Hotels Sector Analysis Report

 Tourism has now become a significant industry in India. It is a sun rise industry, an employment generator, a significant source of
foreign exchange for the country. Tourism in India is the third largest foreign exchange earner of the country. The booming tourism
industry has had a cascading effect on the hospitality sector with an increase in the occupancy ratios and average room rates.
 As per world travel and tourism Council (WTTC), India is one of the favorite tourist destinations from the year 2009 and will continue to
be one of the favorite till 2018. Further, the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report by World Economic Forum, has ranked India
at the sixth place in tourism and hospitality.
 The tourism and hospitality sector is among the top 10 sectors in India to attract the highest Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).
According to the data released by Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the hotel and tourism sector attracted around
US$ 9.2 billion of FDI between April 2000 and March 2016.
 The Indian government has also taken several steps to make India a global tourism hub. The government has initiated ‘Project
Mausam’ under which it has proposed to establish cross cultural linkages and to revive historic maritime cultural and economic ties
with 39 Indian Ocean countries. Further, the government plans to cover 150 countries under e-visa scheme by the end of the year. The
government has also introduced e-Tourist Visa (e-TV) for 150 countries as against the earlier coverage of 113 countries (source:
Ministry of Tourism).
 The hotel industry in India thrives largely due to the growth in tourism and travel. Due to the increase in tourism with rising foreign and
domestic tourists, hotel sector is bound to grow. There is an emergence of budget hotels in India to cater to the majority of the
population who seek affordable stay. International companies are also increasingly looking at setting up such hotels. Imbalance in
increase in tourists both domestic and foreign not been supported with equal number of rooms is a latent source of opportunity for
growth.

HOW TO RESEARCH THE HOTELS SECTOR (KEY POINTS)

 Supply
 It is expected that the hotels industry is expected to fall short of meeting the long term demands of an economy growing at 7-9% p.a. Regarding the
supply from foreign nations, around 40 international brands are said to enter the country in the next five years (as per Cygnus estimates).
 Demand
 Largely depends on business travelers but tourist traffic is also on the rise. Also, there is seen an increasing demand for medical tourism. Demand
normally spurts in the peak season between November and March.
 Barriers to entry
 Economic risks, high capital costs, competition in the industry, poor infrastructure facilities and scarcity of land.
 Bargaining power of suppliers
 Limited due to higher competition, especially in metros.
 Bargaining power of customers
 Higher in metros due to increasing room supply.
 Competition
 Intense in metros, slowly picking up in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Competition has picked up due to the entry of foreign hotel chains. Also, there is an
increasing competition from the startups/online industry due to the increasing penetration of the internet.

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FINANCIAL YEAR '16

 The international travel and tourism industry continues to be one of the largest global industries and a major engine of economic
growth. At present, 1 in every 11 people worldwide are employed by the tourism sector, with the industry generating US$ 7.2 trillion or
9.8% of the global GDP in 2015.
 After facing strong headwinds from an adverse demand environment, there was noted a subtle yet evident recovery in hotels business
in Indian during FY16. This was seen as the pace of room addition slowed down and domestic demand stood supportive.
 As per a report by World Economic Forum (WEF), India was ranked 12th in the Asia Pacific region and 55thoverall in the list of the
world’s attractive destinations. Further, the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report by World Economic Forum, has ranked India
at the sixth place in tourism and hospitality.
 As per the most recent data, Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in India increased 11.8% YoY to 6,70,000 tourists in August 2016.
Further, Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs) from tourism increased 13.1% YoY to Rs 129 billion in August 2016 (source: Ministry of
Tourism).
 As per the Ministry of Tourism, the number of tourists arriving on e-Tourist Visa (e-TV) during the month of August 2016 reached a
total of 66,097 tourists. This meant a growth of 196.6% on a YoY basis. The growth here was attributable to the introduction of e-TV for
150 countries from 113 countries earlier.
 Domestic travel spending also witnessed impetus, attributing 82.5% to the direct Travel & Tourism GDP. The appreciation of the US
dollar has made international travel unattractive to many who are now seeking to travel within the country for holidays.
 FY16 also saw the first Incredible India Tourism Investment Summit 2016. The event was organised from September 21-23, 2016. The
summit witnessed signing of 86 Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) worth around Rs 150 billion for the development of tourism and
hospitality projects.
 The 2016-17 Union Budget allocated Rs 15.9 billion to infrastructural development and promotion which is a 70% hike over the
previous year.

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PROSPECTS

 In the long term, the demand-supply gap in India is very real and that there is need for more hotels. The shortage is especially true
within the budget hotels and the mid-market hotels segment. There is an urgent need for budget and mid-market hotels in the country
as travelers look for safe and affordable accommodation. Various domestic and international brands have made significant inroads into
this space and more are expected to follow as the potential for this segment of hotels becomes more obvious.
 As per a report by ICRA, the domestic hotel industry is estimated to touch US$ 1.8 billion by 2016, from US$ 0.8 billion presently. The
growth is expected to come from the rise in online bookings. Hotel bookings is one of the least penetrated segments in the travel
categories in India. Online bookings account for 16% of the hotel bookings currently and is expected to grow to 25% in 2016. It is
estimated that 8.4 million Indians are likely to book hotels online by 2016, up from 3.5 million in 2014.
 With a rise in online competition, popular models have come up with online travel agents (OTAs) offering a single marketplace for all
travel-related needs. There are also seen meta search engines like TripAdvisor and MakeMyTrip, that operate like travel discovery
platforms. Further, online accommodation reservation services like Oyo Rooms have gained popularity. Apart from this, branded hotels
are seen operating direct bookings through their websites.
 Apart from the above, the Indian government has realised the country's potential in the tourism industry and has taken several steps to
make India a global tourism hub. The “Clean India” campaign and development of inland waterways for transport and tourism are
projects that have gained momentum over the previous year. Additionally, programmes such as “Make in India” and the “Smart Cities”
initiative have highlighted the Government’s support to skill development and investments in Hospitality and Tourism.
 Apart from the above initiatives, the government has proactively sought foreign investment from countries such as China, the United
States and Japan, leading to an increase of business related travel to the country.
 It should be noted that that the base for tourism in India is still very low. The spurt in demand for hotel accommodation over the last
few years has inflated hotel rooms in the country. However, a number of international brands across all hotel segments are planning to
or have recently entered the Indian market. Furthermore, domestic hotel chains, too, are embarking on strong expansion and
development plans across all hotel segments.

1. Labor & Skills Shortages:

Growing shortage of qualified & skilled employees

2. Construction Costs:

Escalation of construction &renovation costs

3. Technology:

Lightening speed of changes – keeping up

4. Changing Demographics & Their Impact on Travel Trends:

Shift in baby-boomers to gen X

5. Future of Hotel Profits:

Balancing escalating expenses with the need to increase rates

6. Branding:

Mitigating consumer confusion over brand proliferation and investor concerns over cross brand impact
 7. Distribution Revolution:

Keeping up with rapidly changing playing field

8. Travel Restrictions:

And their impact on the travel industry

9. Global Emerging Markets:

Are travel patterns changing

10. Capital Availability:

Will investor and lender confidence continue

At the recent ISHC Annual Conference held in Miami, Florida, ISHC members participated in a series of roundtable discussions to identify the ISHC Top Ten Issues in the

Hospitality Industry for 2007.

This year the debate included in-depth discussions on over 100 different issues with 27 making the ballot for the final vote by the members. Ultimately, the following Top Ten

Issues were identified as ones that can be expected to potentially have the greatest impact on the industry in 2007.

#1 ISHC Top Ten Issue

LABOR & SKILLS SHORTAGE

The problem of attracting and retaining qualified workers, once an issue only in an isolated number of markets, is increasingly becoming a global challenge.. Demography, wage

levels, failure to adequately address worker satisfaction and a reputation for long hours and low pay are all cited as contributing factors. Creative hospitality professionals have

begun to develop innovative strategies for capturing and keeping high quality workers.

Why can’t we find good people? It’s become a global concern, the number one issue confronting our industry. Here are some of the causes:

Demographics – Population growth rates have been slowing in Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere for decades so the number of workers leaving the workforce now exceeds those that

are entering. The aging workforce moving into retirement is creating a huge void that can only be expected to grow larger going forward.

Lagging Wage Rates. Long criticized for paying salaries and wages below those common in other industries, hospitality companies are increasingly finding it difficult to attract

and retain qualified candidates willing to attract standard wages.

Industry Reputation - Like it or not, the hospitality industry has not done enough to earn a reputation as a top career choice for college graduates. Notorious for long hours, night

and weekend shifts our industry has Gen-X’ers and Gen-Y’ers seeking other careers with a perceived higher quality of life and better wages.
De-emphasis on Training and Worker Satisfaction – Following the worldwide dip in demand that followed 9/11, many hotel companies failed to fully restore training and worker

enrichment programs that marked the 1980s and 90s. This comes at a time when lodging brands are increasingly adding amenities and services in order to differentiate themselves

from competitors.

What can we do about it? As an industry, we need to work together to develop strategies for rethinking and rehabilitating our industry’s image as an exciting and rewarding career

choice. There was a time not too long ago when people joined the hospitality industry for its glamour. Globally, we need to share best practices for training and retention and make

industry sponsored educational programs more readily available to employees at every organizational level. Industry organizations including the International Hotel and Restaurant

Association and the American Hotel and Lodging Association Educational Institute provide excellent training libraries as well as web based training programs. Additionally, there

are some outstanding independent firms that specialize in human resource training and development—some of which also offer excellent proprietary training materials.

Meanwhile, following are some thoughts to share regarding potential opportunities for hotels to meet the labor challenge?

 Grow Your Own. Hotel companies need to develop internal programs to create attractive career paths so that potential candidates see employment as a professional

development opportunity with real potential for advancement. Recruiting for entry level positions is easier when the recruiter can outline a career path and can point

to managers who have worked their way up from line positions. Marriott has been doing this better than anyone for decades.

 Guest Workers. The U.S. and many other nations offer guest worker programs that can provide seasonal workers for up to ten months. One well-known US resort

brings over two hundred workers from Jamaica each spring to fill various positions under the U.S. H-2B Visa program. These individuals stay through the “resort

season”, with many returning year after year. Similarly, Disney uses the J-1 Visa program to bring young college graduates from all over the world for 18-month

internships in entry level supervisory and guest contact positions at its US hotels and theme parks.

 Pay for Productivity. Hospitality is a labor intensive business and automation opportunities are often limited. Reconfiguring work process and then sharing the

benefits of increased productivity can have positive results. One hotel General Manager provides a cash bonus split among the workers in his hotel’s laundry

department for reaching a monthly productivity goal calculated in pounds processed per labor hour. At another hotel Room Attendants are offered a menu of options

to receive additional pay for increased productivity so long as strict quality guidelines are met.

 Job Enlargement. Cross-training and cross-utilization aren’t new concepts, but they’re good ones. One hotel company of note has a certification program for all its

employees. Employees are expected to master the skills for their own positions, but receive pay raises when they’ve become certified in other jobs. These multi-

talented employees can fill in where needed in peak times and have their own horizons broadened through cross departmental training.

In today’s environment, operators are increasingly finding they must compete for workers as hard as they compete for customers. Developing a positive work environment with

real opportunities for advancement, combined with creative strategies for recruiting and improving employee productivity will all be increasingly essential skills as the workforce

continues to shrink in the foreseeable future.

CONSTRUCTION COSTS

All construction costs and the costs for furnishings, fixtures and equipment (FF&E) will continue to escalate in 2007, although at a pace a little slower than experienced in the

period from 2004 through 2006. According to the Associated General Contractors of America, construction costs, driven primarily by materials costs, spiked dramatically in 2004.

The annual increase for construction materials in general was approximately 10 percent in 2004, followed by 6.0- percent and 8.8-percent increases in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

This compares to increases of 3.8 percent in the consumer price index and 3.7 percent in the producer price index for the period from August 2005 to August 2006. In 2004 and

2005, these two latter indices experienced annual increases averaging about 4.0 percent.

The outlook for the future is for more of the same, although at a somewhat slower pace. For example, steel prices experienced a 48.8-percent increase in 2004, which was preceded

by significant increases in scrap iron and steel prices in 2002 and 2003. Steel prices held steady in 2005 but jumped again in 2006. They are expected to increase again in 2007 and

beyond as demand for steel from construction projects in China and India increases. Scrap iron and steel prices have increased approximately 20 percent in the past twelve months.

Other important factors contributing to the increases in construction costs include the cost of diesel fuel used for transportation of both raw and finished goods. Some relief has

occurred recently, with fuel costs dropping in tandem with crude oil prices have dropped. But uncertainties of supply in crude oil markets and the somewhat tenuous situation in

OPEC nations both economically and politically indicate continuing volatility in future pricing. Further, winter temperatures in 2006-07 could alter the balance between diesel and

heating oil production, causing a price escalation in one or both of these fuels.

Concrete prices are expected to continue to increase spurred by the ongoing increases in cement, aggregate and the fuel necessary to mine or extract these components. The recent

downturn in the residential construction industry may moderate concrete price increases, but the impact of ongoing construction in China and India may more than offset these

influences.

The anticipated increase in the number of hotels currently in the development pipeline will certainly be affected by construction cost increases. Clearly, rising costs will have an

impact on budgeting for new development or renovation projects. Construction contractors, particularly smaller ones, may not be able to offer guaranteed-maximum construction

contracts, because they may not have the purchasing power to secure materials at favorable or fixed prices. Even the larger contractors are likely to hedge their contract quotes with

provisions that shift the risk of increasing materials costs to the developer. This will affect every aspect of a construction project, particularly the scheduling of sub-contractors and

deliveries of materials. Developers will be eager to adhere to a tight project schedule, while contractors will often be at the mercy of the materials suppliers as well as the

availability of materials themselves.

Faced with this situation, what can a developer or owner do to protect its interests? The following strategies may provide some ideas for further consideration and even innovation:

 Increase the use of pre-fabricated components in new construction; this may accelerate the overall development timeline;

 Evaluate materials specifications carefully to ensure the most appropriate and cost-effective materials are being used;
  Ensure that construction project management is fully qualified and up to speed on new developments in the materials supply arena;

 Value engineer the project’s design and specifications thoroughly, and then do it again;

 Ensure design standards and space programming make maximum use of as much building area as possible for revenue-producing activities.

By constantly monitoring changes in the markets for both construction materials and labor costs, and planning projects with extreme care, a developer or owner can protect its

interests and ensure that a project has a better-than-even chance of being completed on time and on budget.

# 3 ISHC Top Ten Issue

TECHNOLOGY

Despite a growing awareness of the value of modern, integrated systems, many properties still do not take advantage of them as fully as they might to maximize revenue

opportunities. Many also fail to support and secure them to the extent appropriate to the value of their data and to the legal consequences of that data becoming stolen or corrupted.

A significant factor restricting wider adoption is the challenge of improving the systems’ ease of use as they continue to grow in functionality, in both operational and guest-facing

areas. All of these issues support a trend to outsourcing the more complex operational functions and system security to expert, central staff, either corporate or third party.

The major factors involved are:

 the complexity of the hotel environment, which historically has required many different systems to interact with each other,

 a lack of awareness of how much efficiency could be improved through the use of modern integrated systems,

 a historic preference for investing funds in FF&E rather than in the systems themselves or in regular training for their users, and

 the difficulty of providing comprehensive, expert technical support at the individual property level for the multiple systems used there.

Hospitality management systems have evolved into sophisticated, well integrated, multi-discipline tools capable of helping properties of all types and sizes attract more guests,

generate more revenue and reach much-improved levels of efficiency. Years of development in expanding the capabilities of individual systems, together with improvements in

both interface technology and vendor cooperation, have produced far more comprehensive and better-integrated systems that can now cover virtually all areas of even a complex

resort property or a multi-property chain. This brings obvious benefits from having more complete and accurate data, both operationally and in regard to guests’ profile and history

information.

However, many properties handicap themselves through hanging on to systems well past their competitively useful life, greatly restricting their ability to implement such revenue-

enhancing measures as taking Internet reservations, performing effective rate/revenue management, collecting more detailed guest data for customer relationship management and

targeted marketing, and so on. Sometimes this comes from a lack of appreciation of their potential upside, but there is also often apprehension about the difficulty of integrating
older but still valuable systems into a more modern, integrated whole. Current interface technologies go a long way to alleviating this issue, but many properties have found that

the benefits from replacing valued older systems with a more comprehensive, integrated system outweigh the possible loss of some minor functionality.

Another factor discouraging upgrades is that the more comprehensive systems can seem challenging to use. Certainly good user interface design, as much an art as a science, is

something vendors continue to pursue through better data layouts, property-specific screen customizations, the subtle use of color and differing fonts to guide users through the

logical sequence of operations, and so on. This is likely to be a continuing challenge in both guest and operations technology. Check-in kiosks and guestroom technology, for

example, must be as intuitive to use as possible, for a wide range of guest ages and technical familiarity.

Nevertheless, as far as hotel-management systems are concerned the disadvantages of an unintuitive user interface can be overcome through user training, yet many hotels

handicap their users by not providing refresher training on at least an annual basis. In an industry with traditionally high staff turnover this virtually guarantees that the systems

won’t be used effectively, hindering the property from realizing the full return on its investment and maximizing its revenue.

Further, as systems become more comprehensive and wide-ranging their support and security management become both more complex and more essential. Loss of access to the

system through hardware, software or network failure is completely disruptive since equivalent manual procedures are now virtually impossible to implement quickly. It is very

difficult for an individual property to afford in-house technical support personnel trained in all the systems it uses, yet many properties do not have support agreements with third

party vendors that might pro-actively prevent imminent problems.

More importantly, guest profile data is becoming an increasingly attractive target for identity theft, and attacks on computer systems containing it are becoming more focused and

more sophisticated. In addition, legislation such as Sarbanes-Oxley holds corporate officers personally accountable for the accuracy of their financial data. Despite these factors,

many systems do not provide audit trails of which user changed key configuration parameters. Further, although all systems track the user ID responsible for changes to guest data,

many hotels fail to enforce control over the sharing of IDs and passwords among users, making it impossible to know who entered or modified specific data – or sometimes even

just who’s signed on to the network.

All of these factors encourage the movement towards more professional systems management; either from a corporate resource team shared among many properties or contracted

out to a professional third party. Centralized revenue management teams, for example, can provide expert help to multiple properties in a regionally cohesive way. Centrally-hosted

systems allow for highly-qualified technicians to provide a far more secure and managed systems environment than would be available to an individual property. This trend is

expected to continue as awareness grows of the value of keeping systems operating at peak efficiency, and of the potential damage from security breaches.