Ocrif261012 SN1 PDF
Ocrif261012 SN1 PDF
Ocrif261012 SN1 PDF
Atri Mukherjee*
Following the liberalisation of the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in India
in the early 1990s, FDI to India has increased significantly in the last decade. However, the
growth in FDI flows has been accompanied by strong regional concentration thereby depriving
a large number of Indian states from the benefits of a liberalised FDI regime. In view of
this, the paper examines what are the major determinants affecting regional distribution of
FDI flows in India. The analysis reveals that market size, agglomeration effects and size of
manufacturing and services base in a state have significant positive impact on FDI flows.
The impact of taxation and cost of labour is negative. While the impact of quality of labour is
ambiguous, infrastructure, however, has significant positive influence on FDI flows. With the
presence of a strong agglomeration effect, it is essential to have a conscious and coordinated
effort at the national and the state government level to make the laggard states more attractive
to FDI flows. The efforts may include special thrust on the manufacturing, services and
the infrastructure sectors, or direct policy efforts like in the case of China or a combination
of both.
Introduction
In the era of globalisation and financial integration, foreign
direct investment (FDI) has emerged as one of the most important forms
of capital flows to developing countries. FDI is often preferred over
other forms of capital flows by the policy makers as it is considered
to be of a more stable nature and also it does not form a part of the
host country’s external debt stock. Apart from constituting a mode of
finance, FDI also tends to enhance economic growth through spill over
* Atri Mukherjee is Assistant Adviser in the Department of Economic and Policy Research. The
paper reflects personal views of the author. The author is grateful to the anonymous referees for
their valuable comments.
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Section II
Survey of Select Empirical Literature
Internationally, there is a host of literature analysing the inter-
country differences in FDI flows. Those studies have identified a
number of factors affecting the location choice of the foreign direct
investors. However, many of those determinants are country-specific
and would not apply to state/provincial level movement of FDI flows.
The literature on regional distribution of FDI flows within a country,
on the other hand, is relatively scarce. Most of the available studies
relating to FDI flows at the state/ provincial level relate to the US, the
European Union and China. There are few analytical studies on inter-
state differences in FDI flows in India.
In the context of the United States, Coughlin, Terza and Aromdee
(1989) found that the number of potential sites, state per capita income,
manufacturing density within a state, better transportation infrastructure,
higher unemployment rates and higher expenditures to attract FDI were
positively linked to FDI flows. On the other hand, higher wages and
higher tax rates had negative impact on FDI flows. Fisher and Peters
(1998) found that incentives offered by various states had a positive
impact on investment flows to the US. Incentives considered in their
study include job credits, property tax abatements, sales tax exemptions,
grants, loan guarantees, firm specific job training and infrastructure
subsidies. Within the European Union member states, the long term
trends point out the existence of a negative relationship between
taxation and FDI inflows. Santis, Mercuri and Vicarelli (2001) found
that FDI flows within the European Union member states were more
influenced by the total fiscal wedge on labour than corporate tax rates.
This suggests that multinationals, while making their location choices,
focus their attention more to the overall tax burden than on single
corporate tax rates, which provide only partial information. Apart from
tax burden, bilateral degree of trade openness and infrastructure also
play an important role to attract FDI. Wolff (2006) found that within
the European Union, the different sub-components of FDI (equity,
re-invested profits and other investments) react differently to taxes.
Contrary to the public belief that high corporate tax rates act as the key
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reasons for low investment rates from abroad, the author found that
after controlling for unobserved country characteristics and common
time effects, the top statutory corporate tax rate of both, source and host
country, turned insignificant for total FDI and investment into equity.
There were, however, definite indications that high source country taxes
increased the probability of firms to reinvest profits abroad. However,
overall experience revealed that global companies give more importance
to the simplicity and stability of a country’s tax system than generous tax
rebates. Chidlow and Young (2008) found that Polish regions differed
substantially in attracting foreign capital and the regional characteristics
mattered in the selection of location. Using survey data from an online
questionnaire and a multinomial logit model incorporating investor
specific characteristics, they showed that knowledge-seeking factors
alongside market and agglomeration factors, acted as the main drivers
of FDI to Mazowieckie region (including Warsaw), while efficiency
(low input cost, availability of labour and resources) and geographic
factors encouraged FDI to the other areas of Poland.
In the Chinese context, based on panel data covering 98 hinterland
cities of China for the years 1999 to 2005, Luo et al (2008) found that
well established factors such as natural resources and low labour costs
were not important in determining FDI flows to China’s hinterland.
Instead, policy incentives and industrial agglomerates were the most
important determining factors for FDI flows. Using panel dataset of
the areas at provincial level in China during the period of 1998-2007,
Xu et al (2008) found that agglomeration economies influenced the
location choices of FDI in China, and cumulative FDI in an area had
crucial demonstration effect on the decision making of the new FDI
entrants. The study also indicated that although labour costs continued
to remain one crucial element for location choices of FDI, however,
labour quality was playing an increasingly important role in attracting
FDI from the US and the European countries. The analysis of core-
periphery framework suggested that the two mega cities of Hong Kong
and Shanghai as the cores of agglomeration had significant influence on
location choices of FDI in China. For FDI from different sources, there
exist country specific features. This implies that previous cumulative
foreign investments led to concentration of new investments from
105 Regional Inequality in Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Overall, the theory and the empirical literature suggest that the
most important determinants of the regional distribution of FDI flows
within a country include the size and growth of the local market, the level
of industrial activity, the growth of the services sector, the availability
and quality of physical infrastructure, labour market conditions and
quality of labour, policy environment and tax incentives, business
climate and the presence of agglomeration economies.
Section III
FDI Flows to India: Some Stylised Facts
FDI flows to India have picked up significantly in the recent years.
India has emerged as the second largest recipient of FDI flows among the
emerging market economies after China in 2009 and 2010 (Table 1).
Table 1: Emerging Market External Equity Financing
(in million US dollars)
2008 2009 2010 2011
Sub-Saharan Africa 884 1,237 2,841 1,476
Central and Eastern Europe 1,105 3,836 7,502 3,733
Commonwealth of Independent States 4,087 1,258 6,998 11,164
Russia 2,850 956 5,454 10,794
Developing Asia 21,441 61,078 86,923 38,013
China 11,974 39,854 45,448 23,499
India 6,008 16,223 26,179 7,016
Indonesia 2,213 1,286 6,317 2,229
Malaysia 660 3,604 5,818 2,972
Pakistan 109 — 93 —
Philippines 125 0 960 596
Thailand 257 111 1,991 1,554
Middle East and North Africa 3,832 917 1,695 182
Latin America and the Caribbean 12,719 15,416 27,139 18,983
Argentina — — 73 3,576
Brazil 10,435 12,963 24,633 9,029
Chile — 32 1,214 2,340
Colombia — 619 296 3,598
Mexico 2,127 1,567 662 441
Total FDI Flows 44,067 83,740 1,33,098 73,552
Note: — indicates that the figure is zero or less than half of the final digit shown
Source: Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012, International Monetary Fund
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25
20
Per cent
15
10
0
Delhi
West Bengal
Andhra Pradesh
Chandigarh
Madhya Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Rajasthan
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
Kerala
Goa
Assam
Orissa
Gujarat
Bihar
between 2008-09 and 2011-12. The top two states, i.e., Maharashtra and
Delhi accounted for over 50 per cent of FDI flows during this period.
Maharashtra alone accounted for over 30 per cent of FDI flows to India
during the same period.
Despite impressive growth rates achieved by most of the Indian
states as well as aggressive investment promotion policies pursued by
various state governments, the concentration of FDI flows across a few
Indian states continues to exist.
Section IV
Selection of Variables
Market Size
The theory as well as the empirical literature revealed that the
size of the local market, generally represented by the scale and growth
of a region, acts as one of the most important determinants of location
choice of FDI as it provides an idea about the potential demand for a
foreign firm’s output. The attractiveness for large markets is related to
larger potential for local sales. Local sales are generally more profitable
than exports especially in large countries, where economies of scale
may be eventually reaped. Despite significant changes in the location
choice of MNEs in the recent period, large and growing domestic
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Policy Environment
The local policy environment is mainly characterised by
policies towards foreign direct investment, tax structure and investment
incentives provided by the local government to attract FDI. Over the
past few decades, many local governments all over the world have been
actively involved in improving the policy environment for promoting
their countries as attractive destination for foreign investors. Those
governments have adopted a host of measures viz., liberalisation of
laws and regulations for the admission and establishment of foreign
investment projects, provision of guarantees for repatriation of
investment and profits, establishing mechanism for the settlement of
investment disputes and extending tax incentives to facilitate and attract
foreign investment flows to their countries.
In India, as a part of economic reform, many of the states are
simplifying the rules and procedures for setting up and operation of the
industrial units. Single Window System is now in existence in most
of the states. In addition, most of the states provide various kinds of
incentives for attracting investment in the new industrial units as well
as the existing ones. The incentives may be sector-specific or region-
specific. While it is common among the Indian states to offer incentives
to the IT/ITeS, biotechnology, tourism and the micro, small and medium
enterprise (MSME) sectors, at times special incentives are also offered
in industries such as textile, food, fisheries, film, healthcare, electricity
generation, etc. Most of the sector-specific incentives in India take the
form of exemption from stamp duty, registration fee, electricity duty
and various types of taxes. Special Economic Zones (SEZ) also enjoy
various incentives mainly in the form of various duty exemptions.
The direct tax benefits include exemption from commercial tax, sales
tax, value added tax (VAT), entry tax, special entry tax, luxury tax,
entertainment tax, property tax, purchase tax, etc., depending on the
industry in concern. Exemption of entertainment taxes is common for
the tourism sector.
Empirical evidence in the context of European Union revealed
that multinationals, while making their location choices, focus their
attention to the overall tax burden rather than on single corporate tax
rates, which provide only partial information (Santis, Mercuri and
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Vicarelli, 2001). In view of this, in this study, the state’s own tax revenue
as per cent of NSDP has been used to assess the impact of tax structure
on FDI flows.
Agglomeration Economies
As countries begin to industrialise, there is a tendency for
industries to concentrate initially in areas where physical infrastructure
is readily available and subsequently, for related industries, to gravitate
closer together, thereby taking advantage of inherent synergies. In the
process, industry clusters are formed, with each geographical area
specialising in certain activities, leading to spatial diffusion of industries.
This clustering of firms, which is also known as the “agglomeration”
factor has emerged as an important determinant of regional distribution
of FDI flows within a country during the last two decades. The reduction
in spatial transaction cost due to liberalisation of cross-border market
and the changing characteristics of the economic activity has favoured
the spatial bunching of firms engaged in related activities, so that each
may benefit from the presence of the others, and of having access to
localised support facilities, shared service centers, distribution networks,
customised demand pattern and specialised factor inputs (Dunning
1998). Statistical results from several studies focusing on developing
economies strongly buttress the argument that foreign investors are
inclined to favor such locations that could minimise information costs
and offer a variety of agglomeration economies (He Canfei 2002). The
presence of agglomeration economies is reflected in terms of prior
foreign investment presence, prior concentration of manufacturing
plants, number of enterprise in a region, presence of various economic
zones (SEZ, EPZ etc.), industrial parks, industrial clusters, etc.
In this study, one period lagged value of per capita stock of
FDI in a state has been considered as independent variable to capture
these agglomeration effects. A positive and significant coefficient of
this variable means the presence of agglomeration economies.
Based on the above analysis, a list of explanatory variables
selected for the study is presented in Table 4.
115 Regional Inequality in Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Section V
The Methodology and Empirical Results
The empirical analysis carried out in this paper is based on state-
level panel dataset of India over the period 2000-01 to 2010-11 covering
31 states and Union territories, viz., Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andhra
Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Goa,
Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand,
Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya,
Mizoram, Nagaland, Orissa, Puducherry, Punjab, Rajasthan, Sikkim,
Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and West Bengal. The
dependent variable in this study is the per capita annual flow of FDI to
each of the 31 Indian states during the 10 years period of 2001-02 to 2010-
11. The annual state-level FDI flows data released by the Department
of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), Ministry of Commerce and
Industry, Government of India, however, has certain limitations. First,
the state-level annual FDI flows data published by DIPP are available
only from 2008-09 onwards. Second, as noted in Table 2, the data on
FDI flows to certain states are not available at the disaggregated level.
In view of this, in this study, the help of Centre for Monitoring Indian
117 Regional Inequality in Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Section VI
Policy Implications
FDI to India has increased significantly in the last decade.
However, the growth in FDI flows has been accompanied by strong
regional concentration. The findings of the study reveal that market
size, agglomeration effects and size of manufacturing and services base
in a state have significant positive impact on the regional distribution of
FDI flows in India. The impact of taxation and cost of labour is negative.
While the impact of quality of labour is ambiguous, infrastructure,
however, has a significant positive impact on FDI flows. Mining has a
positive influence on FDI flows, but lacks statistical significance.
The presence of strong agglomeration effect indicates that the
states already rich in FDI flows tend to receive more of them which
make it more difficult for the other states to attract fresh investments. In
123 Regional Inequality in Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Finally, of late, there has been a lot of debate about the merits
and demerits in liberalising FDI in retail, insurance, pension and
aviation sectors in India. With the issue of FDI still hot, it is important
for the government to take due care in formulating its FDI policies so
as to reduce the regional disparity rather than aggravating it.
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