NMRF/PR/1/2008

Economic Impact Assessment of

Agro-Meteorological Advisory
PROJECT REPORT

Service of NCMRWF

L.S.Rathore and Parvinder Maini

October 2008

This is an Internal Report from NCMRWF.

Permission should be obtained from the NCMRWF to quote from this report.

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

Ministry of Earth Sciences
A-50, Sector 62, NOIDA – 201307, INDIA
Please cite this report as given below:

L.S.Rathore and Parvinder Maini, 2008: “Economic Impact Assessment of Agro-

Meteorological Advisory Service of NCMRWF", Report no. NMRF/PR/01/2008,
104pp, Published by NCMRWF, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, A-50
Institutional Area, Sector- 62, NOIDA, UP, INDIA 201 307.

Front Cover:

Front cover shows a paddy field and a farmer

 Project Report

on

ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF

AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL ADVISORY SERVICE OF

NCMRWF

L.S.Rathore & Parvinder Maini

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

Ministry of Earth Sciences
Government of India

October 2008
Contributed by:
Rahul Nigam, Sunil Kaushik, Girdhar Dewal; GSLHV Prasada Rao; M.B. Rajegowda;
S.N.Pasupalak; V.Geethalakshmi; H.R. Patel; Surender Singh; V U M Rao; D. Raji
Reddy; Surendra Singh; O.P. Gill; A.S.Rao; R.S. Singh; Gautam Saha; K.K.Gill; H.S.
Kushwaha; R.N.Sabale; S.R. Patel; Parminder Kaur Baweja; Mr. Manoj Lunagaria;
Vivekananda MB; Anupama Baliarsingh; P. Maheswari; Manoj Kr Tripathi; G.Sreenivas;
Deependra Singh; Bhagirath Singh; D.S. Shekhawat; Nukal Mandal; Ledang Lepcha;
Gurwinder Singh; Amod Kumar; B.I. Karande; Somnath Choudhury; Jagdish Thakur; M.
V.Sudheesh; N. Manikandan and scientists of NCMRWF
 CONTENTS

Page
Message v
Foreword vi
Preface vii
Comments ix
Project Details 1-2
1 Introduction 3
2 NCMRWF and its Agrometeorological services 3-12
(a) Mandate 3
(b) NCMRWF's operational weather forecast system 4
(c) Location Specific forecast from T80/L18 model 5
(d) Agrometeorological Advisory Service of NCMRWF 8
(e)Dissemination of forecast & bulletin 9
(f) Feedback mechanism 11
(g) Verification of Location Specific Forecast issued to AAS units 11
3 Theoretical Framework of the study 14-28
(a) Why economic impact studies? 14
(b) Agromet Impact Study Paradigm 15
(c) Preliminary work 16
(d) Benefits or expectations from these studies 16
(e) Objective of the study 17
(f) Concept of the study 18
(g) Impact Assessment Analysis Framework 18
(h) Sample selection 19
(i) Survey & the questionnaire 20
(j) Crops selected by the units 21
(k) Format of the questionnaire/ Farm Survey schedule 21
4 Survey results of socio-economic features of farmers 29-33
(a) Age group of farmers 29
(b) Educational level of farmers 30
(c) Size of holding 30
(d) Major crops grown by the selected farmers in the 10 years 31
5. Survey results of economic impact of AAS (Quantity 33-92
and Price)
(a)Cereals 34-50
Rice 34
Wheat 45
(b) Millets 50-54
Finger Millet/ Ragi 50
Pearl Millet/ Bajra 52

ii
 (c) Vegetables 55-66
Palak 55
Tomato 57
Capsicum 62
Onion 63
Potato 65
(d) Cash crops 67-75
Cotton 67
Jute 72
Tobacco 74
(e) Oil Seeds : Mustard 76-79
Mustard 76
(f) Pulses 80-85
Gram 80
Redgram/Tur 82
Field Bean 84
(g) Fruits 86-92
Banana 86
Coconut 89
Peach & Apricot 91
6. Survey results on "Willingness to pay for the Service" 93
7. Summary 93
8. Other accomplishments of the study 96
9. Limitations of the study 97
10. Scope for future work 98
10. References 100
11. Annexure-I 101
12. Annexure-II 104

iii
 Preface

Agriculture in India depends heavily on weather and climate conditions. Weather

forecasts are useful for decisions regarding crop choice, crop variety, planting/harvesting
dates, and investments in farm inputs such as irrigation, fertilizer, pesticide, herbicide etc.
Hence, improved weather forecast based agromet advisory service greatly helps farmers
to take advantage of benevolent weather and mitigate the impacts of malevolent weather
situation.
Medium range weather forecast based agro-meteorological advisory service of
NCMRWF strives to improve and protect agricultural production, which is crucial for
food security of the country. The weather forecast and advisories have been helping the
farming community to take advantage of prognosticated weather conditions and form the
response strategy. On many occasions Agro-Meteorological Field Units have reportedly
saved the crop from unfavourable weather condition. Also the service, on many
instances, helped farmers over different regions to minimize crop losses as a result of
extreme weather conditions. Such reports were included in the Annual Progress Reports
submitted by the Agro-Advisory Service (AAS) units as well as discussed during
different review meetings of the project. But these were sporadic cases and could not be
inter-compared mainly due to non uniform use of the methodology. Hence, a project
entitled "“Economic Impact of AAS of NCMRWF” was formulated and launched in
November 2003 to assess the use and value of the service, with a view not only to assess
the economic impact of the service but also to assess its usage pattern and identify
strengths and weaknesses to further improve it.
The case studies include estimates for both perfect and imperfect forecasts. From
a practical perspective, perfect forecasts are an unrealistic expectation, and on the other
hand the less accurate forecasts also help farmers to determine farm management action
and add information for decision making. Also, reporting a range of advisories which are
based on weather forecasts with lower skill levels is also helpful in determining the
degree of accuracy that is needed to further improve the service. Most of the economic
evaluations of weather forecasts based advisories presented in the report are based on
comparison of a set of information obtained from users against non-users and recorded at
the individual farm level, on a per hectare basis. Majority of these studies, base the value
of weather forecasts on precipitation and temperature forecasts which can aid in
numerous farm level decision making strategies.
Assessing impacts of weather forecast application in farm management sector is a
stupendous task. The task becomes even more challenging if one is attempting to quantify
the value of weather forecast based agro-advisories. It was difficult to consider all crop
and all agro-climatic situations, hence a conscious decision was taken to undertake the
study at 15 representative sites covering principal crops. The project was implemented at
15 AAS units. The study period was spread over three years comprising of 3 Kharif and 3
Rabi seasons. National Centre for Agriculture Economics and Policy Research (NCAP),
who was engaged as consultant for the project, helped to formulate the study plan,
including devising sampling method, preparation of questionnaire, monitoring its
implementation and data analysis. The Nodal Officers at the AAS units have carried out
the study with utmost enthusiasm and zeal.

vii
 We are thankful to Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and; Secretary,
Department of Science & Technology (DST); Dr AK Bohra, Head, NCMRWF for
guiding and supporting the project. We take this opportunity to acknowledge the support
rendered by Director General of Meteorology, IMD, Integrated Finance Divisions of DST
as well as MoES and Sh Shmbhu Singh, Director, DST, for rendering support from time
to time. We profusely thank all the Nodal Officers, Technical Officers, the Project
Scientists at all 15 units and Dr. Rahul Nigam, Shri. Sunil Kaushik & Dr. Giridhar Dewal
(Junior Research Fellows) who worked hard to accomplish this study. We also thank all
the other officers, staff members and supporting personnel of NCMRWF whose names
may not appear explicitly but have contributed directly or indirectly towards the
preparation of this report.

L.S.Rathore
Parvinder Maini

viii
 Comments
Weather conditions play a significant role in reaping a good agricultural harvest.
Variable and uncertain weather is a pervasive fact that farmers have to cope up with, and
this has bearing on the livelihoods of the farm households. Timely weather information
enables the farmers to plan their farm operations in a way that not only minimizes the
costs and crop losses but also helps in maximizing the yield gains. NCMRWF is a
national agency that generates real-time weather forecast in the medium range using
advanced tools and techniques in the field of atmospheric science. These forecasts are
disseminated by NCMRWF to the farming community through its network of agro-
meteorological advisory service (AAS) units set up in 127 agro-climatic zones of the
country. Each AAS unit prepares and disseminates AAS bulletins based on the weather
forecasts received from NCMRWF and also provides user feedback as well.
The worthiness of investment for establishing a country-wide network of AAS
units can be justified only if the information disseminated by these units is utilized by the
farmers and is also helping them in making appropriate farm planning and management
decisions. There is a dearth of empirical evidences on how the weather forecasts might
contribute to the economic wellbeing of the farming community. In this context, the
proactive approach of NCMRWF to take up a study on economic impact assessment of
AAS is highly appreciable.
The study report begins with highlighting the significance of short and medium range
weather forecasts for making adjustments in daily farm operations, followed by detailed
description of how weather forecasts are generated and disseminated by the NCMRWF
through its AAS units. It is logical to think that dissemination of information in
vernacular languages to the farm households would have a higher degree of uptake by the
target groups. One of the noteworthy aspects of NCMRWF forecasts – AAS bulletins – is
that these are prepared and disseminated as location, season, weather, and crop-specific
farm level advisories in local languages. These also contain information related to
livestock, health and management decisions. This is made possible by the AAS units by
utilizing the expertise of its multi-disciplinary teams.
With sound theoretical framework and clear objectives, the report provides an
excellent impact assessment framework for capturing the farm level impacts of
information used by the farmers. Though there are a number of complex tools and
techniques for assessing the economic value of information use, the report rightly
emphasizes identifying and estimating farm level indicators to know the impact of AAS
advisories. This was necessary to effectively convey the results to the policy makers and
all other stakeholders for the use of AAS bulletins.
The report assesses the impact of AAS on cereals, millets, pulses, oilseeds, fruits &
vegetables and cash crops in 15 agro-ecological zones selected for the study. It is
interesting to note that in most of the cases, use of AAS advisories resulted in decline in
the cost of cultivation upto 25% for the study crops. In some cases, cost of cultivation did
increase upto 10% as a result of follow up action on AAS advisories, but this was more
than offset by the consequent increase in net returns upto 83%, with a modal value of
20%. The major crops which benefited most from the use of AAS service are paddy,
wheat, pearl millet and fruits and vegetables. This proves the usefulness of AAS
advisories. This also endorses the need for dissemination of AAS information to farmers
on a wider scale thereby convincing them about its positive impacts on a sustainable

ix
basis. Equally important but the most challenging task would be to enhance the accuracy
of weather forecast and to make the AAS more useful and demand-driven for the farm
households.
The study is a significant contribution on the use and economic impact of weather
forecast. However, aggregating the impact assessment results to the level of agro-
ecological zone would have added to the utility of the report. Overall, the report will
serve as a benchmark to take up further studies on impact of AAS services covering all
the agro-ecological regions of the country and also seeking more partners, including
private agencies. The suggestions made will be useful not only to the agency and
researchers, but also to the policy makers for coping up with adverse climatic conditions
and designing suitable strategies for a vibrant agricultural sector.
The report is well organized and reads well. However, to make it more compact,
detailed results and survey questionnaire can be presented in an Annexure.
The present study covered 15 AAS units, which were more active in dissemination of
AAS. It would be useful to extend such a study by including more AAS.
The future study can also improve analytical rigour, both in terms of the indicators
and analysis. For example, cost/loss analysis would be very useful to assess the real
economic value of weather forecast.
Also, more caution may be exercised while attributing the changes in costs, returns
and yields to the use of weather forecast, and assessing the statistical significance of
changes in cost, yield, etc.
The report should be published and disseminated widely.

Dr. Suresh Pal, Dr. Harbir Singh, Dr. Anjani Kumar,

Consultants,
National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research
DPS Marg, Pusa, New Delhi – 110 012

x
 Project Details
Title: Economic Impact Assessment of Agrometeorological Advisory
Services (AAS) of NCMRWF
1.
Name of Unit Scientist Involved State Agroclimatic zone
Anand Mr. H.R. Patel; Mr. Gujarat Middle Gujarat Zone-3
Manoj Lunagaria
Bangalore Dr. M.B. Rajegowda; Karnataka Eastern Dry Zone
Mr. Vivekananda MB
Bhubaneswar Dr. Pasupalak; Mrs. Orissa East and South Eastern
Anupama Baliarsingh Coastal Plain Zone of
Orissa
Coimbatore Dr.V. Geethalakshmi; Tamil Nadu Western Zone of Tamil
Miss. P. Maheswari Nadu
Hisar Dr Surender Singh Haryana Western Zone of
Dr V U M Rao; Mr. Haryana
Manoj Kr Tripathi
Hyderabad Dr. D. Raji Reddy Andhra Southern Telangana
Dr. G.Sreenivas Pradesh zone
Jaipur Dr. Surendra Singh; Rajasthan Semi Arid Eastern
Dr. O.P. Gill; Plain Zone (IIIa) of
Mr.Deependra Singh Rajasthan State
Jodhpur Dr. A.S.Rao; Dr. R.S. Rajasthan Arid plains of western
Singh; Mr. Bhagirath Rajasthan
Singh; Mr. D.S.
Shekhawat
Kalyani Dr. Gautam Saha; Mr. West Bengal New Alluvial Zone
Nukal Mandal; Mr.
Ledang Lepcha
Ludhiana Dr. K.K.Gill; Punjab Central Plain Zone of
Mr.Gurwinder Singh Punjab
Pantnagar Dr H.S. Kushwaha; Uttaranchal Tarai and Bhabar Agro
Dr. Amod Kumar - climatic Zone
Pune Dr. R.N.Sabale; Maharashtra Plain zone of
Mr.B.I. Karande; Maharashtra
Raipur Dr. S.R. Patel; Mr. Chhatisgarh Chhattisgarh Plain
Somnath Choudhury
Solan, Mrs. Parminder Kaur Himachal Sub-Humid, Sub-
Baweja; Mr. Jagdish Pradesh Tropical Zone of HP
Thakur
Trichur Dr. GSLHV Prasada Kerala Central zone
Rao; M. V.Sudheesh
N. Manikandan

1
2 P.I. of the project Dr. L. S.Rathore
& Coordinator Scientist G & Advisor MoES
3 Co-PI of the Dr. (Mrs.) Parvinder Maini
project & Scientist Scientist E, NCMRWF
Incharge
4 JRF's associated Dr. Rahul Nigam, Mr. Sunil Kaushik, Dr. Girdhar Dewal
with the project
5 Consultants Dr. Suresh Pal, Dr. Anjani Kumar, Dr. Harbir Singh, National
Centre for Agriculture Economics & Policy Research
6 Implementing Implementing Institutions
Institution(s) and
other collaborating  Anand Agricultural University, Anand
Institution(s):  Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Hyderabad
 Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswa Vidyalaya , Kalyani
 CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar
 Central Arid Zone Research Institute, Jodhpur
 Dr Y S Parmar University of Horticulture & Forestry, Solan
 G. B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar
 Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur
 Kerala Agricultural University , Thrissur
 Mahatma Phule Krishi Vidyapeeth, CASAM, Pune
 National Centre for Agricultural Economics & Policy Research
(NCAP), ICAR
 Orissa University of Agriculture & Technology, Bhubaneswar
 Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana
 Rajasthan Agricultural University,Durgapura, Jaipur
 Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore
 University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore
7 Name of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
funding agency: (NCMRWF)
with sanction NMRF/16/15-2003 dated 3rd Nov 2003
number and date
8 Date of November, 2003
commencement
9 Planned date of 31st October, 2006
completion
10 Actual date of 31st March, 2007
completion

2
1. Introduction

Compared to various other sectors of economy, agriculture is unique, whose

output is largely dependent on weather conditions. The degree of success of agriculture
production and its economics is determined to a significant extent by how well weather
conditions corresponding to the optimal requirements of the crop are best exploited to
raise the crops. Also, how effectively adverse weather conditions, which cause moisture,
thermal, wind, radiation and biotic stress impeding growth and development of crop are
managed to minimize their adversity. Further to this, it also depends on management
aspects of preventing the crops from severe weather conditions.
Ideally, technical progress in agriculture should reduce overall dependence on
weather and climate. But the link between yield and weather/climate does not seem to be
decreasing. The effects of meteorological conditions are most pronounced on high-
yielding varieties of crop with increased sensitivities to environmental conditions,
requiring maximum optimization of water, air, thermal and nutritional conditions. The
biological potential of the plants manifests itself best in favorable conditions and is
severely reduced when conditions are adverse. This results in large fluctuations in annual
crop yields whose scale exceeds the increase in yields from the growth in agriculture.
For this reason, the role of agrometeorological information is increasing. Using
information on the effect of weather and climatic factors on agricultural productivity in
an educated manner can not only reduce damage, but can also make it possible to obtain
additional yield without significant financial outlays. Thus, the weather forecast based
agro-advisories assumes considerable importance for agricultural activities.
For effective planning and management of agricultural practices such as selection
of cultivar, sowing, need-based application of fertiliser, pesticides, insecticides, efficient
irrigation and harvest, weather forecasts in all temporal ranges are desirable.Weather
forecast in short and medium ranges greatly contribute towards making short-term
adjustments in daily agricultural operations which minimize losses resulting from adverse
weather conditions and improve yield and quantity and quality of agricultural
productions.

2. NCMRWF and its Agro-meteorological services

(a) Mandate

During April-May 1983, unusual persistent cloudiness resulted in excessive losses

of wheat crop. Former Prime Minister (Late) Smt Indira Gandhi suggested serious
examination of variations and fluctuations in weather and exploration of ways and means
to adjust the cropping pattern according to likely weather conditions. The apex committee
set up to examine these aspects, recommended setting up a National Centre for Medium
Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in the country having capability to forewarn
farmers several days in advance. Government of India established the NCMRWF under
Department of Science & Technology (DST) in early 1988 in mission mode with the
following mandate;

 Development of global and regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP)

models for forecasting weather in medium range (3-10 days) time scale taking full

3
 advantage of existing and concurrent developments both in India and abroad in
the field of atmospheric science
 Set-up a state-of-the-art supercomputing infrastructure to develop suitable NWP
models to issue medium range weather forecasts
 To inform and guide the farmers in advance to undertake various farming
activities based on the expected weather
 Set-up agro meteorological advisory service (AAS) units, each unit representing
one of the 127 agro climatic zones spread all over India, to prepare/ issue/
disseminate AAS Bulletins based on weather forecasts and to provide user
feedback as well
 Set-up a stable/fast dedicated communication network with AAS units

(b) NCMRWF's operational weather forecast system

To meet the above objectives, NCMRWF has established a Global Data

Assimilation and Forecasting System (GDAFS). This mainly consists of four components
viz. (i) data processing, (ii) quality control, (iii) objective analysis (spectral statistical
interpolation scheme) and (iv) forecast model.
The atmosphere being always in motion, mathematical equations that describe the
hydrodynamical and thermodynamical properties of the fluid are utilised to describe its
state. These equations are solved in steps of small increments of time, repeatedly to
obtain the future state of the atmosphere in the desired time scale. To determine the future
state of the atmosphere one needs to know the initial state of the atmosphere at any given
point of time. The initial state is determined by a set of meteorological observations,
which are taken both at surface and at different vertical levels in the atmosphere.
Forecasting beyond short range necessitates the use of meteorological data from all over
the globe to capture the movement and genesis of weather systems in medium range.
As part of common international agenda under the aegis of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), all member countries of the WMO take
meteorological observations at specified time and disseminate the same through Global
Telecommunication System (GTS) for mutual exchange. GTS has a real-time data flow
of more than 12000 surface stations, 1000 selected merchant ships and 1200 upper air
stations. Beside these data a huge volume of aircraft and satellite observations are
assimilated to define the initial condition of the atmosphere. Over India, in addition to the
conventional data obtained via GTS, which includes observations from over 230 synoptic
stations and 35-radio sonde observations, a substantial amount of non-GTS (non-
conventional) meteorological data is also acquired (Das Gupta & Rizvi, 2001). This
includes the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager, cloud motion winds from Kalpana
(Indian satellite), and Advanced TIROS (Television and Infrared Observation Satellite)
Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) data. In addition some local data from 25 surface
observatories and 3 upper air observatories located over north-west hilly regions of the
country are also assimilated in T80 forecast system. Integration of such a huge amount of
data in operational mode on real-time basis and producing the forecast in the medium
range time scale is a formidable task, which can be made possible only with the help of a
high speed computer. NCMRWF has the state of art supercomputers since 1988. The
latest supercomputer installed at NCMRWF is the Cray-X1 E with 64 processors.
All these observations are assimilated four times a day viz. 0000, 0600, 1200 and

4
1800 UTC. Global data assimilation & forecast system (GDAFS) operational at
NCMRWF is a six-hourly intermittent three-dimensional assimilation scheme at T80/L18
resolution along with a state of art global NWP model at same T80/L18 resolution.
GDAFS utilizes all data collected within ±3-h of the assimilation time and received
within a specified cut-off period (~ 12-h for 0000 UTC). After the data are processed and
quality checked, data analysis is performed. The Spectral Statistical Interpolation
analysis scheme used at NCMRWF is a three-dimensional multivariate analysis scheme
in which data is assimilated in every 6-hour cycle (starting at 0600 UTC) to generate the
initial conditions for the forecast model. The medium range forecast is then produced
using the initial conditions generated for 0000 UTC. Once the forecast is obtained, it is
post-processed to obtain location specific forecast. Figure 2.1 shows a schematic diagram
of the GDAFS operational at NCMRWF

(c) Location Specific forecast from T80/L18 model

Weather elements like cloud amount, rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum
temperature, wind speed and wind direction play an important role in agriculture and
other economic activities in India. Hence, their accurate prediction is essential to make
strategic decisions. The objective forecast for the above meteorological parameters is
directly obtained from T80/L18 model operational at NCMRWF and is called the direct
model output (DMO) forecast. However, their accuracy may be fairly low. One reason is
that the NWP models are not able to resolve the local orographic features because of the
various approximations under which they are developed. The other reason may be
attributed to the errors in the NWP models because of coarse representation of model
topography and deficiencies in model physics. The unique geographical location of India
with oceans on three sides and the Great Himalayas on the fourth adds to the
complexities.
Statistical-Dynamical models (SD) are developed to overcome this difficulty by
developing empirical relationships between the concurrent circulation, certain
thermodynamic quantities, and the resulting precipitation (Maini, 2006). The SD models
incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework. These
models provide a link between the raw output of a NWP model and weather parameters
that are required in operational forecasts.
The final local weather forecast for the surface weather parameters is obtained by
using information from these two types of objective forecasts and the prevailing synoptic
situation around the location of interest. A group of scientists then use the information
obtained above to prepare the final forecast to be disseminated to the farming community.
The final forecast is a blend of objective and subjective judgement of the forecast and is
hence called the man-machine mix approach (Kumar et al, 2000; Maini et al, 2004) . A
forecast table designed at NCMRWF specifically for giving forecast to the user
community is shown in Table 2.1.

5
 GTS DATA

RTH IMD

DATA RECEPTION AT NCMRWF

DATA PROCESSING & QUALITY CONTROL

06 12 18 00

ANALYSIS ANALYSIS ANALYSIS ANALYSIS

6 HR FCST 6 HR FCST 6 HR FCST

GLOBAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM

GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (7days forecast)

ARCHIVAL
Post Processing

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING TO LOCATION SPECIFIC

FORECAST DISSEMINATION TO USERS

Figure 2.1: Schematic diagram showing the global data assimilation and forecast system at
NCMRWF

6
Table 2.1. Forecast Table
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING
Station: Delhi Date:31- 7-2007 Time: 03 GMT
Coordinates: 28.58 N 77.20 E To
ALTITUDE: 229 meters NODAL OFFICER,AGRO ADVISORY SERVICE UNIT
BASED UPON 00GMT ANALYSIS FOR:30-7-2007 DELHI ,DELHI
SR WEATHER DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICAL FINAL
NO. PARAMETERS T-80 MODEL T-254 MODEL INTERPRETATION
31-7 1-8 2-8 3-8 31-7 1-8 2-8 3-8 30-7 31-7 1-8 2-8 31-7 1-8 2-8 3-8
48hr 72hr 92hr 120hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr

1 MSL PRESSURE hp 1000. 1000 . 999. 997 . 997. 997. 1000. 1000.

2 CL COVER okta E 0 0 0 0 7 8 8 8 3 4 4 6
M 0 0 0 0 8 8 8 8

PROB. OF PRECIP. 0.70 0.46 0.75 0.69 0 5 5 15

3 PRECIPITATIONmm 0.4 0.0 8.3 10.8 0.0 0.3 7.4 20.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.2
PPM eqn PRECIP. 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2

4 WIND SPEED kmph 7 7 5 5 7 15 10 14 5 5 4 4

5 WIND DIRECT.deg 158 160 161 157 101 109 124 111 160 160 160 160

6 MAX. TEMP. deg cel 36.2 36.3 35.8 35.5 43.6 41.3 33.2 31.4 34.0 35.6 35.3 35.3 1 0 -1 0
1.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 -1.3 -8.1 -1.8 1.6 -0.3 0.0

7 MIN. TEMP. deg cel 26.6 26.5 27.3 27.8 32.0 28.3 26.7 25.8 27.2 27.2 26.5 27.5 0 0 1 0
0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.5 -0.3 -3.7 -1.6 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 0.8

8 R.H. MAXIMUM(%) 79 80 83 89 55 78 86 93

9 R.H. MINIMUM(%) 32 43 45 49 25 29 56 68

WIND DIR. FREQ. 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.2 8.3 0.0 0.0 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE RAINFALL FORECAST
10 0---45 2.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 25.0 20.8 20.8 12.5 FOR NEXT WEEK:-
45---90 10.4 0.0 0.0 9.4 33.3 70.8 33.3 87.5
90---135 52.1 60.4 67.7 45.8 8.3 0.0 29.2 0.0
135---180 13.5 13.5 16.7 9.4 12.5 0.0 16.7 0.0 MODEL:T80: 62.5 t254: 62.7 mm , FINAL : 45mm
180---225 11.5 26.0 15.6 18.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
225---270 7.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
270---315 2.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
315---360

7
(d) Agrometeorological Advisory Service of NCMRWF
One of the main objectives of NCMRWF was to give weather-based agromet
advisories to the farming community. The NCMRWF in collaboration with the India
Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)
and State Agricultural Universities (SAUs) had been operating Agrometeorological
Advisory Service (AAS) at the scale of Agroclimatic Zone till March 2007. For this
NCMRWF was using the numerical weather prediction based forecasting system
operational at the centre. The country is divided into 127 agro-climatic zones with
each zone covering about 4-6 districts. Agromet co-ordination cells have been
working at ICAR and IMD to look after the requirements of project. SAUs have
appointed Nodal Officers for its smooth implementation. Agromet Advisory Bulletins
comprising of expert advice on crop, soils and weather are made available to the
farming community. The AAS set-up exhibits a multi-institutional multidisciplinary
synergy to render an operational service for the use of farming community.
Over the past decade and a half, NCMRWF established an impressive
infrastructure and also developed suitable methodologies for giving quantitative
medium range weather forecasting services. Starting with 5 units in 1991, the Centre
established 107 Agrometereological Advisory Services (AAS) Units in a phased
manner till 2007..
The AAS units are located within SAU headquarters, their regional research
stations and ICAR institutes. All these units were provided with annual Grand-in-Aid
and one manpower equivalent to a Technical officer to effectively disseminate the
Agromet Advisory Service and also to give its feedback to NCMRWF
AAS Units had been receiving weather forecast from NCMRWF on bi-weekly
basis (Tuesday and Friday). The forecast was issued for six parameters viz., cloud
amount (okta), precipitation (mm), wind speed (kmph), wind direction (degree),
maximum temperature (oC) and minimum temperature (oC), in quantitative terms for
next four days. In addition, the cumulative weekly precipitation (mm) was also
provided (Table 2.1)
The Nodal Officer in charge of the AAS Unit, generally an
Agrometeorologist, in co-operation with an inter-disciplinary group of agricultural
and extension specialists, such as, Plant Pathologists, Soil Scientists, Entomologists,
Horticulturists, Agronomists etc., formulated the agro advisories. These advisories
contained location specific and crop specific farm level advisories prepared in local
language containing description of prevailing weather, soil & crop condition, and
suggestions for taking appropriate measures to minimise the loss and also, optimise
input in the form of irrigation, fertiliser or pesticides. A format of AAS bulletin
devised at NCMRWF (NCMRWF/DST, 1999) shown in Table 2.2 had been
circulated to all the AAS units. This bulletin basically contained information on
weather: current and past week; crop information and weather based advisories. The
main stress was given to the preparation of advisories. Advisory content varied with
location, season, weather, crop condition, and local management practices. All units
were advised to take output from crop and pest disease models wherever possible.
This helped to increase the timeliness of spraying operations, irrigation applications,
fertilizer applications, etc. The advisories also served as an early warning function,
alerting producers to the implications of various weather events such as extreme
temperatures, heavy rains, floods, and strong winds.

8
 The entire framework of AAS, developed and successfully demonstrated by
NCMRWF has since been transferred to the India Meteorological Department(IMD)
under MoES for extending the service (in operational mode) to the districts under
these agro-climatic zones

Table 2.2 Format for AAB:

 Weather Information
o Weather summary of the preceding week or since last bulletin
including salient weather features like heavy rain, cyclones,
depressions, freezing temperatures etc.,
o Climatic normals for the week;
o Weather forecast,
o Crop Moisture Index, Drought severity index, etc., for the past weeks,
etc.

 Crop Information
o Type, state and phenological stage of crops;
o Information on pests and diseases; and
o Information on crop stresses.

 Advisory
o Crop-wise farm management information tailored to weather-sensitive
agricultural practices like sowing, irrigation scheduling, pest and
disease control operations, fertilizer application. It also contain,
special warnings for taking appropriate measures for saving crop from
malevolent weather, if any. Information on crop planning, variety
selection, selection of proper sowing/harvesting time etc. are included.
Location specific package and practices for cultivation of different
crops suitable for the agroclimatic zone are also provided
o Spraying conditions for insect, weed, or disease problems
o Problems related to animal health and their products.
o Wildfire rating forecasts in wildfire prone areas,
o Livestock management information for housing, health and nutrition,
etc..

(e) Dissemination of forecast and bulletin

For an effective communication, NCMRWF had provided all AAS units with
a fixed landline with STD facility, and a high-end personal computer with Internet
facility. The forecast was disseminated from NCMRWF to the AAS units on bi-
weekly basis through fax, phone and e-mail. The forecast tables were also uploaded
on the NCMRWF server for easy accessibility through the ftp server.
Once the weather based AAS bulletins were prepared by the AAS units these
AAS bulletins were disseminated to the farmers of the region through mass media,
such as T.V., All India Radio and Newspapers in vernacular language and also
through personal contact with the progressive farmers through extension workers. The
bulletin was also disseminated to the contact farmers in several villages by phone,
post, poster and hand delivery. Agricultural universities also conducted certain Public
Awareness programmes to educate farmers about usage of Agro advisories in the farm
9
operation through mass media such as TV, Radio, Press and also through Kisan Mela,
in which Nodal Officers of AAS units participate and make farmers aware about its
usage in their farming operations. Media plays a crucial role in the dissemination of
the AAS and can be taken as the nodal agency for effective outreach to the end users
that is the farmer. The service, after its transfer to IMD continues to be provided with
all these facilities by IMD for effective outreach. Figure 2.2 shows the complete flow
diagram of the Agrometeorological advisory service of NCMRWF
(NCMRWF/DST,1999)

Figure 2.2. AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ADVISORY SERVICE OF NCMRWF

The status of issue of forecast/Advisory till 2007, and dissemination of

advisories to the media is given in the following table:
Forecast issued to = 107 Units
Bi-weekly forecast issued to = 80 Units

10
No. of units issuing advisories = 105 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to News Papers = 93 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to AIR = 70 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to Doordarshan = 41 Units
No. of units Disseminating AABs to Cable TV = 28 Units

In addition to the above NCMRWF also prepared an All India composite

Agro-advisory bulletin in close collaboration with IMD with inputs from AAS units.
This national composite agromet-advisory bulletin is sent to all the concerned heads
of government agencies and also dispatched to the entire state government secretariat.

(f) Feedback mechanism

Periodic feedback on worthiness of forecast and usefulness of advisories is
also obtained by NCMRWF. This feedback is obtained weekly, monthly and also
annually. Feedback from selected farmers and Research & Development under
different SAU's are being documented on whether they have adjusted their day-to-day
farming operations in response to the advice laid in AAS and also on their additional
requirements. Annual review meetings are conducted for the evaluation of the use of
AAS and weather information. These meetings are held at different SAUs on rotation.
All nodal officers from the AMFU's, and scientists from NCMRWF, IMD, and ICAR
participate in this meet for the assessment of the performance of AAS units. Also,
further possible ways for improvement in the existing system are discussed.

(g) Verification of Location Specific Forecast issued to AAS units

In order to evaluate the skill of the forecasts issued to the AAS units, a
verification mechanism has been put in place wherein the verification is done by the
service provider (NCMRWF) as well as the user community (farmers). A uniform
verification procedure has been developed and circulated to all the AAS units.
Therefore rigorous verification of the forecast is done as a routine for all seasons.
Table 2.3 (a&b) gives the skill of forecast during the period of study (NCMRWF/DST
2005, 2006, 2007). The parameters considered here are rainfall, maximum/minimum
temperature. Here the skill of rainfall occurrence/non-occurrence is given in terms of
Ratio Score (RS) and HK Score(HKS) . The skill of maximum temperature (Tx) and
minimum temperature (Tn) is given in terms of correlation (CC) and RMSE. The
scores are mentioned in detail in Annexure-I. The verification is done during the two
main seasons namely; Kharif and Rabi for all the 15 units during the period of survey.
For evaluation of usability of forecast of quantitative precipitation and temperature an
error structure has been formulated and is given in Annexure-I.
It is seen from Table 2.3a that while the skill of Yes/No rainfall forecast is
around 90% during Rabi, it is around 69% in Kharif. Maximum temperature has a
correlation of 65-70% and an RMSE of 2-3oC in Kharif while in Rabi the correlation
is around 60%. On the other hand the correlation of minimum temperature forecast is
less in Kharif and more in Rabi season. It is around 50% in Kharif and around 65% in
Rabi season. On the other hand the RMSE of Tn is lower than Tx and is in the range of
1-2.5oC during both the seasons. The verification of wind speed, cloud cover shows
that both the parameters have reasonably good skill, but the wind direction forecast
needs improvement.

11
 Table 2.3a: Skill of forecast during the study period

STATION RAIN Tn Tx
RS HKS RMSE CC RMSE CC

Kharif
Anand 74 0.45 1.59 0.68 1.97 0.87
Bangalore 57 0.19 1.29 0.17 1.68 0.7
Bhubaneshwar 65 0.3 1.65 0.54 2.7 0.74
Hisar 75 0.38 2.61 0.55 2.7 0.6
Coimbatore 60 0.13 1.67 0.29 2.33 0.33
Hyderabad 56 0.24 1.53 0.64 2.54 0.81
Jaipur 62 0.25 2.49 0.51 3.13 0.6
Jodhpur 80 0.48 2.78 0.45 2.97 0.65
Ludhiana 70 0.31 2.61 0.6 3.69 0.53
Nadia 78 0.33 1.6 0.28 2.24 0.35
Pantnagar 72 0.56 1.85 0.39 2.63 0.77
Pune 67 0.2 1.21 0.54 1.88 0.54
Raipur 67 0.33 1.79 0.58 2.36 0.81
Solan 70 0.42 1.87 0.56 2.23 0.82
Thrissur 82 0.5 1.22 0.2 1.66 0.6
Rabi
Anand 92 0.37 2.35 0.69 1.54 0.8
Bangalore 84 0.25 1.94 0.64 1.64 0.37
Bhubaneshwar 98 0.41 2.35 0.32 1.93 0.41
Hisar 96 0.3 2.12 0.68 2.85 0.7
Coimbatore 87 0.42 1.89 0.58 1.89 0.61
Hyderabad 95 0.39 1.98 0.74 1.5 0.66
Jaipur 91 0.22 2.99 0.67 2.07 0.76
Jodhpur 96 0.32 2.34 0.69 1.68 0.74
Ludhiana 87 0.38 2.86 0.62 2.41 0.68
Nadia 93 0.74 2.4 0.61 2.64 0.51
Pantnagar 92 0.46 2.14 0.77 3.09 0.31
Pune 98 0.5 2.67 0.53 2.45 0.56
Raipur 94 0.41 2.43 0.52 2.5 0.6
Solan 87 0.56 2.13 0.77 2.86 0.69
Thrissur 89 0.22 1.31 0.62 1.76 0.22

The usability of the temperature and rainfall forecast is given in Table 2.3b. While in
the case of quantitative precipitation, the Rabi forecast (90-98%) is better than the
Kharif rainfall (60-80%), in temperature forecast it is seen that the usability of
temperature forecast is good in both the seasons with maximum temperature having
higher usability in Rabi (50-90%) and minimum temperature in Kharif (60-95%).

12
Table 2.3b: Usability of rainfall and temperature forecast during the study
period

Rain Tn Tx
Kharif season Percentage of Correct
(Monsoon Season)
Anand 66.78% 82.84% 70.89%
Bangalore 68.02% 97.61% 77.28%
Bhubaneshwar 54.34% 89.07% 58.58%
Hisar 88.89% 70.73% 65.61%
Coimbatore 85.88% 82.68% 75.21%
Hyderabad 55.87% 89.71% 70.33%
Jaipur 82.67% 71.31% 57.37%
Jodhpur 75.89% 75.23% 60.33%
Ludhiana 84.57% 61.51% 59.84%
Nadia 65.43% 84.03% 63.73%
Pantnagar 57.17% 56.94% 40.27%
Pune 61.35% 90.59% 75.13%
Raipur 67.44% 77.20% 65.99%
Solan 60.25% 78.78% 64.94%
Thrissur 66.44% 95.84% 87.50%
Rabi Season Percentage of Correct
(Winter Season)
Anand 99.23% 68.48% 89.34%
Bangalore 98.66% 74.67% 88.57%
Bhubaneshwar 98.65% 56.58% 71.25%
Hisar 95.77% 56.33% 58.62%
Coimbatore 95.95% 72.73% 85.19%
Hyderabad 96.11% 90.00% 87.30%
Jaipur 100.00% 62.07% 67.81%
Jodhpur 100.00% 65.49% 71.33%
Ludhiana 90.00% 59.77% 64.37%
Nadia 100.00% 53.33% 65.34%
Pantnagar 94.59% 56.25% 43.75%
Pune 100.00% 66.24% 87.50%
Raipur 96.34% 65.52% 79.31%
Solan 96.92% 65.38% 60.26%
Thrissur 100.00% 90.25% 82.98%

13
3. Theoretical framework of the study

(a) Why economic impact studies?

 User requirement
The types of economic decision which require agro- meteorological products
can be categorized according to three time scales:
o Long-term planning for agricultural development (rational allocation of
land, choice of crops, selection of species and varieties)
o Medium-term planning for the next season (choice of farming area, crop
varieties, etc.);
o Short-term decisions regarding imminent farming operations (choice of
optimal sowing and harvest dates, dates and quantities for fertilization,
dates and quantities for irrigation, etc.).
Each type of decision requires the appropriate meteorological information. In
the first of the three categories listed above, this will involve basic climatological data
and long-term forecasts. In the second case, it will involve seasonal forecasts,
monthly forecasts, and various agrometeorological forecasts on moisture availability,
yield etc. In the third case, it will involve short-term forecasts, medium-term
forecasts, and special recommendations for crop-growth. In the present study, the
problem has been addressed only to the third requirement of the user.
 Service requirement
Internal perspectives
o To establish the worthiness of the service: Economic impact has to be
carried out in order to know its potential benefits.
o Service credibility: Credibility is always closely linked to forecast
verification. Hence, economic impact studies need to be carried out to
establish credibility in the eyes of the potential users if optimum benefits
are to be derived from the marketing of the service.
o Service accountability or justification: Assessment of the service helps
justifying the costs and the ongoing need and existence of such a service.
External perspectives
o By quantifying the benefits of this service one comes to know the needs of
the users, their level of satisfaction and their further expectation.
Consequently the progressive user provides a positive feedback &
increased response of progressive users drive the service. The outcome
includes better services over time, services with better utility and most
likely with better-perceived accuracy. Secondly, through these interactive
educational initiatives, policy makers and other clients become sensitized
to and better informed about the value of these services, which results in
improved decision making.
National perspective
o On the national scale, more knowledgeable decision-making leads to
improved practices and attitudes, enhanced productivity, a more nationally
relevant economic society and more socially acceptable practices.

14
 (b) Agromet Impact Study Paradigm

In general it is difficult to assess the economic benefit of any advisory service

given to take measure against catastrophes or life threatening situations, but it is
possible to assess the economic benefit of the agrometeorological services
(Nicholls,1996). Although there does not exist any general simulation model for the
evaluation of the economic benefits of meteorological assistance to agriculture,
however three points can always be defined:
 evident effective benefit
 probable effective benefit
 theoretically maximum possible benefit
Figure 3.1 shows a schematic diagram to study the impact of agro-meteorological
information on agriculture

NCMRWF SAU/ICAR Farmer Impact

(AMFUs)

Weather AgroMet Awareness Changed -

Information Advisories Access Practice
Use/Decision Value
Action/Behavior Benefit

Meteorologist Ag. Scientist User Production

Figure 3.1: A schematic diagram to show the impact of agromet services

Weather information content which is part of the advisory bulletin should contain
information on what is going to happen (precipitation, temperature, cloud, wind) and
when is it going to happen at the given area of interest to the farmer. The information
is disseminated through mass media dissemination agencies including internet, Radio
/ TV and Phone/Fax.
Weather information is translated into farm level action oriented advice by the
agricultural scientists at AgroMeteorological Field Units. It contains weather based
advisories including time and method of sowing, time and amount of irrigation, time
and method of fertilizer/pesticide application etc.
Agriculture impacts include changes experienced by farmers that have
meaning or value positive (a benefit effect) or negative (an undesired effect) helping
them to decide selection of crop/variety, sowing/harvesting time, irrigation
management, fertilizer management, pest/disease management and other intercultural
operations. This formed the backbone of the economic impact study carried out by
NCMRWF in collaboration with the AAS units.

15
(c) Preliminary work

Once the outreach of the service and skill of the forecast was established, it
was pertinent to study the impact of the service in terms of economic gain/loss. It was
felt that an awareness of the economic value of agrometeorological information can
be of significant assistance in selecting decision-making strategies in agriculture.
Hence, AAS units were directed to assess the economic benefits accrued due to AAS.
Some of the units reported the benefits accrued by the farmers, but mostly in
qualitative terms.
The AAS units assessed the Economic Impact in their own way and the results
could not be inter-compared due to absence of uniform impact criteria. For example,
the farmers of Kovilpatti (Tamil Nadu) region adopted weather based advice of early
sowing of Sorghum, Cotton and Pulses as good rainfall was predicted during 3rd week
of September 1995 nearly 20 days before the normal date of commencement of
North-East monsoon rainfall. They received nearly 50% increase in yield in all the
three crops. On the other hand, the farmers of Pune region who could not follow the
advice on delayed onset of southwest monsoon faced complete failure of crop due to
inadequate moisture for germination. Farmers of Ludhiana could save 30% of the
total production of Potato and Tomato due to frequent and light irrigation of the crop
as the NCMRWF predicted occurrence of frost on account of considerable fall in the
minimum temperature. For Coimbatore, advisories on strong winds during July, 1995
have helped saving standing Banana crop worth Rs 10,000 per acre. The farmers of
Raipur could save up to Rs.5000/- in the case of Chilly and up to Rs 10,000/- in the
case of Potato per hectare due to skipping of one irrigation after heavy rainfall
forecast at crucial phenophase of the crops. Following the wind speed and direction
forecasts, they saved at least 20% cost of the insecticides. At Chennai, specific
instances have shown that by timely forecast of rainfall, farmers could prevent
spoilage of feed, chick mortality, coccidiosis, lung infection among birds and other
bacterial infections.
Although there existed some awareness about the impact of the weather based
agro advisories on the farming community, but there was lack of a clear and precise
understanding of the impact. Therefore there was a need to carry out this impact
assessment study using specified impact criteria and with a uniform pattern of study

(d) Benefits or expectations from these studies

Although the AAS units had been making concerted efforts to carry out
economic impact of the service provided by NCMRWF, yet an urgent need was felt to
put in more serious efforts and to have a uniform procedure for assessing the
economic impact of the service. Hence, to carry out a more extensive study DST
launched a pilot project entitled “Economic Impact of AAS of NCMRWF” in the year
2003. In order to have an evaluation of the AAS at different agroclimatic zones and
different weather conditions, 15 AAS units in different parts of the country were
chosen. The project was spread over three years covering 3 Kharif and 3 Rabi
seasons. National Centre for Agricultural Economics & Policy Research (NCAP) was
given consultancy for preparing concept note, questionnaire, methodology and final
review of the reports prepared by the AAS units/NCMRWF. NCMRWF on its part
16
was responsible for conceptualizing and executing the study, providing grants and
bringing out the final report. Therefore, it was envisaged that the project
 Will give an insight into forecasting skill and reach of the service and also its
economic value in terms of money,
 Will help in taking better decision. Application of these methods for assessing
economic and social benefits can produce information leading to the efficient
production and supply of services,
 Will help in cultivar selection, their dates of sowing/planting/transplanting,
dates of intercultural operations, dates of harvesting and also performing post
harvest operations,
 Will give site-specific forecast information and corresponding advisories that
will help maximize output and avert crop damage or loss. The service will also
help growers anticipate and plan for chemical applications, irrigation
scheduling, disease and pest outbreaks and many more weather related
agriculture-specific operations,
 Will give agromet advisories that will increase profits by consistently
delivering actionable weather information, analysis and decision support for
farming situations such as:
o To manage pests through forecast of relative humidity, temperature
and wind,
o Progressive water management through rainfall forecasts,
o To protect crop from thermal stress through forecasting of extreme
temperature conditions.
Above all, along with many other situations the study will help increase the crop
protection, hence knowledge needs to improve the bottom line, protect resources and
preserve the environment.

(e) Objective of the study

The prime intent of the study was to assess use and value of the agro-
advisories which are based on four day quantitative weather forecast for important
meteorological elements at the scale of the agroclimatic zone. It encompasses the
aspects related to the skill of weather forecast (Katz & Murphy,1997), quality and
relevance of the forecast based advisories, acceptance by the user community, user
satisfaction leading to its consumption and ultimately quantifying the benefits/losses
accrued due to implementing the advisories for managing a wide spectrum of crop
situations spread over different agroclimatic zones of the country. It also includes the
related components of AAS such as dissemination of the bulletins, out reach of the
service, and capacity of the user community in adapting the advisories by different
sections of the society under varying education, gender & socio-economic classes.
The prime objectives are as under;
 Adoption of the forecast by the user community and its realization. It further
helps to understand the linkages between information, users and impacts
 To assess the effectiveness and potential benefits of Agro-Advisory services
by taking into account the AAS contact and non-contact farmers.
 To work out weather based farming strategies based on the economic impact
of Agromet Advisory Services.
 To account and assess the needs of the farming community for increasing the
farm produce.
17
  To assess the economic impact of the AAS services in various crops under
different ago climatic conditions.
The Economic Impact of AAS, however does not cover the evaluation of the
capacity and methods of weather forecasts, which is beyond the scope of this study.
The impact assessment framework entails reliability and adequacy of weather
forecasts, mechanism of flow of weather information, extent of use of weather by
farmers and economic and other impacts.

(f) Concept of the study

The concept of the study is based on the

 Assessment of ability of forecast based advisory to influence farmers’
decisions on
o Selection of cultivar
o Selection of optimum sowing time
o Conducting farm operation in tune with weather forecasts leading to
energy saving, enhancing the efficacy of inputs such as fertilizer,
pesticides etc.
o Cutting costs of agriculture inputs such as pesticide, irrigation, fertilizer,
herbicide etc.
o Saving of crop from adverse weather
 Find out Economic and other benefits due to use of forecast in farm
management decisions
 Determine the saving the crop from adverse weather
 Assessing impact of favorable weather on overall growth, development and
final yield of the crop.

(g) Impact Assessment Analysis Framework

A number of approaches and methods have been used in the literature to

assess the value and impact of weather forecast. Important among these are
assessment of the value of weather forecast, economic benefits to farmers or
individual farms, and economic and social benefits for a sector or country as a whole.
The cost-loss analysis, expected utility approach, stochastic programming approach,
simulation model, economic surplus, and computable general equilibrium model are
most frequently used methods.
The selection of analytical method is determined by objective of the study,
availability of required data and computational skills. Since main objective of the
study is to assess the adequacy, use and impact of the medium range weather
forecasts, an analytical method focusing more on farm level impact was considered to
be most appropriate. In the present study, the selection of method is also influenced
by the fact that policy makers can easily understand the results and the method can be
applied with moderate analytical skill. Therefore, NCAP proposed use of simple
farm-level indicators for the impact assessment. The impact assessment framework
proposed included estimation of accuracy of the forecast, adequacy and reliability of
the forecast from farmers’ perspective, use of the forecast, and farm-level impacts.

18
 Table 3.1 describes the framework to be followed for assessing the usefulness of
weather forecast through the survey and Table 3.2 gives the economic impact
indicators to be considered

Table 3.1: Use of Weather Forecast

Impact area Indicator
Perception of stakeholders Reliability, dissemination, adequacy, value
addition
Awareness about AAS Farmers knowing AAS (%)
Usefulness-farmers’ perception Farmers considering it useful (%)

Use of information Farmers using weather forecasts (%)

Table 3.2: Economic Impact Indicators

Parameters Indicators
Yield Difference in yield of AAS and non-AAS farmers

Cost  Difference between total paid out cost (per acre) of AAS and
non-AAS contact farmers
 Changes in cost per unit of output

Profitability  Difference in return over paid out cost (Rs/acre) of AAS and
non-AAS contact farmers
Utility Increase in utilization by farmer for maneuvering cultural
operations

(h) Sample selection

Considering the importance of the sampling in the study, care was taken to
identify the sample which is true representative of the class. Thus the farmers were
selected based on their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational
background, size of the family, types of crops grown. Section 4 gives the
demographic details of the samples chosen by each unit. As it was difficult to collate
information from a very large or not-interested farmers the sampling was done based
on the following criterion.
 15 AAS units out of a total 127 were chosen based on the existence of an
effective weather based agro-advisory service of NCMRWF at the unit for
quite some time.
 From each unit, a representative district where AAS Unit was operating was
selected for conducting the farm survey. The selection of the district was
based on its similarity with the agro climatic zone in terms of cropping pattern,
irrigated area, rainfall and soil type.

19
  A list of villages, from the selected district, having AAS contact farmers was
prepared and two villages were chosen randomly from among these.
 In each selected villages, a list of all the AAS contact farmers was prepared by
category of their size of holding (small, medium, large), educational
background, family size, type of crops grown etc. A total of 20 farmers were
then selected using random sampling technique.
 Thus a sample size of 40 AAS contact farmers was selected from the 2
villages.
Similarly, a list of villages having no AAS contact farmer from the same district were
prepared and two villages were chosen. From the two selected villages, a list of all the
farmers (non- AAS contact farmers) was prepared based on the criteria described
above. 20 farmers were then selected by random sampling from each village. Thus in
summary. four villages comprising of 2 villages of AAS contact farmers and 2
villages of non-AAS contact farmers were selected at each of the 15 units chosen for
the study. 20 AAS and 20 non-AAS contact farmers were selected from each village,
thus making a sample of 80 farmers (40 AAS and 40 non-AAS).
In order to keep the data of manageable size, information on important crops (at
least one each for Kharif and Rabi, but not more than four crops was selected for
taking detailed information on use and impact of weather forecasts. To ensure
reliability of the results, data has been collected for 3 Rabi and 3 Kharif seasons viz.,
Kharif 2004, 2005 and 2006 and for Rabi 2003-04, Rabi 2004-05 and Rabi 2005-06.
As most of the units could not collect the data for Rabi 2003-04, hence the project
was extended by 6 months to accommodate the Rabi season of 2006-07.
(i) Survey & the questionnaire
The sampling method was designed to work directly with the users of forecast
and advisory information, to be able to more meaningfully assess credible cost/loss
estimates. The important issue was to develop effective and meaningful base for
assessing impacts of cost-cutting yield and enhancing decisions. Cost-cutting
measures can take a variety of forms, some of which include saving in irrigation,
reducing the loss of fertilizer, reducing the pesticide applications. To obtain
quantitative information, working relationships between AMFUs and user farmers
were set up through periodic visits. Through such visits input from the farmers were
obtained about use and application of the advisory bulletins through pre-devised
questionnaire. Thus the sample survey is not independently conducted by the agency
which provided the questionnaire and therefore a certain amount of bias in inevitable.
This has been highlighted in Section 9 as one of the limitations that has been
encountered during the study.
The AAS units gave special attention to date of sowing, planting, harvesting,
spraying, irrigation and tillage operation. Due attention was paid to collecting
information on the adoption of advisory by the farmers during such operations and the
benefit/loss accrued by the farmers by following/not-following advisories related to
such crucial operations.
Based on the above methodology and impact assessment framework, the survey
is done using three aspects
 Socio- Economic Status: The socio -economic status of the farmers is
surveyed using the queries related to the following in the questionnaire
o Family structure
o Literacy among farmers
20
 o Size of land holding
o Cropping pattern
o Traditional Methods used
o Mode of irrigation
o Awareness of AAS
o Mode of receipt of AAS
o Weather parameters required
o Satisfaction from service (reliability, timely availability, expected
benefits, frequency)
o Willingness to pay
 Quantity analysis of inputs used
o Quantity of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide
o No: of Labour (Human, machine)
o No: of Irrigations
 Price analysis of inputs used
o Price of Seed, Fertilizer, Pesticide
o Cost of labour (Human, machine)
o Cost of Irrigation
o Cost of product/byproduct
o Any other associated cost

(j) Crops selected by the units

The major crops chosen for the study are as under

o Food grains: Wheat, Rice, Millets, Maize, Red Gram and Chickpea
o Oilseeds: Mustard;
o Cash crops: Cumin, Jute, Cotton and Tobacco
o Fruit crops: Apricot, Peach and Banana
o Vegetables: Tomato and Spinach.

(k) Format of the questionnaire / Farm Survey schedule

Date of interview (dd/mm/yyyy): Schedule Number:

Part I. General Information

1. Name of the AAS unit: (V1)

2. Name of agro-climatic zone: ____________________ (V2)

3. Name of district: _____________________ (V3)

4. Name of sample village: _____________________ (V4)

5. Name of farmer (Decision-maker): _____________________ (V5)

21
6. Farmers’ age (years): ________________ (V6)

7. Sex: Male (1)/ Female (2): ________________ (V7)

8. Years of schooling: _________________ (V8)

9. Persons (adults) dependant on agriculture: _________________ (V9)

10. Distance of the village from AAS unit (km.): ________________(V10)

11. Size of operational holding (acres): ______________________(V11)

12. Leased-in land (acres): ______________________(V12)

13. Leased-out land (acres): ______________________(V13)

14. AAS contact farmer Yes (1)/ No (2): ______________________(V14)

Part II. Farmer’s assessment of weather forecasts (reliability and use)

1.What are the weather-related events affecting crops adversely during the last 10 years?
Crop Most affected stage Second most affected stage

Stage* Weather Stage* Weather

parameter** parameter**

1 V15 V16 V17 V18 V19

2. V20 V21 V22 V23 V24
3. V25 V26 V27 V28 V29
4. V30 V31 V32 V33 V34
5. V35 V36 V37 V38 V39

*1-Sowing; 2-Vegetative growth; 3-Flowering; 4- Maturity; 5-Harvesting

** 1-Rainfall; 2- Temperature; 3- Wind speed; 4- Wind direction; 5- Cloud cover;
6- Any other

2. What are your sources (three most important) of weather forecasts? Please tick
that is relevant.
a. Radio V40
b. Television V41
c. Newspaper V42
d. AAS Bulletin in printed form/ Public notice V43
e. Telephone/ Fax / Personal contact with AAS V44

22
 f. Any other, please specify V45

3. What is the frequency of forecasts you use?

a. Daily V46
b. Bi-weekly V47
c. Weekly V48
d. Fortnightly V49
e. Monthly V50
f. Seasonally V51
4. What is the coverage of forecast used by you?
a. Rainfall V52
b. Temperature V53
c. Wind speed V54
d. Wind direction V55
e. Cloud cover V56
f. Any other V57

5. What are traditional weather forecast methods followed by you?

Parameters Method# Length of forecast Chances of hit
(daily/weekly/monthly/ forecast (%)
seasonal/other)*
Rainfall V58 V59 V60
Temperature V61 V62 V63
Wind speed V64 V65 V66
Wind direction V67 V68 V69
Cloud cover V70 V71 V72
# 1- Observing star positions; 2- Consulting Panchang (Horoscope); 3- Folklore; 4-Any other
*1- Daily; 2- Weekly; 3- Monthly; 4- Seasonal; 5- Other (specify)

6. Are you aware about AAS Bulletins: Yes(1)/ No (2) V73

7. If yes, how did you come to know about the AAS bulletins? V74
a. Personal contact with officials (Scientist, AAS field staff, BDO) V75
b. Informed by fellow farmer or Panchayat head V76
c. Through electronic media: (Radio-1; TV –2) V77
d. Through mass media: (Newspaper): V78
e. Any other source? V79
f. How do you define it? V80

8. A. AAS Bulletin provides weather forecast for:

a. Rainfall V81
b. Temperature V82
c. Wind speed V83
23
 d. Wind direction V84
e. Cloud cover V85
f. Multiple weather parameter V86
g. Farm management V87
h. Multiple weather parameter and farm management V88

B. Duration of forecast V89

a. Daily (1)
b. Bi-weekly (2)
c. Weekly (3)
d. Monthly (4)
e. Seasonal (5)
9. Since when you are receiving the AAS Bulletins (month / year): V90
10. To what extent the message of AAS bulletin is clear and adequate? V91
a. Coverage is adequate (Yes -1/ No -2) V92
b. Message is clear (Yes-1/ No -2) V93
c. Is additional information on crop management useful? (Yes-1/ No-2) V94
d. Is frequency of dissemination all right? (Yes- 1/ No -2) V95

11. What are the factors having bearing on the importance of AAS Bulletin V96
a. Timely availability: (Yes-1/ No-2) V97
b. Forecast reliability: (Yes-1/ No-2) V98
c. Expected benefits: (Yes-1/ No-2) V99
d. Overall usefulness (most useful-1, somewhat useful- 2, useless- 3): V100
12. If you are satisfied with AAS bulletin, are you willing to pay for it? V101
Yes-1/ No- 2/ Can’t say –3

13. If Yes, what maximum price can you pay for the AAS bulletin for one crop
season (indicate in terms of kilogram of crop produce)? V102

Sl.No. Crop Kilogram of crop produce

1 V103
2 V104

Provide information for the two most important crops.

14. Suggestions for improvement in AAS:
a. Coverage should V105
i. Increase (specify in days):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Not change
b. Frequency should V106
i. Increase (in days specify):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Remain unchanged

24
c. Lead time (time available between availability of forecast & taking
action) should: V107
i. Increase (specify in days):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Remain unchanged
d. Length of forecast should V108
i. Increase (specify in days):
ii. Decrease (in days specify):
iii. Remain unchanged
e. Agro advice should have more focus on V109
i. Latest technological know-how (variety, breed, etc)
ii. Input use
iii. Plant protection
iv. Market-related information
v. Any other
f. Rank the following based on their effectiveness in information dissemination: V110
i. Electronic media (TV, Radio, etc) V111
ii. Print media (Newspapers, Magazines, etc.) V112
iii. Any other method (please specify) V113
g. Any other information V114

Part III.

15. Cropping pattern and area under important crops: (for total operational holding)
Crop Area irrigated Source of Un-irrigated Area
(acre) irrigation area (acre) under
(canal/tube well/ HYV**
well/other)* crops
(acre)

Kharif
1 V115 V116 V117 V118 V119
2 V120 V121 V122 V123 V124
3 V125 V126 V127 V128 V129
4 V130 V131 V132 V133 V134
5 V135 V136 V137 V138 V139
Rabi
1 V140 V141 V142 V143 V144
2 V145 V146 V147 V148 V149
3 V150 V151 V152 V153 V154
4 V155 V156 V157 V158 V159
5 V160 V161 V162 V163 V164

*1-canal; 2-tubewell; 3-wells; 4-others; ** HYV= High Yielding Varieties (of crops)
25
Use of weather forecast, Input use pattern and crop yield:
Farmer’s name:V5 Village: V4 District:V3 Date of Interview: V165
Plot No. V166__________Area (acre) V167 _________ Own/ Lease1 V168 ____ If irrigated, source of irrigation2 : V169 … Unirrigated/Rainfed V170 ….
Crop V171 _________Variety V172 ___________ Previous crop grown V173 _________

Operations Land Seed Sowing Irrigation/Drainage Fertilizer/ Plant Interculture Harvesting Threshing Postharvest
preparation treatment FYM protection handlingand
application storage

V174 V194 V214 1 2 3 4 5 V334 V354 V374 V394 V414

V234 V254 V274 V294 V314 V434
Cropgrowth stage V175 V195 V215 V235 V255 V275 V295 V315 V335 V355 V375 V395 V415 V435

Natureofweatherrisk V176 V196 V216 V236 V256 V276 V296 V316 V336 V356 V376 V396 V416 V436

Dateofoperation V177 V197 V217 V237 V257 V277 V297 V317 V337 V357 V377 V397 V417 V437

Methodofoperation,ifapplicable V178 V198 V218 V238 V258 V278 V298 V318 V338 V358 V378 V398 V418 V438

UseofAAS:(Yes–1; NO-2) V179 V199 V219 V239 V259 V279 V299 V319 V339 V359 V379 V399 V419 V439

AASrecommendation V180 V200 V220 V240 V260 V280 V300 V320 V340 V360 V380 V400 V420 V440

Actiontakenby you V181 V201 V221 V241 V261 V281 V301 V321 V341 V361 V381 V401 V421 V441

Reasonsfordeviation3 V182 V202 V222 V242 V262 V282 V302 V322 V342 V362 V382 V402 V422 V442

Associatedcost4 (Unit) V183 V203 V223 V243 V263 V283 V303 V323 V343 V363 V383 V403 V423 V443

Inputname V184 V204 V224 V244 V264 V284 V304 V324 V344 V364 V384 V404 V424 V444

Inputquantity V185 V205 V225 V245 V265 V285 V305 V325 V345 V365 V385 V405 V425 V445

Malelabour use(mandays)5 V186 V206 V226 V246 V266 V286 V306 V326 V346 V366 V386 V406 V426 V446

Femalelabour use(mandays)5 V187 V207 V227 V247 V267 V287 V307 V327 V347 V367 V387 V407 V427 V447

Machineuse(Hrs.) V188 V208 V228 V248 V268 V288 V308 V328 V348 V368 V388 V408 V428 V448

Machine(Type) V189 V209 V229 V249 V269 V289 V309 V329 V349 V369 V389 V409 V429 V449

Bullockuse(Pair Hrs.) V190 V210 V230 V250 V270 V290 V310 V330 V350 V370 V390 V410 V430 V450

V191 V211 V231 V251 V271 V291 V311 V331 V351 V371 V391 V411 V431 V451
MainProduct(Qtls.)
By Product(Qtls.) V192 V212 V232 V252 V272 V292 V312 V332 V352 V372 V392 V412 V432 V452

Remarks(Any extremeeventat V193 V213 V233 V253 V273 V293 V313 V333 V353 V373 V393 V413 V433 V453
anystage;Other)

NB: Kindly see the ‘Explanatory Note’ for filling up the numbered columns.

26
 Use of weather forecast, Input use pattern and yield: (Fruits and Plantation Crops)
Farmer’s name:V5 Village:V4 District: V3 Date of Interview: V165 Plot No
V166___________Area (acre) V167 ________ Own/ Lease1 V168 _____ If irrigated, source of irrigation2 V169 .. Unirrigated/Rainfed V170 ……..

Crop V171__________ Variety 172 ___________ Previous crop grown V173 _______ Age of plantation (Years) V454 ____________

Operations Operations*

Interculture Pest Irrigation Fertilizer Harvesting Post-harvest

management application management
1 2 3 4 5
V455 V474 V493 V512 V531 V550 V569 V588 V607 V626
Natureofweatherrisk V456 V475 V494 V513 V532 V551 V570 V589 V608 V627

Dateofoperation V457 V476 V495 V514 V533 V552 V571 V590 V609 V628

Methodofoperation V458 V477 V496 V515 V534 V553 V572 V591 V610 V629

UseofAAS:(Yes–1; NO-2) V459 V478 V497 V516 V535 V554 V573 V592 V611 V630

AASrecommendation V460 V479 V498 V517 V536 V555 V574 V593 V612 V631

Actiontakenby you V461 V480 V499 V518 V537 V556 V575 V594 V613 V632

Reasonsfordeviation3 V462 V481 V500 V519 V538 V557 V576 V595 V614 V633

Associatedcost4 (Unit) V463 V482 V501 V520 V539 V558 V577 V596 V615 V634

Inputname V464 V483 V502 V521 V540 V559 V578 V597 V616 V635

Inputquantity V465 V484 V503 V522 V541 V560 V579 V598 V617 V636
5
Malelabouruse(mandays) V466 V485 V504 V523 V542 V561 V580 V599 V618 V637
5
Femalelabouruse(mandays) V467 V486 V505 V524 V543 V562 V581 V600 V619 V638

Machineuse(Hrs.) V468 V487 V506 V525 V544 V563 V582 V601 V620 V639

Machine(Type) V469 V488 V507 V526 V545 V564 V583 V602 V621 V640

Bullockuse(Pair Hrs.) V470 V489 V508 V527 V546 V565 V584 V603 V622 V641

Main Product(Qtls.) V471 V490 V509 V528 V547 V566 V585 V604 V623 V642

By Product(Qtls.) V472 V491 V510 V529 V548 V567 V586 V605 V624 V643

Remarks(Any extreme V473 V492 V511 V530 V549 V568 V587 V606 V625 V644
eventatanystage;Others)

NB: Kindly see the ‘Explanatory Note’ for filling up the numbered columns.
Operations*: Interculture, post-harvest management, irrigation, fertilizer application, harvesting, post-harvest management etc.
Please note that all farm applications may not be relevant during a visit.

27
Explanatory Notes:

1. Owned land/ Leased in land

2. 1-.Canal, 2- Tubewell, 3- well 4-Others
3. 1-Unreliable forecast; 2- Inadequate
time; 3- Inadequate resources; 4- Uncertainty of expected benefits; 5-
Recommendation not feasible; 6- Any other
4. Additional non-input cost (Rs)
5. One man equivalent day equals to 8 hours.
6. Since the field investigator is supposed to observe farmers’ responses to AAS Advisory on weekly basis, the farmers’ response would be captured
at different crop growth stages viz., Vegetative, Flowering, Fruiting, Ripening, Harvesting.
7. This information will be collected during several visits to farmers. Please use one sheet for a crop. If environments like irrigated and rainfed, then separate
sheets should be used. The data then will be transferred to a master sheet.

General information about prices

Sr. No. Items Price / Rate Remarks

(Rs./ Unit)

1. Seed (Rs./kg) V645 V646

2. Fertilizer (1) (Rs./kg) V647 V648
(2) (Rs./kg) V649 V650
(3) (Rs./kg) V651 V652
3. Irrigation charges (Rs./acre) V653 V654
4. Labour (Rs./mandays) V655 V656
5. Machine Labour (1) (Rs./acre) V657 V658
(2) (Rs./acre) V659 V660
(3) (Rs./acre) V661 V662
6. Bullock Labour (Rs./acre) V663 V664
7. Plant Protection chemicals (1) (Rs./acre) V665 V666
(2) (Rs./acre) V667 V668
(3) (Rs./acre) V669 V670
8. Main product (Rs./qtl) V671 V672
Product prices
By product (Rs./qtl) V673 V674
Note: This information will be compiled in first year for a farmer, and all analysis will be done at these (constant) prices.

28
4. Survey results of socio-economic features of farmers

For the purpose of comparison of the socio-economic features of household, India

was divided into 4 zones north (Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan); West (Jaipur,
Jodhpur, Anand, Pune); East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshwar); and south (Bangalore,
Hyderabad, Coimbatore, Thrissur). The survey has been conducted based on the
questionnaire designed by NCAP.

(a) Age group of farmers

The pie graph shown in Figure 4.1 below depicts the age group of farmers in
different zones of India. It is seen that in the south more than 70% of the farmers are in
the age group of 35 or more (83%) followed by east where it is 61% and this is followed
by north where 57% of the farmers are in this age group. In the west consisting of station
like Jaipur, Jodhpur, Anand and Pune 47 % of the farmers are less than 35 years of age.
In general, it is seen that on an average over India most of the farmers belong to the
middle level age group. This implies that the younger generation may not be interested to
take up farming as a profession.

North( Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan) West (Jaipur, Jodhpur, Anand, Pune)

36-50 years 36-50 years

47% 40%

>50 years
>50 years
13%
10%
<35 years <35 years
43% 47%

East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshwar) South (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Coimbatore,

Thrissur)

36-50 years
53%
36-50 years
70%

>50 years >50 years

8% 13%
<35 years <35 years
39% 17%

Fig 4.1 Pie Chart depicting the age group of farmers in different zones of the country

29
(b) Educational level of farmers:
Figure 4.2 shows the education level of farmer in the four zones of the country.
The pie graph depicts that 52% of the farmers in North and west are at least matriculate
followed by east (48%) and south with 45%. Although the percentage of illiterate farmers
is very less about 0-8%, it is maximum in east and nil in the west. Interestingly about 6-
17% of the farmers are college pass with west leading in this category
North( Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan) West (Jaipur, Jodhpur, anand, Pune)

Matric HSC
0% 0%
52% 14%
HSC Matric
14% 52%
College
College
17%
6%
Primary Illiterate
Illiterate
23% 0%
5%
Primary
17%

East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshw ar) South (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Coim batore,
Thrissur)

Matric 0% HSC
48% 0%
HSC 26%
7%

College
Matric College
13%
45% 12%
Primary Illiterate
24% Primary Illiterate
8%
13% 4%

Fig 4.2 Pie Chart depicting the educational level of farmers in different zones of the country

(c) Size of holding

The pie graph in Figure 4.3 depicts the size of land holdings of the farmers in the
4 zones. It is seen that in general farmers in the west have large land holdings where 12%
of the farmers have land holdings greater than 25 acres followed by 40% in the 10-25
acres category. The west zone is followed by stations in the north where 23% farmers
have land holdings greater than 10 acres; 26% have land in the 5-10 acres and rest 51%
have holdings of less than 5 acres. In the east and southern zone the farmers generally
have small to medium land holdings ranging between 2.5-5 acres (east-65%; south-71%).

30
22% of the farmers in the east and 6% in the south have land holdings greater than 10
acres.
North( Ludhiana, Hisar, Pantnagar, Solan) West (Jaipur, Jodhpur, Anand, Pune)

5.0-10 acres >10 acres

26% 40%

>10 acres
23%

>25 acres
12%
< 5.0 acres 5.0-10 acres
40% < 5.0 acres
51%
8%

East (Raipur, Nadia, Bhubaneshwar) South (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Coimbatore,

Thrissur)

5.0-10 acres
13% 2.5- 5.0 acres
37% 5.0-10 acres
>10 acres
23%
22%
2.5- 5.0 acres
52%
>10 acres
<2.5 acres
6%
13% <2.5
34%

Fig 4.3 Pie Chart showing the land holdings owned by different farmers of the country
(d) Major crops grown by the selected farmers in the last 10 year
The following Table shows the major crops grown by the farmers in different regions
of the country during different seasons. The crops grown basically depend on the soil type,
cropping pattern, weather conditions and also whether the crops are irrigated or rain fed.

Table 4.1. Major crops gown in the 15 AAS units in Kharif and Rabi seasons
Station Major Crops grown Crops considered
under the project
Anand Paddy, Pearlmillet, Wheat, Gram, Mustard, Tobacco, Potato, Tobacco
Brinjal, Tomato, Chilly, Banana, Potato
Bangalore Paddy, Maize, Sorghum, Ragi, Navane And Save; Ragi, Redgram
Redgram Field Bean, Horse Gram, Cowpea, Black
Gram; Groundnut, Sunflower, Soyabean;
Vegetables: Tomato, Brinjal, Chilli, Cauliflower,
Cabbage, Cucumber, Potato, Onion, Grapes, Mango,
Banana, Sapota, Guava; Coconut, Cashew Nut

31
Bhubaneshwar Rice, Greengram, Black gram, Groundnut, Coconut, Rice (direct sown &
Cashewnut, Pointed Gourd, Tomato, Brinjal, Okra transplanted),Tomato
Hisar Cotton, Bajra, Jowar, Guar, Moong, Cowpea, Moth, Cotton, Mustard
Sugarcane, Mustard, Wheat, Barley, Gram Lentil,
Methi, Carrot ,Radish, Cauliflower
Hyderabad Rice, Jowar, Maize, Pigeonpea, Greengram, Chickpea, Rice, Tomato, Palak,
Groundnut, Sunflower, Castor; Cotton, Tomato, Cotton
Brinjal, Leafy Vegetables (Palak, Amaranthus, Etc.,)
Carrot, Beet Root, Beans, Bhendi, Mango, Sapota,
Citrus
Jaipur Pearl Millet, Peanut, Cluster Bean, Green Gram, Moth Pearl Millet, Wheat,
Bean, Cowpea; Pumpkin, Bitter Gourds, Tomato, Gram
Brinjal, Okra, Chillies, Cluster Bean, Cucumber,
Onion, Ridge Gourd, Bottle Gourd; Pearl Millet
Fodder (In Irrigated Areas); Wheat, Chickpea (Gram),
Barley And Mustard; Pea, Tomato, Brinjal,
Cauliflower, Cabbage, Cucumber, Onion, Carrot,
Radish, Garlic; Coriander, Cumin, Fenugreek, And
Fennel, Ajwain; Lucerne; Ziad Green Gram
Muskmelon, Watermelon, Cucurbits, Chillies, And
Cluster Bean, Pearlmillet Fodder
Jodhpur Pearl Millet, Moong, Moth, Clusterbean, Sesame, Pearl Millet, Mustard,
Sorghum, Clusterbean, Groundnut, Cotton, Tomato, Cumin
Chilly & Caster (Oil Seed), Mustard Wheat, Barely
Cumin, Carrot, Chilly And Vegetables Crops
Kalyani Rice, Wheat, Bengal Gram, Green Gram, Black Gram, Rice (Boro & Aman),
Lentil, Mustard, Sesame, Linseed, Groundnut, Jute, Mustard
Sunflower, Niger,Cabbage, Cauliflower, Bottle Gourd,
Bitter Gourd, Ridge Gourd, Pointed Gourd, Chilli,
Potato, French Bean, Brinjal, Cucumber, Radish,
Bhindi, Knolkhol, Broad Bean, Beet, Carrot, Spinach,
Amaranthus, Indian Spinach, Banana, Mango, Jack
Fruit, Guava, Litchi, Pomogranate, Coconut, Areca
Nut, Betel Vine, Ginger, Turmeric, Coriander, Onion,
Fennel, Garlic, Jute, Sunflower, Rose,
Chrysanthemum, Marigold, Jasmine
Ludhiana Rice, Wheat Rice, Wheat
Pantnagar Rice,Sugarcane, Maize, Soybean, Moong, Urd, Arhar, Rice, Wheat
Groundnut, Seasonal Vegetable Crops,Wheat, Lentil,
Gram, Pea, Rapeseed, Mustard,Potato, Seasonal
Vegetable Crops Are Grown During Rabi Season. Urd,
Moong And Sunflower Are Also Grown During
Summer Season As Zaid Crops. Mango, Guava, Lemon
And Leechi Are Main Fruit Crops

32
Pune Bajra, Sorghum And Wheat; Green Gram, Black Wheat, Pearl millet,
Gram; Groundnut, Soybean, Sugarcane ,Onion, Onion
Cauliflower, Cabbage, Brinjal,Tomato, Okra, Potato,
Leafy Vegetables, Guava, Kagdi Lime, Coconut
Raipur Rice, Wheat, Maize, Jowar, Gram, Lathyrus, Lentil, Rice, Wheat, Gram
Pigeon Pea, Green Gram, Black Gram, Soybean,
Castor, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesame, Linseed,
Cauliflower, Ivy Gourd, Ridge Gourd, Tomato, Chilli,
Potato, Sem, Cowpea, Cucumber, Papaya, Banana,
Mango, Guava, Custard Apple, Ginger, Coriander
Solan Tomato, Capsicum, French-Beans, Maize, Bitter Tomato, Capsicum,
Gourd, Seet Gourd, Pumpkin; Peach, Plum, Apricot, Peach, Apricot
Pomegranate, Pear, Strawberry. Pea, Cabbage Family,
Cauliflower, Garlic, Turmeric, Ginger, Leafy
Vegetables (Methi, Palak, Dhania, Sarson, Salad,
Lettuce, Wheat, Pulses , Oil Seed Crops, Maize Etc
Thrissur Coconut, Arecanut, Banana, Black Pepper, Vanilla, Paddy, Coconut, Banana , Rice
Vegetables, Nutmeg, Cashew, Rubber, Tapioca, Ginger (irrigated & rainfed)

5. Survey results of economic impact of AAS (Quantity and Price)

The Project Scientists visited the selected farmers of both AAS and non-AAS
categories on specified time schedules. These visits were planned in such a way so as to
coincide with the dates of different operations like land preparation, sowing, planting,
irrigation scheduling, fertilizer applications, harvesting and post-harvesting operations.
The Nodal Officers carried out the survey based on the queries in the questionnaire
designed by NCAP. This questionnaire includes the dates of all the operations, the action
taken by the farmer in view of the impending weather/advisory, cost of seed, labour
applied in terms of both machine and human, number of irrigations undertaken, fertilizers
applied, harvest technology adopted and various other issues. Based on the data collected,
the assessment of the impact of AAS in economic terms was carried out by the nodal
officers with the help of NCMRWF
The economic impact assessment is crop specific, region specific and season
specific. Case studies of specific operations have also been cited with the gain/loss in
economic terms. Given below are the detailed analysis of each crop undertaken by the 15
units. The results are based on the following aspects
 Impact of AAS on cost of cultivation
 Impact of AAS on net returns
 Impact of AAS on yield
Therefore the information given below for each crop broadly covers the following.
o AAS units undertaking study on specified crop
o General Information of the crop
o Weather Sensitive farm operations
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
o Measuring the Impact of AAS
o Case Studies

33
 o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS.
Most of the information is put in the form of Tables. These Tables are self-
explanatory and do not need further elaboration.

(a)Cereals : Rice and wheat

 Rice
o AAS units undertaking study on rice
Hyderabad Season: Kharif & Rabi
Raipur Season: Kharif
Thrissur Season: Kharif & Rabi
Kalyani Season: Kharif & Rabi
Bhubaneshwar Season: Kharif & Rabi
Ludhiana Season: Kharif
Pantnagar Season: Kharif

o General Information of the crop

Rice is grown under widely varying conditions of altitude and climate. Rice is
considered to be warmth and humid loving crop. It requires prolonged sunshine and
assured water supply. Rice accommodates itself under an annual rainfall ranging from
1000 mm to 1500 mm or even more. The atmospheric temperature has considerable
effect on growth and development of rice plants. Rice needs relatively high temperature
ranging between 25 to 350C for optimum growth and development of plants. However,
high temperature, especially during nights, leads to greater respiration losses of the
accumulated food materials. Therefore, for higher grain yield a day temperature of 25 to
33 0C and night temperature of 15 to 20 0C are preferable. A higher mean temperature
ranging between 25 to 32 0C per day would reduce the growth duration and accelerate
flowering. Whereas a mean temperature of less than 150C would cause a dormant stage or
a slow vegetative growth but plants fail to flower. Rice crop prefer to have bright
sunshine for an enhanced photosynthetic activity and higher yields. Bright days
associated with gentle winds are the best condition because CO2 supply and utilization
are regulated to the maximum. Heavy wind causes severe lodging or shattering
depending upon the crop growth stage. Rice is essentially a short day plant. A
combination of temperatures, photo-period and light intensity, however, determines the
growth period, growth rate, crop performance and productivity.
Rice is grown in both Rabi and Kharif season in Hyderabad. Yields in Rabi are
higher than Kharif due to higher nitrogen use efficiency in view of abundant availability
of solar radiation. In Thrissur also it is grown both in Rabi and Kharif season with Kharif
paddy being rainfed. In Bhubaneshwar paddy is grown under both direct sown and
transplanted condition. In Raipur, Ludhiana, Pantnagar it is taken up during Kharif
season. In Kalyani in West Bengal, two varieties of paddy are grown namely Boro in
Kharif and Aman in Rabi season.

o Weather Sensitive farm operations

All farm operations are sensitive to paddy growth. They are: Sowing; Raising of
seedlings ; Transplanting, Irrigation, Fertilizer application, Plant protection; Harvesting

34
 o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Crop growth Std Met. Important weather parameter related to Effect of weather parameter
stage Week * respective crop growth

Paddy Hyderabad Time of 26-31 Rainfall Timely transplanting

(Long transplanting
duration) Tillering 30-34
Cloud cover, rainfall and temperature Incidence of diseases and pests

Panicle Cloud cover, rainfall and minimum Incidence of

35-38
initiation temperature diseases and pests
Flowering 36-39 Cloud cover, rainfall and minimum
Incidence of diseases and pests
temperature
Grain filling 37-40 Cloud cover, rainfall and minimum
Incidence of diseases and pests
temperature
Harvesting 40-45 Rainfall Damage to grain
Paddy Raipur
Emergence phase 25 Rainfall Deficit or excess rainfall effect the
emergence
Seedling phase 26-28 Rainfall & Sunshine Deficit rainfall increase the weed growth

Transplanting 29 Rainfall Deficit rainfall hampers the transplanting

phase
Tillering phase 30-33 Rainfall Excess rainfall decreases the tiller
production
Vegetative lag 34-35 Cloudiness Reduced biomass and photosynthesis
phase
Reproductive 36-38 Rainfall Reduced pollination
phase
Grain ripening 39-42 Sunshine Increases fertile spikelets
phase

35
Paddy Thrissur Sowing 19 – 21st Lack of pre-monsoon showers or heavy Lack of pre-monsoon showers affect the
Kharif week rainfall after sowing sowing process and further it will affect the
(May 7-27) timely sowing of second season crop.
Heavy pre-monsoon rainfall after sowing /
transplanting causes washing away of
seedlings.
Flowering 28-31st Rainfall Wet spell during flowering period in kharif
week are detrimental. 20 per cent loss is expected
(July 9- due to grain chaffing.
August 5)
Harvesting 35-37th Rainfall Rainfall during harvest stage will affect the
week harvesting operation and cause yield loss,
(August grain quality
27-
September
16)
Rabi Sowing / 38 - 41st Rainfall Heavy rainfall during this period will cause
transplanting week delay in sowing/transplanting which in
(17th turn affect the crop yield by exposure of
September crop during dry spell period.
– 14th
October)
Reproductive 45-46th Early cessation of northeast monsoon Dry spell during this period will affect the
stage week(5th rainfall production
November–
18th
November
Paddy Kalyani Seedling 3-4 Met wk Severe cold ,rain Yellowing of leaves
Boro
Tillering to 6-10 Met. Rain and cloudiness Sheath blight, Brown spot
flowering Week

36
 Bhubaneshwar Vegetative 6-8th week Low temperature Retarded
Timely sown (5th –25th vegetative growth
(transplanted) Feb) Wind speed
Flowering 12th-13th Imperious effect on pollination
week (19th
Mar-1st pr) Cloud cover Set back in grain filling (owing to less
Maturity stage energy out put)
16-29th Difficulty in sun drying
April
Harvesting Cloud cover

Late sown - 30th April- - -

(transplanted 6th May
Paddy Ludhiana Seedling 22 Rainfall Seedling mortality & less growth at lesser
rainfall
Transplanting 26 High temperature High temperature is harmful

Tillering stage 28 Temperature Increased temperature less tillering, effected

by low night temperature
Panicle initiation 31 High wind speed High wind speed desiccate panicles
stage
Booting stage 35 High temperature and High humidity High temperature less elongation,
susceptible to rainfall
Heading stage 36 High temperature Very sensitive to high temperature
Flowering stage 38 High temperature and strong winds High temp. causes anthesis sterility, strong
winds shreds flowers
Milky stage 39 Temperature Low night temperature
Dough stage 40
Maturation stages 42 Rainfall and strong winds Causes Lodging

37
Paddy Pantnagar Transplanting 24 to 29 Rainfall More area is covered for transplanting if
sufficient rainfall
Tillering 26 to 31 Rainfall & Temperature More tillers
Grain filling 40 to 41 Temperature Less grain if temp. is low

Harvesting 42 to 43 Rainfall & Wind Harvesting & Threshing Delayed

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on cost Impact of AAS on gross Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on
of cultivation (Rs/acre) returns (Rs/acre) net returns yield
(Rs/acre) (Q/acre)

Raipur Paddy Decrease by 12.3% Increase by 12.0% Increase by 55.8% Increase by 10.3%
Thrissur Paddy- Decrease by 5.6% Increase by 7.5% Increase by 11.5% Increase by 7.6%
Kharif
Thrissur Paddy- Rabi Decrease by 5.6% Increase by 12.1% Increase by 19.2% Increase by 12.4%
Kalyani Boro Rice Decrease by 13.4% Increase by 8.3% Increase by 24.7% Increase by 18.1%
Kalyani Aman Rice Decrease by 11.2% Increase by 23% Increase by 21% Increase by 14.2%
Bhubaneshwar Transplanted Increase by 8.5% Increase by 11.3% Increase by 16.1% Increase by 12.0%
Rice
Ludhiana Rice Decrease by 7.7% Increase by 8.6% Increase by 21.2% Increase by 8.8%
Hyderabad Paddy Decrease by 13.24% Increase by 8.1% Increase by 27 % Increase by 0.4%
Pantnagar Paddy Decrease by 5% Increase by 8.1% Increase by 19.1% Increase by 21.3%

38
 o Case Studies
Station Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS recommendation in Whether AAS What is the loss/gain
parameter light of the prevailing weather for Recommenda achieved due to the
crucial to the that operation (write the tion followed recommendation
crop recommendation also) (AAS vs non AAS)
In Total cost In Net
of cultivation returns
(Rs/ac) (Rs/ac)
Raipur Kharif 04 Paddy Beushening Rainfall July 16, 2004 Followed The AAS farmers benefited
Bueshning operation can over the non-AAS farmers
immediately be done by following the
Kharif 04 Paddy Tillering Rainfall August 24, 04 Followed recommendations.
Spraying of fungicide is
recommended
Paddy Biasi Rainfall July 26, 05 Followed
Moderate rain expected. Farmers
can go for Biasi operation
Kharif 05 Paddy Interculture Rainfall August 30, 05 Followed
and Plant Clear weather, farmers can go for
protection plant protection and interculture
operation
Thrissur Rabi 03- Paddy Spraying High relative October 14, 2003 All the Marginal 1173
04 humidity and low Recommendation: farmers insignificant
temperature Infestation of leaf folder is seen in followed increase only
paddy, use a thorny stick and open (19/-)
the folded leaves, spray
Monocrotophos/
Quinalphos/carbaryl in the infested
zone of the field.
Kharif 06 Paddy Spraying Cloudy weather, June 13 & 27 and July 4, 2006 43 per cent of 367 850
high relative Recommendation: farmers
humidity and low Infestation of leaf folder is seen in followed
temperature paddy, use a thorny stick and open
the folded leaves, spray
Monocrotophos/Quinalphos/carbary

39
 Rabi 06- Paddy Spraying Daily average November 21 &28 and December 27 per cent of 631 1345
07 temperature of 27 5&12, 2006 farmers
- 28°C and high Recommendation: followed
relative humidity Rice bug infestation is noticed in
paddy. Dust Metacid or spray
Carbaryl, Malathion or Metacid
Bhubaneshwar Kharif 04 Rice Fertilizer and Rainfall and August 2004 Followed 1455 2320
(Transpla pesticide temperature
nted ) application
Rice Herbicide Rainfall September 2004 Followed 188 less 1452
(Direct application
seeded)
Kharif 06 Rice Fertilizer and Rainfall and August 2006 Followed 1376 1968
(Transpla pesticide temperature
nted ) application In
Nursery and
main field
Rice Herbicide and Rainfall Followed 786 1204
(Direct pesticide
seeded) application
Hyderabad Kharif - Paddy Pesticides Cloud cover, Yes Rs. 553 Rs. 771
Dt. October 5 2004 (Tricyclazole)
04 application Rainfall (7.4 %) (12.55%)
Kharif 05 Paddy Pesticides Cloud cover, Dt. October 25 2005, (Edifenphos) Yes Rs. 1239 Rs. 1340
spraying Night Temp (17%) (19%)
Kharif - Paddy Pesticides Temperatures Dt. October 17 2006 (Acephate) Yes Rs. 1022 Rs. 1764
06 spraying (15.43%) (23.74%)
Ludhiana Kharif Paddy Transplanting 10-06.2004 Start transplanting of rice, apply Followed Saved the crop from weed
2004 Dry weather recommended dose of fertilizers and
for weed control use butachlor or
Anilophos in the standing water
within 2-3 days after transplanting
Kharif Paddy Irrigation 05.07.2005 As rainfall is expected in coming Followed Rs 200 per acre
2005 Mainly cloudy days. The farmers advised to save
weather with irrigation water by not applying
moderate to heavy irrigation.
rainfall

40
 Kharif Paddy Irrigation to rice crop may be Followed
2006 01.08.2006 applied two days after the ponded
Generally cloudy water has infiltrated into the soil but
Irrigation weather is rice fields should not be allowed to
expected develop cracks. Last dose of
nitrogen through 35 Kg urea may be
applied, if already not given.
Kharif Paddy 11.08.2006 For the control of Plant hopper, Followed Rs 250 per acre
2006 Plant Partly cloudy Leaf folder and stem borer, spray
Protection weather expected the crop with recommended
pesticides on clear days

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS.

Station: Bhubaneshwar

Input Amount of Input used in Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation(Rs./acre)
(Rs/acre) (Rs/Acre)
Transplanted Rice AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference

Seed 180 218

Fertilizer 857 658
FYM 804 573
Irrigation 318 88
Herbicide 73 20
11770 10505 1265 7280 6410 870
Pesticide 619 409
Human labour 2882 2652
Bullock labour 168 314
Machine labour 1133 1099
Assoc. cost 246 379

41
 Station : Raipur
Input (per acre) Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg/acre) 21 24
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 162 171
7197 8210 -1013
Pesticide(kg/acre) 0 0
23.6 21.4 2.2
Pesticide(l/acre) 0 0
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 31 35
Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 5 5
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 1 2

Station : Thrissur

Input Amount of Input Difference in yield due to the input (Q/ha) Difference in the cost of Cultivation (Rs/acre)
used (kg/ha)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non- AAS Difference AAS Non- AAS Difference
Kharif season
Seed 126 135
Fertilizer 360 374
FYM 927 911
Irrigation N/A N/A 27.5 25.5 2.0 6976 7379 -403
Plant protection chemical
Herbicide - -
Pesticide 0.23 0.20
Rabi season
Seed 120 134
Fertilizer 578 465
FYM 1060 921
Irrigation - - 32.8 28.7 4.1 7748 8210 -462
Plant protection chemical
Herbicide - -
Pesticide 0.5 0.4

42
 Station: Kalyani
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation(Rs/acre)
Boro Rice AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS(Q/Acre) Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
(Q/acre) (Q/acre)
Seed (Kg/acre) 31.4 32.0
Fertilizer (Kg/acre) 87 101
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no./acre) 5 5
Plant protection 0 0 49.3 41.7 7.6 7614 8795 -1181
chemical
Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts./acre) 0.03 0.31
Etc.. ..(land prep…..)
Aman Rice
Seed (Kg/acre) 27 29
Fertilizer (Kg/acre) 73 92
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no./acre) 1 1
43.8 38.3 5.4 6266 7059 -793
Plant protection 0 0
chemical
Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts./acre) 0.1 0.2

Station: Ludhiana

Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
In (kg/acre) (Q/acre) In (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg per acre) 8 8
Fertilizer(kg/acre 143 152
Herbicide (kg/acre) 1 1
Pesticide(kg/acre) 1 0
27.3 25.1 2.2 6186 6705 -519
Human labour Mandays/acre) 17 21
Machine labour
(Total hours/acre) 62 75
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 16 19

43
 Station: Pantnagar

Input Amount of input used Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of

input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff

Seed (kg/acre) 14 15

Fertilizer kg/acre) 129 124

Herbicide (kg/acre) 1 1
5087 5356 -269
Pesticide kg/acre) 6 7 23.3 19.2 4.1

Human labour (mandays/acre) 26 18

Machine labour (hrs/acre) 9 7

Irrigation (no/acre) 6 7
Station: Hyderabad
Input Amount of input used Difference in yield due to input Difference in cost of cultivation (Rs/acre)
(Q/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff

Seed (kg/acre) 61 68

Fertilizer kg/acre) 246 313

Pesticide kg/acre) 2 7
142 141 18447 21262 -2815
1.0
Human labour (mandays/acre) 30 39

Machine labour (hrs/acre) 4 5

Irrigation (no/acre) 5 4

44
  Wheat

o AAS units undertaking study on wheat

Raipur Season: Rabi
Ludhiana Season: Rabi
Pantnagar Season: Rabi
Jaipur Season: Rabi
Pune Season: Rabi

o General Information of the crop

The ideal weather condition for wheat cultivation is cool, moist weather during
the major portion of the growing period followed by dry warm weather to enable the
grain to ripen properly. Warm temperature at this stage is unfavourable to tillering and
also promotes several diseases. Too much of rain during the season results in heavy
incidence of rusts. For vegetative growth crop requires 15 to 20°C. High temperature
during the rapid growth results in poor tillering, low number of effective tillers, poor
growth rate, low LAI, short ears with lower number of spikelets, lower grain weight and
lower quality. It is highly sensitive to moisture stress during the period from shooting to
advance heading stage. Optimum rainfall requirement is 50-87.5 cm during the growing
season and the water requirement is 35-55 cm for different varieties and seasonal
condition.

o Weather sensitive farm operation:

Sowing, Irrigation, Plant protection (wed control), Harvesting & Threshing, and post
harvest are some of the main weather farm operations. The other specific stage wise
weather farm operations are Crown root initiation stage (21 days from sowing);Tillering
stage (42 days from sowing); Flowering stage (63 days from sowing); Milk stage( 84
days from sowing); Dough stage (105 days from sowing)

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on cost Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS
of cultivation (Rs/acre) gross returns net returns on yield
(Rs/acre) (Rs/acre) (Q/acre)

Raipur Wheat Increase by 3.1% Increase by 10.0% Increase by 13.1% Increase by 7.5%
Ludhiana Wheat Increase by 2.6% Increase by 12.9% Increase by 19.3% Increase by
9.6%
Jaipur Wheat Decrease by 0.70 % Increase by 8.84 % Increase by 14.36 % Increase by 5.71
%
Pune Wheat Increase by 4.0% Increase by 13.3% Increase by 28.5% Increase by
32.5%
Pantnagar Wheat Decrease by 8.1% Increase by 7.5% Increase by 12.3% Increase by
17.9%

45
 o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Crop growth Standard Important weather Effect of weather parameter

stage Met. parameter related to
Week * respective crop growth
Wheat Raipur
Anthesis 4–8 Rainfall Pollination affected
(Timely
Sown
High temperature Sterility and stunted growth

Harvesting 12 – 15 Rainfall Lodging

Anthesis 4–8 Rainfall Pollination affected

High temperature Sterility and stunted growth

Late
Sown Harvesting 12 – 15 Rainfall and wind speed Lodging

Wheat Ludhiana Crown root 48 Rainfall Rainfall is beneficial for crop growth
initiation stage
Jointing 50 High temperature High temperature is harmful
Flowering 3 Rainfall Rainfall is beneficial for crop growth

Milking 11 High wind speed High wind speed is harmful for the crop

Grain 13 High temperature and High High temperature and high humidity are harmful to
Development humidity the crop and reduces the yield of crop

Maturity 14 High wind speed High wind speed is harmful for crop yield
Wheat Pantnagar Early sown 45-46 Rainfall & Temp.. Germination & tillering
Med. Sown 47-51 Rainfall & Temp. Germination, tillering & flowering
Late sown 52-02 Rainfall, Temp. & Wind Germination, tillering, flowering & Yield
CRI 49 - 04 Rainfall Highly critical and sensitive to water
Tillering 52-08 Minimum temp. More tiller under low temperature
Ear head 09 to 12 Both Max & Mini. Temp. 7 Grain filling, lodging with irrigation /rainfall under
emergence Wind speed high winds

46
Wheat Jaipur Sowing 46 Temperature Reduce germination
Crown root 49 Moisture Reduced yield by 15-20% if irrigation is not given
initiation stage

Tillering 52 Temperature High temperature reduce tillering

Early emergence 96 Cloudy weather Cause aphid attack & rust disease
Milk stage 9 Temperature High temperature cause shriveling of grains and
reduce grain weight.
Wheat Pune CRI 43 Temperature maximum Effect & weather parameter
(early
sown) Tillering 46 Temperature minimum Warm temperature enhance germination

Flowering 50 Temperature minimum Cool temp. up to 100C & humidity above 85%
increase tillering

Milk stage 1 Temperature minimum Cool temperature up to 80C with less range of in
diurnal temperature
Physiological 5 Temperature Cool temperature with less range of diurnal
maturity temperature
Timely CRI 45 Temperature maximum Warm temperature enhance germination
sown
Tillering 48 Temperature minimum Cool temp. up to 100C & humidity above 85%
increase tillering
Flowering 51 Temperature minimum Cool temperature up to 80C with less range of in
diurnal temperature
Milk stage 3 Temperature minimum Cool temperature with less range of diurnal
temperature
Physiological 8 Temperature Cool temperature with less rang of diurnal
maturity temperature.

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

47
 o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS recommendation in light of Whether AAS Gain/loss due to the
parameter the prevailing weather for that operation recommendation recommendation
crucial to the followed (AAS vs Non AAS)
crop
Rabi04-05 Wheat Plant Temperature Jan 25 2005, Feb 2 2005 The rust on wheat Recommendation
Pune protection minimum should be controlled by spraying of Dithane followed By following the
Z-78, 1250 g. in 500 liter water + 2% Urea recommendation, yield
should be done per hectare. If there is attack loss due to
of insect pest mix 500 ml Monocrotophos in unfavourable weather
above solution. was kept in check. In all
Sowing Temperature Oct 18 2005 Sowing of irrigated wheat Recommendation the AAS farmers had a
Rabi-05-06 minimum should be done during 15th October to 15th followed 12% increase in yield
November Oct 25 2005 There is a prediction over the non-AAS
of low minimum temperature, which is farmers
favorable for sowing of wheat
Irrigation Temperature Jan 31 2006Wheat crop is in milking stage, Recommendation
minimum irrigate wheat in this stage. Irrigation should followed
be given according to the stage of wheat crop
Rabi06-07 Harvesting Temperature Feb 2 2007 Complete the harvesting paradise Recommendation
at morning, which get the benefit of humid followed
climate resulting into reduce of loss due to
shedding of grain from ear head.
Rabi 03-04 Wheat Sowing Dry weather Oct 30 2003: Optimum time for the sowing of Followed The yield of Wheat
Ludhiana wheat and treat the seed with vitavax crop increased by
Rabi 04-05 Irrigation Dry weather Jan 6 2005: Apply second irrigation to the
wheat crop and first irrigation to late sown
and remaining dose of nitrogen fertilizer to
normal as well as late sown wheat
Rabi 05-06 Harvesting Dry Weather Apr 18 2006. It is optimum time for the
harvesting of wheat crop
Rabi 04-05 Raipur Milking stage Rainfall Feb. 01, 2005. Rainfall is useful for the wheat Followed The yield of Wheat
crop, farmers were recommended for top crop increased by
dressing.
Rabi 05-06 Harvesting Rainfall March 31, 2006 Clear weather farmers can go
for harvesting
Rabi06-07 CRI Temperature Jan 02, 2007 Irrigation was recommended for
Branching both the crop

48
 o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Raipur
Input (per acre) Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Kg/acre) (Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non- Difference
AAS
Seed (kg/acre) 37 38
Fertilizer(kg/acre 76 86
Herbicide (kg/acre) 0 0 14.0 13.0 1.0 3812 3699 113
Pesticide(kg/acre) 1 44
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 6 7
Machine labour (Total
hours/acre) 5 6
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 5 5

Station: Ludhiana
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
In (kg/acre) (Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg per acre) 40 40
Fertilizer(kg/acre 150 153
Herbicide (kg/acre) 147 131
Pesticide(kg/acre) 150 0 35.5 32.4 3.1 5262 5130 132
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 7 7
Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 14 15
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 0 0
Station: Jaipur
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
In (kg/acre) (Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg per acre) 40 43
Fertilizer(kg/acre 114 101
Herbicide (kg/acre) 0 0
Pesticide(kg/acre) 26 15 5207 5803 -596
26.7 24.8 1.9
Human labour (Mandays/acre) 29 35
Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 9 10
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 6 7

49
 Station: Pantnagar
Input Amount of input Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of
used (kg/acre) input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non Diff
AAS

Seed (kg/acre) 30.1 30.3

Fertilizer (kg/acre) 50 80

Pesticide (kg/acre) 0 1
-282
63.7 54 9.7 3206 3488
Human labour (man
days/acre) 2 3

Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 5 4

Irrigation (no/acre) 2 3

(b) Millets : Finger Millet & Pearl Millet

 Finger Millet/Ragi

o AAS units undertaking study on Finger Millet/Ragi

Bangalore Season: Kharif
o General information of crop
Finger millet (Eleusine coracana L. Gaertn ) is cultivated mainly in Asia and
Africa. It is known by different names such as bird’s foot or coracana in English, Ragi or
Nangli. It is predominantly grown as a dry land crop in the peninsular Indian States of
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Crop like finger millet is well to known to respond to change in the climatic
condition due to their adoptability, susceptibility to moisture stress, high relative
humidity and high rainfall, however, physiology of finger millet can not respond all time
change in the climatic condition. In India there are two main crop seasons of Ragi. The
higher rainfall zones allowing sowing with early varieties. It is known as gidda Ragi
sown during May in order to harvest the crop by September or October. Most areas are
sown to late varieties (Hain or Dodda Ragi) between July and August, in order to harvest
the crop by November or December or January. Irrigated Ragi is also sown in India. If
irrigated, it is primarily a dry or a summer season crop grown between February and May
on red sandy loams. Principal soil types on which finger millet is grown are red lateritic
loams or sandy loams, where deficiencies of major nutrients are common. Temperature
during the crop season varies between 25˚ and 32˚C, and a crop season might receive
nearly 400 to 500 mm precipitation. It possesses good drought recovery characteristics,
hence is suited for dry land agriculture, characterized by intermittent drought stress.
Drought years will obviously provide much less water for the crop. Preferred altitude
range for Ragi is between 1000 and 1800 msl.

50
 o Weather sensitive farm operation
The weather sensitive farm operation is inter-cultivations, weeding and harvesting.
o Measuring the Impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS on cost Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of AAS
of cultivation on gross returns on net returns on yield

Bangalore Finger millet Decrease by 8.3% Increase by 10.4% Increase by Increase by

45.9% 10.4%

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Crop growth Std Important weather Effect of weather
stage Met. parameter related to parameter
Week* respective crop growth
stage
Ragi/ Bangalore 12 Rainfall Lodging and shedding of
Finger Early sown Harvesting grains
Millet (transplanted)
Timely sown Vegetative & 14 Rainfall and RH Leads poor panicle
(transplanted) Panicle initiation development & grain
stage filling
Late sown Grain filling 16 Rainfall Poor grain filling leads
(transplanted) (Maturity) lesser yields
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS Whether What is the loss/gain
parameter recommendation AAS achieved due to the
crucial to in light of the Recomm recommendation (AAS vs.
the crop prevailing endation non AAS)
weather for that followed In Total cost of In Net
operation cultivation returns
Kharif Finger millet Inter Rainfall December 12, 13, Yes 433 / ac 1290 /ac
2005 Bangalore cultivation 14, 15 and 18 –
and 21 Sep 2005
harvesting Recon : No rain is
forecasted; go for
Inter cultivation
and harvesting the
crop
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS.
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the Difference in the cost of
In (Rs/acre) Input in (Rs/acre) Cultivation in (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non- Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
AAS
Seed 87 103
FYM 978 1079
Fertilizer 572 600 7673 6950 723 4181 4557 -376
Human labour 1251 1512
Bullock labour 300 268
Machine labour 992 995

51
  Pearl Millet/ Bajra

o AAS units undertaking study on Pearl Millet/ Bajra

Jodhpur Season: Kharif
Jaipur Season: Kharif
Pune Season: Kharif
o General information of crop
Pearl millet is most important rainfed crop of this zone. This crops is largely
cultivated by the farmers for both grain & fodder production. It responds to life saving
irrigation under moisture stress conditions. It prefers hot & humid weather. Optimum
time of sowing is first fortnight of July. Late sowing in the month of August causes poor
stand of crop due to high rate of mortality of the seedlings, restricted vegetative growth,
poor grain setting and more incidence of disease due to comparatively low temperature
during the period.
o Weather sensitive farm operations:
Sowing, plant protection, weed control, fertilizer application, harvesting &
threshing and post harvest are some of the weather sensitive farm operations. Tillering
and vegetative phase, flowering and grain formation stage are other operation

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Station Crop growth Std. Effect of weather parameters
stage Met.
Week*
Pearl Jaipur Tillering 29 Water logging or moisture stress reduce tillering
Millet Ear emergence 33 High humidity & drizzling causes ergot
Grain filling 36 Moisture stress causes shriveling of grains
Jodhpur Early sown 23rd toPearl millet is sown with onset of monsoon after receiving sufficient
25th rainfall. If rainfall does occurs at emerging stage, it causes crust
formation and reduce the emergence percentage or plant population.
Crop requires rainfall at seedling stage for survival
Normal Normal sown 26th to Normal sowing after receiving good rain and after sowing light
sown 28th rainfall occurs crust formation of top soil takes place. The crop
yields depend on timely rainfall.
Late sown 29th to In late sown crop, yield reduces due to less or no rainfall at the time
31st of maturity caused by shortening of growing season due to moisture
stress.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on yield
on cost of gross returns net returns
cultivation
Jodhpur Pearlmillet Increase by Increase by 14.9 % Increase by 10.9 % Increase by 5.71 %
21.9%
Jaipur Pearl millet Decrease by Increase by 3.40 % Increase by 10.74 % Increase by 4.00 %
1.05 %
Pune Pearlmillet Increase by Increase by 9.4% Increase by 28.9% Increase by 26.8%
2.0%

52
 o Case studies

Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS recommendation in light Whether AAS What is the loss/gain achieved due to the
parameter of the prevailing weather for that Recommended recommendation (AAS vs non-AAS)
crucial to the operation action In total cost of In Net returns
crop followed cultivation(Rs/acre) (Rs/acre)
Kharif Pearl Intercultural like Rainfall 20thJuly to End 15th August With yes Rs 600/- Rs. 800/-
04 millet hoeing, weeding sufficient rainfall start hoeing and
broad casting of weeding and broadcasted urea.
Jodhpur N-fertilizers.
Kharif- Pearl Fertilizer Rainfall 31st Aug., 2004 . Forecast of no rain Yes Light rains occurred Negative impact on
04 millet Application Top dressing of urea is suggested in Top dressed fertilizer net returns
view of dry weather wasted, loss of Rs
Jaipur 114.6 Per acre
Kharif Pearl Irrigation Rainfall End of August to September . Yes Rs. 360/- Rs. 800
05 millet
Kharif Pearl Interculture Rainfall Jul 6 2004, Jul 27 2004 The sky will Yes
2004 Millet be cloudy Carry out interculture
operations in already sown crops, The AAS farmers received a yield of 12-15%
Pune especially hoeing, weeding more compared to the non-AAS farmers by
Kharif Pearl Harvesting Rainfall Sep 14 2004, Sep 17 2004 The sky Yes following the recommendation
2005 Millet will be partly cloudy. The harvesting
of bajra, and groundnut should be
Pune done at maturity as there is favorable
weather for harvesting.
Kharif- Pearl Sowing Temp., May 23 2006-Thisyear according to Yes
06 Millet rainfall forecast there will be timely onset and
good rainfall will occur. So it is
Pune advised to sow pulse crops.
Kharif Pearl Interculture rainfall Looking into the forecast of rains Followed Saving of human Contributed 49.8
2006 millet farmers are advised to defer hoeing labour, thus saving in percent to the net
Pune and weeding (29th July, 2006) cost of cultivation by saving over non
Rs 161.0/acre AAS
Kharif Pearl Top dressing of Top dressing Forecast of rains and farmers were Followed Saving in cost of Saving in net
2007 millet fertilizer of fertilizer advised not to top dress urea (27th cultivation by Rs returns over non
July, 2007) 320/- AAS farmers by Rs
495/-

53
o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Jaipur
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
In (kg/acre) (Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference

Seed (kg per acre) 1.4 1.5

Fertilizer(kg/acre 70 65

Herbicide (kg/acre) 0 0
265 268 -3
21.4 20.5 0.9
Pesticide(kg/acre) 0.2 0

Human labour (Mandays/acre) 9 10

Machine labour (Total hours/acre) 4.3 5.1

Station: Pune

Input Amount of input Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of cultivation (Rs/acre)
used (kg/acre) input (Q/acre)
AAS Non Difference AAS Non AAS Diff
AAS

Seed (kg/acre) 1.3 1.4

Fertilizer (kg/acre) 95 79
3825 3750 75
Human lab (mandays/acre) 34 30 26.8

Machine labour(hrs/acre) 12 11

Irrigation (no/acre) 0.7 0.1

54
 (c) Vegetables : Palak, Tomato, Capsicum,Onion,Potato

 Palak

o AAS units undertaking study on Palak

Hyderabad Season: Rabi

o General information of crop

Palak is a cool season crop requiring mild climate. It tolerates frost and high
temperature under good irrigation. Under high temperature conditions, early bolting
occurs and leaves pass through edible stage quickly with poor yield. Well fertile sandy
loam soils with good drainage is ideal. For good vegetative growth and yield, application
of nitrogen @ 20-25 kg/ha, after every cutting as top dressing is recommended. Pre
sowing irrigation and a light irrigation few days after sowing for better germination is
ideal. In winter season, irrigation is required at 10-15 days interval. Its first flush of
leaves become ready for cutting 3-4 weeks after sowing and subsequent cuttings are
taken up at 15-20 days interval, thus 6-8 cuttings can be taken. Generally winter crop
gives higher yield. An average yield of 8-12 t/ha of leaves can be obtained. The crop is
prone to insect pests like aphids and diseases like leaf spots. The triggering events for the
above pest and diseases are cloudy and wet weather.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing; Irrigation, Plant protection; Fertilizer application and Harvesting

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Important weather Effect of weather

Standard
Crop growth parameter related to parameter
Met. Week *
stage respective crop growth stage

For sowing
Sowing 40 Rainfall
Palak timely

Vegetative Incidence of
42-12 Rainfall and cloud cover
stage leaf spots

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

55
 o Case Studies

Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS Whether What is the loss/gain
parameter recommendatio AAS achieved due to the
crucial to n in light of the Recomm recommendation (AAS vs
the crop prevailing endation non AAS)
the weather for followed
Total cost of In Net
that operation
cultivation returns

Rabi-03 Palak Pesticides Cloudy Jan 27 2004 Yes Rs. -570.3 Rs.
Hyderabad spraying weather & (Carbendazim) (5.76%) 4129.2
Drizzling (26.75%)
Rabi-04 Palak Yes Rs.
Pesticides Cloudy Mar 11 2005 Rs. 703.5
1537.3
application weather (COC) (6.22%)
(8.68%)

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS
on cost of on gross returns net returns on yield
cultivation
Hyderabad Palak Decrease by Increase by Increase by 25.1 Increase by
9.4% 24.6% 24.4%

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Input Amount of Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of

input used input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
(kg/acre)
AAS Non AAS Non Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
AAS AAS

Seed (kgs/acre) 70 62

Fertilizer kg/acre) 787 833

Pesticide kg/acre) 51 71
17.5 14.0 3.4 23522 25955 -2433
Human labour
(mandays/acre) 189 172

Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 31 28

Irrigation (no/acre) 5 5

56
  Tomato

o AAS units undertaking study on Tomato

Hyderabad Season: Rabi

Coimbatore Season: Kharif
Solan Season: Kharif (Mar-Aug)
Bangalore Season: Rabi
Bhubaneshwar Season: Rabi

o General Information of the crop

Tomato a warm season vegetable and is also grown extensively in cool season.
The optimum temperature required for its cultivation is 15-27oC. At high and low
temperatures there is a low germination of seeds, poor plant growth, flower drop, poor
fruit set and ripening. Under extreme high and low temperature conditions, yield and
quality of fruit is reduced. Mild winter condition is ideal for seed germination, plant
growth, fruit set, fruit development, and ripening. Extensive rains adversely affect its fruit
set causing flower drop. Sandy loam soils rich in organic matters are ideal for its
cultivation. For raising healthy crop, application of green manure, FYM, Neem cake and
bio-fertilizers are beneficial. Boron and Zinc are important micro nutrients, required for
realizing higher yields. Frequent irrigation is essential for optimum plant growth, fruiting
and yield. The crop should be irrigated at 8-12 days interval. Generally open furrow
method of irrigation is followed. Multiple picking are taken in tomatoes. The crop is
prone to insect pests like sucking pests, fruit borer, leaf miner, and diseases like leaf
spots, blight and viral diseases. The triggering events for the above pest and diseases are
maximum, minimum temperatures, humidity and rainfall.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing, Irrigation, Plant protection, Fertilizer application, weeding, irrigation,

picking and harvest

57
 o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Station Crop growth Standard Met. Important weather parameter Effect of weather parameter
stage Week* related to respective crop
growth stage

Tomato Hyderabad Sowing 40 Rainfall

Timely sowing

Seedling 41-44 Rainfall, cloud cover

Seedling diseases

Vegetative 45-48 Cloud cover and rainfall Incidence of leaf spots and blight

Flowering and 49-60 Cloud cover, temperature Incidence of insect pests, leaf spots, blight and
Fruiting And rainfall viral diseases

Tomato Coimbatore All stages Temperature Day temperature 36°C and Night temperature
18°C favours tomato growth.
Tomato planted in June/ November /December
gives higher yield and fetches good price.
High temperature during summer season makes
the Pollen to wither and pollination is greatly
affected. High temperature makes the leaves to
curl .To reduce the ill effects of high temperature
mulching can be practiced.

All stages Rainfall Rainy weather is favourable for leaf spot disease.

Tomato Bangalore Early sown – 8 Rainfall & Relative humidity Due to high humidity and rainfall causes high
Vegetative & incidence of leaf curl and fruit rot.
flowering stage
Timely sown - 10 Rainfall, temperature and Heavy rainfall causes high incidence of leaf curl
Vegetative & relative humidity and fruit rot.
Flowering stage

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

58
 o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Station: Hyderabad
Input Amount of input used Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of
input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)

AAS Non AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
AAS

Seed (gms/acre) 913 772

Fertilizer kg/acre) 856 899

Pesticide kg/acre) 13 12
280 246 34253 34648 -395
34
Human labour (mandays/acre) 176 154

Machine labour (hrs/acre) 16 15

Irrigation (no/acre) 5 6

Station: Solan
Input Amount of input used Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of
input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
AAS

Seedlings (100 per bundle) 85 113

FYM (kg/acre) 2079 1374

Fertilizer kg/acre) 190 25 107 85 18790 11973 6817

22

Pesticide (kg/acre) 7 5

Human labour (mandays/acre) 82 63

59
 Station: Bhubaneshwar
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation (Rs./acre)
(Rs/Acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference

Seed (gms/acre) 330 275

FYM (kg/acre) 1500 960
Fertilizer (kgs/acre) 913 590
Pesticide (kgs/acre) 596 250
16876 13676 3200 6330 4906 1424
Human labour (mand/ac) 1575 1575
Machine labour (hr/acre) 580 626
Irrigation (no/acre) 530 515
Assoc.cost (Rs/acre) 306 115
Station: Bangalore
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input (Rs/acre) Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (gms/acre) 2711 2840
FYM (kg/acre) 954 1017
Fertilizer (kgs/acre) 995 1112
Pesticide (kgs/acre) 196 302
19084 17867 1217 9850 10532 -682
Human labour (mand/ac) 2469 2667
Bullock labour (hr/acre) 167 233
Machine labour (hr/acre) 1258 1258
Irrigation (no/acre) 1100 1100
Station: Coimbatore

Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (gms/acre) 76 86
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 318 332
Pesticide (kgs/acre) 4 5
Human labour 89 79 10 5532 5885 -353
(mandays/acre) 101 94
Machine labour (hr/acre) 5 6
Irrigation (no/acre) 12 13

60
 o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather parameter Date of AAS Whether AAS What is the loss/gain achieved due to
crucial to crop recommendation in light Recommendation the recommendation
the of the prevailing weather followed (AAS vs non AAS)
for that operation In Total cost of In Net returns
cultivation
Rabi-04 Tomato Pesticides Cloud cover, Dt .Nov 5 2004 Rs. 700 Rs.2000
Hyderabad Yes
application Rainfall (Mancozeb) (5.63%) (11.32 %)
Rabi 2005 Pesticides Temperature Dt. Dec 13 2005, Yes
Rs. 394 (3%) Rs. 2267 (10%)
spraying (Dimethoate)
Kharif 2004 Tomato Rainfall Aug 3 2004; Sep 14 2004 ; Yes
Coimbatore Irrigation rain expected so save - Rs. 7440
irrigation cost
Rabi2004-05 Tomato Inter cultivation Rainfall and Relative Dec 24, 25, 27 and 29 Yes 876 / ac 1800 /ac
Bangalore Plant protection humidity and 2004 and Jan 6 7 8 and 9
and staking temperature 2005 Recmm: No rain is
measures and forested go for Inter
harvesting cultivation , spraying and
harvesting the crop

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on gross Impact of AAS on net Impact of AAS on yield
cost of cultivation returns returns
Bhubaneshwar Tomato Increase by 10.9% Increase by 11.2% Increase by 11.4% Increase by 23.4%
Bangalore Tomato Decrease by 6.5% Increase by 6.8% Increase by 25.9% Increase by 6.8%
Coimbatore Tomato Decrease by 1.6% Increase by 12.3% Increase by 16.3% Increase by 14.6%
Hyderabad Tomato Decrease by 1.14% Increase by 19.0% Increase by 30.2% Increase by 13.7%
Solan Tomato Increase by 56.94% Increase by 77.14% Increase by 80.93% Increase by 26.09%

61
  Capsicum

o AAS units undertaking study on Capsicum

Solan Season: Kharif (March-August)

o General information of crop

Capsicum also known as Shimla Mirch is mostly cultivated in loamy or sandy
loam soils rich in organic carbon matter with pH of 6-7. Heavy soils are also favourable
under rainfed conditions. But in Himachal Pradesh it is widely cultivated under irrigated
conditions. The major source of irrigation is natural resources like spring water.. The
Capsicum are sown by indirect methods where in seedlings are raised in nurseries. After
the seedlings attain a height of 10-15 cm in 4-6 weeks, they are transplanted in the pits
made at a distance of 45x45 cm. Transplanting is mainly carried out in the evening. The
crop require frequent irrigation with well drainage system. The most critical stages are
flowering and fruit setting. Ripe fruits are harvested at frequent intervals. Post harvesting
handling of Capsicum is most important for uniform colour development.

o Weather sensitive farm operations

Sowing, transplanting, irrigation are some the weather sensitive farm operations.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of Impact of Impact of Impact of AAS

AAS on cost AAS on gross AAS on net on yield
of returns returns
cultivation
Solan Capsicum Increase by Increase by Increase by Increase by
2.18% 57.28% 61.26% 20.07%

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Solan
Input Amount of input Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of
used input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non Diff AAS Non Diff
AAS AAS

Seedlings (100 per bundle) 117 134

FYM (kg/acre) 2187 1379

Fertilizer kg/acre) 222 30 44 37 19939 13103 6836

7
Pesticide (kg/acre) 7 5

Human labour
(mandays/acre) 83 63

62
  Onion

o AAS units undertaking study on Onion

Pune Season: Rabi

o General information of crop

Onion is an important commercial crop grown mostly in the rabi season in India.
Red and white varieties of onion are cultivated in the country. India is the second largest
producer of onion in the world with a production of 4 million tones. In India, the major
onion growing states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Onion can thrive well under wide range of climate therefore, it can be grown in all
the seasons or year round. Extremes temperatures (heat/cold) or excessive rainfall are not
suitable for growing onion. One ploughing followed by two to three harrowing are
necessary for preparation of land. Mostly flat beds are preferred or it can be grown on
ridges and furrow layout.

o Weather sensitive farm operations

Ploughing, transplanting, irrigation, Weeding, Plant protection are some of
weather sensitive farm operations.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop growth stage Slandered Important Weather Effect of weather
Met. week* parameter related to parameter
Onion respective crop
growth stage
Sowing seeds 34 Warm Temperature
Emergence in raised 35 Warm Temperature Germination satisfactory
beds
Seedling growth 35-41 Warm Temperature Seedling growth satisfactory

Transplanting 42 Cool temperature. Establishment & growth

Humidity upto 85% satisfactory Increased
Delay transplanting bolting
Vegetative growth stage 42-45 Cool temperature. Faster growth
Humidity upto 85%
Bulb formation stage 46 Cool temperature, Faster growth
Humidity upto 85%
Bulb development stage 47- Cool temperature, Satisfactory growth
Humidity upto 70%
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of AAS on
on cost of on gross returns on net returns yield
cultivation
Pune Onion Increase by 0.9% Increase by Increase by Increase by 30.2%
20.4% 30.1%

63
 o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg/acre) 3.5 3.4
Fertilizer (kg/acre) 154 173
Pesticide (kg/acre) 1.0 0.9
Human labour
30.2% 7979 7912 67
(mandays/acre) 54 47
Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 19 15
Irrigation (no: acre) 5.0 5.1
o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS recommendation in Whether AAS Gain/loss due to the
parameter crucial light of the prevailing weather for recommendation recommendation
to the crop that operation followed (AAS vs Non AAS)
Rabi 04-05 Onion Plant Cool Temperature Nov 23 2004, Dec 212004, Dec 28 Recommendation The AAS farmers gained
protection humidity up to 2004 There is decrease in minimum followed by 8-12% in total yield
85%. temperature the cold condition prevail when compared to the
during coming four days Thrips, non-AAs farmers by
jassids and leaf blight on onion following the advisory
should be controlled by spraying
Endosulfan 2 ml + Dithane M-45, 3
gram per liter water.
Rabi05-06 Sowing Warm Oct 25 & 28 2005Due to prediction
of rise in maximum temperature the
period is favorable for transplanting
of onion seedlings on flat bed
Rabi 06-07 Irrigation Temperature Nov 7 2006. Dry weather so Irrigate
the crop at 10-12 days interval
Interculture Cool Temperature, Do the interculture operation like
humidity up to weeding, hoeing.
85%.

64
  Potato

o AAS units undertaking study on Potato

Anand Season: Rabi

o General information of crop

Potato is generally grown in Kheda, Anand, Mehsana, and Banaskantha districts
of State. Kufri Badshah, Kufri Pokhraj, Kufri Lauvker, Kufri Jawahar and Kufri Bahar
are the important varieties of the crop. The crop requires cool climate. Sandy or sandy
loam soil is favourable for the potato crop. Third week of November is optimum date of
planting of potato. The crop requires fertilizer at the rate of 200+ 100 + 100 NPK kg/ha
for proper growth and yield. Potato requires 8-10 irrigations at 8-10 days interval.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing, plant protection and harvest are some of the important weather sensitive
operations.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop growth Standard Important weather Effect of weather parameter
stage Met. Week* parameter related to
Potato respective crop
growth stage
Cloudy sky or unseasonal
Cloudy sky, rainfall, rainfall followed by hot and
49-50
humidity humid days favours early blight
Vegetative disease.
Cloudy sky or unseasonal
50-51 Cloudy sky, rainfall rainfall favours the angular leaf
spot disease.
Cloudy sky or unseasonal
Cloudy sky, rainfall, rainfall followed by hot and
Tuber bulking 01-09
humidity humid days, favours late blight
disease.
High soil temperature causes
Maturity/ rotting, degeneration and
12-13 Soil temperature
Harvest malformation in the tubers.

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS Impact of Impact of
cost of cultivation on gross returns AAS on net AAS on yield
returns
Anand Potato Decrease by 3.1% Increase by Increase by Increase by
10.3% 13.5% 5.4%

65
o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS Whether What is the loss/gain achieved due to the
parameter recommendation in AAS recommendation (AAS vs non AAS)
crucial to the light of the prevailing Recomme In Total cost of In Net returns
crop weather for that ndation cultivation
operation (write the followed
recommendation also)
Rabi Potato Planting Temperature Nov 7 2006 Yes . AAS farmer saved Rs. Higher net return
(2005-06) The planting should be 692/acre by following (Rs. 37889/acre ) as
carried out in the first timely planting of compared to Non-
fortnight November or potato. AAS farmers(Rs.
as per the optimum 33179/acre).
temperature of 22-23 º
C
Rabi Potato Irrigation Rainfall Dec 10-12 2006 As no Yes AAS farmers have Higher net return to
(2006-07) forecast of rainfall, go invested Rs. 748/acre the tune of Rs.
for irrigation for irrigation as per the 31716/ace as
advice of AAB. The compared to Non-
Non-AAS farmers AS farmers (Rs.
spent Rs. 186/acre 28167/acre).
more by not applying
required irrigation at
proper time.

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Rs/acre) input (q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed 1174 1060
Fertilizer 232 209 84 78 6
7 7
1547 1596 -49
Irrigation
Pesticide 1 1

66
 (d) Cash crops : Cotton, Jute

 Cotton

o AAS units undertaking study on Cotton

Hyderabad Season: Kharif

Hisar Season: Kharif
Coimbatore Season: Rabi (August-February)

o General information of crop

Cotton is grown in an area of 10 lakh hectares in black cotton soils under rainfed
conditions of Andhra Pradesh during Kharif season. In Hisar, Cotton crop is sown in May
(timely sowing) under assured irrigation facilities. In Coimbatore its normal date of sowing
is around 15th August. It is a commercial crop grown under high input conditions. Cotton
is an indeterminate plant and any weather aberrations during crop season will adversely
effect the square, flower and boll shedding. It cannot stand continuous wet and overcast
weather at any stage. Low light intensities lower the yield. The optimum temperature
range for vegetative growth is 21-27oC. During the period of fruiting, warm days and
cool nights with large diurnal variations are conducive for good boll and fiber
development. Since it is grown under high input conditions, it is prone to severe pest and
diseases. Many of the pests and diseases are weather driven, right advice at right time
based on the weather will help in effective control of pests and diseases thereby reducing
the expenditure and thereby improving the yields.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing, Fertilizer application, Plant protection, Picking (Harvesting),irrigation are the
weather sensitive farm operations.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of AAS on Impact of Impact of

on cost of gross returns AAS on net AAS on yield
cultivation returns
Hisar Cotton Decrease by 4 % Increase by 3.0% Increase by Increase by
6% 23.3%

Coimbatore Decrease by Increase by 0.6% Increase by Increase by

6.13% 16.9% 0.8%

Hyderabad Decrease by Increase by 2.2% Increase by Increase by

18.19% 20.5% 0.8%

67
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Station Crop growth stage Standard Imp weather parameter related Effect of weather
Met. to respective crop growth stage parameter
Week*

Cotton Hyderabad Seedling stage 25-27 Rainfall Timely sowing

Vegetative 28-32 Rainfall and cloud cover Incidence of sucking

Pests

Square initiation 33-34 Rainfall and cloud cover Drop in flower buds and
incidence of
pests and diseases

Flowering 35-39 Rainfall and cloud cover Flower drop, attack of

pests and diseases

Boll initiation and 36-42 Rainfall and cloud cover Boll drop, attack of pests and diseases
development

Boll maturity and harvest 43-47 Rainfall Fiber damage

Hisar Timely sown 19 & 20

Germination Temp, moisture High temp burns young seedlings.
High temp & moisture stress sheds
Flower bud/Square 31, 32 & Temp, moisture flower buds/squares.
formation 33 High temp & moisture stress sheds
Boll development Temp, moisture bolls.

35, 36, 37
& 38
Coimbatore Establishment From sowing 1. Air Temperature Optimum temperature is 18 to 21°C.
to head initiation 2. Soil temperature Soil temperature <20°C – Liable for
attack of seed borne pathogens and
smothering by weeds.

68
 Vegetative stage -from 1. Temperature Minimum temperature for growth is
head initiation to head 15°C; optimum temperature is 27 to
emergence 30°C, >38°C is harmful. Night
temperature >21°C delayed the floral
bud differentiation.
1.Water stress will lead to early
maturity
2. Rainfall during flowering
reduces the yield
3. Severe water stress during flowering
Flowering period cause pollination failure or
-from head 1. Rainfall head blast.
emergence to 2. Temperature 4. Boot leaf stages very sensitive
seed set to temperature
5. low temperatures (<15°C) and high
temperatures (>35°C) lead to poor
seed set, problems with ripening and
reduced yield Water sensitive
stage
1. Optimum temperature 26°C
2. Temperature >28°C affects the
yield
Yield formation 3. Soil moisture stress affects
1. Temperature
(from seed set grain filling and reduces the
2. Soil moisture stress
to physiological yield
3. Diurnal variation
maturity) 4. Day / night temperature
regimes of 33/28°C arrested
floral development.
5. Sensitive to water stress
Ripening from 1. Cloudy and wet weather will favour
physiological 1. Rainfall head mould and sugary
maturity to harvest disease.

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

69
 o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS recommendation in Whether AAS What is the loss/gain achieved due
parameter light of the prevailing weather for Recommendati to the recommendation (AAS vs
crucial to the that operation (write the on followed non AAS)
crop recommendation also)
In Total cost of In Net returns
cultivation
Kharif 04 Cotton Irrigation Rainfall 23 July, 04 (Rain expected, Followed Loss in net returns
Hisar withheld irrigation)
Spray Temp& 21 Sept, 04 (No rains, spray crop) Followed Gain in total cost and net returns
Cloudiness
Kharif 06 Irrigation Rainfall 4 July, 06 (No rain, spray crop) Followed Gain in total cost and net return
Kharif 05 Cotton Pesticides Cloud cover, Dt.09-08-2005 Yes Rs. 2223 Rs. 2255
Hyderabad spraying Rainfall (Imidachloprid) (18 %) (22 %)
Kharif -06 Pesticides Cloud cover, Dt.29-09-2006 Yes Rs. 3682 Rs. 4361
spraying Rainfall (Monocrotophos) (26.39%) (38.95%)
Rabi 2004 Cotton Fertilizer Minimum 29-30Sep 2004. Decrease in Yes Gain in net returns as well as in the
Coimbatore application Temperature minimum temperature expected, yield
give top dressing of nitogenous
fertilizer

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Hisar
Input (per acre) Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
(Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non- Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
AAS
Seed (kg) 5 5
Fertilizer (kg) 105 90
FYM (ton) 4 -- 10.6 8.6 2.0 11550 12377 - 827
Irrigation (No.) 3 5
Herbicide -- --
Pesticide (Rs) 879 834
Labour (Rs) 3000 3300

70
 Station: Coimbatore

Input Amount of input used Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of cultivation
input (Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
AAS

Seed (gms/acre) 3.5 3.6

Fertilizer (kg/acre) 269 262

Pesticide (kgs/acre) 2 3
12.6 12.2 0.4 4420 4660 -240
Human labour (man days/acre) 49 59

Machine labour (hr/acre) 12 16

Irrigation (no/acre) 12 13

Station: Hyderabad
Input Amount of input used Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of
input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff

Seed (kg/acre) 7.8 7.2

Fertilizer kg/acre) 233 302

Pesticide kg/acre) 5 8
24.8 24.6 27454 33560 -6106
0.2
Human labour (mandays/acre) 42 34

Machine labour (hrs/acre) 8 10

Irrigation (no/acre) 0.5 0.4

71
  Jute

o AAS units undertaking study on Jute

Kalyani Season: Kharif

o General information of crop

Jute crop from its sowing to harvesting faced several constrains . Usually Farmers
of this zone sown the crop using pre monsoon shower but in the last year amount and
distribution of pre monsoon rain was very poor . So they faced severe problems during
sowing time . Some marginal and Progressive farmers sown their crop using irrigation.
Onset of monsoon was in time but break of monsoon during active vegetative period
created water stress.
Due to high humidity and temperature variation initiation of various insect and
disease was observed like Bihar hairy caterpillar, Jute semilopper rotting etc . The
intensity was so severe that NAAS farmers were confused to control the infestation and
get help from us regarding this matter. Lastly in the harvesting, retting and washing crop
was in critical condition due to lack of rainfall.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Raising of seedling; Plant protection; Harvesting; Retting

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Station Important weather
Growth stages Weather parameters
elements
Jute Kalyani Germination Temperature 1-2 pre-sowing irrigation is needed for optimum
Rainfall germination if rain breaks during germination
period with severe heat.
Vegetative 1. Temperature High temperature, high moisture content, high
stage 2. Rainfall relative humidity and mild wind are required for
3. Wind optimum growth of jute crop. Low temperature
4. Humidity (< 20 0C) at this stage cause premature flowering,
and thereby deteriorates quality of the fiber.
Harvesting & 1. Temperature Optimum temperature is (34 0C) essential for
Retting 2. Rainfall good retting and good quality of water required
for good fiber.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of AAS on yield
on cost of on gross returns on net returns
cultivation

Kalyani Jute Decrease by Increase by 11% Increase by 21% Increase by 14.1%

24.9%

72
 o Case studies

Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS recommendation Whether AAS What is the loss/gain achieved due to
parameter in light of the prevailing Recommendat the recommendation (AAS vs non AAS)
crucial to the weather for that operation ion followed
crop (write the recommendation
In Total cost of In Net
also)
cultivation returns

Jute a)Raising of Temperature 1. Some times at high

seedling Rainfall temperature with severe  Rs.1915 per acre could be saved by
Wind drought results dry up the AAS compared to NAAS in total
b) Plant Humidity seedlings. cost of cultivation by following the
2. Optimum temperature 22 AAS recommendation.
protection
to 30°C
c) Harvesting 3. 5-7 cm water require for  The yield for AAS was higher by
active root development. 0.83 Q/acre (main product and 1.05
d) Retting
4. Very high wind speed Q/acre (By product) as compared to
leads to lodging of seedlings the NAAS.
and tip drying .(50DAS)

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Input Amount of Input used Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation(Rs./acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
(Q/Acre) (Q/Acre) (Q/Acre)
Seed (Kg/acre) 2.5 3
Fertilizer (Kg/acre 48 56
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no./acre) 1 0.3 33 29 4 4510 6005 -1495
Plant protection chemical 0 0
Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts./acre) 0.5 0.7

73
  Tobacco

o AAS units undertaking study on Tobacco

Anand Season: Kharif

o General information of crop

Bidi tobacco is generally grown in Anand, Vadodara, Kheda and Panchmahals
districts. For irrigated region, the high yielding varieties are Anand-2, Anand-119,
Gujarat Ttobacco-5, Gujarat Tobacco-9 and Gujarat Tobacco Hybrid-1. In some parts of
Panchmahals district Anand-119 is grown as unirrigated crop. Tobacco is transplanted
during 2nd week of August to 3rd week of September. Crop requires 3 to 4 irrigations at 20
days interval. Crop is transplanted after green manuring of sunhemp. The chemical
fertilizer requirement is 180 + 0 +0 NPK kg/ha.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Seedling, irrigation application, spray, harvesting are the main weather sensitive
operations.
o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop growth Standard Important weather Effect of weather parameter

stage Met. parameter related to
Week* crop growth stage
Seedling 30-33 Temperature, Humidity High moisture cause damping off
High temperature deteriorate the
40-44 Temperature
leaf quality
High soil moisture and low
Soil moisture,
Vegetative 45-52 temperature favours growth of
temperature
Orobanche
Low temperature favours the leaf
49-05 Temperature
curl disease
Maturity 9-13 Rainfall Rainfall deteriorate the leaf quality
Cloudy sky and rainfall affect the
Harvesting 9-13 Cloudiness, rainfall quality of the leaves during
harvesting and sun drying.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of Impact of Impact of AAS

on cost of AAS on gross AAS on net on yield
cultivation returns returns
Anand Tobacco Increase by 2.8 Increase by Increase by Increase by
% 11.7% 21.5 % 0.9%

74
 o Case Studies

Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS Whether What is the loss/gain achieved due to
parameter recommendatio AAS the recommendation (AAS vs non AAS)
crucial to n in light of the Recomm
the crop prevailing endation In Total cost of In Net returns
followed cultivation (Rs/acre) (Rs/acre)
weather for that
operation
Kharif Tobacco Fertilizer Rain fall 15/8/2005 Yes AAS farmers invested By timely
(2005- application As there was no total 1535 Rs/acre for application of
06) forecast for timely application of fertilizer his net
rainfall, the top dressing. He only return was
recommended invested Rs. 17 /acre higher to the
basal dose of as compared to Non- tune of Rs.
fertilizer should AAS farmer. 667/acre as
be applied compared to
Non-AAS
farmer.
Kharif Irrigation Rain fall 16 to 19/1/2007 Yes AAS farmers invested By timely
(2006- light irrigation total Rs. 700/acre for application of
07) recommended for irrigation as per the irrigation as per
tobacco AAB advisory. AAB the crop need
advised irrigation need his net return
based time and was higher to
frequency of irrigation. the tune of Rs.
For timely and 655/acre as
effective irrigation he compared to
has invested only Rs. Non-AAS
150/acre more as farmers.
compared to Non-AAS
farmers.

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Input Amount of Input Difference in yield due to the Difference in the cost of
used (Kgs/Acre) input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)

AAS Non-AAS AAS Non- Difference AAS Non- Difference

AAS AAS
Seed 2 2
Fertilizer 184 209 6.4 4.5 0.9
760 739 21
Irrigation 6 6
Pesticide 1 1

75
(e) Oil Seeds : Mustard

 Mustard

o AAS units undertaking study on Mustard

Hisar Season: Rabi
Kalyani Season: Rabi

o General Information about the crop

In India rape and mustard is grown during winter season and it is observed that
the crop needs about 180C to 250C temperature, low humidity, practically no rain
especially at the time of flowering. Rainfall, high humidity and cloudy weather are not
good for the crop during winter, as it invites aphids and the crop gets spoiled completely.
However, under rainfed conditions one to two pre-flowering rains help in boosting the
grain yield. Excessive cold and frost are harmful to the crop.
Generally the rape and mustards thrive best in medium or heavy loam soils except
taramira which is grown lighter soils butt heavy soils subjected to water logging should
be avoided as the crop cannot tolerate such conditions. Though the crop is grown during
winter season and there is very little chance of water logging but still due to heavy winter
rains the water may get accumulated and cause a temporary water logging. Very light
soils usually cause a serious moisture stress and a poor crop growth is observed. Saline
and alkaline soils are often not fit for the crop though it has good tolerance to such
conditions.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing, land preparation, irrigation application, chemical spray, harvesting and
threshing were the weather sensitive operations.

o Measuring the Impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of Impact of Impact of Impact of AAS on

AAS on cost AAS on AAS on net yield
of cultivation gross returns
returns
Hisar Mustard Decrease by 6 Increase by Increase by Increase by 16.7%
% 3.9% 7%
Kalyani Mustard Decrease by Increase by Increase by Increase by 0.5%
17.3% 11.3% 14.3%
Jodhpur Mustard Decrease by Increase by Increase by Increase by 7.14 %
1.8 % 9.5 % 23 %

76
 o Weather sensitive crop growth stages
Crop Station Crop growth Standard Imp. weather parameter Effect of weather parameter
stage Met. Week related to respective crop
* growth stage
Mustard Hisar Timely sown
Germination 42 & 43 Temp High temp burns young seedlings
Low temp & fog hinder flower & siliquae
Flowering 51 & 52 Temp, fog etc formation
Low temp & fog hinder seed setting
Seed setting
1&2 Temp, cloudiness, fog Small seed size due to high temp
Temp
Ripening 10, 11 & 12 Low temp & fog hinder germination
Temp Low temp & fog hinder flower & siliquae
Late sown formation
Germination 45 & 46 Temp, fog etc Low temp & fog hinder seed setting
Flowering
1&2 High temp causes force maturity
Temp and fog
2&3
Seed setting
Ripening 11,12 &13 Temp
Kalyani Vegetative Temperature Rainfall, Low temperature favours the growth.
/branching Wind High temperature and cloudy weather is not
favorable for growth and also cause infestation of
aphid.
High rainfall is not good but rain at branching and
pre-flowering stage is beneficial of good yield.
Very high wind speed leads to lodging of
seedlings and tip drying.
Harvesting and Temperature Relative humidity Low temperature increase the oil percentage
threshing Light Optimum temperature 32 to 34°C.
Bright sunshine is required for threshing and
drying of the grain.
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

77
 o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS Whether What is the loss/gain achieved
parameter recommendation in AAS due to the recommendation
crucial to light of the prevailing Recommend (AAS vs non AAS)
the crop weather for that ation In Total cost of In Net returns
operation (write the followed cultivation
recommendation also)
Rabi04- Mustard (a) Land Temperature 1. Low temperature Yes
05 Kalyani Relative favours the growth.  Rs.940 per acre could be saved
preparation
humidity 2. High temperature and by AAS compared to NAAS in
(b) Sowing Light cloudy weather is not total cost of cultivation by
Wind favourable for growth following the AAS
(c) Plant
and also cause infestation recommendation.
protection of aphid.
3. High rainfall is not  The yield for AAS were
(d)
good but rain at higher by 0.02Q/acre as
Harvesting branching and pre- compared to the NAAS.
flowering stage is
and threshing
beneficial of good yield.
4. Very high wind speed
leads to lodging of
seedlings and tip drying.
(30DAS)
Rabi 05- Mustard Plant Cloudy Middle of December to Yes Rs 200-250/- Rs. 1500/-
06 Jodhpur protection weather Middle of February
Rabi 06- Mustard Sowing Rainfall 10 Oct, 06 (No rain, Followed Less total cost, gain in net returns
07 Hisar sowing on conserved soil
moisture
Irrigation Temp 2 Jan, 07 (Frost likely, Followed Gain in total cost and net return
irrigate crop)
Spray Rainfall 6 Feb, 07 (No rain, Followed but Gain in total cost and loss in net return
spray crop) heavy rains
followed
78
 o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Hisar
Input(per Amount of Input Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
acre) used (Kg/acre) (Q/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
Seed (kg) 2 2
Fertilizer 120 95
(kg) 6.3 5.4 0.9 5814 5887 -73
FYM (ton) -- --
Irrigation 2 3
(No.)
Herbicide -- --
Pesticide Rs) 451/- 390/-
Labour (Rs) 1400/- 1475/-

Station: Kalyani
Input (acres) Amount of Input Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
used (Kg/acre) (Q/Acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non- AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non-AAS Difference
AAS
Seed (Kg) 3.4 3.8
Fertilizer Kg) 50 55
FYM 0 0
Irrigation (no.) 2 2
4485 5425 -940
Plant protection 6.3 5.8 0.5
chemical
Herbicide 0 0
Pesticide (lts) 0.5 0.5

79
(f) Pulses : Gram, Redgram/Tur, Field Bean

 Gram

o AAS units undertaking study on Gram

Raipur Season: Rabi
Jaipur Season: Rabi

o General information of crop

Gram requires cool and humid climate. The seeds of the crop can germinate over a wide
range of temperature from 10 – 45°C. Temperature around the 15-20°C is optimum for its
growth. The ideal soil temperature for the nodulation is 15-25°C. Soil temperature
exceeding 30°C affects the nodulation. Excessive rains after the sowing and at flowering
are harmful. The highest pod formation has been received at RH from 20-40%. Above
this have negative influence on seed setting and below this results in reduced yield.

o Weather sensitive farm operation:

Sowing, Plant protection and Harvesting operation.

o Weather sensitive growth stages

Crop Crop Growth Standard Imp weather parameter Effect of weather
Stage Met. related to respective crop parameter
Week* growth stage

Gram Raipur Flowering and 52 Cloudy weather Incidence of insect pest

pod formation along with powdery
Timely
mildew
sown
Late sown Pod 17 High temperature Leads to forced
Development maturity and small
grains.
Jaipur cause blight
Pre-flowering 50 Cloudy weather

reduces yield
Flowering 1 Frost attack

spoils seeds
Pod filling 7 Winter showers

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on
cost of cultivation gross returns net returns yield
Raipur Gram Decrease by Increase by Increase by Increase by 16%
3.2% 14.1% 47.7%
Jaipur Gram Decrease by 4.72 Increase by 8.91 Increase by 11.32 Increase by 7.14 %
% % %

80
 o Case studies
Season Crop Weather Date of AAS Whether AAS What is the loss/gain
Parameters Recommendation in light Recommendat Achieved due to recommendation
Crucial to of the prevailing Weather ion (AAS Vs Non AAS)
the crop (Also write recommendation) Followed In Total cost In net returns
of Cultivation
Rabi04-05 Gram Irrigation In View of forecast of rains Followed Saving of Rs Contributed
Jaipur farmer are advised to defer 111/acre 19.5 percent to
irrigation at pod formation the net saving
stage (23rd Jan., 2004) over non AAS
Rabi05-06 Interculture Looking into the forecast of Followed Saving of human Contributed
rains farmers are advised labour, thus saving 11.6 percent to
to defer hoeing and weeding in cost of the net saving
(30th Dec., 2005) cultivation by Rs over non AAS
162.4/acre
Rabi Plant Looking into the drop in Followed Increases cost of Frost occurred
(2006-7) protection minimum temperature by 3-4 cultivation by Rs and AAS
O
C farmers are advised to adopt 250.0 / Acre farmers saved
protection against frost (23 their crop
January, 2007) against frost

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Raipur
Input (per acre) Amount of Input Difference in yield due to Difference in the cost of
used the input ( Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non- AAS Non- Diff AAS Non- Differe
AAS AAS AAS nce
Seed (kg ) 30 31
Fertilizer(kg) 25 15
Herbicide (kg) 0 0 2.9 2.5 0.4 3372 3485 -113
Pesticide(l) 1 1
Human labour (mandays) 22 12
Machine labour (Total hours) 4 4
Irrigation (no.) (per farmer) 1 2

Station: Jaipur
Input (acre) Amount of input Difference in yield due to Difference in cost of
used Input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
32 34
Seed (kg)
39 38
Fertilizer (kg)
0 0
Herbicide (kg)
1 0
494 532 -38
Pesticide (kg) 18 16 2
23 27
Human labour (mandays)
6 6
Machine labour (hrs)

Irrigation (no) 2 2

81
  Redgram/Tur

 AAS units undertaking study on Redgram

Bangalore Season: Kharif

o General information of Crop

Redgram (Cajanus cajan) is the second most important pulse crop which constitutes
14.44 % and 15.95 % national pulse acreage and production with a productivity of 1200
kg/ha. It has multiple uses . Pigeon pea is perennial and perhaps evolved as a backyard
crop. It is a warm season crop but adapts well to lower altitudes of tropics and subtropics
(0 to 1500m), in well-distributed rainfall of 500-900mm. Temperature regime is 10˚ to
40˚C but optimum is 20 to 28˚C. It is a mesophyte well adapted to drought prone areas
but does not tolerate water logging and frost. Root system is deep and expansive and
breaks the plough pan hence it is called a ‘biological plough’.
It is grown in wide range of soils. The most suitable pH range is 5 to 8; pigeonpea
tolerates salinity and alkalinity to certain extent. The critical EC is 1.5 dsm-1. But does
not tolerate acidity, due to Al toxicity. However, this can be corrected by liming.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

The weather sensitive farm operation is earthing up, plant protection measures
and harvesting.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Crop growth Std Important weather Effect of weather
stage Met. parameter related to parameter
Week* respective crop
growth stage
Redgram Bangalore –Vegetative & 18 Rainfall & Relative Dry weather Abortion of
/tur Early sown flowering humidity flowers, high incidence of
stage pod borer

Timely Vegetative & 22 Rainfall, temperature Due to prolong dry spells at

sown - Flowering and relative humidity flowering & pod formation
stage stage results in poor yields,
lack of moisture at harvest
stage is a major problem
leads to poor grain filling
and lesser yields.

Late sown – Pod 26-28 Rainfall, wind speed .High incidence of pod borer
development and relative humidity. as a result causes reduction
and harvest of pod yield.

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

82
 o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS on net Impact of AAS on
on cost of gross returns returns yield
cultivation
Bangalore Red gram Decrease by Increase by 14.8% Increase by 32.7% Increase by 14.8%
14.1%
o Case studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS AAS What is the loss/gain
parameter recommendation in Rcm achieved due to the
crucial to light of the prevailing m recommendation (AAS vs.
the crop weather for that follo non AAS)
operation (write the wed In Total cost In Net
recommendation also) of cultivation returns
Kharif Red Inter Rainfall and 22, 23, 25 Sept , 28-30 Yes 762 / ac 2523 /ac
2005 gram cultivation , Relative August , 17,19,20 and 21
Plant humidity Jan06 Recon : No rain
protection is forested go for
measures spraying, it should be
and harvesting before initiation of
flower and harvesting
the crop
Kharif Red Inter Rainfall and 25-27 Sept and 12-19 Yes 549 / ac 1399 /ac
2006 gram cultivation , Relative Oct and 1-3 Nov
Plant humidity Recon : No rain is
protection forested go for spraying
measures and harvesting the crop
and harvesting

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Input Amount of Input Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of cultivation
used In (Rs/acre) In (Rs/acre) (Rs/acre)
AAS Non- AAS Non-AAS Difference AAS Non- Difference
AAS AAS

Seed 110 125

FYM 880 1152

Fertilizer 517 609

14236 12405 1831 4078 4751 -673
Pesticide 393 523

Human labour 1120 1317

Bullock labour 200 167

Machine
labour 858 858

83
  Field Bean

o AAS units undertaking study on Field Bean

Bangalore Season: Rabi

o General information of crop

Field bean (Dolichos lablab L.) is one of the most ancient among the cultivated
crop. It is grown throughout the tropical regions of Asia, Africa and America. The crop
is multipurpose and can be used as pulse, vegetable forage but farmers grow it for seed
purpose due to high profit over the other sources. It is indigenous and commercially
cultivated in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.
It is relatively cool season crop and it is best adapted to tropical and sub-tropical areas.
Most of the varieties grow well in temperature ranging between 18˚C to 30˚C. Severe
frost damages the crop. The crop is sensitive to photoperiod and both short day and long
day types are available. It can be grown in wide range of soil except alkaline and saline
soils.

o Weather sensitive farm operation

The weather sensitive farm operation is earthling up, plant protection measures and
harvesting.

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Important weather
Std Met. parameter related to Effect of weather
Crop growth stage
Week* respective crop parameter
growth stage
Early sown –Vegetative & 15 Rainfall relative Dry weather Abortion
flowering stage humidity and of flowers, high
temperature incidence of pod
borer

Timely sown -Vegetative 18 Rainfall and relative Due to heavy

& Flowering stage humidity moisture stress at
flowering & pod
formation stage is a
major problem which
leads to poor pod
filling and lesser
yields.
Late sown – Pod 20-22 Due to severe
development and harvest moisture stress results
in poor pod yield.

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

84
 o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of Impact of AAS on Impact of
on cost of AAS on gross net returns AAS on yield
cultivation returns
Bangalore Field Decrease by 9.9% Increase by Increase by 19.3% Increase by
bean 11.8% 10.4%
o Case studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS AAS What is the
parameter recommendation Recomm loss/gain achieved
crucial to in light of the followed due to the
the crop prevailing recommendation
weather for (AAS vs. non AAS)
that operation In Total In Net
cost of returns
cultivation
Rabi- Field Inter Rainfall July 1 -4 and Yes 760 / ac 4434.6
2005- bean cultivation Relative Feb 19- 20 /ac
06 , Plant humidity June Recon :
protection and No rain is
measures temperature forecasted go
and for Inter
harvesting cultivation ,
spraying and
harvesting the
crop

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Input Amount of Input Difference in yield due to the input Difference in the cost of
used (Rs/acre) (Rs/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non- AAS Non- Difference AAS Non- Difference
AAS AAS AAS
Seed
294 329
FYM
995 1124
Fertilizer
869 986
Pesticide
97 148
Human labour 35304 31580 3724 7314 8126 -812
2574 2980
Bullock labour
200 267
Machine
labour 886 892
Irrigation
1400 400

85
 (g) Fruits : Banana

 Banana

 AAS units undertaking study on Banana

Thrissur Season: Kharif & Rabi
Coimbatore Season: Annual
 General information of Banana
Banana is chief fruit crop in Kerala. Nendran banana is well known for banana
chips. Other than Nendran, many varieties of banana are cultivated across the State
Banana is cultivated during kharif season (Feb/Mar) as rainfed (mainly local varieties)
and during Rabi season as irrigated. Mainly Nendran variety is grown and its harvest
coincides with Onam festival. A total area of 50871 ha is under banana cultivation in
Kerala. It is also extensively grown in Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu.

 Weather sensitive farm operation

Planting; use of fertilizer application; crop protection measures, harvesting

 Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Crop Standard No. Important Effect of weather parameter
growth Met. Week * of weather
stage days parameter
related to
respective
crop growth
stage
Banana Thrissur Vegetative 10 – 19th week 70 Failure of pre- Planting of rainfed banana will be done
Kharif stage (March 5 – monsoon with the available soil moisture. Failure of
season May 13) showers pre-monsoon showers will largely affect
sucker establishment and its development.

Harvesting 23-30th week 56 Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall along with wind will
stage (June 4 – July and wind destroy the banana plantation. Continuous
29 heavy rainfall during this period will lead
to inundation of field and physiological
function will be affected
Rabi season Planting 46-06th Week 91 High wind High wind speed during this stage cause
(Nov 12-Feb speed lodging of plant
11)
Vegetative 40-45th week 42 Heavy rainfall Rainfall during this period will affect the
stage (Oct 1 - Nov planting operation
11)
Vegetative 23-30th week 56 Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall along with wind will
stage (June 4 – July and wind destroy the banana plantation. Continuous
29) heavy rainfall during this period will lead
to inundation of field and physiological
function will be affected.
CoimbatoreFlowering wind High wind speed damages
Annual and the crop heavily
fruiting
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

86
 o Measuring the impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of Impact of AAS

on cost of on gross AAS on net on yield
cultivation returns returns
Banana Increase by Increase by Increase by
Thrissur (Irrigated) Increase by 4.3% 4.3% 26.4% 11.1%
Banana Increase by Increase by Increase by Increase by
Thrissur (Rainfed) 13.0% 11.6% 26.5% 10.1%
Increase by Increase by
Coimbatore Banana Increase by 25% 9.1% 7.7% Increase by 9.3%

o Case Studies
Season Crop Operation Weather Date of AAS recommendation in Whether What is the loss/gain
parameter light of the prevailing weather AAS achieved due to the
crucial to for that operation Recomme recommendation
the crop ndation (AAS vs non AAS)
followed In Total In Net
cost of returns
cultivation (Rs/ac)
(Rs/ac)
Thrissur Banana Spraying Cloudy June 7, July 12, 19, August 2, 9 43 per
Kharif weather, & 18, 2005 cent of
05 high Recommendation: farmers
relative Against Sigatoka leaf disease were
5872 4136
humidity in banana, spray 1% Bordeaux followed
and low mixture or Tilt (25 EC) after
temperature cutting the severely affected
leaves and burning it.
Thrissur Banana Spraying Population March 28, May 9 and June13, 53 per
Rabi 05- build up 2005. Recommendation: cent of
06 starts from Pseudo stem weevil attack has farmers
March and noticed in Nendran banana. To were -4457 13224
peak during control this, affected plants followed
rainy season may be sprayed with Carbaryl
50 WP
Thrissur Banana Strengthe Heavy June 20 & 27, 2006 Heavy
-11142/- loss in cost
Rabi 05- ning of rainfall and Recommendation: rainfall
of cultivation
06 propping wind speed Light to moderate rainfall is occurred
Due to this extreme
and being expected in and around
rainfall event there
drainage Thrissur district.
was 12 per cent yield
loss & and 20.3 %
loss in net return

87
 o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Station: Thrissur

Input Amount of Input Difference in yield due Difference in the cost of

used (kg/acre) to the input (Q/acre) Cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non- AAS Non Diff AAS Non- Diff
AAS AAS AAS
Banana (Irrigated) Rabi season
Seed 995 1007
Fertilizer 3469 3422
FYM 7726 6451
Irrigation 121 109 12 62834 60342 1492
14 15
Herbicide N/A N/A
Pesticide 21 14

Banana (Rainfed) Kharif season

Seed (Suckers) 1000 1000
Fertilizer 2784 1578
97 86 11 35632 31532 4100
FYM 4058 3896
Pesticide 21 18

Station: Coimbatore

Input Amount of input Difference in yield due Difference in cost of

used to input (Q/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non AAS AAS Non AAS Diff AAS Non AAS Diff

Banana Suckers Seed

(no:) 1252 1234

Fertilizer (kg/acre) 1326 1068

Pesticide (lit/acre) 1 1
212 196 17 9466 7660 1806
Human labour
(manays/acre) 54 53

Machine labour
(hrs/acre) 3.2 3.8

Irrigation (no/acre) 7 9

88
  Coconut

o AAS units undertaking study on Coconut

Thrissur Season: Kharif

o General Information of the crop

The State of Kerala ranks first in coconut area (49.6%) and production (44.7%) in
our country. The name Kerala is derived from its association with the coconut palm
called Kera viriksha in Sanskrit and coconut oil is major oil for culinary purpose. In
Kerala, coconut is mostly cultivated as rainfed, in an area of 905718 ha and average
productivity is 6049 nuts/ha. Kozhikode district stands first in area under coconut
(130100 ha) and Thrissur district accounts 9.4 per cent area (85480 ha).

o Weather sensitive farm operation

Sowing; Fertilizer application; Weeding; Irrigation; Picking; Plant protection

o Weather sensitive crop growth stages

Crop Plant Growth stage Standard Met. Weather Effect on Plant
Week* Parameter and
its range
Coconut Thrissur Various stages 48-19th week of Prolonged dry Moisture stress leads to
(Spath initiation next year spell and failure stunted growth, drooping
and elongation (November 28 of pre-monsoon of leaves, button
spadix – May 13) showers shedding, immature nut
emergence, fall and decrease in nut
female flower size and yield
production and
button
shedding)
Various stage 23-38th week High relative Heavy rainfall leads to
(Spath initiation (June 4 – humidity and water logging, low
and elongation September 23) low air nutrient uptake and
spadix temperature coconut leaves showing
emergence, yellowing in sand and
female flower sandy loam soil. High
production, relative humidity and
Button low air temperature
shedding) congenial for bud rot
disease
* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

o Measuring the impact of AAS

Station Crop Impact of AAS Impact of Impact of AAS Impact of AAS
on cost of AAS on gross on net returns on yield
cultivation returns
Increase by Increase by Increase by Increase by
Thrissur Coconut 14.2% 13.1% 30.6% 11.1%

89
 o Case Studies

Season Crop Operat Weather Date of AAS Whether What is the

ion parameter recommendatio AAS loss/gain achieved
crucial to n in light of the Recommen due to the
the crop prevailing dation recommendation
weather for followed (AAS vs non AAS)
that operation In Total In Net
cost of returns
cultivation (Rs/acre)
(Rs/acre)
Rabi Coconut Husk Prolonged September 30, 39 per cent
2003-04 burial dry spell 2003 of farmers
and (No rains Recommendatio followed
mulch- and high n: It is ideal time husk burial
ing temperature for husk burial and 61 per
(39.4°C) and mulching for cent of
moisture farmers
conservation/rete followed
ntion. Mulching mulching - 2734 1924
may also be
done with
green/dry leaves,
which add
organic matter to
the soil and
reduces the soil
temperature.

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS

Station: Thrissur
Input Amount of Input Difference in yield due Difference in the cost of
used (kg/acre) to the input (nuts/acre) cultivation (Rs/acre)
AAS Non-AAS AAS Non- Diffe AAS Non- Difference
AAS rence AAS
Fertilizer 431 324
FYM 906 956
Irrigation 10 12.8 5098 4521 577
9381 8216 1165
Pesticide
0.8 0.5

90
  Peach & Apricot

o AAS units undertaking study on Peach & Apricot

Solan Season: Kharif
Solan Season: Kharif

o General Information of the crop

It is well distributed through out the area. July alberta is high yield variety of
peach. It is mainly used for canning and processing purposes by the national and
international fruits processing units . Main bearing stage/ commercial stage starts from ( 6
to 20 years ). Rajgarh belt is famous for the production of July Albrata peach in India, it’s
high market value is due to good size and attractive color. Both Peach and Apricot are
highly sensitive to weather anomalies. It requires certain amount of chilling hour for its
metabolic activities to start the reproductive phase. Slight fluctuation in diurnal
temperature during a week will affect the bud break significantly. Dust storm/ hail storm
during March- April, may affect the yield or fruit quality depending on the incidence.
Increase in temperature can effect the ripening stage and also the post harvest
management practices.

o Weather sensitive farm operation and crop growth stages

Important weather Effect of weather parameter on
Standard Met. parameter related to Plant
Week * respective crop
Stone Fruits: growth stage
Apricot/Peach
40-6/ 40-6 RF. ,Temp, (min/max ) Positive relationship if favorable
Dormancy Stage & Humidity Highly negative / not favorable
Bud Break 7/ 9 Temperature if favorable then 80% bud break if
(Max.Min), RH unfavorable 40-50% only.
morning and evening.
8-9/ 9-10 Rainfall temperature 80% flowering if favorable
Flowering (Max.Min) Wind decrease is one of the factor is
Speed unfavorable

Fruit setting 9-10/ 10-12 Temperature Wind 100% if all favorable decrease is
Rainfall one of the factor is unfavorable

Fruit development 10-17/ 15-18 Temperature Sunshine fruit development depend on the
hours Weather weather anomalies
anomalies (hills storms
and dust storm etc.)
Fruit maturity 19-20/ 27-28 Temperature Wind Positive is favorable negative if
Speed Sunshine hours one of the factor is unfavorable

* For Standard Meteorological Week see Annexure-II

91
 o Measuring the impact of AAS
Station: Solan
Crop Impact of AAS on Impact of AAS Impact of AAS Impact of AAS
Station cost of cultivation on gross returns on net returns on yield
Increase by Increase by Increase by Increase by
Solan Peach 15.65% 57.22% 59.86% 12.25%
Increase by Increase by Increase by
Solan Apricot Increase by 2.18% 76.26% 82.64% 23.65%

o Overall analysis of the results obtained in terms of use of weather based AAS
Input Amount of input Difference in yield due Difference in cost of
used to cultivation (Rs/acre)
input (Q/acre)
AAS Non AAS Non Diff AAS Non AAS Diff
AAS AAS
Peach

FYM (kg/acre) 909 1100

Fertilizer
kg/acre) 31 24

Pesticide
107 85 18790 11973 6817
(kg/acre) 0 0 22

Human labour
(mandays/ acre) 26 23

Irrigation
(no:/farmer) 0 0
Apricot

FYM (kg/acre) 602 704

Fertilizer
kg/acre) 17 22

Pesticide
30 24 2805 2745 60
(kg/acre) 0 0 6

Human labour
(mandays/acre) 14 12

Irrigation
(no:/farmer) 0 0

92
6. Survey results on "Willingness to pay for the service"

The credibility and worthiness of a service is realized by its acceptability in totality

and the readiness on the part of the user to pay for the service. The AAS service being
run by NCMRWF has gained in popularity and reliability in the last 10-15 years of its
existence. The AAS farmers are very receptive to the agro advisory being given to them
and have also shown confidence in the weather forecast by accepting the advise free of
cost and implementing the advice. The farmers in the process have also accrued
substantial benefits from the service. So it was pertinent to assess through this survey the
willingness of the farmers to pay for the service.
Therefore the survey also included a specific question about the farmers willingness
to pay. Though the reply to this particular question was neither forthcoming nor
overwhelming yet it definitely helped in analyzing the effectiveness and worthiness of
weather forecast and also the risk taking ability of the sample farmers. Certain situations
under which a farmer is ready to pay are

1. expected weather induced losses

2. risk taking ability of farmer (income & assets)
3. reliability of forecast

Though most of the AAS farmers in majority of the units were still not ready to
pay and were willing to implement the weather based advisories on free of cost basis, yet
there was a small group of farmers in Jaipur, Hyderabad, and Pune who gave their
willingness to pay for the service. This small group of farmers possess medium to large
land holdings. They generally cultivate cash crops and are ready to pay for the service if
the price is nominal and service is specific to their needs. The small land holding farmers
are unwilling to pay as they are generally poor and take huge loans against their holding
and so do not have the risk taking ability. Although the farmers have gained confidence
in the reliability of weather forecast, they still depend on their traditional methods of
farming and rely more on superstitions rather than science.

7. Summary
For the last 15 years, NCMRWF has been providing forecast of different weather
elements like maximum temperature, minimum temperature, cloud cover, rainfall, wind
speed and wind direction twice a week (Tuesday and Friday) valid for subsequent four
days. Using the Medium Range Weather Forecast, Agromet advisories are prepared and
disseminated to the farmers of the AAS category in selected villages and feed back is
collected to study the impact of advisories issued on various crops.
The project “Economic Impact Assessment of AAS of NCMRWF” was given to
15 AAS units in different agro-climatic zones of the country to assess the impact of the
Agromet Advisory Services and to study the impact assessment frame work of AAS to
make it more effective and efficient. Two villages each under AAS and Non AAS
categories were selected and agro-advisories were issued based on Medium Range
Weather Forecast provided by NCMRWF. In each village, four crops were chosen (two
each during Kharif and Rabi seasons). Farmer awareness campaigns were organized from

93
time to time to create awareness on application of medium range weather forecast in
minimizing risk in crop loss due to weather. The project is summarized below based on
the detailed analysis of results indicating contributions made towards increasing the state
of knowledge in the subject.

 The impact studies have created awareness among the farmers on the utility of
Medium Range Weather Forecast.
 The impact study carried out included survey of traditional methods used by the
AAS farmers in carrying out farm management practices. The traditional methods
include observing stars, consulting Panchang, folklores and others for giving the
forecast for wind speed, wind direction, rainfall, temperature, and cloud cover.
Thus local inhabitants of the study area also use traditional ethos and wisdom for
assessing weather forecast. This traditional technology has been developed
through experience gathered over generations.
 A detailed analysis has been made about different socio-economic and other
ecological determinants so as to have an idea about the willingness and
capabilities of the farmers to pay for the agro-meteorological forecasts. It was
seen that this depended on the risk taking ability of a farmer. Only those farmers
who are prosperous are ready to take this risk and also pay for the advisory
 The study also highlights that majority of the AAS farmers are in the middle aged
group and are atleast matriculate. The adoption level of any technological
innovation depends to a larger extent on the educational level of
adopters/respondents. It has been observed that educated respondents are easy to
be targeted and sensitized about the benefits of new farms techniques based on
agro-met advisory.
 The reliability of the forecast in terms of its usability to the adopters was also
seen. It is seen that the forecasts are generally more reliable during Rabi season
when compared to Kharif season. The reliability of rain forecast during Kharif
season needs to be improved.
 The impact assessment framework also dealt with estimating the direct impact of
the Agro-Advisory service on cost of cultivation, gross net returns and impact on
yield. Crops selected included cereals, millets, oil seeds, cash crops, fruits and
vegetables. The overall analysis in terms of percentage of increase in yield and
total input cost is given in the Table 7.1 below

94
 Table 7.1. Impact of the AAS service during the study period
Category Crop Station Impact of Impact of Impact of Impact of
AAS on cost AAS on AAS on AAS on
of gross net yield
cultivation returns returns (Q/acre)
(Rs/acre) (Rs/acre) (Rs/acre)
Cereals Paddy Raipur; Thrissur; Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
Kalyani; Ludhiana; 5-12% 8-20% by 16-20% by 8-20%
Bhubaneshwar;
Hyderabad; Pantnagar
Wheat Raipur; Ludhiana; Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
Jaipur; Pune; Pantnagar 1-2% 8-13% by 12-28% by 7-30%
Millets Pearlmillet Jodhpur, Jaipur, Pune Increase by 1- Increase by Increase Increase
5% 4-14% by 10-28% by 4-25%
Vegetables Tomato Bhubaneshwar; Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
Bangalore; Coimbatore; 2-5% 7-20% by 12-30% by 13-
Hyderabad; Solan 23%
Palak Hyderabad Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
9.4% 24.6% by 25.1 by 24.4%
Capsicum Solan Increase by Increase by Increase Increase
2.2% 57.3% by 61.3% by 20.1%
Onion Pune Increase by Increase by Increase Increase
0.9% 20.4% by 30.1% by 30.2%
Potato Anand Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
3.1% 10.3% by 13.5% by 5.4%
Cash Crops Cotton Hisar, Coimbatore, Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
Hyderabad 4-10% 2-3% by 6-20% by 3-20%
Jute Kalyani Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
24.9% 11% by 21% by 14.1%
Tobacco Anand Increase by Increase by Increase Increase
2.8 % 11.7% by 21.5 % by 0.9%
Oil Seeds Mustard Hisar; Kalyani; Jodhpur Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
2-10% 3-11% by 7-20% by 2-10%
Pulses Gram Raipur, Jaipur Decrease by Increase by Increase Increase
3-5% 8-14% by 11-30% by 7-16%
Red Gram/ Bangalore Decrease by Increase by Increase by Increase by
Tur 14.1% 14.8% 32.7% 14.8%

Fruits Banana Thrissur, Coimbatore Increase by 4- Increase by Increase Increase

10% 4-13% by 25-30% by 10-11%
Peach Solan Increase by Increase by Increase Increase
10.6% 57.2% by 59.9% by 12.3%
Apricot Solan Increase by Increase by Increase Increase
2.2% 76.3% by 82.6% by 23.7%

95
 The above table attempts to isolate the economic impact of weather based
advisories on different crops cultivated by weather-sensitive users. Indirectly it assesses
what the impacts might have been had the forecasts-cum-advisories not been available.
Though the sampling method was devised to determine the direct and indirect impacts of
weather-related costs and losses for the representative sample of users, there is ample
scope for not catching holistic impacts. Considering the complexity of the situation one
can understand the difficulty in estimating and quantifying the user response.
Nevertheless, survey results as given in the Table 7.1 do provide credible information
about the value of forecast-cum-advisory products.
In quantitative terms, it is seen that the AAS farmers were able to reduce the cost
of cultivation by 2-5% except in the case of fruits where the cost of cultivation has
increased by 5-10%. This shows that the right selection of fertilizers and seeds due to
organization of awareness programmes in the villages and spraying of appropriate
pesticides due to advisory saved the input costs. It is also observed that the yield
increased by almost 10-25% in most of the crops with maximum increase in the fruit
crops. Undertaking timely field operations due to adoption of agro-advisories being
disseminated twice a week helped in improvement in the yields of various crops.
Besides the economic gains incurred by the user community through various
strategies to mitigate the weather induced losses, the project also helped in creating
comprehensive knowledge base on the following aspects:
 Prevalent weather and climatic conditions in the study zone
 Soil types in the agroclimatic zone
 Land topography in the area
 Socio-economic status of
o farmers
o farm labourers
 Crop yield in relation to national average and their growth potential
 Shifting of cultivation from traditional to modern methods of agriculture

8. Other accomplishments of the study

The Agricultural Advisory Services (AAS) program of NCMRWF is an

innovative inter- departmental extension service, with a goal to deliver weather wise
management of agriculture. Although an initial evaluation of AAS has been quite
favourable, these evaluations have been quantitative in nature and are based on
descriptive analyses of results of structured surveys. Hence more work needs to be
carried out.
Based on observed differences across the AAS and non-AAS farmers, it appears
that the AAS program is having substantial positive impacts on the availability and
quality of advisory services provided to farmers, promoting adoption and use of modern
agricultural production technologies and practices. AAS also appears to have promoted
weather based irrigation management, pest/disease management etc. along with greater
use of post-harvest technologies and commercial marketing of commodities. Despite
positive effects of AAS on adoption of improved production technologies and practices,
marginal differences were found in yield obtained by AAS and non-AAS farmers for
some crops. AAS appears to be having more success in promoting adoption of improved

96
varieties of crops and some other yield enhancing technologies rather than in promoting
improved soil fertility management. Shortage of capital was often cited by farmers as a
critical constraint facing them, in addition to shortage of irrigation water, lack of
adequate farmland, unfavorable weather patterns and problems of pests and diseases.
These highlight that the quality of advisory services is not the only vital factor that
influences technology adoption and productivity and that there is urgent need for
complementary progress in other areas as well. In general the areas in which the study
has gained substantial accomplishments are
The study has helped to
 Increase awareness among farmers about the adoption of weather based
advisory.
 Further improve the assessment of economic impact Agro advisory services
on farm decision making
 Enhance the capacity of the farming community to take weather based farm
management decision related to weather sensitive operations.
 Upgrade the existing knowledge of farmers as well as scientists on
identification of
o weather sensitive crops
o weather sensitive stages of different crops
o weather sensitive farm operations
 Develop standard methodology for assessing the economic impact of AAS
services

9. Limitations of the study

One of the major limitation that makes the connection between accuracy of
weather forecast and value of such forecast based advice, so difficult to define, is the
cost/loss ratio. That is, if the user of a forecast takes some action in response to the
forecast, that action has a cost. If the user fails to take that action, however, there may be
a loss associated with that failure to act. A simple example is of a user growing crops that
are sensitive to freezing. There are actions that the user can take (e.g., spraying fruit trees
with water) to diminish the threat of freezing weather. These actions have a cost that a
grower would not want to incur needlessly. However, failing to take those actions in a
freeze means some amount of crop loss, creating a proportionate loss of income. Every
user of weather information has a cost/loss ratio and, generally speaking, that ratio differs
for each user. Some users are not knowledgeable about their cost/loss ratio and so are
handicapped in determining whether to take a protective action.
Also in certain situations the costs and losses are very sensitive to weather, but
not very sensitive to the weather forecast as in case of the hailstorm. The hail can cause
tremendous crop losses, but there is very little a farmer can do to save the crops from its
fury. A farmer might not be able to protect the crops, but investing in crop hail nets (or
insurance) is a decision that must be made which is not particularly sensitive to the
accuracy of forecasts but depends on climatology of the hail.
Even when cost/loss is known, however, Murphy and Ehrendorfer (1987) have
noted that it is still difficult to be precise about the relationship between accuracy and
value. They point out that it is typically possible to obtain a single-valued relationship

97
between accuracy and quality only when making a number of simplifying assumptions
about the problem. Of particular importance is the process by which forecast accuracy is
specified; generally, this is not completely determined by single scalar measures of
accuracy.
While the study was designed and conducted in the most impartial way, yet, there is a
possibility that some unexpected but unavoidable bias might have percolated into the
survey. Some of them are listed below. Although these shortfalls/ deficiencies are
obvious and expected in such types of surveys and due efforts are made to avoid these,
yet some of them might have influenced the final results. A few of them are listed below.
 Surveyor bias- the sample survey is not independently conducted by the
agency which provided the questionnaire leading to bias.
 sampling bias
 mutually exclusive set of AAS and non-AAS farmers regarding their
awareness about weather based agro advisories
 partial incorrect information collected during survey
 Willfully concealing information about the actual benefits accrued by the
farmer
 Fictitious information regarding the losses suffered on account of weather, for
want of funds from government.

10. Scope for future work

Acceptance and use of weather information based farm advisories is likely to
occur gradually. Farmers need time to try out new information, experience the benefits,
and accept the results. Technology is changing rapidly whereas the mindset of the
farmers changes slowly. Experiencing accurate information and beneficial outcomes
leads to trust building which certainly will encourage educated farmers to adopt the
advisories.
The following points may be taken into consideration while planning the future studies.
 Need to make these impact studies an integral part of the Agro advisory
services of the country.
 Need to develop AAS service based decision support system for managing
weather variability in reducing the negative impacts on yield.
 Improving package of practices for major crops keeping in view the weather
sensitive crop stages and weather sensitive farm operations for reducing cost
of cultivation and improving yield and increasing net returns.
 Need to improve the forecast quality during the sowing operations of kharif
crops.
 Studies may be undertaken to quantify the value of medium range weather
forecast in Nitrogen fertilizer management in arable crops. The N fertilizer
advice may be tested through determining the uptake efficiency. The changes
in N leaching, de-nitrification and crop N uptake due to the forecast quality
needs to be assessed. Yield and gross profit changes may then be linked to N
uptake.

98
  Need to integrate Medium Range Weather Forecast with extended range
forecast for better planning of the field operations particularly for sowing and
mid-season corrections incase of drought
 The impact studies should be replicated in other crops of the region.
 Similar studies are also needed in other AAS units in India.
 The successful implementation of the scientific agro-meteorological forecasts
need blending with local technologies like traditional methods so that farmers
can readily adopt and be benefited from these scientific forecast.
 There is need to deliver district level weather based advisories through an
automated dissemination system.
In addition to the agriculture sector there is need to carry out similar studies in other
weather sensitive sectors of economy as systematic and reliable data on the scope and
dimensions of the relationship of weather and various user sectors is lacking. Better
understanding of use and value of weather forecast may help substantially reduce the
risks to life and property. For example, if there is knowledge about how many people and
how much property is actually at risk to floods, one may be able to develop better
strategies to reduce that undefined risk. In addition to the general lack of knowledge of
the societal context of weather events, there is also limited understanding of how decision
makers could and actually use weather information. The significance of this study seems
to call for a wide range of interests to support the similar efforts on other sectors such as
aviation, power etc. The power firms like the Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL)
require location specific quantitative forecast of Maximum/ Minimum Temperatures,
Rainfall, Clouds, Wind Speed/direction four days in advance to run their Load Forecast
models and the Power Distribution models. PGCIL estimates about 5-12 % saving on
power equivalent to Rs 110 crore per month through use of weather forecast of higher
accuracy (>70%)
Therefore to undertake work in such spheres, there is urgent need to form a
cohesive group of meteorologists (forecasters and researchers), users, and representatives
from related fields (economics, policy makers, etc.). Although the entire meteorological
community ought to be concerned with the outcome of that decision-making process, one
should not try to do this in meteorological terms only. Public policy-makers must make
difficult economic decisions that include issues of human safety, as well as purely
economic factors. Decision making in weather sensitive sectors of economy must be
made with knowledge of the economic impacts of weather forecasts, rather than without
that quantitative information.

99
 References

Das Gupta, M. and Rizvi, S. R. H. (2001): An Overview of Meteorological Data

Decoding and Pre-processing Operational at NCMRWF, NCMRWF Tech. Rep. No:
NMRF/TR/1/2001, 33pp.

Katz, R.W. and A.H. Murphy, 1997: Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts.
Cambridge University Press, 222 pp,

Kumar A, Parvinder Maini, Rathore,L.S. and S.V.Singh, 2000: An operational medium

range local weather forecasting system developed in India Int. J. Climatol., (a journal of
Royal Meteorological Society), 20: 73-87.

Maini Parvinder, Ashok Kumar, S.V.Singh and L.S.Rathore, 2004: Operational Model
for Forecasting Location Specific Quantitative Precipitation and Probability Of
Precipitation over India. Journal of Hydrol, 288, 170-188.

Maini Parvinder, 2006: Development of Statistical-Dynamical Models for Location

Specific Weather Forecast. (PhD Thesis), Andhra University, 242pp.

Murphy, A. H and M. Ehrendorfer, 1987: On the relationship between the accuracy and
value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 243-251.

NCMRWF/DST, Govt. of India, 1999: Guide for Agrometeorological Advisory Service".

Govt of India Publication, 201pp (Eds: S.V. Singh, L.S.Rathore, H.K.N.Trivedi ),
Published by NCMRWF (DST), Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, N.Delhi-110003

NCMRWF/DST, Govt. of India, 2004: Monsoon-2004: Progress, Performance Prediction

and Agro-Meteorological Advisories 197 pp, (Eds: AK Gupta, KK Singh, AK Baxla, JV
Singh, R Singh) Published by NCMRWF (DST), A-50 Institutional Area, Sector-62,
NOIDA,UP,INDIA 201307

NCMRWF/DST, Govt. of India, 2006: Monsoon-2005: Performance of the NCMRWF

Global Assimilation Forecast System," 139 pp, Published by NCMRWF (DST), A-50
Institutional Area, Sector-62, NOIDA,UP,INDIA 201307

NCMRWF/MoES, Govt. of India, 2006: Monsoon-2006: Performance of the NCMRWF

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Geneva, Switzerland. WMO/TD-No. 780. 38 pp.

100
 Annexure-I
Following are the verification scores that have been used for verifying the rainfall and
temperature forecasts disseminated to the AAS units on a bi-weekly basis

(a) Measures of obtaining skill of Yes/No rainfall

In the following 22 contingency table, if Y stands for occurrence of rain and N stands
for non-occurrence then
Forecast (Rain) Observed (Rain)
Yes No
Yes YY YN
No NY NN

The total number of cases (M) is given by:

M = YY+YN+NY+NN
i. Ratio Score
Ratio Score (RS), also known as the Hit Rate or Percentage Correct, measures the
proportion of correct forecasts. The RS varies from 0 to 100 with 100 indicating perfect
forecasts.

correct forecasts YY  NN 

RS    100
total forecasts M

ii. Hanssen and Kuipers’ Score

Hanssen and Kuipers’ Score (HKS) (Woodcock, 1976, 1981) is the ratio of economic
saving over climatology due to the forecast to that of a set of perfect forecasts. In HKS
the reference hit rate in the denominator is for random forecasts that are constrained to be
unbiased.

correct forecast  correct forecast random

HKS 
M  correct forecast random , unbiased

HKS 
YY * NN  YN * NY 
YY  NY YN  NN 
That is, the imagined random reference forecasts in the denominator have a marginal
distribution that is equal to the (sample) climatology (Wilks, 1995).The value of HKS
varies from 1 to +1. If all forecast are wrong (i.e. YY = NN = 0) then it is 1, and if all
forecast are perfect (i.e. YN = NY = 0) then it is +1, and random forecasts receive a score
of 0.

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(b) Criteria for obtaining usability of Quantitative Precipitation (QP)

Error Structure for verification of Quantitative Precipitation

Observed rainfall 10mm Observed rainfall  10mm

Correct Diff ≤ 0.2 mm Diff ≤ 2% of obs

Usable 0.2 mm< Diff ≤ 2.0mm 2% of obs < Diff ≤ 20% of obs
Unusable Diff >2.0 mm Diff > 20% of obs

where Diff stands for Absolute difference of observed and forecasted in mm and obs
stands for observed rainfall in mm

(c) Measures of obtaining skill of temperature

Correlation Coefficient (r) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are calculated for
obtaining the skill of the model in forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures.

(i) Correlation coefficient can be defined as

r  f i , oi  
f i  f oi  o 

  f  f   o  o  
i
2
i
2
1
2

(ii) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): The RMSE is the square root of Mean Square Error
(MSE) which measures the degree of correspondence between the forecasts and
observations in terms of the average squared difference between fi and oi.

1
Where 1 2
 2

RMSE  
n   fi  oi  

 

f i  forecast value
f  mean forecast value
oi  observed value
o  mean observed alue
n  total no : of observations / forecast

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(d) Criteria for obtaining usability of Temperature forecast

Error Structure for verification of Temperature Forecast

Correct Diff ≤ 10C

Usable 10C < Diff ≤ 20C
Unusable Diff > 20C

where Diff stands for Absolute difference of observed and forecasted temperatures in 0C

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 Annexure -II
Standard Meteorological Week Table

Wk. Month Dates Wk. Month Dates

No. No.
1 January 1-7 27 July 2-8
2 8-14 28 9-15
3 15-21 29 16-22
4 22-28 30 23-29
5 29-4 31 30-5

6 February 5-11 32 August 6-12

7 12-18 33 13-19
8 19-25 34 20-26
9 26-4* 35 27-2

10 March 5-11 36 September 3-9

11 12-18 37 10-16
12 19-25 38 17-23
13 26-1 39 24-30

14 April 2-8 40 October 1-7

15 9-15 41 8-14
16 16-22 42 15-21
17 23-29 43 22-28
18 30-6 44 29-4

19 May 7-13 45 November 5-11

20 14-20 46 12-18
21 21-27 47 19-25
22 28-3 48 26-2

23 June 4-10 49 December 3-9

24 11-17 50 10-16
25 18-24 51 17-23
26 25-1 52 24-31≠

* In the leap year the week no. 9 will be 26 February to 4 March, i.e. 8 days instead
of 7

≠ Last week will have 8 days, 24 to 31 December.

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