Lecture 4B Precipitation
Lecture 4B Precipitation
Lecture 4B Precipitation
14
12
10
Precipitation 8
6 Series 3
Series 2
Lecture Series 4B 4
Series 1
2
0
This is used to show daily,
weekly, monthly or annual
rainfall which are plotted
with a moving mean.
14
12
10 The annual precipitation data for the PAGASA station in Nueva Vizcaya for the period 1975-
8 2010.
a.) Plot the annual precipitation as a time series.
6 Series 3 b.) Compute the 36-year mean annual precipitation.
4 c.) Compute the 5-year moving mean and plot it at the end of the period.
Series 2
2 d.) Identify any drought and wet periods.
Series 1 e.) Find the highest and lowest annual precipitation. Compute the ratio of
0
these extremes to the long-term mean.
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
some of the random x1 x2 ... xn x2 x3 ... xn1 x3 x4 ... xn 2 1981 15.46 1993 20.18 2005 20.18
, , 1982 24.76 1994 43.88 2006 27.98
variations of the variables. n n n 1983 25.34 1995 31.38 2007 36.24
1984 18.32 1996 49.02 2008 32.60
where, n can be any value but precipitation 1985 17.94 1997 25.02 2009 26.76
1986 22.54 1998 24.96 2010 28.12
are often analyzed with a 5-year moving
mean of the annual precipitation.
15.00 1058.30
P 36
1975
1976
1977
1978
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1979
1998
36
Time (Year)
P 36 29.40cm
1
2/15/2011
Annual Annual
Annual Precipitation as a Time Series Precipitation 5-year Precipitation 5-year
Year (cm) 5-year Total Mean Year (cm) 5-year Total Mean
and 36-year Mean 1975 33.34 1993 20.18 155.32 31.06
50.00 1976 25.20 1994 43.88 179.84 35.97
1977 40.42 1995 31.38 181.14 36.23
45.00 1978 40.42 1996 49.02 186.02 37.20
1979 29.96 169.34 33.87 1997 25.02 169.48 33.90
40.00 1980 36.66 172.66 34.53 1998 24.96 174.26 34.85
Precipitation (cm)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1979
1998
169.34
5 yMean 33.87
5
Annual Precipitation as a Time Series, 36-year Mean Annual Precipitation as a Time Series, 36-year Mean
and 5-year Moving Mean and 5-year Moving Mean
50.00
50.00 Wet Period Drought Period Drought Period
?-1982 1982-1991 2003-2009
45.00
45.00
40.00
40.00
Precipitation (cm)
Precipitation (cm)
35.00
35.00
30.00
30.00
25.00
25.00
20.00
20.00 Wet Period
1991-2003
15.00
15.00
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1985
2004
1975
1976
1977
1978
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1979
1998
Time (Year)
Time (Year)
Note: During a wet period, 5-yr moving-mean line is always above the long-term mean. During a drought
period, 5-yr moving-mean line is always below the long-term mean.
40.00
Precipitation (cm)
35.00
If daily rainfall records indicate that the rainfall occurred for two or more successive
30.00
days, the probable maximum depth (PMD) of rain that falls in any 24-h period
25.00
during that storm should be determined by adding to the maximum recorded total
of daily rainfall one-half of the next larger total that falls on either the preceding or
20.00
Wet Period
succeeding day and so on longer storms.
1991-2003
15.00
Suppose that Typhoon Basyang produced the daily totals for three successive days: 1.20cm, 2.75cm and
1975
1976
1977
1978
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1979
1998
2
2/15/2011
The amount of precipitation falling at a point depends on the following factors: Procedure
From precipitation records, maximum rainfall of this duration is noted.
a.) Intensity – the rate of precipitation or measure of quantity of rain falling in a This is the maximum incremental rainfall (difference between
given time (mm per hour). accumulated precipitation values) for the selected duration (5 mins). For
partial duration series, all values in the record that exceed a level given
b.) Duration – time limit within which the precipitation takes place. by the excessive precipitation are noted. Excessive precipitation is a
rainfall that falls at a rate equalling or exceeding by:
c.) Frequency – expectation that a given depth of rainfall will fall in a given time.
d.) Area – geographic extent over which a point’s rainfall can be held to apply. t 20
P
100
Arranged the values in descending order and For partial duration series, the following conversion factors are
return period is obtained by: applied:
Procedure Procedure
Return Period (Years) Adjustment Factor
n 1
T 2 0.88
m 5 0.96
10 0.99
where m is the rank of event and n is the total number of years
of data in the record.
>10 1.0
Similar analyses are carried out for other Precipitation depths are converted to
selected durations. intensities by:
Procedure Procedure 60 P
i
t
For each frequency level,
precipitation are plotted against
different duration. These are the Intensities are plotted against
depth-duration-frequency curves. duration as intensity-duration-
frequency curve.
3
2/15/2011
For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table, For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table,
prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year
frequencies. frequencies.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Precipitation Precipitation
Rank Return Period Rank Return Period
Duration Duration
m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m
1 0.40 0.66 0.89 1.07 1.48 2.15 23.0 1 0.40 0.66 0.89 1.07 1.48 2.15 23.0
Interpolate depths for 20-
2 0.38 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.29 1.92 11.5 0.395 20
year frequency
3 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.91 1.26 1.48 7.7 2 0.38 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.29 1.92 11.5
4 0.36 0.60 0.76 0.86 0.91 1.06 5.8 3 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.91 1.26 1.48 7.7
5 0.35 0.60 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.96 4.6 4 0.36 0.60 0.76 0.86 0.91 1.06 5.8
6 0.33 0.58 0.72 0.77 0.82 0.94 3.8 5 0.35 0.60 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.96 4.6
7 0.33 0.50 0.72 0.77 0.78 0.90 3.3 6 0.33 0.58 0.72 0.77 0.82 0.94 3.8
8 0.31 0.50 0.63 0.70 0.75 0.87 2.9 7 0.33 0.50 0.72 0.77 0.78 0.90 3.3
9 0.30 0.49 0.57 0.65 0.67 0.77 2.6 8 0.31 0.50 0.63 0.70 0.75 0.87 2.9
10 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.75 2.3 9 0.30 0.49 0.57 0.65 0.67 0.77 2.6
. 10 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.75 2.3
.
.
22 0.13 0.23 0.32 0.40 0.43 0.43 1.0
For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table, For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table,
prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year
frequencies. frequencies.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Precipitation Precipitation
Rank Return Period Rank Return Period
Duration Duration
m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m
1 0.40 0.66 0.89 1.07 1.48 2.15 23.0 1 0.40 0.66 0.89 1.07 1.48 2.15 23.0
Interpolate depths for 20-
0.395 0.652 0.874 1.044 1.430 2.090 20 0.395 0.652 0.874 1.044 1.430 2.090 20
year frequency
2 0.38 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.29 1.92 11.5 2 0.38 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.29 1.92 11.5
Interpolate depths for 10-
3 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.91 1.26 1.48 7.7 10
year frequency
4 0.36 0.60 0.76 0.86 0.91 1.06 5.8 3 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.91 1.26 1.48 7.7
5 0.35 0.60 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.96 4.6 4 0.36 0.60 0.76 0.86 0.91 1.06 5.8
6 0.33 0.58 0.72 0.77 0.82 0.94 3.8 5 0.35 0.60 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.96 4.6
7 0.33 0.50 0.72 0.77 0.78 0.90 3.3 6 0.33 0.58 0.72 0.77 0.82 0.94 3.8
8 0.31 0.50 0.63 0.70 0.75 0.87 2.9 7 0.33 0.50 0.72 0.77 0.78 0.90 3.3
9 0.30 0.49 0.57 0.65 0.67 0.77 2.6 8 0.31 0.50 0.63 0.70 0.75 0.87 2.9
10 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.75 2.3 9 0.30 0.49 0.57 0.65 0.67 0.77 2.6
10 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.75 2.3
For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table, For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table,
prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year
frequencies. frequencies.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Precipitation Precipitation
Rank Return Period Rank Return Period
Duration Duration
m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m
1 0.40 0.66 0.89 1.07 1.48 2.15 23.0 0.395 0.652 0.874 1.044 1.430 2.090 20 Convert precipitation
0.395 0.652 0.874 1.044 1.430 2.090 20 0.376 0.626 0.814 0.946 1.278 1.746 10 depths to intensity.
2 0.38 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.29 1.92 11.5
Interpolate depths for 10-
0.376 0.626 0.814 0.946 1.278 1.746 10
year frequency
3 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.91 1.26 1.48 7.7
4 0.36 0.60 0.76 0.86 0.91 1.06 5.8
5 0.35 0.60 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.96 4.6
6 0.33 0.58 0.72 0.77 0.82 0.94 3.8
7 0.33 0.50 0.72 0.77 0.78 0.90 3.3
8 0.31 0.50 0.63 0.70 0.75 0.87 2.9
9 0.30 0.49 0.57 0.65 0.67 0.77 2.6
10 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.75 2.3
4
2/15/2011
For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table, For the precipitation data arranged for different durations as shown in the Table,
prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year
frequencies. frequencies.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Precipitation Precipitation
Rank Return Period Rank Return Period
Duration Duration
m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m
0.395 0.652 0.874 1.044 1.430 2.090 20 Convert precipitation 0.395 0.652 0.874 1.044 1.430 2.090 20 Convert precipitation
0.376 0.626 0.814 0.946 1.278 1.746 10 depths to intensity. 0.376 0.626 0.814 0.946 1.278 1.746 10 depths to intensity.
prepare the intensity-duration-frequency curves for 20-year and 10-year (Years) 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min.
20 4.74 3.91 3.50 3.13 2.86 2.09
frequencies. 10 4.51 3.76 3.26 2.84 2.56 1.75
3.5
3
Return Intensity (in/hr)
Period Duration 2.5
2m 1
3.5
3 P( P ) x100
2.5
i
60 P 2n
2 t
1.5
60 P
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 3 where, m = the rank of each precipitation
Duration in Minutes 25 n = the total number of precipitation data
20-yr Return Period 10-yr Return Period
P = i x t = 3 x 25/60 = 1.25 in
5
2/15/2011
Annual Precipitation
for Angat Watershed
Year Depth (in)
Given the annual precipitation data of Angat Watershed from 1991 to
2010. Rank the each event. Say, you have determined that more than 1991 14.60
23.4” of annual rainfall will result in a net economic loss for your 1992 21.70
crop. Predict how often this will occur. Also, compute the Return 1993 12.10
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) For Example: Period of each event. 1994 22.40
Rank
Precipitation
Return Period P = 0.37 in has m = 3 (rank) 1995 23.40
Duration 1996 13.10
m 5 min. 10 min. 15 min. 20 min. 30 min. 60 min. T=(n+1)/m
1 0.40 0.66 0.89 1.07 1.48 2.15 23.0 2(3) 1 1997 19.26
2 0.38 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.29 1.92 11.5 P( 0.37) x100 1998 32.80
3 0.37 0.62 0.79 0.91 1.26 1.48 7.7 2(22) 1999 11.20
4
5
0.36
0.35
0.60
0.60
0.76
0.73
0.86
0.80
0.91
0.83
1.06
0.96
5.8
4.6
P( 0.37) 11.36% 2000
2001
18.20
19.20
6 0.33 0.58 0.72 0.77 0.82 0.94 3.8 2002 11.61
7 0.33 0.50 0.72 0.77 0.78 0.90 3.3
2003 11.60
8 0.31 0.50 0.63 0.70 0.75 0.87 2.9
2004 12.70
9 0.30 0.49 0.57 0.65 0.67 0.77 2.6
10 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.75 2.3 2005 7.20
. 2006 8.00
. 2007 10.60
. 2008 8.20
22 0.13 0.23 0.32 0.40 0.43 0.43 1.0
2009 26.20
2010 9.50
6
2/15/2011
Annual Precipitation for Angat Watershed Annual Precipitation for Angat Watershed
Year Depth (in) Rank P(P)
Year Depth (in) Rank P(P) Tr
1998 32.80 1 2.50
1998 32.80 1 2.50
2009 26.20 2 7.50
2009 26.20 2 7.50
1995 23.40 3 12.50
1995 23.40 3 12.50
1994 22.40 4 17.50
1994 22.40 4 17.50
1992 21.70 5 22.50
1992 21.70 5 22.50
1997 19.26 6 27.50
1997 19.26 6 27.50
2001 19.20 7 32.50
2001 19.20 7 32.50
2000 18.20 8 37.50
2000 18.20 8 37.50
1991 14.60 9 42.50 Compute Probability of Occurrence. Compute the Return Period.
1991 14.60 9 42.50
1996 13.10 10 47.50 1996 13.10 10 47.50
2004 12.70 11 52.50 2004 12.70 11 52.50
1993 12.10 12 57.50
2m 1 1993 12.10 12 57.50
T( r )
1
2002 11.61 13 62.50 P( P ) x100 2002 11.61 13 62.50 x100
2003 11.60 14 67.50 2n 2003 11.60 14 67.50 P( P )
1999 11.20 15 72.50 1999 11.20 15 72.50
2007 10.60 16 77.50 2007 10.60 16 77.50
2010 9.50 17 82.50 2010 9.50 17 82.50
2008 8.20 18 87.50 2008 8.20 18 87.50
2006 8.00 19 92.50 2006 8.00 19 92.50
2005 7.20 20 97.50 2005 7.20 20 97.50
7
2/15/2011
8
2/15/2011
9
2/15/2011
10