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Luxury Market Update

2012 Outlook
2004 2005 2006 2007 2009

June 10, 2009

This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.
In 2008 the luxury goods market was flat

Worldwide Luxury Goods Market trend (1995-2008 E)

CAGR:
€200B 6,5%

170 170
159
160 146
130 134 134 128 134
120 111 CAGR 04-08 E
6%
93 98
84 CAGR 00-04
80 76 0,8%
+6,5%
CAGR 95-00
14% +0%
40
11% 10% 5% 14% 17% 3% 0% -5% 5% 9% 9%

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072008E

2
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.
In 2009 we expect the market to shrink by
10% ESTIMATES

Bain Forecast April 2009 Main Assumptions

• First semester average

€200B By market trend as the worst
semester actual one: -15%-20%
170
• Slower decrease in the second
154 half of the year: -5% - 0%
150

• Retail Like-for-Like
100
By channel decreasing as the current trend
-10% (-5%, -10%)
• Compensation effect to the
50 decrease of already committed
new openings and full
potential of 2008 numerous
new openings
0
2008 2009FK • Wholesale crisis as for actual
At constant exchange order campaign (-20%) with
aggressive mark-down
rates – assuming no
campaigns (-30% on 50% of
change in the forex for
2009 products)
Source: Bain analysis 3
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.
 We developed long-term forecasts for luxury
market following a twofold approach
Methodology Sources
• Bain Luxury Study
Top-down • Regression based on correlation of
approach Luxury market and real GDP • Analyst reports
between 1995-2008
• Worldwide trade
• Market forecast based on GDP associations
projections by geographical area
• International Monetary
Fund (World Economic
Database)
Luxury goods market • Bloomberg research
Forecasts

• Market estimates based on • Interviews to

benchmarking of competitors’ - players’ top
current trading and sell-in/sell-out management
Bottom-up projections for the next seasons - industry experts
approach - luxury retailers
• Analyst reports
*wholesale calculated through average mark-ups 4
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.