CURRENCY FUTURES

A contract to make or take delivery of a standard quantity of a specific foreign currency at a specified
future date and at a price agreed on an Exchange.

Currency futures in India

•Currency futures trading were started in Mumbai August 29, 2008. •With over 300 trading members including
11 banks registered in this segment, the first day saw a very lively counter, with nearly 70,000 contracts being
traded.
•The first trade on the NSE was by East India Securities Ltd.
•Amongst the banks, HDFC Bank carried out the first trade.
The largest trade was by Standard Chartered Bank constituting 15,000 contracts. Banks contributed 40 percent
of the total gross volume.
•Traded in BSE, NSE and MCX exchange

Currency Futures
Standardized foreign exchange derivative contract
•Traded on a recognized exchange
•Underlying is the exchange rates
•Traded in limited number of currencies
•Price and date of delivery-predetermined

A currency future, also FX future or foreign exchange future, is a futures contract to exchange one currency
for another at a specified date in the future at a price (exchange rate) that is fixed on the purchase date;.
Typically, one of the currencies is the US dollar. The price of a future is then in terms of US dollars per unit of
other currency. This can be different from the standard way of quoting in the spot foreign exchange markets.
The trade unit of each contract is then a certain amount of other currency, for instance €125,000. Most
contracts have physical delivery, so for those held at the end of the last trading day, actual payments are made
in each currency. However, most contracts are closed out before that. Investors can close out the contract at any
time prior to the contract's delivery date.

History
Currency futures were first created at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in 1972, less than one year after
the system of fixed exchange rates was abandoned along with the gold standard. Some commodity traders at the
CME did not have access to the inter-bank exchange markets in the early 1970s, when they believed that
significant changes were about to take place in the currency market. They established the International
Monetary Market (IMM) and launched trading in seven currency futures on May 16, 1972. Today, the IMM is a
division of CME. In the fourth quarter of 2009, CME Group FX volume averaged 754,000 contracts per day,
reflecting average daily notional value of approximately $100 billion. Currently most of these are traded
electronically[1]

Example
Contract Best Bid Best Offer Spread LTP

48.6525 48.6550 0.0025 48.6550

USD/INR
240/210
Feb end
2010
If A has to sell 100 contracts of USDINR expiring on 24/02/09, he will sell at the Best Bid rate
48.6525.
If A has to buy 100 contracts of USDINR expiring on 24/02/09, he will buy at the Best Offer rate 48.6550.

Eg:
Category Description =Underlying Rate of exchange between 1 USD and INR
Contract Size =USD 1000
Contract months =12 near calendar months
Expiry =12:00 noon of Last Trading day of the month
Min Price Fluctuations =0.25 ps or INR 0.0025
1 Contract = USD 1000
USDINR = 48.5925
Contract Value = 1000*48.5925 = 48592.50 INR
If there is 1 tick movement then gain/loss:
Tick Value = 1,000 x 0.0025 = INR 2.50/contract
Margin requirementInitial, Calendar, Extreme Loss, Marked to Market

FEATURES
 Settlement =Cash settled in INR. No physical delivery of the underlying currency
 Settlement Price =RBI Reference Rate of Last Trading Day.
 Last Trading Day =Two Business days before the Final Settlement day of the contract
 Final Settlement Day =Last Business day of the month for interbankForex settlement (as per FEDAI
guidelines).
  Position Limits =Client Level: The gross open positions of the client across all contracts should
not exceed 6% of the total open interest or 10 million USD, whichever is higher.
 Trading Member level: The gross open positions of the trading member across all contracts should not
exceed 15% of the total open interest or 50* million USD whichever is higher. (*In case of a Bank it is
USD100 million)

 Only USD-INR contracts are allowed to be traded.

 Standardized contract size - $1000.
 The contracts quoted and settled in Indian Rupees.
 The maturity of the contracts shall not exceed 12 months.
 Settled on specified future date called as settlement date.
 Only resident Indians are allowed to trade in currency futures.
 Future price= Spot Price + Cost of Carry

HEDGING
Hedge means, “To minimize loss or risk”. It means taking a position in the futures market that is opposite to a
position in the physical market with a view to reduce or limit risk associated with unpredictable changes in the
exchange rate.
•Hence, it entails two positions:–Underlying Position–Hedging Position i.e. position opposite from the
underlying position.

HOW TO HEDGE?
Example:
The Importer enters into a contract on 1st June to make a payment for USD on 25thNovember, 09. He is of the
view that Rupee will depreciate.
The importer will buy November CF Contract: 1 USD = Rs. 40 25th November OTC market ongoing rate = Rs.
42The importer will book actual import at Rs. 42.
The importer will wind up the futures contract at Rs. 42. Thereby generating a profit of Rs. 2.
Effective rate of import = Rs. 42 –Rs. 2 (profit on CF) = Rs. 40(This is very simplified example, just to
introduce the concept.)

Imperfections in hedging with Currency Futures

Maturity mismatch –Mismatch in maturity date of futures contract and date of cash transaction
•Size mismatch –Mismatch between size of futures contract and size of cash transaction
•Hedging with currency futures may not result inperfect hedge
•Final delivery of the foreign currency will take place only through the banking system

Uses
Hedging
Investors use these futures contracts to hedge against foreign exchange risk. If an investor will receive a
cashflow denominated in a foreign currency on some future date, that investor can lock in the current exchange
rate by entering into an offsetting currency futures position that expires on the date of the cashflow.
For example, Jane is a US-based investor who will receive €1,000,000 on December 1. The current exchange
rate implied by the futures is $1.2/€. She can lock in this exchange rate by selling €1,000,000 worth of futures
contracts expiring on December 1. That way, she is guaranteed an exchange rate of $1.2/€ regardless of
exchange rate fluctuations in the meantime.

Speculation
Currency futures can also be used to speculate and, by incurring a risk, attempt to profit from rising or falling
exchange rates.
For example, Peter buys 10 September CME Euro FX Futures, at $1.2713/€. At the end of the day, the futures
close at $1.2784/€. The change in price is $0.0071/€. As each contract is over €125,000, and he has 10
contracts, his profit is $8,875. As with any future, this is paid to him immediately.

Eligibility for trade in Currency Futures

Only 'persons resident in India' may trade in Currency Futures to hedge an exposure to foreign exchange rate
risk or otherwise. Any resident Indian or company including banks and financial institutions can participate in
the Currency Futures market. At present Foreign Institutional Investors and Non-Resident Indians are not
permitted to participate in the Currency Futures market.

Benefits of trading in Currency Futures

 Currency Futures trading is in a fully regulated and transparent market place.
 It does not require one to have an underlying exposure in foreign currency.
 If the Client has an underlying exposure in the foreign currency, Currency Futures can be used effectively
to hedge the same. It allows hedge for near 12 calendar months.
 Currency Futures provide investors with access to a new asset class for their portfolio, i.e., Forex.
 Margin trading in Currency Futures allows leverage of funds as it involves buying Currency Futures
without having to pay for the entire value of the contract.
 Daily settlement of Marked to Market pay-in and pay-out encourages disciplined trading.
 Smaller and more affordable contract lot size enables a large number of players to enter the market.
 All the trades are done on the recognized stock exchanges guaranteed by the clearing corporations and
hence the risks associated with counter party default are eliminated
 .Electronic Trading platform is made available for Currency Futures Trading. Without access to a
computer, one can also do trades by calling Axis Bank Dealing Room and placing orders with the dealers
who will inturn place orders on the Exchange trading platform on the Client's behalf.
 Currency Futures are cash settled and offer convenience to trade.

 Hedging Currency Risks

Hedging currency risk is the act of reducing or negating the risks that arise out of changes in the prices of
one currency against another. In simpler words, if you had a certain amount payable in dollars in two
months time and had planned accordingly for it, only to find out that the dollar has appreciated with
respect to your home currency, you'd be shelling out much more when the payable actually became due.
The strategies that help in countering this risk of unexpected increase in payables in decrease in
receivables come under the 'hedging currency risks' purview. Know more on foreign exchange hedging.
Various Options for Hedging Currency Risks
There are many ways to hedge foreign currency risks. You can use any of the below mentioned foreign
currency hedging methods to hedge foreign exchange risks and also for other risks, like for hedging
interest rate risks.

Internal Hedging Strategies

Internal tactics like leading and lagging can ensure that you utilize the exchange rate movements to ensure
that you always pay less and earn more. That is, when you can lead payments (pay them in advance) when
you expect the home currency to depreciate with respect to the foreign currency. Similarly netting the
payments and receipts that are in the same foreign currency will also help reduce the exposure.

Forward Transactions
Hedging currency risks with forward transaction is a relatively easy to implement hedging strategy. In
this, the currency payment or receipt is locked in at a particular exchange rate for a pre-specified rate in
the future, irrespective of what the actual market exchange rate at that time is. The idea behind forward
contracts is that as the exchange rate is locked on both sides, both, the creditor and the lender do not have
to worry about fluctuations in the income and expenditure respectively.
Currency Futures
Currency futures are the same as forward contracts and are just for locking in an exchange rate for a pre-
set date of the transaction in the future. The advantage that currency futures have over currency forwards
is that as these are exchange traded, counter-party risk is eliminated. It also helps that currency futures are
more transparent in their pricing and are more easily available to all market participants. Know more on
futures trading.

Currency Swaps
These exchange rate transactions are real time transactions where one thing is just exchanged for another.
These swaps can also be used for hedging interest rate risks where two parties can exchange their fixed
and floating interest rate obligations with each other.

Currency Options
Currency options are financial instruments that give the owner the right but not the obligation to buy or
sell a specific foreign currency at a predetermined exchange rate. While a call option gives the holder the
right to buy the currency at an agreed price, a put option gives him the right to sell it at an agreed price,
irrespective of an unfavorable market price for the same. Know more on options trading.
These were some of the traditional methods for hedging currency risks. Here are some of the newer
strategies to achieve the same, that some companies like the UBS have brought forward for their
customers. Know more on currency hedging for importers.

Cancellable Forward
Some companies allow for cancellable forwards which are instruments that allow a regular currency cash
flow to be hedged on a monthly rolling basis. The instrument requires no payment of premiums and gives
better rates than those in the forward markets, but on the downside, the cash flows are not guaranteed and
are always less favorable than the spot rates.

Range Reset Forward

This is an instrument based on market expectations and is perfect for you if you think that the exchange
rates between two currencies is going to be within a certain band or range. As long as the exchange rates
remain in your predetermined range, you can effectively hedge currency risk by getting a favorable
forward rate. This is a perfect plan to help protect against a worst case scenario and also does not require
premiums. The flip side is that, if the prices fall below or shoot above your expected range, you may have
to shell out a price that is actually more unfavorable that even the worst case scenario.
Risk Reversal
This hedging currency strategy provides protection against losses in the complete sense of the word.
Unfortunately, this strategy limits participation in a favorable market with a cap and sometimes has rates
that are worse than the actual forward rates being quoted in the market. Once again, the benefits are that
you do not have to pay premiums, you are completely protected against the worst possible scenario and
you have the option to restructure your risk reversal at anytime.

Kick Into Forward

Last but not the least, this hedging currency strategy, gives hedging protection for downside risk and
conditional participation for upside price movements. While you benefit up to the kick-in level with no
initial premiums, full hedging cover and restructuring facility, you are in for a worse off rate if the kick-in
level is actually reached.

While much more can be written on the subject of foreign currency hedging, I think I shall stop this
'hedging currency risk' article here. Hedging is a very important step in financial planning and if done
well, serves well in the long run financial management.
Long Hedge
 The long hedge is a hedging strategy used by manufacturers and producers to lock in the price of a
product or commodity to be purchased some time in the future. Hence, the long hedge is also known as
input hedge.
 The long hedge involves taking up a long futures position. Should the underlying commodity price rise,
the gain in the value of the long futures position will be able to offset the increase in purchasing costs.
 Long Hedge Example
 In May, a flour manufacturer has just inked a contract to supply flour to a supermarket in September. Let's
assume that the total amount of wheat needed to produce the flour is 50000 bushels. Based on the agreed
selling price for the flour, the flour maker calculated that he must purchase wheat at $7.00/bu or less in
order to breakeven.
 At that time, wheat is going for $6.60 per bushel at the local elevator while September Wheat futures are
trading at $6.70 per bushel, and the flour maker wishes to lock in this purchase price. To do this, he enters
a long hedge by buying some September Wheat futures.
 With each Wheat futures contract covering 5000 bushels, he will need to buy 10 futures contracts to
hedge his projected 50000 bushels requirement.
 In August, the manufacturing process begins and the flour maker need to purchase his wheat supply from
the local elevator. However, the price of wheat have since gone up and at the local elevator, the price has
 risen to $7.20 per bushel. Correspondingly, prices of September Wheat futures have also risen and are
now trading at $7.27 per bushel.

Loss in Cash Market...

 Since his breakeven cost is $7.00/bu but he has to purchase wheat at $7.20/bu, he will lose $0.20/bu. At
50000 bushels, he will lose $10000 in the cash market.
 So for all his efforts, the flour maker might have ended up with a loss of $10000.

... Is Offset by Gain in Futures Market.

 Fortunately, he had hedge his input with a long position in September Wheat futures which have since
gained in value.
 Value of September Wheat futures purchased in May = $6.70 x 5000 bushels x 10 contracts = $335000
 Value of September Wheat futures sold in August = $7.27 x 5000 bushels x 10 contracts = $363500
 Net Gain in Futures Market = $363500 - $335000 = $28500
 Overall profit = Gain in Futures Market - Loss in Cash Market = $28500 - $10000 = $18500
 Hence, with the long hedge in place, the flour maker can still manage to make a profit of $18500 despite
rising Wheat prices.
 Basis Risk
 The long hedge is not perfect. In the above example, while cash prices have risen by $0.60/bu, futures
prices have only gone up by $0.57/bu and so the long futures position have only managed to offset 95% of
the rise in price. This is due to the strengthening of the basis.
Cash September Basis
Futures
May $6.60 $6.70 -$0.10
August $7.20 $7.27 -$0.07
Net -$0.60/bu +$0.57/bu +$0.03 (Stengthened by
$0.03)
 The basis tracks the relationship between the cash market and the futures market. Hedgers should pay
attention to the basis when deciding when to enter the hedge as they are said to have taken up a position in
the basis once a hedge is in place. See basis.

 Long Hedge Example with Futures

 Joe Parcell and Vern Pierce, Department of Agricultural Economics
 This guide details the placing of an input (long) hedge in the futures market for use in reducing the price
risk associated with buying an input used in your business. For example, a swine producer knows he/she
will be buying a pen of feeder-pigs two months from now. To feed the pen of weaner pigs, the producer
will need 5,000 bushels of corn (one full contract at the Chicago Board of Trade) during the next four
months to use in the production of feed. Corn is an input into the production of swine. Currently, the local
cash corn price is at $2.35/bushel, and the producer believes that the corn price may rise during the next
few months exposing him to the risk of higher prices. The producer calculates his cost of production and
knows that the $2.35/bushel will allow for profit potential. What can the producer do? The producer can
purchase the grain now; however, he/she will have to pay storage on the grain for the next few months,
increasing the price above $2.40/bushel. Alternatively, the producer could enter the futures market and
offset any potential loss in value (increase in price) with a gain in the futures market.

How do I Place a Hedge?

 Placing a hedge can be a simple process. First, knowing your cost of production helps you know when to
place a hedge. To place a hedge, you need to contact a broker with whom you place your order. Most
large communities have a broker who will take your order for a set fee (as is common when placing any
futures/options market order). The broker can be helpful in informing you on how to appropriately place
and exit your hedging position. The broker has a stake, i.e., commission, in making sure your experience
 with hedging is a good one. After you have placed the order with the broker, the broker will contact a
brokerage house at the commodity exchange and relay the order. On the trading floor of the trading
commission, open out-cry is used in matching market supply and demand forces. If you want to place a
long hedge, there will likely be either someone wanting to place a short hedge or a speculator willing to
offset your risk. The speculator is using a process known as arbitrage.

What Can Happen With the Long Futures Hedge?

 Any of seven scenarios can arise between the cash and futures price. The only scenario not discussed
below is that of the cash and futures prices not changing while the hedge is placed. In this scenario, the
producer purchases the input for the same price as when the hedge was placed. The costs of hedging
would then simply be commissions. The other scenarios are discussed below. Because the cash and
futures markets typically trend in the same direction over time the scenario of the cash and futures moving
in opposite directions is not discussed. One final note, even though a loss may be shown from taking a
futures position, the final price must be compared to purchasing the grain in advance, and paying storage
costs.

A. Cash and Futures Price both Increases

 1. Cash Price Increases Faster than the Futures Price (Basis Strengthens)
 Table 1 is used to describe the actions you might take as a hedger and the outcomes of those actions in
placing an input hedge in which the cash price increases by more than the futures price during the hedging
period. In this scenario basis is said to strengthen. Following from table 1, suppose today you could
purchase corn for $2.35/bushel and the relevant futures contract is trading for $2.50/bushel (basis is $0.15
under). Knowing that you will need the corn at a later date and you want to protect against a price
increase, you take a long position in the futures market at this time. Over the next few months the local
cash price increases to $2.60/bushel and the futures price increases to $2.65/bushel. At this time you
decide you need to purchase corn for the production of feed. You purchase the corn in the cash market for
$2.60/bushel and sell back your futures position for $2.65/bushel. Therefore, the cost of the grain to you is
$2.60/bushel less $0.15/bushel gained from the futures position plus any commission costs (a typical
commission might be $25 for entry into the futures and $25 for exit, $50/round-turn or @ $0.01/bushel).
Instead of paying $2.60/bushel, you pay $2.46/bushel. The net price you receive is exactly equal to the
original cash price plus the basis gain or loss plus commission.

2. Futures Price Increases Faster than the Cash Price (Basis Weakens)
 Table 2 is used to describe the actions you might take as a hedger and the outcomes of those actions in
placing an input hedge in which the futures price increases by more than the cash price during the hedging
period. In this scenario basis is said to weaken. Following from table 2, suppose today you could purchase
 corn for $2.35/bushel and the relevant futures contract is trading for $2.50/bushel (basis is $0.15 under).
Knowing that you will need the corn at a later date and you want to protect against a price increase, you
take a long position in the futures market at this time. Over next few months the local cash price increases
to $2.45/bushel and the futures contract price increases to $2.65/bushel. At this time you decide you need
to purchase corn for the production of feed. You purchase the corn in the cash market for $2.45/bushel
and sell back your futures position for $2.65/bushel. Therefore, the cost of the grain to you is $2.45/bushel
less $0.15/bushel gained from the futures position plus any commission (assume $.01/bushel). Instead of
paying $2.45/bushel you pay $2.31/bushel. Again, the net price you receive is exactly equal to the original
cash price plus the basis gain or loss plus commissions.

3. Futures Price Increases at the same rate as the Cash Price (no change in basis)
 Under this scenario the price you pay is exactly equal to the price you would have paid earlier with the
exception of commissions ($0.01/bushel). Following with the first two examples, there is no basis change
in this example and the net price is simply equal to the original cash price plus commissions

B. Cash and Futures Price both Decrease

 1. Cash Price Decreases Faster than the Futures Price (Basis Weakens)
 Table 3 is used to describe the actions you might take as a hedger and the outcomes of those actions in
placing an input hedge in which the cash price decreases by more than the futures price during the
hedging period. In this scenario basis is said to weaken. Following from table 3, suppose today you could
purchase corn for $2.35/bushel and the relevant futures contract is trading for $2.50/bushel (basis is $0.15
under). Knowing that you will need the corn at a later date and you want to protect against a price
increase, you take a long position in the futures market at this time. Over the next few months the local
cash price decreases to $2.20/bushel and the futures contract price decreases to $2.40/bushel. At this time
you decide you need to purchase corn for the production of feed. You purchase the corn in the cash
market for $2.20/bushel and sell back your futures position for $2.40/bushel. Therefore, the cost of the
grain to you is $2.20/bushel plus $0.10/bushel lost from the futures position plus commission costs
($0.01/bushel). Instead of paying $2.20/bushel you pay $2.31/bushel.

2. Futures Price Decreases Faster than the Cash Price (Basis Strengthens)
 Table 4 is used to describe the actions you might take as a hedger and the outcomes of those actions in
placing an input hedge in which the futures price decreases by more than the cash price during the
hedging period. In this scenario basis is said to strengthen. Following from table 4, suppose today you
could purchase corn for $2.35/bushel and the relevant futures contract is trading for $2.50/bushel (basis is
$0.15 under). Knowing that you will need the corn at a later date and you want to protect against a price
 increase, you take a long position in the futures market at this time. Over next few months the local cash
price decreases to $2.20/bushel and the futures contract price decreases to $2.25/bushel. At this time you
decide you need to purchase corn for the production of feed. You purchase the corn in the cash market for
$2.20/bushel and sell back your futures position for $2.25/bushel. Therefore, the cost of the grain to you is
$2.20/bushel plus $0.25/bushel lost from the futures position plus any commission costs (assume
$0.01/bushel). Instead of paying $2.20/bushel you pay $2.46/bushel because basis strengthened.
 3. Futures Price Decreases at the same rate as the Cash Price
 Under this scenario the price you pay is exactly equal to the price you would have paid earlier with the
exception of commissions ($0.01/bushel). The next price you receive is equal to the original cash price
plus the commission since there was no change in the basis.

Table 1. Long Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Increase (basis strengths)
Corn Example - Cash Price Increases faster than Futures Price
Cash Futures Basis
Buy corn contract at
Today: $2.35/bu. -$0.15/bu.(under)
$2.50/bu.
Later: buy corn in local Sell corn contract back at
-$0.05/bu.(under)
market at $2.60/bu. $2.65/bu.
Results Cash paid price $2.60/bu. $0.10 basis loss
 Plus Commission $0.01/bu
Less futures gain $0.15/bu.
----------------------------
Net buying price $2.46/bu.

Table 2. Long Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Increase (basis weakens)
Corn Example - Futures Price Increases faster than Cash Price
Cash Futures Basis
Buy corn contract at
Today: $2.35/bu. -$0.15/bu.(under)
$2.50/bu.
Later: buy corn in local Sell corn contract back at
-$0.20/bu.(under)
market at $2.45/bu. $2.65/bu.
Cash paid price $2.45/bu.
Plus Commission $0.01/bu
Results Less futures gain $0.15/bu. -$0.05 basis gain
---------------------------
Net buying price $2.31/bu.

Table 3. Long Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Decreases (basis weakens)
 Corn Example - Cash Price Decreases faster than Futures
Cash Futures Basis
Buy corn contract at -$0.15/bu.
Today: $2.35/bu.
$2.50/bu (under)
Later: buy corn in
Sell corn contract back at
local market at -$0.20/bu.(under)
$2.40/bu.
$2.20/bu.
Cash paid price $2.20/bu.
Plus Commission $0.01/bu
Results Plus futures loss $0.10/bu. -$0.05 basis gain
-----------------------------
Net buying price $2.31/bu.

Table 4. Long Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Decrease (basis strengths)
Corn Example - Futures Price Decreases faster than Cash Price
Cash Futures Basis
Buy corn contract at -$0.15/bu.
Today: $2.35/bu.
$2.50/bu (under)
Later: buy corn in local Sell corn contract back at
-$0.05/bu.(under)
market at $2.20/bu. $2.25/bu.
 Cash paid price $2.20/bu.
Plus Commission
$0.01/bu
Plus futures loss
Results $0.10 basis loss
$0.25/bu.
-----------------------------
Net buying price
$2.46/bu.

 Short Hedge Example with Futures

 Joe Parcell and Vern Pierce, Department of Agricultural Economics
 This guide details the placing of an output (short) hedge in the futures market for use in reducing the price
risk associated with selling an output used in your business. For example, a cattle producer knows he/she
will be selling a pen of cattle two months from now. The producer knows that by selling live cattle for
over $62/cwt. he/she can insure a satisfactory profit. Currently, the local live cattle price is $64/cwt., and
the producer believes that the fed price may drop during the next few months. By knowing the cost of
production of these animals, the producer knows that the $64/cwt. will allow for a satisfactory profit.
What can the producer do? The producer cannot sell the cattle now because the cattle are too light;
 however, the producer could enter the futures market and off-set any loss in value (decrease in price) with
a gain in the futures market.

How do I Place a Hedge?

 Placing a hedge can be a simple process. First, knowing your cost of production helps you know when to
place a hedge. To place a hedge, you need to contact a broker with whom you place an order. Most large
communities have a broker who will take your order for a set fee (as is common when placing any futures
market order). The broker can be helpful in informing you on how to appropriately place and exit your
hedging position. The broker has a stake, i.e., commission, in making sure your experience with hedging
using futures is a good one. After you have placed the order with the broker, the broker will contact a
brokerage house at the commodity exchange and relay the order. On the trading floor of the trading
commission open out-call is used in matching market supply and demand forces. If you want to place a
short hedge, there will always be either someone wanting to place a long hedge or a speculator willing to
off-set your risk. This process is known as arbitrage and is discussed in more detail in an accompanying
risk management guide in this series.

What Can Happen With the Short Futures Hedge?

 Any of seven scenarios can arise between the cash and futures price. The only scenario not discussed
below is that of the cash and futures prices not changing while the hedge is placed. In this scenario, the
producer sells the output for the same price as when the hedge was placed. The costs of hedging would
then simply be commissions. The other scenarios are discussed below. Because the cash and futures
markets typically trend in the same direction over time the scenario of the cash and futures moving in
opposite directions is not discussed.

A. Cash and Futures Price both Decrease

 1. Cash Price Decreases Faster than the Futures Price (Basis Weakens)
 Table 1 is used to describe the actions you might take as a hedger and the outcomes of those actions in
placing an output hedge in which the cash price decreases by more than the futures price during the
hedging period. In this scenario basis is said to weaken. Following from table 1, suppose today you could
sell live cattle for $64/cwt. and the relevant futures contract is trading for $65/cwt. (basis is $1.00 under).
Knowing that you will sell cattle at a later date and you want to protect against a price decrease, you take
a short position in the futures market at this time. Over the next few months the local cash price decreases
to $60/cwt. and the futures price decreases to $63/cwt. At this time you decide the cattle need to go to
market. You sell cattle in the cash market for $60/cwt. and buy back your futures position for $63/cwt.
Therefore, the revenue from selling cattle is $60/cwt. plus $2/cwt. gain from the futures position less any
 commission costs (a typical commission might be $30 for entry into the futures and $30 for exit,
$60/round-turn or @ $0.15/cwt.). Instead of selling for $60/cwt. you sell for $61.85/cwt. The net price
you receive is exactly equal to the original cash price plus the basis gain or loss less commission.

2. Futures Price Decreases Faster than the Cash Price (Basis Strengthens)
 Table 2 is used to describe the actions you might take as a hedger and the outcomes of those actions in
placing an output hedge in which the futures price decreases by more than the cash price during the
hedging period. In this scenario basis is said to strengthen. Following from table 2, suppose today you
could sell live cattle for $64/cwt. and the relevant futures contract is trading for $65/cwt. (basis is $1.00
under). Knowing that you will sell cattle at a later date and you want to protect against a price decrease,
you take a short position in the futures market at this time. Over the next few months the local cash price
decreases to $60/cwt. and the futures price decreases to $60/cwt. At this time you decide the cattle need to
go to market. You sell cattle in the cash market for $60/cwt. and buy back your futures position for
$60/cwt. Therefore, the revenue from selling cattle is $60/cwt. plus $5/cwt. gain from the futures position
less any commission costs Instead of selling for $60/cwt. you sell for $64.85/cwt. Again the net price you
receive is exactly equal to the original cash price plus the basis gain or loss less commission.

3. Futures Price Decreases at the same rate as the Cash Price

 Under this scenario the price you pay is exactly equal to the price you would have paid earlier with the
exception of commissions ($0.15/cwt). Following with the first two examples, there is no basis change
here and the net price is simply equal to the original cash price less commission.

B. Cash and Futures Price both Increases

 1. Cash Price Increases Faster than the Futures Price (Basis Weakens)
 Table 3 is used to describe the actions you might take as a hedger would take and the outcomes of those
actions in placing an output hedge in which the cash price increases by more than the futures price during
the hedging period. In this scenario basis is said to strengthen. Following from table 3, suppose today you
could sell live cattle for $64/cwt. and the relevant futures contract is trading for $65/cwt. (basis is $1.00
under). Knowing that you will sell cattle at a later date and you want to protect against a price decrease,
you take a short position in the futures market at this time. Over the next few months the local cash price
increases to $67/cwt. and the futures price increases to $66/cwt. At this time you decide the cattle need to
go to market. You sell cattle in the cash market for $67/cwt. and buy back your futures position for
$66/cwt. Therefore, the revenue from selling cattle is $67/cwt. less $1/cwt. lost from the futures position
less any commission. Instead of selling for $67/cwt. you sell for $65.85/cwt.

 2. Futures Price Increases Faster than the Cash Price (Basis Weakness)
 Table 4 is used to describe the actions a hedger would take and the outcomes of those actions in placing
an output hedge in which the futures price increased by more than the cash price during the hedging
period. In this scenario basis is said to weaken. Following from table 4, suppose today you could sell live
cattle for $64/cwt. and the relevant futures contract is trading for $65/cwt. (basis is $1.00 under).
Knowing that you will sell cattle at a later date and you want to protect against a price decrease, you take
a short position in the futures market at this time. Over the next few months the local cash price increases
to $67/cwt. and the futures price increases to $69/cwt. At this time you decide the cattle need to go to
market. You sell cattle in the cash market for $67/cwt. and buy back your futures position for $69/cwt.
Therefore, the revenue from selling cattle is $67/cwt. less $4/cwt. lost from the futures position less any
commission. Instead of selling for $67/cwt. you sell for $62.85/cwt.
 3. Futures Price Increases at the same rate as the Cash Price
 Under this scenario the price you pay is exactly equal to the price you would have paid earlier with the
exception of commissions ($0.15/cwt). Again, there is no change in the basis in this example so the net
price received is exactly equal to the original price less commissions.

Table 1. Short Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Decreases (Basis Weakens)
Live Cattle Example - Cash Price Decreases faster than Futures
Cash Futures Basis
Today: $64/cwt. Sell live cattle contract at -$1.00/cwt.
 $65/cwt. (under)
Later: sell cattle in
Buy live cattle contract back -$3.00/cwt.
local market at
at $63/cwt. (under)
$60/cwt.
Selling price          $60.00/cwt.
Less Commission  $0.15/cwt.
-$2.00 basis
Results Plus futures gain    $2.00/cwt.
loss
----------------------------
Net selling price    $61.85/cwt.

Table 2. Short Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Decrease (Basis Strengths)
Live Cattle Example - Futures Price Decreases faster than Cash
Price
Cash Futures Basis
Sell live cattle contract at -$1.00/cwt.
Today: $64/cwt.
$65/cwt. (under)
Later: sell cattle in Buy live cattle contract back -$0.00/cwt.
local market at at $60/cwt.
$60/cwt.
Selling price          $60.00/cwt.
Less Commission  $0.15/cwt.
$1.00 basis
Results Plus futures gain    $5.00/cwt
gain
---------------------------
Net selling price    $64.85/cwt.

Table 3. Short Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Increase (Basis Strengths)
Live Cattle Example - Cash Price Increases faster than Futures
Price
Cash Futures Basis
Sell live cattle contract at -$1.00/cwt.
Today: $64/cwt.
$65/cwt. (under)
Later: sell cattle in
Buy live cattle contract back $1.00/cwt.
local market at
at $66/cwt. (over)
$67/cwt.
Results Selling price          $67.00/cwt. $2.00 basis
gain
Less Commission  $0.15/cwt.
Less futures loss    $1.00/cwt.
 -----------------------------
Net selling price    $65.85/cwt.

Table 4. Short Hedge Example using Futures with Cash Price Increase (Basis Weakens)
Live Cattle Example - Futures Price Increases faster than Cash
Price
Cash Futures Basis
Sell live cattle contract at -$1.00/cwt.
Today: $64/cwt.
$65/cwt. (under)
Later: sell cattle in
Buy live cattle contract back -$2.00/cwt.
local market at
at $69/cwt. (under)
$67/cwt.
Selling price          $67.00/cwt.
Less Commission  $0.15/cwt.
-$1.00 basis
Results Less futures gain    $4.00/cwt.
loss
-----------------------------
Net selling price    $62.85/cwt.

Arbitrage
Defn: It means locking in a profit by simultaneously entering into transactions in two or more markets where
there is price differential of the same underlying.
In simple terms one can understand by an example of a commodity selling in one market at price x and the
same commodity selling in another market at price x + y. Now this y, is the difference between the two markets
is the arbitrage available to the trader. The trade is carried simultaneously at both the markets so theoretically
there is no risk. (This arbitrage should not be confused with the word arbitration, as arbitration is referred to
solving of dispute between two or more parties. )
The person who conducts and takes advantage of arbitrage in stocks, commodities, interest rate bonds,
derivative products, Forex is known as an arbitrageur. 

An arbitrage opportunity exists between different markets because there are different kind of players in the
market, some might be speculators, others jobbers, some market-markets, and some might be arbitrageurs.
In India, there is a good amount of Arbitrage opportunities between NCDEX, MCX in commodities.
In the Indian Stock Market, there are a good amount of Arbitrage opportunities between NSE, Cash and Future
market and BSE, Cash and Future market.
Some Characteristics:
•If the relation between forward prices and futures price differs, it gives rise to arbitrage opportunities.
•If there is price differential between two exchanges, it gives rise to arbitrage opportunities
􀁑 We can categorize arbitrage in the real world into three groups:
• Pure arbitrage, where, in fact, you risk nothing and earn more than the riskless rate.
• Near arbitrage, where you have assets that have identical or almost identical cash flows, trading at different
prices, but there is no guarantee that the prices will converge and there exist significant constraints on the
investors forcing convergence.
• Speculative arbitrage, which may not really be arbitrage in the first place. Here, investors take advantage of
what they see as mispriced and similar (though not identical) assets, buying the cheaper one and selling the
more Expensive one.

ARBITRAGE Explained

USDINR Spot = INR 44.325 1 Month Forward Premium= 3 paisa

1 month USDINR Outright Forward Rate = INR 44.355
1 month USDINR Currency Futures = INR 44.4625
BUY OUTRIGHT FORWARDS ANDSELL FUTURES.
NETGAIN = (44.4625 –44.355) INR = 10.75 PS ARBITRAGE
Profit per contract = 1000*0.1075 = 107.50 INR
(Example assumes that both outright and futures contracts are coterminous.
BENEFITS
No requirement of an underlying to trade in currency futures.
•No requirement of a non-fund based limit
•MTM Settlement
•Minimal cost of trading –Fees for corporate clients and individual clients tailored to suit their requirements–
(Govt. /Exchange taxes, charges, levies extra, as applicable)

To see how spot and futures currency prices are related, note that holding the foreign currency enables the
investor to earn the risk-free interest rate (Rf) prevailing in that country while the domestic currency earn the
domestic riskfree rate (Rd). Since investors can buy currency at spot rates and assuming that there are no
restrictions on investing at the riskfree rate, we can derive the relationship between the spot and futures prices.
􀁑 Interest rate parity relates the differential between futures and spot prices to interest rates in the domestic and
foreign market.

Futures Price = (1+ Rd)

Spot Price (1+ Rf)
Example using the formula:

Assume that the one-year interest rate in the United States is 5% and the one-year interest rate in Germany is
4%. Furthermore, assume that the spot exchange rate is $0.65 per Deutsche Mark.
􀁑 The one-year futures price, based upon interest rate parity, should be as follows:

Futures Price = (1.05) = $0.6525

$ 0.65 (1.04)