Consolidated Income Statements Actuals Estimates Period Ending December 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 Current Case - Case A (Street) Case
Consolidated Income Statements Actuals Estimates Period Ending December 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 Current Case - Case A (Street) Case
Consolidated Income Statements Actuals Estimates Period Ending December 31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 Current Case - Case A (Street) Case
(in US$ thousands except shares & per share amounts) Actuals Es
Case A (Street)
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 0.0% 1.0% 1.9% -3.2%
COGS as a % of revenue 73.8% 72.7% 73.2% 73.5%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 19.8% 20.8% 20.6% 21.5%
Case B (Downside)
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 0.0% 1.0% 1.9% -5.0%
COGS as a % of revenue 73.8% 72.7% 73.2% 73.5%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 19.8% 20.8% 20.6% 21.5%
Case C (Upside)
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 0.0% 1.0% 1.9% 1.0%
COGS as a % of revenue 73.8% 72.7% 73.2% 73.2%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 19.8% 20.8% 20.6% 20.6%
Case C (LBO)
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 0.0% 1.0% 1.9% 1.0%
COGS as a % of revenue 73.8% 72.7% 73.2% 73.0%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 19.8% 20.8% 20.6% 20.2%
Estimates
For the fiscal year ended March 3, 2012 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013
Revenue $49,243.0 $49,747.0 $50,705.0 49,082.4
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 1% 2% -3%
Cost of goods sold 36,363.0 36,190.0 37,130.0 36,075.6
COGS as a % of revenue 74% 73% 73% 74%
Gross profit $12,880.0 $13,557.0 $13,575.0 $13,006.8
Gross profit margin (%) 26% 27% 27% 27%
Operating expenses
Selling, general and administrative 9,755.0 10,325.0 10,451.0 10,552.7
SG&A as a % of revenue 19.8% 20.8% 20.6% 21.5%
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total operating expenses 9,755.0 10,325.0 10,451.0 10,552.7
Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 3,125.0 3,232.0 3,124.0 2,454.1
EBITDA margin (%) 6.3% 6.5% 6.2% 5.0%
Depreciation 838.0 896.0 897.0 905.2
Amortization 88.0 82.0 48.0 46.5
Adjusted EBIT 2,199.0 2,254.0 2,179.0 1,502.4
EBIT margin (%) 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.1%
Operating income (GAAP) 2,368.0 2,374.0 1,085.0 0.0
Interest
Interest expense 92.0 86.0 134.0 76.7
Interest income (53.0) (43.0) (37.0) (0.3)
Gain on sale of investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net interest expense 39.0 43.0 97.0 76.4
Income before tax (IBT) 2,160.0 2,211.0 2,082.0 1,426.0
IBT margin (%) 4% 4% 4% 3%
Income tax expense 836.0 781.0 705.0 482.9
All-in effective tax rate (%) 39% 35% 34% 34%
Net income from continuing ops 1,324.0 1,430.0 1,377.0 943.1
Non-recurring events
Restructuring charges - COGS 31.9 5.8 12.0 0.0
Restructuring charges 0.0 86.9 25.8 0.0
Best Buy Europe transaction costs - SG&A 0.0 0.0 30.4 0.0
Goodwill impairment 0.0 0.0 1,180.0 0.0
Gain on sale of investments 0.0 0.0 48.0 0.0
Restructuring charges NCI 0.0 0.0 (4.0) 0.0
Best Buy Europe transaction costs - NCI 0.0 0.0 (13.0) 0.0
BBYM profit share buyout - NCI 0.0 0.0 1,303.0 0.0
Discontinued operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Restructuring charges - COGS 0.0 10.0 8.0 0.0
Restructuring charges 0.0 44.0 178.0 0.0
Restructuring charges NCI 0.0 0.0 (85.0) 0.0
Total non-recurring events 31.9 146.8 2,683.2 0.0
Net income 1,292.1 1,283.2 1,306.2 943.1
Dividend payout (234.0) (237.0) (228.0) (141.5)
% of net income 18.1% 18.5% 17.5% 15.0%
Per share dividend 0.55 0.57 0.62 0.39
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA:
Cash flow before debt paydown
Estimates
For the fiscal year ended March 3, 2012 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 2014
Current assets
Trade accounts receivable 2,348.0 2,288.0 2,243.8 2,198.9
Days receivable 17.0 16.5 16.5 16.5
Inventories 5897.0 5731.0 5,648.9 5,543.4
Inventory turnover days 58.7 56.4 56.4 56.4
Other current assets 1,103.0 1,079.0 1,044.5 1,023.6
% of revenue 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Total current assets 9,348.0 9,098.0 8,937.2 8,766.0
Current liabilities
Accounts payable 4,894.0 5,364.0 4,983.3 4,890.3
Days payable 48.7 49.7 49.7 49.7
Gift card libilities 474.0 456.0 450.1 441.1
Days payable 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3
Accrued compensation 570.0 539.0 559.9 551.3
Days payable 19.9 19.1 19.1 19.1
Accrued liabilities 1,471.0 1,685.0 1,593.4 1,568.8
Days payable 51.3 54.4 54.4 54.4
Total current liabilities 7,409.0 8,044.0 7,586.7 7,451.4
For the fiscal year ended March 3, 2012 2010A 2011A 2012A
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 1,103.0 1,199.0
Trade accounts receivable 2,348.0 2,288.0
Short term investments 22.0 0.0
Inventories 5,897.0 5,731.0
Other current assets 1,103.0 1,079.0
Total current assets 10,473.0 10,297.0
Property, plant and equipment, net 3,823.0 3,471.0
Goodwill 2,454.0 1,335.0
Acquired identifiable amortizable intangible assets, net of accum. amort. 0.0 0.0
Trader names & customer relationships 336.0 359.0
Equity and other investments 328.0 140.0
Other long-term assets 435.0 403.0
Total assets 17,849.0 16,005.0
Liabilities
Current liabilities:
Short term debt 998.0 523.0
Trade accounts payable 4,894.0 5,364.0
Unredeemed gift card liabilities 474.0 456.0
Accrued compensation 570.0 539.0
Accrued liabilities 1,471.0 1,685.0
Accrued income taxes 256.0 288.0
Other current liabilities 0.0 0.0
Total current liabilities 8,663.0 8,855.0
Long-term debt 711.0 1,685.0
Other long-term liabilities 1,183.0 1,099.0
Total liabilities 10,557.0 11,639.0
Stockholders' equity
Equity infusion + Co-Invest 0.0 0.0
Common stock par value and additional paid-in-capital 57.0 34.0
Less stock repurchased [treasury stock] 0.0 0.0
Non-controlling interests 690.0 621.0
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) 173.0 90.0
Retained earnings 6,372.0 3,621.0
Total stockholder equity 7,292.0 4,366.0
For the fiscal year ended March 3, 2012 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 2014
Property, plant & equipment on March 31, 3,471.0
Capital expenditures as of March 31, (615.0) (744.0) (766.0) 749.5 770.5
Straight line depreciation 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Years (PP&E) 4
Years (CAPEX) 20 20
Existing PP&E 867.8 867.8
2013 CAPEX 37.5 37.5
2014 CAPEX 38.5
2015 CAPEX
2016 CAPEX
2017 CAPEX
2018 CAPEX
Total book depreciation 838.0 896.0 897.0 905.2 943.7
As % of revenue 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Amortization of definite-lived intangible a 88.0 82.0 48.0 46.5 45.5
As % of revenue 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Estimates
20 20 20 20
867.8 867.8 867.8 867.8
37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5
38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0
34.7 34.7 34.7
34.2 34.2
34.2
981.7 1,016.4 1,050.6 1,084.7
2% 2% 2% 2%
44.6 43.7 44.2 44.6
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Debt Schedule
(in US$ thousands) Actuals Estimates
For the fiscal year ended March 3, 2012 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013 2014
Revolver
Debt (beginning of year) 523.0 0.0
Mandatory issuances / (retirements) 0.0 0.0
Non-mandatory issuances / (retirements) (523.0) 0.0
Debt (end of year) 523.0 0.0 0.0
Interest expense 7.8 0.0
Interest rate 3.0% 3.0%
Match? (Y/N) Y Y
Estimates
Y Y Y Y
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
(in US$ millions including shares & except per share amounts) Actuals
For the fiscal year ended March 3, 2012 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013
Terminal Value
EBITDA Method
Exit Year EBITDA 2,239.6
Multiple 2.0x
Terminal Value 4,479.2
Net Present Value 3,039.3
Perpetuity Method
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 1,022.0
Growth Rate -2.0%
Terminal Value 9,104.7
Net Present Value 6,178.0
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
Estimates
Cost of Capital:
Risk Free Rate 2.8% Stock Price $12.95
Equity Risk Premium 6.0% Diluted shares 0
Beta 1.48 Shares Outstanding 337
Cost of Equity 11.68% Equity value $4,359.8
Total debt 2,226.0
Cost of Debt 7.0% Cash -680.0
Cost of Preferred Stock 0.0% Minority interest 596.0
WACC 9.3% Enterprise value $6,501.8
Enterprise value
Share price $12.95
Shares outstanding (mm) 337
Options outstanding TSM 0
Diluted shares outstanding 337
Equity value $4,360
Calculation of Enterprise Value
Short-term debt 1,061.0
Long-term debt 1,165.0
Convertible debt 0.0
Convertible preferred 0.0
Preferred (ie. straight) 0.0
Minority interest 596.0
Less: Cash & equivalents (680.0)
Enterprise value $6,501.8
$12.95
$24 - $26
89 $30.28
$16.91
$28.51
$19.78