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    Climate Change and Agri Trade - IFPRI 2009

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    Chandan Sapkota
    This document summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and trade. It finds that climate change will significantly alter crop yields and comparative advantages, leading to changes in global trade flows. Without adaptation measures, climate change could increase child malnutrition by 20% by 2050. However, the analysis shows that reducing agricultural protectionism can help mitigate these negative effects to some degree by allowing for more flexible trade in food commodities. The research models these impacts using climate change scenarios combined with crop, hydrology, and economic models.

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    Climate Change and Agri Trade - IFPRI 2009

    Uploaded by

    Chandan Sapkota
    49 views18 pages
    This document summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and trade. It finds that climate change will significantly alter crop yields and comparative advantages, leading to changes in global trade flows. Without adaptation measures, climate change could increase child malnutrition by 20% by 2050. However, the analysis shows that reducing agricultural protectionism can help mitigate these negative effects to some degree by allowing for more flexible trade in food commodities. The research models these impacts using climate change scenarios combined with crop, hydrology, and economic models.

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    Climate Change and Agri Trade_IFPRI 2009

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    This document summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and trade. It finds that climate change will significantly alter crop yields and comparative advantages, leading to changes in global trade flows. Without adaptation measures, climate change could increase child malnutrition by 20% by 2050. However, the analysis shows that reducing agricultural protectionism can help mitigate these negative effects to some degree by allowing for more flexible trade in food commodities. The research models these impacts using climate change scenarios combined with crop, hydrology, and economic models.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    49 views18 pages

    Climate Change and Agri Trade - IFPRI 2009

    Uploaded by

    Chandan Sapkota
    This document summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and trade. It finds that climate change will significantly alter crop yields and comparative advantages, leading to changes in global trade flows. Without adaptation measures, climate change could increase child malnutrition by 20% by 2050. However, the analysis shows that reducing agricultural protectionism can help mitigate these negative effects to some degree by allowing for more flexible trade in food commodities. The research models these impacts using climate change scenarios combined with crop, hydrology, and economic models.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    of 18

    Climate Change and Agricultural

    Trade: How effective is reform as


    an adaptation measure?

    Gerald C. Nelson
    Senior Research Fellow
    Environment and Production Technology Division

    World Bank and WTO Climate Change and Agriculture Trade


    Risks and Responses

    22 September 2009

    Preview of Results

    ƒ Climate change alters comparative advantage

    ƒ Agricultural trade flows change dramatically

    ƒ Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent


    increase in malnourished children by 2050

    ƒ Reduced agricultural protection mitigates the negative


    effects some

    ƒ Results still considered preliminary. IFPRI Food Policy


    Review released October 5 at IFPRI

    Page 2
    Outline

    ƒ Climate Change Modeling Methodology


    ƒ Impacts: Crop Supply, Demand, and Trade
    ƒ Climate Change Adaptation Costs
    ƒ The Effects of Changes in Protection

    Page 3

    MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR


    CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
    Integrating Location-specific Biophysical
    and Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical
    ƒ Climate change will bring location-specific changes
    • in precipitation, temperature and variability
    ƒ Need to reconcile
    • limited resolution of macro-level economic models that
    operate through equilibrium-driven relationships with
    • detailed models of dynamic biophysical processes –
    crop models
    ƒ Provide more realistic modeling of climate change
    effects (biophysical and economic) on global/regional
    agriculture

    Page 5

    Global Change Model Components

    ƒ GCM climate scenarios


    • NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier) using SRES A2
    ƒ DSSAT crop model
    • Biophysical crop response to temp and precip
    ƒ ISPAM
    • Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars,
    soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops
    ƒ IMPACT2009
    • Global food supply demand trade model. Results to
    2050 with global hydrology
    Climate Change Affects Comparative
    Advantage, Rice Importing Country
    Rice
    Rice imports
    Wheat exports, 2000

    Increases in rice
    R2000 imports and wheat
    R2050 exports, 2050

    Pwd
    Prw

    W2000 W Wheat
    2050

    Page 7

    Climate Change Affects Comparative


    Advantage, Rice Exporting Country
    Rice
    Rice exports
    Wheat imports, 2000
    Key
    Key point:
    point: Climate
    Climate change
    change might
    might increase
    increase or
    or decrease
    decrease
    trade
    trade flow.
    flow. ItIt depends
    depends on
    on Reduction in rice
    R2000 exportsadvantage
    and wheat
    •• Biophysical
    Biophysical determinants
    determinants of
    of relative
    relative advantage
    R2050 imports, 2050
    •• Socioeconomic
    Socioeconomic determinants
    determinants of
    of demand
    demand

    Pwd
    Prw

    W2000 W Wheat
    2050

    Page 8
    Rising average temperatures

    Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ Page 9

    … could increase much more

    Page 10
    Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
    AVERAGE ANNUAL
    PRECIPITATION CHANGES BY
    GCM

    Watch Sub-Saharan Africa, the Amazon, and South Asia

    Change in Precipitation, 2000-2050


    CSIRO, A2, AR4
    Change in Precipitation, 2000-2050
    NCAR, A2, AR4

    BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTION
    RESULTS

    Climate-change-only effects on yield and area


    Climate induced percentage change in yield in
    2050: Irrigated Rice

    NCAR A2

    Climate induced percentage change in yield in


    2050: Rainfed Rice

    NCAR A2
    Climate induced percentage change in yield in
    2050: Rainfed Maize

    NCAR A2

    Climate induced percentage change in yield in


    2050: Irrigated Wheat

    NCAR A2
    FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    RESULTS

    IMPACT2009
    Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models
    and
    economic effects from global agriculture model

    Impact on International Food Prices


    Greater price
    increases with
    climate change

    Page 20
    Climate Change Plus Economic Impacts on
    Rice Production

    Page 21

    Impacts on Maize Production

    Page 22
    Impacts on Wheat Production

    Page 23

    Impacts on Cereal Trade Flows

    CSIRO developing country


    imports are about 150
    million mt

    Page 24
    Impact on Per Capita Calorie Availability

    Per capita calorie availability


    increases without climate
    change Per capita calorie availability
    falls with climate change

    Page 25

    Impact on Childhood Malnutrition

    Child malnutrition falls


    without climate change
    Child malnutrition increases
    except in SSA
    with climate change

    Page 26
    CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
    COSTS

    Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation

    ƒ Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition


    with climate change to the level with no climate
    change

    ƒ What types of investments considered?


    • Agricultural research
    • Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements
    • Rural roads

    Page 28
    Adaptation Costs are Large!

    ƒ Required additional annual expenditure


    • Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion
    • Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion
    ƒ Regional level
    • Sub-Saharan Africa - 40% of the total, mainly for rural
    roads
    • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation
    efficiency
    • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year,
    research
    • East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research
    and irrigation efficiency

    Page 29

    Developed Country Adaptation


    Expenditures Help
    ƒ With additional investments in the developed
    countries, spillover effects to the developing world
    reduce the need for adaptation investments slightly

    ƒ NCAR scenario, developing country adaptation costs


    • Developing countries investments only -> US$7.1 billion
    • With additional developed country productivity
    investments -> US$6.8 billion

    Page 30
    What about changes in protection?

    ƒ Protection in IMPACT defined as PSE and CSE

    PS = ⎡⎣ PW (1 − MI ) ⎤⎦ (1 + PSE )
    PD = ⎡⎣ PW (1 + MI ) ⎤⎦ (1 − CSE )
    ƒ Two experiments
    • Double protection – multiply PSE and CSE by 2
    • Eliminate protection – set PSE and CSE to 0

    Page 31

    2000 Maize Prices, Protection Experiments


    Compare Brazil liberalization To France
    liberalization

    Double protection has greater


    effect than elimination
    Page 32
    Results from the Experiments: 2050 Cereal
    Trade Flow Changes

    Page 33

    Results from the Experiments: 2050 Child


    Malnutrition Changes

    Page 34
    Conclusions

    ƒ Climate change will have negative impacts on


    agricultural production and food security in developing
    countries
    ƒ Agriculture is critical for
    • Employment
    • Economic development and
    • Food security
    ƒ Argues for significant expenditures to reduce the
    adverse impacts of climate change
    ƒ Reduced agricultural protection (border and domestic)
    helps some.

    Page 35

    www.ifpri.org

    Thank you

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