m865 Eval Proposals
m865 Eval Proposals
m865 Eval Proposals
Introduction
Once a cash flow statement for a proposal in a form suitable for the calculation of
profitability has been prepared, proposal evaluation methods which are in very common
use can be applied to compare different proposals or evaluate a single proposal. These
methods are:
(a) the payback period method
(b) the average gross annual rate of return method
(c) the average net annual rate of return method
(d) discounted cash flow methods.
Each of these methods has its own particular advantages, but in the case of
methods (a) to (c) particularly, they also have significant limitations. Methods (a), (b)
and (c) have one serious limitation in common – all three ignore the effect of time and
interest rates on the value of money. All three methods assume that the impact of cash
outflows occurring early in a project is no greater than outflows of the same value
occurring in later years and conversely that inflows received in later years are worth as
much as the same inflows received immediately.
This is clearly unrealistic. Because of the tendency for all currencies to depreciate over
time, i.e. for their purchasing power to decline, every £1 received today or in the
immediate future is worth more in real terms than each £1 received some years in the
future. Every £1 of cost incurred early in a project has a greater impact than every £1 of
cost deferred to a later date.
The effect of interest is incorporated into discounted cash flow methods, which gives
these distinct advantages over the first three.
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Even if the net cash flow varies year by year, it is just as simple to calculate the
payback period. Look at this next example which we will call Proposal A:
• The method looks entirely at cash flow and completely ignores profitability or
return on investment.
• The method assumes that all money is of equal value no matter when it is spent or
received (though if financing costs are incorporated in a cash flow statement this
partly relieves this criticism).
• If a short payback period is required this method will miss many worthwhile longer-
term proposals.
• Many organizations use the payback period method by itself and look for payback
periods of two, or at the outside three, years. As a result many worthwhile (but
longer-term) proposals which would give a high rate of return on investment never
get accepted. If you must use this method, then use one of the ‘rate of return’
methods as well to get a second point of view.
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The average gross annual rate of return method
This method concerns itself entirely with profitability and completely ignores the pattern
of cash flows and the payback period! This at least brings it into line with the usual
object of proposal evaluation.
The method calculates the average proceeds (positive net cash flow) per year over the
life of a project and expresses this average as a percentage return per year on the
project investment. This can be demonstrated by looking again at Proposal A to invest
£100 000 described above:
The initial project investment (I) = £100 000
The total positive net cash flow (NCF) over the five years of the project life (L) = £135 000
NCF
Annual average proceeds (AAP) =
L
£135 000
=
5
AAP = £27 000
AAP 27 000
Return on initial investment = = × 100 = 27%
I 100 000
In comparing proposals we may find that the payback period and the annual rate of
return methods give us completely opposite results, hence the recommendation never
to use either of these methods alone. Use both and then decide what is your main
objective – is it quick payback or high rate of return in the longer term?
Having arrived at the average gross annual rate of return for a proposal, compare that
rate with the financing cost rate which you believe you will have to pay on the funds
needed to finance the proposal. If the rate of return exceeds the financing cost rate, go
ahead. If it does not, either try to find a cheaper source of finance or refrain from
implementing the proposal.
With this method you could, if you wished, include depreciation costs on fixed assets as
cash outflows in the cash flow statement, but the normal way to allow for the writing-off
of fixed asset values is to use instead the average net annual rate of return method
described below.
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Average net cash flow (ANCF) per year (over five years)
NCF
=
L
£35 000
= = £7000
5
This is then divided by the average capital employed (ACE) which in this case is
calculated on the basis of an initial outlay of £100 000 and a final outlay of zero, i.e.
ACE = £50 000.
Average net annual rate of return =
ANCF= £7000 ÷ £50 000 × 100%
= 14% a year
Proposal B
Initial proposal investment = £100 000
Total positive net cash flows over life (five years) of proposal = £160 000
Surplus total net cash flow after recovery of initial investment = £60 000
Average net cash flow per year =
£60 000
= £12 000 per annum
5
Average net annual rate of return =
£12 000 ÷ £50 000 × 100% = 24% a year
If you use the average net annual rate of return method as described above then make
sure there are no depreciation costs in the cash flow statement, otherwise you will be
trying to recover fixed asset expenditure twice over.
Both the average annual rate of return methods suffer from the same disadvantage:
namely that cash flows over the life of a proposal are ‘smoothed out’ as a result of
averaging – the pattern of the cash flows is completely ignored.
In both these methods, the cash flows used are those before taking the effects of
corporation tax into consideration. The reason is to allow comparison of the results (the
rates of return) with the expected financing cost rates on the funds needed to finance
the proposal. These financing cost rates (which depend upon where the funds come
from) will probably be gross rates, i.e. before tax is taken into consideration. It is, of
course, essential to compare like with like!
Compounding
If you deposit a certain amount of money in a place where it will attract interest, such as a
building society, the total amount of money, if left there, will build up by a constant factor
every year. To take a simple example, consider what happens if you invest £1 in a building
society offering 10% p.a. interest. The amount after year 1 is £1 + (10/100 × £1) = £1.10.
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This is equivalent to multiplying the original £1 by a factor of 1.1. Repeated every year,
provided there are no withdrawals and assuming constant interest rates, the money builds
up as follows:
Year 0 £1.00
Year 1 £1.10
Year 2 £1.21
Year 3 £1.33
In a similar way, a company starts with a sum of money, say £100 000, which it will
invest in plant, the hiring of a work force, etc. The sale of its goods and services will
(one hopes) more than repay the initial investment costs. In other words the cash flows
from these sales should be equal to or exceed the interest that would have been
earned had the company simply put its money on deposit. If the company has an
internal rate of return (rate of compounding) of 10%, the value of this project will look
like this:
Year 0 £100 000
Year 1 £110 000
Year 2 £121 000
Year 3 £133 000
If a finance house provided a £100 000 loan with an interest rate of 10% to finance the
proposal, the proposal would just about be viable, but there will be no net profit to hand
over to shareholders. If the project were to be terminated after one year, the amount of
money owed to the finance house would exactly match the value of the project at that
time. If terminated after two years, the company would owe £12 100 and so on.
Discounting
The principle of discounting is that the reasoning behind compounding can be reversed.
Going back to the building society example and assuming an interest rate of 10%, we
could say that if we were to be promised £1.33 in three years’ time, this would be
equivalent to being paid £1 now, for, with that £1, we could obtain £1.33 in three years’
time through suitable investment. Using the 10% discount rate, values of £1.10 in a
year’s time, £1.21 in two years’ time and £1.33 in three years’ time have a present
value of £1.
Similarly, the present value of £1 in one year’s time would be £1/1.10 = £0.9091, or just
under 91 pence. The present values of future money for different rates of interest can
be set out in a discount table, and Table 1 below does this for a future, mythical £1.
[Looking at the discount table and the first entry in the 10% column in particular, you
can see straight away that £1 received in a year’s time has, as calculated previously, a
present value of £0.9091. The present value reduces as the future period is increased;
thus the present value of £1 to be received in five years’ time is only £0.6209. For
present values of future receipts other than £1, simply multiply by the required factor,
e.g. the present value of £5000 in five years’ time at 10% interest rate is
£(0.6209 × 5000) = £3104.50.
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TABLE 1 Discount table
n 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%
1 0.9901 0.9804 0.9709 0.9615 0.9524 0.9434 0.9346 0.9259 0.9174 0.9091 0.9009 0.8929 0.8850 0.8772 0.8696 0.8621
2 0.9803 0.9612 0.9426 0.9246 0.9070 0.8900 0.8734 0.8573 0.8417 0.8264 0.8116 0.7972 0.7831 0.7695 0.7561 0.7432
3 0.9706 0.9423 0.9151 0.8890 0.8638 0.8396 0.8163 0.7938 0.7722 0.7513 0.7312 0.7118 0.6931 0.6750 0.6575 0.6407
4 0.9610 0.9238 0.8885 0.8548 0.8227 0.7921 0.7629 0.7350 0.7084 0.6830 0.6587 0.6355 0.6133 0.5921 0.5718 0.5523
5 0.9515 0.9057 0.8626 0.8219 0.7835 0.7473 0.7130 0.6806 0.6499 0.6209 0.5935 0.5674 0.5428 0.5194 0.4972 0.4761
6 0.9420 0.8880 0.8375 0.7903 0.7462 0.7050 0.6663 0.6302 0.5963 0.5645 0.5346 0.5066 0.4803 0.4556 0.4323 0.4104
7 0.9327 0.8706 0.8131 0.7599 0.7107 0.6651 0.6227 0.5835 0.5470 0.5132 0.4817 0.4523 0.4251 0.3996 0.3759 0.3538
8 0.9235 0.8535 0.7894 0.7307 0.6768 0.6274 0.5820 0.5403 0.5019 0.4665 0.4339 0.4039 0.3762 0.3506 0.3269 0.3050
9 0.9143 0.8368 0.7664 0.7026 0.6446 0.5919 0.5439 0.5002 0.4604 0.4241 0.3909 0.3606 0.3329 0.3075 0.2843 0.2630
10 0.9053 0.8203 0.7441 0.6756 0.6139 0.5584 0.5083 0.4632 0.4224 0.3855 0.3522 0.3220 0.2946 0.2697 0.2472 0.2267
11 0.8693 0.8043 0.7224 0.6496 0.5847 0.5268 0.4751 0.4289 0.3875 0.3505 0.3173 0.2875 0.2607 0.2366 0.2149 0.1954
12 0.8874 0.7885 0.7014 0.6246 0.5568 0.4970 0.4440 0.3971 0.3555 0.3186 0.2858 0.2567 0.2307 0.2076 0.1869 0.1685
13 0.8787 0.7730 0.6810 0.6006 0.5303 0.4688 0.4150 0.3677 0.3262 0.2897 0.2575 0.2292 0.2042 0.1821 0.1625 0.1452
14 0.8700 0.7579 0.6611 0.5775 0.5051 0.4423 0.3878 0.3405 0.2992 0.2633 0.2320 0.2046 0.1807 0.1597 0.1413 0.1252
15 0.8613 0.7430 0.6419 0.5553 0.4810 0.4173 0.3624 0.3152 0.2745 0.2394 0.2090 0.1827 0.1599 0.1401 0.1229 0.1079
n 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32%
1 0.8547 0.8475 0.8403 0.8333 0.8264 0.8197 0.8130 0.8065 0.8000 0.7937 0.7874 0.7813 0.7752 0.7692 0.7634 0.7576
2 0.7305 0.7182 0.7062 0.6944 0.6830 0.6719 0.6610 0.6504 0.6400 0.6299 0.6200 0.6104 0.6009 0.5917 0.5827 0.5739
3 0.6244 0.6086 0.5934 0.5787 0.5645 0.5507 0.5374 0.5245 0.5120 0.4999 0.4882 0.4768 0.4658 0.4552 0.4448 0.4348
4 0.5337 0.5158 0.4987 0.4823 0.4665 0.4514 0.4369 0.4230 0.4096 0.3968 0.3844 0.3725 0.3611 0.3501 0.3396 0.3294
5 0.4561 0.4371 0.4190 0.4019 0.3855 0.3700 0.3552 0.3411 0.3277 0.3149 0.3027 0.2910 0.2799 0.2693 0.2592 0.2495
6 0.3898 0.3704 0.3521 0.3349 0.3186 0.3033 0.2888 0.2751 0.2621 0.2499 0.2383 0.2274 0.2170 0.2072 0.1979 0.1890
7 0.3332 0.3139 0.2959 0.2791 0.2633 0.2486 0.2348 0.2218 0.2097 0.1983 0.1877 0.1776 0.1682 0.1594 0.1510 0.1432
8 0.2848 0.2660 0.2487 0.2326 0.2176 0.2038 0.1909 0.1789 0.1678 0.1574 0.1478 0.1388 0.1304 0.1226 0.1153 0.1085
9 0.2434 0.2255 0.2090 0.1938 0.1799 0.1670 0.1552 0.1443 0.1342 0.1249 0.1164 0.1084 0.1011 0.0943 0.0880 0.0822
10 0.2080 0.1911 0.1756 0.1615 0.1486 0.1369 0.1262 0.1164 0.1074 0.0992 0.0916 0.0847 0.0784 0.0725 0.0672 0.0623
11 0.1778 0.1619 0.1476 0.1346 0.1228 0.1122 0.1026 0.0938 0.0859 0.0787 0.0721 0.0662 0.0607 0.0558 0.0513 0.0472
12 0.1520 0.1372 0.1240 0.1122 0.1015 0.0920 0.0834 0.0757 0.0687 0.0625 0.0568 0.0517 0.0471 0.0429 0.0392 0.0357
13 0.1299 0.1163 0.1042 0.0935 0.0839 0.0754 0.0678 0.0610 0.0550 0.0496 0.0447 0.0404 0.0365 0.0330 0.0299 0.0271
14 0.1110 0.0985 0.0876 0.0779 0.0693 0.0618 0.0551 0.0492 0.0440 0.0393 0.0352 0.0316 0.0283 0.0254 0.0228 0.0205
15 0.0949 0.0835 0.0736 0.0649 0.0573 0.0507 0.0448 0.0397 0.0352 0.0312 0.0277 0.0247 0.0219 0.0195 0.0174 0.0155
n = Number of years
6
The idea of present value can be applied to both inflows and outflows. As an
example of outflow, assume that in five years’ time you have to meet a bill of £1.
You can meet it by investing £0.62 now (at 10% interest). The outflow of £1 in five
years’ time can be equated to an outflow of £0.62 now, or that the present value
is –£0.62 (the minus indicates the direction of cash flow). As an example of an
inflow, suppose that you were to receive £1 in five years’ time. You would be
justified in regarding the present value of this amount as +£0.62, since you could
match this future receipt by investing £0.62 now.
A manufacturing company can regard its future inflows and outflows from a
project in the same way. If its IRR (internal rate of return) is 10%, then an
anticipated fuel bill of £5000 in year 5 of the project, for instance, should be
discounted and called a cash flow with a PV (present value) of –£(0.6209 × 5000)
= –£3104.50, because, in order to meet this outflow, £3104.50 can be invested
now in the company’s production resources to meet this bill. Similarly, an income
of £5000 through the sale of finished goods in five years’ time can be equated to
an investment of £3104.50 now. Such a future receipt will have a PV of
+£3104.50.
Of course, the argument applied to a single future payment or receipt also applies
to the stream of revenues and costs encountered by the firm in the course of a
project.
The net discounted sum of such streams is called the net present value (NPV).
(There are tables showing cumulative discounting factors for costs/revenues
expected to have the same values for the life of a project.)
Earlier we considered a proposal with an IRR of 10%, the company in question
obtaining loans from the money market at 10% interest rate. As pointed out, such
a proposal will not make a profit, i.e. its NPV will be zero. If the performance of
the firm could be enhanced, then a positive NPV would appear, which represents
the PV of money available as dividends for shareholders, or which can be
retained for use in other proposals.
For investment purposes, then, the decision rule is that only proposals which
show a positive NPV should be accepted.
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Year Net cash flow Discount factors NPV
(£) (£)
0 (100 000) 1.0000 (100 000)
1 45 000 0.9091 40 909
2 35 000 0.8264 28 924
3 20 000 0.7513 15 026
4 20˚000 0.6830 13 660
5 15 000 0.6209 9 313
Total net present value of proposal net cash flows 7 832
The only difficult part of the NPV calculation is establishing the financing cost rate
(or the required rate of return) for the proposal. Companies often are not sure
exactly what will be the financing cost of the funds needed for the investment,
especially when a mix of sources of funds is involved. To overcome this difficulty,
you should find the IRR implied by the cash flow – this calculates what rate of
return a proposal will generate and management can then decide whether this
rate is adequate for their purposes.
In other words, what discount rate will give discount factors which reduce the
values of the positive net cash flows in years 1 through 5 to exactly £100 000 in
total?
The answer is found by trial and error using progressively higher discount rates
until the NPV is reduced to zero, or nearly zero. In the example above, the IRR
works out to 14%, as shown below.
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Year Net cash flow Discount factors NPV
(£) (£)
0 (100 000) 1.0000 (100 000)
1 45˚000 0.8772 39 474
2 35 000 0.7695 26 933
3 20 000 0.6750 13 500
4 20 000 0.5921 11 842
5 15 000 0.5194 7 791
NPV of proposal net cash flows (460)
This means that our sample proposal is worth implementing if management will
accept a rate of return of less than 14% per annum (which they might well do if,
for example, it were possible to finance the proposal from funds costing, say,
12% per annum).
The IRR method is not infallible, and it is not always possible to judge the relative
viability of proposals by ranking their IRRs. It is much better to rank proposals by
their NPVs under a given rate of interest, if this is possible.
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• Provision of services, associated
Appendix processes
• Installation costs
Checklist of costs
• Dismantling, renovation, relocation
1 Land and building costs
• Hire of special equipment
• Purchase, site clearance, provision
of access and workroads • Retooling
10
• Salary and wage costs and related • Design work
overheads
• Patenting of new products
• Changes to remuneration systems
• Transport and other costs arising
• Changes in working practices from geographic changes
• Extended supply/manufacturing
lead-times
• Increased work-in-progress
• Materials wastage
• Publicity measures
• Security measures
11
Checklist of savings 4 Materials
• Reduction in usage of direct
1 Land and buildings materials
• Sale of land and buildings
• Reduction in usage of indirect
• Vacation of land and buildings (i.e. materials
saving of rent and rates)
• Reduction of wastage
• Subletting of land and buildings
12