17020841116

Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 13

DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION

08/23/2018

All figures are in $000's


Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revenue 68,502.0 71,927.1 75,523.5 78,544.4 81,686.2


% Growth Rate 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Cost of goods sold 51,719.0 54,664.6 58,153.1 61,264.6 64,123.6


75.5% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 78.5%

Gross Margin 16,783.0 17,262.5 17,370.4 17,279.8 17,562.5


Gross Margin 24.5% 24.0% 23.0% 22.0% 21.5%

Operating Expenses
Selling Expenses 2,750.0 2,868.0 2,875.0 3,570.0 3,250.0
Admin & Other Expenses 5,805.0 5,900.0 5,802.0 6,120.0 6,054.0
Rent & Maintenance 1,350.0 1,357.0 1,350.0 1,380.0 1,390.0
Total Operating Expenses 9,905.0 10,125.0 10,027.0 11,070.0 10,694.0
% of Sales 14.5% 14.1% 13.3% 14.1% 13.1%

EBITDA 6,878.0 7,137.5 7,343.4 6,209.8 6,868.5


EBITDA Margin 10.0% 9.9% 9.7% 7.9% 8.4%

Depreciation 1,225.0 1,141.5 1,062.4 1,141.1 1,126.0


Interest Expense 810.0 810.0 810.0 810.0 810.0

EBT 4,843.0 5,186.0 5,471.0 4,258.7 4,932.5

Tax 1,210.7 1,296.5 1,367.8 1,064.7 1,233.1

Net Income 3,632.2 3,889.5 4,103.3 3,194.0 3,699.4


Net Margin 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 4.1% 4.5%
All figures are in $000's
Balance Sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Assets
Cash and Marketable Securities 4,382.2 7,941.2 9,706.1 12,505.9 9,372.8
Accounts Receivable 5,137.7 5,754.2 6,721.6 6,990.5 7,515.1
Inventory 7,956.8 8,409.9 8,946.6 9,425.3 14,912.5
Fixed Assets 11,415.0 10,623.5 11,411.2 11,260.0 10,984.0
Total Assets 28,891.7 32,728.8 36,785.5 40,181.7 42,784.5

Liabilities & Equity


Operating Line - - - - -
Accounts Payable 3,878.9 3,826.5 3,779.9 3,982.2 2,885.6
Long Term Debt 13,500.0 13,500.0 13,500.0 13,500.0 13,500.0
Total Liabilities 17,378.9 17,326.5 17,279.9 17,482.2 16,385.6

Common Shares 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0


Retained Earnings 11,462.7 15,352.2 19,455.5 22,649.5 26,348.9
Total Equity 11,512.7 15,402.2 19,505.5 22,699.5 26,398.9
Total Liabilities & Equity 28,891.7 32,728.8 36,785.5 40,181.7 42,784.5
PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS
All figures are in $000's
Target Company Date Sales* EBITDA* Price** Description
Aristocrat Products Apr-08 135,000.0 14,850.0 $ 81,675 Automotive care
Franston Dec-12 120,000.0 7,200.0 $ 36,000 Automotive care
Specialty Care Nov-11 98,000.0 5,880.0 $ 28,224 Automotive care
Direct All Jun-10 365,000.0 29,200.0 $ 292,000 Automotive care
Venator Jul-14 75,000.0 7,500.0 $ 35,250 Automotive care

Notes:
* Sales and EBITDA are from the final year before the date of the deal.
** Price is for the entire firm (enterprise value).
PROJECTIONS

All figures are in $000's


2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenue 83,319.9 85,402.9 87,110.9 88,853.2


% Growth Rate 2.00% 2.50% 2.00% 2.00%

Cost of goods sold 62,898.0 64,011.0 64,560.0 65,825.0


75.5% 75.0% 74.1% 74.1%

Gross Margin 20,421.9 21,391.9 22,550.9 23,028.2


Gross Margin % 24.5% 25.0% 25.9% 25.9%

Operating Expenses

Selling Expenses 3,332.8 3,501.5 3,658.7 3,820.7


4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3%
Admin & Other Expenses 6,165.7 6,319.8 6,446.2 6,575.1
7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4%
Rent & Maintenance 1,416.4 1,451.8 1,480.9 1,510.5
1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Total Operating Expenses 10,914.9 11,273.2 11,585.8 11,906.3

% of Sales 13.1% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4%

Operating Income 9,507.0 10,118.7 10,965.2 11,121.8


Operating Income Margin 11.4% 11.8% 12.6% 12.5%

Depreciation (1098.4) (1098.6) (1098.7) (1098.8)

Capital Expenditures (1100.0) (1100.0) (1100.0) (1100.0)

Working Capital Change (1287.9) (520.7) (427.0) (435.6)

Tax Rate 25% 25% 25% 25%


2020F

90,630.2
2.00%

66,780.0
73.7%

23,850.2
26.3%

3,897.1
4.3%
6,706.6
7.4%
1,540.7
1.7%
12,144.5

13.4%

11,705.8
12.9%

(1099.0)

(1100.0)

(444.3)

25%
PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS
All figures are in $000's
Target Company Date Sales* EBITDA* Price** Description EBITDA Mu
Aristocrat Products Apr-08 135,000.0 14,850.0 $ 81,675 Automotive care
Franston Dec-12 120,000.0 7,200.0 $ 36,000 Automotive care
Specialty Care Nov-11 98,000.0 5,880.0 $ 28,224 Automotive care
Direct All Jun-10 365,000.0 29,200.0 $ 292,000 Automotive care
Venator Jul-14 75,000.0 7,500.0 $ 35,250 Automotive care

Notes:
* Sales and EBITDA are from the final year before the date of the deal.
** Price is for the entire firm (enterprise value).

Estimate used for Ebitda


Multiple for valuation Option 1
Estimate used for Ebitda
Multiple for valuation (without
Estimated Value of Buck Auto Care Products outlier) Option 2

EBITDA 2015 Value of


Debt Value of Equity
Multiple EBITDA Firm
Option 1 6.0x 6,868.5 41,211.2 13,500.0 27,711.2
Option 2 5.0x 6,868.5 34,342.6 13,500.0 20,842.6

EBITDA 2016E Value of Debt Value of Equity


Multiple EBITDA Firm
Option 1 6.0x 9,507.0 57,041.9 13,500.0 43,541.9
Option 2 5.0x 9,507.0 47,534.9 13,500.0 34,034.9
EBITDA Multiple
5.5x
5.0x
4.8x
10.0x
4.7x

6.0x

5.0x
Estimated Value of Buck Auto Care Products
DCF 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Free Cash Flow (FCF)


Revenue 83,319.9 85,402.9 87,110.9 88,853.2 90,630.2
EBITDA Margin 11.4% 11.8% 12.6% 12.5% 12.9%
EBITDA 9,507.0 10,118.7 10,965.2 11,121.8 11,705.8
Environmental costs (980.0) (980.0) (980.0) (980.0) (980.0)
less: Depreciation (1,098.4) (1,098.6) (1,098.7) (1,098.8) (1,099.0)
EBIT 7,428.6 8,040.1 8,886.5 9,043.0 9,626.8
less: Tax (1,857.1) (2,010.0) (2,221.6) (2,260.8) (2,406.7)
EBIAT 5,571.4 6,030.1 6,664.9 6,782.3 7,220.1

EBIAT 5,571.4 6,030.1 6,664.9 6,782.3 7,220.1


Depreciation (1,098.4) (1,098.6) (1,098.7) (1,098.8) (1,099.0)
Capex (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0)
Working Capital Investment (1,287.9) (520.7) (427.0) (435.6) (444.3)
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 4,281.9 5,507.9 6,236.6 6,345.5 6,774.8

WACC Calculation
Weighting: Amounts %
Debt (Wd) 16,385.6 38.3%
Equity (We) 26,398.9 61.7%
Tax rate (t) 25.0%
Cost of Equity (Ke) 22.50%
Cost of Debt Before-Tax 6.00%
Cost of Debt After-Tax (Kd) 4.50%
WACC(Kc) 15.61%
Growth after 20 1.50%
Present Value (PV) of FCFs
Discount Factor 0.87 0.75 0.65 0.56 0.48
PV of FCF 3,703.9 4,121.2 4,036.4 3,552.6 3,280.9
Total PV of FCFs $ 18,694.9

Using
Multiple Using FCFF growth
Terminal Value Calculation Approach Approach
58528.89 48746.9622130832
PV 28344.0192 23606.8841654144

Value of the Firm

Value of the firm 37,902.5 47,793.9

Value of Equity 24,402.5 to 34,293.9


Comments

Ke $ 42,301.83
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%

28530
Estimated Value of Buck Auto Care Products
DCF 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Free Cash Flow (FCF)


Revenue 83,319.9 85,402.9 87,110.9 88,853.2 90,630.2
EBITDA Margin 11.4% 11.8% 12.6% 12.5% 12.9%
EBITDA 9,507.0 10,118.7 10,965.2 11,121.8 11,705.8
less: Depreciation (1,098.4) (1,098.6) (1,098.7) (1,098.8) (1,099.0)
EBIT 8,408.6 9,020.1 9,866.5 10,023.0 10,606.8
less: Tax (1,891.9) (2,029.5) (2,220.0) (2,255.2) (2,386.5)
EBIAT 6,516.7 6,990.6 7,646.5 7,767.8 8,220.3

EBIAT 6,516.7 6,990.6 7,646.5 7,767.8 8,220.3


Depreciation (1,098.4) (1,098.6) (1,098.7) (1,098.8) (1,099.0)
Capex (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0)
Working Capital Investment (1,287.9) (520.7) (427.0) (435.6) (444.3)
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 5,227.1 6,468.4 7,218.2 7,331.1 7,775.0

WACC Calculation
Weighting: Amounts %
Debt (Wd) 16,385.6 38.3%
Equity (We) 26,348.9 61.7%
Tax rate (t) 25.0%
Cost of Equity (Ke) 22.50%
Cost of Debt Before-Tax 6.00%
Cost of Debt After-Tax (Kd) 4.50%
WACC(Kc) 15.60%
Growth after 20 1.50%
Present Value (PV) of FCFs
Discount Factor 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87
PV of FCF 4,521.8 5,595.6 6,244.2 6,341.9 6,725.9
Total PV of FCFs $ 29,429.4

Using
Using FCFF
Multiple growth
Terminal Value Calculation Approach Approach
58528.89 55975.52
PV 28353.9088 27116.9469

Value of the Firm

Value of the firm 52,532.0 64,547.4

Value of Equity 39,032.0 to 51,047.4


Comments

Ke $ 56,546.32
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%

58528.894521897
Estimated Value of Buck Auto Care Products
DCF 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Free Cash Flow (FCF)


Revenue 83,319.9 85,402.9 87,110.9 88,853.2 90,630.2
EBITDA Margin 11.4% 11.8% 12.6% 12.5% 12.9%
EBITDA 9,507.0 10,118.7 10,965.2 11,121.8 11,705.8
Environmental costs (980.0) (980.0) (980.0) (980.0) (980.0)
less: Depreciation (1,098.4) (1,098.6) (1,098.7) (1,098.8) (1,099.0)
EBIT 7,428.6 8,040.1 8,886.5 9,043.0 9,626.8
less: Tax (1,857.1) (2,010.0) (2,221.6) (2,260.8) (2,406.7)
EBIAT 5,571.4 6,030.1 6,664.9 6,782.3 7,220.1

EBIAT 5,571.4 6,030.1 6,664.9 6,782.3 7,220.1


Depreciation (1,098.4) (1,098.6) (1,098.7) (1,098.8) (1,099.0)
Capex (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0) (1,100.0)
Working Capital Investment (1,287.9) (520.7) (427.0) (435.6) (444.3)
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 4,281.9 5,507.9 6,236.6 6,345.5 6,774.8

WACC Calculation
Weighting: Amounts %
Debt (Wd) 13,500.0 33.8%
Equity (We) 26,398.9 66.2%
Tax rate (t) 25.0%
Cost of Equity (Ke) 22.50%
Cost of Debt Before-Tax 6.00%
Cost of Debt After-Tax (Kd) 4.50%
WACC(Kc) 16.41%
Growth after 20 1.50%
Present Value (PV) of FCFs
Discount Factor 0.86 0.74 0.63 0.54 0.47
PV of FCF 3,159.8 3,491.6 3,396.2 2,968.4 3,169.2
Total PV of FCFs $ 16,185.2

Using
Multiple Using FCFF growth
Terminal Value Calculation Approach Approach
46120.7891107404

Value of the Firm

Value of the firm 56,863.1 68,961.5

Value of Equity 43,363.1 to 55,461.5


Comments

Ke 62305.969
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%

Terminal
58528.8945218972

You might also like