Hindawi Publishing Corporation

Economics Research International

Volume 2014, Article ID 538074, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/538074

Research Article
Bioeconomics of Commercial Marine Fisheries of
Bay of Bengal: Status and Direction

Ahasan Habib,1 Md. Hadayet Ullah,2 and Nguyen Ngoc Duy3

1
Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Jalan Tungku Link,
Gadong 1410, Brunei Darussalam
2
WorldFish, House No. 22/B, Road No. 7, Block F, Banani, Dhaka–1213, Bangladesh
3
The Norwegian College of Fishery Science, University of Tromso, 9037 Tromso, Norway

Correspondence should be addressed to Ahasan Habib; [email protected]

Received 15 December 2013; Revised 24 February 2014; Accepted 24 February 2014; Published 3 April 2014

Academic Editor: Thanasis Stengos

Copyright © 2014 Ahasan Habib et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

The fishery of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) is assumed to be suffering from the overexploitation. This paper aims to assess the
sustainability of current level of fishing effort as well as possible changes driven by anthropogenic and climate driven factors.
Therefore, the commercial marine fishery of BOB for the period of 1985/86 to 2007/08 is analyzed by applying Gordon-Schaefer
Surplus Production Model on time series of total catch and standardized effort. Static reference points such as open-access
equilibrium, maximum economic yield, and maximum sustainable yield are established. Assumptions about potential climatic and
anthropogenic effects on r (intrinsic growth rate) and K (carrying capacity) of BOB fishery have been made under three different
reference equilibriums. The results showed that the fishery is not biologically overexploited; however, it is predicted to be passing
a critical situation, in terms of achieving reference points in the near future. But, on the other hand, economic overfishing started
several years before. Higher fishing effort, and inadequate institutional and legal framework have been the major bottlenecks for
the proper management of BOB fisheries and these may leads fishery more vulnerable against changing marine realm. Thus, the
present study calls for policy intervention to rescue the stock from the existing high fishing pressure that would lead to depletion.

1. Introduction pollution, and other anthropogenic causes were thought to

be major causes behind underperforming of global marine
Marine wild capture fisheries are crucial to the food and fisheries [4]. Recent climate change is supposed to make
livelihood security for millions of people, supplying approx- the situation more complicated for global fisheries, as it has
imately 53% of fish food among the 110 million tonnes of begun to alter ocean conditions, particularly water temper-
wild capture fisheries and aquaculture [1]. Globally, nearly 170 ature and biogeochemistry [5–7]. Climate change will likely
million people are employed in the primary fish production, affect the economics of fishing through changes in the price
secondary processing, and marketing sectors [1] and thus the and value of catches, fishing costs, fishers’ incomes, earnings
importance of fish to human food security and the burgeon- of fishing companies, discount rates, and economic rent, as
ing human population had placed marine fish populations well as throughout the global economy [5, 8].
under considerable stress [2]. At the same time, the relative In Bangladesh, the fisheries are the second largest
economic efficiency of the fishing industry has significantly employing sector involving 13 million people or about 8% of
declined in many countries due to overexploitation and the the total labor force of the country as well as the second largest
consequent reduced yield from fish stocks [3]. Therefore, export sector [9]. The country’s marine fisheries have two
there is an increasing call to conserve and manage com- subsections, artisanal and industrial fisheries [10] contribut-
mercial fishery resources by developing proper management ing to approximately 92% and 7.26% of the total marine pro-
measures, using time series data, to ensure sustainability and duction, respectively [9]. However, after the independence of
economic efficiency for certain fishery. However overfishing, Bangladesh in 1971, industrial trawl fisheries suffered from
2 Economics Research International

poor investment because of the lack of knowledge and infor-

mation on the availability of the size of different fish stocks.
Though some reports are available for describing biological, MSY Total cost
economical, and resource management issues of the fisheries OAY
of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) [10–12], a proper bioeconomic MEY

Total revenue
Total cost
analysis of the commercial trawl fisheries is scarce, except
few [3, 10], mostly dealing with shrimp fishery resources.
However, a proper understanding of bioeconomic resources
and its utilization is an urgent need to promote sustainable
development of marine fisheries resources of BOB. To control
the stock, catching and fishing effort of the fishery and to get
protection from overexploitation required strong scientific Total revenue
research in the field of fisheries biology and economics that EMEY EMSY EOAY
can be easily examined with the help of a suitable model using
Fishing effort
the empirical data of the resource. Bioeconomic modelling
has long been advocated as an important tool in managing Figure 1: The Gordon-Schaefer model.
single as well as multispecies fisheries for sustainable fisheries
management.
Hence the present study is undertaken in the BOB also produce a lower level of catch as compared to the MSY
commercial trawl fishery to assess the sustainability of marine at comparably higher cost. Therefore, MEY is considered as
fish production and to suggest appropriate policy recom- the optimal solution since it equates the marginal revenue of
mendations for improving the capture fisheries scenario of an additional unit of effort. However, the “optimal” allocation
the country. This study also puts a little effort to analyze of fishery resources can be determined by bioeconomic
the potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic modelling comparing OA, MSY, and MEY solutions and often
disturbances (e.g., pollution, habitat degradation, errors of depends on the objective of particular fisheries management.
estimation due to lack of accurate information, and other
unpredictable events) on the fish stock resources. To do so,
this paper has made some assumptions about climate change
4. Model’s Choice and Description
and anthropogenic effects on r (intrinsic growth rate) and K In bioeconomic modelling, surplus production model which
(carrying capacity) in a surplus production model. is an equilibrium model has the capability to determine the
sustainable yield from a given fishing effort (Figure 1) and
2. Theoretical Model regarded as valuable tool for its first approximation even
in time or data limiting condition [18]. These models are
Bioeconomic theory in fisheries combines the biological generally used to examine economic performance or rent
and economic aspects of a fishery to explain stock, catch, dissipation in a fishery [19] and well known in the fisheries
and effort dynamics under different regimes and provides economics literature [20–22]. Moreover, it is simple and easy
insights into the optimal management of the stock [13]. to incorporate environmental attributes in the model and
The bioeconomic model provides an integrated approach for its parameters can be estimated using catch and effort data.
evaluation of effective fishery management strategies [14–16]. The Gordon-Schaefer (GS) model, with extension (such as
habitat, environmental variables), can potentially identify
the underlying relationship between incorporated variables,
3. Reference Equilibriums stock, effort, and harvest under open access and maximum
and Management Regimes economic yield managed fisheries [23, 24].
The GS model originated from Gordon [17] and Schaefer
The overall goal of fisheries management is to provide [25]. Therefore, the GS surplus production model has been
sustainable biological, social, and economic benefits from selected for this study. The model has a big advantage of
renewable aquatic resources. For the long-term sustainability requiring limited data and could produce rough guidance on
and for enhancing the revenue of the fishery, static as well as fleet size in the case of single-species as well as multispecies
the dynamic behavior of the system should be investigated fishery.
by achieving the targeted reference points. Maximum eco- Fisheries based on highly productive biological resources
nomic yield (MEY) and maximum sustainable yield (MSY) with large r (intrinsic growth rate) and K (carrying capacity)
represent different fisheries objectives which are the basis may sustain a large fishing effort under OA [26]. In all
of identifying suitable management measures. The other populations, natural surplus growth is small for both high
reference point, namely equilibriums open access (OA), is and low stock level and the largest for some intermediate
more likely a regime rather than a performance objective level. However, the GS model is based on the logistic growth
(such as MSY and MEY). Open access represents a lack equation:
of property rights to restrict harvesters from common pool
resources. However, OA is not socially efficient (suboptimal) 𝑋
𝐹 (𝑋) = 𝑟𝑋 (1 − ), (1)
because of its higher effort [17]. Moreover, this practice can 𝐾
Economics Research International 3

where 𝐹(𝑋) is surplus biomass growth per unit of time; 𝑋 is carrying capacity [27]. Therefore, in the present model, nine
stock biomass. The equation describes a parabolic curve as a environmental scenarios have been considered, including
function of 𝑋. the present situation (Scenario 0). The scenarios were based
The harvest rate (𝐻) is assumed by the simple relation of on the current model where each scenario represents pos-
Schaefer catch function, sible climate change and anthropogenic consequences. The
authors in [28] described environmental scnerio and possible
𝐻 (𝐸, 𝑋) = 𝑞𝐸𝑋, (2) growth rates. As Bangladesh is more vulnerable to climate
change impact, therefore, we assume that the following nine
where E is fishing effort and q is a constant catchability scenarios are included:
coefficient. Sustainable yield occurs when harvest equals the
surplus growth; that is, when rate of change of biomass, (0) current situation ( i.e., r and K as now),
(1) growth rate change by 10% (i.e., r-10% and K as now),
𝑑𝑥
= 𝐹 (𝑋) − 𝐻 (𝐸, 𝑋) = 0. (3) (2) growth rate and carrying capacity both change by 10%
𝑑𝑡
(i.e., r-10% and K-10%),
This implies 𝑞𝐸𝑋 = 𝑟𝑋(1 − 𝑥/𝐾) based on (1) and (2). (3) carrying capacity change by 10% (i.e., r as now and K-
Therefore, biomass at equilibrium, 𝑋, is solved to be 10%),
𝑞𝐸 (4) growth rate change by 25% (i.e., r-25% and K as now),
𝑋 = 𝐾 (1 − ). (4)
𝑟 (5) carrying capacity by 10% and growth rate by 25% (i.e.,
K-10% and r-25%),
Inserting (4) into (2) gives the long-term catch equation
(6) carrying capacity change by 25% (i.e., r as now and
𝑞𝐸 𝑞2 𝐾𝐸2 K-25%),
𝐻 (𝐸) = 𝑞𝐾𝐸 (1 − ) = 𝑞𝐾𝐸 − . (5)
(7) growth rate change by 10% and carrying capacity by
𝑟 𝑟
25% (i.e., r-10% and K-25%),
Dividing both sides of (5) by effort (E) gives the linear
(8) growth rate and carrying capacity both change by 25%
relationship between catch per unit of effort (CPUE) and
(i.e., r-25% and K-25%).
fishing effort:

𝐻 𝑞2 𝐾𝐸 6. Data and Parameter Estimates

CPUE = = 𝑞𝐾 − . (6)
𝐸 𝑟 6.1. Fish Catch and Fishing Effort Data. Time-series data
Assuming constant price, equation (5) can be used to define (1985/86 to 2007/08) on catch and effort of the BOB commer-
total revenue (TR) in equilibrium as a function of standard- cial fishery have been gathered and compiled for the present
ized effort: study (Table 1). Data have been collected from the statistics
of Marine Fisheries Department, Chittagong (MFDCTG),
TR (𝐸) = 𝑝 ⋅ 𝐻 (𝐸) , (7) Bangladesh. The catch has been expressed in weight of
biomass in tonnes and effort has been expressed in terms
where p denotes a constant price per unit of harvest. Total cost of fishing days. The commercial catch data usually been
of fishing effort (TC) is given by collected as fiscal (i.e., 1985-1986) year by Marine Fisheries
Department. In this study, data were presented by both fiscal
TC (𝐸) = 𝑐 ⋅ 𝐸, (8) economic year (Table 1) and as the single economic year
(text).
where c denotes unit cost of effort including opportunity cost The unit price of the harvest and unit cost of fishing effort
of labor and capital. of the Bay is considered as 50000 BDT and 75000 BDT (1 USD
From equations (7) and (8), the equilibrium resource rent = 81.75 BDT), respectively, in 2007 [29]. This fish price is the
(∏) can be derived as a function of fishing effort (E) price paid in the wholesale market.
∏ (𝐸) = TR (𝐸) − TC (𝐸) . (9)
6.2. Economic and Statistical Parameters. Parameters are
estimated by regression of the catch per unit effort data on
5. Environmental Scenarios the corresponding effort data (Table 1) for the BOB Fishery.
In this study, in OA equilibrium, we have considered that
In most surplus production models, environmental factors average revenue AR = TR/𝐸 is equal to marginal cost (MC =
are found to be ignored over time. However, this is evident TC󸀠 (𝐸)). Therefore, from (7) and (8), we get
that climatic variables as well as anthropogenic factors driven
environmental variablity have a notable impact on fisheries 𝑝𝐻
stock and its growth. The increasing human activities have = 𝑐,
𝐸
become a major factor in progressive environmental degrada- (10)
𝐻 𝑐
tion on the global scale, particularly biological structures and = .
ecological processes that mean a reduction in the ecosystem’s 𝐸 𝑝
4 Economics Research International

Table 1: Total catch and effort data of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, So, CPUE could be expressed by
from Fish trawlers. (Source: Statistics of Marine Fisheries Depart-
ment, Chittagong, Bangladesh). CPUE = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝐸, (15)

Year Number of Catch Effort CPUE where CPUE = 𝐻/𝐸, 𝑎 = 𝑞𝐾, and 𝑏 = (−𝑎𝑞/𝑟).
trawlers (tonnes) (days) Since data on catch and effort are available for the BOB
1985-1986 14 5500 1783 3.085 fishery, this allow us to estimate the parameters a and b by
1986-1987 18 4769 2351 2.028 linear regression of the catch per unit of effort on effort.
1987-1988 19 4393 2331 1.885 Effort at maximum sustainable yield can be obtained from
1988-1989 8 931 617 1.509 (12) by taking the partial derivative of H with respect to E and
1989-1990 2.126
setting it equal to zero as
8 2105 990
1990-1991 12 1532 721 2.125 −𝑎
𝐸MSY = ( ). (16)
1991-1992 14 1974 1421 1.389 2𝑏
1992-1993 12 2545 1545 1.647
Hence, the output at MSY is
1993-1994 11 3305 1228 2.691
1994-1995 14 4404 1354 3.253 −𝑎2
MSY = ( ). (17)
1995-1996 12 4568 1432 3.19 4𝑏
1996-1997 14 5793 1656 3.498
1997-1998 13 7515 1856 4.049 Further on the OA point, total fishing costs equal the total
1998-1999 3.127 revenue from the fishery (TR(𝐸) = TC(𝐸)).Therefore, using
18 6680 2136
the Gordon-Schaefer model, the effort at OA yield can be
1999-2000 21 8017 2517 3.185
obtained by equating
2000-2001 31 16027 3871 4.14
2001-2002 36 16586 4841 3.426 MC = AR (18)
2002-2003 42 19428 5414 3.588
or
2003-2004 49 23207 6284 3.693
2004-2005 68 25895 8535 3.034 𝑝𝐻 (𝐸)
𝑐= ,
2005-2006 78 27096 11469 2.363 𝐸
2006-2007 2.569
(19)
88 29446 11462 𝑐/𝑝 − 𝑎
2007-2008 95 29176 13368 2.183 𝑐𝐸 = 𝑝𝐻 (𝐸) ≡ 𝐸OAY =( ).
𝑏
The maximum economic return is realized at a lower total
By using the unit cost of harvest and the resource rent per fishing effort for positive economic rent that is only obtained
unit harvest, we can find the open-access equilibrium level of at efforts lower than 𝐸OA . Maximum economic yield (MEY)
the fish stock. The unit cost of harvest follows by use of (2) is attained at the profit maximizing level of effort which is
and (8). obtained using (9) ∏󸀠 (𝐸) = 0 or 𝑑TR(𝐸)/𝑑𝐸 = 𝑑TC(𝐸)/𝑑𝐸.
Therefore, the effort at MEY is
TC (𝐸) 𝑐𝐸 𝑐
𝐶 (𝑋) = = = . (11) 𝑐/𝑝 − 𝑎
𝐻 𝑞𝐸𝑋 𝑞𝑋 𝐸MEY = ( ). (20)
2𝑏
This demonstrates that the unit cost of harvest decreases with
an increase in the stock size. Different parameter values and statistical tests of a linear
With the constant price of fish, the resource rent per unit regression on the basis catch and effort data (Table 1), consid-
harvest is ering (13), have also been analyzed (Table 2). The regression
analysis reveals that about 60% of the CPUE variation is
𝑐 explained by the linear model.
𝑏 (𝑋) = 𝑝 − . (12)
𝑞𝑋 The results of regression analysis (Table 2) were obtained
from time series catch and effort data of the BOB fishery for
At the open-access equilibrium, the stock level 𝑋∞ follows the years of 1996 to 2007. It is noteworthy that data collected
from 𝑏 (𝑋∞ = 0), and open access stock biomass, since 1996 is being considered more reliable compared with
earlier years, which included a more homogenous fleet as well
𝑐
𝑋∞ = . (13) as a more homogenous catch composition. The four major
𝑝𝑞 concerns, motivated to use the shorter time series are as
follows; (1) change in accuracy of statistics; catch composi-
The long-term harvest function can be expressed by tion has been changed (i.e., more predators early years), (2)
corresponding increase in catch while including more prey
𝐻 (𝐸) = 𝑎𝐸 + 𝑏𝐸2 . (14) species; (3) changes in size composition (i.e., decreasing mesh
Economics Research International 5

Table 2: Regression analysis of catch on the corresponding effort data (1996–2007) including intercept.

Parameters Coefficients Standard error t Stat 𝑃 value

𝑎 3.974 0.208 19.107 0.000
𝑏 −0.0001203 0.0000285 −4.22 0.0018
Adjusted 𝑅 square 0.604.

rent is the difference between total revenue and total cost.

30
Therefore, total cost and total revenue were calculated using
Yield in thousand tonnes

25 (7) and (8). In order to come up with estimation in changes

at various levels of r and K, variationwas assumed to range
20
between 10% and 25%. A change in K and r mayalso imply
15 changes in harvest, corresponding effort and economic levels
(Table 3). As indicated in Table 3, MSY was at 32,895 tonnes
10
valued at BDT 406 million and produced at effort value of
5 16,517 standard units. When these estimated values were com-
0
pared with the recorded catch and effort values (Table 1), it
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 has been found that the current catch level nearly approaches
Number of fishing days to MSY value that is obtained from this empirical model. In
contrast, the MEY was at 28,143 tonnes valued at BDT 636
Figure 2: Gordon-Schaefer harvest curve for the fishery of 1996 to million and obtained as effort value of 10,282 standard units.
2007 based on (14) and catch data from Table 1. Comparing these with the actual catch and effort figures,
MEY was attained very recently between 2006 and 2007. The
OAY was at 30,854 tonnes and produced at an effort level of
size or similar); and (4) change in operational pattern (i.e., 20,558 standard units which is very close to the catch data
approaching other areas, longer days). All of these factors are of 2007-2008 considered for the current study. In addition to
regarded to take a significant shift around 1996, though no the present situation, eight possible scenarios were presented
such changes have been observed over long periods of time. in response to potential climate change and anthropogenic
From the estimated coefficients for a and b, we can get induced variability in the biological parameters of K and are
values of K and r, respectively, as follows: (Table 3).
The parameter value has been changed under each regime
𝑎
𝐾= , (21) with individual climatic and anthropogenic consequences.
𝑞 All scenarios have been compared with changing conditions
−𝑎𝑞 to quantify the possible impact on the fisheries resources.
𝑟= . (22) In addition, confidence interval (95% level) has showed
𝑏
(Table 3) climate change impacts on stock and effort level at
7. Results OA, MEY, and MSY. Lower and upper vlue has presented.
Only current scnerio has shown for this change.
Intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity were calcu-
lated based on the estimated coefficients, which were derived
7.1. Scenario 0 (Present Situation). This present situation
from (Table 2) the model. The GS model has predicted that
based on the estimated K and r valued from available
the values of K and r had been 40660 tonnes and 3.228 by
historical catch data reveals that the multispecies fisheries of
(21) and (22), respectively, and catchability coefficient (𝑞 =
BOB are in a transition period. Since both MSY and MEY
9.77332 ∗ 10−5 in 2003) has been taken from [10]. The harvest
were found to occur within very short and recent times, a
function for the BOB fishery is based on (14) and values of
more integrative approach is needed for intense observation
parameters estimated from Table 2. Thus, a yield-effort curve
on the yields of the upcoming years. However, the profit level
(Figure 2) was found to be
was found to be BDT 636 million at MEY level and BDT 406
𝐻 (𝐸) = 3.974𝐸 + (−0.0001203𝐸2 ) . (23) million at MSY level.

Calculation of reference points is the key step towards 7.2. Scenario 1 . In the case of this scenario, the average change
approaching the bioeconomic analysis; hence, MSY, MEY, or difference was about 10% of harvest levels and nearly 11%
OA, corresponding effort levels, and economic rent were cal- in profit level, compared to the present situation (Scenario 0).
culated in response to changes in the biological parameters.
The values of effort at MSY and MEY were calculated using Consequences. This may result in a change of BDT 63 and BDT
(16) and (20) while harvests at MSY, MEY, and OA were cal- 44 million at MEY and MSY level, respectively, compared to
culated using this fishery’s harvest equation (14). Economic the present scenario.
6 Economics Research International

Table 3: Harvest, corresponding effort, and profit at OA, MEY, and MSY level in response to changes in the biological parameters K and r
with potential changing climatic and anthropogenic scenarios with confident intervals for current scenario.

𝑟 = 3.228—25% 𝑟 = 3.228—10% 𝑟 = 3.228

𝐾 = 40660—25%
Scenario 8 Scenario 7 Scenario 6
𝐸OA = 12304 𝐸OA = 14765 𝐸OA = 16404
𝐸MEY = 6152 𝐸MEY = 7382 𝐸MEY = 8202
𝐸MSY = 12385 𝐸MSY = 14862 𝐸MSY = 16511
𝐻OA = 18454 𝐻OA = 22145 𝐻OA = 24606
𝐻MEY = 13781 𝐻MEY = 16537 𝐻MEY = 18375
𝐻MSY = 18568.42 𝐻MSY = 22150 𝐻MSY = 24607
∏MEY = 227 ∗ 106 ∏MEY = 273 ∗ 106 ∏MEY = 304 ∗ 106
∏MSY = −6 ∗ 106 ∏MSY = −7 ∗ 106 ∏MSY = −8 ∗ 106
𝐾 = 40660—10% Scenario 5 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
𝐸OA = 14382 𝐸OA = 17258 𝐸OA = 19173
𝐸MEY = 7191 𝐸MEY = 8629 𝐸MEY = 9587
𝐸MSY = 12385 𝐸MSY = 14863 𝐸MSY = 16511
𝐻OA = 21570 𝐻OA = 25884 𝐻OA = 28760
𝐻MEY = 18251 𝐻MEY = 21901 𝐻MEY = 24335
𝐻MSY = 22146 𝐻MSY = 26575 𝐻MSY = 29528
∏MEY = 373 ∗ 106 ∏MEY = 448 ∗ 106 ∏MEY = 498 ∗ 106
∏MSY = 178 ∗ 106 ∏MSY = 214 ∗ 106 ∏MSY = 238 ∗ 106
𝐾 = 40660 Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenarioa 0
𝐸OA = 15421 𝐸OA = 18505 𝐸OA = 20558, [11350, 29779]
𝐸MEY = 7710 𝐸MEY = 9252 𝐸MEY = 10282, [5675, 14889]
𝐸MSY = 12385 𝐸MSY = 14862 𝐸MSY = 16517, [9374, 23659]
𝐻OA = 23128 𝐻OA = 27754 𝐻OA = 30854, [8053, 53642]
𝐻MEY = 21101 𝐻MEY = 25321 𝐻MEY = 28143, [21558, 34728]
𝐻MSY = 24607 𝐻MSY = 29528 𝐻MSY = 32895, [17670, 47968]
∏MEY = 476 ∗ 106 ∏MEY = 572 ∗ 106 ∏MEY = 636 ∗ 106
∏MSY = 301 ∗ 106 ∏MSY = 361 ∗ 106 ∏MSY = 406 ∗ 106
a
Confident intervals are shown in square brackets.

7.3. Scenario 2. The differences of harvest level were 4970, 25% of the harvest level of OA, MEY, and MSY level from
6242, and 6320 tonnes at OA, MEY, and MSY level, respec- scenario 0.
tively, compared to the current situation. The average change
in harvest level was 20% compared to the current situation. Consequences. The profit impact is roughly 25% on MSY level
compared to the reference situation.
Consequences. Since both carrying capacity and growth rate
change negatively, the MEY and corresponding profit are
found to be lower which is expected. The profit level is 7.6. Scenario 5. About 35% lower harvest was accounted
decreased by about 30% as MEY level compared to the present for MEY under this scenario compared to present situation
situation. whereas nearly 30% and roughly 32% change of OA and MSY
level have been found to be occurring, respectively.
7.4. Scenario 3. Compared to Scenario 0, the differences of Consequences. The profit level was approximately 56% lower
economic level were found to be BDT 138 million and BDT from the present situation.
168 million at MEY and MSY level, respectively. Furthermore,
harvest level was changed approximately 10% compared to
present conditions. 7.7. Scenario 6. The difference of harvest level has been
Consequences. Under this scenario, about 41 % of change has found to be 6248, 9768, and 8288 tonnes at OA, MEY, and
been shown at the MSY level which will not certainly be a MSY level, respectively, compared to the present scenario.
good sign of the country’s economy. In contrast, effort level has been changed only 10% from the
same situation.
7.5. Scenario 4. The results of the model based on this Consequences. However, profit level has been impacted at 10%
scenario differ about 20% of effort level (at OA) and average on MEY level compared to the current situation.
Economics Research International 7

7.8. Scenario 7. The comparative higher difference of harvest effort level of the last few years, the sustainable harvest curve
and profit level has been shown in this scenario from the and catch level are expected to be coming down.
reference scenario. To establish the ecological sustainability of current fish
harvesting practices, the estimated MSY and the correspond-
Consequences. The difference of profit level has been BDT 363 ing effort levels were compared with the actual catch and
million at MEY level compared to the current situation. effort figures. MSY for the GS model of the BOB fishery
was found to be occurring very recently. It is noteworthy
7.9. Scenario 8. This is the last scenario and the highest that during the same time, effort almost became doubled
change or difference has been observed among all the from 2003 to 2007. It has been assumed that there is little
scenarios which are very much expected due to the significant difference between the situation in the later years and that of
changes in carrying capacity and growth rate of the fishery. OA. However, from an economic point of view, MSY does not
The difference of harvest level has been found to be 12,400, imply efficient harvesting, relating efficiency to maximizing
14,362, and 14,440 tonnes at OA, MEY, and MSY level, the net benefit from the use of economic resources, that
respectively, compared to the current situation. is maximizing the resource rent [32]. Therefore, for the
BOB fisheries management, MEY is considered as a proper
Consequences. This sort of dramatic change in growth and reference point. Furthermore, by-catches of BOB fishery have
carrying capacity has an impact on profit by 64% at MEY level never been reported to be discarded by fishers. Based on
compared to the present situation. the aforementioned indicators, it is evident that there was
biological overfishing but not severe for the fishery resources.
8. Discussion A fishery cannot be sustainable if total catch exceeds the
MSY level. However, the fact is that the MEY solution is best
Managing multispecies fisheries are a challenging task; there- characterized as one that considers the economic efficiency
fore, continuous effort has been made over the years to associated with the sustainable yield curve, and there are a
develop new models to manage complex fisheries system. number of salient benefits of pursuing such a goal—or at least
To examine biological and economic over fishing of fish evaluating it for any given fishery. Given this context, present
stocks, detailed scientific data on stock levels, regeneration, model result showed that BOB fishery is passing a very critical
and catch are prerequisite. However, less costly methods such time, as both MSY and MEY have been achieved recently
as observing certain indicators like catch per unit of effort, and within very short time (2003–2008). Most importantly,
changes of price, changes in market supplies, and a percentage among the reference points, consideration of MEY as a key
composition change of species or size over time can also be reference point is very important due to the four major facts
good references to address overfishing in data poor system which are as follows: this approach is responsive to changes in
[30]. Thus, traditionally CPUE had been used as an index of economic conditions, its implication is efficient, it minimizes
stock abundance assessments [31]. CPUE for fish showed an harvesting costs, and lastly MEY might be considered to
increasing trend immediately after the 1990s and started to be preferable to the MSY as a management goal is that
decline from the late 2000s which is believed to be continued. the MSY solution compromises the ability of a commercial
The initial CPUE increase is most probably due to the increase fishery to remain viable [13]. The analysis on actual catch
of modernized fishing fleets in the coastal and marine water and effort figures reveals that the BOB fishery sustained
of BOB. The BOB fishery is assumed to be characterized by economic overfishing from 2005 onwards. As a result, even
smaller pelagic and smaller demersal fishery in the recent higher levels of effort in the later years did not get adequate
decades [11]. This could be an indication of “fishing down quantities of catch. This is obviously alarming and demands
the food web” and a corresponding low CPUE. Therefore, immediate attention of policy makers and administrations.
effort pressure that is exerted on small fish, which does not Therefore, further increase in fishing effort will certainly pose
contribute a lot in terms of total weight in yield, consequently a negative impact on the fish stock and none of the reference
takes part in lower CPUE. points (MSY and MEY) will be in equilibrium condition.
The regression results showed that the GS model aims In this study, [11] also commented that twice increase of
to explain most of the variation found in the empirical current fishing effort will severely impact the fisheries of BOB,
data. The results also indicated that fisheries of the BOB declining major targeted commercial pelagic and demersal
are characterized by increasing fishing effort and decreasing fish groups. Furthermore, a recent study showed that most of
CPUE. Several studies also predicted that BOB fishery could the commercial fish groups of BOB had a trophic efficiency
be unsustainable with continuous increasing of fishing effort (𝐸𝐸) > 0.90 indicating that the consumers are heavily
in the absence of proper regulation and lack of implementa- exploited by the system [11]. That is why immediate attention
tion of current initiatives [11]. This is also clearly supported needs to be taken to reevaluate the current management
by the yield-effort curve obtained from the current model measures for the sustainable management of BOB fishery.
results. Present condition of high effort, less harvest, and less Sensitivity of fisheries against possible climatic change
biomass stock also indicated that the danger of depletion and anthropogenic disturbances has been considered in
of the resource cannot be ruled out [10]. Fish prices have respect to carrying capacity, growth rate, and economic
been rising with the declining market supplies relative to the performance fewer than nine different regimes. A notable
increase in population number, and this may suggest that the percentage of change in harvest level (OA, MEY, and MSY),
stock is becoming scarce. Based on the analysis of catch and corresponding effort, and profit level had been shown in
8 Economics Research International

Scenarios 4, 5, 7, and 8. These four scenarios showed a 9. Conclusion and Recommendation

difference between profit levels of BDT 159 million (25%),
BDT 262 million (41%), BDT 363 (57%) million, and BDT The commercial fishery of the BOB may easily lead to over-
408 (64%) million at MEY level compared to the cur- exploitation, mainly attributed to the higher corresponding
rent situation. These situations are not expected to occur effort, in the absence of proper conservation, management,
in case of BOB fishery. However, current anthropogenic and policy measures. This study also indicated that effort level
disturbances, changing climatic pattern, and existing man- may increase in the near future. It is obvious that, for MSY,
agement measures of BOB fishery can easily lead to a resource rent cannot be maximized without significant effort
situation which is predicted under Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4. reduction. Since, in the recent years, the fishery of BOB has
However, in that possible climate change consequence, the achieved both MSY and MEY, a closer inspection is needed
fishery manager should put enough effort to keep maintain to ensure the sustainability of this resource exploitation.
existing MEY which in turn will help to sustain BOB Any inexpedient changes in fisheries sector, that is, the
fishery. effort (e.g., trawler, fishing events, and new technology) and
Climate change may directly affect fishery production management regulation, might lead the fishery into such a
through changes in reproduction, growth, recruitment, and critical condition that could be very difficult to deal with,
migration patterns which are all affected by temperature, especially given the poor management systems and resources
rainfall, and hydrology [28, 33]. According to [34] growth, of Bangladesh. The continuous increase of effort level can
mortality and recruitment parameters are extremely depen- occur due to the increasing population level at the coast, high
dent on environmental conditions, even between small dis- unemployment rate, demand of fish, and fishery products for
tances. Therefore, an assessment and projections about the the country. It is assumed that a reduction in fishing effort
future fishery cannot be made without due consideration of to attain MSY, OA, or MEY will raise the productivity of the
the climatic influences. In addition, the output of the surplus marine fisheries. However, it will also result in the unemploy-
production models reveals that climate driven changes in ment of fishermen who will ease out fisheries. This could be
the productivity of the fishery can significantly influence the a major problem in countries like Bangladesh, where coastal
economy of fisheries. An assessment report of the World fishing community relies heavily on marine fisheries, or when
Fish Centre identified four tropical Asian countries such as there are no alternative employment opportunities outside
Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen as the most the fishing sector. However, withdrawing fishing would mean
vulnerable depending on the vulnerability of national eco- reduction in cost as well as increase in the resource rent,
nomics to the impacts of climate change on fisheries [35]. which could be used to compensate the unemployed fishing
The database on climatic variables of tropical BOB is very people. Additionally, individual transferable quotas (ITQs)
poor. However, average tropical sea surface temperature is that have the potential to reduce excess competition and
predicted to increase by 50–80% of the average atmospheric investment common in limited entry and open-access fish-
change over the same period [36]. This may change the eries [40] and individual quotas of habitat impact units (HIU)
average ocean pH and consequently can cause significant to mitigate possible habitat damage arising from some forms
damage to the juvenile and adults [37] and leads a shift in fish- of harvesting, such as bottom trawling [23], could be two
stock distribution [2]. The situation might be the same or even good alternatives for BOB fishery management. Besides this,
worse for tropical BOB as the bay more often suffered from a campaign, an awareness program, and education related
the multiple anthropogenic disturbances and natural disaster. to sustainable fishing could be arranged for commercial
Finally, the confidence intervals have showed how changes in trawler owners. A reduction of cost, effort, introduction and
the effort levels and yields were impacted by climate change. expansion of mariculture, sufficient and alternative employ-
In current scenario, 44% of effort level could increase during ment opportunity, technical and logistic support, and well-
confidence interval changes at OA, MEY, and MSY levels. The monitored market may help compensating the climate and
confidence intervals have demonstrated that harvest might anthropogenic driven economic loss in the fishery. Finally,
increase by 73%, 23%, and 45% at OA, MEY, and MSY levels, proper implementation of rules and regulation on different
respectively. technical issues of fishing should be strongly implemented
Moreover, fishing zones and fish production in the coastal and monitored.
area of Bangladesh are declining gradually over the years and
those attributed to the sea level rise, pollution, increase of
salinity in the coastal belt, frequent cyclone, and changes in
pH and oceanic current pattern [38]. Freshwater discharge
Abbreviations
has found to be a significant factor in the recruitment of BOB: Bay of Bengal
juveniles and distribution of marine and estuarine species r: Intrinsic growth rate
in the Bakkhali river estuary of Bangladesh [39]. Since K: Carrying capacity
a number of rivers have found their final way to BOB, OA: Equilibriums open access
it is assumed that these river estuaries could play signif- MEY: Maximum economic yield
icant role in recruitment of valuable commercial marine MSY: Maximum sustainable yield
species. Consequently, under changing environmental con- CPUE: Catch per unit effort
ditions, the natural recruitment process may face severe MFDCTG: Marine Fisheries Department, Chittagong
problems. BDT: Bangladeshi Taka.
Economics Research International 9

Conflict of Interests [15] C. W. Armstrong and U. R. Sumaila, “Cannibalism and the opti-
mal sharing of the North-East Atlantic cod stock: a bioeconomic
Authors declare that they have no competing interests. model,” Journal of Bioeconomics, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 99–115, 2000.
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