Economist Liberalism
Economist Liberalism
Economist Liberalism
It is a tall order. And it is made taller by the fact that this has,
indeed, been a period of liberal ascendancy. Liberals like Wilson
saw themselves, by and large, in opposition to entrenched elites.
Today that is hard for liberals to do with a straight face. They have
been the shapers of the globalised world. If it is a smallish number
of the rich, and a large number of the very poor, who have done
best out of that ascendancy, rather than liberals per se, liberals
have still done pretty well; it is not too wide of the mark to
caricature their views on migration as more influenced by the ease
of employing a cleaner than by a fear of losing out. The wars,
financial crisis, techified economy, migrant flows and chronic
insecurity that have unsettled so many all happened on their watch,
and in part because of policies they promoted. This undermines
their credibility as agents of change.
II
Free markets and more
“JESUS CHRIST is free trade and free trade is Jesus Christ.” Even
by the standards of the 1840s, Sir John Bowring, a British
politician, made bold claims for the rock on which The Economist
was founded. But his zeal was of the times.
The case for getting rid of British tariffs on imported grain was not
a dry argument about economic efficiency. It was a mass
movement, one in which well-to-do liberal thinkers and progressive
businessmen fought alongside the poor against the landowners
who, by supporting tariffs on imports, kept up the price of grain. As
Ebenezer Elliott, a radical and factory owner, put it in one of the
poems that led him to be known as the “Corn Law rhymer”:
In 1995 the GATT became the WTO, and almost every country on
Earth now belongs to it. Tariffs are cut by negotiation and agreed
rates applied to all trade partners; a dispute-settlement system
authorises retaliation against miscreants. There are still high levies
on some goods, and many emerging economies, such as Egypt’s or
India’s, would benefit a lot if tariffs were cut further. But tariffs on
goods are in general no longer a big barrier to global commerce.
The best estimate is that getting rid of those which remain would
add only about 1% to global GDP.
By George he had it
They are spoilt for choice: there is much to do, from rewriting
campaign-finance laws that give lobbyists disproportionate power
in politics to removing the implicit subsidies still enjoyed in parts of
the financial system. In both those cases, and many more,
concentrations of power allow the rigged markets and rent-seeking
that liberals abhor. But the cause of free trade was powerful in its
simplicity, and in that respect two new targets stand out.
One is the market in urban land; the other, the anti-competitive
economics of the modern economy, and particularly of the digital-
technology businesses that increasingly dominate it. In both cases
monopoly power distorts markets in ways that are economically
significant, politically potent and ethically unjustifiable.
The best solution to this is not new: it was well known, and pursued
by liberals, in the 19th century. Tax landowners according to the
underlying market value of the land that they own. Such a tax
would capture for society part of the windfall that accrues to a
landowner when his local area thrives. Land taxes capable of
replacing all existing property taxes (which are raised on the value
of what sits on the land, rather than just the land itself) and then
some would greatly sharpen the incentive to develop. Because the
amount of land is fixed, a land tax, unlike most other taxes, does
not distort supply. At the same time, ease planning restrictions. It is
no good raising the incentive to develop if regulation then stands in
the way. But development rights have been so far collectivised in
many cities as to come close to undermining the very notion of
property. The curtailment of development rights enriches even
owners of vacant plots; if the windfall gains from soaring property
values are heavily taxed, NIMBYism will not be such a profitable
strategy. The problem is getting those owners to give up the
windfall and submit to a land tax in the first place.
Still, more affordable housing, more choice, lower prices and better
jobs remain causes that people can get behind. And the ability of
popular movements to grow as never before with the help of both
social and mass media is one of the striking aspects of the modern
age. This has allowed dissatisfaction with today’s liberal elite to
mushroom; it might allow a liberalism of new reforms, new ideas
and new alliances to do so, too.
This makes keeping the digital sector open and competitive all the
more vital. Barriers to wealth-creation there are bad enough.
Dominant companies which might limit, or skew, free expression,
open deliberation and self-determination—encouraging “jealousies
and animosities” in the realm of ideas—are worse.
III
Immigration in open societies
Substitute the word “Mexicans” for “Jews”, and this might have
been a Democrat on the floor of the House of Representatives
denouncing this year’s Securing America’s Future Act, a hardline
Republican immigration bill. In fact they are the words of Winston
Churchill, in 1904, speaking from the Liberal benches in opposition
to the Aliens Bill that the Conservatives had brought before the
House of Commons. The bill was the first attempt to legislate a
limit to migration into Britain.
There are four reasons to expect the issue to get yet more divisive.
First, migrant flows are likely to rise. People in the global south are
still poor compared with those in the north; modern
communications make them very aware of this; modern transport
networks mean that, poor as they are, many can afford to try to live
the life they see from afar. According to Gallup, 14% of the world’s
adults would like to migrate permanently to another country, and
most of those would-be migrants would like to go to western
Europe or the United States. Over the coming decades the
consequences of climate change are likely to force large numbers
of people, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, to
move, and though most will probably not move all that far, some
will try to go all the way. Some will be welcome; ageing populations
in developed countries will need more working-age people to look
after them and pay tax. It is very unlikely that all will.
Second, the world lacks good systems for managing migration. The
1951 UN Convention on Refugees set up a liberal and eventually
near-universal regime for people fleeing oppression and other state
malfeasance. It is ambitious and (theoretically) generous. There are
no other mechanisms that give people general rights to seek their
fortunes abroad. The result is that refugees’ treatment frequently
falls far short of the legal rights to which they are entitled.
Meanwhile low-skilled people without family members in rich
countries with whom they might seek to be reunited have no way
in. So some seek refugee status on dubious grounds.
IV
The new social contract
The system has tried to cope, especially with the bits that most
drain the public purse. But the coping has been neither sufficient
(increases in retirement age have not kept up with increases in life
expectancy) nor popular (people, especially people likely to rely on
state pensions, do not like having the retirement age raised). As for
helping people to adapt to changes in the world of work, much too
little has been done. The greatly increased need for parental leave
and for some forms of child care has been scarcely addressed.
Workers desperate for new skills see public investment in
education overwhelmingly directed at the not-yet-employed.
Meanwhile the interaction of tax policy and welfare system often
makes jobs unreasonably unattractive. Nearly 40% of the jobless in
the OECD see a marginal tax rate of more than 80% when they
start work.
UBI enchaîné
This means that a liberal rethink of the welfare state starts with
education. Thanks to earlier liberal reformers, who sought
universal schooling in the 19th century and welcomed greatly
expanded universities in the 20th, today’s states make their
educational investments mostly in people from five or six to 20 or
21. This no longer makes much sense. Pre-school interventions,
including many not specifically aimed at the classroom, do a lot
more for the life chances of poor children than spending on
universities does. And people can need training and further
education a long time after their years of university and
apprenticeship. There is a case for a big change in priorities here.
This adds up to an agenda for reform much bigger than the tax-and-
welfare tinkering seen over recent decades. In some ways these
changes are likely to be politically harder than the reforms which
built up the welfare state and the taxation systems which support it
in the first place. It is easier to build from scratch than to attempt
to change a huge and complex edifice on which millions rely, which
millions resent, and which all have opinions on. And all this needs
to happen in a world where the threat of socialism no longer scares
conservatives into taking the liberal side.
V
A liberal world order to fight for
WERE a single document to mark the high-point of liberal-world-
order hubris, it would surely be “The End of History?”, an essay
written by Francis Fukuyama, an American academic, in 1989. Mr
Fukuyama’s question, posed a couple of months before the fall of
the Berlin Wall, was whether the world was seeing the
“universalisation of Western liberal democracy as the final form of
human government”. His answer was yes.
Mr Fukuyama thought the end of the cold war would let the liberal
internationalist project move beyond its reliance on American
power. The prosperous examples of America, Europe, East Asia’s
tiger economies and a Latin America abandoning military rule,
along with a lack of alternatives, would bring the rest of the world
on board. So it did, to some extent, for a while. But it was far from
universal. And America has become an unhappy Atlas.
Military capabilities are crucial. Only with them firmly in hand can
the most be made of the world’s many mechanisms for peace. In
the cold war, the West and the Soviet Union had few economic
links. The big economies of the 21st century are highly integrated.
The gains to be reaped from working together to repair, reform and
sustain the rules-based trade and economic system are huge.
A decade ago the late John McCain proposed the idea of a “league
of democracies”. Such a league’s members might champion liberal,
democratic values and at the same time hold each other to account
in such matters. It is an idea worth revisiting as a credible and
useful alternative forum to the UN. The more clearly the people of
liberal democracies can show that their countries work well, and
work well together, the more secure they will feel, the more secure
they will be and the more others will wish to join them. The world
needs a vision of international relations which shores up,
promulgates and defends liberal ideals. If liberal nations look only
inward and give up either the power or the will to act, they will lose
the moment, and perhaps their future.
VI
A call to arms
OVER the past couple of years there has been a boom in gloomy
books with titles such as “The Retreat of Western Liberalism” or
“Has the West Lost It?”. Magazine articles routinely ask “Is
Democracy Dying?” (Foreign Affairs and more recently the Atlantic)
or “What’s killing liberalism?” (the Atlantic again). The cock-of-the-
walk confidence with which liberals strode into the 21st century
has given way to trembling self-doubt.
Liberals need to shake themselves out of this torpor. And they need
to persuade others of their ideas. All too often, in recent years,
liberal reforms have been imposed by judges, by central banks and
by unaccountable supranational organisations. Perhaps the best-
founded part of today’s reaction against liberalism is the outrage
people feel when its nostrums are imposed on them with
condescending promises that they will be the better for it.
That means free speech—a lot of it. And speech that is well
informed and in good faith, too. But as autocrats gain clout, the
room for free speech is shrinking. Only 13% of the world’s people
live in a country with a truly free press, according to Freedom
House. In America, Donald Trump’s pathological lying and constant
attacks on the media as “enemies of the people” and “fake news”
are taking their toll. But the fact-free world of paranoid fantasy that
right-wing media provide for his followers is a bigger problem.