Adani Ports and Sez Economic Zone Companyname: Strong Quarter Encouraging Guidance
Adani Ports and Sez Economic Zone Companyname: Strong Quarter Encouraging Guidance
Adani Ports and Sez Economic Zone Companyname: Strong Quarter Encouraging Guidance
o Cargo: To grow 1.5x of India cargo growth (expect industry cargo growth of 5.8%)
o Ports growth: Mundra would grow in high single digits, Hazira and Dahej 20%,
Kattupalli 25-30% and Dhamra 20-25%.
o Port margins: Port EBIDTA margins would improve from 70% to 71% in FY19
following change in cargo mix, operational efficiency and use of technology
o Capex of INR25bn would be incurred every year for the next three years
SEZ business: Management mentioned it has clear visibility of INR45-50bn revenues over
next four-five years. For FY19, it expects SEZ revenues to be ~INR10bn with higher margins
(FY18 margins were lower due to higher proportion of capex related revenues).
Management indicated that LPG and LNG are two big avenues for the SEZ business.
Dedicated Freight Corridor: APSEZ mentioned that there is some delay in commissioning of
DFC and it expects DC to be connected to the Mundra port by mid-2020, which should be at
least two years prior to the connection with the JNPT port.
Diversion of cargo to continue: Management seemed unperturbed by the new PSA terminal
at JNPT and reiterated that it expects the diversion of cargo to continue. While Central India
cargo would go to Hazira, Northern India cargo would go to Mundra and Western
(Maharashtra) would go to JNPT. Moreover, shipping liners would continue to make at least
2port of calls in near future.
Logistics business: APSEZ has started construction for PFT’s in Baroda and Bengaluru, while
the land acquisition is in place for Panipat and Cochin. The company has placed order for 10
rakes under long term lease.
Currently, dollar revenues are 35% of overall revenues. The company has a commensurate
hedging policy in place which is long term (three-four years).
APSEZ at a glance: Healthy overall cargo volume growth of 7% YoY to 180MMTPA as against
an all-India growth of 4%. Revenue grew 34% to ~ INR113bn, while EBITDA surged 32% to
INR72bn. EBITDA margin stood at 64%, excluding forex gain/loss.
This was on the backdrop of strong container volume growth of 20% in ports business,
crossing 5mn TEU’s in FY18. Ports business EBITDA margin improved 100bps to 70%, while
revenue jumped 7% to INR739bn and EBITDA improved 10% to INR52bn, adjusting for forex
gain/loss.
1) Mundra port: During Q4FY18, Mundra cargo volume grew by 4% to 30MTPA. FY18
volume grew by 7% to 121MTPA, revenue grew 34% to INR63.5bn and EBITDA grew
27% to INR45bn. This was despite lower off take by HMEL- Bathinda pipeline and APL to
the tune of 8MTPA for whole FY18. This is largely attributable to strong container
growth of 18% YoY and handling more than 4mm TEU’s at Mundra. This cements
Mundra’s position as the container hub of the West with strong operational efficiency.
CT-4 terminal became operational. Management expects high single digit growth in
volumes for FY19.
2) Dhamra Port: Dhamra continued to face issues with limited rake availability and
shutdown due to expansion and mechanisation activities resulting in flattish volume
off-take at 21.45MTPA for FY18 as against 21.41MTPA for FY17. Revenue slipped 17%
to INR9.3bn and EBITDA slipped 29% to INR5.36bn YoY for FY18. EBITDA margin
dropped to 58% in FY18 from 67% in FY17. With Phase-1 expansion complete and rake
issue getting resolved management expects Dhamra to record strong volume growth
upwards of 20% in FY19. Entire 35MTPA capacity is operational.
3) Hazira Port: For Q4FY18, the port reported 12% QoQ volume growth with handling of
additional commodities like Para Xylene, Orhto Xylene, etc. Cargo volume grew 10%
YoY to 16.87MTPA. Container volume particularly grew 21% YoY handling 0.5mm TEU’s.
EBITDA margin came in at 72%.
4) Dahej Port: Lower coal import impacted Q4FY18 with 7% volume slippage. However,
overall volume grew 10% YoY to ~7MTPA for FY18. Revenue grew 3% to INR33.5 mm
while EBITDA was largely flattish at INR 2.2bn. EBITDA margin came in at 66%.
5) Kattupalli Port: Volume grew 37% YoY for FY18 and 47% QoQ for Q4FY18 .
As a % of sales
Direct costs 30.4 27.2 25.4 29.3 29.2 30.8
Employee cost 3.8 5.1 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.2
Other operating expenses 12.1 8.0 (2.6) 4.4 4.4 4.2
EBITDA 53.8 59.8 73.2 62.4 63.0 61.9
Reported net profit 29.2 38.7 37.2 32.4 35.5 36.2
Tax rate 29.9 1.4 30.4 29.5 27.0 27.0
Company Description
APSEZ is the seamless integration of 3 verticals consisting of Ports, Logistics and Special
Economic Zone. The company has pan India presence in ten locations (nine are operational)
with the flagship Mundra port in the Gulf of Kachchh, also India’s largest commercial port..
APSEZ has both the capacity and ability to handle multiple cargo at its ports. APSEZ has a
large land bank of 8,481 hectares of contiguous land at Mundra, with requisite approvals
and clearances in place and provides a diversified revenue stream. APSEZ has been investing
in tightly integrated assets, with an objective of reducing bottlenecks in the overall logistics
value chain - saving time and cost for its customer.
Investment Theme
Sound business fundamentals
Sustainable market share gains at Mundra (Containers particularly), expansion of LPG, LNG
terminals at Mundra& Dhamra Port and upcoming Vizhingham port is likely to keep volume
growth ticking in double digits for the next 3-4 years. Further, we see Dhamra port as the
next Mundra Port (aligning to tremendous potential in Bulk Cargo and Gs potential ).
APSEZ to benefit from consolidation of volumes: As shipping lines deploy larger vessels and
consolidate routes, the focus will move to ports with O&D demand over transhipment. Thus
this consolidation will help APSEZ given its scale, pan India presence and existing strong
relationships with container liner companies.
Logistics, the dark horse - 70% CAGR over next three-four years
Leveraging its relationships with shipping liners and its ability to offer end-to-end solutions
can make ALL’s business sizable (targeting 5x revenues over next four years). Management
aims to achieve this with an asset light model and roadmap including Railway transportation,
Private Freight terminals, trucking and Warehousing.
Key Risks
Uncertainty in traffic at ports: Since cargo at ports is contingent on international trade, any
slowdown in it could affect Mundra Port as well.
Regulatory changes regarding SEZs: The existing SEZ policies and benefits outlined by the
government to promote exports are relatively new and are being continuously reviewed.
Any changes in the form of reversal of current tax benefits to units under the SEZ umbrella
will significantly undermine incentives for industries to setup units in the SEZ, hampering
current plans of land sale. Land parcel sale at the SEZ is yet to pick up.
Financial Statements
Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Macro Net revenue 84,394 113,230 116,423 137,230
GDP(Y-o-Y %) 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 Cost of Operations 18,905 33,151 33,946 42,218
Inflation (Avg) 4.5 3.6 4.5 5.0 Other operating expenses 4,736 4,984 5,150 5,724
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.5 Employee costs 3,831 4,473 3,997 4,380
USD/INR (Avg) 67.1 64.5 65.0 66.0 Total operating expenses 27,472 42,608 43,093 52,322
Company EBITDA 56,921 70,621 73,329 84,908
Mundra cargo (MT) 114.2 121.4 132.5 141.8 Depreciation 11,602 11,884 13,950 15,259
Avg. realisation (INR/t) 336 392 398 403 EBIT 45,319 58,738 59,379 69,649
Avg realisation (INR/t) 526 520 520 551 Add: Other income 10,401.1 10,109.29 9,547.61 9,166.51
Capex (INR mn) 32,479 26,940 26,818 26,921 Less: Interest Expense 13,932 14,954 13,465 12,163
Net borrowings (INR mn) 206,410 198,654 191,680 175,606 Add: Exceptional items - (1,552) - -
Avg. Interest rate (%) 5.1 5.6 5.3 4.8 Profit Before Tax 41,789 52,341 55,462 66,652
Depreciation rate (%) 4.6 4.2 4.5 4.5 Less: Provision for Tax 2,866 15,442 14,975 17,996
Dividend payout (%) 6.9 11.3 15.0 15.0 Less: Minority Interest (100) 163 (868) (1,085)
Tax rate (%) 6.9 29.5 27.0 27.0 Associate profit share 93 - - -
Reported Profit 39,115 36,736 41,356 49,741
Exceptional Items - 1,552 - -
Adjusted Profit 39,115 35,184 41,356 49,741
Shares o /s (mn) 2,070 2,070 2,070 2,071
Adjusted Basic EPS 18.9 17.0 20.0 24.0
Diluted shares o/s (mn) 2,070 2,070 2,070 2,071
Adjusted Diluted EPS 18.9 17.0 20.0 24.0
Adjusted Cash EPS 24.5 22.7 26.7 31.4
Dividend per share (DPS) 1.3 2.0 3.0 3.6
Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 8.3 13.5 18.0 18.0
Additional Data
Directors Data
Mr. Gautam S. Adani CMD, Promoter & Executive Director Mr. Rajesh S. Adani Promoter & Non-Independent Director
Dr. Malay Mahadevia Executive Director Prof. G. Raghuram Independent & Non Executive Director
Mr. G.K. Pillai Independent & Non Executive Director Mr. Sanjay Lalbhai Independent & Non Executive Director
Mr. A. K. Rakesh GMB Nominee Ms. Radhika Haribhakti Independent & Non Executive Director
Holding – Top10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
Adani gautam s 42.97 Life insurance corp 7.59
Adani tradeline 6.78 Afro asia trade & in 4.42
Emerging market inv 4.13 Universal trading co 3.9
Worldwide emerge mkt 3.82 Fmr llc 1.59
Vanguard group 1.42 Blackrock 1.35
*in last one year
Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
No Data Available
*in last one year
Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
05 Feb 2018 Emerging Market Investment DMCC Buy 150000.00
29 Jan 2018 Emerging Market Investment DMCC Buy 8250000.00
25 Jan 2018 Emerging Market Investment DMCC Buy 2200000.00
24 Jan 2018 Emerging Market Investment DMCC Buy 1750000.00
03 Jan 2018 Emerging Market Investment DMCC Buy 950000.00
*in last one year
ABSOLUTE RATING
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector
SECTOR RATING
Ratings Criteria
Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]
ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED,
Aditya Narain ou=HEAD RESEARCH, cn=ADITYA NARAIN,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c2799
0f20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792c2
NARAIN
Head of Research 0, postalCode=400005,
2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8e
0c89e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c07b02,
[email protected] st=Maharashtra
Date: 2018.05.04 00:09:55 +05'30'
Recent Research
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
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Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
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