Pi 060219 PDF
Pi 060219 PDF
Pi 060219 PDF
Universitas Indonesia
Facultas Ekonomi & Bisnis
Program S1
Tahun Ajaran 2018/2019
Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Ph. D.
Gurubesar Emeritus
Gatt Negotiations
1. Geneva Round(1947)
2. Annecy Round(1949)
3. Torquay Round(1950-51)
4. Geneva Round(1956)
5. Dillon Round (1960-61)
6. Kennedy Round (1964-67)
7. Tokyo Round (1973-79)
WTO established to
8. Uruguay Round (1986-94)
replace GATT
WTO Negotiation
1. Doha Round (2001) By 2016 failed to reach most of its
goals
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
4
Is this the base of Trump’s “grand strategy” of “America First” and “Let’s
make America great again”? (As powerfully presented as his vision of
America in the presidential election campaign of 2016).
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
THE THREAT OF DOUBLE DEFICIT AND INDEBTEDNESS IN THE
MIDST OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN AND MAJOR
CURRENCY EXCHANGE-RATE UNCERTAINTY
8
The Economist
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD. Oct 11th 2018
9
The Economist
Oct 11th 2018
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
10
Production, demand, and employment 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f
Real GDP growth (% y-o-y) 4,9 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,0 5,0
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 861 933 1.015 1.041 1.088 1.166
Prices & wages
Inflations, CPI (%) 6,4 3,5 3,8 3,2 3,8 3,7
FX & interest rates
Policy rate, end-of-period (% y-o-y) 6,3 4,8 4,3 6,3 6,3 5,8
IDR/USD, end-of-period 13.795 13.436 13.548 14.600 15.000 15.000
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. Dec 2018 – Jan 2019
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. Dec 2018 – Jan 2019
Republic of Indonesia
Long Term Foreign Currency Rating
Moody's S&P Fitch
Outlook Stable Stable Stable
Rating Baa2 BBB- BBB
Source: HSBC – The VIEW. Asia’s Bond Markets. Dec 2018-Jan 2019
Investment rating
Reformasi,
Demokratisasi, 1st Open & Direct 2ND 3RD
BBB+ Desentralisasi General Election
Investme
nt grade
Ba2
B
Ba3
B-
B1
CCC+
B2
CCC B3
CCC- Caa1
CC Caa2
Caa3
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kondratieff Wave
(The Long Wave in Economic Life)
Info/Bio/Nano/
Neuro
Triple-T
Revolution
Disruptive
Technology
Pacific
Indian Ocean
Gambaran perbatasan Negara Indonesia yang memperlihatkan Batas Teritorial, Zona Ekonomi
Eksklusif, Batas Landas Kontinen serta Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia (ALKI).
ALKI IIIB
ALKI II ALKI IIIA
Source: EIA – World Oil Transit Chokepoints, 2016 Million barrels daily
Iron ore and coal seaborne trade routes in 2010 (in mill. tonnes).
D. Cyberspace
Monitoring Systems directed to the management of (A, B, C) space and natural
resources: • Super-Computer
• Big Data, Artificial Intelligence
(AI)
• Drones, Intelligent Buoys
• Submersibles
(The Major Powers continue to develop their monitoring capacity over all spatial dimensions,
beyond the UN-mandated areas. Unilaterally, some are developing A2D [Area & Access
Denial] military capacity)
ASEAN LONG-TERM DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: UN
PROJECTIONS OF POPULATION PYRAMID, 2050
TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES AND THEIR POPULATIONS, SELECTED YEARS 44
(millions)
DEMOGRAPHY is destiny
Source: Government of Indonesia (2011), “Master Plan: Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development 2011-2025
Thailand Philippine
Source: UN DESA
Source: UN DESA
China Japan
India Korea
Source: UN DESA
Correlations:
The Middle-Income Trap
By Evan Applegate June 13, 2013
Speaking on June 6 in Chengdu, China,
Executive Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said his
country “has to stand up to the test of
striding over the ‘middle-income trap.’ ”
Zhang was referring to a well-known
phenomenon: Many nations can move
from low-income to middle-income status,
but as labor costs rise only countries that
boost productivity, improve education, and
master innovation fully develop.
www.businessweek.com
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
SISTEM EKONOMI INDONESIA SEJAK 1950
An Idealized Perspective of Rostow’s Stages of Growth 51
(NIEs)
(Newly-Industrialised
$5.000 Economies)
PRE-INDUSTRIAL
FROM: INDUSTRIALIZING
EARLY TO: INDUSTRIALIZATION
$300 IND’L
(G-7/8)
(The Majority of NAM Economies)
0 Agriculture Industrial Services HIGH-MASS t
dominant dominant dominant
CONSUMPTION
Rostow : TRADITIONAL PRE-CONDITION TAKE-
DRIVE TO
SOCIETY TO GROWTH OFF
MATURITY
History : - Great Britain needed almost two centuries to move to Industrial Revolution then to “High-Mass Consumption”
- Japan needed almost 70 years to move to Late Industrial Stage –from Meiji Restoration to WWII
- China needed less than 40 years to the stage of NIE
Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, PhD.
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Gambaran Teoretikal dari Sistem (Systems)
COLD WAR
The Economics Classical Neo-Classical Monetarism
of Nationalism Economics Economics:
Welfare Economics
Microeconomics
Keynesian Modern
Economics: monetarism Post-Keynesian
Development Economics
Macroeconomics
Email: [email protected]