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    The Numbers Game - IMD Forecast For Farmers - The Hindu

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    Nitish Kumar
    The India Meteorological Department's monsoon forecast was incorrect this year, predicting near normal rains but the country experienced below normal rains. The IMD focuses too much on assigning a single number to represent the entire monsoon, but the monsoon varies greatly by region. Farmers would benefit more from localized forecasts to help with sowing and harvesting decisions.

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    The Numbers Game - IMD Forecast For Farmers - The Hindu

    Uploaded by

    Nitish Kumar
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    The India Meteorological Department's monsoon forecast was incorrect this year, predicting near normal rains but the country experienced below normal rains. The IMD focuses too much on assigning a single number to represent the entire monsoon, but the monsoon varies greatly by region. Farmers would benefit more from localized forecasts to help with sowing and harvesting decisions.

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    The Numbers Game_ IMD Forecast for Farmers - The Hindu

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    The India Meteorological Department's monsoon forecast was incorrect this year, predicting near normal rains but the country experienced below normal rains. The IMD focuses too much on assigning a single number to represent the entire monsoon, but the monsoon varies greatly by region. Farmers would benefit more from localized forecasts to help with sowing and harvesting decisions.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    12 views4 pages

    The Numbers Game - IMD Forecast For Farmers - The Hindu

    Uploaded by

    Nitish Kumar
    The India Meteorological Department's monsoon forecast was incorrect this year, predicting near normal rains but the country experienced below normal rains. The IMD focuses too much on assigning a single number to represent the entire monsoon, but the monsoon varies greatly by region. Farmers would benefit more from localized forecasts to help with sowing and harvesting decisions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
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    10/4/2017 The numbers game: IMD forecast for farmers - The Hindu

    EDITORIAL

    The numbers game: IMD forecast for farmers


    OCTOBER 03, 2017 00:02 IST
    UPDATED: OCTOBER 02, 2017 23:25 IST

    The India Meteorological Department needs to better tailor its forecast for farmers

    W ith the India Meteorological Department getting its monsoon forecast wrong this
    year, its modelling has necessarily come under the spotlight. In April, the IMD had
    predicted near normal, or 96%, rains and then upgraded the figure to 98% a couple of
    months later. These percentages refer to the proportion of rains to 89 cm, a 50-year average
    of monsoon rains. However, the country finally ended up with below normal rains (that
    is, less than 96% of the 50-year long period average). In itself, this is not a problem. Crop
    sowing is expected to be only a little less than last year, which saw a record harvest, with
    more districts posting deficient rain. Better drought management has over the years
    weakened the link between rain shortfall and food production, but the IMD continues to
    persevere with the meaningless practice of assigning a catch-all number to the quantum of
    rain expected during the monsoon. While initially conceived as a measure to bring rigour to
    the task of warning the government about a drought or weak rains, it has now become a
    numbers exercise, couched in statistical error margins and pedantic definitions, to ward off
    blame for getting its forecast wrong. While a single number, 96 or 95, has the power to
    brand rainfall as near or below normal, the IMD never admits to being in error. It relies
    on the security of generous error margins. Thus, a 98% forecast, say, implies a range from
    94% to 102% and so could span below normal to above normal.

    The fallout of focussing on numbers to gauge a phenomenon as geographically and


    quantitatively varied as the Indian monsoon is that it has ripple effects of tricking
    everyone from policymakers to the stock markets that a normal monsoon implies all will
    be well with rainfall distribution. So this years floods in Mumbai, Assam and Bihar, and the
    months-long drought in Karnataka and Vidarbha were all merged under an umbrella
    number. The Indian monsoon has over the centuries stayed remarkably consistent at
    around 89 cm during the monsoon months, give or take 10%. The challenge lies in
    capturing intra-seasonal variation or forecasting a sudden change in global weather (such
    as typhoons) that can affect rainfall over specific districts. Therefore, simply getting these
    blanket four-month forecasts right doesnt really help. While more and more farmers are
    opting for crop insurance and have far greater access via mobile phones to news on
    http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/the-numbers-game/article19786542.ece 1/4
    10/4/2017 The numbers game: IMD forecast for farmers - The Hindu

    weather patterns, what they seek are localised, actionable inputs to guide them on sowing
    or harvesting decisions. The IMD is increasingly relying on supercomputers and
    sophisticated models to warn of weather changes at the district level. These localised
    estimates aim to warn of threatening weather and are operationally useful rather than
    reduce rain to numerical jugglery. The IMD must give momentum to this shift.

    Printable version | Oct 4, 2017 12:08:04 PM |


    http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/the-numbers-game/article19786542.ece

    The Hindu

    http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/the-numbers-game/article19786542.ece 2/4
    10/4/2017 The numbers game: IMD forecast for farmers - The Hindu

    http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/the-numbers-game/article19786542.ece 3/4
    10/4/2017 The numbers game: IMD forecast for farmers - The Hindu

    http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/the-numbers-game/article19786542.ece 4/4

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