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Environmental Concerns and International Migration
Author(s): Graeme Hugo

Source: The International Migration Review, Vol. 30, No. 1, Special Issue: Ethics, Migration,
and Global Stewardship (Spring, 1996), pp. 105-131
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Environmental Concerns and
International Migration
Graeme Hugo
University of Adelaide
This article focuses on international migration occurring as a result of

environmental changes and processes. It briefly reviews attempts to con?
ceptualize environment-related migration and then considers the extent
to which environmental factors have been and may be significant in
initiating migration. Following is an examination of migration as an
independent variable in the migration-environment relationship. Finally,
ethical and policy dimensions are addressed.
Migration on a permanent or temporary basis has always been one of the most
important survival strategies adopted by people in the face of natural or human-
caused disasters. However, our knowledge of the complex two-way relationship
involving environmental change as both a cause and consequence of migration
remains limited. Moreover, how migration and environmental concerns interact
and impinge upon economic development, social change, and conflict is little
understood. In a context where global environmental stress and degradation have
accelerated and unprecedented numbers of the world's population are seeing
migration as an option, the need for research in this area is considerable. In recent
years there has been an increase in the attention directed at the relationship
between migration and the environment among both researchers and policymak?
ers, especially in the lead up to, and aftermath of, the United Nations Conference
on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janiero in 1992
(e.g., Kibreab, 1994; Suhrke, 1992, 1994; Richmond, 1993; United Nations,
1994; The Population Institute, 1993; IOM, 1992). Chapter 5 of Agenda 21,
which was adopted by UNCED, recognized the need to develop and disseminate
knowledge of the links between changes in demographic processes like migration
and achievement of sustainable development (United Nations, 1993).
Historically, the vast bulk of migration caused by environmental change has
occurred within national boundaries, as have the environmental effects initiated
by population movements. Nevertheless, the international dimensions of this
relationship have been neglected until recendy. Moreover, it is argued here that
this dimension is of increasing scale and significance in concert with the acceler?
ating pace of globalization processes. Accordingly, the present paper focuses upon
international migration occurring as a result of environmental changes and
processes and the implications of increasing levels of population movement
between countries for the environment. We begin with a brief review of some
attempts to conceptualize environment-related migration and then consider the
extent to which environmental factors have been, and are likely to be, significant
IMR Vol. xxx, No. 1 105
106 International Migration Review
in initiating international migration. This is at

tion of the environment as both a direct and a
such migration, especially South-North intern
then focused on migration as an independent v
ronment relationship, and the environment
population movements are discussed. Finally
dimensions of emerging international migr
processes are addressed.
CONCEPTUALIZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN

MIGRATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
The migration literature is replete with typologies which differentiate m

and migrations according to the relative permanency of the move, the
traversed, the nature of the boundaries crossed, the causes of the move
characteristics of the movers, etc. One of the pervasive distinction
between types of population movements is that between voluntary and
migrations which dates back 60 years to Fairchild's (1925) migration cla
cation. Perhaps the most frequendy quoted typology of migration i
Peterson (1958), in which one of the most fundamental divisions emplo
the degree to which a move is ^forced." However, the distinction b
voluntary and involuntary migration is not as clear cut as it would app
first glance. As Speare (1974:89) points out,
In the strictest sense migration can be considered to be involuntary only when a pers
is physically transported from a country and has no opportunity to escape from th
transporting him. Movement under threat, even the immediate threat to life, cont
a voluntary element, as long as there is an option to escape to another part of
country, go into hiding or to remain and hope to avoid persecution.
On the other hand some scholars of migration argue that much

population mobility which is conventionally seen as being voluntary occ
situations which in fact the migrants have litde or no choice. Amin (19
for example, in his discussion of migration in Western Africa states th
A comparative costs and benefits analysis, conducted at the individual level of
migrant, has no significance. In fact it only gives the appearance of objective rational
to a 'choice' (that of the migrant) which in reality does not exist because, in a giv
system, he (sic) has no alternatives.
Indeed the early typology developed by Peterson recognized this degr

overlap between voluntary and involuntary movement and distingu
intermediate category. He differentiated between ". . . impelled m
when the migrants retain some power to decide whether or not to l
forced migration when they do not have this power" (Peterson, 19
These, in turn, are separated from free migration in which the wi
migrants is the decisive element initiating movement.
Environmental Concerns and International Migration 107
Population mobility is probably best viewed as being arr

continuum ranging from totally voluntary migration, in whic
will of the migrants is the overwhelmingly decisive element enc
to move, to totally forced migration, where the migrants are
if they remain in their present place of residence {see Figure 1).
fact rarely occur, and most mobility is located along the continu
paper is concerned with moves toward the forced end of this c
There is also some diversity in the literature with respect to wha
of involuntary migration can be identified. Much of this centers
of defining the term refugee. While the term refugee migration
used as a synonym for involuntary migration, others apply it
restricted subset of all such movements. The 1967 United Natio
Refugees considers a refugee as "every person who, owing to a w
of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, m
particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country
and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself
of that country" (Keely, 1981:6). However, this has been modif
in practice by both the United Nations High Commission
(UNHCR) and individual Third World countries and regions.
after an exhaustive discussion of contemporary refugee determ
World countries concludes that the common elements can be lis
1) Cases of well-founded fear of being persecuted for any o
reasons mentioned in the Geneva Convention and/or the
Statute for the Office of UNHCR.
2) Cases where lives, safety and freedom are threatened by
seriously disturbing public orders like external aggressio
occupation, foreign domination, massive violations of
rights or generalized violence in the whole or part of th
country of origin.
This definition, however, still only recognizes migrants who are
because of political pressures or conflicts. Other commentators
wider definitions of refugee and forced migrations. A good exa
definition is that provided by Olson (1979:130).
Refugees differ from other, spontaneous or sponsored migrants, la

circumstances of their movement out of one area to another, and the ef
have on them in the settlement and adjustment phases of their relocati
are forced to leave their homes because of a change in their environment
it impossible to continue life as they have known it. They are coerced b
force to leave their homes and go elsewhere.
This definition stresses the involuntary, forced nature of

uprooting' suddenness of most refugee moves and the external
of the force or forces impelling the move. It also implies a sub
of powerlessness among the movers in the decision to move
FIGURE 1. A Simple Continuum of Internati
llillliilii
destination. There is no consideration in this definition of the distance the

refugees move or whether or not they cross an international boundary, although
Olson points out "these spatial factors do affect refugees' adjustment after
flight." This definition is clearly more holistic and sees refugee moves as a subset
of all population mobility rather than of international migration.
Olson's definition is also broader than that of the UNHCR with respect to
the nature of the external force or forces, the threat or presence of which impels
refugee movements. Again the UNHCR definition is somewhat restrictive in
that it refers only to persecution, or fear of persecution, as initiating refugee
movement. Keely (1981:6) points out that this excludes people fleeing the
ravages of war, and who are usually considered refugees, although the broader
definitions in wider use usually include such groups. More commonly, persons
who are displaced by civil conflict or war are also categorized as refugees. Some
writers, however, have extended the recognition of forces which create refugee
movements even further and go beyond the conflicts created by human agents
to include people displaced from their home areas by natural disasters. Olson
(1979:130), for example, identifies the following five types of external com?
pulsions that alone or in concert create refugees:
? physical dangers (e.g., floods, volcanic eruptions, etc.);
? economic insufficiency (e.g., drought, famine);
? religious persecution;
? ethnic persecution;
? ideological persecution.
More recendy the term environmental refugee has gained wide usage
(Hinnawi, 1985; Jacobsen, 1988) to refer to people who have been forced to
leave their home area because of environmental disruption. Such refugees,
however, are not officially recognized by national governments or international
agencies, and hence the term environmental migrants would seem preferable.
This includes migrants who are forced to flee their home areas by the onset of
(or fear of) a natural calamity or disaster, would incorporate the first two
categories of Olson's classification of external compulsions to migration listed
above, and covers not only the migrations initiated by the sudden and violent
onset of floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc., but also the "silent
violence" (Spitz, 1978) of drought, famine and the onset of severe food
shortage associated with the gradual degradation of environments.
Refugees, as conventionally defined, are distinguished from environmental
migrants by the fact that the overt force impelling migration is conflict or the
threat of conflict (Zolberg and Suhrke, 1984:2) - it has hu

environmental origins. It must be stressed, however, that we a
to the immediate cause which triggers the forced migration, n
deeper underlying long-term determinants. For example, man
ters have their root causes in long- term political, social, econ
tural practices or policies. Nevertheless, in both types of f
external pressures are paramount in initiating moves - wi
introduction of particular external forces the move would no
As Kunz (1973:130) points out,
It is the reluctance to uproot oneself, and the absence of positive origin
to settle elsewhere, which characterizes all refugee decisions and dis
refugee from the voluntary migrants.
In fact, Kunz goes on to recognize two distinct "kinetic"

movement in which the chief distinction is the strength of t
impinging upon the potential refugee: 1) anticipatory ref
involve people moving before the deterioration of the mil
situation becomes overwhelming, preventing an orderly depar
refugee movements, where the emphasis is on unplanned flig
bursts of individual or group escapes in which the overwhelm
reach a haven of safety. This differentiation is equally applica
mental migrants, and Richmond (1993) has divided environ
migration into "proactive" and "reactive" movement on simila
Some have argued that it is best not to refer to migrants for
environmental reasons as refugees, given the specific legal co
term refugee {e.g., Hugo and Chan, 1990). Neverthele
(1993:2) correcdy points out, "the reality of external and i
induced mainly, or partly, by environmental factors canno
major difference between migration induced by political and
that caused by environmental factors is that it is rare that the
entire nation, so environmentally displaced persons can us
within their national boundaries. On the other hand, people f
tion often are forced to flee from the entire jurisdiction of
ments. Another significant difference is that while political
is often an uncomplicated response to fear of persecution
migration is often the result of a complex set of multiple pres
environmental event is only the proximate cause.
Richmond (1993:11) argues persuasively that it is necessa
more descriptive typologies of environmentally induced m
understand the dynamic interaction of the multiple causal
generate such movement. Whether or not environmentally in
occurs, the scale and composition of the movement and wh
will be shaped by many elements: predisposing conditions suc
of the biophysical environment; structura

precipitating events; and feedback effects o
Richmond's model, a simplified version of
recognizes first of all that certain contexts ar
disruptions likely to force outmigration than
include: ecologically fragile ecosystems whic
ping, forest removal or other human use im
at high risk of natural disaster - earthquake
inundation, etc.; marginal agricultural or
drought; and areas of poverty where the re
reserves to prevent, ameliorate, or cope with
Hence the predisposing factors for envir
ronmental but also are related to population
the way in which the environment is being
of the occupants of the area. In general, the
likely to occur in less developed than in mo
Environmentally induced migration is like
lar environment-related event which effect
is a list of factors identified by Richmond (
reactive migration which has direct or indir
stresses that these factors are not independ
an event-producing disruption to the envi
tion, however, is partly influenced by the p
earlier. It also will be shaped by a range o
migration which exist in the area affected.
of escape routes not only in the form of tr
and social networks which mean that some e
to an area where they have relatives and fri
presence of such networks undoubtedly acts
while their absence would constrain moveme
Richmond (1993) stresses the importance o
tion of environmentally induced migratio
positive effects on the origin area through
on the local environment and hence reduce
of an environmental disaster. Similarly, env
a result of those disasters may influence
erosion of uplands causing flooding and silta
policy of sedentarization whereby people
and burn, shifting cultivation in the up
sedentary agricultural communities in lowla
million people (Hugo, 1988).
Conceptualizing environmentally induced
migrations draws attention to the negle
FIGURE 2. A Simple Model of Environmentally Induced Migration
Predisposing
Conditions
Precipitating Policy
Event Response
Feedback
Effects
Facilitators and
Constraints to
Migration
Migration
Source: Modified and simplified from ideas in Richmond (1993).
researchers and policymakers alike. Jacobsen (1988:6, 1989:30) summarizes

the situation thus:
Most governments do not recognize environmental decline as a legitimate cause of

refugee movements, choosing to ignore the issue. Neither the U.S. State Department
nor the UN High Commissioner for Refugees for example collects data on this
problem. Yet the number of environmental refugees - estimated by the author to be
at least 10 million - rivals that of officially recognized refugees and is sure to overtake
this latter group in the decades to come.
While the last point may well be overstated, the thrust of these strong remarks
must be accepted - researchers and policymakers have neglected the signifi-
TABLE 1
Typology of Environmentally Related Disasters
Naturally Induced Disasters (NIDs)

Hurricanes Tornadoes Whirlwinds
Earthquakes Volcanic Eruptions Avalanches
Floods (freshwater) Floods (saltwater) Hail and Snow Storms

Fires Electric Storms Lightning
Droughts Famines Plagues
Technologically Induced Disasters (TIDs)

Chemical Nuclear Oil Spills
Pollution (air) Pollution (water) Pollution (soil)
Explosions Building Collapse Rail or Airplane Crash
Dams (floods, etc.) Mining Accidents Power Cuts
Factory Accidents Soil Exhaustion Urban Dereliction
Economically Induced Disasters (EIDs)

Deforestation Crop Failure Fishery Exhaustion
Mineral Exhaustion Species Extinction Human Redundancy
Population Clearances Relocation Structural Adjustment
Politically Induced Disasters (PIDs)

War (external) War (internal) Terrorism
Apartheid Ethnic Cleansing Holocaust

Exile Persecution Rights Violations
Totalitarianism Anarchy Extremism/Intolerance
Socially Induced Disasters (SIDs)

Ecological Extremism Animal Rights Activism Green Crusaders
Fanaticism Excommunication Jihad
Class War Shunning_ Boycott_
Source: Richmond (1993).
cance (both in numerical and human suffe

forced migrations.
Obviously one of the major barriers to rese
migration is the lack of available relevant
collection of data is accorded low priority
mental crises. As Dirks (1980) has pointed
While the biology of starvation has been analyzed i
little systematic knowledge about social behavior. T
to certain stumbling blocks impeding field study c
the relief missions, the repugnance of seeking data
As has been reviewed elsewhere (Hugo, 1984

employed innovative, imaginative and sensitiv
crisis situations where conventional sources ha
Nevertheless, it is important that due conside
to such movement to inclusion of relevant qu
induced population mobility in censuses and other large-scal

initiatives. Too often the questions included reflect internation
tions and not the specific local conditions and needs of local pe
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AS A CAUSE OF MIGRATION
The response of leaving an area on a permanent or temporary basis in

of a life threatening environmental crisis is, of course, eminendy rati
has been a most important survival strategy throughout human
However, the situation in the mid-1990s with respect to such mov
would appear to differ somewhat from the historical experience in a n
of ways: the scale and pace of environmental change has increased subs
differences between countries in ability to cope with these chan
increased; whereas in the past the migration destination options for en
mental migrants have overwhelmingly been to move within their coun
origin, international destinations are of increasing significance. These
sitions will be expanded upon in this section.
Considering first the environmental forces impelling acute or r
migration, a global survey of natural disasters for the period 194
found that the overall number of disasters is increasing over time and
disproportionately large share of all lives lost (86%) in such disasters o
in Asia (Shah, 1983). Since 1980 environmental pressures have cont
increase due to increased population growth leading to greater con
of resources, pressure on agricultural land, pollution, etc., increased in
alization, and massive technological changes increasing the capacity of
to reshape environments. While it is true that global awareness of the
adopt sustainable development policies and practices has also increas
can be no doubt that the incidence of environmental disasters also has
as have the associated population displacements.
To substantiate this contention we focus on the Asian region, which
more than half of the world s population and is experiencing rapid eco
and social change. The United Nations Disaster Research Organization N
the period 1976-1994 was scanned for reports of all major enviro
catastrophes that occurred in Asia over the last two decades along
volume of associated environmentally induced migration. While these d
far from comprehensive, they are indicative of the scale of the pheno
such population movement, although it must be reiterated that the va
of the refugees were resetded or otherwise accommodated within t
nations. The data are summarized in Figure 3 and show that over the l
decades there has been a trend toward increasing numbers of people di
by environmental disasters in Asia, although there is considerable
from year to year in the numbers involved. Figure 4 shows the nu
Asian environmental refugees by country. As would be expected, th
FIGURE 3. Asia: Population Displaced by Natural Disasters, 1976-1994

Millions
300 -
1 i JL_? I I i
Source: Compiled from UNDRO News, 1976-1994.
nations of China and India (with 37.8% of the world s population) dominate,
although the incidence in the much smaller nation of Bangladesh (1995
population of 119.2 million) is very substantial.
Nevertheless, some of the largest displacements of environmental refugees
occurred in the largest countries in Asia. In 1976, China experienced its worst
earthquake since 1556. Centered on Tangshan, some 730,000 people were
rendered homeless (Breeze, 1980:103). In 1994, one-fifth ofChinas uplands were
idled by floods and drought, creating a mass migration to urban areas (Kaye, 1994).
The construction of China's Three Gorges Dam will displace 1.3 million people
(Huus, 1994). In Bangladesh, frequent cyclones, floods and tidal surges have taken
considerable toll of human life as well as causing massive population shifts.
Whenever natural calamities like floods hit Bangladesh, people migrate from the coun?
tryside to urban areas. An unusual increase of beggars and people looking for work in cities
and towns is part of the aftermath of drought and floods. This year, five successive floods
submerged nearly 14 million acres, destroying the homes and hopes of over 30 million
people. They claimed 900 lives, 85,000 head of cattle, and washed away half a million
homes. {Population: UNFPA Newsletter, 10, II, November 1984:2)
In India alone it is reported (Kayastha and Yadara, 1985:79) that 15 million

people are affected by natural disasters each year. This involves some 2.5
million being rendered homeless and 4 million having to migrate elsewhere to
seek food and shelter.
It is apparent that environmentally induced migrations are esp

in Africa. As Jacobsen (1988:11) has pointed out:
Of all the continents, Africa, a land where poor soils and variable rainfall
climate for agriculture, has spawned the most environmental refugee
from the Sahel, a belt that spans several agro-ecological zones and stretc
east across some nine countries from Mauritania and Senegal on into
Desertification is accelerating in the Sahel, the world's largest area threat
wholesale loss of arable land-
The droughts of 1968-1973 and 1982-1984 led to millions of

refugees. In the first of these, there were a million environme
Burkina Faso alone. Table 2 shows the numbers displaced by the e
drought.
With reference to the simple model depicted in Figure 2, there are a number of
developments in contemporary less developed countries (LDCs) which have
exacerbated the predisposing conditions and increased the incidence of precipi?
tating events for environmentally induced migration:
? Population growth has continued to increase pressure on agricultural land
although significant fertility declines have occurred in Asia and Latin
America and in limited parts of Africa. This has forced more people to
settle in and cultivate marginal areas, making them more subject to
flooding, erosion, desertification and other environmental degradation.
? Continuation of high incidence of poverty has meant that both individuals
and nations have not the resources to initiate environmentally sustainable
practices. For many there is a total preoccupation with survival.
? Concerted efforts to increase food production through the green revolution
have seen some spectacular increases in output, but often at the expense of
environmental concerns. Hence, clearing practices, heavy use of fertilizers,
herbicides and pesticides have all often had undesirable environmental
outcomes.
? Many LDCs have liberalized their economies to encourage

ment, especially in manufacturing, and multinational
taken advantage of cheap labor to establish factories.
environmental controls on such developments are less com
in more developed countries (MDCs), and certainly the poli
regulations is usually weaker so that environmental pollu
activity can be considerable.
? In many LDCs the ability to enact legislation for environ
ability and to police existing legislation is restricted by limite
and corruption. Accordingly, it is difficult to control de
pollution, water pollution, land degradation, etc., in the f
pressures on exploitation of the environment created by g
tion, increasing involvement of foreign enterprises, etc.
FIGURE 4. Asia: Number of Persons Displaced by Environmental Disas

1976-1994
NUMBER OF PEOPLE DISPLACED
350.000,000
1. AFGHANISTAN 7 INDONESIA 13. PAKISTAN
2. BANGLADESH 8 IRAN 14. PHILIPPINES
3. BURMA/MYANMAR 9. JAPAN 15. SRI LANKA
4. CAMBODIA 10 KOREA 16. THAILAND
5. CHINA 11. LAOS 17. VIETNAM
6. INDIA 12. NEPAL
Source: Assembled from UNDRO News, 1976-1994.
TABLE 2
Displaced Population in Selected African Countries, September 1985
People Displaced Share of Population

Country _(Percent)_
Burkina Faso 222,000 3
Chad 500,000 11
Mali 200,000 3
Mauritania 190,000 12
Niger_ 1,000,000 16
Source: Jacobsen (1988:13).
? Climate change may become a significant factor in im

mental migration. The expansion of the hole in the ozon
warming, and anticipated increases in sea levels would ha
population displacement implications. For example, a repo
National Academies of Sciences and Engineering and Instit
(1991:24) concludes that while understanding of complex
systems is limited, some radical changes which will incre
peratures must be considered plausible:
- As high altitude tundra melts, CH4 would be relea
greenhouse warming.
- Increased freshwater runoff in high latitudes and reduc
in temperature between poles and equator could ra
ocean currents, leading to altered weather patterns.
- There could be a significant melting of the West Ant
resulting in a sea level several meters higher than it is t
The report concludes that, while migration is likely to b
response to climate change, in the United States it is
climate-driven migration will be on a scale that cannot b
However, it is not sufficient to consider the migration-env
tionship only in terms of migration induced as a response to
particular environmental events. As Suhrke (1992:5) points
From a broader development perspective, environmental degradatio
proximate cause of migration. The underlying causes are found in incr
lation pressures on land and the patterns of resource use. Demography
economy, in other words, are most salient causal factors. Yet these obv
in critical ways with specific environmental variables. Sometimes the
of a kind that leads to massive outmigration. But to understand why,
to focus on the broader development process.
Similarly, Richmond (1993:8) argues

. . . when environmental degradation leads to migration itis generally
cause linked ro questions of economic growth, poverty, population
political conflict.
Bilsborrow (1991), in his case studies of Indonesia, Guate

depicts environmental degradation as one of a cluster of cause
tion. He suggests that environmental changes induced migrat
"social" effects by 1) reducing income; 2) increasing the
reduction in the future; 3) making the environment less heal
The model outlined in Figure 2 emphasizes the fact that altho
environmental event may be the trigger that actually init
population displacement, it is the predisposing conditions whi
cially important in determining one or more of the following
severity of the actual precipitating event, which is usually some
mental disaster or disruption; whether or n

scale of that migration. Hence in many
underlying causes of environmental mi
related to political, economic, social and
interventions need to address the more fu
rather than the triggering event which init
It would seem that environmental degr
contributory cause of population mobility
push being exerted by poverty, population
underemployment, lack of access to servic
Migration is usually not simply a response
constellation of often interlinked forces. A
cialized and mechanized in LCDs, declini
labor is exerting considerable outmigration
by increasing environmental disruption.
ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRATION-

INTERNAL VERSUS INTERNATIONAL
The bulk of migrants displaced by environmental disruption m

national boundaries, and international environmental migration has
limited. However, there are a number of arguments which could be
to suggest that over the next decade environmental factors will bec
significant in impelling international movements.
The first such argument would point to the increasing strength o
mental push factors in LDCs, especially the nonmetropolitan sectors
countries. As was made clear at UNCED and in a number of com
reviews (e.g., Suhrke, 1992, 1994; United Nations, 1994; Green,
signs of environmental stress are continuing to increase in LD
examples will suffice to make this point (Green, 1992:12-17). Eac
? 17 million hectares of tropical forest vanish;
? a billion tons of topsoil are lost due to soil degradation whic
1.2 billion hectares of land losing much of their agricultural p
ity since 1945;
? if water pollution continues at current rates, as much as one-fourth of
the world's freshwater supply could be unsafe for human consumption
by the end of the 1990s.
Air pollution, desertification and loss of biodiversity also are increasing their
impacts in LDCs. Despite global action following UNCED, there are few signs
of a reversal in trends of environmental degradation in LDCs.
Particular attention has been focused on global warming and its inevitable
corollary - rising sea levels (Birdsall, 1992). While there is some debate, it is
anticipated that sea levels may rise one meter by the year 2100, affecting
360,000 kilometers of coasdine (Suhrke, 1992). Since almost two-t

worlds population lives within 100 kilometers of the coast a
world s 50 largest cities are located on the coast, the potential fo
displacement from a significant rise in sea level is considerable. I
commentators have painted future scenarios of millions of people
to move by sea level changes (Gleick, 1989; Kaplan, 1994). Kr
has reviewed the impacts of climate change and migration and co
While historical and contemporary cases can be cited of climate exerti
influence on migration, climate per se is seldom the root cause of migration b
one more factor that exacerbates the already difficult conditions under w
people attempt to cope with their changing environments.
It is apparent that while significant population displacement is a

of climate change, the effects have been exaggerated in the literat
(1993:11) points out:
The social impact is indicated by estimates that over the next 60 years, 13-1
of Bangladesh's population would be displaced in a worst case scenario (
1988:34). If the displacement occurs at a steady rate, the first 'installments
of the order of 200,000-300,000 persons annually. While a sizeable figure
than one-quarter of the new arrivals who annually enter Bangladesh's labo
due to popular increase alone.
Moreover, in most such cases, it is within countries that

population displacement is likely to occur. This is not possible
small low lying island nations such as the Maldives and especially
the island nations of the Pacific (Connell, 1987). The scope f
population redistribution within such countries is limited, so
pressure for resettlement in another country. In many such nati
strong existing social networks set up with destination countries
displaced populations may travel (Moore and Smith, 1995).
There are other emerging developments in international migrat
the future may lead to environmentally displaced persons conside
tional as well as internal destinations. These relate predominancy
identified in Figure 2 as facilitators - elements which, rather than cau
make that movement possible or channel it in a particular directi
decision to move has been made. The sheer increase in the scale of
migration, especially South-North migration in the last decade, h
the social networks linking potential migrants in LDCs with famil
in MDCs have proliferated exponentially. This has meant that the
options for people in LDCs pushed out of their homes by en
disruptions are increasingly including international destinations.
Another factor here and an often neglected element in the acce
population movement between nations over the last decade is the e
development of an international immigration industry. This is an incr
group of agents, recruiters, travel businesses, lawyers, etc., operati
and outside legal structures to facilitate int

another. As with the strengthening and spre
the development of the immigration ind
facilitator (Figure 2) of international migrat
Hence it could be argued strongly that envi
to increase in LDCs over the next decade and
increasingly important in pushing people ou
mental factors will become a more significant
areas, but mainly as a proximate and contributo
on people seeking to survive in such context
of sudden environmental disasters will also
placements of population. It is likely too that
migration will take place within nations, a gr
nations in line with globalization trends and
and increasing numbers of institutions, busin
tional migration.
While the bulk of our attention here has fo
and disciplines as a push factor initiating or
also be mentioned that environmental facto
population movements toward destinations p
ments (Svart, 1976). Such movement predom
of it occurs within nations, as with the mov
States and from the southeast to northeastern
also occurs internationally, especially among
of northern and western Europeans to some
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
In considering the role of international migration as an independent variab

impacting upon the environment, a useful starting point is the equa
developed by Ehrlich and Holdren (1971) and Ehrlich and Ehrlich (1990
I=PXAXT
Where /= Environmental Impact

P = Population Size and Growth
A = Affluence - per capita consumption
and services
T- Technology - quantity of resourc
environmental damage sustained a
generated during production and c
per unit of goods and services.
While this formula has been subject to criticism (

1993; Hogan, 1992), it does emphasize the point
growth is an important element shaping the extent of enviro

not the only one. Hence control of population growth does no
for environmental problems. Clearly, although reduced pop
assist in reducing environmental pressure, there is no simple
between population density and growth and environmental
International migration plays a role in influencing popula
size in the areas of origin and destination of migrants. Other
(which of course they rarely are), emigration will red
pressures at the origin and increase them at the destinat
unlikely that international migration can occur on such a sc
term solution to environmental pressure problems in LDCs
restricted localized areas (Keyfitz, 1991).
In the traditional immigration nations such as Canada, the
Australia, debates about immigration have generally raged a
ethnic composition of the intake and the economic conseque
gration. However, there are some indications of the environ
immigration becoming an increasingly important element in
the case of Australia, in the 1980s there were a few commenta
Australia should dramatically reduce immigration levels becau
concerns that an expanding population will have detrimenta
native environment, flora and fauna and upon the capacity of
base to accommodate that expansion (Birrell, Hill and N
Rowland, 1988). However, in more recent times, concern
mental consequences of immigration has seen this issue eme
dominant arguments against expanding immigration levels.
? The National Population Council (1992:109) report on
and Australia's future stated, that"... the Committee ha
national ecological integrity would be best served by an
policy which resulted in a reduced rate of population gr
? A report by the House of Representatives Standing Com
Term Strategies (Parliament of the Commonwealth
1994:149) on Australia's population carrying capacit
that the nation develop a population policy which expli
account environmental costs of population growth.
? Environmental arguments against immigration are
addressed in the Australian literature on population
(Smith, 1991; Bierbaum, 1991; Boyden, Dovers and Shir
1992; Clarke et al., 1990; Fincher, 1991; Industries Assis
sion, 1989).
? A symposium of the Australian Academy of Science (1994) emphasized
the environmental limitations of Australia and the pressing need to
reduce population growth as part of t

Ecologically Sustainable Development.
? In 1995, the Premier of New South W
immigration to Sydney (the destination
grants arriving in Australia) because of t
and service delivery costs imposed (Th
It is apparent, therefore, that in Australia the
environmental pressures is gathering strength
immigration levels. It is suggested that high
? through enhancing population growth
scarce national resources (especially no
which have a limited finite supply such
of environmental degradation;
? through concentrating population distri
sensitive or fragile subareas within the n
pressures and problems in those areas. Im
is extremely concentrated in a few part
Obviously there is a great deal of scapegoating
They ignore the reality of the environment
which indicates that sheer population num
impinging upon the environment, along wit
the way in which the people use the environ
of population growth or immigration levels i
to such environmental problems. They cannot
adoption of policies and practices which redu
which ensure that urban and rural environm
ways that are compatible with ecological sus
crucial that environmental considerations be
the Australian government about immigrati
is one of the factors impinging upon the en
traditional immigration nations like Austral
of immigration are coming under much great
community more generally- and that they w
policy about the level of international migrat
Suhrke (1992:2) points out that the body of
on the environment is considerably greater
cause of migration. Again, however, the bul
migration, with litde examination of the ec
quences of international migration. There are
land setdement into marginal and fragil
desertification, deforestation and other envir
Bilsborrow, 1991, 1992; Allen and Barnes,
and DeLargy, 1991; Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Cruz, Zo

Goce, 1988; Georges and Bilsborrow, 1991; Hafher and Api
Pichon and Bilsborrow, 1992). The expansion of agricultura
hitherto untilled areas in some LDC contexts has led to severe
deterioration. This occurs both in government organized an
setdement programs and especially where the setdement
government controls and involves squatters. In Indonesia,
ecological impact of the governments Transmigration Pr
substantial (Secrett, 1986).
One type of international migration which has attracted atten
environmental impacts is refugee movement The sudden unplan
numbers of people into a generally spatially restricted area, often
to environmental degradation, can have devastating environmental
1993). Gliimire (1994:561) has recendy summarized the situatio
Deforestation is one of many environmental problems facing refugees
countries. Others include the depletion and contamination of water, ov
poor sanitation, soil erosion and pasture degradation. In some cases, for
and other environmental problems existed prior to the arrival of refu
the problems have been exacerbated by the refugees. Dwindling resourc
led to increasing conflict with local populations and much hardship fo
There are a number of studies which depict situations in Afri

extent Asia, where refugee setdement has resulted in environ
tion (Ek and Karadawi, 1991; Simmance, 1987; Christensen
Utting, 1992; Aguayo etal, 1987; Hugo, 1987).
While it is apparent that international migration can and do
environmental consequences, in some contexts there are consi
that the migrants involved can become scapegoats for a gener
sustainable policies of land and other resource use in the desti
Australia, a review (Clarke etal, 1990) of literature concerned
tion, population growth and the environment, concluded that
be better off in general using resource management policies t
with specific resource and environmental concerns, rather th
gration policies. This should not be taken to mean that popula
immigration are not of relevance in discussion about Australia
a sustainable development strategy but rather as Toyne (1990)
It is vital the immigration debate is moved directly into the broader debate
sustainability in Australia. No long-term resolution to the question of a
immigration levels can be found until the broader questions are settled.
Toyne makes the important distinction between short-ter

considerations:
A much more sophisticated approach to the question of population and s

needed than has been evidenced in the debate to date. It must be acknow
the short run over the next 20 years or so, environmental decline in Austr
addressed through changing our lifestyles, consum

waste disposal and minimization technologies. In th
we wish to accommodate in Australia will play a sig
level of environmental impact and demand for scar
SOME ETHICAL AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The causes and effects of environmental deterioration in LDCs cannot be

quarantined within the national boundaries of individual nations. It is clear
that much contemporary environmental degradation in LDCs has its real roots
in historical processes such as colonial exploitation which produced different
modes of agricultural and pastoral activity to meet the needs of the colonial
power and different patterns of population growth and distribution from those
which prevailed in precolonial times. Similarly, international inequalities in
power, access to resources, unequal terms of trade, etc. have all been influential
in shaping patterns of land use and setdement in LDCs, as have the interven?
tions of international companies and agencies. Moreover, the consequences of
deforestation, pollution, etc. are not confined to single nations. The rapid
depletion of rainforests in a few countries like Brazil and Indonesia, for
example, has climate change and loss of biodiversity implications which are
global. The clear message, not only from the 1992 UNCED but from as far
back as the 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment and the
1987 publication of the World Commission on Environment and Develop?
ment report, Our Common Future, is that achieving ecologically sustainable
development demands action at the global level as well as the national and
individual levels. Successfully tackling many of the environmental problems
of LDCs and MDCs will require a global approach, and central to this is the
pressing need to eradicate poverty so that people can have access to the
resources to live sustainably. This will demand several redistributions from
MDCs to LDCs through changes in international power, trade and aid
relationships. In short, the environmental pressures which are increasingly the
cause and consequence of population movements in LDCs should not be seen
as exclusively the problems of the individual countries involved since those
pressures have been caused partly by forces outside of the country and they
have consequences which extend beyond the borders of those countries.
Migration is a logical and common immediate response to environmental
degradation and disaster, but it is rarely a medium or long-term solution to
environmental problems. This will only be attained via lower levels of popu?
lation growth through substantial and sustained fertility decline and adopting
ecologically sustainable ways of using the environment. Both of these goals are
only going to be achieved through overcoming poverty and powerlessness
among the people living in regions subject to environmental disaster and
degradation. Only through improving employment opportunities for men and
women, health, education, human rights and enhancing the st

of women within such societies can long-term sustainability be a
as international processes have contributed to the creation of env
problems in LDCs, long-term solutions will only be possible w
involvement of the international community.
Environmental pressures are undoubtedly an increasing elemen
outmigration from many rural areas in LDCs. However, environm
are more significant as contributory and proximate causes of suc
although "environmental refugee" migration is significant. The b
movement is intranational, but just as other forms of migration
increasingly involving crossing international borders, it is likely
proportion of environmentally displaced persons will move to oth
However, such migration cannot be generally seen as a solutio
mental problems in LDCs because:
? The vast scale of such movement is such that the sheer
moving and establishing such refugees in other nations is m
larger than any previous global migration (Keyfitz, 1991).
? It does not represent a real and lasting solution to envi
problems, which can only come through eradicating poverty
fertility, and adopting environmentally sustainable practice
International relocation may provide an enduring solution only in
circumstances such as in small island nations influenced by a sign
in sea levels or in small regions devastated by an environmental d
The fact remains, however, that there are significant displ
population occurring in LDCs as a result of environmenta
deterioration. Most of this displacement occurs within the
nations and there is certainly no indication of a lessening of the
environmental migrants in LDCs. Hence it is imperative that the
community look to short-term measures as well as the longer-ter
discussed above. As was indicated earlier, the people involved are
covered by international refugee protocols, and there is a pressing
group of forced migrants to be systematically incorporated into
international regime to assist people who are uprooted involuntar
home areas (Rogers and Copeland, 1993:132).
CONCLUSION
The growing appreciation of the global implications of environ

lems is occurring at a time of a rapidly changing context in which
exchanges of population, goods, capital and information are accele
unprecedented rate. Our understanding of the nature and signifi
complex linkages between migration and environmental change r
limited (IOM, 1992). It is clear, however, that the internation
of the migration-environment relationship

cance. This presents a considerable challeng
searchers. Rogers and Copeland (1993:135),
issues related to forced migrations associated w
The 1990s is a time of uncertainty, change and opp
that confronted the international community with r
more predictable during the Cold War, certain opport
and for the creation of solutions which present them
even a few years ago. Our paper expresses the hope th
a UN system that is itself undergoing changes, and
- will find the political will and the necessary resou
opportunities for dealing creatively with the new an
migration due to war and persecution.
It is the contention here that the world is fac

respect to forced migration due to environmen
for international involvement. This should be
with environmental migrants displaced by the
more importandy in the longer term in worki
population growth and encourage the adopti
the environment which, if successful, will obvi
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Environmental Concerns and International Migration

Author(s): Graeme Hugo

This article focuses on international migration occurring as a result of

IMR Vol. xxx, No. 1 105

in initiating international migration. This is at

CONCEPTUALIZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN

The migration literature is replete with typologies which differentiate m

On the other hand some scholars of migration argue that much

Indeed the early typology developed by Peterson recognized this degr

Population mobility is probably best viewed as being arr

Refugees differ from other, spontaneous or sponsored migrants, la

This definition stresses the involuntary, forced nature of

FIGURE 1. A Simple Continuum of Internati

destination. There is no consideration in this definition of the distance the

threat of conflict (Zolberg and Suhrke, 1984:2) - it has hu

In fact, Kunz goes on to recognize two distinct "kinetic"

of the biophysical environment; structura

FIGURE 2. A Simple Model of Environmentally Induced Migration

Source: Modified and simplified from ideas in Richmond (1993).

researchers and policymakers alike. Jacobsen (1988:6, 1989:30) summarizes

Most governments do not recognize environmental decline as a legitimate cause of

Naturally Induced Disasters (NIDs)

Earthquakes Volcanic Eruptions Avalanches

Floods (freshwater) Floods (saltwater) Hail and Snow Storms

Technologically Induced Disasters (TIDs)

Factory Accidents Soil Exhaustion Urban Dereliction

Economically Induced Disasters (EIDs)

Politically Induced Disasters (PIDs)

Apartheid Ethnic Cleansing Holocaust

Socially Induced Disasters (SIDs)

cance (both in numerical and human suffe

As has been reviewed elsewhere (Hugo, 1984

induced population mobility in censuses and other large-scal

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AS A CAUSE OF MIGRATION

The response of leaving an area on a permanent or temporary basis in

FIGURE 3. Asia: Population Displaced by Natural Disasters, 1976-1994

In India alone it is reported (Kayastha and Yadara, 1985:79) that 15 million

It is apparent that environmentally induced migrations are esp

The droughts of 1968-1973 and 1982-1984 led to millions of

? Many LDCs have liberalized their economies to encourage

FIGURE 4. Asia: Number of Persons Displaced by Environmental Disas

NUMBER OF PEOPLE DISPLACED

1. AFGHANISTAN 7 INDONESIA 13. PAKISTAN

2. BANGLADESH 8 IRAN 14. PHILIPPINES

3. BURMA/MYANMAR 9. JAPAN 15. SRI LANKA

4. CAMBODIA 10 KOREA 16. THAILAND

5. CHINA 11. LAOS 17. VIETNAM

6. INDIA 12. NEPAL

Source: Assembled from UNDRO News, 1976-1994.

People Displaced Share of Population

? Climate change may become a significant factor in im

Similarly, Richmond (1993:8) argues

Bilsborrow (1991), in his case studies of Indonesia, Guate

mental disaster or disruption; whether or n

ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRATION-

The bulk of migrants displaced by environmental disruption m

360,000 kilometers of coasdine (Suhrke, 1992). Since almost two-t

It is apparent that while significant population displacement is a