety of their data?
subjected to ESG screening and declined on those
grounds? i. Does the bank have a policy against doing business
with entities which have been accused of violating,
c. What is the value and proportion of own AUMs, AUMs
or operating in conflict zones where there have been
held for clients, financial instruments, investment
violations of, human rights?
property and prop trading activities that are managed in
accordance with ESG criteria? j. Has the bank or its employees been accused,
investigated, tried, penalised, fined or opted for
d. If investment research and advice is provided to clients,
settlement with regulators, customers or shareholders
are ESG criteria incorporated in the research and
for any reason? What are the details of any such
advisory processes?
instances in the last 10 years?
e. Does the bank undertake or make investments in
k. How much are the bank’s expenses and fines over
research related to various risks associated with ESG-
the last 10 years on law suits, fines and settlements
related aspects of the business? If yes, then what is
related to anti-competitive behaviour, anti-trust and
the strategy and the amount of investments made in
monopoly practices?
such initiatives?
l. What is the total amount held under dispute from various
f. Does the bank make investments in microfinance? What
legal proceedings?
has been the value of these investments over the last
few years? m. What is the bank’s policy and track record relating to
political donations?

ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION

BUILDING BLOCKS – UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS OF
CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING
By Alan Lok, CFA; Eunice Chu, ACCA; and Guruprasad Jambunathan, FRM
Construction and engineering are almost certainly first time, join the IoT revolution. One example is how the
the oldest industry we will explore in our investment capability for full and seamless integration with energy,
frameworks series, as it goes back to our fundamental need waste, and water management leads to reduced costs and
for shelter. In 4850 BC, our Neolithic ancestors constructed sped-up project timelines.
the Cairn of Barnenez, the world’s oldest-surviving
building. This prehistoric Parthenon is 72 metres long, 25
metres wide, and over 8 metres high – an impressive size
considering it took another 1,350 years to invent the wheel. TYING IT TOGETHER WITH PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
Jump to the present, and the industry is being revolutionised Most analytics are descriptive, making past data
by technological advancement, albeit in a more subtle actionable. This is insightful but of little use in forecasting.
way than the progression from wooden hovels to steel For that, we turn to predictive analytics, which attempts
skyscrapers. to make robust forecasts using techniques including
statistical modelling and machine learning.
This shift, termed “Industry 4.0,” is more akin to the changes
already happening in the finance and insurance space In construction and engineering, this has several
(fintech and insurtech). As such, elements of this guide may applications. One example is customised solutions
seem familiar, though definitely different in application. We to clients, while another is enhanced 3D-modelling
will first examine the changes taking place in the industry, capabilities for housing developments, permitting crystal-
as these will lay the foundation for company analysis. clear communication with residents and investors.
There is also Building Information Monitoring (BIM),
which enables more effective deployment of modular
IT’S ALL ABOUT DATA design. With this, specific building components can be
constructed offsite in safer and more cost-effective
Construction and engineering companies are quickly environments. Lastly, there’s waste minimisation stemming
realising they can enhance product and service delivery from the continuous feedback loops from all aspects of
through data-based services. This is taking a couple of the project.
forms. First, data-based services allow automated yet
closer interaction with end users. This enables the archiving
of massive databanks at affordable cost. Second, drone
surveillance technologies permit improved data collection FUNDAMENTALS AMID A CHANGING LANDSCAPE
abilities, leading to closer-at-heart project planning, design,
and execution. Or put simply, better decision-making from This technological evolution will create more efficient,
more objective data. This combination lets companies lower-cost companies. Those unwilling or unable to
monitor real estate over their entire life cycle instead of just leverage on this may soon find themselves in the
the construction phase, while also generating a wealth of Darwinian scrapheap. The changes happening in the
useful analytics for future projects. sector, particularly its strong interlinking with the IoT
revolution, might pose a challenge for investors seeking a
clearer picture. However, there remains a systematic way
of analysing the industry – after all, it is still very much a
JOINING THE INTERNET OF THINGS bricks-and-mortar business.
The Internet of Things (IoT) revolution is very new and has

only recently become part of the modern lexicon. With the
development of advanced gadgets, such as built-in sensors
and smart home devices, the industry can now, for the

CATEGORISING BY SERVICES AND MARKETS Don’t forget the currency mix – forex volatility can wreak
havoc on already thin margins. Also, scrutinise billing
With so many different subcategories within the sector, practices, things like how revenue is tied to percentage
step one is determining the type of services a company completion or costs incurred versus costs remaining.
offers and which market it serves. Is it a residential or
non-residential construction company or an engineering
services company? Keep in mind many firms are involved
in a combination of two or more. THE OPERATION OF THE MACHINE
After identifying the firm’s end markets, assess their Revenue and profits don’t tell the whole story. Proper
structure, starting with the market share of the top working capital management is crucial to surviving in
providers split by services and end markets. Given its this industry. Research how a company raises its working
capital-intensive nature, construction typically has high capital and its weighted average cost. Are these costs
barriers to entry, which could be even higher depending on expected to increase? How sensitive are they to interest
local regulations. and forex volatility?
A company’s order book is as critical as its financials. Find
out its size, and how much of it is backlogged. Again, the
MATCHING MARKETS TO DEMAND DRIVERS mix between services, markets, regions, and currency
must be studied, with the added aspect of completion
Demand drivers within the industry will also be varied. schedules as well. Get a picture of the future order book by
While some factors like capacity utilisation rates, gross looking at the pipeline that feeds into it: What percentage
fixed capital formation rates, and demand cyclicality historically converts into concrete orders?
cut across all markets, each type of market has its own
specific demand drivers. For instance, in the residential A simple look at historical performance can reveal a lot.
market, they will be factors like house prices and income Vet its track record: Has the company generally delivered
levels, home ownership rates, consumer confidence, and its projects on schedule? If not, review the significance of
ease of home financing. these overruns and their implications.
For commercial markets, explore office vacancy rates and
corporate infrastructure spending trends. Government
demand is heavily influenced by economic policy, so study
government spending statistics and legislative mandates
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS
on infrastructure spending. In Singapore, for example, the According to the International Energy Agency, the
public sector has, in recent years, made up the lion’s share construction industry accounts for 36% of global energy
of industry demand. consumption and 40% of total CO2 emissions. Concrete,
the foundation of the industry, is the most widely used
material in the world with adverse environmental impacts.
As such, ESG factors will increasingly play a critical role in
THE FINANCIAL FOUNDATIONS
forming a company’s reputation.
Construction industry margins are notoriously low, making
Analysing ESG factors comes down to a few key areas.
cost structure paramount. As such, you must closely
Has the company taken any initiatives in improving energy
inspect a company’s books. Identify its main contract types
efficiency? Has it implemented any environmentally
– for example, are they cost plus, fixed price, or target price
sustainable practices and encouraged its clients and
– and learn the benefits and drawbacks of each.
suppliers to do the same? On the social front, see if it has
Next, consider the firm’s top and bottom lined. Examine undertaken any community service initiatives.
the revenue and profit split between services, markets,
Also determine if staff safety and welfare is emphasised.
and regions, and look for variations in margins. For cost
Were there efforts to improve gender diversity? Finally,
structure, investigate the major cost components and
establish if there have been any accusations of corruption
benchmark them against peers. Furthermore, see if any
or kickbacks, and if processes like proper procurement
of the technologies discussed here are being used to
procedures and robust tender procedures are present.
enhance cost efficiency.

LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY Finally, we have regulation-driven factors, which are
highly affected by themes. These include climate change,
Last, consider long-term demand drivers, because these energy efficiency, renewable energy, and environmental
structural demand drivers will influence the shorter- quality. All these could trigger legislative and regulatory
term ones. We can split these into three categories: mandates, so determine whether such mandates would
investment-driven, consumption-driven, and regulation- be positive or negative for a company.
driven.
This framework is intended to give you the building
Investment-driven factors encompass metrics such as blocks for analysing the construction and engineering
the investment share of GDP in the relevant markets and sector. Keep building upon it, and you will soon be
the investment mix among the various sectors. Among sufficiently equipped to construct your own portfolio.
these sectors, assess where future growth is expected
to be derived.
For consumption-driven factors, look at the consumption
share of GDP. Research the per capita availability and
consumption of the various infrastructure facilities and
services. Examples are the transportation, energy, and
housing sectors. Again, study which ones are most likely
to drive future growth.
About the Authors

Alan Lok, CFA, is the director for society advocacy engagement at CFA Institute. Mr Lok researches and writes on investor-
protection issues and capital-market structure. He recently co-authored a research paper on capital-market integrity entitled
“Portfolio Pumping in Singapore: Myth or Reality.” Mr Lok has more than 10 years of experience in equity research spanning
corporation and presently heads the policy function of ACCA Hong Kong.
Guruprasad Jambunathan, FRM, is a director for financial research at CRISIL, a global analytical company. He has over 12 years of
experience in equity research and works closely with a broad clientele of buy-side and sell-side firms, as well as with academic
think tanks across various continents.
and CRISIL, entitled “Sector Analysis: An Investors Framework.” The excerpt is printed here with permission from the three
organisations. A full version of the research will be published on CFA Institute Asia-Pacific Research Exchange at www.ARX.cfa.

02
MARKET
POSITION Share of top
providers by services,
Capital
03 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
end markets and
01 DEMAND regions requirements
DRIVERS
Climate Energy Renewable Environmental
change efficiency energy quality
Regulatory
barriers
Capacity Gross fixed
utilisation capital Demand Investment
rates formation rates cyclicality mix
Investment share Consumption Per capita
of GDP in relevant share availability and
08 GOVERNMENT AND
MILITARY MARKETS
markets of GDP consumption
for infrastructure
ENGINEERING
& CONSTRUCTION
04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
Government Legislative mandates Economic A step-by-step guide
spending on infrastructure stimulus to analyzing the engineering
statistics spending packages and construction industry
Revenue, profit, Cost Forex volatility
07
and margins structure sensitivity
COMMERCIAL AND
INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
05
Working capital Order book Project overruns
and the weighted to CAPEX and cost
average cost of capital ratio implications
Corporate infrastructure Capacity Office vacancy
spending trends utilisation rates rates ESG
FACTORS
06
RESIDENTIAL
Order book
pipeline and
historical
Order book size,
growth rate,
Household Credit MARKET Energy efficiency Environmentally
conversion rate and backlog
debt levels environment initiatives sustainable practices
Contract types Billing practices

Household House prices Average
formation rate versus income levels household size Community Corruption-free Labour track
service initiatives track record record


Engineering and Construction Services
1. What are the services provided by the company? 4. What are the demand drivers for services to the
commercial and industrial markets?
a. What services does the company provide: engineering
services (planning, design, programme management, a. What are the office vacancy rates?
operations, maintenance etc.), residential construction b. What are the trends in discretionary corporate spending
and non-residential construction)? on buildings and other infrastructural facilities?
b. Which are the end markets: housing, offices, c. How do the current levels of capacity utilisation rate
academic facilities, social and recreational, and capex spending compare with historical trends in
healthcare, oil & gas, transportation, power different industries?
generation, utilities, mining, environmental services,
industrial infrastructure, military infrastructure, non-
military government infrastructure etc.? 5. What are the demand drivers for services to the
government and military markets?
2. What factors drive demand for the company’s services? a. How much is the government spending on
infrastructure, as a percentage of GDP?
a. What are the capacity utilisation rates in various
b. Are there any economic or sector stimulus packages
end markets?
currently in operation or expected in near future?
b. What is the Gross Fixed Capital Formation rate?
c. What are the existing or upcoming legislative mandates
c. What are the consumption and investment shares of GDP? on infrastructure spending?
How is the mix evolving?
d. Are there any plans to increase deployments or expand
d. What is the extent of cyclicality and seasonality in demand logistics by the military?
for the company’s services?
6. What factors determining pricing and billing rates of
3. What are the demand drivers for the company’s your services?
services to the residential market?
d. What is the mix by different contract types: Cost Plus,
a. What is the average household size and household Fixed Price, Target Price, Time and Materials?
formation rate in the company’s key markets?
b. What are the relative benefits and drawbacks of the
b. What are the urbanisation, immigration and home different contract types?
ownership rates in the key markets?
c. Based on services provided and end markets served,
c. How do house prices compare with income levels? which contract types are more beneficial?
d. What are the household debt levels? What proportion
of this is from residential mortgages?
7. What is the mix of revenue and profits?
e. How favourable is the regulatory environment for
growth of the housing finance market? a. What is the mix of revenue and profits by services,
end markets and regions?
f. How prevalent is housing finance and how easy is it to
obtain home loans? b. How do the margins vary by services, end markets
and regions?
g. How stringent are the down payment requirements
and credit assessment norms? c. What is the extent of risk the company is exposed to,
by different services, end markets and regions?
h. Are there any tax benefits to investors, builders and
funders of housing? d. What is the currency mix of revenue and profits?
i. What are the trends in building permit issuances,
housing starts and home inventories? 8. What are the details of the company’s book of business?
j. How correlated are consumer confidence and a. What is the size of order book and backlog?
employment conditions with building permit
b. What is the mix of the order book by type of
issuances, housing starts and inventories?
services, end markets and regions, currency and by
completion schedule?
c. What is the size and details of option years held?
d. What is the size of the company’s pipeline by type of
services, end market and regions, currency and by
completion schedule? What has been the pipeline to
order conversion rate historically?
9. What are the long-term drivers of the 13. What is the extent of market concentration? What are
company’s business? the key barriers to entry?
a. What are the themes (such as infrastructure a. What is the share of top 3 and top 5 providers by
development, renewable energy, nuclear power, natural services, end markets and regions?
gas, environmental and climate change legislation) that b. What are the factors facilitating or impeding entry of
are expected to drive business for the company’s services new players?
in the long term, in different end markets and regions?
c. What are the approvals and licences required? What is
b. What is the extent of structural growth expected from the ease and cost of getting these?
different services and end markets across regions?
d. How easy is it to get a skilled management team and
c. What is the company’s strategy to leverage new-age engineering and technical staff?
technologies such as 5D building information modelling,
e. Do any existing or proposed labour or immigration
reality mesh, digital high definition surveying, Internet of
regulations affect the company’s ability to bid, win or
Things and smart sensors?
execute projects in specific geographies?
d. To what extent is the company using, or planning to use,
new age building materials?
14. How has the company performed on operational
measures? How does the performance compare with
10. What are the investment-driven factors expected to that of peers? How are these expected to evolve?
influence structural demand?
a. What has been growth rate of company’s order book?
a. What is the investment share of GDP in the key markets? What are the details by type of services, end markets,
b. What is the sectoral (industry, transportation, energy regions and contract types?
etc.) mix of investments? b. What are the major components of cost of services?
c. Which are the sectors expected to drive future growth? c. How much is the employee and labour cost as a
percentage of total cost and revenue?
11. What are the consumption-driven factors expected to d. What is the revenue and profits per employee?
influence structural demand? e. Which services and end markets are the most profitable?
a. How much is the consumption share of GDP in the f. What is the share of fixed-price contracts in the
key markets? company’s order book, revenue and profits?
b. What is the per capita availability and consumption of g. What has been the extent of time overruns of the
various infrastructure facilities and services (such as company’s projects across services, end markets
transportation, energy, utilities, healthcare, housing and and regions?
recreation) in the key markets? h. What has been the financial implications of the overruns?
c. Which of these consumption factors are expected to
drive growth in future?
15. How does the company manage its working capital
(WC) requirements?
12. What are the regulation-driven factors expected to
a. What is the preferred mode of raising WC?
influence structural demand?
b. What is the currency mix of the company’s WC?
a. What are the existing, upcoming or expected legislative
c. What has been the company’s weighted average cost
and regulatory mandates on themes such as inclusive
of WC?
development, universal coverage, sustainability, climate
change, energy efficiency, renewable energy and d. How are the currency mix and cost of the WC expected
environmental quality? to evolve?
b. Which are the company’s services that are likely to e. What is the impact of interest rate changes and
benefit from these mandates? exchange rate volatility on the company’s WC cost and
margins thereupon?
c. How does the company’s current business and
capability profile compare with what will be in demand? f. Do some services, regions and contract types require
higher levels of working capital than others?

Environmental, Society and
Governance
16. How have the capacity utilisation rates been? 19. What are the details of the company’s ESG principles,
practice and track record?
a. How has the book-to-bill ratio trended?
b. What has been the order book to capex ratio? a. What is the company’s strategy, practices and track
record in reducing the energy intensity, water intensity,
c. What is the capex budget and spending plan for the next
emissions intensity, material consumption, waste
few years? What is the underlying strategy?
generation and overall environmental and ecological
d. Has the cash burn rate been consistent with footprint during execution of projects?
billing schedules?
b. How does the energy consumption, emission, water
e. Are there specific end markets or regions where there use and waste generation intensity during the normal
are significant delays between the time expenses are functioning of the buildings and other infrastructure
incurred and payments are received from clients? compare with industry benchmarks? What are the
initiatives taken to reduce these?
17. How is the credit worthiness of clients assessed? c. Does the company actively encourage and supports
clients to adopt sustainable practices during normal use
a. What is the credit profile of the clientele? What are the
of buildings and other facilities constructed by it?
details of the exposure of order book by end markets
and regions? d. When the projects entail demolition of built structures,
how much of the material is typically recovered? What is
b. How are delayed, partial and non-payments from
the procedure for handling recoveries and debris arising
clients managed?
from the demolition?
e. Where possible, are features suited to the local climate
18. How has the company performed on financial incorporated in projects?
measures? How do these compare with peers?
f. How much recycled, eco-friendly and locally sourced
How are these expected to evolve?
material are used in constructing buildings?
a. How has been the revenue growth? What is the g. Is the effect on biodiversity of projects located near
breakdown by services, end markets, regions, contract protected areas and areas of High Conservation Value
types and currency movements? (HCV) assessed prior to project execution?
b. How much of the revenue is tied to the percentage h. Has the company been involved in protection or restoration
completion billing arrangement? of any habitat critical for endangered species or of HCV?
c. How much of the revenue is billed on the costs incurred i. What has been the level of involvement in environmental
relative to the costs remaining basis? or biological remediation projects as part of the
d. In case of fixed price contracts, typically how much company’s sustainability initiatives?
of the project related out-of-pocket expenses are j. As part of community-service initiatives, what are the
reimbursed by clients? details of any investments, services and sharing of
e. What has been the company’s gross, operating and expertise provided for public benefit?
net margins? k. How has been the company’s track record regarding
f. What is the sensitivity of revenue and margins to the safety and fair treatment of labourers involved in
forex volatility? its projects? What is the total number of fatalities,
days lost and injuries in relation to total number of
personnel employed?
l. What is the proportion of total work sub-contracted
or outsourced? What is proportion of total number of
personnel employed and revenue generated?
m. How much is the typical spend on maintenance and
safety at the company’s offices and project sites?
n. Has the company faced accusations of indulging in
corruption and offering kickbacks to win projects?
o. What is the company’s policy and track record relating to
political donations?

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES
UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
SERVICES SECTOR
What do tackling climate change and succeeding in Consider the two subsectors we will focus on: solid
investing in risk assets over a longer term have in common? waste management and recovery/recycling. Solid waste
The answer: Our brains haven’t evolved to deal with either. management is the traditional staple of the broader sector
We are hardwired to be short-term thinkers. Our hominid – a must for the modern metropolis. In 2017, the industry
minds remain the same as those of our ancestors. Primed was worth US$330 billion. By 2025, this figure is estimated
to be alert for imminent threats, we don’t have the fully to reach US$530 billion. In recent years, the proper disposal
refined instincts to respond to dangers looming in the future of pollutants has come to the fore. Indeed, the recycling
(maybe check back in a few million years). market was valued at around US$265 billion in 2017, and is
forecast to reach US$377 billion by 2024.
Then there’s the emotional factor. Spotting a wolf pacing
around the edge of the forest triggered a rush of fear so Taken together, that’s close to a trillion-dollar industry in
intense that our forefathers sprinted away. No higher-level under a decade. It might seem surprisingly high until you
prefrontal cortex thinking was required. Our emotions are consider that the world’s cities generated over 2 billion
best adapted for life as once lived. tonnes of solid waste in 2016, a figure expected to hit
almost 3.5 billion tonnes by 2050.
Our technological and societal progress has since raced
past our evolutionary environment, and we haven’t had time So, rather than be overly pious, we will instead give you a
to catch up. The pitfalls of our biological tendency towards systematic framework for analysing this valuable, growing,
short-term thinking and emotional are well-known in the and indispensable sector.
investment community – a common trait being missing out
on gains from long-term investing. We will begin by helping you to understand how the industry
is defined.
Such parallels can easily be seen in how we think about
climate change and environmental issues in general.
DEFINING AND CATEGORISING THE INDUSTRY

Unlike the previous industries we have explored, there
AN IMPORTANT YET UNINSPIRING ISSUE is no clear consensus on the boundaries of what are
Despite the doubtless passion of activists like Greta environmental services. Depending on who you ask,
Thunberg, who protested outside the Swedish parliament at subsets like pollution control, water treatment, and
the age of 15 and started the international “school strike for environmental services engineering may also be included.
climate” movement, the fact is, change in weather patterns
Whatever these confines are, both solid waste management
does not trigger strong emotions. As we have observed,
and recovery and recycling are well within them, which is
any long-term scenario won’t necessarily spark immediate
why they form the centrepiece of our sector analysis.
emotions in our brains.
The first step is to categorise these two subsectors. Within
Fortunately, however, our awareness is increasing, with 97%
the solid waste management segment, determine the
of climate scientists agreeing that temperatures are moving
type of waste a company handles. It might be municipal
higher. Governments and corporations are increasingly
solid waste (MSW), better known as rubbish/trash/
taking measures to help preserve the environment. Perhaps
garbage – industrial, hazardous, agricultural, biomedical,
there is hope for us yet. or a combination of these. Remember that regulations vary
by type of solid waste. On the service level, research what
the company offers: Does it cover the full spectrum of
collection, aggregation, transfer, storage, and disposal, or
STUDYING THE INVESTMENT CLIMATE just part of it?
However, we are not here to preach from a pulpit. You see,
this growing awareness of climate change and environmental
issues also creates corresponding investment opportunities.
If a company is in the recovery and recycling space, again, From a competitive perspective, assess how regulations
look at the type of excess it deals with – for example, could turn a market’s barriers to entry. Is it difficult,
plastics, construction debris, e-waste, or organic waste. expensive, or time-consuming to obtain the necessary
You should pay particular attention if it handles e-waste approvals and permits? Capital requirements are another
or hazardous materials, as it typically means heavier roadblock, so measure the amount of investment typically
regulatory scrutiny. required.
Within such assessments, establish the firm’s end Then there’s the competition. Ascertain the market
customers for each of its services. Also, keep in mind that share of the top three or five players in the industry.
since solid waste management and recovery and recycling Are you looking at an oligopolistic market, or is it more
can be linked in a single end-to-end process, you may find competitive? In such a capital-intensive and regulation-
some companies which straddle both these areas. Because heavy industry, large and entrenched competition may
of this possible interlinking, both subsectors have many prove an insurmountable barrier.
demand drivers in common.
FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL MEASURES

THE DEMAND EQUATION
Moving on, start with the standard financial inquiries.
The top-line demand equation is simple: The more waste Review revenue growth and gross, operating, and net
generated, the higher the need for environmental services. margins, as well as free cash flow metrics, not forgetting
While the drivers may be similar across markets, there might to benchmark these against peers. Split these metrics
be different growth factors for the various types of excess. according to the waste profile and type of services offered
Study what may be causing an upturn in waste generation by the company for a more detailed picture of its financial
in a company’s markets split by category. Then, examine performance. For instance, solid waste managers may use
how they would affect the demand for a firm’s specific several disposal methods – incineration, recycling, and
services. third-party removal, among others. How much revenue and
profit does each method generate?
Beyond the amount of waste created in an individual
market, you must also take population and regulatory Operational metrics differ depending on the company’s
sentiment into account. What is the general public’s view on subsector. For solid waste management businesses, learn
environmental issues? Do they take personal responsibility, about growth trends in the number of customers served
or do attitudes lean more towards relegating responsibility and volume of waste managed. For recycling and recovery
solely to the government? firms, look at growth trends in recycled materials, the
recovery rate of recyclates, as well as unit prices. For both
On the political and regulatory side, examine where the types of companies, probe into whether they have any
company’s operating facilities are located and what advantage, whether technological, regulatory, or otherwise,
jurisdictions they cover. Investigate whether each relevant that may give them an edge over their competition.
government prioritises sustainable waste generation
and management. See if it has enacted policies such as
mandatory disclosure on emissions, and environmental,
healthy, and safety (EHS) spending. Remember, talk is ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS
cheap. What matters is if a country’s politicians have the
will to implement and enforce long-term plans that may In many ways, environmental, social, and governance (ESG)
inconvenience the populace in the short run. initiatives by firms in other sectors are the environmental
services industry’s rice bowl. The growing trend of stricter
ESG regulations around the world as a result of increasing
environmental awareness is thus a boon.
GRASPING MARKET STRUCTURE
This does not mean the sector itself is spared from ESG
Market structure also varies. Starting with the regulatory scrutiny. In fact, environmentally focused companies should
landscape, find out what kind of controls apply to the come under heavier inspection (and they usually are).
industry. Since we’re talking about solid waste and First, gauge the footprint of the business: What is its track
recycling, look up the rules on landfill, importation, and record in reducing energy and emissions intensity? Given
transportation. With regard to landfill, review aspects the nature of the industry, this is likely directly linked to its
such as closure and post-closure requirements as well as operating model (i.e., its primary disposal methods).
capacity rules.
Have there been any incidents of leakages or accidents Zooming in a little, inspect the GDP share of industries
resulting in environmental damage? What about corruption which generate a high volume of waste. This includes
and kickbacks in winning projects and measures in manufacturing, agriculture, thermal power generation, and
preventing such practices (recall that in the United States, mining. What are their projected growth trends? Finally,
the mob was once heavily involved in the garbage collection bear in mind the impact of technology – size up how clean
business)? Don’t forget to explore the company’s track production technologies might evolve and the effects they
record on the fair treatment and safety of its workers. might have.
In terms of glamour, a study of solid waste management
and recycling companies can’t be compared to a review
THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CLIMATE of, say, the luxury goods sector, but it is a necessary and
growing space with real investment opportunities. So,
Given that people tend to falsely conflate the weather eschew your city shoes, don a pair of rubber boots, and get
(short-term) with the climate (long-term), we cannot afford stuck in!
to neglect the bigger picture when analysing this industry.
On a general level, survey population growth, consumption,
and urbanisation trends to visualise the future. Study
per capita waste generation figures and the correlation
between economic growth and waste generation in
individual markets.
About the Authors

Alan Lok, CFA, is the director of society advocacy engagement at CFA Institute. Mr Lok researches and writes on investor-
“Portfolio Pumping in Singapore: Myth or Reality.” Mr Lok has more than 10 years of equity research experience spanning various
industries and sectors.
Chan Fook Leong, CFA, is the executive director of advocacy at CFA Society Singapore. He writes and researches on ethical
issues, market integrity, financial literacy, and investor protection topics.

02
MARKET 03 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
01
Competitor Capital
POSITION market share requirements
DEMAND DRIVERS
Population Consumption Urbanisation Evolving
Ease of regulatory growth trends trends trends regulations
approvals
Profile of Population
Waste generated sentiment on
generation waste environment Use of more Net cost Food
growth factors sustainable of waste consumption
materials management patterns
Regulatory Waste disposal

requirements technology
ENVIRONMENTAL
SERVICES
07
Growth trends of Technological
A step-by-step guide to waste-generating industries improvements
analyzing the environmental
services industry
RECOVERY AND
RECYCLING COMPANIES 04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
Source of raw Prices of

materials recyclates
Recycling and
recovery rate
06 Revenue Gross, Free cash Volume
SOLID WASTE growth operating, and flow growth
MANAGERS net margins generation trends
05 ESG FACTORS
Types of waste Fees Geographic Collection
handled and charged profile rate
disposal methods
Energy and Environmental Safety track Labour track Corruption/
emissions certifications record record ethical track
reduction record
Internalisation Fuel Route
rate costs density

Common to the sector
1. DD: What are the services provided by the company? 4. DD: What are the regulatory factors driving demand for
environmental services?
a. What are the various services provided by the company:
waste collection, aggregation, transportation, disposal, a. What are the details of emissions and waste generation
recovery, recycling, waste to energy, safe storage etc.? that businesses and industries are required to disclose
b. What are the types of waste dealt with, by potential for about with their operations?
environmental impact: municipal solid waste (MSW), b. Are there any mandates or disclosure requirements on
hazardous waste, non-hazardous, biomedical waste, EHS spending by businesses and industries?
E-waste etc.? c. What is the extent of Environmental, health and safety
c. What are the services provided by the company, by (EHS) spending by households, businesses, industries
method of disposal: composting, recycling, incineration, and the government?
compacting, dumping in landfills, safe storage etc.? d. How strong is the enforcement of various regulations
d. Does the company handle both organic and governing waste management?
inorganic waste?
e. Which are the end markets served, by the originator of 5. SI: What are the structural factors influencing demand
waste: household, commercial, municipal governmental, in the company’s key markets?
industrial, biomedical etc.?
a. What are the trends in population growth, consumption
f. Does the company offer clean production solutions
and urbanization?
aimed at waste reduction and pollution control?
b. How many mega cities exist in the company’s key
g. Does the company provide environmental protection and
markets? How many are expected to be there in future?
remediation services?
c. What is the per capita generation of different types
of waste?
2. DD: What are the drivers of demand for
d. What is the correlation between economic growth and
environmental services?
waste generation intensity?
a. What are the factors causing growth in waste generation? e. How does the net cost (after recovering useful material
b. How is the profile of waste generated evolving: and energy) of waste management compare with the per
proportion of organic waste is increasing, more non- capita GDP and income levels?
biodegradable waste is generated, more hazardous
waste is generated etc.?
6. SI: What are the changes in patterns of food
c. How aware, sensitive and active is the population about consumption that drive increase in generation of
environmental issues in general? packaging waste?
d. How does the population view the impact of unsustainable
a. Is the share of processed, packaged, ready to
waste generation and management practices?
cook and ready to eat foods in the total food
e. How do differences in technology (between methods of consumption increasing?
disposal, between countries, and over time) influence
b. How does the growth in meal take-away and
the supply conditions in the industry?
delivery services compare with the growth in total
food consumption?
3. DD: What is the profile of consumers? c. Which materials are used for food packaging currently?
a. Who are the consumers for the various services? Is there a shift to using more biodegradable or
recyclable material?
b. What is the mix of revenues and profits by various
services and consumer types? d. What is the share of food waste in the total amount of
waste generated?
7. SI: What are the cultural and behavioural factors 10. MP: What are the environmental, public health and
influencing the business? safety related challenges and regulations related with
landfills and other waste management facilities?
a. How does the population view the issues of
cleanliness and waste management? a. How does the current capacity of landfills compare with
b. Do people consider waste management as a shared current and future requirements?
responsibility or as the responsibility of government/ b. What are the legal and regulatory requirements
civic bodies or private entities? governing the siting and running of landfills?
c. Do practices of source segregation and decentralised c. What are the liner and leachate collection and removal
management of waste get support from consumers? requirements governing landfills and other facilities?
d. How strong is the Not In My Backyard sentiment? Do d. What are the requirements regarding monitoring of
the communities near existing or proposed waste groundwater near landfills and other facilities?
management facilities and landfills strongly oppose e. What are the closure and post-closure requirements?
locating such facilities close to their neighbourhoods?
f. What are the hazards posed by natural disasters such
e. Are there informal networks of waste collectors and as cyclones, earthquakes, floods and earthquakes?
handlers? What are the details of efforts made at
professionalising and formalising those networks?
Are there moves to partner them for the larger goal of 11. MP: Where are the company’s waste management
responsible and sustainable waste management? facilities located? What are the geographical
restrictions on the movement of waste?
8. SI: What is the role of technology in the waste a. How we are the company’s facilities connected to the
management business? transportation infrastructure necessary to receive waste
collected and despatched from the generating points?
a. Which parts of the waste management ecosystem
b. Do the company’s facilities treat waste collected from
does the company see significant role for technology-
generators in the same jurisdiction (region or country)
enabled solutions (waste reduction, collection, sorting,
or from foreign jurisdictions?
processing etc.)?
c. How much of the waste managed by the company is
b. What are the details of any initiatives the company has
imported from other jurisdictions?
taken to leverage technology in its operations?
d. What is the legal, political and public perception of
such import of waste? Are there any proposals under
9. MP: What is the level of market concentration and consideration to restrict or prohibit such imports?
barriers to entry?
e. What are the various restrictions and regulations
a. What is the market share of Top 3 / Top 5 waste governing transportation and transfer of solid waste?
management service providers?
b. How difficult, expensive and time consuming is it to get 12. PM: How has been the company’s performance on
the requisite approvals and permits? financial measures? How does that compare with
c. What is the typical capital investments needed to serve a peers and expected to evolve?
certain size of customers?
a. What has been the revenue growth of the company?
d. Does the company possess any unique technology or
b. What has been the gross, operating and net margins?
processes that gives it an edge over competition?
c. How much free cash flow the company generates, as a
percentage of revenues?
Solid Waste Managers
13. DD: What are the various types of MSW handled by 17. SI: What are the structural factors influencing the solid
the company? waste management business?
a. What is the mix of amount waste handled by different a. What is the share of process and manufacturing
types: hazardous vs non-hazardous, municipal vs industries in the GDP of countries where the company
industrial vs biomedical, organic vs inorganic, corrosive, operates? How is this evolving?
toxic, radioactive etc.? b. What is the current state and prospects of industries
b. What are the various services offered by the company: such as nuclear power generation, electronic
collection, aggregation, transfer, storage, disposal? manufacturing, solar panel manufacturing, chemicals,
pharma etc., that generate high levels of hazardous
solid waste?
14. DD: What are the details of MSW handled by
the company? c. What are the growth trends of industries such
as agriculture, thermal power generation, mining,
a. Does the company offer end-to-end services or quarrying etc. that generate high levels of non-
operates in parts of the chain? hazardous solid waste?
b. What is the geographic profile of the markets served d. How are clean production technologies evolving? How is
by the company: urban, semi-urban or rural? that likely to affect waste generation intensity?
c. What is the collection rate (waste collected as a
percentage of waste generated) in the areas where
18. MP: What is the regulatory structure of the solid waste
the company operates?
management industry?
a. Which agency regulates the activity?
15. DD: What are various disposal methods of MSW used
by the company? How much revenue is generated from b. How many licences / contracts are granted in each area
each method? for MSW collection and handling?
c. How are the licences / contracts granted and for how long?
a. What proportion of the waste collected is disposed in
different ways: compacted and dumped in landfills, d. What is the typical duration of the contracts that the
composted, recycled, incinerated or sold to third parties company holds?
for further processing? e. In case of multiple licences, how many service providers
b. What is the fee charged by the company for waste does the company compete with? Is there overlap in
collection, aggregation and transfer, per unit of waste? areas served?
c. What is the rate of tipping / gate fee charged by the f. Does the company have exclusive licences / contracts in
company at its landfills? any areas?
g. What is the revenue sharing arrangement with the
contracting agencies?
16. DD: What are the details of industrial solid waste
handled by the company? h. Does the company own the landfill sites or depends
on others?
a. What are the different types of industrial waste handled
i. What are the regulations governing charging of tipping /
by the company: organic vs inorganic, hazardous vs
gate fee? How is it determined?
non-hazardous etc.?
b. What is the profile of the hazardous waste: toxic,
flammable, corrosive, radioactive, explosive etc.? 19. PM: How has been the company’s performance on
operational measures? How does that compare with
c. How is the waste material collected?
peers and expected to evolve?
d. Which are the industries the generators of solid waste
operate in: oil & gas, chemicals, farm inputs, metals and a. What has been growth trends in the number of
mining, pharma etc.? customers served and volume of waste managed?
e. What are the disposal methods used: underground b. How close to each other are the waste generators located?
injection, landfill and treatment, incineration, c. What is the route density (tonnes of waste collected per km
composting, dumping and incineration at sea? of collection route) of the company’s collection operations?
d. What has been the internalization rate (percentage of
waste disposed in own landfills) of the company?
e. How has average waste handling charges per unit evolved?
f. What is the share of fuel costs as a percentage of total
costs and revenues?
Recovery and Recycling Services
20. DD: What are the details of industrial solid waste c. What drives demand for waste to energy services:
handled by the company? paucity of suitable land fill sites due to growing waste
volumes and competing land uses, sustainability
a. What are the different types of waste from which
issues surrounding landfilling, leakage from landfills
the company recovers material or recycles: plastics,
and resultant impact on the environment, methane gas
construction debris, e-waste, organic and food waste etc.?
emissions from landfills etc.?
b. Does the company recycle both hazardous and non-
hazardous waste?
24. DD: Does the company handles e-waste?
c. Where, how and in what quantities are these
wastes generated? a. What factors drives availability and collection of
d. How is the raw waste material sourced? Is it sourced e-waste? Are there mandates for electronic device
locally, domestically or imported from foreign countries? makers to offer collection services to end users?
Does the company collect them directly from generators or b. What is the impact of the increasing penetration and
buys from other companies which collect from generators? shortening upgrade cycles of electronic gadgets on
generation of e-waste?
21. DD: What are the factors influencing supply of raw c. How does the company sources e-waste?
material for recycling and recovery? d. Does the company refurbishes previously used
electronic equipment and resells them?
a. What are the trends in generation of different materials
that the company uses as raw material for recycling e. How does the company ensure all user data in the
and recovery? devices are erased before reselling?
b. What are the regulatory, consumption or technology f. Where refurbishing is not feasible, what are the various
driven factors affecting generation of waste used by material does the company recovers?
the company?
c. How are technological advancements like single- and 25. DD: What are the prices of recyclates?
dual-stream recycling, co-mingled recycling and
a. How does the price of energy generated from waste
all-in-one mixed-waste processing driving demand
compares with energy from various other sources?
by reducing need for segregation at source by the
generator of waste? b. What are the prices realised for various recyclates (such
as fuel and polyester yarn from plastic waste, precious
d. What is the likely result of increasing adoption of
metals from e-waste etc.) produced by the company?
sustainable building materials and reduction of waste at
construction site, driven by the Leadership in Energy and c. How much prices do refurbished electronic
Environmental Design (LEED) framework of the United devices command?
States Green Building Council (USGBC)?
26. SI: What is the recycling and recovery rate in the
22. DD: What are the factors driving demand for material company’s key markets?
recovery recycling services? a. What proportion of different types of waste are
a. What are the legislative, regulatory or voluntarily recycled / recovered (recycling rate)?
adopted mandates for use of material such as recycled b. How does the recycling rate in the areas where the
paper and packaging and post-consumer plastics? company operates compare with national, regional and
b. What are the regulations governing recovery or reuse global trends?
of demolition and construction debris? c. How does the company expect the recycling rate
c. What are the evolving consumer preferences that are to evolve?
driving demand for recycling services?
27. PM: How has been the company’s performance on
23. DD: What are the factors driving demand for waste to operational measures? How does that compare with
energy generation services? peers and expected to evolve?
a. What is the share of biogenic (food and farm waste) a. What has been growth trends in the volume of material
waste in the total waste generated? recycled by the company?
b. What is the heat content of the typical kinds of non- b. What has been the recovery rate of recyclates from raw
biogenic (e.g. plastics and metals) waste generated? waste, for different types of waste?
c. How have the unit prices of recyclates and
energy evolved?
Governance
28. What are the company’s ESG principles, practice and
track record?
a. What is the company’s strategy, practices and track
emissions intensity, waste generation and overall
environmental and ecological footprint of the services
and operations?
b. What are the steps taken by the company to promote
sustainable practices by waste generators?
c. What proportion of the sites operated by the company
have environmental management certification such as
ISO 14001?
d. How many incidents of leakages or other accidents
resulting in damage to the environment has
the company faced? What are the details and
consequences of such incidents?
e. What is the proportion of total work sub-contracted
or outsourced? What is proportion of total number of
personnel employed and revenue generated?
f. How has been the company’s track record regarding
the safety and fair treatment of labourers involved in
its projects? What is the total number of fatalities,
personnel employed?
g. How much is the typical spend on maintenance and
safety at the company’s offices and project sites?
h. Has the company faced accusations of indulging in
corruption and offering kickbacks to win projects?
i. What measures does the company undertakes to
prevent corruption and bribery in the context of
contracting with public organisations and governments?
j. What is the company’s policy and track record relating
to political donations?

FOOD PRODUCERS
“PLEASE, SIR, I WANT SOME MORE” –
UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS OF FOOD PRODUCERS
It is the essential thing that magnetically pulls us from our BUMPER HARVEST?
desks at midday, soothes family disagreements, or keeps
us happy while watching a box-set at the weekend. We The problem of food wastage is spreading from the United
are talking about food. Behind all those sweet and savoury States and Europe to Asia; Singapore alone discards around
pleasures lies a peculiar and sometimes complex industry 800,000 tonnes yearly. From an environmental perspective,
– food producers. it’s worth contemplating the amount of energy required
to produce all this discarded food: The industry is highly
While most sectors are affected by a finite number of resource-intensive. In addition, we have a habit of burying
factors, food production faces a broader range of issues. At unwanted food, which decomposes and releases methane
its heart is non-discretionary demand – namely, the need into the atmosphere.
for us to eat. However, it is not quite so straightforward.
As we radiate from the centre, the picture becomes more That said, we may simultaneously face a future in which
complicated, and it is this sinuosity that we want to help demand outpaces supply from production hampered
you understand. by a combination of change in climate, economics, and
demographics. Global warming could affect water and
It might be helpful to think of this framework in terms of energy supplies. In terms of economics, it may no longer
packaging. The steady and reliable non-discretionary core be profitable to produce certain crops if the numbers don’t
(the food itself) is encased in several layers (factors) that add up. Also, the global population is expected to exceed 10
deserve further examination. billion before the end of the 21st century, with the increase
coming mainly from developing countries.
Interestingly, there are investment avenues to be explored
A CHANGING PALATE with both over- and underproduction. The waste technology
industry, although still relatively small, is growing in
Such wrappings include the changing tastes of the importance as startups seek ways to recycle unused food,
developing world, where traditional staples are declining for example as by-products for the agricultural sector.
in popularity as households develop an appetite for, Meanwhile, many companies are finding innovative ways to
among other things, wheat-based products, meat, or increase output and tackle production shortfalls.
dairy. Simultaneously, some in the developed world are
renouncing their steaks and ice cream in favour of lower-
fat poultry and fresh fruit. Tied to this is the expansion of
the organic food movement, which registered sales in the
United States of almost US$50 billion in 2017. This growth
was six times faster than that of the broader food market
and is being led by millennials, who now make up 52% of
organic consumers. If you want a glimpse of future trends,
then it’s worth paying attention to the eating habits of
different generations across different countries.
FOOD PRODUCERS
INGREDIENTS IN THE MIX Of course, the retail channels play a vital role in influencing
the desire for a particular foodstuff. We have all seen
Food production is undoubtedly a multidimensional large displays of dry foods in the middle of supermarket
stakeholder sector, with criss-crossing relationships aisles. How much do these arrangements cost? In
a driving force behind innovation. Producers work with tandem, does the producer have a say about how its
processors, who in turn liaise with distributors and, finally, products are positioned and packaged by leading retail
retailers. Consumer power and views matter. The last chains? Increasingly, it is also important to examine the
thing this industry needs is a food scandal. Meanwhile, producer’s hold in the virtual world: Does it operate its own
as these strands interlace, the regulators are keeping a e-commerce channel or relies on third-party platforms to
watchful eye on developments. More recently, the role manage sales?
of non-governmental agencies has been added to the
mix, as regulators monitor how companies operate in the Look ahead as well. Investigate the issues or events that
developing world. will drive structural demand growth. How saturated is
per capita consumption of the company’s products in its
markets? Screen the anticipated incremental need for the
goods it sells and discover which goods are expected to
GRAB THE RHINO, SOUND THE HORN remain popular among customers. In addition, review the
firm’s business plan to see if the firm intends to enter new
In such a seemingly self-aware industry, there are still markets and understands the challenges it may face.
a few potential grey rhinos – the creeping megatrends
that industry stakeholders may not fully understand.
One such development is food delivery: the men and
women on motorbikes who tear around our cities. Food FOOD FADS
Panda, Deliveroo, and GrabFood (which has already
gobbled up Uber Eats) are becoming ubiquitous as we With a deeper understanding of the business, delve into
appear increasingly willing to tolerate tepid food to avoid the structure of the market(s) within which it operates.
venturing out. Fresh-food delivery is also on the rise, with How much competition does the company face? What are
supermarkets offering a minimum-spend for door-to-door the barriers to market entry? What is the company’s overall
service. Lastly, the arguments over genetically modified share of the market? And how significant is the threat from
food could justify a report of their own. private labels?
Next, find out what the firm’s customers think about its
brands and products. Have their opinions been influenced
CHEAP AS CHIPS? by product recalls or controversies relating to health
scares? Indeed, has the company ever faced regulatory
How, then, do we analyse the business viability of a food action for violating any food safety practices?
producer?
Innovation is another aspect to assess. Consider new
Let’s start by examining demand. This involves finding product launches and their frequency and study the steps
out how much of a company’s product portfolio can that are taken to ensure that these do not cannibalise
be classified as fully non-discretionary or moderately existing volumes. Lastly, think about the health of the
discretionary and asking about the mix of volumes and consumer and inquire about sugar- and fat-related
revenues between these categories. How do these regulations. Do they exist in the company’s markets? If not,
compare, and have any shifts in demand been identified or are there plans to introduce them?
predicted? From here, we can go on to explore the impact
of price changes on the company’s offerings. Does unit
demand alter when prices alter, and how does this affect
different products in various markets?
FOOD PRODUCERS
IS IT BAKED TO PERFECTION?
We have examined competition, so now look at the
company’s books to see how it has performed against its
peers. What are its margins and expense ratios? And do
remember cash flows.
Have organic volume growth rates been achieved?
Furthermore, check out the company’s investment
strategy and the extent to which input cost increases
can be passed on to customers. It is good to know if
the company’s supply chain is vulnerable to external
disruptions, such as geopolitical issues or natural
disasters.
Given the energy-intensive nature of food production, we
must pay particular attention to environmental, social, and
governance issues. Screen any investment that the firm
has made in recycling programmes or raising consumer
awareness about food wastage. Does the firm put profit
first or make an effort to treat its suppliers fairly? What’s
more, how much money is spent on minimising the release
of pollutants?
Ultimately, any company that can manage the multiple
stakeholder relationships, recognise changing customer
tastes, and keep an eye on the future will thrive. We
hope that the items on today’s menu have whetted your
appetite for a more in-depth study of the food production
industry and help you to decide if the business model of
a company is sustainable. If you want another helping, our
complete framework is available on www.arx.cfa. Log in
and feast.
About the Authors


FOOD PRODUCERS
02
MARKET
Market Competitor Strength of
concentration market share Private labels
levels
Barriers
to entry
Pricing power Retail network
compared concentration and
to scale pricing pressures
POSITION
01
DEMAND DRIVERS Food Product testing Food 03 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
labelling and approval constituent
regulations regulations based taxes
Discretionary Impact Saturation Anticipated Evolving

and non- of price of per-capita incremental culinary
discretionary mix changes consumption demand preferences
Price spectrum and demand
FOOD
Presence and Ecommerce Stock Keeping
PRODUCERS Increasing sugar and Private
A step-by-step guide Growth in fat content and tax labels
control of presence Unit strategy
to analyzing the eCommerce regulations trends
retail channel
food producers industry
Current food
attitudes
Marketing
strategy
Customer
perception
04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
05 ESG FACTORS Sales,

Product portfolio
diversity
Pricing
power
Accounts
receivable days
Supply Product general, and
chain risk innovation administrative
Health and nutrition Sustainable strategy expense ratio
product strategy supply practices
Development and Gross, operating, Retail channel
marketing costs and net margins costs
Fair Environmental Emissions and Amount Product Margin

treatment initiatives and consumption of input lifecycle sensitivity to
of suppliers practices reduction cost management commodity Organic volume Hedging New product
initiatives passthrough strategy prices growth strategies launch track record
and FX

FOOD PRODUCERS
Food Products
1. What impact do price changes have on the 4. What factors are expected to drive structural
company’s products? demand growth?
a. How does unit demand alter when prices change, and how a. How saturated are per-capita consumption and demand for
does this affect different products in various markets? the company’s products in markets in which it operates?
b. How effectively can the company pass cost increases b. How much incremental demand does the company
on without impacting demand for its products? anticipate due to increases in consumer expenditure?
c. How much does demand increase in response to price c. What products are likely to continue to see per-capita
reductions? Are additional volumes sufficient to cover demand growth?
lower revenue per unit due to the price reduction? d. What new product types are expected to see
d. Does the company offer products across the price strong demand?
spectrum in the same category or sub-category? e. How does the company propose to drive structural
e. What is the company’s stock keeping unit (SKU) growth? Does the company intend entering new
strategy? How many different package sizes are markets or product segments? If so, what challenges
typically offered in each product? are anticipated?
f. How does the company ensure smaller SKUs do not
cannibalize larger SKUs? 5. How are the culinary preferences of customers in key
g. Does the company actively try to persuade customers markets evolving?
to down-trade or up-trade to avoid losing share of their
a. Are significant changes occurring in customer
total spending? If so, how successful have these efforts
culinary preferences?
been in the past?
b. If so, what are these changes? What is the impact on
the market and to the company’s product portfolio?
2. What proportion of the company’s products could be
c. How does the company intend to leverage
described as discretionary?
these opportunities?
a. How much of the product portfolio can be classified as fully
non-discretionary versus moderately discretionary?
6. What is the impact of changes in customers’
b. What is the mix of volumes and revenues between these food attitudes?
categories? How do the margins compare?
a. From a health perspective, what are consumers’
c. Are customers reducing product consumption in
perceptions towards packaged and processed food?
any category or sub-category where the company has
a presence? b. How are these trends evolving? How important is the
perception of convenience in softening the impact from
d. If so, what are these sub-categories? What products
any negative attitudes?
are customers buying instead? Does the company offer
products in the replacement sub-category? c. What kind of foods do customers consider healthy? Has
the company observed a significant increase in demand
e. How are these demand shifts identified or predicted?
for fresh, natural and organic foods?
d. How is the company’s product portfolio being affected
3. What is the role of the retail channel in influencing by these trends?
demand for the company’s products?
e. How does the company intend to manage potential
a. How extensive is the company’s presence in the retail impacts? Are any measures being implemented to
channel in its key markets? leverage these opportunities?
b. How much presence do the company’s products have on
the shelves of leading retail chains? 7. What is the impact of private label products?
c. How much increase in demand is observed from rises in
a. What is the market share of private labels in key product
shelf space presence?
offerings? How is this trend evolving?
d. What is the impact of a reduction in shelf space presence?
b. How much brand power does the company have to help
e. How much control/influence does the company have on compete against private labels?
the size and positioning of shelf space? Are some retailers
c. How is this affecting relationships with retailers?
more favorably inclined to the company than others? If so,
what costs are associated with these favors? d. How much impact is anticipated from the proliferation of
private label products? How does the company plan on
managing this?
FOOD PRODUCERS
8. What is the impact of e-commerce growth? 11. Relationships with retailers.

a. What is the share of e-commerce in the food and a. How fragmented or concentrated is the retail network in
grocery segment in key markets? the company’s key markets?
b. How does the company expect this to evolve in b. How concentrated or diversified is the company’s sales
future? What challenges are being presented as a exposure to different retailers?
result of this evolution? c. Who are the top-three and top-five retailers in the
c. In general, how much pressure are retailers facing as company’s market and what proportion of the company’s
a result of e-commerce? How is this impacting the sales emanates from these retailers?
company specifically? d. How much pricing pressure comes exposure to large
d. Does the company have a presence in e-commerce retailers? How does the company expect this trend
channels? Also, does it sell directly or through third- to evolve?
party e-commerce platforms? e. In this context, what is the anticipated impact of the
e. What strategies are in place to leverage opportunities shift towards e-commerce? How much channel de-
arising from the increased use of e-commerce? risking is expected?
f. Do retailers charge slotting fees in key markets? If so,
9. Competition levels and entry barriers in the industry. how much cost is incurred?
a. How concentrated is the market in general and,
specifically, in categories and sub-categories in which 12. What is the company’s product innovation strategy?
the company operates? What has been its track record in new product
development/launches?
b. What is the company’s market share in categories and
sub-categories in which it operates? a. How frequently does the company launch new products?
c. How much negotiating and pricing power does the b. How are new products or variants typically differentiated?
company’s scale allow? c. What steps are taken to ensure that new product
d. How easy or difficult is it for new players to enter the launches do not cannibalize existing product volumes?
market? What factors affect the entry of new players? d. How much of the company’s revenue is typically derived
from new products?
10. Perceptions about the company’s brands and products. e. What is the company’s strategy for managing the
product life cycle?
a. How do consumers perceive the company’s brands
and products? f. How much cost is typically incurred in the development
and marketing of new products?
b. Are there any controversies surrounding brands,
considering factors such as labelling, use of
preservatives, use of GMO ingredients, potential health 13. What is the extent of detail required on food labels?
risks from ingredients, etc.?
a. How detailed are food labelling requirements in key
c. Have there been any instances where the company has markets? Are these likely to get more stringent?
had to recall products?
b. Could customer perception of the company’s products
d. What has been the company’s track record with respect be affected by information about the goods that appears
to quality control at production facilities? on labels?
e. Has the company ever been penalized, warned or faced c. What requirements exist relating to labelling information
regulatory action for violating any food safety norms? about sugar and fat presence in food products?
f. Is the company facing, or has it faced in the past, d. Are these requirements becoming more stringent?
litigation regarding any aspect of its products? How is this trend likely to evolve and what is the
g. Has the company ever faced adverse media coverage for impact envisaged?
any reason? If so, please provide details and a summary e. How much negative perception regarding sugar and fat
of remedial measures undertaken. currently exists in key markets? How is this evolving?
f. How much total and added sugar is present in the
company’s products?
g. How much total, saturated and unsaturated fat is
present in the company’s products?
FOOD PRODUCERS
14. How are regulations relating to sugar and fat evolving? 17. How has the company performed financially? How do
key metrics compare to peers?
a. Do any sugar and/or fat taxes exist in key markets?
b. If not, how likely is it that these will be introduced? a. What is the current SG&A expense ratio?
What would be the likely impact on sales and customer b. On average, how much does the company spend on
perception of the company’s products? marketing and brand promotion?
c. How common is it for institutions to ban or restrict food c. What are the company’s current gross, operating and
products perceived to be high in sugar and/or fat from net margins?
their canteens? d. How much of the company’s revenues are
denominated in foreign currencies? How are foreign
15. The regulatory environment and its impact on exchange risks mitigated?
the company.
a. Typically, how time consuming for the company are 18. Please provide details of the company’s ESG principles,
testing requirements? practices and track record?
b. How much cost is incurred in the product testing and a. What is the company’s strategy to address concerns
approval process? relating to the health and nutritional aspects of its
c. Does the company face any issues relating to water products? What programs are in place to address
availability and effluent disposal? these concerns?
b. What is the emission, energy, water consumption and
pollutant release intensity of the company’s products
16. How has the company performed operationally?
and manufacturing processes? What steps are taken to
How do key metrics compare to peers?
improve performance on these fronts?
a. What organic volume growth rates have been achieved? c. How much palm oil is used? Does the company practice
b. What level of price increase has been realized? source tracing of its palm oil supplies?
c. What is the company’s price investment strategy? d. Does the company use (or has it used in the past) palm
To what extent can input cost increases be passed on oil sourced from suppliers accused of the destruction of
to customers? rainforests and wildlife habitats?
d. How is the company placed on accounts receivable in e. What measures are in place to ensure palm oil supplies
terms of number of days? are sourced in a sustainable manner?
e. Is the company’s supply chain vulnerable to any f. How much packaging material is used per unit of SKUs
disruptions due to external factors, such as geopolitical in different product types? Does the company intend to
issues and natural disasters? reduce packaging or increase the use of biodegradable or
f. What has been the impact of commodity price changes recycled material, without compromising on safety/quality?
on input costs? How sensitive are margins to changes in g. How much wastage occurs during the sourcing,
commodity prices? processing, packaging and distribution of the
g. Does the company employ any hedging strategies to company’s products?
manage the impact of input cost volatility? h. What proportion of the company’s products are
discarded as unsold past their best use date? Are there
any composting or recycling programs in place for
discarded products?
i. Does the company have any programs to increase
customer awareness of food wastage, helping to
promote responsible consumption?
j. How does the company ensure fair treatment of crop,
dairy and animal farmers, small suppliers and the rural
communities from which products are sourced?

HEALTHCARE
OF LIFE SCIENCES AND HEALTHCARE
The internet has done a superb job in making everyone IT’S CONTAGIOUS
somewhat of an expert in most fields of life, including
health care. Most of us have performed a Google diagnosis We wish to highlight the different industry stakeholders
of our state of health at some point in time. However, the whose lives are interconnected in what can, at times, be a
problem with self-assessment is that we rarely have the never-ending game theory application where the actions
complete picture and may not be in a position to assess the of one party affect the decisions made by others and vice
situation. Consequently, we end up with a wrong and even versa. Stakeholders include producers who compete to
dangerous diagnosis. deliver the most efficient service; consumers who are better
educated and increasingly empowered with Google at their
Similarly, the life sciences and health care industry could fingertips; and governments that must strike a delicate
be injurious for investors who are unfamiliar with its balance between overregulation and the free market,
multifarious subsectors. And we certainly do not want that. including choosing the country’s health care model. When,
As such, we are donning our white coats and readying our for example, the hospitalization coverage extends from 70
stethoscopes to help guide you through the life sciences to 80 years of age, we expect demand for geriatric services
and health care maze. would rise. Hospitals would plan for more physiotherapists
and nurses.
Given the broad range of firms operating in this sector, we
will keep things simple and refer to life sciences and health
care as health care throughout this piece. The sector can be GOVERNMENT BIOPSY
divided into three categories:
Governments are expected to play a bigger role in the years
1. Drug producers ahead. The average country sees the state pick up 51% of
total costs of health care services; but once we strip out
2. Medical equipment and supplies manufacturers
the contribution made by insurers and employer-sponsored
3. Health care providers schemes, the consumers shoulder a not insignificant 35%
of the bill.
We kick off with topical issues affecting the sector.
Thereafter, we drill down into each pertinent area and However, evidence points to consumers struggling to
provide suggestions for the type of questions you should foot major medical bills, especially the lower- and lower-
ask when analysing individual companies. middle-income group. These categories of households are
susceptible to falling into poverty and thus putting a cap
on consumption growth. Governments may then inevitably
THE COST OF PAIN be forced to absorb a bigger proportion of the health
care tab. An eventual consequence to higher government
Health care is a relatively non-discretionary industry. Unless expenditure on health care could be a keener interest
we choose to suffer in silence, then we must spend to in the activity of producers, which may manifest itself
mend. Moreover, our aversion to pain is reflected in the data: in tighter or new regulation to ensure lower government
A recent World Health Organization report revealed that procurement costs. It also will not be surprising if the
global expenditure on health care is 10% of global gross decibel measurement spikes up in annual general meetings
domestic product. It is also snowballing, particularly in the as health care companies come under greater government
developing world where per capita incomes have been on scrutiny.
the rise. Country and geographical factors are something
you should bear in mind when assessing the growth
potential of health care businesses.
HEALTHCARE
CONTRIBUTORY FACTORS LONG-TERM DRIVERS: THE THREE DS
What makes a study of this sector interesting are Demographics – if we use Singapore as an example, the
the numerous fundamental long-term drivers and country’s rapidly ageing population is already placing
megatrends affecting the industry. The trends and unprecedented demand on the government’s budget
drivers below are intended to provide you with a flavor of and prompting the authorities to devise solutions that
the key developments (and mitigating factors) that could are effective, affordable, and sustainable. Singapore has
have a significant influence on the performance of the always placed personal responsibility as a central tenet in
companies you analyse: numerous areas, including health care. Residents save for
the inevitable major medical expenditure. Health care costs
Megatrends: The three Cs are also kept low with co-payments, whereby patients
pay part of the bills; this encourages patients to avoid
We must contend with several emerging megatrends that
extending stay and treatment in hospitals unless absolutely
will further alter the landscape of the health care industry.
needed. Nevertheless, with the percentage of residents
Consolidation – Merger and acquisition activity has been aged 65 and above rising rapidly, new measures to slow
growing steadily over the past decade. Press releases rising health care expenditure are needed. Instead of full-
from merging participants would have us believe that the fledged government restructured hospitals, community
new combined entity will deliver improved care at a lower hospitals are utilized for step-down care after patients
price. However, as investors, you need to be aware that undergo primary treatment or surgery. The government has
reduced competition has a habit of pushing prices up to the also acknowledged the benefit of social support in healing
detriment of other stakeholders. patients and has moved to allocate resources to expand
social networks within the community setting. This, one
Cover – The insurance industry faces its biggest shake-up hopes, will translate to better quality of care and lower
yet. We are in the age of risk segregation, which means that growth in health care expenditure.
the health of a person can be more accurately assessed
and the premiums adjusted accordingly. This approach is Disease – Diabetes, heart attack, stroke, and cancer, all
fair, as it curtails the collective burden on policyholders are on the rise, and each can be treated if the causes
and helps insurance companies to price their products are nipped in the bud. People also need to be aware of
accordingly. how their lifestyles contribute to these conditions. In
Singapore, a programme of coordinated care, which sees
Change – In Europe and the United States, the emergence ongoing contact between patients and health workers,
of what commentators are calling “populism” could spell a has been proved to slash readmission rates by 60%. This
revision of health policies. If members of the electorate feel is complemented by concerted efforts amongst various
that they are paying too much in taxes but not receiving government agencies to encourage us to forgo sugary food
adequate levels of service (which always seems to be the and take a daily 10,000-step or more walk!
case) and somehow discover they have a powerful voice,
we may see some radical changes in health care policies. Development – Technology is more than state-of-the-art
scanners; it is also data. With stacks and stacks of medical
files, there are bound to be processing inefficiencies and
sometimes costly mistakes. Using a computerised system,
doctors, clinics, and insurance companies can quickly share
relevant data and pertinent information.
HEALTHCARE
COST OF DRUGS It is also important to determine expected product
development costs and how these compare with groups
The big pharmaceutical companies have always maintained offering similar services. Question the company’s track
a firm grip on pricing. But with tighter health care budgets, record in converting R&D efforts into patentable drugs or
we could witness a shift towards value-based pricing (VBP). products.
If drug users can’t afford to pay what the pharmaceutical
companies charge, then something must give. Under Once you are satisfied that a company has the potential
VBP, drug companies would be rewarded according to to be included in your portfolio of investments, scrutinize
the effectiveness of their products. How this might work its financial performance. Examples could consist of
in practice is still being debated because measuring and current operating and net margins, as well as the ratio of
attributing the efficacy of a drug can be difficult. However, operating income to free cash flow. Are there adequate
the very fact that the concept is being considered may financial resources to undertake relevant and, most often,
point to possible changes in the near future. extended trials for drugs or devices? Last, but certainly not
least, has the company ever recalled any of its drugs or
devices? If so, determine the damage to the finances and
DRILLING DOWN INTO PERTINENT AREAS reputation of the company.
On that note, let’s move on to explain how we think you You should also be reasonably knowledgeable about
should systematically analyse the companies in the sector. environmental, social, and governance issues. Learn
We mentioned earlier keeping things simple; hence we will more about the investments that a company has made or
begin by examining the lines of enquiry that are common to that will be directed towards ensuring, for example, that
health care companies. medicines have been thoroughly tested and are compliant.
Look too at the staff, especially at support staff – care
workers, radiologists, nurses, and cleaners – are they well
UNIVERSAL TREATMENT FOR HEALTHCARE COMPANIES treated and paid fairly? Ask if ethical behavior is a foreign
practice or is stressed by a company’s management.
First, establish the level of demand for the company’s
products and services and be mindful of future growth We hope you have found the first part of our analysis
potential, for sometimes an obscure offering could well useful. We will be back for the second part to dissect
become the industry’s next “big thing.” Follow this up the sector into drug producers, medical equipment and
by assessing the company’s position in its business supplies manufacturers, and health care providers. For a
segment: Is the company a dominant player, and are more in-depth assessment of the industry, the complete
there barriers to market entry for new operators? What framework is available on www.arx.cfa.
are its core competencies relative to its peers? Does the
company have an edge over the competition?
About the Authors


HEALTHCARE
OF LIFE SCIENCES AND HEALTHCARE (PART TWO)
IN THE first part of this sector analysis published on Consider the government of the day. Are there any
Business Times dated April 27, we explored topical regulatory developments that could affect the company’s
issues such as demographics, government policies and ongoing business? Similarly, check if political or consumer
cost of drugs that can influence the performance of headwinds might impact drug prices in the firm’s markets.
businesses operating in the life sciences and healthcare In the United States, for example, there are proposals under
sector. Our analysis went on to touch on four elements consideration that would change the way drugs are priced
affecting individual companies – level of demand, market in the Medicare system.
structure, corporate performance, and track record – and
environmental, social, and governance issues. Lastly, not all drug companies develop new products. Some
specialise in the manufacture of generic treatments such
In this second part, we will examine the different types as paracetamol. Therefore, your analysis should target
of health care companies and provide suggested lines of specific areas of these businesses, such as the scale
enquiry to follow when considering a business for inclusion of operations, manufacturing practices, and the costs
in an investment portfolio. As before, we will refer to life associated with introducing new drugs.
sciences and health care as the health care sector.
Health care isn’t all about prescription drugs. We also use a
vast array of other treatments that are purchased over the
THE MEDICAL CORPS counter. These include skin creams, lotions, and powders.
Some are manufactured by the same companies that
We have divided the health care sector into three categories develop prescription drugs, while specialist firms make
for ease of analysis. They are others.
• drug producers, In this case, the brand is sometimes as crucial as the
product itself. Think of baby powder, and Johnson & Johnson
• medical equipment and supplies manufacturers, and immediately comes to mind. Part of your research here
• health care providers. should be to explore market share and name recognition. Do
look at geographic reach and distribution methods in your
research journey.
DRUG PRODUCERS
Our desire to live is as strong as a drug company’s appetite MEDICAL EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES MANUFACTURERS
for profits. We suggest that you initiate your assessment
by examining the pipeline of drugs under development. In We move on to the hardware section of the health care
particular, focus on the various approvals that need to be industry. It makes sense to split this topic into two
obtained and establish how successful the firm has been in subsections: equipment and supplies manufacturers.
converting pipeline drugs into approved treatments. Keep a We refer to equipment as everything from high-tech
tab on costs as well. scanners to the tools used in the operating theatre,
clinics, and wards. These items are generally durable.
Nothing lasts forever. Inspect the company’s patent portfolio Screen the company’s product portfolio and determine
and the exclusivity period of its current drugs, especially how diversified the product offering is. This information
the most profitable lines. Does the company have a strategy will help you to gauge key-product risk. It also makes
to deal with patent expirations and associated challenges? sense to determine whether the device and equipment the
company manufactures are deemed essential regardless
Consider the competition. What benefits do the company’s of technological advances or are liable to be defunct in
drugs offer above and beyond those sold by other groups? the next few years. With regards to technological change,
Is the company aware of peers that have pipeline drugs in determine whether the company is seen as an innovator or
late-stage development, which could well pose a threat to a follower.
those currently being marketed or developed by itself?
HEALTHCARE
Age demographics in a country matters in analyzing health Asia is also experiencing rapid growth in health care
care companies. Are the products manufactured geared tourism, which is being underpinned by portable insurance
towards geriatric wards (body scanners or mobility aids) or policies, inexpensive travel, and greater awareness among
across all age groups (surgical equipment)? With an ageing consumers of the services available out of their home
population across the globe, there will be growth potential territories. Bear this in mind when examining a particular
for businesses that manufacture equipment used primarily business and check out how much income it generates
by the elderly. from overseas patients. Does it have a strategy in place to
develop this cash stream further? Or are medical tourists in
If we consider the medical supplies market, then this the region favouring Thailand over Singapore hospitals for
tends to be at the more consumable end of the chain certain procedures?
– bandages, syringes, gloves, and swabs, for example.
Determine the medical procedures that use these items: Reputation is also vital. You will want to know if the facility
The more frequent the occurrence, the higher the potential or company employs world-class professionals at all levels
sales. Similarly, it’s also worth your while to determine the and provides the best possible treatment. Fortunately,
disposable nature of these items. Single-use supplies have for investors, this isn’t too difficult to check, with hospital
higher replacement levels. league tables freely available and review sites awash with
patient comments.
From a competition perspective, does the business
dominate the market, or are others producing similar Finally, take time to look at the health insurers and weigh up
product offerings? Moreover, it helps if a firm has a long- factors such as the medical loss ratio. This measure gauges
term contract with a medical facility or health board. If it the amount of premium income allocated to health care
does, determine the quality of this association and learn if it claims as opposed to admininstrative costs or profit. The
is reviewed periodically. Medical Care Act in the United States requires many insurers
to apportion a minimum of 80% of their income to claims.
HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS Now that our examination is over, we hope you go on to

lead healthy and happy investing lives. For a more in-depth
The third category of the sector is occupied by the health assessment of the industry, our complete framework is
care providers – hospitals, specialist facilities, hospices, available on www.arx.cfa.
and drop-in centres. This area is where health care budgets
and population mix have significant influences over care
providers. Ascertain the factors affecting health care
spending in key markets and the share of expenditure by
different types of payers (government, insurance, individual
out-of-pocket). Determine the dynamics governing demand
from each. Do also establish the availability and acceptance
of alternative medical treatment centres.
About the Authors


HEALTHCARE
02 MARKET
POSITION Sales channel Approval
Regulatory
03
STRUCTURAL
barriers to
efficacy process entry INFLUENCES Ageing Technological
01 DRIVERS
demographics developments
DEMAND
Core competencies
insurance Regulatory Public Increasing Changes
coverage pricing healthcare industry in disease
Discretionary controls regulations consolidation rates
and non- Customer Availability of
discretionary mix perception substitutes
04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
08 HEALTHCARE
PROVIDERS
HEALTHCARE
A step-by-step guide Product Free cash flow Current,
to analyzing the development generation operating and
healthcare industry costs net margins
Healthcare Healthcare Expenditure share
budgets spending by different types
trends of players
Cash flow for R&D efficiency Track record
R&D ratio of penalties
Reputation
06 DRUG
Health Local versus international
insurers factors patients mix
PRODUCERS Sales, general
and administrative Drug recall history
07 MEDICAL
EQUIPMENT
expense ratio and implications
MANUFACTURERS
Drug
development
Approval Regulatory Patent
process developments portfolio
05 ESG
FACTORS
pipeline
Diversity of Economic utility of

product portfolio product portfolio Labour practices and Safe drug use
Pricing regulations R&D costs Public perception track record and disposal
Age demographic and Ethical stakeholder Drug testing and

product growth potential Pipeline comparison Operational Manufacturing relationship compliance procedures
against peers scale practices

HEALTHCARE
1. What is the degree of non-discretionary demand for the 5. How is the company performing from a financial
company’s products and services? perspective? How do key financial metrics compare
to peers?
a. What kind of drugs and devices does the company make?
Which diseases and therapeutic areas are targeted? a. What is the correlation between the company’s cash
b. Do the drugs and devices treat critical/life threating or flows and return on capital with revenues?
chronic or aesthetic problems? b. What is the company’s sales, general and administrative
c. What choices does a patient have in terms of delaying (SG&A) expense ratio?
his/her treatment? c. What are the current operating and net margins?
d. Are the company’s drugs and devices perceived to d. What is the current ratio of operating income to free
be best in class with superior benefits? Do they have cash flow?
cheaper substitutes with comparable benefits? e. Does the company have sufficient cash to conduct
relevant trials for drugs or devices? If not, how will future
2. How dominant are companies that operate in chosen trials be funded?
business segments? How easy is it for new players to
enter and compete? 6. What is the extent of the company’s liabilities
a. What is the company’s core competency relative to its concerning its products and services?
competitors? Does it enjoy any advantages, which allow it a. Has the company faced any regulatory or legal penalties
to dominate in specific segments or markets? in the past? How significant were those penalties
b. How long does it take to obtain approvals for novel drugs or relative to revenues?
devices or generic drugs or similar devices? b. What class action suits and regulatory investigations are
c. How expensive and time-consuming it is to conduct currently faced?
different trials for regulatory approval? c. Has the company recalled any of its drugs/devices in
d. Are any special marketing arrangements in place resulting the past? If so, what were the reasons for these recalls?
in a competitive edge in specific segments or markets? What was the financial and reputational impact?
3. What are the long-term demographic trends in

key markets?
a. What is the distribution of the company’s sales by country?
b. What is the current population and per capita income
level in those countries?
c. What is the expected population and income growth in
those countries?
d. How much of the total GDP is spent on healthcare in key
markets? How is this expected to evolve?
e. What are the household income levels in key markets?
What proportion of that income is spent on health care?
How is this expected to evolve?
4. What are the company’s typical product development

costs? How do these compare with peers? To what
extent are product development costs expected to
change in future?
a. How much does the company spend on research &
development (R&D) as a percentage of sales?
b. How does the company measure efficiency in converting
R&D expenses into patentable molecules, drug and
product approvals?
c. How do these compare to pharmaceutical and
biotech drugs?
HEALTHCARE
Prescription Drug Companies
7. What is the potential market size and the potential g. How long does it typically take to develop, test, obtain
duration of usage per customer of the company’s approvals and launch drugs into the market?
current and pipeline drug portfolio? h. What is the expected schedule for launching various
a. What are the prevalence and incidence rates of the diseases drugs currently under development?
and conditions treated by the company’s suite of drugs? i. What costs are typically incurred in developing, testing
b. What treatment options are currently available for these and obtaining required approvals for new drugs?
diseases and conditions? j. How are development costs expected to evolve? How
c. How frequently, at what dosage and for how long should useful is technology in reducing development costs?
patients use these drugs? k. What is the current mix of drugs in the company’s
d. How does this translate into market size? development pipeline, in terms of therapies that require
critical care or chronic care or aesthetic use?
e. What benefits do the company’s drugs offer compared
to options currently available to patients, for example,
higher efficacy, shorter duration, reduced side effects, 10. How significant are sales and marketing efforts in
cheaper cost, or other benefits? driving the company’s revenue?
f. If the company’s drugs are for diseases and conditions a. How important is the sales role in determining which
for which there is no treatment currently available, what drugs are prescribed by physicians to patients?
other companies are concurrently developing drugs for
b. How capable is the company’s sales team and how
these diseases and conditions?
influential are they with physicians?
g. Is the company aware of peers that have pipeline drugs
c. How are the effectiveness of the sales force and the
in late-stage development, which could pose a threat
return on marketing expenditure measured?
to those currently being marketed or which are in the
development pipeline? d. How does the company expect sales costs to evolve? How
do the company’s sales costs compare with peers, if known?
e. Does the company intend to expand or restructure its
8. What is the shape of the company’s patent portfolio and
sales team? If so, what are the reasons behind this?
the exclusivity period of current drugs?
f. Is any expansion of the sales force planned to support
a. How many patents are held and what are their new drug launches?
expiration schedules?
b. How much revenue is derived from these drugs?
11. Who determines demand and pays for drugs in key
c. What is the company’s strategy in dealing with patent markets and segments?
expirations and associated challenges?
a. What proportion of medical costs are paid by any form
d. How long is the typical exclusivity period for new drugs?
of insurance and how much do patients pay out of
How does this vary for pharma and biotech drugs?
their pocket?
e. What patent and exclusivity related litigation challenges
b. Are there any gatekeepers of demand such as Pharma
are currently faced?
Benefit Managers (PBMs), which influence demand
f. How much cost is incurred defending patents and and pricing? If so, please discuss the extent of their
exclusivity periods for the company’s drugs? presence and influence.
c. How much pressure on pricing is faced face due to
9. Does the company have a pipeline of drugs aggregation and intermediation of demand by PBMs?
under development?
a. How many drugs/molecules are currently 12. Are any regulatory developments anticipated that are
under development? likely to affect the company’s ongoing business?
b. What stages of development are these drugs currently in? a. Are any changes in the drug approval process/guidelines
c. What therapeutic areas are these molecules targeted at? expected from regulatory agencies (FDA, EMA etc) that
d. When are the various approvals expected to be granted? might affect future drug launches?
e. What is the company’s past success rate in converting b. Are any political / consumer headwinds for drug prices
pipeline drugs into approved treatments? faced in key markets?
f. Are any of the company’s late-stage pipeline drugs c. Are there any moves to reduce spending in markets
facing roadblocks during the approval process? If so, where the government is the major spender?
when are these roadblocks expected to be cleared? d. Are there any other developments with potential
downside risk for drug prices.
HEALTHCARE
Generic Drug Companies Over-The-Counter &
Consumer Products
13. What is the company’s strategy for identifying and 15. What is the shape of the company’s current
launching drugs and associated risks? off-prescription product portfolio?
a. Are there any specific therapeutic areas the company a. What are the company’s over-the-counter (OTC) and
focuses on? If so, how are these identified? consumer products?
b. What is the strategy to identify which drugs to target? b. How many of these are drugs versus non-drugs?
c. How quickly is the company able to launch generic c. Can these products be used across age groups?
versions of drugs coming off patents?
d. What is the scale of liabilities faced relating to 16. What purpose are these products used for?
at-risk launches?
a. What conditions do these products treat?
b. How frequently do these conditions occur among the
14. What is the scale of the company’s current operations?
population in the company’s key markets?
a. What is the company’s manufacturing approach? c. How many of these conditions occur seasonally?
Are facilities owned or are contract manufacturing During what time of year do the conditions occur and
agreements in place? for how long?
b. How many different drugs can be manufactured within d. What is the typical duration and dosage of use of
owned facilities? these products?
c. What would be the incremental cost of scaling up the e. How long have these products have been off-prescription?
production of key drugs?
d. What would be the additional cost of commencing
17. Does the company have products in the health foods
production of new drugs?
and nutraceuticals segment?
e. What competitive advantages are derived from the scale
of the company’s operations/production? a. Which products are available in this segment of the
company’s portfolio?
f. What is the cost structure of key drugs at different
production levels? How does profitability at lower b. Are these products for regular consumption? If so, at
volumes compare with that at higher volumes? what frequency?
g. What are the different factors currently driving costs? What c. How aware are consumers in key markets about health
other factors are expected to become relevant in future? issues and how is this evolving?
h. How well is the company able to maintain costs? d. What impact on its products does the company
How are costs expected to evolve and how does this anticipate as awareness of health issues increases?
compare with peers, if known? e. What is the sugar content of the company’s products?
i. If contract manufacturing is utilized, how does the What is the likely extent of demand changes due to the
company ensure quality standards are maintained? increasingly negative perception of sugar?
j. How well has the company (or contractors) been able to f. How are consumption habits changing in key markets?
adhere to good manufacturing practices? What is the resulting impact on the company’s products?
k. How have the company’s (or contractors’) facilities
typically fared during regulatory inspections?
HEALTHCARE
Medical Device Companies
18. How strong are the company’s brands perceived to be 20. How much non-discretionary demand do the
in this segment? company’s products have?
a. What is the market share of the company’s brands in a. How many of the company’s products can be classified
their respective segments? as critical or life-saving versus for aesthetic use?
b. Has the company been able to grow and maintain its b. What alternatives to the company’s products do patients
market share? have? How long can customers postpone using the
c. Does the company have any brands with dominant company’s products?
market shares in their respective segments?
d. What is the positioning and value proposition of the 21. What are the long-term trends relating to ageing and
company’s brands? life expectancy in key markets?
e. Has the company attempted to extend the brand range a. How are ageing and changing life expectancies
into related categories? If so, how successful have expected to translate to structural demand for the
these efforts been? company’s products?
f. What is the size and geographic spread of the b. What kind of devices are likely to see increased demand
company’s distribution network? as a result of these trends?
c. What are the implications of these trends for the
19. Please describe the company’s operational and financial company’s current product portfolio?
performance? How do key metrics compare to peers? d. How does the company intend to leverage these trends?
a. What is the company’s current accounts receivable
turnover in terms of numbers of days? 22. The company’s product portfolio.
b. How much of the company’s revenue growth is
a. How diversified is the current product portfolio?
attributable to organic expansion?
b. What is the pace of evolution in the company’s product
c. How effectively have costs been controlled? What is the
segments? Does this occur organically over time, or
current cost of goods sold ratio?
through rapid advancements?
d. What percentage of sales is spent on advertising and
c. How does the company’s product development strategy
brand promotion?
tie in with structural trends outlined earlier?
d. How do product development costs compare with those
of peers, if known?
23. How effective is the sales team and how influential are
they with surgeons?
a. How much impact does the sales force have in
determining what drugs physicians prescribe to patients?
b. How effective is the sales team and how influential are
they with surgeons?
c. How are the effectiveness of the sales force and the
return on spending measured?
d. Does the company plan on expanding or restructuring its
sales team? If so, for what reasons?
c. Is any expansion of the sales team planned to support
new-drug launches?
HEALTHCARE
Healthcare Equipment Providers
24. Details of the current product portfolio. 26. How are the company’s products marketed?
a. How many of the company’s products are used to a. What different sales models are employed – outright
perform diagnosis? sale versus financing versus lease versus rental? What
b. How many and what therapeutic areas/conditions / is the current mix?
diseases are these products used to diagnose? b. Does the company provide financing/lease / rental
c. How many of the company’s products are used to agreements directly, or through third parties?
provide or support treatments and clinical procedures? c. How does the company evaluate the credit profile of buyers?
d. How many and what therapeutic areas/conditions / d. How are credit terms determined?
diseases are these products used to treat? e. Does the company provide service contracts? If so, what
e. What is the company’s estimate of the number of times are the terms of these contracts?
these procedures are performed in a given period? f. What is the revenue mix from equipment, supplies
f. How is the demand for these procedures expected and service? How do the margins from each
to evolve? segment compare?
g. Are these procedures typically performed on older
patients, or across all age groups?
h. Are any consumables used while performing these
procedures? If so, what are those and in what quantities
are they used?
i. Does the company have a dominant market share in
any/all of its equipment types? How easy is it for new
entrants to venture into this space?
j. Are cheaper substitutes available for these
equipment types?
k. What differentiates the company’s offerings from
competing products and cheaper substitutes?
25. The lifecycle and technology aspects of the

company’s products.
a. What has been the typical lifetime of these products
before they have to be replaced or upgraded? How does
the company expect this to evolve in the future?
b. How fast is the technology associated with these
diagnostic/therapeutic products evolving?
c. Does the firm intend to utilize emerging technologies,
such as Artificial Intelligence? If so, what benefits
are envisaged?
HEALTHCARE
Medical Supplies Providers Managed Care Providers
27. What products form part of the company’s 29. What are the factors affecting healthcare spending in
current portfolio? key markets?
a. Which of the company’s products are used during a. What is the share of healthcare spending by different
diagnosis compared with during treatment? type of payers (government, insurance, out of pocket)?
b. During which diagnostic or therapeutic procedures are b. What dynamics govern demand from each of these payers?
the company’s products used? c. Which is the most and least price-sensitive payer category?
c. How frequently are these procedures performed?
Is this expected to remain constant, or are any
30. Is the company’s hospital the only facility in the area?
changes anticipated?
d. Which of the company’s products can be described as a. What is the company’s population coverage in key
consumables (e.g. bandages) versus non-consumables markets? What alternative treatment centres are
(e.g. surgical instruments)? available to these populations?
e. Which of the company’s products are single use (e.g. b. Does the company offer any specialized treatment or
disposable syringed) versus reusable (e.g. waist belts)? therapy that is not available elsewhere?
f. Does the company have any products with no known c. If the company operates a chain of hospitals, please
direct substitutes in the market? provide details of major centres.
g. Does the company have powerful brands in any of the
supplies produced? 31. What ageing and life expectancy trends exist in
h. Which of the company’s products have cheaper key markets
substitutes available in the market? How are the company’s a. How does the company expect ageing and changing life
products differentiated from these alternatives? expectancies to affect demand for its services?
b. How does the company expect the market to evolve in
28. The company’s operational and financial performance – terms of demand for in-hospital treatment versus at-
how do key metrics compare with peers? home treatment?
a. What is the size and geographic spread of the c. If the population in key markets is getting older, how
company’s distribution network? strong are the company’s capabilities and offerings in
geriatric care?
b. Does the firm have long-term contracts to supply major
diagnostic/hospital chains?
c. What organic volume growth has been achieved? 32. The company’s cost structure.
d. What is the company’s accounts receivable turnover in a. What is the medical loss ratio (MLR) incurred? How does
terms of numbers of days? this compare relative to peers, if known?
e. How well are costs able to be controlled? What is the b. Is there a mandatory floor on MLR?
company’s Cost Of Goods Sold ratio? c. What is the company’s current SG&A expense ratio? How
does this compare with that of peers, if known?

LUXURY PRODUCTS AND RETAIL

BECAUSE YOU’RE WORTH IT — UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTMENT
FUNDAMENTALS OF LUXURY RETAIL
By Alan Lok, CFA, Eunice Chu, ACCA and Guruprasad Jambunathan
Dopamine. It’s the pleasure-inducing brain chemical that is manufacturing chain results in consistent craftsmanship
released when we treat ourselves to something new. And and a supreme eye for detail, while a close-knit distribution
the surge of elation we get when we go to the cash desk channel guarantees that the one-to-one customer service
and discover there’s an additional 30% discount? Well, is top notch.
that’s the dopamine kicking in big time.
In many situations, the functionality of the product is
Of course, all retailers are fully aware of this reward- secondary. After all, Jimmy Choo sandals and slip-on Crocs
motivated behavior, but none more so than the luxury serve precisely the same purpose, but the latter would
goods branch of the industry. look strangely out of place at the Oscars. Service delivery
is far more important. Essentially, the entire business
proposition means adhering tightly to the noted set of
strict principles to preserve the uniqueness of the luxury
CHASING A DREAM item and trigger enormous brand “stickiness.”
Compared with other industries, the luxury retail business From an analyst’s perspective, this can be a tricky
model certainly has some distinct characteristics. business model to grasp. Many of us are, perhaps, rather
For a start, its demand curve is not downward sloping. sober in nature and not easily swayed by the ephemeral
In other words, demand does not always increase with a glitter of high-end consumerism. A safe bet, therefore, is to
decline in price — in fact, one of the industry’s key tricks examine the companies in this sector as we always do —
is to raise the average cost of an item — the rationale logically and with an incisive mind.
being that higher prices keep the middle class (the target
customer group) chasing the dream of luxury.
PRICED TO PERFECTION?
A good place to begin your journey is by understanding the
HAVE YOU SEEN HIS ROLEX? company’s profile and identifying where in the luxury retail
Contrary to typical offerings from other industries, a luxury chain it operates. What unique value proposition does the
brand’s image is not pushed solely at potential consumers. company offer to customers?
Massive communications to nontarget groups are also Ascertain the discretionary and nondiscretionary demand
crucial. Product admiration from others creates a sense of for the company’s products and services. At the same
social and economic superiority among actual consumers time, establish which of the company’s product categories
— the glint of a Rolex under a starched cuff impresses is most sensitive to price changes. These products could
strangers and makes the owner feel wonderful. Indeed, be affected by long-term demographic, macroeconomic,
anything that enhances this sense of uniqueness can and geographic factors, so get to know what these
boost sales. are. For example, what is the average age and level of
wealth of consumers in the company’s key markets?
Is this expected to change? Importantly, does the firm
undertake segmentation of its customer base? If so, what
BRAND PROTECTION dimensions does it use? These could include specific
Maintaining full control over the value chain, as well as product lines, brands, or strategies that target different
distribution channels, is a necessity rather than a choice. groups.
There are countless real-life examples of quality names
With regard to price, what is the company’s strategy for
that have been tarnished at the hands of franchisees
different products, and which of these offerings are most
or appropriated by nontarget groups. Burberry still has
immune to price changes? Do past trends support this?
an image problem in the United Kingdom because it
became the brand of choice for lower socioeconomic
elements of the population. Moreover, a command of the
SALES COUNTER Although the internet makes the world feel smaller, people
living in different regions still have different tastes. So,
In terms of sales, does the company provide a detailed establish the geographic importance of the company’s
breakdown of its performance in terms of volume and outlets and the pricing structures across these different
price? Similarly, check whether it generates growth by geographies. Which products are the most popular in
same-store sales, net additions, inorganic growth, and each location? You may find that a company with a higher
foreign exchange impacts — and explore how this trend exposure to the industrial world has stagnating sales,
will evolve. but a firm with a strong presence in China, for example, is
experiencing a surge in activity.
The various elements that drive a firm’s cost profile
and how it manages these elements also are linked to
sales. What are the company’s gross, operating, and net
margins? This information will prompt you to learn more ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS
about the business’s profitability and cash position versus
its competitor’s position. The luxury retail sector, with its soft focus on making
life more pleasurable, does not automatically spring to
mind as an industry that needs to focus too closely on
environmental, social, and governance factors. Underneath
RECOGNIZING THE NAME the cashmere coat, however, the industry faces the same
challenges as any other part of the economy. Consider
Given the importance of a company’s branding strategy, a company’s energy, electricity, and water use and its
it is crucial to investigate how a luxury retailer markets waste generation. Has it invested in ways to improve
its products and services and to establish how much it performance on these fronts?
spends on these pursuits. What are the primary modes of
advertising and promotion activity: television, magazines, What is the company’s policy on sourcing raw material
or billboards? Who heads up the company’s creative team from conflict zones? Does it ensure that the extraction
and what are their credentials? Do these people truly and sourcing of this material is done in a lawful, fair, and
understand the nuances of luxury branding? sustainable manner? From a labor perspective, can it
provide evidence that it treats its employees and suppliers
fairly? Finally, it is vital to know whether the company
directly or indirectly employs child workers.
GLOBAL REACH
As always, these guidelines are designed to provide
From a technology perspective, review the firm’s social
you with a short but solid foundation to kick-start any
media presence and pay attention to its preferred
future analysis. So, rest your feet on that expensive
channel. This can tell you a lot about its target audience —
Italian leather sofa, relax, and start your in-depth journey
Instagram is aimed at under 30s, whereas Facebook has
through the sector.
a broader demographic. Looking ahead, consider whether
the company grasps how e-commerce affects its sales.
Does it have a strategy to increase revenue from home
shopping?
About the Authors

Eunice Chu, ACCA is an ACCA-qualified finance professional. She was a regional finance director of a Fortune 500 multinational
corporation and, at present, heads the policy function of ACCA Hong Kong.
Guruprasad Jambunathan, FRM, is a Director for Financial Research at CRISIL, a global research and analytics company. He has
more than 12 years of experience in equity research and works closely with a broad clientele of buy-side and sell-side firms, as
well as with academic think tanks across various continents.

02 03
STRUCTURAL
PRODUCT Luxury product
positioning
Affordable luxury
vs. Premium luxury INFLUENCES
AND MARKET products
SEGMENTATION
01
DEMAND
Price sensitivity of
products/services
Target market Current Barriers to
segmentation competition entry
Degree of Channels of Competitive Communication of key

non-discretionary revenue
LUXURY
differentiation value proposition
demand
RETAIL
Infographic showing the
step-by-step process
of analyzing the
Sources of revenue Tourist traffic luxury retail industry Brand Impact of
reputation social media
06
ESG FACTORS 04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
05
Operating Energy use Waste MEASURING GROWTH
Conditions generation EXPECTATIONS Pricing Strategy Inventory management
Sourcing of Fair treatment Fair treatment High-net-worth Consumer Outlets and impact Wholesale vs. Retail
sustainable of employees of suppliers individuals population preference on price realization
materials


1. What is the degree of elasticity of demand for the 5. How easy is it for new players to enter and compete?
company’s products and services? What are the entry barriers?
a. What is the extent of change in demand observed in
response to a unit change in price?
6. How has been the company’s performance in terms of
b. Does price decrease and increase have same elasticity? volume growth?
Does the elasticity vary across price levels?
a. What is the break-down of the company’s sales
c. Which product categories are more sensitive to price
performance by volume and price?
changes than others? What are the dynamics driving
these differences? b. What are the details of other aspects of sales growth
such as same-store sales, new store sales, inorganic
d. What are the details of the company’s price investment
growth and the effect of foreign exchange?
strategy? How does it compare with industry practices?
c. What are the key qualitative factors driving these
numbers?
2. What are the details of the demand profile of the
company’s products and services?
7. What is the cost structure of the company’s products
a. What is the consumption profile of the products and services? How does it compare with that of peers?
managed by the company?
a. What are the key elements that drive the company’s
b. What are the key factors driving their consumption?
cost profile?
c. How does the company forecast demand for its
b. How does the company manage each aspect of cost?
products?
c. What are the gross, operating and net margins on an
d. Is there a seasonality observed in demand for the
aggregate basis and across key product lines?
products managed by the company? What are some
examples of such products and the strategy used to d. How have the company’s margins evolved over the past
manage seasonality? few years? How does the company expect margins to
shape up in future?
3. What are the long-term demographic, macro-economic
and geographic factors affecting demand? 8. What is the company’s strategy for space expansion
and store opening? What are the associated
a. What is the average age of the population in the expenses?
company’s key markets?
a. How does the company optimise utilisation of retail
b. How is it expected to evolve?
space through the addition and closure of stores?
c. What is the share of discretionary consumption as a What is the approach between optimising utilisation in
percentage of GDP in key markets? Is there space for existing stores vs opening new stores?
structural growth of consumption?
b. How many stores have been added and how many have
d. What is the level of urbanisation in key markets? been closed in the last few years?
e. What are the other factors that could affect demand? c. What are the details of the company’s strategy
How does the company see these evolving in the underlying store opening and closures?
coming years? How does the company intend to
d. How do sales from new stores compare with sales from
leverage these trends?
existing stores?
e. If new stores typically contribute more, how long do they
4. How does the company undertake segmentation of continue to provide higher sales? If they contribute less,
its customer base? What dimensions (age, income, how long does it take for them to catch up with older
geography, etc.) are used for this purpose? stores?
a. Under which segments does the company classify its
customer base?
b. What are the differences observed in the consumption
and spending behaviour of customers across these
segments?
c. How does the company track the consumption and
spending behaviour of customers in these segments?
d. What are the details of specific product lines, brands
and marketing strategies to target customers in different
segments?
9. What are the most and least effective channels of 13. How would the company explain the key unique value
revenue generation for the company? proposition it offers to customers?
a. Which are most and least stable sources of sales for the a. In the company’s view, how are its brands perceived in
company? the market?
b. What are the most common direct and indirect sources b. What are the results of a brand valuation exercise done
of income? by the company?
c. How has the revenue mix from different channels and c. How differentiated are the company offerings, in its view,
sources evolved over the past few years? How is this in relation to those of its competitors?
expected to shape up in the next few years?
d. How much of sales is driven through the online channel? 14. What are the details of the company’s branding
How is the channel’s contribution expected to evolve? strategy? What are the associated costs?
a. How much is the Advertising and Promotion (A&P) cost
10. What is the impact of tourism on demand for the as a proportion of revenue and total costs?
company’s products and services?
b. What are the main modes of the company’s A&P
a. What proportion of the company’s revenue is generated activities (TV, print, outdoor, internet etc.)?
from international travellers compared with revenue from c. How seasonal are the company’s promotional activities?
domestic buyers in its key markets?
d. What strategies does the company employ to promote
b. How different are the ticket sizes (spending per awareness and value of its brands?
purchase) of domestic and international customers for
e. Does the company disclose details of its creative team?
various product categories?
What are their credentials and track record?
c. Which are the major stores and products that depend
primarily on tourist traffic?
15. How does the company keep track of changing
d. How much revenue is generated from these stores and
customer preferences?
products?
e. How much revenue can be attributed fully to tourist a. How do the life cycles of the company’s products
spending? compare with those of competing products?
f. What is the company’s strategy to manage dependence b. What is the typical average lifespan of a product the
of growth on tourist spending? company introduces in the market?
c. In the company’s view, does the market perceive it as a
follower or as a creator of new trends?
11. What part of the luxury retail chain does the company
operate in? d. How quick is the company to adapt to the changing
preferences of customers?
a. Does the company’s products fall under the affordable
e. In the company’s view, to what extent can its products
luxury category aimed at mid- to high-end customers or
be replaced or re-created?
the premium luxury category targeted at ultra-high net-
worth individuals? f. What is the impact of digitisation on the company’s
business?
12. How is the company’s customer base, specifically the
High Net-worth Individual (HNI) segment, evolving in its
key markets? How is the company responding to these
changes?
a. Which regions does the company consider as its primary
markets?
b. What proportion of the customers are repeat or regular
customers?
c. How does the company retain and cross-sell to regular
customers?
d. What is the company’s strategy to target customers
from new regions?
e. What are the details of rewards or incentives offered to
attract new / first-time customers?
16. What is the influence of social media on reach and 19. What is the extent of the impact of geographic location of
sales of the company’s products? selling outlets on price realisation?
a. Which social media channels (Facebook, Twitter etc.) a. Where are a majority of the company’s stores located?
does the company has a presence in? b. How different are the selling prices across different
b. Which of these channels does the company find to be geographies?
the most useful? c. Does the company actively practice differential pricing or
c. What are the details of the company’s strategy in tries to minimise the price differences across locations and
managing social media outreach? geographies?
d. Which aspects of the social media channels (user d. What are the regions where the margins are superior to
activity, engagement etc.) are tracked by the company? others?
e. How correlated are sales to momentum of the
company’s brands in social media channels? 20. What are the details of the company’s strategy to manage
f. How does the company track social media activity inventory?
around its brands in China, in the absence of Google and
a. What are the inventory days by channel, mode and
other major global channels?
geography?
g. In the company’s view, how important will be the role of
b. What are the details of waiting period for customers, if any,
social media in future?
for the company’s products?
17. What are the details of the company’s pricing strategy
c. What strategies does the company employ to push inventory
for different products?
to dealers?
a. Which products does the company expects to undergo d. What are the issues faced in sourcing raw materials?
large price increases in future?
e. How much of critical raw material requirements depend on
b. What is the likely effect of these price increases? How external vendors?
does the company intend to manage this?
f. How many days does it typically take for raw material
c. Which products are less vulnerable to price changes, in conversion?
the company’s view? Is this supported by past trends?
g. How geographically spread is the manufacturing process?
h. What are the modes of transporting raw materials and
18. What is the mix of the company’s business between finished goods?
wholesale and retail channels?
i. What other challenges does the company face with respect
a. What is the mix of revenues from retail and wholesale to managing inventory?
businesses?
b. How has the trend been over the past few years and
how is it expected to be in the future?
c. Which channels earn the most margins for the
company?
d. What are the challenges to expand the channels in
which margins are most lucrative?

Environmental, Social and
Governance
21. What are the details of the company’s ESG principles,
a. What is the energy, electricity, water use and waste
generation intensity of the company’s operations? What
are the steps being taken to improve performance on
these fronts?
b. What proportion of the company’s stores and other
buildings are certified under programmes such as LEED?
c. What is the company’s policy on sourcing raw material
from conflict zones? What measures does the company
practise to ensure the extraction and sourcing of these
are done in a lawful, fair and sustainable manner?
d. Does the company track the packaging intensity (e.g.
amount of packaging used per tonne of goods sold) of
its products? What are the details of any programmes
to encourage suppliers to reduce packaging, use
biodegradable or recycled material?
e. What are policies and practices implemented by
the company to ensure fair treatment of employees,
contractors and workers employed by suppliers?
f. How does the company ensure its operations do not
directly or indirectly employ child labour?
g. What measures does the company practise to ensure
customer privacy and the safety of customer data
collected and stored by it? Have there been any
breaches of customer privacy or data?
h. To what extent do various stakeholders in the company’s
supply chain practise ESG principles? How does the
company’s actions influence the practices of its
suppliers? How does the company plan to improve
adherence by its suppliers?

REITs
UNDERSTANDING REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (REITs)
• Identify significant factors that matter to REITs as well as gauge effective execution of business model
• Easy-to-use framework for fundamental analysis customised for the retail investor
INTRODUCTION TO SECTOR ANALYSIS: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST (REIT) SECTOR

A FRAMEWORK FOR INVESTORS
REITs are vehicles that own and typically operate a
The key to a company’s success depends on how well it portfolio of income-yielding real estate assets. Modelled
executes its business model. This calls for optimising the along the lines of unit trusts, REITs allow for funds to
allocation of limited resources to generate sustainable be pooled from a group of investors. Such a structure
cash flows, for investing in new products, technologies and provides retail investors with several advantages: a low-
services in responding to the wider competitive landscape hurdle entry and exposure to a diversified pool of real
or societal changes and mega-trends, as well as for estate assets with a high level of liquidity, which would
devising appropriate responses in the face of an evolving not otherwise be possible with direct investing.
macroeconomic, regulatory and political environment.
Most REITs are publicly listed, and declare above 90%
Different industries often require very different business of their earnings as dividends to fulfil certain benefits
models; and even within the same industry, the model that accorded to REITs by the local securities regulator. As
does add value to the business may vary somewhat from such, REITs provide a stable source of recurrent income,
company to company. which serves as a yield play rather than an investment
avenue for reaping capital gains. We believe an effective
To help investors undertake proper due diligence on a and accurate fundamental analysis can help the retail
company, we have generated a framework of analysis investor determine if the recurrent income is stable and/or
designed to tease out the following: (1) whether the trending upwards over the long term.
pertinent factors favour the firm in question; and (2)
whether management is effective in executing its business A REIT generally focuses on a specific category of
model or value-generating strategies, while responding property for investments. Some common classifications
appropriately to its external environment. of REITs include: Office and Commercial REITs, Retail
REITs and Industrial REITs.
This framework is customised to specific sectors and
incorporates interviews with professionals within
those sectors. THE FUNDAMENTALS OF REITs
Within each of these dimensions, certain elements are
common across all REITs, while certain elements are specific
to the type of REIT (e.g. industrial, commercial or retail, etc.).
Demand drivers: Portfolio profile and tenant profile are the key
drivers that determine how revenue could pan out for a REIT.
The former covers attributes such as the location
attractiveness of properties within the portfolio (after all,
property is all about “location, location, location”), the target
segment and the quality of the property supply pipeline vis-
à-vis market requirements.
As for the latter (tenant profile), investors should examine
factors such as overall occupancy levels, average lease
tenure and turnover rates. In addition, the business
prospects and credit worthiness of tenants especially
anchor tenants will give clues to the potential change
in future demand (and as a result, potential impact on
recurrent income), and ultimately to the Distribution Per Unit
(DPU) growth which is a key metric for dividend declaration.
REITs
Other pertinent metrics associated with particular PERFORMANCE DRIVERS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF REITs
REITs, such as physical proximity of properties to target
customers, are worth noting. For instance, the distance Retail and Mall REITs
between residential areas and suburban malls for Retail Level of demand: In the retail space, significant influences
REITs — and similarly the distance between the residence of include the health of the economy, which underpins trends
skilled labour and grade-A central business district offices in real income, and consumption growth. Increases in
for Office and Commercial REITs — plays a crucial role in real per-capita income, coupled with improving consumer
driving revenue for a REIT. confidence, determine the ability and willingness of
households to open their wallets. This is especially so
Market position: The number of competitors within the same when deciding to purchase big-ticket items, such as
property category and their relative market share influence electronics and furniture. Such factors, in turn, affect
the pricing power of a REIT. For instance, an operator of tenant operating performance which translates to the level
hospitals with a monopoly or high concentration ratio in the of property demand and rental rates. The retail investor
private hospitals industry would fare well, all else being equal. must also consider the tenant mix across a REIT’s portfolio
Availability of gazetted land could be a key limiting factor to determine performance. A diversified mix, with no one
in the supply of real estate; hence, maintaining the pricing anchor tenant forming a substantial portion of the REIT’s
power of incumbents. revenue, points to lower revenue concentration risks.
Similarly, a retail investor may want to examine the number
Structural influencers: The ability of a REIT to innovate and of properties in the portfolio — the higher the number, the
adapt to structural changes in the market is critical for less concentrated the revenue generated from one asset.
sustainability. For instance, increased automation might
impact demand for Industrial REITs, while a shift in customer Changes in long-term drivers: Increasingly, the growth
preference for online shopping may directly impact the of e-commerce is impacting “bricks-and-mortar” retailers.
revenue potential of Retail REITs. Online shopping has adversely affected the operating
performance of these retailers, some more than others.
Performance metrics: In evaluating the financial health
of a REIT, it is important to focus on its operating margins, Can the managers of retail REITs respond to this trend? The
yield and leverage. shift from purely retail to a retail-plus-entertainment model is
how some managers have decided to position their malls. The
Net Operating Income (NOI) as a proportion of revenues and proportion of entertainment and food and beverage outlets
as a fraction of property value (also called capitalisation versus merchandising has tipped in favour of the former.
rate) captures the income-generating potential of a REIT.
Funds from Operations (FFO) and Funds Available for For specific retail spaces, the proximity of a property
Distribution (FAD), evaluated as a proportion of total rental to growth catchment areas is vital: consumers may
income and portfolio value, capture the dividend-yielding favour a suburban mall closer to their place of residence.
capacity of a REIT. Gearing ratio, interest and fixed-charge Other considerations, such as adequate car parking
coverage ratios are among the primary leverage-based arrangements, can influence footfall and impact
metrics that investors should adopt to track a REIT. retailers’ revenues.
At a qualitative level, the expertise of senior management

(including the track record of earnings accretive acquisition, A-grade Office and Commercial REITs
as well as the timely and honest communication of financial Key considerations in this segment include the outlook
performance) point to a higher probability of the successful for job growth, particularly in the white-collar section
execution of the REIT’s communicated strategy. of the workforce, which affects demand for A-grade
commercial space; and the build rate of new A-grade office
developments, which increases supply. Both factors are, in
part, a function of economic performance.
Investors should assess trends in office refurbishment
and leasing costs in a REIT’s key markets. Portfolio profiles
and tenant mix also help us to gauge the outlook for REIT
revenue. In addition, proximity to the central business
district, airports or suburban areas may be a factor, and
some portfolios will enjoy a geographical advantage.
Other trends to be considered include the impact of
automation on job growth and workspace demand. This
is demonstrated by the shift to remote working and the
emergence of shared workspaces.
REITs
Industrial Residential
The sensitivity of both property demand and rental rates to Various economic, social and demographic elements
economic investment cycles is a key area of investor focus can affect the rental demand and prices of residential
in the industrial sector. properties. These include income levels, changing
employment conditions or patterns, plus household size
Manufacturing growth, capital investment and warehouse and formation. Affordability, both in terms of rental and
needs affect revenue potential. These factors can be owner-occupied housing, also plays a significant role.
influenced by external trade performance and globalisation.
Tenant mix is also worth noting: the growth prospects How well a property portfolio matches the demand profile,
and competitiveness of those who rent factories and and of course location, are further considerations. The quality
warehouses can determine a portfolio’s return. Access of transport links, and proximity to social infrastructure
to arterial roads, railways, ports and airports are further facilities and places of work, can determine the appeal of a
elements that contribute to a property’s appeal. property and, in turn, dictate values and rental prices.
Investors should note how automation is changing what Government policies relating to affordable housing and rent
companies look for in factory space. Meanwhile, the controls, as well as the structure of the tax regime, should
growth of e-commerce is influencing dynamics in the also be considered. Demand dynamics can be influenced by
warehouse sector and presents an opportunity to leverage the impact of “aggregators” such as Airbnb and providers of
on this growth area. shared living spaces.
Lastly, industrial properties with tenants who are
vulnerable to changes in the business cycle and have
short leases are viewed as riskier investments. On the
other hand, properties with tenants on longer leases
whose business activities are insulated from economic
fluctuations are considered a safer option.
About the Authors

Alan Lok, CFA, is Director of Society Advocacy Engagement, Asia Pacific at CFA Institute. He researches and writes on
investor protection issues and capital market structure and coauthored a CFA Institute position paper on capital market
integrity, “Portfolio Pumping in Singapore: Myth or Reality”. Mr. Lok has more than 10 years of equity research experience,
spanning various industries and sectors.
than 12 years of experience in equity research and works closely with a wide clientele of buy-side and sell-side firms as
well as with academic think-tanks across various continents.

REITs
1. How is the company placed in relation to the overall 3. How evenly spread are the revision schedules of the
demand-supply situation of its key markets? rental agreements?
a. Which of the different segments, such as Residential a. Are the revisions staggered uniformly over a period of
and Student, Retail, Commercial and Office, and time or do they happen collectively together?
Industrial, does the company cater to? b. How quickly can the rates be revised for
b. How many new rental properties are expected to be existing agreements?
added in the major markets in the next 3–5 years? Is c. What is the typical notice period for premature
there sufficient demand to absorb the expected supply termination? Are there any associated penalties?
of new properties?
d. For long-duration agreements, are there provisions for
c. How frequently does supply-demand mismatch occur in periodic mid-term reviews?
key segments and what typically is the extent of such a
e. Is there a waiting list of tenants seeking occupancy?
mismatch? How has the trend been in the last 5 years
If so, on average, how many tenants are seeking
and how is it expected to evolve in the next 3–5 years?
occupancy at any given time? How long is the typical
d. How much do rental rates typically fall for a given unit of waiting time?
additional supply? What are such instances in the past
f. What are the standard selection criteria adopted
when this was observed?
to choose tenants? Does this vary across different
e. Do the rental rates increase by the same degree during segments, locations and property sizes? If so, what are
phases of undersupply as they decrease during phases the details?
of oversupply?
4. What is the profile of your portfolio by location, market
2. How is the company placed in terms of its tenant profile? segment, size and quality of properties?
a. What are the typical turnover rates of tenants across a. What is the mix of property portfolio by number,
locations, market segments, size and quality of properties? size, value of properties and rental income, across
b. What is the company’s strategy to optimise geographies and locations?
tenant turnover? b. How does the locational profile of existing and under-
c. What is the typical waiting period before vacated development properties of the company compare with
properties can be rented out again? that of competitors?
d. What is the extent of trade-off between the waiting c. What is the average age of properties in the
period and rental yields? Are there any specific factors company’s portfolio?
that influence pricing power? d. How do the rental rates and yields compare with those
e. How much concessions/discounts on rental rates are of the company’s peers?
being given across segments and markets? e. How does the comparison feature across locations,
f. What is the typical tenure of rental/lease agreements? market segments and age of properties?
g. Are agreements typically signed on fixed or floating
rental basis? In case of the latter, how are the frequency 5. What is the split of the property portfolio between
and rate of revision determined? land held on freehold basis and on leasehold basis?
h. What is the general split of rental income between fixed- a. What proportion of the land holdings are held as
and floating-rent-based tenancies? freehold properties?
b. What proportion of rental income is derived from
freehold-owned versus leased properties?
c. What are the type of entities, such as government
agencies, private individuals, institutions or corporates,
from whom non-freehold lands are leased?
d. What is the expiry profile of these leasehold properties?
e. What are the extension/renewal provisions available
under the agreements governing these leases?
f. What is the risk that the leases will not get renewed
or extended? What is the strategy to manage the risk
of non-renewal?
REITs
6. How is the company positioned in terms of size and 11. What are the various market and regulatory factors
profile of its land bank? affecting the availability of new properties in key
markets of the company?
a. What are the specific areas where the land parcels
are located? a. What is the estimated size of land available for
b. What are the specific target market segments for the development? Are sufficient land parcels in desired
various land parcels, after they are developed? sizes available in preferred locations?
c. How does the profile of the company’s land bank compare b. How prevalent and restrictive are zoning regulations?
with that of competitors? What is the resultant impact on costs and
development time?
7. What are the key attributes of the company’s c. How concentrated or fragmented are land holdings
growth strategy? across locations chosen for development?
d. How clear, reliable, transparent and accessible is the
a. What is the preferred approach to growth between
information on land titles?
developing and acquiring properties?
e. How easy is it to obtain necessary approvals and permits?
b. How does the company decide on the approach to a
What is the typical time period needed to achieve them?
particular segment and market?
f. What is the typical transaction cost (comprising of items
c. What are the potential risks involved in both approaches?
like registration charges, stamp duty, professional fees
How are the risks managed?
and statutory levies) as a percentage of property value?
d. How long does it typically take to develop properties?
How does the development time vary by segment, size
12. To what extent are the company’s key markets
and location? How does this compare with the time
concentrated or fragmented by scale of ownership
taken by peers?
of properties?
e. What is the company’s strategy to optimise returns from
its property portfolio? How are the decisions on when to a. How many REITs typically operate in a given segment,
sell and buy different properties made? market and sub-market?
f. What has been the track record of premium/capital gains b. What is the share of Top 3/Top 5 players in each
generated on property disposals so far? segment, market and sub-market?
c. How is the company placed in terms of market share in
8. What is the strategy of the company to add value to different segments and markets?
tenants and improve yields thereupon? d. How much pricing/negotiating power does the company
derive from its size and market share?
a. How much money is spent on repairs and maintenance,
as a proportion of rental income? How does the company
prioritise between different requirements? 13. What are the regulations that limit the company from
engaging in non-REIT activities?
b. How much is spent on improvements to properties? How
much incremental yields are derived as a result of the a. What is the minimum proportion of income that should
capex on these improvements? be derived from real-estate-related sources and
activities to qualify as REITs?
9. What is the typical service life of properties b. What is the cap on income share permitted to be earned
across segments? from non-real estate businesses?
a. How does the company manage property obsolescence c. Is there a minimum limit on the proportion of assets that
arising from factors like completion of service life, location is required to be invested/held in real estate?
falling out of favour with customers and tenants etc.?
14. Have there been instances of properties originally
10. What are the macroeconomic and demographic drivers intended for a certain segment being used by other
at play? How are these are expected to evolve? type of tenants?
a. What are the expected long-term economic growth rates
15. Is foreign ownership of land and property permitted in
in key markets of the company?
geographies where the company operates?
b. What are the trends in per capita income growth and
consumption in these markets? a. What are the regulations and restrictions on foreign
ownership and investment in land and property?
c. What is the average age, life expectancy and dependency
ratio of the population in key markets? b. To what extent is foreign ownership of, and investment
in, REITs permitted?
REITs
16. How successful has the company been in attracting 19. What are the details of the company’s financial
and retaining a top-tier management team? performance? How does that compare with the
performance of peers?
a. What is the experience profile and track record of the
management team? a. What is the ratio of Funds From Operations (FFO) as a
b. How does the size of the management team compare proportion of total rental income and portfolio value?
with the size of the company’s property portfolio? How b. What is the ratio of Adjusted Funds From Operations
does this compare with industry standards? (AFFO) and Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) as a
g. What are the staff costs and management expenses as proportion of total rental income and as a proportion of
a percentage of total expenses? How does the number portfolio value?
compare with that of peers? c. What are the FFO and FAD margins and yields?
d. What are the NOI margins and yields (capitalisation rate)?
17. How does the quality of properties of the company e. What is the methodology used to calculate FFO, AFFO
compare with those of its peers? and FAD?
a. How do the yields from the company’s properties compare
with the market yields across segments and locations? 20. What is the extent of the company’s financial leverage
b. What is the Net Operating Income/Net Property Income and payment capacity?
(NOI) per square metre across segments and locations? a. What are the target ranges used for monitoring different
measures of leverage including EBITDA/interest cost,
18. What is the company’s track record on operational gearing and fixed charge coverage ratio?
performance? How does the performance compare
with that of peers? 21. Does the company have a formally stated policy
a. What are the type, velocity (number of leases and on dividends?
volume of space leased out) and structure of leases that a. What are the details of the dividend policy? Is there a
are typically used? target payout ratio?
b. What is the weighted average lease tenure of the b. How does the policy compare with that of prevailing
company’s portfolio? practices in the industry?
c. What are the same-store occupancy rates for the overall
portfolio and across segments and markets? 22. What are the implications of the volatility of interest
d. What is the growth in renewal rental rates per unit for rates to company performance and distribution?
existing tenants and new tenants, across locations,
a. What is the preferred debt/financing structure?
market segments and quality of properties? How does
this vary for renewal and new leases? b. How much of the debt is on fixed rate payment versus
floating rate payment?
e. What has been the existing property rental NOI growth
rate of the portfolio? c. What is the policy on hedging interest rate exposure?
Does the company use instruments such as interest rate
f. How do the rental yields and NOI margins of new
swaps to manage risk?
properties compare with that of comparable existing
properties? If there is a divergence, when does the d. What has been the weighted average cost of debt and
company expect them to converge? of total capital over the last 3–5 years? How does this
compare with that of peers?
g. How much concessions/discounts does the company
typically provide for anchor tenants? What is the e. How is the interest cost likely to change for a per basis
potential impact of this on the pricing power, overall point change in interest rates?
yields and margins?
23. What are the details of the company’s funding capacity?
a. What is the ratio of secured debt to total assets?
b. What is the ratio of unencumbered assets to total
unsecured debt?
c. What is the maturity schedule and currency
denomination distribution of the debt?
d. What is the issuer and security credit rating received
from various credit rating agencies?
e. How have credit ratings evolved over time? How do they
compare with the industry’s overall credit profile?
REITs
Retail and Mall
24. What are the factors that drive demand for properties? 28. What is the profile of the tenants occupying the
company’s properties?
a. How far are the company’s properties located from
growth catchment areas (places which are a. What is the typical level of sales generated by the
frequented by shoppers and entertainment-seekers) tenants per unit of space?
and population centres? b. What proportion of their sales do the tenants spend on
b. For parking spaces, how does growth in availability of rental/lease payments?
space compare with growth in private car registrations? c. How diversified is the tenant mix across different types
of occupants (e.g. apparels, appliance and electronics
25. How do different macroeconomic, social and stores, grocery stores)?
demographic factors affect demand in key markets? d. How much of the portfolio (in terms of space and rental
a. Are the economies in key markets broadly driven by income) is occupied by tenants selling non-discretionary
investment or by consumption? products and services (e.g. food, staples, drugs,
education services)?
b. What are the household wealth and disposable income
levels in these markets? e. How much of the tenant base is rated investment grade
and above? If unrated, how does the company assess
c. What are the trends in real income growth?
their creditworthiness?
d. What are the trends in consumer spending growth?
e. What are the aggregate household debt levels in 29. What are the likely outcomes from the potential
these markets? How much of this is attributable to the transition from pure retail to retail + entertainment
consumer mortgage segment? model in key markets?
a. Is there a shift to a hybrid retail + entertainment model
26. How is the retail channel mix positioned and how is it
happening in the company’s key markets?
evolving in key markets with the advent of e-commerce?
b. How does the business outlook of the hybrid model
a. What is the share of e-commerce transactions in key compare with that of pure retail set-up? How is this
markets and how is it expected to evolve? expected to evolve in the next 3–5 years?
b. What are the broad trends in net store openings/space c. What effect will this shift have on the profile (location,
addition in the retail sector? What is the outlook for the size) of properties that will be in demand?
company’s tenants?
d. How suited is the company’s portfolio profile for adoption
c. How is the retail channel mix (hyper and supermarket/ of this evolving model?
department stores/convenience stores) evolving in
e. How will this shift towards a hybrid model influence the
key markets?
occupancy rates and yields?
d. What is the strategy of retailers to manage churn in the
f. How does the company plan to leverage this trend to
channel mix?
grow its business?
e. How will these strategies affect demand for retail space?
27. How is the growth of ride-sharing likely to affect

demand for parking space?
REITs
Office and Commercial Industrial
30. How close to the Central Business District (CBD), 36. How close to arterial roads, railways, ports and
suburban areas and airports are the company’s airports are the company’s properties located?
properties located?
37. What are the macroeconomic factors affecting
31. What is the outlook for job growth in the white-collar structural demand for industrial properties?
segment of the workforce?
a. How sensitive is demand for industrial properties to the
a. Which industries are expected to drive demand for broader economic investment cycle?
workspace in key markets? b. How long is the average investment cycle in key markets?
b. Specifically, what are the geographic locations where How is this evolving?
demand is expected to increase significantly? How does c. Are there any indicators adopted by the company to
the locational profile of company’s properties compare assess the outlook for capital investment in key markets?
against this outlook?
c. Are business closures expected in the markets where 38. What is the state of manufacturing activity in key
the company owns properties? How much impact on markets.? What are the future prospects?
occupancy and rental rates is expected on account of
such potential closures? a. What is the share of manufacturing in the economy of
the company’s key markets? What are the key industries
d. What are the trends in office capex/leasing costs in your
that constitute the segment?
key markets? How does this affect demand and rental
rates of your properties? b. How globally competitive is the local manufacturing
ecosystem in these markets?
32. What are the implications for job growth and c. How is the increasing adoption of industrial robotics and
workspace demand from the rise of automation? automation likely to influence demand for factory space?
33. What is the profile of the tenants occupying the 39. How does the rise of e-commerce influence demand for
company’s properties? warehouse space?
a. How are the tenants distributed based on their nature a. What is the share of e-commerce-based transactions
of operations (such as offices of industrial companies, in the company’s key markets? How is this expected
financial services firms, professional services, back- to evolve?
office services and government agencies)? b. How much warehouse space is currently being used by
b. How is the tenant mix split by the size of their the e-commerce industry? Do the key players typically
businesses: individual professionals, small businesses, own or rent warehouse space?
mid-size companies or large corporates? c. How does the company see the demand from
e-commerce industry evolving in the coming years? How
34. How creditworthy are the company’s tenants? much of this is likely to be fulfilled by rental or lease-
based engagements?
a. How much of the tenant base is rated investment grade
d. How does the company intend to leverage
this opportunity?
40. What is the profile of the tenants occupying the
35. What are the likely implications of a general
employment shift to teleworking and the rise of
providers of shared working spaces (e.g. WeWork)? a. How are the tenants distributed by the nature of their
operations (such as food processing, electronic device
makers, pharma manufacturing, and automobile
and components)?
b. How much of the demand for warehouse space is driven
by external trade?
c. How much of the tenant base is rated investment grade
REITs
Residential
41. What are the various factors that drive demand for the 44. How do macroeconomic, social and demographic
company’s properties? factors affect demand in key markets?
a. How closely located are the properties to the CBD, transit a. What is the typical household size in the company’s
points and other social infrastructure facilities? key markets?
b. What is the profile of tenants by different socio- b. What is the rate of household formation? How is
economic categories (SEC) and in terms of the nature this evolving?
of their occupation/profession/employment (such as c. What is the ratio of rental rates to household
factory workers, office-goers and professionals)? income levels?
d. How are the income levels expected to evolve in the
42. How do employment conditions influence rental next 3–5 years and beyond?
demand and prices in key markets?
e. How are these trends expected to influence demand
a. In the company’s experience, how much does the and rentals?
demand for properties typically vary per percentage f. How is the demand for affordable housing versus high-
point of change in the unemployment rate? end accommodation evolving?
b. What is the mix of number of units and rental income of g. If income levels are expected to increase over time, how
properties that have been let out to corporate versus is that likely to influence demand for larger dwelling units
individual tenants? How do the yields and stability of with better facilities?
rental income from these two categories compare?
c. Typically, how much time lag is observed before demand 45. What are the trends in home ownership in key markets
is affected by change in employment conditions? and its effect on rental housing?
d. How long does it usually take for demand to normalise
a. What are the home ownership rates in key markets?
after employment conditions improve?
b. What is the preference of residents between owning and
e. Is the degree of impact on demand the same in
renting houses? Are there cultural factors that favour
both directions — deterioration and improvement in
home ownership over rental?
employment conditions?
c. How affordable is home ownership as compared to
f. What is the impact on rental rates of new lettings?
renting a house? How does house purchase value
g. What is the typical tenure of rental/lease agreements? compare with income levels in key markets?
h. How quickly can the rates be revised for d. What is the observed relationship between income levels
existing agreements? and home ownership? Is there a certain income level above
which people typically prefer ownership over rental?
43. How do the structural changes in employment e. What are the overall household debt levels in key
influence demand for housing? markets? What proportion of this is attributable to
a. What are the trends in the nature of employment? Is residential mortgages?
there a shift towards temporary and contractual hiring? f. How prevalent is housing finance in key markets and
b. How frequently does the typical worker switch jobs/ how easy is it to obtain home loans?
relocate? Is the workforce being increasingly mobile with g. How favourable is the regulatory environment for growth
more frequent relocations? of the housing finance market?
c. What is the effect of these trends on the preference for h. How stringent are the down payment requirements and
owning versus renting houses? credit assessment norms?
d. How prevalent are education loans? To what extent do i. How does the tax structure in key markets influence the
these influence the ownership versus rental choices of dynamics between home ownership versus rental? How
new entrants to workforce? is this likely to evolve?
j. How will the home ownership rates influence demand for
housing rental in the long term?
REITs
Student Accommodation
46. How does the profile of the company’s properties 49. What are the factors that drive rental demand
compare with what prospective tenants seek? for properties?
a. What are the types and sizes of dwelling units preferred a. How far are the student housing properties located
by tenants across different SECs? from the campuses they intend to serve?
b. How does the profile of properties owned by the b. How sensitive is demand for student housing with
company match against this demand profile? enrolment numbers and new student starts?
c. Does the company focus on serving specific SECs? c. What are the enrolment numbers and new student
d. How does the demand-supply situation look across starts for the universities/institutions that the
different SECs? properties cater to?
e. Is there a structural undersupply in housing for specific
SECs? If so, does the company have any strategy to 50. How do macroeconomic, social and demographic
exploit such gaps? factors affect demand in key markets?
a. How prevalent is higher education in the company’s key
47. What is the government’s policy stance on housing and markets? How is the gross enrolment rate for higher
its implications for the company’s business? education expected to evolve?
a. Are there any regulatory mandates classifying certain b. How affordable is higher education as compared to
areas for lower rental rates? income levels?
b. Do any rent control regulations exist in key markets? c. What is the size of student age population in key
markets? How is it expected to evolve?
c. To what extent is the company’s portfolio vulnerable to
these mandates and regulations?
51. How does the profile of the company’s properties
d. What is the potential impact of these mandates and
compare with what prospective tenants seek?
regulations on the rental rates and yields?
a. What are the types of institutions that the properties
48. What are the implications of the rise of aggregators cater to? Specifically, are they targeted at undergraduate
(e.g. Airbnb) and providers of shared living spaces colleges, post-graduate and research universities,
(e.g. WeLive) for your business? vocational schools, speciality institutions like medical/
law schools or multidisciplinary universities?
b. What is the social and economic profile of the students
belonging to these institutions? Is the company’s
property profile aligned with this?
c. When is the enrolment season of these institutions?
Are the new property development plans of the
company broadly in sync with the enrolment season
of these institutions?
d. What is the typical duration of courses that students
undertake in these institutions?
52. What are the implications of the rise of aggregators

(e.g. Airbnb) and providers of shared living spaces
(e.g. WeLive) for your business?
REITs
Governance
53. What are the company’s ESG principles, practices and g. Has the company ever been accused of, investigated
track record? In case property development and or penalised for aggressive, coercive or fraudulent land
construction activity is outsourced to third parties, acquisition practices?
what are the company’s expectations from them in h. How has the company’s track record been with regard
terms of their ESG approach and disclosure? to the safety and fair treatment of labourers involved in
a. What are the company’s strategy, practices and track construction and maintenance of the properties?
record in reducing the energy intensity, water intensity, i. Has the company ever been accused of, investigated or
emissions intensity, waste generation and overall penalised for not obtaining prior approvals or violating
environmental and ecological footprint of the buildings approved plans?
and construction projects? j. What is the company’s policy and track record relating to
b. Has the company received, or has plans to receive, political donations?
certifications such as the Leadership in Energy and k. Has the company faced accusations of corruption,
Environmental Design (LEED) rating devised by the bribery or offering inappropriate inducements to
United States Green Building Council (USGBC)? obtain land use permissions, development permits or
c. What proportion of the company’s tenants are construction approvals?
equipped with smart metering applications for energy l. Does the company have a documented policy on ESG
and other utilities? and sustainability principles that govern the property
d. How much recycled, eco-friendly and locally sourced development agenda?
e. When the projects entail demolition of built structures,
how much of the material is typically recovered? What is
the procedure for handling recoveries and debris arising
from the demolition?
f. Have there been any instances when the company was
accused of, investigated or penalised for violating zoning
norms, appropriating ecologically sensitive land or
diverting land meant for other use?

SEMICONDUCTORS
OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR
One sure-fire way to kill any technology-related A COMPLEX GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM

conversation is to talk about vacuum tubes. Bear with us
though, because they’re incredibly important. Before there In a nutshell, the semiconductor value chain comprises six
were semiconductors in our electronic gadgets, we used stages, beginning with research and development, followed
vacuum tubes. Both vacuum tubes and semiconductors by design, manufacturing, assembly, testing and packing, and
carried out the same function, but the vacuum tube was finally, distribution. This is a complex value chain spanning
a monster that required immense physical space and different continents; in fact, a global R&D cum supply
energy. And at its height, the vacuum tube technology was chain ecosystem is how the industry is organised, as it is
employed in the ENIAC, the world’s first digital computer, impossible for one country to try to house all six stages in a
built in 1946. It weighed over 30 tons, consumed 200 single location and excel at every stage.
kilowatts of electricity, but was somewhat unreliable.
On the demand side, consumers unceasingly insist on
Semiconductors changed all that. The chip that powers more features, greater reliability, and higher speed. This
your mobile phone and computer is made possible has resulted in higher R&D expenditure (R&D on average
with semiconductors, which are minute and consume consumes about 15% to 20% of revenue) in a bid to improve
significantly less power compared to vacuum tubes. on current models. On the supply side, fierce competition
Without these ingenious semiconductors, there would be dictates that the eventual manufacturing, testing,
no internet, no tech giants, no international space stations, assembling, and packaging must be of sufficient scale to
and definitely no Facebook. Simply put, they allowed us to enjoy low unit cost.
progress into the information age.
Satisfying both criteria requires completely different sets of
Today semiconductors continue to drive our digital economy; logistical infrastructures, not to mention human resources
our increasingly technology-reliant society needs even more and working environments. And this is why chip designers
circuits, chips, and microchips. Semiconductors are also the such as Intel, AMD, and ARM are in the US Silicon Valley,
foundation of the “Industrial Revolution 4.0” as necessary whereas manufacturers and assembly lines like Foxconn
components of the growing number of smart production and Flextronics are in China. The industry has optimised
facilities connected with the Internet of Things (IoT). production through a globally interdependent ecosystem
that pools up the best each country or economy can offer.
In this investment framework, we will first take you on However, this arrangement may change in the future
an exploratory journey through the global semiconductor following the US ban on China’s technology champion,
industry landscape, now worth almost US$500 billion in Huawei. Chinese companies will definitely attempt to develop
annual sales. Thereafter, we will proceed to give you an their own chips and machines that manufacture these chips,
analytical framework to assess investment opportunities in including chip designing capabilities.
this sector.
A SHIFTING LANDSCAPE
In addition to being complex and in production in multiple
continents, the industry is also far from static. Currently,
integrated device manufacturers (IDM) such as Intel, Micron,
and Samsung continue to dominate the landscape. However,
fabless foundries (which focus exclusively on design while
outsourcing fabrication) such as AMD, Qualcomm, and
Broadcom are slowly but surely evolving into a force to be
reckoned with. This shift is inevitable as products become
ever more sophisticated, increasing the need for further
specialisation.
SEMICONDUCTORS
FUNDAMENTALS AMONG INCREASING COMPLEXITY PRODUCT DEMAND AND PRICING
The reach, complexity, and ever-changing landscape of the Now that you’ve grasped the market structure, it’s time to
semiconductor industry present a challenge for investors delve into company-level factors. Examine its shipment
looking to gain exposure to firms within the industry. How among various end-user markets and product segments.
do you make sense of an industry with so many fast-moving Scrutinise shipment growth expectations, including how
sections and uncover the fundamental factors they need to much demand a company estimates will be driven by the
create a robust analytical framework? product upgrade cycle, market expansion, or new products
and markets.
Answering that question is precisely our key objective, and
we will begin by categorising a company by its position on You’ve already studied general pricing strategies. Now,
the value chain. examine how a company stacks up. Is the company taking
advantage of its pricing power? Or is the company suffering
from pricing pressure? Peer analysis will help shed light
on this; dig deeper to inspect if it has higher pricing power
A LINK IN THE CHAIN compared to its competitors. If the company is enjoying
higher pricing ability, determine the reasons for this ability.
The first step is to determine the position of a company It could include presence of proprietary technology,
on the value chain: Is it an integrated device manufacturer intellectual property, or uncommon products, technology, or
doing both design and fabrication, or a fabless foundry, or manufacturing techniques.
a semiconductor foundry? While there are many factors
common to all three, there are also differences; so it is Finally, understand its pricing along the product life-cycle
integral you know where a company lies on the value chain. curve. Do pay particular attention to how long it can sustain
higher prices before the inevitable drop.
From there, look at the company’s presence across the
various market segments: memory, logic, or standard chips.
Find out exactly what products are in its portfolio and which
end-user market each product serves. OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL METRICS
Cost structures must be examined. Review both fixed
and variable costs across the company’s product line
GETTING A GRASP OF THE MARKET STRUCTURE and contrast those numbers with its competitors. Other
financial metrics you should closely look into include free
Next, get a feel of the market structure the company is cash flow generation as well as gross, operating, and net
operating in. Generally, the industry is one where high buyer margins. Given the international nature of the industry,
concentration is not uncommon. It is essential to learn just don’t neglect examining the foreign exchange hedging
how concentrated are buyers in a company’s end-user strategies, if any at all.
markets. Are there only a few large buyers, and if so, what
effect does that have on the firm? Depending on a company’s position in the value chain, there
are specific queries you should make. For instance, if the
Demand cyclicality is another crucial element to consider. company is an IDM, does it also offer contract manufacturing
Establish how various macroeconomic factors might affect services to third parties, and if so, what percentage of the
product seasonality. Factors like GDP growth, consumer foundry capacity is being utilised? Thereafter, do perform a
sentiment, corporate spending, and changes in disposable margin comparison between the two.
income could all have a significant impact on demand and
pricing. For fabless foundries, work out how vulnerable the company
might be to increasing concentration in fabrication
Speaking of pricing, you should also study the firm’s capacity. Supply chain risks are real, especially given the
strategies – these would typically vary according to where interconnected global supply chain. As for semiconductor
a product lies in its life cycle. An excellent way to do this is foundries, explore metrics like foundry capacity, utilisation,
by researching a company’s peers or competitors pricing downtime statistics, and the lag time between capital
policies. While you’re at it, survey the competitive landscape: expenditure and revenue generation.
Is it more concentrated or fragmented? How is market share
distributed, and what are the barriers to entry?
SEMICONDUCTORS
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH
While the semiconductor industry is not a significant Being a driver of the digital economy has its drawbacks;
contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, the technology evolves at a rapid pace, and even dominant
manufacturing process still requires the use of incumbents can fall if they don’t keep up. Two primary
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), which have a greater impact structural demand drivers you need to take into account
on global warming compared to carbon dioxide. Critics of are markets and technology. Consider emerging markets
the industry also point to potential groundwater pollution, with relatively low penetration levels of internet and
although official statistics show otherwise. smartphones – a company’s presence in such markets
might be a long-term growth driver.
As such, a large part of assessing environmental, social,
and governance factors in the industry comes down to On the technology side, the data show bit-density growth
environmental issues. Does the company routinely measure slowing across the board. Find out how the company is
its environmental footprint? What are its consumption and planning to tackle this issue. Will it be through financial
emission statistics, and what steps is it taking to reduce its measures, facility upgrades, or investments into emerging
footprint? Enquire into whether it has a concrete strategic technologies such as machine intelligence and IoT?
roadmap on the environmental front, and probe its track
record in this area. We wrote this framework to provide you with a systematic
way to cut through the evolving complexity of the
The company’s supply chain also deserves your scrutiny. semiconductor industry. These guidelines may be short and
Given the long-reaching supply chain, investigate sweet, so use them as your base from which to launch your
whether any dubious minerals could have been used in analysis and give yourself a head start on your investment
its manufacturing process. More importantly, examine journey.
the method it uses to track its suppliers to ensure no
inadvertent use of such minerals.
About the Authors


SEMICONDUCTORS
02
MARKET
POSITION Competitor Supplier
market share concentration
Supply Buyer
chain risk concentration 03 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
01 DEMAND
DRIVERS
Capital and technological Proprietary
requirements technology Slowing bit End-user market
density growth penetration levels
Product End-user New

upgrade market end-users
cycle expansion and
markets Macroeconomic Emerging Use of internet, PCs, and
factors technologies smartphones in end-markets
Consumer Corporate
incomes
and
spending
and
Demand Pricing
cyclicality strategies
04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
confidence sentiment
SEMICONDUCTORS
A step-by-step guide
08 FABLESS
FOUNDRIES
to analyzing the
semiconductors industry Free cash R&D Per-unit Book-to-bill
flow expenditure costs ratios
Gross, FX volatility Bit shipments Average

Foundry Fabrication costs operating, and and volume selling
concentration risk net margins hedging growth price
07 FOUNDRIES AND
FABRICATORS
06 05 ESG
FACTORS
INTEGRATED DEVICE
MANUFACTURERS
Utilisation rate Utility optimisation Measuring Emissions and Preventing conflict

and cyclicality strategy environmental waste reduction minerals in the
Third-party Foundry capacity footprint strategy supply chain
manufacturing and margin
services comparison

SEMICONDUCTORS
1. Product portfolio and end-user markets 5. The drivers of structural growth
a. How much presence does the company have across a. What are the penetration levels of the company’s end-
the different market segments? These include memory, user markets and products across various regions
logic, standard chips and system on a chip. and countries?
b. What are the various products in the company’s portfolio? b. What are the penetration levels of the internet, PCs
c. What are the end user markets for each of the and smartphones?
company’s products? c. Which end-user markets and products have the potential
d. How does the performance and price of the company’s for structural growth?
products compare with that of its competitors? d. Which regions and countries offer space for
structural growth?
2. Which factors impact demand for the company’s products? e. What are the emerging technologies, such as Machine
Intelligence and Internet of Things, that could drive
a. How much volume and revenue does the company derive long-term growth?
from different end-user markets and product segments?
f. In the light of these opportunities, how do the
b. What is the company’s volume growth expectation for its company’s product portfolio and capabilities compare
end-user markets and product segments? with those of its competitors? Are there gaps?
c. How much demand is driven by the product upgrade cycle g. Where applicable, how does the company intend to fill
of the company’s end-user markets? these gaps and build the required capabilities?
d. How much demand is driven by expansion in the
company’s end-user markets?
6. Trends in bit density growth
e. What is the demand that arises from newer end-user
products and markets? a. What is the company’s strategy to counter a potential
slowdown in bit density growth?
b. Is the company exploring any technologies that could
3. How cyclical and seasonal is the demand for the
tackle any slowdown?
c. Does the company intend to upgrade its design and
a. What macroeconomic factors affect cyclical demand for fabrication facilities?
the company’s products?
b. What is the impact of GDP growth and expectations?
7. The competitive situation in the company’s industry
c. How much of the company’s revenue is derived from the
consumer and corporate end-user segments? a. How concentrated or fragmented is the market for the
d. What is the impact of changes in disposable incomes
and consumer sentiment on demand from the b. What is the market share of the top three/ top five
consumer segment? players across the different products where the
company has a presence?
e. What is the impact of corporate spending and outlook on
demand from the corporate segment? c. Which factors facilitate or inhibit the entry of new players?
d. What are the capital and technology requirements for
new players to enter the market?
4. What are the factors affecting the pricing of the
8. What are the company’s product, technology and
a. What pricing strategies are adopted in the industry?
competitive strengths?
b. What is the company’s pricing strategy and how does it
vary from that of its peers? a. Does the company possess a unique or uncommon
product, technology or manufacturing technique?
c. Does the company have different pricing strategies for
new, mature and legacy products? b. Does the company possess a significant competitive
advantage in any product segment?
d. What is the typical duration after which the company
considers a product as a mature and, subsequently, a c. Does the company own any proprietary technology or
legacy offering? intellectual property (IP) in any product segments or
manufacturing technique?
d. How many patents does the company own? What are the
current or potential applications that these can be used for?
e. Is the company involved in any disputes relating to
patents and IP?
SEMICONDUCTORS
Integrated (design and fabrication)
semiconductor makers
9. New technology 14. Does the company run both semiconductor design and
fabrication operations?
a. Does the company prefer in-house R&D, acquisitions
or licensing? a. Does the company offer contract manufacturing
services to third parties?
10. What is the level of buyer concentration in the b. If so, how much of the company’s foundry capacity is
company’s end-user markets? used for contract manufacturing versus the manufacture
if its own products?
a. What is the company’s share of top three/top five buyers
c. What is the company’s mix of volume and revenue from
in its product segments?
contract manufacturing versus end-to-end products?
b. How much pricing pressure does the company
d. How do the margins from the company’s two
experience due to buyer concentration? How does it
operations compare?
manage this?
15. What is the company’s expenditure on R&D (including

11. How much pricing power does the company have?
the design of its own products) versus the technology
a. What is the company’s market share in different product used in manufacturing and fabrication? How does this
segments and across the various end-user markets that compare with that of its peers and how is it expected
it caters to? to evolve?
b. Does the company have a leading presence in any a. Which manufacturing process and techniques are the
product segments or end-user markets? company most bullish on over the next 3–5 years?
c. Are there areas where the company’s product pricing b. Which product segments is the company focusing its
power is higher than its peers? What gives the company R&D efforts on currently?
this advantage?
c. Which end-user markets does the company target with
d. Typically, how long is the company able to sustain the its R&D efforts?
initial higher prices of its new products?
a. How much of the lifetime volume of a typical product is
16. How much is the company’s capital expenditure as a
the company able to sell at the initial higher price?
percentage of sales? How does this compare with that
of its peers and how is it expected to evolve?
a. What is the company’s capex in its fabrication
measures? How does this compare with that of its
facilities (fabs)?
peers and how is this expected to evolve?
b. What is the ratio of this as capex a percentage of sales
a. What is the company’s volume growth in terms of derived from the fabs?
bit shipments?
b. Have there been any changes in the company’s average
selling price for its different products?
c. What is the company’s book-to-bill ratio? How does this
vary across products?
d. What are the company’s per-unit fixed and variable costs?
13. Performance on financial measures – how does this

compare with that of the company’s peers?
a. What are the company’s gross, operating and net margins?
b. How much free cash flow does the company generate
as a percentage of sales?
c. What is the company’s expenditure on research and
development (R&D) as a percentage of its sales?
d. What is the company’s hedging strategy to manage
volatility in its input costs and foreign exchange?
SEMICONDUCTORS
Silicon foundries/ Fabless semiconductor makers
semiconductor fabricators (fabs)
17. What are the company’s typical capacity 20. How vulnerable is the company to the rising
utilization rates? concentration of fabrication capacity?
a. How cyclical and seasonal is the rate of utilization? a. How many different foundries does the company
b. How does the company optimize utilization? outsource fabrication of its products to?
c. How does the company forecast demand for its b. How much does the company pay for the fabrication of
fab capacity? its different products, at different volumes?
c. How vulnerable are the company’s margins to
increases in fabrication costs due to increasing
18. Details of the company’s fab capacity
concentration of capacity?
a. How much fabrication capacity does the company own? d. How does the company manage the supply-chain risks
b. How much capacity is it adding? When are these new that arise out of fabrication capacity concentration?
capacities expected to be ready for production?
c. How does the company forecast capacity requirements
and plan for expansion?
19. The operational performance and capital efficiency of

the company’s fabs?
a. What is the typical operational downtime rates of the
company’s fabs?
b. How much yield is the company able to achieve per unit
of silicon wafer processed in its fabs?
c. What is the typical lead time before the company’s
capex (on fabs) starts to generate revenue?
d. What is the company’s medium and long-term capex
outlook by technology?
e. What is the company’s capex-to-sales ratio?
f. How much free cash flow does the company generate
as a percentage of capex invested?
SEMICONDUCTORS
Environmental, social and
governance factors (ESG)
21. What are the company’s ESG principles, practices and
track record?
a. Does the company perform a life cycle assessment of its
products to estimate its environmental footprint?
b. What is the energy consumed by the company’s products
in operation? What measures does it use to quantify this?
What is the firm’s roadmap for improving efficiencies?
c. How much packaging material does the company use
while shipping its products? Does the company have
plans to reduce packaging and use recycled material?
d. Does the company have a strategy for managing the
e-waste generated by its products?
e. What is the emission, energy, water consumption
and pollutant release intensity of the company’s
manufacturing processes? What steps is it taking to
improve performance on these fronts?
f. Does the company use any conflict minerals in its
products or manufacturing processes? How does it
track and ensure these minerals are sourced in a fair and
transparent manner?

SHIPBUILDING AND OFFSHORE MARINE

THE SHIPPING FORECAST — UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTMENT
FUNDAMENTALS OF THE SHIPYARD BUSINESS
Anyone who has walked or cycled along Singapore’s East ECONOMIC ICEBERG, RIGHT AHEAD!
Coast Park will be familiar with the sight of hundreds of
commercial ships anchored in the Strait. It’s one of the Many shipyards were wrong-footed by the most recent
few places in the world where the public comes in close slowdown in global demand, which was partly driven by
contact with the floating cogs that power the global softness in the Chinese economy. The impact was most
economy. keenly felt at lower-end shipyards, which are vulnerable to
changes in volume and tighter price competition.
Indeed, if any of those people spending a leisurely Sunday
at the beach were to contemplate how the sports shoes Higher-end shipyards that manufacture specialized
on their feet or the bike they are riding were transported to equipment, such as semisubmersible oilrigs, were not
the island, then they’d have only to look out to sea. That is spared either. When oil prices crashed below US$50, a
precisely the direction in which we are heading with this large number of orders were dishonored, with clients
high-level analysis of the shipbuilding and offshore marine forfeiting deposits of up to 20% (which often amounted to
industry. millions of dollars).
So, let’s cast off and embark on an investment journey that

will guide you in making the correct financial decisions. OVER THE HORIZON
On a positive note, shipping remains the top choice for
A PERFECT STORM global cargo transportation, accounting for more than 90%
of all trade. In fact, the mammoth container ships still carry
The shipbuilding and offshore marine industry specializes in 70% of the world’s goods, including bikes and shoes.
the manufacture and maintenance of oceangoing vessels,
which includes everything from cargo ships, tankers, and
oilrigs to passenger liners. In recent years, however, the THE VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE
industry has faced significant headwinds, with overcapacity
at the shipyards in mainland China, escalating trade wars, How, then, should we analyze the shipbuilding and
and oil-price weakness combining to ensure that this sector offshore marine industry?
is at the center of a perfect storm.
As always, begin by establishing which products and
Given its labor-intensive characteristics, companies often services the company you are researching provides. This
tussle with trade unions and local regulations. From a could include ship construction, maintenance, repair, or
capital expenditure perspective, the industry requires renovation. Also look at the types of vessels it focuses on,
significant outlay to operate expensive docking facilities such as cargo ships and cruise liners or special-purpose
and invest in highly customized tools and equipment. vehicles, including ice-cutters and tugs. Armed with this
information, explore how much revenue your company
derives from each of these services, pinpointing its key
customer segments.
With solid knowledge of the company’s structure, examine
how changes in the economic climate will affect revenue
in each element of its operations. Look ahead and study
the long-term factors that will influence growth. How will
these evolve? Examples include the rise of emerging
economies, such as China and India, as well as the
changing profile of the energy market.
SELF-ASSEMBLY ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS

Another force in play might not be immediately obvious The days of throwing what we don’t need into the sea are
— that is, the effect of disruptive technologies, such as hopefully numbered. With this in mind, has the company
smart manufacturing and three-dimensional printing, invested in solutions to reduce various discharges like
on the industry. The ability to produce parts near to the ballast water, gray-and-black water, and bilge from the
source of demand will help shipyards reduce costs. vessels it builds? Another valuable enquiry is to check
From a spares-and-repairs perspective, however, this whether the firm participates in industry forums, such
new technology may be a double-edged sword, as ship as the Sustainable Shipping Initiative, the Clean Cargo
operators could bypass shipyards altogether and generate Working Group, and Green Ship of the Future.
the parts they need while at sea. It is worth ascertaining
whether the company has a position on one or both THE CAPTAIN’S LOG
scenarios.
It’s time to visit the company’s engine room by looking at
LABOR PAINS? its books. Start your enquiries by establishing how the
firm has performed on operational measures. What has
That said, it doesn’t matter where a shipyard is located been its growth in terms of order-book size, services
if you can’t source and retain a skilled workforce. This provided, customer type, and complexity of the vessels
point should prompt you to analyze the strength and being built or repaired? How do these compare with those
depth of the current labor force and enquire about of its peers? Next, take stock of the various factors that
local institutions that specialize in marine engineering, affect costs. Examples include components, supplies, and
shipbuilding, and naval engineering. Find out, too, whether equipment. How do these affect demand? Finally, turn to
risks are associated with trade unions. Is there a history of financial measures and, among other things, investigate
industrial action by the workforce? the company’s working-capital requirements as a
proportion of order value. How are these funded?
ROLLING IN THE DEEP
HAPPY SAILING
We must mention that oil-and-gas exploration is
progressively moving to the deep sea. Learn about the This framework has taken you on a short cruise around
company’s presence, capabilities, and strategy in this the shipbuilding and offshore marine industry. Hopefully, it
segment. Simultaneously, the demand for offshore wind acts as a solid base for a longer journey across the sector.
power likely will rise. Does the business intend to expand
into the production of windmills? Bon voyage!
About the Authors


02
GAUGING
Product-Service
revenue mix
Customer segment
performance
Working capital
management
Cost profile Order book
PERFORMANCE
Service Geographic Customer

03 KEY AREAS OF
ANALYSIS
01
revenue revenue mix segment
revenue
HEADWINDS FACING Strength and depth Super-sizing Competition

THE INDUSTRY of local labor force adaptability and barriers
to entry
Macro-econo Oil price Strong trade SHIP BUILDING Adoption of new

technology
Local policy
and regulation
mic issues sensitivity unions AND OFFSHORE
i.e. trade war
MARINE INDUSTRY
Large CAPEX Local regulations

step-by-step process of
analyzing the ship
building and offshore
marine industry
04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
07 ESG FACTORS
Vessel specific Fixed and variable Operational
revenue costs vs. order value costs
Emissions control
and fuel efficiency
Participation in
industry-wide ESG forums 05 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
06 OFFSHORE MARINE
CONSIDERATION
Emerging Decentralisation of Commodities
economies manufacturing trade growth
Presence in deep Services Oil price Revenue from

sea offshore provided management non-energy
segment segment Availability of talent Coastal vs Inland transport


1. What are the products and services provided by the implications for demand for shipping capacity?
the company? d. What are the trends in traffic through coastal shipping
a. What are the services provided by the company - ship and inland water transport and consequent demand for
building, maintenance, repair, renovation or any other capacity?
services?
b. Which customer segments does the company cater to: 5. Is manufacturing expected to become more
transportation (passenger, cargo), military, cruise lines decentralised in the backdrop of emerging technologies
or any other defined segment group? such as smart manufacturing and 3D printing?
c. What are the types of ships built or repaired: barges, a. What are the likely implications for demand for shipping
cargo ships, passenger ships, cruise liners, oil and gas capacity?
rigs, military vessels and special purpose ships (like b. What are the areas likely to be disrupted by technology-
dredgers, search and rescue rigs, tugs, ice cutters, driven innovations? How does the company intend to
pollution fighting rigs and research vessels)? leverage these opportunities and address threats?
d. What are the types of cargo ships built or repaired by the
company: bulk carriers, general cargo ships, oil tankers,
6. How is super-sizing—the trend of the average size and
crude carriers, container carriers?
capacity of ships increasing—viewed by the company?
a. What are the likely implications of the conversion of
2. What is the gap between trade volume and fleet
single hull tankers to double hull tankers?
capacity in the key markets, segments and cargo types
served by the ships that the company builds or repairs? b. How flexible are the company’s facilities and equipment
to adapt to build and repair larger ships and double hull
a. How sensitive is demand for shipping capacity to the tankers?
trends in trade deficit/surplus and overall demand and
c. How is the average service life of ships evolving and
supply of goods in regions, segments and cargo types to
what are the implications for fleet replacement cycles?
which the company caters to?
d. How does the scenario look for the company, in the
backdrop of specific segments where it has significant
3. What are the company’s different revenue streams? presence?
a. What is the mix of revenues by type of service provided:
ship building, renovation, repair, maintenance and other 7. What are the likely implications from the evolving
services? profile of the energy market?
b. How much revenue is derived from key customer
a. How much of the demand for crude tanker capacity is
segments: transportation (passenger, cargo), military,
likely to be lost to long-distance pipelines in the medium
cruise lines and other
to long term?
c. What is the mix of revenues by size (by capacity) and
b. What is the likely impact on demand for bulk and crude
complexity (general purpose vs. specialised) of vessels
carrier capacity due to shifts away from coal and crude
built or repaired?
oil towards natural gas and renewables?
a. What is the geographical mix of revenues?
c. What are the implications of these trends for the ship
building and offshore marine industry? How are the
4. What are the long-term factors that influences consequences likely to be managed?
company growth? How are these expected to evolve?
a. What are the implications of commodity-driven trade 8. What is the company’s outlook on the link between trade
growth from the rise of emerging economies such as through the high seas and world economic activity?
China and India to demand for shipping capacity in the
a. Is the link between economic growth and trade expected
long term?
to strengthen or weaken, in the backdrop of trends such
b. What does the shifting of manufacturing locations on as rebasing and decentralisation of manufacturing, shift
the basis of cost of production, availability of talent from fossil fuels to renewables and shift from ownership
or technology portend to the demand for shipping to sharing economy?
capacity?
b. Is the share of sea transport in world trade likely to
c. Are production and consumption likely to get increase or decrease?
geographically closer or farther, on average? How
c. What are the implications to demand for shipping
different is this likely to be for different goods? What are
capacity? How are these challenges likely to be met?
9. What is the level of market concentration and entry 12. How does the policy environment affect the industry in
barriers? locations where the company operates?
a. What are the Top 5 regions/countries accounting for the a. What are the subsidies, incentives and other supportive
highest share of orders? measures available in areas where the company
b. What is the extent of market concentration? What is the operates?
market share of the Top 5/Top 10 players in the industry? b. What are the import quotas and export controls in
c. What are the major barriers and capital requirements for existence? Are there restrictions in selling to the
new players to enter the industry? domestic market?
d. How important is the availability of fiscal and policy c. Are there any existing or proposed import taxes, levies
support for the entry of new players in the industry? or tariffs for components, equipment and supplies in
countries where the company’s yards are located?
e. What is the state of the industry from the perspective
of consolidation of ship yards? What is the company’s d. What are the existing or proposed import tariffs or non-
strategy? tariff barriers in countries which are export markets for
the company?
e. Are there cabotage restrictions in markets the company
10. How does the location of yards influence the business?
operates?
a. What are the inherent economic (like skilled and
competitively priced labour and cheaper power) or other
13. What are the challenges in sourcing and retaining a
advantages (like access to deep water port, coastline
skilled work force?
or relevant type of waterfront and presence of a strong
shipping tradition) available in locations where the a. How does the labour market look, on cost and availability
company has yards? of skilled labour, in areas where the company operates?
b. How mature and developed is the ecosystem of b. Are there mature and established institutions for training,
ancillaries—steel mills, engine builders, component design, research and development in the areas of marine
makers (like propellers, boilers, seawater treatment engineering, ship building and naval engineering?
plants and navigation equipment), engineering and c. What are the risks associated with trade unions? What is
design bureaus —around the company’s yards? What the minimum wage criteria and what are the implications
is the proportion of inputs sourced from the local to costs?
ecosystem?
d. Has there been any history of industrial action by the work
c. How easy and economical is the availability of suitable force? How does the company manage such situations?
land parcels for locating the yards and plants?
e. What is the mix of permanent employees vs. contractual
d. Is adequate power supply available at competitive prices workers? How is the churn rate and lower employer loyalty
where the company’s yards are located? arising from higher use of contract personnel managed?
e. Are the company’s repair facilities located on key f. What are the challenges posed by regulations on
maritime trade routes? employing non-local work force?
g. What is the perception of the foreign workforce among
11. What are the observed trends in the location of ship- local population and workforce?
building bases?
a. Has there been an industry-wide shift in the location of 14. How has the performance been on operational
ship-building bases? What are the emerging locations? measures? How do these compare with those of peers
b. What are the factors causing these shifts – like capacity and how are these expected to evolve?
constraints in mature locations, lower costs in emerging a. What has been the growth in terms of the size of
locations, shifting demand profile, evolving policy the order book, new orders and deliveries, by service
environment, government incentives and tariff and non- provided, customer segment and the type, size and
tariff barriers? complexity of vessels built or repaired?
c. How does the location profile of the company’s facilities b. What are the costs as a percentage of revenue? What
compare against these industry trends? What is the are the various components?
company’s strategy in this aspect?
c. What is the nominal and productivity-adjusted labour
cost as a percentage of total? How is this evolving?

Offshore Marine
15. What are the various factors impacting costs? How do 17. What are the products and services provided to the
these affect demand? offshore marine industry?
a. What are the major input costs governing the company’s a. What are the various services provided to the offshore
operations? marine industry?
b. What is the share of input costs (components, supplies b. What is the mix of order book, new orders, deliveries and
and equipment) from imports? What is the sensitivity of revenues by different product and service offerings?
these costs to fluctuations in exchange rates? c. How sensitive to changes in oil prices is the demand for
c. How does the location of ship yards affect transportation these products and services?
costs for components, supplies and equipment? How d. What is the company’s strategy to manage volatility
does this in turn affect the choice of suppliers? arising from changes in oil prices?
e. What is the proportion of revenues from the non-energy
16. How has the performance been on financial measures? segment (like offshore wind-mills and port-support
How do these compare with those of peers and how are vessels)?
a. What are the working capital requirements as a 18. How much presence does the company have in the deep
proportion of order value? How is this funded? sea offshore segment?
b. What is the company’s gearing level and how does it a. What proportion of the company’s products and services
compare with its peers? cater to the deep-sea vs nearshore/offshore marine
c. Is the company able to raise funds at competitive rates? segment?
How does the company stand in terms of interest cover? b. In the backdrop of oil and gas exploration progressively
What is the sensitivity of interest expenses and interest moving deep sea, what is the company’s presence,
cover to changes in interest rates? capabilities and strategy for the segment?
d. What are the commitments pertaining to bank c. Does the company intend to leverage the likely surge in
guarantees the company is required to provide to demand for offshore wind-mills?
counterparties? What is the cost involved?
e. What are the gross, operating and net margins? How
does it compare in relation to its peers?
f. What is the sensitivity of revenue, costs and profitability
to changes in currency exchange rates?

Governance
19. What are the details of the company’s ESG principles,
generation and overall environmental and ecological
footprint during ship building, repair and maintenance
operations?
b. How much recycled, eco-friendly and locally sourced
material are used during shipbuilding?
c. How does energy consumption, emission, water use
and waste generation intensity of the ships and other
vessels developed by the company, during their normal
functioning, compare with industry benchmarks? What
are the initiatives taken to reduce these?
d. Does the company invest in developing solutions to
reduce, or make less hazardous, various discharges like
ballast water, grey and black water and bilge water from
the vessels it builds?
e. What are the measures such as anti-fouling systems
implemented to eliminate or minimise transfer of invasive
aquatic species through the vessels built by the
company?
f. Are systems and mechanisms implemented to reduce,
reuse and recycle water used during normal functioning
of the vessels?
g. How has been the company’s track record regarding
the safety and fair treatment of workers employed in its
facilities? What is the total number of fatalities, days
lost and injuries in relation to total number of personnel
employed?
h. What is the proportion of total work sub-contracted or
outsourced?
i. What is the proportion of the local population in the
workforce?
j. How much is the typical spend on maintenance and
safety at the company’s facilities?
k. Does the company participate in industry fora such as
The Sustainable Shipping Initiative (SSI), The Clean Cargo
Working Group (CCWG) and Green Ship of the Future?

EDUCATION
BEST IN CLASS: THE INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS OF THE EDUCATION SECTOR
Citius, altius, fortius—faster, higher, stronger—may be the often lead to a rise in the number of student opting
Olympic motto, but it also reflects a basic human desire to for higher studies, as job vacancies are limited and
improve on what we have already achieved. This is precisely determined parents will somehow find the money to pay
the case with education, where parents—be they millionaires for college fees. Of course, you should also attempt to
or daily wage earners—instinctively want their children to predict how these trends will evolve.
transcend the achievements of previous generations. This
desire is particularly evident in emerging markets. • Third, note the broad economic mix in the company’s
markets. How is the economy split between the
Fortunately, education is no longer the preserve of the agriculture, manufacturing, and services sector, and
privileged few and is accepted as a fundamental right, which of these areas employs the most people? Activity
with children in nearly all parts of the world required rather in the services sector—an excellent barometer of the
than expected to attend school. Viewed in investment health of an economy—and the growth prospects for
terms, education is a nondiscretionary service, or to knowledge-based industries are increasingly vital
be more precise, the education industry is emotionally determinants of employability and the nature of courses
nondiscretionary. This is particularly true in countries that the education systems need to offer.
where the gap between the demand for education and
its supply is significant. Typically, these are economies
where the median age of the population is young and the DO THE COURSES WORK?
public education system is inadequate. Parents in these
countries, therefore, strive to give their children at least a Having established an outline of the economic conditions
secondary, if not a tertiary, education. in the target company’s domestic market, appraise the
portfolio of services offered by the company. Are the
What does this mean in terms of sector analysis? First, we services relevant to the company’s customer base and is
need to separate education into two groups: 1) taxpayer- its revenue model scalable?
funded public institutions, and 2) private, fee-paying
establishments run by local or multinational institutes. We Services can cover everything from grammar schools,
examine these latter, investible entities in this paper. colleges, and universities, to private tuition, vocational
training, and test preparation. Build a picture of how
This framework is not a definitive guide to the sector, but is these services are broken down (e.g., undergraduate,
intended as a starting point that invites and encourages you postgraduate, doctorate) and look at the types of courses
to study the sector’s investment factors in greater depth. on offer. In developing countries with tourist appeal, you
should see more institutions offering hospitality studies.
Conversely, advanced markets will focus on business, arts,
THE LOCAL MARKET AND ECONOMY science, and engineering.
Let’s begin by examining employment conditions in a Because education is a service industry, how well the
company’s domestic market and how those conditions company delivers its services is another crucial factor.
affect the demand for education. Screen the number of outlets or centres the company
operates and see how many students are enrolled. At the
• First, assess the level of importance employers and same time, size up the revenue and operating profit per
students place on educational qualifications. As student in each of these facilities. Does the company offer
an economy becomes more knowledge oriented, it its full range of courses across all outlets? This will help you
will require more specialised skills; the demand for to judge the strength of the business, as broad exposure
more sophisticated and higher levels of education is, doesn’t always translate into deep market penetration.
therefore, likely to rise.
We would be remiss if we provided a framework
• Second, gauge the effect of unemployment rates on for analysing this sector without mentioning how
student enrolments. Demand for basic education could technology is disrupting the education space. The
be noncyclical while demand for higher education could distance learning market is booming, particularly in Asia
actually be countercyclical: contracting economies will
EDUCATION
where, among other things, a shortage of qualified teachers enrolment rates and check out the proportion of students who
in various fields is forcing students to seek online solutions. fund their studies through these means.
Find out if a company’s key markets have easy access to
inexpensive, high-speed internet connectivity. Determine the Another factor to be aware of is the proportion of overseas
company’s mix of student enrolments and revenue between students using the company’s facilities. From a financial
on-campus and virtual delivery and how that ratio compares perspective, these students provide an additional income
with that of the company’s competitors. stream—in some cases, foreign student fees are higher—and
give an institution the distinction of being an “international
From a revenue perspective, try to determine how the centre of learning.”
company makes its money. Is it from components such as
tuition fees, books, or fees? Follow up by observing how
quickly the company expects these segments to grow in the SCHOOL RULES
next three to five years. Does the firm intend to expand its
operations and offer courses in any new fields of study? These Take a moment to explore the regulatory side of the
determinations can also apply geographically, so inspect any education sector, paying attention to education policies in
plans by the company to open institutions elsewhere. the company’s markets and the prevailing attitudes toward
private providers. This could include the licensing system
in each market. Moreover, learn about the challenges that
PUBLIC VERSUS PRIVATE education companies may face—could any legislation in
the pipeline affect their operations, either favourably or
The education sector faces competition not only from firms unfavourably?
offering similar products but also from public institutions.
Attitudes toward private education differ from country to
country, with some viewing it as an essential service that ESG INTELLIGENCE
helps to compensate for a weak public system while others
class it as a luxury item. Either way, you must understand the Whether you work in finance or are an investor, awareness
strength of the state-run school system in the company’s of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues
markets. Examine the infrastructure and share of enrolments has become a necessity in the investment world. During
within the different segments and understand why students your investigations, assess whether the company you
may prefer a public institution over the equivalent private are analysing understands and is responding to ESG-
operation. What do employers think? For example, do they related risks. For example, is the firm aware of how its fee
treat privately educated students more favourably? structure is viewed and that a negative opinion will result
in reputational damage? Similarly, does it support people
from disadvantaged communities or contribute to charitable
COMPARE AND CONTRAST causes by leveraging the expertise and research efforts of its
teachers and students?
Having obtained a general understanding of both company-
specific and environmental factors, carry out some comparison On that note, the school bell has just sounded. Today’s lesson
work on costs. We encourage you to set the per-capita income gives you a sense of how education companies operate and
levels in the company’s key markets against average annual whether the business model of each is sustainable—we urge
tuition fees to see how they measure up. Furthermore, learn you to do your homework, as there are many more granular
about the impact that scholarships and financing have on questions that you should ask.
About the Authors


EDUCATION
02
Revenue Scope for Expansion into new New product
streams capacity additions courses or markets offerings
REVENUE
MODEL 03
01
WHAT IS THE
Scalability Revenue Operating profit
per student per student
SERVICE PROFILE
PORTFOLIO OF
COURSES OFFERED?
Number of Operating Overseas
centers/ costs student
facilities participation
Segments Course Field of

served level study
EDUCATION Use of virtual Offerings in
delivery channels emerging domains
06
of analyzing the
Education industry
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
04 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
Contribution to Contribution Scholarships

local community to charity for hardship Barriers Government Standing of public
to entry policy/funding institutions
05 PERFORMANCE AND PROFITABILITY Teacher-student ratio Brand and reputation
Enrollment trends and Marketing New student Conversion success

number of new students strategy and cost acquisition cost rate from enquiry
to enrollment Market for part time Franchise
and virtual study model

EDUCATION
1. How do employment conditions impact demand for b. What is the enrolment capacity across the outlets?
education in the company’s key markets? c. On average, how many students are enrolled across
a. How much importance do employers place on these outlets?
educational qualifications as a criterion for employment? d. What is the revenue and operating profit per student
b. How useful do students and employees perceive across the different outlets?
educational qualifications to be in the employment market? e. Are all courses offered across all outlets? If not, how
c. How are these trends evolving and how are they does the company plan expand its offerings across
expected to change in future? different outlets?
d. How much impact do unemployment rates have on
student enrollments into higher education? 5. Are the company’s courses available through virtual-
delivery channels?
2. Portfolio of courses offered. a. Do the company’s key markets have easy access to
cheap, high-speed internet connectivity? How is the
a. What are different segments (test preparation, grammar
availability of these services evolving?
schools, private tuitions, regular schools, vocational
training, colleges, universities) does the company offer? b. What proportion of courses are offered through virtual
What is the breakdown of all institutions in each segment? delivery channels?
b. At what different levels (non-formal, school, college, c. Does the company expect to see increasing demand for
university, undergraduate, post-graduate, doctorate) are specific courses online?
study courses offered? d. What is the mix of student enrolments and revenue
c. In which fields of study (Arts, Business, Hospitality, between in-person and virtual delivery channels? How is
Humanities, Life Sciences, Science, Technology, Engineering the company placed relative to competitors?
& Management) does the company offer courses? e. How do course completion rates differ between the
two channels?
3. What is the company’s revenue model and how f. Are margins more attractive in one channel rather than
scalable is it? the other?
g. How is the mix between in-person and virtual delivery
a. What is the company’s revenue mix from components,
channels expected to evolve in the future?
such as tuition fees, books, study materials and
testing fees?
b. How does the company envisage each of these segments 6. What is the demand impact of changes in economic
growing in the coming years? Are any changes to the conditions?
revenue mix anticipated in the next 3-5 years? d. Is education demand counter-cyclical or non-cyclical in
c. How does the company intend to expand its operations? key markets?
d. Does the company plan to offer courses in any new e. How does this vary for different segments, levels and
segments, levels or fields of study? fields of study?
e. Are there any plans to expand capacity in courses f. What fields of study are particularly popular currently?
currently offered? g. How does the company’s current course portfolio
f. Are there any plans to offer courses in new cities, or to compare with this cyclicality and demand profile?
add centers in cities where the company already has
a presence?
7. How do education fees and affordability compare with
g. Does the company plan to expand into new countries? income levels in key markets?
h. What efficiencies of scale or scope are envisaged from
a. What are per-capita income levels in the company’s
introducing new courses or new locations? Are these
key markets?
efficiencies likely to be easy to come by, or where are
challenges anticipated? b. What is the average annual tuition fee charged? How
does this compare with income levels?
c. How much impact does the availability of scholarships
4. The company’s delivery network.
and financing have on enrolment rates?
a. How many outlets or centers does the company d. What proportion of students fund their study out of their
operated? In how many cities are these facilities based? own pocket versus through financing?
EDUCATION
8. What proportion of prospective students are 12. What are the entry barriers for new players?
from overseas?
a. Is there space for new players to enter in key markets?
a. How significant is the participation of international b. Are there specific segments and fields of study where
students in campuses in key markets? demand requirements outnumber current supply? If so,
b. What percentage of the company’s current student what are the company’s current and proposed offerings
population is from overseas? in these segments and fields?
c. From which countries do these students typically oiginate? c. Is there adequate availability of qualified teaching staff
d. How friendly are immigration and visa regimes in across different segments, levels and fields of study?
countries where campuses are located? d. Is it easier for new entrants to break into particular
e. How is the availability of higher education services segments, levels and fields of study, or are barriers to
expected to evolve in the home countries of entry consistent across all of these?
international students? Is the number/quality of facilities e. Are courses currently offered in any areas with relatively
in those countries expected to increase or decline? How low barriers to entry? If so, what are the unique
are these trends expected to affect future enrolment of characteristics of the company’s courses in these areas?
international students?
13. What are the education policies in the company’s
9. What demographic and macroeconomic factors key markets?
impact demand?
a. What are the government policies with respect to the
a. What proportion of the population is in the age group role of the private sector in education?
15-25 in key markets? b. What is the regulatory structure pertaining to different
b. How is this forecasted to change in future? What could segments and levels of education?
be the impact of immigration on this forecast? c. What regulatory hurdles are faced by private
c. What are the urbanization trends in key markets? education providers?
d. What percentage of GDP is spent on education in d. How easy is it to obtain required approvals?
key markets?
e. What is the per capita spending on education in 14. What is the extent of financial assistance available?
key markets?
a. Does the company or its students receive subsidies,
f. What is the gross enrolment ratio at different stages of
scholarships, concessions or other forms of financial/
education? How is this expected to evolve?
non-financial assistance from the government or
other sources?
10. What is the sectoral mix of the economy (agriculture, b. How accessible are education loans for
manufacturing, services) in the company’s key markets? prospective students?
a. Which industries employ the most manpower? c. Does the company have partnerships in place to
b. Which fields of study are in high demand in these facilitate loans to prospective students?
employment markets?
c. How rapidly is the services sector growing and expected 15. Considering expansion plans, what challenges are
to increase in the future? expected to be faced relating to government policies
d. What are the prospects of a transition to a knowledge- and regulations?
based economy in key markets? a. What kind of approvals must be obtained to implement
expansion plans?
11. What are the evolving new fields of study? b. What legal and regulatory challenges is the company
likely to face in scaling up its revenue model?
a. How does the company identify new fields of study that
might interest students? c. Are there any caps on tuition fee or other components?
b. How does the company develop curriculum, acquire d. In overseas markets that the company is planning to
faculties and offer courses in new fields of study? enter, are there any restrictions on investment and
participation by foreign entities in the education sector?
c. How often is the current course portfolio reviewed in
light of market trends? e. Are there restrictions/regulations on any other aspects
of the company’s operations?
EDUCATION
16. What is the educational infrastructure in the public 20. How easy is it to attract qualified and quality teaching
sector of the company’s key markets. staff in key markets?
a. How strong are public institutions? What is their share of a. What is the average cost of the company’s faculties?
enrolments within different segments, levels and fields b. How do faculty salaries compare with what non-
of study? academic employers offer to similarly qualified staff?
b. What is the preference of the student community c. How difficult is it to retain qualified staff? How does the
between public and private institutions? firm manage attrition among faculty members?
c. What is the perception of the market, employers, d. What is the teacher to student ratio and how does it
students and faculty about private institutions? compare with private sector peers and public institutions?
e. How does the company ensure faculty members are
17. What is the demand-supply balance in key markets and kept up to date with developments in their subject areas,
fields of study? market developments and teaching methodologies?
a. Is there a mismatch in demand and supply across f. Do the company’s faculties actively perform and
different segments, levels and fields of study? participate in research and publishing?
b. How do the company’s offerings compare with
courses that are in demand and which are offered by 21. How is the market for part-time and virtual modes of
competitors? study evolving?
c. How quickly can the company tailor its offerings a. How big is the market for these channels relative to full-
according to changes in demand? time courses and how fast is it growing?
d. How are student preferences evolving with respect to b. What is the acceptance level of these modes among
study duration? Do students typically prefer longer or employers and students?
shorter courses?
c. Which fields of study have particularly high
acceptance levels?
18. Where does the company stand regarding brand value d. What is the company’s strategy to leverage on these
and reputation in key markets? channels for expansion and growth?
e. How many of the company’s campuses and colleges
participate in national and/or international rankings of 22. Does the company employ a franchise model?
higher education institutions?
a. What proportion of operations is run directly by the firm
f. How do participating campuses and colleges fare in
versus through franchisees?
such rankings?
b. If a franchisee model is employed, how is it structured?
g. Does the company intend to increase participation and
improve its standing in these ranking programs? c. Which elements are managed by the firm and which
aspects by franchisee?
h. What are the various accreditations required and
obtained by the company’s various campuses and their d. What proportion of investments are made by franchisees?
associated courses of study? e. What is the basis and proportion of revenue, cost and
profit sharing?
19. Collaborations and partnerships with industry and
other institutions. 23. What are the current enrolment trends and
new-student starts?
a. Does the company collaborate with the respective
industries for various courses of study? a. What is the average duration of study for the courses
b. How effectively is the company able to facilitate that students enroll in?
internships for students? b. How is this evolving? Is student preference turning
e. Does the company have any twinning programs with towards shorter or longer duration courses?
reputable domestic and overseas institutions? c. What is the impact of course duration on the company’s
cost structure and margins?
d. How does the profitability of shorter duration courses
compare with that of longer duration courses?
EDUCATION
Governance
24. Please explain the company’s marketing and 27. What are the company’s ESG principles, practices and
outreach strategy. track record?
a. What is the company’s marketing spend and how is a. Does the company support students from
it apportioned? disadvantaged communities?
b. How does the company connect with potential students? b. Does the firm have programs to increase awareness of
c. Which channels are used and which are the most ESG and sustainability issues among students?
effective and efficient? c. What is the company’s understanding of the public
d. What is the average cost of new student acquisitions? perception about transparency and fairness in
How does this differ by segment, level and field of study? determining fees charged?
d. What steps are taken to ensure the environment for
students and faculty in the company’s campuses
25. What are the company’s operating expenses, costs
remains safe?
and margins? How do these compare with peers?
e. Does the company contribute to social, community and
a. What is the firm’s cost structure? charitable causes by leveraging the expertise, skills and
b. What is the ratio of teaching to non-teaching staff? How research efforts of faculties and students?
does the ratio compare to peers?
c. What are the company’s overheads per student? How do
these compare to peers?
d. How efficiently is the company able to leverage its
classroom space? Is a day / evening / weekend course
model employed to optimize the infrastructure?
e. What is the company’s operating margin? How does this
compare with local and global peers?
26. How are relationships with government and regulatory

authorities managed?
a. How many different government departments and
agencies are dealt with in the company’s operations?
b. How does the company ensure dealings with these
agencies is fair and in accordance with applicable
statutory, regulatory and governance requirements?
c. Do any promoters, major investors, affiliates, or
executives have any family or business relationships
with key politicians or government officials?
d. Has the company ever been investigated or alleged to
have acted in an illegal or inappropriate manner while
dealing with government and regulatory authorities?
e. Has the company faced accusations of bribery or paying
‘kickbacks’ to any politicians or government officials?
f. Does the firm donate to political parties? If so, please
provide details.

CASINO
WHEEL OF FORTUNE? THE ODDS ARE FIRMLY IN YOUR FAVOUR
WITH A PROPER ANALYSIS OF GAMING COMPANIES
There is an old Chinese saying: “For every ten gamblers, • Turning to accommodation, does the company offer
nine will be losers.” Typically, you might picture a down-at- hotels at its facilities, and if so, can it meet current
luck gamer staring in shock at the card table. However, the and future levels of demand? What is the quality of the
casino itself may also not be on a winning streak. hotel stock—are the rooms pristine and appealing or
well-used and tired?
Despite the deep-pile-carpet glamour and general
hype about how profitable the casino business model • Co-located tourist facilities and attractions are
potentially can be, gaming is actually a highly regulated others factors worth exploring, especially for one-off
and heavily taxed industry. After all, society expects to be developments. Other than the casino, what would
compensated for absorbing the social costs that gambling persuade a gamer to visit the location? Does it have
engenders. As such, few public voices lobby against family-friendly attractions that will keep a spouse and
gaming levies. children occupied?
Invariably, casinos and gaming facilities are accompanied Follow your initial review of the above factors with an
by world-class accommodations and other high-end analysis of the company’s operational details relative
leisure amenities. This infrastructure is hugely capital to its competitors. From a purely economic perspective,
intensive; it can take years of profitability before a consider the long-term factors that will drive growth and
facility can finally break even. On top of this, revenue how the company expects those factors to evolve. How
cannibalisation from competitors operating in the same much does a gamer spend during each visit? Are there any
location is an ever-present risk, as is the threat of factors that may restrict spending, such as the number
economic downturns. As you can see, running a casino of available tables for impatient gamblers? Is the general
has the potential to become a losing game. environment inviting and well ventilated, or does it permit
smoking in public places? Crucially, survey the minimum
Before you place your bets, look carefully at all the cards and maximum bet limits on each game and find out if
on the table. This framework is not a definitive guide gamers have easy access to cash from onsite ATMs.
to the sector, but is intended as a starting point that
provide a systematic way of analysing a listed casino As an aside, check the opening times of the facility, as
business model. casinos are a favourite haunt for people who finish work
in the early hours of the morning. Moreover, a surprising
number of people frequent casinos not to gamble but to
KNOW THE GAMING ENVIRONMENT eat, so review the food and beverage options available
to guests.
As with any sector review, asses all the relevant economic,
geographic, and political factors.
CHINESE CONSUMER AUDIENCE
• Look at where the company’s properties are situated:
Are they located in gaming hubs that offer choice and In recent years, the rise of the Chinese consumer has had
require little effort to reach, such as Macau, or are they a significant influence on a wide range of industries, such
one-off developments that gamers must be enticed to as property, retail, and tourism, in addition to casinos. With
visit? Do they operate in politically stable regions? this in mind, ascertain the amount of business derived
from Chinese customers. Simultaneously, how does the
• Examine tourism volumes, as these will tell you if a per-capita spend by customers from China compare with
country or territory is falling in or out of favour. At the that of customers from other countries? From a broader
same time, compare visitor numbers alongside local perspective, try to identify any factors that could affect
patronage—are there enough home-grown gamers to Chinese customer volumes. Examples here could be both
sustain the company’s operations? economic and geopolitical in nature.
CASINO
GAMBLING RULES GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
Governments love gambling revenues but are far more Whether you work in finance or are an investor, awareness
pious when it comes to the actual source of this cash. of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues
Consequently, any study of the industry must take into has become a necessity in the investment world. For the
account the country’s regulatory factors and how they gaming industry in particular, ESG factors connect closely
might affect the business being analysed. Begin with with the human spirit. Gambling is enjoyed by millions.
the current license structure and what it means in For some, it is often nothing more than one of life’s many
terms of cost. Also, note that a relaxed license regime amusements, but for others, it can morph into something
could result in greater competition in the firm’s market. less frivolous. Bear in mind the measures a company
Find out if any regulations restrict customer entry to takes to ensure responsible gaming. Simultaneously, look
the gaming floor and whether governments place visa at the company’s record on the prevention of corruption
restrictions on their residents visiting countries where and money laundering. How does it treat its staff, many of
casino properties are located. whom are expected to work anti-social hours in a high-
pressure environment?
UNDERSTAND THE GAME

A WINNING STREAK
Earlier, we touched on competition in the company’s
market. It is worth delving deeper here to see how well a Finally, study the numerical metrics of the company, as
gaming business can manoeuvre in challenging operating you can rely on these to establish a feel for how well a
waters. Key aspects you should note are the levels of company is doing. Try to size up how the business has
competition concentration in any one market and whether performed operationally and look at its metrics in relation
the company is prepared to explore new territories where to its competitors. These metrics should include, but not
it can further develop its product. What factors facilitate or be limited to, profit margins, debt-to-equity ratio, and
impede the entry of new players into this virgin territory? asset turnover ratio. Further down the line, how does
Moreover, how does the company expect its business the company expect industry trends to evolve? From a
model to evolve? Lastly, do not overlook the rise of online financial perspective, appraise the balance sheet and
gaming—establish if the company has, or plans to develop, again look at those of the company’s peers.
a digital presence.
Do note that this article only provides a framework to help
you analyse the casino business model, which, in actual
operation, is usually bundled with the hospitality and
business convention sectors. That said, good luck as you
spin your wheel of research because, if you’ll pardon a
corny phrase, casino analysis is slots of fun!
About the Authors


CASINO
02
DEMAND
Number of Regulation on number Average visitation
gaming tables of tables operated per property 03
REGULATIONS
01 GEOGRAPHIC
FACTORS
Average spending
per visitor per
property
Betting
limits of
tables Visa requirements
for tourists
Gaming
tax
Exclusivity
clauses
Location of Tourist volume Accessibility Cost of Status of Marketing restrictions in

properties in those and license license target customer countries
locations accommodation
proximity
07 ESG
FACTORS
CASINO
04 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
of analyzing the
Gaming industry
Disposable Threat from
income levels online gaming
Responsible Labor and Measure against
gaming industrial corruption and
measures relations money laundering
Partnerships and Barriers to High Net-worth

joint-ventures entry Individuals (HNI)
density
05
Privacy of Adherence to reporting
customer data requirements
06 OPERATIONAL
PERFORMANCE DRIVERS Revenue
per table
Loyalty
programs
Revenue mix Margin of Revenue from Ownership of Leverage on How frequently Gaming Gaming
VIP vs Mass VIP vs Mass non-gaming land the company technology are gaming differentiation promoters in
Market Market offerings operates on tables refreshed? from peers VIP segment

CASINO
Casinos
1. What is the geographic spread of the 5. What is the impact of regulation on the business?
a. Do any regulations exist that restrict customer entry to
a. In which countries and cities are properties the gaming floor?
currently located? b. Are there restrictions on the amount of money that can
b. How well-visited are these locations? How appealing and be spent by gamers?
popular are these locations as tourist destinations? c. Do governments in customer-originating markets
c. How well connected are these locations to key customer place restrictions on marketing the company’s
originating markets? properties and services?
d. Do governments place any restrictions on foreign
2. How large are tourist volumes in locations where exchange that can be spent by their residents on
company’s properties are located? gaming while visiting countries where the company
operates properties?
a. What is the level of inbound tourist traffic to locations
e. Do governments place visa restrictions on their residents
where properties are located? How is this evolving?
visiting countries where properties are located?
b. What is the breakup of tourist traffic between domestic
and foreign visitors?
6. What are the long-term factors that will drive future
c. What proportion of the company’s customer base is
growth? How does the company expect these to evolve?
estimated to be inbound tourist traffic versus the
local population? a. What are the disposable income levels in key markets?
d. How much hotel accommodation is available in locations b. How big is the population of high net-worth individuals
where the company operates properties? (HNIs) in key markets?
e. What are the peak and average occupancy rates of c. Which new markets are expected to drive business
hotels in those locations? growth in the future?
f. Are any potential additional visitors lost during d. How much threat is anticipated from online gaming
peak holiday seasons due to the unavailability providers? What is the company’s strategy to manage
of accommodation? the impact from online gaming platforms?
e. Might an integration of online and offline gaming be
3. Key factors impacting demand. possible in the long term?
a. How many gaming terminals and tables does the
company operate? 7. How does the company expect its business model
to evolve?
b. What regulations govern the number of terminals and
tables that can be operated? a. At what pace is the market expected to evolve from a
c. What are the annual visitation numbers and average pure casino model to an integrated resort model?
spending per visitor in the each of properties operated? b. What proportion of revenue does the company expect to
d. What factors affect time spent by visitors on the derive from non-gaming offerings five years from now?
gaming floor? c. What non-gaming offerings are expected to gain most
e. What are the minimum and maximum bet limits per traction and why?
game? Are there any regulations governing these limits? d. What is the company’s strategy to leverage these
f. Is smoking banned on the gaming floor? opportunities?
g. Do regulations permit having ATMs on the gaming floor?
8. What is the level of market concentration?
4. How much business is derived from Chinese customers? a. How concentrated is the market? How much market
share do the top-three and top-five players have in key
a. What proportion of the company’s customers are from
markets?
China? What percentage of revenue is derived from
these customers? b. What is the mix of customers between VIP and mass
market? How does this vary by customers’ country of
b. How does per-capita spend by customers from China
origin?
compared with that of customers from other countries?
c. What is the company’s market share and standing in
c. Does the company foresee any factors that could affect
markets where it operates properties?
the volume of Chinese customers visiting its properties?
d. How prevalent is the partnership and joint venture route
in key markets, given the limited number of licenses?
CASINO
9. What factors facilitate or impede the entry of d. What is the current mix of old and new terminals
new players? on the gaming floor? How frequently is the gaming
mix refreshed?
a. What is the typical investment required to develop
a property? e. How are gaming offerings differentiated from peers?
b. How many licenses are granted by regulators in
key markets? 12. How has the company performed from a financial
c. What is the typical duration of a license? perspective? How do its key metrics compare with
peers and how does the company expect trends
d. How straightforward is the renewal process? What
to evolve?
are the risks of a company being unable to renew its
required licenses? a. What is the revenue mix between VIP and mass market?
How do margins from these segments compare?
10. The current license structures. b. What is the normalized win rate for VIP gaming in
properties operated? How are these rates calculated?
a. How many different countries or regions does the
c. Does the company work with intermediaries such as
company operate in? How many properties are operated
gaming promoters in the VIP segment?
in each country or region?
d. What revenue growth, on a normalized basis, has the
b. What is the gaming tax rate in the jurisdictions in which
company achieved?
the company operates?
e. What is the current normalized EBITDA margin?
c. How many licensees are in operation in each of the
license areas where properties are operated? f. How much revenue is derived from non-gaming
offerings? How do margins on these offerings compare
d. When are the company’s current licenses due to expire?
to gaming margins?
When do peers’ licenses expire, if known?
g. How much of the land on which the properties are
e. Do any current licenses have an exclusivity clause? If so,
situated does the company own?
for how long are these valid?
f. When is the next round of license issuance or renewal
in the areas in which the company operates? How 13. ESG principles, practices and track record.
many licenses will be available for issue or renewal at a. What measures are taken to ensure customers practice
that time? responsible gaming?
g. What was the cost of licenses when they were last b. Does the company contribute to efforts to prevent,
obtained? How much are license costs expected to minimize and eradicate human trafficking?
increase at the next renewal?
c. What is the company’s track record concerning labor
and industrial relations?
11. How has the company performed operationally? How d. What are the company’s current obligations regarding
do its key metrics compare with peers and how does prevention of corruption and money laundering? What
the company expect trends to evolve? steps are undertaken to enforce these requirements?
a. How much revenue per terminal/table is generated every e. How does the company ensure the privacy of its
day in each property? What are growth rates are being customers and the safety of customer data collected?
observed? Has an increase in the number of terminals or f. How does the company ensure adherence to various
units resulted in increased revenue and profitability? reporting requirements? How many different jurisdictions
b. Does the company run loyalty programs? If so, what and agencies is the company required to report to?
operating costs are incurred and how much incremental
revenue do these programs bring?
c. To what extent does the company utilize technology to
drive business growth? Have all terminals been enabled
for cashless gaming?

INSURANCE
UNDERCOVER ANALYSIS: ASSESSING COMPANIES IN THE INSURANCE SECTOR
Insurance is a curious sector. In years gone by, it was With this product information in hand, establish which
regarded as something of a cash cow, with the likes of macroeconomic factors are affecting the demand for
Warren Buffett treating the float as a source of money to insurance. Examine changes in income levels, business
be invested elsewhere. Insurance companies were also activity, and GDP growth, bearing in mind that, when times
seen as sclerotic, with time-consuming processes that are tough, insurance can get pushed down the priority
often placed the customer last. It’s not because these list and customers may fail to renew their policies or avoid
firms didn’t care. Instead, the characterisation reflected an cover altogether until the climate improves.
ingrained culture that didn’t quite know how to change.
Affordability is a critical aspect to note. Compare the cost
With the arrival of technology, the forces of disruption of the company’s products with the average income levels
were quick to spot the inherent opportunities in the sector, of its target markets. People are more willing to expose
and the attention of digital suitors now envelops insurance themselves to risk if the cost of a policy is at odds with the
firms. These suitors include cloud computing, big data cover provided, so look as well at how prices are evolving. Is
analytics, artificial intelligence, the blockchain, drones, and pricing in sync with changes in personal income?
the internet of things.
How do levels of competition affect the prices the
The reshaping of the industry is taking place in company charges for its products? To answer this
several domains: question, learn about the company’s market share in terms
of the number of policies sold and premiums earned. Find
• Customer acquisition and marketing: the emergence out where it sits relative to its peers (e.g., Is it a top-three
of a more targeted approach when identifying or a top-five player?). Also, try to establish if any factors
customer groups will help or hinder the arrival of new entrants: Will the
market become saturated or will it remain static?
• Claims: a rise in automated handling with on-demand
case information
• Underwriting and product pricing: with a deeper well of COMPANY ACTIVITY
customer information to hand, costs are becoming fairer Turn your attention to the company’s specifics and study
and more accurate its track record in investing premiums. This analysis
How should we analyse insurance counters? is important, as it will determine the health of the
aforementioned float (i.e., the difference between claims
paid and premiums collected).
DEMAND DRIVERS From an expansion perspective, assess the company’s
Insurance is an umbrella term that covers various types businesses strategy and track record in launching new
of product offerings, so begin by finding out what the products and its ability to attract clients to those products.
company you are analysing sells. Is it household policies Consider whether the company treats new customers
or corporate cover? In which markets does it specialise fairly once it has attracted them. Helpful benchmarks are
(e.g., institutional or industrial)? Is its customer base in the company’s claims settlement ratio and grievance ratio.
developed territories or those still emerging?
INSURANCE
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE THE RACE TO INNOVATE
We closed the previous section by touching on the Earlier, we noted the innovative disruptors that are
treatment of customers, which is an integral part of an transforming the insurance sector. In concluding
insurance company’s approach to environmental, social, this sector analysis, we highlight a crucial factor that
and governance factors. Among other things, establish will dictate the future direction of the industry: the
the total amount of claims that are currently under receptiveness of a new breed of consumers to on-demand
dispute and if the firm is presently facing any litigation or products. Insurance companies that can reshape their
legal proceedings. Also, how does the company protect business models to accommodate the click-and-buy
the privacy of its clients and ensure the safety of the generation will be the leaders of tomorrow.
data it holds?
Moreover, as smart-home sensors become a standard
part of our residences, wearable health sensors become
MARKET STRUCTURE inseparable from our wrists, and cost-effective drones
assess building damage, insurance firms will find they
Assess the current structure of the insurance market have an efficient and accurate big-data platform to help
and the long-term factors that are expected to drive its them to filter out high-risk groups. Pricing will be fairer as
growth. What type of policies dominate the market and honest customers will be less exposed to the activities of
how are they being sold—directly via online platforms or fraudulent claimants.
offline through brokers or bancassurance channels? Are
there specific products market leaders and how will they This framework provides only a concise snapshot
evolve? For example, travel, home, and vehicle insurance of the factors we think you should examine in an
are well-established as online offerings; however, insurance company business model. To find out more,
specialist business insurance is likely to be purchased our complete framework, together with three clusters
offline through a broker. of questions about the life insurance, health insurance,
and property and casualty insurance segments, are
An understanding of market maturity is another useful available at www.arx.cfa.
tool, so screen the penetration levels of different products
in the company’s operating sphere in relation to overall
economic maturity. How are these levels expected to
evolve and which products will benefit (or lose out) from
these changes?
About the Authors


INSURANCE
02
STRUCTURAL
Macroeconomic Penetration levels Barriers to
factors and protection gap entry
03
01
PRODUCT
INFLUENCES
Brand Market
BUSINESS
OPERATIONS
AND MARKET reputation concentration
SEGMENTATION
Sales Client acquisition
channels performance
What type of What market

insurance product segment do they
do they sell specialize in
Track record in
INSURANCE launching new
products
Overall business
strategy
Customer base Affordability of analyzing the
Insurance industry
04
06 ESG GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
05
Proportion of AUM Number of
RISK
in line with ESG claims in MANAGEMENT Investment
management
Net premiums
written and earned
Policy
retention rate
principles dispute
Reserves to Solvency levels Claims ratio, Underwriting Process

Protection of Safety of anticipated loss expense ratio and margin and new efficiency
client privacy customer data combined ratio (CoR) business margin initiatives
Asset-Liability Risk mitigation

mismatch policies and measures

INSURANCE
Insurance
1. What are the products offered by the company? 6. What is the structure of the insurance market and the
sales channels? How are these evolving?
a. What are the products offered: life, health, property
and casualty? a. Are there state-run insurers in the company’s market? If
b. Which customer segments does the company cater to: yes, then how big and strong are they? How large is the
household, trade, corporate, institutional and industrial? private sector?
c. Which are the regions and countries the company b. What is the mix of policies sold, Annual Premium
operates in? Equivalent (APE) earned and SA through different sales
channels: direct – offline, direct – online, agency,
bancassurance, corporate agency/broker etc.? Are
2. What are the macroeconomic factors affecting demand there specific products which are easy to sell through
for insurance? specific channels?
a. How do changes in income levels, business activity and c. What is the mix of policies sold, APE earned and SA
GDP growth affect demand? between individual and group policies?
b. How much of the demand is driven by tax breaks, if any,
provided on insurance products? 7. What are the long-term factors that are expected to
c. Which other social and demographic factors drive growth? How are these expected to evolve?
affect demand?
a. What are the penetration levels of different insurance
products in the company’s markets, in relation to the
3. How affordable are different insurance products and stage of economic development they are in?
services in the company’s key markets? b. How are penetration levels expected to evolve? Which
a. How does the cost of different products compare with products are likely to benefit or lose out from the
average income levels of the target demographic/ changing penetration levels?
market segment? c. What is the sum assured (SA) and premium income as
b. How is affordability evolving? What will drive affordability % of GDP?
– changing income levels or the cost of insurance? d. What is the protection gap ratio (ratio of protection
lacking/protection needed) and size of the coverage
opportunity across different products and segments?
4. What is the level of market concentration?
e. Does the company has a strategy to leverage
a. How much share do the Top 3 / Top 5 players have in the emerging technologies such as Internet of Things and
key markets? smart sensors to harvest usage and behaviour data to
b. What is the company’s market share, in terms of number of reduce claims and offer better products and cheaper
policies sold, premium written, premium earned and SA? prices to customers?
c. How much market share does the company hold in
different products and segments across geographies? 8. How has the performance been on operational
measures? How do these compare with that of peers
5. What are the factors facilitating / impeding entry of and how are these expected to evolve?
new players? a. What are the growth trends in new policies sold, APE
a. What is the investment required? and SA?
b. How difficult is to get approvals and licence? b. What is the split of new policies sold, APE and SA
between existing products (products in existence for
c. How easy is it to get the right skill sets and expertise?
more than a year) and new products?
d. How expensive is to build agent network and
c. What is the growth rate of new policies sold, APE and SA
acquire customers?
for existing products?
d. What is the policy renewal/retention/persistency rate of
various existing products?
e. What are the technology-enabled initiatives the
company has implemented to improve process
efficiencies in operations and claims administration?
INSURANCE
9. What is the company’s strategy and track record in c. What is the company’s claims ratio, expense ratio and
launching new products? combined ratio (CoR)?
a. How frequently are new products launched? How does d. What are the company’s underwriting margin and new
the company decide what to launch when? business margin?
b. How do the number of policies sold, average APE
and average SA compare to similar products in the 13. How well has been the company’s track record in
company’s existing portfolio and in the market? managing investments?
c. How does the average APE and SA of new products a. What is the asset allocation strategy? What are the
compare with that of the existing products? details for each fund type and asset class and region?
d. How does the acquisition cost of new products compare b. What is the currency mix of the investments?
with that of similar existing products in the company’s
c. What are the company’s investment income and yields?
portfolio and in the industry?
d. What is the sensitivity of investment income and yields
e. Does the company use big data and prescriptive
to changes in interest rates and volatility in exchange
analytics to design new products and to price them?
rates? Does the company use hedging to manage
these aspects?
10. How has been the company’s performance on e. What are the trends in the company’s Assets Under
client acquisition? Management (AUM) and Fee income?
a. How many new clients are acquired through new f. What is the credit profile of investments in fixed
products sales vs sale of existing products? income securities?
b. What is the split of number of policies, APE and SA
between existing and new clients? 14. How strong is the company’s balance sheet? What do
c. How does the average APE and SA of newly acquired the capital adequacy ratios look?
clients compare with that of existing clients, for
a. What is the size of investment assets, reserves,
similar existing products in the company’s portfolio
provisioning and subordinated debt?
and in the market?
b. What is the debt-to-total capitalisation ratio?
d. How does the company’s client acquisition costs
compare with those of peers? c. What is ratio of reserves to anticipated loss?
d. What is the average tenor of assets and liabilities?
11. How has the track record been on customer e. What is the extent of the Asset-Liability Mismatch (ALM)?
service measures? f. How do solvency ratios compare with regulatory
requirements and with industry standards?
a. What has been the claims settlement ratio and
grievance ratio?
b. How does the company prevent mis-selling of its 15. What are the details of the company’s risk
products? What are the regulations in place to protect management strategy?
customers from mis-selling? How has been the a. How does the company maintain underwriting discipline?
company’s track record in this aspect?
b. How do the underwriting practices of the company
c. What is the extent of cross-selling? How is this compare with those of the peers?
measured and tracked?
c. How does the company measure performance on risk
d. To what extent the company is using digital channels to mitigation and underwriting discipline? How is the
provide customer service? track record rated by the company in relation to that
e. How useful are analytics in identifying customer needs of the peers?
and market products accordingly? d. How do large unforeseen claims affect the business?
What is the strategy to mitigate associated risk?
12. How has the company’s performance been on financial e. Does the company use technologies such as bit data
measures? How do these compare with that of peers analytics, machine learning to prevent, detect and
and how are these expected to evolve? mitigate fraud? Are there plans to deploy distributed
ledger solutions to protect data and authenticate
a. What is the growth rate of annual Net Premiums Earned
customers and contracts?
(NPE) and Net Premiums Written (NPW)?
b. How has the NPW/NPE ratio trended over time?
INSURANCE
Life Insurance Health Insurance
16. What are the details of the company’s product portfolio? 20. What is the structure of healthcare services in the
company’s key markets?
a. Does the company offer both protection and
investment products? a. Do the residents have access to universal healthcare? If
b. What are the different types of investment products not, are there proposals under consideration?
offered: whole life, universal life, variable life, and b. If there is no universal healthcare, what proportion of the
retirement products? total healthcare expenditure do the residents spend out
c. What is the mix of policies, APE and SA across different of their pocket?
products? How is this evolving? c. How common is employer-provided health cover? Is it
d. What is the mix of policies, APE and SA between mandatory for employers to provide this benefit?
linked vs non-linked and participating vs non- d. Is the healthcare sector public, private or mixed? If it is
participating products? mixed, what is the share of each?
e. What is the company’s target segment for selling
17. What is the structure of the life insurance market and health cover: individual, institutional, government or
how it is evolving? mixed? What is the mix in terms of number of policies,
APE and SA?
a. What is the mix of protection and investment products
in the industry and for the company?
21. What are the long-term factors that are expected to
b. What is the share of insurance products in
drive growth?
household savings?
a. How do trends in average life expectancy in the
company’s markets affect demand for health cover?
18. What are the long-term factors that are expected to
drive growth? How are these evolving? b. How are healthcare costs evolving in relation to
income levels?
a. What is the birth rate and population growth rate in the
c. Does the company rewards, or has plans to reward,
company’s markets?
healthy behaviour (eg. not using tobacco products)
b. What is the size of working age population? How is the of customers by offering lower prices? How does the
dependency ratio expected to evolve? company intend to implement this?
c. How do trends in average life expectancy in the
company’s markets affect demand for life insurance?
d. How is life insurance perceived by the populace in the
company’s markets: as a risk cover, an investment
vehicle or a tax-saving instrument? How is this evolving?
e. What is the level of household savings? How much of
this is invested in financial assets?
19. What are the risks to the company’s assumptions on

Mortality/Longevity? What is the strategy to manage
any adverse impact?
INSURANCE
Property & Casualty Insurance Environmental, Society and
Governance
22. What are the long-term factors expected to drive
growth? How are these expected to evolve? 25. What are the details of the company’s ESG principles,
a. What are the trends in macroeconomic growth and
property ownership in these markets? a. What proportion of the company’s own AUMs and
b. What are the trends in private automobile ownership and those held for clients is managed in accordance with
accidents involving them? ESG principles?
c. Does the company rewards, or has plans to reward, b. What is the proportion of financial instruments
disciplined behaviour (eg. responsible driving) of and investment property is held in accordance with
customers by offering lower prices? How does the ESG principles?
company intend to implement this? c. What is the value and proportion of customers
d. Does the company’s product mix include cyber insurance? protected by, and total revenue generated from,
microinsurance products?
d. Is the company currently facing any litigation or legal
23. What are the likely implications of the shift from proceedings? What are the details?
ownership to access-based consumption models?
e. What is the total amount of claims that are currently
a. How does the company view the advent of ride-hailing under dispute?
services, car subscription services and autonomous f. What are the company’s investments and programmes
driving? How are these likely to affect the motor in research and technology to develop or acquire new
insurance market? ways of identifying, assessing and managing risk and
improving investment performance?
24. What is the company strategy to deal with increasing g. How does the company protect the privacy of clients
uncertainty of natural phenomena arising out of and ensure the safety of client and business data?
climate change? Does the company believe the
frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events is
on an upward clip?

TELECOMMUNICATIONS
OF THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR
Investors exploring the telecommunications sector must DEMAND DRIVERS

be aware of the key economic, operational and regulatory
factors influencing these firms. These factors vary from The degree of price elasticity of demand is a notable issue
country to country but also from company to company, in the telecommunications services space. For mobile
depending on the kind of service the firm provides–fixed operators, this flexibility tends to be non-discretionary
line, mobile or a combination of the two. Common to all but at the same time still relatively elastic. In short, price
are the opportunities afforded by the growth in data sensitivity is an important metric to consider.
and the proliferation of online services. For operators
in developing markets, lower penetration rates offer Of increasing importance is the extent of contributions from
longterm opportunities; for operators in the developed new-age services enabled by digitalisation. These include
world, staying relevant by keeping pace with technological unified messaging, collaboration and content generation. A
advancements is vital. In general, the telecommunications company’s positioning in these areas can have a profound
sector is marked by intense competition, hefty capital impact on its revenue prospects.
expenditure requirements (at least historically) and The appeal, range and quality of a service offering are
rigorous regulatory intrusion. critical. How well a fixed-line operator is positioned can
be gauged by examining the profile of end users, and the
revenue split between voice and data.
In the mobile segment, the operating outlook is influenced
by the mix of revenue by user type (for example, retail
versus corporate), data usage and billing arrangements
(prepaid or subscription). More recently, mobile has been
taking a growing share of total data consumption. However,
the whole pie is growing: usage of data has increased
considerably across the board and companies are thinking
of ways to harvest and monetise the information they have
gleaned from customer behaviour.
MARKET POSITION
The operating landscape for telecommunications companies
is heavily influenced by both competition and the regulatory
environment. Investors should examine barriers to entry
in addition to the ease with which existing rival firms can
compete as the number of operators in the market has a
bearing on performance. Investors should also consider
whether there are only a few competing businesses, or
whether the market could be ripe for consolidation.
Of course, the sector’s mechanics are not purely dependent
on supply-and-demand parameters. The role of the
regulator is essential from both competition and licensing
perspectives. Pricing can be influenced by the agenda
of a regulatory body, and an operator may be obliged to
fulfil specific technological or coverage requirements. The
structure of the telecommunications market is changing, and
the consequences of increased competition from over-the-
top services such as Skype or WhatsApp require monitoring.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
STRUCTURAL INFLUENCERS PERFORMANCE METRICS

Levels of urbanisation, market penetration rates and Several measures can be employed to gauge how well
customer purchasing power are critical long-term drivers a telecommunications firm is doing. Trends in average
of the telecommunications industry and are significant revenue per user (ARPU) and ARPU’s sensitivity to price
determinants of subscriber growth. This metric can be changes, along with net subscriber additions, are key
evaluated by examining the per-capita availability and indicators that can help track a telecommunications
usage of telecommunications services. The efficient company’s financial health. Subscriber acquisition costs
utilisation of technology and analytics also plays a huge role and churn rates can reflect the impact of competition within
in driving up both demand and market share. the market.
In this competitive environment, a unique feature of the The strength of the company’s balance sheet also merits
sector has been the expansion of nonvoice services. Data, inspection. Given the potential for high levels of capital
convergence and the bundling of content, in addition to the expenditure in this sector, investors should closely examine
growth in the enterprise market, are significant revenue factors such as the amount of debt and free cash flow.
drivers for fixed-line operators. Some of these areas, such
as data, are also relevant for wireless operators. However, An area of focus regarding fixed-line companies relates
the more specific issues for the mobile sector are the to their cost structure relative to that of wireless
availability and affordability of smart devices, as well as telecommunications. For mobile operators, the amount
the ability to develop a roadmap for network/technological of available spectrum and the nature of the associated
upgrades to avoid obsolescence. licensing regime are essential considerations.
Related to the factors above, is the advent of network

hardware virtualisation, which has cross-sector
implications. This new model for service provider
infrastructure requires less capital-intensive equipment
and is more software based, with a positive effect on
capital expenditure requirements. This could prove to be a
differentiating factor in the future.
About the Authors

Alan Lok, CFA, is Director of Society Advocacy Engagement, Asia Pacific at CFA Institute. He researches and writes on
investor protection issues and capital market structure and coauthored a CFA Institute position paper on capital market
integrity, “Portfolio Pumping in Singapore: Myth or Reality”. Mr. Lok has more than 10 years of equity research experience,
spanning various industries and sectors.
than 12 years of experience in equity research and works closely with a wide clientele of buy-side and sell-side firms as
well as with academic think-tanks across various continents.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS
1. What is the nature and mix of services offered 3. What is the degree of price sensitivity for telecom
to subscribers? services in the company’s key markets?
a. What are the primary factors driving subscriber acquisition? a. How much does demand change in response to a
b. What has been the split of subscriber base and new unit change in price? How does this vary across the
additions between post-pay and pre-pay set-up and by different services?
type of customers (retail vs corporate)? b. Is the degree of change in demand in response to price
c. What are the types and mix of services (voice, changes stable across price points or does it differ at
messaging, data and content) that are currently on offer various price points?
to clients? c. Is the competition in key markets predominantly based
d. Is the company offering, or has plans to offer, new on price levels?
services such as unified messaging, collaboration and d. If not based on price levels, how does the product and
content, enabled by digitalisation of the network and service differentiation work?
the ecosystem? e. How differentiated are the company’s services in key
e. Does the company offer digital channels for customers markets relative to those of competitors?
to engage with and resolve their issues? Is it possible f. How does the company’s differentiation strategy vary
for a customer to conduct an interaction solely through with type of content provided (voice vs data) and type of
digital channels, without recourse to offline and end-user (retail vs corporate) being catered?
traditional channels?
f. What is the revenue model being employed? What is the 4. What are the various data points about the usage and
mix of the subscription-based model versus the pay- behaviour of customers the company harvests?
per-use model?
a. How does the company monetise this usage data? What
g. What is the offtake for these services? What is the
are the potential additional options being considered to
company’s expectation for growth?
better utilise this information?
h. What proportion of the subscriber base is from the
machine to machine (M2M) segment? What are the
5. How does network coverage and quality affect demand
growth trends?
for the company’s services?
i. Who does the company compete with in providing
these services? What is the company’s strategy to a. How does the company’s network coverage compare
manage competition? with that of competitors, in terms of population reach
and geographical spread?
j. How much does it cost to acquire customers? What are
the key expense heads under acquisition costs? b. How do consumers perceive the network quality and
coverage of the company in relation to other operators?
Is there any industry study or market survey to
2. What is the extent and type of data usage? What are
substantiate these perceptions?
its key drivers and limitations?
c. To what extent does improvement in network quality
a. What are the drivers of data usage in the key markets? and coverage result in increased adoption of a
b. What is the economic cost [including the cost of last- company’s services?
mile connectivity, spectrum, trunk and the notional d. How does this sensitivity of usage to network quality
profits lost due to over-the-top (OTT) services such as compare with sensitivity to prices?
Skype and WhatsApp] of providing data?
c. What is the data capacity on the company’s network? 6. How easy is it for new players to enter and compete?
d. Have there been any bottlenecks or constraints in What are the entry barriers?
providing data services?
a. What are the regulatory barriers faced by new entrants?
e. What is the prevalence of bundling and unlimited usage
b. What are the investments required for a new entrant to
plans in the market? How does the company’s offerings
set up network and start offering services?
compare with those of competitors?
c. Is there a likelihood of a new entrant potentially
f. How much demand is attributable to messaging and
disrupting the company’s market position? What could
data use from M2M automated alerts sent by service
such a player do differently?
providers like banks?
d. Are mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) licences
g. What proportion of the demand for data can be attributed
permitted in the company’s key markets? If yes, then
to Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled applications?
how successful has the model been?
e. Has the entry of new players or MVNOs affected business?
How does the company plan to manage these challenges?
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
7. To what extent does regulation affect demand for 12. What is the extent of threat from OTT services such as
telecom services? Skype and WhatsApp?
a. Does regulation tend to be ex-ante or post-facto in nature? a. What is the estimated loss due to OTT services
b. Are operators free to decide on pricing or is pricing substituting traditional telecom services such as voice
driven by the regulator? and messaging?
c. Is the regulatory regime technology-neutral? b. Typically, how much of the total data consumption in the
key markets is attributable to the use of OTT services?
d. Does regulation cover quality of service (QoS) norms?
c. What is the company’s strategy to manage disruption
e. Are there regulatory requirements on providing service in
from OTT services?
underserved areas (for instance, are there any Universal
Service Obligations)?
13. What is the company’s strategy to leverage
opportunities arising from digitalisation?
8. How does regulatory changes affect the company’s
business units? a. To what extent is the company using data analytics to
improve efficiencies and effectiveness of marketing,
a. What are the specific instances of business impact due
optimise pricing, make tailored offerings, reduce
to regulatory issues?
customer churn and improve collections?
b. How did the company manage the impact, if any, of
b. How do digital solutions help in monitoring utilisation
regulatory changes in the past?
levels of the company’s network and optimising
c. How prepared is the company to manage regulatory deployment of capacity? How much efficiencies and
interventions in the future? cost reductions have been achieved as a result?
c. Does the company foresee increasing virtualisation of
9. What are the Interconnect Usage Charges (IUCs) the network hardware? What are the likely implications
across the key markets? on capital requirements, demand, cost and competition?
a. What is the regulatory stance on IUCs? d. How does the company plan to integrate, or make
b. Is there an asymmetric IUC regime in place? If yes, then interoperable, its legacy IT systems to enable seamless
what is the impact on the company finances? and fully digital operations? What are the challenges in
achieving this?
c. How are IUCs expected to evolve?
e. How is the company’s leadership managing
organisational and workforce challenges while executing
10. What is the penetration rate of telecom services
its digital strategy?
across the key markets? How are these evolving?
f. Does the company have plans to participate in
a. What is the per capita availability and usage of telecom adjacencies such as information technology services,
services (in terms of number of connections, voice and content and financial services? What is the preferred
data capacity)? operating model (in-house vs independent business unit
b. How much potential space does this leave for new vs partnerships) to offer these services?
subscriber growth? g. As a strategy, does the company intend to create
c. What is the population expenditure on telecom services and maintain its own platforms for providing and
as a share of GDP? distributing various services or does it seek to achieve
interoperability with existing platforms?
11. What are the urbanisation levels and purchasing power h. How comfortable is the company in working with open
of the population across the key markets? platforms, standards and technologies?
a. What proportion of the population in key markets is i. What is the company’s stance on net neutrality?
urban? How is this forecasted to change in the future?
b. How does the Average Revenues Per User (ARPU) in 14. What are the subscriber net additions and churn rates
the key markets compare to the per capita disposable in the key markets?
income? How is this expected to evolve in the future? a. What has been the average subscriber churn rate over
c. What are the other long-term demographic, social or the past three years? How has it evolved?
macroeconomic factors affecting demand for telecom b. What have been the key factors leading to loss
services in the key markets? of subscribers?
c. What has been the company’s track record on
customer satisfaction? How are the satisfaction levels
tracked and measured?
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Fixed-line Telecoms
15. What are the ARPUs and realisations in key markets? How 18. How many pure-play fixed-line providers operate in the
are these evolving? What is their sensitivity to pricing? key markets?
a. What are the pre-pay and post-pay ARPUs for voice a. Is there a unified telecom services licensing regime
and data? which allows an operator to obtain a single licence to
b. How have the ARPUs evolved and what are the offer voice, data and content services?
company’s expectations? b. What is the level of competition from Wireless
c. How has the rise in data usage and introduction of Telecom providers?
unlimited calling plans affected the ARPUs?
d. Can the impact on ARPUs from falling price level of 19. What is the share of fixed-line broadband in the total
services be quantified? Do usage volumes rise to a level data consumption in the key markets?
sufficient enough to maintain ARPUs? a. How has been the growth of fixed-line broadband
e. What are the ARPUs and volume of usage (text services in the key markets? Is the current trend
messages and data) in the M2M segment? How are sustainable in the medium and long term?
these evolving? b. What has been the company’s market share in the
f. What is the average realisation (revenue less cost) in overall fixed-line broadband services?
each segment? How is it affected by changes in usage c. How are the fixed-line broadband services evolving as a
volumes and pricing? business segment and, more specifically, as a revenue
stream to the company?
16. How has the company performed on QoS norms?
a. How does the company’s performance in providing 20. How does the growth in fixed-line broadband compare
different services compare with the benchmarks and with that of mobile data in the key markets?
with other operators?
b. Has the company ever been subject to warnings or fines 21. What is the company’s strategy to bundle content
for failure to adhere to QoS norms? services? What are the challenges foreseen in scaling
up these services?
17. What are the company’s capex requirements? How is the a. Does the company offer bundled content services, along
company placed in terms of capital efficiency, free cash with voice and data?
flow, leverage and margins? How did these look in the b. If yes, what proportion of the current revenue is
past and how are they expected to evolve in the future? attributable to bundled services? How does the
a. How has the company fared in terms of return on assets company see it evolving in the coming years?
(RoA) historically? How is it expected to evolve in the c. What are the specific challenges for the company, and
future? What are the likely risks to these expectations? the industry, when scaling up these services?
b. How much of the capex requirements is met by
internal accruals (cash from operations) versus from 22. What is the mix of voice and data usage by the
external financing? customer base?
c. What is the ratio of money spent on replacement capex a. How much of the company’s revenue is derived from
versus growth capex? each type of service?
d. Does the company’s operating margin increase with b. How does the mix of voice and data usage vary between
larger growth capex spend? How does this work from retail and corporate users?
a business model perspective? How sustainable is this
increase in operating margin?
23. How does the cost structure compare with that of
e. If excess growth capex still results in stagnant operating Wireless Telecoms? How is it expected to evolve?
margin, how long will this adverse situation persist?
What implications does this hold for consolidation? a. What are the various components of the cost?
f. What is the company’s position in terms of net debt over b. How does the cost structure compare with that of other
EBITDA? How is the ratio likely to shape up in future? Fixed-line and Wireless Telecom providers?
What are the company’s plans to manage leverage and
maintain comfortable repayment capacity?
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Wireless Telecoms
24. How is spectrum allocated and priced in the company’s 27. What is the profile of mobile data consumption?
key markets?
a. What is the share of mobile data in total data
a. Is spectrum bundled with the licence or must they be consumption in the key markets?
acquired separately? b. What is the per capita usage of mobile data?
b. What is the pricing model used in key markets to allocate c. At what rate is the per capita consumption growing?
and licence spectrum? Is the spectrum auctioned,
d. How do per capita usage and growth of the company’s
assigned on revenue-sharing basis or on fixed-cost basis?
customers compare with the industry trends?
c. What is the acquisition cost of spectrum per megahertz?
e. How does the mobile data growth compare with that of
d. Typically, for how long is the spectrum allocated or fixed-line broadband?
licensed to an individual operator? What is the extension
or renewal process?
28. What is the availability and affordability of smart
e. What are the differences, if any, in the spectrum allocation devices across the key markets?
process for existing operators and new operators?
a. What is the penetration rate of smartphones across the
key markets? What are the growth prospects?
25. What are the details of the company’s
spectrum holdings? b. How affordable are smartphones in the key markets and
across customer demographic groups (by age group and
f. How much spectrum does the company hold? socio-economic category of the population)?
g. In what frequency bands are these held? c. Is there any strategy to subsidise the cost of
h. What proportion of the spectrum in each band is held smartphones and thereby increase adoption by
in the preferred lower frequencies (which provide larger customers? If yes, then how does the cost-benefit
coverage and better indoor reception)? equation work?
i. How much spectrum is available per million users, at the
industry level and for the company? 29. What is the mix of revenues and profits by type of user
j. How much of the population does the company’s (retail vs corporate) and by type of subscription (post-
spectrum cover, in its licence areas? pay vs pre-pay)?
a. How much unused spectrum does the company a. What are the ARPUs for each user and subscription type?
hold? How does the company intend to monetise the b. What are the realisations in each segment?
unused spectrum?
c. How do the ARPUs and realisations compare with those
of peers?
26. What are the headwinds for market consolidation?
d. How are ARPUs and realisations expected to evolve?
a. How many licences does the company hold in the
countries/provinces it operates in? 30. What roadmap does the company envision to
b. What is the market share in each licence area, country implement technology and network upgrades?
and province?
a. How much of the company network is on
c. How intense is the competition in each licence area? 2G/3G/4G networks?
d. How many operators typically offer services in each b. What is the roadmap for deployment of 4G/5G networks?
licence area and how is the market share distributed
c. How mature is the device ecosystem in the key markets
across the players?
to support roll-out of next-generation networks?
e. What are the headwinds for market consolidation?
f. What are the regulatory hurdles in the road 31. What is the company’s strategy to grow the corporate/
to consolidation? enterprise segment of the user base?
g. Are there caps prescribed by the regulator in terms of
a. How do the ARPUs, realisations and churn rates of
subscriber share, revenue share and spectrum holdings
corporate/enterprise users compare with those of
within licence areas, and at regional and country level?
retail users?
b. Is there a specific strategy to grow business from
the segment?
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Governance (ESG) Aspects
32. What are the company’s ESG principles, practices and g. How does the company ensure customer devices are
track record? labelled appropriately to indicate the level of EMF radiation?
a. What is the company’s strategy, practices and track h. What are the steps taken to ensure the safety of the
record in reducing the energy intensity, water intensity, company’s employees and contractors from aspects
emissions intensity, waste generation and overall such as EMF radiation, noise from back-up power
environmental and ecological footprint of the services equipment, optical hazards (due to exposure to laser
and operations? light during fibre optic cable connection activities),
travel and work in remote sites and fire risks?
b. To what extent are alternative/renewable energy
sources used for operations, specifically to run i. What are the measures practised to ensure customer
facilities such as network equipment, mobile tower privacy and safety of customer data the company
stations and data centres? collects and stores? Have there been any breaches of
customer privacy or data?
c. How does the company ensure sustainable product life
cycle management of the network equipment it uses j. What is the company policy regarding marketing
and the devices used by the customers? Does the communications sent by third parties using the
company recover, or facilitate recovery of, any material company network? Do customers have the option to
from end-of-life equipment? opt-out or manage use of such communications?
d. How does the company ensure safe disposal of customer k. Does the company face allegations, investigation,
devices and e-waste generated from operations? litigation or other legal proceedings related to anti-
competitive behaviour, anti-trust and monopoly
e. Given the extensive use of electronic equipment
practices, corrupt practices in obtaining approvals,
across the industry, by both the service providers and
licences and spectrum or any other aspects?
the customer, is the company exploring technology
solutions that will entail less-frequent replacement of l. Has the company ever been fined or warned by the
hardware and considering software upgrades instead? telecom regulator for any reason?
f. What is the company’s stance on the potential health m. Given telecommunications infrastructure is often
hazards of electromagnetic radiation (EMF) from considered a strategic asset, what are the measures
base tower stations and from wireless devices used taken to prevent sabotage and recover from any
by customers? Is there any research programme or eventuality arising from natural or man-made disasters?
collaboration with other organisations to investigate this?

LOGISTICS
A SUPPLY CHAIN OF TOOLS: MAKING THE RIGHT INVESTMENT MOVES WITH
LOGISTIC SERVICE PROVIDERS
Logistics is the backbone of today’s supply-chain The logistics industry is relatively sensitive to
ecosystem, ensuring that people and goods are unpredictable external events, so don’t lose sight of
transported efficiently from one point to another, on macroeconomic factors. Gauge the sensitivity of the
time, in good condition, and at competitive prices. The business to changes in the economic conditions and
sector is evolving rapidly, as advances in technology levels of consumption in the regions in which it operates.
respond to distribution demands from e-commerce firms. Firms that specialise in home delivery could flourish in
Furthermore, disruptive forces are in play as new entrants territories where there is a burgeoning middle class, but
create services that we suddenly cannot live without. are also vulnerable to downturns in established markets.
Indeed, the home delivery functions of logistics players,
Logistics is also a labyrinthine industry that includes a which have until now been buoyed by the growth of
multitude of stakeholders, ranging from governments to e-commerce, could be threatened by the so-called
warehouse operators, freight specialists, port authorities, e-tailers—Alibaba and Amazon, among others—who are
transport companies, and ultimately, the end-user. looking to forward integrate into distribution.
In the logistics industry, finding two firms that are entirely With a basic understanding of the various demand
alike is difficult. Thus, establishing a complete picture of drivers that impact each arm of the company’s portfolio
a company’s portfolio of services to gain insights into the of services, examine the company’s pricing model by
logic of its business model is vital. For example, does the comparing it with that of its peers within the same
company cater to the retail or industrial markets? Armed industry. Logistics firms do not have much wriggle room
with that information, you will have a roadmap to help drill when it comes to pricing. For example, if we take two
into the demand factors in each division of the logistics broadly similar businesses transporting good from Kuala
company’s business. Lumpur (KL) to Singapore by road, we see they both
face the same fuel prices and distance covered, yet will
As in any other industry, demand is fundamental in
undoubtedly offer different freight rates, discounts, and
logistics. Find out where in the world the company’s
pricing models. To find out how they do this, research
demand originates, paying attention to the different
(among other things) the firm’s transport planning. Is it
services offered by the company and the types of cargo
efficient? A good measure to examine is its load-to-truck
moving from one point to another. Volume is another
ratio—a lower ratio translates into cheaper freight rates.
crucial factor—how many packages are regularly in transit
What is its vehicle mix? Is it flexible enough to adapt to
and at which times of the year?
changes in demand? Does the company own its trucks
or just lease them? Also, consider whether a bias exists
toward contract drivers or full-time employees.
LOGISTICS
From an environmental, social, and governance If we return to our two trucking businesses plying the
perspective, the logistics industry offers a certain KL/Singapore route, you should get to know how they
amount of clarity to help you formulate your research. are utilising technology in their different functions. For
The global transport of goods consumes large amounts example, have they automated their warehouse operations
of fossil fuel, so take stock of the emissions intensity and eliminated the need for forklift truck drivers? As
of the company’s operations and the steps it takes to e-commerce continues to evolve and competition
offset its carbon footprint. Packaging is another angle to increases, automation is unavoidable. In a similar vein to
contemplate—think of all those small online purchases what has happened in the financial industry, the logistics
that arrive in large boxes! Therefore, enquire whether space is heavily influenced by the development of cutting-
the company is seeking to reduce packaging and use edge technology. If the phrase has not already been
biodegradable or recycled material. coined, we can call this evolution logtech.
Another aspect to inspect is the operational performance
of the company and how its key metrics, such as margins
and costs, compare with its competitors. What impact do
changes in freight rates, fuel costs, and exchange rates
have on these metrics? As we know, past performance
is no guide to the future, so look at how the long-term
megatrends—macroeconomic conditions, exchange rate
movements, technology, and demographics—affect the
company’s logistics business model. These will be the
key differentiating factors that separate a top-performing
logistic player from its peers.
About the Authors


LOGISTICS
02
REVENUE
Freight pricing
model
Comparison by
market and to peers
Seasonal
variation of rates
MODEL
03
01
DEMAND
Pricing model for Sensitivity of demand
bulk and repeat
customers
vs per unit changes
in freight rates
PERFORMANCE
FOR SERVICE
Freight volume Capacity
growth utilization rates
Service Seasonal Sensitivity to

Mix effect on macroeconomic
LOGISTICS
demand factors
FX sensitivity Costs as a Fuel costs as
Infographic showing the and percentage of percentage of
06 ESG step-by-step process hedging revenue total costs

of analyzing the
Logistics industry
04 STRUCTURAL
INFLUENCES
Emissions per Carbon footprint
unit of ton-mile offset
05
LOGTECH Economic growth Demographic trends
in key markets in key markets
Working Marine
conditions pollution
E-commerce penetration Scalability of

in key markets e-commerce infrastructure Consumption vs. Impact and adoption
Investment of technology
Use of biodegradable / contribution in
recycled packaging material key markets
Strategy to compete with Opportunities and

asset-light competitors threats from e-tailers

LOGISTICS
1. Please provide details of the company’s portfolio 5. What are the long-term factors expected to drive
of services. growth? How does the company expect these to evolve?
a. What are the different services provided: surface a. What are the demographic and macroeconomic growth
transportation, air cargo, marine shipping, forwarding? trends in key markets?
b. Which market segments are catered for: retail, b. What is the mix of consumption share versus
commodities, industrial? investment share of the economy in markets where the
c. What type of cargo is handled: bulk, raw material, company operates? How is this evolving? Is the firm’s
finished goods? operating model geared to align with these trends?
d. Which regions are currently being served? c. What is the likely impact of an expected shift from
ownership based (buy and use) to access-based (rent/
share and use) consumption models?
2. What are the various factors affecting demand for the
d. To what extent is the impact of technologies such as
company’s services?
autonomous driving, robotics and drones impacting the
a. What is the mix of demand from different services, company’s operations?
market segments, cargo types and regions?
b. How is the demand mix in terms of number of packages, 6. What is the level of market concentration and
volume of cargo and freight tariff charged? entry barriers?
c. What are the seasonal variations in this demand mix?
a. What is the market share of the top-three and top-five
d. How have the demand mix and seasonality been players? What is the company’s current market share?
historically and how are these trends evolving?
b. What are the significant barriers for new players to enter
the industry?
3. What is the impact of macroeconomic factors c. To what extent does technology facilitate the entry of
on demand? new entrants?
a. How sensitive is demand to economic conditions and
consumption in regions in which the company operates? 7. To what extent is technology utilized in
different functions?
4. What are the company’s freight rates, discounts and a. Does the company have an integrated platform for cargo
pricing model? handling and tracking?
a. What freight rates are charged for different services and b. Does the firm use technology-driven solutions to prevent
cargo types? loss of packages?
b. How do these rates vary by market segment and c. Are automated updates provided to customers about the
by region? movement of their packages?
c. How do the company’s rates compare with those d. How much technology is utilized in forecasting demand
charged by peers? and optimizing resources?
d. On what basis are rates determined? e. Are software solutions utilized to optimize deliveries?
e. What pricing model is adopted for bulk and repeat users?
f. Are there any seasonal variations in the rates charged?
g. How sensitive is demand to per unit changes in
freight rates?
LOGISTICS
Logistics Providers
8. How has the company performed operationally? How 10. How will the evolution of e-commerce likely affect the
do key metrics compare with peers and how are trends company’s operations?
expected to evolve?
a. What is the share of e-commerce in key markets and
a. What freight volume growth trends exist in terms of across product categories?
number of packages, tonnage and ton-miles carried? b. How mature is the payments infrastructure required to
b. How have the company’s capacity utilization rates support the growth of e-commerce?
evolved? Is there any seasonality in utilization rates? c. How does the company view the trend of large
c. How much have freight rates changed in the past e-commerce retailers, such as Amazon setting up their
five years? own logistics operations?
d. What are the company’s costs as a percentage d. What is the company’s strategy to leverage
of revenue? opportunities arising from the rise of e-commerce?
d. What is the company’s fuel cost as a percentage of
total costs? 11. How much competition is expected due to new
business models?
9. How has the company performed financially? How a. What is the company’s view on the evolution of asset-
do key metrics compare to peers and how are trends light models, such as Postmates and Amazon Flex?
expected to evolve?
a. What is the currency mix of the company’s revenue and
cost base?
b. What are the company’s gross, operating and net margins?
c. How sensitive are revenues and margins to per unit
changes in freight rates?
d. How sensitive are margins to per unit changes in
fuel costs?
e. What is the sensitivity of revenues and margins to
changes in exchange rates?
e. What is the firm’s hedging strategy to manage volatility
in fuel costs and exchange rates?
LOGISTICS
Marine Shipping Environmental, Social and
Governance
12. What factors affect demand for shipping services? 16. The company’s ESG principles, practices and
a. How sensitive is shipping demand to changes in global track record.
trade growth and mix? a. What is the emissions intensity of the company’s
b. To what extent has new capacity been added to operations? What emissions are generated per unit of
the industry? How has this impacted demand and ton-mile handled?
price realization? b. Are customers offered the option of offsetting the
c. How does the company foresee capacity addition carbon footprint of their consignments?
evolving in future? c. Does the firm encourage customers to reduce packaging
and use biodegradable or recycled material, and
13. What is the impact of macroeconomic factors facilitate such choices? Do plant-based packaging
on demand? materials sourced from suppliers adhere to recognized
forest certification schemes?
a. How does the company view the impact of
manufacturing moving back to developed countries from d. What proportion of the company’s facilities are certified
developing countries, driven by industrial automation for / practice measures to save energy, water and
and 3D printing? reduce emissions?
e. What is the company’s track record relating to working
conditions for employees and contractors?
14. What factors facilitate/impede the entry of
new players? f. What measures are implemented in the company’s
facilities, fleet and other operations to ensure the health
a. What different licenses and approvals need to be and safety of personnel? What is the company’s track
obtained for a company to operate shipping services? record in terms of fatalities, injury rates and lost time
b. How difficult is it to obtain these and what are the incident rates?
typical costs involved? g. What is the company’s track record with respect to
c. How vulnerable to piracy are the routes the company marine pollution (discharge of black and grey water)?
operates in? How much additional cost is incurred in What measures have been implemented to minimize
minimizing the risk of piracy? environmental impacts?
15. How has the company performed operationally? How

do key metrics compare with peers and how are trends
expected to evolve?
a. What proportion of the company’s freight ships are
owned and leased?
b. How does the company decide whether to own or lease
vessels? What are the implications for the balance sheet
and margins?

PALM OIL
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS
By Alan Lok, CFA, Eunice Chu, and Guruprasad Jambunathan
From cooking oil to biofuel, to the oleochemicals used in For midstream manufacturing, look at plant utilisation
food additives, soaps, cosmetics, lubricants, and textiles, levels, and the breakdown of sales between CPO refining,
palm oil and its refined derivatives touch our lives in many oleochemicals, and speciality oil and fat production; the
ways. Given the commodity’s ubiquity, we decided to latter are used in infant foods, animal nutrition, bakery, and
perform some extraction of our own, and provide insights confectionery products. At the downstream end, factor in
into the factors and dynamics to consider when analysing the relative contribution of production (of edible and non-
companies involved in the production of palm oil. edible oils and fats, blended oils, and biodiesel) related
revenue sources as against those earned from trading and
distribution activities. Adding to the complexity, revenue
MARKET PLAYERS also tends to be affected by global developments and
foreign exchange rate movements, as most of the
ASEAN countries are by far the largest producers of palm oil, production tends to be exported.
representing 85% of global productivity, with Indonesia and
Malaysia the most prominent players. Thailand, Nigeria, and Given the differing strands of revenue generation, no two
Colombia mostly account for the remainder of the world’s plantation companies are the same. For instance, at the
output. The leading consumers geographically are India, upstream level, yield can differ dramatically depending on
where palm oil is used in a crude form as cooking oil; the EU, where the plantation is located and the maturity profile of
which utilises refined products in the manufacture of the trees. Therefore, doing a comparison based solely on
biodiesel and confectionery products; and China, which, like plantation size is meaningless.
India, is a leading cooking-oil consumer.
Given the relative significance of the commodity in this FACTORS INFLUENCING PROFIT
part of the world, there are a number of palm oil or related
companies trading on the Singapore Exchange, Bursa Many determinants of profitability must be taken into
Malaysia, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Singapore- account when analysing this sector. Because palm oil a
listed Wilmar and Malaysian companies Sime Darby, labour-intensive sector, salary costs and wage inflation
KL Kepong, and IOI Corporation are among the largest have a strong bearing on operations of a company in the
businesses in the region. sector. Pest management, fertiliser, and transportation
cost, could be significant here. Effective adoption of
technology and advanced plantation management
A COMPLEX REVENUE STORY practices (grafting, tissue culture, and the cloning of
selected varieties) are also important determinants of
Palm oil companies vary in their degree of integration, with profitability. Also, the quality and quantity of the land bank
the sales and income potential a function of a company’s may determine the profit profile of the upstream players.
positioning in the value chain. Positions range from Assess the maturity profile of the land, which is split into
upstream plantation production and midstream refining, to three phases:
downstream trading and distribution. As a result, many
metrics must be considered when choosing to invest in a • 3–7 years: yield growth phase
name from this sector. • 7–12 years: mature phase
• 12–25 years: yield decline phase
In assessing revenue potential at the upstream plantation
level, fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production yield per hectare, Simultaneously, review the "brownfield-greenfield" mix,
mill production, and the extraction rates of crude palm oil and the proximity to environmentally sensitive areas.
(CPO) and palm kernel need to be examined depending
on the product profile of the company. Additionally, From a broader business perspective, try to gauge the level
the monitoring of average-selling-price trends (usually of dependency on specific product types, customers, and
measured in US dollars per metric tonne) is critical to gauge geographical areas, as well as the extent of competition.
the company’s pricing power in the market. Aside from the number of market participants, profitability
dynamics are influenced by the existence of barriers to entry
for new players, and the availability of substitute products.
PALM OIL
RISKS TO WATCH FOR AN EVOLVING INDUSTRY

As with other commodity products, CPO prices will fluctuate Responding to these risks, the palm oil industry is
depending on the level of global stockpiles. Furthermore, undergoing an inevitable transformation. For instance,
harvests and yields may be highly sensitive to climate business costs are rising due to more stringent licensing
factors such as the amount of rainfall or El Niño events. requirements relating to land clearance, as well as conflict
Although, the climate aspect is common to many resolution compensation. Merger and acquisition (M&A)
agricultural commodity producers, the palm oil industry is activity among the more prominent companies may also
seeing an increasing structural influence from the green become a trend worth observing.
movement, which is focusing on sustainability issues. The determinants here are:
Already evident in Europe, environmental, social, and • cost savings through economies of scale;
governance (ESG) initiatives, such as the increased • commodity traders’ preference to integrate upwards for
adoption of No Deforestation, No Peat, and No Exploitation risk-diversification purposes
policies applicable to entire supply chains, are now gaining • the increasing complexity of global supply-chain
traction in Asia. The implications of this are discussed in management through the adoption of new information
more detail later in this framework. technology, which is increasing the appeal of M&A
• the need to establish a sustainable source of renewable
Palm oil is also an industry where regulatory factors have a energy platform encouraging nonplantation players to
bearing on the economics of each business. These are enter the palm oil industry.
manifest in rules relating to maximum land-size ownership, Given the changing operational landscape, players will find
price intervention in countries such as Indonesia, where it imperative to create their own set of differentiators
CPO cooking oil is a central metric in the calculation of around their core competencies to survive. Such trends
inflation, and the use of import tariffs in other territories. need to be closely watched and could include:
An additional aspect to scrutinise is the development of • the achievement of superior crop yields;
new sources of supply. The palm-oil industry is not only • enhanced operational efficiency through higher
expanding in its established geographies, but some Asian productivity and economies of scale;
companies are also creating land banks in Latin America • superior technical expertise in resource manufacturing
and West-Central Africa. • becoming more adept at sustainability practice–
adherence to this creates the potential to unlock
This enlargement presents some challenges, as each "green"-sensitive overseas markets.
new territory comes with its own ESG conditions. For
example, some operations have been blocked by land-use
conflicts in Africa. Meanwhile, as part of its 2020 strategy DRIVE WITH CARE
for reducing emissions, Indonesia introduced a moratorium
that prohibited new palm-oil-plantation licenses in primary We can identify some growth drivers that could impact the
forests and peatlands. The halt in development, which was sector in the medium-to-long term. Palm oil is an increasingly
first decided in 2011, and subsequently extended for the important ingredient in cosmetics and health products, given
third time in May 2017, will run until May 2019. As other its relatively high functionality-versus-cost ratio. It is the most
national governments may decide to follow suit to meet productive vegetable oil, so if advances in technology lead to
climate targets, it is essential to consider how these improvements in taste, we will see its role as a substitute for
suspensions could impact those companies that have not higher-grade cooking oil continue to expand.
yet adopted zero-deforestation policies.
There is also the prospect of palm oil being developed as a
Amid growing health consciousness, we should point biofuel, but bear in mind that this evolution could be
out that there are mixed views on the merits of palm oil. stymied by the EU, which proposes to exclude palm oil from
However, it is difficult to comment across the board as the its Renewable Energy Directive (RED). The final decision on
health benefits, or otherwise, largely depend on how the oil this will not be made until the end of 2018.
is processed as well as on indeed, the diet of each
As previously mentioned, ESG-related matters play a
consumer.
significant role in influencing company survival and
profitability in this sector. Elements to contemplate include
the scope and robustness and of a firm’s sustainability
policy. Understanding whether a firm's requirements
extend to smallholders and suppliers will help in gauging
the risk of environmental and social controversies arising
within a business’s operations or in its supply chain.
The level of supply traceability is another vital factor to
PALM OIL
consider. Traceability provides evidence of the journey Broader factors relate to the rights and treatment of some
taken by the raw material from plantation or mills to the indigenous peoples and local communities, the "food
customer; it is critical to support claims that the product versus fuel" debate, deforestation and ecological damage,
adheres to best practice from a sustainable standpoint. and the rights of labour.
Emission intensity and effluent management are other
environmental considerations. Increasingly, the certification and proper reporting of ESG is
vital, as the industry is being required to meet stringent
In practice, the Consumer Goods Forum, which includes environmental standards. In March 2016, a company
giants such as Kellogg’s and Unilever, has vowed to listed in Malaysia was suspended from the Roundtable
improve its supply chains and bypass palm oil companies for Sustainable Palm Oil certification programme for ESG
associated with deforestation. The Forum’s goal is to see failings. In response, the firm in question introduced greater
zero clearances by 2020. transparency and enhanced its dialogue with stakeholders.
By August of 2016, the company was reinstated after the
authorities declared themselves satisfied with the
progress made.
About the Authors

protection issues and capital market structure and co-authored a CFA Institute position paper on capital market integrity,
“Portfolio Pumping in Singapore: Myth or Reality.” Mr. Lok has more than 10 years of equity research experience, spanning
than 12 years of experience in equity research and works closely with a broad clientele of buy-side and sell-side firms as well
as with academic think tanks across various continents.
With Contributions From:
Clara Melot: Clara Melot joined the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) in 2016 as SPOTT Engagement and Impacts Manager.
Clara leads on engagement with the finance sector to promote the ESG assessments of Timber, pulp and palm oil producers
and traders provided on ZSL’s SPOTT platform. Clara has an MA in Marketing and Advertising from La Sorbonne University and
an MSc in Environmental Policy and Regulation from the London School of Economics. Before joining ZSL, Clara worked in the
Corporate partnerships department at WWF-France and supported the work of the Climate and Forest team at London-based
environmental NGO ClientEarth.
Joyce Lam: Joyce Lam j oined the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) in 2017 as SPOTT Manager after spending over a decade
with Proforest. She has over 15 years of experience in responsible sourcing of timber and paper products. Ms. Lam has
experience in auditing of timber product manufacturers, developing and delivering training courses on responsible sourcing,
and has been involved in several projects related to Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade (FLEGT) in Vietnam and
China. Previously, she worked for the Forest and Trade Network in WWF Hong Kong generating the demand for FSC certified
forest products.

PALM OIL
02
USAGE –
SOURCES
OF DEMAND
Cooking oil Cheap substitute
for butter/trans fats 03
REVENUE POTENTIAL
Position in value chain
01
Non-edible use:
Toiletries, cosmetics Biofuel
GEOGRAPHY
Upstream Midstream Downstream
(Plantation) (Manufacturing) (Trading and
distribution)
Suppliers Consumers
• Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand make-up
85% of global output
• India – cooking oil
• EU – biodiesel and
confectionery (as 04 DETERMINANTS
OF PROFITABILITY
• Nigeria, Columbia,
Others
butter substitute)
• China – cooking oil PALM OIL
A step-by-step guide
to analyzing the
07
palm oil industry
ESG FACTORS Costs Management
practices
Level of
competition
Quantity and Dependence on

Sustainability
policy
Palm oil
traceability
Certification
and reporting 05
KEY RISKS
quality of
land bank
product types/
consumers/
geography
Emission
intensity
Land use tussle
with indigenous
people
Food versus
fuel debate
06
EVOLVING Sensitive to Yield sensitive to Green
global stockpile climate changes movement
INDUSTRY Cost of
business
DYNAMICS increasing
Effluent
management
Deforestation Community &
and environmental labor rights Health New supply of Increased
damage consciousness suitable land regulations
Consolidation Standing of consumers
amongst differentiated
larger players by core
competencies

PALM OIL
Palm Oil Producers
1. What are the details of the company’s products? 4. How much demand is driven by biodiesel use?
a. Which parts of the supply chain does the company operate a. What factors drive the demand for biodiesel?
in: upstream (oil palm plantations), midstream (kernel b. What is the price differential with petroleum-based diesel?
crushing plants, oil extraction mills, palm oil refineries etc.),
c. At what level of crude oil price does biodiesel become
downstream (production of edible and non-edible oils and
economical, without subsidies?
fats, blended oils, biodiesel etc.) or trading?
d. How is the price parity between petro-diesel and bio-
b. What products does the company produce: fresh fruit
diesel expected to evolve?
bunches (FFB), crude palm oil (CPO), palm kernel meal
(PKM), crude palm kernel oil (CPKO), refined oils, edible e. What are the major regions consuming biodiesel?
and non-edible (such as oleochemicals) oils and fats, f. What is the extent of biodiesel subsidy given by the
blended oils, biodiesel? governments in those regions?
c. What is the split between bulk and specialty products? g. How long are the subsidy regimes likely to continue?
d. What is the mix by saturated fatty acid content of the
end products? 5. What is the geographic profile of consumption of the
e. What proportion of the company’s products are covered company’s products?
by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)
a. Which are the major markets for the company’s different
certification regime?
products in terms of current and future demand?
f. What is the mix of the products by the four RSPO-defined
b. What is the split between developed markets and
sustainable palm oil supply chain options (Green Palm,
developing markets?
Identity Preserved, Mass Balance and Segregated)?
c. Which are the markets with high sensitivity to the
sustainability issues surrounding oil palm-based products?
2. Which end-user markets does the company cater to?
a. How much of the products are sold in bulk vs in retail? 6. What is the profile and drivers of demand for the
b. Who are the end users: food producers (makers of company’s products?
processed foods, confectionaries, pastries, chocolate,
a. How much of the demand in each end market is met by
margarine, breads, cookies, ice-cream, instant noodles
palm-based fats vs fats from other sources?
etc.), food service providers (quick service restaurants,
industrial caterers etc.), non-food uses (makers of b. At what rate is the consumption of fats and oils by each
cosmetics, toiletries, cleaning products, industrial & end market growing in the key markets?
process chemicals, pharmaceuticals, animal feed, c. How does growth in consumption of palm-based fats
biofuels, lubricants and paints)? compare with that of fats from other sources?
c. Does the company supply packaged products to retail d. For each of the end-use markets, what are the
chains to be sold under their own private labels? substitutes to palm-based fats? What are the relative
d. Does the company sell its products directly to retail merits and demerits of the substitutes? How does this
customers (households, small eateries etc.) under the affect demand for palm-based fats?
company’s own brand? e. What are the different factors driving demand - price, easy
availability, lack of substitutes, lack of domestic sources,
quality and health aspects etc. - for different products in
3. What is the consumption profile of the company’s
different end markets across different regions?
products?
f. Is there any seasonality in demand for the
a. What is the demand for bulk vs specialty products? company’s products?
b. What is the per capita direct consumption of edible fat
and oils (primarily as cooking medium) in regions which
are the company’s key markets?
c. How much is the per capita indirect consumption
(processed and packaged foods) of edible fats?
d. What is the share of processed and packaged foods in
the consumption platter?
e. What is the consumption levels of non-edible fats and
oils (toiletries, cosmetics etc.)?
PALM OIL
7. Which factors determine pricing of the 10. What are the consumer-driven factors expected to
company’s products? influence structural demand?
a. What is the price differential compared to other oils and a. What will be the effect of increasing consumer
sources of fat? awareness of, and negative perception on, health
b. How do the prices of different products compare: CPO, implications of fats, trans fats and Genetically Modified
PKO, RPO, edible oil and fats, biodiesel? Organisms (GMO) crops on demand?
c. How does the fatty acid content in the end product b. To what extent does the positive perception of palm as
affect prices? a non-GMO source of low trans-fat oil offset the negative
perception as a high saturated fat oil posing higher risk
d. What are the categories under which the products are
of heart diseases and cancer?
classified based on the fatty acid content?
c. How will the changing perception of quality of different
e. How do the perceptions of quality and health
oils influence consumer preferences?
influence prices?
d. Is the rising sentiment against GMO likely to affect
f. Which end-use markets provide better prices?
consumer choices?
g. Are there any seasonal variations in pricing?
e. How will the rising preference for natural and organic
produce influence consumer choices?
8. What is the mix of revenue and profits?
a. What is the mix of revenue and profits by end markets, 11. What are the regulation-driven factors likely to
products and regions? influence structural demand?
b. How do the margins vary across end markets, products a. What are the labelling requirements regarding the
and regions? source of oil used, in different regions?
c. What are the margins in different parts of the supply chain? b. Are there any upcoming regulatory changes in this regard?
c. What are the changes and their effects on use of palm-
9. What are the long-term drivers for the based products?
company’s business? d. What is the extent of challenges to oil palm demand
a. What are the per capita direct and indirect consumption from environmental activism?
levels of products in different regions? What is the share e. How does the company intend to manage these challenges?
of consumption levels by end markets and by products?
b. How much is the potential for structural growth in different 12. What are the potential substitutes to palm-based fats
end markets and products across regions? Which of these in different end markets and products?
markets are expected to drive structural growth?
a. What are the challenges associated with the
c. Which markets, by end use and by geography, have
substitutes? To what extent do those challenges work in
higher sensitivity to sustainability issues surrounding oil
favour of palm?
palm-based products?
b. How long are these challenges likely to persist? When
d. Are consumers in other geographies likely to become
and at what price point is the cost-benefit balance likely
more sensitive to sustainability issues, as income and
to turn against palm?
prosperity levels increase?
e. What are the areas where technology can be seen
playing a significant role: mechanisation of plantation 13. What is the market concentration and barriers to entry?
operations, crop management, oil extraction, sustainable a. What is the share of top 3 and top 5 suppliers by
management etc.? products, end markets and regions?
b. What are the factors facilitating or impeding entry of
new players?
c. Are there any mandated or voluntary moratorium on
planting in new land?
d. How difficult will it be for a new entrant to compete, in
the context of increased focus on sustainability?
e. Does a new entrant have an advantage by starting with
a clean slate – without having a track record of past
practices that are now considered undesirable?
PALM OIL
14. What is the size and quality of the company’s land bank? 17. What is the scenario with respect to labour availability
and cost?
a. What is the mix of land bank owned by the company vs
managed by the company? a. How labour intensive are the company’s operations in
b. Where are the land parcels located? terms of man hours required per hectare of plantations,
per tonne of CPO or PKO extracted etc.?
c. How close to legally protected areas, High Conservation
Value Areas (HCVA) and High Carbon Stock Areas (HCSA) b. How easy or difficult is it to find workers with the
are the company’s holdings situated? necessary skills?
d. How conducive are the zoning and land use regulations c. What is the share of local population in the
governing plantations? How are these likely to evolve? company’s workforce?
Does the company foresee any potential challenges? d. What is the extent of dependence on migrant workers
e. What are the restrictions on ownership of plantation land? from other regions or countries?
f. Is foreign ownership of plantation land permitted? e. How has been the wage inflation? How is it expected
to evolve?
g. Are there any ceilings on the extent of land that can be
owned by a single entity?
h. What is the likelihood of parts of the company’s land bank 18. What are the crop management practices employed by
being acquired by government for various purposes? the company?
a. What are the details of the company’s cropping and
15. What is the extent of brownfield (planted) vs greenfield plantation management practices?
(unplanted) holdings? b. How do these practices compare with those of peers?
What distinguishes the company’s practices?
a. What is the ageing schedule of the company’s fields?
c. What is the mix of crop by varieties of palm? How is the
b. What is the share of fields having plants that are
decision on to what variety to plant where made?
younger than the harvestable age of 3 years?
d. Is there any preferred variety of crop that is
c. What is the proportion of fields that have started
used extensively?
yielding produce (age greater than 3 years)?
e. Are techniques such as grafting, tissue culture and
d. What is the extent of fields in the yield growth phase
cloning used to multiply preferred varieties and plants
(age from 3 to 7 years)?
that produce high-quality FFBs?
e. How much of the company’s fields are mature (fields
f. Does the company use hybrid and GMO varieties?
that are near, at or past the peak of production—age
from 7 to 12 years)? g. How much crop inputs such as fertilisers, herbicides and
pesticides are used per hectare of plantation and per
f. How much of the fields are in the yield decline phase
tonne of CPO and PKO produced?
(age from 12 to 25 years)?
h. Does the company practice integrated pest
g. How much of the fields are close to end of productive
management (IPM)? How does the cost-benefit balance
lifespan (age greater than 25 years)?
compare with the conventional, intensive practices?
h. What is the average distance from the fields to
extraction mills?
19. How much yields are generated from the
company’s plantations?
16. How is the industry structure evolving?
a. What are the Kernel (KER) and Oil Extraction Rates (OER)?
a. Are key players likely to integrate vertically across the
b. How much yield is generated from a hectare of plantation?
supply chain?
c. How do the yields from the company’s plantations
b. Which parts of the supply chain are likely to witness
compare with those from plantations of peers which
more integration?
are of similar land quality, geographical location and
c. What are the factors driving this trend: better margins, experience similar climatic patterns?
security of supplies, control of value chain, sustainability
issues etc.?
PALM OIL
20. What is the milling capacity and utilisation rates of the 23. What are the various risk factors the business is
company’s extraction facilities? exposed to?
a. What is the average utilisation rate of the mills? a. How much vulnerable are the yields to unexpected
b. How seasonal is the utilisation rate? How is the weather conditions, rainfall patterns and extreme
utilisation rate optimised? weather phenomena such as El Nino?
c. What is the average time taken from harvest to move b. How does the company intend to cope with the
FFBs from fields to extraction mills? increasingly unpredictable weather cycles driven by
climate change?
c. What is the likelihood of government intervention
from the perspective of competition, given the highly
measures? How does the performance compare with
concentrated nature of the industry?
that of peers? How are these expected to evolve?
d. What is the level of preparedness to the risk of
a. What has been the volume growth of different products? consumer countries imposing tariff or non-tariff barriers
b. What has been the growth in average selling price on palm-based products on various grounds such as
of products? predatory pricing, labour conditions, conflicts with
c. What are the major components of the costs? indigenous communities, deforestation and wildlife
habitat destruction?
d. What is the share of labour cost as a percentage of
revenue and total cost? e. How significant and tangible is the risk of a consumer-led
backlash on health, ecological and sustainability grounds?
e. How much is the cost of crop inputs as a percentage of
revenue, cost, per hectare of plantation and per tonne of
CPO and PKO produced?
22. How has the company performed on financial

measures? How do these compare with those of
peers? How are these expected to evolve?
a. What has been the company’s revenue growth? What
are the components by volume growth, price growth,
inorganic growth and foreign exchange effect?
b. What has been the gross, operating and net margins?
c. What has been the revenue, costs and profits per
hectare of plantation?
PALM OIL
Governance
24. Could details of the company’s ESG principles, practice l. What has been the track record on worker safety
and track record be provided? and welfare?
a. How much of the company’s land bank and plantations m. What are the measures in place to avoid child labour
are, or formerly were, tropical rain forest, peat land, critical across the entire supply chain?
habitat for threatened flora or fauna, HCVA or HCSA? What n. Has the company ever faced accusations of violation of
does the company intend to do with the part of these land human rights, mistreatment of indigenous communities
parcels which are not yet developed / planted? or labour laws and regulations?
b. Does the company abide by the moratorium on planting o. Has the company faced or, is currently facing,
in new land? How long has this been observed? litigation for issues relating to deforestation, global
c. When was the last time new land was cultivated? How warming contributions, labour issues, social conflicts
large are those plantations and where are they located? with local communities, pollution from palm oil fires or
How was the said land used previously? any other issues?
d. What is the proportion of plantations that were p. Does the company participate in programmes such as
subjected to carbon stock review, Environmental and the Indonesian Nucleus Estates project, to develop oil
Social Impact Assessment (EIA/SIA) before clearance palm plots for small and subsistence farmers?
and planting? q. Has the company ever faced accusations of encroaching
e. Is there a Biodiversity Action Plan for the plantations? on legally protected areas?
f. What is the direct (from plantation and milling r. How much of the company’s output of various products
operations) and indirect (from forest clearance and complies with ESG standards presently? What are the
consequent loss of carbon sink) emission intensity? standards followed?
g. How much of the pesticides and herbicides used are s. Is the company able to offer traceability of ESG
approved by the RSPO? compliance across the entire supply chain? How
much of the production is yet to be covered by fully
h. Does the company monitor the effect of its crop and
traceability regime?
pest management practices on the natural ecosystem
adjacent to the company’s plantations? t. What are the different mandates for ESG compliance that
are likely to come into force?
i. How much palm oil mill effluent (POME) and other wastes
are released per unit of oil extracted? u. How much additional share of production will these
mandates cover?
j. How does the company ensure proper treatment and
safe disposal of effluents and waste generated?
k. What has been the track record in managing conflicts
with communities displaced by or living in proximity to
the company’s plantations?

PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
LUMPS, BUMPS, AND SLUMPS
By Alan Lok, CFA, Eunice Chu, and Guruprasad Jambunathan
In a complex and fast-moving financial world, it’s comforting For companies that do not fall into this category, the need
to know that some sectors remain relatively easy to to smooth out their income stream is far stronger. The
understand. A case in point is property development. The following steps may stabilise the variations in a firm’s
property developer acquires land and an architect then financial statements:
designs the building and obtains planning approval before
passing the baton to the construction team. • Develop the land in phases. The first tranche is completed
and sold, often at a lower entry price to generate interest
At this stage, the developer could choose to undertake in the project. When word gets out that the initial stage
marketing and sales before construction is complete or was well-received, work will start on phase two. By
wait until the last brick falls into place. Either way, you can adopting this approach, the smaller developer’s revenue
then calculate the gross development value (GDV) of a will appear more fluid.
project or profit from the project, of which the sum of GDV,
• For developers that lack the financial resources to take on
excluding the developer’s liabilities, will yield the value of multiple enterprises, there is the option of running
the development. numerous projects through joint ventures. The landowner
supplies the land while the property developer does the
rest, which evens out revenue-reporting numbers and
FUNDAMENTAL #1: LUMPY REVENUE GENERATION reduces risk exposure to a project.
So far, so simple. There are, however, a few variations to this • Generate money from property investment. Developers
straightforward business model that you should note. We may hold onto units for rental purposes, forming
shall begin with the lumpy nature of revenue generation. a revenue base and providing earnings stability.
Alternatively, they may spin-off the property investment
It can take years to complete a project, and if the developer portfolio to a real estate investment trust (REIT), where
only has only one development, then the profit-and-loss dividends are declared on a quarterly or half-yearly basis.
account will not record any revenue during the planning
and construction phase – something that can stretch for It is also important to point out that any assessment of
many financial reporting quarters. Upon completion, and a property developer should consider the geographical
the subsequent sale of residential or commercial units, distribution of its revenue sources – diversification
revenue will spike before declining when all the units are reduces the risks associated with revenue concentration.
sold. Investors and analysts are somewhat uneasy with this Nevertheless, embodied in the points above are the all-
supposedly erratic performance. important reputation and track record of the company.
Purchasing real estate is not the same as buying fast-
That said, revenue volatility is not a pertinent issue for big moving goods and services. We can choose not to patronise
developers, as they usually have multiple projects running a restaurant due to poor service, but being saddled with a
concurrently with different completion dates. troubled property is painful, and the discomfort can be long
lasting. Buyers and investors certainly place reputation and
track record at a definite premium.
FUNDAMENTAL #2: THE DIFFERENT DEMAND FACTORS Alternatively, developers may acquire old buildings.
FOR PROPERTY DEVELOPERS Although this can be less expensive than participating in
auctions, such activity raises questions about the time and
For residential property developers, key statistics include cost-effectiveness of renovating or converting an existing
demographics: population, age, and net migration, as well asset. In some areas, developers may also "land bank"
as movement from the countryside to the city. Changes through the conversion of one use of land to another,
in income statistics should also be observed. Other areas subject to the jurisdiction of the local authority.
to investigate include issues relating to single-occupancy
city-centre apartments and suburban family houses. It also
pays to understand the culture of each market – is home FUNDAMENTAL #4: COMPANY ANALYSIS – DEVELOPERS
ownership seen as a measure of success or is perpetual AREN’T HOMOGENOUS
renting accepted as the norm?
Several key performance metrics can be employed in the
In the wake of near-zero interest rates, property prices study of developers. Sell-through rates for recently
have accelerated in many countries, including those in launched projects can be a direct indication of company
Asia Pacific where the price-to-income ratio (a measure of performance and an indication of track record and
affordability) has soared. It is indeed a concern and you will reputation. Observe changes in overall transaction volume,
likely solicit an angry response if the respondent has yet also known as transaction velocity, as there is a strong
to own a residential unit. Governments may therefore offer correlation between share prices and property transaction
subsidies to first-time home buyers, which can bode well for prices (as measured by property price index) and volume.
developers in the lower-end residential property space.
Changes in unsold inventory can indicate cyclical upswings
When examining the more cyclical commercial property and downswings. As a value measure, share price to
developers, begin by looking at economic data. Stronger revalued net asset value (RNAV, which is the book value of
growth and expansionary monetary policies usually suggest development property plus revaluation surplus) is a useful
an increase in business activity. Therefore, warehouses, metric. During an up cycle, this ratio may range from around
factories, and retail assets will be highly sought after. The 0.9 to 1.5. On the other hand, in a bear market can this ratio
expansion in the service industry will also propel demand may range from approximately 0.3 to 0.6.
for office space.
Studying how a developer manages its working capital
After that, drill down and explore the factors unique to each (WC) requirement is helpful. Such an assessment should
industry and the location of the property. For example, begin by analysing how the developer raises WC and the
when researching hotels, you should examine the growth in implications for the cost of capital and risk. At the same
tourist arrivals. Another significant factor is the expansion time, find out if the developer requires a higher level of WC
of e-commerce, with demand for retail space suffering in in different areas of its operations, such as projects in other
favour of high-tech warehousing space in Asia-Pacific. countries. Investors also need to note the developer’s
capital-allocation strategy in apportioning money to
FUNDAMENTAL #3: LAND – THE CRUCIAL RAW MATERIAL acquiring land parcels, developing properties, and other
competing uses.
IN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
Most developers possess a land bank, but this is an asset Another variation on the straightforward business model
that can be depleted if not replenished promptly. Companies is the outsourcing of construction to contractors, as well as
do participate in public auctions of land released by subcontractors. A developer’s essential competency rests
governments and can also choose to buy land from private on having a keen eye for acquiring reasonably priced land
owners. The key to land parcels is location, location, and parcels and developing these into coveted real estate
location – but not at any cost. Overly optimistic offer prices at trophies. While doing this, its management may decide
the peak of an economic cycle will hit the bottom line, more to focus on what generates value for the business and
so in highly developed territories where the land cost forms outsource the construction segment. When extracting
the overwhelming proportion of total development costs. value from construction, the core competency differs –
in this case, execution and cost control form the recipe
for success. If this is the variation, then capital and WC
requirements will be lower.

FUNDAMENTAL #5: SOURCES OF CAPITAL FUNDAMENTAL #6: RISKS - ANALYSE THESE UNDER
A MICROSCOPE
Funding is critical for property development projects.
External sources of money may come from bank loans, bond A developer may successfully bid for land during a boom
financing, share-rights issuance, or some other form of only to experience a subsequent market correction.
equity financing. Where a property developer has obtained Alternatively, it may bid overzealously and pay too much for
funding, take the time to understand the funding structure individual land plots. As land forms a sizeable portion of
because this can impact returns, especially if the company total production, this cost misstep will hurt.
is highly geared.
There may also be a supply shock with too many projects
being completed all at once. This oversupply can be
exacerbated by macroeconomic downturns, depressing
both prices and take-up rates. Highly leveraged developers
are acutely exposed when there is a double whammy of
falling prices and risk-averse buyers.
Government intervention in the market is a further source of

risk. Developers may experience the adverse consequence
arising from regulatory policy changes designed to curb a
perceived bubble.
For research points that look at the sector in more detail,

please refer to the respective sections of our guide.
About the Authors

Alan Lok, CFA, is Director of Society Advocacy Engagement, CFA Institute. He researches and writes on investor protection
issues and capital-market structure. He recently co-authored a CFA Institute position paper on capital-market integrity,
“Portfolio Pumping in Singapore: Myth or Reality.” Mr. Lok has more than 10 years of equity research experience, spanning
Guruprasad Jambunathan, FRM, is Director for Financial Research at CRISIL, a global research and analytics company. He
has more than 12 years of experience in equity research and works closely with a broad clientele of buy-side and sell-side
firms, as well as with academic think tanks across various continents.

PROPERTY
DEVELOPMENT
01 REVENUE SOURCES
Balancing Stable vs.
Lumpy (Uneven) Revenue
02
Structural Tiers of city – Regulatory Population
Influencers economic restraints • Demographics
• Migration
development (in relation to
friendliness
jurisdiction)
• Urbanisation
Property Property Strategic
investment development investments –
business – depending on
Rent collection specific asset
class nature Government Culture –
housing asset owning
subsidy vs rental
07 OTHERS PROPERTY
DEVELOPMENT 03 TYPE OF
PROPERTY
The business model of property ASSET CLASS
developers face related, yet
different, operational dynamics
ESG Other KPIs as those faced by the
• Sell-through rates asset owner (REITs)
• Unsold inventory
• Price to RNAV
• Price-to-income ratio Residential Commercial
06 RISK Industrial Hospitality
Mismatch of market
timing during property
development
Supply
shock
Unexpected
macro shock
05 SOURCES
OF FUNDING
04 SOURCES OF
LAND BANK
Legacy Redevelopment of
Over leveraged Market interest Average tenor of sources existing property
Committed Bond
gearing ratio rate change loan too short
banking facilities financing
Expectation mismatch Public auctions/ Conversion of

Regulatory Increase in land tenders land-use nature
(between type of units Rights issue Equity financing
policy vacancy
developed versus
end-consumer needs)
©©
CFA Institute
CFA 2018.
Institute AllAll
2018. rights reserved
rights reserved
Property Developers
1. What are the details of the project profile of the company? f. How prevalent is housing finance and how easy is it to
obtain home loans?
a. Does the company cater to both residential and non-
residential consumer categories? g. How stringent are the down payment requirements and
credit assessment norms?
b. How is the residential category classified in geographies
where the company operates? Are there additional h. What are the recent trends in building permit issuances,
segments beyond affordable or budget housing, mid-size, housing starts and unsold inventories?
luxury housing and retirement homes? Which of these i. How correlated are consumer confidence and
segments does the company operates in? employment conditions with new home sales, building
c. What are the types of properties the company develops permit issuances, housing starts and unsold inventories?
for the non-residential category? Does it cover segments
beyond offices, retail space, shopping malls, hotels and 4. What are the drivers of demand for properties in the
recreational facilities? non-residential market?
a. What are the trends in discretionary corporate spending
2. What are the drivers of demand for properties in the on buildings and other infrastructural facilities?
key markets?
b. Which are the industries driving demand for office and
a. How does the demand versus supply situation look in other non-residential properties?
different consumer categories and segments across the c. What are the office vacancy rates, unsold inventory levels
company’s key markets? and trends in commercial property prices?
b. Is there oversupply or undersupply in any specific d. How correlated are business confidence indicators with
segments, consumer categories or locations? occupancy rates?
c. How much relative importance do consumers attach e. How easily and quickly can properties be reconfigured
to factors such as location, quality, and reputation of for different uses? For example, can a property built
developer, pricing, total property cost, availability of for a traditional, large office space designed for a large
finance and payment terms while making purchase bank be converted into multiple smaller workspaces to
decisions? Are there any other critical factors considered accommodate start-up companies?
important by consumers across categories or segments
in different regions?
5. What are the factors driving property prices in the
d. To what extent does the company customize properties key markets?
to suit customer needs?
a. How do location, type and quality of property and
e. What is the trade-off between the level of customisation
availability of amenities affect prices?
and overruns in cost and time?
b. What is the share of properties that are self-funded by the
f. What is the extent of cyclicality and seasonality of
buyer versus those funded by borrowings?
demand for the company’s properties?
c. What is the size and liquidity of resale property market?
3. What are the drivers of demand for properties in the d. How does the availability of housing finance and ease of
residential category? payment terms influence prices?
e. What is the effect of liquidity and credit conditions
a. What is the level of unsold home inventories in different
on prices?
segments and regions?
f. How does the perception of property as an investment
b. Which segment is the company’s primary focus? Does
vehicle compare with that of other asset classes in the
this vary by region?
key markets?
c. How do house prices compare with income levels in
g. Is cyclicality observed in house prices? How does the
key markets?
company manage the impact of cyclicality?
d. How do the dynamics of home ownership vs rental
h. How does the company manage the trade-off between
accommodation compare in the key markets of
waiting for the best bidder (highest price) and maintaining
the company?
a light inventory of properties to sell?
e. How favourable is the regulatory environment for growth
of the housing finance market?
6. What is the mix of revenue and profits by consumer c. What are the approvals and licences required to operate
categories, segments and geographies? as a property developer? What is the ease and cost of
getting these clearances?
a. What is the mix of revenues and profits by consumer
categories, segments and regions? d. How easy and expensive is it to get skilled management
team, engineering and technical staff, with experience of
b. How do the margins vary by consumer categories,
successfully executing projects in the specific markets
segments and regions?
where the company operates?
e. Do any existing or proposed labour or immigration
7. What are the long-term drivers for the business? regulations affect the company’s ability to execute
a. What is the growth rate, median age and dependency projects in specific geographies?
ratio of the population in the key markets?
b. What are the home ownership rates in the key markets? 12. What are the various market and regulatory factors
c. What is the average household size and household affecting the availability of new properties in the
formation rate in the key markets? key markets?
d. What are the urbanisation and immigration rates in the a. What is the estimated size of land available for
key markets? development? Are sufficient land parcels in desired sizes
available in preferred locations?
8. What are the investment-driven factors that are b. How concentrated or fragmented are land holdings across
expected to influence structural demand? locations where development is planned?
c. How clear, reliable, transparent and accessible is the
a. What is the proportion of properties bought for own use
information on land titles?
versus those held for investment?
d. How prevalent and restrictive are zoning regulations? How
b. What are the private sector and household debt levels?
do they affect development costs and time?
What proportion of this is from residential and non-
residential mortgages? e. How easy is it to obtain necessary approvals and permits?
What is the typical time taken?
f. What is the typical transaction cost (registration charges,
9. What are the consumption-driven factors that are
stamp duty, professional fees, statutory levies, etc.) as a
expected to influence structural demand?
percentage of property value?
a. What are the various social, cultural and economic
factors that influence home and property ownership in
13. What are the details of the size and profile of the
the key markets?
company’s land bank?
a. Across key markets, how are company’s land
10. What are the regulation-driven factors that are expected
banks distributed?
to influence structural demand?
b. How close to civil, social and economic infrastructures are
a. What are the existing, upcoming or expected legislative and the land parcels located?
regulatory mandates on housing and affordable housing?
c. How does the profile (location, proximity, market
b. Are there any tax benefits to investors, builders and premium etc.) of the company’s land bank compare with
funders of housing and property development? that of competitors?
c. Which are the segments likely to benefit from these drivers?
14. How mature is the market for property financing?
11. What is the market concentration level and are there
barriers to entry of newer players? a. What are the various avenues available for investor
participation in the key markets: real estate investment
a. What is the share of top 3 and top 5 developers by trusts (REITs), real estate exchange traded funds
consumer categories, segments and regions? (ETFs), commingled real estate funds (CREFs) and
b. What are the factors facilitating or impeding entry of infrastructure funds?
new players? b. What is the extent of participation of various classes of
investors (retail, high net worth individuals, institutions,
retirement funds etc.) in the property market?
15. How conducive is government policy on 18. How are working capital requirements managed?
property development?
a. What is the preferred mode of raising working capital (WC)?
a. Is the policy stance of governments on, and b. What is the currency mix of the WC?
engagement with, property development active or
c. What has been the weighted average cost of the WC?
passive in the key markets?
d. How are the currency mix and cost of the WC expected
b. What are the major objectives driving the policy stance
to evolve?
and level of activity of the government?
e. What is the sensitivity of interest rate and forex volatility
c. How clear, consistent and reliable is the policy stance,
on the cost of WC?
pronouncements, prescriptions and enforcement?
f. Do the company’s operations in specific projects,
d. Are there components of the government policy which
consumer categories, segments or geographies require
influence demand, distort market activity or affect
higher levels of working capital than others?
property prices?
19. How efficiently has the company utilised capital?

measures? How do these compare with peers? How are a. What is the capital allocation strategy between acquiring
these expected to evolve? land banks and developing properties?
a. What has been the growth rate of the size of the b. What is the target financial leverage level maintained
company’s property portfolio sold in terms of gross floor by the company? Has the company been successful in
area and value? maintaining its leverage within this range? How often
have there been exceptions?
b. What has been trend in average selling price per
square foot? c. What has been the asset turnover by consumer
categories, segments and regions?
c. How fast do the expectations of property buyers change?
d. How long is the development cycle in different consumer
d. How does the company track and manage the changing
categories, segments and regions?
preferences of buyers?
20. How has the company performed on financial

17. What are the major components of the company’s
measures? How do these compare with peers? How are
cost structure?
a. What is the cost of building material and supplies as a
a. What has been the average selling price and revenue
proportion of selling price and total cost?
growth by volume (floor space, number of units) for different
b. How does the material and supply cost vary by consumer consumer categories, segments and geographies?
categories, segments and regions? Are there any
b. How are incoming cash flows structured? Are they tied to
bottlenecks on this front?
an agreed schedule based on time or project milestones?
c. How well has the company been able to control various
c. What has been the gross, operating and net profit margins?
components of its costs? What are the objective
measures used by the company to track performance on d. What is the sensitivity of margins to interest rates and
this front? forex volatility?
d. What has been the track record of timeliness in
completing projects and delivering properties to clients? 21. What has been the company’s track record in managing
e. What has been the extent of time overruns across labour relations?
projects? What has been the financial and other a. What is the proportion of unionised workforce?
implications of the overruns?
b. What are the key market and regulatory challenges in
relation to labour affairs?
c. Have there been instances of labour unrest in the past?
How were those situations managed?
Environmental, Social and Governance
22. What are the details of the company’s ESG principles, h. How has been the company’s track record regarding the
practice and track record? safety and fair treatment of labourers involved in
its projects? What is the total number of fatalities,
personnel employed?
generation and overall environmental and ecological i. What is the proportion of total work sub-contracted
footprint during execution of projects? or outsourced?
b. How does the energy consumption, emission, water j. What is the proportion of the local population in
use and waste generation intensity of the properties the workforce?
developed by the company, during their normal k. How much is the typical spend on maintenance and
functioning, compare with industry benchmarks? What safety at the company’s offices and project sites?
are the initiatives taken to reduce these? l. What is the size and proportion of the company’s sold,
c. Has the company received, or has plans to receive, owned, managed and under development portfolio that
certifications such as the Leadership in Energy and is covered by ESG principles?
Environmental Design (LEED) rating devised by the m. Has the company faced accusations of corruption,
United States Green Building Council (USGBC)? bribery or offering inappropriate inducements to
d. What proportion of properties are equipped with smart obtain land use permissions, development permits or
metering applications to monitor consumption of energy, construction approvals?
water and other utilities? n. Has the company ever been accused of, investigated or
e. When the projects entail demolition of built structures, penalized for not obtaining prior approvals or violating
how much of the material is typically recovered? What is approved plans?
the procedure for handling recoveries and debris arising o. Does the company have a documented policy on ESG
from the demolition? and sustainability principles that govern the property
f. Where possible, are features suited to the local climate development agenda?
incorporated in projects? p. What is the company’s policy and track record relating to
g. How much recycled, eco-friendly and locally sourced political donations?

TRADITIONAL RETAIL AND ITS SUB-SECTORS

ARE YOU BEING SERVED? UNDERSTANDING THE INVESTMENT
FUNDAMENTALS OF TRADITIONAL RETAIL
In 107 AD, Emperor Trajan had an idea that would not EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS
only improve the life of Rome’s citizens but eventually
transform the way we spend our money today. What the Retail is a scale business — the bigger the operation, the
city needed, he decided, was a shopping mall. lower the cost per square foot of retail space. As noted,
operators have relatively mature operational procedures
And that’s exactly what he got. Three years later, Trajan’s given the centuries of experience on which they draw.
Market, featuring more than 150 stores and offices spread This is reflected in the depth, breadth, and accuracy
over several levels, opened to the public and, it could be of their merchandise and how it is displayed. Consider
argued, modern retailing was born. the placement of fruit and vegetables at the beginning
of your supermarket journey — its looks fresh, colorful,
Indeed, using ancient Rome as an example helps us realize and inviting. Retailers have become good at promotional
that traditional retail is probably the most fundamental of pricing strategies: $9.99 is more appealing than $10. Buy
the sector fundamentals we will study. After all, we all need one, get one free may give us a thrill, but do we really need
to shop, most of us are quite good at it, and, as you can two of the same item, especially if the additional product
see, humans have been doing it for rather a long time. just adds to the general clutter at home?
Store operators know that after a long day at work,
consumers may not be in the mood to test their hunter-
NEVER KNOWINGLY UNDERSOLD gatherer instincts any further by traipsing around a busy
Of course, the sector is wider ranging in scope than just shop; hence, the rise of value-added services, such as
megamalls. Traditional retail begins with the convenience door-to-door delivery. This point leads us to the future
stores located on the ground floor of your apartment block — this industry is not being spared from the impact of
and encompasses everything in between. So, before we technological advancement. The internet has become a
get down to the business end of this discussion, let’s take massive shopping mall that we can explore from our living
a high-level look at the sector. rooms.
Traditional retail shares many similarities with the food-

and-beverages industry — location is crucial because it
drives traffic flow and therefore revenue turnover. Emperor
I LIKED IT SO MUCH I BOUGHT THE COMPANY
Trajan knew this, and that is why he built his mall a A logical framework of analysis commences with an
slingshot away from the Colosseum. understanding of the nature of a company’s offerings.
Examine the extent of nondiscretionary demand — in other
Another crucial factor underpinning this business model
words, does the firm sell essential items, nice-to-have
is operational efficiency. How shopkeepers undertake
products, or a mix of the two? This will alert you to the
product sourcing and organize their stores, as well as a
company’s sensitivity to changes in the economic climate.
host of value-chain-related engagements, eventually add
Simultaneously, explore the elasticity of its products
up to the dollars and cents on the expenses category of
and services and determine whether a change in unit
their profit-and-loss statement.
price will affect customer demand. This may be more
Managing operational costs is definitely an important applicable to food retailing, in which numerous firms are
aspect, but it should never be achieved by compromising selling the same item. Establish which of the company’s
the shopping experience. We have all been in a store product categories are more sensitive to price changes.
where it’s impossible to find a sales assistant or where It is worth understanding whether the company is purely
the lighting is so dim we can barely read the product into third-party retailing or maintains its own labels, as
labels. This may save staff and power costs, but it doesn’t the latter tends to offer higher margins if value has been
improve our mood. established.
It makes sense to find out whether the company fully much money does the company spend to ensure that its
understands its customer base. Does it undertake packaging is recyclable and viably sourced?
segmentation to classify different spending groups? If so,
which dimensions does it use and does it have specific product
lines, brands, or strategies that target these segments?
THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT
To build a more in-depth knowledge of the company,
consider the bigger picture and look at the longer-term Following that examination, analyze the future growth
demographic, macroeconomic, and geographic factors potential of the business. This screening should occur in two
that affect its operations. Are its stores in city-center steps: First, look at the company’s principal store formats.
locations, but the population is moving elsewhere? This Are these department stores, hypermarkets, discount
occurred in the United States, with downtown districts warehouses, or convenience outlets? If it has a mix of
becoming ghost towns, while the suburbs boomed. Does formats, does the company have a strategy to manage
the company face tough competition — for example, how this? Second, probe space expansion and store openings,
easy is it for new players to emerge and compete, and are which can be a double-edged sword. It helps to have some
there any barriers to entry? knowledge of how much the firm’s plans will cost financially
and how they will affect brand appeal. A quick expansion can
go horribly wrong — doughnut seller Krispy Kreme suddenly
appeared everywhere, but its profits, unfortunately, failed to
IT DOES EXACTLY WHAT IT SAYS IT DOES maintain the pace of its growth.
It is sensible to delve into the company’s books with a
study of its operational efficiency. Lines of enquiry to
follow include a review of how it has performed organically VORSPRUNG DURCH TECHNIK
and on a like-for-like basis. Can the business provide a
detailed breakdown of its sales performance? Retailing and the internet were made for each other
— shopping pleasure combined with sofa-based
Appraise the cost structure of the firm’s products and convenience, particularly on a rainy Sunday in January. No
services. What are the key elements that drive cost and study of the sector would be complete without touching
how does it manage each aspect? Importantly, survey its on the effectiveness of a company’s online presence.
cash position and the way in which it is controlled. Moreover, if a company lacks one, what threats does it
face? Businesses that sell nonessential items are at risk,
because people won’t go out of their way to find a store
if they can source the product online. The proof of this is
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE FACTORS reflected in Amazon’s profits.
The study of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) The other side of the technology coin pertains to distribution,
factors goes hand in hand with operational efficiency. The and how quickly a retailer can get its products to market.
retail sector stands out as being more exposed to ESG Investigate how much money a company is spending (or has
risks than other areas of the market. Among the many spent) on ensuring that its operations run efficiently.
avenues of inquiry, we suggest concentrating on people
and process. Has the company implemented policies that As always, these guidelines are designed to provide a
protect workers’ rights? Many jobs in retail are low paid, short but solid foundation to kick-start any future analysis.
and firms rely heavily on cheap goods manufactured in As we end, let’s raise a glass to Emperor Trajan . . . because
the developing world. From a process perspective, how you’re worth it!
About the Authors


02
PRODUCT Variety of Private label
03
STRUCTURAL
merchandise offerings
AND MARKET INFLUENCES
SEGMENTATION
01
DEMAND
Value added
services
Customer
segmentation Location Barriers
to entry
Competitors
in the market
04 GAUGING
PERFORMANCE
Degree of Price
non-discretionary elasticity of
demand merchandise
TRADITIONAL Online vs. Promotional
RETAIL Offline sales pricing strategy
07 ESG FACTORS Infographic showing the

step-by-step process of
analyzing the traditional
retail industry
Cash and inventory Channel
management management
Operating
Conditions
Energy
use
05 MEASURING
GROWTH
EXPECTATIONS
06
Waste Sourcing of BUSINESS Product Customer Store Macroeconomic
generation sustainable OPERATIONS sourcing demographic expansion trends
materials plans
Fair treatment Fair treatment Physical Operational Scalability Implementation of Store

of employees of suppliers store layout costs technology formats


1. How elastic are the company’s products and services? 5. How easy is it for new players to enter and compete?
What are the entry barriers?
a. Does a change in unit price impact customer demand for
the company’s products?
b. Do price decreases and increases have the same 6. How has the company performed in terms of constant
elasticity? Does it vary across price levels? currency growth and organic volume growth rates?
c. Which of the company’s product categories are more
a. Does the company provide a detailed breakdown of
sensitive to price changes?
its sales performance in terms of volume and price?
d. When prices change, how does the company manage its Similarly, can it produce growth by same-store sales, net
purchases? How much of price impact is passed on to additions, inorganic growth and FX impact?
its customers?
b. What are the key qualitative factors driving these
e. What price investment strategy does the company numbers?
follow in the sector? How competitive or different is this
from other firms?
7. What is the cost structure of the company’s products
and services?
2. What is the extent of non-discretionary demand for the
company’s products and services? a. What are the key elements that drive the company’s
cost profile? How does it manage each cost aspect?
a. What is the company’s product profile?
b. What are the company’s gross, operating and net
b. What proportion of the company’s product range is margins?
categorized as enjoying non-discretionary demand?
c. How has this trend evolved over the past few years and
c. For those products where demand is discretionary, how does the company see it developing in the coming
which factors drive consumption? years?
d. How does the company forecast demand for its d. How is the company placed in terms of profitability and
products? cash position against its competitors?
e. Does the company observe seasonality in demand or
supply across the products it manages? If so, which
8. How is the company’s cash position managed?
products are these and what is the company’s strategy
when managing them? a. What is the company’s inventory and working capital
management strategy? How successful has it been
in implementing this and what have been the key
3. What are the long-term demographic, macroeconomic
challenges? How does it plan to address future
and geographic factors impacting demand?
challenges?
a. What is the average person’s age in the company’s key b. What is the company’s average debtor turnover, creditor
markets? Is this expected to change? turnover and inventory turnover days? Combining these,
b. How significant a role does consumption play in the what is the average cash-conversion cycle, in terms of
company’s key markets? Is there space for structural days?
growth in these economies? c. What is the company’s free cash flow level as a
c. How urbanized are the company’s key markets? percentage of sales? How has this trend evolved over
d. Is the company flexible enough to quickly leverage or the years?
exploit changes in customer trends? d. How do the company’s turnover and cash flow trends
compare to its competition?
4. Does the company undertake segmentation of its
customer base? If so, what dimensions does it use?
a. Under which segments does the company classify its
customer base?
b. Are there significant differences in spending behavior
across these categories? How does the company track
these?
c. Does the company have specific product lines/brands/
strategies that target the different segments?
9. Space expansion and store opening – what are the 11. Demographics and urbanization levels in the
associated expenses? company’s key markets – how is the company placed
to manage changes and challenges?
a. What is the company’s strategy for managing space
through the addition and removal of stores? a. Where are most of the company’s stores located – cities
b. How many stores have been added and how many or suburbs? Are these stores concentrated in a specific
closed in the last few years? What were the reasons for region or state?
this? b. Does the company profile its customers by age group
c. How do sales from new stores compare with sales from and position its products accordingly?
existing stores? c. Which categories and age groups offer the most
d. If new stores typically contribute more, how long does potential for future growth?
this usually last? If they contribute less, how long it d. Are the company’s capex and expansion plans aligned
takes for them to catch up with the older stores? with urbanization rates of the markets in which it
operates?
10. What are the company’s leading store formats –
department stores, hypermarkets, discount stores or 12. Does the company have a sales strategy for private
convenience stores? If it is a mix of formats, does the label and specialised products, such as organic and
company have a strategy to manage this? fresh foods?
a. What is the revenue mix from different store formats and a. What percentage of the company’s sales comes from
how is this evolving? private label and specialized products?
b. How does the company differentiate between store b. What are the company’s medium and long-term revenue
formats and tackle cannibalization among them? targets for these categories? How does it expect to
c. Do profitability and margin trends differ among store achieve these?
formats? c. What are the company’s price investment and marketing
d. Has the company identified any preference among its strategies for these products?
customers for a store format? d. What is the margin attractiveness in private label and
e. Does the company have a long-term management plan specialized products?
for its store format mix? e. Is the growth in private label products affecting the
f. What percentage of sales comes from online channels company’s relationships with its existing vendors? How
and how does the company see this evolving? does it manage these relationships?
g. Do per-unit economics differ between the online
channels and the brick-and-mortar channels? 13. What is the impact of channel churn on the retail
h. What are the company’s average delivery and sector? How is the company managing this?
technology costs for its online channels? Does it have a a. How is the company adapting its business from multi-
strategy to reduce these? channel retailing to omnichannel retailing?
i. Which store formats are most likely to be affected by a b. How does the company enable seamless connectivity
rise in online sales? Does the company have a strategy for its customers among the different channels?
to manage this change?
c. Does the ‘pick-up at store’ strategy help in reducing
j. Does the company have pick-up points or pick-at store churn rate?
options that work in tandem with its online channels?
Will these impact its costs and margins?
14. How much customer and shopping-preference data

does the company capture?
a. How does the company analyze the data it captures?
b. How does the company categorize different customers?
Does it develop individual marketing strategies for each
customer group?
c. What is the company’s definition of a ‘loyal customer’?
How does it nurture loyalty?
d. Which strategies are employed to retain loyal
customers?
e. Does the company have loyalty programs? Is so, how do
these improve sales efficiency?
f. What percentage of the company’s total sales comes
from loyal customers?
15. What are the common economies and diseconomies of

scale in the company’s business model?
a. How do economies of scale operate between different
store formats and customer categories?
b. Being a general retailer, how does the company attract
customers who are focused on specialised products?
c. What is the company’s broad marketing philosophy?
How is it tailored to different customer and product
segments?
16. How well does the company manage its costs?

a. How does the company manage currency risk for
imported products and ingredients?
b. How often does the company renegotiate its contracts
with partners and vendors?
c. How does the company manage operating costs and
wage increases, including pensions?
17. What is the impact of technology on sales, distribution

and other functions? How is the company managing
this?
a. Which technologies are deployed across the company’s
various functions?
b. How does the company measure the benefits of
technological change? What have been the outcomes?
c. How robust is technology that runs the company’s online
channel?
d. How much does the company plan to invest in
technology over the coming years?

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