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    Forecasting: DEFINITION - Forecasting Is The Prediction of Future Happenings, Based On The Precise Analysis of

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    Mandeep Kaur
    The document discusses forecasting in hotels. It defines forecasting as predicting future occurrences based on data analysis. It describes short-term forecasts of 3-7 days and longer term forecasts of 30 days to a year. Accurate forecasting helps hotels plan staffing levels, inventory, and asset allocation. The document outlines the key data and formulas used to forecast daily room availability, including historical occupancy, reservations, no-shows, overstays, and understays. It explains the benefits of forecasting for revenue management and operations planning.

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    Forecasting: DEFINITION - Forecasting Is The Prediction of Future Happenings, Based On The Precise Analysis of

    Uploaded by

    Mandeep Kaur
    72 views5 pages
    The document discusses forecasting in hotels. It defines forecasting as predicting future occurrences based on data analysis. It describes short-term forecasts of 3-7 days and longer term forecasts of 30 days to a year. Accurate forecasting helps hotels plan staffing levels, inventory, and asset allocation. The document outlines the key data and formulas used to forecast daily room availability, including historical occupancy, reservations, no-shows, overstays, and understays. It explains the benefits of forecasting for revenue management and operations planning.

    Original Description:

    In these notes, I have explained the topic forecasting in a simple manner

    Original Title

    Basics of forecasting

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    The document discusses forecasting in hotels. It defines forecasting as predicting future occurrences based on data analysis. It describes short-term forecasts of 3-7 days and longer term forecasts of 30 days to a year. Accurate forecasting helps hotels plan staffing levels, inventory, and asset allocation. The document outlines the key data and formulas used to forecast daily room availability, including historical occupancy, reservations, no-shows, overstays, and understays. It explains the benefits of forecasting for revenue management and operations planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    72 views5 pages

    Forecasting: DEFINITION - Forecasting Is The Prediction of Future Happenings, Based On The Precise Analysis of

    Uploaded by

    Mandeep Kaur
    The document discusses forecasting in hotels. It defines forecasting as predicting future occurrences based on data analysis. It describes short-term forecasts of 3-7 days and longer term forecasts of 30 days to a year. Accurate forecasting helps hotels plan staffing levels, inventory, and asset allocation. The document outlines the key data and formulas used to forecast daily room availability, including historical occupancy, reservations, no-shows, overstays, and understays. It explains the benefits of forecasting for revenue management and operations planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 5

    FORECASTING

    DEFINITION - Forecasting is the prediction of future happenings , based on the precise analysis of
    data

    SHORT-TERM FORECASTS

    Since short-term forecasts are the most accurate, the time frames forecasted most often are:
     3 Day
     7 Day
     10 Day
     14 Day

    LONGER TERM FORECASTS

    Longer term forecasts are run:

     30 day (or comparable cutoff date)


     90 day
     12 Month Rolling-Annual Budget/Marketing Plan

    FORECASTING METHODOLOGY -
    These forecasts are important to the rest of the hotel because they help plan for:

     Asset allocation
     Staffing levels
     Inventory availability

    Forecasting Room Availability:

    The following information is required to prepare an accurate room availability report.

     Room Inventory
     Previously Night Occupancy
     Departures
     Reservations
     Under Stay
     Over Stay
     Cancellation
     No-Shows
     Early arrivals
    Previously Night Occupancy: - The total numbers of rooms were occupied by the guest on the previous
    night.
    Departures: - A departure is a guest who is scheduled to check out on the current date.
    Reservations: - Reservations have been received for the current date.
    Under Stay: - Guest who indicated their intention to remain inn the hotel but checked out before their
    scheduled departure date is called under stay.
    Over Stay: - Guest who remains in the hotel beyond the scheduled departure date is called over stay.
    Cancellation: - The average rate of a typical hotel is about 2% of reservation.
    No-Shows: - Besides cancellation there is a small percentage of people who make reservations and never
    check – in. The average number show rate is about 5% of reservations.
    Early arrivals: - There is also a possibility that a guest will check in prior to the estimated arrival date.

    FORECASTING DATA
    The process of forecasting room availability generally relies on historical
    occupies data as well as business already committed. Historical data is used to take some of the guess
    work out of forecasting.
    To facilitate forecasting the following daily occupy data should be collected.

    Room Availability Formula :-

    Total Number of Guestrooms


    - OOO Rooms
    - Stayovrers
    - Reservations
    + Reservations X No-show Percentage
    + Understays
    - Overstays
    ________________________
    = Number of Rooms Available for Sale

    Example :-

    150 Guestrooms
    - 5 OOO Rooms
    - 45 Stayovrers
    - 50Reservations
    + 10 No-show Percentage
    + 5 Understays
    - 20 Overstays
    ________________________
    = 40 Rooms Available for Sale

    NO- SHOW
     Reservation made by guests but does not materialize
     Results in loss of revenue if not guaranteed
     Front office must chase any unconfirmed booking whether groups or FITs
     Must stick by a specified time to wait for the guest otherwise go ahead to release it
     Impose financial liabilities as incase of guaranteed reservation
     No shows tend to increase along with the demand
     Look for last minute replacement bookings in places like airlines , local tourist offices
     Overbooking depending on the individual hotels no show factor

    OVERBOOKING
    It means accepting more room bookings than the hotel has room for it . This is done to end up with right
    number of guests and most optimum revenue.
    Overbooking is done to translate loss of revenue that some will be from no shows or early departure or
    understays into profit.

    BENEFITS OF FORECASTING
     It helps the Reservation Manager to project volume of business
     The volume of reservations will help the Front office manager to plan
     Staffing in each department
     Inventory requirement in each department
     Allocation of resources to serve the guest better
     Maintenance & replacement requirement
     Special arrangement for Groups , VIP’s , CIP’s
     The reservation Manager can take selective overbooking , based on the forecast
     The forecast data provides information of lean days . The sales department can make a
    re-course plan
     The forecast data will reveal sold out dates . The reservation agent can be advised not to
    take reservations for these dates .

    DATA REQUIRED FOR FORECASTING


    1. The profile of the target market to which the hotel is catering
    2. Events scheduled in the vicinity of area during forecasted period
    3. Percentage of no-shows
    4. Overstay percentage
    5. Under-stay percentage
    6. Turn-down statistics
    7. Cancellation statistics
    8. Wash out percentages
    9. A Precise knowledge of Room status of competitor's in that area

    Useful forecasting data


    PERCENTAGE OF NO-SHOWS

    No-show percentage = Total Number of no-shows in a specific duration X 100

    Total Number of reservation's in that specific duration

    PERCENTAGE OF WALK-INS

    Walk-in percentage = Total Number of walk-ins in a specific duration X 100

    Total Number of arrivals in that specific duration

    PERCENTAGE OF OVERSTAY

    Overstay percentage = Total Number of overstays in a specific duration X 100

    Total Number of check-outs in that specific duration

    Useful forecasting data – Contd..

    PERCENTAGE OF STAYOVER

    Stayover = Total Number of stayovers in a specific duration X 100

    percentage Total Number of check-outs in that specific duration

    PERCENTAGE OF UNDERSTAY

    Understay = Total Number of under-stay in a specific duration X 100

    percentage Total Number of check-outs in that specific duration

    HOUSE-COUNT

    House Count = House count of previous day brought forward

    + today’s arrival

    – today’s departure

    Front Office Forecast


    Front Office Forecast

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