Risk Factors For Fatal and Nonfatal Repetition of Suicide Attempts: A Literature Review
Risk Factors For Fatal and Nonfatal Repetition of Suicide Attempts: A Literature Review
Risk Factors For Fatal and Nonfatal Repetition of Suicide Attempts: A Literature Review
Massimiliano Beghi 1,2 Objectives: This review aimed to identify the evidence for predictors of repetition of suicide
Jerrold F Rosenbaum 3 attempts, and more specifically for subsequent completed suicide.
Cesare Cerri 1,4 Methods: We conducted a literature search of PubMed and Embase between January 1, 1991
Cesare M Cornaggia 1,5 and December 31, 2009, and we excluded studies investigating only special populations (eg,
male and female only, children and adolescents, elderly, a specific psychiatric disorder) and
1
Psychiatry Clinic, University
of Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy; studies with sample size fewer than 50 patients.
2
Department of Psychiatry, Salvini Results: The strongest predictor of a repeated attempt is a previous attempt, followed by
Hospital, Rho, Italy; 3Massachusetts
being a victim of sexual abuse, poor global functioning, having a psychiatric disorder, being
General Hospital, Harvard
Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; on psychiatric treatment, depression, anxiety, and alcohol abuse or dependence. For other
4
Department of Rehabilitation variables examined (Caucasian ethnicity, having a criminal record, having any mood disor-
Medicine, Zucchi Clinical Institute,
Carate Brianza, Italy; 5Forensic
ders, bad family environment, and impulsivity) there are indications for a putative correlation
Psychiatric Hospital, Castiglione delle as well. For completed suicide, the strongest predictors are older age, suicide ideation, and
Stiviere, Mantua, Italy history of suicide attempt. Living alone, male sex, and alcohol abuse are weakly predictive
with a positive correlation (but sustained by very scarce data) for poor impulsivity and a
somatic diagnosis.
Conclusion: It is difficult to find predictors for repetition of nonfatal suicide attempts, and
even more difficult to identify predictors of completed suicide. Suicide ideation and alcohol or
substance abuse/dependence, which are, along with depression, the most consistent predictors
for initial nonfatal attempt and suicide, are not consistently reported to be very strong predic-
tors for nonfatal repetition.
Keywords: suicide, deliberate self-harm, suicide attempt, repetition, predictors
Introduction
In recent years, suicide-attempt (SA) rates have been widely studied. A World Health
Organization community survey reported the lifetime prevalence of SAs at 0.4%–4.2%.1
Female sex, young age, marital status (divorced or widowed), and having a personality
disorder have been associated with an increased risk of attempting suicide.
The incidence rate for completed suicide (S) is 11.2/100,000,2 increases with age,
and is three times higher in males than in females.3 Suicide accounts for about 1%
of all deaths and is the ninth-leading cause of death in the US and the third in ages
15–24 years.3,4 Rates in Caucasians are twice those of non-Caucasian populations, and
Correspondence: Massimiliano Beghi
Psychosocial Center, married people are less likely than single, divorced, or widowed to commit suicide.2
28 Via Beatrice d’Este, Rho, Milan, Italy For those in bereavement, the risk is higher in the first year after loss. Rates are higher
Tel +39 02 9943 03919
Fax +39 02 9318 2492
in Protestants (31.4/100,000) than in Catholics (10.9/100,000) or Jews (15.5/100,000).
Email [email protected] Unemployment increases the rate of suicide by 50%.3
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The suicide risk is higher in psychiatric patients compared attempt” or “SA,” any nonfatal act in which the patient causes
to nonpsychiatric populations. More specifically, lifetime self-harm (self-mutilation, poisoning, jumping from high
risk of suicide has been reported as high as 15% for affective places, firearm shots, hanging, asphyxiation) was considered.
disorders, 10% for schizophrenia, and 2%–3% for alcohol The nomenclature has been taken from Silverman et al; we
abuse.4 With respect to affective disorders, the risk is higher considered all suicidal acts, despite the degree of suicidal
with increasing severity of depression. Suicides occur more intent. With the term “SA” we mean a not-completed suicide
often in patients with a family history of suicide, mood dis- (with or without injuries), while with the term “S” we mean
orders, and alcohol abuse.4 Suicidality tends to emerge early a completed suicide.9,10
in the course of a mood disorder, and increases in association For the aim of this study, we included cohort studies,
with melancholia and agitation.4 case-control studies, and cross-sectional studies. Since our
Despite these many variables having been associated review focused on environmental risk factors and not on
with suicidal behavior, their usefulness in predicting future management, we excluded studies investigating self-harm
suicidal behavior remains undemonstrated. The prospective management and/or care. Moreover, some of these studies
prediction of later suicide remains difficult.5,6 A need exists, investigated selected populations at risk, and others had
as underlined by Hughes and Owens,6 for more effective very small samples. Thus, we decided to exclude studies
monitoring of people who contact hospitals because of SAs, investigating selected populations (childhood/adolescence,
and for more information on patients who carry out SAs but elderly, males/females only, minorities only, patients with
do not attend hospital. The likelihood of a repeated attempt a specific personality disorder), studies with small samples
after a first SA has been investigated less extensively. An (fewer than 50), or prospective studies with a follow-up
episode of self-harm is a strong predictor of later suicide, shorter than 6 months. We decided to exclude special popu-
with the risk peaking in the first 6 months after a self-harming lations because the aim of the review was the prospective
episode, but risk persists for many decades. prediction of later suicide in the whole population referring
A recent review estimated the 1-year incidence of repeti- to the emergency room.
tion at 16% and fatal repetition at 2% of attempters.7 After Studies on self-poisoning only were included because
9 years, the suicide-fatality rate increased to more than the self-poisoning method encompasses 80% of females’
5%. Both fatal and nonfatal repetition rates were reported and 64% of males’ SAs.8 For the same reason, we decided
to be lower in Mediterranean than in Northern European to include studies on adults only.
countries.8
However, despite the potential importance of studies Data extraction
investigating the risk factors involved in repetition of SA, After a first screening, 211 papers satisfied our inclusion
no systematic reviews of the issue have been reported. criteria. Six were useful for the introduction and for the
Accordingly, the aim of this review was to identify the evi- discussion. The majority of them were carried out in Europe.
dence for predictors of repetition of SA, and more specifically Since designs, the variables studied, and the length of follow-up
for subsequent S. were different among these studies, a formal meta-analysis or
direct comparison was not possible. After excluding 53 studies
Methods for not fulfilling the scope of the review, five studies for small
One of the authors (MB) searched both PubMed and Embase sample size, 72 studies for a selected sample (37 childhood/
systematically for studies carried out between January 1, adolescence, ten elderly, three females only, one males only,
1991 and 31 December, 2009 in English, using the keywords 19 patients with a psychiatric diagnosis, two minorities), we
repetition/repeated suicide attempt, repetition/repeated self- were left with 76 studies: 13 (17%) with a cohort analysis,
harm, recurrence/recurrent self-harm, recurrence/recurrent 45 (59%) with a case-control analysis, and 18 (24%) with a
suicide attempt, repetition/repeated self-poisoning, and cross-sectional analysis (Figure 1).
recurrence/recurrent self-poisoning. Suicides in most pri- Sixty of them (79%) were carried out in Europe, more
mary studies included those that were definite (by verdict of specifically, 24 in the UK, 20 in Scandinavian countries, five
a coroner or equivalent authority) or probable (open verdict in Ireland, two in France, one in Spain, one in the Netherlands,
or equivalent judgment); definitions were too variable for us one in Belgium, and six in three or more countries. The
to discriminate further, and we have included them all and other studies were done in the US (five), Australia (four),
used this broad definition of suicide. With the terms “suicide Canada (two), the People’s Republic of China (two), Iran (one),
1726 submit your manuscript | www.dovepress.com Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment 2013:9
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Dovepress Risk factors for fatal and nonfatal suicide attempts
Brazil (one), and Uganda (one). SA was investigated in 64, of 4,800 consecutive patients would commit suicide. On the
while S was investigated in 18 studies. basis of 21 risk factors, they identified 803 patients having
All the risk factors investigated in the studies were increased risk of suicide. Thirty of 803 (3.7%) committed
inserted and then selected by a consensus-based process suicide in a 5-year follow-up. None of these risk factors was
(by all the authors). detected in 37/67 suicides. These results are confirmed by
a review of twelve studies conducted by Diekstra in 1985.85
Results About 50% of suicidal people had committed at least one
Nonfatal repetition previous attempt. Also in this review, it is shown that it is
The strongest predictor for nonfatal repetition was a history easier to detect a nonfatal SA than a fatal one. This means
of SA, a finding reported as significant in 13 of 16 multi- that S is multifactorial, and involves not only medical but also
variate analyses and 13 of 14 univariate analyses (Table 1). philosophical aspects, eg, life is or is not worth living, and
Also significant were being a victim of a sexual abuse it is often a difficult but aware choice. The goal of a suicide
(multivariate 5/9, univariate 4/5), poor global functioning assessment is not to predict suicide, but to place a person
(multivariate 3/4, univariate 4/4), having a psychiatric along a putative risk continuum to evaluate suicidality, espe-
disorder (multivariate 5/11, univariate 6/11), undergoing cially in the period immediately following the attempt, and
psychiatric treatment (multivariate 2/7, univariate 7/8), allow for a more informed intervention. In fact, according to
depression (multivariate 3/10, univariate 8/12), anxiety (mul- Reulbach and Bleich,86 up to 45% of people who deliberately
tivariate 2/6, univariate 4/5), or alcohol abuse or dependence harm themselves leave accident and emergency departments
(multivariate 4/10, univariate 4/8). There were weaker asso- without receiving an adequate psychiatric assessment; after
ciations for having a personality disorder, repetition for young the discharge, the patients should not be lost in aftercare,
adult age, unmarried status, alcohol abuse or dependence, especially if they suffer from depression, bipolar disorder,
psychiatric morbidity or treatment, and unemployment status. or schizophrenia.86
For many variables (Caucasian ethnicity, having a criminal In fact, after adjustment for baseline demographic and
record, having any mood disorders, bad family environment, clinical characteristics and hospital differences, being
and impulsivity) there are indications for a correlation, but referred for specialist follow-up was associated with reduc-
data are very scarce. The results of analyses are in Table 1. tion in repetition rate.87
more consistently found in fatal repetition, although the 9 years. However, as most prospective studies lasted 1 year,
role of sex is not very clear. Female sex and younger age, in the risk factors for S in subsequent years may differ from
contrast with data on nonfatal SA, are not likely to predict those detected at early follow-up.
repetition. This means that once a first SA has been made
(an event more frequent in females and younger people), the Future perspectives
risk for a second attempt does not appear increased in these Further studies would ideally examine a well-defined incep-
two categories. tion cohort (ie, patients at time of first SA) identified and
Other variables, such as family environment, problem- followed prospectively. A long-term follow-up (at least
solving, and global functioning, have a positive correlation 4 years) is recommended. Standard definitions of risk and
with fatal and/or nonfatal SA repetition, but data available are prognostic factors should be determined when planning
not sufficient to identify them as “predictors” of repetition. the study. Interacting factors such as previous attempts or
Further studies are needed to confirm this correlation. selected samples should be controlled for at the planning
or the analysis stage. Some variables, like sexual child
Methodological pitfalls abuse, family environment, problem-solving, and global
Many other variables have been studied, eg, Caucasians functioning, should be included, to evaluate their role for a
commit suicide twice as frequently as other races, and Prot- repeated episode. Ideally, a study would compare different
estants are more likely to commit suicide than Catholics or ethnicities and religions and investigate the differences in
Jews.4 A nonheterosexual orientation carries an increased risk suicide repetition between immigrants and nonimmigrants.
for attempted but not for completed SAs.4 In all these cases, Sexual orientation should be investigated as well.
data on SA repetition are inconsistently reported.
Moreover, since a previous SA is the best risk factor Conclusion
for both fatal and nonfatal repetition, most findings pre- SA repetition (whether fatal or nonfatal) is a common event
sented here might not be specific to repetition. Only three in developed countries. Prediction of recurrent SA in a
studies in our group investigated the risk factors in first patient who committed a first SA is an important task for the
attempters for future attempts,38,45,78 and only one45 studied psychiatrist. However, it is hard to find independent predic-
it prospectively. tors out of all the many variables associated with repeated
According to Owens et al,7 the median proportion of and especially with S. Based on the available evidence, only
patients repeating nonfatal SA is 16% at 1 year and 23% in a previous SA, depression, sexual abuse in childhood, and
studies lasting longer than 4 years. For a subsequent suicide, personality disorders have been found to predict nonfatal SA,
after a longer follow-up, the suicide rate increases from less while previous SA and older age were found to predict fatal
than 2% at 1 year to more than 5% in studies lasting over SA. Suicidal ideation, which is one of the most consistent
211 studies
1728 submit your manuscript | www.dovepress.com Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment 2013:9
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Table 1 Summary of available factors correlated with suicidality
Variable Number of risk-factor-significant Number of risk-factor-significant Number of risk-factor-significant Number of risk-factor-significant
references in multivariate analysis references in multivariate analysis references in univariate analysis references in univariate analysis
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Global functioning 1 low/2 3 low/4 1 low/1 4 low/4
Impulsivity 1 rev/1 1/1 1 rev/1 2/2
Abbreviations: F, female; M, male; SA, suicide attempt(s); rev, reverse correlation; S, completed suicide.
1729
Risk factors for fatal and nonfatal suicide attempts
Table 2 Factors correlated with suicide attempts (SAs) and completed suicide (S)
1730
Study Year Design Number of patients Factors significantly associated with SA
Beghi et al
3
Appleby et al 1999 Case-control (S) 149 P, 149 C Care reduced, history of SA, suicidal thoughts during aftercare, most recent
admission at first illness
Asnis et al11 1993 Cross-sectional 74 repeaters, 90 first attempters No variables associated
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Batt et al12 1998 Cross-sectional 158 multirepeaters, 164 first Married status, not a student, not living alone, alcohol dependence, anxiety
repeaters, 310 first attempters
Bille-Brahe and 1994 Case-control 773 Self-poisoning, living alone, less hanging/cutting, divorced, unemployment
Jessen13
Boyes14 1994 5-year follow-up, 1,597 No differences
retrospective cohort
(male, female)
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McAuliffe et al53 2007 Cross-sectional (suicide ideation) 84 repeaters, 52 first attempters No differences
McAuliffe et al54 2008 Case-control 152 Older age, history of SA
1731
Risk factors for fatal and nonfatal suicide attempts
(Continued)
Table 2 (Continued)
1732
Study Year Design Number of patients Factors significantly associated with SA
Beghi et al
55
McEvedy 1997 Case-control 628 Married status, older age
Neeleman et al56 1998 Cross-sectional 120 natural-cause death, Adolescent emotional instability, conduct problems
36 accidental death,
Dovepress
11 suicide death
Nordentoft et al57 1993 Case-control (S) 974 Older age, living alone, history of SA, no respirator treatment
Nordstrom et al58 1995 5-year follow-up, 1,573 Male sex, older age female
prospective cohort
Ojehagen et al59 1991 Cross-sectional 46 repeaters, 33 first attempters Unemployed status, disability pension, psychiatric disorder, psychiatric treatment,
psychiatric inpatient
Ostamo and 2001 Case-control (S) 2,782 Male sex, married, widowed or divorced status, older age class
Age class ,40 years, being a newcomer, alcohol influence, suicide letter
prevent fatal and nonfatal attempts.
A large multicenter prospective investigation of first
SAs should be undertaken comparing different countries
and differing social and cultural backgrounds and settings
within each country.
Abbreviations: M, male; F, female; PTSD, posttraumatic stress disorder; CSF, cerebrospinal fluid; S, completed suicide; SA, suicide attempt(s); P, patients; C, controls; ER, emergency room.
Jennifer Covino, PhD and Countney Clabby, PhD, for their
SA: history of SA, low global functioning
help on the data collection, and Ettore Beghi, MD, for criti-
dependence, personality disorder
S: history of SA
No differences
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