Changes in Federal Civilian Employment: An Update: Congress of The United States Congressional Budget Office
Changes in Federal Civilian Employment: An Update: Congress of The United States Congressional Budget Office
Changes in Federal Civilian Employment: An Update: Congress of The United States Congressional Budget Office
A
CBO
P A P E R
Changes in
Federal Civilian
Employment:
An Update
MAY 2001
CHANGES IN FEDERAL CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT: AN UPDATE
May 2001
NOTES
Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in this paper are fiscal years.
PREFACE
This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report is the latest in a series on trends in
prepared the analysis under the supervision of Roger Hitchner and Marvin Phaup.
Staff at the Office of Personnel Management and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
provided data.
Christine Bogusz edited the paper, and John Skeen proofread it. Rae Wiseman
prepared the paper for final publication with help from Kathryn Quattrone, and Lenny
Skutnik produced the printed copies. Annette Kalicki prepared the electronic
Dan L. Crippen
Director
May 2001
CONTENTS
TABLES
FIGURES
BOX
From 1985 through 2000, the period covered in this analysis, the federal government
total fell from 2.3 million workers to 1.8 million. Those figures exclude the 170,000
temporary employees hired for the 2000 decennial census. However, even when
those employees are taken into account, data still show a decrease in employment
over the 15-year period of about 260,000, or 11 percent of the workforce. (See
Table 1 on the next page and Table A-1 on page 16; also see Box 1 for a discussion
of measuring the size of the federal workforce.) Although the number of employees
at most agencies fell over the period, by far the largest decreases occurred at the
The budget submitted by President Bush for 2002 projects fairly steady federal
Civilian employment in the legislative and executive branches remained fairly stable
throughout the late 1980s and early 1990s (notwithstanding the temporary jump in
TABLE 1. CHANGES IN FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT BY BRANCH,
1985-2000 (In thousands of workers)
Legislative 39 31 -9 -22
Judicial 18 32 14 82
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office using data from the Office of Personnel Management.
NOTE: Numbers are averages of monthly employment counts. Data cover all branches of the federal government, work
schedules, and geographic areas but do not include the U.S. Postal Service.
a. The increase in employment at non-Defense agencies is all attributable to temporary hires for the decennial census.
Excluding those workers, employment at non-Defense agencies fell by about 30,000 over the 15-year period.
executive branch employment for the decennial census in 1990) and declined
thereafter (see Table 1). Of the three branches of government, only the judicial
1. The increase in employment for justice-related activities has been accompanied by an increase in spending.
For a discussion, see Congressional Budget Office, Trends in Federal Spending for the Administration of
Justice, CBO Memorandum (August 1996).
2
BOX 1.
COUNTING FEDERAL EMPLOYEES
Unless otherwise indicated, this analysis focuses on federal civilian employees—that is,
workers outside the uniformed military services. (In 2000, uniformed personnel numbered
about 1.4 million.) In addition, it emphasizes employees covered by payrolls directly
managed by the federal government. For example, it does not take into account workers who
support federal activities under contracts, grants, and mandates. According to a 1999 study
by Paul Light of the Brookings Institution, those employees totaled about 13 million in 1996
and, like the employees covered in this report, declined in number over the period studied.1
Also, this report provides information on the U.S. Postal Service but does not include it in
most totals. (Postal employees are covered by a pay system that is separate from the rest of
the government and funded by revenue from the sale of stamps rather than taxes.) Federal
civilian workers, together with postal, military, grant, mandate, and contract employees,
totaled roughly 17 million in 1996 according to Light’s study.
The reports and databases from which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
derived information about the federal civilian workforce for this analysis vary in their
coverage. Some sources, for example, cover only employees working a full-time schedule.
Many workforce statistics do not include information on the Central Intelligence Agency and
other intelligence-gathering agencies.
Methods of adding up employees also vary from source to source. None of the
different approaches is ideal, but CBO believes all fairly represent federal workforce totals
and trends. One approach used by the government is simply to count the employees on
board at any given time. That approach presents problems, however, because it treats full-
and part-time workers in the same way and fails to account for seasonal fluctuations in
employment. A variant of that approach is to average periodic on-board counts over a year.
That approach helps adjust for seasonal variations in employment but still treats full- and
part-time employees in the same way.
The notes to text and tables throughout this analysis contain information on both the
coverage of data in the various analyses and the method used to count employees.
1. Paul C. Light, The True Size of Government (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1999).
3
Department of Defense
number of those workers account for most of the downward employment trend for
government (see Figure 1). Employment at DoD started to fall in the late 1980s and
has continued to slide since then. Most of those reductions in workforce reflect the
changes in national security requirements that took place after the dissolution of the
Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Those changes have led to reduced
budgets, smaller military forces, and, consequently, less need for civilian personnel
Civilian Agencies
140,000 people—in 2000 than in 1985. (All agencies other than the Department of
Defense are designated as civilian agencies in this report.) That increase, however,
is all attributable to the Commerce Department’s temporary hires for the 2000
4
FIGURE 1. DEFENSE AND NON-DEFENSE FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT,
1985-2000
Thousands of Employees
1,400
1,300
1,200
Non-Department of Defense (and non-Postal Service)
1,100
Department of Defense
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office using data from the Office of Personnel Management.
NOTE: Totals are averages of monthly employment counts. Data cover all branches of government, but not the U.S. Postal
Service. All work schedules and geographic areas are represented. The jump in non-Defense employment in 1990
and 2000 is attributable to temporary hiring for the decennial census.
Within the overall change, trends among civilian agencies varied. Some
agencies employed more people in 2000 than they did in 1985, and some employed
fewer. For civilian agencies in which employment was lower in 2000 than in 1985,
decreases in staff generally started in the early 1990s but did not reach the magnitude
of the cuts at DoD. However, there are exceptions. For example, employment at the
exceeding even the percentage reduction at DoD. Among the government’s larger
5
of Agriculture, falling by 15,500, or 13 percent; and at the Department of Veterans
have had less to do with decreases in workload and more to do with tight budgets and
Department of Health and Human Services, for example, can be traced to budgetary
constraints and efforts to computerize aspects of the Social Security program. The
drop at GSA partly reflects the transfer of some functions to other agencies. A shift
1985 to 2000 is the Department of Justice. The agency’s expanded efforts to fight
from 62,900 to 125,300—over the 15-year period. For similar reasons, employment
6
CHANGES IN FULL-TIME CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT BY GEOGRAPHIC
AREA
About 19 percent of all full-time employees of the U.S. government work in the
Washington, D.C., metropolitan area; the rest of the federal civilian workforce is
scattered around the country. In the same way, reductions in federal employment
have been spread across the country, with almost all states experiencing some
reduction. The greatest number of reductions occurred in the eastern United States,
however, the region that accounts for almost half of all federal civilian employment
(see Table 2). Decreases in employment were not significant compared with overall
state employment, although such comparisons probably understate the impact for
particular localities.
In addition to shrinking in size since 1985, the federal workforce has become more
changes, the aging of the federal workforce has been the most notable.
7
TABLE 2. CHANGES IN FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT BY REGION AND
STATE, 1985-1999
Change in
Federal
Percentage Employment
Federal Federal Change in Change in State Nonfarm as a
Civilian Civilian Federal Federal Employment, Percentage of
Employment, Employment, Employment, Employment, 1999 State
1985 1999 1985-1999 1985-1999 (in thousands) Employment
Northeast
Connecticut 9,494 7,260 (2,234) -23.53 1,663.9 -0.13
Maine 13,511 7,685 (5,826) -43.12 580.8 -1.00
Massachusetts 31,252 25,471 (5,781) -18.50 3,209.9 -0.18
New Hampshire 3,452 3,135 (317) -9.18 597.5 -0.05
Rhode Island 5,991 5,911 (80) -1.34 461.1 -0.02
Vermont 2,228 2,744 516 23.16 290.1 0.18
Subtotal 65,928 52,206 (13,722) -20.81 6,803.3 -0.20
New York/
New Jersey
New York 40,433 26,571 (13,862) -34.28 3,846.7 -0.36
New Jersey 69,768 58,218 (11,550) -16.55 8,334.5 -0.14
Subtotal 110,201 84,789 (25,412) -23.06 12,181.2 -0.21
Mid-Atlantic
Delaware 3,031 2,475 (556) -18.34 408.7 -0.14
District of
Columbia 164,553 144,100 (20,453) -12.43 614.8 -3.33
Maryland 106,055 101,062 (4,993) -4.71 2,359.3 -0.21
Pennsylvania 86,654 62,551 (24,103) -27.82 5,528.1 -0.44
Virginia 134,844 115,668 (19,176) -14.22 3,363.9 -0.57
West Virginia 9,550 11,506 1,956 20.48 725.8 0.27
Subtotal 504,687 437,362 (67,325) -13.34 13,000.6 -0.52
Southeast
Alabama 49,933 36,892 (13,041) -26.12 1,929.4 -0.68
Florida 56,745 60,727 3,982 7.02 6,839.6 0.06
Georgia 64,202 61,981 (2,221) -3.46 3,831.6 -0.06
Kentucky 25,933 19,411 (6,522) -25.15 1,775.7 -0.37
Mississippi 18,254 16,776 (1,478) -8.10 1,135.4 -0.13
North Carolina 28,060 30,261 2,201 7.84 3,824.8 0.06
South Carolina 25,783 16,193 (9,590) -37.20 1,822.6 -0.53
Tennessee 43,411 33,089 (10,322) -23.78 2,650.7 -0.39
Subtotal 312,321 275,330 (36,991) -11.84 23,809.8 -0.16
Great Lakes
Illinois 54,273 41,799 (12,474) -22.98 5,944.1 -0.21
Indiana 24,230 20,339 (3,891) -16.06 2,956.8 -0.13
Michigan 26,915 21,519 (5,396) -20.05 4,551.7 -0.12
Minnesota 13,367 12,930 (437) -3.27 2,590.7 -0.02
Ohio 54,340 42,900 (11,440) -21.05 5,498.4 -0.21
Wisconsin 12,021 11,076 (945) -7.86 2,734.6 -0.03
Subtotal 185,146 150,563 (34,583) -18.68 24,276.3 -0.14
(Continued)
8
TABLE 2. CONTINUED
Change in
Federal
Percentage Employment
Federal Federal Change in Change in State Nonfarm as a
Civilian Civilian Federal Federal Employment, Percentage of
Employment, Employment, Employment, Employment, 1999 State
1985 1999 1985-1999 1985-1999 (in thousands) Employment
South Central
Arkansas 12,220 10,948 (1,272) -10.41 1,929.4 -0.07
Louisiana 20,195 19,835 (360) -1.78 1,908.1 -0.02
New Mexico 22,348 21,178 (1,170) -5.24 729.1 -0.16
Oklahoma 37,403 31,223 (6,180) -16.52 1,465.0 -0.42
Texas 115,414 106,676 (8,738) -7.57 9,118.6 -0.10
Subtotal 207,580 189,860 (17,720) -8.54 15,150.2 -0.12
Central
Iowa 7,891 6,834 (1,057) -13.40 1,466.7 -0.07
Kansas 14,916 14,650 (266) -1.78 1,334.5 -0.02
Missouri 44,953 32,296 (12,657) -28.16 2,704.0 -0.47
Nebraska 8,657 7,632 (1,025) -11.84 875.9 -0.12
Subtotal 76,417 61,412 (15,005) -19.64 6,381.1 -0.24
North Central
Colorado 35,900 33,213 (2,687) -7.48 2,086.3 -0.13
Montana 8,276 7,724 (552) -6.67 379.4 -0.15
North Dakota 5,098 4,875 (223) -4.37 319.7 -0.07
South Dakota 6,688 6,710 22 0.33 366.2 0.01
Utah 32,553 23,415 (9,138) -28.07 1,042.4 -0.88
Wyoming 4,816 4,404 (412) -8.55 229.6 -0.18
Subtotal 93,331 80,341 (12,990) -13.92 4,423.6 -0.29
West
Arizona 27,146 28,045 899 3.31 2,125.0 0.04
California 211,805 147,835 (63,970) -30.20 13,852.4 -0.46
Hawaii 23,044 19,259 (3,785) -16.43 527.6 -0.72
Nevada 6,350 7,146 796 12.54 952.4 0.08
Subtotal 268,345 202,285 (66,060) -24.62 17,457.4 -0.38
Northwest
Alaska 10,711 11,328 617 5.76 278.0 0.22
Idaho 7,046 7,304 258 3.66 536.5 0.05
Oregon 18,648 17,380 (1,268) -6.80 1,584.2 -0.08
Washington 48,988 42,479 (6,509) -13.29 2,639.9 -0.25
Subtotal 85,393 78,491 (6,902) -8.08 5,038.6 -0.14
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office using data from the Office of Personnel Management and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
NOTE: Data cover full-time employees in the executive and legislative branches who work in one of the 50 states or in
the District of Columbia.
9
The Aging of the Federal Workforce
In 1985, about 25 percent of the federal workforce was over age 50. As of
December 2000, the comparable figure was almost 40 percent. Nearly three-quarters
of the federal workforce is over age 40 (see Figure 2). In contrast, only about half of
all employed workers in the United States are over that age.
If the federal government continues its recent efforts to limit employment, the
aging of the workforce will likely continue. Eventually, agencies could face
one-third of federal civilian employees will be eligible to retire from federal service
by 2005. Agencies with workforces older than average may face some of the greatest
nearly half of the workers are over age 50. But the aging of the workforce could
prove beneficial in some ways. Pending retirements could provide agencies with the
10
FIGURE 2. AGE DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYEES, 1985 AND 2000
Percentage of Employees
25
1985 2000
20
15
10
0
19 and Under 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and Over
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office using data from the Office of Personnel Management.
The General Accounting Office (GAO) has urged agencies to prepare for
potential problems posed by the aging of the workforce. Among other things, GAO
planning, and more investment in the training and development of existing staff.2
Most reductions in federal civilian employment have occurred among positions the
2. General Accounting Office, High-Risk Series: An Update, GAO-01-263 (January 2001), pp. 71-96.
11
400,000; by 2000, employment in such jobs had fallen to roughly half that level.
Over the same period, employment in less-skilled, white-collar, mostly clerical jobs
technical generally rose from 1985 to 2000. Examples of those positions include
workers today are more highly skilled and educated than those of 1985, and more are
white-collar. About 79 percent of the federal civilian workforce held jobs in white-
collar occupations in 1985, and about 40 percent of all jobs were designated as
professional or administrative (see Table 3). By 2000, those percentages had grown
to 87 percent and 56 percent, respectively. At the same time, the portion of the
civilian workforce with advanced degrees has also risen. In 1985, 30 percent of the
federal civilian workforce had a bachelor’s or higher degree; by 2000, the figure
stood at 40 percent.
Mirroring the trends described above, more of the white-collar workforce holds
jobs assigned high grades on the government’s pay schedule. In the federal pay
system, most white-collar workers are paid according to the General Schedule, a pay
structure of 15 grades. Job levels are based primarily on duties and responsibilities,
with the highest-paid jobs designated grade 15 and the lowest jobs grade 1. In 1985,
12
TABLE 3. OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF
FEDERAL WORKERS, 1985 AND 2000
Percentage of Occupational
Percentage of the Federal Group with a Bachelor’s or
Workforce Higher Degree
Occupational Group 1985 2000 1985 2000
White-Collar Workers
Professional 18 24 88 87
Administrative 23 32 46 47
Technical 17 19 13 14
Clerical 19 9 6 8
Other 2 3 8 16
Subtotal 79 87 38 46
Blue-Collar Workers 21 13 2 3
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office using data from the Office of Personnel Management.
NOTE: Data cover employees in the executive branch who have full-time work schedules.
isolate each factor’s precise contribution. Certainly, cutbacks in defense help explain
Department of Defense has been the government’s largest employer of those workers.
13
The loss of other less-skilled jobs may be an indication of the government’s
efforts to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of its operations. Many of the
automation and turning operations over to private firms, apply most appropriately to,
they may also increase the demand for highly trained personnel. For example,
contracting out to private firms, which often shifts lower-skilled work into the private
sector, may increase the role in government for well-trained professionals to prepare
and monitor contracts. Computerization and the rise of the Internet have also
14
APPENDIX: THE FEDERAL CIVILIAN WORKFORCE
This appendix table shows federal civilian employment by branch of government and
agency for each year from 1985 through 2000. It has a separate section that compares
agencies. The last section of the table provides information on employment totals
Legislative Branch 39.4 37.8 37.6 38.1 37.9 37.9 38.2 39.1 38.7
Judicial Branch 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.8 21.5 22.6 24.6 27.0 28.1
Executive Branch
Executive departments
Agriculture 115.4 111.2 111.0 115.2 117.8 118.9 118.4 122.3 120.9
Commerce 35.5 35.1 34.5 39.5 49.1 155.9 45.5 37.8 38.3
Defense 1,080.3 1,088.5 1,084.0 1,072.8 1,066.9 1,060.0 1,014.7 1,003.7 952.1
Education 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.0
Energy 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.5 18.6 20.5 20.7
HHSa 141.8 136.9 130.3 123.9 122.6 123.0 126.3 131.6 131.6
HUD 12.3 11.9 12.5 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 13.3
Interior 76.2 74.2 72.5 74.0 75.2 75.0 76.4 80.4 81.5
Justice 62.9 65.3 67.7 73.4 78.9 81.6 87.0 94.8 98.0
Labor 18.3 18.0 17.8 18.1 18.4 17.9 17.7 18.0 17.7
State 25.1 25.4 25.4 25.7 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.1
Transportation 62.4 61.6 61.7 62.7 64.6 66.5 67.8 70.3 70.0
Treasury 134.7 138.3 147.0 162.8 163.5 162.2 169.1 169.8 164.3
Veterans Affairsb 244.7 243.8 246.3 246.7 245.2 247.3 252.7 257.8 263.8
Subtotal 2,031.5 2,031.6 2,032.0 2,049.5 2,062.6 2,169.4 2,038.4 2,052.1 2,003.3
Independent Agencies
GSA 27.7 24.9 22.0 20.4 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.1 20.7
NASA 22.5 22.1 22.6 22.9 24.2 24.5 25.3 25.6 25.2
All other 128.8 129.0 131.1 133.9 127.4 134.4 139.8 140.0 140.2
Subtotal 179.0 176.0 175.7 177.2 171.5 179.1 185.7 186.7 186.1
Total, Executive Branch 2,210.5 2,207.6 2,207.7 2,226.7 2,234.1 2,348.5 2,224.1 2,238.8 2,189.4
Total, All Three Branchesc 2,267.5 2,264.0 2,264.8 2,285.6 2,293.5 2,409.0 2,286.9 2,304.9 2,256.2
Department of Defense 1,080.3 1,088.5 1,084.0 1,072.8 1,066.9 1,060.0 1,014.7 1,003.7 952.1
Non-Department of
Defense Agenciesc 1,187.2 1,175.5 1,180.8 1,212.8 1,226.6 1,349.0 1,272.2 1,301.2 1,304.1
U.S. Postal Service 733.9 782.7 810.3 827.7 839.9 824.3 813.5 800.9 786.6
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office using data from the Office of Personnel Management.
NOTES: Data are averages of monthly employment counts. Averages cover both permanent and temporary appointments, as well as full-time, part-time,
and other schedules. All geographic areas are represented, as are all agencies except the Central Intelligence Agency and other intelligence-
gathering organizations.
(Continued)
16
TABLE A-1. CONTINUED
Change Change
1985-2000 1999-2000
Num- Per- Num- Per-
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 ber cent ber cent
Legislative Branch 36.9 34.4 32.4 31.4 31.0 30.4 30.6 -8.8 -22.3 0.2 0.7
Judicial Branch 27.9 28.3 29.0 29.8 30.9 31.8 32.0 14.4 81.8 0.2 0.6
Executive Branch
Executive departments
Agriculture 115.6 109.1 105.1 102.8 100.9 100.0 99.9 -15.5 -13.4 -0.1 -0.1
Commerce 37.7 37.3 35.8 34.6 39.5 63.5 205.5 170.0 478.9 142.0 223.6
Defense 900.3 851.8 811.3 767.8 729.9 702.6 681.3 -399.0 -36.9 -21.3 -3.0
Education 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 -0.4 -7.8 0 0
Energy 20.2 20.0 18.8 17.5 16.4 16.0 15.7 -1.1 -6.5 -0.3 -1.9
HHSa 129.6 127.6 124.6 126.1 125.4 125.2 126.2 -15.6 -11.0 1.0 0.8
HUD 13.1 12.3 11.6 11.1 10.0 9.6 10.3 -2.0 -16.3 0.7 7.3
Interior 79.5 75.5 70.4 68.7 69.7 70.1 70.5 -5.7 -7.5 0.4 0.6
Justice 97.8 100.5 106.4 113.3 119.8 123.8 125.3 62.4 99.2 1.5 1.2
Labor 17.1 16.5 15.6 15.4 15.8 15.9 15.9 -2.4 -13.1 0 0
State 25.9 25.1 24.6 24.2 24.4 25.0 27.3 2.2 8.8 2.3 9.2
Transportation 66.9 63.8 63.0 63.2 64.1 64.3 63.6 1.2 1.9 -0.7 -1.1
Treasury 159.7 163.3 156.7 151.5 148.4 150.3 150.9 16.2 12.0 0.6 0.4
Veterans Affairsb 264.2 262.0 256.2 245.7 242.2 231.3 218.4 -26.3 -10.7 -12.9 -5.6
Subtotal 1,932.5 1,869.7 1,804.9 1,746.5 1,711.2 1,702.3 1,815.5 -216.0 -10.6 113.2 6.6
Independent Agencies
GSA 19.8 17.2 15.9 14.6 14.2 14.2 14.2 -13.5 -48.7 0 0
NASA 24.1 22.6 21.4 20.3 19.3 18.7 18.6 -3.9 -17.3 -0.1 -0.5
All other 138.1 128.3 118.7 113.7 110.5 110.8 98.5 -30.3 -23.5 -12.3 -11.1
Subtotal 182.0 168.1 156.0 148.6 144.0 143.7 131.3 -47.7 -26.6 -12.4 -8.6
Total, Executive Branch 2,114.5 2,037.8 1,960.9 1,895.1 1,855.2 1,846.0 1,946.8 -263.7 -11.9 100.8 5.5
Total, All Three Branchesc 2,179.3 2,100.5 2,022.3 1,956.3 1,917.1 1,908.1 2,009.4 -258.1 -11.4 101.3 5.3
Department of Defense 900.3 851.8 811.3 767.8 729.9 702.6 681.3 -399.0 -36.9 -21.3 -3.0
Non-Department of
Defense Agenciesc 1,279.0 1,248.7 1,211.0 1,188.5 1,187.2 1,205.5 1,328.1 140.9 11.9 122.6 10.2
U.S. Postal Service 813.6 842.0 858.4 860.1 865.7 880.2 869.4 135.5 18.5 -10.8 -1.2
NOTES: (Continued)
HHS = Health and Human Services; HUD = Housing and Urban Development; GSA = General Services Administration; NASA = National
Aeronautics and Space Administration.
a. For purposes of comparison, figures include the Social Security Administration, which became an independent agency in 1995.
b. The Department of Veterans Affairs replaced the Veterans Administration in March 1989.
c. Excludes the U.S. Postal Service.
17
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