Sustainable Value Creation For All Stakeholders: June 11, 2018
Sustainable Value Creation For All Stakeholders: June 11, 2018
Sustainable Value Creation For All Stakeholders: June 11, 2018
www.SustainableSempra.com
June 11, 2018
Disclaimer
THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR DISCUSSION AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED HEREIN REPRESENT THE OPINIONS OF ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION AND ITS
AFFILIATES (COLLECTIVELY, “ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT”) AND BLUESCAPE RESOURCES COMPANY LLC AND ITS AFFILIATES (COLLECTIVELY, “BLUESCAPE”). ALL OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED
HEREIN IS BASED ON PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION WITH RESPECT TO SEMPRA ENERGY (THE “COMPANY”), INCLUDING FILINGS MADE BY THE COMPANY WITH THE SECURITIES AND
EXCHANGE COMMISSION (“SEC”), AND OTHER SOURCES. IT DOES NOT CONSIDER IN ANY MANNER THE SPECIFIC INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE, FINANCIAL SITUATION, SUITABILITY, OR THE
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HEREIN.
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▫2▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Executive Summary
www.SustainableSempra.com
ELLIOTT®
▫3▫
About Elliott and Bluescape
Elliott and Bluescape have conducted exhaustive research on Sempra, including working with a
team of industry-leading advisers and experts, to evaluate and develop our recommendations
ELLIOTT
Investment firm founded in 1977 with over $35B of assets Private investment firm founded in 2007 focused on value-
under management oriented investments in the upstream oil and gas, power and
Multi-strategy firm active in debt, equities, commodities, utility industries
currencies and various other asset classes across a range of John Wilder, Founder and Executive Chairman of Bluescape,
industries served as CEO and Chairman of TXU Corp. from 2004-07,
Strong track record investing in the power, utility and broader achieving an annual TSR of 65% and ranking as the fifth best
energy sector and working with companies to create long-term performing company in the S&P 500 during that period
fundamental stakeholder value
We are pleased to share our suggestions for creating a better Sempra for all key stakeholders
▫4▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Why Are We Here?
Elliott and Bluescape collectively own a 4.9% economic interest in Sempra valued at more than $1.3 billion1
We believe Sempra can achieve $11-16 billion of value creation from an appropriately conducted business review
(4) (3)
(8) (7)
(17)
(26) (18)
(34)
(39) (31)
1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year
Sempra TSR Relative to S&P 500 Utilities Index Sempra TSR Relative to S&P 500
(5)
(6)
(9)
(28)
(18) (35)
(21) (38)
(42) (42)
1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year
Source: Bloomberg as of 6/7/18.
Note: Charts represent peer median relative cumulative total shareholder return.
1. Infrastructure utility peers include: NEE, D, DTE, AGR, CNP and NI.
2. Proxy peers from Sempra 2018 proxy statement.
20.4x
18.2x
17.6x
17.4x
16.4x
16.3x
16.3x
16.2x
16.0x
15.8x
15.6x
15.2x
15.0x
14.8x
14.6x
14.2x
14.1x
13.3x
NWN OGS NJR ATO SWX SR AGR NEE LNT NI AEE CMS WEC ED XEL PNW DTE AEP ES CNP D SRE
MISS
15.8x
$5.75
$5.65
MISS
$5.55
MISS
$5.42
$5.35
13.3x
$5.25
$5.21
MISS
$5.05
$4.71
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gas Utility Electric Utility Sempra
Guidance
Peer P/E Peer P/E P/E
Source: Bloomberg as of 6/7/18, SEC filings, Sempra 2018 proxy statement and company presentations.
1. Comparison of reported adjusted EPS vs. midpoint of five-year plan EPS target from four years prior.
2. 2020 P/E multiple. See Appendix slide 44 for gas and electric utility peer groups.
▫8▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Current Sempra Does Not Fit Together
Sempra’s portfolio approach is suboptimal for its stakeholders. Each business has a
different cost of capital and a different risk-return profile
Long-term Long-term
Regulated electric Regulated, Long-term
Risk Profile Regulated electric Regulated gas contracted, contracted,
& gas currency risk contracted
construction risk currency risk
Geography US – Texas US – California US – California US – Gulf Coast Mexico Chile and Peru US
▫ 10 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Sempra’s Potential
With improved oversight and from the work of a newly formed Strategic Review Committee,
we believe that Sempra can create $11-16 billion of value
$91
Strategic Review
Portfolio Review: SRC to conduct “no stone unturned”
review to consider all pathways to maximize value – ($26)
including tax-free spin-offs and tax-optimized business $35
divestitures
Operational Review: SRC to simultaneously review
operations to enhance safety, reliability and service at
Sempra’s US utilities, with no net increase in customer $40
rates, and maximize LNG development opportunities
Announce Sustainable Sempra Plan by Year-End LNG & Midstream Non-Core $7B Holdco Pro Forma US Utility High- Buyback Achievable 6-12
Spin Business Debt Paydown Utilities 1 Performance Accretion 2 Month Price
Divestitures Strategy Target
Note: Assumes share count of 279m including forward share sales. Figures shown are midpoints of each valuation range. See slide 33 for additional detail.
1. Net of ~1x EBITDA of proposed holdco debt and $1.7B of convertible preferred stock.
2. Accretion from $2-3B share buyback.
▫ 11 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
A Better Sempra for all Key Stakeholders
Becoming more focused and well-run will benefit all key stakeholders
in each of Sempra’s businesses
Customers: Improved reliability and customer service due to renewed operational focus;
increased investment in infrastructure with no net increase in utility customer rates
Employees: More opportunity due to increased growth and investment potential; better
and safer work environment from new high-performance culture
Regulators: Eliminates exogenous risks from businesses outside each regulator’s direct
purview; improved safety and reliability standards on an affordable / cost-efficient basis;
enhanced transparency and accountability
Shareholders: Improved management accountability and alignment, transparency,
operating performance, financial results and optimized, enhanced value realization with
greater overall certainty
▫ 12 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Recent Elliott and Bluescape Collaborations
Enhanced Oversight: Addition of highly qualified directors Enhanced Oversight: Active involvement of John Wilder on
and formation of a Business Review Committee of the Board FirstEnergy’s newly formed Restructuring Working Group
within 1 month
Portfolio Focus: Landmark $2.5B investment led by Elliott
Independent Review: An objective review of NRG’s strategy and Bluescape to repair FE’s balance sheet and enable its
and operations which culminated in the announcement of a exit from merchant generation and refocus on its collection
highly successful Transformation Plan within 4 months of pristine, regulated utility companies within 3 months
NRG Total Shareholder Return FE vs. XLU Since Elliott & Bluescape Investment
ELLIOTT®
▫ 14 ▫
As Sempra Gets Bigger, Underperformance Deepens
Sempra’s enterprise value has expanded by nearly $17 billion over the last three years,
while its TSR has underperformed infrastructure peers by 39%
Sempra TSR Relative to Infrastructure Utility Peers1 and Sempra Enterprise Value
0 $60
(5)
$57B
Sempra TSR Relative to Infrastructure Peers
(10)
Sempra relative Sempra $55
TSR (LHS) enterprise
(20) $50
(25)
(30) $45
(35)
(39%)
(40) $40
(45)
(50) $35
J-15 S-15 D-15 M-16 J-16 S-16 D-16 M-17 J-17 S-17 D-17 M-18
The market is telling Sempra that the time is NOW for a comprehensive strategic review
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Sempra Today
“SRE remains one of the more complex and diversified companies in our universe...”
Goldman Sachs, June 6, 2018
Regulated gas & electric utility serving San Diego $8.5B rate base
county 1.4m electric, 0.9m gas Map of Sempra’s Businesses
100% SRE owned customers
However, Sempra has failed to articulate a logical strategy around its various businesses.
In reality, no coherent strategy actually exists
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How Did Sempra Get SO BIG?
Sempra’s growth strategy relies on siphoning earnings and creditworthiness from its core California
utilities and deploying that capital into various unrelated businesses with poor returns and results
▫ 18 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Purported Operational Synergies Lack Credibility
“We expect the addition of Oncor, coupled with our There is virtually no integration or physical
existing presence in the natural gas market, to position
“Geographic” us well to be a leading player in the Gulf Coast.”
interconnectedness between Sempra’s businesses
Executive Chairman Debra Reed, October 30, 2017 Geographic proximity is not a synergy in and of itself
▫ 19 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Disparate Businesses Result in Operational Issues
Sempra’s structure has resulted in serious execution missteps, which creates meaningful risks
for all key stakeholders and results in lack of confidence in leadership
Incident What Happened Key Lessons
Cameron LNG commercial operation dates have been delayed Large unregulated construction projects
numerous times for over 12 months cumulatively due to require proactive management
construction-related issues
Cameron LNG In 2016, Sempra management was not aware
Management was ambiguous around timing of plant commissioning of any delay until notified by the contractor
Construction Delays
and further timing slippages and was ill-equipped to respond
By comparison, several of Cheniere’s LNG facilities have been
completed months ahead of schedule
October 2015 natural gas leak at the SoCalGas Aliso Canyon facility was Safety and reliability must be the number one
the worst natural gas leak in US history in terms of environmental priority for any utility management team
Aliso Canyon impact
Gas leak is an example of “eye off the ball”
Gas Leak Gas leak released over 100,000 metric tons of methane into the mismanagement of core operations
atmosphere, with a carbon footprint worse than the Deepwater
Horizon oil spill1
Cumulative impairments on the Rockies Express pipeline cost Despite the long-term contracted nature of
shareholders approximately $600 million2 assets, midstream infrastructure investment
Rockies Express Project was plagued at the outset, with construction cost ballooning requires specialized experience and foresight
Pipeline Impairment from $4.4B to $6.8B, an over 50% increase
Subsequent changes to re-contracting prospects led Sempra to write
down and ultimately dispose of its 25% interest
Sempra lost virtually its entire investment in two Argentine regulated Businesses in foreign jurisdictions have
Argentina utilities, costing shareholders over $200 million completely different risk profiles compared to
Impairment
regulated US utilities
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Consistent EPS Misses Demonstrate Lack of Grasp and Focus
“The bear case on SRE is that they never make their five-year forecast, so why believe them now?...It is true that SRE will have fallen short of
the majority of their five-year plans for EPS growth aspirations laid out in ‘12/‘13/‘14/‘15.”
Evercore ISI, April 5, 2018
2011–2017 Segment EPS Contribution 5-Year Plan EPS Guidance vs. Actual Achieved1
SDG&E SoCalGas
Other Businesses Corporate 6.1%
CAGR 5-Year Plan Midpoint Actual $6.25
$2.28 $2.55
California $2.11 $2.39 $5.75
utilities are $1.78 $1.89 $5.65
$1.96 $5.55
growing $5.42
EPS 5.7% $5.35
$1.32 $1.67 $1.66
CAGR $5.25 $5.21 11%
$1.19 miss
$1.36 $1.58 $5.05
$1.17 8%
“Everything $4.71 miss 12%
$1.97 $1.87 miss
Else,” is $1.91
$1.44 $1.61 $1.53 $1.77
Flat/Down 10%
(1.3)% miss
($0.22) CAGR
($0.52) ($0.67) ($0.69) ($0.61) ($0.46) ($0.55)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Guidance
Midpoint
Source: SEC filings, company presentations.
1. Comparison of reported adjusted EPS vs. midpoint of five-year plan EPS target from four years prior.
Sempra has not been able to sustainably drive earnings growth at non-California businesses
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Repeated Downward Earnings Revisions
Sempra’s consensus earnings estimates have consistently seen significant downward
revisions, perpetuating share price underperformance and low valuation
$7.00
“Our updated 2019 estimates come in below consensus, and we
expect 2019 guidance at SRE’s analyst day (June 28th) to
2019: (12%) disappoint.”
2018: (13%) “The bear case on SRE continues to be skepticism regarding their
ability to achieve their L-T EPS growth aspirations, pointing to SRE’s
2017: (8%) historic underperformance vs. their growth aspirations.”
$5.00
2016: (8%) Evercore ISI, May 9, 2018
▫ 22 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Sempra’s Board Structure is Problematic
Sempra’s Board would greatly benefit from new fresh perspectives and real industry experience
Longest tenured directors dominate key positions, notably the Nominating & Governance and Compensation
Committees
Sempra’s Lead Director has 17 years of tenure and the Chairman of the Nominating & Governance Committee has 24
years of tenure
Only three of Sempra’s 12 independent directors have utility industry experience
Four of Sempra’s 12 independent directors have no beneficial ownership in Company stock at all (0 common shares or
options)
In aggregate, Sempra’s independent directors own a total of 52,200 shares, or 0.02% of the current shares outstanding
Only one of Sempra’s independent directors has ever purchased shares on the open market (and on only one occasion)
Since 2010, Sempra’s independent directors have sold nearly $20 million of stock on the open market
The power structure of the current Exec. Directors Age Tenure Industry? Board Roles Nom & Gov. Comp.
Debra Reed 61 40* Yes Chairman, Former CEO
Board is skewed heavily towards the Jeff Martin 56 14* Yes CEO
longest tenured directors Indp. Directors Age Tenure Industry? Board Roles Nom & Gov. Comp.
Director 1 62 24 No Chair of Governance
In particular, the compensation Director 2 74 20 No
Director 3 73 17 Yes Lead Director, Chair of Comp
committee has failed to properly
Director 4 73 10 No Chair of Health & Safety
construct management’s incentive Director 5 69 7 No
scheme Director 6 66 5 No Chair of Audit
Director 7 66 5 Yes
The Board today lacks key industry and Director 8 72 5 No
Director 9 55 5 Yes
capital allocation know-how and Director 10 56 1 No * Tenure for Debra Reed and Jeff Martin refers to tenure at Sempra,
credibility Director 11 48 1 No not the Board. Ms. Reed has been a director since April 2010 and Mr.
Director 12 62 1 No Martin joined the board in May 2018.
Source: Sempra 2018 proxy statement.
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Governance Concerns Made Tangible in Incentive Structure
Sempra’s incentive structure encourages GET BIG strategy and rewards mediocrity
-4% 0%
1%
3%
-10%
This plan allows for low
return investments and
acquisitions so long as it Previous Year Actual Target Actual
grows absolute earnings
dollars (not per share)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$60 80
$50
$51
60 60
$46
$46
$43
$43
$43
$40
$42
$42
49 50
48
$40
$39
$39
$38
44
42 42
$35
$34
40 40 39 40
CEO Pay in MM
$34
38 39
$30
$31
$31
35
$30
$30
$28
TSR
$28
30 30
$26
$20
$21
20
$20
19 18
$19
$17
14
13 12
$10 10
7 5
5 5
0
$0
-8
-11 (10)
-12
-$10 (20)
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Creating a Better Sempra
www.SustainableSempra.com
ELLIOTT®
▫ 26 ▫
Analyst: “You got high quality businesses in each thing that you do…but they are kind
of disparate businesses. You could arguably say that they could be put together in
different standalone businesses and the like.”
“
I hope that over time [Sempra’s businesses] grow so huge
that it makes sense to have that type of separation. “
Executive Chairman Debra Reed, September 14, 2017
Source: Fireside chat with Wolfe Research, September 14, 2017. ▫ 27 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Sustainable Value Creation
▫ 28 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Reset Oversight
We have identified six new, highly qualified directors with diverse, highly relevant skill-sets
and look forward to sharing their credentials with Sempra
▫ 29 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Strategic Review
A rigorous review of Sempra’s portfolio and operations should lead to tangible, sustainable
enhancements for all key stakeholders
Employ back-to-basics strategy with increased Incremental rate base investment opportunity of
executive management focus on core utility $2.5-5.0 billion expected with no net increase in
operations rather than unregulated growth customer rates
Transition SDG&E and SoCalGas into high- Ample investment opportunities in pipeline
performance organizations safety, weather hardening, grid modernization,
green energy initiatives and cybersecurity
Target top-decile metrics in relevant industry
benchmarks including customer satisfaction,
safety and reliability, environmental compliance
and cost efficiency
Business Divestitures:
66.4% interest in IEnova
83.6% interest in Luz del Sur, 100% interest in Chilquinta $9-10B $33-37
1.6 GW net capacity of contracted wind and solar generation across the US
Holdco Debt Reduction Assumes $7.2B of holdco debt paydown from sale proceeds ($7B) ($26)
High-Performance US Utilities:
100% interest in SDG&E and SoCalGas; 80% interest in Oncor $29-30B $105-109
High-Performance Strategy NPV of incremental $2.5-5.0B rate base investment over 3-5 years $1-2B $3-7
$5.4B face value of remaining holdco debt or ~1x EBITDA1, capitalized at
Pro Forma Holdco Debt consistent multiple of after-tax interest expense ($5B) ($16)
$1.7B face value of convertible preferred deducted dollar-for-dollar
Accretion from $2-3B buyback using proceeds from business divestitures after
Share Buyback Accretion2 holdco debt paydown $1-2B $2-5
▫ 33 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Which Sempra Do You Choose?
After initiating an objective portfolio and operational review, Sempra can change its trajectory and
become a more valuable and more sustainable company
Sustainable
Status Quo Improvement
Sempra
$11-16B Value
Target Equity Value1 $28B $39-44B
Creation
▫ 34 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Operational Review Should Identify Long-Term Improvements
The below upside factors, which are not included in our analysis,
offer Sempra shareholders even further substantial value-creation opportunities over time
▫ 35 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Next Steps
We appreciate stakeholders’ consideration of our perspectives and invite Sempra’s
key stakeholders and analysts to share their thoughts with us
Elliott and Bluescape formally ask for the following initial next steps:
We hope that we can work expeditiously with Sempra to initiate the fundamental changes needed
▫ 36 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Contact Information
Investors Media
[email protected] [email protected]
Toll-Free: +1-877-259-6290 +1-212-478-2017
▫ 37 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
Appendix
www.SustainableSempra.com
ELLIOTT®
▫ 38 ▫
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Regulated US Utilities
Sempra’s US utilities have strong growth rates and should command premium valuations as
a standalone US utility holding company
Customers / Service 3.5 million electric 1.4 million electric, 0.9 million gas 6 million gas
Territory Dallas metro and northwest Texas San Diego County and southern Southern California including the Los
Orange County Angeles metro
Rate Base / Growth $11B / 7% $8.5B rate base (~50% CPUC electric, $5.5B / 7%1
~10% CPUC gas, ~40% FERC)
6% rate base growth1
Other Commentary More than four attempts to acquire Small geographical service territory Largest natural gas distribution utility
Oncor over the past three years and best-in-class systems limit in the US
exposure to wildfire risk
Indicative
Comparable Peers
Source: SEC filings, SDG&E 2019 General Rate Case filing, Sempra earnings calls.
1. Based on Sempra 2017 Analyst Day presentation 2017-21 projected rate base growth.
▫ 39 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SDG&E’s small
geographic service
area, which is ~7%
Oncor - PUCT, 44% the size of SoCalEd
~83% of aggregate rate and PG&E, further
base assets are either: limits wildfire
TX assets not subject to exposure
inverse condemnation SDG&E is known to
Gas assets with no
have best-in-class
wildfire exposure
FERC assets with history technology, including
SoCalGas - CPUC Gas, 22% cameras to monitor
of cost recovery
systems and the
SDG&E - CPUC Gas, 3%
ability to quickly de-
energize electric
SDG&E - FERC, 14% infrastructure
Source: SEC filings, CPUC website, SDG&E and SoCalGas 2019 General Rate Case filings.
Only a small fraction of Sempra’s US utility business is exposed to California wildfire risk
▫ 40 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Other
Trains 1-3 Expansion Trains 4 & 5
Projects
3 LNG trains 2 LNG trains 2 LNG trains Mid-scale 2.5 Mtpa LNG 1.5-2.0 Bcfd Permian-to-
facility in the near-term Katy Pipeline; JV with
13.9 Mtpa nameplate 9 Mtpa brownfield 13.5 Mtpa greenfield
Boardwalk
capacity capacity capacity 12 Mtpa LNG facility
longer-term
50.2% SRE ownership 50.2% SRE ownership 3,000-acre prime land
position along gulf coast Pursuant to development
20-year take-or-pay Fully permitted by FERC
agreement with IEnova
agreements with A-rated and DOE FERC and DOE non-FTA
counterparties (who are applications filed Permitted by Mexican
Louisiana Gulf Coast
also project owners) for regulators
Texas Gulf Coast
full nameplate capacity
Mexico West Coast / Baja
No commodity exposure
84% complete with
projected 2019
completion for all 3 trains
Louisiana Gulf Coast
Contracted 20-year
Opportunity to develop over 25 Mtpa1 of cost-effective liquefaction capacity
cash flow annuity
1. Estimated capacity attributable to Sempra; assumes retention of 50% interest in ECA liquefaction pursuant to a development agreement with IEnova.
▫ 41 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Description Premier Mexico energy infrastructure Largest electric utility in Third largest electric 1.6 GW of net wind and
company primarily focused on natural Peru utility in Chile solar generation across
gas transportation and distribution Primarily transmission Primarily transmission the US
Significant growth opportunities in and distribution and distribution Fully contracted assets
renewables and liquids infrastructure Serves 1.1 million Serves 0.7 million with 17 year weighted
Long-term contracted dollar-based customers customers average remaining
assets contract life
Public Market $6.1B equity value $1.8B equity value N/A N/A
Valuation $8.8B TEV $2.4B TEV
▫ 42 ▫ www.SustainableSempra.com
VALUATION
0.0-0.5x discount to median gas utility peer group P/E multiples on year-forward basis (see Appendix slide 44)
Gas utility peer group: ATO, OGS, NJR, SWX, SR, NWN
0.5-1.0x premium to median electric utility peer group P/E multiples on year-forward basis (see Appendix slide 44)
Electric utility peer group: AEP, ED, XEL, WEC, ES, AEE, CMS, LNT, PNW
Cameron LNG Trains 1-3: 13.4-14.4x EV/EBITDA applied to midpoint of run-rate EBITDA guidance range of $812.5m;
corresponds to $1,600-$1,700/tonne capacity
o Consistent with Cheniere’s (CQP and LNG) current observed market valuation
Gas storage: $10-12m/Bcf capacity; Cameron Interstate Pipeline: 10-11x EV/EBITDA
LNG & Midstream 65-70% discount to unrisked NPV of ~$8.5B for prospective LNG & Midstream development projects
Development Projects See comparison to other LNG development companies on Appendix slide 48
Sale at 10-25% change-of-control premium to estimated standalone value calculated using aggregate IPSA P/E multiple
Sale of 1.6GW of wind and solar assets at $1,500-1,650/kW change-of-control value less $631m non-controlling interest
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VALUATION
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VALUATION
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VALUATION
FID Nameplate
13.9 Mtpa 22.5 Mtpa 36.0 Mtpa
Capacity
Expected
2019 2019 2021
Completion
Contract Terms 100% 20-year take-or-pay ~90% 20-year take-or-pay ~85% long-term take-or-pay
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VALUATION
Public Market TEV / Mtpa of Contracted LNG Businesses Implied 100% TEV of Cameron Trains 1-3 (13.9 Mtpa)
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VALUATION
Public market value of LNG development companies Comparison of LNG development projects
NextDecade / Rio
27 Mtpa Greenfield Filed
Grande
Tellurian NextDecade
Two of Sempra’s projects are at brownfield sites
and have received regulatory permits
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