The Machiavellians
The Machiavellians
The Machiavellians
MACHIAVELLIANS
DEFENDERS OF
FREEDOM
JAMES BURNHAM
NEWYORK
5. Ma hiavelli's Reputation 74
c
Part 111: MoscA: THE THEORY OF THE RULING CLASS
i
6 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
mankind should` be governed by a single "empire" or state;
second, that this sovereignty is properly exercised by the Holy
Roman Emperor (conceived as the continuator of the ancient
Roman Emperor) ; and third, that the temporal, the political
authority exercised by the Emperor is independent of the author-
ity of the Pope and the Church (as Dante puts it, "depends
immediately on God").
To establish the first point, that there should be a single unified
world-state,* Dante begins by stating certain "first principles,"
which, he believes, are the necessary foundation for all political
reasoning. The ultimate goal for all mankind is the full develop-
ment of man's potentialities, which means in the last analysis
eternal salvation and the vision of God. The aim of temporal
civilization is to provide the conditions for achieving this ulti-
mate goal, chief among which is universal peace. A variety of
subtle arguments, distinctions and analogies shows that this con-
dition, and in general the organization of the collective life of
mankind in such a way as to permit the reaching of the ultimate
goal, can only be effectively carried out through "unity of direc-
tion." God, moreover, is Supreme Unity, and, it being His inten-
tion that mankind should resemble Him as much as possible,
this can be done only when mankind is also unified under a
single ruler. The motion of the heavens is regulated by the single
uniform motion of the outermost sphere (the primum mobile),
and man should strive, too, to imitate the heavens. Only a unified
political administration can check tyrannical governments and
thus give men freedom, can guard the freedom of others by itself
being wholly free, can guarantee concord and harmony, which
always presuppose unity. These arguments, which prove that
there should be a single unified political administration for all
• The "world" that Dante had in mind was of course Europe and the littoral
of the Mediterranean; but no such res tr iction is made in his argument, and his
reasoning applies as well, or ill, to the entire world as to the world he
knew.
DANTE: POLITICS AS WISH 7
mankind, led by a single ruler, are historically substantiated by the
fact that the Incarnation of Christ took place under the tem poral
rule of the Emperor Augustus.
In thi second Book, Dante considers and accepts the claim of
the Ronan people to the seat of the universal empire. It is justi-
f i ed by their nobility derived from their descent from the Trojan
Aeneas,:and by numerous miracles which God worked to give
witness Ito the claim. The Roman pudic spirit showed that they
were airing at the right, and thus must have had right on their
side. Furthermore, the legitimacy of their claim was proved by
the fact that the Romans had the effective faculty of ruling, the
power t rule, whereas all other peoples failed in effective rule,
as noted in the Scriptures and other sacred writings. Finally, the
sacrifice of Christ would not have been valid in erasing the stain
of original sin from all mankind unless Pilate, as the representa-
tive of Tome, had had valid authority to pronounce judicial sen-
tence u on all mankind.
Book tII discusses the ever-recurring problem of the relations
between Church and State, the question, as Dante's time saw it,
whether }the temporal, the political ruler had independent author-
ity and sovereignty, or was subordinate to the spiritual authority
of God's Vicar on earth, the Pope. The question must be judged,
Dante afgues, on the fundamental principle that whatever is
repugnait to the intention of nature is contrary to the Will of
God. The truth has been obscured by a factious spirit, and by a
failure t i recognize the primary authority of the Bible, the de-
crees of the councils and the writings of the Fathers. The argu-
ment for the subordination of the empire (that is, the state) to
the Church on the basis of the analogy of the subordinate rela
tion of t le moon, representing the empire, to the sun, repre-
senting t e Church, is without weight because the analogy is
false, ancj, even if it were true, does not really establish the de-
pendence; Nor are various often quoted instances in the Bible
8 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
any more conclusive. Christ gave Peter, representing the Church, the
power to loose and bind, but expressly limited this power to the
things of Heaven, not of the earth.
The donation by which the Emperor Constantine, after his
conversion and cure of leprosy, granted authority over the
Empire
to Pope Sylvester, was invalid, since it was contrary to nature for
him to make the grant or for the Pope to receive it.' The argu-
ment that there cannot be two supreme individuals of the same
kind, and, since the Pope cannot be regarded as inferior, he must
be superior to the temporal ruler, does not hold. The spiritual
and temporal authorities are of two different kinds, and the in-
dividual supreme in one order might well be inferior in the other.
Positively indicating the independence of the temporal rule from
the spiritual are such facts as that Christ, Paul, and even the
angel who appeared to Paul acknowledged the temporal author-
ity of the emperor. Finally, it is in harmonious accord with the
two-fold nature of man, both body and spirit, that God should
have established, directly dependent only on Himself, two su-
preme authorities, one temporal and one spiritual. The temporal
ruler, then, is in no way subordinate, in temporal things, to the
spiritual ruler, though it may be granted that he should properly
give that reverence to the spiritual ruler which is due him as the
representative of eternal life and immortal felicity.
formal
Let us consider this outline of what may be called the
argument of De Monarchia.
In the first place,'we may note that the ultimate goal (eternal
salvation in Heaven) by which Dante holds that all political
* The apologists for Papal supremacy made a strong point of the famed "dona tion
of Constantine," and Dante was plainly troubled by it. The donation was proved
a forgery by Lorenzo Valla in the 15th century.
DANTE: POLITICS AS WISH
questiohs must be judged is in the strictest sense impossible, since
there is no such place as Heaven.
Second, the lesser goals derived from the ultimate goal-the
development of the full potentialities of all men, universal peace,
and a Tingle unified world-state-though they are perhaps not
inconc e i vable, are nevertheless altogether utopian and materially
impossible.
Thir', the many arguments that Dante uses in favor of his
positio are, from a purely formal point of view, both good and
bad, m stly bad; but, from the point of view of actual political
conditions in the actual world of space and time and history, they
are alnjost without exception completely irrelevant. They consist
of pointless metaphysical and logical distinctions, distorted anal-
ogies, garbled historical references, appeals to miracles and arbi-
trarily lelected authorities. In the task of giving us information
about `-ow men behave, about the nature and laws of political
life, about what steps may be taken in practice to achieve concrete
political and social goals, they advance us not a single step.
Takijg the treatise at face value and judging it as a study of
politics, it is worthless, totally worthless. With this, it might seem
that nc more could, or ought to be, said about De Monarchia.
Such a conclusion, however, would show a thorough failure to
understand the nature of a work of this kind. So far we have
been cnsidering only the formal meaning of the treatise. But
this fo rmal meaning, the meaning which is explicitly stated, is
the leas important aspect of De Monarchia. The formal meaning,
besides what it explicitly states when taken at face value, serves
to express, in an indirect and disguised manner, what may be
called the real meaning of the essay.
By " eal meaning" I refer to the meaning not in terms of the
f i ctional world of religion, metaphysics, miracles, and pseudo-
history (which is the world of the formal meaning of De
Monar jhia), but in terms of the actual world of space,
time, and
10 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
events. To understand the real meaning, we cannot take the
words at face value nor confine our attention to what they ex-
plicitly state; we must fit them into the specific context of Dante's
times and his own life. It is characteristic of De Monarchia, and
of all similar treatises, that there should be this divorce between
formal and real meanings, that the formal meaning should not
explicitly state but only indirectly express, and to one or another
extent hide and distort, the real meaning. The real meaning is
thereby rendered irresponsible, since it is not subject to open and
deliberate intellectual control; but the real meaning is nonetheless
there
What, then, is the real meaning of De Monarchia?
*I am arbitrarily defining the distinction between "formal meaning" and
"real meaning" in the sense I have indicated, and I shall continue so to use it.
The distinction has nothing to do with the psychological question whether Dante
(or any other writer who may be in question) consciously attempts to deceive
his audience by hiding the real meaning behind the facade of the formal mean-
ing. The disguise is there, independently of any i ntention; and deception, in-
cluding self-deception, does often occur. It is possible, of course, as we shall see
further, that the formal meaning and the real meaning should be identical; and
it is an object of science to see that, so far as possible, they are.
2. The Real Meaningof DEMONARCHIA
FRO9 THE 12th to the 14th centuries, many of the chief dis-
putes allnd wars in feudal Europe focused around the prolonged
struggle between Guelphs and Ghibellines. The exact origin of
these two great international factions is not altogether clear. They
f i rst cane into prominence in the year 1125, in a conflict over
the succession to the Emperor Henry V, a member of the
Hohenstaufen family. His son, Frederic, supported by the great
nobles,'claimed the Empire, which was not, however, a hereditary
office. e was opposed by the Pope and by many of the lesser
nobles, P. whose candidate was Lothair, the Duke of Saxony. Lo-
thair i jas elected; but upon his death in I137 was succeeded by
and ai
i
nis, are left irresponsible. In Dante's case the aims were
also vic ?us and reactionary. This need not be the case, but,
when
this me od is used, they are always irresponsible. Even if the
real aim are such as to contribute to human welfare, no proof
or evide ce for this is offered. Proof and evidence, so far as they
are presnt at all, remain at the formal level. The real aims are
acceptedI even if right, for the wrong reasons. The high-minded
words of the formal meaning serve only to arouse passion and
prejudicg and sentimentality in favor of the disguised real aims.
This rpethod, whose intellectual consequence is merely to con
fuse and hide, can teach us nothing of the truth, can in no way
help us to solve the problems of our political life. In the hands of
the powerful and their spokesmen, however, used by demagogues
or hypocrites or simply the self-deluded, this method is well de-
signed, And the best, to deceive us, and to lead us by easy routes
to the scrifice of our own interests and dignity in the service o
the mighty.
The ciief historical effects of the French Revolution were to
break u the system of the older French monarchy, with its
privileged financiers and courtiers, to remove a number of feudal
restrictions on capitalist methods of production, and to put the
French Japita lists into a position of greater social power. It might
well hJe been argued, prior to the Revolution, that these goals
promises to contribute to the welfare of the French people and
perhaps of mankind. Evidence for and against this expectation
might hive been assembled. However, this was not the procedure
generally followed by the ideologists of the Revolution. They
based eir treatises not upon an examination of the facts, but
upon supposedly fundamental and really quite mythical notions
of a primitive "state of nature," the "natural. goodness of man,"'
the "social contract," and similar nonsense. They sloganized, a s
26 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
the aims of the Revolution, Liberty, Equality and Fraternity, and,
the utopian kingdom of the Goddess Reason. Naturally, the
workers and peasants were disappointed by the outcome, after
so much blood; but, oddly enough, most of France seemed to feel
not many years later that the aims of the Revolution were well
enough realized in the military dictatorship of Bonaparte.
No doubt a unification of Europe under Hitler is a bad thing
for the European peoples and the world. But this is no more
proved by complicated deductions to show the derivation of Nazi
thought from Hegelian dialectic and the philosophic poetry of
Nietzsche than is the contradictory by Hitler's own mystical
pseudo-biology. "Freedom from want" is very nearly as meaning.
less, in terms of real politics, as "eternal salvation"-men are want-
ing beings; they are freed from want only by death. Whatever the
book or article or speech on political matters that we turn to-
those of a journalist like Pierre van Paassen, a demagogue like
Hitler, a professor like Max Lerner, a chairman of a sociology de-
partment like Pitirim Sorokin, a revolutionist like Lenin, a
trapped idealist like Henry Wallace, a bull-dozing rhetorician like
Churchill, a preacher out of a church like Norman Thomas or
one in like Bishop Manning, the Pope or the ministers of the
Mikado-in the case of them all we find that, though there may
be incidental passages which increase our fund of real infor-
mation, the integrating method and the whole conception of
politics is precisely that of Dante. Gods, whether of Progress or
the Old Testament, ghosts of saintly, or revolutionary, ancestors,
abstracted moral imperatives, ideals cut wholly off from mere
earth and mankind, utopias beckoning from the marshes of their
never-never-land-these, and not the facts of social life together
with probable generalizations based on those facts, exercise the
f i nal controls over arguments and conclusions. Political analysis
becomes, like other dreams, the expression of human wish or the
'admission of practical failure.
Part II
M A CHIAVELLI: THE SCIENCE
OF POWER
I. Machiavelli's Practical Goal
Machi
avelli's chief immediate practical goal is the national uni
f i cation l of Italy. There are other practical aims in his writings,'
some ofI them more general, and I shall discuss them later on.,
To make Italy a nation, a unified state, is, however, central and
constant
Comp red to Dante's glittering ideals, this goal is doubtless
humble, almost sordid. In any case, it is specific and meaningful.
We all know what a national state, in the modern sense, means,,
Machiaelli, writing in the first quarter of the 16th century, and
his contemporaries, with the example of France and England and
Spain fresh before them, knew what the goal meant. Moreover,
the goal was neither wild nor fantastic; it was accomplished else-
where ij Europe during those times, and there was no reason to,
think it too improbable of accomplishment in Italy.
In th case of Dante we had to distinguish carefully between
the fort1nal, presumed goals, and the hidden real goals. In Ma-
chiavelli , as in all scientific writing, there is no such distinction.
Formal land real are one, open and explicit. The last chapter of
The Prance is plainly entitled, "An Exhortation to Deliver Italy
32 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
from the Barbarians [that is, foreigners]." In it Machiavelli calls
for a champion to rally Italy for the task of unification:
"Having weighed, therefore, all that is said before, and consid-
ered seriously with myself whether in this juncture of affairs in
Italy, the times were disposed for the advancement of a new
Prince, and whether there was competent matter that could give
occasion to a virtuous and wise person to introduce such a form
as would bring reputation to him, and benefit to all his subjects;
it seems to me that at this present so many things concur to the
exaltation of a new Prince, that I do not know any time that has
been more proper than this. . . . 'Tis manifest how prone and
ready she is to follow the Banner that any man will take up; nor
is it at present to be discerned where she can repose her hopes
with more probability, than in your illustrious Family [of the
Medici], which by its own courage and interest, and the favor of
God and the Church, of which it is now chief [Leo X of the
Medici family was Pope when Machiavelli was writing this pas-
sage], may be induced to make itself Head in her redemption:
which will be no hard matter to be effected, if you lay before you
the lives and actions of the persons above named; who though
they were rare, and wonderful, were yet but men, and not accom-
modated with so fair circumstances as you. Their enterprise was
not more just, nor easy, nor God Almighty more their friend
than yours. You have Justice on your side; for that War is just
which is necessary, and 'tis piety to fight, where no hope is left
in anything else. The people are universally disposed, and where
the disposition is so great, the opposition can be but small, espe-
cially you taking your rules from those persons which I have
proposed to you for a Model . . ." (The Prince, Chap. 26.)
Machiavelli's careful treatise on The Art of War and the
lengthy discussions of war in his Discourses on Livy have an
ever-present aim of showing Italians how they can learn to fight
in such a way as to beat back the forces of France and the Empire
MACHIAVELLI: SCIENCEOFPOWER 33
and Spain, and thereby control their own destiny as an Italian
nation. "he History of Florence finds in the stories of the past:
a traditi nal spirit that can be linked with arms in the struggle.
The examples of ancients and moderns, joined in the Discourses
on Livy, show the direction along the political road.
There: is nothing ambiguous about this goal of making Italy a
nation. Anyone, reading Machiavelli, could accept it or reject it,
and, doing so, would know exactly what he was accepting or
rejecting. There are no dreams or ghosts in Machiavelli. He lives
and wriies in the dayl
I
36 THE- MACHIAVELLIANS
strictions which had kept up the quality of Florentine woolens
or Venetian glass or Genoese weapons were now, in order to
maintain the traditional privileges of their members, preventing
an influx of new workers and new capital. The state power of
the cities, and their armed forces, were not now strong enough to
police transportation routes, guard the sea lanes, put down brig-
andage and the vagaries of barons who did not realize that their
world was ending. Uniform systems of taxation and stable,
standardized money for large areas were now required. For all
such tasks only the modern nation-state could adequately
provide.
Italy, then, in Machiavelli's day, faced a sharp, imperative choice, a
choice that had already been pointed by the examples of Spain and
especially of France and England. Italy could remain under the
existing political structure. If so, if it continued in the old ways,
it was sure to retrogress, to decline economically and cul turally, to
sink into the backyard of Europe. Or Italy could follow the example
of France and England, unify itself, organize as a nation; and
thereby continue in the front rank, be, perhaps, the chief state of
the modern world.
This was the problem, and this problem Machiavelli, in its
political aspects above all, fully understood. Machiavelli made his
decision, explained it, advocated it. Unfortunately for Italy, his
advice was not accepted. Italy paid her historical penalty. More
than three centuries later she tried to catch up with Machiavelli; but
by then, as we know today well enough, it was too late. A new
style of barbarian, with new techniques, has once again swept over
her from the North.
I
46 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
MOSC1�` REJECTS the many theories which. have tried to apply the
Dar inian theory of evolution directly to social life. He finds,
however a social tendency that is indirectly analogous to the process of
bi logical evolution:
"The truggle for existence has been confused with the struggle
for pre- minence, which is really a constant phenomenon that
arises in tall human societies, from the most highly civilized down to
such s have barely issued from savagery...
"If we consider . . . the inner ferment that goes on within the
body of P every society, we see at once that the struggle for pre
eminent! is far more conspicuous there than the struggle for
existencf. Competition between individuals of every social unit is
focused upon higher position, wealth, authority, control of the
means a d instruments that enable a person to direct many human
activities, many human wills, as he sees fit. The losers, who are of
course to majority in that sort of struggle, are not devoured,
destroy or even kept from reproducing their kind, as is basically
characteristic of the struggle for life. They merely enjoy fewer
materia satisfactions and, especially, less freedom and inde-
penden e. On the whole, indeed, in civilized societies, far from
being g adually eliminated by a process of natural selection so-,
called, the lower classes are more prolific than the hher, anig d
even inthe lower classes every individual in the long run gets a loaf
of read and a mate, though the bread be more or less dark and 4 d-
earned and the mate more or less unattractive or uii desirable. i rp.
29-30.)
95
96 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
The outcome of this "struggle for pre-eminence" is the decision
who shall be, or continue to be, members of the ruling class.
What makes for success in the struggle? or, in other words,
what qualities must be possessed by individuals in order that they
may secure or maintain membership in the ruling class? In
answering a question like this, it is above all necessary to avoid
the merely formal. Spokesmen for various ruling classes have
numerous self-satisfying explanations of how superior morality or
intelligence or blood or racial inheritance confer membership. But
Mosca, like all Machiavellians, looks beyond the verbal expla-
nations to the relevant facts.
He finds that the possession of certain qualities is useful in all
societies for gaining admittance to the ruling class, or for staying
within it. Deep wisdom, altruism, readiness at self-sacrifice, are
not among these qualities, but, on the contrary, are usually hin-
drances.
"To rise in the social scale, even in calm and normal times,
the prime requisite, beyond any question, is a capacity for hard
work; but the requisite next in importance is ambition, a firm re-
solve to get on in the world, to outstrip one's fellows. Now those
traits hardly go with extreme sensitiveness or, to be quite frank,
with `goodness' either. For `goodness' cannot remain indifferent
to the hurts of those who must be thrust behind if one is to step
ahead of them... . If one is to govern men, more useful than a
sense of justice-and much more useful than altruism, or even
than extent of knowledge or broadness of view-are
perspicacity,
a. ready intuition of individual and mass psychology, strength of
will and, especially, confidence in oneself. With good reason did
Machiavelli put into the mouth of Cosimo dei Medici the much
quoted remark, that states are not ruled with prayerbooks." (Pp.
449-450.)
The best means of all for entering the ruling class is to be born
into it--though, it may be observed, inheritance alone will not
MOScA: THEORYOFRULINGCLASS 97
suffice to k7ep a family permanently among the rulers. Like Ma-
chiavelli here also, Mosca attributes not a little to "fortune."
"A certain amount of work is almost always necessary to
achieve su cess-work that corresponds to a real and actual serv-
ice to society. But work always has to be reinforced to a certain
extent by ` bility,' that is to say, by the art of winning recognition.
And of co4irse a little of what is commonly called `luck' will not
come amiss-those unforeseeable circumstances which help or
seriously f arm a man, especially at certain moments. One might
add that in all places at all times the best luck, or the worst, is
often to 11e born the child of one's father and one's mother:'
(P. 456.)
These dualities-a capacity for hard wor k, ambition (Machia-
velli's virtu) I a certain callousness, luck in birth and circumstances
-are tho:e that help toward membership in any ruling class at
any time �n history. In addition, however, there is another group
of qualities that are variable, dependent upon the particular so-
ciety in question. "Members of a ruling minority regularly have
some attibute, real or apparent, which is highly esteemed and
very infi ential in the society in which they live." (P. 53.) To
mention simple examples: in a society which lives primarily by
f i shing, the expert fisherman has an advantage; the skilled war
rior, in predominantly military society; the able priest, in a
profoundly religious group; and so on. Considered as keys to rule,
such qualities as these are variable; if the conditions of life change,
they cha ge, for when religion declines, the priest is no longer
so impot?tant, or when fishing changes to agriculture, the fisher man
na�urally drops in the social scale. Thus, changes in the, general
onditions of life are correlated with far-reaching changes' in the
composition of the ruling class.
The arious sections of the ruling class express or represent
social forces, which are con-
or contrl or lead what Mosca calls
tinually I varying in number and importance. By "social force",
98 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
Mosca means any human activity which has significant social and
political influence. In primitive societies, the chief forces are ordi-
narily war and religion. "As civilization grows, the number of
the moral and material influences which are capable of
becoming
social forces increases. For example, property in money, as the
fruit of industry and commerce, comes into being alongside of
real property. Education progresses. Occupations based on scien-
tific knowledge gain in importance." (Pp. 144-5.) All of these-
war, religion, land, labor, money, education, science, technological
skill-can function as social forces if a society is organized in
terms of them.
From this point of view, it may be seen that the relation of a
ruling class to the society which it rules need not be at all arbi-
trary; in fact, in the long run cannot be. A given ruling class
rules over a given society precisely because it is able to control
the major social forces that are active within that society. If a
social force-religion, let us say-declines in importance, then the
section of the ruling class whose position was dependent upon
control of religion likewise, over a period, declines. If the entire
ruling class had been based primarily upon religion, then the
entire ruling class would change its character (if it were able to
adapt itself to the new conditions) or would (if it could not adapt
itself) be overthrown. Similarly, if a new major social force de-
velops-commerce, for example, in a previously agricultural so-
ciety, or applied science-then either the existing ruling class
proves itself flexible enough to gain leadership over this new
force
(in part, no doubt, by absorbing new members into its ranks) ; or, if
it does not, the leadership of the new force grows up outside of the
old class, and in time constitutes a revolutionary threat against the old
ruling class, challenging it for supreme social and political power.
Thus, the growth of new social forces and the decline of old forces
is in general correlated with the constant process of change and
dislocation in the ruling class.
MOSA: THEORYOFRULINGCLASS 99
A rulin class expresses its role and position through what
Mosca call a political formula. This formula rationalizes and
justifies its rule and the structure of the, society over which it
rules. The formula may be a "racial myth," as in Germany at the
present ti me or in this country in relation to the Negroes or the
yellow race: rule is then explained as the natural prerogative of
the superio race. Or it may be a "divine right" doctrine, as in
the theorie elaborated in connection with the absolutist mon-
archies of e r6th and 17th centuries, or in Japan at the present
day: then le is explained as following from a peculiar relation-
ship to divinity, very often in fact from direct blood descent (such
formulas were very common in ancient times, and have by no
means lost all efficacy). Or, to cite the formula most familiar to
us, and fu ctioning now in this country, it is a belief in the "will
of the peo le": rule is then said to follow legitimately from the
will or cho.ce of the people expressed through some type of suf-
frage.
"According to the level of civilization in the peoples among
whom the are current, the various political formulas may be
based either upon supernatural beliefs or upon concepts
which,
if they do not correspond to positive realities, at least appear to
be rationa
l We shall not say that they correspond in either case
to scientifi? truths. A conscientious observer would be obliged to
confess th t, if no one has ever seen the authentic document by
which the ..ord empowered certain privileged persons or families
to rule his 'people on his behalf, neither can it be maintained that
a popular election, however liberal the suffrage may be, is ordi-
narily the expression of the will of a people, or even of the will
of the majority of a people.
"And yIt that does not mean that political formulas are mere
quackerie
s aptly invented to trick the masses into obedience. Any-
one who 4iewed them in that light would fall into grave error.
100 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
The truth is that they answer a real need in man's social nature;
and this need, so universally felt, of governing and knowing that
one is governed not on the basis of mere material or intellectual
force, but on the basis of a moral principle, has beyond any doubt a
practical and real importance." (P. 70
Since the problem of such formulas (ideologies, myths) will
occupy us at length later on, I shall note here only two further
facts concerning them. First, the special political formula em-
ployed within a given nation is often related to wider myths that
are shared by a number of nations, so that several political formu-
las appear as variations on similar basic themes. Conspicuous
among these wider myths are the great world religions-Christi-
anity, Buddhism, Mohammedanism-which, unlike most earlier
religions or still-continuing religions of the type of Japanese
Shintoism, are not specifically bound up with a single nation or
people; the myth, probably best expressed by Rousseau, which is
built out of such ideas as the innate goodness of man, the will of
the people, humanitarianism, and progress; and the contemporary
myth of collectivism, which, in Mosca's opinion, is the logical ex-
tension of the democratic Rousseau myth.
Second, it may be seen from historical experience that the in-
tegrity of the political formula is essential for the survival of a
given social structure. Changes in the formula, if they are not
to destroy the society, must be gradual, not abrupt. The formula
is indispensable for holding the social structure together. A wide-
spread skepticism about the formula will in time corrode and dis-
integrate the social order. It is perhaps for this reason, half-
consciously understood, that all strong and long-lived societies
have cherished their "traditions," even when, as is usually the case,
these traditions have little relation to fact, and even after they can
hardly be believed literally by educated men. Rome, Japan, Venice,
all such long-enduring states, have been very slow to change the
MOS A: THEORYOFRULINGCLASS 10I
c
old formulas, the time-honored ways and stories and rituals; and
they have Been harsh against rationalists who debunk them. This,
after all, w s the crime for which Athens put Socrates to death.
From the point of view of survival, she was probably right in
doing so.
4. Tendencies in the Ruling Class
ii
110 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
one that is mediocre in most or all of them. Thus, the conception of
"level of civilization" can serve as a rough standard for evaluat ing
different cultures.
But what is it that makes possible a high level of juridical de-
fense and of civilization? With the answer to this question we
come to what is perhaps the most profound and most important
of all Mosca's ideas, though it, also, has its source in Machiavelli.
Mosca's answer, moreover, is sharply at variance with many
accepted theories, and particularly opposed to the arguments of
almost all the spokesmen of the ruling class.
The mere formal structure of laws and constitutions, or of
institutional arrangements, cannot guarantee juridical defense.
Constitutions and laws, as we certainly should know by now,
need have no relation to what happens-Hitler never repealed
the Weimar Constitution, and Stalin ordered the adoption of
"the most democratic constitution in the history of the world."
Nor can the most formally perfect organizational setup: one-
house or two- or three-house legislatures, independent or re-
sponsible executives, kings or presidents, written or unwritten
constitutions, judges appointed or elected-decisions on these
formalities will never settle the problem. Nor will any doctrine, nor
any reliance on the good will of whatever men, give a guaran tee: the
men who want and are able to get power never have the necessary
kind of good will, but always seek, for themselves and their group,
still more power.
In real social life, only power can control power. Juridical de-
fense can be secure only where there are at work various and
opposing tendencies and forces, and where these mutually check
and restrain each other. Tyranny, the worst of all governments,
means the loss of juridical defense; and juridical defense in-
variably disappears whenever one tendency or force in society
succeeds in absorbing or suppressing all the others. Those who
M09CA: THEORY OF RULING CLASS III
control t e supreme force rule then without restraint. The
individual as no protection against them.
From ne point of view, the protective balance must be estab-
lished between the autocratic and liberal principles, and between
the aristjcratic and democratic tendencies. Monopoly by the aris
tocratic tendency produces a closed and inflexible caste system,"
and fossilization; the extreme of democracy brings an unbridled
anarchy under which the whole social order flies to pieces.
More p Ifundamentally, there must be an approximate balance.
among the major social forces , or at the least a shifting equilibrium
in which no one of these forces can overpower all the rest. "Even
grantedsthat such a world [the world of so many utopians, where
conflicts and rivalries among different forces, religions, and parties
will have ended] could be realized, it does not seem to us a de-
sirable sort of world. So far in history, freedom to think, to
observes to judge men and things serenely and dispassionately,
has beef possible-always, be it understood, for a few individuals
-only in those societies in which numbers of different religious
and political currents have been struggling for dominion. That
same c )ndition ... is almost indispensable for the attainment of
what i; commonly called `political liberty'-in other words, the
highest possible degree of justice in the relations between gov-
ernors and governed that is compatible with our imperfect human
nature:" (P. 196.) "History teaches that whenever, in the course
of the! ages, a social organization has exerted such an influenc e
[to ra se the level of civilization] in a beneficial way, it has done
so bec use the individual and collective will of the men who have
held power in their hands has been curbed and balanced by other
men, who have occupied positions of absolute independence and
have iad no common interests with those whom they have had
to cub and balance. It has been necessary, nay indispensable, that
thereshould be a multiplicity of political forces, that there should
112
THE MACHIAVELLIANS
be many different roads by which social importance could be
acquired ..." (Pp. 29 1-2.)
active existence.
To sum up: All of these causes work alike, and inescapably, to
create within the organization a leadership. The leadership, a
minority and in a large organization always a relatively small
minority, is distinguished from the mass of the organization. The
organization is able to keep alive and to function only through its
leaders.*
Democratic theory is compelled to try to adapt itself to the fact
of leadership. This it does through the subsidiary theory of "repre-
sentation." The group or organization is still "self-governing";
but its self-government works through "representatives." These
*I am referring,, here and throughout this analysis, to the de facto leaders,
who often are not the same as the nominal leaders. As everyone knows, the
party "boss" does not necessarily occupy high position; the party chairman may
be an unimportant person in the organization. Nor need the member of Parlia-
ment 'or Congress or even a Prime Minister or President be as much a leader as
the man or group that gets them elected. It is the fact, not the form, of leader-
ship that is under discussion. Equalitarian revolutionists-communards or an-
archists or syndicalists or jacobins-can eliminate titles, but they cannot
eliminate
leaders.
M'CHELS: LIMITS OF DEMOCRACY
145
have no independent status; what they do or decide merely
represents a will of the organization as a whole; the principle of
democra y is left intact.
This t eory of representation is suspiciously simple, and those
who are of bewitched by word-magic will guess at the outset that
it is brought off by a verbal juggle. Indeed, the basic theorists of
modern democracy were themselves more than a little troubled
by "representation." The truth is that sovereignty, which is what
-accord ng to democratic principle--ought to be possessed by the
mass, cannot be delegated. In making a decision, no one can rep-
resent t sovereign, because to be sovereign means to make
one's o decisions. The one thing that the sovereign cannot
possibly elegate is its own sovereignty; that would be self-con-
tradictor , and would simply mean that sovereignty has shifted
hands, most, the sovereign could employ someone to carry
out decis ons which the sovereign itself had already made. But
this is no what is involved in the fact of leadership: as we have
already seen, there must be leaders because there must be a way
of deciding questions which the membership of the group is not
in a position to decide. Thus the fact of leadership, obscured by
the therr of representation, negates the principle of democracy.
"Ford mocracy, however, the first appearance of professional
leadershi marks the beginning of the end, and this, above all, on
account o the logical impossibility of the `representative' system,
whether i parliamentary life or in party delegation. Jean Jacques
Rousseau ay be considered as the founder of this aspect of the
criticism f democracy. He defines popular government as `the
exercise o the general will,' and draws from this the logical
inference, `it can never be alienated, and the sovereign, which is
simply a collective being, can be represented only by itself.' Con-
sequently, `at the moment when a people sets up representatives,
it is no longer free, it no longer exists.' A mass which delegates
its sovereignty, that is to say transfers its sovereignty to the hands
146 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
of a few individuals, abdicates its sovereign functions. For the will
of the eo _ 5
f ply i not transferable, nor ma the
w�11 of the single
individual." (Pp. 36-7. I have translated the quotations from
Rousseau, which are left in French in the text.)
There is no need, however, to leave the matter with this some-
what abstract demonstration. The facts already cited indicate not
merely how a leadership necessarily arises in an organization, but
how faiorably the leadership
is placedfor acting independently of
and, when occasion arises, counter to the will of the mass of the
membership. Let us, granting the fact of leadership, inquire
further into the problem: who controls whom, the mass or the
leaders? The leaders will always say that they are only expressing the
will of the members (or "the people"), but we are prepared to pay
very little attention to what they say.
We may observe that there are profound psychological causes
not merely for thp uigtn& o f the leadershipwhich
rests in the
first place, as we have seen, on mechanical and technical causes),
but for the consolidation of the leadership as a special group,
largely independent of control by the mass of the membership.
For example, in nearly all organizations that have left the
tempests of their birth, there comes to be accepted on all sides
what might be called a-customary right to office. Formally, a new
election for an office may be held every year or two. But in
practice, the mere fact that an individual has held the office in
the
past is thought by him and by the members to give him a moral
claim on it for the future; or, if not on the same office, then on
some other leadership post in the organization. It becomes almost
unthinkable that those who have served-the org anization so well,
or even not so well, in the past should be thrown aside. A duty to
the leader is created in the sentiment of the members; the office-
holder gains a right. If the vagaries of elections by chance turn
out wrong, then a niche is found in an embassy or bureau or post-
office, or, at the end, in the pension list.
MI HELS: LIMITS OF DEMOCRACY 147
The strength of this customary right to office is well shown by
the histor, of the trade-union movement in this country. During
the violen early days of many unions, administrations come and
go in a seies of overturns. But as soon as the union is established,
with a substantial, regular list of dues-paying members, and a
few signe contracts, the custom asserts itself. Hardly ever is
the administration overthrown in a solid union. So long as the
leaders have the necessary skill in the specialized task of guiding
and controlling organizations, they may be criminals or saints,
socialists tlr Republicans; depression or boom may come; wages
may go or down; strikes may be won or betrayed; but the
administr tion rides through all. This very natural phenomenon
is puzzlin� to those who reason formally. How', they wonder, can
this convii;ted criminal, that grafter, this man who sold out his
members Ito the bosses, or that one whose incompetence lost the
chance to organize a whole new branch of the industry, be re-
tained stir. in office? They can answer such questions, if they are
not union members, by looking only a little closer at whatever
organization is nearer to them-lodge or chamber of commerce or
club o
l governmental bureaucracy.
The cu omary right to office makes possible an interesting de-
vice, freq tent in many political organizations: the device of res-
ignation. The leader, threatened with an adverse vote from a
conventio I or a parliament (or, in a smaller group, an assembly
of the entjre membership), o ffers his resignation. The very heart,
it would eem, of democracy! The leader no longer represents the
group wil, so he is ready to step aside as leader; and this is no
doubt the way he puts it. But this is not the real meaning of the
act. In trt th, it is a powerful stroke whereby the leader forces his
will upon the group. In the issue, the resignation is not accepted;
it is the convention that gives up its opposition to the leader's
proposals, the parliament that votes "confidence." Winston
149 Tf4 A A iiiAivs
Churchill has proved himself a master of this device, which is
aided by the English system of a "responsible executive."
More fundamental than the right to office is the psychological
need felt by the amasses for leadership. This sentiment is a com-
p o u n d c J h > m jrq u a O m n i, N w p t in m o lt u n u s u a l d ra m a tic
circumstances, and seldom even then, the bulk of the membership
of any large organization is passive with respect to the organiza-
tional activities. Only a small percentage of a union's membership
comes regularly to meetings. A still'smaller part of the membership
of a political party provides the active party workers: consider how
difficult it is to get 20,000 party members from among New York
City's millions to a Democratic or Republican campaign meet-
ing-and attendance at a meeting is a minor enough activity. In
a referendum, only a minority bothers to mail back the ballots.
Unless voting is compulsory, only a fraction of the voting popu-
lation can even be got to the polls. How much smaller is the
fraction that participates in the constant, active, decisive work of
the organization. "Though it grumbles occasionally, the majority
is really delighted to find persons who will take the trouble to
look after its affairs. In the mass, and even in the organized mass
of the labor parties, there is an immense need for direction and
guidance. This need is. accompanied by a genuine cult for the
leaders, who are regarded as heroes." (P. 53.) Whatever the causes
of this indifference and passivity,-and this willingness to let others
do the active work of deciding, their existence is plain enough.
Moreover, as Machiavelli had also noted, "the most striking
proof of the organic weakness of the mass is furnished by the way
in which, when deprived of their leaders in time of action, they
abandon the field of battle 'in disordered flight; they seem to have
no power of instinctive reorganization, and are useless until new
captains arise capable of replacing those that have been lost. The
failure of innumerable strikes and political agitations is explained
very simply by the opportune action of the authorities, who have
MI HELS: LIMITS OF DEMOCRACY 149
placed the leaders under lock and key." (P. 56.) Nor is this
phenomenon confined. to labor organizations.
It may le added that this need for leadership brings it about
that the leaders of such organizations as mass political parties-
or the state--are kept extremely busy. "Their positions are any-
thing but sinecures, and they have acquired their supremacy at
the cost o extremely hard work. Their life is one of incessant
effort. In democratic organizations the activity of the pro-
fessional l ader is extremely fatiguing, often destructive to health,
and in ge eral (despite the division of labor) highly complex:'
(P• 57•) n
The masses have deep feelings of political gratitude toward
those who` seemingly, speak and write in their behalf, and who on
occasion suffer, or have suffered, persecution, imprisonment, or exile
in the name of their ideals. This gratitude finds ready ex pression irj
re-election to office, even where the events which gave occasion f'r the
gratitude lie in a distant and out-lived past. Ma chiavelli 4as aware,
also, of this natural sentiment of gratitude. In his zeal for the
protection of liberty, he warned against it, and praised the Romans for
not taking into account past services when they were judging a present
fault.
There ae certain qualities, some innate and some acquired by
training, ut none spread widely and evenly, that make for
leadership and are accepted by the mass as doing so. Oratorical
talent ands the prestige of celebrity-in almost any field, however
irrelevant-rare prominent among them. In addition, "Numerous
and varies are the personal qualities thanks to which certain
individual succeed in ruling the masses. These qualities, which
may be co sidered as specific qualities of leadership, are not neces-
sarily all 4sembled in every leader. Among them, the chief is the
force of ill which reduces to obedience less powerful wills.
[Again, achiavelli's virtu.] Next in importance come the follow-
ing: a wi 4 er extent of knowledge which impresses the members
150 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
of the leaders' environment; a catonian strength of conviction, a
force of ideas often verging on fanaticism, and which arouses the
respect of the masses by its very intensity; self-sufficiency, even if
accompanied by arrogant pride, so long as the leader knows how
to make the crowd share his own pride in himself; in exceptional
cases, finally, goodness of heart and disinterestedness, qualities
which recall in the minds of the crowd the figure of Christ, and
reawaken religious sentiments which are decayed but not ex-
tinct."(P. 72.)
In the case of great organizations with important activities-
the state, political parties, mass trade unions, and for that matter
large industrial and commercial corporations-the mass, both as
a body and in terms of most of the individuals composing it, is
incompetent to carry on the work. This follows not only from the
psychological qualities already mentioned, but because of the lack
of the required knowledge, skill, and training. The work, even
the routine through which the work is carried on-the intricacies
of parliamentary procedure, for example-is exceedingly com-
plex; even with native ability, time is required to become e ffective
at it. With respect to the organizational tasks, the leaders possess
a genuine superiority over the mass, and of this they are well
aware. "Here, as elsewhere, the saying is true that no undertaking
can succeed without leaders, without managers. In parallelism
with the corresponding phenomena in industrial and commercial
life, it is evident that with the growth of working-class [or any
other] organization there must be an accompanying growth in
the value, the importance, and the authority of the leaders."(P.
89.)
In short, the leaders-not every individual leader, but the leader-
ship as a group, and a group with at least a considerable measure
of stability and permanence-are indispensable to every important
organization. Their genuine indispensability is the strongest lever
whereby the position of the leadership is consolidated, whereby
MI HEh§5; LIMITS OF DEMOCRACY
the leaders control and are not controlled by the mass, whereby,
therefore, democracy succumbs. The power of the leadership, or-
ganized as an informal sub-group independent of the mass of the
membership, follows as a necessary consequence of its indispensa-
bility.
3. The Autocracy of Leadership
facts of perience." (P. 400.) "The mass will never rule except
in abstra to. Consequently the question . . . is not whether ideal
democra : is realizable, but rather to what point and in what de-
gree democracy is desirable, possible, and realizable at a given
moment.,' (P. 402.) Oligarchy will always remain; but it may be
possible o put some limit and restraint on the absoluteness of,,
oligarch This cannot be effectively done by a utopian and senti-
mental idealism concerning the possibilities of democracy. "Noth-
ing but a. serene and frank examination of the oligarchical dangers
of a de ocracy will enable us to minimize these dangers, even
though Ley can never be entirely avoided." (P. 408.) "Those
i68 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
alone, perhaps, are in a position to pass a fair judgment upon
democracy who, without lapsing into dilettantist sentimentalism,
recognize that all scientific and human ideals have relative values.
If we wish to estimate the value of democracy, we must do so in
comparison with its converse, pure aristocracy. The defects in-
herent in democracy are obvious. It is none the less true that as a
form of social life we must choose democracy as the least of evils."
(P. 407.) "Democracy is a treasure which no one will ever discover
by deliberate search. But in continuing our search, in laboring
indefatigably to discover the undiscoverable, we shall perform a
work which will have fertile results in the democratic sense."
(P• 405.)
"The democratic currents of history resemble successive waves.
They break ever on the same shoal. They are ever renewed. This
enduring spectacle is simultaneously encouraging and depressing.
When democracies have gained a certain stage of development,
they undergo a gradual transformation, adopting the aristocratic
spirit, and in many cases also the aristocratic forms, against which
at the outset they struggled so fiercely. Now new accusers arise to
denounce the traitors; after an era of glorious combats and of in-
glorious power, they end by fusing with the old dominant class;
whereupon once more they are in their turn attacked by fresh
opponents who appeal to the name of democracy. It is probable
that this cruel game will continue without end." (P. 408.)
Part VI
Analysis can, Pareto believes, show that there are a good many
residues operative in social action. For convenience, he divides
them into six main classes, though other divisions might be sub-
stituted without altering the main theory. This list, with a brief
explanation of each class, is as follows (888 and fi.) :
Class I: Instinct for Combinations. This is the tendency
which
leads human beings to combine or manipulate various elements
taken arbitrarily from experience. Many magical practices are a
result of its operation: the manipulations to control weather or
disease, to bring good luck, the supposed efficacy assigned to cer-
tain numbers (3 or 7 or 13, for example) suitably employed,
totems, and so on. Supposed connections are established between
I ARETO: THESOCIALACTION 187
certain eve ts, formulas, prayers, or words, and good or bad luck,
happiness or terror or sorrow. At a complex level it is this residue
that leads restless individuals to large-scale financial
manipula tions, merging and combining and re-combining of
various eco nomic ent rprises, efforts to entangle and disentangle
political units, to rr. ake and remake empires.
It is resi ues of Class I, also, that impel men to "system-making"
-that is, t elaborate logical or rather pseudo-logical combinations of
ideas a d mental elements in general, to theologies and metaphysics
an ideologies of all sorts. Thus it is this class of residue that
chie$y� accounts for "derivations," expressing man's need to make
his wn behavior seem rational.
Class II: Group-Persistences. When once any combination has
been formed, forces come into play to keep that combination sus-
tained an persisting. These are, one might say, "conservative"
forces, present among animals as well as human beings, and
sometimes referred to as "social inertia." They express themselves,
for instan , in the powerful feeling that the family or the tribe
or the city or the nation is a permanent and objective entity. So
strong are they that the dead and the not-yet-living are included
in the supposedly persisting unit, and we thus have all the many
forms of a cestor-worship, belief in immortality, and social provi-
sions mad1 for a posterity that will not exist until all living persons
are long dyad. "Family pride," "class solidarity," patriotism, reli-
gious zeal are all quite direct modes of these residues.
They a ount also for the feeling that "property" becomes a
permanent part of a man's being, so much so that certain objects
are even p aced with the dead body in the grave, or for the "love
of the nat ve soil." In another direction, they give persisting life
to abstract ons and personifications. Gods and heroes and Platonic
Forms an "natural law" and "progress" and "the state" and "the
moral wil " and many other creatures of the dynamic human
imaginati n are endowed with substance and enduring reality.
188 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
These Class II residues, as Pareto describes them, are usually
accompanied by a willingness to use force in order to maintain
the solidity and persistence of the entities in question-to "save the
nation," or the "true faith," for example.
We shall later see that Pareto considers the Class I and Class II
residues to be the most important in influencing changes in
political and social structure.
Class III: Need of Expressing Sentiments by External
Acts-
Residues of Self-Expression and Activity. Most human
beings
constantly feel the need to "do something," whether or not the
something done can accomplish any desired purpose. Ignorance
of medical science in no way stops the family from bustling about
when someone is ill. Most persons always feel that something
must be done to improve political and economic conditions, even
though they have not the slightest idea whether what they do--
making speeches or campaigning for votes or advocating this or
that reform-will in fact affect conditions favorably; and most
people are very impatient with anyone who remains passive
"while civilization is being destroyed." This class of residues is
plainly connected with Class I-making "combinations" is one of
the chief forms of activity.
Class IV: Residues Connected with Sociality. This class,
and
also Class V, as Pareto treats them, are related to residues of
Class II, and it is somewhat arbitrary to separate them in theory.
Indeed, with the exception of Class VI (sex residues), all residues
tend to fall into two main classes-(i) "combinations," the tend-
encies to change, newness, manipulations, speculations, upsets,
progress; and (2) "group-persistences," the tendencies to inertia,
resistance to change, social solidarity, conservation, conformity.
However, under Class IV Pareto groups such factors as the
need felt by the individual for conformity with the group, and
his effort to force conformity on others; the distrust or hatred
of innovation; the opposite but related social sentiments of pity
P'ARETO: THESOCIALACTION 189
and cruelt ; the willingness to sacrifice life or comfort or property
for the su y osed good of others; the sentiments of social ranking
and hierar by present in most pe rsons-feelings, that is, that some
individual are superior, some inferior in the social scale; and the
almost universal need for group approval.
Most of these feelings, and the significant part they play in
providing L foundation for social life, have been noted by writers
on society1from the time of the Greek philosophers. We should
keep in m
ind that what is distinctive in Pareto's analysis of them
is his general contention that they are all non-logical in origin.
They may yield good or bad results-that will. depend upon the
circumstances-but they continue to function in any case, not
from deliberate intention but independent of all processes of ra-
tional tho ght. We do not conform with the group and its cus-
toms beca use we have a theory that thereby our own life becomes
more satisfactory; we begin with a tendency to conform, and only
later do �Jl7_e invent or adopt a theory that this is "the best way
of life." We do not,sacrifice our life for our country because we
believe in some complex philosophical theory, of which many are
availableabout the nature of social life and the state; a tendency
to self-sa rifice is prior to the theories, and they are only an at-
tempt, u der the pressure of Class I Residues, to give the tendency a
pleasing logical form.
Class Integrity of the Individual and His Appurtenances.
In
general, according to Pareto's account, these are the feelings that
lead men! to guard their personal integrity, to maintain themselves
and the conditions of their existence, together with whatever they
happen tb identify with themselves and those conditions of exist-
ence. For example, there is the usual strong feeling against any
serious a teration in the social structure. In a. slave society, most
people a e indignant at a proposal for doing away with slaves; in
a capital st society, at attacks on "the rights of property"; and the
indignation, which would seem natural enough in the case of,,
190 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
slave-holders or capitalists, extends to the other members of the
social group who do not have slaves or capital wealth. Many of
those who fought most bravely on the Southern side during the
Civil War never owned or could hope to own slaves; many of
those fighting today in the United States Army, in order, so some
of their leaders tell them, "to defend free enterprise," have never
owned and will never own any share of that enterprise. Never-
theless, they identify the preservation of their own integrity with
the preservation of the general social structure.
When something has gone wrong, has violated the integrity
of the individual, he seeks to restore his integrity. A taboo has
been broken, so a purification ceremony is performed (as in the
case of baptism, the purification may be required because of the
impiety of a very distant or even mythical ancestor). The indi-
vidual must "re-assert" himself after a slip. A Purgatory must
restore'a balance that has been upset during real life. Or the in-
tegrity is restored by actions directed against the real or supposed
violator-that is, vengeance must be carried out, the criminal pun-
ished, the heretic burned.
Pareto also holds this Class of Residues responsible for many
of the feelings of social equality. Such feelings, he shows, are
never what they seem to be, but are always in fact a drive
toward
extra privileges for the group that adheres to the doctrine of
equality that may be in question. The post-Renaissance bour-
geoisie, calling for "equality," wanted in fact the transfer of the
major social privileges from the feudal aristocrats to themselves;
analogously today in the case of the working class demands for
equality. From the point of view of this analysis, there is no con-
tradiction in the evident fact that a nation fighting sincerely for
equality can at the same time accept internal practices of racial
and religious discrimination. The contradiction exists only in the
words used, which are of slight influence, and not in the feeling
which the words in their own curious way express.
ARETO: THESOCIALACTION 191
Class V The Sex Residue, The merely biological sex urge is
not, properly speaking, a residue. The sex residue functions only
where it r ceives an expression that is at least partly verbal, where
theories a 'd literature and moral rules and religious doctrines are
used as t e ever-varying but always present disguises and dis-
tortions o the sex impulse. In his treatment of the sex residue
and its "s?blimations," Pareto is not unlike Freud, though he was
apparentl not directly acquainted with Freud's writings.
These 4x, then, or others of the same sort, are the major and
relatively nchanging nuclei of non-logical conduct, the conduct
that mak s up the greater proportion of human action and in
particular of those actions that affect the course of government
and histofy.
-7 F
192 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
cal-scientific] reasonings only, there would be no derivations;
instead of them we should get logico-experimental [scientific]
theories. But the human hunger for thinking is satisfied in any
number of ways; by pseudo-experimental reasonings, by words
that stir the sentiments, by fatuous, inconclusive `talk: So
derivations come into being." (1401.)
Derivations-which include all or nearly all doctrines and be-
liefs and theories that figure in social struggles, principles of
democracy and law and authority, moral and theological systems,
justifications of this or that form of society, bills of rights and
programs and charters-are divided by Pareto (1419) into four
main classes:
Class I: Assertion. These, the simplest and most direct and often
the most effective of derivations, are mere dogmatic assertions.
They frequently take the form of maxims and aphorisms-
"Honesty is the best policy," "Expect from another what you have
done to another," "It is better to receive a wrong than to inflict
one," the Golden Rule, and so on. The tone and feeling with
which these simple assertions are made and accepted,
especially if
they are constantly repeated, may give them great persuasive value.
This point is stressed in Hitler's discussions of propaganda in
Mein Kam p f : "Any effective propaganda must be confined to a
very few points, and must use these as slogans until the very last
man cannot help knowing what is meant... . Propaganda must
limit itself to saying very little, and this little it must keep forever
repeating... ."
Class II: Authority. This large variety of derivations argues by
making an appeal to some authority: an individual or group of
individuals; divine beings or personifications; or the authority of
tradition and custom. There is seldom the slightest scientific justi-
f i cation for accepting the relevance of the authority's opinion-
which besides is not seldom wholly unreal-but this does not
weaken the effectiveness of the derivation. God's Will, the
Bible,
PARETO: THESOCIALACTION 193
what ou forefathers did, Marx's "real meaning," a Farewell
Address or a Testament to Posterity, remain cogent arguments
from a n )n-logical standpoint.
With the help
Class II: Accords with Sentiment or Principles.
of Class I Residues, men convert sentiments into abstractions,
persistent realities and everlasting principles. The power of these
entities i1 derived from the feelings they express, not from their
suppose logical or scientific rigor. Because of their power they
too can rve as premises in the pseudo-logic of derivations. The,
theorist an appeal to "universal judgment" or "the collective
mind" o "the will of the people" or "the opinion of all the best,
minds," nd be persuasive without any need to take the trouble„ to
gathe the actual facts about what actual people think. A politi cal
prog(am which serves the "best, interests of humanity" or
embodies the "principles of natural law" or respects the "eternal,,
rights o individuals" is made acceptable without a tedious scien-, tific
asse sment of just what its effects upon real society and real men wo
ild probably be.
IV :
C la s s Verbal Proofs. These are the familiar derivations that,
depend upon verbal confusions and fallacies, ambiguous terms,
the intrusion of emotive expressions in the place of statements of,
fact, me aphors and allegories taken for proofs, all of which have
been re ently so much discussed by the many writers on
"se manticsi"
71
196 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
ciety's welfare? . The principles from which the humani-
tarian doctrine is logically derived in no way correspond with the
facts. They merely express in objective form a subjective sentiment
of asceticism. The intent of sincere humanitarians is to do good to
society, just as the intent of the child who kills a bird by too much
fondling is to do good to the bird. We are not, for that matter,
forgetting that humanitarianism has had some socially desirable
effects. For ode thing, it has contributed to the mitigation of crim-
inal penalties; and if among these some were beneficial, so that
society has suffered from their mitigation, there were others that
were useless, so that by their mitigation society has gained.
And so for the democratic religion in general. The many varieties
of Socialism, Syndicalism, Radicalism, Tolstoyism, pacifism, hu-
manitarianism, Solidarism, and so on, form a sum that may be
said to belong to the democratic religion, much as there was a
sum of numberless sects in the early days of the Christian religion.
We are now witnessing the rise and dominance of the democratic
religion, just as the men of the first centuries of our era witnessed
the rise of the Christian religion and the beginnings of its do-
minion. The two phenomena present many profoundly significant
analogies. To get at their substance we have to brush derivations
aside and reach down to residues. The social value of both those
two religions lies not in the least in their respective theologies, but
in the sentiments that they express. As regards determining the
social value of Marxism, to know whether Marx's theory of `sur-
plus value' is false or true is about as important as knowing
whether and how baptism eradicates sin in trying to determine
the social value of Christianity-and that is of no importance at
all. (1859•)
3. Social Utility
SINCE HE BEGINNING of systematic thought-that is, for
about 25 0 years in western culture-there has been constant dis
cussion 4 f the problem of "the good community," "the ideal so-
ciety", " e best form of government:' Tens of thousands of per-
sons ha e given time and intelligence to arguments over these
question t, and have devised nearly as many answers. After all this
while, en have not reached any generally accepted conclusions,
and the is no indication that we have advanced in these matters
a singlet step beyond the reasonings of the ancient Greeks and.
Romans This fact, and the contrast it presents to the advances
made i ° solving the problems of the physical sciences, are enough
to shoe that the attempted answers to these questions are not
scientifi ally credible theories, but non-logical expressions, that is
to say, derivations. Derivations, not being subject to the controls
of logic clarity and evidence, never reach any objective stability,
but co tie and go with every shift of sentiment and cultural
fashion
Disputes over the best form of society and government can be
interpr ted in terms of the notion of "social utility." When we are
asking hether some law or economic measure or belief or way or
revolution will be best for society, we are wondering if it
contrib to to the community's welfare or utility. In connection
with t e idea of "social utility," Pareto makes certain distinctions
which help to clarify what is meant by this whole type of problem.
To gin with, it may readily be observed that a community (a
nation for example) is heterogeneous. It is not composed of
identic 1 elements, but sub-divided into various groups and
classes:
197
198 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
rulers and ruled in one rough way, but with many more intricate
and elaborate divisions-economic classes, religious sects, and so
on. Ordinarily, the philosophers, reformers, and social writers
speak of "the community" or "the society"; but these are vague
and distant abstractions. It is to be expected, and it is ordinarily
the case, that any given proposal should be useful to some sub-
groups of the community, and detrimental to others: a benefit to
the rulers, a detriment to the ruled; good for the workers, but
hurtful to employers... . The spokesmen for the various groups
never, of course, put things in this distinct way. They make use of
derivations, and always put a program, the consequences of
which would be favorable to their own group, forward in the
name of the community as a whole. From this habit not a little
confusion results.
A war wherein defeat would result in death or enslavement for
the whole population is directly related to the welfare of the en-
tire community; but in modern times this is not usually what
happens as a result of defeat in war. At least some sections of the
defeated communities prosper even in and through the defeat.
More plainly, in the case of such measures as tariffs and
subsidies,
is it pointless to speak of the community as a whole. There are
benefits for some sections; hurts for others. It is by no means
true, to take a prominent current example, that inflation harms
everyone. A certain amount of inflation, under certain circum-
stances, can, by stimulating the economy, help nearly everyone.
More usually, inflations harm some groups-those living on rel-
atively fixed incomes; and aid others-those whose incomes vary
easily, or who are expert speculators and manipulators. Does force
contribute to social utility? The general question is meaningless.
We must first determine what force is under discussion, to be
used by whom and against whom and for what purposes. Force
used against the state and the ruling class, for instance, is very
ARETO: THESOCIALACTION 199
different i� its effects from force used by the state and the ruling
class.
But eve a proper analysis in terms of sub-groups and classes,
will not s fficiently clarify the meaning of utility (welfare, happi-
ness). Wermust, in Pareto's language, distinguish further between
"for a community! t
the utility "o f a community" and the utility
By the ftilitY of a community Pareto refers to what might be called the
community's survival value, its strength and power of
resistance as against
for a com
other communities. By the utility munity P reto means its
internal welfare, the happiness and satis factions o its members.
st
The fir of these may be objectively studied. We can observe
whether he community endures in its struggles with external
rivals, or js overthrown, and disappears as a separate community.
The second utility, however, is purely subjective or relative, since
what is iiternally useful for the community will depend upon
what the members of the community want, what they regard as
constitutig happiness and satisfaction.
Grante that we accept some particular conception of internal
utility (material prosperity would be suitable in the case of most
modern nations), we must note that these two utilities, the inter-
nal and t e external utility, seldom coincide. Those factors which
give a e mmunity survival value, strength and endurance as
against other communities, are usually not the factors that can,,
contribute most to the happiness of its members.
There t are many fairly obvious examples of this divergence.
Lengthy 'and adequate war preparations absorb time, require a
discipline most men find unpleasant, and reduce the volume of„
material goods available for current satisfactions. Nevertheless,
they gretly increase the utility of the community. Again, large
numbers of children usually increase the utility of the community,
its survival value against other communities, at least up to the
limit of the physical means for subsistence. However, in many
200 THE MACH fAVFLLIANS
cases, they decrease the pleasures and satisfactions of the constit-
uent members of the community. In general, measures which
provide more adequately for the strength of the community in
the
future, especially in a future some years or generations distant,
diminish the satisfactions of the existing generation.
Which, then, is better: a shorter historical life for the com-
munity, to end in its destruction, with more internal satisfactions
as it goes along, or a longer life with fewer satisfactions? This
seems to be frequently, perhaps always, the choice. The answer,
needless to say, is never given by deliberate, logical decision. And
it may be that there is no way in which this question could be
objectively answered.
Let us turn to another fundamental question raised by the
problem of social utility. There are, in every community, prevail-
ing norms or standards of conduct, embodied in customs, codes,
laws, moral philosophies, and religions. By various devices, rang-
ing from the automatic pressure of social approval and disapproval
through education to physical force, each individual member of
the community is called upon to observe these standards. As usual,
men are not content merely to try to bring about conformity.
There must be a theory to explain why the individual "ought" to
conform-that is, there must be a derivation. This type of der-
ivation is the substance of most systems of ethics or moral phi-
losophy.
The question suggested by the facts is: Does an individual in
truth realize a maximum happiness for himself by conforming to
the prevailing standards of his community? If the community
norm says to be honest, patriotic, faithful in marriage, is it true
that an individual member of the community will be happier by
not stealing, by sacrificing his life in war, by foregoing adultery?
The overwhelming majority of moral philosophies unite in hold-
ing that these things indeed are true, that the individual best se-
cures his own private happiness by conforming to his
community's
PARETO: THE SOCIAL ACTION 201
standard By a careful analysis (1897 f`.), Pa:reto shows that the
reasonings of the moral philosophies are almost without exception
derivations, depending upon those non-scientific devices briefly
outlined the preceding section. There is never, or almost never,
an object ve examination of the facts themselves, but a reliance
upon va eness, ambiguity, empty abstraction, and sentiment.
And if it: should nevertheless appear that some miscreant seems
happy th ugh he lives a life of wickedness, self-indulgence, and
disregard? for duty, then the philosophers tell us that this is only
appearance and that he is not "really happy."
There are a few philosophies, in contrast, that take a pessimistic
view. Th(y deny that the individual secures his own happiness by
following the standards of the group. These philosophies, too, are
derivatio s. "Such [pessimistic] solutions count for little in the
social eq ilibrium. They are never popular. They have vogue
primarily mong men of letters and philosophers, and are valuable
only as manifestations of the psychic state of this or that indi-
vidual. In moments of discouragement many people repeat, as we
saw, with Brutus, `Virtue, thou art but a name.' Oftentimes pessi-
mism ac as a spur to material enjoyments, and many people of
literary inclinations will repeat the maxim: `Let us eat, drink, and
be merry, for tomorrow we die.' In Russia, after the war with Ja-
pan, there was a movement for revolution, with eager hopes of an
exciting future. The revolution was put down, the hopes were
dispelled. period of discouragement followed, with a marked
impulse tciwards purely physical enjoyments." (iggy, 2000.)
What is the truth about this problem, apart from derivations?
The truthp seems to be that no general conclusion can be drawn.
Sometime: the individual best secures his own happiness by
con forming ti the group standards; sometimes by disregarding or
violating i he standards. It all depends upon the individual in
question, nd upon the circumstances.
Neverth less, though this is the truth, it would, generally speak-
202 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
ing, be disadvantageous to society for this truth to be known. Al-
most always it is socially useful, it contributes to social welfare, to
have people believe that their own individual happiness is bound
up with acceptance of the community standards: or, as moral
philosophers put it, that there is a direct correspondence between
the welfare of the individual and the welfare of society.
Here, however, we have reached a principle with much wider
application than to this particular problem. Is the truth, or rather
a knowledge of the truth, always advantageous to society? is false-
hood, or nonsense, always harmful? To both of these questions,
the facts compel us to answer, No. The great rationalistic dream
of modern times, believing that social actions are or can be prima-
rily logical, has taught the illusion that the True and the Good
are identical, that if men knew the truth about themselves and
their social and political life, then society would become ever
better; and that falsehood and absurdity always hurt social wel-
fare. But things do not stand in that simple way. Sometimes the
truth aids society. But often a widespread knowledge of the truth
may weaken or destroy sentiments, habits, attitudes upon which
the integrity of social life, above all in times of crisis, may depend.
False beliefs do sometimes produce evil social results; but they
often, also, benefit the community. Again no general conclusion
is possible. We must examine each concrete case, each specific
truth and falsehood in its specific circumstances.
We are not, therefore, entitled to judge that it is invariably a
"bad thing" that men believe derivations, ideologies, myths,
formulas, these verbal constructions which from a scientific stand-
point always contain a large measure of the false and the absurd.
The myths are, in the first place, a necessary ingredient of social
life. A society in which they would be eliminated in favor of
exclusively scientific beliefs would have nothing in common with
the human societies that have existed and do exist in the real
world, and is a merely imaginary fantasy. Here once more our
PARETO: THE SOCIAL ACTION 203
investig tion must be concrete. Certain derivations or myths under
certain circumstances are socially useful, others detrimental; when
the circumstances change, so may the effects of the myths. The
doctrine of the divine right of kings is scientifically ridiculous.
From this it does not follow that it would always be better if
men un(lerstood that it was ridiculous, nor that a belief in it
always hurts society. The democratic ideology is equally ridicu
lous from m the point of view of scientific truth. Belief in it may,
neverthet ess, in one historical context greatly aid, in another
gravely Injure, the welfare of society. Society is not so simple as
a proble in mathematics, which is fully solved once ignorance
is overc me. Not only is it impossible that all men should know
the scie tific truth about society and act in accordance with this
knowledge; it is far from clear that this would improve society
even if it were possible.
Those who believe that all social difficulties could be overcome
if the truth about society were known "recognize only one tie
[obstacl ]-ignorance. Ignorance being eliminated, they have no
doubt at society will follow the course they think is the best.
The tie f ignorance may legitimately be said to have been sup-
pressed, at least in great part; for it is certain that there are edu-
cated peple in our time just as there have been educated people
in the past; and in society as a whole knowledge has increased in
the course of the ages. So far, therefore, no obstacle blocks our
path; b ut one rises insuperable in that part of the argument which
holds that the tie of ignorance is the only tie that has to be re-
moved before the conclusion is possible. If the most intelligent
people we know-the `best-educated,' to use a current term-were
also the people who make most extensive use of logico-experi-
mental scientific] principles in social matters to the exclusion of
all othe principles, it would be legitimate to conclude that, in
course time, such people would reject everything of a non
experimental character; and that other people, more or less their
4
204 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
equals in knowledge, would also be more or less like them in their
exclusive acceptance of logico-experimental principles. But the
facts do not stand that way. If theologians have diminished in
number among our educated people and lost much of their power,
metaphysicists, properly so called, are still prospering and enjoy-
ing fame and influence, to say nothing of those metaphysicists
who call themselves `positivists' or under some other name are
merrily overstepping the boundaries of the logico-experimental.
Many scientistsw �o are supremely great in the natural sciences,
where they use logico-experimental principles exclusively or al-
most so, forget them entirely when they venture into the social
sciences.* As regards the masses in the large, what one observes
is an unending alternation of theologies and systems of meta-
physics rather than any reduction in the total number of them."
(1881.)
* How easily we observe this in the United States, with the examples before
us of great natural scientists like Millikan and Conant and Boas and Urey and
Compton, whose not infrequent remarks on social affairs are, scientifically, much
below the level reached by the average factory worker.
BY "SO IAL EQUILIBRIUM," Pareto means the general state
and structure of society, considered' dynamically, at any given
moment. T at is, the term refers to the state of society insofar as it
involves the interplay of those forces that both determine what it is
at an given moment, and at the same time, through their
operatio work to change its state and structure. What are these
forces th t determine the social equilibrium, that make society
what it i and bring about changes in society? Pareto believes the
chief of diem to be the following:
i. The physical environment-climate, geographical factors,
and the ike-is plainly of great importance, but, since it alters
very slowly during historic periods, may be treated as a constant
and disregarded when trying to discover the laws of social change
and deve pment.
2. Resi , ues are very influential. Residues, Pareto finds, change
slowly, r maining surprisingly stable especially within each or-
ganized s vial group. In the end, however, these slow changes
alter the dvhole fabric of social life. Quicker and more obvious in
their effe are changes not so much in the residues that are pres-
ent as in the distribution of residues in the various strata of so-
ciety. The study of these changes in the distribution of residues
can be in orporated in the discussion of (5) below.
3. Econ mic factors-what Pareto calls "interests"-have also a
major r le, as is recognized by almost all modern historians and
sociologist. In Mind and Society, however, Pareto does not treat
the economic factors at great length.
4. Deri ations, too, have a certain influence on the social equi-
206 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
librium, though Pareto, as we have seen, believes this to be minor
and for the most part indirect compared to the other major fac-
tors. These non-logical beliefs, myths, formulas, are chiefly not-
able as expressions of residues or interests, and for their indirect
ability to reinforce residues or to alter the pattern of the circula-
tion of the elites.
5. Finally, there functions what Pareto calls "the circulation of the
elites." The analysis of this conception will occupy the greater part of
this section.
Pareto, like all Machiavellians, has thus a pluralistic theory of
history. Changes in society do not result from the exclusive im pact
of any single cause, but rather from the interdependent and
reciprocal influences of a variety of causes, principally, though not
only, these five.
*In Th` Managerial Revolution I failed to give enough attention to this phase
of the resolution. I continue to believe, as I stated in that book, that under the
complex 4ocio-economic conditions of modern civilization a stable ruling class
made up almost entirely of soldiers, as were many ruling classes under more
primitive conditions, cannot develop. The ruling class in our age must include
those abl to direct the intricate social forces of our day, and-,this the soldiers
cannot d(, except perhaps during some brief period of crisis. Nevertheless, the
heightenel influence which the soldiers are gaining, and will for some while
maintain, constitutes one'of the most significant features of the managerial rev-
olution.
234 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
revolution, today, directly involves every part of the world. How
plain this should be from the events of the war-for this war is,
also for the first time, in the most strictly literal sense, a world
war.
We should understand that, beginning in 1914 and prepared
for some while before then, a double war has been going on, and
continues. The double nature of the war corresponds to the fact
that the world elite is organized in terms of two different struc-
tures: it is broken up into localized segments as the ruling class
of this or that nation; and, within and across national boundaries,
it is stratified into various social sub-classes and groups (capitalists,
workers, farmers, managers, soldiers, and so on). Thus at one and
the same time the national sections struggle for world domination,
and the social sub-classes strive either to resist the general revolu-
tion or to assure their own leading positions within the new elite
of the new order.
The two phases of the war are inter-related, with now one, now
the other, becoming the more prominent. From 1914-7,the
struggle seemed to be only between the national sections; but in
1917 the Russian Revolution brought the internal social contest
into the open. Today, also, the national aspect is, for a while,
the more obvious. During the intervening years, however, events
in Italy and Germany and then in Spain were reminders of the
second phase. In the summer of 1942 that phase again shot to the
surface, with the beginning of the Indian revolution. In each of
the warring nations, moreover, the internal struggle proceeds at
varying intensities in a variety of forms, along with the inter-
national contest. Washington, like Moscow and Berlin, is a focus
of both wars, not of one only. Not all of the participants in the
revolution have yet openly appeared. There are many shocks still
awaiting those who believe that this is nothing more than a very
big war of one coalition of allies against another, which will end
POLITICS AND TRUTH 235
DURING THE '8th and 19th centuries, and still in many quar-
ters at t present time, theorists have raised the question whether
politics
4an be scientific. It has generally been assumed that an
affirmati e answer would be a ground for optimism: that is, if
politics ould be and were scientific, it has been assumed that
this would contribute to the welfare of mankind. John Dewey, the
leading American philosopher, and his followers continue to debate
this problem, to give an affirmative answer, and to main tain an
titude of social optimism.
It was natural that the question should be raised. From the
'6th cent ry on, the application of scientific method to one after
another field of human interest, other than social affairs, has
f i uniforml resulted in human triumphs with respect to those
elds. In levery field, science has solved relevant problems;
in-
deed, scie ce is in one sense merely the systematic method for
solving relevant problems. If this is the case with mathematics,
astronom , physics, chemistry, geology, why
should it not also
be with s ciety? Why could
we not solve the most important
problems of all, those of soci al andpolitical life, by applying
science?
These h pes in science reflected a wider optimism, both about
what scie e could do and about the possibilities of social
prog ress, whit
, from the point of view of the social achievements of
the '8th aid 19th centuries, seemed unlimited. In our time an
anti-scienti c attitude has been forming, at least toward the ques-
tion of applying science to society, This, in turn, seems to reflect
a pessimism both about what science can do and about all
255
256 THE MACHIAVELLIANS
utopian social ideals. The idea of progress is running the usual
course from self-evident article of faith to empty illusion.
Let us try to answer this question by reference to the facts,
without attempting to justify an attitude of either optimism or
pessimism. Granted the facts, optimism and pessimism are, after
all, a matter of temperament. It is at once apparent that the
broad question, "Can politics be scientific?" is ambiguous. It
must be resolved into several more precise questions before an-
swers become possible. The three of these with which I shall
deal are the following: (i) Can there be a science of politics
(and of society, since politics is a phase of social life) ? (2) Can
the masses act scientifically in political affairs? (3) Can the elite,
or some section of the elite, act scientifically in political affairs?
"The sociological part of Marx' work is, from a scientific standpoint, far superior
to the economic part." (Vol. IT, p. 386.) In particular he notes that the concep-
tion of the class st ru ggle is "profoundly true" (Vol. IT, p. 393).
POLITICS ANDTRUTH 259
laws of social revolution which we have examined in their ap-
plicatio to the present "period; or the summary list of Machiav el-
lian pri ciples stated at the beginning of this Part, as well as
innurime able applications which can be made of these principle s.
There i enough knowledge at hand to have enabled us to realiz e
that the Kellogg Pact was powerless to prevent war, and that the
"Stimso doctrine" of non-recognition of territorial changes made
by force never has and never will stop changes from being made
by force Professional New York gamblers, it is interesting to
note, have never since the Civil War been wrong about the out-
come of a Presidential election, We know enough to be able
to say nctw that there will almost certainly be a terrific economic
crisis shgrtly after the end of the present war -though this ex-
pectation will be carefully obscured by the p arties at interest.
We can jredict, with reasonable assurance, tha t the public debt
of this ar d of almost all other countries will eith er be repudiated
outright, or reduced indirectly through a lowe ring of interest
rates, inflation, or some other similar device. Re asoning on the
analogy
f comparable historical periods, we may conclude that
the trendy away from private capitalism is irreversible.
Our sci ntific statements about social matters must often, it is
true, be p it in conditional form: if other things remain the same,
if such-an
-such does not take place, then so-and-so will probably
happen. There is,
however, an implied condition in most if
not all the statements within all the sciences.) Thus we now may
know, with considerablerobabiliptythat: if th,e state absorbs
under cen ralized control all major social forces, then political
*I base this statement on my personal knowledge from the Harding (1920)
election on; nd, for the elections prior to 1920, on the memory and research of
Jack Doyle, who was, until his death in D ecember, 1942, the utstanding au-
thority in this field. He had been unable to trace the record back beyond the
Civil War. During most of the 1916
campaign, the professional odds favored
Hughes; but they were changed to fav or Wilson forty-eight hours before the
election took ,place.
260 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
liberty will disappear; if, after this war, Europe is again divided
into a considerable number of independent sovereign states, then
a new war will begin in Europe within a comparatively short
time; if the present plan of military strategy (i.e., submarine at-
trition warfare, and "island-hopping") continues unchanged in
the East, then Japan will not be definitely crushed for many,
many years, and perhaps never; if the present Administration
plans to remain in office after 1944, then it will have to curtail
political liberty further; and so on. Such knowledge and much
more is available: available but not, of course, used.
elite ich knew its business, knew, among other things, how
to kee itself in social power, and which was firm enough to
take t e necessary steps to do so. If the generals are no good,
the ar y will be defeated; but the soldiers also-in fact, primarily
-will be the ones who are slaughtered. A society--a city or a
nation or an empire-may become as a whole so thoroughly
rotten hat it is better that it should be destroyed as a social
organi ; but this too is seldom fortunate for the individual
memb rs of the society, ruled as well as rulers.
The lessons of history show that a ruling class can seldom con-
tinue 1 ng in power unless it is prepared to open its ranks to
able and ambitious newcomers from below. A scientific ruling
class will therefore keep its ranks open; and this will also be
to the benefit of the ruled both in providing an outlet for dynamic
indivi als, and even more through permitting a greater expan-
sion of creative social energies. Political liberty, too, in the longer
run, usually aids both rulers and ruled. We have already seen
that th s is so from the point of view of the ruled; from the side
of the ulers, liberty is a safeguard against bureaucratic degenera-
tion, a check on errors, and a protection against revolution.
If a considerable section of the elite proceeded more or less
scientifically, catastrophic revolutions would be much less likely.
It may not be so immediately clear that the elimination of revo-
lutions would promote the welfare of society as a whole. The
net resift of at least some revolutions would seem to be to the
benefit of the masses, at least when measured against the old
regime. However, the point is that a scientific ruling class could
avoid catastrophic revolution not by stopping revolutionary
change in society but only by guiding the change, controlling it,
and thus bringing it about in a more orderly manner. Catas-
trophe revolutions occur when the conditions that require a
drastic change in the social structure are present but the changes
themselves are blocked; then, sooner or later, they burst out in
268 THEMACHIAVELLIANS
full eruption. There is seldom anything inevitable about this
process. The broad changes will take place in any event. If they
can be carried through without the immeasurable blood and
terror and brutality and chaos which are the sure accompani-
ments of modern mass revolutions, there are few who would be
losers. But revolutions will nonetheless certainly come if their
causes are not removed; and only a responsible leadership, under-
standing the laws of society and acting on that understanding,
ready to sacrifice as it would have to sacrifice many of its own
immediate interest;, and blessed, moreover, with not a little luck
besides, would hav, a chance of removing those causes.
It should not be ii agined that even the most thoroughly scien-
tific procedures on the part of a ruling class could "solve" all
the problems of society. We have already remarked that the
broad patterns of social change are established by factors beyond
deliberate human control. Scientific action could, therefore, make
a difference only within the framework of these general patterns.
Many important social problems-permanent peace or permanent
economic prosperity, for example-are very probably insoluble.
Moreover, a scientific ruling class could never hope to do more
than make the best possible use of what was at its disposal: if it
led a nation poor in resources and numbers, it and its society
might still be crushed no matter how brilliantly scientific its
leadership.
However much might be accomplished, for itself and for the
society it led, by a scientific elite, there are obstacles in the way of
scientific political action by an elite, which, if they are not quite
insuperable as in the case of the masses, are nevertheless very
formidable. It is in general, as we have repeatedly seen, exceed-
ingly difficult for men to be scientific, or logical, about social and
political problems. If the elite has an advantage over the masses
in this respect through the possession of more knowledge, more
time free from the burden of getting food and shelter, and no
POLITICS AND TRUTH 269