Clinton 2

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.
edu>
Senttime: 07/29/201609:08:57AM
To: [email protected]
Cc: [email protected]
FW:PutinstrikesAGAINinanapparentattempttohelphispartnerinBromance:"FBIprobessuspectedBREACHofanotherDemocratic
Subject:
organizationbyRussianHACKERS,"washingtonpost,.com,7/29
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,July29,20169:08AM
To:[email protected]
Cc:[email protected]'[email protected]'
Subject:PutinstrikesAGAINinanapparentattempttohelphispartnerinBromance:"FBIprobessuspectedBREACHofanother
DemocraticorganizationbyRussianHACKERS,"washingtonpost,.com,7/29
RussiangovernmenthackershavebreachedthecomputersoftheDemocraticCongressional
CampaignCommitteeTheintrusionappearedtobecarriedoutbythesameRussianintelligence
servicethathackedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeearlierthisyearTheFBIisinvestigatingthis
breachaspartofabroaderprobeintohackingofpoliticalorganizations.TheDCCCintrusion
apparentlyispartofamuchbroadercampaignofpoliticalESPIONAGEbytheRussians.
And:MicahelCROWLEY,TRUMPandtheOLGARCH[DmitriRYBOLEVLEV]:[Trump]claimsnotiesto
Russia.Hereshowhemademillionsfromoneofitswealthiestmen,politico.edu,7/2911page
investigativearticle
And:GlennKessler,FactChecker:TrumpsclaimIhaveNOTHINGtodowithRUSSIA,
washingtonpost.com,7/28
TheTrumpOrganizationhaslongbeenintrestedinbusinessinRussiaTrumpsoldamansion[in
PalmBeach]in2008for$95milliontoRussianoligarchDmitryRybolovelev[Donald]TrumpJr.noted
thathetraveledtoRussiasixtimesin18monthsTheTrumporganizationhadpartneredwithAras
Agalarov,thesocalledTrumpofRussiaonaprojectinMoscowin2013thatdidntcometofruition
Theevidenceisclear,fromhisownwordsandthoseofhisassociatesthat[Trump]hasbeeneagerto
dobusinessinRussiaTheTrumpOrganizationsgeneralcounselalsoconfirmedthatthecompany
haslookedatdealsinRussiaWithoutaccesstoTrumpstaxreturnswhichhehasrefuseto
discloseitmaybeimpossibletotellwhetherhecurrentlyhasRussianassets.
And:Model,ultranationalistactivist,and[Putinite]StateDumacandidate[MariaKatasonova]plans
ANTICLINTONrallyoutsideUSembassyinMoscow,Meduza.io,7/28Englished.
Katasonova,whosmadevisitstoseparatistheldEasternUkraineandwrappedherselfinrebelflags,
haspublishedFacebookpostsinRussianandEnglishusingthehashtags#StopHillaryand
#CrookedHillary.
And:USWdiplomats[AmbassadorDaneilbaer,headoftheUSmissiontotheOSCE,andGeoffrey
Pyatt,USambassadortoUkraine]accuseRussiaofUNDERMININGpeaceplan,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27888327.html
And:CRIMEAhasbeenmorecompletelyabsorbedintoRussiaPESKOVannouncedon7/28thatthe
CrimeanFederalDistricthasbeenabsorbedintotheRussianSouthernFederalDistrict(gazeta.ru).

And:DariaLitvinova,PutinsgameofThrones:themeninEPAULETStakeover,
themoscowti9mes.com,7/29
And:DumadeputyDmitriiGUDKOVPutinhascarriedoutaCopdEtat:
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/dgudkov/18099954echo/
And:StanislavBELKOVSKII,Putin[now]trustsonlyhispersonalbodyguards,
http://mr7.ru/articles/136962
From: [email protected]
Senttime: 07/29/201605:27:58AM
Subject: Fwd:HasVladimirPutininterferedintheUSelection?-ABCNews(AustralianBroadcastingCorporation)
abitlate
-----OriginalMessage-----
From:RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>
To:StephenFortescue<[email protected]>
CC:KyleWilson<[email protected]>BoboLo<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>
ElizabethTeague<[email protected]>PhilipHanson<[email protected]>RodericLyne<[email protected]>
KlausSegbers<[email protected]>JulianCooper<[email protected]>SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>
RichardConnolly<[email protected]>
Sent:Wed,27Jul201613:02
Subject:Re:HasVladimirPutininterferedintheUSelection?-ABCNews(AustralianBroadcastingCorporation)
Ifonereliesoncircumstantialevidence,astheoriginalpiecedid,onecanfindawholevarietyofpeopletopointthefingerat.DalSanto
isrightaboutconspiracytheoristsandthedisadvantagesofreducingallphenomenatoasingleman.
Thewholeemailscandalseemstomegrosslyexaggerated.ItcertainlydoesntmakeClintonanylessviableasapotentialpresident.I
justwishtheDemocratscouldfindsomeonemoreconvincing.
>On27Jul2016,at12:51,StephenFortescue<[email protected]>wrote:
>
>Neo-con/Clintonianbunkum.Idoagreewithhislastsentence.
>Stephen
>
>SentfrommyiPad
>
>>On27Jul2016,at21:27,KyleWilson<[email protected]>wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>SentfrommyiPad
>>
>>Beginforwardedmessage
>>>
>>>http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-27/dal-santo-has-vladimir-putin-interfere
>>>d-in-the-us-election/7664868
>>>
>>>ThealwaysreliableMatthewDalSantohasreassuredtheAustralianpublicthatthe
>>>claimsaboutRussianhackersareallneo-conbunkum.Noworries.
>>>
Senttime: 07/29/201605:29:09AM
Subject: Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
late,sorry
From:StephenFortescue<[email protected]>
To:RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>
CC:JulianCooper<[email protected]>KyleWilson<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>Bobo
Lo<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>ElizabethTeague<[email protected]>
<[email protected]><[email protected]>RichardConnolly<[email protected]>PhilipHanson
<[email protected]>RodericLyne<[email protected]>JohnBesemeres<[email protected]>Klaus
Segbers<[email protected]>FriedErc<[email protected]>SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>DG
<[email protected]>
Sent:Wed,27Jul201612:34
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoingjustontheevidencecontainedinthevariousarticlesreferredtointhis
correspondence,butitseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotitrightregardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutinandTrump.The
evidenceisverythin-infactnonethatanyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthaveareclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,Trump'slackof
businesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggestthelackofaconnection,ratherthantheotherwayaround.Butbythesoundofithe
generallysenthissontoMoscow,somaybehewasn'teventryingveryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresentaviewoftheworldwhichisveryattractivetotheRussians,andthatthey'rehopefulthat
he'llwin.Iknownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthanabouthotelfinancing,butthatevidencedoessoundmoreconvincing,andwhy
wouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthecampaign,butonecan'thelphavingthenastyfeelingthatEstoniabeinginthe
suburbsofStPetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermightbeattractivepropositionstomorevotersthanIliketothinkabout.Has
anyoneintheUSmentioned,say,China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,oraretheymattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidentialwebsitereportofyesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,Putinissaidtohavereportedon
theforthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaandPutin'stelephoneconversationswithErdoganandNetahanyu,allinonesentenceandas
iftheywerealllinked.AmIgettingtooKremlinological,oraretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>wrote:
IdbeveryinterestedincommentsontheJoshMarshallarticle.
On26Jul2016,at09:42,JulianCooper<[email protected]>wrote:
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/thehawks%E2%80%99electionstrategypushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson[mailto:[email protected]]
Sent:26July201600:11
To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeresKlaus
SegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaiteStephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident

SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwardedmessage:
SentfrommyiPad
Date:26July2016at01:19:32AEST
To:undisclosed-recipients:
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
forwhateverit'sworth...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-really-a-thing

TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReally
aThing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,2016,4:15
PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainaboutthe
seemingbromancebetweenDonaldTrumpandRussianPresident
VladimirPutin.Moreseriously,butrelatedly,manybelieveTrumpis
anadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin'sincreasinglyautocratic
andilliberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,Trumpappearstohaveadeepfinancialdependenceon
RussianmoneyfrompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisismatchedtoa
conspicuoussolicitousnesstoRussianforeignpolicyinterestswhere
theycomeintoconflictwithUSpolicieswhichgobackdecades
throughadministrationsofbothparties.Thereisalsosomething
betweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidence
suggestingPutin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacit
alliancebetweenthetwomen.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.Ihavelongbeen
skepticalofUSeffortstoextendsecurityguaranteestocountries
withinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'nearabroad'orextendsuch
guaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnewstateswhichfor
centurieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.This
isn'tamatterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmy
beliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcostsofsuchpolicies.
InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountriesarenowpartofNATO.
Securitycommitmentshavebeenmadewhichabsolutelymustbe
kept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitmentshave
notbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothis
questionorthesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationor
coldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoney
flowingintoTrump'scoffersandheisconspicuouslysolicitousof
Russianforeignpolicypriorities.
I'lllistoffsomefacts.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhas
growndramaticallyoverthelastyear,from$350millionto$630
million.Thisisinjustoneyearwhilehisliquidassetshavealso
decreased.TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfrom
Russia,mostofwhichhasovertheyearsbecomeincreasingly
concentratedamongoligarchsandsub-garchsclosetoVladimir
Putin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashingtonPost,withone
morselforillustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershave
madenumeroustripstoMoscowinsearchofbusiness
opportunities,andtheyhavereliedonRussian
investorstobuytheirpropertiesaroundtheworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-
sectionofalotofourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,
toldarealestateconferencein2008,accordingtoan
accountpostedonthewebsiteofeTurboNews,atrade
publication.Weseealotofmoneypouringinfrom
Russia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,
oneofTrump'slargestrecentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwitha
seriesoflawsuitsinresponsetosometypicallyTrumpianeffortsto
defraudinvestorsbymakingfraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancial
healthoftheproject.Emergingoutofthatlitigationhowever
wasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfromRussiaand
Kazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthe
presenceofatwiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensiveties
totheRussiancriminalunderworld.Butthat'snotthemostsalient
partofthestory.AstheTimesputit,
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentin
TrumpSoHoandthreeotherBayrockprojectsbyan
IcelandicfirmpreferredbywealthyRussiansinfavor
withPresidentVladimirV.Putin,accordingtoa
lawsuitagainstBayrockbyoneofitsformer
executives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,was
identifiedinaBayrockinvestorpresentationasa
strategicpartner,alongwithAlexanderMashkevich,
abillionaireoncechargedinacorruptioncase
involvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseeking
businessinKazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithno
admissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplained
infusionsofcashfromaccountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Soundscompletelylegit.
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughly
adecadeagoTrumphashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefinding
sourcesofcapitalfornewinvestments.AsInotedabove,Trumphas
beenblackballedbyallmajorUSbankswiththeexceptionof
Deutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajorUS
presence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthisfinancialempirewitha
heavyrelianceoncapitalfromRussia.AtaminimumtheTrump
organizationisreceivinglotsofinvestmentcapitalfrompeopleclose
toVladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnections
toanddependenceonRussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincase
you'rekeepingscoreathome:no,that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'
whonowfunctionsascampaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafort
spentmostofthelastdecadeastopcampaignandcommunications
advisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-RussianUkrainianPrime
MinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-going
crisisandproxywarinUkraine.Yanukovychwasandremainsa
closePutinally.ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarter
Page,amanwhoseentireprofessionalcareerhasrevolvedaround
investmentsinRussiaandwhohasdeepandcontinuingfinancialand
employmenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou'renotfamiliarwithGazprom,
imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywererolledupintoa
singlecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolledbytheUSPresident
whouseditasasourceofrevenueandpatronage.ThatisGazprom's
roleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisno
exaggerationtosaythatyoucannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromatthe
veryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeenwithoutbeingwhollyin
alignmentwithPutin'spolicies.ThosetiesalsoallowPutintoput
Pageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstate
controlledmediabehindTrump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfits
apatternwithhowPutinhassoughttopropuprightist/nationalist
politiciansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirectorcovertinfusionsof
money.InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-backed
policiesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordinWestern
alignedstates.Ofcourse,TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedPutin,not
onlyintheabstractbutoftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesand
patternsofgovernmentwhichhavemostsouredhisreputation
aroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulof
developmentsthattippedmefromseeingallthisasjustapartof
Trump'slargershadinesstosomethingmorespecificandominous
abouttherelationshipbetweenPutinandTrump.AsTPM'sTierney
Sneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduringdynamicsof
GOPconventions(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)is
moremainstreamnomineesbattlingconservativeactivistsoverthe
partyplatform,withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardline
ideologicalboxesandthenomineestryingtosoftenmostorallof
thoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrumpconventionvery
different.TheTrumpCampwastotallyindifferenttotheplatform.So
partyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservative
platformsinhistory.NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimply
didn'tcare.Withonebigexception:Trump'steammobilizedthe
nominee'straditionalmixofcajolingandstrong-armingonone
point:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraineagainst
RussianmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth
(andit'snotworthmuch)IamquiteskepticalofmostRepublicans
callforaggressivelyarmingUkrainetoresistRussianaggression.But
thesingle-mindednessofthisfocusonthisoneissue-inthecontext
oftotalindifferencetoeverythingelseintheplatform-speaks
volumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaor
Putin.Itcanjustaseasilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistop
advisorshavingspentyearsworkinginPutin'sorbitandbeingaligned
withhisthinkingandagenda.Butitiscertainlynocoincidence.
Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetotheplatformand
willingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitinanywaytheywant,his
teamzeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexertmaximumforce
anditjusthappenstobetheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsof
USpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstrack
notonlywithPutin'spositionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismost
intenselyinterested.AsidefromUkraine,Trump'ssuggestionthatthe
USandthusNATOmightnotcometothedefenseofNATOmember
statesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionisacaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingand
allmannerofothermysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,
somevergingonconspiratorialintheirthinking.Iignorethemhere
becauseI'vewantedtofocusonunimpeachable,undisputedand
publiclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkandhighlytroubling
picture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEO
ofamajorAmericancorporationandtherewasthismuch
moneyflowinginTrump'sdirection,combinedwiththismuch
solicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,itwouldsetoffalarmbells
galore.Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutinisnotthe
CEOofanAmericancorporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesa
foreignstate,withanincreasinglyhostileposturetowardstheUnited
Statesandasubstantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakes
involvedinfindingout'what'sgoingon'asTrumpmightputitare
quiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountof
circumstantialevidenceforafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrump
andPutinoranon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwomen.Evenifyou
drawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancialempireisheavily
leveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfromoligarchs
andothersourcesofwealthalignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynot
somethingthatcanbewavedofforignored.
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:DonKEYSER<[email protected]>
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at8:01AM
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-putin-weaponized-
wikileaks-influence-election-american-president/130163/?
&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
HowPutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluencethe
Electionofan
AmericanPresident
EvidencesuggeststhataRussianintelligencegroupwasthe
sourceofthemostrecentWikileaksinteldump,whichwas
aimedtoinfluencetheU.S.election
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroup
backedbyRussianPresidentVladimirPutinbrokeinto
theemailsystemofamajorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroup
stolethousandsofsensitivemessagesandthenpublished
themthroughanobligingthirdpartyinawaythatwas
strategicallytimedtoinfluencetheUnitedStates
presidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,becausethats
whatjusthappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolen
fromtheDemocraticNationalCommittee.Theyreveal,
amongotherthings,thuggishinfighting,apushbya
topDNCofficialtouseBernieSandersreligious
convictionsagainsthimintheSouth,andattemptsto
strong-armmediaoutlets.Inotherwords,theyreveal
theWashingtoncampaignmonsterforwhatitis.
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaks
datadump(towhichnumerousotheroutletshave
devotedconsiderableattention)andconsiderthe
source.ConsiderableevidenceshowsthattheWikileaks
dumpwasanorchestratedactbytheRussiangovernment,
workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillaryClintons
Presidentialcampaign.
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonly
rationaletoreleasesuchdatafromtheRussian
bulletproofhostwastoempoweronecandidateagainst
another.TheColdWarisaliveandwell,Tom
Kellermann,theCEOofStrategicCyberVentures
toldDefenseOne.
Subscribe Heresthetimeline:OnJune14,
Receivedailyemailupdates: cybersecuritycompany
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. CrowdStrike,undercontractwith
theDNC,announcedinablog
Bethefirsttoreceiveupdates.
postthattwoseparateRussian
intelligencegroupshadgained
accesstotheDNCnetwork.One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gainedaccessinApril.
Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
andAPT29)firstbreachedthenetworkinthesummer
of2015.
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29
in2014andwasquicktopointoutaclearKremlin
connection.WesuspecttheRussiangovernment
sponsorsthegroupbecauseoftheorganizationsittargets
andthedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29appearedto
ceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,andtheirwork
hoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,which
containscitiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,they
wroteintheirreportonthe
group.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegroup
lookslikeithassponsorshipfromtheRussian
governmentdueinlargeparttothelevelofsophistication
behindthegroupsattacks.
Itsthesamegroup TheColdWarisaliveandwell
thathittheState TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
Department,the
WhiteHouse,and
thecivilianemailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.The
groupsmodusoperandi(aspearphishingattackthat
uploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstoolonthetargets
computer)iswellknowntocyber-securityresearchers.
Inhisblogposton
theDNCbreachesCrowdStrikesCTODmitri
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewith
bothoftheseactorsattemptingtotargetourcustomersin
thepastandknowthemwell.Infact,ourteamconsiders
themsomeofthebestadversariesoutofallthenumerous
nation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terroristgroupswe
encounteronadailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandtheextensive
usageofliving-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemto
easilybypassmanysecuritysolutionstheyencounter.
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer
2.0claimedtobetheculpritbehindthebreachand
releasedkeydocumentstobackupthe
claim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
Related:WhattheJointChiefsEmailHackTells
UsAbouttheDNCBreach
Related:TheUkrainianBlackoutandtheFuture
ofWar
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:
theseclaimsdonothingtolessenourfindingsrelatingto
theRussiangovernmentsinvolvement,portionsofwhich
wehavedocumentedforthepublicandthegreater
securitycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisand
reachedthesameconclusion.ThegroupFidelis
undertooktheirowninvestigationandfound
Crowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthe
metadataonthedocsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhis
blogpostandfoundliteralRussiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArs
Technica.Giventheevidencecombinedwith
everythingelse,Ithinkitsastrongattributiontooneof
theRussianintelligenceagencies,
@PwnAllTheThingsremarkedtoMotherboard.
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchierai
actuallyconversedwithGuccifer2.0overTwitter.The
hacker,whoclaimedtobeRomanian,answeredquestions
inshortsentencesthatwerefilledwithmistakes
accordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
AlargebodyofevidencesuggeststhatGuccifer2.0isa
smokescreenthattheactualculpritsemployedtohide
theirinvolvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationand
influenceoperations.Russianpropagandistshavebeen
caughthiringactorstoportrayvictimsofmanufactured
atrocitiesorcrimesfornewsreports(aswasthecasewhen
ViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohavebeenattackedby
SyrianrefugeesinGermanyforRussias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting
(asshowninaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMaria
Katasonovaisrevealedtobeinadarkenedroomwith
explosionsoundsplayinginthebackgroundratherthan
onabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightisswitchedon
duringtherecording),notesaRANDreportfromearlier
inJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedto
legitimizetheinformationdump,whichalsocontainsa
largeamountofpersonalinformationrelatedto
democraticdonorssuchassocialsecurityandcreditcard
numbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaksdidntperforma
thoroughanalysisofthedocumentsbeforetheyreleased
them,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformation
securityresearcherBruceSchneiercallsorganizational
doxingandthatLawfaresNicholasWeavercallsthe
weaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priorto
theDNCincident,wastheJune2015thepublicationof
severalsetsofNSArecordsrelatedtogovernment
intelligencecollectiontargets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.Thedataitself
wasnotremarkable,butitdidharmU.S.relationsand
mayhavecompromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaks
doesntseemtocarethattheyarebeingusedasaweapon
byunknownparties,insteadcallingthemselvesalibrary
ofmasseducation.Buttherestofus
should,Weaverwrites.
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinused
togreateffectlastweek.
From: ChrisBort<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/27/201609:00:19AM
To: LindaNemec<[email protected]>RobertOtto<[email protected]>
Subject: NYTimes:DonaldTrumpChallengesRussiatoFindHillaryClintonsMissingEmails
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-clinton-emails.html?smid=nytcore
-iphone-share&smprod=nytcore-iphone
Russia,ifyourelistening,Ihopeyoureabletofindthe30,000emailsthataremissing,Mr.
Trumpsaid,staringdirectlyintothecameras.SentfrommyiPhone
Senttime: 07/29/201606:25:59AM
Dagestangetsamention
From:BoboLo<[email protected]>
To:BoboLo<[email protected]>RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>JulianCooper<[email protected]>
CC:StephenFortescue<[email protected]>KlausSegbers<[email protected]>KyleWilson
<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>Elizabeth
Teague<[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]>RichardConnolly
<[email protected]>PhilipHanson<[email protected]>RodericLyne<[email protected]>John
Besemeres<[email protected]>FriedErc<[email protected]>SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>DG
<[email protected]>SiriolHugh-Jones<[email protected]>
Sent:Fri,29Jul201614:17
Uponconsultingtheinternet,IseethatYeltsinscored53.8percentofthesecond-roundvote,comparedtoZyuganov's40.3percent
(http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/ru/countries/r/russia/russia-presidential-election-1996.html).ThelatterpredictablywontheRed
Belt,andpartsofsouthernSiberia,butlostinmostotherplaces.Interestingly,helostinPrimoryeandKhabarovsk,wherethelocal
strongmenNazdratenkoandIshaevwereabletodeliverthevote,andinChechnya(militaryvote),Dagestan,andTatarstan(Shaimiev).
OnFriday,29July2016,13:53,BoboLo<[email protected]>wrote:
Dearfriends,
Theseareallfascinatingreminiscencesandinsights.
Formypart,IarrivedinMoscowasFirstSecretaryintheAustralianEmbassyafewdaysbeforetheDecember1995Dumaelections,
andlivedthroughthesix-monthpresidentialelectioncampaign.
Afewcomments,forwhatthey'reworth:
1.Yeltsin'spopularityratingincreasedfrom2-3percentinJanuary1996to,ifmemoryserves,53percentinthesecondroundofthe
presidentials(versusZyuganov's38percent).Aremarkablechangeinfortunes,tosaytheleast!
2.So,howdidhedidhedoit?Well,alltheoligarchsgotbehindhimsothattherewasamassivediscrepancyinfinancialoutreach.
Then,theelectronicmedia(controlledbyseveraloftheoligarchs)gaveblanketpositivecoveragetoYeltsin,andcorrespondingly
negativecoveragetoZyuganov.Oneparticularexamplecomestomind-thetwocandidates'respectivedancingperformances.Yeltsin
wasshownrockingandrollingonafinedayinRedSquareinfrontofayoung,enthusiasticaudiencehavingagreattime.Zyuganovwas
shownmakingadog'sdinnerofaRussianfolkdance.Hewasfilmedfromabove,sothateveryonecouldseehisbaldingpate(compared
toY'sfineheadofhair),andsweatingprofuselyfromhisarmpitsandotherorifices.Hisaudiencewasalsohiscore,clapped-outand
grumpyCommunistPartyconstituency.Thesymbolismcouldnothavebeenmorestark,andboydidtheelectronicmedialaborthe
point!
3.AfriendofminewasplayingtenniswithGusinskyaboutamonthbeforethefirstround.GusinskysaidtherewasasplitintheYeltsin
campaboutwhattodowiththepresidentialelections-whethertogoaheadwiththem,ortocancel/postponethem.The'siloviki'(I
know,notatermthatcameintofashionuntillater!)closetoYeltsin,namely,KorzhakovandSoskovets,wereallforcanningthe
electionsonthebasisthattheycouldn'triskZ.comingtopower.Chubais,however,wasstronglyoftheviewthathecoulddelivera
positiveresult,andthattosuspendtheelectoralprocesswouldbebothhighlydamagingandunnecessary.Asweknownow,hewas
abletopersuadeYeltsin.
4.Irememberatthetimethattheamountofelectoralfalsification(ballotstuffing,etc.)wasnotdeemedtobeespeciallysignificant.The
figurecirculatingwasintheorderof5percent-obviouslyimportantintheeventofaclosecontest,butnotenoughtoinfluence
proceedingsgiventhegeneralexpectationthatYeltsinwouldwinthesecondroundhandily.
5.Weretheelectionsfreeandfair?No.Infact,theformulationthenwasthattheelectionswere'free,butnotfair'.Interestingly,though,
adiplomaticcolleagueofminetoldmethathisEmbassy'slinewasthat'theelectionsshallbedeemedfair'.
6.PartofthecheatingcamefromthepretensethatYeltsinwasthisvigorous,dynamic,andforward-lookingleaderincontrasttoatired,
regressiveZyuganov.Theirony,ofcourse,isthatYeltsinwasalreadyextremelyill,andcollapsedsoonafterbeingre-elected(remember
theclassicformulation-'workingonpapers'),whereasZyuganov,regressivethoughheundoubtedlyremains,isstillverymuchwithus.
Bobo
OnFriday,29July2016,13:04,RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>wrote:
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacouple
ofZiuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?My
strongimpressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimto
win-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcomethe
responsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhedvoted.Hesaidhe
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasnt
mybusinesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklater
mumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthe
pollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassaying
thattheendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeedit
mightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenotthe
answer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hed
makesuretherewerenomoreelections.Whoknows?
AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwinaColdWar.IN
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstome
thatthelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormal
country(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.
Stephen

DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelectioninan
commentmadeataclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2107565,00.html

Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenandnow;afilial
oftheKhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstatecorporation.Alsoinvolvednowin
importsubstitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoilandgasindustry.

Julian#

From:StephenFortescue[mailto:[email protected]]
Cc:JulianCooperRodricBraithwaiteKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague
<[email protected]>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalle
DG

Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytogetyoudrunk.
Anumberofmywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.OneofthemwasthechiefengineeroftheVoronezh
MekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat'sthename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),whobecametheheadofthelocal
privatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectforChubais.Idon'tremembertalkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehe
wouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehewouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinteresting
meetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunitytodescribesomeothertime-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On28Jul2016,at22:59,prof.dr.klaussegbers<[email protected]>wrote:

atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemeberacolorful
kolkhoz).
theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationsonelectionday.
unlessyoutakeattemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversasfalsifications(icouldresistthe
worst).
talkingaboutmediaimpactisadifferentstory.
mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredislikedzyuganov,though.
also,weshouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetankinfrontofthewhitehousebut
theonelettinghisdaughterandothersgrabstuff,andlettingkorzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,
cumberezovskyietal..
themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthenationalismor
nostalgic'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'tocontinueinstitutional
reformsandintegratingthecountryintotheworld(whatwasontheagendathen,wemaycomparewith
today,havingtearsinoureyes).
klaus
Am28.07.2016um14:43schriebStephenFortescue:
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.I'vegot
onequestion,Isupposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shisreferencestothe
'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand'massiveelectoralfraud'ofthe1996elections.These
arecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatoneseeseverywherethesedays,indeedasif
theyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Istheclaimthatthecountingwassimplyfaked,and
thatifthevoteshadbeencountedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?Ifthatistheclaim,
isthereevidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotawareofit.
IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseordisbeliefin
theoutcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnothaveexpected
scepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportforYeltsinand
soon(andmaybethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').IremembertheTVcampaigns-I
rememberseeingYeltsin'sfamousdancingonstage-andthereasonablyrelentless
documentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.AsfarasIcouldtellthedocumentaries
wereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewascertainlysomethingaboutthe
timing.IalsorememberZyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethatIwas
awareofitanditscontent,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbe
moreelectorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.AndI
rememberthedealwithLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabigchunkofvotesin
thesecondround.IhavetoadmitthatIhavenomemoryofYavlinskybeingaviable
candidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnotthrough
hardcore,butthroughstraightdownthelineballotboxstuffingand
countfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
Changingthesubjecttosomeextent,thelatestfromDimitriSimes
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamericadestined
conflict16726

Julian

Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLo
carolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague<[email protected]>Richard
ConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvana
MalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaksto
InfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehowbigallthis
reallyisintheUScampaign,andwhyamIcommentingonaplaceI've
barelyevenvisitedinmylife,butiftheDemocratsarerelyingontheRussian
cardtogetthemovertheline,we'vegotabigproblemandifwethinkPutin
isthesourceofallourproblems,we'vegotanevenbiggerproblem.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at21:57,prof.dr.klaussegbers<[email protected]
berlin.de>wrote:

stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlinbutabout
politicallygiftedclownssensingopportunities.theyfeelhow
manypeopleareclue-andhelplessfacingsocialandcultural
challengesrelatedtoglobalization.theypersonalizethese
feelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),andoffering
simplified(andmostlynotviable)solutions('let'sbuildawall').
thisisthelinkbetweenputin,orban,erdogan,trump,xi
(exploitingtheanti-elitefeelingsbypromotinganti-corruption)
and,maybe,natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).

IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoing
justontheevidencecontainedinthevarious
articlesreferredtointhiscorrespondence,butit
seemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotitright
regardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutin
andTrump.Theevidenceisverythin-infact
nonethatanyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthave
areclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,Trump's
lackofbusinesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggest
thelackofaconnection,ratherthantheotherway
around.Butbythesoundofithegenerallysent
hissontoMoscow,somaybehewasn'teven
tryingveryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresenta
viewoftheworldwhichisveryattractivetothe
Russians,andthatthey'rehopefulthathe'llwin.I
knownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthanabout
hotelfinancing,butthatevidencedoessoundmore
convincing,andwhywouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthe
campaign,butonecan'thelphavingthenasty
feelingthatEstoniabeinginthesuburbsofSt
PetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermightbe
attractivepropositionstomorevotersthanIliketo
thinkabout.HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,
say,China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,orarethey
mattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidential
websitereportofyesterday'sSecurityCouncil
meeting,Putinissaidtohavereportedonthe
forthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaandPutin's
telephoneconversationswithErdoganand
Netahanyu,allinonesentenceandasiftheywere
alllinked.AmIgettingtooKremlinological,or
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,RodricBraithwaite
<[email protected]>wrote:
Idbeveryinterestedincomments
ontheJoshMarshallarticle.

R

On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
<[email protected]>
wrote:

Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson
[mailto:[email protected]]
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
carolinavendilpallin
<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>
RichardConnollyPhil
Roderic&MandyLyne
JohnBesemeresKlaus
SegbersFUFriedErc
RodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluence
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwarded
message:
Sentfrom
myiPad
Begin
forwarded
message:
Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
MARSHALLPublishedJULY
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
rightist/nationalist
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
KEYSER<[email protected]>
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
&utm_term=Editorial%20-
%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
emailJune
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
firstdiscoveredAPT29
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
group.OtherU.S.officialshave
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber
the
Ventures
civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
securityresearchers.
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
hacktivist/terrorist
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
named@PwnAlltheThingslooked
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
@PwnAllTheThingsremarked
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
compromisedNSAtradecraft.
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
klaussegbers
<gp-center-logo.jpg>
professorforpoliticalscience
director,centerforglobalpolitics
freeuniversityofberlin
garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
urlhttp://www.global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/politik
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
From: KyleWilson<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/27/201604:37:51AM
To: BobOtto<[email protected]>
SentfrommyiPad
From:StephenFortescue<[email protected]>
Date:27July20169:34:00pmAEST
To:RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>
Cc:JulianCooper<[email protected]>,KyleWilson<[email protected]>,RobertHorvath
<[email protected]>,BoboLo<[email protected]>,carolinavendilpallin
<[email protected]>,ElizabethTeague<[email protected]>,"<[email protected]>"
<[email protected]>,RichardConnolly<[email protected]>,PhilipHanson
<[email protected]>,RodericLyne<[email protected]>,JohnBesemeres
<[email protected]>,KlausSegbers<[email protected]>,FriedErc<[email protected]>,
SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>,DG<[email protected]>
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoingjustontheevidencecontainedinthevariousarticlesreferredtoin
thiscorrespondence,butitseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotitrightregardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutin
andTrump.Theevidenceisverythin-infactnonethatanyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthaveareclosetoPutin.
AsIoffepointsout,Trump'slackofbusinesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggestthelackofaconnection,ratherthan
theotherwayaround.ButbythesoundofithegenerallysenthissontoMoscow,somaybehewasn'teventrying
veryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresentaviewoftheworldwhichisveryattractivetotheRussians,andthat
they'rehopefulthathe'llwin.Iknownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthanabouthotelfinancing,butthatevidence
doessoundmoreconvincing,andwhywouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthecampaign,butonecan'thelphavingthenastyfeelingthatEstonia
beinginthesuburbsofStPetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermightbeattractivepropositionstomorevotersthan
Iliketothinkabout.HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,say,China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,oraretheymattersof
noimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidentialwebsitereportofyesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,Putinissaidto
havereportedontheforthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaandPutin'stelephoneconversationswithErdoganand
Netahanyu,allinonesentenceandasiftheywerealllinked.AmIgettingtooKremlinological,oraretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>wrote:
IdbeveryinterestedincommentsontheJoshMarshallarticle.
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/thehawks%E2%80%99electionstrategypushing
newcoldwar17113
Julian
To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeres
KlausSegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaiteStephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencethe
ElectionofanAmericanPresident
SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutin
WeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-
really-a-thing

TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It's
ReallyaThing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,
2016,4:15PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrain
abouttheseemingbromancebetweenDonaldTrumpand
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,but
relatedly,manybelieveTrumpisanadmirerandwould-
beemulatorofPutin'sincreasinglyautocraticandilliberal
rule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,Trumpappearstohaveadeepfinancial
dependenceonRussianmoneyfrompersonscloseto
Putin.Andthisismatchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousness
toRussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycomeinto
conflictwithUSpolicieswhichgobackdecadesthrough
administrationsofbothparties.Thereisalsosomething
betweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountof
evidencesuggestingPutin-backedfinancialsupportfor
Trumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwomen.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.Ihavelong
beenskepticalofUSeffortstoextendsecurityguarantees
tocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'near
abroad'orextendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussian
interactionswithnewstateswhichforcenturieswerepart
ofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.Thisisn'ta
matterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedon
mybeliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcosts
ofsuchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountries
arenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeen
madewhichabsolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemany
otherareaswheresuchcommitmentshavenotbeen
made.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometo
thisquestionorthesepoliciesassomeonelookingfor
confrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussian
moneyflowingintoTrump'scoffersandheis
conspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicy
priorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,
hisdebtloadhasgrowndramaticallyoverthelastyear,
from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustoneyear
whilehisliquidassetshavealsodecreased.Trumphas
beenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyrelianton
moneyfromRussia,mostofwhichhasovertheyears
becomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsand
sub-garchsclosetoVladimirPutin.Here'sagood
overviewfromTheWashingtonPost,withonemorselfor
illustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamily
membershavemadenumeroustripsto
Moscowinsearchofbusiness
opportunities,andtheyhavereliedon
Russianinvestorstobuytheirproperties
aroundtheworld.
Russiansmakeupapretty
disproportionatecross-sectionofalotof
ourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,told
arealestateconferencein2008,according
toanaccountpostedonthewebsiteof
eTurboNews,atradepublication.Wesee
alotofmoneypouringinfromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentin
Manhattan,oneofTrump'slargestrecentendeavors.The
projectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsinresponseto
sometypicallyTrumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsby
makingfraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealthof
theproject.Emergingoutofthatlitigationhowever
wasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfrom
RussiaandKazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheproject
hasfocusedonthepresenceofatwiceimprisoned
RussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussian
criminalunderworld.Butthat'snotthemostsalientpart
ofthestory.AstheTimesputit,
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50million
investmentinTrumpSoHoandthree
otherBayrockprojectsbyanIcelandic
firmpreferredbywealthyRussiansin
favorwithPresidentVladimirV.Putin,
accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockby
oneofitsformerexecutives.TheIcelandic
company,FLGroup,wasidentifiedina
Bayrockinvestorpresentationasa
strategicpartner,alongwithAlexander
Mashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedin
acorruptioncaseinvolvingfeespaidbya
Belgiancompanyseekingbusinessin
Kazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithno
admissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceived
unexplainedinfusionsofcashfromaccountsin
KazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusiness
failuresroughlyadecadeagoTrumphashadan
increasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfor
newinvestments.AsInotedabove,Trumphasbeen
blackballedbyallmajorUSbankswiththeexceptionof
Deutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwitha
majorUSpresence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthis
financialempirewithaheavyrelianceoncapitalfrom
Russia.AtaminimumtheTrumporganizationis
receivinglotsofinvestmentcapitalfrompeoplecloseto
VladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhis
connectionstoanddependenceonRussiancapitalaligned
withPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscoreathome:no,
that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal
'campaignchair'whonowfunctionsascampaign
managerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelast
decadeastopcampaignandcommunicationsadvisorfor
ViktorYanukovych,thepro-RussianUkrainianPrime
MinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledto
theon-goingcrisisandproxywarinUkraine.
YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutinally.
ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEurope
isCarterPage,amanwhoseentireprofessionalcareer
hasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaandwhohas
deepandcontinuingfinancialandemploymenttiesto
Gazprom.Ifyou'renotfamiliarwithGazprom,imagine
ifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywererolledup
intoasinglecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolled
bytheUSPresidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenue
andpatronage.ThatisGazprom'sroleintheRussian
politicalandeconomicsystem.Itisnoexaggerationto
saythatyoucannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromatthe
veryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeenwithoutbeing
whollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.Thosetiesalso
allowPutintoputPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,Putinhasalignedall
RussianstatecontrolledmediabehindTrump.AsFrank
Foerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutinhas
soughttopropuprightist/nationalistpoliticiansacross
Europe,oftenwithdirectorcovertinfusionsofmoney.In
somecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-backed
policiesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordin
Westernalignedstates.Ofcourse,Trumphasrepeatedly
praisedPutin,notonlyintheabstractbutoftenforthe
authoritarianpoliciesandpatternsofgovernmentwhich
havemostsouredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofa
handfulofdevelopmentsthattippedmefromseeingall
thisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinessto
somethingmorespecificandominousaboutthe
relationshipbetweenPutinandTrump.AsTPM'sTierney
Sneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduring
dynamicsofGOPconventions(there'sacomparable
dynamicontheDemside)ismoremainstreamnominees
battlingconservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,
withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardlineideological
boxesandthenomineestryingtosoftenmostorallof
thoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrump
conventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotally
indifferenttotheplatform.Sopartyactivistswereableto
writeoneofthemostconservativeplatformsinhistory.
NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn't
care.Withonebigexception:Trump'steammobilized
thenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingandstrong-
armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformon
assistancetoUkraineagainstRussianmilitary
operationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(and
it'snotworthmuch)Iamquiteskepticalofmost
RepublicanscallforaggressivelyarmingUkrainetoresist
Russianaggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthis
focusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotal
indifferencetoeverythingelseintheplatform-speaks
volumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepay
ofRussiaorPutin.Itcanjustaseasilybeexplainedby
havingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyears
workinginPutin'sorbitandbeingalignedwithhis
thinkingandagenda.Butitiscertainlynocoincidence.
Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetothe
platformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitin
anywaytheywant,histeamzeroedinononefairly
obscureplanktoexertmaximumforceanditjust
happenstobetheonemostimportanttoPutininterms
ofUSpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicy
statementstracknotonlywithPutin'spositionsbutthose
inwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.Asidefrom
Ukraine,Trump'ssuggestionthattheUSandthusNATO
mightnotcometothedefenseofNATOmemberstatesin
theBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionisacasein
point.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabout
hackingandallmannerofothermysteries.Butthose
pointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingon
conspiratorialintheirthinking.Iignorethemhere
becauseI'vewantedtofocusonunimpeachable,
undisputedandpubliclyknownfacts.Thesealonepainta
starkandhighlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinwere
simplytheCEOofamajorAmericancorporationand
therewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump's
direction,combinedwiththismuchsolicitousnessof
Putin'spolicyagenda,itwouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.
Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutinis
nottheCEOofanAmericancorporation.He'sthe
autocratwhorulesaforeignstate,withanincreasingly
hostileposturetowardstheUnitedStatesanda
substantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakes
involvedinfindingout'what'sgoingon'asTrumpmight
putitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialanda
substantialamountofcircumstantialevidencefora
financialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-
tacitalliancebetweenthetwomen.Evenifyoudrawno
adverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancialempireisheavily
leveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusions
fromoligarchsandothersourcesofwealthalignedwith
Putin.That'ssimplynotsomethingthatcanbewavedoff
orignored.
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-putin-
weaponized-wikileaks-influence-election-american-
president/130163/?&utm_term=Editorial%20-
HowPutin
WeaponizedWikileaks
toInfluencethe
Electionofan
AmericanPresident
EvidencesuggeststhataRussianintelligence
groupwasthesourceofthemostrecent
Wikileaksinteldump,whichwasaimedto
influencetheU.S.election
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethat
ahackinggroupbackedbyRussianPresident
VladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofa
majorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroupstole
thousandsofsensitivemessagesandthen
publishedthemthroughanobligingthirdparty
inawaythatwasstrategicallytimedtoinfluence
theUnitedStatespresidentialelection.Now
openyoureyes,becausethatswhat
justhappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emails
stolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Theyreveal,amongother
things,thuggishinfighting,apushbya
topDNCofficialtouseBernieSanders
religiousconvictionsagainsthimintheSouth,
andattemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.In
otherwords,theyrevealtheWashington
campaignmonsterforwhatitis.
Butleaveasidethepurportedcontentofthe
Wikileaksdatadump(towhichnumerousother
outletshavedevotedconsiderableattention)
andconsiderthesource.Considerableevidence
showsthattheWikileaksdumpwasan
orchestratedactbytheRussiangovernment,
workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillary
ClintonsPresidentialcampaign.
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.The
onlyrationaletoreleasesuchdatafromthe
Russianbulletproofhostwastoempowerone
candidateagainstanother.TheColdWarisalive
andwell,TomKellermann,theCEOof
StrategicCyberVenturestoldDefenseOne.
Subscribe Heresthetimeline:On
Receivedailyemailupdates: June14,cybersecurity
companyCrowdStrike,
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwith
theDNC,announcedin
ablogpostthattwo
separateRussian
intelligencegroupshadgainedaccessto
theDNCnetwork.One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gainedaccess
inApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalled
CozyDukeandAPT29)firstbreachedthe
networkinthesummerof2015.
CybersecuritycompanyFireEye
firstdiscoveredAPT29in2014andwasquick
topointoutaclearKremlinconnection.We
suspecttheRussiangovernmentsponsorsthe
groupbecauseoftheorganizationsittargetsand
thedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29appeared
toceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,and
theirworkhoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3
timezone,whichcontainscitiessuchas
MoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshave
saidthatthegrouplookslikeithassponsorship
fromtheRussiangovernmentdueinlargepart
tothelevelofsophisticationbehindthe
groupsattacks.
Itsthe TheColdWarisaliveandwell
samegroup TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
thathit
theState
Department,theWhiteHouse,andthe
civilianemailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.The
groupsmodusoperandi(aspearphishingattack
thatuploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstoolon
thetargetscomputer)iswellknowntocyber-
Inhisblogposton
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsof
experiencewithbothoftheseactorsattempting
totargetourcustomersinthepastandknow
themwell.Infact,ourteamconsidersthem
someofthebestadversariesoutofallthe
numerousnation-state,criminaland
hacktivist/terroristgroupsweencounterona
dailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandthe
extensiveusageofliving-off-the-land
techniquesenablesthemtoeasilybypassmany
securitysolutionstheyencounter.
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimself
Guccifer2.0claimedtobetheculpritbehind
thebreachandreleasedkeydocumentstoback
uptheclaim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
Related:WhattheJointChiefsEmail
HackTellsUsAbouttheDNCBreach
Related:TheUkrainianBlackoutand
theFutureofWar
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,
writing:theseclaimsdonothingtolessenour
findingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernments
involvement,portionsofwhichwehave
documentedforthepublicandthegreater
securitycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependent
analysisandreachedthesameconclusion.The
groupFidelisundertooktheirown
investigationandfoundCrowdstriketo
becorrect.
ATwitteruser
named@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthe
metadataonthedocsthatGuccifer2.0provided
inhisblogpostandfoundliteral
Russiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodin
atArsTechnica.Giventheevidence
combinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsa
strongattributiontooneoftheRussian
intelligenceagencies,
toMotherboard.
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-
BicchieraiactuallyconversedwithGuccifer2.0
overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimedtobe
Romanian,answeredquestionsinshort
sentencesthatwerefilledwithmistakes
accordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
AlargebodyofevidencesuggeststhatGuccifer
2.0isasmokescreenthattheactualculprits
employedtohidetheirinvolvementin
thebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussian
informationandinfluenceoperations.Russian
propagandistshavebeencaughthiringactorsto
portrayvictimsofmanufacturedatrocitiesor
crimesfornewsreports(aswasthecasewhen
ViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohavebeen
attackedbySyrianrefugeesinGermanyfor
RussiasZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-
scenenewsreporting(asshowninaleaked
videoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovais
revealedtobeinadarkenedroomwith
explosionsoundsplayinginthebackground
ratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhena
lightisswitchedonduringtherecording),
notesaRANDreportfromearlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatform
servedtolegitimizetheinformationdump,
whichalsocontainsalargeamountof
personalinformationrelatedtodemocratic
donorssuchassocialsecurityandcreditcard
numbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaksdidnt
performathoroughanalysisofthedocuments
beforetheyreleasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthat
informationsecurityresearcherBruceSchneier
callsorganizationaldoxingandthat
LawfaresNicholasWeavercallsthe
weaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priorto
theDNCincident,wastheJune2015the
publicationofseveralsetsofNSArecords
relatedtogovernmentintelligencecollection
targets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.The
dataitselfwasnotremarkable,butitdid
harmU.S.relationsandmayhave
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaks
doesntseemtocarethattheyarebeingusedas
aweaponbyunknownparties,insteadcalling
themselvesalibraryofmasseducation.
Buttherestofusshould,Weaverwrites.
Theevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthat
Putinusedtogreateffectlastweek.
Senttime: 07/29/201605:14:02AM
stillsorryIcan'tgetridofthetail,butRB'scommentstrikesmeasbrilliant
To:JulianCooper<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>BoboLo<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin
<[email protected]>ElizabethTeague<[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]>
RichardConnolly<[email protected]>PhilipHanson<[email protected]>RodericLyne
<[email protected]>JohnBesemeres<[email protected]>FriedErc<[email protected]>SilvanaMalle
<[email protected]>DG<[email protected]>
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.IsawacoupleofZiuganovsteam
atthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?Mystrongimpressionwasthat,despitetheir
mansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimtowin-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.They
obviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcometheresponsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhedvoted.Hesaidhehadnt,becausehe
couldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasntmybusinesstosayso,Ithoughthe
shouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklatermumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.
MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthepollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassayingthattheendof
civilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeeditmightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,
madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenottheanswer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEast
Europeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hedmakesuretherewerenomoreelections.Whoknows?
AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwinaColdWar.INthiscountrythings
aresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstomethatthelatestfiascoisonemorestage
inBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormalcountry(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunch
aboveourweight.
Stephen



Julian#

DG
Klaus,
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

kolkhoz).
worst).
klaus
IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseordisbeliefinthe
outcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnothaveexpected
scepticism.
countfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
conflict16726

Julian

MalleDG

Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
berlin.de>wrote:


tryingveryhard.
mattersofnoimport?
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

R

On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
<[email protected]
.uk>wrote:

Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest
.org/feature/the
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson
[mailto:krwilson66@iclou
d.com]
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
<[email protected]>
<[email protected]
om>RichardConnolly
PhilRoderic&Mandy
LyneJohnBesemeres
KlausSegbersFUFried
ErcRodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident
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W
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w
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k
.

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Senttime: 07/29/201604:43:25AM
To: DavidWall<[email protected]>
SentfrommyiPad
From:JulianCooper<[email protected]>
To:StephenFortescue<[email protected]>,"[email protected]"<[email protected]>
Cc:RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>,KyleWilson<[email protected]>,RobertHorvath
<[email protected]>,BoboLo<[email protected]>,carolinavendilpallin
<[email protected]>,ElizabethTeague<[email protected]>,"<[email protected]>"
<[email protected]>,RichardConnolly<[email protected]>,PhilipHanson
<[email protected]>,RodericLyne<[email protected]>,JohnBesemeres
<[email protected]>,FriedErc<[email protected]>,SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>,DG
<[email protected]>
Subject:RE:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
Stephen
Julian#
DG

Klaus,
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
kolkhoz).
worst).
klaus
scepticism.
countfalsification?
Stephen
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conflict16726
Julian
MalleDG
Stephen
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berlin.de>wrote:

tryingveryhard.
mattersofnoimport?
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
<[email protected]>
wrote:
Anotherview:
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113
Julian
From:KyleWilson
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>
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SegbersFUFriedErc
RodricBraithwaite
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Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident

SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwarded
message:
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myiPad
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forwarded
message:
Date:26
July
2016
at
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To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
timeline:On
Receive
June
daily
14,
email
cybersecurity
updates:
company
CrowdStrike,
Subscribe
under
to
contract
the
with
Defense
theDNC,
One
announced
daily.
in
a
Be
blog
the
post
first
that
to
two
receive
separate
updates.
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
group
War
that
is
hit
alive
theState
and
Department,
well
the
White
Tom
House,
Kellermann,CEOof
and
Strategic
the
Cyber
civilian
Ventures
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
Senttime: 07/29/201603:35:31AM
Sorry,Idon'tknowhowtocutoffallthestuffattheend...
From:JulianCooper<[email protected]>
To:StephenFortescue<[email protected]>segbers<[email protected]>
CC:RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>KyleWilson<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>
BoboLo<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>ElizabethTeague<[email protected]>
<[email protected]><[email protected]>RichardConnolly<[email protected]>PhilipHanson
<[email protected]>RodericLyne<[email protected]>JohnBesemeres<[email protected]>Fried
Erc<[email protected]>SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>DG<[email protected]>
Subject:RE:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
Stephen
DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelectioninancommentmadeat
aclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenandnow;afilialofthe
KhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstatecorporation.Alsoinvolvednowinimport
substitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoilandgasindustry.
Julian#
<[email protected]>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalleDG
Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytogetyoudrunk.Anumberof
mywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.OneofthemwasthechiefengineeroftheVoronezhMekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat's
thename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),whobecametheheadofthelocalprivatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectfor
Chubais.Idon'tremembertalkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehewouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehe
wouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinterestingmeetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunitytodescribesomeother
time-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemeberacolorfulkolkhoz).
theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationsonelectionday.unlessyoutake
attemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversasfalsifications(icouldresisttheworst).
mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredislikedzyuganov,though.also,we
shouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetankinfrontofthewhitehousebuttheonelettinghis
daughterandothersgrabstuff,andlettingkorzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,cumberezovskyietal..
themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthenationalismornostalgic
'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'tocontinueinstitutionalreformsandintegratingthe
countryintotheworld(whatwasontheagendathen,wemaycomparewithtoday,havingtearsinoureyes).
klaus
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.I'vegotonequestion,I
supposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shisreferencestothe'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand
'massiveelectoralfraud'ofthe1996elections.Thesearecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatone
seeseverywherethesedays,indeedasiftheyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Istheclaimthatthe
countingwassimplyfaked,andthatifthevoteshadbeencountedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?
Ifthatistheclaim,isthereevidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotaware
ofit.IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseordisbeliefinthe
outcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnothaveexpectedscepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportforYeltsinandsoon(andmay
bethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').IremembertheTVcampaigns-IrememberseeingYeltsin's
famousdancingonstage-andthereasonablyrelentlessdocumentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.
AsfarasIcouldtellthedocumentarieswereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewascertainlysomething
aboutthetiming.IalsorememberZyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethat
Iwasawareofitanditscontent,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbemore
electorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.AndIrememberthedeal
withLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabigchunkofvotesinthesecondround.Ihavetoadmit
thatIhavenomemoryofYavlinskybeingaviablecandidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnotthroughhardcore
,butthroughstraightdownthelineballotboxstuffingandcountfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamericadestinedconflict16726

Julian

Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendil
pallinElizabethTeague<[email protected]>RichardConnollyPhilipHanson
RodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencethe

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehowbigallthisreallyisinthe
UScampaign,andwhyamIcommentingonaplaceI'vebarelyevenvisitedinmylife,but
iftheDemocratsarerelyingontheRussiancardtogetthemovertheline,we'vegotabig
problemandifwethinkPutinisthesourceofallourproblems,we'vegotanevenbigger
problem.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlinbutaboutpoliticallygifted
clownssensingopportunities.theyfeelhowmanypeopleareclue-andhelpless
facingsocialandculturalchallengesrelatedtoglobalization.theypersonalize
thesefeelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),andofferingsimplified(and
mostlynotviable)solutions('let'sbuildawall').thisisthelinkbetweenputin,
orban,erdogan,trump,xi(exploitingtheanti-elitefeelingsbypromotinganti-
corruption)and,maybe,natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).
IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoingjustonthe
evidencecontainedinthevariousarticlesreferredtointhis
correspondence,butitseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotit
rightregardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutinandTrump.
Theevidenceisverythin-infactnonethatanyRussian
partnersTrumpmighthaveareclosetoPutin.AsIoffepoints
out,Trump'slackofbusinesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggest
thelackofaconnection,ratherthantheotherwayaround.But
bythesoundofithegenerallysenthissontoMoscow,somay
behewasn'teventryingveryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresentaviewoftheworld
whichisveryattractivetotheRussians,andthatthey'rehopeful
thathe'llwin.Iknownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthan
abouthotelfinancing,butthatevidencedoessoundmore
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthecampaign,
butonecan'thelphavingthenastyfeelingthatEstoniabeingin
thesuburbsofStPetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermight
beattractivepropositionstomorevotersthanIliketothink
about.HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,say,China,theSouth
ChinaSeas,etc,oraretheymattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidentialwebsitereport
ofyesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,Putinissaidtohave
reportedontheforthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaand
Putin'stelephoneconversationswithErdoganandNetahanyu,
allinonesentenceandasiftheywerealllinked.AmIgetting
tooKremlinological,oraretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
IdbeveryinterestedincommentsontheJosh
Marshallarticle.

R

On26Jul2016,at09:42,Julian
Cooper<[email protected]>
wrote:

Anotherview:
hawks%E2%80%99election
strategypushingnewcoldwar
17113
Julian
From:KyleWilson
To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulian
Coopercarolinavendilpallin
<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>Richard
ConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyne
JohnBesemeresKlausSegbersFU
FriedErcRodricBraithwaiteStephen
FortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutin
WeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencethe
SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwarded
message:
Date:26
July2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
ofan
American
President
for
whatever
it'sworth
...
putin-yes-
it-s-really-
a-thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Overthe
lastyear
therehas
beena
recurrent
refrain
aboutthe
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trumpis
an
admirer
and
would-be
emulator
ofPutin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.But
there's
quitea
bitmore
tothe
story.At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
tohavea
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
closeto
Putin.
Andthis
is
matched
toa
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
withUS
policies
whichgo
back
decades
through
administrations
ofboth
parties.
Thereis
also
something
between
anon-
trivial
anda
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trumpor
anon-
tacit
alliance
between
thetwo
men.
Letme
startby
saying
I'mno
Russia
hawk.I
have
longbeen
skeptical
ofUS
effortsto
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
whatthe
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
orextend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
withnew
states
whichfor
centuries
werepart
ofeither
the
Russian
Empire
orthe
USSR.
Thisisn't
amatter
of
indifference
tothese
countries.
Itis
basedon
mybelief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costsof
such
policies.
Inthe
caseof
the
Baltics,
those
countries
arenow
partof
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
mustbe
kept.But
thereare
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
havenot
been
made.
Mypoint
inraising
thisis
thatIdo
notcome
tothis
question
orthese
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
orcold
relations
with
Russia.
Let'sstart
withthe
basic
facts.
Thereisa
lotof
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
andheis
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'lllistoff
some
facts.
1.Allthe
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
loadhas
grown
dramatically
overthe
lastyear,
from
$350
millionto
$630
million.
Thisisin
justone
year
whilehis
liquid
assets
havealso
decreased.
Trump
hasbeen
blackballed
byall
majorUS
banks.
2.Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
hasbeen
highly
relianton
money
from
Russia,
mostof
which
hasover
theyears
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
andsub-
garchs
closeto
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.One
example
ofthisis
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
oneof
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
washit
witha
seriesof
lawsuits
in
response
tosome
typically
Trumpian
effortsto
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
aboutthe
financial
healthof
the
project.
Emerging
outof
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
forthe
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
aboutthe
project
has
focused
onthe
presence
ofatwice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
tiestothe
Russian
criminal
underworld.
Butthat's
notthe
most
salient
partof
thestory.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
ofcash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
Afterhis
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughlya
decade
ago
Trump
hashad
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
ofcapital
fornew
investments.
AsI
noted
above,
Trump
hasbeen
blackballed
byall
majorUS
banks
withthe
exception
of
Deutschebank,
whichis
ofcourse
aforeign
bank
witha
majorUS
presence.
Hehas
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
witha
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
Ata
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lotsof
investment
capital
from
people
closeto
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
thedepth
ofhis
connections
toand
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
Andin
case
you're
keeping
scoreat
home:
no,that's
not
reassuring.
4.Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
whonow
functions
as
campaign
manager
andtop
advisor.
Manafort
spent
mostof
thelast
decadeas
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
forViktor
Yanukovych,
thepro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
andthen
President
whose
ousterin
2014led
tothe
on-going
crisisand
proxy
warin
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
wasand
remains
aclose
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
inRussia
andwho
hasdeep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
tiesto
Gazprom.
Ifyou're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
ifmostor
allofthe
US
energy
industry
were
rolledup
intoa
single
company
andit
were
personally
controlled
bythe
US
President
whoused
itasa
sourceof
revenue
and
patronage.
Thatis
Gazprom's
rolein
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
Itisno
exaggeration
tosay
thatyou
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
atthe
veryhigh
level
which
Pagehas
been
without
being
whollyin
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
tiesalso
allow
Putinto
putPage
outof
business
atany
time.
6.Over
the
courseof
thelast
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
AsFrank
Foerexplains
here,this
fitsa
pattern
withhow
Putinhas
soughtto
propup
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
director
covert
infusions
of
money.
Insome
casesthis
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
inothers
itis
simply
because
theysow
discordin
Western
aligned
states.Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
notonly
inthe
abstract
butoften
forthe
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.Here's
whereit
gets
more
interesting.
Thisis
oneofa
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
mefrom
seeingall
thisas
justa
partof
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
aboutthe
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
AsTPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
inthis
article,
oneof
themost
enduring
dynamics
ofGOP
conventions
(there'sa
comparable
dynamic
onthe
Dem
side)is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
overthe
party
platform,
with
activists
tryingto
checkall
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
andthe
nominees
tryingto
soften
mostor
allof
those
edges.
Thisis
onething
that
madethe
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
tothe
platform.
Soparty
activists
wereable
towrite
oneof
themost
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Notwith
Trump's
backing
but
because
hesimply
didn't
care.With
onebig
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mixof
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
onone
point:changing
theparty
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
Forwhat
it'sworth
(andit's
not
worth
much)I
amquite
skeptical
ofmost
Republicans
callfor
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
toresist
Russian
aggression.
Butthe
single-
mindedness
ofthis
focuson
thisone
issue-in
the
context
oftotal
indifference
to
everything
elsein
the
platform
-speaks
volumes.
Thisdoes
notmean
Trumpis
controlled
byorin
thepay
ofRussia
orPutin.
Itcan
justas
easilybe
explained
by
having
manyof
histop
advisors
having
spent
years
working
inPutin's
orbitand
being
aligned
withhis
thinking
and
agenda.
Butitis
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,in
the
context
ofnear
total
indifference
tothe
platform
and
willingness
tolet
party
activists
writeitin
anyway
they
want,his
team
zeroedin
onone
fairly
obscure
plankto
exert
maximum
forceand
itjust
happens
tobethe
onemost
important
toPutin
interms
ofUS
policy.
Addto
thisthat
hismost
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
tracknot
onlywith
Putin's
positions
butthose
inwhich
Putinis
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
thatthe
USand
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
tothe
defense
ofNATO
member
statesin
the
Balticsin
thecase
ofa
Russian
invasion
isacase
inpoint.
Thereare
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
andall
manner
ofother
mysteries.
Butthose
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
intheir
thinking.
Iignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
tofocus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
painta
starkand
highly
troubling
picture.
Toput
thisall
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
theCEO
ofa
major
American
corporation
andthere
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
itwould
setoff
alarm
bells
galore.
Thatis
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
Andyet
Putinis
notthe
CEOof
an
American
corporation.
He'sthe
autocrat
who
rulesa
foreign
state,
withan
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
anda
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
infinding
out
'what's
goingon'
asTrump
might
putitare
quitea
bit
higher.
Thereis
something
between
anon-
trivial
anda
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
fora
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putinor
anon-
tacit
alliance
between
thetwo
men.
Evenif
youdraw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empireis
heavily
leveraged
andhasa
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
andother
sources
ofwealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
thatcan
bewaved
offor
ignored.
----------
Forwarded
message-
---------
From:Don
Date:
Mon,Jul
25,2016
at8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
thata
Russian
intelligence
group
wasthe
source
ofthe
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
theU.S.
election
July24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
intothe
email
system
ofa
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
partyin
away
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
apush
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
himin
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
ofthe
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
thatthe
Wikileaks
dump
wasan
orchestrated
actby
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
hasall
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
wasto
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
Waris
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Subscribe
Receive
daily
email
updates:
Subscribe
tothe
Defense
Onedaily.
Bethe
firstto
receive
updates.
Heres
the
timeline:On
June
14,
cybersecurity
company
CrowdStrike,
under
contract
with
theDNC,
announced
ina
blog
post
that
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
inApril.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
inthe
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in2014
andwas
quickto
point
outa
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
ofthe
organizations
it
targets
andthe
datait
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
tocease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seemto
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
suchas
Moscow
andSt.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
intheir
report
onthe
said
thatthe
group
looks
likeit
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
duein
large
partto
the
levelof
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
TheCold
Warisalive
andwell
Tom
Kellermann,CEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
Itsthe
same
group
thathit
theState
Department,
the
White
House,
andthe
civilian
emailof
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
toolon
the
targets
computer)
iswell
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
hadlots
of
experience
with
bothof
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
inthe
past
and
know
them
well.In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
someof
thebest
adversaries
outof
allthe
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
ona
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
tonone
andthe
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-the-
land
techniques
enables
themto
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
bethe
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
toback
upthe
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
bytheir
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
tothe
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
wehave
documented
forthe
public
andthe
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
atthe
metadata
onthe
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
inhis
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
upby
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,I
think
itsa
strong
attribution
toone
ofthe
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
tobe
Romanian,
answered
questions
inshort
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
Alarge
bodyof
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0isa
smokescreen
thatthe
actual
culprits
employed
tohide
th
From: JohnBDunlop<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/27/201610:03:25AM
FW:[CHOASTHEORYONDISPLAY--OR---WELCOMETODUGIN'SWORLD][PB]U.S.intel:"highconfidence"thatRUbehindDNCemails
Subject: hacks..[PP]DNCHACKERWORKFORRU[VRT/JDDDPARTI]OBHintsPossibleMotiveforRUtoHelpTrump..[CK]Putin
LeverageoverHil
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:[email protected]]
Sent:Wednesday,July27,201610:00AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[CHOASTHEORYONDISPLAY--OR---WELCOMETODUGIN'SWORLD][PB]U.S.intel:"highconfidence"thatRUbehindDNC
emailshacks..[PP]DNCHACKERWORKFORRU[VRT/JDDDPARTI]OBHintsPossibleMotiveforRUtoHelpTrump..[CK]Putin
LeverageoverHila...
From:PeterBorisow<[email protected]>
Date:Wed,Jul27,2016at12:03PM
Subject:Fwd:BreakingNews:U.S.intelligenceagenciesaresaidtohave"highconfidence"thatRussiawasbehindthehackof
DemocraticPartyemails
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<[email protected]>
UnrestrictedWarfareJumpsAcrossTheAtlantic.Whosaidweneedn'tworry,thattheUSwouldneverbeinvadedbecauseit's
protectedonbothflanksbyoceans?Well,asyoulaysleeping,PutinjustjumpedrightintotheheartofthecherishedAmerican
politicalprocess.It'snotDemocratsorRepublicans.He'srubbingallthenation'snosesinpoo.OK,so,now,whatisanyone
goingtodoaboutit?
From:NYTimes.comNewsAlert<[email protected]>
Date:July26,20166:25:54PMPDT
Subject:BreakingNews:U.S.intelligenceagenciesaresaidtohave"highconfidence"
thatRussiawasbehindthehackofDemocraticPartyemails
[email protected].
July26,2016 NYTimes.com
BreakingNewsAlert
J u l y
2 6 ,
2 0 1 6

BREAKINGNEWS
U.S.intelligenceagenciesaresaidto
have"highconfidence"thatRussia
wasbehindthehackofDemocratic
Partyemails
Tuesday,July26,20169:14PMEDT
TheAmericanintelligenceagencieshavecautionedthattheyareuncertainwhether
theelectronicbreak-inatthecommitteescomputersystemswasintendedasfairly
routinecyberespionageofthekindtheUnitedStatesalsoconductsaroundthe
worldoraspartofanefforttomanipulatethe2016presidentialelection.
TheemailswerereleasedbyWikiLeaks,whosefounder,JulianAssangehasmadeit
clearthathehopedtoharmHillaryClintonschancesofwinningthepresidency.Itis
unclearhowthedocumentsmadetheirwaytothegroup.
Readmore
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From:PeterPaluch<[email protected]>
Date:Wed,Jul27,2016at9:35AM
Subject:HeReallyWorksforRussia/DNCHACKERUNMASKED
To:VictorRud<[email protected]>,[email protected],[email protected],BrianSpadora
<[email protected]>,WalterZaryckyj<[email protected]>
DNCHackerUnmasked:HeReallyWorksforRussia,ResearchersSay
ShaneHarrisandNancyA.Youssef,DailyBeast26/7/16
ThehackerwhoclaimedtocompromisetheDNCsworehewasRomanian.Butnewresearchshowsheworkeddirectlyforthe
VladimirPutingovernmentinMoscow.
ThehackerwhoclaimstohavestolenemailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandprovidedthemtoWikiLeaksisactually
anagentoftheRussiangovernmentandpartofanorchestratedattempttoinfluenceU.S.mediacoveragesurroundingthe
presidentialelection,asecurityresearchgroupconcludedonTuesday.
Theresearchers,atArlington,Va.-basedThreatConnect,tracedtheself-describedRomanianhackerGuccifer2.0backtoan
InternetserverinRussiaandtoadigitaladdressthathasbeenlinkedinthepasttoRussianonlinescams.Farfrombeingasingly,
sophisticatedhacker,Guccifer2.0ismorelikelyacollectionofpeoplefromthepropagandaarmoftheRussiangovernmentmeant
todeflectattentionawayfromMoscowastheforcebehindtheDNChacksandleaksofemails,theresearchersfound.
ThreatConnectisthefirstknowngroupofexpertstolinktheself-proclaimedhackertoaRussianoperation,amidstanongoing
FBIinvestigationandapresidentialcampaignrockedbythereleaseofDNCemailsthathaveembarrassedseniorpartyleaders
andinflamedintrapartytensionsturningtheDemocraticNationalConvention.Theemailsrevealedthatpartyinsidersplottedways
toundermineSen.BernieSanderspresidentialbid.
Thesearebureaucrats,notsophisticatedhackers,RichBarger,ThreatConnectschiefintelligenceofficer,toldTheDailyBeast.
Inblogpostsandininterviewswithjournalists,Bargersaid,Guccifer2.0hasmadeinconsistentremarksandgivenaversionof
howhepenetratedtheDNCnetworksthattechnicallydontmakesense.Forinstance,thehackerclaimstohaveusedasoftware
flawthatdidntexistuntilDecember2015inordertobreakintotheDNCnetworkslastsummer.
InaninterviewwithMotherboardinJune,thehackeralsorefusedtospeakinRomanian,anotherindicationthathewasntwhohe
claimedtobe.
ThreatConnectalsofoundthatGuccifer2.0wasattemptingtomaskhistruelocation,inRussia,bycommunicatingthroughan
InternetservicebasedinFrance.Suchmaskingisnotuncommoningovernment-sponsoredoperations,norisitparticularlydifficult
toaccomplish.
TheresearchersconcludedthatGuccifer2.0isactuallyanapparitioncreatedunderahastyRussian[denialanddeception]
campaigntoinfluencepoliticaleventsintheU.S.(ThenewssiteVocativwasthefirsttoreportontheseconclusions,andVocativ
reporterKevinColliersuppliedsomedatatotheresearchers.)
Maintainingaruseofthisnaturewithinboththephysicalandvirtualdomainsrequiresbelievableandverifiableeventswhichdonot
contradictoneanother.Thatisnotthecasehere,theresearcherswroteinablogpost.BytracingGuccifer2.0sInternet
infrastructure,theresearchersconcludedheorthegroupisaRussia-controlledplatformthatcanactasacensoredhacktivist.
MoscowdetermineswhatGuccifer2.0sharesandthuscanattempttoselectivelyimpactmediacoverage,andpotentiallythe
election,inawaythatultimatelybenefitstheirnationalobjectives.
ThatfindingmatchesthepoliticalmotivethatU.S.officialstoldTheDailyBeasttheyhaveseeninRussiashackingoftheDNC.
TheFBIsaidonMondaythatitwasinvestigatingthebreach,whichagrowingnumberwithintheObamaadministrationbelieve
wasdesignedtoembarrassDemocrats,exacerbatetensionsbetweenHillaryClintonandherformerrivalBernieSandersaswell
ashisvotersandultimatelytogiveaboosttoRepublicannomineeDonaldTrump.
OnTuesday,PresidentObamasaidthatwhiletheFBIisinvestigating,expertshaveattributedthistotheRussiansandthatitwas
"possibletheleakwasdesignedtohelptheTrumpcampaign.
ResearchersfromcybersecuritycompanyCrowdStrikehavepubliclyattributedtheDNCbreachtotheworkoftwoknown
RussiangovernmenthackergroupsthathavealsotargetedU.S.governmentagencies,theWhiteHouse,andAmericanuniversities.
ThetacticsandtechniquesinthosecampaignsmatchupwithforensicevidencegatheredfromtheDNCbreach.
ThreatConnectsfindingsseemtounderscoretheextenttowhichtheRussiangovernment,atleastinitially,wantedtoobscureits
roleinaso-calledactivemeasurescampaigndesignedtocausemischiefintheU.S.election,saidBarger,aformerU.S.Army
intelligenceanalyst.
ButitsnotclearwhereintheRussiangovernment,oritssphereofinfluence,Guccifer2.0sits.
WikiLeakshasnotidentifieditssourcefortheDNCemails,eventhoughGuccifer2.0claimstohaveprovidedthem.A
representativeoftheanti-secrecyorganizationtoldTheDailyBeastonMondaythattheywereverypleasedwiththisgreatscoop
indatajournalism,referringtothepublicationoftheDNCemails.Journalistsatmanyoutletsandthegeneralpublicareall
pitchingintounderstandthiswonderfuldatasetwhichdescribeshowtheDNCreallyworks.OurpublicationofleakedDNC
emailsandthemanyDNChacksoverthelasttwoyearsareseparateincidentsandshouldnotbeconflated.
WikiLeaksdidntrespondtoGuccifer2.0sclaimsortoaccusationsfromU.S.officialsinrecentdaysthattheRussiangovernment
orchestratedtheleaktothegroup.
InaSkypeinterviewMondaywithNBCNews,WikileaksfounderJulianAssangerejectedsuggestionsthattheRussianswere
behindtheDNChack,sayingthepartysserversecuritywassoweak,itcouldhavebeenhackedbyvariousgroups.
Theemailsthatwehavereleasedaredifferentsetsofdocumentstothedocumentsofthose[that]peoplehaveanalyzed,hetold
NBCsRichardEngel.
From:VRT
Subject:AfterDNCleaks,ObamahintsatpossiblemotiveforRussiatohelpTrump
To:wolodymyrzarycky<[email protected]>
WAZ:Thisstoryshouldbetitled(inhonorofRaisingArizona):LOOKWHO'STALKING
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-dnc-leaks-obama-hints-at-possible-motive-for-russia-to-help-trump
/2016/07/26/cfd33692-538a-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html
AfterDNCleaks,ObamahintsatpossiblemotiveforRussiatohelpTrump
From:JohnBDunlop<[email protected]>
Subject:"AfterDNCleaks,OBAMAhintsatpossibleMOTIVEforRussiatohelpTrump,"washingtonpost.com,7/27
[ED:PARTONEONJDDD7-27]
To:"[email protected]"<[email protected]>
Cc:"[email protected]"<[email protected]>,"[email protected]"<[email protected]>
PresidentObamaonTuesdaywadedintothecontroversyovertheleakofDNCemails,sayingthehack
ofpartyrecordswascharacteristicofRussiangovernmentbehaviorWhatwedoknowisthatthe
Russianshackoursystems,notjustgovernmentsystemsbutprivatesystems.Whatthemotiveswerein
termsoftheleaks,allthatIcantsaydirectly.WhatIdoknowisthatDonaldTRUMPhasrepeatedly
expressedadmirationforPutin.
And:OfficialeditorialoftheNewYorkTimes:ThePUTIN-TRUMPadmirationsociety,nytimes.com,
7/27
WouldMr.PutinreallyinterfereintheAmericanpresidentialracetohelpMr.Trump,theRepublican
Partynominee,getelectedovertheDemocraticnominee,HillaryClinton?...itisbeingconsidereda
seriouspossibilityaftertheirreleaseonFridayofnearly20,000emailsstolenfromtheDNCcomputer
servers,manyofthemembarrassingtoDemocraticleadersTheDemocratsexpectmoreleaks.Itmay
taketimetoprovewhowasbehindthecyberattacks,butAmericanintelligenceagencieshavereportedly
toldtheWhiteHousethattheyhavehighconfidenceitwasRussia.Severalcybersecurityfirmsthat
examinedthemetadatasaiditlookedliketheworkoftwoRussianintelligenceagenciesTheFBIis
investigating.Mr.TrumphasdismissedtheideaofaRussianinterventiononhisbehalfasajoke.Buthis
pastwordsaboutMr.PutinhavecausedsometosuspectthatMoscowwouldseektogiveMr.trumpan
edgeintheelection.
And:RussianSTATE-SPONSOREDACTORSwentafteraDNCstafferinvestigatingPaul
MANAFORTs[Trumpscampaignmanager]activitiesinUkraine:SeeMichaelISIKOFF,Exclusive:
SuspectedRussianhackofDNCWIDENSincludespersonalemailofstafferresearching
Manafort,yahoo.com/news,7/25
JustweeksaftershestartedpreparingoppositionresearchfilesonDonaldTrumpscampaignchairman
paulManafortlastspring,DNCconsultantAlexandraChalupagotanalarmingmessagewhenshelogged
ontoherpersonalYahooaccount.Importantactionrequired,apop-upfromaYahoosecurityteamthat
isinformallyknownastheParanoids.Westronglysuspectthatyouraccounthasbeenthetargetof
state-sponsoredactors.ChalupawhohadbeendraftingmemosandwritingmemosaboutManaforts
connectionstoPRO-RUSSIANLEADERSinUkrainequicklyalertedtopDNCofficials.Chalupas
messagestandsout:itisthefirstindicationthatthereachofthehackerswhopenetratedtheDNChas
extendedBEYONDtheofficialemailaccountsofcommitteeofficialsAfterChalupasenttheemailto
[hersupervisor]ittriggeredhigh-levelconcernswithintheDNC,giventhesensitivenatureofherwork.
ThatswhenweknewitwastheRUSSIANS,saidaDemocraticPartysourceWetoldhertostop
herresearch.ThelasttimesomebodybrokeintotheDNC[Watergate],itledtotheresignationofa
president,saidtheDemocraticPartysecuritysource.
And:DanaMILBANK,ATrump-stylespeculationontheGOPandPUTIN,washingtonpost.com,
7/27op-ed
And:LililiaSHEVTSOVAdiscussestheRussiantraceintheDNC
scandal:http://blog.newsru.com/article/27july2016/sled
And:SodoesnotedcolumnistVitaliiPORTNIKOV,Manafort,YanukovychandTrump
:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/2789944.html
From:CliffKincaid<[email protected]>
Subject:WhyPutinLovesHillary
To:WalterZaryckyj<[email protected]>
WhyPutinLovesHillary
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/why-putin-loves-hillary/
ThemediaaresheddingcrocodiletearsforHillaryClinton.WhyPutinHatesHillaryistheheadlineoveraPoliticostoryby
MichaelCrowleyandJuliaIoffeaboutthestolenDemocraticNationalCommittee(DNC)emails.Tothecontrary,Russian
PresidentVladimirPutinlovesHillary.Hehastakenadvantageofheronce,intheRussiaReset,andispreparingtotake
advantageofheragain.Sheistheultimatedupe.PutinhasHillaryjustwherehewantsher.HehasaccesstosomeofHillarys
deepestanddarkestsecrets.
TheideathatMrs.ClintonandtheDNChavebeenvictimizedbyPutinisabsurd.ThisisntPutinsfault.ItsthefaultoftheDNC.
Theydidntmaintainsecurityovertheiremailoperations.
But,ofcourse,neitherdidHillary.
PoliticosaysPutinisangryatClintonforchallengingthefairnessofRussianelections.Almostoncue,Timemagazineisoutwith
astorytakingasimilarline.TimesaysPutinismadthatHillaryencouragedprotestsagainsthisrule.Inretaliation,thestorygoes,
hishackersstoletheDNCemails.
TheotherpropagandalinefromthemediaisthatPutinfavorsDonaldJ.TrumpoverHillarybecauseTrumphasbusinessdealsin
Russia,andmayevenbeindebttosomeofPutinsfriends.Accordingtothislogic,whichmakessomesense,Putinhasleverage
overTrump,too.
Therewillbeawaytotestthistheory.

SenatorTomCotton(R-AR),amemberoftheSenateIntelligenceCommittee,suggeststhatTrumpsviewsonRussiamaychange
oncehesbriefedonRussiasaggressiveintentions.ThisisanexcerptofanexchangewithCottonfromaCNBCinterview:
CNBCsJohnHarwood:OneofthequestionsthathasbeenraisedaboutDonaldTrumpis,IshemorefriendlywithRussiathan
itisinAmerica'sbestintereststobe?
SenatorCotton:VladimirPutinwasaKGBspyandhenevergotoverthat.HedoesnothaveAmericasbestinterestsatheart
andhedoesnothaveanyAmericaninterestsatheart.Isuspect,afterthisweek,whenDonaldTrumpisthenomineeandhebegins
toreceiveclassifiedbriefings,similarbriefingstowhatIreceiveasamemberoftheIntelligenceCommittee,hemayhaveadifferent
perspectiveonVladimirPutinandwhatRussiaisdoingtoAmerica'sinterestsandalliesinEuropeandtheMiddleEastandAsia.
WhatCottonissayingisthatTrumpssoft-on-Russiapoliciescould,andshould,changeafterthesebriefingshaveoccurred.Ifthey
donot,thenRepublicanswillhaveaseriousproblemwiththeirnominee.
Ontheotherhand,Mrs.ClintonwasburnedoncebyPutin,duringtheRussianreset,andcouldgetburnedagain.Rememberthat
theAssociatedPressreportedlastOctoberthattheprivateemailserverrunninginHillaryRodhamClintonshomebasementwhen
shewassecretaryofstatewasconnectedtotheInternetinwaysthatmadeitmorevulnerabletohackerswhileusingsoftwarethat
couldhavebeenexploited
FBIDirectorJamesComeyconfirmedthattheemailswereatrisk.Hesaidthatwhileinvestigatorsdidnotfinddirectevidencethat
hostileactorshackedintoMrs.Clintonspersonale-maildomain,giventhenatureofthesystemandoftheactorspotentially
involved,weassessthatwewouldbeunlikelytoseesuchdirectevidence(emphasisadded).Hedidsaythathostileactors
gainedaccesstotheprivatecommerciale-mailaccountsofpeoplewithwhomSecretaryClintonwasinregularcontactfromher
personalaccount.Headded,WealsoassessthatSecretaryClintonsuseofapersonalemaildomainwasbothknownbyalarge
numberofpeopleandreadilyapparent.ShealsousedherpersonalemailextensivelywhileoutsidetheUnitedStates,including
sendingandreceivingwork-relatedemailsintheterritoryofsophisticatedadversaries.Giventhatcombinationoffactors,we
assessitispossiblethathostileactorsgainedaccesstoSecretaryClintonspersonale-mailaccount.
Fromasecuritystandpoint,therefore,onehastoassumethatthesehostileactorsdidinfactgainaccesstoheremailsystem.Those
hostileactorshavetoincludeRussia.Youcannotproceedonanyotherassumption.
InaJuly25editorial,TheWashingtonPostblamedTrumpfortheRussianhackoftheDNC,sayinghehadsomehowgiventhem
themotivationforsuchanattackbecauseofhissoft-on-Russianforeignpolicypositions.ThePostsaidthatRussiafavorsTrump
overHillaryandwantedtosabotagehercandidacywiththeleakoftheDNCemailsontheeveofherconvention.
ButifRussiahasMrs.Clintonsemails,andtheevidencestronglypointsinthatdirection,itcanbesafelyassumedtheyhave
potentialblackmailmaterialtouseagainsther.Thoseemailsprobablyinvolvenotonlyanumberofsensitivegovernmentactivities
butinformationaboutMrs.Clintonpersonally,herfamily,theClintonFoundationandheraides.Thematerialcouldinvolve
informationofafinancialorpersonalnature.
Moscowsjudgment,thePosteditorialclaimed,isthatitstandstoreapageopoliticalwindfallifDonaldTrumpiselected
president.ThatwillonlybethecaseifTrumppersistsinhispro-Russiapolicyandignorestheintelligenceinformationabout
RussiasaggressiveintentionsthatSenatorCottonsayshewillreceive.Trumpstillhastimetoreversecourseonmattersinvolving
Russia,NATOandnationalsecurity.
Bycontrast,MoscowalreadyreapedageopoliticalwindfallwhenHillarywassecretaryofstateandusedtheresettoinvade
UkraineandexpandmilitarilyintotheMiddleEast.Despiteanti-Russianlanguageinthe2016Democraticplatform,Mrs.Clinton
hasshownextremelybadjudgmentonRussiainthepast.Itspossibleshehaschangedherposition.ButPutinhassomuch
potentiallydamaginginformationaboutMrs.ClintoninthoseemailsthatthisformerKGBofficermaythinkhecankeepherinline.
AllthathehastodotokeepaPresidentHillaryClintoninlineisthreatentoreleasesomeofthedamaginginformationalreadyin
hispossession.TheleakscouldcomethroughWikiLeaks,thesourceoftheDNCemails,ortheEdwardSnowdennetwork.
Thesearethechoices:TrumpcanreversecourseandsayanddotherightthingaboutRussia.HillarycantalktoughaboutRussia
duringthecampaignanddoPutinsbiddingunderthreatofblackmailaspresident.
Inshort,Mrs.Clintonisaprovenrisktonationalsecurity.SheisundereffectiveRussiancontrol.Trumpcouldturnouttobea
securityriskifhedeliberatelyignorestheevidenceofhostileRussianintentionsandaggressionthatisbeingpresentedtohim.We
canassumethatSenatorCottonwillfollowuponhiscommentstoCNBCandwatchTrumpforchangesinhisapproachtoRussia.
Americawillalsobewatching.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontacted
[email protected]
From:AntonivFamily<[email protected]>
Subject:ThePutin-TrumpAdmirationSociety/+[ED:PAYSPECIALATTENTIONTOTHEBBCPIECE]
To:
ThePutin-TrumpAdmirationSociety
ByTHEEDITORIALBOARDJULY27,2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/opinion/the-putin-trump-admiration-society.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
...regardlessofwhetherMr.PutinisouttohelpMr.Trump,voterswouldberighttoquestionthejudgmentofa
candidatewhohasshownsomuchadmirationforsuchadangerousadversary.
ReminderaboutBO'judgement(2012).
TheoriginalCNNvideoisnotavailable.T.
Thisismylastelection.AftermyelectionIhavemoreflexibility.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py8BF0hHPnc
...MittRomney,theleadingRepublicanchallengertoMr.Obama,toldanaudienceinSanDiegothatthepresidents
remarkswereanalarmingandtroublingdevelopment.
NewtGingrich,whoistrailingindelegates,alsoseizedonMr.Obamasunguardedquote,tellingCNN,Imcurious:
howmanyothercountrieshasthepresidentpromisedthathedhavealotmoreflexibilitythemorninghedoesnthave
toanswertotheAmericanpeople?
BBCinTrumpdefense."Sovpadenie"?[ED:JUSTTOORICHFORWORDS:NEOSTALINISTCORBYN'S
MEDIACADRESDEFENDINGDONTHE(POSTERBOYBILLIONAIRE)TRUMP..ONBEHALFOF
VLAD????ONLYINDUGIN'SWORLD!!]
ArethereanyTrumplinkstoPutin?
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36862749
From:BostonGlobe.com<[email protected]>
Subject:BreakingNewsAlert:TrumpurgesRussiatofindClinton'se-mails
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
BREAKING
DonaldTrumphasamessageforRussia:FindHillaryClintonse-mails.
InapressconferenceWednesday,TrumppracticallyaskedRussiatohackhis
Democraticrivalse-mailsasheslammedClintonandtheDemocraticPartyover
leakedmessages.
Heissuedaplea:Russia,ifyourelistening,Ihopeyoureabletofindthe30,000
emailsthataremissing.
TrumpalsosaidheknowsnothingaboutthehackoftheDemocraticNational
Committeee-mailsthatsecurityexpertsbelievemayhaveoriginatedinRussia.
Readthefullstory.
Senttime: 07/27/201609:36:43AM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
Subject: ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
AmericansMinds+.[CL/K]Fwd:...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:[email protected]]
Sent:Tuesday,July26,20168:54PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
From:WalterZaryckyj<[email protected]>
Date:Tue,Jul26,2016at11:52PM
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUIS
INVOLVEDINUSELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds+.[CL/K]Fwd:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?[HU]
TrumpWouldMakeRussiaGreatAgain|NYDailyNews..[ADDFROMWD]AHORBULINCLASSIC:FIVE
SCENARIOSFORRU-UARELATIONS...
To:RomaHadzewycz<[email protected]>,rl<[email protected]>
From:MiraKyzyk<[email protected]>
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html?
via=mobile&source=twitter
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds/+
To:

RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack
Russiasintelligenceserviceshavealonghistoryofminglingsinisterfictionwithshardsoffactandleakingthrough
thirdpartiestocovertheirtracks.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html
AnneApplebaum
this@FTarticlealsonotesrecentCzech,GermanhackingscandalsmaybelinkedtoRussia
Democratshacked:RussiatrailseesMoscowaccusedofwideraims
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e0b9a84-5278-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60.html#axzz4FSQFQVYI
...
...EversinceRussianhackersattemptedinMay2014tocorrupttheresultsoftheUkrainianpresidentialelection,
therehasbeengrowingconcernamongwesternintelligenceagenciesovertheKremlinsapparentglovesoff
approachwhenitcomestopoliticalsubversion.
ThosefearswerecompoundedjustonemonthlaterinJunethatyear,whentapesofsensitiveandexpletiveladen
conversationsbetweenseniorPolishpoliticianswereleaked,sinkingthehopesofRadoslawSikorski,thehawkish
formerforeignminister,foraseniorEUrole.
InJanuarythisyear,accordingtotheintelligenceofficial,emailshackedfromtheprimeministeroftheCzech
RepublicwerereleasedtopublicembarrassmentinanoperationthathadthefingerprintsofRussianagents.
AndinMay,theheadofGermanysdomesticintelligenceagency,theBfV,saidAPT28wasresponsiblefora
massiveattackontheGermanparliamentaswellasasustainedespionageoperationagainsttheCDUtheruling
partyofAngelaMerkel.
ThereallybigdeparturehereisthatthisisaverydirectinvolvementinUSdomesticpoliticsofakindthateven
undertheKGBwasonlyevercontemplatedonthemargins,saysJonathanEyal,internationaldirectoratthethink-
tankRusi.
Thereisnoway,saysMrEyal,thatsuchoperationswouldnotbeco-ordinatedandassessedwithinRussiafroma
centralauthorityattheveryhighestlevel.
Butwhatthisreallypointsto,MrEyalnotes,isthatthereisafeelinginMoscowthattheyarewinninginthis
confrontationwiththewest.Andtheyseenoreasonwhytheyshouldletup.
Exclusive:SuspectedRussianhackofDNCwidensincludespersonalemailofstaffer
researchingManafort
http://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-hacked-emails-of-dnc-oppo-researcher-point-to-russians-and-wider-penetration-
154121061.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
POLITICO
PriebusonDNCleak:'TheRussiansdidn'twritetheemails'http://politi.co/2akQu6H|
Subject:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<[email protected]>
WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/what-does-putin-have-on-hillary/
AndrewRosenthalofTheNewYorkTimesexaminesthequestionofwhohackedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeand
whetherthetrailleadstoRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.WeknowfromreliablereportingthatRussianhackersarenot
independentactors,andthattheyhavebeenbusy,hewrites.Anditseerie,atbest,thatJulianAssangesWikiLeakschosethis
momenttoreleasethestolenemails(andcompleteastrangetrianglethatrunsfromhimtoPutintoEdwardSnowden).
Forhispart,onhisTwitterpage,Snowdensaid,IfRussiahackedthe#DNC,theyshouldbecondemnedforit.Butduringthe
#Sonyhack,theFBIpresentedevidence.
ThisisfunnyonSnowdenspart.SnowdensitsinRussia,aguestofPutin,andAssangehasactedlikeanagentofRussia.Trevor
LoudonsreportonAssangedocumentshisservicetoMoscowandassociationswithanumberofMarxistorpro-Russiangroups.
Snowdenisprobablypersonallyinvolvedintheleakandcouldeasilygettothebottomofwhyithappened.
ThishastheappearanceofaforeignpowerdirectlyinterferinginanAmericanelection,andthatsnotsomethingtotakelightly,
NoahRothmanwritesinCommentary.Hegoeson,Ratherthanapplaudandleveragethisdevelopment,ashehas,DonaldTrump
wouldbemuchbetterservedbycondemningit.IftheRussiansaresetonunderminingtheDemocraticPartyinthiselection,it
wontbelongbeforethepublicisaskedtoconsiderwhythatmightbe.
Rothmanhasapoint,butthemoreimportantissueiswhytheDNCandthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonusedprivateor
unsecureserversthatwereopentotheseforeignadversaries.OnecanarguethatMrs.Clinton,inparticular,invitedthisforeign
meddlingintheelection.WhoknowswhattheRussiansstillhaveintheirbagoftricks?ThepointisthatMrs.Clintonisasecurity
riskandtheRussiansmaystillhaveemailstouseagainsther.
Pro-PutincommentatorDonHankreportedbackinJune,Iwasinvitedtoparticipateinaconversationamongagroupoffriends
whoarehopingthattheKremlinwillturnovertheircacheofHillaryemailsobtainedviatheRomanianhackerGucciferjustin
timetosmearherpriortotheNovemberelection.
Evenearlier,CatherineHerridgeofFoxNewsreportedbackinMaythattheRomanianhackerknownasGucciferhadclaimed
heeasilyandrepeatedlybreachedformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonspersonalemailserverinearly2013.TheClinton
campaigndeniedthecharge,butHerridgereportedthatGuccifersaidhefirstcompromisedClintonconfidantSidney
Blumenthal'sAOLaccount,inMarch2013,andusedthatasasteppingstonetotheClintonserver.
Gucciferhasbeenindictedbyafederalgrandjuryonchargesofwirefraud,unauthorizedaccesstoaprotectedcomputer,
aggravatedidentitytheft,cyberstalkingandobstructionofjustice.
Mrs.ClintonsemailsmaybeevenmorevaluablethanthedocumentsstolenandreleasedbySnowden.Afterall,Clintonsemails
discussedtheintentionsofU.S.policymakers.
ThisisactuallyanoldstoryinvolvingtheClintons.AsReedIrvineandIreportedbackin1998,theKenStarrreportonPresident
ClintonrevealedthatClintonhadwarnedhissexualplaythingMonicaLewinsky,aWhiteHouseintern,thataforeigngovernment
maybemonitoringtheirtelephoneconversationsandthattheyshouldconcoctacoverstorytoexplainthem.Hereisexactlywhat
theStarrreportsaysaboutthismatter:AccordingtoMs.Lewinsky,sheandthePresidenthadalengthyconversationthatday.He
toldherthathesuspectedthataforeignembassy(hedidnotspecifywhichone)wastappinghistelephones,andheproposed
coverstories.Ifeverquestioned,sheshouldsaythatthetwoofthemwerejustfriends.Ifanyoneeveraskedabouttheirphone
sex,sheshouldsaythattheyknewtheircallswerebeingmonitoredallalong,andthephonesexwasjustaput-on.
Nothinghasreallychanged,exceptthatemailshavenowbeenmonitoredandcompromisedinMrs.Clintonscase.
AswesaidbackinMay,Theevidencedemonstratesthatsheisafull-blownsecurityriskwhoshouldbeindictedforherreckless
criminalconductasSecretaryofState.Hillarymadeherselfintoasecurityrisk.
Nowwearewaitingforthenextshoetodrop.DoesithavesomethingtodowithBillClinton,theClintonFoundation,orHillarys
ownpersonalscandals?
Whateverthescandal,itsnotthefaultofDonaldJ.Trump.Trumpmayhavesomethingtoexplainregardinghisowntiestothe
Kremlin,butsodoesHillary.IfthetruthdoesntcomeoutbeforeElectionDay,itmeansthatMoscowmayhaveblackmailpower
overthepossiblefirstfemalepresidentoftheUnitedStates.
From:hunter@
Date:Tue,Jul26,2016at11:55AM
Subject:TrumpwouldmakeRussiagreatagain--NYDailyNewsEditorial
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/trumprussiagreatarticle1.2725698
MakeRussiagreatagain:WhetherornotRussianshackedtheDNCtoaidDonaldTrump,
theRepublicannomineeisdangerouslyfondofVladimirPutin
EDITORIALS
NEWYORKDAILYNEWS
Tuesday,July26,2016,4:10AM
Deeplydisturbingbutasyetunconfirmed:ThatRussianhackersmayhavebrokenintoDemocraticNational
CommitteecomputersfortheexpresspurposeofboostingthecampaignofDonaldTrump.
Knownbeyondanyreasonabledoubt:Trumpandhisteamhaveaperverseadmirationforandaseriesofstrange
relationshipswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandapro-Russianworld-viewthatrunsagainstthebest
interestsofAmericaintheworld.
TheWikiLeaks-facilitatedbreachoftheDNC,whichproducedmountainsofembarrassingrevelationsforthe
committeeandforcedtheresignationofChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultzloomslargeas
DemocratsgatherinPhiladelphiathisweek.
TheFBIsuspectsRussianintelligenceagencieswerebehindthemischief.Theymighthavebeenfreelancingthey
mighthavebeendoingtheRussianstrongmansbiddingtohelpelectTrump.
RichardA.Clarke:WhyPutinandISISwantTrumptowin
TheprospectofaforeignpowerwithinterestsoftendiametricallyopposedtooursmeddlinginanAmerican
presidentialelectioninthismannershouldmakevotersshudder.
Buthackornohack,TrumpsromanticviewofPutin,amanwhowantsnothingmorethantoexpandhissphereof
influenceandseeU.S.powerwane,iswell-established.Trump,whohasafetishforstrongmenofallstripes,has
repeatedlyheapedpraiseontherepressive,anti-democratic,expansionistPutinafriendtoregimesinIranand
Syriacallinghimamanhighlyrespectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.
WhenchallengedonthefactthatPutinkillsjournalists,politicalopponents,andinvadescountries,Trumpreplied,
Atleasthesaleader.
LastSeptember,whenFoxNewsBillOReillyaskedTrumpaboutPutinsmilitaryadventureinSyria
involvementadvertisedasanti-ISISthatwasinfactintendedtokillrebelschallengingRussianclientBasharAssad
TrumpsaidofPutin,whohadpraisedhim,Intermsofleadership,hesgettinganA.
Debbie,DonnaandtheDNC
Basedonthismutualadmirationsociety,itshouldcomeasnosurprisethatTrumphasexpressedwillingnessto
leaveNATOalliestwistinginthewind.AsNATOisthesinglegreatestcheckonRussianaggression,thatisagift
toPutin.
OrthatTrumpistasnixedaRepublicanplatformamendmentsettoincludestrongsupportforsendingAmerican
weaponstoUkrainetocounterRussianaggression.TopTrumpadviserPaulManafortwhoforthebetterpartof
adecadeworkedasatopaidetoformerUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovych,aPutinstoogesawtoit.
TherearefartoomanydotsconnectingTrumpandRussiatoavoidsteppingbackandseeingthewholescary
picture.
IsitacoincidencethatRussianstate-controlledmediaarecheeringonTrumpateveryturn?
IsitacoincidencethattopTrumpforeignpolicyadviserMichaelFlynn,aformergeneralvettedforaspotonhis
ticket,satnearPutinatacelebrationfortheRussianpropagandaoutletRT?
IsitacoincidencethatTrumpsbusinesshasincreasinglyreliedonloansfromRussiansources,and,in2008,
DonaldTrumpJr.toldarealestateconferencethatRussiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecrosssectionofa
lotofourassets?
PutinslonggameistoweakenEuropeanddominatetheregion.Thatswhyhehassupportedandloaned
moneytoright-wingpopulistsaroundEurope:MarineLePeninFrance,SilvioBerlusconiinItaly,andanti-EU
partiesinGreece,HungaryandBulgaria.RussianpropagandaorganscelebratedBritainsexitfromtheEU.
TrumpalsopraisedBrexitandthisweekendignorantlyinsultedtheEuropeanUnion,whoseprecursorwasborn
in1952toensureawar-torncontinentcouldliveinpeace,bysayingitwasfoundedtobeattheU.S.atmaking
money.
Inshort:VladimirPutinsinterestsjusthappentobeDonaldTrumps.Stopandletthatsinkin.
From:WalterDerzko<[email protected]>
Subject:AnotherHorbulinclassicworthasecondlook/read>VolodymyrHorbulin........FivescenariosforUkraine-
Russiarelations
To:[email protected],wolodymyrzarycky<[email protected]>,[email protected]
VolodymyrHorbulinFivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
VolodymyrHorbulin
FivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
IthasbeenmorethanayearaftertheRussianannexationoftheCrimeaandthebeginningofthearmed
aggressioninthesouth-easternregionsofDonbas.
DespitetheattemptsofsomepoliticianstopresenttheeventsinUkraineasanexclusivelyinternalconflict
orcivilwar,itbecomesmoreandmoredifficulttowithholdorrefusetorecognizetheobviousfactof
participationinthisconflictofregularunitsoftheArmedForcesofRussiaorsupportofterroristic
organizationsoperatinginDonbasbyRussia.
Infact,forallthistimepeopleofUkrainehavebeenresistingtheaggressionofoneofthelargest
countriesintheworld,defendingtheirterritory,freedomandindependence.Kremlinsblitzkriegfailed.
TheideathatthewholeUkrainefromtheeastoftheDniprodreamsofrevivingthealliancewiththe
formermetropolis,thatUkrainianindependenceisanartificialphenomenon,thatUkrainianshaveno
patriotismturnedouttobeamyth.InsteadofthevictoriousunificationoftheRussianland,the
Kremlinreceivedhugeeconomiclosses,distrustofthecivilizedworld,acatastrophiclossofthe
internationalprestigeandthegrowthofanti-Russiansentimentsintheworld.
Thecurrentsituationisastalematethereisneitherpeacenorwar.Allpartiessuffersignificantlosses.
Ukraineisplaguedbytheongoingconflictonitsterritory.Russiaisburdenedwiththeparticipationinthe
conflict,themaintenanceofunprofitableannexedCrimea,aswellaswithinternationalsanctions.Finally,
WesterncountriessuffersignificantlyfromtheseveranceofeconomictieswithRussia.
Whatcanbethefurtherdevelopmentoftheevents?Letustrytooutlinepossiblescenarios.Inourview,
therearefivebasicscenarios,threeofthemareradical,andtwoareintermediatecompromise.
Thefirstradicalscenario(scenarioof"totalwar").ItispossibleincaseifRussiangovernmentwillmake
adecisiontolaunchopenmilitaryaggressiontoobtainalandcorridortotheCrimeaandtoreceive
unhinderedaccesstoitsmilitarycontingentinTransnistria.Inthiscase,Ukrainewillbedeprivedofthe
choiceofapossiblesettlementinDonbas,andwillbeforcedtodefenditsindependence,usingall
availableresources.DevelopmentsinsuchascenariowouldmeanfullmilitarizationofUkrainiansociety
economic,political,culturalandideologicalpropagandaandmobilizationimpositionofmartiallaw
maximumself-reliance,
duetotheinevitableinternationalisolation,atleastintheearlystagesofanall-outwaranda
correspondingreductionofflowsofexternalresourcesuncompromisingfocusonthedestructionofthe
enemyattacksagainstcriticalinfrastructureoftheenemyactiveguerrillaandsabotageactivitiesdenial
orminimizationofdiplomaticandforeigneconomiccooperationwiththeenemygovernmentandits
satellitesacompletesubordinationofthearmedforcestodiplomacyandmilitarypropaganda.
Ukrainehasachancetowinthetotalwar,asitisopposedtothecountrywithlimitedtechnologicaland
financialresourceslow"marginofsafety"ofthepoliticalsystempopulationcharacterizedbyinherent
negativedemographicdynamicsandtheinabilitytoresisttheaggressivenationalminoritiesobsolete
army.TheresistanceoftheUkrainianpeopletotheRussianaggression,eventuallywillreturndisposition
oftheworldleadingpowers,aswellasdeepentheinternationalisolationofRussia.Moreover,inthe
conditionsoftotalwarmilitaryactionsoftheRussiasterritorywilldemoralizeanddemotivatethenation.
InthecaseofRussia'sdefeatinthiswar,theissueofDonbasandtheCrimeaownershipwillbewillbe
finallyresolved.Ukrainewillgetridofthe"fifthcolumn"ofopensupportersofthe"Russianworld".It
willgetitsown"heroicepos"asabasisforthepatrioticeducationoffuturegenerations.Mostofthe
issuesintheUkrainian-Russianrelationswillbefinallysettled,andthehistoricalpathsofthetwonations
willpartforever,andthelevelofantagonismwillreachitspeak.
EveninthecaseofseizureoftheUkrainianterritorybytheRussianarmy,thewarwillnotbeoverthe
guerrillamovementandsubversiveactivitiesagainsttheoccupierswillcontinue.Accordingtothis
scenario,therewillcometheinevitableinterventionoftheWestintheconflictinanyform,the
introductionofnewseveresanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation,thetotalpoliticalisolationofthe
Russianleadership,andperhaps,theexclusionoftheRussianFederationfromtheUNSecurityCouncil
andotherinternationalorganizations.Ontheotherhand,thepriceofvictorywillbedestroyed
infrastructureandeconomicpotentialofUkraine,numerousvictimsamongthecivilianandmilitaries.
ItshouldbenotedthatUkraine'stotalwarispurelydefensive.Itdoesnotnecessarilyleadtomass
casualtiesonthecontrary,thereadinessforsuchwarwilldetertheaggressorwithfearofsignificant
lossesandthethreatoftransferofhostilitiestoitsterritory.Themottoofthedefensivewarisunderstood
as"totalmobilizationintosurvive",anditspurposeis"todropthesuperiorforcesoftheaggressorback
onitsownterritorybyinflictinghimmaximumdemotivatinglosses".
Thisscenarioisthemostheroicandsacrificialbutatthesametimetheleastlikelyone.NeitherUkrainian
norRussianpeoplewanttofight.Nobodywantstolosethebenefitsofmodern,peacefullifeforthesake
ofwhimsofahandfulofpoliticaladventurers.
Ingeneral,thescenariooftotalwarisaimedatUkrainesvictoryandpreservationofitsterritorial
integrity.Historyknowsmanyexamplesofsuccessfulviscidsemi-guerrillawarsofsmallandmedium-
sizedstatesagainstlargerandmuchmorepowerfulones.However,thisscenariocanbringnotonly
victorybutalsosignificantlossestothecountry.
Inanycase,suchascenarioisnotthegoalforUkraine.Thegovernmentwillbeforcedtofollowitonly
whenRussiastartsafull-scaleopenattack.
Thesecondradicalscenario("cut-off"or"thewall"scenario)suggestsUkrainesultimateabandonment
oftheoccupiedterritoriesandacompletebreakupwiththem.Thefurtherhistoricalfateofthese
territorieswillbesignificantforUkraineonlyintermsofensuringitsownsecurity,namely,thepowerof
defensivestructuresandasufficientlevelofisolationoftheselands.Foracertainperiod,Ukrainian
statehoodwillneedreformattingandabilitytoadapttothecurrentsituation.However,thisperiodwillbe
relativelypainlessforUkrainebecauseoftheabsenceofregionsdominatedbyrenegadeandconsumer
sentiments,higherdensityandloyaltyoftheUkrainiansociety,favorableconditionsforthecountry's
reformandinternationalassistance.GeorgiaandMoldovastillexistevenafterhavingsufferedsevere
territoriallossesSerbiacontinuesitshistoricpathevenbeingdeprivedofitshistoricalland.
TheimplementationofthisscenariowouldinevitablycausedamagetoUkrainesprestigeinthe
internationalarena.Thisscenarioisalsobeneficialfortherepresentativesofthelocalsemi-criminal
oligarchy,which,inparticular,feedsoncross-bordercrimeandcorruption,aswellasforthepost-Soviet
underclasswhoearntheirlivingbylow-skilledlaborabroad(includingthecountry-aggressor).The
currentscenarioimpliestheuncompromising"amputation"ofanyrelationsandtheerectionofa
"protectivewall"aroundthenew"areasofsocialandpoliticalexclusion."RelationswithRussia,intheir
turn,shouldbereducedtoaminimum,whichsuggestsapossibleextensionofthe"securitywall"across
theRussian-Ukrainianborder.
Thecompliancewiththetotalisolationoftheoccupiedterritorieswillbeextremelydifficulttoensure.In
suchconditions,terroristswillfeelfreefromtheobligationsundertheMinskAgreementandwillcontinue
toattackUkrainian
territories,preventingtheinfrastructureofthenewborderfrombeingarranged.Inaddition,theexistence
of"holes"intheborderwillbeofgreatinterestforvariouscriminalelementswhogainprofitsfrom
smuggling,drugtrafficking,humantrafficking,illegalmigration,etc.
Thepossibilitytoimplementthisscenarioisbasedonthesignificantmentalgapbetweencertain
inhabitantsofthetemporarilyoccupiedDonbasandthemajorityoftheUkrainiansociety.Thelong-
lastinginfluenceofRussianpropagandaonthemindsofthosepeopleformedthemistakenideaofthe
possiblerestorationoftheSovietUnionwithRussia'shelpthosepeoplewereaccustomedtohatred
towardseverythingUkrainianandbroughtuptheyoungergenerationinthesamespirit.Disregardforthis
problemcontributedtothetragicconsequencesoftheannexationoftheCrimeaandtheoccupationofa
partoftheDonbas.NowadaystheUkrainiansocietyfrequentlywonderswhetheritisworthtocontinue
thestrugglefortheterritorydestroyedduringthearmedconflictandtheatrocitiesofRussianinvaders,
takingintoaccountthattheremainingpopulationofthoseterritoriesexpressesnodesiretoreturnunder
Ukrainianjurisdiction.Thisquestionbecomesespeciallyurgentduetothederivedbarriersonthewayto
Europeanintegrationanddelaysinthefurtherdemocraticreforms.Thescenarioofthecomplete
abandonmentoftheseparatistregionsisassociatedwiththelossofapartofthestateterritoryand
prestige.Moreover,itimpliesalongadaptationperiod.
Thethirdradicalscenario("satellite"scenario)suggeststhatUkrainewillsearchforthewaystoconclude
aseparatepeacewithRussiaonfavorableterms,willneglectinterestsofWesternpartners,recognizethe
Donbasautonomy,andrefusetoturnbacktheCrimea.SuchreconciliationwilldepriveUkrainesforeign
policyofindependenceandwilltieitshistoricalfatewiththeRussianFederation.Thepossiblecommon
futureoftwostatesisunlikelytodifferfromwhathadhappenedbeforeinthehistoryofbothnations,but
thewaythelosses,war,andrepressionhappenagain.TheUkrainianstatehasmanyproblemsofitsown
tocomplementtheproblemsoftheRussianstate.Inparticular,theaggravationofdomesticsocial
conflicts,thegrowthofreligiousfundamentalismandregionalseparatism,theeconomiccollapseofthe
resource-rich,buttechnologicallybackwardcountrywillhaveaninevitabledevastatingimpacton
Ukraine.
AsignificantthreattotheUkrainiansocietyisthepossibilityofitsinvolvementinanotherRussian
imperialadventure(fortheprevioustwotheRomanovempireandtheSovietUnionUkrainianshad
alreadypaidmillionsofvictims).Thisadventureinvolvesahopelessandlosingconfrontationwiththe
worldleading
nations(primarilytheUnitedStatesandtheEuro-Atlanticcommunity),andtherefore,newlosses,new
conflicts,andnewhistoricalturningpoints.
ItisclearthatsuchascenariomeetsneitherthenationalinterestsofUkrainenortheaspirationsofthe
Ukrainianpeople,whoclearlystatedtheirEuropeanchoiceattheendof2013,payingahighpriceofthe
lostlivesontheMaidan.
Thisscenarioishistoricallysuicidalandpoliticallymeaningless.RussianEmpirewillneverbeformed
completelyitwillalwaysbe"gettingonitsfeet,"or"gettingupfromitsknees".Theseeffortswillbe
followedbymillionsofvictimsandlossesofhistoricallyunprecedentedamountsofresourcesinwars,
famine,andrepressions.Anattempttoresolvetheconflictinsuchascenariowillcausemassprotestsin
Ukraine,whichwillspilloverintoanewMaidandemandingtheresignationoftheUkrainianleadership.
Thecountrywilleventuallybecomecompletelydestabilized.Thissituationwillcreateidealconditionsfor
Moscow'sinterventionintheinternalaffairsofUkraineandthecontinuationofRussianaggression.
Thefourthscenario("freezing"scenario)liesinthe"freezing"oftheconflictasitwasinTransnistria,
Abkhazia,orSouthOssetia.ThisdecisionisofsignificantinterestforRussia(however,thetotal
surrenderprovidedbythethirdscenariowillsuitittoagreaterextent),aswellasforsomecountriesof
theEUandthemostconformistandpro-RussianlayersoftheEuropeansociety.
Theessenceofthisscenarioliesinthattheconflict-affectedterritoriesofso-calledDNRandLNRwill
remainthepartsofUkraine,perhaps,onconditionofgivingthemspecialpowers.Economictiesbetween
theseterritoriesandtherestofUkraineshouldberestored,whichmeansthatUkrainewillhavetoassume
theeconomicburdenofreconstructionofdestroyedareasofDonbas.Atthesametime,thepuppet
regimecontrolledbyRussiawilldefactooperateinDonbaspursuingtheinterestsofanotherstate.
Russia,thus,willtrytoinfluencetheUkrainianforeignanddomesticpolicy.
ItisobviousthatthisscenariosuggeststhatUkrainewillsignificantlyslowdownonitswaytoEurope,
and"affected"dependentregionswillbecomeanewsourceofpoliticalinstabilityandeconomicburden
forUkraine.Atthesametime,oneshouldnotexpectaquietlife,becausetheconflictwillfurthersmolder
destabilizingthesituationbythethreattoreturntotheactivephase.
Atthesametime,thecessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbasand"reconciliation"impliedbythis
scenariowillgiveEuropeancountriesanexcuseforliftingthesanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation
anditspoliticalleaders,whichwillleadto
therestorationofeconomictiesandboosteconomicgrowthinRussia.However,theEuropeanleaders
willbeabletoturntheirattentiontothesolutionofproblemswithintheEUthatwillcontributetothe
growthoftheirpoliticalratings,asopposedtostrengtheningthe"fatigue"fromthecontinuationofthe
Russian-Ukrainianconflict.
DespitethefactthatthisscenariosuggestsaratherrapidcessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbas,Ukraine
willremainanunattractivestateofpermanentcrisiswithasignificantnumberofrepresentativesofvarious
internationalorganizations,humanitarianaidtrafficking,theenormousturnoverofsmugglingofillegal
weapons,drugsandthousandsof"bluehelmets"placedatthedemarcationline.Theperiodofthe
"frozen"formoftheconflictisunknown,aswellasitsresults.Historicalexperienceshowsthatwecan
talkaboutdecades,andasaresult,Ukrainewillreturntowhereitbegan,startinganewroundof
antagonism.
Ingeneral,theimplementationofthisscenariowillsatisfytheinterestsofbothRussiaandtheEU,butnot
ofUkraine,especiallyinthelongtermperspective.
Thefifthscenario("neitherwarnorpeace"or"limitedwarandpermanentnegotiation"scenario)provides
alimiteddeterrentwarintheEastagainstRussiaandthecollaboratorswiththeaimtoinflictthem
maximumdemotivatinglossespermanentnegotiatingprocess,butwithoutthefinalresultsreflectedina
varietyofarrangementsandformatsbuild-upofthemilitarypotentialofUkraine(primarilyofthe
military-technological)andthegradualtransitionfromblockingoftheopponenttohisdisplace,the
transitionfrompassivetoactivedefensetheincreaseoftheinternationalsanctionsanddiplomatic
isolationofRussiaconsistentandradicalreformationoftheUkrainiansocietyrapprochementwith
NATOandtheEuropeanUnionandtheformationofanumberofdefenseallianceswiththepost-Soviet
andCentralEuropeancountries.
Therealizationofthisscenariowillrequirepoliticalskillsandmentalendurance,aswellasthepresenceof
therapidreactionforcesandspecialoperationsforces,flexibleandcreativediplomacy,delicateand
"acrimonious"propaganda.
Despiterequiringmuchtime,skillsandpatienceforitsimplementation,thisscenariomakesitpossibleto
achievemaximumresultswithminimumlossesoflife.
Asitcanbeseen,noneofthescenariosshouldbeexcluded.Theyallcontaingreaterorlesserriskstothe
UkrainianpeopleandtheUkrainianstate.Thereareneitheridealoptionsnorsimplesolutions.An
importanttaskistofindtheoptimalbalanceofinterestsofallthepartiestotheconflict.
Althoughthescenariooftheconflicts"freezing"isundesirableandhistoricallyunpromisingforUkraine,
itispossiblethatundertheinfluenceofinternalandexternalcircumstancesUkrainewillhavetoagreeto
thisscenario.Inthiscase,thebalanceofinterestsshouldlieinthefactthatUkraineagreestotakecertain
risksonlyprovidedthatanumberofrequirementsaretakenintoaccountasriskabsorbers.
Firstly,theterritoriescapturedbypro-RussiancollaboratorsandRussianinvadersaretemporarily
withdrawnfromtheUkrainianjurisdictionandareputundertheinternationaljurisdiction.Ukrainestopsto
fulfillanyobligationstothosewhodecidedtostayonitsterritories,andthegeneraladministrationof
theseterritoriesisexercisedbythebodycomposedofrepresentativesofinternationalorganizationsand
thestatesconcerned.Anyeconomiccontactswiththeoccupiedterritoriesareceased,includingthe
supplyoffood,energyandetc.HumanitarianaidisprovidedonlyundertheauspicesoftheUNandthe
RedCross.
Secondly,Ukrainereservestheexclusiverighttodecideontherestorationofitsterritorialintegrityandto
carryoutthisrestorationinthemostappropriatetimeandthemostappropriateway.
Thirdly,thestatusoftheterritoriesoccupiedbyRussiaandcapturedbyterroristscanonlybetemporary
andshouldnotbereflectedintheConstitution.TheissueofconflictresolutioninDonbashasnothingto
dowiththequestionofthestatesystemofUkraineatleastbecausethefirstiscausedbytheexternal
aggression,andthesecondisapurelydomesticmatter.
Fourthly,ifthelocalDonbascollaborators,membersofbanditgroupsandotherpartnersoftheRussian
aggressionwerenotinvolvedinviolentcrimes(primarilyagainsthumanity),theyshouldbesubjectsto
amnesty.Amnestiedpersonsaredeprivedoftherighttoholdadministrativepositionsatalllevelsinthe
temporarilyoccupiedterritoriesofDonbasandthewholeUkraine.
Fifthly,thedemarcationlineisestablishedonaproportionalbasis,andeachofthewarringpartiesretains
controloverthemainpopulationcentersintheneutralline.DonetskandLuganskaredeclaredopenand
demilitarizedcitiesundertheinternationalcontrol.Themajorbordercrossingpointsonthepartofthe
Ukrainian-Russianborder,whicharetemporarilycontrolledbytheRussiaanditscollaborators,should
receivethesamestatus.
Sixthly,themilitarycontingent,whichwilldividethewarringparties,mustbecomposedprimarilyofthe
representativesofthearmedforcesofthosecountrieswhoseleaderswilldecidetocreateanew
TransnistriaandbuypeaceinEuropeat
thecostofUkrainianterritory.Moreover,Ukrainemustdemandthecreationofatleastthree,andnotone
(liketoday),militaryteamstogetherwiththecountriesofNATOthoseteamsshouldbelocatedaround
theareaofthefrozenconflictinthecitiesofKharkov,Dnipropetrovsk,Zaporizhzhia,Odessa,and
Mykolaiv.
Ukrainianterritoryshouldbecometheplaceofpermanentandcontinuousjointmilitarytraining,especially
withthoseNATOmember-countries,whichcanteachtheofficersandsoldiersofourarmy.
Seventhly,theUkrainiansidecontinuestodevelopandmodernizeitsarmedforcesandreservestheright
tousethemtosaveandrestoreitssovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Ukrainewillframeitsmilitary
doctrineandmilitarypolicyinaccordancewiththenationalinterestsandprotectitscitizensonthewhole
territory,includingthetemporarilyoccupiedone.
Eighthly,Ukrainereceiveseconomiccompensationforitswillingnesstopreventalargemainland,and
perhapsevenaworldwaratthecostoftemporarylossofthepartofitsownterritory.Wearetalking
abouttheexpandedlendingtothenationaleconomy,promotionofinvestmentintheUkrainianagro-
industrialandmilitary-industrialcomplexes,inclusioninthepan-Europeanprogramofscientific,
technologicalandregionaldevelopment,providingadditionaltradingopportunitiesandassistanceintheir
implementation,assistanceinthefieldofenergysecurity.
Ninthly,theUkrainianstatereceivespoliticalcompensation,whichwillensurethestateindependenceand
definetheprospectsofUkrainesmembershipinNATOandtheEuropeanUnion.
ThoserequirementsoftheUkrainiansidemaybecomethebasisforfurtherlengthynegotiations,whichin
practicewouldmeannowar,nopeacestatewheretofightiswhichthefightisimpracticalandtoput
upisinappropriate.
Whilesolvingtheproblemsofthesouth-easternpartsofUkrainianDonbasandtheCrimea,oneshould
takeintoaccounttheinternationalcontextasmuchaspossible.Bothissuesareunlikelytobefinally
resolvedwithoutthecomprehensivetransformationofthepost-Sovietspaceandtheresolutionofthe
territorialconflictinKarabakh,Transnistria,Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia.Thereturnofthoseregionsto
thenationalstatesmaybeprecededbytheirtemporarytransferunderinternationaladministration.Butfor
thetimebeingUkraineshouldstarttopromotebydiplomaticandpropagandameanstheideaof
holdinganinternationalconferenceonpeaceandarrangingofthepost-Sovietspace.Itisrelevantinthis
contexttobringtogethertheeffortsofUkraine,Georgia,Moldova
andAzerbaijanwithinGUAMasarenewedregionalorganizationwithasignificantpotential.
TheissueoftheCrimeaoritsreturntoUkrainewillremainopenforalongtime.Itisclearthatthe
annexationofthepeninsulawillnotberecognizedbytheworldcommunity,anditwillcontinueits
isolatedexistenceasthepartoftheRussianFederation,whichhasnochancetolegitimizethisnew
territorialacquisitionattheinternationallevel.Ithastopaythepeopleforloyalty,tosuppressandatthe
sametimetrytobribeCrimeanTatars,toinvestininfrastructureprojectsand,moreimportantly,tospend
hugeamountsofmoneyonthemaintenanceoftheenormousmilitarybaseandthesignificantcontingent
oftroopswhichshouldprotectthisperipheralbranchofthelandintheclosedseaofallegedabuseof
NATOandUkrainesrightlyaspirations.
Ukrainewillnotreturnthislostregioninthenearestfuture.Itmaybepossibleonlyincasesome
unexpectedwonderoccurs,likeaninstantcollapseoftheRussianFederationortheUkrainianeconomic
miracle.ItisclearthatthedifficultpathofthereturnoftheCrimeaisahead,andnotallUkrainiansare
readytoovercomeitbecausemanyofthemfeelamoralaversiontothemajorityofthepopulationofthe
peninsulaanddonotconsiderthepeninsulaalandworthspillingbloodandenduringhardships.Thatis
whyiswillbenecessarytoconvincenotonlytheCrimeanpeoplebutalsoUkrainians.Thereturnofthe
Crimearemainsratherastatethannationalmatter.InUkraine,fewpeoplebelievethatitisnecessaryto
implementeconomicreformssolelyinordertobecomerich,topleasetheinhabitantsofthelost
peninsulaandtopersuadethemtoreturn.Ukrainiansfeelmoralobligationsandresponsibilitymainlyin
relationtotheCrimeanTatars,whosufferedthemost.Theyremaintheonlyindigenousnationofthe
Crimea,whichhadtherighttoself-determinationinaccordancewiththeinternationallaw,butwasnot
goingtouseit,beingapartofUkraine.NowtheindigenouspeopleoftheCrimeafacethethreatofanew
deportationcomingfromthecurrentillegalgovernmentoftheCrimea.
TheissueoftheCrimeahasthreeimportantvalueandnormativeaspects.Firstly,theannexationofthe
peninsulacauseddamagenotonlytotheresourcebaseandpower-forcepotentialofUkrainebutalsoto
itspublicprestigeandthemoralconditionofcitizens.Secondly,theannexationsignificantlyundermined
theworldorderduetotherejectionoftheprincipleofthebordersinviolability(theonethatprevailedin
internationalrelationsaftertheSecondWorldWar)aswellasduetobrazenimpudentviolationofthe
sovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofamemberoftheworldcommunity.Therefore,theproblemofthe
Crimearegardtothelatter,
evenmorethantoUkraineitself.Thirdly,theannexationhasshownasurprisingunityoftheRussian
society,bymakingthissocietycollectivelyresponsibleforthecrime.Evenasignificantpartoftheso-
calledoppositionwelcomedtheseizure,mitigatingitsimmoralandillegalpositionbytherequirementof
anotherreferendumonjoiningtheCrimeatoRussia.
DifficultiesofthereturnofthelostterritoriesshouldnotdemoralizetheUkrainianstateandpeople,
generatedespairanddistractfromtheconstantandlaboriouswork(diplomatic,military,and
propagandistic)forthereturn.Eventoday,itisclearthatthisprocesswilllastforlong.However,itis
immoralandshort-sightedtofreezetherestorationoftheterritorialintegrityandtoputthis
responsibilityontheshouldersoffuturegenerations.Inparticular,theattemptstounderstandtheproblem
intermsofbipolarityconsideringtheUkraine'sseparationlinefromthelostterritories,somethinglikea
newBerlinWall,causecertainobjections.Todaywecanhearthecallstowaitforthetimewhenthe
changeintheglobalandregionaldistributionofforcesoccurs,andwhenUkrainereachesamuchhigher
levelofdevelopment.Thus,thereoccursatransfertoaratherpeculiarsituationoftheUkrainianscenario
ofthereunificationofGermanyaftertheendofColdWar,whichwassymbolizedbythefallofthe
BerlinWall.
Thedescribedexpectantapproach,basedontheexcessivehistoricaloptimismandsuperficialhistorical
analogies,raisesanumberofobjections.Firstly,itwillbemorethanadozenyearsbeforethe
reunificationbytheGermanscenariohappens.Andwhenithappens,billionsofdollarswillhavetobe
spentontheprocessofassociation-reintegration(theexampleoftheEastandtheWestGermanyis
suitablehere).Secondly,thereisnoconfrontationbetweenthetwoglobalvalue-systemalternativesonthe
occupiedsouth-easternregionsofDonbasandtheCrimea.Thirdly,somesocioculturaldifferencesof
DonbasandCrimeafromtherestofUkrainearealreadyapparentandwillonlyaggravateduringthe
separateexistencethiswillcertainlycomplicatethefurtherreintegration.Fourthly,thehistoryofthe
previouserahasnotonlypositiveexamplessuchasGermany.Forinstance,nobodyknowswhenthe
unificationofKoreawilltakeplace.Vietnamhasrestoreditsterritorialintegritywiththehelpofmilitary
forcesandtotalitariancommunism,andnotapplyingtheliberal-democraticprinciples(theNorthVietnam
engulfedtheSouth).
Alongwiththat,historicalexperienceshowsthattheartificialstatetransformationsandforced
acquisitionsoftheterritoriesofotherstates,asarule,donottakeroot.Forexample,Lithuania,Latvia
andEstoniaaftertheforcedinclusionintheUSSR
andstayingitspartfor50yearsreturnedtotheirhistoricalpathofEuropeandevelopment,choosing
independenceandfurtherjoiningtheEuropeanUnion.
InthecaseoftheCrimea,thestruggleforthisterritorybetweenUkraineandRussiawilltakeplaceinthe
political,diplomatic,socio-culturaldimensions.However,thefinalchoiceshouldbemadebythepeople
oftheCrimea,andnotunderthemuzzlesofRussianguns,asitwasin2014,butinacivilizeddemocratic
wayandcompliancewiththeinternationallaw.Thereexistasufficientamountofrolemodelsinthisfield.
BeforethenextreferendumintheCrimea,theorganizersshouldcarefullystudytheexperienceofthe
peacefulseparationoftheCzechRepublicandSlovakia,orcarryingoutthereferendumonScottish
independencein2014.Theseprocesseshavenotcausedanydoubtsaboutthelegitimacyofthe
respectiveactionsandtheirlegalconsequences,asopposedtothefarcethattookplaceinCrimeain
2014.
ThearmedconflictinDonbaswilleventuallycometoanend.ItisclearthattheUkrainianpeopleare
interestedinthistohappenasquicklyaspossibleandwiththeleastlosses.Ukrainianscouldnottakefull
advantageofthepeacefulandcalmconditionsofthepreviousphaseofnation-building.Itisobviousthat
thecurrenteraofthestruggleforthestatereestablishmentandthetrueindependencewillbeaperiodof
hardeningandstrengthening,maturingandhealingofthesociety,whichwillfinallyovercomethepolitical
infantilismandall-encompassingcorruption.Negativeexperienceteachesquicklyandconvincingly.
TodaytheUkrainiangovernmentdefendsUkrainianfreedomandindependencewithweaponsinits
hands.Althoughthemilitary-politicalsituationremainsdifficult,Ukrainecontinuestostrengthenits
defensecapabilityandnationalsecurity,carriesoutdifficultandpainfulreforms,andmakesthestate
strongerinthefaceofcurrentandfuturethreats.
Warsusuallyplaytheroleofdividing(threshold)events,separatingthepastfromthefuture,oneerafrom
another.LetushopethatthecurrentRussian-Ukrainianarmedconflictwillfinallyseparatetheformer
post-Sovietcorrupt,cravenanddependentUkrainefromthefutureEuropeanUkraine,thebrave,strong
anddynamicone.
http://en.niss.gov.ua/public/File/englishpublic/Five_scenarios_for_the_Ukrainian-Russian_relations.pdf
Senttime: 07/27/201609:36:43AM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
Subject: ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUIS
INVOLVEDINUSELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds+.[CL/K]Fwd:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?[HU]
TrumpWouldMakeRussiaGreatAgain|NYDailyNews..[ADDFROMWD]AHORBULINCLASSIC:FIVE
SCENARIOSFORRU-UARELATIONS...
From:MiraKyzyk<[email protected]>
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html?
via=mobile&source=twitter
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds/+
To:

RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack
Russiasintelligenceserviceshavealonghistoryofminglingsinisterfictionwithshardsoffactandleakingthrough
thirdpartiestocovertheirtracks.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html
AnneApplebaum
this@FTarticlealsonotesrecentCzech,GermanhackingscandalsmaybelinkedtoRussia
Democratshacked:RussiatrailseesMoscowaccusedofwideraims
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e0b9a84-5278-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60.html#axzz4FSQFQVYI
...
...EversinceRussianhackersattemptedinMay2014tocorrupttheresultsoftheUkrainianpresidentialelection,
therehasbeengrowingconcernamongwesternintelligenceagenciesovertheKremlinsapparentglovesoff
approachwhenitcomestopoliticalsubversion.
ThosefearswerecompoundedjustonemonthlaterinJunethatyear,whentapesofsensitiveandexpletiveladen
conversationsbetweenseniorPolishpoliticianswereleaked,sinkingthehopesofRadoslawSikorski,thehawkish
formerforeignminister,foraseniorEUrole.
InJanuarythisyear,accordingtotheintelligenceofficial,emailshackedfromtheprimeministeroftheCzech
RepublicwerereleasedtopublicembarrassmentinanoperationthathadthefingerprintsofRussianagents.
AndinMay,theheadofGermanysdomesticintelligenceagency,theBfV,saidAPT28wasresponsiblefora
massiveattackontheGermanparliamentaswellasasustainedespionageoperationagainsttheCDUtheruling
partyofAngelaMerkel.
ThereallybigdeparturehereisthatthisisaverydirectinvolvementinUSdomesticpoliticsofakindthateven
undertheKGBwasonlyevercontemplatedonthemargins,saysJonathanEyal,internationaldirectoratthethink-
tankRusi.
Thereisnoway,saysMrEyal,thatsuchoperationswouldnotbeco-ordinatedandassessedwithinRussiafroma
centralauthorityattheveryhighestlevel.
Butwhatthisreallypointsto,MrEyalnotes,isthatthereisafeelinginMoscowthattheyarewinninginthis
confrontationwiththewest.Andtheyseenoreasonwhytheyshouldletup.
Exclusive:SuspectedRussianhackofDNCwidensincludespersonalemailofstaffer
researchingManafort
http://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-hacked-emails-of-dnc-oppo-researcher-point-to-russians-and-wider-penetration-
154121061.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
POLITICO
PriebusonDNCleak:'TheRussiansdidn'twritetheemails'http://politi.co/2akQu6H|
Subject:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<[email protected]>
WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/what-does-putin-have-on-hillary/
AndrewRosenthalofTheNewYorkTimesexaminesthequestionofwhohackedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeand
whetherthetrailleadstoRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.WeknowfromreliablereportingthatRussianhackersarenot
independentactors,andthattheyhavebeenbusy,hewrites.Anditseerie,atbest,thatJulianAssangesWikiLeakschosethis
momenttoreleasethestolenemails(andcompleteastrangetrianglethatrunsfromhimtoPutintoEdwardSnowden).
Forhispart,onhisTwitterpage,Snowdensaid,IfRussiahackedthe#DNC,theyshouldbecondemnedforit.Butduringthe
#Sonyhack,theFBIpresentedevidence.
ThisisfunnyonSnowdenspart.SnowdensitsinRussia,aguestofPutin,andAssangehasactedlikeanagentofRussia.Trevor
LoudonsreportonAssangedocumentshisservicetoMoscowandassociationswithanumberofMarxistorpro-Russiangroups.
Snowdenisprobablypersonallyinvolvedintheleakandcouldeasilygettothebottomofwhyithappened.
ThishastheappearanceofaforeignpowerdirectlyinterferinginanAmericanelection,andthatsnotsomethingtotakelightly,
NoahRothmanwritesinCommentary.Hegoeson,Ratherthanapplaudandleveragethisdevelopment,ashehas,DonaldTrump
wouldbemuchbetterservedbycondemningit.IftheRussiansaresetonunderminingtheDemocraticPartyinthiselection,it
wontbelongbeforethepublicisaskedtoconsiderwhythatmightbe.
Rothmanhasapoint,butthemoreimportantissueiswhytheDNCandthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonusedprivateor
unsecureserversthatwereopentotheseforeignadversaries.OnecanarguethatMrs.Clinton,inparticular,invitedthisforeign
meddlingintheelection.WhoknowswhattheRussiansstillhaveintheirbagoftricks?ThepointisthatMrs.Clintonisasecurity
riskandtheRussiansmaystillhaveemailstouseagainsther.
Pro-PutincommentatorDonHankreportedbackinJune,Iwasinvitedtoparticipateinaconversationamongagroupoffriends
whoarehopingthattheKremlinwillturnovertheircacheofHillaryemailsobtainedviatheRomanianhackerGucciferjustin
timetosmearherpriortotheNovemberelection.
Evenearlier,CatherineHerridgeofFoxNewsreportedbackinMaythattheRomanianhackerknownasGucciferhadclaimed
heeasilyandrepeatedlybreachedformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonspersonalemailserverinearly2013.TheClinton
campaigndeniedthecharge,butHerridgereportedthatGuccifersaidhefirstcompromisedClintonconfidantSidney
Blumenthal'sAOLaccount,inMarch2013,andusedthatasasteppingstonetotheClintonserver.
Gucciferhasbeenindictedbyafederalgrandjuryonchargesofwirefraud,unauthorizedaccesstoaprotectedcomputer,
aggravatedidentitytheft,cyberstalkingandobstructionofjustice.
Mrs.ClintonsemailsmaybeevenmorevaluablethanthedocumentsstolenandreleasedbySnowden.Afterall,Clintonsemails
discussedtheintentionsofU.S.policymakers.
ThisisactuallyanoldstoryinvolvingtheClintons.AsReedIrvineandIreportedbackin1998,theKenStarrreportonPresident
ClintonrevealedthatClintonhadwarnedhissexualplaythingMonicaLewinsky,aWhiteHouseintern,thataforeigngovernment
maybemonitoringtheirtelephoneconversationsandthattheyshouldconcoctacoverstorytoexplainthem.Hereisexactlywhat
theStarrreportsaysaboutthismatter:AccordingtoMs.Lewinsky,sheandthePresidenthadalengthyconversationthatday.He
toldherthathesuspectedthataforeignembassy(hedidnotspecifywhichone)wastappinghistelephones,andheproposed
coverstories.Ifeverquestioned,sheshouldsaythatthetwoofthemwerejustfriends.Ifanyoneeveraskedabouttheirphone
sex,sheshouldsaythattheyknewtheircallswerebeingmonitoredallalong,andthephonesexwasjustaput-on.
Nothinghasreallychanged,exceptthatemailshavenowbeenmonitoredandcompromisedinMrs.Clintonscase.
AswesaidbackinMay,Theevidencedemonstratesthatsheisafull-blownsecurityriskwhoshouldbeindictedforherreckless
criminalconductasSecretaryofState.Hillarymadeherselfintoasecurityrisk.
Nowwearewaitingforthenextshoetodrop.DoesithavesomethingtodowithBillClinton,theClintonFoundation,orHillarys
ownpersonalscandals?
Whateverthescandal,itsnotthefaultofDonaldJ.Trump.Trumpmayhavesomethingtoexplainregardinghisowntiestothe
Kremlin,butsodoesHillary.IfthetruthdoesntcomeoutbeforeElectionDay,itmeansthatMoscowmayhaveblackmailpower
overthepossiblefirstfemalepresidentoftheUnitedStates.
From:hunter@
Subject:TrumpwouldmakeRussiagreatagain--NYDailyNewsEditorial
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/trumprussiagreatarticle1.2725698
MakeRussiagreatagain:WhetherornotRussianshackedtheDNCtoaidDonaldTrump,
theRepublicannomineeisdangerouslyfondofVladimirPutin
EDITORIALS
NEWYORKDAILYNEWS
Tuesday,July26,2016,4:10AM
Deeplydisturbingbutasyetunconfirmed:ThatRussianhackersmayhavebrokenintoDemocraticNational
CommitteecomputersfortheexpresspurposeofboostingthecampaignofDonaldTrump.
Knownbeyondanyreasonabledoubt:Trumpandhisteamhaveaperverseadmirationforandaseriesofstrange
relationshipswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandapro-Russianworld-viewthatrunsagainstthebest
interestsofAmericaintheworld.
TheWikiLeaks-facilitatedbreachoftheDNC,whichproducedmountainsofembarrassingrevelationsforthe
committeeandforcedtheresignationofChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultzloomslargeas
DemocratsgatherinPhiladelphiathisweek.
TheFBIsuspectsRussianintelligenceagencieswerebehindthemischief.Theymighthavebeenfreelancingthey
mighthavebeendoingtheRussianstrongmansbiddingtohelpelectTrump.
RichardA.Clarke:WhyPutinandISISwantTrumptowin
TheprospectofaforeignpowerwithinterestsoftendiametricallyopposedtooursmeddlinginanAmerican
presidentialelectioninthismannershouldmakevotersshudder.
Buthackornohack,TrumpsromanticviewofPutin,amanwhowantsnothingmorethantoexpandhissphereof
influenceandseeU.S.powerwane,iswell-established.Trump,whohasafetishforstrongmenofallstripes,has
repeatedlyheapedpraiseontherepressive,anti-democratic,expansionistPutinafriendtoregimesinIranand
Syriacallinghimamanhighlyrespectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.
WhenchallengedonthefactthatPutinkillsjournalists,politicalopponents,andinvadescountries,Trumpreplied,
Atleasthesaleader.
LastSeptember,whenFoxNewsBillOReillyaskedTrumpaboutPutinsmilitaryadventureinSyria
involvementadvertisedasanti-ISISthatwasinfactintendedtokillrebelschallengingRussianclientBasharAssad
TrumpsaidofPutin,whohadpraisedhim,Intermsofleadership,hesgettinganA.
Debbie,DonnaandtheDNC
Basedonthismutualadmirationsociety,itshouldcomeasnosurprisethatTrumphasexpressedwillingnessto
leaveNATOalliestwistinginthewind.AsNATOisthesinglegreatestcheckonRussianaggression,thatisagift
toPutin.
OrthatTrumpistasnixedaRepublicanplatformamendmentsettoincludestrongsupportforsendingAmerican
weaponstoUkrainetocounterRussianaggression.TopTrumpadviserPaulManafortwhoforthebetterpartof
adecadeworkedasatopaidetoformerUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovych,aPutinstoogesawtoit.
TherearefartoomanydotsconnectingTrumpandRussiatoavoidsteppingbackandseeingthewholescary
picture.
IsitacoincidencethatRussianstate-controlledmediaarecheeringonTrumpateveryturn?
IsitacoincidencethattopTrumpforeignpolicyadviserMichaelFlynn,aformergeneralvettedforaspotonhis
ticket,satnearPutinatacelebrationfortheRussianpropagandaoutletRT?
IsitacoincidencethatTrumpsbusinesshasincreasinglyreliedonloansfromRussiansources,and,in2008,
DonaldTrumpJr.toldarealestateconferencethatRussiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecrosssectionofa
lotofourassets?
PutinslonggameistoweakenEuropeanddominatetheregion.Thatswhyhehassupportedandloaned
moneytoright-wingpopulistsaroundEurope:MarineLePeninFrance,SilvioBerlusconiinItaly,andanti-EU
partiesinGreece,HungaryandBulgaria.RussianpropagandaorganscelebratedBritainsexitfromtheEU.
TrumpalsopraisedBrexitandthisweekendignorantlyinsultedtheEuropeanUnion,whoseprecursorwasborn
in1952toensureawar-torncontinentcouldliveinpeace,bysayingitwasfoundedtobeattheU.S.atmaking
money.
Inshort:VladimirPutinsinterestsjusthappentobeDonaldTrumps.Stopandletthatsinkin.
Subject:AnotherHorbulinclassicworthasecondlook/read>VolodymyrHorbulin........FivescenariosforUkraine-
Russiarelations
VolodymyrHorbulinFivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
VolodymyrHorbulin
FivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
IthasbeenmorethanayearaftertheRussianannexationoftheCrimeaandthebeginningofthearmed
aggressioninthesouth-easternregionsofDonbas.
DespitetheattemptsofsomepoliticianstopresenttheeventsinUkraineasanexclusivelyinternalconflict
orcivilwar,itbecomesmoreandmoredifficulttowithholdorrefusetorecognizetheobviousfactof
participationinthisconflictofregularunitsoftheArmedForcesofRussiaorsupportofterroristic
organizationsoperatinginDonbasbyRussia.
Infact,forallthistimepeopleofUkrainehavebeenresistingtheaggressionofoneofthelargest
countriesintheworld,defendingtheirterritory,freedomandindependence.Kremlinsblitzkriegfailed.
TheideathatthewholeUkrainefromtheeastoftheDniprodreamsofrevivingthealliancewiththe
formermetropolis,thatUkrainianindependenceisanartificialphenomenon,thatUkrainianshaveno
patriotismturnedouttobeamyth.InsteadofthevictoriousunificationoftheRussianland,the
Kremlinreceivedhugeeconomiclosses,distrustofthecivilizedworld,acatastrophiclossofthe
internationalprestigeandthegrowthofanti-Russiansentimentsintheworld.
Thecurrentsituationisastalematethereisneitherpeacenorwar.Allpartiessuffersignificantlosses.
Ukraineisplaguedbytheongoingconflictonitsterritory.Russiaisburdenedwiththeparticipationinthe
conflict,themaintenanceofunprofitableannexedCrimea,aswellaswithinternationalsanctions.Finally,
WesterncountriessuffersignificantlyfromtheseveranceofeconomictieswithRussia.
Whatcanbethefurtherdevelopmentoftheevents?Letustrytooutlinepossiblescenarios.Inourview,
therearefivebasicscenarios,threeofthemareradical,andtwoareintermediatecompromise.
Thefirstradicalscenario(scenarioof"totalwar").ItispossibleincaseifRussiangovernmentwillmake
adecisiontolaunchopenmilitaryaggressiontoobtainalandcorridortotheCrimeaandtoreceive
unhinderedaccesstoitsmilitarycontingentinTransnistria.Inthiscase,Ukrainewillbedeprivedofthe
choiceofapossiblesettlementinDonbas,andwillbeforcedtodefenditsindependence,usingall
availableresources.DevelopmentsinsuchascenariowouldmeanfullmilitarizationofUkrainiansociety
economic,political,culturalandideologicalpropagandaandmobilizationimpositionofmartiallaw
maximumself-reliance,
duetotheinevitableinternationalisolation,atleastintheearlystagesofanall-outwaranda
correspondingreductionofflowsofexternalresourcesuncompromisingfocusonthedestructionofthe
enemyattacksagainstcriticalinfrastructureoftheenemyactiveguerrillaandsabotageactivitiesdenial
orminimizationofdiplomaticandforeigneconomiccooperationwiththeenemygovernmentandits
satellitesacompletesubordinationofthearmedforcestodiplomacyandmilitarypropaganda.
Ukrainehasachancetowinthetotalwar,asitisopposedtothecountrywithlimitedtechnologicaland
financialresourceslow"marginofsafety"ofthepoliticalsystempopulationcharacterizedbyinherent
negativedemographicdynamicsandtheinabilitytoresisttheaggressivenationalminoritiesobsolete
army.TheresistanceoftheUkrainianpeopletotheRussianaggression,eventuallywillreturndisposition
oftheworldleadingpowers,aswellasdeepentheinternationalisolationofRussia.Moreover,inthe
conditionsoftotalwarmilitaryactionsoftheRussiasterritorywilldemoralizeanddemotivatethenation.
InthecaseofRussia'sdefeatinthiswar,theissueofDonbasandtheCrimeaownershipwillbewillbe
finallyresolved.Ukrainewillgetridofthe"fifthcolumn"ofopensupportersofthe"Russianworld".It
willgetitsown"heroicepos"asabasisforthepatrioticeducationoffuturegenerations.Mostofthe
issuesintheUkrainian-Russianrelationswillbefinallysettled,andthehistoricalpathsofthetwonations
willpartforever,andthelevelofantagonismwillreachitspeak.
EveninthecaseofseizureoftheUkrainianterritorybytheRussianarmy,thewarwillnotbeoverthe
guerrillamovementandsubversiveactivitiesagainsttheoccupierswillcontinue.Accordingtothis
scenario,therewillcometheinevitableinterventionoftheWestintheconflictinanyform,the
introductionofnewseveresanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation,thetotalpoliticalisolationofthe
Russianleadership,andperhaps,theexclusionoftheRussianFederationfromtheUNSecurityCouncil
andotherinternationalorganizations.Ontheotherhand,thepriceofvictorywillbedestroyed
infrastructureandeconomicpotentialofUkraine,numerousvictimsamongthecivilianandmilitaries.
ItshouldbenotedthatUkraine'stotalwarispurelydefensive.Itdoesnotnecessarilyleadtomass
casualtiesonthecontrary,thereadinessforsuchwarwilldetertheaggressorwithfearofsignificant
lossesandthethreatoftransferofhostilitiestoitsterritory.Themottoofthedefensivewarisunderstood
as"totalmobilizationintosurvive",anditspurposeis"todropthesuperiorforcesoftheaggressorback
onitsownterritorybyinflictinghimmaximumdemotivatinglosses".
Thisscenarioisthemostheroicandsacrificialbutatthesametimetheleastlikelyone.NeitherUkrainian
norRussianpeoplewanttofight.Nobodywantstolosethebenefitsofmodern,peacefullifeforthesake
ofwhimsofahandfulofpoliticaladventurers.
Ingeneral,thescenariooftotalwarisaimedatUkrainesvictoryandpreservationofitsterritorial
integrity.Historyknowsmanyexamplesofsuccessfulviscidsemi-guerrillawarsofsmallandmedium-
sizedstatesagainstlargerandmuchmorepowerfulones.However,thisscenariocanbringnotonly
victorybutalsosignificantlossestothecountry.
Inanycase,suchascenarioisnotthegoalforUkraine.Thegovernmentwillbeforcedtofollowitonly
whenRussiastartsafull-scaleopenattack.
Thesecondradicalscenario("cut-off"or"thewall"scenario)suggestsUkrainesultimateabandonment
oftheoccupiedterritoriesandacompletebreakupwiththem.Thefurtherhistoricalfateofthese
territorieswillbesignificantforUkraineonlyintermsofensuringitsownsecurity,namely,thepowerof
defensivestructuresandasufficientlevelofisolationoftheselands.Foracertainperiod,Ukrainian
statehoodwillneedreformattingandabilitytoadapttothecurrentsituation.However,thisperiodwillbe
relativelypainlessforUkrainebecauseoftheabsenceofregionsdominatedbyrenegadeandconsumer
sentiments,higherdensityandloyaltyoftheUkrainiansociety,favorableconditionsforthecountry's
reformandinternationalassistance.GeorgiaandMoldovastillexistevenafterhavingsufferedsevere
territoriallossesSerbiacontinuesitshistoricpathevenbeingdeprivedofitshistoricalland.
TheimplementationofthisscenariowouldinevitablycausedamagetoUkrainesprestigeinthe
internationalarena.Thisscenarioisalsobeneficialfortherepresentativesofthelocalsemi-criminal
oligarchy,which,inparticular,feedsoncross-bordercrimeandcorruption,aswellasforthepost-Soviet
underclasswhoearntheirlivingbylow-skilledlaborabroad(includingthecountry-aggressor).The
currentscenarioimpliestheuncompromising"amputation"ofanyrelationsandtheerectionofa
"protectivewall"aroundthenew"areasofsocialandpoliticalexclusion."RelationswithRussia,intheir
turn,shouldbereducedtoaminimum,whichsuggestsapossibleextensionofthe"securitywall"across
theRussian-Ukrainianborder.
Thecompliancewiththetotalisolationoftheoccupiedterritorieswillbeextremelydifficulttoensure.In
suchconditions,terroristswillfeelfreefromtheobligationsundertheMinskAgreementandwillcontinue
toattackUkrainian
territories,preventingtheinfrastructureofthenewborderfrombeingarranged.Inaddition,theexistence
of"holes"intheborderwillbeofgreatinterestforvariouscriminalelementswhogainprofitsfrom
smuggling,drugtrafficking,humantrafficking,illegalmigration,etc.
Thepossibilitytoimplementthisscenarioisbasedonthesignificantmentalgapbetweencertain
inhabitantsofthetemporarilyoccupiedDonbasandthemajorityoftheUkrainiansociety.Thelong-
lastinginfluenceofRussianpropagandaonthemindsofthosepeopleformedthemistakenideaofthe
possiblerestorationoftheSovietUnionwithRussia'shelpthosepeoplewereaccustomedtohatred
towardseverythingUkrainianandbroughtuptheyoungergenerationinthesamespirit.Disregardforthis
problemcontributedtothetragicconsequencesoftheannexationoftheCrimeaandtheoccupationofa
partoftheDonbas.NowadaystheUkrainiansocietyfrequentlywonderswhetheritisworthtocontinue
thestrugglefortheterritorydestroyedduringthearmedconflictandtheatrocitiesofRussianinvaders,
takingintoaccountthattheremainingpopulationofthoseterritoriesexpressesnodesiretoreturnunder
Ukrainianjurisdiction.Thisquestionbecomesespeciallyurgentduetothederivedbarriersonthewayto
Europeanintegrationanddelaysinthefurtherdemocraticreforms.Thescenarioofthecomplete
abandonmentoftheseparatistregionsisassociatedwiththelossofapartofthestateterritoryand
prestige.Moreover,itimpliesalongadaptationperiod.
Thethirdradicalscenario("satellite"scenario)suggeststhatUkrainewillsearchforthewaystoconclude
aseparatepeacewithRussiaonfavorableterms,willneglectinterestsofWesternpartners,recognizethe
Donbasautonomy,andrefusetoturnbacktheCrimea.SuchreconciliationwilldepriveUkrainesforeign
policyofindependenceandwilltieitshistoricalfatewiththeRussianFederation.Thepossiblecommon
futureoftwostatesisunlikelytodifferfromwhathadhappenedbeforeinthehistoryofbothnations,but
thewaythelosses,war,andrepressionhappenagain.TheUkrainianstatehasmanyproblemsofitsown
tocomplementtheproblemsoftheRussianstate.Inparticular,theaggravationofdomesticsocial
conflicts,thegrowthofreligiousfundamentalismandregionalseparatism,theeconomiccollapseofthe
resource-rich,buttechnologicallybackwardcountrywillhaveaninevitabledevastatingimpacton
Ukraine.
AsignificantthreattotheUkrainiansocietyisthepossibilityofitsinvolvementinanotherRussian
imperialadventure(fortheprevioustwotheRomanovempireandtheSovietUnionUkrainianshad
alreadypaidmillionsofvictims).Thisadventureinvolvesahopelessandlosingconfrontationwiththe
worldleading
nations(primarilytheUnitedStatesandtheEuro-Atlanticcommunity),andtherefore,newlosses,new
conflicts,andnewhistoricalturningpoints.
ItisclearthatsuchascenariomeetsneitherthenationalinterestsofUkrainenortheaspirationsofthe
Ukrainianpeople,whoclearlystatedtheirEuropeanchoiceattheendof2013,payingahighpriceofthe
lostlivesontheMaidan.
Thisscenarioishistoricallysuicidalandpoliticallymeaningless.RussianEmpirewillneverbeformed
completelyitwillalwaysbe"gettingonitsfeet,"or"gettingupfromitsknees".Theseeffortswillbe
followedbymillionsofvictimsandlossesofhistoricallyunprecedentedamountsofresourcesinwars,
famine,andrepressions.Anattempttoresolvetheconflictinsuchascenariowillcausemassprotestsin
Ukraine,whichwillspilloverintoanewMaidandemandingtheresignationoftheUkrainianleadership.
Thecountrywilleventuallybecomecompletelydestabilized.Thissituationwillcreateidealconditionsfor
Moscow'sinterventionintheinternalaffairsofUkraineandthecontinuationofRussianaggression.
Thefourthscenario("freezing"scenario)liesinthe"freezing"oftheconflictasitwasinTransnistria,
Abkhazia,orSouthOssetia.ThisdecisionisofsignificantinterestforRussia(however,thetotal
surrenderprovidedbythethirdscenariowillsuitittoagreaterextent),aswellasforsomecountriesof
theEUandthemostconformistandpro-RussianlayersoftheEuropeansociety.
Theessenceofthisscenarioliesinthattheconflict-affectedterritoriesofso-calledDNRandLNRwill
remainthepartsofUkraine,perhaps,onconditionofgivingthemspecialpowers.Economictiesbetween
theseterritoriesandtherestofUkraineshouldberestored,whichmeansthatUkrainewillhavetoassume
theeconomicburdenofreconstructionofdestroyedareasofDonbas.Atthesametime,thepuppet
regimecontrolledbyRussiawilldefactooperateinDonbaspursuingtheinterestsofanotherstate.
Russia,thus,willtrytoinfluencetheUkrainianforeignanddomesticpolicy.
ItisobviousthatthisscenariosuggeststhatUkrainewillsignificantlyslowdownonitswaytoEurope,
and"affected"dependentregionswillbecomeanewsourceofpoliticalinstabilityandeconomicburden
forUkraine.Atthesametime,oneshouldnotexpectaquietlife,becausetheconflictwillfurthersmolder
destabilizingthesituationbythethreattoreturntotheactivephase.
Atthesametime,thecessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbasand"reconciliation"impliedbythis
scenariowillgiveEuropeancountriesanexcuseforliftingthesanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation
anditspoliticalleaders,whichwillleadto
therestorationofeconomictiesandboosteconomicgrowthinRussia.However,theEuropeanleaders
willbeabletoturntheirattentiontothesolutionofproblemswithintheEUthatwillcontributetothe
growthoftheirpoliticalratings,asopposedtostrengtheningthe"fatigue"fromthecontinuationofthe
Russian-Ukrainianconflict.
DespitethefactthatthisscenariosuggestsaratherrapidcessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbas,Ukraine
willremainanunattractivestateofpermanentcrisiswithasignificantnumberofrepresentativesofvarious
internationalorganizations,humanitarianaidtrafficking,theenormousturnoverofsmugglingofillegal
weapons,drugsandthousandsof"bluehelmets"placedatthedemarcationline.Theperiodofthe
"frozen"formoftheconflictisunknown,aswellasitsresults.Historicalexperienceshowsthatwecan
talkaboutdecades,andasaresult,Ukrainewillreturntowhereitbegan,startinganewroundof
antagonism.
Ingeneral,theimplementationofthisscenariowillsatisfytheinterestsofbothRussiaandtheEU,butnot
ofUkraine,especiallyinthelongtermperspective.
Thefifthscenario("neitherwarnorpeace"or"limitedwarandpermanentnegotiation"scenario)provides
alimiteddeterrentwarintheEastagainstRussiaandthecollaboratorswiththeaimtoinflictthem
maximumdemotivatinglossespermanentnegotiatingprocess,butwithoutthefinalresultsreflectedina
varietyofarrangementsandformatsbuild-upofthemilitarypotentialofUkraine(primarilyofthe
military-technological)andthegradualtransitionfromblockingoftheopponenttohisdisplace,the
transitionfrompassivetoactivedefensetheincreaseoftheinternationalsanctionsanddiplomatic
isolationofRussiaconsistentandradicalreformationoftheUkrainiansocietyrapprochementwith
NATOandtheEuropeanUnionandtheformationofanumberofdefenseallianceswiththepost-Soviet
andCentralEuropeancountries.
Therealizationofthisscenariowillrequirepoliticalskillsandmentalendurance,aswellasthepresenceof
therapidreactionforcesandspecialoperationsforces,flexibleandcreativediplomacy,delicateand
"acrimonious"propaganda.
Despiterequiringmuchtime,skillsandpatienceforitsimplementation,thisscenariomakesitpossibleto
achievemaximumresultswithminimumlossesoflife.
Asitcanbeseen,noneofthescenariosshouldbeexcluded.Theyallcontaingreaterorlesserriskstothe
UkrainianpeopleandtheUkrainianstate.Thereareneitheridealoptionsnorsimplesolutions.An
importanttaskistofindtheoptimalbalanceofinterestsofallthepartiestotheconflict.
Althoughthescenariooftheconflicts"freezing"isundesirableandhistoricallyunpromisingforUkraine,
itispossiblethatundertheinfluenceofinternalandexternalcircumstancesUkrainewillhavetoagreeto
thisscenario.Inthiscase,thebalanceofinterestsshouldlieinthefactthatUkraineagreestotakecertain
risksonlyprovidedthatanumberofrequirementsaretakenintoaccountasriskabsorbers.
Firstly,theterritoriescapturedbypro-RussiancollaboratorsandRussianinvadersaretemporarily
withdrawnfromtheUkrainianjurisdictionandareputundertheinternationaljurisdiction.Ukrainestopsto
fulfillanyobligationstothosewhodecidedtostayonitsterritories,andthegeneraladministrationof
theseterritoriesisexercisedbythebodycomposedofrepresentativesofinternationalorganizationsand
thestatesconcerned.Anyeconomiccontactswiththeoccupiedterritoriesareceased,includingthe
supplyoffood,energyandetc.HumanitarianaidisprovidedonlyundertheauspicesoftheUNandthe
RedCross.
Secondly,Ukrainereservestheexclusiverighttodecideontherestorationofitsterritorialintegrityandto
carryoutthisrestorationinthemostappropriatetimeandthemostappropriateway.
Thirdly,thestatusoftheterritoriesoccupiedbyRussiaandcapturedbyterroristscanonlybetemporary
andshouldnotbereflectedintheConstitution.TheissueofconflictresolutioninDonbashasnothingto
dowiththequestionofthestatesystemofUkraineatleastbecausethefirstiscausedbytheexternal
aggression,andthesecondisapurelydomesticmatter.
Fourthly,ifthelocalDonbascollaborators,membersofbanditgroupsandotherpartnersoftheRussian
aggressionwerenotinvolvedinviolentcrimes(primarilyagainsthumanity),theyshouldbesubjectsto
amnesty.Amnestiedpersonsaredeprivedoftherighttoholdadministrativepositionsatalllevelsinthe
temporarilyoccupiedterritoriesofDonbasandthewholeUkraine.
Fifthly,thedemarcationlineisestablishedonaproportionalbasis,andeachofthewarringpartiesretains
controloverthemainpopulationcentersintheneutralline.DonetskandLuganskaredeclaredopenand
demilitarizedcitiesundertheinternationalcontrol.Themajorbordercrossingpointsonthepartofthe
Ukrainian-Russianborder,whicharetemporarilycontrolledbytheRussiaanditscollaborators,should
receivethesamestatus.
Sixthly,themilitarycontingent,whichwilldividethewarringparties,mustbecomposedprimarilyofthe
representativesofthearmedforcesofthosecountrieswhoseleaderswilldecidetocreateanew
TransnistriaandbuypeaceinEuropeat
thecostofUkrainianterritory.Moreover,Ukrainemustdemandthecreationofatleastthree,andnotone
(liketoday),militaryteamstogetherwiththecountriesofNATOthoseteamsshouldbelocatedaround
theareaofthefrozenconflictinthecitiesofKharkov,Dnipropetrovsk,Zaporizhzhia,Odessa,and
Mykolaiv.
Ukrainianterritoryshouldbecometheplaceofpermanentandcontinuousjointmilitarytraining,especially
withthoseNATOmember-countries,whichcanteachtheofficersandsoldiersofourarmy.
Seventhly,theUkrainiansidecontinuestodevelopandmodernizeitsarmedforcesandreservestheright
tousethemtosaveandrestoreitssovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Ukrainewillframeitsmilitary
doctrineandmilitarypolicyinaccordancewiththenationalinterestsandprotectitscitizensonthewhole
territory,includingthetemporarilyoccupiedone.
Eighthly,Ukrainereceiveseconomiccompensationforitswillingnesstopreventalargemainland,and
perhapsevenaworldwaratthecostoftemporarylossofthepartofitsownterritory.Wearetalking
abouttheexpandedlendingtothenationaleconomy,promotionofinvestmentintheUkrainianagro-
industrialandmilitary-industrialcomplexes,inclusioninthepan-Europeanprogramofscientific,
technologicalandregionaldevelopment,providingadditionaltradingopportunitiesandassistanceintheir
implementation,assistanceinthefieldofenergysecurity.
Ninthly,theUkrainianstatereceivespoliticalcompensation,whichwillensurethestateindependenceand
definetheprospectsofUkrainesmembershipinNATOandtheEuropeanUnion.
ThoserequirementsoftheUkrainiansidemaybecomethebasisforfurtherlengthynegotiations,whichin
practicewouldmeannowar,nopeacestatewheretofightiswhichthefightisimpracticalandtoput
upisinappropriate.
Whilesolvingtheproblemsofthesouth-easternpartsofUkrainianDonbasandtheCrimea,oneshould
takeintoaccounttheinternationalcontextasmuchaspossible.Bothissuesareunlikelytobefinally
resolvedwithoutthecomprehensivetransformationofthepost-Sovietspaceandtheresolutionofthe
territorialconflictinKarabakh,Transnistria,Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia.Thereturnofthoseregionsto
thenationalstatesmaybeprecededbytheirtemporarytransferunderinternationaladministration.Butfor
thetimebeingUkraineshouldstarttopromotebydiplomaticandpropagandameanstheideaof
holdinganinternationalconferenceonpeaceandarrangingofthepost-Sovietspace.Itisrelevantinthis
contexttobringtogethertheeffortsofUkraine,Georgia,Moldova
andAzerbaijanwithinGUAMasarenewedregionalorganizationwithasignificantpotential.
TheissueoftheCrimeaoritsreturntoUkrainewillremainopenforalongtime.Itisclearthatthe
annexationofthepeninsulawillnotberecognizedbytheworldcommunity,anditwillcontinueits
isolatedexistenceasthepartoftheRussianFederation,whichhasnochancetolegitimizethisnew
territorialacquisitionattheinternationallevel.Ithastopaythepeopleforloyalty,tosuppressandatthe
sametimetrytobribeCrimeanTatars,toinvestininfrastructureprojectsand,moreimportantly,tospend
hugeamountsofmoneyonthemaintenanceoftheenormousmilitarybaseandthesignificantcontingent
oftroopswhichshouldprotectthisperipheralbranchofthelandintheclosedseaofallegedabuseof
NATOandUkrainesrightlyaspirations.
Ukrainewillnotreturnthislostregioninthenearestfuture.Itmaybepossibleonlyincasesome
unexpectedwonderoccurs,likeaninstantcollapseoftheRussianFederationortheUkrainianeconomic
miracle.ItisclearthatthedifficultpathofthereturnoftheCrimeaisahead,andnotallUkrainiansare
readytoovercomeitbecausemanyofthemfeelamoralaversiontothemajorityofthepopulationofthe
peninsulaanddonotconsiderthepeninsulaalandworthspillingbloodandenduringhardships.Thatis
whyiswillbenecessarytoconvincenotonlytheCrimeanpeoplebutalsoUkrainians.Thereturnofthe
Crimearemainsratherastatethannationalmatter.InUkraine,fewpeoplebelievethatitisnecessaryto
implementeconomicreformssolelyinordertobecomerich,topleasetheinhabitantsofthelost
peninsulaandtopersuadethemtoreturn.Ukrainiansfeelmoralobligationsandresponsibilitymainlyin
relationtotheCrimeanTatars,whosufferedthemost.Theyremaintheonlyindigenousnationofthe
Crimea,whichhadtherighttoself-determinationinaccordancewiththeinternationallaw,butwasnot
goingtouseit,beingapartofUkraine.NowtheindigenouspeopleoftheCrimeafacethethreatofanew
deportationcomingfromthecurrentillegalgovernmentoftheCrimea.
TheissueoftheCrimeahasthreeimportantvalueandnormativeaspects.Firstly,theannexationofthe
peninsulacauseddamagenotonlytotheresourcebaseandpower-forcepotentialofUkrainebutalsoto
itspublicprestigeandthemoralconditionofcitizens.Secondly,theannexationsignificantlyundermined
theworldorderduetotherejectionoftheprincipleofthebordersinviolability(theonethatprevailedin
internationalrelationsaftertheSecondWorldWar)aswellasduetobrazenimpudentviolationofthe
sovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofamemberoftheworldcommunity.Therefore,theproblemofthe
Crimearegardtothelatter,
evenmorethantoUkraineitself.Thirdly,theannexationhasshownasurprisingunityoftheRussian
society,bymakingthissocietycollectivelyresponsibleforthecrime.Evenasignificantpartoftheso-
calledoppositionwelcomedtheseizure,mitigatingitsimmoralandillegalpositionbytherequirementof
anotherreferendumonjoiningtheCrimeatoRussia.
DifficultiesofthereturnofthelostterritoriesshouldnotdemoralizetheUkrainianstateandpeople,
generatedespairanddistractfromtheconstantandlaboriouswork(diplomatic,military,and
propagandistic)forthereturn.Eventoday,itisclearthatthisprocesswilllastforlong.However,itis
immoralandshort-sightedtofreezetherestorationoftheterritorialintegrityandtoputthis
responsibilityontheshouldersoffuturegenerations.Inparticular,theattemptstounderstandtheproblem
intermsofbipolarityconsideringtheUkraine'sseparationlinefromthelostterritories,somethinglikea
newBerlinWall,causecertainobjections.Todaywecanhearthecallstowaitforthetimewhenthe
changeintheglobalandregionaldistributionofforcesoccurs,andwhenUkrainereachesamuchhigher
levelofdevelopment.Thus,thereoccursatransfertoaratherpeculiarsituationoftheUkrainianscenario
ofthereunificationofGermanyaftertheendofColdWar,whichwassymbolizedbythefallofthe
BerlinWall.
Thedescribedexpectantapproach,basedontheexcessivehistoricaloptimismandsuperficialhistorical
analogies,raisesanumberofobjections.Firstly,itwillbemorethanadozenyearsbeforethe
reunificationbytheGermanscenariohappens.Andwhenithappens,billionsofdollarswillhavetobe
spentontheprocessofassociation-reintegration(theexampleoftheEastandtheWestGermanyis
suitablehere).Secondly,thereisnoconfrontationbetweenthetwoglobalvalue-systemalternativesonthe
occupiedsouth-easternregionsofDonbasandtheCrimea.Thirdly,somesocioculturaldifferencesof
DonbasandCrimeafromtherestofUkrainearealreadyapparentandwillonlyaggravateduringthe
separateexistencethiswillcertainlycomplicatethefurtherreintegration.Fourthly,thehistoryofthe
previouserahasnotonlypositiveexamplessuchasGermany.Forinstance,nobodyknowswhenthe
unificationofKoreawilltakeplace.Vietnamhasrestoreditsterritorialintegritywiththehelpofmilitary
forcesandtotalitariancommunism,andnotapplyingtheliberal-democraticprinciples(theNorthVietnam
engulfedtheSouth).
Alongwiththat,historicalexperienceshowsthattheartificialstatetransformationsandforced
acquisitionsoftheterritoriesofotherstates,asarule,donottakeroot.Forexample,Lithuania,Latvia
andEstoniaaftertheforcedinclusionintheUSSR
andstayingitspartfor50yearsreturnedtotheirhistoricalpathofEuropeandevelopment,choosing
independenceandfurtherjoiningtheEuropeanUnion.
InthecaseoftheCrimea,thestruggleforthisterritorybetweenUkraineandRussiawilltakeplaceinthe
political,diplomatic,socio-culturaldimensions.However,thefinalchoiceshouldbemadebythepeople
oftheCrimea,andnotunderthemuzzlesofRussianguns,asitwasin2014,butinacivilizeddemocratic
wayandcompliancewiththeinternationallaw.Thereexistasufficientamountofrolemodelsinthisfield.
BeforethenextreferendumintheCrimea,theorganizersshouldcarefullystudytheexperienceofthe
peacefulseparationoftheCzechRepublicandSlovakia,orcarryingoutthereferendumonScottish
independencein2014.Theseprocesseshavenotcausedanydoubtsaboutthelegitimacyofthe
respectiveactionsandtheirlegalconsequences,asopposedtothefarcethattookplaceinCrimeain
2014.
ThearmedconflictinDonbaswilleventuallycometoanend.ItisclearthattheUkrainianpeopleare
interestedinthistohappenasquicklyaspossibleandwiththeleastlosses.Ukrainianscouldnottakefull
advantageofthepeacefulandcalmconditionsofthepreviousphaseofnation-building.Itisobviousthat
thecurrenteraofthestruggleforthestatereestablishmentandthetrueindependencewillbeaperiodof
hardeningandstrengthening,maturingandhealingofthesociety,whichwillfinallyovercomethepolitical
infantilismandall-encompassingcorruption.Negativeexperienceteachesquicklyandconvincingly.
TodaytheUkrainiangovernmentdefendsUkrainianfreedomandindependencewithweaponsinits
hands.Althoughthemilitary-politicalsituationremainsdifficult,Ukrainecontinuestostrengthenits
defensecapabilityandnationalsecurity,carriesoutdifficultandpainfulreforms,andmakesthestate
strongerinthefaceofcurrentandfuturethreats.
Warsusuallyplaytheroleofdividing(threshold)events,separatingthepastfromthefuture,oneerafrom
another.LetushopethatthecurrentRussian-Ukrainianarmedconflictwillfinallyseparatetheformer
post-Sovietcorrupt,cravenanddependentUkrainefromthefutureEuropeanUkraine,thebrave,strong
anddynamicone.
http://en.niss.gov.ua/public/File/englishpublic/Five_scenarios_for_the_Ukrainian-Russian_relations.pdf
Senttime: 07/27/201609:01:43AM
Subject: FW:"AfterDNCleaks,OBAMAhintsatpossibleMOTIVEforRussiatohelpTrump,"washingtonpost.com,7/27
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"AfterDNCleaks,OBAMAhintsatpossibleMOTIVEforRussiatohelpTrump,"washingtonpost.com,7/27
PresidentObamaonTuesdaywadedintothecontroversyovertheleakofDNCemails,sayingthe
hackofpartyrecordswascharacteristicofRussiangovernmentbehaviorWhatwedoknowisthat
theRussianshackoursystems,notjustgovernmentsystemsbutprivatesystems.Whatthemotives
wereintermsoftheleaks,allthatIcantsaydirectly.WhatIdoknowisthatDonaldTRUMPhas
repeatedlyexpressedadmirationforPutin.
And:OfficialeditorialoftheNewYorkTimes:ThePUTINTRUMPadmirationsociety,nytimes.com,
7/27
WouldMr.PutinreallyinterfereintheAmericanpresidentialracetohelpMr.Trump,theRepublican
Partynominee,getelectedovertheDemocraticnominee,HillaryClinton?...itisbeingconsidereda
seriouspossibilityaftertheirreleaseonFridayofnearly20,000emailsstolenfromtheDNCcomputer
servers,manyofthemembarrassingtoDemocraticleadersTheDemocratsexpectmoreleaks.Itmay
taketimetoprovewhowasbehindthecyberattacks,butAmericanintelligenceagencieshave
reportedlytoldtheWhiteHousethattheyhavehighconfidenceitwasRussia.Severalcybersecurity
firmsthatexaminedthemetadatasaiditlookedliketheworkoftwoRussianintelligenceagencies
TheFBIisinvestigating.Mr.TrumphasdismissedtheideaofaRussianinterventiononhisbehalfasa
joke.ButhispastwordsaboutMr.PutinhavecausedsometosuspectthatMoscowwouldseekto
giveMr.trumpanedgeintheelection.
And:RussianSTATESPONSOREDACTORSwentafteraDNCstafferinvestigatingPaulMANAFORTs
[Trumpscampaignmanager]activitiesinUkraine:SeeMichaelISIKOFF,Exclusive:SuspectedRussian
hackofDNCWIDENSincludespersonalemailofstafferresearchingManafort,yahoo.com/news,
7/25
JustweeksaftershestartedpreparingoppositionresearchfilesonDonaldTrumpscampaign
chairmanpaulManafortlastspring,DNCconsultantAlexandraChalupagotanalarmingmessage
whensheloggedontoherpersonalYahooaccount.Importantactionrequired,apopupfroma
YahoosecurityteamthatisinformallyknownastheParanoids.Westronglysuspectthatyour
accounthasbeenthetargetofstatesponsoredactors.Chalupawhohadbeendraftingmemosand
writingmemosaboutManafortsconnectionstoPRORUSSIANLEADERSinUkrainequicklyalerted
topDNCofficials.Chalupasmessagestandsout:itisthefirstindicationthatthereachofthe
hackerswhopenetratedtheDNChasextendedBEYONDtheofficialemailaccountsofcommittee
officialsAfterChalupasenttheemailto[hersupervisor]ittriggeredhighlevelconcernswithinthe
DNC,giventhesensitivenatureofherwork.ThatswhenweknewitwastheRUSSIANS,saida
DemocraticPartysourceWetoldhertostopherresearch.Thelasttimesomebodybrokeintothe
DNC[Watergate],itledtotheresignationofapresident,saidtheDemocraticPartysecuritysource.
And:DanaMILBANK,ATrumpstylespeculationontheGOPandPUTIN,washingtonpost.com,7/27
oped
And:LililiaSHEVTSOVAdiscussestheRussiantraceintheDNCscandal:
http://blog.newsru.com/article/27july2016/sled
And:SodoesnotedcolumnistVitaliiPORTNIKOV,Manafort,YanukovychandTrump:
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/2789944.html
And:AndreiPIONTKOVSIIonthestruggleforpoweratthetopinRussia:Evangelieotpalachei,
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27875205.html
And:TheeditorialboardofSlon.rudescribestheassaultoftheFSBonnumerousRussianstate
entitiesandtheirleaders:http://slong.ru/posts/71363
And:RussiansprotestREPRESSIVEnewantiterrorlaws,themoscowtimes.com,7/27
ProtestsagainstrepressivenewantiterrorlegislationhavetakenplaceinmajorcitiesacrossRussia.
Senttime: 07/29/201605:55:39AM
Dearfriends,
Formypart,IarrivedinMoscowasFirstSecretaryintheAustralianEmbassyafewdaysbeforetheDecember1995
Dumaelections,andlivedthroughthesix-monthpresidentialelectioncampaign.
1.Yeltsin'spopularityratingincreasedfrom2-3percentinJanuary1996to,ifmemoryserves,53percentinthesecond
roundofthepresidentials(versusZyuganov's38percent).Aremarkablechangeinfortunes,tosaytheleast!
2.So,howdidhedidhedoit?Well,alltheoligarchsgotbehindhimsothattherewasamassivediscrepancyinfinancial
outreach.Then,theelectronicmedia(controlledbyseveraloftheoligarchs)gaveblanketpositivecoveragetoYeltsin,and
correspondinglynegativecoveragetoZyuganov.Oneparticularexamplecomestomind-thetwocandidates'respective
dancingperformances.YeltsinwasshownrockingandrollingonafinedayinRedSquareinfrontofayoung,
enthusiasticaudiencehavingagreattime.Zyuganovwasshownmakingadog'sdinnerofaRussianfolkdance.Hewas
filmedfromabove,sothateveryonecouldseehisbaldingpate(comparedtoY'sfineheadofhair),andsweatingprofusely
fromhisarmpitsandotherorifices.Hisaudiencewasalsohiscore,clapped-outandgrumpyCommunistParty
constituency.Thesymbolismcouldnothavebeenmorestark,andboydidtheelectronicmedialaborthepoint!
3.AfriendofminewasplayingtenniswithGusinskyaboutamonthbeforethefirstround.Gusinskysaidtherewasa
splitintheYeltsincampaboutwhattodowiththepresidentialelections-whethertogoaheadwiththem,orto
cancel/postponethem.The'siloviki'(Iknow,notatermthatcameintofashionuntillater!)closetoYeltsin,namely,
KorzhakovandSoskovets,wereallforcanningtheelectionsonthebasisthattheycouldn'triskZ.comingtopower.
Chubais,however,wasstronglyoftheviewthathecoulddeliverapositiveresult,andthattosuspendtheelectoral
processwouldbebothhighlydamagingandunnecessary.Asweknownow,hewasabletopersuadeYeltsin.
4.Irememberatthetimethattheamountofelectoralfalsification(ballotstuffing,etc.)wasnotdeemedtobeespecially
significant.Thefigurecirculatingwasintheorderof5percent-obviouslyimportantintheeventofaclosecontest,but
notenoughtoinfluenceproceedingsgiventhegeneralexpectationthatYeltsinwouldwinthesecondroundhandily.
5.Weretheelectionsfreeandfair?No.Infact,theformulationthenwasthattheelectionswere'free,butnotfair'.
Interestingly,though,adiplomaticcolleagueofminetoldmethathisEmbassy'slinewasthat'theelectionsshallbe
deemedfair'.
6.PartofthecheatingcamefromthepretensethatYeltsinwasthisvigorous,dynamic,andforward-lookingleaderin
contrasttoatired,regressiveZyuganov.Theirony,ofcourse,isthatYeltsinwasalreadyextremelyill,andcollapsed
soonafterbeingre-elected(remembertheclassicformulation-'workingonpapers'),whereasZyuganov,regressive
thoughheundoubtedlyremains,isstillverymuchwithus.
Bobo
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.I
sawacoupleofZiuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen
-wasitKoryagina?Mystrongimpressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirst
round,theynotonlydidntexpecthimtowin-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.They
obviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcometheresponsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadno
ideahowtosetaboutit.
OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhed
voted.Hesaidhehadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivic
duty,andthatthoughitwasntmybusinesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewent
outforawhile,andcamebacklatermumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.Much
laterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthepollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.He
wassayingthattheendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasa
greatexaggeration:indeeditmightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andso
demonstratedthattheCommunistswerenottheanswer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEast
Europeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hedmakesuretherewerenomoreelections.
Whoknows?
AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwina
ColdWar.INthiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabanana
republic.ItseemstomethatthelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.
Perhapswellendupasanormalcountry(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunch
aboveourweight.
To:RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>JulianCooper<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>Elizabeth
Teague<[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]>RichardConnolly
<[email protected]>PhilipHanson<[email protected]>RodericLyne<[email protected]>John
Besemeres<[email protected]>FriedErc<[email protected]>SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>DG
<[email protected]>BoboLo<[email protected]>SiriolHugh-Jones<[email protected]>
Dearfriends,
Formypart,IarrivedinMoscowasFirstSecretaryintheAustralianEmbassyafewdaysbeforetheDecember1995Dumaelections,
andlivedthroughthesix-monthpresidentialelectioncampaign.
1.Yeltsin'spopularityratingincreasedfrom2-3percentinJanuary1996to,ifmemoryserves,53percentinthesecondroundofthe
presidentials(versusZyuganov's38percent).Aremarkablechangeinfortunes,tosaytheleast!
2.So,howdidhedidhedoit?Well,alltheoligarchsgotbehindhimsothattherewasamassivediscrepancyinfinancialoutreach.
Then,theelectronicmedia(controlledbyseveraloftheoligarchs)gaveblanketpositivecoveragetoYeltsin,andcorrespondingly
negativecoveragetoZyuganov.Oneparticularexamplecomestomind-thetwocandidates'respectivedancingperformances.Yeltsin
wasshownrockingandrollingonafinedayinRedSquareinfrontofayoung,enthusiasticaudiencehavingagreattime.Zyuganovwas
shownmakingadog'sdinnerofaRussianfolkdance.Hewasfilmedfromabove,sothateveryonecouldseehisbaldingpate(compared
toY'sfineheadofhair),andsweatingprofuselyfromhisarmpitsandotherorifices.Hisaudiencewasalsohiscore,clapped-outand
grumpyCommunistPartyconstituency.Thesymbolismcouldnothavebeenmorestark,andboydidtheelectronicmedialaborthe
point!
3.AfriendofminewasplayingtenniswithGusinskyaboutamonthbeforethefirstround.GusinskysaidtherewasasplitintheYeltsin
campaboutwhattodowiththepresidentialelections-whethertogoaheadwiththem,ortocancel/postponethem.The'siloviki'(I
know,notatermthatcameintofashionuntillater!)closetoYeltsin,namely,KorzhakovandSoskovets,wereallforcanningthe
electionsonthebasisthattheycouldn'triskZ.comingtopower.Chubais,however,wasstronglyoftheviewthathecoulddelivera
positiveresult,andthattosuspendtheelectoralprocesswouldbebothhighlydamagingandunnecessary.Asweknownow,hewas
abletopersuadeYeltsin.
4.Irememberatthetimethattheamountofelectoralfalsification(ballotstuffing,etc.)wasnotdeemedtobeespeciallysignificant.The
figurecirculatingwasintheorderof5percent-obviouslyimportantintheeventofaclosecontest,butnotenoughtoinfluence
proceedingsgiventhegeneralexpectationthatYeltsinwouldwinthesecondroundhandily.
5.Weretheelectionsfreeandfair?No.Infact,theformulationthenwasthattheelectionswere'free,butnotfair'.Interestingly,though,
adiplomaticcolleagueofminetoldmethathisEmbassy'slinewasthat'theelectionsshallbedeemedfair'.
6.PartofthecheatingcamefromthepretensethatYeltsinwasthisvigorous,dynamic,andforward-lookingleaderincontrasttoatired,
regressiveZyuganov.Theirony,ofcourse,isthatYeltsinwasalreadyextremelyill,andcollapsedsoonafterbeingre-elected(remember
theclassicformulation-'workingonpapers'),whereasZyuganov,regressivethoughheundoubtedlyremains,isstillverymuchwithus.
Bobo
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacouple
ofZiuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?My
strongimpressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimto
win-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcomethe
responsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasnt
mybusinesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklater
mumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthe
pollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassaying
thattheendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeedit
mightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenotthe
answer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hed
makesuretherewerenomoreelections.Whoknows?
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstome
thatthelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormal
country(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.
Stephen



Julian#

DG
Klaus,
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

kolkhoz).
worst).
klaus
scepticism.
countfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
conflict16726

Julian

MalleDG

Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
berlin.de>wrote:


tryingveryhard.
mattersofnoimport?
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

R

On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
<[email protected]>
wrote:

Anotherview:
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>
RichardConnollyPhil
Roderic&MandyLyne
JohnBesemeresKlaus
SegbersFUFriedErc
RodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident
SentfrommyiPad
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message:
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myiPad
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forwarded
message:
Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
emailJune
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber
the
Ventures
civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
Senttime: 07/26/201612:14:01PM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:Stop
Subject:
PickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Notsur
Sent:Monday,July25,20169:50PM
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:
StopPickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Not
surp...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<[email protected]>
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon&MORE
From:GlenHoward<[email protected]>
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at4:11PM
Subject:RE:Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon
To:++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Abitofastretchbutinteresting.MollyMcKewisaformerpaidconsultanttoMishaSaakashvili.
PutinsSinisterRoleintheFailedTurkish
Coup
Analysis:PullingErdoganfromWesternOrbitisaRussianObjective
SHARE
TWEET
EMAIL
TurkishsoldierssecuretheareaassupportersofTurkey'sPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganprotestinIstanbul'sTaksimsquare/AP
BY:MollyMcKew
July25,20164:59am
OnegroupthatstandstogainsignificantlyfromErdoganspurgesarethelocalproponentsofEurasianistthinking.Inthedaysleading
uptotheattemptedcoup,AlexandrDugintheRussianideologuewhoisthefatherofthemodernEurasianMovementandafavorite
KremlinharbingerofconflictandannexationwassittinginAnkara,alternativelyvisitingwithleadingTurkishEurasianistsandcloseallies
ofPresidentErdogan.
Dugin,asGeorgiaandUkrainehavelearned,israrelynearaconflictbychance,oftenprovidingboththeideologicalfoundationsfor
modernRussianexpansionismandakindofadvanceteamforlocalmobilization.
Asearlyas2004,U.S.officialswarnedthatPutinaimedtodetachTurkeyfromtheWest.Couldtherapidrealignmentunderwayafterthe
coupindicatethatRussiashybridwartocaptureTurkeyintoitsgeopoliticalorbitisyieldingresults?
ATVcoup?
IntheaftermathofthefailedcoupinTurkey,morethan6,000membersofthemilitaryhavebeenarrestedmorethan50,000education
personnel,police,judges,andcivilservantshavebeenfiredandmillionsofacademicshavebeenbannedfromleavingthecountryuntil
potentialconnectionstothecoupplotareevaluated.Thespeedwithwhichtheenemieslistswereproduced,andwithwhichthearrests
wereconducted,hasledtoquestionsfromEuropeanofficialsaboutthegovernmentspreparationsinadvanceofthecoup.
ButtheconspiracytheoriesspinningoutofrecenteventsbothmaskandexposeadeepgeopoliticalshiftunderwayinTurkeythatcould
haveprofoundconsequencesforNATOandAmericanalliesintheregion.
StoriesarenowcirculatingthatRussianofficialswarnedtheirTurkishcounterpartsofthependingcoup,andthatIranianofficialswerein
contactwiththeirTurkishcounterpartsthroughoutthenight.BothstoriesaddtothesensethatsomeelementsinsideTurkeyaimedto
capitalizeuponthecouptowidenthedistancebetweenTurkeyanditsWesternalliesandcommitments.
Therapidpurgeofopponentshasamplifiedquestionsaboutthebafflingcoupattempt.Turkeysmilitaryhasstagedfoursuccessfulcoups
andthisiterationdeviatedfromthatplaybookinwaysthatdefyeasyexplanation.
IstanbulsbridgesovertheBosporuswereblockaded.BlackopsforcesappearedatthehotelinMarmariswherePresidentErdoganwas
supposedlystaying,droppingdownthesideofthebuildingonrope-lines.FighterjetsbrokethesoundbarrieroverIstanbulandAnkara,
andtanksdrovethroughthestreets,projectingtheappearanceofbroadmilitaryinvolvement.Cadetsfrommilitaryacademieswereenlisted
asmanpower.AninternationalTVstationwasseizedbutcontinuedtobroadcastthedramaticconflict.Communicationswerebroadly
uninterruptedthroughoutthecountry.SeveralbroadcasttextmessageswereevensentfromErdoganandhisalliestoTurkishcellphone
users,callingthemtothestreetstodefendtheirnation.
Theseactionsrequiredpre-planningbutmadelittletacticalsenseaseriesofpowerfulvisualsprojectingthatacoupwasunderway,and
providingrallypointsformediaanddemonstrators,butwhichheldlittlevalueinsecuringstrategicassets,institutions,andnational
politicalleaders.
Underscrutiny,itsnothardtoseewhysomeobserversbelievethecoupwasstaged.Inapollconductedafterthecoup,onethirdof
TurkssaidtheybelievedErdoganwasbehindthecoup.
Therise,fall,andreturnofTurkeysEurasianists
PresidentPutinhasbeenusingDuginasanemissarytotheTurkishelitesinceDuginaccompaniedPutinonanofficialvisitin2004.
HismissionwastobuildRussiasnetworkofinfluencetopullTurkeyawayfromtheWest.Thiswasbasedonhiscoreideathatanew
Eurasianempirewillbeconstructedonthefundamentalprincipleofthecommonenemy:therejectionofAtlanticism,strategiccontrol
[over]theUSA,andtherefusaltoallowliberalvaluestodominateus.
DuginsconceptofaTurkic-SlavicalliancefoundsupportersinTurkishnationalistcircles,especiallythoseidentifyingasKemalists,who
sawEurasianismasanalternativetoboththeEuropeanUnionandIslamism.
ThiswasespeciallytrueforsomeseniorTurkishmilitaryofficers.ManyofthisgroupwhichadvocatedforclosertieswithRussiaand
calledforTurkeytoleaveNATOwereimprisonedandconvictedafterbeingaccusedofparticipatingintheErgenekonterrorist
organization,anothersupposedgroupofcoupplottersopposedtoErdogan.InApril,TurkeysSupremeCourtofAppealsoverturnedthe
convictions,sayingtheorganizationhadneverexisted.
Addingtothelayersofcomplexity,GulenistsinthejudiciaryhadsupposedlybeeninstrumentalinconvictingtheErgenekongroup,acting
outanothersceneinTurkeyslongsecurlarists/militaryvs.Islamistsdrama.TheErgenekontrialsbecamepartofthebreak-upbetween
ErdoganandGulen.Gulenwentintoexile,andtheErgenekongroupanditsEurasianistbeliefshavebeenenjoyingaperiodof
rehabilitationwithErdoganandtheAKPrulingparty.
Theirrevivalmayreflectadeepershiftingeopoliticsthathaslargelybeenoverlooked,runningparalleltoErdogansownshiftawayfrom
EuropeanstructuresfollowingtheTaksimprotestsin2013.
Russianpressure
DuginspresenceinAnkarathroughoutthecoupandhislongtermactivitiesareareminderofthemulti-year,up-and-downRussianeffort
tobringTurkeyintotheEurasianorbitmoredownthanupinrecentyears.
ThewarinSyriaandtheriseofISIShavechangedthedynamicsoftheregion.AsPutinbackedandarmedAssad,Erdoganstood
byObamaincallingforAssadtoleavepower.TurkeyandRussiaendedgenerallywarmrelationsandbegantotradebarbsatonepoint
PutinevencalledforregimechangeinTurkey.ThesetensionscametoaheadafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianfighterjetthatviolatedits
airspaceinNovember2015.
Inthemonthsthatfollowed,RussiarampedupvariousformsofpressureonTurkeyanditspresident.Russiastalleda$15billionpipeline
deal,bannedRussiantouristsfromtravelingtoTurkey,andleviedothereconomicmeasures.InarmingKurdishmilitantsinSyria
andbuildingtieswithIraqiKurdistan,RussiaplayedupTurkishfearsofKurdishseparatism.TheRussianandTurkishmilitariessevered
ties.
RussianwarshipssailalmostdailythroughtheBosporus,sometimesbrandishingarms,carryingmenandmaterielfromSevastopolto
Tartus.FSBagentsaresuspectedofconductingaseriesofassassinationsofenemiesoftheRussianstateinTurkey.Bothmeasures
servetoremindoftheincreasingRussianreachbeyondtheBlackSea.Russiahasalsodeployedso-calledanti-access/areadenial
capabilitiesintheeasternMediterraneanthatcouldeffectivelyshutdownTurkishairspace.
RussianstatemediahasfrequentlycitedtherehabilitatedTurkishEurasianiststobuildthestoryofadeepriftbetweenErdoganandthe
militaryeliteonSyriapolicyandtiestoRussia.Russia,especiallythroughagentslikeDugin,activelysupportsgroupscallingfora
strategicrealignmentofTurkishinterests,buildingpoliticalpressureagainstErdoganinternally.
InMay,TurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluresigned,signaling,inretrospect,anendtotheperiodofdealmakingwiththeEUon
refugeesandTurkishaccession.BythetimeErdoganofferedanapologytoRussiaattheendofJuneforthedowningofthejet,Russian
pressurehadclearlyyieldedresults.ThebombingoftheIstanbulairportbyRussian-speakingmembersofISISthenextdayreinforced
thebeliefthatTurkeyneededanewapproachtoitsSyriapolicy.
DuginhadlongreferredtoDavutogluaspartofapro-Americanconspiracy(backed,ofcourse,byGulen)tokeepTurkeyfrommoving
towardRussia.Hisfriends,theformermilitaryleadersoftheErgenekongroup,arenowpartofDoguPerinceksHomelandParty,which
lastweekclaimedtheyhadbeensentbybusinessmenclosetoErdogantoimproverelationswithRussiaandre-establishtieswithSyrian
PresidentBasharal-Assad.
TheeventsofthelastweekhavelikelylimitedErdogansoptionswithhisWesternpartners.WhilePutinhassaidlittlefollowingthecoup
attempt,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywasquicktowarnthatTurkeysmembershipinNATOmightbeatstakeiftheyweakentheir
democracy.
Russianshadowoverthecoup
KerryspentthenightofthecouplockedawaywithRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov,hammeringoutthedetailsofasecretnew
agreementtocooperateonSyria.Duringthesediscussions,KerrycalledObamatheWhiteHousethenreleasedastatementsayingthey
supportedthedemocraticallyelectedgovernmentofTurkey.Fewothersdiduntilafterthecouphadfailed.
Dugin,meanwhile,metlessthantwohoursbeforethecoupwithcloseErdoganallyandMayorofAnkaraMelihGokcek,whoexplained
toDuginthatTurkeywasdividedbetweentwogroups:patriotsandGulenists/Americanagents.HesaidtheCIAhadusedtheGulen
movementtoputTurkeyatloggerheadswithRussia.ThepilotswhohadshotdowntheRussianplane,Gokceksaid,werealsoGulenist
agentsfollowingAmericanorders.
Aspartingwords,Gokcekoffered:Weunderestimatedthepoweroftheparallelstate,whichGulensfollowersandAmericanscreated
insideTurkey.Itwasourmistake.Butwearegoingtomakeitrightnow.ThefirststepwillbeanewrapprochementwithMoscow.
Afterthecoup,Gokcekannouncedthatthepilotshadbeendetained.
DuginnowsaystheU.S.-backedcoupwasaHailMarypasstokeepTurkeyfromrealigningwithRussia.
ButRussianstatemediahasalsoreleasedastorysayingErdoganwaspreparedforthecoupbecauseRussiainterceptedvialistening
stationsinnorthernSyriathatapparentlymonitorTurkishmilitarytransmissionsintelligenceonthecoupandnotifiedTurkeyinadvance.
TheTurkishmilitaryhadearliersaidtheyreceivedintelonthepotentialcoup,whichmayhaveforcedtheplotterstoinitiatetheirplan
earlierthanintended.
ARealignmenttoRussia
ThenationalisticoutpouringinsupportofErdogan(whichbecameprofoundlyanti-AmericaninnaturewhenaccusationsofGulenist
involvementweremade)andErdoganssubsequentdecisiontoenactdeeppurgesthroughoutnationalstructures(whichwillhave
consequenceswithWesternpartners)bothservetocreatedistancebetweenTurkeyandtheWest.
ThepresenceofcertainRussianactorsaroundthemarginsoftheTurkishcoupdoeslittletoansweranyquestionsaboutwhatreally
happenedonJuly15.ButitisclearthattheactivemeasurestakenagainstTurkeybyRussiainthemilitary,political,andeconomicrealms
areyieldingresults.AsanotherKremlinideologue,SergeyKaraganov,saidinaninterviewjustdaysbeforethecoupattempt:Intheface
ofourproblemswithTurkey,wehavepursuedaclear,hardpoliticallinewithsuccess.
CoercingTurkeyawayfromtheWesthasbeenagoalpursuedbyDuginsince1997.And,asLeninoncesaid:Inpoliticsitisnotso
importantwhodirectlyadvocatesparticularviews.Whatisimportantiswhostandstogainfromtheseviews,proposals,measures.
Inthissense,RussiahadagoodweekwithTurkey.Erdogansmilitarypurgewhichhasclearedmorethanaquarterofgeneralsfromthe
ranksmaymeanEurasianistsfillemptyslots.PutinandErdoganhaveannouncedtheywillmeetinearlyAugust.
Duginsmediaonslaughthascontinued.HeiscallingforaRussian-TurkishalliancetoexpeltheUnitedStatesandNATOfromtheBlack
Sea,andtoensureaTurkishdeparturefromNATO.HesaysKerrysuggestedkickingTurkeyoutofNATOtopre-emptTurkeys
announcementthatitwillwithdraw.Whilethereisnoclearwaytoremoveamemberfromtheallianceforbadbehavior,quittingonly
takesaletter.
IfRussiahadwantedtodesignacampaignofreflexivecontrolusingdisinformationtocoerceanadversaryintovoluntarilyselecting
actionsthatwillbeadvantageoustoRussiaagainstTurkey,itcouldnthavedoneitanybetter.Thismaysoundlikethestuffof
conspiracies,buttheideathatRussiaknowshowtousefictionforpoliticalgainishardlyfar-fetched.EstoniasForeignMinisterrecently
describedhowRussiaissimulatingawarovertheBalticseainordertoshowawaronstateTV.Ifamade-for-TVwarwhynota
made-for-TVcoup?
ThereareprofoundconsequencestoignoringRussiasmany-frontedhybridwaragainsttheWest,andfromfailingtoacknowledgethat
Turkeyis,andhasbeen,asmuchatargetofthiswarasUkraineortheBalticstates.Aslongastheseexplanations,whichareamply
documentedwithcircumstantialandfrequentlydirectevidence,aredismissedasconspiracytheories,leaderscanduckresponsibilityfor
addressingthecrisis.
From:VRT
Subject:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC[ED:Now,hereisacriticallyobjective
voiceyoutell'em,Ed.]
Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProving
RussiaHackedDNC
[Image:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC]
EdwardSnowden(PhotocreditAFPTV/AFP/GettyImages)
ByMarkSwanson|Monday,25Jul201601:05PM
InfamouswhistleblowerEdwardSnowdentooktoTwitteronMondaytoweighinonthehackingandleakingof
20,000DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,theWashingtonExaminerreported.
TheformerNSAcontractor,currentlylivinginRussiatoavoidextraditiontotheU.S.overintelligencesecrets
heleakedyearsago,saidtheU.S.governmentcanandshouldshowproofthatRussiaisresponsiblefortheDNC
leaks.
Basically,nowthatU.S.Intelligencesurveillancesecretsaren'tsecretanymore,Snowdensaysthegovernment
shouldrevealwho'sbehindtheleak,ifandwhenitknowsforsure.
Special:ThisStrange60-SecondTrickReversesDiabetes?
PresidentObamahasresistedcallsfromhisnationalsecurityteamstodoso,theExaminerreports.
TheemaildumponFridayhasembarrassedDemocratsafterexposingleadership'sdealingswithBernie
SandersandledtotheswiftresignationannouncementofDNCChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultz.
U.S.cybersecurityfirmshavefoundthesameRussianintelligencehackerstheydiscoveredlodgedinsensitive
governmentagencyserversbeforeareresponsiblefortheDNChack.
RelatedStories:
NYTimesHintsPutinMayHaveLeakedDNCEmailstoAidTrump
FBIInvestigatesDNCHackingClintonCampaignBlamesRussia
2016Newsmax.Allrightsreserved.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Edward-Snowden-DNC-Leaks-
Russia/2016/07/25/id/740336/#ixzz4FSi3H73Q
From:<[email protected]>
Subject:AnneApplebaum:RussiadoesitsbesttoelectPresidentTrump[ED:AA'smostinterestingpointmaybea
remarkaboutthepoliticaltechnologythattheRussianshaveusedto'destabilizedemocraticgovernmentsinEE']
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/anne-applebaum-russia-does-its-best-to-elect-president-trump
Whateverone'spoliticalchoicesarevisavistheUScandidatesforthePresidency,thefollowingisthemostimportant
pointAnneAmakesinthearticle:
HowwouldtheRussiansknowthattheemails,ratherthantheidentityofthehackers,wouldcapturethepublic
imagination?Becausethiskindoftrickhasbeenplayedbefore.Inseveralpost-communistcountriesPoland,
Hungary,Slovakia,Ukrainesecretlytapedconversationshavebeenusedtodestabilize
democraticgovernmentsand,insomecases,coincidentallyorotherwise,toreplacethemwith
populistoranti-EuropeangovernmentsmoretoRussiasliking.
From:StephenBlank<[email protected]>
Subject:Re:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPI
Bulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenuke
arsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristolpieceonD/T]Putin'sParty??[HU]RUHackedDNCE-
mails[GoodquestionfromHU:IftheRussianshackedarelativelysecureDNCsite,whatdoyouthinktheydidto
Hilary'sunsecuredserver?]
alltootypical
StephenBlank
[email protected]
From:ForeignPolicy<[email protected]>
Subject:Editors'Picks
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From:jm200p<[email protected]>
Subject:fyi[ED:TOSunIntendsTitleasaSpoof.butitain'tsofunnyanymore]
To:
Senttime: 07/29/201605:15:43AM
To: DavidWall<[email protected]>
SentfrommyiPad
To:JulianCooper<[email protected]>
Cc:StephenFortescue<[email protected]>,KlausSegbers<[email protected]>,KyleWilson
<[email protected]>,RobertHorvath<[email protected]>,BoboLo<[email protected]>,
carolinavendilpallin<[email protected]>,ElizabethTeague<[email protected]>,"
<[email protected]>"<[email protected]>,RichardConnolly<[email protected]>,Philip
Hanson<[email protected]>,RodericLyne<[email protected]>,JohnBesemeres
<[email protected]>,FriedErc<[email protected]>,SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>,DG
<[email protected]>
AmericanPresident
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacoupleof
Ziuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?Mystrong
impressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimtowin-they
weaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcometheresponsibilityof
sortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasntmy
businesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklatermumbling
somethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthepollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassayingthat
theendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeeditmight
besalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenottheanswer:the
scenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hedmakesurethere
werenomoreelections.Whoknows?
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstomethat
thelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormalcountry
(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.
Stephen

DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelection
inancommentmadeataclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenand
now;afilialoftheKhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstate
corporation.Alsoinvolvednowinimportsubstitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoil
andgasindustry.
Julian#
Cc:JulianCooperRodricBraithwaiteKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabeth
Teague<[email protected]>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFried
ErcSilvanaMalleDG
AmericanPresident
Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytoget
youdrunk.Anumberofmywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.Oneofthemwasthechiefengineerof
theVoronezhMekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat'sthename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),who
becametheheadofthelocalprivatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectforChubais.Idon'tremember
talkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehewouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehe
wouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinterestingmeetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunityto
describesomeothertime-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemebera
colorfulkolkhoz).
theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationson
electionday.unlessyoutakeattemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversas
falsifications(icouldresisttheworst).
mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredisliked
zyuganov,though.also,weshouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetank
infrontofthewhitehousebuttheonelettinghisdaughterandothersgrabstuff,andletting
korzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,cumberezovskyietal..
themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthe
nationalismornostalgic'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'to
continueinstitutionalreformsandintegratingthecountryintotheworld(whatwasonthe
agendathen,wemaycomparewithtoday,havingtearsinoureyes).
klaus
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.
I'vegotonequestion,Isupposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shis
referencestothe'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand'massiveelectoralfraud'
ofthe1996elections.Thesearecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatone
seeseverywherethesedays,indeedasiftheyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Is
theclaimthatthecountingwassimplyfaked,andthatifthevoteshadbeen
countedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?Ifthatistheclaim,isthere
evidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotawareof
it.IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseor
disbeliefintheoutcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnot
haveexpectedscepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportfor
Yeltsinandsoon(andmaybethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').Iremember
theTVcampaigns-IrememberseeingYeltsin'sfamousdancingonstage-and
thereasonablyrelentlessdocumentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.Asfar
asIcouldtellthedocumentarieswereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewas
certainlysomethingaboutthetiming.Ialsoremember
Zyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethatIwasawareofitandits
content,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbemore
electorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.
AndIrememberthedealwithLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabig
chunkofvotesinthesecondround.IhavetoadmitthatIhavenomemoryof
Yavlinskybeingaviablecandidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnot
throughhardcore,butthroughstraightdownthelineballot
boxstuffingandcountfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On28Jul2016,at19:09,JulianCooper<[email protected]>
wrote:
Changingthesubjecttosomeextent,thelatestfromDimitri
Simes
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamerica
destinedconflict16726

Julian

Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvath
BoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague
<[email protected]>RichardConnollyPhilipHanson
RodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponized

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehow
bigallthisreallyisintheUScampaign,andwhyamIcommenting
onaplaceI'vebarelyevenvisitedinmylife,butiftheDemocrats
arerelyingontheRussiancardtogetthemovertheline,we've
gotabigproblemandifwethinkPutinisthesourceofallour
problems,we'vegotanevenbiggerproblem.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at21:57,prof.dr.klaussegbers
stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlin
butaboutpoliticallygiftedclownssensing
opportunities.theyfeelhowmanypeopleareclue-
andhelplessfacingsocialandculturalchallenges
relatedtoglobalization.theypersonalizethese
feelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),and
offeringsimplified(andmostlynotviable)solutions
('let'sbuildawall').thisisthelinkbetweenputin,
orban,erdogan,trump,xi(exploitingtheanti-elite
feelingsbypromotinganti-corruption)and,maybe,
natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).

Am27.07.2016um13:34schriebStephen
Fortescue:
Iclaimnoexpertiseinthesematters
andI'mgoingjustontheevidence
containedinthevariousarticles
referredtointhiscorrespondence,but
itseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotit
rightregardingpossiblefinanciallinks
betweenPutinandTrump.The
evidenceisverythin-infactnonethat
anyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthave
areclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,
Trump'slackofbusinesssuccessin
Russiawouldsuggestthelackofa
connection,ratherthantheotherway
around.Butbythesoundofithe
generallysenthissontoMoscow,so
maybehewasn'teventryingvery
hard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn't
presentaviewoftheworldwhichis
veryattractivetotheRussians,andthat
they'rehopefulthathe'llwin.Iknow
nomoreaboutcomputerhackingthan
abouthotelfinancing,butthatevidence
doessoundmoreconvincing,andwhy
wouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussian
stuffisinthecampaign,butonecan't
helphavingthenastyfeelingthat
EstoniabeinginthesuburbsofSt
PetersburgandHilaryisawarmonger
mightbeattractivepropositionsto
morevotersthanIliketothinkabout.
HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,say,
China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,or
aretheymattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthe
presidentialwebsitereportof
yesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,
Putinissaidtohavereportedonthe
forthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussia
andPutin'stelephoneconversations
withErdoganandNetahanyu,allinone
sentenceandasiftheywerealllinked.
AmIgettingtooKremlinological,or
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,Rodric
Braithwaite
Idbeveryinterestedin
commentsontheJosh
Marshallarticle.

R

On26Jul
2016,at
09:42,Julian
Cooper
<[email protected]>
wrote:

Another
view:
hawks%E2%80%99
election
strategy
pushing
newcold
war17113

Julian

From:Kyle
Wilson
Sent:26
July2016
00:11
To:Robert
Horvath
BoboLo
Julian
Cooper
carolina
vendilpallin
<[email protected]>
<[email protected]>
Richard
Connolly
PhilRoderic
&Mandy
LyneJohn
Besemeres
Klaus
SegbersFU
FriedErc
Rodric
Braithwaite
Stephen
Fortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
HowPutin
Weaponized
Wikileaksto
Influencethe
Electionofan
American
President
Sentfrom
myiPad
Begin
forwarded
message:
Sent
from
my
iPad
Begin
forwarded
message:
Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT

Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
June
email
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber
the
Ventures
civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
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phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
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Senttime: 07/26/201612:14:01PM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:Stop
Subject:
PickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Notsur
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:
StopPickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Not
surp...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<[email protected]>
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon&MORE
From:GlenHoward<[email protected]>
Subject:RE:Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon
To:++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Abitofastretchbutinteresting.MollyMcKewisaformerpaidconsultanttoMishaSaakashvili.
PutinsSinisterRoleintheFailedTurkish
Coup
Analysis:PullingErdoganfromWesternOrbitisaRussianObjective
SHARE
TWEET
EMAIL
TurkishsoldierssecuretheareaassupportersofTurkey'sPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganprotestinIstanbul'sTaksimsquare/AP
BY:MollyMcKew
July25,20164:59am
OnegroupthatstandstogainsignificantlyfromErdoganspurgesarethelocalproponentsofEurasianistthinking.Inthedaysleading
uptotheattemptedcoup,AlexandrDugintheRussianideologuewhoisthefatherofthemodernEurasianMovementandafavorite
KremlinharbingerofconflictandannexationwassittinginAnkara,alternativelyvisitingwithleadingTurkishEurasianistsandcloseallies
ofPresidentErdogan.
Dugin,asGeorgiaandUkrainehavelearned,israrelynearaconflictbychance,oftenprovidingboththeideologicalfoundationsfor
modernRussianexpansionismandakindofadvanceteamforlocalmobilization.
Asearlyas2004,U.S.officialswarnedthatPutinaimedtodetachTurkeyfromtheWest.Couldtherapidrealignmentunderwayafterthe
coupindicatethatRussiashybridwartocaptureTurkeyintoitsgeopoliticalorbitisyieldingresults?
ATVcoup?
IntheaftermathofthefailedcoupinTurkey,morethan6,000membersofthemilitaryhavebeenarrestedmorethan50,000education
personnel,police,judges,andcivilservantshavebeenfiredandmillionsofacademicshavebeenbannedfromleavingthecountryuntil
potentialconnectionstothecoupplotareevaluated.Thespeedwithwhichtheenemieslistswereproduced,andwithwhichthearrests
wereconducted,hasledtoquestionsfromEuropeanofficialsaboutthegovernmentspreparationsinadvanceofthecoup.
ButtheconspiracytheoriesspinningoutofrecenteventsbothmaskandexposeadeepgeopoliticalshiftunderwayinTurkeythatcould
haveprofoundconsequencesforNATOandAmericanalliesintheregion.
StoriesarenowcirculatingthatRussianofficialswarnedtheirTurkishcounterpartsofthependingcoup,andthatIranianofficialswerein
contactwiththeirTurkishcounterpartsthroughoutthenight.BothstoriesaddtothesensethatsomeelementsinsideTurkeyaimedto
capitalizeuponthecouptowidenthedistancebetweenTurkeyanditsWesternalliesandcommitments.
Therapidpurgeofopponentshasamplifiedquestionsaboutthebafflingcoupattempt.Turkeysmilitaryhasstagedfoursuccessfulcoups
andthisiterationdeviatedfromthatplaybookinwaysthatdefyeasyexplanation.
IstanbulsbridgesovertheBosporuswereblockaded.BlackopsforcesappearedatthehotelinMarmariswherePresidentErdoganwas
supposedlystaying,droppingdownthesideofthebuildingonrope-lines.FighterjetsbrokethesoundbarrieroverIstanbulandAnkara,
andtanksdrovethroughthestreets,projectingtheappearanceofbroadmilitaryinvolvement.Cadetsfrommilitaryacademieswereenlisted
asmanpower.AninternationalTVstationwasseizedbutcontinuedtobroadcastthedramaticconflict.Communicationswerebroadly
uninterruptedthroughoutthecountry.SeveralbroadcasttextmessageswereevensentfromErdoganandhisalliestoTurkishcellphone
users,callingthemtothestreetstodefendtheirnation.
Theseactionsrequiredpre-planningbutmadelittletacticalsenseaseriesofpowerfulvisualsprojectingthatacoupwasunderway,and
providingrallypointsformediaanddemonstrators,butwhichheldlittlevalueinsecuringstrategicassets,institutions,andnational
politicalleaders.
Underscrutiny,itsnothardtoseewhysomeobserversbelievethecoupwasstaged.Inapollconductedafterthecoup,onethirdof
TurkssaidtheybelievedErdoganwasbehindthecoup.
Therise,fall,andreturnofTurkeysEurasianists
PresidentPutinhasbeenusingDuginasanemissarytotheTurkishelitesinceDuginaccompaniedPutinonanofficialvisitin2004.
HismissionwastobuildRussiasnetworkofinfluencetopullTurkeyawayfromtheWest.Thiswasbasedonhiscoreideathatanew
Eurasianempirewillbeconstructedonthefundamentalprincipleofthecommonenemy:therejectionofAtlanticism,strategiccontrol
[over]theUSA,andtherefusaltoallowliberalvaluestodominateus.
DuginsconceptofaTurkic-SlavicalliancefoundsupportersinTurkishnationalistcircles,especiallythoseidentifyingasKemalists,who
sawEurasianismasanalternativetoboththeEuropeanUnionandIslamism.
ThiswasespeciallytrueforsomeseniorTurkishmilitaryofficers.ManyofthisgroupwhichadvocatedforclosertieswithRussiaand
calledforTurkeytoleaveNATOwereimprisonedandconvictedafterbeingaccusedofparticipatingintheErgenekonterrorist
organization,anothersupposedgroupofcoupplottersopposedtoErdogan.InApril,TurkeysSupremeCourtofAppealsoverturnedthe
convictions,sayingtheorganizationhadneverexisted.
Addingtothelayersofcomplexity,GulenistsinthejudiciaryhadsupposedlybeeninstrumentalinconvictingtheErgenekongroup,acting
outanothersceneinTurkeyslongsecurlarists/militaryvs.Islamistsdrama.TheErgenekontrialsbecamepartofthebreak-upbetween
ErdoganandGulen.Gulenwentintoexile,andtheErgenekongroupanditsEurasianistbeliefshavebeenenjoyingaperiodof
rehabilitationwithErdoganandtheAKPrulingparty.
Theirrevivalmayreflectadeepershiftingeopoliticsthathaslargelybeenoverlooked,runningparalleltoErdogansownshiftawayfrom
EuropeanstructuresfollowingtheTaksimprotestsin2013.
Russianpressure
DuginspresenceinAnkarathroughoutthecoupandhislongtermactivitiesareareminderofthemulti-year,up-and-downRussianeffort
tobringTurkeyintotheEurasianorbitmoredownthanupinrecentyears.
ThewarinSyriaandtheriseofISIShavechangedthedynamicsoftheregion.AsPutinbackedandarmedAssad,Erdoganstood
byObamaincallingforAssadtoleavepower.TurkeyandRussiaendedgenerallywarmrelationsandbegantotradebarbsatonepoint
PutinevencalledforregimechangeinTurkey.ThesetensionscametoaheadafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianfighterjetthatviolatedits
airspaceinNovember2015.
Inthemonthsthatfollowed,RussiarampedupvariousformsofpressureonTurkeyanditspresident.Russiastalleda$15billionpipeline
deal,bannedRussiantouristsfromtravelingtoTurkey,andleviedothereconomicmeasures.InarmingKurdishmilitantsinSyria
andbuildingtieswithIraqiKurdistan,RussiaplayedupTurkishfearsofKurdishseparatism.TheRussianandTurkishmilitariessevered
ties.
RussianwarshipssailalmostdailythroughtheBosporus,sometimesbrandishingarms,carryingmenandmaterielfromSevastopolto
Tartus.FSBagentsaresuspectedofconductingaseriesofassassinationsofenemiesoftheRussianstateinTurkey.Bothmeasures
servetoremindoftheincreasingRussianreachbeyondtheBlackSea.Russiahasalsodeployedso-calledanti-access/areadenial
capabilitiesintheeasternMediterraneanthatcouldeffectivelyshutdownTurkishairspace.
RussianstatemediahasfrequentlycitedtherehabilitatedTurkishEurasianiststobuildthestoryofadeepriftbetweenErdoganandthe
militaryeliteonSyriapolicyandtiestoRussia.Russia,especiallythroughagentslikeDugin,activelysupportsgroupscallingfora
strategicrealignmentofTurkishinterests,buildingpoliticalpressureagainstErdoganinternally.
InMay,TurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluresigned,signaling,inretrospect,anendtotheperiodofdealmakingwiththeEUon
refugeesandTurkishaccession.BythetimeErdoganofferedanapologytoRussiaattheendofJuneforthedowningofthejet,Russian
pressurehadclearlyyieldedresults.ThebombingoftheIstanbulairportbyRussian-speakingmembersofISISthenextdayreinforced
thebeliefthatTurkeyneededanewapproachtoitsSyriapolicy.
DuginhadlongreferredtoDavutogluaspartofapro-Americanconspiracy(backed,ofcourse,byGulen)tokeepTurkeyfrommoving
towardRussia.Hisfriends,theformermilitaryleadersoftheErgenekongroup,arenowpartofDoguPerinceksHomelandParty,which
lastweekclaimedtheyhadbeensentbybusinessmenclosetoErdogantoimproverelationswithRussiaandre-establishtieswithSyrian
PresidentBasharal-Assad.
TheeventsofthelastweekhavelikelylimitedErdogansoptionswithhisWesternpartners.WhilePutinhassaidlittlefollowingthecoup
attempt,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywasquicktowarnthatTurkeysmembershipinNATOmightbeatstakeiftheyweakentheir
democracy.
Russianshadowoverthecoup
KerryspentthenightofthecouplockedawaywithRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov,hammeringoutthedetailsofasecretnew
agreementtocooperateonSyria.Duringthesediscussions,KerrycalledObamatheWhiteHousethenreleasedastatementsayingthey
supportedthedemocraticallyelectedgovernmentofTurkey.Fewothersdiduntilafterthecouphadfailed.
Dugin,meanwhile,metlessthantwohoursbeforethecoupwithcloseErdoganallyandMayorofAnkaraMelihGokcek,whoexplained
toDuginthatTurkeywasdividedbetweentwogroups:patriotsandGulenists/Americanagents.HesaidtheCIAhadusedtheGulen
movementtoputTurkeyatloggerheadswithRussia.ThepilotswhohadshotdowntheRussianplane,Gokceksaid,werealsoGulenist
agentsfollowingAmericanorders.
Aspartingwords,Gokcekoffered:Weunderestimatedthepoweroftheparallelstate,whichGulensfollowersandAmericanscreated
insideTurkey.Itwasourmistake.Butwearegoingtomakeitrightnow.ThefirststepwillbeanewrapprochementwithMoscow.
Afterthecoup,Gokcekannouncedthatthepilotshadbeendetained.
DuginnowsaystheU.S.-backedcoupwasaHailMarypasstokeepTurkeyfromrealigningwithRussia.
ButRussianstatemediahasalsoreleasedastorysayingErdoganwaspreparedforthecoupbecauseRussiainterceptedvialistening
stationsinnorthernSyriathatapparentlymonitorTurkishmilitarytransmissionsintelligenceonthecoupandnotifiedTurkeyinadvance.
TheTurkishmilitaryhadearliersaidtheyreceivedintelonthepotentialcoup,whichmayhaveforcedtheplotterstoinitiatetheirplan
earlierthanintended.
ARealignmenttoRussia
ThenationalisticoutpouringinsupportofErdogan(whichbecameprofoundlyanti-AmericaninnaturewhenaccusationsofGulenist
involvementweremade)andErdoganssubsequentdecisiontoenactdeeppurgesthroughoutnationalstructures(whichwillhave
consequenceswithWesternpartners)bothservetocreatedistancebetweenTurkeyandtheWest.
ThepresenceofcertainRussianactorsaroundthemarginsoftheTurkishcoupdoeslittletoansweranyquestionsaboutwhatreally
happenedonJuly15.ButitisclearthattheactivemeasurestakenagainstTurkeybyRussiainthemilitary,political,andeconomicrealms
areyieldingresults.AsanotherKremlinideologue,SergeyKaraganov,saidinaninterviewjustdaysbeforethecoupattempt:Intheface
ofourproblemswithTurkey,wehavepursuedaclear,hardpoliticallinewithsuccess.
CoercingTurkeyawayfromtheWesthasbeenagoalpursuedbyDuginsince1997.And,asLeninoncesaid:Inpoliticsitisnotso
importantwhodirectlyadvocatesparticularviews.Whatisimportantiswhostandstogainfromtheseviews,proposals,measures.
Inthissense,RussiahadagoodweekwithTurkey.Erdogansmilitarypurgewhichhasclearedmorethanaquarterofgeneralsfromthe
ranksmaymeanEurasianistsfillemptyslots.PutinandErdoganhaveannouncedtheywillmeetinearlyAugust.
Duginsmediaonslaughthascontinued.HeiscallingforaRussian-TurkishalliancetoexpeltheUnitedStatesandNATOfromtheBlack
Sea,andtoensureaTurkishdeparturefromNATO.HesaysKerrysuggestedkickingTurkeyoutofNATOtopre-emptTurkeys
announcementthatitwillwithdraw.Whilethereisnoclearwaytoremoveamemberfromtheallianceforbadbehavior,quittingonly
takesaletter.
IfRussiahadwantedtodesignacampaignofreflexivecontrolusingdisinformationtocoerceanadversaryintovoluntarilyselecting
actionsthatwillbeadvantageoustoRussiaagainstTurkey,itcouldnthavedoneitanybetter.Thismaysoundlikethestuffof
conspiracies,buttheideathatRussiaknowshowtousefictionforpoliticalgainishardlyfar-fetched.EstoniasForeignMinisterrecently
describedhowRussiaissimulatingawarovertheBalticseainordertoshowawaronstateTV.Ifamade-for-TVwarwhynota
made-for-TVcoup?
ThereareprofoundconsequencestoignoringRussiasmany-frontedhybridwaragainsttheWest,andfromfailingtoacknowledgethat
Turkeyis,andhasbeen,asmuchatargetofthiswarasUkraineortheBalticstates.Aslongastheseexplanations,whichareamply
documentedwithcircumstantialandfrequentlydirectevidence,aredismissedasconspiracytheories,leaderscanduckresponsibilityfor
addressingthecrisis.
From:VRT
Subject:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC[ED:Now,hereisacriticallyobjective
voiceyoutell'em,Ed.]
Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProving
RussiaHackedDNC
[Image:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC]
EdwardSnowden(PhotocreditAFPTV/AFP/GettyImages)
ByMarkSwanson|Monday,25Jul201601:05PM
InfamouswhistleblowerEdwardSnowdentooktoTwitteronMondaytoweighinonthehackingandleakingof
20,000DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,theWashingtonExaminerreported.
TheformerNSAcontractor,currentlylivinginRussiatoavoidextraditiontotheU.S.overintelligencesecrets
heleakedyearsago,saidtheU.S.governmentcanandshouldshowproofthatRussiaisresponsiblefortheDNC
leaks.
Basically,nowthatU.S.Intelligencesurveillancesecretsaren'tsecretanymore,Snowdensaysthegovernment
shouldrevealwho'sbehindtheleak,ifandwhenitknowsforsure.
Special:ThisStrange60-SecondTrickReversesDiabetes?
PresidentObamahasresistedcallsfromhisnationalsecurityteamstodoso,theExaminerreports.
TheemaildumponFridayhasembarrassedDemocratsafterexposingleadership'sdealingswithBernie
SandersandledtotheswiftresignationannouncementofDNCChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultz.
U.S.cybersecurityfirmshavefoundthesameRussianintelligencehackerstheydiscoveredlodgedinsensitive
governmentagencyserversbeforeareresponsiblefortheDNChack.
RelatedStories:
NYTimesHintsPutinMayHaveLeakedDNCEmailstoAidTrump
FBIInvestigatesDNCHackingClintonCampaignBlamesRussia
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Edward-Snowden-DNC-Leaks-
Russia/2016/07/25/id/740336/#ixzz4FSi3H73Q
Subject:AnneApplebaum:RussiadoesitsbesttoelectPresidentTrump[ED:AA'smostinterestingpointmaybea
remarkaboutthepoliticaltechnologythattheRussianshaveusedto'destabilizedemocraticgovernmentsinEE']
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/anne-applebaum-russia-does-its-best-to-elect-president-trump
Whateverone'spoliticalchoicesarevisavistheUScandidatesforthePresidency,thefollowingisthemostimportant
pointAnneAmakesinthearticle:
HowwouldtheRussiansknowthattheemails,ratherthantheidentityofthehackers,wouldcapturethepublic
imagination?Becausethiskindoftrickhasbeenplayedbefore.Inseveralpost-communistcountriesPoland,
Hungary,Slovakia,Ukrainesecretlytapedconversationshavebeenusedtodestabilize
democraticgovernmentsand,insomecases,coincidentallyorotherwise,toreplacethemwith
populistoranti-EuropeangovernmentsmoretoRussiasliking.
From:StephenBlank<[email protected]>
Subject:Re:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPI
Bulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenuke
arsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristolpieceonD/T]Putin'sParty??[HU]RUHackedDNCE-
mails[GoodquestionfromHU:IftheRussianshackedarelativelysecureDNCsite,whatdoyouthinktheydidto
Hilary'sunsecuredserver?]
alltootypical
StephenBlank
[email protected]
From:ForeignPolicy<[email protected]>
Subject:Editors'Picks
Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.

Sponsoredby

EDITORS'PICKS

Monday,July25

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookatMoscowsmeddlingintheUnitedStates...

1 DONALDANDVLAD:TrumpandPutinmightnotbeholdinghands,

buttheyreclearlyfriendswithbenefits**********Readmore

4 MOSCOWSMEDDLING:FromUkrainetoGermany,Russiabeen

interferinginelectionsforyears.*********Readmore

ListenandsubscribetoFPpodcastsoniTunesandStitcher:here.
ForeignPolicyMagazine
[email protected]

[email protected]@foreignpolicy.com.

From:jm200p<[email protected]>
Subject:fyi[ED:TOSunIntendsTitleasaSpoof.butitain'tsofunnyanymore]
To:
Senttime: 07/26/201608:57:59AM
Subject: FW:MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,July26,20168:58AM
Subject:MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
BehindtheallegationsofaRussianhackoftheDNCistheKremlinleadersFURYatClintonfor
challengingthefairnessofRussianelections[in2011].
And:StevenLeeMyersandNeilMacFarquhar,ToDemocrats,EmailHACKsuggestsTRUMPhasnew
supporter:PUTIN,nytimes.com,7/26
NowthequestionhasemergedintheUnitedStateselectioncampaignwhetherMr.Putinhasopted
directlyorcovertlytothrowRussiassupportbehindMr.Trump.Theconclusionbycybersecurity
expertsthatRussianintelligenceagenciesbreachedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandreleased
thousandsofemailsontheeveofthepartysconventionpromptedaccusationsfromDemocratsand
someRepublicansthatMr.TrumpwasakindofSiberiancandidate,bolsteredfromabroadto
underminethenation.
And:MichaelMcFAUL,Mr.Trump,NATOisanALLIANCE,notaprotectionracket,oped,
Theframingofalliancerelationshipsasprotectionracketcontractsmissesthestrategicvalueofallies
totheUnitedStates.
And:ThomasRID[cyberattackspecialistatKingsCollege,London],AllsignsPOINTtoRussiabeing
behindtheDNChack,[thishighlydetailedarticleisrecommendedbymathematicianAndrei
PIONTKOVSKII],http://motherboard.vice.com/read/allsignspointtorussiabeingbehindthednc
hack
Themetadataintheleakeddocumentsareperhapsmostrevealing:onedumpeddocumentwas
modifiedusingRussianlanguagesettingsThemetadatashowthattheRussianoperatorsapparently
editedsomedocuments,andinsomecasescreatednewdocumentsNotreactingpoliticallytothe
DNChackissettingadangerousprecedent.Aforeignagency,exploitingWikileaksandacutthroat
mediamarketplace,appearstobecarefullyplanningandtimingahighstakespoliticalcampaigninthe
UnitedStatesthatcouldescalatenextweek,nextfall,ornexttime.Trump,ironically,isrightthe
systemisactuallyrigged[byRussia].
And:PutintoSHUNOlympicopeningceremony[toavoidbeingshunned?],themsocowtimes.com,
7/25
And:RussianOlympicTeamcouldbereducedto40athletes[areductioninsizeof90%],
themoscowtimes.com,7/26
And:TheFSBiscarryingoutsearchesatthedirectoroftheRussianFederalCustomsService:
http://graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.253352.html
Senttime: 07/26/201605:46:54AM
apologiesifIsentthisonealready--amabitconfused....
To:KyleWilson<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>CooperJulian<[email protected]>
carolinavendilpallin<[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]>
<[email protected]>RichardConnolly<[email protected]>Phil<[email protected]>Roderic&Mandy
Lyne<[email protected]>JohnBesemeres<[email protected]>KlausSegbersFU<[email protected]>
FriedErc<[email protected]>RodricBraithwaite<[email protected]>StephenFortescue<[email protected]>
SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>SiriolHugh-Jones<[email protected]>
CC:DG<[email protected]>BoboLo<[email protected]>
Sent:Tue,26Jul20161:52
Subject:Re:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
Speakingofspecialrelationships,youmightbeinterestedinthispiecefromtheGuardian'sChiefSportsCorrespondent
-http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jul/25/rio-olympics-russia-drugs-vladimir-putin-ioc
Bobo
OnTuesday,26July2016,0:10,KyleWilson<[email protected]>wrote:
SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaksto

TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallyaThing
By JOSHMARSHALL Published JULY23,2016,4:15PMEDT
Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainabouttheseemingbromancebetween
DonaldTrumpandRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,butrelatedly,many
believeTrumpisanadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin'sincreasinglyautocraticand
illiberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ataminimum,Trumpappearstohave
adeepfinancialdependenceonRussianmoneyfrompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisis
matchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousnesstoRussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycome
intoconflictwithUSpolicieswhichgobackdecadesthroughadministrationsofbothparties.
Thereisalsosomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidence
suggestingPutin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSeffortstoextend
securityguaranteestocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'nearabroad'or
extendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnewstateswhichforcenturies
werepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.Thisisn'tamatterofindifferenceto
thesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcostsof
suchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountriesarenowpartofNATO.Security
commitmentshavebeenmadewhichabsolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyother
areaswheresuchcommitmentshavenotbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonot
cometothisquestionorthesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationorcoldrelations
withRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoneyflowingintoTrump'scoffers
andheisconspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicypriorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhasgrowndramatically
overthelastyear,from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustoneyearwhilehisliquid
assetshavealsodecreased.TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfromRussia,mostofwhichhas
overtheyearsbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsandsub-garchscloseto
VladimirPutin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashingtonPost,withonemorselfor
illustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershavemadenumeroustripsto
Moscowinsearchofbusinessopportunities,andtheyhavereliedonRussian
investorstobuytheirpropertiesaroundtheworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotofour
assets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,toldarealestateconferencein2008,
accordingtoanaccountpostedonthewebsiteofeTurboNews,atrade
publication.WeseealotofmoneypouringinfromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,oneofTrump'slargest
recentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsinresponsetosometypically
Trumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsbymakingfraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealth
oftheproject.Emergingoutofthatlitigationhoweverwasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfor
theprojectfromRussiaandKazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthe
presenceofatwiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussiancriminal
underworld.Butthat'snotthemostsalientpartofthestory.AstheTimesputit,
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentinTrumpSoHoandthreeother
BayrockprojectsbyanIcelandicfirmpreferredbywealthyRussiansinfavor
withPresidentVladimirV.Putin,accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockby
oneofitsformerexecutives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,wasidentified
inaBayrockinvestorpresentationasastrategicpartner,alongwith
AlexanderMashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedinacorruptioncase
involvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseekingbusinessinKazakhstanthat
casewassettledwithnoadmissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplainedinfusionsofcashfrom
accountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:AfterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughlyadecadeagoTrump
hashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfornewinvestments.AsI
notedabove,TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbankswiththeexceptionof
Deutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajorUSpresence.Hehassteadied
andrebuilthisfinancialempirewithaheavyrelianceoncapitalfromRussia.Ataminimum
theTrumporganizationisreceivinglotsofinvestmentcapitalfrompeopleclosetoVladimir
Putin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnectionstoanddependenceon
RussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscoreathome:no,that'snot
reassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'whonowfunctionsas
campaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelastdecadeastopcampaign
andcommunicationsadvisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-RussianUkrainianPrime
MinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-goingcrisisandproxywarin
Ukraine.YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutinally.ManafortisrunningTrump's
campaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarterPage,amanwhoseentire
professionalcareerhasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaandwhohasdeepand
continuingfinancialandemploymenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou'renotfamiliarwithGazprom,
imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywererolledupintoasinglecompanyandit
werepersonallycontrolledbytheUSPresidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenueand
patronage.ThatisGazprom'sroleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisno
exaggerationtosaythatyoucannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromattheveryhighlevelwhich
PagehasbeenwithoutbeingwhollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.Thosetiesalsoallow
PutintoputPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstatecontrolledmediabehind
Trump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutinhassoughttopropup
rightist/nationalistpoliticiansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirectorcovertinfusionsofmoney.
InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-backedpoliciesinothersitissimply
becausetheysowdiscordinWesternalignedstates.Ofcourse,Trumphasrepeatedlypraised
Putin,notonlyintheabstractbutoftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesandpatternsof
governmentwhichhavemostsouredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulofdevelopmentsthattipped
mefromseeingallthisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinesstosomethingmorespecific
andominousabouttherelationshipbetweenPutinandTrump.AsTPM'sTierney
Sneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduringdynamicsofGOPconventions
(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)ismoremainstreamnomineesbattling
conservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardline
ideologicalboxesandthenomineestryingtosoftenmostorallofthoseedges.Thisisone
thingthatmadetheTrumpconventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotally
indifferenttotheplatform.Sopartyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservative
platformsinhistory.NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn'tcare.Withone
bigexception:Trump'steammobilizedthenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingandstrong-
armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraineagainstRussian
militaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(andit'snotworthmuch)Iam
quiteskepticalofmostRepublicanscallforaggressivelyarmingUkrainetoresistRussian
aggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthisfocusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotal
indifferencetoeverythingelseintheplatform-speaksvolumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaorPutin.Itcanjustas
easilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyearsworkinginPutin's
orbitandbeingalignedwithhisthinkingandagenda.Butitiscertainlynocoincidence.Again,
inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetotheplatformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivists
writeitinanywaytheywant,histeamzeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexert
maximumforceanditjusthappenstobetheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsofUS
policy.
AddtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstracknotonlywithPutin's
positionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.AsidefromUkraine,Trump's
suggestionthattheUSandthusNATOmightnotcometothedefenseofNATOmember
statesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionisacaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingandallmannerofother
mysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingonconspiratorialintheir
thinking.IignorethemherebecauseI'vewantedtofocusonunimpeachable,undisputedand
publiclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkandhighlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEOofamajorAmerican
corporationandtherewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump'sdirection,combined
withthismuchsolicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,itwouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.
Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutinisnottheCEOofanAmerican
corporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesaforeignstate,withanincreasinglyhostileposture
towardstheUnitedStatesandasubstantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakesinvolved
infindingout'what'sgoingon'asTrumpmightputitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofcircumstantialevidence
forafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.Evenifyoudrawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancialempireisheavilyleveraged
andhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfromoligarchsandothersourcesofwealth
alignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynotsomethingthatcanbewavedofforignored.
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-putin-weaponized-wikileaks-
influence-election-american-president/130163/?&utm_term=Editorial%20-
HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaksto
InfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
EvidencesuggeststhataRussianintelligencegroupwasthesourceof
themostrecentWikileaksinteldump,whichwasaimedtoinfluence
theU.S.election
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
CloseyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroupbackedbyRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofamajorU.S.political
party.Thegroupstolethousandsofsensitivemessagesandthenpublished
themthroughanobligingthirdpartyinawaythatwasstrategicallytimedto
influencetheUnitedStatespresidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,because
thatswhatjusthappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolenfromtheDemocratic
NationalCommittee.Theyreveal,amongotherthings,thuggishinfighting,
apushbyatopDNCofficialtouseBernieSandersreligiousconvictions
againsthimintheSouth,andattemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.In
otherwords,theyrevealtheWashingtoncampaignmonsterforwhatitis.
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaksdatadump(towhich
numerousotheroutletshavedevotedconsiderableattention)andconsiderthe
source.ConsiderableevidenceshowsthattheWikileaksdumpwasan
orchestratedactbytheRussiangovernment,workingthroughproxies,to
undermineHillaryClintonsPresidentialcampaign.
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonlyrationaletoreleasesuch
datafromtheRussianbulletproofhostwastoempoweronecandidateagainst
another.TheColdWarisaliveandwell,TomKellermann,theCEOof
StrategicCyberVenturestoldDefenseOne.
Receivedailyemailupdates: cybersecuritycompanyCrowdStrike,
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwiththeDNC,
Bethefirsttoreceiveupdates. announcedinablogpostthattwo
separateRussianintelligencegroups
hadgainedaccesstotheDNCnetwork.Onegroup,FANCYBEARorAPT28,
gainedaccessinApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
andAPT29)firstbreachedthenetworkinthesummerof2015.
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29in2014andwas
quicktopointoutaclearKremlinconnection.WesuspecttheRussian
governmentsponsorsthegroupbecauseoftheorganizationsittargetsandthe
dataitsteals.Additionally,APT29appearedtoceaseoperationsonRussian
holidays,andtheirworkhoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,
whichcontainscitiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegrouplookslike
ithassponsorshipfromtheRussiangovernmentdueinlargeparttothelevel
ofsophisticationbehindthegroupsattacks.
ItsthesamegroupthathittheState TheColdWarisaliveandwell
Department,theWhiteHouse, TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
andthecivilianemailoftheJoint
ChiefsofStaff.Thegroupsmodusoperandi(aspearphishingattackthat
uploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstoolonthetargetscomputer)iswell
knowntocyber-securityresearchers.
InhisblogpostontheDNCbreachesCrowdStrikesCTODmitri
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewithbothoftheseactors
attemptingtotargetourcustomersinthepastandknowthemwell.Infact,our
teamconsidersthemsomeofthebestadversariesoutofallthenumerous
nation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terroristgroupsweencounteronadaily
basis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,operationalsecuritysecondtononeandthe
extensiveusageofliving-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemtoeasily
bypassmanysecuritysolutionstheyencounter.
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer2.0claimedtobethe
culpritbehindthebreachandreleasedkeydocumentstobackupthe
claim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
Related:WhattheJointChiefsEmailHackTellsUsAbout
theDNCBreach
Related:TheUkrainianBlackoutandtheFutureofWar
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:theseclaimsdonothing
tolessenourfindingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernmentsinvolvement,
portionsofwhichwehavedocumentedforthepublicandthegreater
securitycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisandreachedthesame
conclusion.ThegroupFidelisundertooktheirowninvestigationandfound
Crowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthemetadataonthe
docsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhisblogpostandfoundliteral
Russiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArsTechnica.Giventhe
evidencecombinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsastrongattributiontoone
oftheRussianintelligenceagencies,@PwnAllTheThingsremarked
toMotherboard.
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchieraiactuallyconversedwith
Guccifer2.0overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimedtobeRomanian,answered
questionsinshortsentencesthatwerefilledwithmistakesaccordingto
severalRomaniannativespeakers,Bicchierifound.
AlargebodyofevidencesuggeststhatGuccifer2.0isasmokescreenthatthe
actualculpritsemployedtohidetheirinvolvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationandinfluenceoperations.
Russianpropagandistshavebeencaughthiringactorstoportrayvictimsof
manufacturedatrocitiesorcrimesfornewsreports(aswasthecasewhen
ViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohavebeenattackedbySyrianrefugeesin
GermanyforRussiasZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting
(asshowninaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovaisrevealed
tobeinadarkenedroomwithexplosionsoundsplayinginthebackground
ratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightisswitchedonduringthe
recording),notesaRANDreportfromearlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedtolegitimizethe
informationdump,whichalsocontainsalargeamountofpersonal
informationrelatedtodemocraticdonorssuchassocialsecurityandcredit
cardnumbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaksdidntperformathoroughanalysis
ofthedocumentsbeforetheyreleasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
ItsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformationsecurityresearcherBruce
SchneiercallsorganizationaldoxingandthatLawfaresNicholasWeaver
callstheweaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priortotheDNCincident,wasthe
June2015thepublicationofseveralsetsofNSArecordsrelatedto
governmentintelligencecollectiontargets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.Thedataitselfwasnot
remarkable,butitdidharmU.S.relationsandmayhave
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaksdoesntseemtocarethattheyare
beingusedasaweaponbyunknownparties,insteadcallingthemselvesa
libraryofmasseducation.Buttherestofusshould,Weaverwrites.
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinusedtogreateffect
lastweek.
Senttime: 07/26/201605:12:34AM
thiscouldgoonforsometime...
To:KyleWilson<[email protected]>
CC:JulianCooper<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin
<[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]>
SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>SiriolHugh-Jones<[email protected]>DG<[email protected]>
AninterestingpiecefromJuliaIoffe-http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/25/is-trump-a-russian-stooge-putin-dnc-wikileaks/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report
OnTuesday,26July2016,10:05,BoboLo<[email protected]>wrote:
Justtobeclear,Ithinkhewouldbeadisasterforallofus-includingRussia!Hewouldbringamercurial'quality'thatevenVVPwould
struggletomanage.
Hmm...soTrumpistheLesserEvil.
SentfrommyiPhone
On26Jul2016,at6:50PM,BoboLo<[email protected]>wrote:
Perhapsparadoxically,IfeelPutinmightactuallyfindHillaryeasiertodealwith-knownquantity,predictablebehavior,
reasonablyclearlinesofengagementandlimitation.Trump,ontheotherhand,couldbeanightmarefortheKremlin-not
justondiscreteissues,butforthesheerchaosanduncertaintyhispresidencywouldbring.
OnTuesday,26July2016,9:42,JulianCooper<[email protected]>wrote:
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-hawks%E2%80%99-election-strategy-pushing-new-cold-war-17113

Julian

To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<[email protected]><[email protected]>
RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeresKlausSegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmerican
President

SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad


TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallya
Thing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,2016,4:15PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainabouttheseemingbromance
betweenDonaldTrumpandRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,but
relatedly,manybelieveTrumpisanadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin's
increasinglyautocraticandilliberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,TrumpappearstohaveadeepfinancialdependenceonRussianmoney
frompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisismatchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousnessto
RussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycomeintoconflictwithUSpolicies
whichgobackdecadesthroughadministrationsofbothparties.Thereisalso
somethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidencesuggesting
Putin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSefforts
toextendsecurityguaranteestocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir
'nearabroad'orextendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnew
stateswhichforcenturieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.This
isn'tamatterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriously
thinkingthroughthepotentialcostsofsuchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,those
countriesarenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeenmadewhich
absolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitments
havenotbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothisquestionor
thesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoneyflowingintoTrump's
coffersandheisconspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicypriorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhasgrown
dramaticallyoverthelastyear,from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustone
yearwhilehisliquidassetshavealsodecreased.Trumphasbeenblackballedbyall
majorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfromRussia,mostof
whichhasovertheyearsbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsand
sub-garchsclosetoVladimirPutin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashington
Post,withonemorselforillustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershavemade
numeroustripstoMoscowinsearchofbusinessopportunities,and
theyhavereliedonRussianinvestorstobuytheirpropertiesaround
theworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotof
ourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,toldarealestateconferencein
2008,accordingtoanaccountpostedonthewebsiteof
eTurboNews,atradepublication.Weseealotofmoneypouringin
fromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,oneof
Trump'slargestrecentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsin
responsetosometypicallyTrumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsbymaking
fraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealthoftheproject.Emergingoutofthat
litigationhoweverwasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfromRussiaand
Kazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthepresenceofa
twiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussiancriminal
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentinTrumpSoHoand
threeotherBayrockprojectsbyanIcelandicfirmpreferredby
wealthyRussiansinfavorwithPresidentVladimirV.Putin,
accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockbyoneofitsformer
executives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,wasidentifiedina
Bayrockinvestorpresentationasastrategicpartner,alongwith
AlexanderMashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedinacorruption
caseinvolvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseekingbusinessin
Kazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithnoadmissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplainedinfusionsofcash
fromaccountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughlyadecadeago
Trumphashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfornew
investments.AsInotedabove,TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks
withtheexceptionofDeutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajor
USpresence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthisfinancialempirewithaheavyreliance
oncapitalfromRussia.AtaminimumtheTrumporganizationisreceivinglotsof
investmentcapitalfrompeopleclosetoVladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnectionstoand
dependenceonRussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscore
athome:no,that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'whonowfunctions
ascampaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelastdecadeas
topcampaignandcommunicationsadvisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-Russian
UkrainianPrimeMinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-
goingcrisisandproxywarinUkraine.YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutin
ally.ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarterPage,aman
whoseentireprofessionalcareerhasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaand
whohasdeepandcontinuingfinancialandemploymenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou're
notfamiliarwithGazprom,imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywere
rolledupintoasinglecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolledbytheUS
Presidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenueandpatronage.ThatisGazprom's
roleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisnoexaggerationtosaythat
youcannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromattheveryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeen
withoutbeingwhollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.ThosetiesalsoallowPutinto
putPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstatecontrolled
mediabehindTrump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutin
hassoughttopropuprightist/nationalistpoliticiansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirect
orcovertinfusionsofmoney.InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-
backedpoliciesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordinWesternaligned
states.Ofcourse,TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedPutin,notonlyintheabstractbut
oftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesandpatternsofgovernmentwhichhavemost
souredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulofdevelopments
thattippedmefromseeingallthisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinessto
somethingmorespecificandominousabouttherelationshipbetweenPutinand
Trump.AsTPM'sTierneySneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduring
dynamicsofGOPconventions(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)is
moremainstreamnomineesbattlingconservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,
withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardlineideologicalboxesandthenominees
tryingtosoftenmostorallofthoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrump
conventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotallyindifferenttotheplatform.So
partyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservativeplatformsinhistory.
NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn'tcare.Withonebig
exception:Trump'steammobilizedthenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingand
strong-armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraine
againstRussianmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(andit's
notworthmuch)IamquiteskepticalofmostRepublicanscallforaggressively
armingUkrainetoresistRussianaggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthis
focusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotalindifferencetoeverythingelseinthe
platform-speaksvolumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaorPutin.Itcan
justaseasilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyears
workinginPutin'sorbitandbeingalignedwithhisthinkingandagenda.Butitis
certainlynocoincidence.Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetothe
platformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitinanywaytheywant,histeam
zeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexertmaximumforceanditjusthappensto
betheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsofUSpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstracknotonlywith
Putin'spositionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.Asidefrom
Ukraine,Trump'ssuggestionthattheUSandthusNATOmightnotcometothe
defenseofNATOmemberstatesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionis
acaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingandallmannerof
othermysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingon
conspiratorialintheirthinking.IignorethemherebecauseI'vewantedtofocuson
unimpeachable,undisputedandpubliclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkand
highlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEOofamajor
AmericancorporationandtherewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump's
direction,combinedwiththismuchsolicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,it
wouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutin
isnottheCEOofanAmericancorporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesaforeign
state,withanincreasinglyhostileposturetowardstheUnitedStatesanda
substantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakesinvolvedinfindingout'what's
goingon'asTrumpmightputitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofcircumstantial
evidenceforafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-tacitalliance
betweenthetwomen.Evenifyoudrawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancial
empireisheavilyleveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfrom
oligarchsandothersourcesofwealthalignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynot
HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaks
toInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroupbackedby
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofa
majorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroupstolethousandsofsensitive
messagesandthenpublishedthemthroughanobligingthirdpartyin
awaythatwasstrategicallytimedtoinfluencetheUnitedStates
presidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,becausethatswhat
justhappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolenfromthe
DemocraticNationalCommittee.Theyreveal,amongother
things,thuggishinfighting,apushbyatopDNCofficialtouse
BernieSandersreligiousconvictionsagainsthimintheSouth,and
attemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.Inotherwords,theyreveal
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaksdatadump
(towhichnumerousotheroutletshavedevotedconsiderable
attention)andconsiderthesource.Considerableevidenceshows
thattheWikileaksdumpwasanorchestratedactbytheRussian
government,workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillaryClintons
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonlyrationaleto
releasesuchdatafromtheRussianbulletproofhostwasto
empoweronecandidateagainstanother.TheColdWarisaliveand
well,TomKellermann,theCEOofStrategicCyberVentures
toldDefenseOne.
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwiththeDNC,announced
inablogpostthattwoseparateRussian
theDNCnetwork.Onegroup,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gained
accessinApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29in2014
andwasquicktopointoutaclearKremlinconnection.Wesuspect
theRussiangovernmentsponsorsthegroupbecauseofthe
organizationsittargetsandthedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29
appearedtoceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,andtheirwork
hoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,whichcontains
citiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegroup
lookslikeithassponsorshipfromtheRussiangovernmentduein
largeparttothelevelofsophisticationbehindthegroupsattacks.
Itsthesamegroupthathit TheColdWarisaliveandwell
theStateDepartment,the TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
WhiteHouse,andthecivilian
emailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.Thegroupsmodusoperandi(a
spearphishingattackthatuploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstool
onthetargetscomputer)iswellknowntocyber-
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewithbothofthese
actorsattemptingtotargetourcustomersinthepastandknowthem
well.Infact,ourteamconsidersthemsomeofthebestadversaries
outofallthenumerousnation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terrorist
groupsweencounteronadailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandtheextensiveusageof
living-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemtoeasilybypassmany
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer2.0claimedto
betheculpritbehindthebreachandreleasedkeydocumentsto
backuptheclaim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
theDNCBreach
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:theseclaimsdo
nothingtolessenourfindingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernments
involvement,portionsofwhichwehavedocumentedforthepublic
andthegreatersecuritycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisandreachedthe
sameconclusion.ThegroupFidelisundertooktheirown
investigationandfoundCrowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthemetadata
onthedocsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhisblogpostandfound
literalRussiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArsTechnica.
Giventheevidencecombinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsa
strongattributiontooneoftheRussianintelligenceagencies,
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchieraiactually
conversedwithGuccifer2.0overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimed
tobeRomanian,answeredquestionsinshortsentencesthatwere
filledwithmistakesaccordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
smokescreenthattheactualculpritsemployedtohidetheir
involvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationandinfluence
operations.Russianpropagandistshavebeencaughthiringactors
toportrayvictimsofmanufacturedatrocitiesorcrimesfornews
reports(aswasthecasewhenViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohave
beenattackedbySyrianrefugeesinGermanyforRussias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting(asshown
inaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovaisrevealed
tobeinadarkenedroomwithexplosionsoundsplayinginthe
backgroundratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightis
switchedonduringtherecording),notesaRANDreportfrom
earlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedtolegitimize
theinformationdump,whichalsocontainsalargeamountof
personalinformationrelatedtodemocraticdonorssuchassocial
securityandcreditcardnumbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaks
didntperformathoroughanalysisofthedocumentsbeforethey
releasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformationsecurity
researcherBruceSchneiercallsorganizationaldoxingandthat
LawfaresNicholasWeavercallstheweaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priortotheDNCincident,
wastheJune2015thepublicationofseveralsetsofNSArecords
relatedtogovernmentintelligencecollectiontargets
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaksdoesntseemtocarethat
theyarebeingusedasaweaponbyunknownparties,instead
callingthemselvesalibraryofmasseducation.Buttherestofus
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinusedtogreat
effectlastweek.
Senttime: 07/26/201612:12:41PM
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-26.WELCOMETOTHEWORLDOF'UNRESTRICTEDWARFARE'][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:WP(2),
Subject: RFE/RL[AllItemsAre'MustNote'].[JDDD]"WhyPutinHatesHillary"&7morestories.[VRT]IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalisto
DiscreditAmerican
Sent:Tuesday,July26,201611:11AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-26.WELCOMETOTHEWORLDOF'UNRESTRICTEDWARFARE'][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:WP(2),
RFE/RL[AllItemsAre'MustNote'].[JDDD]"WhyPutinHatesHillary"&7morestories.[VRT]IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalisto
DiscreditAmerican...
From:Deychak,Orest<[email protected]>
Subject:Ukraine:WP(2),RFE/RL[ED:ALLITEMSARE"MUSTNOTE"]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<[email protected]>
TheWashingtonPost/AP
ControversialreligiousprocessionbarredfromenteringKiev
ByAssociatedPress
July26at8:46AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/controversial-religious-procession-barred-from-entering-
kiev/2016/07/26/31860f78-5317-11e6-b652-315ae5d4d4dd_story.html
MOSCOWUkrainesinteriorministeronTuesdaybenttothepressureofnationalistsandorderedpolicetobaramajor
religiousprocessionfromenteringthecapital,Kiev,afterpolicefoundammunitionplantedalongtheplannedroute.
UkrainiannationalistshavepreviouslythreatenedtoattacktheprocessionifitentersKiev.
ThousandshavebeenmarchingfrommonasteriesinthecountryseastandwestsincethebeginningofJulyintheHolyCross
processionledbytheUkrainianbranchoftheRussianOrthodoxChurch.ThetwomarchesweretomeetupinKievlaterthis
weektomarktheadoptionofChristianitybywhatisnowRussiaandUkraineinthe10thcentury.
OrthodoxChristiansinUkraineadheretotheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchandtheUkrainianbranchoftheRussianOrthodox
Church.

PolicedecidedtostoptheprocessionfromcomingintoKievbecauseofsecurityconcerns,InteriorMinisterArsenAvakovsaid.
Mockminesandactuallivegrenadesplantedalongtheplannedroutegiveusnoreasontodoubtthattheriskofthreatsand
provocationsisreal,Avakovsaid.Securityofthecitizensismoreimportantthanreligiousrites.
UkrainiannationalistsonMondayblockedtheprocessionfromenteringKiev,callingthemarchersagentsofMoscowandpelting
thebelieverswhowerecarryingOrthodoxiconsandcrosseswitheggs.Thenationalistsclaimedthattheprocessionisaruseto
sowdiscordinUkraine.
TheprocessionwasreportedtohavetakenadetourbutstillheadedontoKiev.
RelationsbetweenRussiaandUkraine,whichsharelinguisticandculturaltiesdatingbackhundredsofyears,souredafterRussia
threwitssupportbehindrebelseparatistsfightinggovernmenttroopsineasternUkraine.Thisconflicthasclaimedmorethan9,400
livesanddisplacedmorethan1millionpeoplesinceitbeganin2014.
TheWashingtonPost
PutinssuspectedmeddlinginaU.S.electionwouldbeadisturbingfirst
ByEditorialBoard
ThePost'sView
July25at9:14PM(LeadeditorialinJuly26printedition)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/putins-suspected-meddling-in-a-us-election-would-be-a-disturbing-
first/2016/07/25/2e84c374-5280-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html
CREDITFORtheinternecinefurorthatdisruptedtheDemocraticPartyontheeveofitsconventionshouldgotoVladimirPutin.
AsThePosthasreported,cybersecurityexpertssayRussianintelligenceoperativeswerelikelyresponsibleforthehackingofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteescomputernetwork,aswellasforleakingtotheMoscow-friendlyWikiLeakswebsitesome
20,000emails.ThetroveappearedonlineFriday,justintimetocreatediscordbetweensupportersofHillaryClintonandBernie
SandersastheyheadedtoPhiladelphia.Tonoonessurprise,theemailsshowedthatDNCstaffersopposedtheattemptofthe
socialistMr.Sanderstotakeovertheparty.ChairDebbieWassermanSchultzwasforcedtoannounceherresignation,andas
RussialikelyintendedMs.Clintonscampaigntookahit.
Mr.PutinsregimehastriedtointerveneintheinternalpoliticsofnumerousEuropeancountries,fromUkraineandMoldovato
ItalyandFrance.ButtheevidentattempttomeddleinaU.S.presidentialelectionisafirst.Thatmayreflectthereckless
aggressivenessMr.Putinhasembracedinforeignaffairssincereturningtothepresidencyin2012.ItlikelyalsorevealsMoscows
judgmentthatitstandstoreapageopoliticalwindfallifDonaldTrumpiselectedpresident.

ThepotentialbenefitsMr.TrumpofferstoMr.Putinhavebeenclearlyandrepeatedlyspelledoutbythecandidatehimself.
RussiasmostcherishedgoalistoweakenordestroyNATOMr.Trumphascalledtheallianceobsolete.Mr.Putindreamsof
reestablishingdominionoverthepiecesoftheSovietUnionMr.TrumphassaidthathemightnotdefendformerSovietrepublics
Latvia,EstoniaandLithuaniaifRussiainvaded,despitetheirNATOmembership.Mr.PutinwantstheUnitedStatestotreatRussia
asanequalsuperpowerwithitsownacknowledgedsphereofinfluenceMr.TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedMr.Putinand
promisedtoworkwithhim.
Thispro-KremlintiltisunprecedentedintheRepublicanPartyandwouldrepresentaradicalanddangerousshiftinU.S.policy.
Whethertherearenon-politicalreasonsforitisafairquestion.Mr.TrumpisknowntohavesoughtbusinessrepeatedlyinRussia,
andhissonDonaldJr.hassaidthatRussiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotofourassets.Because
Mr.Trumpwillnotreleasehistaxreturnsorbusinessrecords,thefullextentofhisfinancialinterestsinRussiaremainsunclear.But
atleastthreeofMr.TrumpstopadvisershaveprofitedfrombusinessandpoliticalconnectionsinRussia,includingcampaign
managerPaulManafort,whoworkedfortheformerpro-PutinpresidentofUkraineaswellasseveralRussianoligarchs.
OneofthefewchangesintheGOPplatformpushedbytheTrumpcampaignwastheweakeningoflanguagecallingforsupportfor
Ukrainescurrentdemocraticgovernment,whichreplacedthemanMr.ManafortrepresentedandwhichMr.Putinisattempting
todestroy.TheDNCemailsappearedonWikiLeaksthenextweek.
SomepoliticalanalystsdoubtthatKGB-styletrickswillultimatelyswayvotesinawide-openU.S.electionespeciallyas
Moscowhasbarelybotheredtodisguiseitsauthorship.YetthefactthatMr.Putinistryingisremarkableanddisturbingasisthe
motivationMr.Trumphasgivenhimtomeddle.
RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/daily-vertical-deadly-donbas-forgotten-war/27880993.html
July26,2016
TheDailyVertical:Ukraine'sForgottenWar(Transcript)
BrianWhitmore
Don'tlooknowbutit'sbeenonehellofadeadlymonthintheDonbas.
Iknowit'seasytomissgivenalltheexcitementelsewhere,butaccordingtostatisticsreleasedbytheUnitedNationslastweek,27
Ukrainiansoldierswerekilledand123woundedinthefirstpartofJulyalone.
Yesterday,threeUkrainianservicemenwerekilledandthreemorewerewounded.
Sixmorewerekilledoverone24-hourperiodthispastweekend.
Thereportsofthisslowdripofdeathhavebeencomingineverysingleday,eachlookingliketheonebeforeit.
Threekilledand16woundedoneday.Onekilledandfivewoundedanother.Threekilledand13woundedonanother.Andseven
killedand14woundedonyetanother.
Itbecomesablur.
Butwhenyouadditallup,youneedtogobacknearlyayeartofindanothermonthasdeadlyasJuly--andthemonthisn'teven
overyet.
Butdespiteallthedeathanddestruction,almostnobodyisnoticing.
WATCH:Today'sDailyVertical
ThewarintheDonbashasbecometheforgottenwar.
Ithasn'tbecomeafrozenconflict,likeinAbkhaziaandSouthOssetia,asmanyhadpredicted.
Instead,it'sasimmeringconflictthathasslippedbelowtheworld'sradar.
It'safesteringsoreontheUkrainianbodypolitic,onethatissappingthecountry'senergy,wearingdownitsresolve,andkillingits
citizens.
Andinthissense,theforgottenwarintheDonbasisservingthepurposethatRussiaintendedittoserve.
KeeptellingmewhatyouthinkonThePowerVertical'sTwitterfeedandonourFacebookpage.
Subject:MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
BehindtheallegationsofaRussianhackoftheDNCistheKremlinleadersFURYatClintonfor
challengingthefairnessofRussianelections[in2011].
And:StevenLeeMyersandNeilMacFarquhar,ToDemocrats,EmailHACKsuggestsTRUMPhasnew
supporter:PUTIN,nytimes.com,7/26
NowthequestionhasemergedintheUnitedStateselectioncampaignwhetherMr.Putinhasopted
directlyorcovertlytothrowRussiassupportbehindMr.Trump.Theconclusionbycybersecurity
expertsthatRussianintelligenceagenciesbreachedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandreleased
thousandsofemailsontheeveofthepartysconventionpromptedaccusationsfromDemocratsand
someRepublicansthatMr.TrumpwasakindofSiberiancandidate,bolsteredfromabroadto
underminethenation.
And:MichaelMcFAUL,Mr.Trump,NATOisanALLIANCE,notaprotectionracket,op-ed,
Theframingofalliancerelationshipsasprotection-racketcontractsmissesthestrategicvalueofalliesto
theUnitedStates.
And:ThomasRID[cyber-attackspecialistatKingsCollege,London],AllsignsPOINTtoRussia
beingbehindtheDNChack,[thishighlydetailedarticleisrecommendedbymathematicianAndrei
PIONTKOVSKII],http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
Themetadataintheleakeddocumentsareperhapsmostrevealing:onedumpeddocumentwasmodified
usingRussianlanguagesettingsThemetadatashowthattheRussianoperatorsapparentlyeditedsome
documents,andinsomecasescreatednewdocumentsNotreactingpoliticallytotheDNChackis
settingadangerousprecedent.Aforeignagency,exploitingWikileaksandacutthroatmediamarketplace,
appearstobecarefullyplanningandtimingahigh-stakespoliticalcampaignintheUnitedStatesthat
couldescalatenextweek,nextfall,ornexttime.Trump,ironically,isrightthesystemisactuallyrigged
[byRussia].
And:PutintoSHUNOlympicopeningceremony[toavoidbeingshunned?],themsocowtimes.com,
7/25
And:RussianOlympicTeamcouldbereducedto40athletes[areductioninsizeof
90%],themoscowtimes.com,7/26
And:TheFSBiscarryingoutsearchesatthedirectoroftheRussianFederalCustoms
Service:http://graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.253352.html

From:VRT
Subject:IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalistoDiscreditAmericanPoliticalSystem
Interestingpiece,buttheuseofCarnegie'sRumerandWeissasbackgroundisadamper[EDADD:Andtheconstantrefrain
thatPutinissimplydefendinghimself/pushingbackagainstperceivedWesternaggression/expansionis"gettingreally
old"]
IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalistoDiscredit
AmericanPoliticalSystem
Tuesday,26Jul201609:26AM
IftheRussiangovernmentisbehindthetheftandreleaseofembarrassingemailsfromtheDemocraticParty,asU.S.officialshave
suggested,itmayreflectlessaloveofDonaldTrumporenmityforHillaryClintonthanadesiretodiscredittheU.S.political
system.
AU.S.officialwhoistakingpartintheinvestigationsaidthatintelligencecollectedonthehackingofDemocraticNational
Committee(DNC)emailsreleasedbyWikileaksonFriday"indicatesbeyondareasonabledoubtthatitoriginatedinRussia."
ThetimingontheeveofClinton'sformalnominationthisweekfortheNov.8presidentialelectionhasraisedquestionsabout
whetherRussiamayhavebeentryingtohurther,tohelpTrump,herRepublicanrival,ortofanpopulistsentimentagainst
establishmentpoliticiansasithassoughttodoacrossEuropeinrecentyears.
"CertainlyRussiahasbecomeamasteratmanipulatinginformationfortheirstrategicgoals:Witnesstheinformationbubblethey
havecreatedfortheirthreateningbehaviorintheCrimea,theUkraineandelsewhere,"saidformerCIAandNationalSecurity
AgencydirectorMichaelHayden."Asteplikethis,however,wouldbereallyuppingtheirgame."
TheemailsshowedthatDNCofficialsexploredwaystoundermineU.S.SenatorBernieSanders'presidentialcampaignagainst
ClintonandraisedquestionsaboutwhetherSanders,whoisJewish,wasreallyanatheist.
ThedisclosuresconfirmedSanders'frequentchargethatthepartyplayedfavoritesagainsthimandcloudedapartyconvention
Clintonhopedwouldsignalunity,notdivision.
PUTIN'SCOUNTERPUNCH?
TwoU.S.intelligenceofficials,speakingonconditionofanonymity,saidthehackcouldbepartofabroadercampaignbyRussian
PresidentVladimirPutintopushbackagainstwhathethinksisaneffortbytheEuropeanUnionandNATO,amilitaryallianceof
EuropeanandNorthAmericandemocracies,toencircleandweakenRussia.
Oneoftheofficialscalledthefear"ahangover"fromPutin'sserviceintheKGB,theSovietintelligenceagency.
"Timeandagain,we'reseeingRussiapushbackatwhatPutinconsidersRussia'smortalenemies,"saidtheotherofficial."He's
beenactivelyattackingtheU.S.-backedrebelsinSyria,buzzingshipsandplanesintheBlackSeaandtheBaltic,nottomention
invadingUkraineandseizingCrimea.Thisfitsthepattern."
DespiteClinton'sshort-livedattemptassecretaryofstateto"reset"U.S.-RussianrelationsafterU.S.PresidentBarackObama
tookofficein2009,theleakedemailscoulddamageacandidatetheKremlinmayconsiderhostileandbenefitheropponent,who
hasbeenfriendlier.
PutinaccusedClintonofstirringupprotestsagainsthisruleafteraDecember2011Russianparliamentaryelectionthatwasmarred
byallegationsoffraud,sayingshehadencouraged"mercenary"Kremlinfoesbycriticizingthevote.
"Shesetthetoneforsomeoppositionactivists,gavethemasignal,theyheardthissignalandstartedactivework,"Putintold
supporters.
AskedaboutclaimsthatRussianintelligencehadhackedtheDNCtoobtaintheemails,WikileaksfounderJulianAssangetold
NBCNews'RichardEngel"thereisnoproofofthatwhatsoever"andsaid"thisisadiversion"pushedbytheClintoncampaign.
TRUMP'SWARMERTONE
AnalystssaidRussia'sgoalmaybemuchbroaderthansimplymeddlingintheU.S.presidentialelection.
"It'sagrossoversimplificationtosuggestthattheRussiangovernmentisall-inforDonaldTrump,"saidAndrewWeiss,aRussia
analystattheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,aWashington-basedthinktank.
"It'sinRussia'sinterest...toportraytheUnitedStatesasrivenwithpopulardiscontent,xenophobiaandhigh-levelpolitical
corruption,"Weisssaid."ItfitsnicelywiththeKremlin'sstandardnarrative...thattheWhiteHouserushestocriticizeothers
withoutgettingitsownhouseinorder."
TheRussianleadermaywellhavebeenencouragedbyTrump'scommentstoTheNewYorkTimeslastweekthatwithhiminthe
WhiteHouse,NATOmightnotautomaticallydefendtheBalticstatesthatwereonceapartoftheRussian-ledSovietUnion.
DespitepublicTrump-Putinexchangesofpraise,EugeneRumer,aformernationalintelligenceofficerforRussiaandEurasia,
warnedagainstreachinganyquickconclusionsaboutPutin'sviewofTrump.
"Wecansaywithsomedegreeofconfidencethattheydon'tlikeHillary,"Rumersaid."It'slessclearthattheylikeTrump,although
overtheyearstheRussianshavesaidtheyprefertodealwiththeRepublicans-(that)theyarekindofhard-linebuttheycando
deals."
AdiplomatwithexperienceworkingonRussiasaidtheKremlinalsomightbebettingthatClintonwillwinandissendingashot
acrossherbow.
"Messingwithherlikethisnowputsheronnoticethatthesearetoughguysthatshe'sgottobereallycarefulwith,"saidthe
diplomat,whospokeonconditionofanonymity.
AU.S.intelligenceofficialwhoisreviewingtheemailsaspartoftheinvestigationintotheiroriginsaidthatthoseemailsdescribing
theprivilegestheDemocraticNationalCommitteeshowersonitswealthiestdonorsbolstertheRussiannarrativeofanAmerican
politicalsystemriggedbythewealthyandriddledwithcorruption.
"InadditiontocounteringtheU.S.narrativethattheRussiangovernmentisacorruptoligarchy,leakingtheseemailsfitsrather
convenientlywithTrump'schargesaboutariggedsystemand'crookedHillary',"saidtheofficial,whospokeonconditionof
anonymitytodiscussdomesticpolitics.
2016Thomson/Reuters.Allrightsreserved.
BreakingNewsatNewsmax.comhttp://www.newsmax.com/Headline/russia-email-hack-
dnc/2016/07/25/id/740424/#ixzz4FWUCknjp
[EDPStoAlltheMaterialFoundAbove:
RealityEverywhereSeemALittleOutofSynch???MattersSeemtoReflect'BizarroWorld'(forthoseof
uswhorememberSupermancomicsofold)???
Well,WelcometoPRC/RU's"UnrestrictedWarfare"(theweaponizationofallaspectsoflife)--IE--feels
likeWWIIIin'slowmotion'
UkrainehasbeeninthemiddleofthatUWmessfortwoyears..withpunditssomewhatinadequately
callingit'hybridwarfare'!!!]
[ADDITIONALNEWSBELOW..THEPASSINGOFANACADEMICICON/FROMWD&VK]
Subject:ObituraryProf.OrestSubtelny
InCelebrationof
ORESTSUBTELNY
May17,1941-July24,2016
P
PassedawaypeacefullyonJuly24,2016,aftersuccumbingtocanceranddementia.BorninKrakow,occupiedPoland,onMay17,1941,
OrestcametotheUnitedStateswithhisparentsasarefugeein1949.InhisnewhometownofPhiladelphiaheattendedtherenowned
CentralHighSchoolandwasactiveinPlast,theUkrainianScoutingorganization,wherehemademanylifelongfriendships,especiallyin
hisfraternityBurlaky.AftergraduatingfromTempleUniversitywithaBAin1965andfromtheUniversityofNorthCarolina-ChapelHill
withanMAin1967,hecompletedhisPhDatHarvardUniversityin1973inHistoryandMiddleEasternStudies.Histhesis,entitled
UnwillingAllies:TheRelationsofHetmanPylypOrlykwiththeOttomanPorteandtheCrimeanKhanate,wasthefirstdoctorateinthe
newly-formedUkrainianStudiesProgramatHarvard.WhileatHarvardhemethiswife,Maria,andafterseveralmemorableyearsas
AssistantandthenAssociateProfessoratHamiltonCollegeinClinton,NY,in1982hemovedtoYorkUniversityinTorontowherehewas
ProfessorofHistoryandPoliticalScienceuntilhisretirementin2015.Anavidsoccerfan,heplayedfortheAll-AmericanTeamincollege
andlaterwiththeNorwoodKickersinBoston.
DuringhisacademiccareerheauthoredsixbooksonEastEuropeanandUkrainianhistory,includingTheMazepists:UkrainianSeparatism
inthe18thCenturyandDominationofEasternEurope:NativeNobilitiesandForeignAbsolutism,andatotalof55articlesandbook
chapters.DuringthelastyearsofhiscareerhewasworkingonahistoryofthePlastUkrainianScoutingmovement.Hewaseditorofthe
journalNationalitiesPapersandanorganizerofmanyinternationalscholarlyconferences.From1998to2012hewasadirectorof
CanadianInternationalDevelopmentAgency(CIDA)projectsinUkraine.
Hismostimportantscholarlycontributionwashisbook,Ukraine:AHistory,whichwaspublishedbytheUniversityofTorontoPressin
1988,shortlybeforeUkrainesindependence.Thebookgavethecountryanauthoritativehistoryduringitsformativeyears.Ithasbeen
publishedinfoureditionsandtranslatedintonumerouslanguages.ItwillremainhislastinglegacytoUkraineandUkrainians.
Forhisscholarlyandprofessionalcontributions,hewaspresentedwiththeOrderofMeritbytheGovernmentofUkrainein2001.Hewas
namedaForeignMemberoftheUkrainianAcademyofSciencesandawardedanHonoraryDoctoratebytheDiplomaticAcademyof
Ukraine.HewasalsoawardedtheShevchenkoMedalbytheUkrainianCanadianCongressforhisoutstandingcontributionstothe
developmentoftheUkrainianCanadiancommunityinthecategoryofEducation.
Heissurvivedbyhiswife,Prof.MariaSubtelnyson,Dr.AlexanderSubtelnyofCambridge,MAsister,Dr.OksanaIsajiw(Irenaeus)of
Newton,NJandbymanyotherfamilymembersinCanada,theUS,andUkraine.Heartfeltthanksareextendedtothosestalwartfriends
whowereasupportduringtryingtimestohisbrother-in-law,Dr.GeorgeLuczkiw,whosteppedinatcrucialmomentstohisphysicians,
Drs.ZenonPahuta,MartinChepesiuk,SandraBlack,andDavidBitontiandtothecaringstaffofTorontoWesternHospital,HumberRiver
Hospital,andtheUkrainianCanadianCareCentre.VisitationatTurner&Porter,YorkeChapel,2357BloorSt.W.,Toronto,onThursday,
July28,24pmand69pm.Panakhydaat7:30pm.FuneralmassonFriday,July29at10amatSt.DemetriusUkrainianCatholic
Church,135LaRoseAve.,followedbyintermentatParkLawnCemetery.FriendsareinvitedtojointhefamilyataCelebrationofLife
receptionattheOldMillRestaurant,21OldMillRd.,immediatelythereafter.
Forthosewhowish,donationsmaybemadetoPlastUkrainianScoutingOrganization,theUkrainianCanadianCareCentre,ortheHurvitz
BrainSciencesCentreatSunnybrookHospital.
http://www.canadahelps.org/en/charities/plast-ukrainian-youth-association-of-canada1978-associatio/
http://stdemetrius.ca/donate/index.php
http://sunnybrook.ca/foundation/brain/
From:ValentinaKuryliw<[email protected]>
Subject:HistorianOrestSubtelny,authorofUkraine:AHistory,passesaway/
To:ZaryckyWalter<[email protected]>,RudVictor<[email protected]>,MaddenCheryl<[email protected]>
Cc:MotylAlexander<[email protected]>,WolowynaOleh<[email protected]>
FYI
ValentinaKuryliw
[email protected]
[email protected]
ChairNationalHolodomorEducationCommittee,UCC
DirectorofEducation
HolodomorResearchandEducationConsortium,CIUS,
UniversityofAlberta
47WestroyalRd.
Toronto,Ontario,M9P2C4
416-242-5361
HistorianOrestSubtelny,authorofUkraine:AHistory,passesaway/frommartadyczoksTweet

From: RobertOtto<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/26/201605:00:25AM
To: ChrisBort<[email protected]>
Subject: APT28
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-dismantling-of-dnc-is-clear-attack-by-putin-on-clinton/
Senttime: 07/26/201604:54:27AM
To:KyleWilson<[email protected]>
CC:JulianCooper<[email protected]>RobertHorvath<[email protected]>carolinavendilpallin
<[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]><[email protected]>
SilvanaMalle<[email protected]>SiriolHugh-Jones<[email protected]>DG<[email protected]>BoboLo
<[email protected]>
Justtobeclear,Ithinkhewouldbeadisasterforallofus-includingRussia!Hewouldbringamercurial'quality'thatevenVVPwould
struggletomanage.
Hmm...soTrumpistheLesserEvil.
SentfrommyiPhone
On26Jul2016,at6:50PM,BoboLo<[email protected]>wrote:
Perhapsparadoxically,IfeelPutinmightactuallyfindHillaryeasiertodealwith-knownquantity,predictablebehavior,
reasonablyclearlinesofengagementandlimitation.Trump,ontheotherhand,couldbeanightmarefortheKremlin-not
justondiscreteissues,butforthesheerchaosanduncertaintyhispresidencywouldbring.
OnTuesday,26July2016,9:42,JulianCooper<[email protected]>wrote:
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-hawks%E2%80%99-election-strategy-pushing-new-cold-war-17113

Julian

To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<[email protected]><[email protected]>
RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeresKlausSegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmerican
President

SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad


TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallya
Thing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,2016,4:15PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainabouttheseemingbromance
betweenDonaldTrumpandRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,but
relatedly,manybelieveTrumpisanadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin's
increasinglyautocraticandilliberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,TrumpappearstohaveadeepfinancialdependenceonRussianmoney
frompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisismatchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousnessto
RussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycomeintoconflictwithUSpolicies
whichgobackdecadesthroughadministrationsofbothparties.Thereisalso
somethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidencesuggesting
Putin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSefforts
toextendsecurityguaranteestocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir
'nearabroad'orextendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnew
stateswhichforcenturieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.This
isn'tamatterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriously
thinkingthroughthepotentialcostsofsuchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,those
countriesarenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeenmadewhich
absolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitments
havenotbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothisquestionor
thesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoneyflowingintoTrump's
coffersandheisconspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicypriorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhasgrown
dramaticallyoverthelastyear,from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustone
yearwhilehisliquidassetshavealsodecreased.Trumphasbeenblackballedbyall
majorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfromRussia,mostof
whichhasovertheyearsbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsand
sub-garchsclosetoVladimirPutin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashington
Post,withonemorselforillustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershavemade
numeroustripstoMoscowinsearchofbusinessopportunities,and
theyhavereliedonRussianinvestorstobuytheirpropertiesaround
theworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotof
ourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,toldarealestateconferencein
2008,accordingtoanaccountpostedonthewebsiteof
eTurboNews,atradepublication.Weseealotofmoneypouringin
fromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,oneof
Trump'slargestrecentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsin
responsetosometypicallyTrumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsbymaking
fraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealthoftheproject.Emergingoutofthat
litigationhoweverwasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfromRussiaand
Kazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthepresenceofa
twiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussiancriminal
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentinTrumpSoHoand
threeotherBayrockprojectsbyanIcelandicfirmpreferredby
wealthyRussiansinfavorwithPresidentVladimirV.Putin,
accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockbyoneofitsformer
executives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,wasidentifiedina
Bayrockinvestorpresentationasastrategicpartner,alongwith
AlexanderMashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedinacorruption
caseinvolvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseekingbusinessin
Kazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithnoadmissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplainedinfusionsofcash
fromaccountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughlyadecadeago
Trumphashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfornew
investments.AsInotedabove,TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks
withtheexceptionofDeutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajor
USpresence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthisfinancialempirewithaheavyreliance
oncapitalfromRussia.AtaminimumtheTrumporganizationisreceivinglotsof
investmentcapitalfrompeopleclosetoVladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnectionstoand
dependenceonRussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscore
athome:no,that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'whonowfunctions
ascampaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelastdecadeas
topcampaignandcommunicationsadvisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-Russian
UkrainianPrimeMinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-
goingcrisisandproxywarinUkraine.YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutin
ally.ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarterPage,aman
whoseentireprofessionalcareerhasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaand
whohasdeepandcontinuingfinancialandemploymenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou're
notfamiliarwithGazprom,imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywere
rolledupintoasinglecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolledbytheUS
Presidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenueandpatronage.ThatisGazprom's
roleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisnoexaggerationtosaythat
youcannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromattheveryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeen
withoutbeingwhollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.ThosetiesalsoallowPutinto
putPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstatecontrolled
mediabehindTrump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutin
hassoughttopropuprightist/nationalistpoliticiansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirect
orcovertinfusionsofmoney.InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-
backedpoliciesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordinWesternaligned
states.Ofcourse,TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedPutin,notonlyintheabstractbut
oftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesandpatternsofgovernmentwhichhavemost
souredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulofdevelopments
thattippedmefromseeingallthisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinessto
somethingmorespecificandominousabouttherelationshipbetweenPutinand
Trump.AsTPM'sTierneySneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduring
dynamicsofGOPconventions(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)is
moremainstreamnomineesbattlingconservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,
withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardlineideologicalboxesandthenominees
tryingtosoftenmostorallofthoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrump
conventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotallyindifferenttotheplatform.So
partyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservativeplatformsinhistory.
NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn'tcare.Withonebig
exception:Trump'steammobilizedthenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingand
strong-armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraine
againstRussianmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(andit's
notworthmuch)IamquiteskepticalofmostRepublicanscallforaggressively
armingUkrainetoresistRussianaggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthis
focusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotalindifferencetoeverythingelseinthe
platform-speaksvolumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaorPutin.Itcan
justaseasilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyears
workinginPutin'sorbitandbeingalignedwithhisthinkingandagenda.Butitis
certainlynocoincidence.Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetothe
platformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitinanywaytheywant,histeam
zeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexertmaximumforceanditjusthappensto
betheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsofUSpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstracknotonlywith
Putin'spositionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.Asidefrom
Ukraine,Trump'ssuggestionthattheUSandthusNATOmightnotcometothe
defenseofNATOmemberstatesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionis
acaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingandallmannerof
othermysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingon
conspiratorialintheirthinking.IignorethemherebecauseI'vewantedtofocuson
unimpeachable,undisputedandpubliclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkand
highlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEOofamajor
AmericancorporationandtherewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump's
direction,combinedwiththismuchsolicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,it
wouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutin
isnottheCEOofanAmericancorporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesaforeign
state,withanincreasinglyhostileposturetowardstheUnitedStatesanda
substantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakesinvolvedinfindingout'what's
goingon'asTrumpmightputitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofcircumstantial
evidenceforafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-tacitalliance
betweenthetwomen.Evenifyoudrawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancial
empireisheavilyleveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfrom
oligarchsandothersourcesofwealthalignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynot
HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaks
toInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroupbackedby
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofa
majorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroupstolethousandsofsensitive
messagesandthenpublishedthemthroughanobligingthirdpartyin
awaythatwasstrategicallytimedtoinfluencetheUnitedStates
presidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,becausethatswhat
justhappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolenfromthe
DemocraticNationalCommittee.Theyreveal,amongother
things,thuggishinfighting,apushbyatopDNCofficialtouse
BernieSandersreligiousconvictionsagainsthimintheSouth,and
attemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.Inotherwords,theyreveal
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaksdatadump
(towhichnumerousotheroutletshavedevotedconsiderable
attention)andconsiderthesource.Considerableevidenceshows
thattheWikileaksdumpwasanorchestratedactbytheRussian
government,workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillaryClintons
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonlyrationaleto
releasesuchdatafromtheRussianbulletproofhostwasto
empoweronecandidateagainstanother.TheColdWarisaliveand
well,TomKellermann,theCEOofStrategicCyberVentures
toldDefenseOne.
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwiththeDNC,announced
inablogpostthattwoseparateRussian
theDNCnetwork.Onegroup,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gained
accessinApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29in2014
andwasquicktopointoutaclearKremlinconnection.Wesuspect
theRussiangovernmentsponsorsthegroupbecauseofthe
organizationsittargetsandthedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29
appearedtoceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,andtheirwork
hoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,whichcontains
citiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegroup
lookslikeithassponsorshipfromtheRussiangovernmentduein
largeparttothelevelofsophisticationbehindthegroupsattacks.
Itsthesamegroupthathit TheColdWarisaliveandwell
theStateDepartment,the TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
WhiteHouse,andthecivilian
emailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.Thegroupsmodusoperandi(a
spearphishingattackthatuploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstool
onthetargetscomputer)iswellknowntocyber-
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewithbothofthese
actorsattemptingtotargetourcustomersinthepastandknowthem
well.Infact,ourteamconsidersthemsomeofthebestadversaries
outofallthenumerousnation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terrorist
groupsweencounteronadailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandtheextensiveusageof
living-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemtoeasilybypassmany
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer2.0claimedto
betheculpritbehindthebreachandreleasedkeydocumentsto
backuptheclaim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
theDNCBreach
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:theseclaimsdo
nothingtolessenourfindingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernments
involvement,portionsofwhichwehavedocumentedforthepublic
andthegreatersecuritycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisandreachedthe
sameconclusion.ThegroupFidelisundertooktheirown
investigationandfoundCrowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthemetadata
onthedocsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhisblogpostandfound
literalRussiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArsTechnica.
Giventheevidencecombinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsa
strongattributiontooneoftheRussianintelligenceagencies,
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchieraiactually
conversedwithGuccifer2.0overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimed
tobeRomanian,answeredquestionsinshortsentencesthatwere
filledwithmistakesaccordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
smokescreenthattheactualculpritsemployedtohidetheir
involvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationandinfluence
operations.Russianpropagandistshavebeencaughthiringactors
toportrayvictimsofmanufacturedatrocitiesorcrimesfornews
reports(aswasthecasewhenViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohave
beenattackedbySyrianrefugeesinGermanyforRussias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting(asshown
inaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovaisrevealed
tobeinadarkenedroomwithexplosionsoundsplayinginthe
backgroundratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightis
switchedonduringtherecording),notesaRANDreportfrom
earlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedtolegitimize
theinformationdump,whichalsocontainsalargeamountof
personalinformationrelatedtodemocraticdonorssuchassocial
securityandcreditcardnumbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaks
didntperformathoroughanalysisofthedocumentsbeforethey
releasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformationsecurity
researcherBruceSchneiercallsorganizationaldoxingandthat
LawfaresNicholasWeavercallstheweaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priortotheDNCincident,
wastheJune2015thepublicationofseveralsetsofNSArecords
relatedtogovernmentintelligencecollectiontargets
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaksdoesntseemtocarethat
theyarebeingusedasaweaponbyunknownparties,instead
callingthemselvesalibraryofmasseducation.Buttherestofus
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinusedtogreat
effectlastweek.
Senttime: 07/25/201609:55:32PM
To: [email protected]@state.gov
Subject: Re:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
Thanks.Right.Discussedthisp.m.Willfillyouintomorrowmorning.
------Originalmessage------
From:Bob
Date:Mon,Jul25,201617:40
To:[email protected]@yahoo.com
Subject:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton
WikileaksfounderJulianAssangeasillustratedfortheObserverin2014.(IllustrationbyJoeCiardiello)
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpoliticalsensationandscandalonagrand
scale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillaryClinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocrats
presidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathatgetsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyanddishonest,nottomention
corrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrumphavebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.Tosay
thisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingtheTitanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeenforcedtotenderher
resignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeenrevealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNC
attentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnotshockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocrats
areanythingbutunitednowastheypreparetotakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbettertodamageHillaryandherefforts
tomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.AlthoughitsdoubtfulthatleakedRNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadfor
thepublic,ClintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththeindeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocratic
presidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.AlthoughtheDNCcantdenythatmanyof
theleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationiftheywerefake,obviouslythereremainsthe
importantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshandsonthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhichindependent
cybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknowncut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZY
BEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivatenetworksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theState
Department,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.AnotherhackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isa
well-knownRussianfront,asIvepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicasasignatureandKremlin
attributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloineddata,includingthousandsof
unflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.Inresponsetothedata-dump,
theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscowprefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusing
WikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymostpeopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasit
shouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlinfrontforyears,andits
nicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothisviewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,based
onmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesintheSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartmentcablesthathadbeenstolen
bydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkforthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashed
aglobalscandal.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.
AssangephotographedbyanObserverreporterin2014.(Photo:EmilyLembo)
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralianhacktivistJulianAssange,
whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfromrapechargesinSweden.Itsunclearwhenthegroups
tiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythetimeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewhocounseledtheAmericanIT
contractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceand
accompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialandAssangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsIexplainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhissecretservices,notablythe
FSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiestsecretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrant
andmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoiceforaprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakeyquestionthatany
counterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBordidhejustknowEdcouldobtainthe
sanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
ThentherestherevealingfactthatAssangehaswantedFSBprotectionforhimselftoo:
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,suggestingtheuseof
Russianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWesternprivacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhile
hidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygoodquestionthatanybody
whoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwroteaboutfullythreeyears
ago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-SemiticnutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformany
years,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyonRussianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.HisofficialbiographystatesthathewasbornintheSoviet
Unionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitaestandsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomething
likeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewithaliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,he
wasbestknownasaneo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentogetmixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionand
hangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.HisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmanyhavewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagent
provocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.JewishscholarNormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossed
pathswithShamirmorethanonce,calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimself
istrue.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhoheworksfor.Thesecretservices
hadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-Moscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasonto
doubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlinagitpropnetworkwhy
Westernreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportantquestion.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsago
droppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineonawidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowith
privacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemediahasbeengradually
noticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterviewwiththeObserverin2014,said:itispretty
clearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillancecomplexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithasbecome,whilethosewhoget
inbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbeaskedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirectties
withPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediagettherelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978themagazineCovertAction
InformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.ItseditorwasPhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohad
gottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGBcovernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandfor
yearsservedasaconduitforKremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,thoughfewmagazinestaffers
beyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.ItsbesttothinkofWkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedforthe
Internetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecentlyadmittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,
EdismerelytodaysPhilAgeethoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinanAmericanpresidential
election.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheColdWar,butPutinfearsnothinginObamas
Washington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,falseinformationhiddenamongfacts
toharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussianspytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,andtheDNCactuallyhas
doneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymanyAmericans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefers
TrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventheimportantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhat
betterwaytohelpistherethantodiscreditTeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.ItsnormalRussianspycraftto
placejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.HereweneedrigorousindependentanalysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassess
whatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfarmoretroubledbythe
nakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreattoourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintons
mightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNCleakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexamine
closelywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingforyears.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaks
finallybeingendorsedbythemedia,butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNC
emailshadbeenavoided.
Disclosure:DonaldTrumpisthefather-in-lawofJaredKushner,thepublisherofObserverMedia.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.Aspecialistinespionageand
terrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 07/25/201609:55:32PM
Subject: Re:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
Thanks.Right.Discussedthisp.m.Willfillyouintomorrowmorning.
------Originalmessage------
From:Bob
Date:Mon,Jul25,201617:40
To:[email protected]@yahoo.com
Subject:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpoliticalsensationandscandalonagrand
scale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillaryClinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocrats
presidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathatgetsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyanddishonest,nottomention
corrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrumphavebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.Tosay
thisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingtheTitanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeenforcedtotenderher
resignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeenrevealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNC
attentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnotshockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocrats
areanythingbutunitednowastheypreparetotakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbettertodamageHillaryandherefforts
tomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.AlthoughitsdoubtfulthatleakedRNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadfor
thepublic,ClintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththeindeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocratic
presidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.AlthoughtheDNCcantdenythatmanyof
theleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationiftheywerefake,obviouslythereremainsthe
importantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshandsonthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhichindependent
cybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknowncut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZY
BEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivatenetworksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theState
Department,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.AnotherhackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isa
well-knownRussianfront,asIvepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicasasignatureandKremlin
attributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloineddata,includingthousandsof
unflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.Inresponsetothedata-dump,
theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscowprefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusing
WikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymostpeopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasit
shouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlinfrontforyears,andits
nicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothisviewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,based
onmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesintheSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartmentcablesthathadbeenstolen
bydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkforthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashed
aglobalscandal.
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralianhacktivistJulianAssange,
whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfromrapechargesinSweden.Itsunclearwhenthegroups
tiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythetimeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewhocounseledtheAmericanIT
contractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceand
accompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialandAssangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsIexplainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhissecretservices,notablythe
FSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiestsecretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrant
andmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoiceforaprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakeyquestionthatany
counterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBordidhejustknowEdcouldobtainthe
sanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,suggestingtheuseof
Russianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWesternprivacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhile
hidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygoodquestionthatanybody
whoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwroteaboutfullythreeyears
ago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-SemiticnutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformany
years,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyonRussianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.HisofficialbiographystatesthathewasbornintheSoviet
Unionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitaestandsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomething
likeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewithaliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,he
wasbestknownasaneo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentogetmixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionand
hangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.HisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmanyhavewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagent
provocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.JewishscholarNormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossed
pathswithShamirmorethanonce,calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimself
istrue.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhoheworksfor.Thesecretservices
hadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-Moscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasonto
doubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlinagitpropnetworkwhy
Westernreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportantquestion.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsago
droppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineonawidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowith
privacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemediahasbeengradually
noticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterviewwiththeObserverin2014,said:itispretty
clearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillancecomplexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithasbecome,whilethosewhoget
inbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbeaskedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirectties
withPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediagettherelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978themagazineCovertAction
InformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.ItseditorwasPhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohad
gottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGBcovernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandfor
yearsservedasaconduitforKremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,thoughfewmagazinestaffers
beyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.ItsbesttothinkofWkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedforthe
Internetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecentlyadmittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,
EdismerelytodaysPhilAgeethoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinanAmericanpresidential
election.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheColdWar,butPutinfearsnothinginObamas
Washington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,falseinformationhiddenamongfacts
toharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussianspytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,andtheDNCactuallyhas
doneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymanyAmericans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefers
TrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventheimportantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhat
betterwaytohelpistherethantodiscreditTeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.ItsnormalRussianspycraftto
placejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.HereweneedrigorousindependentanalysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassess
whatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfarmoretroubledbythe
nakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreattoourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintons
mightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNCleakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexamine
closelywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingforyears.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaks
finallybeingendorsedbythemedia,butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNC
emailshadbeenavoided.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.Aspecialistinespionageand
terrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/25/201602:40:12PM
BCc: [email protected]
Subject: WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpolitical
sensationandscandalonagrandscale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillary
Clinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocratspresidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathat
getsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyand
dishonest,nottomentioncorrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrump
havebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.TosaythisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingthe
Titanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeen
forcedtotenderherresignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeen
revealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNCattentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnot
shockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocratsareanythingbutunitednowastheyprepare
totakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbetterto
damageHillaryandhereffortstomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.Althoughitsdoubtfulthatleaked
RNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadforthepublic,Clintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththe
indeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.Althoughthe
DNCcantdenythatmanyoftheleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationif
theywerefake,obviouslythereremainstheimportantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshands
onthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhich
independentcybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknown
cut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZYBEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivate
networksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theStateDepartment,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.Another
hackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isawell-knownRussianfront,as
Ivepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicas
asignatureandKremlinattributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloined
data,includingthousandsofunflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.In
responsetothedata-dump,theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscow
prefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusingWikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymost
peopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasitshouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlin
frontforyears,anditsnicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothis
viewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,basedonmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesin
theSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartment
cablesthathadbeenstolenbydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkfor
then-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashedaglobalscandal.
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralian
hacktivistJulianAssange,whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfrom
rapechargesinSweden.ItsunclearwhenthegroupstiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythe
timeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewho
counseledtheAmericanITcontractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013
whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceandaccompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialand
Assangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsI
explainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhis
secretservices,notablytheFSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiest
secretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrantandmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoice
foraprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakey
questionthatanycounterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBor
didhejustknowEdcouldobtainthesanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidethe
embassy,suggestingtheuseofRussianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWestern
privacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhilehidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygood
questionthatanybodywhoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwrote
aboutfullythreeyearsago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-Semitic
nutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformanyyears,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyon
Russianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.Hisofficialbiographystates
thathewasbornintheSovietUnionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitae
standsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomethinglikeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewith
aliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,hewasbestknownasa
neo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentoget
mixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocols
oftheEldersofZionandhangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.Hisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmany
havewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagentprovocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.Jewishscholar
NormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossedpathswithShamirmorethanonce,
calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimselfis
true.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhohe
worksfor.ThesecretserviceshadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-
MoscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasontodoubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlin
agitpropnetworkwhyWesternreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportant
question.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsagodroppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineon
awidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowithprivacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemedia
hasbeengraduallynoticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterview
withtheObserverin2014,said:itisprettyclearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillance
complexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithas
become,whilethosewhogetinbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbe
askedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirecttieswithPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediaget
therelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978
themagazineCovertActionInformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.Itseditorwas
PhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohadgottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGB
covernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandforyearsservedasaconduitfor
KremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,
thoughfewmagazinestaffersbeyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.Itsbesttothinkof
WkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedfortheInternetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecently
admittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,EdismerelytodaysPhilAgee
thoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinan
Americanpresidentialelection.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheCold
War,butPutinfearsnothinginObamasWashington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,false
informationhiddenamongfactstoharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussian
spytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,and
theDNCactuallyhasdoneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymany
Americans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefersTrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventhe
importantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhatbetterwaytohelpistherethantodiscredit
TeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.Its
normalRussianspycrafttoplacejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.Hereweneedrigorousindependent
analysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassesswhatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfar
moretroubledbythenakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreatto
ourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintonsmightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNC
leakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexaminecloselywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingfor
years.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaksfinallybeingendorsedbythemedia,
butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNCemailshad
beenavoided.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.A
specialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.Hespublished
fourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
From: Bob<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/25/201602:40:12PM
BCc: [email protected]
Subject: WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpolitical
sensationandscandalonagrandscale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillary
Clinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocratspresidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathat
getsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyand
dishonest,nottomentioncorrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrump
havebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.TosaythisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingthe
Titanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeen
forcedtotenderherresignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeen
revealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNCattentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnot
shockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocratsareanythingbutunitednowastheyprepare
totakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbetterto
damageHillaryandhereffortstomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.Althoughitsdoubtfulthatleaked
RNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadforthepublic,Clintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththe
indeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.Althoughthe
DNCcantdenythatmanyoftheleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationif
theywerefake,obviouslythereremainstheimportantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshands
onthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhich
independentcybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknown
cut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZYBEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivate
networksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theStateDepartment,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.Another
hackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isawell-knownRussianfront,as
Ivepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicas
asignatureandKremlinattributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloined
data,includingthousandsofunflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.In
responsetothedata-dump,theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscow
prefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusingWikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymost
peopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasitshouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlin
frontforyears,anditsnicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothis
viewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,basedonmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesin
theSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartment
cablesthathadbeenstolenbydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkfor
then-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashedaglobalscandal.
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralian
hacktivistJulianAssange,whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfrom
rapechargesinSweden.ItsunclearwhenthegroupstiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythe
timeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewho
counseledtheAmericanITcontractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013
whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceandaccompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialand
Assangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsI
explainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhis
secretservices,notablytheFSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiest
secretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrantandmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoice
foraprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakey
questionthatanycounterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBor
didhejustknowEdcouldobtainthesanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidethe
embassy,suggestingtheuseofRussianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWestern
privacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhilehidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygood
questionthatanybodywhoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwrote
aboutfullythreeyearsago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-Semitic
nutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformanyyears,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyon
Russianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.Hisofficialbiographystates
thathewasbornintheSovietUnionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitae
standsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomethinglikeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewith
aliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,hewasbestknownasa
neo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentoget
mixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocols
oftheEldersofZionandhangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.Hisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmany
havewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagentprovocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.Jewishscholar
NormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossedpathswithShamirmorethanonce,
calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimselfis
true.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhohe
worksfor.ThesecretserviceshadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-
MoscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasontodoubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlin
agitpropnetworkwhyWesternreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportant
question.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsagodroppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineon
awidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowithprivacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemedia
hasbeengraduallynoticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterview
withtheObserverin2014,said:itisprettyclearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillance
complexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithas
become,whilethosewhogetinbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbe
askedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirecttieswithPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediaget
therelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978
themagazineCovertActionInformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.Itseditorwas
PhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohadgottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGB
covernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandforyearsservedasaconduitfor
KremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,
thoughfewmagazinestaffersbeyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.Itsbesttothinkof
WkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedfortheInternetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecently
admittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,EdismerelytodaysPhilAgee
thoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinan
Americanpresidentialelection.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheCold
War,butPutinfearsnothinginObamasWashington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,false
informationhiddenamongfactstoharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussian
spytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,and
theDNCactuallyhasdoneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymany
Americans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefersTrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventhe
importantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhatbetterwaytohelpistherethantodiscredit
TeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.Its
normalRussianspycrafttoplacejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.Hereweneedrigorousindependent
analysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassesswhatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfar
moretroubledbythenakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreatto
ourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintonsmightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNC
leakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexaminecloselywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingfor
years.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaksfinallybeingendorsedbythemedia,
butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNCemailshad
beenavoided.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.A
specialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.Hespublished
fourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 07/25/201610:33:38AM
FW:APutinSPECIALOPERATIONtoelectTRUMPUSpresident?"AsDemocratsgather,aRussianSUBPLOTraisesintrigue,"nytimes.com,
Subject:
7/24
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,July25,201610:33AM
Subject:APutinSPECIALOPERATIONtoelectTRUMPUSpresident?"AsDemocratsgather,aRussianSUBPLOTraisesintrigue,"
nytimes.com,7/24
And:EliLAKE,CybersecurityexpertssayRussiaHACKEDtheDemocrats,Bloomberg.com/view,7/25
IstheKremlintryingtothrowtheUSpresidentialelectiontoDonaldTrump?Itsoundslikesomething
outofaspynovel.Butmanycybersecurityexperts,aswellastheHillaryClintoncampaign,arenow
sayingtheRussiansareresponsibleforlastmonthshackoftheDemocraticnationalCommittee.
And:WilliamKRISTOL,editor,TheWeeklyStandard,PUTINsPARTY[i.e.,theRepublicans],
http://www.weeklystandard.com/putins_parthy/article/2003473
ThefactisthatTrumpandhistopcampaignaidehavemanytroublingconnectionswithVladimir
PutinsregimeTrumpsbusinessseemstobeheavilydependentonRUSSIANINVESTMENT.Histop
campaignadvisor,PaulManafort,wasanadvisortothePutinbackedstoogeViktorYanukovych,and
hasdeeptiestothePutinapparatPracticallytheonlychangeTrumpscampaignmadetotheGOP
platformwastoweakenthelanguagesupportingUkraine.Wikileaks,whichappearstohave
connectionstoPutinsespionageapparatus,hasreleasedemailsthataredamagingtoHillaryClinton
immediatelybeforetheDemocraticconvention.Trumpheartilyapprovesofthisinterferencebya
foreignpowerinanAmericanelection.Theyapparentlyintendtodothesamewithemailshacked
fromClintonFoundationservers.Finally,Trump.TothecheersoftheKremlinestablishment,hassaid
hewillnotupholdourNATOcommitments.
And:NicoHINES,SpinelessIOCSURRENDERSOlympicintegritytoRussiaforever,
thedailybeast.com,7/25
And:AnnaNEMTSOVA,HowVladimirPutinsspiesHIDathletedoping,thedailybeast.com,7/24
And:RussianairstrikesleaveTHOUSANDSfacingstarvationinrebelheldALEPPO,
theguardian.com,7/23
And:HearingsinthetrialoftheaccusedkillersofBorisNEMTSOVbegantoday:
http://www.newsru.com/russia/25jul2016/safetymeasures_print.html
And:RussiabuildsdrilltowersonUKRAINIANGASFIELDS[theOdesaandHolitsynfields]inBlack
Sea,unian.info,7/25
From: ChrisBort<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/24/201606:09:39AM
To: [email protected]@gmail.com
Subject: Trump'sPutinFantasybyTimothySnyder|NYRDaily|TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/04/19/trumps-putin-fantasy/
TrumpsPutinFantasy
CarloAllegri/ReutersMaximShemetov/ReutersDonaldTrumpinSyracuse,NewYork,April16,2016
VladimirPutininMoscow,Russia,April14,2016
FewforeignleadersseementhusiasticabouttheprospectofaDonaldTrumppresidency.Butthereisonewhoshouldbepleased:
VladimirPutin.OrsoTrumpseemstothink.MostprominentRepublicanscriticizePresidentObamaforreactingtoofeeblytoRussian
domesticoppression,theRussianinvasionofsouthernandsoutheasternUkraine,andRussiasgrowingthreattoNATOinEastern
Europe.Trump,ontheotherhand,haspraisedPutinsstrongleadershipathome,calledNATOobsoleteandexpensive,andmadea
pointofdescribinghisfriendshipwithPutinthoughitseemstobeentirelyimaginary.
Fromthebeginningofhiscandidacylastsummer,TrumphasrepeatedlyclaimedthathewouldgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.
Lastfall,afterhewasinterviewedonthesamesegmentof60MinutesasPutin,hewarmlyreferredtotheexperienceofbeing
stablematesasgoingwell.Thiswasstrikinglyatoddswithreality,sinceTrumpwasintheUSandPutininRussiaduringthe
interviews,andthetwomendidnotinfactmeet.
Moreextraordinarystill,Trumphasindicated,inhisselectionlastmonthofCarterPageasaforeignpolicyadviser,thatAmericanpolicy
toEuropewillbeguidedbyRussianinterests.Page,heretoforeknownasanadvisertoRussiasstategascompany,hasbeenamongthe
prominentAmericansspreadingRussianpropagandaaboutUkrainesrevolutionin2014andtheRussianinvasionthatfollowed.Inhis
writingshehasquestionedUkrainesstatusasanindependentstate,whichispreciselythelinethatMoscowtooktojustifyitsinvasion.
HemaintainspreposterouslythatUkraineislikeQuebecinsideaRussiathatislikeCanada.QuebecisaprovinceandUkraineisa
country.HehasreferredtoRussiasannexationofUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula,asignalviolationofinternationallaw,astheso-called
annexation.
ItisnothardtoseewhyTrumpmightchoosePutinashisfantasyfriend.PutinistherealworldversionofthepersonTrumppretendsto
beontelevision.Trumpsfinancialsuccess(suchasitis)hasbeenasaNewYorkrealestatespeculator,aworldofprivatedeal-making
thatcanseemroughandtoughuntilyoucompareittotheRussiaofthe1990sthatultimatelyproducedthePutinregime.Trump
presentshimselfasthemakerofafinancialempirewhoiswillingtobreakalltherules,whereasthatiswhatPutininfactis.Thusfar
Trumpcanonlyverballyabusehisopponentsatrallies,whereasPutinsopponentsareassassinated.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyhavehis
campaignmanagerroughupjournalistshedoesntlike.InRussiasomeofthebestjournalistsareinfactmurdered.
PresidentPutin,whoisanintelligentandpenetratingjudgeofmen,especiallymenwithmasculinityissues,hasquicklydrawnthecorrect
conclusion.Inthepasthehasdonewellforhimselfbyrecruitingamongpoliticianswhoexhibitgreatervanitythandecency,suchasSilvio
BerlusconiandGerhardSchrder.ThepremiseofRussianforeignpolicytotheWestisthattheruleoflawisonebigjokethepractice
ofRussianforeignpolicyistofindprominentpeopleintheWestwhoagree.MoscowhasfoundsuchpeoplethroughoutEuropeuntilthe
riseofTrumptheideaofanAmericanwhowouldvolunteertobeaKremlinclientwouldhaveseemedunlikely.Trumprepresentsan
unprecedentedstandardofAmericanservility,andshouldthereforebecultivatedasafutureRussianclient.
TrumpcorrectlysaysthatPutinrespectsstrength.ButofcoursePutinprefersweakness,whichiswhatTrumpoffers.AsPutin
understandsperfectlywell,thepresidentoftheUnitedStateshasstandinginRussia,andenjoysfarsuperiorpowertothepresidentof
Russia,onlyinsofarasheorshemobilizesthemoralandpoliticalresourcesofarule-of-lawstate.ItispreciselyTrumpsposeofstrength
thatrevealshiscrucialvulnerability.AsanyonefamiliarwithRussianpoliticsunderstands,anAmericanpresidentwhoshunsallianceswith
fellowdemocracies,praisesdictators,andprefersdealstotheruleoflawwouldbeaveryeasymarkinMoscow.Itisunclearhow
muchmoneyTrumphas,butitisnotenoughtomatterinRussia.Ifhekeepsuphisposeasthetoughbillionaire,hewillbeflatteredby
theRussianmedia,scornedbythosewhomatterinRussia,andtheneasilycrushedbymenfarricherandsmarterthanhe.
PutinhasbeenaccordinglycircumspectinhisreturnofTrumpswooing.ForhimTrumpisasmallmanwhomightgaingreatpower.The
trickistomanipulatethesmallmanandtherebyneutralizethegreatpower.InhisannualpressconferencelastDecember,afterhearing
sixmonthsofpraisefromTrump,PutinsaidthathewelcomedTrumpsideaofplacingUS-Russianrelationsonamoresolidbasis,and
characterizedTrumpasflamboyant,talented,withoutadoubt.Itishardtomisstheambiguityofflamboyant,butTrumpchoseto
missit.
ThenextdayTrumpseemedpleased.PerhapshavingbeenmisadvisedaboutwhatPutinactuallysaid,Trumpsaidthat,Whenpeople
callyoubrilliantitsalwaysgood.Aftersuggestingthatkillingjournalistswasnormal,heconcludedwarmlythatIvealwaysfeltfine
aboutPutin,Ithinkthat,youknow,hesastrongleader,hesapowerfulleader,hesrepresentedhiscountry.Notlongafterthat,Trump
defendedPutinfromtheofficialBritishinquiryintotheassassinationofAlexanderLitvinenko.TrumpsreasoningwasthatPutinsaidhe
didntdoit.InMarchTrumpsaidthatPutinwasastrongerleaderthanthepresidentoftheUnitedStates.Foracrumbofpraisefrom
Putin,Trumphaspresentedcriminalityasnormalandsoldouthisownheadofstate.
LetusimaginethefirstfewweeksofaTrumpadministration.Mostofhisdomesticagendawillquicklyproveillegal,oratleastvery
complicatedtoimplement.Heisnotamanwhohasdisplayedmuchpatienceformanagement.Itseemsverylikelythathewouldquickly
turnabroadforthatsurgeofapprovalthatheseemstofindsopleasurable.Andtherewouldbenoeasierwaytogainsuchafeelingthan
curryingfavorwithPutin.Itissomucheasiertoignoretraditionalalliesthantocultivatethem,andsomucheasiertoignoreaggression
thantomaintainorder.ThelouchestylethatTrumpseemslikelytobringtoAmericanforeignpolicyisallhewillneedtogarnerpraise
fromthemanheadmires.GivenwhatTrumphasdonethusfar,undernostressandwithlittleencouragement,itisterrifyingto
contemplatewhathewoulddoasafrustratedAmericanpresidentlookingforlove.
EvenasPutincarefullycultivatesafutureclient,theRussianpopulation(aloneinthedevelopedworld)prefersTrumptoClinton,and
RussianelitesrevealtheirexcitementattheprospectofatameAmerica.Itisunusual,ofcourse,forRussianorotherpublicfiguresto
takesidesinAmericanelections.Prudenceusuallyoverridespreferenceeventhemostwillfulauthoritariansandmediafiguresusually
hedgetheirbets,knowingthatendorsingalosingcandidatecanbringeightyearsofbadluckwhileendorsingtheeventualwinnermay
bringverylittle.Inthisparticularelectioncycle,however,Russianpoliticiansareinanunusualsituation.HillaryClintonhasbeenthetarget
ofsuchcriticismfromRussiaanditscurrentpresidentthatitisimpossibletocreatetheimpressionofevenhandedness.InDecember
2011,VladimirPutinpersonally(andabsurdly)blamedClinton,thenUSsecretaryofstate,forgivingasignalthatpromptedRussians
toprotestfakedparliamentaryelections.
Onceliberatedfromthenormalrulesofthegame,Russianpoliticianshavebeenabletogivevoicetowhatseemslikeheartfeltsympathy
forTrump.VasilyLikhachev,aCommunistintheRussianparliament,explicitlyexpressedhispreferenceforTrumpoverClinton.Dmitry
Kiselev,theRussiantalkshowstarbestknownintheWestforremindingusthatRussiacanturntheUSintoradioactiveashandfor
advisingthattheheartsofgaysbeburnedaftertheirdeaths,gushesthatanewstarisrisingTrump.KonstantinRykov,amemberof
PutinsUnitedRussiapartyandaleadingmediamanager,opinesthatTrumpistheveryembodimentoftheAmericandream.Aleksei
Pushkov,thechairmanoftheRussianparliamentsinternationalaffairscommittee,tweetsadmiringlyaboutTrumponaregularbasis.
Mostrevealingly,hewrotethatTrumpcanleadtheWesternlocomotiverightofftherails.
TheexplicitendorsementofTrumpbyAleksandrDugin,theleadingRussianfascistideologueandaveryimportantmediapresencein
Russia,isparticularlyalarming.ThepremiseofDuginsEurasianmovementisthatRussiaandtheWestareartificiallyseparatedby
enlightenedideasoftheruleoflawandindividualrights.OnceleadersoftheWestunderstandthattheseareartificial(Jewish)
implantations,theycanjoinRussiaintheembraceoffascism.DuginaccordinglypraisestheAmericanpeople,callinguponthemtoshed
theiroligarchicelitesandreturntotheirtrue(fascist)values.IreadDuginsuseofoligarchictomeanJewishasuspicion
confirmedbyDuginsreactiontoanactualoligarchwhoenjoysthebackingofAmericanneo-Nazis:Trumpisthevoiceoftherealright
winginAmerica,hewrites.VoteforTrump!
TheRussianexpectationisthataTrumpvictorywouldberuinousforAmericanpower,andthatsuchpowerasremainswillbedeployed
tosupportRussianinterests.TrumpsfantasyfriendshipwithPutinisonemorereasontoexpectthataTrumpvictorywouldalsobe
disastrousforAmericanvaluesandinstitutions.Putincanbeexpected,ifthetwomenactuallymeetaspresidents,toflatterTrumps
vanityandurgehimonwardtowardafullassaultontheConstitution.RussiaisinadownwardspiralofitsownwhatAmericansmust
considernowisaweakpresidentialcandidatewhowantstofollowPutinscharmwhereitleads,whichmostlikelymeansstraighttothe
bottom.
Senttime: 07/25/201612:07:52PM
FW:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclear
Subject:
PolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenukearsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristolpi
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:[email protected]]
Sent:Monday,July25,201611:38AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlans
NuclearPolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenukearsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristol
pie...
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<[email protected]>
Subject:FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals
To:walter<[email protected]>
FollowandSupportFPI
FPIBulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals
ByFPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnik
OnJuly10,theWashingtonPostreportedthatPresidentObamasnationalsecurityteamhadbeguntoassembleadisarmamentagendaforthe
Presidentsfinalmonthsoffice.Bydesign,theagendaconsistedofinitiativesthatthePresidentcouldimplementwithoutcongressionalapproval
eventhoughsomeentailedbreakingpledgesmadetoCongressinpreviousyears.ThisconcernledtheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeto
summonkeyadministrationofficialsforahearingonnuclearpolicy,whichlaidbarethefaultlinesonthisissuebetweentheWhiteHouseandthe
Pentagon.Althoughhesitanttospeakdirectlytointernaldebates,seniormilitaryleadersbelievethatthecredibilityoftheU.S.nucleardeterrent
couldbediminishedbythepoliciesthatarenowgainingtractionattheWhiteHouse.

HintsofaWhiteHouseReversal

InaJune6addresstotheArmsControlAssociation,DeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorBenRhodesgavethefirsthintsofaturnaboutonnuclear
policy.Rhodestoldtheaudience,IcanpromiseyoutodaythatPresidentObamaiscontinuingtoreviewanumberofwayshecanadvancethe
Pragueagendaoverthecourseofthenextsevenmonths.Putsimply,ourworkisnotfinishedontheseissues.Sevenyearsago,PresidentObama
deliveredamajoraddressinthecapitaloftheCzechRepublic,wherehesaid,ToputanendtoColdWarthinking,wewillreducetheroleof
nuclearweaponsinournationalsecuritystrategywewillbegintheworkofreducingourarsenal.

AttheArmsControlAssociation,Rhodestouchedanervebysuggestingthepossibilityofsubstantialreductionstothenuclearweapons
budget.Inmid-June,SenateArmedServicesChairmanJohnMcCain(R-AZ)andForeignRelationsChairmanBobCorker(R-TN)sentaletterto
PresidentObamawarninghimthatbudgetcutswouldviolatehis2010agreementwiththeSenate,whichentailedacommitmenttoprovidefull
fundingforthemodernizationoftheU.S.nucleararsenalinexchangeforSenateratificationoftheNewSTARTtreatywithRussia.

ItsoonbecameapparentthatSenatorsonbothsidesoftheaislesharedtheapprehensionofthetwocommitteechairmen.OnJuly8,fourteen
SenatorssignedalettertotheSecretaryofDefenseexpressingtheiruneasewithrecentstatementsbystaffmembersoftheNationalSecurity
CouncilthatquestionthenuclearmodernizationagendaandthreatentounderminethePentagonscommitmenttotheagendasimplementation.
SignatoriesincludedSen.TimKaine(D-VA)andSen.JackReed(D-RI),therankingmemberoftheArmedServicesCommittee.
Inadditiontopotentialbudgetcuts,theWashingtonPostidentifiedseveralotherdisarmamentinitiativesunderconsiderationattheWhiteHouse.
Theyincludedthecancellationofaprogramtoreplaceagingcruisemissiles,afive-yearextensionoftheNewSTARTagreement,UNapprovalof
theunratifiedComprehensiveTestBanTreaty(CTBT),andapublicpledgethattheUnitedStateswouldneverusenuclearweaponsunless
anothernationusedthemfirst.
ACongressionalSpotlightonNuclearPolicy
Knowingthatseniormilitaryleadershaveseriousreservationsabouttheseoptions,theHouseArmedServicesCommitteeaskedthemtotestify
onJuly14,inordertoraisepublicawarenessofthetensionbetweentheapparentWhiteHouseagendaandthebestadviceofthosedirectly
responsibleforthenucleardeterrent.WhatthehearingdemonstratedisthatPentagonleadersarewaryofinvolvementinpoliticizeddebates,yet
preparedtoalertlawmakersandthepublictotheirconcernsaboutthecredibilityandreliabilityoftheU.S.deterrent.
Ontheissueoffundingforthenucleartriad,AdmiralCecilHaney,headofU.S.StrategicCommand,saidthatthePresidentsproposedbudgetfor
2017supportsmymissionrequirements.Butletmebeclear,thereisnomargintoabsorbnewrisk.Inotherwords,cuttingthebudgetwouldbe
irresponsible.
Whenaskedabouttheadvisabilityofanofirstusepolicy,AdmiralHaneysignaledhisconcernbyinsistingacarefulreviewwouldhaveto
precedeanychanges.Ifanofirstusepolicywereproposed,hesaid,Thatwouldrequiresomescrutinytomakesurewearenotgoingtoimpact
strategicstability.WhenaskedifanofirstusepolicywouldlimittheoptionsavailabletothePresidentinacrisis,Haneyrespondedthathis
generalapproachismakingsureIcanmaximizepresidentialdecisionspaceandoptions.
AdmiralHaneyandtheotherwitnessespreferredabolderapproachwhenaddressingthemeritsofcurrentplanstobuildanewcruisemissile
knownastheLongRangeStand-Offweapon,orLRS-O.GeneralRobinRand,theheadofAirForceGlobalStrikeCommand,describedthecurrent
versionoftheair-launchedcruisemissile(ALCM)asa10-yearmissileinits30t hyearwhichwillbeincreasinglyvulnerabletoenemyair
defenses.AdmiralHaneyofferedhisassessmentthatfieldingLRS-Oasareplacementwillhelptodeterescalationduringfutureconflictswhile
reassuringallieswhodependontheU.S.nuclearumbrella,becausethedeploymentofnuclear-capablecruisemissilesisavisiblesignofresolve,
whereassubmarinesarenot.
GeneralRandalsospokeforcefullyabouttheneedtoreplacetheMinutemanIII,theagingmainstayoftheintercontinentalballisticmissile(ICBM)
force.RandobservedthattheMinutemanIIIiscominguponits50t hyearinservice.AlthoughopponentsofanewICBMhaveproposedan
efforttoextendtheservicelifeoftheMinutemanIII,Randdismissedthatoptionasunwiseongroundsofbothcostandeffectiveness.Hesaid
anewICBMwouldbemorereliableandmoresurvivableaswellascostingjustslightlylessthanalifeextensionfortheMinutemanIII.
RobertScher,theAssistantSecretaryofDefenseforStrategy,Plans,andCapabilities,revealedsubstantiallylessabouthisopinionsthanthe
militarymenonthepanel,yetevenScherhintedathisreservationsoncertainpoints.Whenaskedwhethertheadministrationwouldextendthe
NewSTARTtreatydespiteRussiasflagrantviolationofotherarmscontrolpacts,Schersimplysaid,Idonotknowtheanswer.Whenasked
whetheranyoneelseknewtheanswer,Scherresponded,Thereareongoingdiscussions,asyouveheard,butIreallyamnotatlibertytotalk
aboutongoingdiscussionsbeforedecisionshavebeenmade.
ScheralsosaidthathecouldnotdisclosethecontentofdiscussionsaboutbypassingSenateratificationofCTBTyetacknowledgedthathehad
anticipatedthequestion,sincethetoparmscontrolofficialattheStateDepartmenthadpreviouslyassuredthecommitteethattheSenates
prerogativeswouldberespected.Furthermore,SchertestifiedthathehadcontactedthatsameofficialpriortohistestimonybeforetheHouseand
shestandsbythestatementsthat[seekingaUNresolutiononCTBT]wouldtakeawaytheprerogativeoftheSenateforratifyingtreated.In
effect,SchersentamessagethatboththePentagonandtheStateDepartmentopposedanyefforttobypasstheSenate,evenifsomeintheWhite
Housefavoredthatapproach.
Finally,whenaddressingLRS-O,Schersimplygavehisunqualifiedopinionthatfieldinganupdatednuclear-capablecruisemissileiscriticalto
U.S.nationalsecurity.Thepreviousday,atahearingfocusedentirelyonLRS-O,Scherelaboratedhisargumentsonbehalfofthemissileprogram
ingreaterdetail.SeniorofficialsfromtheDepartmentsofStateandEnergyexpressedstrongagreement.Onthisparticularissue,WhiteHouse
skepticsseemtohavefewalliesevenwithintheadministration.
WhatWillPresidentObamaDecide?
TheWashingtonPostreportedthattheWhiteHousehasconvenedtwoCabinet-levelmeetingstoreviewapotentialdisarmamentagendaforthe
Presidentsfinalmonthsinoffice.Nofinaldecisionshavebeenmade,thepapersaid,butObamaisexpectedtoweighinpersonallysoon.
WhenthePresidentfinallyweighsin,heshouldkeepinmindthe2010letteronnuclearmodernization,inwhichhepledgedtotheSenatethatmy
AdministrationwillpursuetheseprogramsandcapabilitiesforaslongasIamPresident.Alast-minutecancellationofmissilereplacement
programsorabidtocutthenuclearweaponsbudgetwouldviolatethispledge.SeekingUNapprovaloftheCTBTwouldbreakaseparatepromise
theadministrationmadetoCongress.ThedecisiontoextendNewSTARTshouldbemadebythenextpresident,sincetheextensionwouldrun
throughtheendofhisorhertenure.
Moreimportantly,thereisnostrategicjustificationforanyoftheinitiativestheWhiteHouseisapparentlyconsidering.Nucleardangershave
onlyintensifiedsincethePresidentunveiledhisPragueagenda.TestifyingbeforetheHouse,RobertScherdescribedRussianeffortstolowerthe
thresholdforemployingnuclearweaponsasparticularlyconcerninganddangerous.Yeteachandeveryoneoftheinitiativesunder
considerationbytheWhiteHouseprimarilyconstrainstheUnitedStatesandlessensthecredibilityofitsnucleardeterrentwhilefailingtoreinin
theprovocationsofhostilenuclearweaponstates.SevenyearsafterPresidentObamaunveiledhisPragueagenda,itremainsunclearwhetherhe
haslearnedthatAmericanconcessionscannotreducethethreatofnuclearwarifRussia,China,NorthKoreaandothersremainfirmlycommitted
togrowingandmodernizingtheirarsenals.
AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromotean
activeU.S.foreignpolicycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthe
challengesofthe21stcentury,andstrengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisledby
ExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoardofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visitour
websiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
IfyousupportFPI'smission,pleaseconsidermakingatax-deductibledonationtoday.
TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:[email protected]
Washington,D.C.20036 VisitOurWebsite
Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI
From:YuriShymko<[email protected]>
Date:Sun,Jul24,2016at11:05PM
Subject:PutinsinfluenceoverUSpolitics
To:
ExcellentarticlebyWilliamKristolcallingonRepublicanleaderstoinvestigateTrump'sconnectiontoPutin.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/putins-party/article/2003473
Putin'sParty?
7:00AM,JUL24,2016|ByWILLIAMKRISTOL
GageSkidmore

DonaldJ.Trumpisthepresidentialnomineeofthe
Republicanparty.Butthatdoesnotabsolveevery
Republicanofficeholder,donor,andactivistfromthe
responsibilityofsatisfyinghimselfthatitisrighttosupport
thatnomineeforpresident.Thereare,inmyjudgment,many
reasonstodoubtthisisthecase.Butonereasonin
particularhasn'treceivedsufficientconsideration:Thefact
thatTrumpandhistopcampaignaidehavemanytroubling
connectionswithVladimirPutin'sregime.
HonestandpatrioticRepublicanswhosupportTrump,oraretemptedtodoso,shouldreview
someofthepubliclyavailableevidence.Trump'sbusinessseemstobeheavily
dependentonRussianinvestment.Histopcampaignadvisor,PaulManafort,wastheadvisorto
thePutin-backedstoogeViktorYanukovich,andhasdeeptiestothePutinapparat.Oneof
Trump'snationalsecurityadvisors,retiredLt.GeneralMichaelFlynn,waspaidtogiveaspeechat
aRussianpropagandacelebrationandwasseatednexttoPutin.Trump'sRussiaadvisorCarter
Page,whodoesmuchofhisbusinesswithRussiancompanies,hasargued,amongotherthings,
that"afewofficialsinWashington"annexedUkraineandthatthe"so-calledannexation"ofCrimea
byRussiawasarationalresponsetothisinjustice.
Furthermore,practicallytheonlychangeTrump'scampaignmadetotheGOPplatformwasto
weakenlanguagesupportingUkraine.Wikileaks,whichappearstohaveconnectionstoPutin's
espionageapparatus,hasreleasedemailsthataredamagingtoHillaryClintonimmediatelybefore
theDemocraticconvention.Trumpheartilyapprovesofthisinterferencebyaforeignpowerinan
Americanelection.TheyapparentlyintendtodothesamewithemailshackedfromClinton
Foundationservers.Finally,Trump,tothecheersoftheKremlinestablishment,hassaidhewillnot
upholdourNATOcommitments.
TheseindicationsprovidesufficientgroundsforTrump'slinkstoPutintobefurtherinvestigated.
PoliticianswhoarecurrentlysupportingTrumpshouldwithdrawtheirunconditionalsupport"until,"
asMr.Trumpmightsay,"wecanfigureoutwhat'sgoingon."Onethingthatwouldhelpusfigure
outwhat'sgoingonisifTrumpandManafortreleasedtheirtaxreturns.Theyofcoursehaven't
doneso.Indeed,it'sstrikingthatneitherseemseventohaveputhiscurrentbusinessinterestsin
anykindofblindtrust.Sowedon'tknowhowdirectandcloseafinancialrelationshipTrumpand
ManaforthavewiththePutinregime.
IfTrumpandManafortdon'tacttoallaytheseconcernsbyreleasingtheirtaxreturns(orinother
ways),wouldn'titbeadvisableforaRepublicanmemberofCongresstoleadanurgent
investigationintowhetherPutinisinterferinginthecurrentAmericanelection?Trumpand
ManafortmaybePutin'schumps.WillotherRepublicanssitbyasthewholeRepublicanparty
becomesPutin'sparty?
From:@hunter
Subject:CybersecurityExpertsSayRussiaHackedtheDemocrats
WAZ:IftheRussianshackedarelativelysecureDNCsite,whatdoyouthinktheydidtoHilary'sunsecuredserver?H
NYTimesHintsPutinMayHaveLeaked
DNCEmailstoAidTrump
(APPhoto/AlexBrandon)ByMarkSwanson|Monday,25Jul201610:46AM
AfterFriday'sleakof20,000stolenemailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommittee,thesecondofitskindinthreemonths,The
NewYorkTimesranastorysuggestingalinkfromthehackstoRussiaPresidentVladimirPutintoaidDonaldTrump.
WhathadbeenquietinnuendohasevolvedintotheKremlin'sroleinthehackandleakandwhetherPutinhasanactiverolein
influencingtheelectioninfavorofTrump.
TheemaildumponFridayhasembarrassedDemocratsafterexposingleadership'sdealingswithBernieSandersandledtothe
swiftresignationannouncementofDemocraticNationalCommitteeChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultz.
U.S.cybersecurityfirmshavefoundtheDNCbreachwasdonebythesameRussianintelligencehackerstheyfoundlodgedin
sensitivegovernmentagencyserversbefore,andthoughadirecttracebacktoanyonespecificisnearlyimpossible,it'senoughto
emboldenclaimsofconspiracytheoriesfromtheleft.
HillaryClintoncampaignmanagerRobbyMooktooktotheSundaymorningtalkshowcircuittoclaimtheRussiansarehelping
DonaldTrump,aHailMarydenouncedandridiculedbyTeamTrump,theTimesreported.
ButbetweentherepeatedhitonDemocrats,Trump'spublicrespectforRussiaPresidentVladimirPutin,hisanti-NATOremark
lastweek,andcampaignmanagerPaulManafort'stiestotheformerRussian-backedleaderofUkraine,there'senoughintriguefor
aspynovel.
ButwhatimpactithasthisweekontheDemocraticconventionespeciallywithSanderssupportersinPhiladelphiaandon
theelectionissomethingthathastobemanaged.Andquestionsaregettingasked.
ManafortonSundaywasaskedbyABCdirectlyifthereareanytiesbetweenTrumpandPutin.
"No,therearenot,"ManafortwasquotedbytheTimes."That'sabsurd.And,youknow,there'snobasistoit."
RelatedStories:
DebbieWassermanSchultztoStepDownasDNCChairAfterConvention
ClintonCampaignManager:RussiansBehindLeakedDNCEmails
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/russia-democrat-dnc-debbie-wasserman-
schultz/2016/07/25/id/740274/#ixzz4FRgB00wJ
CybersecurityExpertsSayRussia
HackedtheDemocrats
256 JULY25,20166:46AMEDT By
EliLake
IstheKremlintryingtothrowtheU.S.presidentialelectiontoDonaldTrump?Itsoundslikesomethingoutof
aspynovel.Butmanycybersecurityexperts,aswellastheHillaryClintoncampaign,arenowsayingthe
Russiansareresponsibleforlastmonth'shackoftheDemocraticNationalCommittee.
ThathackhasdominatedthenewscycleontheeveoftheDemocraticconvention,andforgoodreason.
TheemailsdisclosedFridaybyWikiLeaksareembarrassing.TheyshowDNCchairwoman,Debbie
WassermanSchultz,plottingtounderminethecampaignofSenatorBernieSanders,confirmingtheworst
suspicionsoftheleftflankoftheparty.SheresignedherpostonSunday.
Butthebiggerissueiswhowasresponsibleforthehackinthefirstplace.BobGourley,aformerchief
technologyofficerfortheDefenseIntelligenceAgencyandnowtheco-founderandpartnerCognitio,a
cybersecurityconsultancy,toldmeSundaythathethinkstheRussiansdidit.
"ThesoftwarecodethatIhaveseenfromthehackhadallthetelltalesignsofbeingRussian,includingcode
re-usedfromotherattacks,"Gourleytoldme."Thisisareallybigdeal.Somepeopleinthecommunityare
sayingthisistheRussianspretendingtobeahacker,thengivingthatinformationtoJulianAssangeisall
partofanoperation."(AssangefoundedWikiLeaks.)
Gourleyisnotaloneamongcybersecurityexperts.WhenthehackoftheDNCwasfirstdisclosedinJune,
thesecurityfirmCrowdstrikealsopointedtotheRussians.Crowdstrikeinvestigatedtheincidentforthe
DemocraticpartyandconcludeditwasthesameactorthatpenetratedtheStateDepartment,WhiteHouse
andPentagonunclassifiedsystemsin2015.Describingthecodeusedforthepenetrationinablogpost,
Crowdstrikeco-founderDmitriAlperovitchwrote:"Bothadversariesengageinextensivepoliticaland
economicespionageforthebenefitofthegovernmentoftheRussianFederationandarebelievedtobe
closelylinkedtotheRussiangovernmentspowerfulandhighlycapableintelligenceservices."
Overtheweekend,theTrumpandClintoncampaignstradedaccusationsontheissue.
ClintoncampaignmanagerRobbieMooktoldABCNewstheexpertsconsultedbythecampaignsaiditwas
Russia.PaulManafort,whorunstheTrumpcampaign,respondedthatthiswas"pureobfuscation."
ThetechnicalcaseforattributingtheDNChacktoRussiarestsinthesimilarityofthecodefoundonthe
committeesserverstootherhacksbelievedtohaveoriginatedinRussia.Gourleyacknowledgesthoughthis
isn'tfoolproof."ItcouldbesomehackerinagarageinFloridafoundthiscodeandre-usedit,"hesaid."But
historicallythebadguysre-usetheirowncodealot."
ThereisalsoacircumstantialcasethattheRussiansarebehindthehack.Tostart,ViceMagazine's
MotherboardchannelgotholdoftheallegedRomanianhacker,Guccifer2.0,whohasclaimedcreditforthe
cyberskullduggery.ThehackerwasaskedtodescribehishackinRomanianandcouldn'tstringtogethera
coherentsentenceinthelanguage.
Thenthereisthequestionofwhobenefits.WhileClintonimplementedaresetinrelationswithRussiawhen
shewassecretaryofstate,shehassincesouredonMoscow.WhenRussianirregularsinvadedUkrainein
2014,shecomparedPutintoHitler.
Trumpontheotherhandhasbuckedhisparty'sRussiahawks.HehassaidhewouldonlyaidNATOstates
iftheypaidtheirfairshareofthedefenseburdeninEurope.UntilTrump,noRepublicanpresidential
nomineehasquestionedtheU.S.mutual-defensecommitmentenshrinedinNATO.
DevinNunes,theRepublicanchairmanoftheHousePermanentSelectCommitteeonIntelligence,toldme
thatitwasinRussianpresidentVladimirPutin'sinterestfor"theDemocratstokeeppoweroverforeign
policyandtohaveHillaryClinton--architectoftheRussiaresetpolicythatopenedthedoorforPutin's
aggressionthroughouttheglobe--becomepresident."Headded:"That'swhyIlikethisparticular
conspiracytheoryeventhoughIdon'tbelieveit--itwouldmeanPutinisfarlessintelligentthanIthought,
andthatwouldbecomfortingtome."
MikeVickers,aformerundersecretaryofdefenseforIntelligenceandaClintonsupporter,disagrees."I
thinkallsignspointtocyberactorswithtiestoRussianIntelligence,hetoldmeonSunday.Whatis
unprecedented,itseemstome,istheuseofthesetoolsforcovertpoliticalinfluenceagainsttheUnited
Statesduringapresidentialgeneralelection."
Thatindeedwouldbeunprecedented.TheRussiansoperateRT,anEnglish-languagetelevisionnetworkthat
givesairtimeto9/11conspiracytheoristsandotheranti-Americanviews.IftheRussiansarebehindthe
DNChack,itwouldbeanewtacticthatcombinesthestate'sovertinfluenceoperationswithitscovert
cyber-spying.
MikeFlynn,whoservedasDefenseIntelligenceAgencydirectorbetween2012and2014andisanadviser
totheTrumpcampaign,toldmehewouldn'tbesurprisediftheRussianswerebehindtheDNChack.Both
ChinaandRussiahavethefullcapabilitytodothis,"hesaid."IfsomeoneweretofindoutRussiadidthisI
wouldnotbesurprisedatall."Flynnsaid,however,thattherealproblemisthatthereisverypoor
informationsecurityforU.S.politicalpartiesandcampaigns."Thisisanotheremailscandalforthe
Democraticparty,"hesaid.
Thereissomethingtothis.LastyearagroupcalledtheOnlineTrustAlliancesurveyedmajorpresidential
campaignwebsitesandfoundthatonlysixmetbasicstandardsforsecurity,privacyandconsumerdata
protection.
PartoftheproblemisthattheFederalElectionCommissiondoesnotimposebasiccybersecurity
standardsforpoliticalpartiesandcampaignsthewaytheFederalTradeCommissiondoesforU.S.
businesses."Bynothavingaregulatorthathastheauthoritytoinvestigatethecampaignsandthedata
securitypracticesofpoliticalparties,itwasonlyamatteroftimebeforeacampaignornationalpartywas
hacked,"ChrisSoghoian,thechieftechnologistfortheAmericanCivilLibertiesUniontoldme.
Inthissense,theproblemofRussianhackingmaybebipartisan.InMay,DirectorofNationalIntelligence
JamesClappersaidtherewereindicationsofhacksagainstboththeTrumpandClintoncampaigns.
Thismaybetrue,butsofaronlytheDemocratshaveseentheirpilferedemailsmadepublic.Inthatsenseit
looksliketheRussiansareplayingfavoritesinAmericanpolitics,somethingtheKremlinhasaccusedthe
U.S.ofdoingtoRussiaforthelast100years.
ThiscolumndoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionoftheeditorialboardorBloombergLPanditsowners.
Tocontacttheauthorofthisstory:
[email protected]
Tocontacttheeditorresponsibleforthisstory:
[email protected]
From: DonaldJensen<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/22/201605:19:54AM
To: RobertOtto<[email protected]>
Subject: Re:IgiveKuchinspropsfortrackingdownthetextofcatastrophe--here'sanotherIwishpeoplewouldread.......
Okay.Havehadnochancetoreadanything.
Sittingwithfishel.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnJul22,2016,at8:13AM,RobertOtto<[email protected]>wrote:
SeetheNovayapieceIsentthismorning
OnFri,Jul22,2016at7:03AM,DonaldJensen<[email protected]>wrote:
Incar.IwouldifIwassurewhatpropsare.
WhitmoreandandIgothertocomeontheprogramtodayduetotheconflicttowhichIamheaded.
SentfrommyiPhone
You'renotgoingtogivepropsforgivingpropstoOrlova?
Yes!
Readthefirstthreewordsandrecognizethearticle.
OnFri,Jul22,2016at5:46AM,RobertOtto<[email protected]>wrote:
IamrathercertainthathadCharapbeenaroundinthe90s,he'shavebeenoneofthosefolks
arguinga)russia'spathtodemocracyandb)it'snotnearlyasbadthereassomefolkssay.
Somethingalongthelinesofthisgem.
http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right
HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstates
asamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20thcentury.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,
fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryinthe
UnitedStatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.Focusingonluridaccountsof
Russianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpoliticalandeconomicdisarray,
politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucial
strategicrelationshipand"losing"Russia.
Yougotyourguythere,waspleasedtosee.HewasproperlyOttonian.
WillspareyouthevacancyofRojanskyandsomeoftheothers.
Oneofmygripes:peoplelikeCharapreferrring(hemusthavereaditsomewhere)to"the
collapse/disasterofthe90s"Well,Iwasthereanditwasfarmorwecompliactedthanthat.
DidIsaythatnoonereadsanything?Butyouknewthat.
Article5
ThePartiesagreethatanarmedattackagainstoneormoreoftheminEuropeor
NorthAmericashallbeconsideredanattackagainstthemallandconsequentlythey
agreethat,ifsuchanarmedattackoccurs,eachofthem,inexerciseoftherightof
individualorcollectiveself-defencerecognisedbyArticle51oftheCharterofthe
UnitedNations,willassistthePartyorPartiessoattackedbytakingforthwith,
individuallyandinconcertwiththeotherParties,suchactionasitdeemsnecessary,
includingtheuseofarmedforce,torestoreandmaintainthesecurityoftheNorth
Atlanticarea.
Anysucharmedattackandallmeasurestakenasaresultthereofshallimmediately
bereportedtotheSecurityCouncil.Suchmeasuresshallbeterminatedwhenthe
SecurityCouncilhastakenthemeasuresnecessarytorestoreandmaintain
internationalpeaceandsecurity.
Senttime: 07/24/201601:26:43PM
FW:[SHOCKINGSIMPLYSHOCKINGARRESTTHEUSUALSUSPECTS!!]Fwd:ClintoncampaignblamesRussiaforleakedDNCemails
Subject: aboutSandersUK'sJeanetteK:IhaveracedmanyRussiansand[guesswhat]...[PLUS:PLEASANTSURPRISE]Twoaccuratestoriesabout
U...

Sent:Sunday,July24,201611:34AM
Subject:Fwd:[SHOCKINGSIMPLYSHOCKINGARRESTTHEUSUALSUSPECTS!!]Fwd:ClintoncampaignblamesRussiaforleaked
DNCemailsaboutSandersUK'sJeanetteK:IhaveracedmanyRussiansand[guesswhat]...[PLUS:PLEASANTSURPRISE]Two
accuratestoriesaboutU...
Subject:[SHOCKINGSIMPLYSHOCKINGARRESTTHEUSUALSUSPECTS!!]Fwd:Clintoncampaignblames
RussiaforleakedDNCemailsaboutSandersUK'sJeanetteK:IhaveracedmanyRussiansand[guesswhat]...[PLUS:
PLEASANTSURPRISE]TwoaccuratestoriesaboutUkraine[WarontheEasternFrontUS-UASeaBreezeExercises]
From:VRT
Subject:ClintoncampaignblamesRussiaforleakedDNCemailsaboutSanders[ED:MightWikileaksreallyleak
somethingfromtheRussians????NoWay!!C'ris..willbeatificationprocessesforAssangeandSnowdenbeputon
hold??Jeez.Whatistheworldcomingto??]
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/24/clinton-campaign-blames-russia-wikileaks-sanders-dnc-emails
Clinton campaign blames Russia for leaked DNC emails about

Sanders
Experts are telling us that Russian state actors hacked DNC and stole emails
Senator finds emails outrageous, but saves criticism for DNC chair and Trump
Democratic convention: fight for Americas soul moves to Philadelphia
Obama: Trumps Nato comments reveal lack of preparedness on foreign policy
Hillary Clintons campaign has accused Russia of meddling in the 2016 presidential election, saying its hackers
stole Democratic National Committee (DNC) emails and released them to foment disunity in the party and aid
Donald Trump.
Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said on Sunday that experts are telling us that Russian state actors
broke into the DNC, stole these emails, [and are] releasing these emails for the purpose of helping Donald
Trump.
I dont think its coincidental that these emails are being released on the eve of our convention here, he told
CNNs State of the Union, alluding to the partys four-day exercise in unification which is set to take place this
week in Philadelphia.
This isnt my assertion, Mook said. This is what experts are telling us.
In a statement, the Clinton campaign repeated the accusation: This is further evidence the Russian
government is trying to influence the outcome of the election.
Emails released by Wikileaks on Friday showed members of the DNC actively trading ideas for how to
undercut the campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders, who proved a resilient adversary to Clinton in the
Democratic primary. In one email, a staffer suggested the DNC spread a negative article about Sanders
supporters in another the DNCs chief financial officer suggested that questions about Sanders faith could
undermine his candidacy.
I think I read he is an atheist, the staffer wrote. This could make several points difference with my peeps.
My Southern Baptist peeps would draw a big difference between a Jew and an atheist.
Wikileaks, which did not disclose how it acquired the emails, has promised more releases. Earlier this year the
DNC and an independent cybersecurity firm said the partys email system had been breached by Russian
hackers, though a hacker by the moniker Guccifer 2.0 has also claimed to have stolen emails.
In June Florida congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the DNC chair, said the breach was a serious
incident and that the cybersecurity firm had moved as quickly as possible to kick out the intruders and
secure our network.
Late on Saturday, the DNC announced that Wasserman Schultz had been removed from the convention
program, according to CNN.
The DNCs chief financial officer, Brad Marshall, apologized on Saturday for his remarks in the released
emails, writing on Facebook: I deeply regret that my insensitive, emotional emails would cause embarrassment
to the DNC, the chairwoman, and all of the staffers who worked hard to make the primary a fair and open
process.
Also speaking to CNN on Sunday, Sanders said he found the emails outrageous, but said they were not a
great shock to me.
He said: I mean, theres no question to my mind, no question to any objective observers mind, the DNC was
supporting Hillary Clinton and Im not shocked by this.
Sanders also repeated a call he made months ago, in the wake of a brief lawsuit over data access and
questions of bias. I think she should resign, period, he told ABC.
I dont think she is qualified to be the chair of the DNC, he said, not just because of these emails, which
revealed the prejudice of the DNC, but also because we need a party that reaches out to working people and
young people. And I dont think her leadership style does that.
But the senator, who endorsed Clinton last month, declined to turn any anger towards her, saving it for Trump.
Sanders said he was proud of the concessions his campaign had won from Clinton on the Democratic
platform, and praised her vice-presidential pick, Tim Kaine, as an extremely bright guy, an extremely nice
guy.
What is most important is defeating the worst candidate for president that I have seen in my lifetime, he said.
I cant speak for 13 million people but I think most of my supporters understand Trump has got to be
defeated, we need to elect as many progressives as possible.
Sanders supporters represent a key voting bloc for Clinton, whose support has declined in recent polling. But
many of his supporters have expressed distrust of Clinton, and could elect to vote for a third-party candidate,
such as the Green partys Jill Stein.
The senator will speak at the convention on Monday night, and his team released a preview that said he would
not only attack Trump but speak about the future of the political revolution that he promised on the
campaign trail. Our campaign was about revitalizing American democracy, I want to see that incorporated into
the Democratic platform.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has claimed Russia does not meddle in other countries domestic affairs,
despite overwhelming evidence and the Kremlins admission that it has helped rebels in eastern Ukraine. Putin
insisted that he can work with Clinton or Trump. Russian, Chinese and American intelligence agencies
frequently blame each other for hacking attacks as part and parcel of their status as competing nations, though
the substance of those hacks are rarely dumped into the public domain.
Trumps campaign has indirectly fueled speculation that the Kremlin would prefer the businessman to Clinton
as the next president. His campaign stripped hawkish language of the Republican partys official stance toward
Russia, removing a proposal to give weapons to Ukraine in its continuing struggle with pro-Russia separatists.
The head of Trumps campaign, Paul Manafort, was formerly on the payroll of Ukrainian president Viktor
Yanukovych, who was ousted twice for his attempts to draw the country closer to the Kremlin.
Trump has suggested he would like to reconcile with Putin. Last week he said that as president he would not
honor treaties and defend Nato allies from Russia unless they had paid the US.
At rallies, he has repeatedly asked: Wouldnt it be nice if we could get along with Russia?
On Sunday, the Trump campaign rejected Mooks allegations, Manafort telling ABCs This Week they were
absurd and pure obfuscation on the part of the Clinton campaign.
What those emails show is that it was a clearly rigged system, and that Bernie Sanders never had a chance,
he said.
His son, Donald Trump Jr, appeared on CNNs State of the Union. They should be ashamed of themselves,
he said of the Clinton campaign. If we did that if my father did that, theyd have people calling for the
electric chair. It just goes to show you their exact moral compass. Theyll say anything to win this.
Trump himself used Twitter to pass comment, saying: Sorry folks, but Bernie Sanders is exhausted, just cant
go on any longer. He is trying to dismiss the new emails and DNC disrespect. Sad!
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Subject:JeanetteKwakye:IhaveracedmanyRussians,andwelcometheRiodopingban[ED:Oh!!No!!?!!Notthe
RUracers!!Coulditbe???JosefJosefovich..sayitain'tso!!!!]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/22/ban-russian-atheletes-rio-olympics
IhaveracedmanyRussians,andwelcometheRio
dopingban
JeanetteKwakye
Idontfeelsorryforthe68athleteswhoappealedagainsttheIAAFbanfromtheRioOlympicsIpityallthose
competitorswhowerecheatedoutofsuccess
Thedecisionbythecourtofarbitrationforsport(CAS)toupholdthebanonRussianathletes
attheRioOlympicscouldnothavecomeatabettertime.Thegamesarejusttwoweeks
away,andthebrutalityofthedecisionpalesincomparisonwiththepainfeltbythemany
athleteswhohavelostoutbecauseofdoping.
Idonotpitythe68Russianathleteswhoputtheappealin.Ipitytheathleteswhowere
cheatedoutofthesuccesstheydeserved,theathleteswholosttheirmomentonthepodium
aswellasthefinancialrewards,andhavesufferedfromthecontinualself-doubtthatthey
justwerentgoodenough.
Manyontheinternationalcircuitwillnotbesurprisedbyrecentfindingsrelatingtodoping
althoughtheymaybestaggeredbythescopeoftheprogramme.Ispentmycareersecond-
guessingmycompetitors,andsuppressingmyinstinctivedoubtsabouttheirnaturalabilities.
Thisbanisawelcomestepintherightdirection.
IracedmanyRussiansduringmycareer,onethingthatalwaysstuckoutformewasthehigh
turnoverofsprinters.Irarelyracedthesamegirlmorethanonceaseason.The4x100mteam
thatwoninBeijinghashadoneofitssprintersnamedinthereport.Iwaspartofthatrace,
andwillalwayswonderwhatcouldvebeen.
TheRussianathletesseemeddispensable,almostasiftherewasanotherathletereadyto
comeofftheproductionlineandreplacethemiftheydidntdothejobrequiredofthem.It
wasthatcontrollinganddismissiveelementoftheirgoverningbodythatmademethinkthat
dutyofcaretowardsathleteswaslowdownontheagenda.
Butthisisntyourstandarddopingscandal.Thistime,itfeelsdifferent.Acultureofcheating
hasbeenexposedthatrunsdeepwithinRussiansportlayersofdeceptionthatitsgoverning
bodiesweredesperatetokeepquietabout.Thereportsthathavecomeoutinthelasteight
monthsreadlikemoviescripts,withmissingurinesamples,lengthystatementsanda
whistleblowermarriedtoadopingofficialwhohasnowbeenallowedtocompeteundera
neutralflag.
TheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF)president,LordCoe,hassaid:
Itisourfederationsinstinctivedesiretoinclude,notexclude.Thatsentimentisromantic
notrealistic.Thesportneedstochange,anddecisionslikethisneedtobethecatalyst.
Advertisement
AfewhavepointedouthowunfairitisforthecleanRussianathleteswhowillnotbeallowed
tocompete.AndtheRussiansthemselveshavenotheldbackabouthowtheyfeel.The
OlympicpolevaultingchampionYelenaIsinbaeva,hastweetedheroutrage,callingtheban
thefuneralofathletics.
Theyshouldcarryontweetingtheiranger,infactevencreateahashtagbutdirectit
towardstheirgoverningbodies,nottheathleteswhocametocompeteonalevelplaying
field,orthefanswhohavecometowatch.BecauseitistheRussiangoverningbodieswho
haveletthemdown.Anditisthegoverningbodieswhoshouldexplainwhy55oftheir
athletesarecurrentlyontheIAAFbannedlist:threetimesmorethananyothernation.
IhavenoproblemwiththeIAAFofferingcleanathletesthechancetocompeteunderthe
Olympicflagasneutralsbutonlyiftheycanprovetheyarenotpartofthesystematic
dopingintheircountry.Sofar,80Russianathletesbelievethattheycanonlytwohavebeen
cleared.
Wehavealwaysknownitistheresponsibilityofathletestobeaccountableforwhatgoesinto
theirbodies.Fromcoughmedicinestoproteinshakes,IhadtoensurethatwhateverIwas
usingtohelpwithmytrainingwasnotlistedasprohibited.However,withdopingonthisscale
inRussia,manyoftheathletesimplicatedmaynothaveknownwhattheyweretaking,as
theyareworkingontheinstructionofcoachesandofficials.YuliyaStepanova,oneofthe
whistleblowers,said:Thecoacheschoseagirl,fedherpillsandthenshedbeoff.Why
didnttheseathletesaskquestions?
Thisisnoreasonforsympathy.ItgivesmemorereasontobelievetheInternationalOlympic
Committee(IOC)shouldfollowuptheCASrulingwithacompletebanacrossallsports.That
wouldbethestrongestmessagetheycouldsendoutagainstdoping.Thisscandalneedsto
betheturningpointfortheIOC,andlaythefoundationforfuturegenerationswhowatchand
competeattheOlympics,tohavetrustintheperformancestheywitness.
From:WD/Alt
Subject:[ED:PLEASANTSURPRISE]TwoaccuratestoriesaboutUkraine[WarontheEasternFrontUS-UASea
BreezeExercises]
CBS/APJuly24,2016,9:22AM
UkraineconflictwithRussian-
backedrebelsgetsdeadlier
14Photos
AUkrainianForcessoldierfiresaheavymachinegunduringabattlewithpro-RussianseparatistsatAvdeyevka,intheDonetskregionof
UkraineonJune25,2016.
ANATOLIISTEPANOV/AFP/GETTYIMAGES
9Comments
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MOSCOW-AspokesmanforUkraine'smilitaryoperationagainstseparatistrebelsinthecountry'seast
sayssixsoldiershavebeenkilledoverthepastday.
ThestatementbyOleksanderMotuzyanikonSundaycomesamidincreasingconcernaboutarecent
escalationinfightingbetweenUkrainianforcesandRussia-backedrebels.OnTuesday,Ukraine
reportedsevenofitssoldiershadbeenkilled.
TheDonetskPeople'sRepublic,oneoftwoself-proclaimedseparatistrepublicsintheeast,claimed
SundaythatUkrainianforceshadshelledpositionstheremorethan600timesinthepastday,the
RussiannewsagencyTassreported.
TheUnitedNationssaysmorethan9,400peoplehavebeenkilledsincetheconflictbrokeoutinApril
2014.
ProminentjournalistPavelSheremet,whodiedwhenhiscarwasbombedinUkraine,wasburied
SundayinhishometownofMinsk,Belarus.
Sheremet,whooncewasimprisonedinBelarus,whereindependentmediaareunderconsistent
pressurefromtheauthoritariangovernment,hadmovedtoUkrainetwoyearsagoafterseveralyearsin
Russia,seeingUkraineashavingamorefreemediaenvironment.
HeworkedforthenewswebsiteUkrainskaPravda,whichisnotedforinvestigativework,andremained
editorofanewswebsiteinBelarus.
AcarhewasdrivingwasblownupWednesdayintheUkrainiancapitalofKiev.Noarrestshavebeen
made.
AttendingthefuneralwasMustafaNayyem,aUkrainianparliamentmemberandjournalistwhosecall
forralliesinlate2013setoffthemassiveproteststhatledtoUkraine'spro-Moscowpresidentfleeingthe
countryinFebruary2014.
TheblastthatkilledSheremet"wasdirectedagainstthecountrythatwewanttobuild-open,free,
trustworthyandsmiling,"Nayyemsaid.
AUkrainianpilotwhospenttwoyearsinaRussianprisoncreatedacontroversyrecentlybysayingthat
reconciliationistheonlysolutiontotheongoingconflictineasternUkraine.
SpeakingonUkraine'sChannel5,NadiyaSavchenkosaidlateThursdayUkrainians"needtoaskfor
forgiveness"ortherewillneverbepeaceineasternUkraine.
TopUkrainianpoliticalfigureslashedoutFridayatSavchenkoovertheremarks.Savchenkoreturnedto
Ukrainetoahero'swelcomeinMayaspartofaprisonerswapaftershewascapturedbytherebelsin
June2014andputontrialinRussiaforinvolvementinthedeathsoftwojournalists.
2016CBSInteractiveInc.AllRightsReserved.Thismaterialmaynotbepublished,broadcast,rewritten,orredistributed.
TheAssociatedPresscontributedtothisreport.
15:02Jul.24,2016
Ukraine-US'SeaBreeze2016'drillsenteractive
phase
Thisyearmilitaryexercisesaresaidtobethelargestin
Ukraine-US'SeaBreeze2016'drills,2013(UNIANPhoto) thewholerangeofjointUkrainian-U.S.navalmaneuvers
Ukraine-US'SeaBreeze2016'drills,2013(UNIANPhoto)
Odesaheldtheopeningceremonylaunchingtheactive
phaseoftheUkrainian-USmilitaryexercisesSea
Breeze2016'.
49Facebook
Ukraine'sDefenceMinistryreports,theeventwas
Twitter attendedbyUkraine'sDeputyPrimeMinisterfor
EuropeanandEuro-AtlanticIntegrationIvannaKlympush-
0Google+
Tsintsadze,Ukraine'sDefenceMinisterStepanPoltorak,
Moldova'sDefenceMinisterAnatolSalaruand
Sendviaemail Ambassadorsofcountriesparticipatingintheexercise.
SrepanPoltoraksaid,Ukrainianservicemenstarttheir
practicaltrainingalongwiththeirAmericancounterparts
andmilitaryfrompartnerstatesstart.
ReadalsoSeaBreeze2016:Troopspracticelandingoperationandevacuationofwounded
"ThisyearthedrillstakeplaceunderRussia'songoingaggressionagainstUkraine-theaggressionwhichis
aimingtodestructtheexistingsystemofEuropeanandglobalsecurity.Wearewitnessinganunprecedented
growthinsecuritythreatsinEurope.ThatiswhytheSeaBreeze2016'drillsareourjointcontributionto
securingstabilityandsecurityintheBlackSearegion,"saidPoltorak.
608xX
Theministersaid,theoutbreakofterroristattacks,radicalandseparatistmovementsthreatensnotonlyUkraine,
butalsoNATO'smembers,EuropeandtheBlackSearegioninparticular.
"TheWarsawSummitclearlydefinedchallengesrecentlyfacedbyAlliance'smembersandpartners,and
identifiedwaystocounterexistingthreats.Oneofkeyobjectivesistostrengthensecuritymeasuresonthe
southernflankofEurope,andintheBlackSea,"saidPoltorak.
WatchalsoUkrainianandUSsoldierscarryoutmanoeuversinMykolaivregion
Healsostressedtheimportanceofthisyear'smilitaryexercisesintermsofimprovingthecapacityofUkraine's
armyanditsnavalcomponent,deepeninginteroperabilitywiththearmedforcesofUkraine'skeypartnersand
allies.
DefenceMinistersaidthatduringtheactivephase,soldierswillpracticeawiderangeofmarine,coastalandair
operations.HebelievesthatthecurrenttrainingwillalsoenhancethecombatcapabilityofUkraine'sNavy.
608xX
PoltorakexpressedhisgratitudetoUSpartners,anddefenceagenciesofallparticipatingcountriesfortheirhelp
inorganizingthisyear'sexercises.
ReadalsoPoroshenkoapprovesNATOmilitaryexercisesinUkrainenextyear
TheUkrainian-USexercises'SeaBreeze2016'startedon18July.ThedrillstakeplaceinOdesaandMykolaiv
regionsaswellasinthenorth-westernpartoftheBlacksea.
The2016marinecomponentincludes26vessels,20planesandhelicopters,aswellas50militaryequipment
unitsand4,000soldiers.ExceptfortheUkrainianandAmericannavy,representativesof14othercountriesare
takingpartinthemanoeuvers.
TheexerciseswilllastuntilJuly30.
Senttime: 07/22/201604:03:09AM
Incar.IwouldifIwassurewhatpropsare.
WhitmoreandandIgothertocomeontheprogramtodayduetotheconflicttowhichIamheaded.
SentfrommyiPhone
You'renotgoingtogivepropsforgivingpropstoOrlova?
Yes!
IamrathercertainthathadCharapbeenaroundinthe90s,he'shavebeenoneofthosefolksarguinga)russia's
pathtodemocracyandb)it'snotnearlyasbadthereassomefolkssay.
HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarket
democracyattheendofthe20thcentury.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeand
pessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-
Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,and
widespreadpoliticalandeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClinton
administrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationshipand"losing"Russia.
Oneofmygripes:peoplelikeCharapreferrring(hemusthavereaditsomewhere)to"thecollapse/disasterofthe
90s"Well,Iwasthereanditwasfarmorwecompliactedthanthat.
Article5
ThePartiesagreethatanarmedattackagainstoneormoreoftheminEuropeorNorthAmerica
shallbeconsideredanattackagainstthemallandconsequentlytheyagreethat,ifsuchanarmed
attackoccurs,eachofthem,inexerciseoftherightofindividualorcollectiveself-defence
recognisedbyArticle51oftheCharteroftheUnitedNations,willassistthePartyorPartiesso
attackedbytakingforthwith,individuallyandinconcertwiththeotherParties,suchactionasit
deemsnecessary,includingtheuseofarmedforce,torestoreandmaintainthesecurityofthe
NorthAtlanticarea.
Anysucharmedattackandallmeasurestakenasaresultthereofshallimmediatelybereported
totheSecurityCouncil.SuchmeasuresshallbeterminatedwhentheSecurityCouncilhastaken
themeasuresnecessarytorestoreandmaintaininternationalpeaceandsecurity.
Senttime: 07/22/201602:49:44AM
Yes!
IamrathercertainthathadCharapbeenaroundinthe90s,he'shavebeenoneofthosefolksarguinga)russia'spathto
democracyandb)it'snotnearlyasbadthereassomefolkssay.
HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyat
theendofthe20thcentury.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmost
contemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStatesaboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.Focusingonlurid
accountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpoliticalandeconomicdisarray,politicians
andpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationshipand"losing"
Russia.
Oneofmygripes:peoplelikeCharapreferrring(hemusthavereaditsomewhere)to"thecollapse/disasterofthe90s"Well,I
wasthereanditwasfarmorwecompliactedthanthat.
Article5
ThePartiesagreethatanarmedattackagainstoneormoreoftheminEuropeorNorthAmericashallbe
consideredanattackagainstthemallandconsequentlytheyagreethat,ifsuchanarmedattackoccurs,each
ofthem,inexerciseoftherightofindividualorcollectiveself-defencerecognisedbyArticle51oftheCharterof
theUnitedNations,willassistthePartyorPartiessoattackedbytakingforthwith,individuallyandinconcert
withtheotherParties,suchactionasitdeemsnecessary,includingtheuseofarmedforce,torestoreand
maintainthesecurityoftheNorthAtlanticarea.
AnysucharmedattackandallmeasurestakenasaresultthereofshallimmediatelybereportedtotheSecurity
Council.SuchmeasuresshallbeterminatedwhentheSecurityCouncilhastakenthemeasuresnecessaryto
restoreandmaintaininternationalpeaceandsecurity.
Senttime: 07/20/201609:37:33AM
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceoftheROC.
Subject: [JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Attachments: GOP2016platformDRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_1468872234.pdf
Subject:Fwd:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceofthe
ROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsinthe
serviceoftheROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"
themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORESTORIES.[BOPO]TroublestotheRight(US),TroublestotheLeft(CA)----
StandingintheMiddlewithU[A]!!!
-----------Forwardedmessage----------
Subject:Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)
TheNewYorkTimes(3)
SevenUkrainianSoldiersKilledinEasternRegionsAmidSurgeinViolence
ByREUTERSJULY19,2016,7:48A.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory
KIEVSevenUkrainiantroopswerekilledinthepast24hoursduringfightingwithpro-Russianseparatists,makingJulythe
deadliestmonthfortheUkrainianmilitaryinnearlyayearafterasharpincreaseinviolence.
Another14werewounded,amilitaryspokesmansaid.ClashesinUkraine'seasternregionshavesurgedinspiteofan18-month-
old'Minsk'ceasefiredeal.Internationalmonitorshaveexpresseduneaseatrecentescalation.

UkrainianmilitaryspokesmanAndriyLysenkosaidseparatistshadbeenfiringhigh-calibermortarsatgovernmentpositions,naming
therebel-controlledtownofHorlivkaandtheoutskirtsofrebel-heldLuhanskasparticularhotspots.
"Onaverageeveryattacklastsforatleastthirtyminutesandcanlastforuptotwohours.That'showitwasyesterday,"Lysenko
said,withoutgivingdetailsonhowthesoldierswerekilled.
MeanwhileseparatistofficialsaccusedUkrainiantroopsofintensifyingshellingonrebel-heldterritory,separatistnewssiteDAN
reported.
TheMinskagreementwasmeanttostopthefighting,whichhaskilledover9,400sinceApril2014,butmanyofthedeal'spoints-
includingthecompletewithdrawalheavyweaponsfromthefrontline-haveyettobefullyimplemented.
OnJuly12,thechiefmonitoroftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,expresseduneaseoverthe
recentsharpincreaseinfighting.
Hedrewattentiontothecontinuedthreattocivilianlife,highlightingtherecentdeathsintwoseparateincidentsinDonetskregion
offiveyoungboys,threeofthembrothers.
(ReportingbyNataliaZinetsandAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyRaissaKasolowsky)
RussiaSaysCatchesOSCEEmployeeSpyingforUkraine
ByREUTERSJULY18,2016,1:39P.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWRussia'sFSBsecurityservicesaidonMondayithadcaughtanemployeeoftheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-
operationinEuropespyingforUkrainebypassingonsensitivemilitaryinformationaboutpro-Kremlinseparatists.
TheOSCEismonitoringafragileceasefireineasternUkrainewherepro-RussianseparatistsandUkrainiangovernmentforcesstill
regularlyexchangefire.
Itsopinioncounts,notleastbecauseGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelhassaidshewantsRussiatodomoretoresolvethecrisis
beforetheEuropeanUnionconsiderswhethertoliftsanctionsimposedonMoscowoveritsactionsinUkraine.
TheFSBsaidinastatementithadclearevidencethatUkraine'sSBUintelligenceservicewasillegallyusingtheOSCEtogather
militaryinformation.
ItsaidanOSCEtranslator,ArtyomShestakov,aUkrainiannational,hadbeenrecruitedbytheSBUandhadpassedon
informationaboutthemovementsofmilitaryconvoys,troopnumbers,andthemobilephonenumbersofmilitarycommanders.
Inlate2015,itsaidhehadobtainedinformationaboutalocalpro-RussianCossackleaderwhowaslaterkilledbytheUkrainian
intelligenceservices.
ShestakovhadbeendetainedonRussiansoil,theFSBsaid,andhadconfessedtospying.HewasallowedtoreturntoUkraine
becausetheFSBsaidhisactionshadnotharmedRussia'sownnationalsecurity,butwasbannedfromenteringRussia,itsaid.
TheSBUdeclinedtocomment.
TheOSCE'sSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraineissuedastatementviasocialmedia,sayingitwasabletoconfirmthatoneof
itslocalemployeesineasternUkrainewastemporarilyoutofreachwhileonleave.
Itsaiditknewwherehewasandthathewassafe.Itwasfornowunabletoprovidefurtherdetails,itsaid.
(ReportingbyDmitrySolovyovinMOSCOWandNatalyaZinetsinKIEVEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
TheNewYorkTimes
RussianImagesofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17WereAltered,ReportFinds
ByANDREWE.KRAMERJULY15,2016(July16printedition)
MOSCOWAgroupofarmscontrolresearchershavedeterminedthattwoimagesreleasedbytheRussiangovernment,
ostensiblytohelpclarifywhyacivilianairlinerwasshotdowntwoyearsago,weredigitallyalteredusingPhotoshopbeforebeing
postedonline.
PartsofoneRussianmilitarysatelliteimagesimplyvanished,accordingtoresearchersattheMiddleburyInstituteforInternational
StudiesatMonterey,inCalifornia,behindasuspect-lookingcloud.
Inanotherimage,twochunky,trackedantiaircraftweaponsappearinsharperfocusthanthesurroundinglandscape,the
researcherssaidinthereportpostedonlineonFriday.
Itiscleartheimageshavebeenmodifiedoraltered,theresearcherssaid,afterrunningthephotographsthroughasuiteof
professionalsoftwareusedtodetectfakedigitalpictures,incourtproceedingsinEurope.
ThefindingishardlythefirsttodebunkimportantelementsoftheRussiangovernmentsnarrativeofwhoshotdownMalaysia
AirlinesFlight17onJuly17,2014,killingall298peopleaboard,intheworstatrocityofthewarinUkraine.
Atthetime,Russiasstatenewsagency,RIA,initiallyreportedthatRussian-backedseparatistshadshotdownaUkrainianmilitary
aircraft,butquicklybacktrackedonceitbecameclearacivilianairlinerhadbeenbroughtdown.
Russianstatetelevisiondevotedconsiderableairtimetoconspiracytheories,includingassertionsthattheUkrainiansweretryingto
shootdownPresidentVladimirV.Putinsplane,thattheplanehadbeenfilledwithdeadbodiesandcrashedinanelaborateruseto
embarrassRussia,orthattheCentralIntelligenceAgencywasbehindtheattack.
UkraineandWesterngovernmentssaythatnoneofthisistrue,andthatactive-dutyRussiansoldiersbackingtherebelsfiredonthe
airliner,perhapsmistakingitforamilitaryaircraft,asitflewfromAmsterdamtoKualaLumpur,theMalaysiancapital.
ThephotographswerepublishedonthewebsitesoftheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairsandMinistryofDefensejustdaysafter
thecrash.TheywerepresentedashavingbeentakenbyoneormoreRussianspysatellitesonJuly17,2014,aswarragedin
easternUkraine.
TheRussianpresentationassertedthataccordingtoourinformationonthedayoftheaccidenttheUkrainianarmedforces
deployedthreetofourartillerybattalionsofBuk-M1missiles,andprovidedtwosatelliteimagestosupporttheclaim.
Theanti-tamperingsoftware,though,foundthatacloudobscuringaportionofoneimagehadatonepointbeensavedusinga
differentformofdatacompressionfromtherestofthepicture.
Intheotherphotograph,showingapairofrocketlaunchersinafieldwitharoadloopingthroughit,thelaunchersareinexplicably
insharperfocusthanthesurroundingfield,accordingtothereport.AlongwithPhotoshop,otherprogramsmayalsohavebeen
used,theresearcherssaid.
Itshardtobecertainaboutwhattheyhavedone,JeffreyLewis,oneofthereportsauthors,saidofthemanipulationofthe
images.Itspossibletheyenhancedthemissilelaunchersthatwerethereorthattheycutandpastedthemin.
Theresearchersfocusonusingopen-sourceinformationtostudynuclearnonproliferation.Theyoriginallyboughtthespecialized
softwaretoanalyzeNorthKoreanpropagandaphotographs,buthavefoundotherusesforit.
Itswonderfulyoucanseewhotouchesuptheirweddingphotos,Mr.Lewissaid.Itturnsoutpeopletouchupphotosquite
alot.
AskedonFridayabouttheallegations,theRussianDefenseMinistrysaiditwouldrequirethreedaystorespond.TheMinistryof
ForeignAffairsreferredquestionstotheMinistryofDefense.

Earlier,Bellingcat,acitizen-journalismgroupusingopen-sourceinformationlikesocialmediapoststoanalyzeconflicts,had
identifiedthecloudyphotographaslikelyalteredtoobscurethedateitwastaken.
Anythingshortoftheoriginalandunalteredimages,giventhemanipulationsevidentintheslidesreleasedonline,willnaturallygive
risetoconcernsRussiadeliberatelyfabricatedevidencetoevadelegalresponsibilityforthedeathsofthepassengersandcrew,
theMontereygroupsaidinitsstudy.
TheWashingtonPost
TrumpcampaigngutsGOPsanti-RussiastanceonUkraine
ByJoshRogin
Opinions
July18at12:21PMFollow@joshrogin
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-campaign-guts-gops-anti-russia-stance-on-
ukraine/2016/07/18/98adb3b0-4cf3-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-
a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&tid=a_inl
TheTrumpcampaignworkedbehindthesceneslastweektomakesurethenewRepublicanplatformwontcallforgiving
weaponstoUkrainetofightRussianandrebelforces,contradictingtheviewofalmostallRepublicanforeignpolicyleadersin
Washington.
Throughoutthecampaign,TrumphasbeendismissiveofcallsforsupportingtheUkrainegovernmentasitfightsanongoing
Russian-ledintervention.Trumpscampaignchairman,PaulManafort,workedasalobbyistfortheRussian-backedformer
UkrainianpresidentViktorYanukovychformorethanadecade.
Still,RepublicandelegatesatlastweeksnationalsecuritycommitteeplatformmeetinginClevelandweresurprisedwhenthe
TrumpcampaignorchestratedasetofeventstomakesurethattheGOPwouldnotpledgetogiveUkrainetheweaponsithas
beenaskingforfromtheUnitedStates.
Insidethemeeting,DianaDenman,aplatformcommitteememberfromTexaswhowasaTedCruzsupporter,proposeda
platformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,increasingaidforUkraineand
providinglethaldefensiveweaponstotheUkrainianmilitary.
Today,thepost-ColdWaridealofaEuropewholeandfreeisbeingseverelytestedbyRussiasongoingmilitaryaggressionin
Ukraine,theamendmentread.TheUkrainianpeopledeserveouradmirationandsupportintheirstruggle.
Trumpstaffersintheroom,whoarenotdelegatesbutaretheretooverseetheprocess,intervened.Byworkingwithpro-Trump
delegates,theywereabletogettheissuetabledwhiletheydevisedamethodtorollbackthelanguage.
Onthesideline,DenmantriedtopersuadetheTrumpstaffersnottochangethelanguage,butfailed.Iwastroubledwhentheyput
asidemyamendmentandthenwatereditdown,Denmantoldme.Isaid,Whatisyourproblemwithacountrythatwantsto
remainfree?Itseemslikeasimplething.
Finally,TrumpstafferswroteanamendmenttoDenmansamendmentthatstrippedouttheplatformscallforprovidinglethal
defensiveweaponsandreplaceditwithsofterlanguagecallingforappropriateassistance.
Thatamendmentwasvotedonandpassed.WhentheRepublicanPartyreleasesitsplatformMonday,theofficialRepublicanparty
positiononarmsforUkrainewillbeatoddswithalmostallthepartysnationalsecurityleaders.
ThisisanotherexampleofTrumpbeingoutofstepwithGOPleadershipandthemainstreaminawaythatshowshewouldbe
dangerousforAmericaandtheworld,saidRachelHoff,anotherplatformcommitteememberwhowasintheroom.
Ofcourse,TrumpisnottheonlypoliticiantoopposesendinglethalweaponstoUkraine.PresidentObamadecidednotto
authorizeit,despiterecommendationstodosofromhistopEuropeofficialsintheStateDepartmentandthemilitary.TheUnited
StateshasprovidedUkrainewithnon-lethalequipmentandaid.
TrumpsviewofRussiahasalwaysbeenfriendlierthanmostRepublicans.HessaidhewouldgetalongverywellwithVladimir
PutinandcalleditagreathonorwhenPutinpraisedhim.TrumphasdonealotofbusinessinRussiaandhasbeentraveling
theresince1987.LastAugust,hesaidofUkrainejoiningNATO,Iwouldntcare.HetraveledthereinSeptember,andhetold
UkrainianstheirwarisreallyaproblemthataffectsEuropealotmorethanitaffectsus.
ForTrump,thebiggestthreattoEuropeisnotRussia,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwithhisthinking.HebelievestheUnitedStates
shouldfocusonhelpingEuropefightIslamistterrorismandopenborders,notconfrontingPutin.Hehascalledforareductionof
theU.S.commitmenttoNATO.HesimplydoesntseeRussiaasadangerousthreat.
ForDenman,theTrumpcampaignsactionsbetrayedtheU.S.commitmenttosupportingstrugglingdemocraciesaroundtheworld,
whichsheconsidersacoreRepublicanvalue.
TheUkrainianpeoplearetryingtocomeoutofthepastandstayfree.Weowetothosewhoarefightingforfreedomstilltogive
themahelpinghand,shesaid.
ImverypassionateandsupportiveoftheReaganforeignpolicyofpeacethroughstrength.
TrumptooofteninvokesRonaldReaganwhentalkingaboutAmericasroleintheworld.ButalthoughReagannegotiatedwiththe
SovietUnion,healsostooduptoRussianaggressioninEuropeanddefendeddemocraticprinciplesabroad.
Whentheplatformcomesout,RepublicanswillseehowfarfromtheReagandoctrinetheirpartyhasdrifted,thankstoTrump.
Forbes
Trump,DeferringToPutin,DeletedGOPPlatform'sCallToSupplyUkraineWithLethalDefensiveWeapons
PaulRoderickGregory
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/07/18/trump-deferring-to-putin-deleted-gop-platforms-call-to-supply-
ukraine-with-lethal-defensive-weapons/#1f440a299d32
Accordingtomultipleaccounts,theTrumpcampaignhassuccessfullyworkedbehindthescenestomakesurethenewRepublican
platformwouldnotpledgethelethaldefensiveweaponsUkrainehasbeenpleadingforfromtheUnitedStates.Trumpsforces
havetabledaplatformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,andhavesubstituted
appropriateassistanceforprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainesmilitary.Removingsanctionsandblockinglethal
militaryassistancetoUkrainearethetwoprimarygoalsofPutinsforeignpolicy.TheRepublicanplatformishandingthosegoalsto
Putinonagoldenplatter.
DespiteCongressionalapproval,theObamaadministrationhasnotsuppliedUkrainewithlethaldefensiveweaponsonthefoolish
groundsthatUkrainecannotdefeattheRussianmilitaryandthattheweaponscouldfallintothewronghands.Ofcourse,Ukraines
armycannotdefeatRussiabutanupgradedmilitarycouldimposelossesonRussiathatwoulddiscouragefurtherincursions.
RussiaswaragainstUkraineisararecaseswhereweaponswilldefinitelynotfallintothewronghands.TheUkrainianpeople,
startingfromzero,havebuiltanarmythathaslimitedRussianoccupationtopartsoftheDonbasregion.UnlikeSyriaorLibya,we
knowwhothegoodguysare.UkrainewillnothandovermoderncommunicationsgearandantitankweaponstoRussiaorthird
parties.Theyneedthemfortheirownnationalsurvival.
Inanearlieressay,IgaveninereasonswhyfellowconservativesshouldvoteforDonaldTrump,amongthemSupremeCourt
nominations,Clintonspropensitytolie,thefree-riderNATOproblem,TrumpsAmericafirstversusHillaryscitizenofthe
worldforeignpolicy,andhisunderstandingofAmericasdisenchantmentwithpoliticsasusual.Mysupportwasnotwithout
reservations.AssomeonewhofollowstheKremlinsperfidyclosely,TrumpsoffhandpraiseofPutinandhisapparentlackof
concernovertheCrimeanannexation,theinvasionofUkraine,andPutinssalvagingoftheAssadregimethroughmilitary
interventionpromptedmetowriteSevenWarningstoDonaldTrumpaboutVladimirPutin,amongthem:
Putinstarted(withoutcause)awaragainstUkrainethathaskilledmorethan10,000,wounded25,000,andmisplacedoneanda
halfmillion.SofarPutinhassufferednoconsequences,althoughhe,forthefirsttimeinpostwarhistory,alterednationalboundaries
byforce.
PutinhasdeclaredtheUnitedStatesasenemynumberonesincehisFebruary2007speechinMunich.HowwillTrumpgetalong
verywellwithanegotiatingpartner,whoseregimesveryexistencerequirestheU.S.asRussiasmajorenemy?
Putinliespubliclyandrepeatedlyaboutthemostimportantpoliticalmatters,suchastherearenoRussiantroopsinUkraine,that
theCrimeanannexationwasaspontaneousactoftheCrimeanpeople,andthataUkrainianfightershotdownMH17.Trump
complainsthatHillaryisaserialliaryethebelieveshecannegotiatewitharogueleaderwholieswithouthesitationaboutmatters
involvingthelivesofthousandsorhundredsofthousands.
PutinrunsacriminalkleptocracythatnotonlystolethenationalwealthbutlikelykilledhundredsofRussiansinpolitically-motivated
apartmentbombingsandispresumedtohaveorderedanumberofpoliticalassassinations.UnderPutin,Russiaisinthetoplistof
journalistskilledforpoliticalmotives.
Trumptoutshisskillsasasavvynegotiator,whocansizeuphisopponents.IfTrumpletsoffPutinforhiscrimesand
misadventures,herunstheriskofplayingthedupeasdidformerChancellorGerhardSchroederofGermany(Putinsstoogeon
Gazpromsboard),GeorgeW.Bush(wholookedintohissoul),andBarackObamaandHillaryClinton(Russianresetandthe
Syrianfiasco).TrumpsurelydoesnotwishtojointheseusefulfoolsoftheKremlin,butheseemsontheverge.
DonaldTrumpwillwinthepresidencyifhecomesacrossasastrongleaderbothathomeandabroad.Themostdirecttestsofhis
projectionofstrengthabroadwillbehisfightagainstterrorismandhiswillingnesstostanduptoPutin.Heseemstobefailinginthe
lattercase.
Trumphasboastedthatagoodnegotiatordoesnotsaywhatheisnotgoingtodoinadvance.Removingdefensivelethalweapons
toUkrainefromtheplatformdoesjustthat.Itisasignofaweaknegotiator.TheeyesofthenationshouldbeonarmsforUkraine
astheRepublicanconventionunfolds.IfTrumpsendsthewrongsignal,heriskshiscredentialsasastrongleader.
AtlanticCouncil(2)
UkraineNeedstoAbandonitsSovietThinkingOnceandforAll
July18,2016
ByBasilA.Kalymon
UkrainesreformeffortscontinuetosputteronwithoutanytransformativeresultsmorethantwoyearsafterformerPresident
ViktorYanukovychfledtoMoscow.Theeconomysbasicproblemshavenotyetbeenaddressed.Itisstillboggeddowninits
Sovietpast,withpopulistforcesmakingillusorypromisesthatappealtomanyvotersSoviet-eramentality.Theresultiscorruption,
inefficiency,alackofinvestmentandinnovation,budgetarystress,inflation,andeconomicstagnation.
Inordertoexperiencetransformativegrowthandprosperity,Ukrainemustradicallybreakwiththepastandthecurrentpopulist
mentalityandembracefreemarketeconomicpolicies.Suchpoliciesareatthebaseofallofthesuccessfultransformationsthat
haveoccurredinpost-communistsocieties.Inessence,whatisrequiredisarecognitionofthestateslimitedroleandanagreement
thatindividualresponsibilityandmarketforceswillguidetheeconomy.
Thisapproachwouldrequiredramaticchangestomanyoftheeconomysfundamentalsystems.
ReadMore
HowUkraineCanWintheInformationWarinaFactFreeWorld
July18,2016
ByPeterDickinson
Whatmediaoutletsdoyoutrust?FromtheBrexitreferendumandtheUSpresidentialracetoRussiasinformationwaron
Ukraine,itisbecomingincreasinglyclearthatwenowliveinafact-freeworldwhereemotionsreignsupremeandtruthisintheeye
ofthebeholder.
Thistrendfirstbecameapparentaroundthetimeofthe2003Iraqwar.Themainstreammediawasdirectlycomplicitinsomeof
themisinformationissuedduringthelead-uptotheUS-ledinvasion,shatteringpublictrustinmanyofthemostrespectedproviders
ofinformation.Meanwhile,theconspiracytheorysubculturepromotedbytheinternethasplayedanequallydevastatingrolein
underminingthesanctityoffacts.Today,counterculturewebsiteshavemovedinfromthefringestocompetewithlegacybrands,
whilemanyoftheleadingcurrentaffairsprogramsonTVare,literally,comedyshows.
ReadMore
Subject:CheckoutUKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPat
To:[email protected],[email protected],[email protected]
UKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPatriarchate
Subject:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
RussiasFederalSecurityService(FSB)havedetainedseveralemployeesoftheMoscowdepartmentof
theRussianInvestigativeCommittee,includingdeputyheadDenisNIKANDROVTheFSBbegana
searchofthecommitteesMoscowofficesinconnectionwiththecaseagainstnotoriouscrimeboss
ZakharyKALASHOV,orSHAKROMolodoi.
And:MK.rudiscussesthearrestofNiklandrovandtwootherhigh-rankingSKR
officials:http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1478102/
And:IntheKREMLINtheyarepermittinganinvestigationoftheparticipationoftheFSBinthe
[Olympic]DOPINGSCANDAL,http://newsru.com/russia/19jul2016/doping_print.html
And:MichaelISIKOFF,ChiefInvestigativeCorrespondent,YahooNews,TRUMPsfavoritegeneral
[MichaelFLYNN]leadscrowd[atRepublicanConvention]inanti-Hillarychant:Lockher
up,yahoo.com/news.7/18
But[Flynns]speechcameonadaywhenFlynnfacednewquestionsaboutsomeofhismore
controversialviewsaswellashisrelationshipwithaRussianTVStation[RT]thatservesasa
PROPAGANDAARMofPutinsgovernment.InaninterviewwithYahooNewsearlierintheday,Flynn
appearedtoacknowledgeforthefirsttimethathewasPAIDtoflytoMoscowlastDecemberandspeak
ataneventcelebratingthe10thanniversaryofRT,theRussianTVchannelthatregularlypromotesthe
Kremlinline
And:17-pageinterviewwithNatalyaPOKLONSKAYA,thePutiniteProcuratorof
CRIMEA:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73893.html?print=1
And:SevenUkrainiansoldiersKILLEDinclasheswithpro-Russianseparatists,themsocowtimes.com,
7/19
TROUBLESONTHERIGHT(US),TROUBLESONTHELEFT(CA).STANDINGINTHE
MIDDLEWITHU!!![SEEFURTHER]
From:BorysPotapenko<[email protected]>
Subject:ReferencestoUkraineinGOP2016Platform[TheNewDTVersion]
To:
Intheinternationalarena,aweakAdministrationhasinvitedaggression.TheresultsoftheAdministrationsunilateralapproachto
disarmamentarealreadyclear:AnemboldenedChinaintheSouthChinaSea,aresurgentRussiaoccupyingpartsofUkraineand
threateningneighborsfromtheBaltictotheCaucasus,andanaggressiveIslamistterrornetworkintheMiddleEast.Wesupport
maintainingand,ifwarranted,increasingsanctions,togetherwithourallies,againstRussiaunlessanduntilUkrainessovereignty
andterritorialintegrityarefullyrestored.WealsosupportprovidingappropriateassistancetothearmedforcesofUkraine
andgreatercoordinationwithNATOdefenseplanning.[??]AllouradversariesheardthemessageintheAdministrations
cutbacks:Americaisweakerandretreating.Concomitantly,wehonor,support,andthankalllawenforcement,firstresponders,
andemergencypersonnelfortheirservice.

ForthepeopleofRussia,weaffirmourrespectandourdeterminationtomaintainafriendshipbeyondthereachofthosewhowish
todivideus.Wehavecommonimperatives:Endingterrorism,combatingnuclearproliferation,promotingtrade,andmore.Wealso
haveacommonproblem:Thecontinuingerosionofpersonallibertyandfundamentalrightsunderthecurrentofficialsinthe
Kremlin.Repressiveathomeandrecklessabroad,theirpoliciesimperilthenationswhichregainedtheirself-determinationupon
thecollapseoftheSovietUnion.WewillmeetthereturnofRussianbelligerencewiththesameresolvethatledtothecollapseof
theSovietUnion.WewillnotacceptanyterritorialchangeinEasternEuropeimposedbyforce,inUkraine,Georgia,or
elsewhere,andwilluseallappropriateconstitutionalmeasurestobringtojusticethepractitionersofaggressionand
assassination.[??]WeurgegreaterattentioninU.S.diplomacy,trade,andstrategicplanning,tothenationsofEurasia,formerly
partsoftheSovietEmpire.Caughtbetweentheirtwoauthoritarianneighbors,theirpathtowarddemocraticinstitutionshasbeen
uncertain.WeurgeourgovernmentandouralliestoworktowardtheintegrationoftheCentralAsianrepublicsintotheglobal
economythroughforeigninvestment,whichcanbringwithitmarketandpoliticalreformsandafirmerestablishmentoftheruleof
law.Thosedevelopmentswillnotonlyimprovethelivingconditionsthroughoutthatvastareabutarelikelytoreducethelureofthe
radicalideologiesthatalreadythreatentheregion.
[SEEFULLGOPPLATFORMATTACHED]
Subject:Doesordoesn'tTrudeaugetit???
To:
SomepeoplethinkTrudeauDOESNOTGETIT!!!!CanadaalreadystoppedsharinginfowithUkraine'smilitaryandisnot
extendingassistancewithmilitarytraining,etc.metc.(Seealsothelistofcancelledmilitarycooperationassuppliedbythe
Conservativeoppositionthatfollowsthearticleandisattached.)
AtthesametimeleadersoftheCanadianUkrainiancommunitycontinuetosignthepraisesoftheTrudeaugovernment(article
follows).
Opinion:InUkraine,JustinTrudeaushowedhegetsit
ALEXANDRACHYCZIJ,SPECIALTOMONTREALGAZETTE
MorefromAlexandraChyczij,SpecialtoMontrealGazette
Publishedon:July18,2016|LastUpdated:July18,20162:25PMEDT
CanadianPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeauandhisson,Xavierpaytheirrespectstothevictimsofthe1932-1933great
famineattheHolodomorfaminememorialinKyiv,Ukraine,onJuly11,2016ANATOLIISTEPANOV/AFP/GETTY
IMAGES
AsaCanadianwhoseparentssufferedunderNaziandSoviettyrannyinUkraine,Iamamongthemostgratefulofcitizensforthe
asylumandsecondchancethiscountryofferedthem.Privilegedbyhavingbeenincludedasamemberoftheofficialdelegation
accompanyingPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeautoUkrainelastweekIwasstruckwithhowmuchtheprimeministerunderstands
aboutwhatthelandofmyancestorsenduredandwhatUkrainehopestoonedaybecome.
Everywherehewent,theprimeministersolemnlyrememberedUkrainespast.Helaidawreathatthememorialcomplexrecalling
themanymillionsofvictimsofthegenocidalGreatFamineof1932-33inSovietUkraine,theHolodomor.Herecalledthemillions
ofUkrainianswhofoughtanddiedfortheircountryduringtheSecondWorldWar,attheTomboftheUnknownSoldier.Andhe
paidhisrespectstothevictimsoftheNazisatBabynYar.
Fittingly,TrudeaualsodirectedattentiontotodaysUkraine.TheCanadaUkraineFreeTradeAgreementwassignedbyminister
ofInternationalTrade,ChrystiaFreeland,confirmingourcountrysgrowingeconomictieswithUkraine.Andhevisitedwithour
soldierswhoareengagedintrainingofUkrainessoldiersthroughOperationUnifier.CanadiansoldiersareenhancingUkraines
abilitiestodefenditselfevenasadditionaltroopsdeploytoLatviatoreassureourNATOalliesofCanadasreliability.
ButwhatwasmoreremarkablewashowTrudeauengagedwithUkrainesfuture.Athisinitiative,ameetingwasarrangedinKyiv
July11bringingtogethersomeofthemostdynamicandcourageousleadersofchangeinUkraine.Iwitnessedhowtheseyoung
Ukrainians,allofthemEnglish-speaking,andincludingpolicechiefs,physicians,investigativereporters,parliamentarians,anti-
corruptionwarriorsandLGBTQactivists,spokewiththeprimeminister.Theymadeitcleartheyallshareonebasicgoal,tosee
UkraineresumeitsrightfulplaceinEurope.Collectively,thesewomenandmenareexamplesofwhatUkrainesnextgeneration
advocatesfor:humanrights,freedomofspeechandassociation,theruleoflawanddemocracy.
TheprimeministerspokewithKhatiaDekanoidze,chiefoftheUkrainianNationalPolice,awomanintentonreformingaonce-
notoriouslycorruptforce.SheisbeingablyassistedbyCanadasownNataliaShuster,aninspectorwiththeMontrealpolice,in
UkraineundertheCanadianPolicingAgreement.ThentherewasSvitlanaZalishchuk,ajournalistandUkrainianparliamentarian,a
determinedcampaigneragainstcensorshipandastrongadvocateforpoliticalreform.AnotherwomanpresentwasDaria
Kaleniuk,executivedirectoroftheAnti-CorruptionActionCentre,anexpertinstolenassetrecoveryandanti-moneylaundering.
NotallofthosespeakingwithTrudeauwere,ofcourse,Ukrainianbybirthornationality.Ukraineistodayanincreasinglyinclusive
society,wherecitizenshipisbasednotononesethnic,religious,orracialheritage,butonengagementinthebuildingofaliberal-
democraticcommunity.Notsurprisingly,oneofthemostprominentUkrainiancitizenstodayisMustafaNayyem,borninKabul,a
journalistandmemberoftheVerkhovnaRada.ItwasMustafasnow-famousFacebookpostthatmobilizedhisfellowUkrainians
indefianceoftheYanukovychregime,precipitatingtheEuromaidanRevolutionofDignity.
Frankly,itwashardtonotgetemotionalwatchingCanadasprimeministerengagewiththisnextgenerationofUkrainesleaders,
particularlywhenhesalutedtheremarkableprogressUkrainehasmadeinmovingforwardsince1991,despitethelingeringand
debilitatinglegacyofitsSovietpastandthecurrenthardshipsimposedbytheRussianwaragainstUkraine.
Evenmoretellingly,evenastheprimeministerpromisedCanadasongoingsupportforUkraine,hesuggestedthatthis,hisfirst
statevisittoUkraine,wouldnotbehislast.WhatIrealizedatthatverymomentwasthatTrudeaugetsit,thatheknowsUkrainians
aretodayfightinganddyingfortheverysamevaluesthatCanadianshavealwaysdefended.
AlexandraChyczij,aTorontolawyer,travelledtoUkrainewithPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausdelegationasarepresentativeof
theUkrainianCanadianCongress.
LiberalsareSteppingBackonUkraine:BezanandKent
7/14/2016
JamesBezan,theOfficialOppositionCriticforNationalDefence,andPeterKent,theOfficialOppositionCriticforForeign
Affairs,todayissuedthefollowingstatementregardingtheLiberalgovernmentsfailuretofullysupportourUkrainianallies:
PrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausrecentvisittoUkrainerepresentedanopportunitytoreinforceCanadassupportforUkraine.
Unfortunately,insteadoftakingtheopportunitytoannouncethatCanadawouldbedoingmoretosupportourUkrainianallies,we
havelearnedthatCanadawillactuallybedoingless.
DespiteapersonalappealfromPresidentPoroshenko,PrimeMinisterTrudeaurefusedtoextendOperationUNIFIER,Canadas
trainingmissioninWesternUkrainebeyond2017.Thistrainingmissionisanexampleofthestrongbilateralrelationshipbetween
CanadaandUkraine.
TheLiberalgovernmentalsocancelledthesupplyofcriticalRADARSATsatelliteimagerytotheUkrainianmilitary,impacting
soldiersonthefrontlines.In2014,PresidentPoroshenkonotedthattheinformationsharingwashelpingtosavethelivesof
UkrainiansoldiersandciviliansandthankedthepreviousConservativegovernmentforitsongoingsupport.Cancellingthis
importantservicewithoutnoticeorexplanationissimplyunacceptable,especiallywhenInternationalTradeMinisterChrystia
Freelandsaidin2015thattheLiberalswouldunreservedlysupportprovidingthisinformation.
Furthermore,DefenceMinisterHarjitSajjansdecisiontonotjointhePrimeMinisterinUkrainerepresentsaclearshiftin
Canada-Ukrainerelations.TheMinistersabsenceresultedinthedefencecooperationagreement,whichoriginatedunderthe
previousConservativegovernment,notbeingfinalized.
UnderthepreviousConservativegovernment,CanadawasaworldleaderinitssupportforUkraine.Inadditiontoproviding
supportforNATO-ledmissions,wecontributedover$500millioninmilitary,economicandhumanitarianassistancetoUkraine,
sanctionedover270individualsandentities,anddeployedapproximately200CanadianArmedForcespersonneltodeliver
trainingandcapacity-buildingprogramsforUkrainiantroops.CanadacanandshoulddomoretosupportourUkrainianallies.
Senttime: 07/17/201611:55:02PM
BCc: [email protected]@[email protected]@gmail.com
Subject: Dugin'sSiteonHillary&Gulen(emails?)
http://katehon.com/news/hillary-clinton-connected-fetullah-gulen
HILLARYCLINTONCONNECTEDWITH
FETULLAHGULEN
Anewly-releasedemailandlobbyingdocumentsfiledwithCongressrevealsnewtiesbetween
ClintonworldandmembersofanetworkoperatedbyleaderofIslamicsectFetullahGulen
Inadditiontomuddyingthatcomplexgeopoliticaldynamic,a2009emailrecentlyreleasedby
JudicialWatchprovidesyetanotherexampleofaccessbeingprovidedtoaClintoncampaignand
ClintonFoundationdonor.
IntheApril1,2009message,aGulenfollowernamedGokhanOzkokaskedClintondeputychief
ofstaffHumaAbedinforhelpinconnectingoneofhisalliestoPresidentObama.
OzkokisfoundingboardmemberoftheTurkishCulturalCenterandpartofanetworkof
businessesandnon-profitsaffiliatedwiththeGulenmovement,alsoknownasHizmet.
Ozkokservedasnationalfinanceco-chairofthepro-ClintonReadyPAC.Hegave$10,000tothe
committeein2014and$2,700toClintonscampaignlastyear.HeisalsolistedontheTurkish
CulturalCenterswebsiteasamemberoftheClintonGlobalInitiative,oneofthenon-profitarms
oftheClintonFoundation.Hesgivenbetween$25,000and$50,000totheClintoncharity.
AnotherlinkbetweenGulenistsandtheClintonorbitwasrevealedinalobbyingregistration
disclosurefiledlastmonthwiththeSenate.ItshowsthataGulen-alignedgroupcalledtheAlliance
forSharedValueshiredtheClinton-connectedPodestaGrouptolobbyCongressonitsbehalf.
Thegroupseekstolobbyforthepromotionofpeace,toleranceandinterfaithdialogue.
ThegroupsexecutivedirectorisAlpAslandogan,aformerprofessoratuniversitiesinTexas.He
hasalsodonatedtoClintonspoliticalendeavors,campaignfinancerecordsshow.
ThePodestaGroupisanaturalchoiceforthoseseekinginfluencewithClinton.Thefirmwasco-
foundedbyJohnPodesta,Clintonscampaignchairman,andhisbrotherTony,amajorClinton
campaignbundler.
Throughvariousnon-profitgroups,bothGulenistspromotetheclericsteachings,whichare
relativelymoderateandpro-Western.TheyarealsoinvolvedintheGulenmovementsmoney-
makingendeavor:avastnetworkoftaxpayer-fundedcharterschools.
Thoseschools,whichnumbermorethan150,havebeenasourceofcontroversyfortheGulen
movement.
Federalinvestigatorshavereportedlyinvestigatedsomeoftheschoolsforusingworkvisasto
bringTurkishcitizenstotheU.S.toteach.Insomecases,taxpayerfundswereusedtopay
immigrationandlegalfeesforfamilymembersofteacherswhoworkedatthefacilities.Funds
allocatedtotheschoolshavealsobeenfunneledtocontractorscontrolledbyTurkishnationals
withconnectionstotheGulenmovement.
TheconnectionsbetweentheGulenmovementandClintonarenotthefirsttoberevealed.They
alsoaddtoquestionsaboutwhatitistheGulenistswantfromClintonandwhethertheDemocrat
hasrewardedtheirfinancialsupportwithfavors.
LastyearTheDailyCallerreportedthatnumerousGulenfollowershavedonatedtoClintons
variouspoliticalcampaignsandtoherfamilycharity.OneGulenmovementleader,RecepOzkan,
donatedbetween$500,000and$1milliontotheClintonFoundation.
AssenatorfromNewYork,ClintongaveakeynoteaddressattheTurkishCulturalCenters
annualbanquet.
TheemailtoAbedin,whichisthefirstpieceofcommunicationshowingthataGulenfollower
haddirectaccesstoClintonsstaff,soughtafavor.
PleasetellMadamSecretarythatitwouldbegreatifPresidentObamacanincludea15minutes
[sic]meetingwithEkmeleddinIhsanoglu,Secretary-GeneraloftheOrganizationofof[sic]the
IslamicConference(OIC),inhistriptoTurkey,wroteOzkok.
Someterrorwatchdoggroupsflaggedthemeetings,pointingtoIhsanogluspastpraiseofthe
terroristgroupHamasandforSudanesepresidentandU.S.foeOmaral-Bashir.ButIhsanoglu
doesnotappeartobearadicalfirebrandlikesomanyIslamistsintheMiddleEast.
AsforthePodestaGroup,thelobbyingfirmhasconnectionstoseveralcontroversialcompanies
seekingtopeddleinfluenceatClintonsStateDepartment.
Senttime: 07/20/201609:37:33AM
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceoftheROC.
Subject: [JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Attachments: GOP2016platformDRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_1468872234.pdf
Subject:Fwd:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsintheserviceofthe
ROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORE
STORIES.[...
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-19][ODDD]Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)..[MOYE]RUterroristsinthe
serviceoftheROC.[JDDD]Fwd:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInvestigativeCommittee[SKR],"
themsocowtimes.com,7/16+9MORESTORIES.[BOPO]TroublestotheRight(US),TroublestotheLeft(CA)----
StandingintheMiddlewithU[A]!!!
-----------Forwardedmessage----------
Subject:Ukraine:NYT(3),WP,Forbes,AC(2)
TheNewYorkTimes(3)
SevenUkrainianSoldiersKilledinEasternRegionsAmidSurgeinViolence
ByREUTERSJULY19,2016,7:48A.M.E.D.T.
KIEVSevenUkrainiantroopswerekilledinthepast24hoursduringfightingwithpro-Russianseparatists,makingJulythe
deadliestmonthfortheUkrainianmilitaryinnearlyayearafterasharpincreaseinviolence.
Another14werewounded,amilitaryspokesmansaid.ClashesinUkraine'seasternregionshavesurgedinspiteofan18-month-
old'Minsk'ceasefiredeal.Internationalmonitorshaveexpresseduneaseatrecentescalation.

UkrainianmilitaryspokesmanAndriyLysenkosaidseparatistshadbeenfiringhigh-calibermortarsatgovernmentpositions,naming
therebel-controlledtownofHorlivkaandtheoutskirtsofrebel-heldLuhanskasparticularhotspots.
"Onaverageeveryattacklastsforatleastthirtyminutesandcanlastforuptotwohours.That'showitwasyesterday,"Lysenko
said,withoutgivingdetailsonhowthesoldierswerekilled.
MeanwhileseparatistofficialsaccusedUkrainiantroopsofintensifyingshellingonrebel-heldterritory,separatistnewssiteDAN
reported.
TheMinskagreementwasmeanttostopthefighting,whichhaskilledover9,400sinceApril2014,butmanyofthedeal'spoints-
includingthecompletewithdrawalheavyweaponsfromthefrontline-haveyettobefullyimplemented.
OnJuly12,thechiefmonitoroftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,expresseduneaseoverthe
recentsharpincreaseinfighting.
Hedrewattentiontothecontinuedthreattocivilianlife,highlightingtherecentdeathsintwoseparateincidentsinDonetskregion
offiveyoungboys,threeofthembrothers.
(ReportingbyNataliaZinetsandAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyRaissaKasolowsky)
RussiaSaysCatchesOSCEEmployeeSpyingforUkraine
ByREUTERSJULY18,2016,1:39P.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWRussia'sFSBsecurityservicesaidonMondayithadcaughtanemployeeoftheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-
operationinEuropespyingforUkrainebypassingonsensitivemilitaryinformationaboutpro-Kremlinseparatists.
TheOSCEismonitoringafragileceasefireineasternUkrainewherepro-RussianseparatistsandUkrainiangovernmentforcesstill
regularlyexchangefire.
Itsopinioncounts,notleastbecauseGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelhassaidshewantsRussiatodomoretoresolvethecrisis
beforetheEuropeanUnionconsiderswhethertoliftsanctionsimposedonMoscowoveritsactionsinUkraine.
TheFSBsaidinastatementithadclearevidencethatUkraine'sSBUintelligenceservicewasillegallyusingtheOSCEtogather
militaryinformation.
ItsaidanOSCEtranslator,ArtyomShestakov,aUkrainiannational,hadbeenrecruitedbytheSBUandhadpassedon
informationaboutthemovementsofmilitaryconvoys,troopnumbers,andthemobilephonenumbersofmilitarycommanders.
Inlate2015,itsaidhehadobtainedinformationaboutalocalpro-RussianCossackleaderwhowaslaterkilledbytheUkrainian
intelligenceservices.
ShestakovhadbeendetainedonRussiansoil,theFSBsaid,andhadconfessedtospying.HewasallowedtoreturntoUkraine
becausetheFSBsaidhisactionshadnotharmedRussia'sownnationalsecurity,butwasbannedfromenteringRussia,itsaid.
TheSBUdeclinedtocomment.
TheOSCE'sSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraineissuedastatementviasocialmedia,sayingitwasabletoconfirmthatoneof
itslocalemployeesineasternUkrainewastemporarilyoutofreachwhileonleave.
Itsaiditknewwherehewasandthathewassafe.Itwasfornowunabletoprovidefurtherdetails,itsaid.
(ReportingbyDmitrySolovyovinMOSCOWandNatalyaZinetsinKIEVEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
TheNewYorkTimes
RussianImagesofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17WereAltered,ReportFinds
ByANDREWE.KRAMERJULY15,2016(July16printedition)
MOSCOWAgroupofarmscontrolresearchershavedeterminedthattwoimagesreleasedbytheRussiangovernment,
ostensiblytohelpclarifywhyacivilianairlinerwasshotdowntwoyearsago,weredigitallyalteredusingPhotoshopbeforebeing
postedonline.
PartsofoneRussianmilitarysatelliteimagesimplyvanished,accordingtoresearchersattheMiddleburyInstituteforInternational
StudiesatMonterey,inCalifornia,behindasuspect-lookingcloud.
Inanotherimage,twochunky,trackedantiaircraftweaponsappearinsharperfocusthanthesurroundinglandscape,the
researcherssaidinthereportpostedonlineonFriday.
Itiscleartheimageshavebeenmodifiedoraltered,theresearcherssaid,afterrunningthephotographsthroughasuiteof
professionalsoftwareusedtodetectfakedigitalpictures,incourtproceedingsinEurope.
ThefindingishardlythefirsttodebunkimportantelementsoftheRussiangovernmentsnarrativeofwhoshotdownMalaysia
AirlinesFlight17onJuly17,2014,killingall298peopleaboard,intheworstatrocityofthewarinUkraine.
Atthetime,Russiasstatenewsagency,RIA,initiallyreportedthatRussian-backedseparatistshadshotdownaUkrainianmilitary
aircraft,butquicklybacktrackedonceitbecameclearacivilianairlinerhadbeenbroughtdown.
Russianstatetelevisiondevotedconsiderableairtimetoconspiracytheories,includingassertionsthattheUkrainiansweretryingto
shootdownPresidentVladimirV.Putinsplane,thattheplanehadbeenfilledwithdeadbodiesandcrashedinanelaborateruseto
embarrassRussia,orthattheCentralIntelligenceAgencywasbehindtheattack.
UkraineandWesterngovernmentssaythatnoneofthisistrue,andthatactive-dutyRussiansoldiersbackingtherebelsfiredonthe
airliner,perhapsmistakingitforamilitaryaircraft,asitflewfromAmsterdamtoKualaLumpur,theMalaysiancapital.
ThephotographswerepublishedonthewebsitesoftheRussianMinistryofForeignAffairsandMinistryofDefensejustdaysafter
thecrash.TheywerepresentedashavingbeentakenbyoneormoreRussianspysatellitesonJuly17,2014,aswarragedin
easternUkraine.
TheRussianpresentationassertedthataccordingtoourinformationonthedayoftheaccidenttheUkrainianarmedforces
deployedthreetofourartillerybattalionsofBuk-M1missiles,andprovidedtwosatelliteimagestosupporttheclaim.
Theanti-tamperingsoftware,though,foundthatacloudobscuringaportionofoneimagehadatonepointbeensavedusinga
differentformofdatacompressionfromtherestofthepicture.
Intheotherphotograph,showingapairofrocketlaunchersinafieldwitharoadloopingthroughit,thelaunchersareinexplicably
insharperfocusthanthesurroundingfield,accordingtothereport.AlongwithPhotoshop,otherprogramsmayalsohavebeen
used,theresearcherssaid.
Itshardtobecertainaboutwhattheyhavedone,JeffreyLewis,oneofthereportsauthors,saidofthemanipulationofthe
images.Itspossibletheyenhancedthemissilelaunchersthatwerethereorthattheycutandpastedthemin.
Theresearchersfocusonusingopen-sourceinformationtostudynuclearnonproliferation.Theyoriginallyboughtthespecialized
softwaretoanalyzeNorthKoreanpropagandaphotographs,buthavefoundotherusesforit.
Itswonderfulyoucanseewhotouchesuptheirweddingphotos,Mr.Lewissaid.Itturnsoutpeopletouchupphotosquite
alot.
AskedonFridayabouttheallegations,theRussianDefenseMinistrysaiditwouldrequirethreedaystorespond.TheMinistryof
ForeignAffairsreferredquestionstotheMinistryofDefense.

Earlier,Bellingcat,acitizen-journalismgroupusingopen-sourceinformationlikesocialmediapoststoanalyzeconflicts,had
identifiedthecloudyphotographaslikelyalteredtoobscurethedateitwastaken.
Anythingshortoftheoriginalandunalteredimages,giventhemanipulationsevidentintheslidesreleasedonline,willnaturallygive
risetoconcernsRussiadeliberatelyfabricatedevidencetoevadelegalresponsibilityforthedeathsofthepassengersandcrew,
theMontereygroupsaidinitsstudy.
TheWashingtonPost
TrumpcampaigngutsGOPsanti-RussiastanceonUkraine
ByJoshRogin
Opinions
July18at12:21PMFollow@joshrogin
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-campaign-guts-gops-anti-russia-stance-on-
ukraine/2016/07/18/98adb3b0-4cf3-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-
a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&tid=a_inl
TheTrumpcampaignworkedbehindthesceneslastweektomakesurethenewRepublicanplatformwontcallforgiving
weaponstoUkrainetofightRussianandrebelforces,contradictingtheviewofalmostallRepublicanforeignpolicyleadersin
Washington.
Throughoutthecampaign,TrumphasbeendismissiveofcallsforsupportingtheUkrainegovernmentasitfightsanongoing
Russian-ledintervention.Trumpscampaignchairman,PaulManafort,workedasalobbyistfortheRussian-backedformer
UkrainianpresidentViktorYanukovychformorethanadecade.
Still,RepublicandelegatesatlastweeksnationalsecuritycommitteeplatformmeetinginClevelandweresurprisedwhenthe
TrumpcampaignorchestratedasetofeventstomakesurethattheGOPwouldnotpledgetogiveUkrainetheweaponsithas
beenaskingforfromtheUnitedStates.
Insidethemeeting,DianaDenman,aplatformcommitteememberfromTexaswhowasaTedCruzsupporter,proposeda
platformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,increasingaidforUkraineand
providinglethaldefensiveweaponstotheUkrainianmilitary.
Today,thepost-ColdWaridealofaEuropewholeandfreeisbeingseverelytestedbyRussiasongoingmilitaryaggressionin
Ukraine,theamendmentread.TheUkrainianpeopledeserveouradmirationandsupportintheirstruggle.
Trumpstaffersintheroom,whoarenotdelegatesbutaretheretooverseetheprocess,intervened.Byworkingwithpro-Trump
delegates,theywereabletogettheissuetabledwhiletheydevisedamethodtorollbackthelanguage.
Onthesideline,DenmantriedtopersuadetheTrumpstaffersnottochangethelanguage,butfailed.Iwastroubledwhentheyput
asidemyamendmentandthenwatereditdown,Denmantoldme.Isaid,Whatisyourproblemwithacountrythatwantsto
remainfree?Itseemslikeasimplething.
Finally,TrumpstafferswroteanamendmenttoDenmansamendmentthatstrippedouttheplatformscallforprovidinglethal
defensiveweaponsandreplaceditwithsofterlanguagecallingforappropriateassistance.
Thatamendmentwasvotedonandpassed.WhentheRepublicanPartyreleasesitsplatformMonday,theofficialRepublicanparty
positiononarmsforUkrainewillbeatoddswithalmostallthepartysnationalsecurityleaders.
ThisisanotherexampleofTrumpbeingoutofstepwithGOPleadershipandthemainstreaminawaythatshowshewouldbe
dangerousforAmericaandtheworld,saidRachelHoff,anotherplatformcommitteememberwhowasintheroom.
Ofcourse,TrumpisnottheonlypoliticiantoopposesendinglethalweaponstoUkraine.PresidentObamadecidednotto
authorizeit,despiterecommendationstodosofromhistopEuropeofficialsintheStateDepartmentandthemilitary.TheUnited
StateshasprovidedUkrainewithnon-lethalequipmentandaid.
TrumpsviewofRussiahasalwaysbeenfriendlierthanmostRepublicans.HessaidhewouldgetalongverywellwithVladimir
PutinandcalleditagreathonorwhenPutinpraisedhim.TrumphasdonealotofbusinessinRussiaandhasbeentraveling
theresince1987.LastAugust,hesaidofUkrainejoiningNATO,Iwouldntcare.HetraveledthereinSeptember,andhetold
UkrainianstheirwarisreallyaproblemthataffectsEuropealotmorethanitaffectsus.
ForTrump,thebiggestthreattoEuropeisnotRussia,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwithhisthinking.HebelievestheUnitedStates
shouldfocusonhelpingEuropefightIslamistterrorismandopenborders,notconfrontingPutin.Hehascalledforareductionof
theU.S.commitmenttoNATO.HesimplydoesntseeRussiaasadangerousthreat.
ForDenman,theTrumpcampaignsactionsbetrayedtheU.S.commitmenttosupportingstrugglingdemocraciesaroundtheworld,
whichsheconsidersacoreRepublicanvalue.
TheUkrainianpeoplearetryingtocomeoutofthepastandstayfree.Weowetothosewhoarefightingforfreedomstilltogive
themahelpinghand,shesaid.
ImverypassionateandsupportiveoftheReaganforeignpolicyofpeacethroughstrength.
TrumptooofteninvokesRonaldReaganwhentalkingaboutAmericasroleintheworld.ButalthoughReagannegotiatedwiththe
SovietUnion,healsostooduptoRussianaggressioninEuropeanddefendeddemocraticprinciplesabroad.
Whentheplatformcomesout,RepublicanswillseehowfarfromtheReagandoctrinetheirpartyhasdrifted,thankstoTrump.
Forbes
Trump,DeferringToPutin,DeletedGOPPlatform'sCallToSupplyUkraineWithLethalDefensiveWeapons
PaulRoderickGregory
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/07/18/trump-deferring-to-putin-deleted-gop-platforms-call-to-supply-
ukraine-with-lethal-defensive-weapons/#1f440a299d32
Accordingtomultipleaccounts,theTrumpcampaignhassuccessfullyworkedbehindthescenestomakesurethenewRepublican
platformwouldnotpledgethelethaldefensiveweaponsUkrainehasbeenpleadingforfromtheUnitedStates.Trumpsforces
havetabledaplatformamendmentthatwouldcallformaintainingorincreasingsanctionsagainstRussia,andhavesubstituted
appropriateassistanceforprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainesmilitary.Removingsanctionsandblockinglethal
militaryassistancetoUkrainearethetwoprimarygoalsofPutinsforeignpolicy.TheRepublicanplatformishandingthosegoalsto
Putinonagoldenplatter.
DespiteCongressionalapproval,theObamaadministrationhasnotsuppliedUkrainewithlethaldefensiveweaponsonthefoolish
groundsthatUkrainecannotdefeattheRussianmilitaryandthattheweaponscouldfallintothewronghands.Ofcourse,Ukraines
armycannotdefeatRussiabutanupgradedmilitarycouldimposelossesonRussiathatwoulddiscouragefurtherincursions.
RussiaswaragainstUkraineisararecaseswhereweaponswilldefinitelynotfallintothewronghands.TheUkrainianpeople,
startingfromzero,havebuiltanarmythathaslimitedRussianoccupationtopartsoftheDonbasregion.UnlikeSyriaorLibya,we
knowwhothegoodguysare.UkrainewillnothandovermoderncommunicationsgearandantitankweaponstoRussiaorthird
parties.Theyneedthemfortheirownnationalsurvival.
Inanearlieressay,IgaveninereasonswhyfellowconservativesshouldvoteforDonaldTrump,amongthemSupremeCourt
nominations,Clintonspropensitytolie,thefree-riderNATOproblem,TrumpsAmericafirstversusHillaryscitizenofthe
worldforeignpolicy,andhisunderstandingofAmericasdisenchantmentwithpoliticsasusual.Mysupportwasnotwithout
reservations.AssomeonewhofollowstheKremlinsperfidyclosely,TrumpsoffhandpraiseofPutinandhisapparentlackof
concernovertheCrimeanannexation,theinvasionofUkraine,andPutinssalvagingoftheAssadregimethroughmilitary
interventionpromptedmetowriteSevenWarningstoDonaldTrumpaboutVladimirPutin,amongthem:
Putinstarted(withoutcause)awaragainstUkrainethathaskilledmorethan10,000,wounded25,000,andmisplacedoneanda
halfmillion.SofarPutinhassufferednoconsequences,althoughhe,forthefirsttimeinpostwarhistory,alterednationalboundaries
byforce.
PutinhasdeclaredtheUnitedStatesasenemynumberonesincehisFebruary2007speechinMunich.HowwillTrumpgetalong
verywellwithanegotiatingpartner,whoseregimesveryexistencerequirestheU.S.asRussiasmajorenemy?
Putinliespubliclyandrepeatedlyaboutthemostimportantpoliticalmatters,suchastherearenoRussiantroopsinUkraine,that
theCrimeanannexationwasaspontaneousactoftheCrimeanpeople,andthataUkrainianfightershotdownMH17.Trump
complainsthatHillaryisaserialliaryethebelieveshecannegotiatewitharogueleaderwholieswithouthesitationaboutmatters
involvingthelivesofthousandsorhundredsofthousands.
PutinrunsacriminalkleptocracythatnotonlystolethenationalwealthbutlikelykilledhundredsofRussiansinpolitically-motivated
apartmentbombingsandispresumedtohaveorderedanumberofpoliticalassassinations.UnderPutin,Russiaisinthetoplistof
journalistskilledforpoliticalmotives.
Trumptoutshisskillsasasavvynegotiator,whocansizeuphisopponents.IfTrumpletsoffPutinforhiscrimesand
misadventures,herunstheriskofplayingthedupeasdidformerChancellorGerhardSchroederofGermany(Putinsstoogeon
Gazpromsboard),GeorgeW.Bush(wholookedintohissoul),andBarackObamaandHillaryClinton(Russianresetandthe
Syrianfiasco).TrumpsurelydoesnotwishtojointheseusefulfoolsoftheKremlin,butheseemsontheverge.
DonaldTrumpwillwinthepresidencyifhecomesacrossasastrongleaderbothathomeandabroad.Themostdirecttestsofhis
projectionofstrengthabroadwillbehisfightagainstterrorismandhiswillingnesstostanduptoPutin.Heseemstobefailinginthe
lattercase.
Trumphasboastedthatagoodnegotiatordoesnotsaywhatheisnotgoingtodoinadvance.Removingdefensivelethalweapons
toUkrainefromtheplatformdoesjustthat.Itisasignofaweaknegotiator.TheeyesofthenationshouldbeonarmsforUkraine
astheRepublicanconventionunfolds.IfTrumpsendsthewrongsignal,heriskshiscredentialsasastrongleader.
AtlanticCouncil(2)
UkraineNeedstoAbandonitsSovietThinkingOnceandforAll
July18,2016
ByBasilA.Kalymon
UkrainesreformeffortscontinuetosputteronwithoutanytransformativeresultsmorethantwoyearsafterformerPresident
ViktorYanukovychfledtoMoscow.Theeconomysbasicproblemshavenotyetbeenaddressed.Itisstillboggeddowninits
Sovietpast,withpopulistforcesmakingillusorypromisesthatappealtomanyvotersSoviet-eramentality.Theresultiscorruption,
inefficiency,alackofinvestmentandinnovation,budgetarystress,inflation,andeconomicstagnation.
Inordertoexperiencetransformativegrowthandprosperity,Ukrainemustradicallybreakwiththepastandthecurrentpopulist
mentalityandembracefreemarketeconomicpolicies.Suchpoliciesareatthebaseofallofthesuccessfultransformationsthat
haveoccurredinpost-communistsocieties.Inessence,whatisrequiredisarecognitionofthestateslimitedroleandanagreement
thatindividualresponsibilityandmarketforceswillguidetheeconomy.
Thisapproachwouldrequiredramaticchangestomanyoftheeconomysfundamentalsystems.
ReadMore
HowUkraineCanWintheInformationWarinaFactFreeWorld
July18,2016
ByPeterDickinson
Whatmediaoutletsdoyoutrust?FromtheBrexitreferendumandtheUSpresidentialracetoRussiasinformationwaron
Ukraine,itisbecomingincreasinglyclearthatwenowliveinafact-freeworldwhereemotionsreignsupremeandtruthisintheeye
ofthebeholder.
Thistrendfirstbecameapparentaroundthetimeofthe2003Iraqwar.Themainstreammediawasdirectlycomplicitinsomeof
themisinformationissuedduringthelead-uptotheUS-ledinvasion,shatteringpublictrustinmanyofthemostrespectedproviders
ofinformation.Meanwhile,theconspiracytheorysubculturepromotedbytheinternethasplayedanequallydevastatingrolein
underminingthesanctityoffacts.Today,counterculturewebsiteshavemovedinfromthefringestocompetewithlegacybrands,
whilemanyoftheleadingcurrentaffairsprogramsonTVare,literally,comedyshows.
ReadMore
Subject:CheckoutUKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPat
To:[email protected],[email protected],[email protected]
UKRAINEUPDATE:RussianterroristsintheserviceoftheMoscowPatriarchate
Subject:"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
"FSBARRESTdeputyheadofMoscow'sInves/tigativeCommittee[SKR],"themsocowtimes.com,7/16
RussiasFederalSecurityService(FSB)havedetainedseveralemployeesoftheMoscowdepartmentof
theRussianInvestigativeCommittee,includingdeputyheadDenisNIKANDROVTheFSBbegana
searchofthecommitteesMoscowofficesinconnectionwiththecaseagainstnotoriouscrimeboss
ZakharyKALASHOV,orSHAKROMolodoi.
And:MK.rudiscussesthearrestofNiklandrovandtwootherhigh-rankingSKR
officials:http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1478102/
And:IntheKREMLINtheyarepermittinganinvestigationoftheparticipationoftheFSBinthe
[Olympic]DOPINGSCANDAL,http://newsru.com/russia/19jul2016/doping_print.html
And:MichaelISIKOFF,ChiefInvestigativeCorrespondent,YahooNews,TRUMPsfavoritegeneral
[MichaelFLYNN]leadscrowd[atRepublicanConvention]inanti-Hillarychant:Lockher
up,yahoo.com/news.7/18
But[Flynns]speechcameonadaywhenFlynnfacednewquestionsaboutsomeofhismore
controversialviewsaswellashisrelationshipwithaRussianTVStation[RT]thatservesasa
PROPAGANDAARMofPutinsgovernment.InaninterviewwithYahooNewsearlierintheday,Flynn
appearedtoacknowledgeforthefirsttimethathewasPAIDtoflytoMoscowlastDecemberandspeak
ataneventcelebratingthe10thanniversaryofRT,theRussianTVchannelthatregularlypromotesthe
Kremlinline
And:17-pageinterviewwithNatalyaPOKLONSKAYA,thePutiniteProcuratorof
CRIMEA:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73893.html?print=1
And:SevenUkrainiansoldiersKILLEDinclasheswithpro-Russianseparatists,themsocowtimes.com,
7/19
TROUBLESONTHERIGHT(US),TROUBLESONTHELEFT(CA).STANDINGINTHE
MIDDLEWITHU!!![SEEFURTHER]
Subject:ReferencestoUkraineinGOP2016Platform[TheNewDTVersion]
To:
Intheinternationalarena,aweakAdministrationhasinvitedaggression.TheresultsoftheAdministrationsunilateralapproachto
disarmamentarealreadyclear:AnemboldenedChinaintheSouthChinaSea,aresurgentRussiaoccupyingpartsofUkraineand
threateningneighborsfromtheBaltictotheCaucasus,andanaggressiveIslamistterrornetworkintheMiddleEast.Wesupport
maintainingand,ifwarranted,increasingsanctions,togetherwithourallies,againstRussiaunlessanduntilUkrainessovereignty
andterritorialintegrityarefullyrestored.WealsosupportprovidingappropriateassistancetothearmedforcesofUkraine
andgreatercoordinationwithNATOdefenseplanning.[??]AllouradversariesheardthemessageintheAdministrations
cutbacks:Americaisweakerandretreating.Concomitantly,wehonor,support,andthankalllawenforcement,firstresponders,
andemergencypersonnelfortheirservice.

ForthepeopleofRussia,weaffirmourrespectandourdeterminationtomaintainafriendshipbeyondthereachofthosewhowish
todivideus.Wehavecommonimperatives:Endingterrorism,combatingnuclearproliferation,promotingtrade,andmore.Wealso
haveacommonproblem:Thecontinuingerosionofpersonallibertyandfundamentalrightsunderthecurrentofficialsinthe
Kremlin.Repressiveathomeandrecklessabroad,theirpoliciesimperilthenationswhichregainedtheirself-determinationupon
thecollapseoftheSovietUnion.WewillmeetthereturnofRussianbelligerencewiththesameresolvethatledtothecollapseof
theSovietUnion.WewillnotacceptanyterritorialchangeinEasternEuropeimposedbyforce,inUkraine,Georgia,or
elsewhere,andwilluseallappropriateconstitutionalmeasurestobringtojusticethepractitionersofaggressionand
assassination.[??]WeurgegreaterattentioninU.S.diplomacy,trade,andstrategicplanning,tothenationsofEurasia,formerly
partsoftheSovietEmpire.Caughtbetweentheirtwoauthoritarianneighbors,theirpathtowarddemocraticinstitutionshasbeen
uncertain.WeurgeourgovernmentandouralliestoworktowardtheintegrationoftheCentralAsianrepublicsintotheglobal
economythroughforeigninvestment,whichcanbringwithitmarketandpoliticalreformsandafirmerestablishmentoftheruleof
law.Thosedevelopmentswillnotonlyimprovethelivingconditionsthroughoutthatvastareabutarelikelytoreducethelureofthe
radicalideologiesthatalreadythreatentheregion.
[SEEFULLGOPPLATFORMATTACHED]
Subject:Doesordoesn'tTrudeaugetit???
To:
SomepeoplethinkTrudeauDOESNOTGETIT!!!!CanadaalreadystoppedsharinginfowithUkraine'smilitaryandisnot
extendingassistancewithmilitarytraining,etc.metc.(Seealsothelistofcancelledmilitarycooperationassuppliedbythe
Conservativeoppositionthatfollowsthearticleandisattached.)
AtthesametimeleadersoftheCanadianUkrainiancommunitycontinuetosignthepraisesoftheTrudeaugovernment(article
follows).
Opinion:InUkraine,JustinTrudeaushowedhegetsit
ALEXANDRACHYCZIJ,SPECIALTOMONTREALGAZETTE
MorefromAlexandraChyczij,SpecialtoMontrealGazette
Publishedon:July18,2016|LastUpdated:July18,20162:25PMEDT
CanadianPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeauandhisson,Xavierpaytheirrespectstothevictimsofthe1932-1933great
famineattheHolodomorfaminememorialinKyiv,Ukraine,onJuly11,2016ANATOLIISTEPANOV/AFP/GETTY
IMAGES
AsaCanadianwhoseparentssufferedunderNaziandSoviettyrannyinUkraine,Iamamongthemostgratefulofcitizensforthe
asylumandsecondchancethiscountryofferedthem.Privilegedbyhavingbeenincludedasamemberoftheofficialdelegation
accompanyingPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeautoUkrainelastweekIwasstruckwithhowmuchtheprimeministerunderstands
aboutwhatthelandofmyancestorsenduredandwhatUkrainehopestoonedaybecome.
Everywherehewent,theprimeministersolemnlyrememberedUkrainespast.Helaidawreathatthememorialcomplexrecalling
themanymillionsofvictimsofthegenocidalGreatFamineof1932-33inSovietUkraine,theHolodomor.Herecalledthemillions
ofUkrainianswhofoughtanddiedfortheircountryduringtheSecondWorldWar,attheTomboftheUnknownSoldier.Andhe
paidhisrespectstothevictimsoftheNazisatBabynYar.
Fittingly,TrudeaualsodirectedattentiontotodaysUkraine.TheCanadaUkraineFreeTradeAgreementwassignedbyminister
ofInternationalTrade,ChrystiaFreeland,confirmingourcountrysgrowingeconomictieswithUkraine.Andhevisitedwithour
soldierswhoareengagedintrainingofUkrainessoldiersthroughOperationUnifier.CanadiansoldiersareenhancingUkraines
abilitiestodefenditselfevenasadditionaltroopsdeploytoLatviatoreassureourNATOalliesofCanadasreliability.
ButwhatwasmoreremarkablewashowTrudeauengagedwithUkrainesfuture.Athisinitiative,ameetingwasarrangedinKyiv
July11bringingtogethersomeofthemostdynamicandcourageousleadersofchangeinUkraine.Iwitnessedhowtheseyoung
Ukrainians,allofthemEnglish-speaking,andincludingpolicechiefs,physicians,investigativereporters,parliamentarians,anti-
corruptionwarriorsandLGBTQactivists,spokewiththeprimeminister.Theymadeitcleartheyallshareonebasicgoal,tosee
UkraineresumeitsrightfulplaceinEurope.Collectively,thesewomenandmenareexamplesofwhatUkrainesnextgeneration
advocatesfor:humanrights,freedomofspeechandassociation,theruleoflawanddemocracy.
TheprimeministerspokewithKhatiaDekanoidze,chiefoftheUkrainianNationalPolice,awomanintentonreformingaonce-
notoriouslycorruptforce.SheisbeingablyassistedbyCanadasownNataliaShuster,aninspectorwiththeMontrealpolice,in
UkraineundertheCanadianPolicingAgreement.ThentherewasSvitlanaZalishchuk,ajournalistandUkrainianparliamentarian,a
determinedcampaigneragainstcensorshipandastrongadvocateforpoliticalreform.AnotherwomanpresentwasDaria
Kaleniuk,executivedirectoroftheAnti-CorruptionActionCentre,anexpertinstolenassetrecoveryandanti-moneylaundering.
NotallofthosespeakingwithTrudeauwere,ofcourse,Ukrainianbybirthornationality.Ukraineistodayanincreasinglyinclusive
society,wherecitizenshipisbasednotononesethnic,religious,orracialheritage,butonengagementinthebuildingofaliberal-
democraticcommunity.Notsurprisingly,oneofthemostprominentUkrainiancitizenstodayisMustafaNayyem,borninKabul,a
journalistandmemberoftheVerkhovnaRada.ItwasMustafasnow-famousFacebookpostthatmobilizedhisfellowUkrainians
indefianceoftheYanukovychregime,precipitatingtheEuromaidanRevolutionofDignity.
Frankly,itwashardtonotgetemotionalwatchingCanadasprimeministerengagewiththisnextgenerationofUkrainesleaders,
particularlywhenhesalutedtheremarkableprogressUkrainehasmadeinmovingforwardsince1991,despitethelingeringand
debilitatinglegacyofitsSovietpastandthecurrenthardshipsimposedbytheRussianwaragainstUkraine.
Evenmoretellingly,evenastheprimeministerpromisedCanadasongoingsupportforUkraine,hesuggestedthatthis,hisfirst
statevisittoUkraine,wouldnotbehislast.WhatIrealizedatthatverymomentwasthatTrudeaugetsit,thatheknowsUkrainians
aretodayfightinganddyingfortheverysamevaluesthatCanadianshavealwaysdefended.
AlexandraChyczij,aTorontolawyer,travelledtoUkrainewithPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausdelegationasarepresentativeof
theUkrainianCanadianCongress.
LiberalsareSteppingBackonUkraine:BezanandKent
7/14/2016
JamesBezan,theOfficialOppositionCriticforNationalDefence,andPeterKent,theOfficialOppositionCriticforForeign
Affairs,todayissuedthefollowingstatementregardingtheLiberalgovernmentsfailuretofullysupportourUkrainianallies:
PrimeMinisterJustinTrudeausrecentvisittoUkrainerepresentedanopportunitytoreinforceCanadassupportforUkraine.
Unfortunately,insteadoftakingtheopportunitytoannouncethatCanadawouldbedoingmoretosupportourUkrainianallies,we
havelearnedthatCanadawillactuallybedoingless.
DespiteapersonalappealfromPresidentPoroshenko,PrimeMinisterTrudeaurefusedtoextendOperationUNIFIER,Canadas
trainingmissioninWesternUkrainebeyond2017.Thistrainingmissionisanexampleofthestrongbilateralrelationshipbetween
CanadaandUkraine.
TheLiberalgovernmentalsocancelledthesupplyofcriticalRADARSATsatelliteimagerytotheUkrainianmilitary,impacting
soldiersonthefrontlines.In2014,PresidentPoroshenkonotedthattheinformationsharingwashelpingtosavethelivesof
UkrainiansoldiersandciviliansandthankedthepreviousConservativegovernmentforitsongoingsupport.Cancellingthis
importantservicewithoutnoticeorexplanationissimplyunacceptable,especiallywhenInternationalTradeMinisterChrystia
Freelandsaidin2015thattheLiberalswouldunreservedlysupportprovidingthisinformation.
Furthermore,DefenceMinisterHarjitSajjansdecisiontonotjointhePrimeMinisterinUkrainerepresentsaclearshiftin
Canada-Ukrainerelations.TheMinistersabsenceresultedinthedefencecooperationagreement,whichoriginatedunderthe
previousConservativegovernment,notbeingfinalized.
UnderthepreviousConservativegovernment,CanadawasaworldleaderinitssupportforUkraine.Inadditiontoproviding
supportforNATO-ledmissions,wecontributedover$500millioninmilitary,economicandhumanitarianassistancetoUkraine,
sanctionedover270individualsandentities,anddeployedapproximately200CanadianArmedForcespersonneltodeliver
trainingandcapacity-buildingprogramsforUkrainiantroops.CanadacanandshoulddomoretosupportourUkrainianallies.
Senttime: 07/19/201609:31:39AM
FW:[JULYMONDAYEVEREAD][MB]ROPINGTHE[RU]DOPERS:ADoubleIssue---CNN&BBCStoriesBacktoBack..[ANT/F]
Subject:
Russians,RussiansEverywhere(inDC,thatis!!!)
Subject:Fwd:[JULYMONDAYEVEREAD][MB]ROPINGTHE[RU]DOPERS:ADoubleIssue---CNN&BBCStoriesBacktoBack..
[ANT/F]Russians,RussiansEverywhere(inDC,thatis!!!)
Subject:[JULYMONDAYEVEREAD][MB]ROPINGTHE[RU]DOPERS:ADoubleIssue---CNN&BBCStoriesBackto
Back..[ANT/F]Russians,RussiansEverywhere(inDC,thatis!!!)
From:MartaBurachok<[email protected]>
Subject:Russiandoping:'Anunprecedentedattackontheintegrityofsport&ontheOlympicGames'-CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/18/sport/russia-doping-sochi-2014-olympic-games-rio-2016/index.html
Russiandoping:'Anunprecedentedattackonthe
integrityofsport
&theOlympicGames'
OnGPS:Russianathletesunderinvestigation01:41
(CNN)TheInternationalOlympicCommitteeshouldconsiderbanningRussian
athletesfromtheRio2016Games,accordingtotheWorldAnti-DopingAgency.
Russiastandsaccusedof"ashockingandunprecedentedattackontheintegrityof
sportandontheOlympicGames"afteranindependentWADA-commissionedreport
saiditoperatedastate-sponsoreddopingprogramduringthe2014SochiWinter
Games.
ThereportbyCanadianlawprofessorRichardMcLarenconcludedRussia's"Ministry
ofSportdirected,controlledandoversawthemanipulationofathlete'sanalytical
resultsorsampleswapping,withtheactiveparticipationandassistanceoftheFSB,
CSP,andbothMoscowandSochiLaboratories."
TheFSBisRussia'sfederalsecurityservicewhiletheCSPisinvolvedinthetraining
ofRussianathletes.
Inastatement,WADAcalledon"theIOCandtheInternationalParalympic
Committeetoconsider,undertheirrespectivecharters,todeclineentries,forRio
2016,ofallathletessubmittedbytheRussianOlympicCommittee(ROC)andthe
RussianParalympicCommittee."
ItalsorecommendedRussianofficialsbedeniedaccesstointernational
competitions,includingRio2016.
IOCpresidentThomasBachsaidinastatementit"willnothesitatetotakethe
toughestsanctionsavailableagainstanyindividualororganizationimplicated,"with
thegoverningbody'sexecutivessettodecideTuesdaywhatfurthersanctionsRussia
willface.
Photos:Battlingdrugcheats
Coe,aformerOlympicgoldmedalist,hascomeunderfireforhispraisefor
predecessorDiack,whomhecalledthesport's"spiritualleader"whenhetookover
theroleinAugust2015.HetoldCNNhewould"doanythingtofixoursport."
TheWorldAnti-DopingAgency's(WADA)newreportisthelatesttwisttohitthe
Russiandopingscandal,withitrevealingobstructions--includingbribes,
intimidationandtamperedpackages--totestinginRussia.
WADAwillretestsamplesfromthe2008and2012Olympics,focusingonthose
intendingtocompeteinRio2016,torootoutanypotentialdrugcheats.
WADA'sreportonallegedwidespreaddruguseininternationalathleticsconcluded
thatseniorfiguresincludingIAAFpresidentSebastianCoe(pictured)"couldnothave
beenunawareoftheextentofdoping."
FormerWADApresidentDickPoundchairedapressconferenceheldinMunichon
January14,2016topresentthe89-pagereport.Itsaid"corruptionwasembedded"
and"cannotbeblamedonasmallnumberofmiscreants"withintheIAAF.
AreportbytheIAAF'sethicscommitteeclaimsapowerfultrioblackmailedRussian
distancerunnerLilyaShobukhovaintopayingthemofftokeepresultsofherpositive
drugtestssecret.
Russia'sformerathleticspresidentValentinBalakhnichev,itsex-chiefcoachforlong-
distanceathletesAlexeiMelnikovandformerIAAFconsultantPapaMassataDiack
haveallbeenbannedforlife.Thereportsays"farfromsupportingtheanti-doping
regime,theysubvertedit."TheIAAF'sformeranti-dopingdirectorGabrielDollhas
beengivenafive-yearban.
ThereportclaimsBalakhnichev,MelnikovandPapaMassataDiack"conspired
together...toconcealformorethanthreeyearsanti-dopingviolationsbyanathlete
atwhatappearedtobethehighestpinnacleofhersport.Allthreecompoundedthe
viceofwhattheydidbyconspiringtoextortwhatwereinsubstancebribesfrom
Shobukhovabyactsofblackmail."
PoundproducedanindependentreportinNovember2015whichdetailedsystemic
dopinginRussiaalongwithanestablishmentefforttocoveritup.Herecommended
Russiabebannedfromathleticcompetition,whichitdulywasbytheIAAF.
Thefindingsuncovereda"deeply-rootedcultureofcheatingatalllevels"within
Russianathletics.Askedifitamountedtostate-sponsoreddoping,Poundtold
reporters:"Inthesenseofconsentingtoit,there'snootherconclusion."
ThereportsuggestedtheLondon2012Olympics--inwhichRussiawon24gold
medalsandfinishedfourth--was"inasense,sabotagedbytheadmissionof
athleteswhoshouldhavenotbeencompeting."
Pound'sreportdetailed"corruptionandbriberypracticesatthehighestlevelsof
internationalathletics,"evidenceofwhichhasbeengiventointernationalcrime-
fightingorganizationInterpolforfurtherinvestigation.
Senegal'sLamineDiack,formerpresidentoftheIAAF,isbeinginvestigatedby
Frenchpoliceoverclaimsheacceptedbribestodefersanctionsagainstdrugcheats
fromRussia.Frenchprosecutorsclaimhetook"morethan1million($1M)"forhis
silence.Diackhasyettocomment.
WADAREPORT
"Theinvestigationhasestablishedthefindingssetoutinthereportbeyonda
reasonabledoubt,"McLarentoldapressconferenceinToronto,CanadaMonday.
"Theevidencewehaveuncoveredisallverifiableandcanbecross-corroboratedby
multiplesources.Iamunwaveringlyconfidentinourreport,"headded.
TheKremlinandRussianSportsMinistryareyettorespondtoCNN'srequestfor
comment.
TheinvestigationcameoffthebackofclaimsmadebyformerRussiananti-doping
laboratorydirectorGrigoryRodchenkovlastyeartotheNewYorkTimesthathewas
orderedtocoverupthedruguseofatleast15Sochi2014medalwinners.
TheRussiantrackandfieldteamhasalreadybeenbarredbyfromcompetinginthe
2016GamesbytheIAAF,althoughmorethan80athleteshavefiledpetitionsto
participateundertheOlympicflag.
Read:NewWADAreportgivesfreshallegationsofRussiandoping
WillRussiabebannedfromRio?
ReactiontotheMcLarenreportfromtheinternationalcommunityhasbeenswift,
withU.S.Anti-DopingAgencychiefTravisTygartsayingthestudy"hasconcluded,
beyondareasonabledoubt,amind-blowinglevelofcorruptionwithinbothRussian
sportandgovernmentthatgoesrighttothefieldofplay."
Tygart,whowasinstrumentalinexposingAmericancyclistLanceArmstrongasa
drugcheat,calledontheinternationalcommunitytorallytogether"toensurethis
unprecedentedlevelofcriminalityneveragainthreatensthesportswecherish."
TygartalsopushedforRussiatobebannedentirelyfromnextmonth'sOlympics.
"Anythinglessthanthatsendsthewrongmessages,"hetoldCNN.
Anti-dopingauthoritiesfrommorethan10countries--includingtheU.S.,Canada,
Germany,Spain,JapanandSwitzerland--arealsoexpectedtofilearequesttohave
theentireRussianOlympicteambannedfromRio,accordingtotheNewYorkTimes,
whichsaysithasreceivedemailsconfirmingthematter.
"Thefactthatthecommissiondidn'tgiveanyrecommendationstobanRussianteam
fromtheOlympicsinRioisapositivefact,"theheadoftheRussianOlympic
committeeAlexanderZhukovtoldthestaterunnewsorganizationTASS,addingthat
thereportneededtobestudiedingreaterdetailbeforehecouldcommentfurther.
Meanwhile,RussianMPIrinaRodnina--athree-timeOlympicgoldmedalistinfigure
skating--accusedthereportofabroaderplantodefaceRussiaaheadofthe
Games.
"It'sageneraltendency,theMcLarenreportissimilarwithotherrestrictionsagainst
Russia,intrade,policyandagainstcertainindividuals.There'sapowerfulexternal
pressureonRussia,"shetoldTASS."TheMcLarenreporthasbeenpresentedjust
fewdaysaheadoftheRioOlympics,andit'sbeendonethiswaydeliberately.Nowit
alldependsontheIOCdecision."
"Culturechange"necessary
ShortlyaftertheMcLaren'scomments,WADAchiefspokesmanBenNicholstweeted
thathisorganizationwouldrecommendthatRussiansbebannedfromall
internationalcompetition,includingRio,until"culturechange"isachieved.
Inaseriesoftweets,Nicholscondemnedwhathecalledthe"mostdeliberateand
disturbingabuseofpowereverseeninsport"whilesayingthatthescaleofthe
accusationsacross30sportsmeans"therecannolongerbeapresumptionof
innocence"whereRussianathletesareconcerned.
"Thisisextraordinary,wehavenevereverheardofanythingthisbad,"saidCNN
sportsanalystChristineBrennan."Thisgoesintotheheartof,'Canyoubelievethat
anyRussianathleteiscleangoingintoRio?'"
Inhisstatement,whistle-blowerRodchenkovallegedthatheassistedindoctoring
urinesamplesprovidedbyRussianathletesduringovernightshiftsattheSochi
Games.HealsoaccusedtheRussiansecretserviceofprovidingactiveassistance
withthecover-up,whichhesaystookplacebefore,duringandaftertheSochi
Olympics.
Rodchenkov'sstatementfollowedallegationsfromanotherformeremployeeofthe
RussiaAnti-Dopingagency,VitaliyStepanov,whoclaimedina2014German
documentarythattheRussianOlympicfederationsuppliedbannedsubstancesto
athletesinexchangefor5%oftheirearnings.StepanovismarriedtoformerRussian
middle-distancerunnerYuliyaStepanova,whobackeduptheclaims.
"InatrainingcampinPortugal,ourathletessimplylivedunderfalsenames,"said
Stepanova,whorelocatedtoCanadaandhassuccessfullyappealedtorununderthe
OlympicflaginRio."Theyhavetakenbannedsubstances,theyundertookacourse
ofdoping,andtoensurethatforeigncontrolofficersdidnotcomeandtestthem,
theyprovidedfalsenames."
Read:Russianpole-vaultinggreatcontestOlympicban
Read:Dopinginsport--countingthehumancost
DopingallegationshaverepeatedlybeendiscreditedbyRussianauthorities,
includingaspokesmanforPresidentVladimirPutinwhoreferredtoStepanovaas
"Judas,"accordingtoanIAAFreport.
AdocumentaryallegingthatRussiahasfallenvictimtoaninternationalsmear
campaignisscheduledtoairMondayonRussiantelevision.
The25-minutefilmtitled"TheDopingTrap"wasdistributedtojournalistsinadvance
ofitspremieronthestate-ownedsportchannelMatchTV.ItprofilesfourRussian
athletesalongwithdrugtestingsupervisorswhocountertheclaimsofStepanova
andRodchenkov,whileallegingtheyhavebeenvictimsofanelaborateset-up.
From:MartaBurachok<[email protected]>
Subject:Russiastate-sponsoreddopingacrossmajorityofOlympicsports,claimsreport-BBCSport
http://www.bbc.com/sport/36823453
Russiastate-sponsoreddopingacrossmajorityof
Olympicsports,claimsreport
ThereportlooksintoclaimsdozensofRussianathletesweredopedinthebuild-uptoSochi2014
Russiaoperatedastate-sponsoreddopingprogrammeforfouryearsacrossthe"vast
majority"ofsummerandwinterOlympicsports,claimsanewreport.
Itwas"plannedandoperated"fromlate2011-includingthebuild-uptoLondon2012-and
continuedthroughtheSochi2014WinterOlympicsuntilAugust2015.
AninvestigationcommissionedbytheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)saysRussia'ssports
ministry"directed,controlledandoversaw"manipulationofurinesamplesprovidedbyitsathletes.
ItsaysRussianathletesbenefitedfromwhatthereportcalledthe"DisappearingPositive
Methodology",wherebypositivedopingsampleswouldgomissing.
InternationalOlympicCommittee(IOC)presidentThomasBachdescribedthecommission's
findingsasa"shockingandunprecedentedattackontheintegrityofsportandontheOlympic
Games"andpledgedtoenforcethe"toughestsanctionsavailable"againstthoseimplicated.
TheIOCwilldecideonTuesdayaboutany"provisionalmeasuresandsanctions"fortheRio
Olympics,whichstarton5August.
Amind-blowinglevelofcorruptionwithinbothRussiansportandgovernmentthat
goesrighttothefieldofplay
TravisTygartUSAnti-DopingAgency
Thecommission,ledbyCanadianlawprofessorandsportslawyerDrRichardMcLaren,lookedinto
allegationsmadebytheformerheadofRussia'snationalanti-dopinglaboratory.
GrigoryRodchenkovclaimedhedopeddozensofathletesbeforethe2014WinterOlympics,which
wereheldinSochi,Russia.
Rodchenkov-describedbytheKremlinasa"scandalous"formerofficial-alsoallegedhehadbeen
helpedbytheRussiansecretservice,theFSB.
Heclaimedtheyhadworkedouthowtoopenandresealsupposedlytamper-proofbottlesthatwere
usedforstoringurinesamplessothecontentscouldbereplacedwith"clean"urine.
McLarensentarandomamountofstoredsamplesfrom"protectedRussianathletes"atSochi2014
toananti-dopinglaboratoryinLondontoseeiftheyhadscratchmarksaroundthenecksofthe
bottlesthatwouldindicatetheyhadbeenmanipulated.
McLarensaid"100%ofthebottleshadbeenscratched"butaddedthatwould"nothavebeenvisible
totheuntrainedeye".
Hesaidhehad"unwaveringconfidence"inallofhisfindings.
dopingflowchart
Thedamningreportdoesnotmakeanyrecommendations,butwillfuelcallsforacompletebanon
Russiafromthe2016SummerOlympics.
WadahasrecommendedtheIOC"declineentries,forRio2016,ofallathletes"submittedbythe
RussianOlympicCommitteeandtheRussianParalympicCommittee.Russiangovernmentofficials
shouldalsobebannedfromthissummer'sGames,itsaid.
WadapresidentSirCraigReediecalledthe"scopeandscale"ofthefindingsa"realhorrorstory",
addinghewas"encouraged"the"correctdecision"wouldbetakebytheIOC.
"I'mnotsurethatthesystemisbroken,"ReedietoldBBCRadio5live."Butifyouaredetermined
tocheat,youcangetroundthesystem.Wecan'tsitbackonthesituationwehavetoworkwith
Russianofficialstochangethecultureinthatcountry."
HowdidRussiareact?
PresidentVladimirPutinmadetheSochiGamesashowcaseeventandspentmorethan$50bn
(37.7bn)stagingthem.
OnMonday,PutinsaidofficialsnamedintheMcLarenreportwouldbesuspended,pendinga
thoroughinvestigation.
ButastatementreleasedbytheKremlincriticisedthereportas"accusationsagainstRussian
athletes"basedonthethetestimonyof"apersonwithascandalousreputation".
Italsowarnedofa"dangerousrecurrenceofinterferenceofpoliticsinsport".
PutinhasaskedWadatoprovide"morecomplete,objective,evidence-basedinformation"to
Russianinvestigators.
Analysis
BBCsportseditorDanRoan:
"HowcouldallthishavegoneonundertheirnosesinaWada-accreditedlab?Whydidittakea
whistleblowertounearththecorruption?AndwillthisscandalsplittheOlympicmovementbeyond
repair?"
BBCRadio5livesportsnewscorrespondentRichardConway:
"It'salotworsethanpeoplewereexpecting.I'vereadthroughsomeofthereportand580positive
testswerecoveredupacross30differentsports.WeareintotheworldofJamesBond-style
espionage."
Theclaims
Russiadecidedtocheatfollowingthe"veryabysmal"medalcountof15attheVancouver
2010WinterOlympics
Itbeganmakingpositivedrugtestsdisappearfromitsanti-dopinglaboratoriesinlate2011
BeforetheWinterOlympicsinSochi,Russiacreatedastoragebankofclean,frozenurine
Russia'ssecurityservice,theFSB,workedinabuildingnexttotheSochilaboratory,swapping
positiveurinesamplesforcleannegativeonesthrougha"mousehole",addingtablesaltto
makethemweighthesame
AkeyFSBagenthadaccesstotheSochianti-dopinglaboratory,disguisedasasewageand
plumbingcontractor
But,inswappingurinesamples,theFSBagentsleftminisculetoolmarksonthebottles-later
foundbyMcLaren'sinvestigatorsusingamicroscope
TheMoscowlaboratorydestroyed8,000samplesithelddatedpriorto10September2014
Reaction
UnitedStatesAnti-DopingAgencychiefTravisTygart:
"TheMcLarenReporthasconcluded,beyondareasonabledoubt,amind-blowinglevelofcorruption
withinbothRussiansportandgovernmentthatgoesrighttothefieldofplayandmost
importantly,ourheartsgoouttoathletesfromallovertheworldwhowererobbedoftheirOlympic
dreams."
BritishOlympic400msilvermedallistRogerBlackonBBCRadio5live:
"It'saboutasbadasitcouldpossiblybe.I'mnotnaive,Iknowcertainpeoplewilltakedrugs,but
I'vealwayssaidthisisaminorityofpeople.Theproblemnow,whenyou'relookingataRussian
athlete,isyouwon'tbethinkingthat."
Britain'smarathonworldrecordholderPaulaRadcliffeonBBCRadio5live:
"Ithinkthatalevelofinstitutionaliseddoping,ofinstitutionalisedcheatingandfraudtosport,which
hasdonesuchdamagetoeverysportgloballyhastobepunishedstrongly.
"UnfortunatelytherewillbesomeinnocentathletesfromRussiathatwillsufferfromthatban,but
becauseofthescaleofit,andbecauseofthefactwedon'tknowwhoiscleaninRussia,becauseit'sso
badthereandwedon'tknowwhowecantrust,thenIthinkithastobethatstrong."
BritishEuropean10,000mchampionJoPaveyonBBCRadio5live:
"It'sjustawful.YoufeelsorryforanycleanathletesinRussiawhohaveputtheirheartsandsouls
intoqualifyingfortheOlympics.Atthesametime,somanyareinthissystemthatastrongmessage
needstobesentout."
LordCoe,presidentoftheIAAF,athletics'worldgoverningbody:
"TheinstitutionalisedandsystematicdopinginRussianathleticsisthereasontheIAAFsuspended,
andthenupheldthesuspensionof,RussiaAthleticsFederation'smembershipandconsequentlythe
exclusionoftheirathletesfrominternationalcompetition."
UKAnti-DopingchiefexecutiveNicoleSapstead:
"Nowisthetimefortheentiresportingcommunitytocometogethertofindawayforwardand
ensuretherightprocesses,legislationandsafeguardsareinplacetoprotecttherightsofallathletes
toclean,fairandhonestcompetition."
InternationalParalympicCommitteepresidentSirPhilipCraven:
"Wearetrulyshocked,appalledanddeeplysaddenedattheextentofthestate-sponsoreddoping
programmeimplementedinRussiaaheadofSochi2014.ThefindingsoftheMcLarenReportmark
averydarkdayforsport.
"Afteraninitialreviewofthereport,wenotethe35"disappearing"positivesamplesfrom
Paralympicsportbetween2012and2015andhavesentalettertoWadaandthereport'sauthor
RichardMcLarenseekingfurtherinformationonthesesamples."
UKsportsministerTraceyCrouch:
"ProfessorMcLaren'sreporthasexposedtheextremelengthssomewillgotoinordertocheat.This
shockingreportisawake-upcalltothesportingworld."
BillSweeney,BritishOlympicAssociationchief,andBenHawes,chairoftheBOAAthletes'
Commission(jointstatement):
"Thisreportrealisestheworstfearsofcleanathleteseverywhere."
GaryAnderson,coachoftheBritishbobsleighteam,toldBBCRadio4'sPM:
"AtSochi,wewerebeatentoamedalbytwoRussiansleds.Therevelationsaregreaterthanwe
anticipatedsothere'salotmorequestionstobeasked."
ThesportsthatbenefitedfromRussia'sstatesponsored'DisappearingPositiveMethodology&quot
ThesportsthatbenefitedfromRussia'sstatesponsored'DisappearingPositiveMethodology"
WhataboutLondon2012?
ThereportsaidRussia's"DisappearingPositiveMethodology"workedwhenanalysiscouldbedone
attheMoscowlaboratory.
Butataninternationalevent-suchasLondon2012,theAthleticsWorldChampionshipsof2013,or
theSwimmingWorldChampionshipsof2015-Russiahadtoadaptitsmethods.
Thereportfound:
DrRodchenkov's"cocktail"ofsteroidswasgiventoathletespriortoLondon2012.Theywere
drugshefeltwereleastlikelytobedetected
FortysixRussianathleteswithperformance-enhancingdrugsintheirsystemwerepre-tested
from17-22July2012
Theywerecategorisedasred-willtestpositiveandshouldbereplacedamber-tracesof
drugs,butshouldbeclearforLondongreen-clean
Allrecordsofpositivetestswerefalsifiedintonegativeresults
Athleteswerealsogivenmicro-dosesofblood-boostererythropoietin(EPO)untiltwoweeks
beforetheyleftforLondon
Elevenofthe46athleteswonmedalsatLondon2012-somehavesincebeenbannedandhad
theirmedalsstripped
InJune2016,theIOCorderedretestsofLondon2012samplesandeightathletestested
positive
Howhighupdidthisgo?
Itwas"inconceivable"thatRussia'ssportsminister,VitalyMutko,wasnotawareofthedoping
cover-upscheme,accordingtothereport.
Mutkohasbeeninpositionsince2008.Heisamemberoftheexecutivecommitteeoffootball's
worldgoverningbody,Fifa,andchairstheorganisingcommitteeofthe2018WorldCup,tobeheld
inRussia.
ThereportclaimedMutkopersonallyintervenedtocoverupadopingcaseof"atleast"one
overseasfootballplayerintheRussianleagueandthat11positivetestsbyRussiafootballers
disappeared.
However,itwasMutko'sdeputy,YuriNagornykh,whowasadvisedof"everypositiveanalytical
finding"fromtheMoscowlaboratoryfrom2011onwards-in"totalviolation"ofWadarules-and
decidedwhotoprotect.
DanRoaninsideMoscowdrug-testinglab
DanRoanreportsfromthediscreditedMoscowanti-dopinglaboratory
Whywasthereportcommissioned?
ThecommissionwassetuptolookintoRodchenkov'sclaimsthathedopeddozensofathletes,
includingatleast15medallists,inthebuild-uptoSochi.
HeclaimsthiswastheresultofanelaborateandorchestratedplotwiththeRussiangovernment,
whichexploiteditshoststatustosubvertthedrug-testingprogramme.Thecountry'sgovernment
hasrepeatedlydeniedtheclaims.
Rodchenkov,nowinhidingintheUS,alsoallegeshedopedathletesbeforethe2012Olympicsin
London,the2013WorldAthleticsChampionshipsinMoscowandthe2015WorldSwimming
ChampionshipsinKazan.
AresomeRussiansbannedalready?
Yes.Thecountry'strackandfieldathletesarebarredfromcompetinginRioafterthebodythat
governsworldathletics,theInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations,votedinJuneto
maintainaglobalcompetitionbanontheAll-RussiaAthleticFederation(Araf).
ArafhopestooverturnthesuspensionandwillfindoutbyThursdayifitsappealtotheCourtof
ArbitrationforSporthasbeensuccessful.
Whateverhappens,asmallnumberofRussianathleteswhocanprovetheyarecleanwillbeallowed
tocompeteattheRioGamesundertheflagoftheIOC.
Subject:Russian'Gun-For-Hire'inDC/+[ED:TarasAseemsworriedaboutRUinfluenceinDCfromthelooksofit,
hemayberight/SEEBELOW]
To:
Russian'Gun-For-Hire'LurksInShadowsOfWashington'sLobbyingWorld
http://www.rferl.org/content/rinat-akmetshin-russia-gun-for-hire-washington-lobbying-magnitsky-
browder/27863265.html
[...InternationalEurasianInstituteforEconomicandPoliticalResearchtohelpexpanddemocracyandtheruleof
lawinEurasia.
AzeriDemocracyInitiativeFoundation,HumanRightsAccountabilityGlobalInitiativeFoundation,...]
AnneApplebaum
Withsomuchelseontheirplate,amazingthatTrumpteamprioritizesitspro-RussianpolicyinUkraine
JuliaDavis
Trumphaspaidverylittleattentiontothesubstanceoftheplatform,exceptforarmingUkraine.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/donald-trump-working-for-russia.htmlpic.twitter.com/VF5Mi6dKP7
TopTrumpadviserdefendspaymentforRussianspeakingengagement
YahooNewsVideoJuly18,2016
Lt.Gen.MichaelFlynn,formerdirectoroftheDefenseIntelligenceAgencyandatopDonaldTrumpadviser,
defendspaymentforaspeakingengagementinRussiatoYahooNews'ChiefInvestigativeCorrespondentMichael
Isikoff.
http://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-supporter-defends-payment-russian-175611942.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
*****************************
*****************************
What???
ECFR
Read@ECFR@RichardGowan1'sarticle"Withfriendslike#Turkey,theUSneedsRussiain#Syria"
in@WPReview
WithFriendsLikeTurkey,theU.S.NeedsRussiainSyria
RichardGowanMonday,July18,2016
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/19382/with-friends-like-turkey-the-u-s-needs-russia-in-syria?
utm_content=bufferdcd31&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
ADD:ClintonEmailScandal:HasPutinPlayedAllHis
Cards?
ByIrinaSlav-Jul07,2016,10:53AMCDThttp://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Clinton-Email-
Scandal-Has-Putin-Played-All-His-Cards.html
Allanimalsareequalbutsomearemoreequalthanothers.ThisbrutalquotefromGeorgeOrwellsAnimalFarmcomestomind
instinctivelyinlightofthelatestdevelopmentsaroundtheinvestigationintoformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonsuseof
privateemailserversduringherterminoffice.
ATuesdaystatementbyFBIsdirectorJamesComeydroppedabombshell:herecommendednochargesagainstClintonand
referredthematterovertotheDepartmentofJustice.Many,bothcriticsandsupportersofHillaryClinton,expectedthis.The
anticipationfactor,however,doesnotchangethefactthatinhisstatement,Comeymadearecommendationthatgoesagainstthe
law.
Hereswhathesaid.AfterdetailingtheactionsthattheFBIundertookinitsinvestigationanddescribingtheamountandtypeof
emailcommunicationtheyanalyzedidentifyingeightseparatetopsecretdocumentsandover100containingclassified
information,Comeysaid,AlthoughwedidnotfindclearevidencethatSecretaryClintonorhercolleaguesintendedtoviolate
lawsgoverningthehandlingofclassifiedinformation,thereisevidencethattheywereextremelycarelessintheirhandlingofvery
sensitive,highlyclassifiedinformation."
Now,extremecarelessnessispunishablebylaw,evenifitwasnotcommittedintentionally,whichseemstobethefocusof
ComeysrecommendationfornochargestobepressedagainsttheformerSecretaryofState.ZeroHedge,however,quotes
theU.S.PenalCode,whichspecificallystatesthatintentisnotanecessaryprerequisiteforprosecutionincaseofmishandlingof
sensitiveinformation.
Whatsmorealarming,however,isComeysadmissionthat,duetoacombinationoffactors,theFBIassessedtherehadbeena
possibilityforhostileactorstogainaccesstoHillaryClintonspersonalemailaccount.EnterDefenseandForeignAffairsand
theirreportonwarningsthatRussiahasinterceptedsensitiveinformationfromClintonsemailcommunicationandisreadyto
releasethemasproofofClintonsviolationofthelaw.Related:DiminishingOutagesCouldExacerbateOilsFall
DefenseandForeignAffairsquotedsourcesfromtheintelligencecommunitythatsaidthedecisiononwhethertoreleasethe
informationwillbemadebyPresidentPutinatatimeheconsidersrightandthatmeanwhile,bothheandthosearoundhimare
gettingannoyedwiththeslowpaceatwhichtheinvestigationintoClintonsemailcommunicationpracticesismoving.
HillaryClintonhasmadenosecretofherattitudetowardsRussia,soMoscowclearlyhasreasonstoworryaboutfurthertensions
shouldClintonbecomePresident.Inlightofthis,itsnosurprisethatDFAssourceshavesuggestedthatthesensitiveinformation
wouldbereleasedatsuchamomentastomakeamaximumimpactonthepresidentialrace.
ThequestionofwhetherornottheformerSecretaryofStateviolatedsensitive-information-handlinglegislationseemstobe
settled.Sincesheiswhosheisamoreequalanimalanindictmentremainsunlikely.Butitsonethingtotalkabout110emails
containingconfidentialinformationoreightemailscontainingtopsecretinfo.
Thisisquiteabstract.IfRussia,however,decidestowavesomespecificconfidentialdocumentsinWashingtonsface,thingswill
stopbeingsoabstract.
Ofcourse,therearethosewhothinkRussiaisbluffing.Yet,DirectorComeymadeitprettyclearinhisstatementthathackinginto
aprivateemailserverismoreorlessapieceofcakeforsomeintelligenceservices.IfitwassoeasytointerceptClintons
communication,doesanyonedoubtthatMoscowwouldhesitatetodoit?StaytunedformoreClintonleaksasNovember
approaches.
GOP2016platformDRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_146887_0001.pdf
PLATFORM
REPUBLICAN
2016
H H H
H H H H
We dedicate this platform with admiration and gratitude
H H H H H
To all who stand strong in the face of danger
So that the American people may be protected against it
The men and women of our military,
of our law enforcement, and the first responders
of every community in our land
And to their families.

Paid for by the Committee on Arrangements for the 2016 Republican National Convention
Not Authorized By Any Candidate Or Candidates Committee
www.gopconvention2016.com
R E P U B L I C A N P L A T F O R M 2 0 1 6
Preamble
With this platform, we the Republican Party

reaffirm the principles that unite us in a common purpose.
We believe in American exceptionalism. American people are optimistic.

We believe the United States of America is This platform lays out in clear language the
unlike any other nation on earth. path to making America great and united again.
We believe America is exceptional because of For the past 8 years America has been led in the
our historic role first as refuge, then as defender, wrong direction.
and now as exemplar of liberty for the world to see. Our economy has become unnecessarily weak
We affirm as did the Declaration of with stagnant wages. People living paycheck to
Independence: that all are created equal, endowed paycheck are struggling, sacrificing, and suffering.
by their Creator with inalienable rights of life, liberty, Americans have earned and deserve a strong
and the pursuit of happiness. and healthy economy.
We believe in the Constitution as our founding Our standing in world affairs has declined
document. significantly our enemies no longer fear us and
We believe the Constitution was written not as our friends no long trust us.
a flexible document, but as our enduring covenant. People want and expect an America that is the
We believe our constitutional system limited most powerful and respected country on the face
government, separation of powers, federalism, of the earth.
and the rights of the people must be preserved The men and women of our military remain
uncompromised for future generations. the worlds best. The have been shortchanged in
We believe political freedom and economic numbers, equipment, and benefits by a Commander
freedom are indivisible. in Chief who treats the Armed Forces and our
When political freedom and economic freedom veterans as a necessary inconvenience.
are separated both are in peril; when united, they The President and the Democratic party have
are invincible. dismantled Americans system of healthcare. They
We believe that people are the ultimate resource have replaced it with a costly and complicated
and that the people, not the government, are the scheme that limits choices and takes away our
best stewards of our countrys God-given natural freedom.
resources. The President and the Democratic party have
As Americans and as Republicans we wish for abandoned their promise of being accountable to
peace so we insist on strength. We will make the American people.
America safe. We seek friendship with all peoples They have nearly doubled the size of the
and all nations, but we recognize and are prepared national debt.
to deal with evil in the world. They refuse to control our borders but try
Based on these principles, this platform is an to control our schools, farms, businesses, and
invitation and a roadmap. It invites every American even our religious institutions. They have directly
to join us and shows the path to a stronger, safer, attacked the production of American energy and
and more prosperous America. the industry-related jobs that have sustained families
This platform is optimistic because the and communities.
i
The President has been regulating to death And this means returning to the people and
a free market economy that he does not like and the states the control that belongs to them. It is the
does not understand. He defies the laws of the control and the power to make their own decisions
United States by refusing to enforce those with about whats best for themselves and their families
which he does not agree. And he appoints judges and communities.
who legislate from the bench rather than apply the This platform is many things: A handbook for
law. returning decision-making to the people. A guide
We, as Republicans and Americans, cannot to the constitutional rights of every American. And
allow this to continue. That is why the many sections a manual for the kind of sustained growth that will
of this platform affirm our trust in the people, our bring opportunity to all those on the sidelines of our
faith in their judgment, and our determination to society.
help them take back their country. Every time we sing, God Bless America, we
This means removing the power from unelected, are asking for help. We ask for divine help that our
unaccountable government. country can fulfill its promise. We earn that help by
This means relieving the burden and expense of recommitting ourselves to the ideas and ideals that
punishing government regulations. are the true greatness of America.
Senator John Barrasso

CHAIRMAN
Governor Mary Fallin Representative Virginia Foxx

CO-CHAIR CO-CHAIR
ii
Table of Contents
1
Restoring the American Dream
9
A Rebirth of Constitutional Government
17
Americas Natural Resources:
Agriculture, Energy, and the Environment
23
Government Reform
31
Great American Families, Education,
Healthcare, and Criminal Justice
41
America Resurgent
iii

H H H H H
Rebuilding the Economy and Creating Jobs erations ago before President Reagan was elected
We are the party of a growing economy that in 1980. Business closures have exceeded business
gives everyone a chance in life, an opportunity to startups throughout the Obama Presidency. Strong
learn, work, and realize the prosperity freedom growth, more jobs, increasing incomes, and expand-
makes possible. ing opportunity are all in short supply under Presi-
Government cannot create prosperity, though dent Obama and the Democrats.
government can limit or destroy it. Prosperity is the We repudiate the absurd idea this is the best
product of self-discipline, enterprise, saving and in- America can do. The American people rejected that
vestment by individuals, but it is not an end in itself. nonsense the last time it was offered, in the historic
Prosperity provides the means by which citizens election of 1980, and we ask them to join us now
and their families can maintain their independence to again repudiate the false gospel of Americas di-
from government, raise their children by their own minishment and retreat. We offer instead our vision
values, practice their faith, and build communities of an opportunity society based on the economics
of cooperation and mutual respect. It is also the of inclusion.
foundation for our nations global leadership, for it
is the vigor of our economy which makes possible Fair and Simple Taxes for Growth
our military strength and our national security. Republicans consider the establishment of a
Pundits and Democrats tell us that we should pro-growth tax code a moral imperative. More than
accept the new normal of a slow-growing economy. any other public policy, the way government raises
The consequences are too dire to ever accept that: revenue how much, at what rates, under what
President Obama and his party circumstances, from whom,
will set a record of being the first and for whom has the great-
modern president ever to leave Republicans consider est impact on our economys
office without a single calendar
year of three percent economic
the establishment of a performance. It powerfully in-
fluences the level of economic
growth. As a result, the number pro-growth tax code a growth and job creation, which
of Americans living in poverty moral imperative. translates into the level of op-
has increased by 7 million, our portunity for those who would
nations economy has lost nearly otherwise be left behind. Get-
$8 trillion of cumulative output compared with an ting our tax system right will be the most impor-
average recovery, and the economic growth short- tant factor in driving the entire economy back to
fall has left a cumulative real after-tax per person prosperity.
personal income shortfall of nearly $17,000 com- The current tax code is rightly the object of
pared with an average recovery. both anger and mockery. Its length is exceeded
Under President Obama and the Democrats, only by its complexity. We must start anew. That
new private-sector jobs are three million below will be an enormous undertaking and, if it is to suc-
where they should have been with just average ceed, it must command the attention and approval
modern post-recession growth. Our labor force of the American people. It cannot be engineered
participation rate has plunged to at or below 63 from the top down, but must have a common sense
percent for far too long, lows last seen two gen- approach, and be simplified.
1
GOP2016platformDRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_146887_0001.
Our proposal is straightforward. Wherever tax in part to high corporate tax rates and increasing
rates penalize thrift or discourage investment, they regulatory burdens and uncertainty.
must be lowered. Wherever current provisions of American businesses now face the worlds
the code are disincentives for economic growth, highest corporate tax rates. Thats like putting lead
they must be changed. We will not divide the shoes on your cross-country team. It reduces com-
American people into winners and losers. We will panies ability to compete overseas, encourages
eliminate as many special interest provisions and them to move abroad, lessens their investment,
loopholes as possible and curb corporate welfare, cripples job creation here at home, lowers Ameri-
especially where their erosion of the tax base has can wages, and fosters the avoidance of tax liability
created pressure for higher rates. We will be mindful without actually increasing tax revenues. A more
of the burdens on families with children and the im- damaging policy is hard to imagine. We propose to
pact on an aging population. We will seek simplicity level the international playing field by lowering the
and clarity so that every taxpayer can understand corporate tax rate to be on a par with, or below,
how much of their income is consumed by the fed- the rates of other industrial nations. We endorse
eral government. the recommendation of the National Commission
We will welcome all to this enterprise to on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, as well as the
discuss, debate, challenge, and amend so that current Administrations Export Council, to switch
together we can restore economic growth for the to a territorial system of taxation so that profits
American people and, even more important, renew earned and taxed abroad may be repatriated for
their faith in the future. job-creating investment here at home. We believe
American companies should be headquartered in
Our Tax Principles America. We should reduce barriers to accomplish-
To ensure that past abuses will not be repeated, ing that goal.
we assert these fundamental principles. We oppose
retroactive taxation. We condemn attempts by ac- A Winning Trade Policy
tivist judges at any level of government to seize the International trade is crucial for all sectors of
power of the purse from the peoples elected repre- Americas economy. Massive trade deficits are not.
sentatives by ordering higher taxes. We envision a worldwide multilateral agreement
We oppose tax policies that deliberately di- among nations committed to the principles of open
vide Americans or promote class warfare. Because markets, what has been called a Reagan Economic
of the vital role of religious organizations, charities, Zone, in which free trade will truly be fair trade for
and fraternal benevolent societies in fostering gen- all concerned.
erosity and patriotism, they should not be subject We need better negotiated trade agreements
to taxation and donations to them should remain that put America first. When trade agreements have
deductible. To guard against hypertaxation of the been carefully negotiated with friendly democra-
American people in any restructuring of the federal cies, they have resulted in millions of new jobs here
tax system, any value added tax or national sales at home supported by our exports. When those
tax must be tied to the simultaneous repeal of the agreements do not adequately protect U.S. inter-
Sixteenth Amendment, which established the fed- ests, U.S. sovereignty, or when they are violated with
eral income tax. impunity, they must be rejected.
We cannot allow foreign governments to limit
A Competitive America American access to their markets while stealing our
Competitiveness equals jobs. That equation designs, patents, brands, know-how, and technol-
governs our policies regarding U.S. corporations ogy. We cannot allow China to continue its currency
in the global economy. Private investment is a key manipulation, exclusion of U.S. products from gov-
driver of economic growth and job creation. After ernment purchases, and subsidization of Chinese
falling dramatically during the recession, private in- companies to thwart American imports. The cur-
vestment has recovered at a disappointing pace due rent Administrations way of dealing with these vio-
2
lations of world trade standards has been a virtual small business loans are made by community banks.
surrender. From start-ups foregone to home loans not made,
Republicans understand that you can succeed Dodd-Franks excessive regulation and burden-
in a negotiation only if you are willing to walk away some requirements have helped contribute to the
from it. A Republican president will insist on parity slow economy we all endure today under President
in trade and stand ready to implement countervail- Obama and the Democrats.
ing duties if other countries refuse to cooperate. Community banks are essential to ensuring
At the same time, we look to broaden our small businesses have easy and affordable ac-
trade agreements with countries which share our cess to the capital they need to grow and prosper.
values and commitment to fairness, along with Community banks should be relieved of excessive
transparency in our commercial and business regulations. We support removing roadblocks and
practices. In pursuing that objective, the American regulations that prevent access to capital.
people demand transparency, full disclosure, The worst of Dodd-Frank is the Consumer
protection of our national sovereignty, and tough Financial Protection Bureau, deliberately designed
negotiation on the part of those who are supposed to be a rogue agency. It answers to neither Congress
to advance the interests of U.S. workers. Significant nor the executive, has its own guaranteed funding
trade agreements should not be rushed or outside the appropriations process, and uses its
undertaken in a Lame Duck Congress. slush fund to steer settlements to politically favored
groups.
Freeing Financial Markets Its Director has dictatorial powers unique in the
The Republican vision for American banking American Republic. Its regulatory harassment of
calls for establishing transparent, efficient markets local and regional banks, the source of most home
where consumers can obtain loans they need at rea- mortgages and small business loans, advantages
sonable rates based on market conditions. Unfortu- big banks and makes it harder for Americans to buy
nately, in response to the financial institutions crisis a home. Its one-size-fits-all approach to every issue
of 2008-2009, the Democratic-controlled Congress threatens the diversity of the countrys financial sys-
enacted the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Pro- tem and would leave us with just a few enormous
tection Act, otherwise known as Dodd-Frank. They institutions, as in many European countries.
did not let the crisis go to waste but used it as an If the Bureau is not abolished, it should be sub-
excuse to establish unprecedented government jected to congressional appropriation. In that way,
control over the nations financial markets. The con- consumer protection in the financial markets can be
sequences have been bad for everyone except fed- advanced through measures that are both effective
eral regulators. and constitutional. Any settlements arising from
Rather than address the cause of the crisis statutory violations by financial institutions must be
the governments own housing policies the new used to make whole the harmed consumers, with
law extended government control over the econ- any remaining proceeds given to the general Trea-
omy by creating new unaccountable bureaucracies. sury. Diversion of settlement funds to politically-
Predictably, central planning of our financial sector connected parties should be a criminal offense.
has not created jobs, it has killed them. It has not Republicans believe that no financial institution
limited risks, it has created more. It has not encour- is too big to fail. We support legislation to ensure
aged economic growth, it has shackled it. that the problems of any financial institution can be
Since the enactment of Dodd-Frank, the num- resolved through the Bankruptcy Code. We endorse
ber of community banks has significantly declined, prudent regulation of the banking system to ensure
and the cost and complexity of complying with that FDIC-regulated banks are properly capitalized
the law has created impediments to the remaining and taxpayers are protected against bailouts. We
banks ability to support the customers they serve. will end the governments use of disparate impact
From 13,000 community banks in 1985, only 1,900 theory in enforcing anti-discrimination laws with re-
remain. Still, the majority of agricultural loans and gard to lending.
3
Responsible Homeownership and regulations, especially those dealing with the envi-
Rental Opportunities ronment, that make it harder and more costly for
Homeownership expands personal liberty, Americans to rent, buy, or sell homes.
builds communities, and helps Americans create For nine years, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
wealth. The American Dream is not a stale slogan. have been in conservatorship and the current
It is the lived reality that expresses the aspirations of Administration and Democrats have prevented
all our people. It means a decent place to live, a safe any effort to reform them. Their corrupt business
place to raise kids, a welcoming place to retire. It model lets shareholders and executives reap huge
bespeaks the quiet pride of those who work hard to profits while the taxpayers cover all loses. The
shelter their family and, in the process, create caring utility of both agencies should be reconsidered as a
neighborhoods. Republican administration clears away the jumble of
The Great Recession devastated the housing subsidies and controls that complicate and distort
market. U.S. taxpayers paid billions to rescue Fred- home-buying.
die Mac and Fannie Mae, the latter managed and The Federal Housing Administration, which
controlled by senior officials from the Carter and provides taxpayer-backed guarantees in the
Clinton Administrations, and to cover the losses of mortgage market, should no longer support high-
the poorly-managed Federal Housing Administra- income individuals, and the public should not be
tion. Millions lost their homes, millions more lost financially exposed by risks taken by FHA officials.
value in their homes. We will end the government mandates that
More than six million households had to move required Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and federally-
from homeownership to renting. Rental costs esca- insured banks to satisfy lending quotas to specific
lated so that today nearly 12 million families spend groups. Discrimination should have no place in the
more than 50 percent of their incomes just on rent. mortgage industry.
The national homeownership rate has sharply fallen Zoning decisions have always been, and must
and the rate for minority households and young remain, under local control. The current Administra-
adults has plummeted. So many remain unem- tion is trying to seize control of the zoning process
ployed or underemployed, and for the lucky ones through its Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing
with jobs, rising rents make it harder to save for a regulation. It threatens to undermine zoning laws in
mortgage. order to socially engineer every community in the
There is a growing sense that our national stan- country. While the federal government has a legiti-
dard of living will never be as high as it was in the mate role in enforcing non-discrimination laws, this
past. We understand that pessimism but do not regulation has nothing to do with proven or alleged
share it, for we believe that sound public policies discrimination and everything to do with hostility to
can restore growth to our economy, vigor to the the self-government of citizens.
housing market, and hope to those who are now on
the margins of prosperity. America on the Move
Our goal is to advance responsible home- Our countrys investments in transportation
ownership while guarding against the abuses that and other public construction have traditionally
led to the housing collapse. We must scale back been non-partisan. Everyone agrees on the need
the federal role in the housing market, promote re- for clean water and safe roads, rail, bridges, ports,
sponsibility on the part of borrowers and lenders, and airports. President Eisenhower established a
and avoid future taxpayer bailouts. Reforms should tradition of Republican leadership in this regard by
provide clear and prudent underwriting standards championing the creation of the interstate highway
and guidelines on predatory lending and acceptable system. In recent years, bipartisan cooperation led
lending practices. Compliance with regulatory stan- to major legislation improving the nations ports and
dards should constitute a legal safe harbor to guard waterways.
against opportunistic litigation by trial lawyers. Our Republican majority ended the practice
We call for a comprehensive review of federal of earmarks, which often diverted transportation
4
spending to politically favored projects. In the cur- we will remove legal roadblocks to public-private
rent Congress, Republicans have secured the lon- partnership agreements that can save the taxpay-
gest reauthorization of the Highway Trust Fund in a ers money and bring outside investment to meet a
decade and are advancing a comprehensive reform communitys needs. With most of the states increas-
of the Federal Aviation Administration to make fly- ing their own funding for transportation, we oppose
ing easier and more secure. a further increase in the federal gas tax.
The current Administration has a different ap- Although unionization has never been per-
proach. It subordinates civil engineering to social mitted in any government agency concerned with
engineering as it pursues an exclusively urban vi- national security, the current Administration has
sion of dense housing and government transit. Its reversed that policy for the Transportation Secu-
ill-named Livability Initiative is meant to coerce rity Administration. We will correct that mistake.
people out of their cars. This is the same men- Americans understand that, with the threat of ter-
tality that once led Congress to impose by fiat a rorism, their travel may encounter delays, but un-
single maximum speed limit for the entire nation, acceptably long lines at security checks can have
from Manhattan to Montana. Our 1980 Republican the same impact as a collapsed bridge or washed
Platform pledged to repeal that out highway. TSA employees
edict. After the election of Ron- should always be seen as guard-
ald Reagan, we did. We envision ians of the publics safety, not as
Now we make the same just another part of the federal
pledge regarding the current government at all workforce.
problems in transportation pol- levels as a partner Amtrak is an extremely
icy. We propose to remove from expensive railroad for the
the Highway Trust Fund pro- with individuals American taxpayers, who must
grams that should not be the and industries subsidize every ticket. The fed-
business of the federal govern- eral government should allow
ment.
in technological private ventures to provide pas-
More than a quarter of the progress, not a senger service in the northeast
Funds spending is diverted from
its original purpose. One fifth of
meddlesome monitor. corridor. The same holds true
with regard to high-speed and
its funds are spent on mass tran- intercity rail across the country.
sit, an inherently local affair that We reaffirm our intention to end
serves only a small portion of the population, con- federal support for boondoggles like Californias
centrated in six big cities. Additional funds are used high-speed train to nowhere.
for bike-share programs, sidewalks, recreational
trails, landscaping, and historical renovations. Other Building the Future: Technology
beneficiaries of highway money are ferry boats, the The digital revolution has transformed how we
federal lands access program, scenic byways, and work, learn, sell, shop, socialize in short, how we
education initiatives. These worthwhile enterprises live. Technological change drives our positions with
should be funded through other sources. regard to STEM education, business and corporate
We propose to phase out the federal transit involvement with educational certifications, work-
program and reform provisions of the National En- force issues, privacy, cyber and national security, en-
vironmental Policy Act which can delay and drive ergy development, regulation, and other elements
up costs for transportation projects. We renew our of our campaign for growth and jobs. It is why we
call for repeal of the Davis-Bacon law, which limits propose to simplify the tax code, reduce corporate
employment and drives up construction and main- rates, transition to a territorial system, and create
tenance costs for the benefit of unions. Recognizing incentives for investment and innovation.
that, over time, additional revenue will be needed to We envision government at all levels as a part-
expand the carrying capacity of roads and bridges, ner with individuals and industries in technologi-
5
cal progress, not a meddlesome monitor. We want areas so that every American can fully participate
to create a business climate that rewards risk and in the global economy.
promotes innovation, a learning system that gives The public-private partnerships between
Americans the skills needed to seize the opportuni- NASA, the Department of Defense, and commercial
ties of the 21st century, and an international order companies have given us technological progress
that maintains a fair and open global market for that has reduced the cost of accessing space and
Americas goods and services. We intend to ad- extended Americas space leadership in the com-
vance policies that protect data privacy while fos- mercial, civil, and national security spheres. The
tering innovation and growth and ensuring the free entrepreneurship and innovation culture of the free
flow of data across borders. market is revitalizing the nations space capabilities,
Together, broadband and good ideas have saving taxpayer money, and advancing technology
become the 21st century engines of American in- critical to maintain Americas edge in space and in
genuity. Innovation, by its nature, is disruptive. In other fields.
challenging legacy forms of business, innovation To protect our national security interests and
creates new jobs, gives access to new markets, foster innovation and competitiveness, we must
opens opportunity to underserved populations, and sustain our preeminence in space by launching
expands consumer choice. Government must give more scientific missions, guaranteeing unfettered
Americas innovators the freedom to create and, on access, and ensuring that our space-related indus-
their merits, succeed or fail. tries remain a source of scientific leadership and
Our agenda includes balanced protections education.
for intellectual property, explained elsewhere in
this document. We intend to facilitate access to Building the Future: Americas Electric Grid
spectrum by paving the way for high-speed, next- Our nations interstate electric transmission
generation broadband deployment and competi- system has long been a catalyst for developing and
tion on the internet and for internet services. We delivering low cost energy while spurring economic
want government to encourage the sharing econ- growth throughout the United States The grid is
omy and on-demand platforms to compete in an aging, vulnerable to cyber and terrorist threats, and
open market, and we believe public policies should unprepared to serve our energy needs of tomorrow.
encourage the innovation and competition that are It should not take seven to ten years to plan and
essential for an Internet of Things to thrive. construct a transmission line. We support expedited
Government must keep pace with the technol- siting processes and the thoughtful expansion of
ogy deployed in the private sector. There is an ur- the grid so that consumers and businesses continue
gent need to modernize the federal governments to have access to affordable and reliable electricity.
legacy systems and to recruit the skilled technical
personnel who can advance the adoption of innova- Start-up Century: Small Business
tion in the public sector. At the cost of billions, the and Entrepreneurship
current Administration has done little to advance A central reason why the 20th century came
our goal of universal broadband coverage. That to be called the American Century was the ability
hurts rural America, where farmers, ranchers, and of individuals to invent and create in a land of free
small business people need connectivity to operate markets. Back then they were called risk-takers,
in real time with the worlds producers. Almost ten dreamers, and small business owners. Today they
million Americans have given up wired broadband are the entrepreneurs, independent contractors,
connections in just the last two years alone, and mil- and small business men and women of our new
lions more have never been connected in the first economy. Their innovation drives improvement and
place. forces long-established institutions to adapt or fade
We encourage public-private partnerships to away. Many of them are so young they remember
provide predictable support for connecting rural little if anything of the last century because dy-
6
namic progress does not look back. As in the past, the Federal Reserve remains insulated from politi-
they still create most new jobs and form the com- cal pressures and its decisions are based on sound
mercial network that holds communities together. economic principles and sound money rather than
Their enterprise is the lifeblood of our economy, but political pressures for easy money and loose credit.
it is weakening. Determined to crush the double-digit inflation
More businesses are closing in our country than that was part of the Carter Administrations eco-
are starting. Older firms are an increasing propor- nomic legacy, President Reagan, shortly after his
tion of companies. Productivity growth has slowed. inauguration, established a commission to consider
This is not the way to jumpstart a new era of growth. the feasibility of a metallic basis for U.S. currency. In
We need to consider the effect of capital gains rates 2012, facing the task of cleaning up the wreckage of
on the availability of venture capital, as well as the the current Administrations policies, we proposed a
positive impact of expensing on start-up firms. similar commission to investigate ways to set a fixed
We should reduce the occupational licensing value for the dollar.
laws that shut untold millions of potential workers With Republican leadership, the House of Rep-
out of entrepreneurial careers. We must overturn resentatives has passed legislation to set up just
the regulatory nightmare, created by the Dodd- such a commission. We recommend its enactment
Frank law, for the community banks and savings by the full Congress and the commissions careful
and loans that provide nearly half of all small- consideration of ways to secure the integrity of our
business loans and over three-quarters of all agricul- currency.
tural loans. Indeed, the world of the app economy
cries out for the comprehensive regulatory reform Workplace Freedom for a
proposed elsewhere in this platform. We must chal- 21st Century Workforce
lenge established interests and traditional business The greatest asset of the American economy
patterns to facilitate market entry of new business is the hard-working American. That is why our first
models, including inventive means of transport, de- priority is getting people back to work by fostering
livery, and communication. the kind of growth that creates jobs. That overarch-
As incubators of unconventional thinking, our ing goal unites all the sections of this platform. It
countrys existing research infrastructure the Na- runs through our commitments on education and
tional Labs, the National Institutes of Health, NASA, workforce development. It underlies our approach
and elements of the Defense Department have to welfare reform, regulatory reform, and our de-
the potential to form partnerships with small busi- termination to advance the kind of trade agree-
nesses to create an American Start-Up Century. ments that multiply opportunities for workers here
at home. It also impels us to challenge the anach-
The Federal Reserve ronistic labor laws that limit workers freedom and
Because the Federal Reserves monetary policy lock them into the workplace rules of their great-
decisions affect job creation, upward mobility for grandfathers.
workers, and equitable prosperity, they should be Instead of facilitating change, the current Ad-
transparent. Similarly, the Federal Reserves impor- ministration and its agents at the National Labor
tant role as a lender of last resort should also be Relations Board are determined to reverse it. They
carried out in a more transparent manner. The Re- are attacking the franchise model of business de-
publican Party will advance legislation that brings velopment, which is essential to the flexibility and
transparency and accountability to the Federal Re- creativity of the new economy. They are wielding
serve, the Federal Open Market Committee, and the provisions of the Fair Labor Standards Act from the
Federal Reserves dealing with foreign banks. 1930s, designed to fit a manufacturing workplace,
The first step is through an annual audit of to deny flexibility to both employers and employ-
the Federal Reserves activities. Such an audit ees. They have repealed union transparency rules
would need to be carefully implemented so that that allowed members to discover what was being
7
done with their dues. They have outlawed alterna- and energize a free enterprise economy.
tives to unions even when they were favored by the Minimum wage is an issue that should be han-
workers. dled at the state and local level.
Their Project Labor Agreements discriminate
against the overwhelming majority of workers by A Federal Workforce Serving the People
barring them from jobs on taxpayer-funded proj- The federal workforce is larger and more highly
ects. Their patronizing and controlling approach paid than ever. The taxpayers spend an average of
leaves workers in a form of peonage to the NLRB. $35,000 a year per employee on non-cash benefits,
We intend to restore fairness and common sense to triple the average non-cash compensation of the
that agency. average worker in the private sector. Federal em-
Technology has already created jobs that did ployees receive extraordinary pension benefits and
not exist fifteen years ago, and todays workers vacation time wildly out of line with those of the
need flexibility and family-friendly options to make private sector.
the most of them, especially portability in pension We urge Congress to bring federal compensa-
plans and health insurance. tion and benefits in line with the standards of most
We intend to encourage those trends by bring- American employees. A Republican administration
ing labor law into the 21st century. It should en- should streamline personnel procedures to expedite
courage cooperation between management and the firing of bad workers, tax cheats, and scammers.
workers, not conflict. All workers, including union The unionization of the federal workforce, first per-
members, must be free to accept raises and re- mitted by Democrat presidents in the 1960s, should
wards without veto power from union officials. All be reviewed by the appropriate congressional com-
unionized workers should be able to find out what mittees to examine its effects on the cost, quality,
is going on in their union trust funds and in their and performance of the civil service. Union repre-
executive compensation. We support the right of sentatives in the federal workforce should not be
states to enact Right-to-Work laws and call for a paid to conduct union business on the publics time.
national law to protect the economic liberty of the
modern workforce. Reducing the Federal Debt
All Americans deserve the opportunity to pur- Our national debt is a burden on our economy
sue their American dream free from discrimination. and families. The huge increase in the national
Clear nondiscrimination policies ensure all employ- debt demanded by and incurred during the current
ees have the chance to succeed based solely on Administration has placed a significant burden on
their merits. These policies are vital to creating an future generations. We must impose firm caps on
inclusive, innovative, and competitive workforce. future debt, accelerate the repayment of the trillions
Republicans believe that the employer- we now owe in order to reaffirm our principles of
employee relationship of the future will be built responsible and limited government, and remove
upon employee empowerment and workplace the burdens we are placing on future generations.
flexibility. We therefore endorse employee stock A strong economy is one key to debt reduction,
ownership plans that enable workers to become but spending restraint is a necessary component
capitalists, expand the realm of private property, that must be vigorously pursued.
8

H H H H H
We the People of discrimination. Our ranks include Americans
We are the party of the Declaration of from every faith and tradition, and we respect the
Independence and the Constitution. The Declaration right of each American to follow his or her deeply
sets forth the fundamental precepts of American held beliefs.
government: That God bestows certain inalienable Our Constitution is in crisis. More than 90
rights on every individual, thus producing human percent of federal requirements are now imposed
equality; that government exists first and foremost by regulatory agencies, without any vote of the
to protect those inalienable rights; that man-made House or Senate or signature of the President.
law must be consistent with God-given, natural The current Administration has exceeded its
rights; and that if God-given, natural, inalienable constitutional authority, brazenly and flagrantly
rights come in conflict with government, court, violated the separation of powers, sought to divide
or human-granted rights, God-given, natural, America into groups and turn citizen against citizen.
inalienable rights always prevail; that there is a The President has refused to defend or enforce laws
moral law recognized as the Laws of Nature and he does not like, used executive orders to enact
of Natures God; and that American government national policies in areas constitutionally reserved
is to operate with the consent of the governed. We solely to Congress, made unconstitutional recess
are also the party of the Constitution, the greatest appointments to Senate-confirmed positions,
political document ever written. It is the solemn directed regulatory agencies to overstep their
compact built upon principles of the Declaration statutory authority, and failed to consult Congress
that enshrines our God-given individual rights and regarding military action overseas. He has changed
ensures that all Americans stand equal before the what John Adams called a government of laws and
law, defines the purposes and limits of government, not of men into just the opposite.
and is the blueprint for ordered liberty that makes Democrats in Congress have enabled,
the United States the worlds freest and most supported, and defended each of these breaches.
prosperous nation. They have applauded the Presidents efforts to
We reaffirm the Constitutions fundamental do an end-run around Congress and stymied
principles: limited government, separation of Republican efforts to restrain executive lawlessness.
powers, individual liberty, and the rule of law. We Democrats in Congress have also endorsed an anti-
denounce bigotry, racism, anti-Semitism, ethnic constitutional agenda of their own. Forty-eight
prejudice, and religious intolerance. Therefore, we Democratic senators, for instance, voted to amend
oppose discrimination based on race, sex, religion, the Bill of Rights to give government officials control
creed, disability, or national origin and support over political speech. Democrats in Congress have
statutes to end such discrimination. As the Party likewise proposed bills that would limit religious
of Abraham Lincoln, we must continue to foster liberty, undermine property rights, and eviscerate
solutions to Americas difficult challenges when the Second Amendment.
it comes to race relations today. We continue to In a free society, the primary role of government
encourage equality for all citizens and access to is to protect the God-given, inalienable rights of
the American Dream. Merit and hard work should its citizens. These constitutional rights are not
determine advancement in our society, so we reject negotiable for any American. We affirm that all
unfair preferences, quotas, and set-asides as forms legislation, regulation, and official actions must
9
conform to the Constitutions original meaning as powers. In tandem with a Republican Senate, a
understood at the time the language was adopted. new Republican president will restore to the Court
Our most urgent task as a Party is to restore a strong conservative majority that will follow the
the American peoples faith in their government by text and original meaning of the Constitution and
electing a president who will enforce duly enacted our laws.
laws, honor constitutional limits on executive The legitimate powers of government are
authority, and return credibility to the Oval Office. rooted in the consent of the American people.
We need a Republican president who will end Judicial activism that includes reliance on foreign
abuses of power by departments and agencies, law or unratified treaties undermines American
like the IRS and the EPA, and by the White House sovereignty. Foreign laws and precedents should
itself. Safeguarding our liberties requires a president not be used to interpret our Constitution or laws,
who will respect the Constitutions separation of nor should foreign sources of law be used in state
powers, including the authority of Congress to write courts adjudication of criminal or civil matters.
legislation and define agency authority. Americans We also affirm the wisdom of President
also deserve a president who will speak for our George Washingtons warning to avoid foreign
nations history and values, not apologize for them entanglements and unnecessary alliances. We
to our enemies. therefore oppose the adoption or ratification of
treaties that would weaken or encroach upon
The Judiciary American sovereignty or that could be construed
The rule of law is the foundation of our Republic. by courts to do so. We will not recognize as binding
A critical threat to our countrys constitutional order upon the United States any international agree-
is an activist judiciary that usurps powers properly ment forged without the constitutionally required
reserved to the people through other branches assent of two-thirds of the United States Senate.
of government. Only a Republican president
will appoint judges who respect the rule of law Administrative Law
expressed within the Constitution and Declaration Article I of the Constitution directs that All
of Independence, including the inalienable right legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested
to life and the laws of nature and natures God, as in a Congress of the United States. For more
did the late Justice Antonin Scalia. We are facing a than a century, however, Congress has delegated
national crisis in our judiciary. We understand that increasing amounts of legislative authority to
only by electing a Republican president in 2016 will executive departments, agencies, and commissions,
America have the opportunity for up to five new laying the foundation for todays vast administrative
constitutionally-minded Supreme Court justices state. Unelected bureaucrats in the executive
appointed to fill vacancies on the Court. Only such branch now write countless rules with the force of
appointments will enable courts to begin to reverse law and arbitrarily punish individuals who disobey
the long line of activist decisions including those rules. The Constitution makes clear that these
Roe, Obergefell, and the Obamacare cases that powers were granted to Congress by the people
have usurped Congresss and states lawmaking and must therefore remain solely with the peoples
authority, undermined constitutional protections, elected representatives. We call on Congress to
expanded the power of the judiciary at the expense begin reclaiming its constitutional powers from
of the people and their elected representatives, the bureaucratic state by requiring that major new
and stripped the people of their power to govern federal regulations be approved by Congress before
themselves. We believe in the constitutional checks they can take effect, such as through the Regulation
and balances and that the Founders intended the Freedom Amendment. We further affirm that courts
judiciary to be the weakest branch. We encourage should interpret laws as written by Congress rather
Congress to use the check of impeachment for than allowing executive agencies to rewrite those
judges who unconstitutionally usurp Article I laws to suit administration priorities.
10
Defending Marriage Against misguided effort to undermine religion and drive it

an Activist Judiciary from the public square. As a result, many charitable
Traditional marriage and family, based on religious institutions that have demonstrated
marriage between one man and one woman, great success in helping the needy have been
is the foundation for a free society and has for barred from receiving government grants and
millennia been entrusted with rearing children contracts. Government officials threaten religious
and instilling cultural values. We condemn the colleges and universities with massive fines and
Supreme Courts ruling in seek to control their personnel
United States v. Windsor, which decisions. Places of worship
wrongly removed the ability of for the first time in our history
Congress to define marriage have reason to fear the loss
policy in federal law. We also
We pledge of tax-exempt status merely
condemn the Supreme Courts to defend the for espousing and practicing
lawless ruling in Obergefell v. religious beliefs and traditional religious beliefs
Hodges, which in the words of that have been held across the
the late Justice Antonin Scalia, rights of conscience world for thousands of years,
was a judicial Putsch full of all Americans and and for almost four centuries
of silly extravagances that in America. We value the right
reduced the disciplined legal to safeguard religious of Americas religious leaders
reasoning of John Marshall and institutions against to preach, and Americans to
Joseph Storey to the mystical speak freely, according to their
aphorisms of a fortune cookie.
government control. faith. Republicans believe the
In Obergefell, five unelected federal government, specifically
lawyers robbed 320 million the IRS, is constitutionally
Americans of their legitimate prohibited from policing or
constitutional authority to define marriage as the censoring speech based on religious convictions
union of one man and one woman. The Court or beliefs, and therefore we urge the repeal of the
twisted the meaning of the Fourteenth Amendment Johnson Amendment.
beyond recognition. To echo Scalia, we dissent. We pledge to defend the religious beliefs
We, therefore, support the appointment of justices and rights of conscience of all Americans and to
and judges who respect the constitutional limits on safeguard religious institutions against government
their power and respect the authority of the states control. We endorse the First Amendment Defense
to decide such fundamental social questions. Act, Republican legislation in the House and Senate
which will bar government discrimination against
The First Amendment: Religious Liberty individuals and businesses for acting on the belief
The Bill of Rights lists religious liberty, with that marriage is the union of one man and one
its rights of conscience, as the first freedom to be woman. This Act would protect the non-profit
protected. Religious freedom in the Bill of Rights tax status of faith-based adoption agencies, the
protects the right of the people to practice their accreditation of religious educational institutions,
faith in their everyday lives. As George Washington the grants and contracts of faith-based charities
taught, religion and morality are indispensable and small businesses, and the licensing of religious
supports to a free society. Similarly, Thomas professions all of which are under assault by
Jefferson declared that No provision in our elements of the Democratic Party. We encourage
Constitution ought to be dearer to man than that every state to pass similar legislation. We likewise
which protects the rights of conscience against the endorse the efforts of Republican state legislators
enterprises of the civil authority. Ongoing attempts and governors who have defied intimidation from
to compel individuals, businesses, and institutions corporations and the media in defending religious
of faith to transgress their beliefs are part of a liberty. We support laws to confirm the longstanding
11
American tradition that religious individuals and parties in McCain-Feingold, raising or repealing
institutions can educate young people, receive contribution limits, protecting the political speech
government benefits, and participate in public of advocacy groups, corporations, and labor unions,
debates without having to check their religious and protecting political speech on the internet. We
beliefs at the door. likewise call for an end to the so-called Fairness
Our First Amendment rights are not given to Doctrine, and support free-market approaches to
us by the government but are rights we inherently free speech unregulated by government.
possess. The government cannot use subsequent We believe the forced funding of political
amendments to limit First Amendment rights. The candidates through union dues and other mandatory
Free Exercise Clause is both an individual and a contributions violates the First Amendment. Just as
collective liberty protecting a right to worship God Americans have a First Amendment right to devote
according to the dictates of conscience. Therefore, resources to favored candidates or views, they
we strongly support the freedom of Americans to have a First Amendment right not to be forced to
act in accordance with their religious beliefs, not individually support individuals or ideologies that
only in their houses of worship, but also in their they oppose. We agree with Thomas Jefferson that
everyday lives. To compel a man to furnish contributions of money
We support the right of the people to conduct for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves
their businesses in accordance with their religious and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.
beliefs and condemn public officials who have
proposed boycotts against businesses that support The Second Amendment:
traditional marriage. We pledge to protect those Our Right to Keep and Bear Arms
business owners who have been subjected to hate We uphold the right of individuals to keep
campaigns, threats of violence, and other attempts and bear arms, a natural inalienable right that
to deny their civil rights. predates the Constitution and is secured by the
We support the public display of the Ten Second Amendment. Lawful gun ownership enables
Commandments as a reflection of our history and Americans to exercise their God-given right of self-
our countrys Judeo-Christian heritage and further defense for the safety of their homes, their loved
affirm the rights of religious students to engage in ones, and their communities.
voluntary prayer at public school events and to have We salute the Republican Congress for
equal access to school facilities. We assert the First defending the right to keep and bear arms by
Amendment right of freedom of association for preventing the President from installing a new liberal
religious, private, service, and youth organizations majority on the Supreme Court. The confirmation
to set their own membership standards. to the Court of additional anti-gun justices would
eviscerate the Second Amendments fundamental
The First Amendment: protections. Already, local officials in the nations
Constitutionally Protected Speech capital and elsewhere are defying the Courts
The rights of citizenship do not stop at the ballot decisions upholding an individual right to bear
box. Freedom of speech includes the right to devote arms as affirmed by the Supreme Court in Heller
resources to whatever cause or candidate one and McDonald. We support firearm reciprocity
supports. We oppose any restrictions or conditions legislation to recognize the right of law-abiding
that would discourage citizens from participating in Americans to carry firearms to protect themselves
the public square or limit their ability to promote and their families in all 50 states. We support
their ideas, such as requiring private organizations constitutional carry statutes and salute the states
to publicly disclose their donors to the government. that have passed them. We oppose ill-conceived
Limits on political speech serve only to protect the laws that would restrict magazine capacity or
powerful and insulate incumbent officeholders. We ban the sale of the most popular and common
support repeal of federal restrictions on political modern rifle. We also oppose any effort to deprive
12
individuals of their right to keep and bear arms reasonable suspicion or probable cause. Americans
without due process of law. overseas should enjoy the same rights as Americans
We condemn frivolous lawsuits against gun residing in the United States, whose private
manufacturers and the current Administrations financial information is not subject to disclosure
illegal harassment of firearm dealers. We oppose to the government except as to interest earned.
federal licensing or registration of law-abiding The requirement for all banks around the world
gun owners, registration of ammunition, and to provide detailed information to the IRS about
restoration of the ill-fated Clinton gun ban. We call American account holders outside the United States
for a thorough investigation by a new Republican has resulted in banks refusing service to them. Thus,
administration of the deadly Fast and Furious FATCA not only allows unreasonable search and
operation perpetrated by Department of Justice seizures but also threatens the ability of overseas
officials who approved and allowed illegal sales of Americans to lead normal lives. We call for its repeal
guns to known violent criminals. and for a change to residency-based taxation for
U.S. citizens overseas.
The Fourth Amendment:
Liberty and Privacy The Fifth Amendment:
Affirming the Fourth Amendment right of Protecting Human Life
the people to be secure in their houses, papers, The Constitutions guarantee that no one can
and effects, against unreasonable searches and be deprived of life, liberty or property deliberately
seizures, we call for strict limitations on the use of echoes the Declaration of Independences
aerial surveillance on U.S. soil, with the exception of proclamation that all are endowed by their
patrolling our national borders for illegal entry and Creator with the inalienable right to life.
activity. We oppose any attempts by government Accordingly, we assert the sanctity of human life
to require surveillance devices in our daily lives, and affirm that the unborn child has a fundamental
including tracking devices in motor vehicles. right to life which cannot be infringed. We support
In recent years, technology companies have a human life amendment to the Constitution and
responded to market demand for products and legislation to make clear that the Fourteenth
services that protect the privacy of customers Amendments protections apply to children before
through increasingly sophisticated encryption birth.
technology. These increased privacy protections We oppose the use of public funds to perform
have become crucial to the digital economy. At the or promote abortion or to fund organizations, like
same time, however, such innovations have brought Planned Parenthood, so long as they provide or
new dangers, especially from criminals and terrorists refer for elective abortions or sell fetal body parts
who seek to use encryption technology to harm us. rather than provide healthcare. We urge all states
No matter the medium, citizens must retain the and Congress to make it a crime to acquire, transfer,
right to communicate with one another free from or sell fetal tissues from elective abortions for
unlawful government intrusion. It will not be easy research, and we call on Congress to enact a ban
to balance privacy rights with the governments on any sale of fetal body parts. In the meantime, we
legitimate need to access encrypted information. call on Congress to ban the practice of misleading
This issue is too important to be left to the courts. women on so-called fetal harvesting consent forms,
A Republican president and a Republican Congress a fact revealed by a 2015 investigation. We will not
must listen to the American people and forge a fund or subsidize healthcare that includes abortion
consensus solution. coverage.
The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act We support the appointment of judges who
(FATCA) and the Foreign Bank and Asset Reporting respect traditional family values and the sanctity of
Requirements result in governments warrantless innocent human life. We oppose the non-consensual
seizure of personal financial information without withholding or withdrawal of care or treatment,
13
including food and water, from individuals with Capable Unborn Child Protection Acts prohibiting
disabilities, newborns, the elderly, or the infirm, just abortion after twenty weeks, the point at which
as we oppose euthanasia and assisted suicide. current medical research shows that unborn babies
We affirm our moral obligation to assist, rather can feel excruciating pain during abortions, and we
than penalize, women who face an unplanned call on Congress to enact the federal version. Not
pregnancy. In order to encourage women who face only is it good legislation, but it enjoys the support
an unplanned pregnancy to choose life, we support of a majority of the American people. We support
legislation that requires financial responsibility for state and federal efforts against the cruelest forms
the child be equally borne by both the mother of abortion, especially dismemberment abortion
and father upon conception until the child reaches procedures, in which unborn babies are literally torn
adulthood. Failure to require a father to be equally apart limb from limb.
responsible for a child places an inequitable We call on Congress to ban sex-selection
burden on the mother, creating a financial and abortions and abortions based on disabilities
social hardship on both mother discrimination in its most lethal
and child. We celebrate the form. We oppose embryonic
millions of Americans who The Democratic Party stem cell research. We oppose
open their hearts, homes, and federal funding of embryonic
churches to mothers in need is extreme on abortion. stem cell research. We support
and women fleeing abuse. We Democrats almost adult stem cell research and urge
thank and encourage providers the restoration of the national
of counseling, medical services, limitless support for placental stem cell bank created
and adoption assistance abortion, and their by President George H.W. Bush
for empowering women but abolished by his Democrat
experiencing an unintended
strident opposition successor, President Bill Clinton.
pregnancy to choose life. We to even the most We oppose federal funding for
support funding for ultrasounds harvesting embryos and call for
and adoption assistance. We
basic restrictions on a ban on human cloning.
salute the many states that abortion, put them The Democratic Party
now protect women and dramatically out of is extreme on abortion.
girls through laws requiring Democrats almost limitless
informed consent, parental step with the support for abortion, and their
consent, waiting periods, and American people. strident opposition to even
clinic regulation. We condemn the most basic restrictions on
the Supreme Courts activist abortion, put them dramatically
decision in Whole Womans Health v. Hellerstedt out of step with the American people. Because of
striking down commonsense Texas laws providing their opposition to simple abortion clinic safety
for basic health and safety standards in abortion procedures, support for taxpayer-funded abortion,
clinics. and rejection of pregnancy resource centers that
We applaud the U.S. House of Representatives provide abortion alternatives, the old Clinton mantra
for leading the effort to add enforcement to the of safe, legal, and rare has been reduced to just
Born-Alive Infant Protection Act by passing the legal. We are proud to be the party that protects
Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act, which human life and offers real solutions for women.
imposes appropriate civil and criminal penalties on
healthcare providers who fail to provide treatment The Fifth Amendment:
and care to an infant who survives an abortion, Protecting Private Property
including early induction delivery whether the The Framers of our government knew, from
death of the infant is intended. We strongly oppose history and experience, that when private property
infanticide. Over a dozen states have passed Pain- is not secure, freedom is at risk. That is why the Fifth
14
Amendment declares that private property may not is a driving force in todays global economy of
be taken for public use without just compensation. constant innovation. It is the wellspring of American
The Supreme Courts Kelo decision undermined this economic growth and job creation. With the rise
safeguard by allowing local governments to seize of the digital economy, it has become even more
a persons home or land not only for vital public use, critical that we protect intellectual property rights
but also for public purpose, which thus allowed and preserve freedom of contract rather than
the government to seize it for transfer to private create regulatory barriers to creativity, growth, and
developers or other private entities. We call on any innovation.
state legislatures that have not already done so to Protecting intellectual property is also a
nullify the impact of Kelo within their jurisdiction national security issue. We must guard against
by legislation or state constitutional amendments counterfeit parts that can compromise the
declaring that private property may be taken only reliability of our weapons systems and the safety
for true public use, and we join House Republicans of military personnel. Today, the worst offenses
in supporting the Private Property Rights Protection against intellectual property rights come from
Act. abroad, especially in China. We call for strong
The government at every level must always action by Congress and a new Republican president
pay just compensation whenever it takes private to enforce intellectual property laws against all
property to achieve a compelling public use, with infringers, whether foreign or domestic.
the money coming from the budget of the agency
performing the taking. This includes the taking The Ninth Amendment:
of water rights and the taking of property by The Peoples Retained Rights
environmental regulations that destroy or diminish The Ninth Amendment to the Constitution
the propertys value. declares that [t]he enumeration in the Constitution
Civil asset forfeiture was originally intended of certain rights shall not be construed to deny
as a way to cripple organized crime through the or disparage others retained by the people. This
seizure of property used in a criminal enterprise. provision codifies the principle that our national
Regrettably, it has become a tool for unscrupulous government derives its power from the governed
law enforcement officials, acting without due and that all powers not delegated to the government
process, to profit by destroying the livelihood of are retained by the people. We call upon legislators
innocent individuals, many of whom never recover to give full force to this fundamental principle.
the lawful assets taken from them. When the rights We welcome to our ranks all citizens who are
of the innocent can be so easily violated, no ones determined to reclaim the rights of the people that
rights are safe. We call on Congress and state have been ignored or usurped by the federal and
legislatures to enact reforms to protect law-abiding intrusive state governments.
citizens against abusive asset forfeiture tactics.
The Tenth Amendment: Federalism
The Fifth Amendment: as the Foundation of Personal Liberty
Intellectual Property Rights Federalism is a cornerstone of our constitutional
Private property includes not only physical system. Every violation of state sovereignty by
property such as lands and homes, but also federal officials is not merely a transgression of one
intellectual property like books and patents. Article unit of government against another; it is an assault
1, section 8 of the Constitution gives Congress the on the liberties of individual Americans. Hence the
power to safeguard intellectual property rights promise of the Tenth Amendment: The powers not
for Authors and Inventors. By protecting the delegated to the United States by the Constitution,
proprietary rights of creators and innovators, the nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to
Constitution promotes the general welfare by the States respectively, or to the people. The
providing incentives for investment in all sorts of Constitution gives the federal government very
technology and artistic works. Intellectual property few powers, and they are specifically enumerated;
15
the states and the people retain authority over presidency. We urge state legislatures that have
all unenumerated powers. In obedience to that voted for this proposal to rescind their approval.
principle, we condemn the current Administrations
unconstitutional expansion into areas beyond Honest Elections and the Right to Vote
those specifically enumerated, including bullying Honest elections are the foundation of
of state and local governments in matters ranging representative government. We pledge to protect
from voter identification (ID) laws to immigration, the voting rights of every citizen, as well as their
from healthcare programs to land use decisions, rights of conscience when they are harassed
and from forced education curricula to school or denied a job because of their contributions
restroom policies. We pledge to restore the proper to a candidate or a cause. We support state
balance and vertical separation of powers between efforts to ensure ballot access for the elderly, the
the federal government and state governments handicapped, military personnel, and all legitimate
the governments closest to, and most reflective voters. We urge state and local officials to take
of, the American people. We encourage states to all appropriate steps to allow voters to cast their
reinvigorate their traditional role as the laboratories ballots in a timely manner. We are concerned,
of democracy, propelling the nation forward however, that some voting procedures may
through local and state innovation. be open to abuse. For this reason, we support
Big government undermines federalism legislation to require proof of citizenship when
through more than 1,100 grants-in-aid programs registering to vote and secure photo ID when
that consume more than one-sixth of the federal voting. We strongly oppose litigation against states
budget for matters that should be the exclusive exercising their sovereign authority to enact such
responsibility of the states. Through these programs, laws. In addition, to guarantee that everyones vote
money originating from state taxpayers is returned is counted, we urge that electronic voting systems
to the states, usually greatly reduced, with myriad have a voter-verified paper audit trail. We urge
strings attached. These grants turn state and every state to join the Interstate Voter Registration
local elected officials into agents of the federal Cross Check Program to keep voter rolls accurate
government. The web of conditions and regulations and to prevent people from voting in more than
especially the requirement of matching funds that one state in the same election. To guard against
comes with federal grants transforms recipients foreign involvement in our elections, we call for
into appendages of the Washington bureaucracy. vigilance regarding online credit card contributions
We call upon Congress to help a Republican to candidates and campaigns.
president to reduce and ultimately eliminate this The members of our Armed Forces must not
system of conditioned grants so that state and local be denied the basic rights that they are defending
taxpayers can decide for themselves what is best for others. Our troops, wherever stationed, must be
for their own communities. allowed to vote in a timely manner. We call upon
the entire military chain of command to ensure the
Honest Elections and the voting rights of our citizen soldiers.
Electoral College The Constitution gives Congress authority
We oppose the National Popular Vote Interstate to conduct the decennial census in such Manner
Compact and any other scheme to abolish or as they shall by Law direct. In order to preserve
distort the procedures of the Electoral College. An the principle of one person, one vote, we urge our
unconstitutional effort to impose National Popular elected representatives to ensure that citizenship,
Vote would be a grave threat to our federal system rather than mere residency, be made the basis for
and a guarantee of corruption, as every ballot box the apportionment of representatives among the
in every state would offer a chance to steal the states.
16

H H H H H
We are the party of Americas growers, regard to food and health regulations. We will not
producers, farmers, ranchers, foresters, miners, tolerate the use of bogus science and scare tactics
commercial fishermen, and all those who bring to bar our products from foreign markets, nor will
from the earth the crops, minerals, energy, and we allow insufficient health and safety standards for
the bounties of our seas that are the lifeblood products imported for our consumption.
of our economy. Their labor and ingenuity, their We must also ensure that domestic policies
determination in bad times and love of the land at do not compromise our global competitiveness
all times, powers our economy, creates millions of through overregulation and undue interference
jobs, and feeds billions of people around the world. in the marketplace. There is growing recognition
Only a few years ago, a bipartisan consensus in that federal dairy policies, crafted during the Great
government valued the role of extractive industries Depression, are increasingly an impediment to the
and rewarded their enterprise by minimizing its ability of our dairy producers to meet the expected
interference with their work. That has radically doubling in global demand coming by 2030. We
changed. We look in vain within the Democratic oppose the policies pushed by special interest
Party for leaders who will speak for the people of groups seeking to stop or make more expensive
agriculture, energy and mineral production. our current system of safe, efficient, and humane
production of meat. Congress has repeatedly had to
Abundant Harvests block the current Administrations draconian rules
Agricultural production and exports are concerning the marketing of poultry and livestock.
central to the Republican agenda for jobs, growth, This regulatory impulse must be curbed, not on a
expanded trade, and prosperity. Because our case-by-case basis, but through a fundamental
farmers and ranchers care for the land, the United restructuring of the regulatory process. In the
States does not depend on foreign imports for meantime, the intrusive and expensive federal
sustenance. Americans spend a smaller percentage mandates on food options and menu labeling should
of their income on food than any other nation. On be ended as soon as possible by a Republican
average, one American farm produces enough food Congress. We oppose the mandatory labeling of
to feed 155 people. No other nation has been as genetically modified food, which has proven to be
generous with food aid to the needy. We have good safe, healthy, and a literal life-saver for millions in the
reason to celebrate our domestic security in food. developing world.
We are the largest agricultural exporter in the The Democratic Administrations sustained
world, and our exports are vital for other sectors support for additional regulation of agriculture has
of our economy. Those exports drive additional directly resulted in higher costs of production for
economic growth as each dollar of agricultural those who produce the food we eat. This federal
exports generates another $1.27 in business activity. regulatory overreach has resulted and will continue
That is why we remain committed to expanding to result in higher food prices for Americans. These
trade opportunities and opening new markets for higher food costs are particularly challenging for
agriculture. Under a Republican president, Americas those Americans struggling to make ends meet.
trade negotiators will insist that our global trading Like the rest of the economy, agriculture has
partners adhere to science-based standards with suffered through eight years of the Democrats
17
regulatory juggernaut, particularly from the markets around the world is the surest path to farm
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). States, security.
not Washington bureaucrats, are best equipped While uncertainty about natural weather and
to engage farmers and ranchers to develop markets is a risk farmers and ranchers always face,
sound farm oversight policies. The EPAs Waters government should not add to their uncertainty by
of the United States (WOTUS) rule, issued jointly inaction and delay. Thanks in large part to a lack
with the Army Corps of Engineers, is a travesty. of leadership from the current Administration and
It extends the governments jurisdiction over congressional Democrats, the last Farm Bill took
navigable waters into the micro-management of far too long to enact, creating instability about
puddles and ditches on farms, ranches, and other farm policy for nearly two years. Republicans are
privately-held property. Ditches, dry creek beds, dedicated to leading this country forward, which
stock ponds, prairie potholes, and other non- includes getting things done on time, including the
navigable wet areas are already regulated by the next Farm Bill.
states. WOTUS is now subject to judicial review and The Democrats play politics with farm security.
must be invalidated, but that will not be sufficient. Much of the Democrats delay had nothing to
Unelected bureaucrats must be stopped from do with the vital role of American agriculture. It
furthering the Democratic Partys political agenda concerned their efforts to expand welfare through
through regulatory demands forced upon citizens the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
and businesses beyond that which is required by (SNAP), which now comprises more than 70 percent
law. We must never allow federal agencies to seize of all farm bill spending. During the last eight years
control of state waters, watersheds, or groundwater. of a Democratic Administration, nearly all the work
State waters, watersheds, and groundwater must be requirements for able-bodied adults, instituted by
the purview of the sovereign states. our landmark welfare reform of 1996, have been
Farmers and ranchers are among this countrys removed. We will restore those provisions and,
leading conservationists. Modern farm practices to correct a mistake made when the Food Stamp
and technologies, supported by programs from program was first created in 1964, separate the
the Department of Agriculture, have led to reduced administration of SNAP from the Department of
erosion, improved water and air quality, increased Agriculture.
wildlife habitat, all the while maintaining improved Like all other sectors of our society, agriculture
agricultural yields. This stewardship of the land is directly impacted by the constant advance in
benefits everyone, and we remain committed to technology. Agriculture now faces a revolution in the
conservation policies based on the preservation, generation of Big Data information produced
not the restriction, of working lands. For this not only through public oversight of regulations and
reason, ranching on public lands must be fostered, programs, but also from private business records of
developed, and encouraged. This includes providing farming and ranching operations. In the interest of
for an abundant water supply for Americas farmers, protecting the safety of our farmers and ranchers,
ranchers, and their communities. we will advance policies to protect the security,
Farming and ranching remain high-risk privacy, and most of all, the private ownership of
endeavors, and they cannot be isolated from individual farmers and ranchers data.
market forces. No segment of agriculture can The U. S. Forest Service, within the Department
expect treatment so favorable that it seriously of Agriculture, controls around 200 million acres of
disadvantages workers in other trades. Federal land with enormous natural resources, especially
programs to assist farmers in managing risk must timber, a renewable resource providing jobs for
be as cost-effective as they are functional, offering thousands of workers that should be used to the
tools that can improve producers ability to operate best economic potential for the nation. Many of
when times are tough while remaining affordable to our national forests are in worsening health with
the taxpayers. Even so, the expansion of agricultural the threat of invasive species, insect mortality,
exports through the vigorous opening of new and the severe risk of wildfire. The increase in
18
catastrophic wildfires has been needlessly killing not be immediately developed. Because we believe
millions of animals and destroying homes and states can best promote economic growth while
watersheds for decades in the western states. protecting the environment, Congress should give
The expense to suppress wildfires related to failed authority to state regulators to manage energy
federal forest policies continues to increase. When resources on federally controlled public lands within
timber is managed properly, the renewable crops their respective borders.
will result in fewer wildfires and, at the same time, The Democratic Partys energy policy can be
produce jobs in the timber industry for countless summed up in a slogan currently popular among
families. We believe in promoting active, sustainable its activists: keep it in the ground. Keeping energy
management of our forests and that states can best in the earth will keep jobs out of reach of those
manage our forests to improve forest health and who need them most. For low-income Americans,
keep communities safe. expensive energy means colder homes in the winter
and hotter homes in the summer, less mobility in
A New Era in Energy employment, and higher food prices. The current
Our country has greater energy resources Administration, and particularly its EPA, seems
than any other place on earth. not to care. Its Clean Power
Our engineers and miners, the Plan the centerpiece of the
men and women whose labor Our country has Presidents war on coal has
taps the forces of nature, are been stayed by the Supreme
the best in the world. Together, greater energy Court. We will do away with
the people of Americas energy resources than any it altogether. The Democratic
sector provide us with power Party does not understand
that is clean, affordable, secure,
other place on earth. that coal is an abundant, clean,
and abundant. Their work can Our engineers and affordable, reliable domestic
guarantee the nations energy energy resource. Those who
security for centuries to come if,
miners, the men and mine it and their families
instead of erecting roadblocks, women whose labor should be protected from the
government facilitates the taps the forces of Democratic Partys radical anti-
creation of an all-of-the-above coal agenda.
energy strategy. nature, are the best The Democratic Partys
We applaud congressional in the world. campaign to smother the U.S.
Republicans for doing just that energy industry takes many
through far-sighted legislation. forms, but the permitting
Both Houses have passed bills that will modernize process may be its most damaging weapon. It takes
pipelines and the electric grid, protect the grid from an average of 30 days for states to permit an oil or
disruption, expedite energy exports, and lower gas well. It takes the federal government longer than
energy costs. A Republican administration will seven months. Three decades ago, the Bureau of
build on those policies to find new ways to store Land Management (BLM) leased 12.2 million acres.
electricity, a breakthrough of extraordinary import. In 2014, it leased only one-tenth of that number.
Planning for our energy future requires us to Our nuclear industry, cleanly generating almost 20
first determine what resources we have in reserve. percent of our electricity from its 99 plants, has
Thirty years ago, the worlds estimated reserves of a remarkable safety record, but only a handful of
oil were 645 billion barrels. Today, that figure is 1.65 plants have been permitted in over three decades.
trillion barrels. The more we know what we will have Permitting for a safe, non-polluting hydroelectric
in the future, the better we can decide how to use it. facility, even one that is being relicensed, can take
That is why we support the opening of public lands many years because of the current Presidents
and the outer continental shelf to exploration and hostility to dams. The Keystone Pipeline has
responsible production, even if these resources will become a symbol of everything wrong with the
19
current Administrations ideological approach. We oppose any carbon tax. It would increase
After years of delay, the President killed it to satisfy energy prices across the board, hitting hardest at
environmental extremists. We intend to finish that the families who are already struggling to pay their
pipeline and others as part of our commitment to bills in the Democrats no-growth economy. We
North American energy security. urge the private sector to focus its resources on the
Government should not play favorites among development of carbon capture and sequestration
energy producers. The taxpayers will not soon technology still in its early stages here and overseas.
forget the current Administrations subsidies to American energy producers should be free
companies that went bankrupt without producing to export their product to foreign markets. This
a kilowatt of energy. The same Administration is particularly important because of international
now requires the Department demand for liquefied natural
of Defense, operating with gas, and we must expedite
slashed budgets during a time We support the the energy export terminals
of expanding conflict, to use its development of all currently blocked by the
scarce resources to generate 25 Administration. Energy exports
percent of its electricity from forms of energy that will create high paying jobs
renewables by 2025. Climate are marketable in a throughout the United States,
change is far from this nations
most pressing national security
free economy without reduce our nations trade
deficit, grow our economy, and
issue. This is the triumph of subsidies, including boost the energy security of
extremism over common sense, coal, oil, natural gas, our allies and trading partners.
and Congress must stop it. We remain committed to
We support the nuclear power, and aggressively expanding trade
development of all forms of hydropower. opportunities and opening
energy that are marketable in a new markets for American
free economy without subsidies, energy through multilateral and
including coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear power, and bilateral agreements, whether current, pending, or
hydropower. A federal judge has struck down the negotiated in the future.
BLMs rule on hydraulic fracturing and we support Energy is both an economic and national
upholding this decision. We respect the states security issue. We support the enactment of
proven ability to regulate the use of hydraulic policies to increase domestic energy production,
fracturing, methane emissions, and horizontal including production on public lands, to counter
drilling, and we will end the Administrations market manipulation by OPEC and other nationally-
disregard of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act with owned oil companies. This will reduce Americas
respect to the long-term storage of nuclear waste. vulnerability to energy price volatility.
We encourage the cost-effective development of
renewable energy sources wind, solar, biomass, Environmental Progress
biofuel, geothermal, and tidal energy by private Conservation is inherent in conservatism. As
capital. The United States is overwhelmingly the pioneer of environmentalism a century ago, the
dependent on China and other nations for rare earth Republican Party reaffirms the moral obligation to
and other hardrock minerals. These minerals are be good stewards of the God-given natural beauty
critical to advanced technology, renewable energy, and resources of our country. We believe that people
and defense manufacturing. We support expediting are the most valuable resources and that human
the permitting process for mineral production health and safety are the proper measurements of
on public lands. We support lifting restrictions to a policys success. We assert that private ownership
allow responsible development of nuclear energy, has been the best guarantee of conscientious
including research into alternative processes like stewardship, while some of the worst instances
thorium nuclear energy. of degradation have occurred under government
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control. Poverty, not wealth, is the gravest threat structural safeguards against politicized science.
to the environment, while steady economic growth We will strictly limit congressional delegation of
brings the technological advances which make rule-making authority, and require that citizens be
environmental progress possible. compensated for regulatory takings.
The environment is too important to be left to We will put an end to the legal practice known
radical environmentalists. They are using yesterdays as sue and settle, in which environmental groups
tools to control a future they do not comprehend. sue federal agencies whose officials are complicit in
The environmental establishment has become a the litigation so that, with the taxpayers excluded,
self-serving elite, stuck in the mindset of the 1970s, both parties can reach agreement behind closed
subordinating the publics consensus to the goals doors. That deceit betrays the publics trust; it will
of the Democratic Party. Their approach is based no longer be tolerated. We will also reform the Equal
on shoddy science, scare tactics, and centralized Access to Justice Act to cap and disclose payments
command-and-control regulation. Over the last made to environmental activists and return the Act
eight years, the Administration has triggered an to its original intent.
avalanche of regulation that wreaks havoc across We will enforce the original intent of the Clean
our economy and yields minimal environmental Water Act, not its distortion by EPA regulations.
benefits. We will likewise forbid the EPA to regulate carbon
The central fact of any sensible environmental dioxide, something never envisioned when Congress
policy is that, year by year, the environment is passed the Clean Air Act. We will restore to
improving. Our air and waterways are much Congress the authority to set the National Ambient
healthier than they were a few decades ago. As Air Quality Standards and modernize the permitting
a nation, we have drastically reduced pollution, process under the National Environmental Policy
mainstreamed recycling, educated the public, Act so it can no longer invite frivolous lawsuits,
and avoided ecological degradation. Even if no thwart sorely needed projects, kill jobs, and strangle
additional controls are added, air pollution will growth.
continue to decline for the next several decades The federal government owns or controls over
due to technological turnover of aging equipment. 640 million acres of land in the United States, most of
These successes become a challenge for Democratic which is in the West. These are public lands, and the
Party environmental extremists, who must reach public should have access to them for appropriate
farther and demand more to sustain the illusion of activities like hunting, fishing, and recreational
an environmental crisis. That is why they routinely shooting. Federal ownership or management of land
ignore costs, exaggerate benefits, and advocate the also places an economic burden on counties and
breaching of constitutional boundaries by federal local communities in terms of lost revenue to pay
agencies to impose environmental regulation. At the for things such as schools, police, and emergency
same time, the environmental establishment looks services. It is absurd to think that all that acreage
the other way when environmental degradation is must remain under the absentee ownership or
caused by the EPA and other federal agencies as management of official Washington. Congress shall
was the case during the Animas River spill. immediately pass universal legislation providing for
Our agenda is high on job creation, expanding a timely and orderly mechanism requiring the federal
opportunity and providing a better chance at life government to convey certain federally controlled
for everyone willing to work for it. Our modern public lands to states. We call upon all national
approach to environmentalism is directed to that and state leaders and representatives to exert their
end, and it starts with dramatic change in official utmost power and influence to urge the transfer of
Washington. We propose to shift responsibility those lands, identified in the review process, to all
for environmental regulation from the federal willing states for the benefit of the states and the
bureaucracy to the states and to transform the nation as a whole. The residents of state and local
EPA into an independent bipartisan commission, communities know best how to protect the land
similar to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with where they work and live. They practice boots-on-
21
the-ground conservation in their states every day. in consideration of the impact on the development
We support amending the Antiquities Act of 1906 to of lands and natural resources.
establish Congress right to approve the designation Information concerning a changing climate,
of national monuments and to further require the especially projections into the long-range future,
approval of the state where a national monument is must be based on dispassionate analysis of hard
designated or a national park is proposed. data. We will enforce that standard throughout
There is certainly a need to protect certain the executive branch, among civil servants and
species threatened worldwide with extinction. presidential appointees alike. The United Nations
However, the Endangered Species Act (ESA) should Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a
not include species such as gray wolves and other political mechanism, not an unbiased scientific
species if these species exist elsewhere in healthy institution. Its unreliability is reflected in its
numbers in another state or country. To upset the intolerance toward scientists and others who
economic viability of an area with an unneeded dissent from its orthodoxy. We will evaluate its
designation costs jobs and hurts local communities. recommendations accordingly. We reject the
We must ensure that this protection is done agendas of both the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris
effectively, reasonably, and without unnecessarily Agreement, which represent only the personal
impeding the development of lands and natural commitments of their signatories; no such
resources. The ESA should ensure that the listing agreement can be binding upon the United States
of endangered species and the designation of until it is submitted to and ratified by the Senate.
critical habitats are based upon sound science and We demand an immediate halt to U.S. funding
balance the protection of endangered species with for the U.N.s Framework Convention on Climate
the costs of compliance and the rights of property Change (UNFCCC) in accordance with the 1994
owners. Instead, over the last few decades, the Foreign Relations Authorization Act. That law pro-
ESA has stunted economic development, halted the hibits Washington from giving any money to any
construction of projects, burdened landowners, and affiliated organization of the United Nations which
has been used to pursue policy goals inconsistent grants Palestinians membership as a state. There is
with the ESA all with little to no success in the no ambiguity in that language. It would be illegal
actual recovery of species. For example, we oppose for the President to follow through on his intention
the listing of the lesser prairie chicken and the to provide millions in funding for the UNFCCC and
potential listing of the sage grouse. Neither species hundreds of millions for its Green Climate Fund.
has been shown to be in actual danger and the We firmly believe environmental problems
listings threaten to devastate farmers, ranchers, and are best solved by giving incentives for human
oil and gas production. While species threatened ingenuity and the development of new technologies,
with extinction must be protected under the ESA, not through top-down, command-and-control
any such protection must be done in a reasonable regulations that stifle economic growth and cost
and transparent manner with stakeholder input and thousands of jobs.
22
Government Reform
H H H H H
Making Government Work for the People demands have focused on significantly expanding
Founding Father and Constitution Framer government spending and benefits for its preferred
James Wilson declared that in America, the groups, paid for through loans that our children and
people are the masters of government, but that grandchildren will have to pay. This is the path to
in other countries, the government is master bankrupting the next generation.
of the people. We pledge to make government The Republican path to fiscal sanity and
work for the people, rather than the other way economic expansion begins with a constitutional
around. Much of what the federal government requirement for a federal balanced budget. We
does can be improved, much should be replaced, will fight for Congress to adopt, and for the states
and much needs to be done away with or returned to ratify, a Balanced Budget Amendment which
to the states. It is long past time for just tinkering imposes a cap limiting spending to the appropriate
around the edges of a bloated and unresponsive historical average percentage of our nations gross
bureaucratic state. Its poorly managed programs, domestic product while requiring a super-majority
some begun generations ago, are ill-suited to meet for any tax increase, with exceptions only for war
present needs and future requirements. Its credit or legitimate emergencies. Only a constitutional
card budgets impose massive indebtedness on safeguard such as this can prevent deficits from
every American today and on children yet unborn. mounting to government default.
The more it intrudes into every aspect of American Republican budgets will prioritize thrift over
life the more it alienates the citizens who work, extravagance and put taxpayers first. We support
pay taxes, and wonder what has happened to the the following test: Is a particular expenditure within
country they love. We agree with Thomas Jefferson the constitutional scope of the federal government?
that [t]he multiplication of public offices, increase If not, stop it. Has it been effective in the past and
of expense beyond income, growth and entailment is it still absolutely necessary? If not, end it. Is it so
of a public debt, are indications soliciting the important as to justify borrowing, especially foreign
employment of the pruning knife. borrowing, to fund it? If not, kill it.
Balancing the Budget Preserving Medicare and Medicaid

The federal fiscal burden threatens the More than 100 million Americans depend on
security, liberty, and independence of our nation. Medicare or Medicaid for their healthcare; with
The current Administrations refusal to work with our population aging, that number will increase. To
Republicans took our national debt from $10 trillion preserve Medicare and Medicaid, the financing of
to nearly $19 trillion today. Left unchecked, it will these important programs must be brought under
hit $30 trillion by 2026. At the same time, the control before they consume most of the federal
Administrations policies systematically crippled budget, including national defense. The good news
economic growth and job creation, driving up is that it can be done, and it can be done without
government costs and driving down revenues. endangering the elderly and the needy who depend
When Congressional Republicans tried to reverse on those programs. We intend to save Medicare by
course, the Administration manufactured fiscal modernizing it, empowering its participants, and
crises phony government shutdowns to putting it on a secure financial footing. We will
demand excessive spending. The Administrations preserve the promise of Medicaid as well by making
23
that program, designed for 1965 medicine, a vehicle patients, disease prevention activities, and other
for good health in an entirely new era. innovations are the best strategy for preserving
Medicares long-term debt is in the trillions, and Medicaid for those who need it the most. Block
it is funded by a workforce that is shrinking relative granting Medicaid is particularly needed to
to the size of future beneficiaries. Obamacare address mental health care. Mental illness affects
worsened the situation and imperiled seniors people from all walks of life, but there has been
by imposing hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts little success in developing effective system-wide
to Medicare providers to pay for its new spending. medical models for addressing mental health. For a
When a vital program is so clearly headed for a train variety of unique reasons, government is often the
wreck, its time to put it on a more secure track. first frontier for people experiencing mental health
That is why we propose these reforms: Impose no problems from first responders who deal with
changes for persons 55 or older. Give others the crises to publicly funded mental health facilities
option of traditional Medicare or transition to a and prisons where large numbers of inmates
premium-support model designed to strengthen suffer from mental illnesses. Using block grants
patient choice, promote cost-saving competition would allow states to experiment with different
among providers, and better guard against the systems to address mental health and develop
fraud and abuse that now diverts billions of dollars successful models to be replicated in states across
every year away from patient care. Guarantee to the nation. The current federally dictated mental
every enrollee an income-adjusted contribution health care regime is wasteful and ineffective, and
toward a plan of their choice, with catastrophic moving to a block grant approach would allow for
protection. Without disadvantaging present retirees state and local governments to create solutions
or those nearing retirement, set a more realistic age for individuals and families in desperate need of
for eligibility in light of todays longer life span. help in addressing mental illness. We respect the
This is an agenda to improve healthcare, not states authority and flexibility to exclude abortion
just to manage its costs. We reject the Democrats providers from federal programs such as Medicaid
approach of rationing inherent in Obamacare. We and other healthcare and family planning programs
recognize the de facto rationing of healthcare so long as they continue to perform or refer for
caused by reduced access to doctors who elective abortions or sell the body parts of aborted
increasingly opt out of participating in Medicare children.
and Medicaid. We will not accept that or any other
approach which denies care or lowers its quality Saving Social Security
for Americas elderly. We reject the old maxim that Social Security
Medicaid presents related, but somewhat is the Third Rail of American politics, deadly for
different challenges. As the dominant force in anyone who would change it. The Democratic Party
the health market with regard to long-term care, still treats it that way, even though everyone knows
births, and persons with mental illness, it is the next that its current course will lead to a financial and
frontier of welfare reform. It is simply too big and social disaster. Younger Americans have lost all faith
too flawed to be administered from Washington. in the program and expect little return for what
Most of the vaunted expansion of health insurance they are paying into it. As the party of Americas
coverage under Obamacare actually has been an future, we accept the responsibility to preserve and
unprecedented expansion of the Medicaid rolls in modernize a system of retirement security forged
many states. We applaud the Republican governors in an old industrial era beyond the memory of most
and state legislators who have undertaken the hard Americans. Current retirees and those close to
work of modernizing Medicaid. We will give them a retirement can be assured of their benefits. Of the
free hand to do so by block-granting the program many reforms being proposed, all options should
without strings. Their initiatives whether premium be considered to preserve Social Security. As
supports for purchasing insurance, refundable tax Republicans, we oppose tax increases and believe
credits, alternatives to hospitalization for chronic in the power of markets to create wealth and to
24
help secure the future of our Social Security system. Immigration and the Rule of Law
Saving Social Security is more than a challenge. It Our party is the natural home for those who
is our moral obligation to those who trusted in the come in search of freedom and justice. We welcome
governments word. all to the Great Opportunity Party.
The greatest asset of the American economy is
Protecting Internet Freedom the American worker. Our immigration system must
The survival of the internet as we know it protect American working families and their wages,
is at risk. Its gravest peril originates in the White for citizens and legal immigrants alike, in a way
House, the current occupant of which has launched that will improve the economy. Just as immigrant
a campaign, both at home and internationally, to labor helped build our country in the past, todays
subjugate it to agents of government. The President legal immigrants are making vital contributions
ordered the chair of the supposedly independent in every aspect of national life. Their industry and
Federal Communications Commission to impose commitment to American values strengthens our
upon the internet rules devised in the 1930s for the economy, enriches our culture, and enables us to
telephone monopoly. He has unilaterally announced better understand and more effectively compete
Americas abandonment of with the rest of the world.
the international internet by We are particularly grateful
surrendering U.S. control of to the thousands of new legal
the root zone of web names Americas immigration immigrants, many of them not
and addresses. He threw the yet citizens, who are serving
internet to the wolves, and they
policy must serve the in the Armed Forces and
Russia, China, Iran, and others national interest of the among first responders. Their
are ready to devour it. United States . . . patriotism should encourage
We salute the Congressional all to embrace the newcomers
Republicans who have legally among us, assist their
legislatively impeded his plans journey to full citizenship, and
to turn over the Information Freedom Highway to help their communities avoid isolation from the
regulators and tyrants. That fight must continue, mainstream of society. We are also thankful for the
for its outcome is in doubt. We will consistently many legal immigrants who continue to contribute
support internet policies that allow people and to American society. To that end, we both encourage
private enterprise to thrive, without providing new the preservation of heritage tongues and support
and expanded government powers to tax and English as the nations official language, a unifying
regulate so that the internet does not become the force essential for the advancement of immigrant
vehicle for a dramatic expansion of government communities and our nation as a whole.
power. The internets independence is its power. Americas immigration policy must serve the
It has unleashed innovation, enabled growth, and national interest of the United States, and the
inspired freedom more rapidly and extensively interests of American workers must be protected
than any other technological advance in human over the claims of foreign nationals seeking the
history. We will therefore resist any effort to shift same jobs. With all our fellow citizens, we have
control toward governance by international or watched, in anger and disgust, the mocking of our
other intergovernmental organizations. We will immigration laws by a president who made himself
ensure that personal data receives full constitutional superior to the will of the nation. We stand with
protection from government overreach. The only the victims of his policies, especially the families of
way to safeguard or improve these systems is murdered innocents. Illegal immigration endangers
through the private sector. The internets free everyone, exploits the taxpayers, and insults all
market needs to be free and open to all ideas and who aspire to enter America legally. We oppose
competition without the government or service any form of amnesty for those who, by breaking the
providers picking winners and losers. law, have disadvantaged those who have obeyed
25
it. The executive amnesties of 2012 and 2014 are programs to eliminate fraud, improve efficiency
a direct violation of federal law and usurp the and ensure they serve the national interest. In
powers of Congress as outlined in Article I of the light of the alarming levels of unemployment and
Constitution. These unlawful amnesties must be underemployment in this country, it is indefensible
immediately rescinded by a Republican president. In to continue offering lawful permanent residence to
a time of terrorism, drug cartels, human trafficking, more than one million foreign nationals every year.
and criminal gangs, the presence of millions of The Supreme Court has correctly recognized that
unidentified individuals in this country poses grave states have the constitutional authority to take
risks to the safety and sovereignty of the United steps to reduce illegal immigration. We condemn
States. Our highest priority, therefore, must be to the Obama Administrations lawsuits against states
secure our borders and all ports of entry and to that are seeking to reinforce federal law. We support
enforce our immigration laws. the right of the states to enact laws deterring illegal
That is why we support building a wall along aliens from residing within their states.
our southern border and protecting all ports of From its beginning, our country has been a
entry. The border wall must cover the entirety haven of refuge and asylum. That should continue
of the southern border and must be sufficient to but with major changes. Asylum should be limited
stop both vehicular and pedestrian traffic. We to cases of political, ethnic or religious persecution.
insist upon workplace enforcement of verification As the Director of the FBI has noted, it is not
systems so that more jobs can be available to all possible to vet fully all potential refugees. To ensure
legal workers. Use of the E-verify program an our national security, refugees who cannot be
internet-based system that verifies the employment carefully vetted cannot be admitted to the country,
authorization and identity of employees must especially those whose homelands have been the
be made mandatory nationwide. We reaffirm our breeding grounds for terrorism.
endorsement of the SAVE program Systematic
Alien Verification for Entitlements to ensure that Reforming the Treaty System
public funds are not given to persons not legally We intend to restore the treaty system specified
present in this country. We demand tough penalties by the Constitution: The president negotiates
against those who engage in identity theft, deal in agreements, submits them to the Senate, with
fraudulent documents, and traffic in human beings. ratification requiring two-thirds of the senators
The Department of Homeland Security must use its present and voting. This was good enough for
authority to keep dangerous aliens off our streets George Washington but is too restrictive for the
and to expedite expulsion of criminal aliens. Gang current chief executive, who presumes to bind this
membership should be a deportable offense. Any country to bilateral and multilateral agreements of
previously deported illegal alien who continues to his devising. His media admirers portray his personal
show a lack of respect for our borders and rule commitments whether on climate change, Iranian
of law must be penalized. This is why we support weapons, or other matters as done deals. They
stiffer penalties, such as a mandatory minimum are not, and a new Republican executive will work
sentence of five years, for any illegal alien who with the Congress to reestablish constitutional
illegally re-enters our nation after already having order in Americas foreign relations. All international
been deported. executive agreements and political arrangements
Because sanctuary cities violate federal law entered into by the current Administration must
and endanger their own citizens, they should not be be deemed null and void as mere expressions of
eligible for federal funding. Using state licenses to the current presidents preferences. Those which
reward people in the country illegally is an affront are in the national interest but would traditionally
to the rule of law and must be halted. have been made by treaty must be abrogated,
In light of both current needs and historic renegotiated as treaties, and transmitted to the
practice, we urge the reform of our guest worker Senate for its advice and consent as required by
26
the Constitution. The United States will withdraw ers who risk their careers to expose waste, fraud,
from all agreements and arrangements failing those and misuse of power. None of them should ever be
standards. compelled to join a union or pay dues to it. In fair-
ness to their fellow workers, union representatives
Internal Revenue Service should not be allowed to engage in union-related
Many good civil servants work at the IRS, but activities while on the publics time. The inability of
the agency itself is toxic. Its leadership employs federal managers to discipline and, if necessary, dis-
known tax delinquents, rehires workers previously miss problem staff members is an affront to every
fired for misconduct, spends user fees without con- conscientious worker, as is the misuse of funds for
gressional oversight, and awards bonuses for cus- lavish conferences and routine bonuses. The ap-
tomer service that would put any private company pointees of a Republican president will work with
out of business. Worst of all, the IRS has become career managers to end those abuses and enforce
an ideological attack dog for the worst elements of high standards for all federal employees. We reaf-
todays Democratic Party. It systematically targets firm the existing protections that provide all em-
conservative, pro-life, and libertarian organizations, ployees of the federal government the opportunity
harassing them with repeated audits and denying to pursue their desire to serve their country free
their tax exempt status. Its commissioner has lied to from discrimination.
Congress, hidden evidence, and stonewalled inves- We call for renewed efforts to reduce, rather
tigations. He should be impeached by the House of than expand, government responsibilities, and we
Representatives and convicted by the Senate. We urge particular attention to the bloated public rela-
value the right of Americas churches, pastors, and tions budgets of the departments and agencies. The
religious leaders to preach and speak freely accord- federal government spends too much of the peo-
ing to their faith. Republicans believe the federal ples money telling the people what they should do.
government, specifically the IRS, is constitutionally
prohibited from policing or censoring the speech Advancing Term Limits
of Americas churches, pastors, and religious lead- Our national platform has repeatedly endorsed
ers. We support repeal of the Johnson Amend- term limits for Members of Congress. In response, the
ment, which restricts First Amendment freedoms GOP Leadership in 1996 brought to a vote, in both
of all nonprofit organizations by prohibiting politi- the House and Senate, a constitutional amendment.
cal speech. We also support making the federal tax It failed to secure the necessary two-thirds vote in
code so simple and easy to understand that the IRS the House, where 80 percent of Republicans voted
becomes obsolete and can be abolished. for it and 80 percent of Democrats voted against it.
Every Senate Republican voted to allow a vote on
Audit the Pentagon term limits, but the Democrats killed it by a filibuster.
No major part of the Department of Defense Blocked by that opposition, Republicans sought
has ever passed an audit. Republican leaders in other ways to modernize the national legislature.
Congress have called for a full financial audit of the They set term limits for their own committee chairs
Pentagon to ensure that every dollar spent is truly and leadership positions, and by law they required
benefitting our national security. Every taxpayer Congress to live by the same rules it imposes on
must be prepared to pass an audit, and we urge others. To make further progress, to advance a
Congress to demand the same level of accountability constitutional amendment for consideration by
from the Pentagon and the Department of Defense. the states, we must expand the current Republican
majorities in both chambers.
Improving the Federal Workforce
We recognize the dedication of most employ- Regulation: The Quiet Tyranny
ees of the federal government and thank them for Over-regulation is the quiet tyranny of the
their service, with special praise for the whistleblow- Nanny State. It hamstrings American businesses
27
and hobbles economic growth. The Great Recession a regulation of equal or greater economic burden
may be over, but in the experience of most when a new regulation is enacted.
Americans, the economy is still sick. The federal Because regulations are just another tax on the
regulatory burden has been a major contributor to consumers, Congress should consider a regulatory
that stagnation. budget that would cap the costs federal agencies
The ability of the American people to govern could impose on the economy in any given year.
themselves has been undermined by a vast array
of agencies with sweeping power to regulate Crony Capitalism and Corporate Welfare
every aspect of American life. They legislate as if Cronyism is inherent in the progressive vision
they were Congress. They decide guilt and issue of the administrative state. When government
penalties as if they were courts. They collectively uses taxpayer funding and resources to give
impose many billions of dollars in costs to the special advantages to private companies, it
economy. The current President and his allies on distorts the free market and erodes public trust
Capitol Hill have used those agencies as a super- in our political system. By enlarging the scope of
legislature, disregarding the separation of powers, government and placing enormous power in the
to declare as law what they could not push through hands of bureaucrats, it multiplies opportunities
the Congress. for corruption and favoritism. It is the enemy of
The Environmental Protection Agency has reform in education, the workplace, and healthcare.
rewritten laws to advance the Democrats climate It gives us financial regulation that protects the
change agenda. The Department of Health and large at the cost of the small. It is inherent in every
Human Services has ignored the enacted text of part of the current healthcare law, which is packed
the Affordable Care Act to do whatever it wants with corporate welfare. Crony capitalism gives
in healthcare. Both the Department of Labor and us special interest tax breaks, custom-designed
National Labor Relations Board have scrapped regulations, and special exemptions for favored
decades of labor law to implement the agenda parties. The Solyndra debacle is a perfect example.
of big labor. The Dodd-Frank law, the Democrats It creates both subsidies and restrictions to tilt the
legislative Godzilla, is crushing small and market one way or the other. By putting the weight
community banks and other lenders. The Federal of government behind the status quo, it leads to
Communications Commission is imperiling the economic stagnation. We applaud the Republican
freedom of the internet. We support reinstating Members of Congress who have taken the lead in
the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 which prohibits fighting crony capitalism and urge others to rally to
commercial banks from engaging in high-risk their cause.
investment.
Sensible regulations can be compatible with a Honoring Our Relationship with
vibrant economy. They can prevent the strong from American Indians
exploiting the weak. Right now, the regulators are Based on both treaty and other law, the
exploiting everyone. We are determined to make federal government has a unique government-to-
regulations minimally intrusive, confined to their government relationship with and trust responsibility
legal mandate, and respectful toward the creation for Indian Tribal Governments, American Indians,
of new and small businesses. We will revisit existing and Alaska Natives. These obligations have not
laws that delegate too much authority to regulatory been sufficiently honored. The social and economic
agencies and review all current regulations for problems that plague Indian country have grown
possible reform or repeal. We endorse Republican worse over the last several decades; we must
legislation, already passed by the House, to require reverse that trend. Ineffective federal programs
approval by both houses of Congress for any rule deprive American Indians of the services they need,
or regulation that would impose significant costs and long-term failures threaten to undermine tribal
on the American people. Further, Congress should sovereignty itself.
work towards legislation that requires removal of American Indians have established elected
28
tribal governments to carry out the public policies economic opportunity, deliver top-flight education
of the tribe, administer services to its tribal mem- to future generations, modernize and improve the
ber constituents, and manage relations with federal, Indian Health Service to make it more responsive
state, and local governments. We respect the tribal to local needs, and build essential infrastructure
governments as the voice of their communities and in Indian country in cooperation with tribal
encourage federal, state, and local governments to neighbors. Our approach is to empower American
heed those voices in developing programs and part- Indians, through tribal self-determination and self-
nerships to improve the quality of life for American governance policies, to develop their greatest assets,
Indians and their neighbors in their communities. human resources and the rich natural resources on
Republicans believe that economic self-suf- their lands, without undue federal interference.
ficiency is the ultimate answer to the challenges Like all Americans, American Indians want
confronting Indian country. We believe that tribal safe communities for their families; but inadequate
governments and their communities, not Washing- resources and neglect have, over time, allowed
ton bureaucracies, are best situated to craft solu- criminal activities to plague Indian country. To
tions that will end systemic problems that create protect everyone and especially the most
poverty and disenfranchisement. Just as the fed- vulnerable: children, women, and elders the legal
eral government should not burden states with system in tribal communities must provide stability
regulations, it should not stifle the development and protect property rights. Everyones due process
of resources within the reservations, which need and civil rights must be safeguarded.
federal assistance to advance their commerce na- We support efforts to ensure equitable
tionally through roads and technology. Federal and participation in federal programs by American
state regulations that thwart job creation must be Indians, including Alaska Natives and Native
withdrawn or redrawn so that tribal governments Hawaiians, and to preserve their culture and
acting on behalf of American Indians are not disad- languages that we consider to be national treasures.
vantaged. It is especially egregious that the Dem- Lastly, we recognize that American Indians have
ocratic Party has persistently undermined tribal responded to the call for military service in
sovereignty in order to provide advantage to union percentage numbers far greater than have other
bosses in the tribal workplace. Native communities groups of Americans. We honor that commitment,
should have the same authority as state govern- loyalty, and sacrifice of all American Indians serving
ments in labor matters, so that union bosses and in the military today and in years past and will
the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) cannot ensure that all veterans and their families receive
undermine the authority of tribal governments. the care and respect they have earned through their
Republicans recognize that each tribe has the loyal service to America.
right of consultation before any new regulatory
policy is implemented on tribal land. To the extent Americans in the Territories
possible, such consultation should take place in Throughout the history of our nation, the pa-
Indian country with the tribal government and triotism exhibited by our brothers and sisters in
its members. Before promulgating and imposing the territories of Guam, the Commonwealth of the
any new laws or regulations affecting trust land Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, the U.S.
or members, the federal government should Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico has often gone un-
encourage Indian tribes to develop their own acknowledged. Year after year, the citizens quietly,
policies to achieve program objectives, and should without fanfare, send their sons and daughters into
defer to tribes to develop their own standards, or the U.S. Armed Services. We honor the extraordi-
standards in conjunction with state governments. nary sacrifices of the men and women of the territo-
Republicans reject a one-size-fits-all approach ries who protect our freedom through their service
to federal-tribal-state partnerships and will work to in the U.S. Armed Forces. Geographically, the terri-
expand local autonomy where tribal governments tories and commonwealths, especially those in the
seek it. Better partnerships will help us to expand Pacific, are of vital importance to our national secu-
29
rity as the outermost line of defense and gateway to nationhood. We support the federally sponsored
America against potential encroachment by foreign political status referendum authorized and funded
powers. We welcome their greater participation in by an Act of Congress in 2014 to ascertain the
all aspects of the political process and affirm their aspirations of the people of Puerto Rico. Once the
right to seek the full extension of the Constitution 2012 local vote for statehood is ratified, Congress
with all the rights and responsibilities that entails. should approve an enabling act with terms for
We recognize the challenges facing all the U.S. Puerto Ricos future admission as the 51st state of
territories in an era of dramatic global economic the Union.
change. They need venture capital to retain existing
industries and develop new ones. A stronger private Preserving the District of Columbia
sector can reduce dependence on public employ- The nations capital city is a special responsibil-
ment and lead toward self-sufficiency. Their devel- ity of the federal government because it belongs
opment of local energy options will be crucial to both to its residents and to all Americans, millions of
reduce dependence on costly imported fuel. whom visit it every year. Congressional Republicans
The territories economic stability and potential have fostered homeownership and open access to
for growth must be considered in any trade agree- higher education for Washington residents. Against
ments between the United States and other Pacific the opposition of the current President and lead-
nations. They should be given flexibility or exemp- ers of the Democratic Party, they have established
tion from laws that increase costs for their popula- and expanded the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship
tions, such as the minimum wage and the Jones Act Program, through which thousands of low-income
concerning shipping. All unreasonable impediments children have been able to attend a school of their
to their prosperity should be removed, including un- choice and receive a quality education.
reasonable U.S. customs practices. Territories such Republicans have been in the forefront of
as American Samoa should be able to properly de- combating chronic corruption among the citys
velop their resources, including fishing, when jobs top Democratic officials. We call for congressio-
and the economy depend on it. nal action to enforce the spirit of the Home Rule
We call for the appointment of a common- Act, assuring minority representation on the City
wealth and territories advisory committee consist- Council. That council, backed by the current mayor,
ing of representatives from all five U.S. territories. is attempting to seize from the Congress its ap-
The committee will be integrated into the presi- propriating power over all funding for the District.
dents transition team and be tasked with per- The illegality of their action mirrors the unaccept-
forming a holistic review of all federal regulations able spike in violent crime and murders currently
affecting the territories and commonwealths. We afflicting the city. We expect Congress to assert, by
further call for the appointment of a Special As- whatever means necessary, its constitutional pre-
sistant to the President responsible for day-to-day rogatives regarding the District.
interaction with the territories and commonwealths. Since the Supreme Courts decisions affirming
This position will be the direct connection for the the Second Amendment rights of its citizens, city
Office of Insular Affairs, the citizens of the territories officials have engaged in a campaign of massive
and commonwealths, and the White House. resistance by denying virtually all applications for
gun ownership. The Republican Congress should
The Territory of Puerto Rico be prepared, upon the inauguration of a Republican
We support the right of the United States president, to enact legislation allowing law-abiding
citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union Washingtonians to own and carry firearms.
as a fully sovereign state. We further recognize the Statehood for the District can be advanced
historic significance of the 2012 local referendum in only by a constitutional amendment. Any other ap-
which a 54 percent majority voted to end Puerto proach would be invalid. A statehood amendment
Ricos current status as a U.S. territory, and 61 was soundly rejected by the states when last pro-
percent chose statehood over options for sovereign posed in 1976 and should not be revived.
30

H H H H H
American Values we have learned over the last five decades, the loss
We are the party of independent individuals of faith and family life leads to greater dependence
and the institutions they create together families, upon government. That is why Republicans
schools, congregations, neighborhoods to ad- formulate public policy, from taxation to education,
vance their ideals and make real their dreams. Those from healthcare to welfare, with attention to the
institutions, standing between the citizen and the needs and strengths of the family.
power of government, are the pillars of a free soci- It is also why everyone should be concerned
ety. They create spaces where the power of govern- about the state of the American family today, not
ment should not intrude. They allow Americans to because of ideology or doctrine, but because of
work together to solve most of the problems facing the overwhelming evidence of experience, social
their communities. They thus reduce the need for science, and common sense. All of which give us
intervention by government in the form of more and these truths about traditional marriage: Children
bigger programs or a larger public workforce. They raised in a two-parent household tend to be
minimize decision-making by those who hold or are physically and emotionally healthier, more likely to
appointed to office. That is precisely why todays do well in school, less likely to use drugs and alcohol,
progressives distrust and seek to control them engage in crime or become pregnant outside of
because this is more than a conflict of ideas. It is a marriage. We oppose policies and laws that create
struggle for power. a financial incentive for or encourage cohabitation.
Our society is at a crossroads. For several Moreover, marriage remains the greatest antidote to
generations, an expansive federal regime has child poverty. The 40 percent of children who now
marginalized and supplanted the institutions holding are born outside of marriage are five times more
our society together. No wonder, then, that so much likely to live in poverty than youngsters born and
seems to be coming apart now. The question is raised by a mother and father in the home. Nearly
whether we are going to reinvigorate the private- three-quarters of the $450 billion government
sector institutions under citizen control or allow annually spends on welfare goes to single-parent
their continued erosion by the forces of centralized households. This is what it takes for a governmental
social planning. In that divide, the Republican Party village to raise a child, and the village is doing a
stands with the people. tragically poor job of it.
The data and the facts lead to an inescapable
Marriage, Family, and Society conclusion: Every child deserves a married mom and
Foremost among those institutions is the dad. The reality remains that millions of American
American family. It is the foundation of civil society, families do not have the advantages that come with
and the cornerstone of the family is natural marriage, that structure. We honor the courageous efforts of
the union of one man and one woman. Its daily those who bear the burdens of parenting alone and
lessons cooperation, patience, mutual respect, embrace the principle that all Americans should be
responsibility, self-reliance are fundamental to treated with dignity and respect. But respect is not
the order and progress of our Republic. Strong enough. Our laws and our governments regulations
families, depending upon God and one another, should recognize marriage as the union of one man
advance the cause of liberty by lessening the need and one woman and actively promote married
for government in their daily lives. Conversely, as family life as the basis of a stable and prosperous
31
society. For that reason, as explained elsewhere results are damning: intergenerational poverty has
in this platform, we do not accept the Supreme persisted and worsened since 1966.
Courts redefinition of marriage and we urge its This year marks another important anniversary;
reversal, whether through judicial reconsideration or it has been 20 years since the landmark Republican
a constitutional amendment returning control over welfare reform of 1996 broke away from the
marriage to the states. We oppose government discredited Great Society model. By making welfare
discrimination against businesses or entities which a benefit instead of an entitlement, it put millions
decline to sell items or services to individuals for of recipients on a transition from dependence to
activities that go against their religious views about independence. Welfare rolls declined by half as
such activities. recipients and prospective recipients discovered a
Families formed or enlarged by adoption better way to reach their goals. Best of all, about
strengthen our communities and ennoble our nation. 3 million children moved out of poverty. Today
Private entities which facilitate adoptions enrich that progress has been lost. Defying the law as it
our communities. We support measures such as was plainly written, the current Administration
the First Amendment Defense Act to ensure these has nullified any meaningful work requirement
entities do not face government discrimination and made TANF a mockery of the name we gave
because of their views on marriage and family. We it: Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. This
applaud the Republican initiatives which have led decision ensures that those families will remain
to an increase in adoptions, an achievement which needy and cut off from the economic mainstream
should be recognized in any restructuring of the of American society.
federal tax code. While the number of children in This is the progressive pathology: Keeping
foster care has stabilized, teens who age out of that people dependent so that government can
setting often are abruptly left to face the world on redistribute income. The result is 45.8 million people
their own. We urge states and community groups on food stamps and 77 million on Medicaid, plus
to help these young adults become independent. another 5.7 million in the Childrens Health Insurance
Thirty years ago, President Reagan commis- Program. This is the false compassion of the status
sioned a Special Working Group on the Family to quo. We propose instead the dynamic compassion
study how government at all levels could be more of work requirements in a growing economy, where
supportive of family life. We urge marriage penal- opportunity takes the place of a hand-out, where
ties to be removed from the tax code and public true self-esteem can grow from the satisfaction of
assistance programs. We invite all who care about a job well done.
children to join us in this proposal to ensure that We call for removal of structural impediments
all federal programs, in the words of President Ken- which progressives throw in the path of poor people:
nedy, stress the integrity and preservation of the Over-regulation of start-up enterprises, excessive
family unit. licensing requirements, needless restrictions on
formation of schools and day-care centers serving
A Culture of Hope neighborhood families, and restrictions on providing
We have been fighting the War on Poverty for public services in fields like transport and sanitation
50 years and poverty is winning. Our social safety that close the opportunity door to all but a favored
net about 80 separate means-tested programs few. We will continue our fight for school choice
costing over $1 trillion every year is designed until all parents can find good, safe schools for their
to help people born into or falling into poverty. It children. To protect religious liberty we will ensure
rarely lifts them out. Its apologists judge success by that faith-based institutions, especially those that
the amount of money spent to keep people in the are vital parts of underserved neighborhoods, do
system. That is a cruel measurement. Republicans not face discrimination by government. We propose
propose to evaluate a poverty program by whether new partnerships between those who manage
it actually reduces poverty and increases the federal programs and those who are on the front
personal independence of its participants. The lines of fighting poverty on the ground. We must
32
encourage their efforts to reclaim their communities and educators who are implementing alternatives
from the culture of poverty. To advance this process, to Common Core, and congratulate the states which
we urge greater state and local responsibility for, have successfully repealed it. Their education reform
and control over, public assistance programs. movement calls for choice-based, parent-driven
accountability at every stage of schooling. It affirms
Education: A Chance for Every Child higher expectations for all students and rejects the
Education is much more than schooling. It is crippling bigotry of low expectations. It recognizes
the whole range of activities by which families and the wisdom of local control of our schools and it
communities transmit to a younger generation, wisely sees consumer rights in education choice
not just knowledge and skills, but ethical and as the most important driving force for renewing
behavioral norms and traditions. It is the handing education. It rejects excessive testing and teaching
over of a cultural identity. That is why American to the test and supports the need for strong
education has, for the last several decades, been assessments to serve as a tool so teachers can tailor
the focus of constant controversy, as centralizing teaching to meet student needs.
forces from outside the family We applaud Americas
and community have sought great teachers, who should
to remake education in order be protected against frivolous
to remake America. They have lawsuits and should be able
done immense damage. The to take reasonable actions to
federal government should not Maintaining American maintain discipline and order in
be a partner in that effort, as the classroom. Administrators
the Constitution gives it no role
preeminence requires need flexibility to innovate
in education. At the heart of a world-class system and to hold accountable
the American Experiment lies of education in which all those responsible for
the greatest political expression student performance. A good
of human dignity: The self- all students can reach understanding of the Bible
evident truth that all men are their potential. being indispensable for the
created equal, that they are development of an educated
endowed by their Creator with citizenry, we encourage state
certain unalienable rights, that legislatures to offer the Bible
among these are Life, Liberty, in a literature curriculum as
and the Pursuit of Happiness. an elective in Americas high
That truth rejects the dark view of the individual as schools. We urge school districts to make use of
human capital a possession for the creation of teaching talent in the business community, STEM
anothers wealth. fields, and the military, especially among our
Parents are a childs first and foremost returning veterans. Rigid tenure systems should
educators, and have primary responsibility for be replaced with a merit-based approach in order
the education of their children. Parents have a to attract the best talent to the classroom. All
right to direct their childrens education, care, personnel who interact with school children should
and upbringing. We support a constitutional pass background checks and be held to the highest
amendment to protect that right from interference standards of personal conduct.
by states, the federal government, or international
bodies such as the United Nations. We reject a one- Academic Excellence for All
size-fits-all approach to education and support a Maintaining American preeminence requires
broad range of choices for parents and children at a world-class system of education in which all
the state and local level. We likewise repeat our long- students can reach their potential. Republicans are
standing opposition to the imposition of national leading the effort to create it. Since 1965, the federal
standards and assessments, encourage the parents government, through more than 100 programs in
33
the Department of Education, has spent $2 trillion In sum, on the one hand enormous amounts
on elementary and secondary education with little of money are being spent for K-12 public education
substantial improvement in academic achievement with overall results that do not justify that spending
or high school graduation rates. The United States level. On the other hand, the common experience
spends an average of more than $12,000 per pupil of families, teachers, and administrators forms the
per year in public schools, for a total of more than basis of what does work in education. In Congress
$620 billion. That represents more than 4 percent of and in the states, Republicans are bridging the
GDP devoted to K-12 education in 2011-2012. Of that gap between those two realities. Congressional
amount, federal spending amounted to more than Republicans are leading the way forward with major
$57 billion. Clearly, if money were the solution, our reform legislation advancing the concept of block
schools would be problem-free. grants and repealing numerous federal regulations
More money alone does not necessarily equal which have interfered with state and local control
better performance. After years of trial and error, of public schools. Their Workplace Innovation
we know the policies and methods that have and Opportunity Act modernizing workforce
actually made a difference in student advancement: programs, repealing mandates, and advancing
Choice in education; building on the basics; employment for persons with disabilities is
STEM subjects and phonics; career and technical now law. Their legislation to require transparency
education; ending social promotions; merit pay in unfunded mandates imposed upon our schools
for good teachers; classroom discipline; parental is advancing. Their D.C. Opportunity Scholarship
involvement; and strong leadership by principals, Program should be expanded as a model for
superintendents, and locally elected school boards. the rest of the country. We deplore the efforts
Because technology has become an essential tool of Congressional Democrats and the current
of learning, it must be a key element in our efforts President to eliminate this successful program for
to provide every child equal access and opportunity. disadvantaged students in order to placate the
We strongly encourage instruction in American leaders of the teachers unions.
history and civics by using the original documents To ensure that all students have access to
of our founding fathers. the mainstream of American life, we support
the English First approach and oppose divisive
Choice in Education programs that limit students ability to advance in
We support options for learning, including American society. We renew our call for replacing
home-schooling, career and technical education, family planning programs for teens with sexual
private or parochial schools, magnet schools, risk avoidance education that sets abstinence
charter schools, online learning, and early-college until marriage as the responsible and respected
high schools. We especially support the innovative standard of behavior. That approach the only
financing mechanisms that make options available one always effective against premarital pregnancy
to all children: education savings accounts (ESAs), and sexually-transmitted disease empowers
vouchers, and tuition tax credits. Empowering teens to achieve optimal health outcomes. We
families to access the learning environments that will oppose school-based clinics that provide referral
best help their children to realize their full potential or counseling for abortion and contraception and
is one of the greatest civil rights challenges of our believe that federal funds should not be used in
time. A young persons ability to succeed in school mandatory or universal mental health, psychiatric,
must be based on his or her God-given talent and or socio-emotional screening programs. The federal
motivation, not an address, ZIP code, or economic government has pushed states to collect and share
status. We propose that the bulk of federal money vast amounts of personal student and family data,
through Title I for low-income children and through including the collection of social and emotional
IDEA for children with special needs should follow data. Much of this data is collected without parental
the child to whatever school the family thinks will consent or notice. This is wholly incompatible with
work best for them. the American Experiment and our inalienable rights.
34
Title IX by admitting large numbers of foreign students,

We emphatically support the original, authentic convey our values and culture to the world. Their
meaning of Title IX of the Education Amendments excellence is undermined by an ideological bias
of 1972. It affirmed that no person in the United deeply entrenched within the current university
States shall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from system. Whatever the solution may be in private
participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be institutions, in state schools the trustees have a
subjected to discrimination under any education responsibility to the taxpayers to ensure that their
program or activity receiving Federal financial enormous investment is not abused for political
assistance. That language opened up for girls and indoctrination. We call on state officials to preserve
women a world of opportunities that had too often our public colleges, universities, and trade schools
been denied to them. That same provision of law as places of learning and the exchange of ideas, not
is now being used by bureaucrats and by the zones of intellectual intolerance or safe zones, as
current President of the United States to impose if college students need protection from the free
a social and cultural revolution upon the American exchange of ideas. A students First Amendment
people by wrongly redefining sex discrimination rights do not end at the schoolhouse gates.
to include sexual orientation or other categories. Colleges, universities, and trade schools must not
Their agenda has nothing to do with individual infringe on their freedom of speech and association
rights; it has everything to do with power. They in the name of political correctness. We condemn
are determined to reshape our schools and our the campus-based BDS (Boycott, Divestment,
entire society to fit the mold of an ideology alien and Sanctions) campaign against Israel. It is anti-
to Americas history and traditions. Their edict to Semitism and should be denounced by advocates
the states concerning restrooms, locker rooms, and of academic freedom.
other facilities is at once illegal, dangerous, and
ignores privacy issues. We salute the several states College Costs
which have filed suit against it. The cost of a college education has long been
Sexual assault is a terrible crime. We commend on an unsustainable trajectory, rising year by year
the good-faith efforts by law enforcement, far ahead of inflation. Nationwide, student debt now
educational institutions, and their partners to exceeds credit card debt with average debt levels
address that crime responsibly. Whenever reported, per student totaling roughly $27,000. Delinquency
it must be promptly investigated by civil authorities rates on student loans are now as high as they were
and prosecuted in a courtroom, not a faculty lounge. on subprime mortgages during the housing crisis.
Questions of guilt or innocence must be decided Over half of recent college grads are unemployed
by a judge and jury, with guilt determined beyond or underemployed, working at jobs for which their
a reasonable doubt. Those convicted of sexual expensive educations gave them no preparation.
assault should be punished to the full extent of the We need new systems of learning to compete with
law. The Administrations distortion of Title IX to traditional four-year schools: Technical institutions,
micromanage the way colleges and universities deal online universities, life-long learning, and work-
with allegations of abuse contravenes our countrys based learning in the private sector. Public policy
legal traditions and must be halted before it further should advance their affordability, innovation, and
muddles this complex issue and prevents the proper transparency and should recognize that a four-year
authorities from investigating and prosecuting degree from a brick-and-mortar institution is not the
sexual assault effectively with due process. only path toward a prosperous and fulfilling career.
The federal government should not be in the
Improving Higher Education business of originating student loans. In order
Our colleges, universities, and trade schools, to bring down college costs and give students
large and small, public and private, form the worlds access to a multitude of financing options, private
greatest assemblage of learning. They drive much of sector participation in student financing should be
the research that keeps America competitive and, restored. Any regulation that increases college costs
35
must be challenged to balance its worth against its Obamacare and give America a much-needed tax
negative economic impact on students and their cut.
families. In its place we must combine what worked
In order to encourage new modes of higher best in the past with changes needed for the future.
education delivery to enter the market, accreditation We must recover the traditional patient-physician
should be decoupled from federal financing, and relationship based on mutual trust, informed
states should be empowered to allow a wide array consent, and confidentiality. To simplify the system
of accrediting and credentialing bodies to operate. for both patients and providers, we will reduce
This model would foster innovation, bring private mandates and enable insurers and providers of
industry into the credentialing market, and give care to increase healthcare options and contain
students the ability to customize their college costs. Our goal is to ensure that all Americans
experience. have improved access to affordable, high-quality
healthcare, including those struggling with mental
Restoring Patient Control and illness.
Preserving Quality in Healthcare We will return to the states their historic role
Any honest agenda for improving healthcare of regulating local insurance markets, limit federal
must start with repeal of the dishonestly named requirements on both private insurance and
Affordable Care Act of 2010: Obamacare. It weighs Medicaid, and call on state officials to reconsider the
like the dead hand of the past upon American costly medical mandates, imposed under their own
medicine. It imposed a Euro-style bureaucracy to laws, that price millions of low-income families out
manage its unworkable, budget-busting, conflicting of the insurance market. To guarantee first-rate care
provisions. It has driven up prices for all consumers. for the needy, we propose to block grant Medicaid
Their insurance premiums have dramatically and other payments and to assist all patients,
increased while their deductibles have risen about including those with pre-existing conditions, to
eight times faster than wages in the last ten years. obtain coverage in a robust consumer market.
It drove up drug prices by levying a $27 billion Through Obamacare, the current Administration has
tax on manufacturers and importers and, through promoted the notion of abortion as healthcare. We,
mandated price cuts for drugs under Medicare and however, affirm the dignity of women by protecting
Medicaid, forced pharmaceutical companies to the sanctity of human life. Numerous studies have
raise prices for everyone else. Its silver plans, the shown that abortion endangers the health and well-
most common option on the government insurance being of women, and we stand firmly against it.
exchanges, limit peoples access to their own doctor To ensure vigorous competition in healthcare,
through narrow networks and restrict drug coverage, and because cost-awareness is the best guard
forcing many patients to pay for extremely costly against over-utilization, we will promote price
medicines for their chronic diseases. transparency so consumers can know the cost
We agree with the four dissenting judges of the of treatments before they agree to them. We will
Supreme Court: In our view, the entire Act before empower individuals and small businesses to form
us is invalid in its entirety. It must be removed purchasing pools in order to expand coverage to
and replaced with an approach based on genuine the uninsured. We believe that individuals with
competition, patient choice, excellent care, wellness, preexisting conditions who maintain continuous
and timely access to treatment. To that end, a coverage should be protected from discrimination.
Republican president, on the first day in office, We applaud the advance of technology in electronic
will use legitimate waiver authority under the law medical records while affirming patient privacy and
to halt its advance and then, with the unanimous ownership of personal health information.
support of Congressional Republicans, will sign its Consumer choice is the most powerful factor in
repeal. The Supreme Court upheld Obamacare healthcare reform. Todays highly mobile workforce
based on Congress power to tax. It is time to repeal needs portability of insurance coverage that can go
36
with them from job to job. The need to maintain Better Care and Lower Costs: Tort Reform
coverage should not dictate where families have to Medical malpractice lawsuits have ballooned
live and work. We propose to end tax discrimination the cost of healthcare for everyone by forcing
against the individual purchase of insurance and physicians to practice defensive medicine through
allow consumers to buy insurance across state tests and treatments which otherwise might be
lines. In light of that, we propose repealing the 1945 optional. Rural America is especially affected as
McCarran-Ferguson Act which protects insurance obstetricians, surgeons, and other providers move
companies from anti-trust litigation. We look to to urban settings or retire in the face of escalating
the growth of Health Savings Accounts and Health insurance premiums. Many Republican Governors
Reimbursement Accounts that empower patients have advanced the legal reforms necessary to
and advance choice in healthcare. reverse that trend. We support state and federal
Our aging population must have access to safe legislation to cap non-economic damages in
and affordable care. Because most seniors desire medical malpractice lawsuits, thereby relieving
to age at home, we will make homecare a priority conscientious providers of burdens that are not
in public policy and will implement programs to rightly theirs and addressing a serious cause of
protect against elder abuse. higher medical bills.
Protecting Individual Conscience Advancing Research and

in Healthcare Development in Healthcare
Americas healthcare professionals should not American medicine is poised to enter a new
be forced to choose between following their faith era of technological advance. Federal and private
and practicing their profession. We respect the investment in basic and applied biomedical
rights of conscience of healthcare professionals, research holds enormous promise, especially with
doctors, nurses, pharmacists, and organizations, diseases and disorders like autism, Alzheimers,
especially the faith-based groups which provide and Parkinsons. Just as we today take for granted
a major portion of care for the nation and the wonders that seemed impossible a few decades ago
needy. We support the ability of all organizations to MRIs and CAT scans, robotic surgery, and in utero
provide, purchase, or enroll in healthcare coverage treatment patients a decade hence will have
consistent with their religious, moral, or ethical care and treatment that will make much of todays
convictions without discrimination or penalty. medicine look primitive. Modern miracles involving
We support the right of parents to determine the genetics, the immune system, cures for deadly
proper medical treatment and therapy for their diseases, and more are in the research pipeline.
minor children. We support the right of parents This is the consequence of marrying significant
to consent to medical treatment for their minor investment, both public and private, with the worlds
children and urge enactment of legislation that best talent, a formula that has for a century given
would require parental consent for their daughter the American people the worlds best healthcare.
to be transported across state lines for abortion. We are determined that it should continue to do
Providers should not be permitted to unilaterally so, especially as we confront new dangers like
withhold services because a patients life is deemed Ebola, Zika, Chikungunya, and antibiotic-resistant
not worth living. American taxpayers should not be pathogens.
forced to fund abortion. As Democrats abandon To continue our headway against breast
this four decade-old bipartisan consensus, we and prostate cancer, diabetes, and other killers,
call for codification of the Hyde Amendment and research must consider the needs of formerly
its application across the government, including neglected demographic groups. We call for
Obamacare. We call for a permanent ban on federal expanded support for the stem cell research that
funding and subsidies for abortion and healthcare now offers the greatest hope for many afflictions
plans that include abortion coverage. through adult stem cells, umbilical cord blood,
37
and cells reprogrammed into pluripotent stem cells and most from new devices and drugs, and that the
without the destruction of embryonic human FDA no longer wastes U.S. taxpayer and innovators
life. We urge a ban on human cloning for research resources through bureaucratic red tape and legal
or reproduction, and a ban on the creation of, or uncertainty. We commend those states that have
experimentation on, human embryos for research. passed Right to Try legislation, allowing terminally
We applaud Congress ban on the FDA approval ill patients the right to try investigational medicines
of research involving three-parent embryos. We not yet approved by the FDA. We urge Congress to
believe the FDAs approval of Mifeprex, a dangerous pass federal legislation to give all Americans with
abortifacient formerly known as RU-486, threatens terminal illnesses the right to try.
womens health, as does the agencys endorsement
of over-the-counter sales of powerful contraceptives Advancing Americans with Disabilities
without a physicians recommendation. We support Under the last two Republican presidents,
cutting federal and state funding for entities that landmark civil rights legislation affirmed the inherent
endanger womens health by performing abortions rights of persons with disabilities. Republicans want
in a manner inconsistent with federal or state law. to support those rights by guaranteeing access to
education and the tools necessary to compete in
Putting Patients First: Reforming the FDA the mainstream of society. This is not just a moral
The United States has led life sciences and obligation to our fellow Americans with disabilities.
medical innovation for decades, bringing millions It is our duty to our countrys future to tap this vast
of high-paying jobs to our country and helping pool of talented individuals who want to work and
Americans and people around the world live longer, contribute to the common good. For that reason,
healthier lives. Unfortunately, the continuously Republican leadership led to enactment of the
increasing burden of governmental regulation ABLE Act (Achieving a Better Life Experience)
and red tape is taking its toll on our innovative and the Steve Gleason Act. The former, for the first
companies, and their pipeline of new life-saving time, lets people with disabilities maintain access
devices and drugs to our nations patients is to services while saving to develop assets. The
slowing and diminishing. The FDA has slowly but latter, bearing the name of the former NFL player
relentlessly changed into an agency that more and with ALS, provides access to speech-generating
more puts the public health at risk by delaying, devices. In addition, our Workforce Innovation and
chilling, and killing the development of new devices, Opportunity Act will make it easier for students with
drugs and biologics that can promote our lives disabilities to pursue competitive employment.
and our health. The FDA needs leadership that Persons with disabilities are nearly twice
can reform the agency for our century and fix the as likely to be self-employed as the general
lack of predictability, consistency, transparency population. To encourage their entrepreneurship, it
and efficiency at the agency. The FDA needs to makes sense to include them in the Small Business
return to its traditional emphasis on hard science Administrations 8(a) certification program,
and approving new breakthrough medicines, rather which opens up federal contracting for emerging
than divert its attention and consume its resources businesses. Any restructuring of the tax code should
trying to overregulate electronic health records consider ways in which companies can benefit from
or vaping. We pledge to restore the FDA to its the talent and energy of their disabled employees.
position as the premier scientific health agency, The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act
focused on both promoting and protecting the (IDEA) has opened up unprecedented opportunities
public health in equal measure, so we can ensure for many students. Congressional Republicans will
that Americans live longer, healthier lives, that lead in its reauthorization, as well as renewal of the
the United States remains the world leader in life Higher Education Act, which can offer students
sciences and medical innovation, that millions of with disabilities increased access to the general
high-paying, cutting-edge device and drug jobs stay curriculum. Our TIME Act (Transition to Integrated
in the United States, that U.S. patients benefit first and Meaningful Employment) will modernize the
38
Fair Labor Standards Act to encourage competitive adhering to the rule of law himself. Additionally,
employment for persons with disabilities. We affirm the next president must not sow seeds of division
our support for its goal of minimizing the separation and distrust between the police and the people they
of children with disabilities from their peers. We have sworn to serve and protect. The Republican
endorse efforts like Employment First that replace Party, a party of law and order, must make clear in
dependency with jobs in the mainstream of the words and action that every human life matters.
American workforce. Two grave problems undermine the rule of
We oppose the non-consensual withholding law on the federal level: Over-criminalization and
of care or treatment from people with disabilities, over-federalization. In the first case, Congress and
including newborns, the elderly, and infirm, just as federal agencies have increased the number of
we oppose euthanasia and assisted suicide, which criminal offenses in the U.S. Code from 3,000 in
endanger especially those on the margins of society. the early 1980s to more than 4,500 today. That
We urge the Drug Enforcement Administration to does not include an estimated 300,000 regulations
restore its ban on the use of controlled substances containing criminal penalties. No one, including the
for physician-assisted suicide. Department of Justice, can come up with accurate
numbers. That recklessness is bad enough when
Ensuring Safe Neighborhoods: committed by Congress, but when it comes from
Criminal Justice and Prison Reform the unelected bureaucrats of the federal agencies,
The men and women of law enforcement it is intolerable. The power of career civil servants
whether patrolling our neighborhoods or our and political appointees to criminalize behavior is
borders, fighting organized crime or guarding one of the worst violations of constitutional order
against domestic terror deserve our gratitude perpetrated by the administrative state.
and support. Their jobs are never easy, especially To deal with this morass, we urge caution
in crisis situations, and should not be made more in the creation of new crimes and a bipartisan
difficult by politicized second-guessing from presidential commission to purge the Code and
federal officials. The current Administrations lack the body of regulations of old crimes. We call
of respect for them, from White House intervention for mens rea elements in the definition of any new
in local arrests to the Attorney Generals present crimes to protect Americans who, in violating a
campaign of harassment against police forces law, act unknowingly or without criminal intent. We
around the country, has been unprecedented. With urge Congress to codify the Common Laws Rule
all Americans, we mourn those whom we have lost of Lenity, which requires courts to interpret unclear
to violence and hatred. To honor their sacrifice, we statutes in favor of a defendant.
recommit ourselves, as individuals and as a party, to The over-federalization of criminal justice
the rule of law and the pursuit of justice. is one of many ways in which the government
The conduct of the Department of Justice in Washington has intruded beyond its proper
has included refusal to enforce laws, stonewalling jurisdiction. The essential role of federal law
congressional committees, destroying evidence, enforcement personnel in protecting federal
reckless dealing with firearms that led to several property and combating interstate crime should not
deaths on both sides of our border, and defying be compromised by diversion to matters properly
a citation for contempt. It has urged leniency for handled by state and local authorities.
rioters while turning a blind eye to mob attacks on We applaud the Republican Governors
peaceful citizens exercising their political rights. and legislators who have been implementing
A new administration must ensure the immediate criminal justice reforms like those proposed
dismissal and, where appropriate, prosecution of by our 2012 platform. Along with diversion of
any Department officials who have violated their first-time, nonviolent offenders to community
oath of office. sentencing, accountability courts, drug courts,
The next president must restore the publics veterans treatment courts, and guidance by faith-
trust in law enforcement and civil order by first based institutions with proven track records of
39
rehabilitation, our platform emphasized restorative The internet must not become a safe haven for
justice to make the victim whole and put the offender predators. Pornography, with its harmful effects,
on the right path. As variants of these reforms are especially on children, has become a public health
undertaken in many states, we urge the Congress crisis that is destroying the lives of millions. We en-
to learn from what works. In the past, judicial courage states to continue to fight this public men-
discretion about sentences led to serious mistakes ace and pledge our commitment to childrens safety
concerning dangerous criminals. Mandatory and well-being. We applaud the social networking
minimum sentencing became an important tool sites that bar sex offenders from participation. We
for keeping them off the streets. Modifications to urge energetic prosecution of child pornography,
it should be targeted toward particular categories, which is closely linked to human trafficking.
especially nonviolent offenders and persons with
drug, alcohol, or mental health issues, and should Combatting Drug Abuse
require disclosure by the courts of any judicial The progress made over the last three decades
departure from the states sentencing requirements. against drug abuse is eroding, whether for cultural
The constitutionality of the death penalty is reasons or for lack of national leadership. In many
firmly settled by its explicit mention in the Fifth jurisdictions, marijuana is virtually legalized despite
Amendment. With the murder rate soaring in our its illegality under federal law. At the other end
great cities, we condemn the Supreme Courts of the drug spectrum, heroin use nearly doubled
erosion of the right of the people to enact capital from 2003 to 2013, while deaths from heroin have
punishment in their states. In solidarity with those quadrupled. All this highlights the continuing
who protect us, we call for mandatory prison conflicts and contradictions in public attitudes and
time for all assaults involving serious injury to law public policy toward illegal substances. Congress
enforcement officers. and a new administration should consider the long-
We call on the Congress to make the federal range implications of these trends for public health
courts a model for the rest of the country in and safety and prepare to deal with the problematic
protecting the rights of victims and their families. consequences.
They should be told all relevant information about The misuse of prescription painkillers
their case, allowed to be present for its trial, assured opioids is a related problem. Heroin and opioid
a voice in sentencing and parole hearings, given abuse touches our communities, our homes, and
access to social and legal services, and benefit from our families in ways that have grave effects on
the Crime Victims Fund established under President Americans in every community. With a quadrupling
Reagan for that sole purpose. of both their sales and their overdose deaths, the
Public officials must regain control of their opioid crisis is ravaging communities all over the
correctional institutions, some of which have become country, often hitting rural areas harder than urban.
ethnic and racial battlegrounds. Persons jailed for Because over-prescription of drugs is such a large
whatever cause should be protected against cruel part of the problem, Republican legislation now
or degrading treatment by other inmates. Courts allows Medicare Part D and Medicare Advantage
should not tie the hands of prison officials in dealing plans to limit patients to a single pharmacy.
with these problems. We encourage states to offer Congressional Republicans have also called upon
opportunities for literacy and vocational education the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to
to prepare prisoners for release to the community. ensure that no physician will be penalized for limiting
Breaking the cycle of crime begins with the children opioid prescriptions. We look for expeditious
of those who are prisoners. Deprived of a parent agreement between the House and Senate on
through no fault of their own, youngsters from these the Comprehensive Addiction and Recovery Act,
families should be a special concern of our schools, which addresses the opioid epidemic from both the
social services, and religious institutions. demand and supply sides of the problem.
40
America Resurgent
H H H H H
A Dangerous World naval capabilities are inadequate for their job.
Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist 23 The Air Force fields the smallest and oldest force
that the first of the principal constitutional of combat aircraft in its history. The Marines have
obligations of the federal government is to provide only two-thirds the number of battalions they have
for the common defense of the United States, historically needed to meet day to day operational
and President George Washington wisely reminded demands. The Army is at its lowest troop levels
us that To be prepared for war is one of the most since before World War II. Our U.S. Ambassador
effectual means of preserving peace. and American personnel were left without adequate
After nearly eight years of a Democratic security or backup halfway across the world in
Commander-in-Chief who has frequently placed Benghazi. In summary, we have returned to the
strategic and ideological limitations and shackles hollow force days of Jimmy Carter.
on our military, our enemies have been emboldened Also neglected are our strategic forces,
and our national security is at especially the development and
great risk. Our country faces a deployment of ballistic missile
national security crisis, and only In all of our countrys defenses. The Ground-Based
by electing a Republican to the Midcourse Defense system has
White House will we restore law
history, there is no been delayed and underfunded.
and order to our land and safety parallel to what To curry favor with Russia,
to our citizens. President Obama and defense installations in Poland
We are the party of peace and the Czech Republic have
through strength. We believe his former Secretary been neutralized and the
that American exceptionalism of State have done to number of planned interceptors
the notion that our ideas and in Alaska has been reduced.
principles as a nation give us a weaken our nation. A New START agreement
unique place of moral leadership (Strategic Arms Reduction
in the world requires the Treaty), so weak in verification
United States to retake its natural position as leader and definitions that it is virtually impossible to prove
of the free world. a violation, has allowed Russia to build up its nuclear
Tyranny and injustice thrive when America is arsenal while reducing ours. Meanwhile Moscow
weakened. The oppressed have no greater ally than has repeatedly violated the Intermediate-Range
a confident and determined United States, backed Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (a treaty agreeing to
by the strongest military on the planet. the elimination of land-based mid-range nuclear
Quite simply, the Republican Party is committed missiles) with impunity, covertly testing missiles
to rebuilding the U.S. military into the strongest on banned under that agreement.
earth, with vast superiority over any other nation or In the international arena, a weak Admini-
group of nations in the world. We face a dangerous stration has invited aggression. The results of
world, and we believe in a resurgent America. the Administrations unilateral approach to
In all of our countrys history, there is no parallel disarmament are already clear: An emboldened
to what President Obama and his former Secretary China in the South China Sea, a resurgent Russia
of State have done to weaken our nation. Our aging occupying parts of Ukraine and threatening
41
neighbors from the Baltic to the Caucasus, and an deploy a multi-layered missile defense system. We
aggressive Islamist terror network in the Middle must modernize nuclear weapons and their delivery
East. We support maintaining and, if warranted, platforms, end the policy of Mutually Assured
increasing sanctions, together with our allies, Destruction, and rebuild relationships with our allies,
against Russia unless and until Ukraines sovereignty who understand that as long as the U.S. nuclear
and territorial integrity are fully restored. We also arsenal is their shield, they do not need to engage
support providing appropriate assistance to the in nuclear proliferation.
armed forces of Ukraine and greater coordination While immigration is addressed in more
with NATO defense planning. All our adversaries detail elsewhere, we cannot ignore the reality that
heard the message in the Administrations cutbacks: border security is a national security issue, and
America is weaker and retreating. Concomitantly, that our nations immigration and refugee policies
we honor, support, and thank all law enforcement, are placing Americans at risk. To keep our people
first responders, and emergency personnel for their safe, we must secure our borders, enforce our
service. immigration laws, and properly screen refugees
and other immigrants entering from any country. In
Confronting the Dangers particular we must apply special scrutiny to those
In the face of these threats, the first order of foreign nationals seeking to enter the United States
business for a Republican president and Congress from terror-sponsoring countries or from regions
will be to restore our nations military might. associated with Islamic terrorism. This was done
Republicans continue to support American military successfully after September 11, 2001, under the
superiority which has been the cornerstone of a National Security Entry-Exit Registration System,
strategy that seeks to deter aggression or defeat which should be renewed now.
those who threaten our vital national security
interests. We must rebuild troop numbers and Supporting Our Troops:
readiness and confirm their mission: Protecting Resources to do Their Job
the nation, not nation building. The United States We owe it to the American people and to
should meet the Reagan model of peace through those who fight our wars that we remain the
strength by a force that is capable of meeting any strongest military on earth and be prepared to
and all threats to our vital national security. We defeat any adversary under any circumstances on
will no longer tolerate a President whose rules of any battlefield, including land, air, sea, or cyber.
engagement put our own troops in harms way or Successive years of cuts to our defense budget
commanders who tell their soldiers that their first have put an undue strain on our men and women
duty is to fight climate change. in uniform. This is especially harmful at a time
A Republican administration will begin at when we are asking our military to do more in an
once to undo the damage of the last eight years. increasingly dangerous world. The U.S. defense
We must move from a budget-based strategy to budget has suffered a 25 percent cut in real dollars
one that puts the security of our nation first. This in the five years since sequestration. We support
means that our Republican presidents strategic lifting the budget cap for defense and reject the
vision will include the development of a balanced efforts of Democrats to hold the militarys budget
force to meet the diverse threats facing our nation. hostage for their domestic agenda. Congress and
Special Operations Forces are simply not intended the Administration should work together to approve
to deal with the full spectrum of threats. We need military spending at the level necessary to defend our
a Reagan-era force that can fight and win two-and country. We must not be encumbered by decades-
one-half wars ranging from counterterrorism to old, legacy procurement processes. Americas
deterring major power aggressors. incredible talent and ingenuity must be unleashed
We should abandon arms control treaties by modernizing the military procurement system
that benefit our adversaries without improving and embracing competition among traditional and
our national security. We must fund, develop, and non-traditional suppliers. Competitive acquisition
42
and maintenance of weapon systems, including among spouses. In many cases, they and their
the sustainment and support of such systems, will children have been at war for 14 years. We must
benefit the U.S. economy, U.S. taxpayers, and most strengthen existing programs that offer families
important, the American warfighter. Increased readjustment information and counseling, and we
competition will enable new Department of urge states to help by providing job programs,
Defense suppliers, particularly small businesses, to license reciprocity, one-stop service centers, and
participate in the defense sector. That will promote education.
new demand for skilled-labor jobs, while making the The burden of our countrys extended military
Departments procurement more cost-efficient. The involvement in the Middle East has taken a toll on
increased agility and effectiveness will ensure that our service personnel. Suicides among our military
our troops are equipped with the right resources active duty troops, reservists, National Guardsmen,
more quickly than our current procurement systems and veterans are at shocking levels, while post-
allow. service medical conditions, including addiction and
mental illness, require more and more assistance.
Supporting Our Troops: More than ever, our government must work with the
Standing by Our Heroes private sector to advance opportunities and provide
With Republican leadership, the Congress assistance to those wounded in spirit as well as in
recently passed legislation that begins to reverse body, whether through experimental efforts like the
Americas military decline. The National Defense PAWS (Puppies Assisting Wounded Servicemen)
Authorization Act of 2016 begins to correct the program for service dogs or through the faith-based
shortfalls in our military readiness by reversing institutions that have traditionally been providers of
troop cuts, increasing investments in training and counseling and aid.
maintenance, and rebuilding facilities. It gives our We support the rights of conscience of military
troops the full pay raise to which they are entitled chaplains of all faiths to practice their faith free
under the law and gives the next administration from political interference. We reject attempts
the ability to review operations and funding, make by the Obama Administration to censure and
adjustments, and ask for more money if necessary. silence them, particularly Christians and Christian
All this represents a sound start in supporting those chaplains. We support an increase in the size of
who put their lives on the line in defense of our the Chaplain Corps. A Republican commander-in-
country, while protecting our national security in a chief will protect the religious freedom of all military
dangerous world. members, especially chaplains, and will not tolerate
Military families must be assured of the pay, attempts to ban Bibles or religious symbols from
healthcare, housing, education, and overall support military facilities. A Republican commander-in-
they have earned. In recent years, they have chief will also encourage education regarding the
been carrying the burden of budgetary restraint religious liberties of military personnel under both
more than any other Americans through cuts in the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and
their pay, health benefits, and retirement plans. the current National Defense Authorization Act.
About 75 percent of enlistees come from military Our countrys all-volunteer force has been a
families. We cannot expect that level of patriotic success. We oppose the reinstatement of the draft,
commitment to continue among young people who except in dire circumstances like world war, whether
have experienced the way their families have been directly or through compulsory national service.
treated. We support the all-volunteer force and oppose
We must ensure that the nation keeps its unnecessary policy changes, including compulsory
commitments to those who signed on the dotted national service and Selective Service registration
line of enlistment. The repeated troop deployments of women for a possible future draft. We reiterate
during conflicts in the Middle East have been our support for both the advancement of women in
unusually hard on all members of their households, the military and their exemption from direct ground
worsening unemployment and underemployment combat units and infantry battalions. We affirm the
43
cultural values that encourage selfless service and here at home such as Hurricane Katrina and Super
superiority in battle, and we oppose anything which Storm Sandy.
might divide or weaken team cohesion, including To avoid the overextension of our military,
intra-military special interest demonstrations. we support a larger active force and oppose the
In particular, we warn against modification or current Administrations cuts to the National Guard
lessening of standards in order to satisfy a non- and Reserves. Those reductions are dangerous and
military agenda imposed by the White House. counter-productive because the men and women of
We call for an objective review of the impact on the Guard and Reserve tend to be older and more
readiness of the current Administrations ideology- experienced than their active duty counterparts.
based personnel policies, and Guard and Reserve
will correct problems with forces are currently deployed at
appropriate administrative, historically high rates. The Army
legal, or legislative action. We Reserve alone has soldiers
reject the use of the military in 30 countries. To its credit,
as a platform for social America has a the Republican Congress, by
experimentation and will not sacred trust with our passing the National Defense
accept or continue attempts Authorization Act, has moved
to undermine military priorities veterans, and we are to ensure these troops have
and mission readiness. We committed to ensuring what they need. That provision
believe that our nation is most
secure when the president and
them and their families has triggered another veto
threat from the Commander-
the administration prioritize care and dignity. in-Chief, even though the bill
readiness, recruitment, and passed with overwhelming
retention rather than using the bipartisan support in both the
military to advance a social House and Senate. He would
or political agenda. Military have the members of the
readiness should not be sacrificed on the altar Reserve and Guard train on, and potentially be
of political correctness. We oppose legislative deployed with, equipment that is no longer used by
attempts to modify the system of military justice their active duty comrades. We cannot tolerate this
that would undermine its fairness and due process endangerment of both our troops and our national
rights for all concerned, both the accuser and the security. Therefore, we recommend a permanent
accused. line item for National Guard affairs, one that is
not eliminated by the President and reinstated by
Citizen Soldiers: Congress. The guard is too essential to our national
National Guard and Reserves defense to be a secondary decision.
Our Reserve and National Guard forces are
national assets that must be nurtured in a manner Honoring and Supporting Our Veterans:
commensurate with their role as Americas sentinels. A Sacred Obligation
Their historic mission as citizen-soldiers is a proud Our nations veterans have been our nations
tradition linking every town and city across America strength and remain a national resource. Their
to libertys cause. Since September 11, 2001, the service to their country as community leaders,
National Guard has transformed from a strategic volunteers, mentors, educators, problem solvers,
reserve to a fully integrated operational fighting and public officials continues long after they
force. The Guard has bled on missions in Iraq, leave the military. In the same way, our obligation
Afghanistan, the Balkans, and the Sinai. Today, more to the one percent who defend the other ninety-
than fifty percent of our Guardsmen have combat nine percent does not end when they take off
experience. The Guard has demonstrated its value the uniform. America has a sacred trust with our
to the nation not only in war but during emergencies veterans, and we are committed to ensuring them
44
and their families care and dignity. The work of the will seek to consolidate the VAs existing community
Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is essential care authorities to make a single program that will
to meet our commitments to them: Providing be easily understood by both veterans and VA
health, education, disability, survivor, and home healthcare providers.
loan benefits, and arranging memorial services Like the rest of American medicine, the VA
upon death. We heed Abraham Lincolns command faces a critical shortage of primary care and mental
to care for him who bore the battle. To care, health physicians. Thats why there are long waiting
as well, for the families of those who have made times to see a doctor and why doctors are often
the ultimate sacrifice, who must be assured of frustrated by the limited time they have with their
meaningful financial assistance, remains our solemn patients. This is especially the case with mental
duty. health care, which often amounts to prescribing
As shown by recent controversies at the drugs because there are not enough psychologists
Department, senior leaders must be held and psychiatrists to do anything else. Inadequate
accountable for ensuring that their subordinates treatment of PTSD drives other problems like
are more responsive to veterans needs. The VA suicide, homelessness, and unemployment. This
has failed those who have sacrificed the most for situation may not be quickly reversed, but a
our freedom. The VA must move from a sometimes Republican administration will begin, on day one, to
adversarial stance to an advocacy relationship with undertake the job.
vets. To that end, we will empower the Secretary As a nation, we honor the sacrifice of our fallen
to hold all VA employees accountable and will seek service members at the graves where we lay them
fundamental change in the VAs senior leadership to rest in national, state, and veterans cemeteries
structure by placing presidential appointees, rather around the world. In doing so, we make it clear
than careerists, in additional positions of significant that their ultimate sacrifice and service to our
responsibility. We cannot allow an unresponsive country will never be forgotten. As a party, we seek
bureaucracy to blunt our national commitment. The to honor their sacrifice and comfort their families
VA must strengthen and improve its efforts through by ensuring all veterans cemeteries are adequately
partnerships with private enterprises, veteran equipped and a standard of care established, using
service organizations, technology and innovation, Arlington Cemetery as a guide, that is befitting their
and competitive bidding to enable the VA to better service.
provide both quality and timely care along with all The level of financial distress and homeless-
earned benefits to our nations veterans and their ness among vets is a shame to the nation. For a
families. This will allow the VA to reduce the backlog veteran, a job is more than a source of income. It is
and save immense resources all at the same time. a new mission, with a new status, and the transition
Therefore, let us look to innovative solutions that can be difficult. We urge the private sector to
allow higher quality VA care, reduce backlogs, and make hiring vets a company policy and commend
save immense resources all at the same time. the organizations that have proven programs to
Our wounded warriors, whether still in service accomplish this. We will retain the preference
or discharged, deserve the best medical care the given to veterans when they seek federal
country can provide. We must make military and employment. We urge closer coordination with the
veterans medicine the gold standard for mental state offices for veterans affairs, particularly with
health, traumatic brain injury, multiple traumas, regard to expediting disability claims, since those
loss of limbs, and post-traumatic stress disorder closest to an individual can often best diagnose
(PTSD). Those injuries require a new commitment of a problem and apply a remedy. We will halt the
targeted resources and personnel for treatment and current Administrations unconstitutional automatic
care to advance recovery. That includes allowing denial of gun ownership to returning members of
veterans to choose to access care in the community our Armed Forces who have had representatives
and not just in VA facilities, because the best care in appointed to manage their financial affairs. We
the world is not effective if it is not accessible. We urge state education officials to promote the hiring
45
of qualified veterans as teachers in our public Challenges of a Changing Middle East

schools. Their proven abilities and life experiences The Middle East is more dangerous now than
will make them more successful instructors and at any time since the Second World War. Whatever
role models for students than would any teaching their disagreements, presidents of both parties had
certification. always prioritized Americas national interests, the
Over-prescription of opioids has become trust of friendly governments, and the security of
a nationwide problem hindering the treatment Israel. That sound consensus was replaced with
of veterans suffering from mental health issues. impotent grandstanding on the part of the current
We therefore support the need to explore new President and his Secretaries of State. The results
and broader ranges of options, including faith- have been ruinous for all parties except Islamic
based programs, that will better serve the veteran terrorists and their Iranian and other sponsors.
and reduce the need to rely on drugs as the sole We consider the Administrations deal with Iran,
treatment. to lift international sanctions and make hundreds of
billions of dollars available to the Mullahs, a personal
America: The Indispensable Nation agreement between the President and his negotiat-
For the last several generations, our countrys ing partners and non-binding on the next president.
two major political parties were dedicated to the Without a two-thirds endorsement by the Senate, it
nations security and the advance of freedom does not have treaty status. Because of it, the de-
around the world. Both had learned from mistakes fiant and emboldened regime in Tehran continues
of the past and realized that a weak America invited to sponsor terrorism across the region, develop a
aggression. Both recognized the need to stand nuclear weapon, test-fire ballistic missiles inscribed
with friends and oppose those who wished us evil. with Death to Israel, and abuse the basic human
Whatever their disagreements, both the Republican rights of its citizens. A Republican president will not
and Democratic parties stood for peace through be bound by it. We must retain all options in dealing
strength and strength meant American military with a situation that gravely threatens our security,
superiority. our interests, and the survival of our friends.
This bipartisan commitment has tragically Over the last four years we have seen the rise
changed. The leadership of the Democratic Party, of a murderous fanaticism in the form of ISIS, the
both those in office and those who seek it, no longer so called Islamic State. Its reach now extends far
see America as a force for good in the world. They beyond the Middle East to virtually every continent.
do not stand by allies or stand strong against our ISIS has brought ancient butchery into the 21st
foes. They pander to world opinion and neglect the century. Nations are imploding, erasing long-
national interest. They cannot be trusted to advance established borders. The Obama Administration
either the cause of liberty or our national security in and its Secretary of State so mishandled the Arab
the dangerous years in which we live. Spring that it destabilized the entire region. The
We affirm our partys tradition of world hope some saw in the Arab Spring has transformed
leadership established by President Eisenhower into disappointment. The dictator of Syria, Bashar
and followed by every Republican president Assad, has murdered hundreds of thousands of his
since. It stands for enormous power and the own people and created millions of refugees, and
prudence to use it sparingly, precisely, and only an American president has been unable to rally the
in grave necessity. It stands for involvement, not world against him. Understandably, our allies fear
intervention. It requires consultation, not permission for their future in a region far more dangerous than
to act. It leads from the front and ensures all it was eight years ago.
others do their parts as well. It embraces American A Republican administration will restore our
exceptionalism and rejects the false prophets of nations credibility. We must stand up for our friends,
decline and diminution. It is, in sum, the way we challenge our foes, and destroy ISIS. Hezbollah,
will lead the world into a new century of greater controlling over 100,000 missiles in Lebanon, must
peace and prosperity another American Century. be isolated and Lebanons independence restored.
46
We will support the transition to a post-Assad Syrian Our Unequivocal Support for Israel
government that is representative of its people, Like the United States of America, the modern
protects the rights of all minorities and religions, state of Israel is a country born from the aspira-
respects the territorial integrity of its neighbors, tion for freedom and stands out among the nations
and contributes to peace and stability in the region. as a beacon of democracy and humanity. Beyond
The Iraqi people have been on the front lines in the our mutual strategic interests, Israel is likewise an
fight against terror. Hundreds of thousands have exceptional country that shares our most essen-
been killed, and the attacks against them continue, tial values. It is the only country in the Middle East
even in Baghdad. Our partnership with them should where freedom of speech and freedom of religion
continue as long as ISIS and others like it survive in are found. Therefore, support for Israel is an expres-
the region. We are deeply concerned that, in the face sion of Americanism, and it is the responsibility of
of genocide against them, Christian communities in our government to advance policies that reflect
cities like Erbil are receiving no financial support Americans strong desire for a relationship with no
from either the U.S. government or the UN to help daylight between America and Israel. We recognize
with displaced persons and urban refugees. Their Jerusalem as the eternal and indivisible capital of
survival is sustained only by private charities. This the Jewish state and call for the American embassy
must change immediately. Defeating ISIS means to be moved there in fulfillment of U.S. law.
more than pushing back its We reaffirm Americas
fighters while abandoning its commitment to Israels security
victims. It must mean aiding and will ensure that Israel main-
those who have suffered the
It is the responsibility tains a qualitative military edge
most and doing so before of our government to over any and all adversaries. We
they starve. It means supporting advance policies that support Israels right and obli-
the long-term survival of gation to defend itself against
indigenous religious and ethnic reflect Americans terror attacks upon its people
communities, punishing the strong desire for a and against alternative forms
perpetrators of crimes against of warfare being waged upon
humanity, and conditioning relationship with no it legally, economically, cultur-
humanitarian and military daylight between ally, and otherwise. We reject
assistance to governments on the false notion that Israel is an
their observable commitment
America and Israel. occupier and specifically recog-
to human rights. nize that the Boycott, Divest-
We continue to support ment, and Sanctions Movement
the Kurdish people, whose bravery and cooperation (BDS) is anti-Semitic in nature and seeks to destroy
with our forces merit our respect and their Israel. Therefore, we call for effective legislation to
autonomy. Many countries in the region have given, thwart actions that are intended to limit commer-
and continue to give, substantial assistance to cial relations with Israel, or persons or entities doing
the United States because they understand that business in Israel or in Israeli-controlled territories,
our struggle against terrorism is not an ethnic or in a discriminatory manner.
religious fight. They consider violent extremists to The United States seeks to assist in the estab-
be abusers of their faith, not its champions. We lishment of comprehensive and lasting peace in the
applaud their courage and value their counsel. The Middle East, to be negotiated among those living
U.S. government, together with its global partners, in the region. We oppose any measures intended to
should mobilize its political, economic, and military impose an agreement or to dictate borders or other
assets to support the creation of a safe haven in terms, and we call for the immediate termination of
northern Iraq to protect those ethnic and religious all U.S. funding of any entity that attempts to do
minorities continuing to face genocide at the hands so. Our party is proud to stand with Israel now and
of ISIS. always.
47
U.S. Leadership in the Asian Pacific Critics of the regime have been kidnapped by its
We are a Pacific nation with economic, military, agents in foreign countries. To distract the populace
and cultural ties to all the countries of the oceanic from its increasing economic problems and, more
rim and treaty alliances with Japan, South Korea, importantly, to expand its military might, the
Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand. With government asserts a preposterous claim to the
them, we look toward the establishment of human entire South China Sea and continues to dredge
rights for the people of North Korea. We urge the ports and create landing fields in contested waters
government of China to recognize the inevitability where none have existed before, ever nearer to
of change in the Kim familys slave state and, for U.S. territories and our allies, while building a
everyones safety against nuclear disaster, to navy far out of proportion to defensive purposes.
hasten positive change on the Korean peninsula. The complacency of the Obama regime has
The United States will continue to demand the emboldened the Chinese government and military
complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement to issue threats of intimidation throughout the
of North Koreas nuclear weapons program with South China Sea, not to mention parading their new
full accounting of its proliferation activities. We missile, the Guam Killer, down the main streets of
also pledge to counter any threats from the North Beijing, a direct shot at Guam as Americas first line
Korean regime. of defense. Meanwhile, cultural genocide continues
We salute the people of Taiwan, with whom in Tibet and Xinjiang, the promised autonomy of
we share the values of democracy, human rights, a Hong Kong is eroded, the currency is manipulated,
free market economy, and the rule of law. Our rela- our technology is stolen, and intellectual property
tions will continue to be based upon the provisions and copyrights are mocked in an economy based
of the Taiwan Relations Act, and we affirm the Six on piracy. In business terms, this is not competition;
Assurances given to Taiwan in 1982 by President it is a hostile takeover. For any American company
Reagan. We oppose any unilateral steps by either to abet those offenses, especially governmental
side to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Straits on censorship and tracking of dissenters, is a disgrace.
the principle that all issues regarding the islands fu- The return to Maoism by Chinas current
ture must be resolved peacefully, through dialogue, rulers is not reason to disengage with the Chinese
and be agreeable to the people of Taiwan. If China people or their institutions. We welcome students,
were to violate those principles, the United States, tourists, and investors, who can see for themselves
in accord with the Taiwan Relations Act, will help our vibrant American democracy and how real
Taiwan defend itself. We praise efforts by the new democracy works. We caution, however, against
government in Taipei to continue constructive re- academic or cultural operations under the control
lations across the Taiwan Strait and call on China of the Chinese government and call upon American
to reciprocate. As a loyal friend of America, Taiwan colleges to dissociate themselves from this
has merited our strong support, including free trade increasing threat to academic freedom and honest
agreement status, the timely sale of defensive arms research.
including technology to build diesel submarines, Most of the nations of Southeast Asia have
and full participation in the World Health Organiza- set aside crippling ideologies and sought material
tion, International Civil Aviation Organization, and progress in free enterprise and democracy.
other multilateral institutions. We congratulate the people of Burma on their
Chinas behavior has negated the optimistic emergence from authoritarian rule and urge their
language of our last platform concerning our future respect for the rights of their countrys minority
relations with China. The liberalizing policies of populations. Our improved relations with Vietnam
recent decades have been abruptly reversed, dissent including arms sales must advance efforts to
brutally crushed, religious persecution heightened, obtain an accounting for, and repatriation of the
the internet crippled, a barbaric population control remains of, Americans who gave their lives in the
two-child policy of forced abortions and forced cause of Vietnamese freedom. We cannot overlook
sterilizations continued, and the cult of Mao revived. the continued repression of fundamental rights and
48
religious freedom, as well as retribution against Our historic ties to the peoples of Europe have
ethnic minorities and others who assisted U.S. been based on shared culture and values, com-
forces during the conflict there. mon interests and goals. Their endurance can-
India is our geopolitical ally and a strategic not be taken for granted, especially in light of the
trading partner. The dynamism of its people and continents economic problems and demographic
the endurance of their democratic institutions changes. We recognize with regret the increasing
are earning their country a position of leadership trend among many of our allies to move away from
not only in Asia but throughout the world. We rights and liberties that Americans hold dear, espe-
encourage the Indian government to permit cially freedom of speech. It would be a tragic irony
expanded foreign investment and trade, the key if the nations of Europe which withstood Soviet
to rising living standards for those left out of their repression were to now impose a form of it upon
countrys energetic economy. For all of Indias themselves.
religious communities, we urge protection against We honor our special relationship with the
violence and discrimination. Republicans note with people of the United Kingdom and are grateful for
pride the contributions to our country that are made their staunch support in the fight against terrorism.
by our fellow citizens of Indian ancestry. We respect their decision concerning their nations
Conflicts in the Middle East have created relationship to the European Union and pledge that,
special political and military challenges for the however much other international relationships may
people of Pakistan. Our working relationship is a change, those who were first to our side in our hour
necessary, though sometimes difficult, benefit to of loss will always rank first in our policies and our
both, and we look toward the strengthening of esteem.
historic ties that have frayed under the weight of We thank the several nations of Europe
international conflict. This process cannot progress that have contributed to a united effort in Iraq,
as long as any citizen of Pakistan can be punished Afghanistan, and elsewhere. Their support and
for helping the War on Terror. Pakistanis, Afghans, sacrifice in the fight against Islamic terrorism
and Americans have a common interest in ridding will not be forgotten. We applaud the ongoing
the region of the Taliban and securing Pakistans reconciliation in Northern Ireland and hope that
nuclear arsenal. That goal has been undermined by its success might be replicated in Cyprus. We urge
the current Administrations feckless treatment of greater coordination in economic and security
troop commitments and blatant disregard of advice affairs between the United States and the republics
from commanders on the ground, particularly with of Eastern Europe. We urge that Poland be granted
regard to Afghanistan. A Republican president will visa waiver status and we support placement of
work with all regional leaders to restore mutual trust NATO troops in Poland.
while insisting upon progress against corruption For the people of Russia, we affirm our respect
and the narcotic trade that fuels insurgency. and our determination to maintain a friendship
beyond the reach of those who wish to divide us.
Renewing the European Alliance We have common imperatives: Ending terrorism,
With bipartisan support, President Truman combating nuclear proliferation, promoting trade,
forged the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and more. We also have a common problem:
(NATO) as an alliance of the western democracies. The continuing erosion of personal liberty and
Its continued effectiveness is vital, especially in light fundamental rights under the current officials in the
of recent military challenges in Eastern Europe. Kremlin. Repressive at home and reckless abroad,
With the American people spending on defense, their policies imperil the nations which regained
per capita, four times the amount spent by Euro- their self-determination upon the collapse of the
peans, we demand, as we have in the past, that our Soviet Union. We will meet the return of Russian
fellow members of NATO fulfill their commitments belligerence with the same resolve that led to the
and meet their need for greater investment in their collapse of the Soviet Union. We will not accept
armed forces. any territorial change in Eastern Europe imposed
49
by force, in Ukraine, Georgia, or elsewhere, and of the Western Hemisphere. Their aspirations
will use all appropriate constitutional measures to for economic betterment and political liberty
bring to justice the practitioners of aggression and have deserved better from our government than
assassination. its policies of the last eight years. The current
We urge greater attention in U.S. diplomacy, Administration has abandoned Americas friends
trade, and strategic planning, to the nations of and rewarded its enemies. A Republican president
Eurasia, formerly parts of the Soviet Empire. will never embrace a Marxist dictator, in Venezuela
Caught between their two authoritarian neighbors, or anywhere else. The current chief executive
their path toward democratic institutions has been has allowed that country to become a narco-
uncertain. We urge our government and our allies terrorist state, an Iranian outpost threatening
to work toward the integration of the Central Asian Central America, and a safe haven for the agents
republics into the global economy through foreign of Hezbollah. Now, with their country ruined by
investment, which can bring with it market and socialism and on the verge of chaos, the Venezuelan
political reforms and a firmer establishment of people are fighting to restore their democracy and
the rule of law. Those developments will not only regain their rights. When they triumph, as they
improve the living conditions throughout that vast surely will, the United States will stand ready to
area but are likely to reduce the lure of the radical help them restore their country to the family of the
ideologies that already threaten the region. Americas.
We affirm our friendship and admiration for
Family of the Americas the people of Colombia and call on the Republican
Our future is intimately tied to the future of the Congress to express its solidarity with their
Americas. Family, language, culture, environment, decades-long fight against the terrorist FARC. Their
and trade link us closely with both Canada and sacrifice and suffering must not be betrayed by the
Mexico. Our relations with both of these friends accession to power of murderers and drug lords.
will be based upon continuing cooperation and our We want to welcome the people of Cuba
mutually shared interests. Our attention to trade back into our hemispheric family after their
and environmental issues will contribute to strong corrupt rulers are forced from power and brought
economic growth and prosperity throughout the to account for their crimes against humanity. We
Americas. stand with the Women in White and all the victims
We thank our neighbors in Mexico and Canada of the loathsome regime that clings to power in
who have been our partners in the fight against Havana. We do not say this lightly: They have been
terrorism and the war on drugs. The Mexican betrayed by those who are currently in control of
people deserve our assistance as they bravely U.S. foreign policy. The current Administrations
resist the drug cartels that traffic in death on both opening to Cuba was a shameful accommodation
sides of our border. Their rich cultural and religious to the demands of its tyrants. It will only strengthen
heritage, shared by many millions of our fellow their military dictatorship. We call on the Congress
citizens, should foster greater understanding and to uphold current U.S. law which sets conditions for
cooperation between our countries. the lifting of sanctions on the island: Legalization
Our Canadian neighbors can count on our of political parties, an independent media, and free
cooperation and respect. To advance North and fair internationally-supervised elections. We
Americas energy independence, we intend to call for a dedicated platform for the transmission
reverse the current Administrations blocking of of Radio and TV Mart and for the promotion of
the Keystone XL Pipeline. Apart from its economic internet access and circumvention technology as
value, that project has become a symbol in the tools to strength Cubas pro-democracy movement.
contest between the publics desire for economic We support the work of the Commission for
development and the governments hostility to Assistance to a Free Cuba and affirm the principles
growth. We stand with the people. of the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966, recognizing
We express our solidarity with all the peoples the rights of Cubans fleeing Communism.
50
Africa: The Promise and the Challenge operations of its overpaid bureaucrats. We should
We recognize Africas extraordinary potential. no longer tolerate its managerial scandals, its
Both the United States and our many African allies Human Rights Council composed of some of the
will become stronger through investment, trade, worlds worst tyrants, and its treatment of Israel as a
and promotion of the democratic and free market pariah state. The U.N.s Population Fund has, from its
principles that have brought prosperity around origin, been rooted in no-growth policies that limit
the world. We pledge to be the best partner of all economic development in the countries needing it
African nations in their pursuit of economic freedom most. Its complicity in Chinas barbaric program of
and human rights. The Republican Congress forced abortion led President Reagan to set a wall of
has extended to 2025 the African Growth and separation his Mexico City Policy, which prohibits
Opportunity Act, and President George W. Bushs the granting of federal monies to non-governmental
health initiatives AIDS relief under PEPFAR and organizations that provide or promote abortion. We
the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and affirm his position and, in light of plummeting birth
Malaria continue to save millions of lives. Peace rates around the world, suggest a reevaluation of
Corps volunteers and U.S. Seabees teach and the U.N.s record on economic progress.
build in villages that know firsthand our countrys Precisely because we take our countrys
idealism. treaty obligations seriously, we oppose ratification
We stand in solidarity with those African of international agreements whose long-range
countries now under assault by the forces of implications are ominous or unclear. We do
radical Islam: Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and others not support the U.N. Convention on Womens
like them. Their terror falls on both Muslims and Rights, the Convention on the Rights of the Child,
Christians, on anyone who will not submit to their the Convention on the Rights of Persons with
savage ideology. We urge governments throughout Disabilities, and the U.N. Arms Trade Treaty, as well
the continent to recognize this threat to their own as various declarations from the U.N. Conference
people. We support closer cooperation in both on Environment and Development. Because of
military and economic matters with those on the our concern for American sovereignty, domestic
front lines of civilizations battle against the forces management of our fisheries, and our countrys
of evil. long-term energy needs, we have deep reservations
about the regulatory, legal, and tax regimes inherent
Sovereign American Leadership in in the Law of the Sea Treaty. We emphatically reject
International Organizations U.N. Agenda 21 as erosive of U.S. sovereignty, and
There is no substitute for principled American we oppose any form of Global Tax.
leadership. Since the end of World War II, the To shield members of our Armed Forces and
United States, through the founding of the United others in service to America from ideological
Nations and NATO, has participated in a number prosecutions overseas, the Republican Party does
of international organizations which can, but not accept the jurisdiction of the International
sometimes do not, serve the cause of peace and Criminal Court. We support statutory protection
prosperity. While acting through them our country for U.S. personnel and officials as they act abroad
must always reserve the right to go its own way. to meet our global security requirements, and we
We must not be silent about our countrys cause. deplore the current inaction of the Administration in
That is why we have long supported our countrys that regard. Our service members must be subject
international broadcasting to Eastern Europe, the only to American law.
Middle East, and Asia.
Our continued participation in the United Defending International
Nations should be contingent upon the enactment Religious Freedom
of long-overdue changes in the way that institution The U.S. Commission on International
functions. American taxpayers, the chief funders of Religious Freedom, an initiative of Congressional
the U.N., deserve full transparency in the financial Republicans, has been neglected by the current
51
Administration at a time when its voice more than for American goods and services in a competitive
ever needs to be heard. Religious minorities across global economy. Foreign assistance programs must
the Middle East have been driven from their ancient not only project the best of American values, but
homelands, and thousands, there and in Africa, have must work to create self-sustainability and leverage
been slaughtered for their faith in what the State the resources and capacity of the private sector.
Department has, belatedly, labeled genocide. The Even more important is the overseas assistance
United States must stand with leaders, like President billions of dollars and volunteer hours provided
Sisi of Egypt who has bravely protected the rights by Americas foundations, educational institutions,
of Coptic Christians in Egypt, and call on other faith-based groups, and charitable individuals. Their
leaders across the region to ensure that all religious essential role in international development should
minorities, whether Yazidi, Bahai, Orthodox, Catholic be weighed in any revision of the tax code.
or Protestant Christians, are free to practice their The advance of political freedom and
religion without fear of persecution. At a time when entrepreneurial capitalism drives economic growth,
China has renewed its destruction of churches, catalyzes private sector development, and is the
Christian home-schooling parents are jailed in parts only sustainable solution to poverty. Over the last
of Europe, and even Canada threatens pastors for 50 years, the level of private investment overseas
their preaching, a Republican administration will from the United States has eclipsed aid many times
return the advocacy of religious liberty to a central over. Our development strategy must build on
place in its diplomacy, will quickly designate the recent Republican efforts to use foreign assistance
systematic killing of religious and ethnic minorities to catalyze private sector investment and expertise
a genocide, and will work with the leaders of other in addressing global challenges that can build a
nations to condemn and combat genocidal acts. more stable world and advance Americas national
security and economic interests.
Americas Generosity: International The integrity of our countrys foreign assistance
Assistance that Makes a Difference program has been compromised by the current Ad-
Foreign aid must serve Americas interests first. ministrations attempt to impose on foreign recipi-
In todays world of complex challenges, international ents, especially the peoples of Africa, its own radical
assistance is a critical tool for advancing Americas social agenda while excluding faith-based groups
security and economic interests by preventing the sector with the best track record in promoting
conflict, building stability, opening markets for development because they will not conform to
private investment, and responding to suffering that agenda. We pledge to reverse this course, en-
and need with the compassion that is at the heart couraging more involvement by the most effective
of our countrys values. A strong commitment to aid organizations and trusting developing peoples
international development and diplomacy, alongside to build their futures through their own values.
defense, was a key component of President Reagans
peace through strength strategy. It can sometimes Advancing Human Rights
serve as an alternative means of keeping the peace, To those who stand in the darkness of tyranny,
far less costly both in dollars and in human lives than America has always been a beacon of hope, and so
military engagement. The Millennium Challenge it must remain. Radical Islamic terrorism poses an
Corporation, spearheaded by the last Republican existential threat to personal freedom and peace
Administration, has established a new model of around the world. We oppose its brutal assault on
foreign assistance that helps ensure taxpayer all human beings, all of whom have inherent dignity.
dollars are spent on projects that are effective, The Republican Party stands united with all victims
results-driven, transparent, and accountable. We of terrorism and will fight at home and abroad to
must embrace this model throughout our foreign destroy terrorist organizations and protect the lives
assistance programs and efforts as a catalyst for and fundamental liberties of all people. Republicans
private sector investment to combat corruption, have led the way in promoting initiatives that have
strengthen the rule of law, and open new markets protected and rescued millions of the worlds
52
most vulnerable and persecuted. Standing up for to prevent overseas labor contractors who exploit
repressed religious groups, prisoners of conscience, foreign workers from supporting military bases
women trafficked into sexual slavery, and those abroad or exporting goods to the United States.
suffering from disease or starvation is not just A Republican administration will strategize with
consistent with American values. It advances partners around the world to prevent the demand
important security and economic interests as for trafficking victims that makes exploitation
well. A Republican administration will never say, lucrative and will prosecute sex tourists and
as Hillary Clinton did as Secretary of State in 2009, domestic buyers to the fullest extent of the law.
that raising human rights concerns cant interfere We will work at home and abroad to ensure that
with the global economic crisis, the global climate trafficking victims are identified among migrants,
change crisis, and the security crisis. refugees, and our own citizens so they receive the
The United States needs a radical rethinking rehabilitative care needed to heal and thrive.
of our human rights diplomacy. A Republican Americas continuing participation in the
administration will adopt a whole of government international campaign against human trafficking
approach to protect fundamental freedoms globally, merits our support. The goal of our domestic anti-
one where pressing human rights and rule of law trafficking programs should be the rescue and safe
issues are integrated at every appropriate level of return of victims to their homes, not creating a long-
our bilateral relationships and strategic decision- term dependency upon public support. We call for
making. Republican policy will reflect the fact that greater scrutiny of overseas labor contractors to
the health of the U.S. economy and environment, the prevent abuses against temporary foreign workers
safety of our food and drug supplies, the security brought to the United States. The horrific deaths of
of our investments and personal information in smuggled workers on our southwestern border at
cyberspace, and the stability and security of the the hands of drug cartels and other gangs highlight
oceans will increasingly depend on allowing the free the need for total security in that region.
flow of news and information and developing an
independent judiciary and civil society in countries Facing 21st Century Threats:
with repressive governments such as China, Russia,
and many nations in the Middle East and Africa. Cybersecurity in an Insecure World
Cyber attacks against our businesses, insti-
Liberty to Captives: tutions, and the government itself have become
Combatting Human Trafficking almost routine. They will continue until the world un-
As an estimated 21 million people worldwide derstands that an attack will not be tolerated that
are trapped in modern day slavery, we are reminded we are prepared to respond in kind and in greater
to be vigilant against human trafficking in whatever magnitude. Despite their promises to the contrary,
form it appears. We will use the full force of the Russia and China see cyber operations as a part of
law against those who engage in commercial sexual a warfare strategy during peacetime. Our response
exploitation and forced or bonded labor of men, should be to cause diplomatic, financial, and legal
women, or children; involuntary domestic servitude; pain, curtailing visas for guilty parties, freezing their
trafficking in persons for the purpose of organ assets, and pursuing criminal actions against them.
removal; and the illegal recruitment and use of child We should seek to weaken control over the internet
soldiers. Building on the accomplishments of the by regimes that engage in cyber crimes. We must
last Republican administration in implementing the stop playing defense and go on offense to avoid the
Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000, we call cyber-equivalent of Pearl Harbor.
for increased diplomatic efforts and accountability The Republican Congress has passed impor-
for foreign governments to prosecute traffickers, tant legislation to advance information-sharing
including penalties for any public officials who among entities endangered by cyber attacks. We
may be complicit in this devastating crime. We will will explore the possibility of a free market for Cy-
highlight the need to stop slave labor, taking steps ber-Insurance and make clear that users have a self-
53
defense right to deal with hackers as they see fit. It protect the national grid and encourage states to
is critical that we protect the cyber supply chain to take the initiative to protect their own grids expedi-
ensure against contamination of components made tiously.
all over the world, sometimes in offending countries.
Our own cyber workforce should be expanded with Confronting Internet Tyranny
the assistance of the military, business, and hacker Internet firewall circumvention and anti-
communities to better protect our country. censorship technology must become a national pri-
ority in light of the way authoritarian governments
Protection Against an such as China, Cuba, and Iran restrict free press and
Electromagnetic Pulse isolate their people limiting political, cultural, and
A single nuclear weapon detonated at high alti- religious freedom. Leaders of authoritarian gov-
tude over this country would collapse our electrical ernments argue that governments have the same
grid and other critical infrastructures and endanger legal right to control internet access as they do to
the lives of millions. With North Korea in possession control migrant access. A focus on internet freedom
of nuclear missiles and Iran close to having them, an is a cost-effective means of peacefully advancing
EMP is no longer a theoretical concern it is a real fundamental freedoms in closed and authoritarian
threat. Moreover, China and Russia include sabo- societies. But it is also an important economic in-
tage as part of their warfare planning. Nonetheless, terest, as censorship constitutes a trade barrier for
hundreds of electrical utilities in the United States U.S. companies operating in societies like China with
have not acted to protect themselves from EMP, and advanced firewall protection policies.
they cannot be expected to do so voluntarily since A Republican administration will champion an
homeland security is a government responsibility. open and free internet based on principles of free
The President, the Congress, the Department of expression and universal values and will pursue
Homeland Security, the Department of Defense, the policies to empower citizens and U.S. companies
States, the utilities, and the private sector should operating in authoritarian countries to circumvent
work together on an urgent basis to enact Re- internet firewalls and gain accurate news and infor-
publican legislation, pending in both chambers, to mation online.
54
The Platform Committee
Republican National Committee Chairman

Reince Priebus
Chairman
Senator John Barrasso
Co-Chairs
Governor Mary Fallin
Representative Virginia Foxx
Subcommittee Co-Chairs

Joe Gruters
Delbert Hosemann
Andy Puzder

Rayna Casey
Kathy Kiernan
Leslie Rutledge

Kelly Armstrong
Victor Sprouse
Government Reform
Tom Schriebel
Russ Walker

Carolyn McLarty
Patricia Longo
America Resurgent
Jim Carns
Ron Rabin
Steve Yates
55
Committee Members
ALABAMA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA KENTUCKY

Jim Carns Rachel Hoff Julie Adams
Judy Carns Chip Nottingham Nathan Haney
ALASKA FLORIDA LOUISIANA

Jim Crawford Cindy Graves Sandra (Sandy) McDade
Judy Eledge Joe Gruters Tony Perkins
AMERICAN SAMOA GEORGIA MAINE

Brandon Smart Ranya Casey Eric Brakey
Curtis Scott Johnson Stacey Guerin
ARIZONA
Andrea Kadar GUAM MARYLAND
Lynden (Len) Munsil Juan Carlos Benitez Joeylynn Hough
Margaret Metcalfe Michael (Ben) Marchi
ARKANSAS
John Nabholz HAWAII MASSACHUSETTS
Leslie Rutledge Adrienne King Amy Carnevale
William McClary Bob Maginn
CALIFORNIA
Noel Hentschel IDAHO MICHIGAN
Andy Puzder Vicki Keen Joe Hune
Steve Yates Meshawn Maddock
COLORADO
Robin Coran ILLINOIS MINNESOTA
Justin Everett Stephanie Holderfield Andy Aplikowski
John Lynch Janet Beihoffer
CONNECTICUT
Anthony DAmelio INDIANA MISSISSIPPI
Patricia Longo James Bopp Lynn Fitch
Brenda Goff Delbert Hosemann
DELAWARE
Allison Brokaw IOWA MISSOURI
Timothy Houseal Ben Barringer Hardy Billington
Tamara Scott Bev Ehlen
KANSAS
Mary Kay Culp
Kris Kobach
56
MONTANA NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TEXAS

Seth Berglee Ivan Blanco David Barton
Debra Lamm Diana Denman
OHIO
NEBRASKA David Johnson UTAH
Debby Brehm Tracey Monroe-Winbush Boyd Matheson
Brian Buescher Gayle Ruzicka
OKLAHOMA
NEVADA Marc Hader VERMONT
Juanita Cox Carolyn McLarty Rick Cochran
Jesse Law Darcie Johnston
OREGON
NEW HAMPSHIRE Donna Cain VIRGINIA
Juliana Bergeron Russ Walker Cynthia Dunbar
Stephen Stepanek Thomas Valentine
PENNSYLVANIA
NEW JERSEY Jim McErlane VIRGIN ISLANDS
Joseph Pennacchio Carol Sides April Newland
Jill Space Humberto ONeal
PUERTO RICO
NEW MEXICO Jenniffer Gonzlez-Coln WASHINGTON
Jonathan Gardner Jorge San Miguel Manette Merrill
Andrea Moore Philip Wilson
RHODE ISLAND
NEW YORK Giovanni Cicione WEST VIRGINIA
Thomas Dadey Lee Ann Sennick Melody Potter
Anne Dickerson Victor Sprouse
SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTH CAROLINA Alan Clemmons WISCONSIN
Mary Forrester LaDonna Ryggs Kathy Kiernan
Ron Rabin Tom Schreibel
SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTH DAKOTA Nancy Neff WYOMING
Kelly Armstrong Hal Wick Marti Halverson
Kelly Schmidt Dick Shanor
TENNESSEE
Victor Ashe
Connie Hunter
57
Platform Staff
Ben Key, Executive Director
Andrew Bremberg, Policy Director
Bill Gribbin, Editor
Eric Ueland, Assistant Editor
Mary Salvi, Executive Assistant
David Schiappa, Parliamentarian
Justin Riemer, Counsel
Mary Elizabeth Taylor, Clerk
Allison Curry, Clerk
Sloane Skinner, Clerk
Karen Portik, Graphic Designer
Marcia Brown, Production
Sheila Berkley, Platform Consultant
Mike Mears, Director of Strategic Partnerships
Rachel Packebush, Intern
Administrative Team
Brian OMalley, Ed Cowling, Blake Glovitz, Kim Owens, Will Gillette, Gordon James
Court Reporter
Stephen Mengelkamp, Nate Riveness
Policy Staff
Restoring the American Dream Government Reform

Jeff Schlagenhauf Danielle Cutrona
Eric Ueland Katy Talento
A Rebirth of Constitutional Government Great American Families, Education,

Stephen Higgins Healthcare, and Criminal Justice
Robert Porter Katie Altshuler
Cyrus Artz
Agriculture, Energy, and the Environment America Resurgent
Brian Clifford Jonathan Burks
Justin Memmott Michael Stransky
Robert Wilkie
Former Executive Directors

Ambassador John Bolton, 1984; Judy Van Rest, 1992; William Martin, 1996; Mitch Bainwol, 2000;
Anne Phelps, 2004; Steven Duffield, 2008
Special Thanks
Mike Ambrosini, Caroline Anderegg, Carl Anderson, Alex Angelson, Christine Anton, Sara Armstrong, Michael Babyak, Gineen Bresso,
Tyler Brown, Jeffrey Brownlee, Courtney Butcher, Anna Katherine Cabaniss, Joseph Chang, Jason Chung, CC Cobaugh, Paul Coyer,
Sharon Day, Logan Dryden, Kim Ekmark, Max Everett, Dirk Eyman, Jonathan Du, Grant Gardner, Mike Gilding, Ed Goeas, Jackson Greene,
Julia Griswold, William Heartsill, Rebecca Heilig, Lauren Hernandez, Mike Holley, CJ Jordan, Katie Hrkman, Dave Juday, Kate Karnes,
Sarah Keeny, Jennifer Ketchum, Kirsten Kukowski, Dan Kunsman, Dee Dee Lancaster, Bronwyn Lance-Chester, Gerrit Lansing, Jeff Larson,
Anne Lesser, Ryan Mahoney, Matthew Mazzone, Arjun Mody, Janet Montesi, Kimberly Morrall, Vanessa Morrone, Maison Newenhouse,
Kathryn Neville, Lexi Nord, Denise Northrup, Andrew Olmem, Mike Omegna, Caroline Ozer, John Phillippe, Brandon Renz, Jackie Rivera,
Christine Samuelian, Audrey Scagnelli, Tory Sendek, Raj Shah, Lani Short, Harold Hal Smith, Steve Smith, Veronica Smith, Sean Spicer,
Elizabeth Stangl, Elizabeth Steil, Melinda Stell, Maddison Stone, Jan Sumrall, James Tobin, Lauren Toomey, Courtney Uckele, Mike Vallante,
Evan Walker, Katie Walsh, Lindsey Walters, David Wilezol, Madeleine Westerhout, Kathi Wise
Printed by Consolidated Solutions

The Lanci, Moeritz, and Reville Family
58
H REPUBLICAN PLATFORM 2016 H
H H H
H H H H
Senttime: 07/14/201609:41:49AM
Subject: FW:AnneAPPLEBAUM,"NewcabinetmaysignalBritain'sRETREATasaWesternpower,"washingtonpost.com,7/14op-ed
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,July14,20169:41AM
Subject:AnneAPPLEBAUM,"NewcabinetmaysignalBritain'sRETREATasaWesternpower,"washingtonpost.com,7/14op-ed
[Boris]Johnson[newForeignSecretary]hasbeenabrilliantcheerleaderforBritaininthepastButin
hisrecentcolumnsandconversations,hehasalsomadeitclearthatBritainstraditionalalliances
withtheUnitedStates,withEuropemeanlittletohim.InsteadhehasflirtedwithPUTINISM,praised
BasharalAssadJohnsonsadmirationforrichforeigndictatorsechoestheviewsofmanyleading
Tories[who]arenowquitecomfortablewiththeideaofBritain,orpossiblyEngland,astheDUBAIof
theNorthAtlantic,theSingaporeoftheWesternHemisphere:asmalltradingnation,anoffshore
homeforRussian,Chinese,MalaysianandNigerianmoney,aplacecomfortablewitholigarchsofall
kinds
And:RussianofficialshopefulforWARMERrelationsafter[Boris]Johnsonappointment,
themsocotimes.com,7/14
And:ThedemandofRussiansforPROPERTYinLondonhasgrown21%sincetheBrexitvote,
tvrain.ru,7/14
And:KERRYseeksRussiancooperationdespitedeepMISGIVINGSwithinU.S.administration,
reuters.com,7/14
And:DavidAXE,RussiaisbuildingaNUCLEARSPACEBOMBER.Kremlinclaimsaboutaspacecraftthat
couldfireweaponsanywhereonEarthwithintwohours,thedailybeast.com,7/14
And:Putinhasorderedthat30millionRussiansbeextractedfromtheSHADOWECONOMY,
http://graniru.org/Politics/Russia/president/m.253071.html
And:RussiasenvoytoNATOclaimsNORUSSIANMILITARYACTIVITYinUkraine,unian.info,7/14
And:WelcometoKremlin3:RBCpublishesanewinvestigativereportonpropertyownedinand
aroundthePresidentialResidenceinValdai,meduza.io,7/13Severaloftheauthorsofthisreport
havebeenfiredbythenewownersofRBC.
And:TheFSBhasdemandedalistofalltheeditorsoftheWEBSITEofEkhoMoskvyinconnection
withthe[criminal]caseagainst[Andrei]PIONTKOVSKY,
http://newsru.com/russia/14jul2016/echo_print.html
And:Mydogisnotcomfortableinbusinessclass,NAVALNYIs29pageinvestigationintothe
obscenelyopulentlifestyleofOlgaSHUVALOVA,wifeofthedeputyprimeminister.
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/1801668echo/
NumerousPHOTOS
And:[Hillary]CLINTONiswageringonaspecialistonRussiansouls,
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/13_a_9689129.shtml
OnthevettingforthevicepresidencyofformerNATOcommanderJamesSTAVRIDES.
Senttime: 07/13/201609:36:49AM
Subject: FW:NYTimes:JamesStavridis,RetiredAdmiral,IsBeingVettedasHillaryClintonsRunningMate
From:GlenHoward[mailto:[email protected]]
To:SocorVladimirOlegKravchenkoOlevsNikersPavelShidlovskyPaulGobleWillemdeVogel
ClintonSmullyanJrMichaelE.KavoukjianKTMcFarlandRobSpringWimbushS.EndersMatthewC
zekajPavelFelgenhauerPavelBaevZaurShiriyevPeterWoodAldenWahlstrom
Burnley,JamesH.,IVMichaelWSRyanNickHerasTimothyJ.KeatingFrankKeatingJamesHau
slein
Subject:NYTimes:JamesStavridis,RetiredAdmiral,IsBeingVettedasHillaryClintonsRunningM
ate
HillaryClintonscampaignisvettingJamesG.Stavridis,aretiredfour-starNavyadmiralwhoser
vedasthe16thsupremealliedcommanderatNATO,asapossiblerunningmate,accordingtoaperso
nwithknowledgeofthevettingprocess.
SomeclosetoMrs.Clinton,theformersecretaryofstate,sayshewasalwayslikelytohavesomeo
newithmilitaryexperienceonhervice-presidentialshortlist,andMr.Stavridis,currentlythed
eanoftheFletcherSchoolatTuftsUniversity,fitsthedescription.
DuringhisfouryearsasNATOssupremealliedcommander,heoversawoperationsintheMiddleEast
Afghanistan,LibyaandSyriaaswellasintheBalkansandpiracyoffthecoastofAfrica.
TheClintoncampaigndeclinedrequestsforcomment,andMr.Stavridisdeclinedtocommentotherth
anreferringcallstothecampaign.Thepersonwithknowledgeofthevettingspokeanonymouslybec
auseofthesensitivenatureoftheprocess.
In2012,Mr.Stavridiswasinvestigatedforhavingimproperlyusedamilitaryaircrafttoflywith
hiswifetoanexclusivepartyinBurgundy,Francewithwinemakers.
HewaslaterclearedofmisconductafteralongPentagoninvestigationintohistravelandexpense
s,includingtripshetookwithhiswife,daughterandmother.ThePentagoninspectorgeneralsre
portultimatelyconcludedthathehadfailedtoexercisesufficientoversightoverstaffmembers,
andhadmadeseveralbookkeepingmistakes.
DonaldJ.Trumphasalsosaidheseescertainappealtoselectingsomeonewithmilitaryexperience
asarunningmate,andisconsideringretiredLt.Gen.MichaelFlynn.InaninterviewwithABCNe
wsovertheweekend,Mr.Flynn,alifelongDemocrat,seemedtostumble,offeringhissupportfora
bortionrightsaviewoutoflockstepwithRepublicanbaseorthodoxy.
ButinaphoneinterviewwithTheNewYorkTimesonTuesday,Mr.TrumpcalledMr.Flynnapatriot
.
Mr.TrumpwillcontinuehispublicauditionprocessforpossiblerunningmatesonTuesdaynight,w
henheissettoappearatacampaignrallyinIndianawithMikePence,thestatesgovernor.
Findoutwhatyouneedtoknowaboutthe2016presidentialracetoday,andgetpoliticsnewsupdat
esviaFacebook,TwitterandtheFirstDraftnewsletter.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/us/politics/james-stavridis-hillary-clinton-vice-president.html?
smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share
SomeclosetoMrs.Clintonsayshewasalwayslikelytohavesomeonewithmilitaryexperienceonh
ervice-presidentialshortlist.
From: DavidKramer<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/10/201608:33:59AM
To: Bob<[email protected]>
Subject: FW:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
Justbetweenus.InsightfulcommentsfromEdbelowthePostarticle.
From:EdwardS.Verona[mailto:[email protected]]
Sent:Friday,July08,20163:06PM
To:DavidKramer<[email protected]>
Subject:FW:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
David,
Iimaginethatyouhaveseenthearticlebelow,butincaseyouhavent
FurtherbelowissomethingthatIwroteafteranearlierBloombergarticlefirstbroughtCarterPagesnametolight.Ithought
youmightbeinterested.
Regards,Ed
From:CatalinaPiccato
To:RichardBurtEdwardS.VeronaPhilippeMaze-SencierCarolineWoodwardReneeSlawsky
Subject:TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
TrumpsRussiaadvisercriticizesU.S.forhypocriticalfocusondemocratization
ByAndrewRothJuly7
WashingtonPost
MOSCOWAnAmericanforeign-policyadvisertoDonaldTrumpchidedtheUnitedStatesonThursdayforanoften-
hypocriticalfocusondemocratization,inequality,corruptionandregimechangeinitsdealingswithRussia,ChinaandCentral
Asia.
CarterPage,anenergyexecutivetappedbythepresumptiveRepublicannomineescampaignforhisbusinessexperienceinthe
formerSovietUnion,toldstudentsandjournalistsgatheredinaMoscowlecturehallthatWashingtonhadmissedopportunitiesto
workwithleaderssuchasRussiasVladimirPutinandChinasXiJinpingbecauseithadignoredprinciplesofrespect,equality
andmutualbenefit.
Pagesremarksputhim,likeTrump,atsharpoddswiththeObamaadministrationandtraditionalRepublicanpolicycircles,which
haveviewedRussiainmoreadversarialtermsoverthewarinSyria,theconflictinUkraineandotherissues.Thebilateral
relationshiphassouredtoColdWar-eralevelsinrecentyears.
PagerefusedtocommentspecificallyontheU.S.presidentialelection,hisrelationshipwithTrumporU.S.sanctionsagainst
Russia,sayinghewasinRussiaasaprivatecitizen.HegavealecturetitledTheEvolutionoftheWorldEconomy:Trendsand
Potential,inwhichhenotedthatRussiaandChinahadachievedsuccessinCentralAsia,unliketheUnitedStates,bypursuinga
respectfulforeignpolicybasedonmutualinterest.
HegenerallyavoidedquestionsonU.S.foreignpolicy,butwhenoneattendeeaskedhimwhetherhereallybelievedtheUnited
Stateswasaliberal,democraticsociety,Pagetoldhimtoreadbetweenthelines.
IfImunderstandingthedirectionyourecomingfrom,Itendtoagreewithyouthatitsnotalwaysasliberalasitmayseem,he
said.Imwithyou.
InameetingwithTheWashingtonPosteditorialboardinMarch,TrumpnamedPage,aformerMerrillLynchexecutiveinMoscow
wholateradvisedtheRussianstateenergygiantGazpromonmajoroilandgasdeals,asoneofhisforeign-policyadvisers.Page
refusedtosaywhetherhisMoscowtripincludedameetingwithRussianofficials.Heisscheduledtodeliveragraduationaddress
FridayattheNewEconomicSchool,aspeechthatsomeofficialsareexpectedtoattend.
TrumphasnotoutlinedaspecificpolicyconcerningRussiaandtheformerSovietUnion,butheisbroadlynoninterventionist,
questioningtheneedfortheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationandcallingforEuropetoplayalargerroleinensuringitssecurity.
PagesappointmentfollowedcriticismthatTrumpwasthinonforeign-policyexperience.Trump,inaMarchappearanceon
MSNBCsMorningJoe,wasaskedwhohistopforeign-policyconsultantwas.Heresponded:Imspeakingwithmyself,
numberone,becauseIhaveaverygoodbrainandIvesaidalotofthings....Myprimaryconsultantismyself.
PageisanoutsidertoRepublicanpolicymakingcircles.ButhehasregularlycriticizedU.S.interventionandonThursdayquoted
PutininRussianassayingthathiscountrydoesnotinterveneintheinternalpoliticsofothernations.
InonearticleforGlobalPolicyJournal,hewrote,FromU.S.policiestowardRussiatoIrantoChina,sanctimoniousexpressions
ofmoralsuperioritystandattherootofmanyproblemsseenworldwidetoday.
PagewrotethatthewarineasternUkrainewasprecipitatedbyU.S.meddlingintheMaidanrevolution,areferencetothe2014
demonstrationsthatledtotheousterofPresidentViktorYanukovych.U.S.officialshaveaccusedRussiaoforchestratingthe
subsequentannexationofCrimeaandofbackingpro-MoscowseparatistsineasternUkraine.
PageisnotTrumpsonlyadviserwithtiestoformerSoviet-blocpolitics.PaulManafort,hiscampaignmanager,servedasa
consultantforYanukovychbeforetheRussian-backedUkrainianleaderwasoverthrown.
DearColleagues,
IspenteightyearslivingandworkinginMoscow,bothasaForeignServiceOfficercoveringtheenergysectorand,later,
asanoilandgasindustryexecutive.IworkedanothertwoyearsinKazakhstanheadingthelocalofficeofamajorU.S.
oilandgascompany.Icannotbeaccusedofbeingoneofthepeoplefromafar,sittinginthecomfortoftheirthink
tanksinWashington.Withthatsaid,Itakethelibertyofmakingafewbynomeansexhaustiveobservationson
CarterPage'sbackgroundandviews.
WithPage'sappointmentasanadvisortotheTrumpcampaign,UkrainiansteelmagnateVictorPinchuk(see
highlightsbelow)nowhasalinktobothTrumpandHillaryClinton.Between2009and2013,whileClintonwas
SecretaryofState,Pinchukdonated$8.6milliontotheClintonFoundation.In2008Pinchukmadea$29million
commitmenttotheClintonGlobalInitiative,makinghimthesinglelargestbenefactorofthatorganization.
WhateverotherimplicationstheremightbetotheassociationwithPinchuk,attheveryleastthiswouldseemto
impedeTrumpfromraisingClinton'spotentiallydamagingrelationshipwithaforeignoligarchasanissueduring
thegeneralelectioncampaign.
Accordingtothearticle,PagewasassignedtoMoscowbyMerrillLynchin2004andbeganbuildingrelationships
withGazpromexecutives.AtthattimeGazpromshareswereringfencedtopreventforeignersfromowningthose
thatwerepubliclytradedinMoscow.ForeignerswerelimitedtopurchasinghigherpricedADRs.Russianbuyers,
especiallygovernmentinsiders,acquiredsubstantialblocksofGazpromsharesinanticipation(and
foreknowledge)oftheliftingoftheringfence.Thesharepricerosemeteoricallyoncetheringfencewas
eliminatedinDecember2005.Itwasundoubtedlyalucrativeopportunityforanybodyintheequitytrading
business.
Pagesaysthathe"advised"Gazpromonsomeofitslargestdeals,specificallythepurchaseof"astakeinthe
Sakhalinoilandgasfield".ThisreferstooneofthemostcolorfulepisodesofcorporateraidingofthePutinera.
ThefieldinquestionanditsassociatedLNGplantwasSakhalin2,thenwhollyownedbyaninternational
consortium(SakhalinEnergy)ledbyShell.Previously,GazpromhadshownlittleinterestintheRussianFarEast,
focusinginsteadonitsEuropeanmarketsandupgradingitsinfrastructureinRussia'smorewesterlyregions.
However,whentheSakhalinprojectwasapproachingcompletion,GazpromorsomebodyintheKremlin
decidedthatitwasunseemlyforaforeigncompanytoexportthefirstoilandLNGfromRussiatoAsiaPacific
markets.Onthepretextofhavingcommittedegregiousecologicaldamage,Shellanditsconsortiumpartners
wereeffectivelyforcedtosellhalfoftheprojectandyieldlegalcontroltoGazprom.TherolethatPagemight
haveplayedinthisisunclear(andwaslikelyminor,ifany),buthismentionofitisinteresting.Indeed,thetactics
usedbyGazprominexpropriatingthepropertyrightsoftheconsortiumarelikeTrump'suseofeminentdomain
onlyonsteroids.
Finally,PagesaysthatheadvisedtheTurkmenistangovernmentin2008onattractingforeignequityinvestment.
ItisworthpointingoutthatthefollowingyearGazpromthecompanyPagewaspreviouslyadvisingsabotaged
themaingaspipelinebetweenTurkmenistanandRussiabyshuttingoffthevalveswithouttellingthe
Turkmenistanis.Theresultingpressurebuildupcausedaruptureandexplosionofthelineandamajor
compressorstation.AtthetimeGazpromwastryingtoreduceitspurchasesofTurkmenistanigasand,tomany
observers,thetechnicaldisruptionofthepipelineseemedintendedtoavoidcostly"takeorpay"provisionsinthe
contract.SuchtacticsarebynomeansunusualforGazprom.
Regards,Ed
Senttime: 07/09/201603:58:30AM
Subject: Re:TransatlanticMust-ReadsJuly8,2016
OKay
OnSat,Jul9,2016at6:48AM,RobertOtto<[email protected]>wrote:
Fine.Illbehere.Callwhenconvenient.
OnJul9,2016,at6:31AM,DonaldJensen<[email protected]>wrote:
Iamanti-Trumpandanti-anti-Trump,soofteninaabdmood.
Nisstillsleeping,soafter10?
OnSat,Jul9,2016at6:17AM,RobertOtto<[email protected]>wrote:
NoapologiesnecessaryIwassimplyconfused.youhavetimeforachattoday?
OnJul9,2016,at6:16AM,DonaldJensen<[email protected]>wrote:
MeantanotherRobert,agradassistant.Apologies.
SentfrommyiPhone
Wasisupposedtobeonthisnote?Ifso,why?
OnJul8,2016,at8:15PM,DonaldJensen<[email protected]>
wrote:
WhyinheckdidyoupicktheThrusharticle--Leftwing,sarcastingtone,
insteadofsomeseriousanalysis?
From:CenterforTransatlanticRelations<[email protected]>
Date:Fri,Jul8,2016at8:05PM
Subject:TransatlanticMust-ReadsJuly8,2016
TransatlanticMust-Reads
FridayJuly8th,2016
US,Afghanistan,China,UK,Iraq,NATO,EU,Russia,Germany,Spain,Balkans
US5takeawaysfromClintonsemailreprieve,GlennThrush,PoliticoEurope
US/AfghanistanTheObamaStrategyinAfghanistan:FindingaWaytoWin,AnthonyH.Cordesman,
CSIS
US/ChinaChinaWillNeverRespecttheU.S.OvertheSouthChinaSea.HeresWhy,HannahBeech,
Time
UK/Iraq-Chilcotreport:keypointsfromtheIraqinquiry,TheGuardian
UK/Iraq5takeawaysfromChilcotReportonTonyBlairsIraqwar,TomMcTague,PoliticoEurope
NATOStumblingBlockstoNATOsStrategicAdaptationInitiative,AlexandradeHoopSchefferand
MartinMichelot,GMF
NATOSupportforNATOiswidespreadamongmembernations,DanielleCuddington,PewResearch
EUOnlyMoreEuropeCanBeatEuropesNationalists,GuyVerhofstadt,ProjectSyndicate
EU/RussiaTheEffectsofSanctionsandCounter-SanctionsonEU-RussianTradeFlows,DanielGros
andFedericaMustilli,CEPS
RussiaKarachaevo-CherkessiasGovernorFacesToughChallengeinUpcomingElectionPeriod,
ValeryDzutsati,JamestownFoundation
GermanyWhyEuropeslargesteconomyisresistingthenewindustrialrevolution,Matthew
Karnitschnig,PoliticoEurope
Germany/RussiaGermanyIsRekindlingItsBromanceWithRussia,HansKundnani,ForeignPolicy
SpainInsurgentsvsstabilisers:Spanishpoliticspost-Brexit,FranciscodeBorjaLasheras,ECFR
Balkans-BackingtheBalkans-PrioritizingEUEnlargementPost-Brexit,EdwardP.Joseph,Sasha
Toperich,andOgnenVangelov,ForeignAffairs
FollowalongonTwitterwith#CTRmustread.ClickheretosubscribetotheTransatlanticMust-Reads.
Signupforoureventsmailinglisthere.
TheCenterforTransatlanticRelationsatJohnsHopkinsUniversitySAIS.
From: MarietteHagglund<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/08/201605:24:22PM
To: DonaldJensen<[email protected]>
Cc: RobertOtto<[email protected]>
Subject: Re:TransatlanticMust-ReadsJuly8,2016
Hi,
IdidnothavemuchtimetocompiletheMR,andusuallywehave"5takeaways"articlesfromPolitico,sodidnotcheck
whetherthiswasfarfromthestyletheynormallywrite.Asalways,IleaveituptoDantodecidewhattoputthereand
whatnot,sincehe'stheonedecidingthefinalversion.
Best,
Mariette
From:DonaldJensen<[email protected]>
To:RobertOtto;MarietteHagglund
Subject:Fwd:TransatlanticMustReadsJuly8,2016
WhyinheckdidyoupicktheThrusharticle--Leftwing,sarcastingtone,insteadofsomeseriousanalysis?
FridayJuly8th,2016
CSIS
Time
MartinMichelot,GMF
Senttime: 07/08/201605:15:15PM
To: RobertOtto<[email protected]>MarietteHagglund<[email protected]>
Subject: Fwd:TransatlanticMust-ReadsJuly8,2016
WhyinheckdidyoupicktheThrusharticle--Leftwing,sarcastingtone,insteadofsomeseriousanalysis?
FridayJuly8th,2016
CSIS
Time
MartinMichelot,GMF

Senttime: 07/07/201611:28:15PM
To: Paul<[email protected]>
Subject: fromyourlips......
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/8b12febacb2648c1822e8c586e7241bd/apnewsbreak-state-department-reopens-
clinton-emails-probe
APNewsBreak:StateDepartmentreopensClinton
emailsprobe
WASHINGTON(AP)TheStateDepartmentisreopeninganinternalinvestigationofpossiblemishandlingof
classifiedinformationbyHillaryClintonandtopaides,officialstoldTheAssociatedPressonThursday.
Althoughtheformersecretaryofstate'sclosestconfidantshavelefttheagency,theycouldstillfacepunishment.The
mostseriousisthelossofsecurityclearances,whichcouldcomplicateheraides'hopesofsecuringtoppositionson
hernationalsecurityteamifshebecomespresident.
TheStateDepartmentstarteditsreviewinJanuaryafterdeclaring22emailsfromClinton'sprivateservertobe"top
secret."ItwassuspendedinAprilsoasnottointerferewiththeFBI'sinquiry.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohn
KirbysaidtheprobeisrestartingaftertheJusticeDepartment'sannouncementWednesdaythatitwon'tbringany
criminalcharges.
"Wewillaimtobeasexpeditiousaspossible,butwewillnotputartificialdeadlinesontheprocess,"Kirbysaid."Our
goalwillbetobeastransparentaspossibleaboutourresults,whilecomplyingwithourvariouslegalobligations."
Kirbywouldn'tsayanythingmoreaboutthepreciseinformationofficialsareevaluating.Butwhentheprobewas
launchedalmostsixmonthsago,officialssaiditpertainedparticularlytoasetofemailsthatwereupgradedtooneof
thenation'shighestclassificationlevels.Onequestiontheysaidtheywereinvestigatingwaswhetheranyoftheemails
wereclassifiedatthetimeoftransmission.
AdditionallyThursday,RepublicanlawmakerssaidtheywouldnowasktheFBItoinvestigatewhetherClintonliedto
thecommittee.ThatannouncementcameinatestyhearingwithFBIDirectorJamesComey,whodefendedthe
government'sdecisionnottoprosecuteClintonoverherprivateemailsetup.
Clintonwassecretaryofstateuntilearly2013.Mostofhertopadvisersleftshortlythereafter.
ButKirbysaidthisweekformerofficialscanstillfacepunishment.Optionsrangefromcounselingandwarningstothe
revocationofanindividual'ssecurityclearance.
BeyondtheDemocraticfront-runner,theprobeiswillmostlikelyexamineconfidantsCherylMills,JakeSullivanand
HumaAbedinwhowrotemanyoftheemailstotheirbossthatthevariousinvestigationshavefocusedon.Mills,
Clinton'schiefofstaffattheStateDepartment,hasbeenviewedasapossibilityforthesamejobintheWhiteHouse.
ThereisspeculationthatSullivan,Clinton'sformerpolicychief,couldbenationalsecurityadviser.
"Therecouldberepercussions,"KirbytoldreportersWednesday,sayinginfractionsidentifiedwouldbekeptonfile.
Ifsomeone'ssecurityclearanceistakenaway,hesaiditwouldhaveaneffect"assumingthatindividualstillneededthe
clearancetoworkinanotherfederalagencyorsomethinglikethat."
TheStateDepartmentsaysitwon'tidentifyformerofficialsthatstillholdsecurityclearances.ButinanemailFox
Newsmadepublicearlierthisyear,thedepartmentdescribedMillsasstillholdingavalidclearance.
From: eugeneRumer<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/06/201610:55:10PM
Cc: ChrisBort<[email protected]>ChrisBort<[email protected]>
Subject: Re:RussiaandtheSecurityofEurope-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
IaminFrankfurt,flyinghomeinafewhrs.Yougotosleep.
SentfrommyiPhone
Gotosleep,Gene.
OnJul7,2016,at1:30AM,[email protected]:
Thanks.Hollerifsomethingoutrageous.Bobwillprobablyfindsomething.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJul7,2016,at3:10AM,ChrisBort<[email protected]>wrote:
Apologiesifyouvealreadyseenthis...
http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/russia-and-security-of-europe-pub-63990
RussiaandtheSecurityofEurope
RussiasannexationofCrimeainMarch2014wasthelateststepinMoscowslongprocessof
rejectionofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder,reflectingadeeplyheldviewthatis
unlikelytochangeanytimesoon.WesternstrategywillneedtoadjusttoRussiasconceptionofits
interestsandprioritiesinandaroundEurope.
TheReturnofGeopolitics
Russianelitesareguidedbyadeep-seatedsenseofvulnerabilityvis--vistheWestandfear
Westernencroachmentonthecountryssecurity,economic,andgeopoliticalinterests,aswell
asontheirholdonpowerinRussia.
Theperceptionofvulnerabilityvis--vistheWestincludeseveryaspectofRussiaseconomy,
politics,anddefense.ItisreinforcedbyRussianelitesconcernsabouttheinternalweakness
ofthecountryanditsdirection.Italsoservesasatoolfortheelitestomobilizethe
populationinthefaceofexternalthreats.Theelitesrecognizethatthecountryisinasystemic
crisisbutfearthatsolutionscouldprovedestabilizing.
ThelackofconfidenceintheirdefensecapabilitieshasledRussianmilitaryexpertsto
considerstrategiesforearlynuclearescalationasadeterrentandcountermeasuretothe
Westsperceivedconventionalsuperiority.TheWestsplansforimprovingconventional
capabilitiesandmissiledefensesareerodingRussianmilitaryplannersconfidenceintheir
nucleardeterrent.
AsseenbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentandpoliticalelites,thesecurity
environmentalongtheperipheryofRussiaisprecariousandaddstotheinternalchallenges
facingthecountry.Russianplannersarebeingconfrontedwitharegionrifewithinstability,
localconflicts,andforeignpowerstheyviewascompetingwithoropenlyhostiletoRussiain
everystrategicdirection.
Inthisenvironment,Russiaisresortingtoanarrayoftoolsfromnuclearsaberrattlingto
intimidationofsmaller,weakerneighborstoinformationwarfare,cyberoperations,
subversion,bribery,andotherpoliticalandeconomicmeasuresasmeansofhybridwarfare
orcontinuationofpoliticsbyallavailablemeans.
ImplicationsforWesternPolicy
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsfornotonlythose
countriesbutalsoArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,andMoldova.LackingtheNorthAtlantic
TreatyOrganizations(NATOs)securityguarantee,thesesixbattlegroundstatesremainin
whatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivilegedinterests.Itispreparedtousemilitary
forcetokeeptheminit.AstheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussian
sphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthat
MoscowstilltakesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriously,andthatit
isnotpreparedtotestthatguaranteedirectly.Russianleaderswenttowartwicetoprevent
GeorgiaandUkrainefromeventuallyastheysawitjoiningNATO.Ratherthanchallenge
NATOdirectly,Moscowwillcontinuetorelyonitswidearrayofhybridwarfaremethodsto
underminememberstatesconfidenceinthealliance.
Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrent
capabilitiesinthefrontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATO
andRussia.NATOsactionsintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis,intendedtoshoreupthe
frontlinestates,havetriggereddisproportionateRussianresponses,includingdeploymentof
anti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiestoCrimeaandKaliningradaswellas
threatstodeploynuclearweaponsthere.
AbsentmajorchangesinRussias(orNATOs)outlook,thisadversarialrelationshipwill
remainakeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.
Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoresolvethisstandoff.
Introduction
TheannexationofCrimeabyRussiainMarch2014andtheundeclaredwaragainstUkrainethat
followedmarkedtheendofthepostColdWarperiodinEuropeanhistory.Russianactionshave
destroyedkeyelementsofboththepostColdWarsecuritysystemandthepostWorldWarII
securitysysteminEuropethathadsurvivedfornearlythree-quartersofacentury.Thedamage
donebyRussianactionsisdeepandlasting,withpre-andpost-Ukraineembodyingacleardividing
lineinEuropeansecurityaffairs.AnewgeopoliticaldivisionofEuropehasemergedaswell.Putting
thepiecesbacktogetherinUkraineandshoringupaunitedEuropewillstretchU.S.capabilities.
ThesetwinchallengeswillremainastrategicimperativeforU.S.policymakersabsentamajorshift
inRussianpositionswithrespecttoEuropeansecurityahighlyunlikelyoccurrencewithouta
changeinthecountrysleadershipandgoverningideology.
RussianactionsinUkraineandelsewhereinEuropehaveshockedbothEuropeanandU.S.
nationalsecurityandforeignpolicyestablishments.Few,ifany,analystsoneithersideofthe
AtlantichadpredictedthatMoscowwouldmovetodestroywhatwasenvisionedattheendofthe
ColdWarasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors.1Russianactionsagainst
UkrainecameasasurpriseevenformanyseasonedRussianforeignpolicyobservers.2The
decisiontoseizeandsubsequentlyannexCrimeaandtolaunchthewarineasternUkrainein
supportofRussian-inspiredseparatistswasmostlikelypartofaspontaneous,panickyresponseby
MoscowtotherapidlychangingpoliticalenvironmentinUkraineratherthananelementofalong-
term,well-thought-out,deliberatestrategy.3
However,acarefulexaminationofRussiasownnarrativeaboutEuropeanandEurasiansecurity,
anditsevolutionsincetheendoftheColdWar,suggeststhatRussianactionsinUkrainewere
entirelylogical,perhapseveninevitable,asanextensionofRussianthreatperceptions.Asseen
fromMoscow,therapidchangesinUkrainianpoliticsthecollapseofthepresidencyofViktor
YanukovychandthecomingtopowerofapoliticalcoalitionadvocatingUkrainespro-European
andEuro-Atlanticorientation,includingeventualmembershipintheEuropeanUnion(EU)andthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)carriedwiththemprofoundgeopolitical
consequencesforRussia:theysignaledtheemergenceofnewthreatstoRussiassecurityrightatits
doorstep,threatsthatnoRussianleaderislikelytotoleratewithoutawholesalechangeinthe
countrysideologyandunderstandingofitsnationalsecurity.
FromMoscowsperspective,itsactionsinUkrainerepresentedquintessentiallyaseriesof
necessarydefensive,ratherthanoffensiveandexpansionist,measuresthatwereintendedtoprevent
anevenmoreseveregeopoliticalimbalanceonthecontinentresultingfromNATOandEU
expansionintoCentralandEasternEurope.Attherootoftheseactionswasasenseofvulnerability
ratherthanconfidenceinMoscowsrelationswiththeWest.Ironically,thesecurityenvironment
aroundtheperipheryofRussiathathasemergedasaresultoftheannexationofCrimeaandthe
subsequentaggressionagainstUkraineundoubtedlyleavesRussianmilitaryplannerswithagreater
senseofvulnerability.
EuropeWhole,Free,andatPeaceWithItselfandItsNeighbors?
ThepeacefulendoftheColdWaranddissolutionoftheSovietUnionin1991signaledthedawnof
anewerainEuropeansecurity.Aftertheideologicalandmilitarystandoffthathaddividedthe
continentformorethanfourdecades,EuropeincludingRussiawascomingtogetheronthe
basisofanewvision,embracedbyallasthefoundationforanewsecurityorder.
Thatsecurityorder,describedbyWesternleadersasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitself
anditsneighbors,wouldnotrelyonsuchfamiliarconceptsasbalanceofpowerorbalanceof
intereststomaintainpeaceonthecontinent.ItwouldinsteadrelyonallEuropeannations
includingRussiamaintainingacommitmenttosharedvaluesandadherencetoasetofkey
principlestoguidetheirforeignandsecuritypolicies.Theseprincipleswererespectingthe
independence,sovereignty,andterritorialintegrityofallnationsrefrainingfromusingforcetosettle
internationaldisputesallowingfreedomofchoicebyallstatestopursuetheirforeignpoliciesand
enterintoalliancesanddemonstratingrespectforfundamentalhumanrightsandpersonalfreedoms
instatesdomesticpoliticalarrangements.
NoneofthesecommitmentsundertakenbyallEuropeannationsincludingRussiawerenew.
TheyhadtheirantecedentsintheUnitedNations(UN)charterattheendofWorldWarII,aswell
asmorerecentlyinthe1975HelsinkiFinalAct.4Asiftounderscoretheircommitmentsandrenew
themforthenewera,theheadsofstateorgovernmentofallEuropeannations,Canada,andthe
UnitedStatescametogetherin1990tosigntheCharterofParisforaNewEurope.5Inthat
document,theywelcomedtheneweraofdemocracy,peaceandunityinEuropeand,among
otherthings,pledgedtosettledisputesbypeacefulmeansanddefenddemocraticinstitutions
againstactivitieswhichviolatetheindependence,sovereignequalityorterritorialintegrityofthe
participatingStates.
TheCharterofPariswasjoinedbytheSovietUnion,whosecommitmentswereassumedby
Russiauponitsdissolutionin1991.UkraineandotherformerSovietstatesalsojoinedthe
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope,whichwasestablishedtoimplementthe
visionoftheCharterofParis.
AnothermajorstepintheevolutionofEuropewasthesigningin1992oftheMaastrichtTreaty.6It
wasamilestoneintheprocessofEuropeanintegrationalsoonthebasisofsharedvaluesthat
transformedtheEuropeanCommunityintotheEuropeanUnion.TheEUwouldpursuethegoalsof
promotingandstrengtheningdemocraticinstitutions,establishingamonetaryunion,anddeveloping
acommonforeignandsecuritypolicy.
TheSovietUnionandsubsequentlyRussiaplayedessentialrolesinthistransformationofthe
Europeansecuritylandscape,havingconsentedtoshedtheouterandinnerempirespeacefullyin
thelate1980sandearly1990s.Atthetime,boththeSovietgovernmentandthegovernmentofthe
newRussianstatedeclaredanddemonstratedindeedtheircommitmenttoupholdtheunderlying
principlesofEuropeansecurityandstability.
EarlySignsofTrouble
However,whiletherestofthecontinentcelebratedthedawnofanewpeacefulandharmoniousera
inEuropeanhistoryandembracedthevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors,Russiawashavingsecondthoughts.TheideaofaEuropeansecuritysystembasedona
vagueconceptofsharedvaluesdidnotsitwellwiththeRussianforeignpolicyandsecurity
establishment.Thus,speakingataforeignministryconferencedevotedtoadiscussionofanew
foreignpolicyconceptoftheRussianFederation,thenforeignministerAndreyKozyrevdeclared
thatRussiamustbecomeanormalgreatpower.7ThechairmanoftheForeignAffairsCommittee
oftheRussianDuma,YevgeniyAmbartsumov,welcomedtheforeignministersproposalandwent
further,declaringthatthetimehadcometoabandonidealisticdeclarationsinfavorofrealpolitik.8
AlthoughtheRussiangovernmentwaspreoccupiedatthetimewithaseeminglyendlesssuccession
ofdomesticcrisesthatfollowedthedissolutionoftheSovietUnion,includingacollapsingeconomy
andfiercepoliticalstruggleintheRussianparliament,wherethereformagendaranintostrong
opposition,theRussianforeignpolicyestablishmentarticulatedamoreambitiousvisionofthe
statesintereststhanthedirestateofRussiasdomesticpoliticsandeconomymighthavesuggested.
Insharpcontrasttohisearlierconciliatorystatements,AmbartsumovexplicitlylaidclaimtoRussias
specialrights,evenresponsibilities,throughouttheterritoriesoftheformerSovietstatesand
suggestedthatRussianintereststranscendedthebordersofthesenewlyindependentstates.9
SergeyKaraganov,aleadingforeignpolicyscholarandfounderoftheCouncilonForeignand
DefensePolicy,wroteinasimilarveinthatRussiahadnotjustasetofinterests,butaspecial
missionaheavycrosstobearintheterritoriesoftheformerSovietUnion.10
RussiahadinheriteditsnationalsecurityestablishmentfromtheSovietUnion.Ambartsumov,
Kozyrev,andKaraganovrepresentedanewgenerationofforeignpolicythinkersandpractitioners
withrelativelyprogressiveattitudeswhocouldhavebeenexpectedtoholdmoreenlightenedviews
onrelationswithneighboringstatesandthepostColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.But
theRussianmilitary,securityservices,anddiplomaticestablishmentwereallproductsoftheCold
WarinwhichmistrustoftheWestwasdeepandnoteasilyovercomebydeclarationsofpeaceful
intentionsbyEuropeanandU.S.leaders.11
TheseearlysignalsthatsharedvaluesmaynotbesufficientforRussiaasthebasisforEuropean
securityandstabilitycouldhaveremainedalargelyinconsequentialdiscourseintherelatively
narrowandself-containedcommunityofRussianforeignpolicyexperts.Foreignpolicyinthe
1990stookabackseattodomesticaffairs,especiallytheeconomy,whichwasthedominant
concernofthecountryselitesandthegeneralpublic.However,thedebatewasbroughttothefore
ofRussiandomesticpoliticsandEuropeandiscussionsaboutthecontinentssecurityarchitectureby
twocriticallyimportantprocesses:enlargementoftheEUandNATO.
Thefirstmajorencountersignalingfuturetroublestookplacein1993.DuringanAugustmeeting
withthenPolishpresidentLechWasainWarsaw,thenRussianpresidentBorisYeltsininawritten
statementexpressedhisunderstandingofPolandsdesiretojoinNATO.12Kozyrevreportedly
echoedthatsentimentdespitehavingbeenopposedtotheideapreviously.However,justafew
weekslater,inOctober1993,theRussianpresidentsentalettertothenU.S.presidentBillClinton
statinghisstrongoppositiontomembershipintheallianceforPolandoranyotherCentralor
EasternEuropeancountry.13Yeltsinsapparentchangeofpositionwasreportedlyduetopressure
fromtheRussianmilitaryestablishment,whichstillconsideredNATOathreat.14
ThelaunchofanactivediscussioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesaboutNATOenlargement
transformedtheinitialcracksintheEuropeansecuritylandscapeintoamajordividebetween
RussiaandmostoftherestofEurope.NATOalliesandaspirantsmaintainedthatexpandingthe
alliancewasintendednotasahostilestepagainstRussia,butthatbringingthezoneofstabilityand
securityclosertoRussiasborderwouldonlybenefitMoscow.Russiancounterargumentswere
preciselytheopposite,stressingthemilitarycapabilitiesthatNATOexpansionwouldinevitably
bringclosertoRussianborders.(SeeRussiangovernmentthinktankmapsshowingNATO
enlargementinfigures1and2.)
<Figure_1_NATO_19902.jpg>
<Figure_2_NATO_Post20141.jpg>
RussianoppositiontoNATOenlargementwassharedbypoliticiansacrossthepoliticalspectrum.
TheconservativewingofRussianpoliticsrepresentedbythenationalistsandtheCommunists
opposedthealliancesexpansionforgeopoliticalandideologicalreasons.Theliberalsand
reformersopposeditbecausetheysawitasdamagingtotheiralreadytenuouspositioninRussian
domesticpolitics,vulnerabletocriticismfromopponentswhoaccusedthemofbetrayingRussian
nationalinterestandbeingagentsoftheWest.15
Thevalues-basedapproachtoEuropeansecuritywasfailingtogetrecognitioninRussiaforseveral
reasons:afternearlythree-quartersofacenturyunderanideologicallydrivenandfailedregime,the
populationhadlittleconfidenceinideasingeneralthismistrustwasreinforcedbythenewRussian
governmentsfailuretodeliveranddemonstratetothepublicthetangiblebenefitsofthenewruling
ideologyofthemarketanddemocracy,asthecountrylimpedfromonecrisistothenext.
AfterbeingcutofffromWesternpoliticalsciencefordecades,Russianinternationalrelations
scholarswereavidlyabsorbingideasputforthbyleadingWesternpoliticalscientists.Themost
prominentamongthemwereSamuelHuntingtonandZbigniewBrzezinski,whosebooksTheClash
ofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrderandTheGrandChessboardrespectively
approachedcontemporaryinternationalrelationsfrompointsofviewthatrejectedtheveryideaof
avalues-basedsecuritysysteminEuropeandEurasia.16Huntingtonsvolume,asthetitlesuggests,
predictedaconflictpittingWesterncivilizationanditsliberalideologyagainstothercivilizations
guidedbyotherideas.BrzezinskiarguedthatitwasimportantfortheUnitedStatestoprevent
anothermajorpowerreadRussiafromdominatingtheEurasianlandmass.
TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposed
NATOsinterventioninYugoslaviaas,amongother
reasons,apotentialprecedentforsimilaractionby
NATOinRussiaorarounditsperiphery.18
InlightofthesetwobooksbyleadingAmericanforeignpolicythinkerswidelyregardedinRussia
asspeakingforWashingtonsforeignpolicyestablishment,itwaseasyforRussianforeignand
nationalsecuritypolicymakers,manyofthemproductsoftheColdWar,tobeskepticalofU.S.and
alliesreassurancesaboutvalues-basedsecurityarrangementsforEuropeandEurasia.Whilethe
ideaofNATOextendingitsmembershipbeyondEuropewasnotbroughtupeveninthemost
ambitiousdiscussionsofthealliancesfutureatthetime,NATOdidextenditsreachintoCentral
AsiathroughitsPartnershipforPeaceprogram.17ThatcouldhavebeeninterpretedbyRussian
militaryplannersasamaneuvertoencircleRussia,notwithstandingthefactthatRussiaitselfhad
joinedthePartnershipforPeace.
AnotherfactorshapingRussianthreatperceptionswithrespecttoNATOandEuropeansecurity
wastheconflictintheformerYugoslavia.ForRussia,stillreelingfromthedissolutionoftheSoviet
Unionandstrugglingtoovercomemultiplepoliticalandeconomicchallenges,theviolentbreakupof
Yugoslaviawasacontinuingreminderofthedangersithadbarelyescaped.TheRussian
governmentvehementlyopposedNATOsinterventioninYugoslaviaas,amongotherreasons,a
potentialprecedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussiaorarounditsperiphery.18TheRussian
militarysbrutaltacticsduringthe19941996warinChechnyadrewwidespreadcondemnation
fromtheWest.ThepossibilityofaNATOinterventioninthebreakawayrepublic,nomatterhow
improbabletomostseasonedobservers,wasnonethelesswidelydiscussedinRussia.19
TheargumentputforthbytheWestthatNATOsinterventioninYugoslaviawasmotivatedby
humanitarianconsiderationsonlyreinforcedRussianoppositiontothecampaignandresistanceto
NATOsenlargement.FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theextraditionand
trialoftheformerYugoslavstrongmanSlobodanMiloeviundoubtedlyservedasareminderthat
atsomefuturetimeaweakenedRussiangovernmentcouldbeforcedtosurrendertheleadersof
themilitarycampaigninChechnyaandthattheywouldfindthemselvesontrialforwarcrimes
beforeaninternationaltribunal.20
FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theonlyguaranteeagainstsuchevents
wasthevastnucleararsenalRussiahadinheritedfromtheSovietUnion.Russiannationalsecurity
documentsfromthe1990sonwardhavestressedtheuniqueroleofnuclearweaponsasthe
ultimateperhapseventheonlyguaranteeofRussiansovereigntyandstrategicindependence.21
ButalthoughnuclearweaponswereindispensableasaguaranteeagainstWesterninterventionin
Russia,theywerefarlessusefulwhenitcametointerveningincrisesbeyondRussiasbordersand
projectingMoscowsinterestsbeyondtheborders.Thenucleararsenalwasoflittleusewhenit
cametodeterringNATOenlargementeverclosertoRussianbordersandsecuringasphereof
influenceforRussiaarounditsperipheryalong-standingRussianobjectivearticulatedasearlyas
1992byleadingRussianforeignpolicythinkersandpractitioners.Forthat,Russiawouldhaveto
rebuilditsconventionalcapabilities,whichinturnwouldrequireacommitmentofsignificant
economicresources.
AStrongWarning
Duringthefirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,Russiaenjoyedamajoreconomicrebound.In
thedecadefromthefinancialcollapseof1998totheendofVladimirPutinssecondpresidential
termin2008,Russiangrossdomesticproduct(GDP)grewfromjustunder$300billiontonearly
$1.7trillionincurrentprices.22Astheeconomyreboundedanddomesticpoliticsstabilized,the
Russiangovernmentassumedafarmoreprominentpositionintheinternationalarenathanduring
the1990s.Russiabecameafull-fledgedmemberoftheG8industrializedeconomiesandasserted
itselfasastrongandindependentvoiceonmajorissues,fromEuropeansecuritytothewarinIraq.
Themostnotableandforcefulstatementonforeignandsecuritypolicyfromthatperiodcamefrom
Putinpersonally,deliveredattheMunichSecurityConferencein2007.Thespeech,describedby
someintheaudienceasColdWarlike,clearlylaidoutRussianrejectionofthepostColdWar
securityorderinEurope.23TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATOenlargementasa
provocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledallianceseekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.In
puttingitsmilitaryforcesrightuptoRussiasborder,Putinsaid,NATOwasinviolationof
assurancesgiventoRussiaattheendoftheColdWar.Thisunilateral,unipolar,U.S.-centric
securitymodel,heconcluded,wasunacceptable.
Moreover,accordingtothenarrativewidelyheldinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishment,NATO
enlargementwasnotonlyalandgrabthatupsetthegeopoliticalbalanceinEurope,butitalso
constitutedaviolationofassurancesgivenbyWesternleaderstothenSovietpresidentMikhail
GorbachevthatinexchangeforGermanysreunificationandNATOmembership,thealliance
wouldnotexpandeastward.24Thenatureofthisclaimhasbeenrepeatedlydisputed.25And
documentaryevidencetosupportithasbeenambiguousatbesttosaynothingofitspractical
irrelevance,fornobody,notevenRussianofficials,proposestoundoNATOenlargement.Still,the
ideathattheWestbrokeitspromisehasbecomeanintegralpartofRussiandiscussionsabout
postColdWarsecurityinEurope.
TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATO
enlargementasaprovocativeunilaterallandgrabby
theU.S.-ledallianceseekingtoexpanditssphereof
influence.
RussianleadersopposedEuropespostColdWarsecurityorderalsoonideologicalgrounds.
TheycriticizedU.S.andEuropeaneffortstopromotedemocracyaroundtheperipheryofRussiaas
athinlydisguisedpursuitoftheWestsexpandedsphereofinfluence.26Theyalsoviewedtheefforts
asadeeplydestabilizingundertakingthatthreatenedthestabilityandsecurityofneighboringstates
andevenheldoutthepossibilityofunderminingRussiasownhard-wondomesticstability.Beyond
that,thepushbytheWesttopromotedemocracyinsideRussiawasdeclaredbyRussianleaders
asaviolationofRussiansovereigntyandpotentiallydestabilizinganddeeplythreateningtothePutin
administrationitself.
AsRussiasowndomesticpoliticstookonamoreauthoritarianturnandPutinconsolidatedmore
power,hecameundercriticismfromWesternleaders.27CombinedwithenthusiasticWestern
expressionsofsupportfortheRoseRevolutioninGeorgiain2003andtheOrangeRevolutionin
Ukrainein20042005bothcrisesinwhichRussiaandtheWestwerepittedagainsteachother
throughproxyfactionstheWestssupportfordemocracythroughtheever-expandingreachof
theEUandNATOemergedasthemostcontentiousissueinrelationswithRussia.Buildingonthe
majorthemeofhisMunichaddress,PutindeliveredafurtherwarningtoNATOatthealliances
2008Bucharestsummit.NATOspromiseoffuturemembershiptoGeorgiaandUkraine,hesaid,
constitutedadirectthreattoRussiansecurity.Inanominouspreviewoffutureevents,hespoke
ofthehistorictiesbetweenRussiaandtheethnicRussianpopulationsofeasternUkraineand
Crimeaandthepopulationsdesireforclosetieswiththemotherland.28
AsiftheRussianpresidentstwowarningswerenotenough,thewarwithGeorgiain2008senta
furthermessagetotheWest,aswellastoRussiasneighbors,thatPutinmeantwhathesaid.Ina
statementonRussiantelevisionintheimmediateaftermathofthewarinGeorgia,thenpresident
DmitryMedvedevdeclaredcountriesaroundRussiasperipheryasasphereofRussias
privilegedinterests.29NostatementdeliveredbyaRussianleaderpriortothewarof2008had
signaledwithgreaterclarityMoscowsrejectionofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEurope.
Medvedevwoulddividethecontinentintospheresofinterestsandinfluence,andhewasfully
committedtodefendRussiasspherefromencroachmentbyotherpowers.
ThewarinGeorgiadeliveredtwoverydistinctmessagestotwodifferentaudiences.TotheWest,
themessagewastostayoutofthesphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.ToRussia,themessage
wasthatdespitethesuccessfulcampaignagainstitstinyneighbor,theRussianmilitarywasinneed
offar-reachingreform.30Russianeededthecapabilitybeyonditsnucleararsenaltodefendits
interestsanddeterthosewhomightconsiderinfringingonthem.Themilitaryreformlaunchedinthe
aftermathofthewarinGeorgiaandaprogramofmilitarymodernizationwereintendedtogive
Russiathecapabilitytodojustthat.31
TheBreak
The20082012interregnumbetweenPutinssecondandthirdtermsaspresidentwasaperiodof
relativecalminRussiasrelationswiththeWest.CombinedwiththeresetwithRussiabeginningin
2009bytheadministrationofU.S.PresidentBarackObama,otherimperativesthewarin
Afghanistan,Iransnuclearprogram,thecrisisinLibyatookprecedenceoverNATO
enlargement.Atthesametime,newlylauncheddebatesinsideRussiaaboutdomesticpoliticaland
economicmodernizationheldouttheprospectofRussiareturningtothepathofdemocratization
andamorecooperativerelationshipwiththeWest.32Inaddition,NATOlackedthenecessary
consensustopushforGeorgiasmembershipintheallianceintheaftermathofthewarof2008.
Andin2010,UkraineremovedNATOmembershipfromitslistofnationalsecuritypriorities
altogether.33
ThecalmwasbrokenbydevelopmentsinsideRussia.Putinsdecisiontoreclaimthepresidency
fromMedvedevwasmetwithlarge-scaleprotestsunprecedentedinthehistoryofmodernRussia
byproponentsoffurtherpoliticalandeconomicreformsthathadbeendebatedduring
Medvedevspresidency.34TheprotestsweregreetedintheWestasamanifestationofRussias
democraticspiritandpoliticalreawakening.35
TheresponsefromthePutinadministrationwasharsh.Itincludedaseriesofnewlegislativesteps
tolimittheRussianpublicsspaceforpoliticalprotestscourtactionsagainstprotestersanda
mediacampaignaccusingtheWestofinstigatingprotestsinRussiatoundermineandweakenit.36
TheWestwaspromotinginRussiavaluesthatwerealientoRussiansociety,theKremlincharged,
embracingthesloganRussiaisnotEurope.37Putinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionof
Russiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.Twodecadesaftersigningonto
thevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiafinally
abandonedit.
Putinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionof
Russiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferent
valuessystems.
ThisbreakalsomanifesteditselfinRussianforeignpolicy,particularlyinrelationswiththeformer
Sovietstates.BuildingonearlierRussianpronouncementsaboutasphereofinfluenceandinterests,
andthedangerposedbytheWestsgeopoliticalexpansion,PutinelevatedEurasianintegration
thegatheringoftheformerSovietstatesaroundRussiatothetopofhisforeignpolicyagendafor
histhirdterm.38BuildingontheRussia-Kazakhstan-Belaruscustomsunionestablishedin2000,
PutinproposedtomovetowardaCommonEconomicSpace,eventuallyproceedingtoapolitical
Eurasianunion,allvaguelypatternedontheEUandrathertransparentlyintendedtocreatea
regionalcounterweighttoit.InPutinswords,theEurasianunionwouldbecomeapowerful
supranationalassociationcapableofbecomingoneofthepolesinthemodernworldareference
tothelong-standingRussianpreferenceforamultipolarinternationalsystemandrejectionofthe
U.S.-dominatedunipolarworld.39
PutinspolicyofEurasianintegrationstoodindirectconflictwiththeEUsEuropeanNeighborhood
Policy,whichisintendedtobringcountriesontheEUseasternbordersclosertoitbyofferingthem
AssociationAgreements.40Theseagreementsaredesignedtopromotepolitical,economic,and
rule-of-lawreformsincountriesofEasternEuropeandencouragetheircloserpoliticaland
commercialtiestotheEU.SeveralEasternEuropeancountriesArmenia,Georgia,Moldova,and
UkrainewereintheprocessofnegotiatingAssociationAgreementswiththeEUwhenPutin
announcedhisvisionofEurasianintegration.Ukrainewasthelargestamongthemandstrategically
themostimportantforRussia.
ThegovernmentofUkrainethesecondmostpopulousformerSovietrepublicandthecritical
bridgebetweenRussiaandEuropewasengagedintwosimultaneousnegotiations.Onewaswith
RussiaaboutjoiningitseconomicintegrationprojecttheotherwaswiththeEUaboutan
AssociationAgreement.Withthetwodeemedincompatible,Kyivwouldeventuallyhavetochoose
oneortheother.41
ForRussia,forPutinpersonally,thelossofUkrainetotheEUwouldnotbeatolerableoutcome.
Thiswasduetoseveralreasons.In2004,PutinscandidateforthepresidencyofUkraine,Viktor
Yanukovych,wasdefeatedbytheOrangeRevolutionencouragedbytheWest.Anotherdefeatof
similarmagnitudeatthehandsoftheEUwasnotanoptionfortheRussianpresidentafterhehad
elevatedEurasianintegrationtothetopofhispolicyagendaasacounterweighttotheUnitedStates
andtheEU.
Moreover,allformerSovietsatellitesthathadjoinedtheEUalsojoinedNATO.Ukraines
AssociationAgreementwiththeEUwasundoubtedlyseenbytheKremlinasasteptoward
membershipintheEUand,eventually,inNATO.ThiswouldallowNATOspresencewithin300
milesofMoscow.AsseenfromMoscow,thiswouldalsomeanthatkeyUkrainiandefense
enterprisesthatsuppliedtheRussianmilitarywithcriticalcomponentswouldbelocatedonNATO
territory.42
AnothersignificantdependenceofRussiaonUkrainehastodowithenergysuppliestoEurope.
Ukraineisthecriticaltransitcountry,withasmuchashalfofRussiangasexportedtoEurope
deliveredthroughtheDruzhbapipelinethatcrossesUkraine.43U.S.andEuropeanleadershave
longcomplainedaboutEuropesdependenceonRussiangasandtheinfluenceitgivesMoscow
overthecontinent.SomehavearguedforNATOtotakeonthemissionofsecuringEuropes
energysupply.44ForRussia,theprospectofUkrainejoiningNATOorbecomingasatelliteofthe
EUwouldtranslateintoanunacceptablelossofpowerandinfluence.
Notwithstandingallthesestrategicconsiderations,thecrisisinUkraineapparentlycameasa
surprisefortheKremlin.45TheseverityofitsresponsetothecrisistheannexationofCrimea,the
warineasternUkraine,thevirulentpoliticalpropagandacampaignagainstthenewgovernmentof
UkraineandtheWestforsupportingit,andthedestructionoftheentirepostColdWarEuropean
securitysystemreflecttheperceptionsofthreatassociatedbyRussiannationalsecurityelitewith
thepotentiallossofUkrainetoNATOandtheEU.
TheNewOldThreat
TheshockwavesinEurope,intheUnitedStates,andaroundtheperipheryofRussiafromRussian
actionsinUkraine(andsubsequentlyinSyria)haveamountedtoafundamentalreassessmentof
Russia,itsmilitarycapabilities,anditsresolvetousethem.46TheperceptionofRussiaasasecond-
ratepower,whosemilitarycapabilitieswerebadlydamagedbytheimplosionoftheSovietstate
andneverrecovered,hasbeenreplacedwithnewlyalarmedassessmentsoftheRussianmilitary
threatnotseenbyWesternpublicsinageneration.47EventheRussianNavy,longwrittenofffor
deadasapresenceinthehighseas,isthesubjectofanew,widelypublicizedreportbytheU.S.
OfficeofNavalIntelligence.48
Indeed,theswiftandapparentlyefficienttakeoverofCrimea,themilitaryinterventionandcovert
operationineasternUkraine,andmostrecentlythemissioninSyriahavehadatransformational
effectontheimageoftheRussianmilitaryabroadandathome.However,withthese
accomplishmentsonandoffthebattlefieldcameaseriesofsoberingRussianreassessmentsofthe
newsecurityenvironmentsurroundingRussiainpost-postColdWarEuropeandEurasia.
Paradoxically,Russianmilitarysuccesseshaveresultedinnewthreatsandnewchallenges,andthey
havegeneratedaprofoundfeelingofuneaseamongRussianmilitaryexperts.Threatassessments
foundinofficialRussiandocuments,statementsoftopofficials,andprivate-sectorcommentators
describeauniformlybleakpicture.Inthewordsofoneauthoritativeobserver,Europesfailureto
secureitselfbehindabufferzoneestablishedwiththehelpoftheEUsEasternPartnership,which
includesArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkraine,hasmeantthatRussia
cannothidebehindabufferzoneeither.49Russiacannolongercountonthesecountriesasfriendly
andcapableofshieldingRussiaswesternandsouthernborders.
ThebreakinrelationswiththeWestNATOscontinuingplansforexpansion,itssupportfor
Ukraine,itsmilitarydeploymentsalongitsEasternflankandplansformoresuchdeployments,and
itslong-standingnuclearthreattoRussiaandcentersforcybersecurityandinformationwarfarein
theBalticstatesmakeupthenewthreatenvironmentRussiandefenseplannersarehavingto
confront.Andthatisnoteventhecompletelist,whichomitsawiderangeofrealandpotential
threatsfromtheself-proclaimedIslamicStatespresenceinIraqandSyriatoJapansnew
legislationgoverningtheuseofitsSelf-DefenseForcesabroad.Thisisthenewthreatenvironment
inwhichthearmedforcesoftheRussianstatehavetocarryouttheirmissionofdefendingand
protectingthesovereigntyoftheRussianstate,notedDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu,appearing
beforetheyear-endmeetingofseniorMinistryofDefenseofficialsattendedbyPutin.50
ThenewNationalSecurityStrategythatPutinsignedintolawonDecember31,2015,echoed
manyofthesamethemes.51ThedocumentidentifiedtheUnitedStatesanditsalliesastheprincipal
threattoRussia,astheWestseekstohangontoitsdominantpositionintheworld.NATO
enlargementcontinuesapace,withtheallianceaspiringtoaglobalmission.NATO,accordingtothe
newdocument,underminesinternationalsecurity,internationallaw,andarms-controltreaties
acquiresnewmilitarycapabilitiesanddeploysitsmilitaryinfrastructureeverclosertotheterritory
oftheRussianFederation,threateningitssecurity.InUkraine,thedocumentcontinues,NATOand
theEUhavesupportedanunconstitutionalcoupthattriggeredaprofoundsplitinUkrainiansociety
andresultedinanewsourceofinstabilityinEurope.
ThisisallpartandparcelofU.S.strategyinEurasia,accordingtothenowdeceasedheadof
Russianmilitaryintelligence,GeneralIgorSergun.52Writingin2015,heassertedthatthelong-term
U.S.goalwastoencircleRussiaandChinawitharingofregimesloyaltotheUnitedStatesand
flashpointsthatwouldreliablypreventRussiafromcarryingoutitsEurasianintegrationproject.
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandtodate
andinthefuturehavebrokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythealliesnottostation
permanentlysubstantialcombatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembers.Regardlessofthecaveat
thatthepromisewasconditionedonthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironment,which
wasupendedbytheannexationofCrimeaandaggressionineasternUkrainetherecanbelittle
doubtthatthereinforcementsareperceivedbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentasitsworst
expectationscomingtrue.53Whetherthesereinforcementswillconstituteapermanentorpersistent
presenceislikelytobeoflittleconsequenceforRussiananalysts,foreitheronewouldconstitutea
continuousandineffectpermanentmilitarypresenceofNATOtroopsintheseforwardareas.
ItstheEconomy...
ThechallengeRussiaisfacinginthenewinternationalthreatenvironment,intheviewofofficialand
unofficialspokesmen,iscompoundedbytheunenviablestateofitseconomy.54Gonearethehigh
ratesofgrowthtypicalofthefirsttwotermsofthePutinpresidencythatmadepossiblethe
recoveryofthecountryseconomichealthaswellasitsinternationalstandingandmilitary
capabilities.TheinabilityoftheRussianeconomytocompeteintheglobalmarketplaceandits
relianceontheoldmodelofdevelopmentbasedonexportsofrawmaterialshavebeenelevatedin
thenewnationalsecuritystrategytotherankofthemainstrategicthreatsto[Russias]national
securityinthesphereoftheeconomy.55ThetasknowbeforeRussianpolicymakersistodevelop
anewmodelofeconomicgrowth,fortheoldonehasoutliveditsusefulness.Thisthemehasbeen
stressedbytopofficialsinRussia,includingKremlinChiefofStaffSergeiIvanov,who,withcandor
rareforaseniorKremlinofficial,admittedthatthecountryseconomicwoeswereduelargelyto
failuretoreformduringthefatyears.56SecurityCouncilSecretaryNikolaiPatrushev,too,has
stressedtheneedtojump-starttheRussianeconomyasamatterofnationalsecurity.57
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOs
reinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandhave
brokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythe
allies.
Russianforeignpolicyandnationalsecurityexpertsfromresearchinstitutesandacademiahave
echoedthesamesenseofalarmaboutnewchallengesfacingRussiaasfoundinofficialgovernment
statementsanddocuments.Theyhavestressedtheincreasinglychaotic,seeminglyall-against-all
natureoftheinternationalsystemandtheweakeningofthemaincentersofglobalpower,including
theUnitedStatesandEurope.58However,thatishardlyacauseforcelebration,forRussiais
findingitselfwithoutreliablepartnersinthissituation(therelationshipwithChinaistreatedwith
cautioninthiscontexttimewilltellhowitturnsout).59AsaresultoftheUkrainecrisisandthe
breakwiththeWest,Russiahasbeenleft,asCarnegiesDmitriTreninputit,aloneagainstall.60
Furthermore,Russiananalystshavearguedthatbytheendof2015,Russiawasinanall-
encompassing,systemiccrisis.61Thebiggestblowwasdealtbythecollapseinoilpricesandthe
endoftheglobalcommoditiesboom.MakingmattersworsewasacombinationofshrinkingGDP,
chroniclackofinvestment,currencydevaluation,lossofaccesstoWesterncapitalmarkets,and
highinflation.Thepoliticalenvironmentwasnobetter,duetotheescalationofmilitaryactivities
abroad,theintensifyingcrackdownontheopposition,andthemurderofoppositionpoliticianBoris
Nemtsov.
Takentogether,thesewereallsignsoffundamentalproblemsforapoliticalleadershipthatwas
steadfastlyresistingcomprehensivereforms.Stagnationandthefailuretocarryoutfar-reaching
economic,political,andtechnologicalmodernizationcouldhavemajorsecurityimplications.
Withoutreforms,KaraganovwarnedatthegatheringoftheestablishmentCouncilonForeignand
DefensePolicy,defeatawaits[Russia]inthefuturepolitical,economic,andmilitary-strategic
competitionofthetwenty-firstcentury.62HermanGref,theheadofthemajoritystate-owned
biggestRussianbankSberbank,echoedthesewordsinearly2016,when,speakingatapublic
gatheringofeconomistsandseniorgovernmentofficials,hedescribedRussiaasalosercountry.63
NoLightattheEnd
TheseandothersimilarlygloomyassessmentsthathavepermeatedtheentirespectrumofRussian
politicalopinion,fromofficialgovernmentdocumentsandestablishmentfigurestoscholarsat
researchinstitutionstooppositionfigures,pointtoaprofoundsenseofinsecurityinRussias
establishmentcircles.64GoneistheconfidenceofthefirsttwopresidentialtermsofVladimirPutin.
TheearlybravuraresponsetoWesternsanctionsanddeclarationsthatRussianindustrycanmore
thanmakeupforthelossofimportedgoodsandgrowthankstoimportsubstitutionandthe
cheaperRussianrublehavebeenderidedasdelusional.65Someofthemostalarmistcommentators
gosofarastoclaimthattheRussianeconomyisbackslidingintothecategoryofindustrialand
evenpreindustrialeconomies,rapidlyfallingbehindtothepointwhereonedayitcouldceasetobe
anindependentactorintheinternationalarena.66AsasignoftheprevailinggloomamongRussian
economicanalysts,includingseniorgovernmentofficials,theendofthecurrenteconomiccrisis,
whichsomebelieveRussiaisalreadyapproaching,maynotleadtogrowthinstead,inthewordsof
thefirstdeputychairoftheCentralBankofRussia,XeniaYudayeva,itwillmarkthebeginningof
eternalorlong-termstagnation.67
ThisbriefoverviewofthenarrativeinofficialRussianoutletsandsocietaldiscoursepointstoalack
ofconfidenceonthepartofRussianelitesintheirleadership,intheirownabilities,andinthe
countrysfuture.Thetimesoftrouble,whichmanyifnotmostRussiansoncethoughtwereleft
behindinthe1990s,appeartobeanythingbutsafelybehindthem.Russianassessmentsofthe
presentsituationinandaroundRussiacanbesummarizedinafewshortsentences:
TheRussianeconomyhasoutliveditsmodelofdevelopmentandcanatbeststagnateand
stayfirmlylodgedinthemiddle-incometrapthepoliticalsystemisnotabletoaddressthe
tensionsthatarebuildingwithinsociety.
Theleadershiphasyettoofferacrediblestrategyforleadingthecountryoutofitscrisis.
Theinternationalenvironmentischaoticandhostile.
Russiahasnoreliablepartnersandisfacingavastlysuperioradversarywhoseeconomyis
muchbiggerandbetterperformingthanRussiasandwhosemilitaryandtechnological
capabilitiesaretheenvyandthetargetofRussiasownmilitaryreformanddefense
modernizationplans.
MilitaryInferiorityVis--VistheWest
NotwithstandingtheimpressiverevivalofRussianmilitarycapabilitiesandthebattlefieldvictoriesin
Ukraine,RussianassessmentsoftheRussianmilitaryhavebeenpermeatedbyadeepsenseof
inferiorityvis--visNATO.AnauthoritativeassessmentofferedbyaleadingRussianmilitaryanalyst
intheaftermathoftheactivephaseoftheconflictineasternUkrainedescribedthemilitary
confrontationbetweenRussiaandUkraineasabattlebetweentwoobsoletemilitaries,oneof
which(Russias)wasbettertrained,equipped,andled.68
Ahypotheticalsimilarconflict,theanalysiscontinued,withparticipationbyvolunteersfromNATO
countrieswouldfollowaverydifferentscenario.TheRussianmilitarywouldfaceafarsuperior
enemy,onethatisbetterequipped,bettertrained,betterled,andbettersustained.Fromthesizeof
NATOsgroundforcetosmartweaponsinitsarsenaltoitselectronicwarfarecapabilities,the
Russianmilitarywouldbeoutnumbered,outgunned,outdone.Russiasonlyrecourseinsuch
circumstances,theanalysisconcludes,istothreatentheadversarywithtacticalnuclearweapons.
Thecountry,thearmy,andthenavyarenotyetreadyforalarge-scaleconventional-onlywar.69
ThissenseofvulnerabilitypermeatesRussianmilitarythinkingaboutfutureconflictsandthreat
assessmentsastheypertaintoeverysphereofmilitaryactivityconventional,nuclear,cyberwar,
andinformationwarfare.Noneofthisisnewandreflectslong-standingRussianandearlierSoviet
concernsaboutthecountrysinferiormilitarycapabilitieswhenstackedagainstNATOs.
NuclearWeaponsLastResort.AndFirst?
Inrecentyears,noRussianstatementaboutsecuritypolicyhasgeneratedmorealarmintheWest
thanhigh-levelpronouncementsaboutRussiannuclearmodernizationandthereadinesstouse
nuclearweaponsintheeventofaconflictinEurope.70Widelyinterpretedinpubliccommentaryin
theWestasevidenceofRussianaggressivenessandmilitaristicambitions,thesestatementshave
beenechoedindomesticRussiandiscussionsabouttheroleofnuclearweaponsinafuturewar.71
ThatwarwouldbefoughtagainsttheWest.Russia,writesSergeyBrezkun,professorofthe
AcademyofMilitarySciences,needstodevelopitsownde-escalationladderinordertolimita
futureregionalconflictatanearlystageandpreventitfromblowingupintoalarge-scalewar.72
Russianleaders,helaments,havenotadequatelyaddressedtheproblemofregionaldeterrence,
whichisbecomingallthemoreurgentbecauseofwhathecharacterizedastheweakeningofthe
political-militarypositionsoftheRussianFederation,proliferationontheperipheryofRussiaof
hostileregimesmanipulatedbytheWest,andthedeclineofRussiasconventionalcapabilities.In
thesecircumstances,theideaofmassivenuclearretaliationinresponsetoaregionalcrisisis
irrationalandimpractical.Russianeedsoptionsforde-escalatingthecrisisinitsbeginningphase
withthehelpoflimitednuclearstrikesagainstkeyassetsoftheenemy,butwithoutcatastrophic
consequences,aswellasnuclearweaponsspecificallydesignedforthispurpose.Suchlimited
nuclearstrikes,Brezkunargues,willhaveasoberingeffectontheenemy,whichwillthenceaseand
desist.
Intheworstpossiblecase,whichtoRussianplanners
isnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOs
conventional,nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilities
couldprovedevastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenal
anddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatorystrike.
Russianmilitarystrategistslackofconfidenceintheirconventionalcapabilitiesisalong-standing
phenomenonthatpredateseventhebreakupoftheSovietUnionandtheimplosionoftheRussian
economyanditsdefense-industrialsector.Oneoftheearliestvoicestosoundalarmaboutthe
Westsemergingsuperiorconventionalcapabilitiesinthe1970sand1980swasMarshalNikolay
Ogarkov,thechiefoftheGeneralStaff.73Thislackofconfidencemayappearsurprisinginthe
aftermathofRussianmilitaryreform,inthemidstofaten-yeardefensemodernizationprogram,
increaseddefensespending,andtheRussianarmysstringofsuccessfuloperations.Still,U.S.and
otherNATOcountriesconventionalcapabilitiescontinuetoimpressRussianmilitaryobserversand
feedtheirinsecuritywithrespecttotheirown.
Butthisdeep-seatedfeelingofinsecuritycomparedwithNATOapparentlygoesbeyondthe
conventionalsphereandappliestoRussiasstrategicandtacticalnuclearcapabilitiesaswell.Inthe
worstpossiblecase,whichtoRussianplannersisnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOs
conventional,nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilitiescouldprovedevastatingtoRussiasnuclear
arsenalanddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatorystrike.Facedwiththishighlyimprobable
prospect,Russianmilitaryplannershavetoconsiderfirst-useoptionsasade-escalatorymeasure
thatwillpersuadetheenemyofthefutilityofitsactions.Otherwise,ifnuclearweaponsarenotused
earlyinaconflictforthepurposeofendingit,Russiamaynotbeabletousethematallandbe
defeated.
ThesamelackofconfidenceinRussianretaliatorycapabilitiesisapparentinRussiandiscussions
abouttheneedforadoomsdaymachinelikeschemetoensureamassiveretaliatorystrikeinthe
eventofadevastatingattackonRussiadiscussionsreminiscentofStanleyKubricksDr.
Strangelovecharacter.74Inanapparentlydeliberateleak,Russianmediarevealedtheexistenceofa
high-yieldunmannednucleartorpedothatcouldbelaunchedasaretaliatoryweaponagainsta
majorU.S.coastalurbancenterandwouldresultinmassivehumanlossandeconomic
devastation.75AnotherproposalcalledforRussiatousemassivenuclearchargestotrigger
catastrophictsunamis,volcaniceruptions,orearthquakesthatwouldcausedevastationoflarge
areasoftheUnitedStatesalongtheWestcoast.76
RussianmilitaryplannersconcernsaboutthethreatofU.S.missiledefensestotheirretaliatory
capabilitieslongpredatethedecisionsbytheadministrationsofObamaandhispredecessoras
U.S.president,GeorgeW.Bush,todeploymissiledefensesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.
SomeanalystshavegonesofarastosaythatformerpresidentRonaldReagansStrategicDefense
Initiative(commonlycalledStarWars)inthe1980swasresponsibleforconvincingtheSoviet
PolitburothattheUnitedStatesenjoyedvastmilitary-technologicalsuperiority.Notonlycouldthe
UnitedStateslaunchasurpriseattackontheSovietUnion,theseanalystsconcluded,butitcould
alsoacquirethemeansofdenyingtheSovietUnionthecapabilityofdeliveringaretaliatorystrike.77
Thearmsrace,inotherwords,couldnotbewon,andthatinturnledtotheendoftheColdWar.78
RussianconcernsaboutU.S.missiledefensecapabilitiesthusappeartohavedeeproots.They
havebeenrestatedwithsurprisingcandorbyRussianofficials.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairs
SpecialEnvoyGrigoryBerdennikov,replyingtoaquestioninFebruary2015aboutfuturearms
control,said,
Onehastounderstandthatnuclearweaponsarenotsomethingthatstandsalone,theyare
partofthestrategicbalance.Tomoveaheadwithnuclearweaponsreductions,itis
necessarytotakeintoaccountotherfactorsfirstofall,thefactoroftheglobalmissile
defensesystem,whichtheAmericans,despiteall[our]arguments,stubbornlydonotwantto
discusswithus....
Theentiresystemofmutualrelationsinthenuclearsphereisbasedondeterrence.Inother
words,youhavetohavethecapability,havingsurvivedthefirststrike,toretaliate,andin
suchawaythattheretaliatorystrikeissoterriblethatnobodywoulddaretolaunchthefirst
one.Ifaneffectivemissiledefensesystemappears,thensomeonemayhavetheillusionthat
mostoftheweaponsoftheenemycanbedestroyedinthefirststrikeandtherestcanbe
moreorlessintercepted.Thesmalleryourarsenal,theeasieritistointerceptwhatsleft
afterthefirststrike.Andwearebeingtold[bytheAmericans],Wellcontinuetodevelop
thesedefensivesystems,butletusreducefurthertheoffensivesystems.Forwhat?Tohave
afirmguaranteethatthesecondstrikewillbeintercepted,tohavethefreedomtolaunchthe
firststrike?Isthatwhywearedoingallthis?79
Russianconcernsandcandorarenotlimitedtothenuclearsphere.Continuinghispointaboutthe
fallacyoftreatingnuclearweaponsasastand-alonecapability,Berdennikovsaid,
Wearepreparedforadialogueaboutfurthernucleardisarmamentsteps.Atthesametime,
weareconvincedthattheyareimpossiblewithoutsolvingsuchproblemsastheunlimited
growthofglobalU.S.missiledefenses,theprojectofusingstrategicweaponswith
conventionalwarheadswithintheconceptofglobalstrike,...therefusaloftheUnited
Statestopledgenottodeployweaponsinspace,[and]thegrowthofqualitativeand
quantitativeconventionalimbalances.80
ThisstatementandothersbyseniorRussianofficialsandprominentanalystsunderscorethevital
functionnuclearweaponscontinuetoperforminthedefenseoftheRussianstate.81Athreatto
thoseweaponsisathreattothesurvivalofanindependentandsovereignRussianstate.
NewThreats
TheexpandingrangeofU.S.strategiccapabilitiesnuclear,high-precisionandlong-range
conventional,andmissiledefensehasbeenamajorpreoccupationofRussianmilitaryanalysts.82
Russianconcernaboutthesecapabilitiesisreflectedincandidstatementsaboutthethreatthey
pose,aswellasreassurancesthatRussianstrategicsystemsarerobust,reliable,andimperviousto
U.S.offensiveordefensivearsenals.83
Theconversationaboutthechangingnatureofwarfare,therolesofnuclearandnon-nuclear
weapons,anddeterrencehasbeenunderwayamongRussianexpertsandmilitaryofficialsfor
decades,beginningwiththewritingsofOgarkov.Thisconversationreflectsthedeepconviction
amongRussiananalystsandplannersthatRussiahasfallenfarbehindtheUnitedStatesinthe
developmentofhigh-precisionconventionalweaponryandnon-nucleardeterrentcapabilities.84It
alsoreflectstheirviewthatgradually,theperformancecharacteristicsofnon-nuclear,high-precision
weaponsareimprovingsomuchthattheycouldbegintotakeonthefunctionsthatuntilnowhave
beenassignedexclusivelytonuclearweapons.85Asaresult,thetaskfacingtheRussianmilitaryof
deterringsuperioradversariesequippedwithsuchsystemsisincreasinglychallenging.86
Despitebravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclear
shieldisinvincibleandcapableofreliablydefending
againstanddeterringanyenemy,Russiandefense
expertsappeartoharbordoubts.
TheranksofRussianmilitaryanalystsincludeanumberofskepticswhodoubtnotsomuchthe
relativestateofaffairsinthedevelopmentofU.S.andRussianarsenalsasthepropositionthat
conventionalhigh-precisionsystemswillbeabletotakeovermissionsassignedtonuclear
systems.87TheseskepticsbelievethattheprincipalthreattoRussiasnucleardeterrentand
retaliatorycapabilitiesisposedbyU.S.nuclearsystemsandthatpriorityshouldbegivento
programsintendedtocounterthosesystems.However,eventheseskepticsconcludethatalthough
non-nuclear,precision-guidedweaponscannotsupplantnuclearweapons,theycanaffectthe
strategicbalanceinsignificantways.88
Tomeetthischallenge,Russiandefenseexpertscontinuetoemphasizenuclearweapons.Although
muchhasbeenmadeoftheseriesofRussianconventionalshipbornecruisemissilestrikesfromthe
CaspianSeaagainsttargetsinSyria,thesemuch-toutedcapabilitiesintheeyesofRussianexperts
areapparentlynotyetsufficienttodeterNATOthreatstoRussiainEurope.89
InSeptember2014,DmitryRogozin,thedeputyprimeministerinchargeofdefenseindustries,
pledgedtomodernizetheentireRussianstrategicnuclearforcesby2020,notmerely70percentas
previouslyplanned.90AccordingtoShoigu,56percentofRussiannuclearweaponsarenew.91The
chiefoftheGeneralStaff,GeneralValeryGerasimov,echoedRogozinsvowandreferredto
prioritydevelopmentofstrategicnuclearforcesastheMinistryofDefensesmostimportanttask.92
However,despitetheseacceleratedprogramsandbravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclear
shieldisinvincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterringanyenemy,Russian
defenseexpertsappeartoharbordoubtsthatthesemeasuresaresufficient.93Thus,somehave
suggestedthatevendeployingIskandershort-rangeballisticmissiles,capableofcarryingnuclear
warheads,toCrimeaandKaliningradmayproveinsufficienttodeterpotentialenemies.94Instead,
toaccomplishthatgoal,RussiamayhavetowithdrawfromtheIntermediate-RangeNuclear
ForcesTreatyandreintroducethatclassofweaponsintoitsarsenal.95Russiancommentators
maintainthatsuchastepisbeingcontemplatedbecauseofthecombinedthreatofNATOmissile
defenseinEuropeandtheacquisitionofintermediate-rangemissilesbyPakistan,India,andIran.96
Nuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementof
Russiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalong
time.
OfficialstatementsofferassurancesthatRussiawillusenuclearweaponsonlyintwocircumstances:
inretaliationforastrikeagainstitoritsalliesusingnuclearweaponsorsomeotherformof
weaponsofmassdestructionorifRussiaisavictimofanaggressionthatusesconventional
weaponsbutthreatenstheverysurvivaloftheRussianstate.97However,Russiandefensepolicy
discussionsrevealthatseniorRussiandefenseplannersalsocontemplateanothercontingency:
launchingpreventivenuclearstrikes,whetherofalimitednatureintendedtode-escalateaconflict
oronalargerscale.98ThiscouldamounttoyetanothertacitadmissionofRussiandefense
plannerslackofconfidenceintheirsecond-strikecapability.Iftheydontusetheirnuclear
weapons,inotherwords,theylosethem.
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussiandefensepolicyandwillremainsofor
alongtime.Russiandefenseexpertsandofficialsreadilyadmitthattheirindustrialandtechnological
inferioritywillpreventthemfrommatchingU.S.advancedmilitarytechnologiesintheforeseeable
future.99Thisundoubtedlyfeedstheiralreadydeeplyheldfeelingofinsecurityandinferiorityvis--
vistheWest,whichisonlyreinforcedbytheproliferationofnewtechnologiesandcapabilitiesfor
differentformsofwarfare.
CyberwartheNewUltimateWeapon
AsifU.S.nuclear,high-precisionconventional,andmissiledefensetechnologieshavenotbeen
enoughtofuelanxietiesofRussiandefenseplanners,theadventofcyberwarfarehasaddedtotheir
senseofinsecurity.ThisisnottosaythatRussiahasnotsustaineditsownvastcyberwarfareeffort
orinvestedpriortotheadventofcybertechnologyinwhatRussiandefenseexpertscallradio-
electronicwarfareorinformationwarfare.Ithas.However,theinformationrevolutionand
universalcomputerizationofeverysphereofstateandsocietalactivityhascreatedamultitudeof
newthreats.
Theworldisenteringanewphaseofwarfare,accordingtoRussiandefenseexperts,whoassert
thatcyberwarfareisnolongerawarofthefuture.100Itistakingplacenowanew,fifthdomain,
alongwithland,air,sea,andspace,inwhichwarcanandwillbewaged.Cyberwarfaretakes
precedenceoverkineticwarfareandisbeingundertakenbystatescontinuously.Theboundary
betweenwarandpeaceisbeinggraduallyerased.CyberwarfarecanthreatenRussiainawide
varietyofways,fromparalyzinganddestroyingitsinfrastructuretodisablingitscomputernetworks
orinsertingdeliberatelyfalseinformationanddisseminatingittothepopulation.Accordingto
Russianexperts,thedestructivepotentialofcyberweaponsiscomparabletothatofnuclear
weapons.101Cyberweaponscancreatepanic,plungesocietiesintochaos,underminelegitimate
governments,suppressanationswilltoresistaggression,andparalyzeitsarmedforces.Theycan
winwarsbeforeeventhefirstshotisfired.102Understandingtheconsequencesofthisformof
warfareisofutmostimportancefortheRussianmilitary,whichhasalreadybegunthiseffort.103
InformationwarfarehaslongbeenamajorareaofinterestandconcernforRussiannational
securityofficials.TheRussianSecurityCounciladoptedtheDoctrineofInformationSecurityof
RussianFederationasearlyas2000andsincethenhasdevelopedawholelibraryofsupporting
documentstoguideRussianpolicyinthissphere.104Sincethen,Russianconcernsaboutthreats
posedbyoffensiveoperationsofcyberwarandinformationwarhaveincreasedmanifold,andthe
issuehasbeenactivelydiscussedamongdefenseandsecurityexperts.105The2016National
SecurityStrategystatesthatintheinterestofprotectingstateandpublicsecurity,thegovernment
willundertakethenecessarystepstoimprovetheprotectionofcitizensandsocietyfromtheeffects
ofdestructiveinformationpropagatedbyextremistsandterroristorganizations,foreignintelligence
services,andpropagandaoutlets.106
ThesensitivityandurgencyofthepotentialthreattoRussiafromthecyberdomainwasunderscored
in2014whenPutindeclaredGoogleaspecialprojectoftheU.S.CentralIntelligenceAgency
andurgedRussianstoavoidusingit.TheRussianleaderscommentsaboutU.S.controlofthe
Internet,combinedwiththeRussiangovernmentslong-termpursuittoestablishsovereigncontrol
overRussiasportionoftheInternet,reflecttheinsecuritynotonlyoftheelitesbutalsoofthe
generalpublicaboutthecountrysvulnerabilitytocyberattacksandinformationattacksfrom
adversaries,bothrealandimagined.107ThisinsecuritygoessofarastomotivatetheRussian
governmenttoseekwaystocontroltheRussianInternetandevenconsiderwaystoineffectunplug
RussiafromtheInternetinanemergency.108SovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternet
hasbeenalong-standinggoaloftheRussiangovernmentspositionininternationalforumsdealing
withInternetgovernanceagoalthathasservedasanelementofRussian-Chinesepartnershipin
oppositiontoU.S.andotherWesternnationspursuitofthefreeflowofinformationwithout
borders.109Inthefuture,theRussiangovernmentspursuitofcapabilitiestoregulateand,if
necessary,switchofftheInternetisexpectedtointensifyasitconsidersafreeandunimpeded
Internetasoneofitsbiggestthreats.110
IntheviewofRussiannationalsecurityexperts,thefuturehasarrived.TheeffectonRussiahas
beentoaggravateitssenseofencirclement,compounditsvulnerabilities,andmultiplythreatstoit.
WarbyOtherMeans
ThedeteriorationofthisperceivedthreatenvironmentintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisishas
spawnedadiscussionamongRussiannationalsecurityexpertsaboutvariousformsofnonkinetic,
nonstopwarfarewagedbytheWestagainstRussiaeveninpeacetime.Inadditiontoinformation
warandcyberwarfare,theyhavefocusedonWesterneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaasaform
ofcontinuous,undeclaredwarfare.
TheKremlinsresponsetosanctionscanbesummedupasamovetowardeconomicnationalism
andisolationism.WhenVisaandMasterCardcutoffservicestotwoRussianbanksthatwere
sanctionedbytheUnitedStates,themovehighlightedfortheRussiangovernmenttheeconomys
heavyrelianceonWesternpaymentsystemsanditsresultingvulnerabilitytofurtherWestern
sanctions.Inresponse,theCentralBankofRussiahasannouncedaplantocreateanational
paymentsystemtoinsulateRussiafromWesternpressureintheeventofanewroundof
sanctions.111ThemorerecentthreattocutoffRussianaccesstoSWIFT(SocietyforWorldwide
InterbankFinancialTelecommunication)hasledtheRussiangovernmenttoconsideroptionsfor
settingupanalternativeinpartnershipwithChina.112
Thedefense-industrialsectorhasbeendirectedtodiminishandeventuallyeliminateitsrelianceon
foreignsuppliers.113Thedesiretoenddependenceonforeignsuppliersisnotlimitedtothedefense
sector,forinMay2016,Putintaskedthecabinetwithstimulatingdomesticmanufacturingand
developingsubstitutesforforeignimportsthroughouttheeconomy.Inafurthermovetoinsulatethe
economyfromforeigninfluence,Putinorderedthegovernmenttodevelopandimplementstepsfor
deoffshorizationofmajorindustrialenterprisesbydevelopingtax,accounting,andcriminal
legislationaimedatdiscouragingcompaniesfromlocatingfacilitiesoffshore.114
Theideathatsanctionsrepresentaformofwarfareoraninstrumentofcoercionishardlynewor
uniquetoRussia.Ithasalonghistory,andrecordeddiplomacyandwarfarearerepletewith
examplesofitdatingallthewaytoancientGreece.115Nonetheless,Westernsanctionsandthe
economicslumpthathasfollowedtheirimpositionalthoughcausednotonlybythem
undoubtedlyhaveunderscoredRussiasvulnerabilitytooutsideforcesandthehostileenvironment
aroundit.
HybridWarfareOldWine,OldSkins
ThetakeoverofCrimeabytheRussianmilitaryand,subsequently,theoperationsineastern
UkrainehavefocusedtheattentionofforeignandRussianobserversonso-calledhybridwarfare.
Thisterm,whichreferstoawiderangeofkineticandnonkineticactivitiesbymilitarypersonneland
civilians,hasbeenthesubjectofextensivediscussionsinRussiaasbothathreattoRussiansecurity
andRussiasresponsetothreatstoitposedbyhostilepowers.
WesternofficialsandanalystshavefocusedonhybridwarfareprimarilyasaresultofRussias
undeclaredwarinUkraine,whichentailsamixofspecialforces,civilians,informationoperations,
cyberattacks,and,onsomeoccasions,uniformedmilitarypersonnel.116Presumably,acombination
ofthesecapabilitiesinacrisisenvironmentcanbeusedtoachievesurpriseandconfusethe
adversaryandtoaccomplishpoliticalandmilitaryobjectiveswithoutresortingtolarge-scalekinetic
warfareandanoutrightwardeclaration,whichinturncanpresentanadversarywithafaitaccompli
andavoidunnecessarycasualtiesandescalationofhostilitiesforRussia.Countriesthatshare
borderswithRussia,especiallytheBalticstates,someofwhichhavelargeRussianpopulations,are
especiallyvulnerabletothistypeofwarfare,Westernofficialshavewarned.117
Russianrelianceonsuchformsofwarfarehastheadditionalimportantbenefitofambiguity.Inthe
absenceofanoutrightmilitaryinterventionbyRussiainoneormoreBalticstates,NATOwould
lackclearevidenceofRussianaggression,thusrunningtheriskofconfusionandcontroversy
amongtheallieswithrespecttomilitaryactionindefenseoftheBalticstatesinaccordancewiththe
alliancesArticle5guarantees.
RussiandefenseexpertsalsochargethattheWestisconductinghybridwarfareagainstRussia
throughacombinationofmilitaryandothermeans,includingsanctionsandinformationwarfare.118
TheirinterpretationofhybridwarfareunderscoresthedestabilizingfunctionoftheWests
democracypromotionactivitiesspecificallythecolorrevolutionsinthecountriessurrounding
Russia.InRussiasview,thoseactivities,throughmeasureswellshortofwar,createazoneof
instabilityaroundRussia,encircleitwithWesternagentsofinfluence,andcreateopportunitiesfor
Westernintervention.119Moreover,instabilitythreatensnotonlyRussiasneighborsbutalsoRussia
itself,becausesupportforgroupsinsideRussiaopposedtotheRussiangovernmentcanalsobe
interpretedasanelementofhybridwarfare.120Large-scalewarfarehasbecomedangerous,even
suicidal,forthepartiesinvolved,duetothedestructionassociatedwithitwithorwithoutnuclear
weapons.Andthatinturnnecessitatesresortingtootherformsofwarfarethatcarrysmallerrisksof
catastrophicconsequences.
SomeRussiandefenseanalystshavearguedthatdespitethepublicitysurroundingthetermhybrid
warfaresincethestartoftheconflictinUkraine,theconceptisneithernewnorparticularly
transformative.121Forexample,theynote,informationoperationshavelongbeenacriticalelement
ofstatesactivitiesintendedtomisleadanadversaryanddemoralizeitspopulationandcombatants.
Deploymentofmilitarypersonnelwithoutnationalinsigniaisalong-standingpracticeinwarfare,as
istheuseofproxiesandregularforcesundertheguiseofvolunteers.Theargumentaboutthe
noveltyofhybridwarfarethusdoesnotstanduptoscrutinyandiscontradictedbyalongandrich
historicalrecordofvariousconflicts.122
TheRussiangovernmentsapproachtodealingwithUkraine-relatedsanctionsimposedbythe
UnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionisindicativeofwhatRussianbehaviorcanbeexpectedto
belikeinfuturecrises.ByfocusingonsomeoftheweakerandpoorerEUandNATOmembers
GreeceorBulgaria,forinstanceRussianofficialshaveapparentlysoughttoundermineboth
organizationsconsensusonsanctionsagainstRussia.123Similarly,thereportedfinancialties
betweenFrancesfar-rightNationalFrontandaMoscow-basedbankarelikelyintendedtosecure
aRussianfootholdinFrenchdomesticpoliticsandtoseektoinfluenceFrenchpolicy.124Political
partiesandindividualpoliticiansandofficialsintheCzechRepublic,Germany,andLatviahaveall
beentargetedbytheRussiangovernment.125
Inacrisissituation,theuseofdisinformation,awiderangeofinformationoperations,diplomatic
maneuvering,diversionarytroopmovements,activationofsleeperagentsandfriendlylocals,
infiltrationofspecialforces,reconnaissance,andvariousothermilitary,paramilitary,andcivilian
personnelareallfairgame.Corruption,blackmail,relianceoncriminalnetworks,andovert
economicassistanceareallfairgameasmeansofpreparingthebattlefieldorachievingpolitical
objectivesbeforethefirstshotisfired.
ABleakOutlook
TheprofoundsenseofinsecuritythatpermeatesRussiandiscussionsaboutthecountryspositionin
EuropeandEurasiaiswelljustified.TherearemanyuncertaintiesinRussiasfuture,aswellasin
thoseofitsneighbors,potentialpartners,allies,andadversaries.However,thoseuncertainties
disappearwhenitcomestothisprediction:theabilitiesofRussianleaders,militaryplanners,and
diplomatswillbethoroughlytestedintheyearsanddecadestocomeasafunctionofthedifficult
geopoliticalenvironmentandmultiplechallengesthecountryisfacingathome.
PredictingthetrajectoryofRussiaisaninherentlydifficulttask.Fewpredictedthebreakupofthe
SovietUnionbeforeitunraveledrapidly.Fewpredictedthatthecountrywoulddissolverelatively
peacefully.Fewpredictedtheeconomiccalamitythatfollowed,therecoveryofRussiaadecade
later,theeconomicboomthatfollowed,theprotestsof2012,thewarwithUkraine,andthe
virulentlyanti-WesternturninRussiandomesticandforeignpolicies.Allofthesemajorshifts
occurredintheshorthistoricallyspeakingspanoftwenty-fiveyears.
Acomparableseriesofeventsinthenextdecadeordecadeandahalfcouldtheoreticallyresultin
thebreakupofRussiaintoaseriesofsmallerstates,someofthemwithnuclearweaponsontheir
territoriesanotherwarintheSouthCaucasusanewrapprochementwiththeWestnecessitatedby
theneedformodernization,economicaid,andhelpconsolidatingnuclearweaponsinwhatsleftof
Russiaproper.AndallofthesecouldbefollowedbytheriseofanationalistRussianregimebenton
gatheringthelostempireandreconstitutingthegreatRussianstate,triggeringyetanotherconflict
withbothimmediateneighborsandtheWest.
Insum,noforecastofRussiasfuturecanbereducedtoastraightline.Russiahastoexplore
multiplepossibilities.Ithastoconsiderpossibilitiesthatareliterallystrangerthanfiction.Andthenit
hastocautionthereadertotakeallwithabiggrainofsalt.
AnEstablishedPoliticalSystem
ConsideringthemanychangesinRussiainthepastquartercentury,itiseasytooverlookthefact
thateventhoughthecountryunderwentamajorpoliticalshockwhentheSovietUnionbrokeup,its
politicalsystemisquitewellestablished.DespitesignificantdifferencesbetweentheYeltsinera,the
Putinpresidency,andtheMedvedevinterregnum,thepoliticalsystemchangedlittle.Described
earlyinitsdevelopmentbylongtimeRussiaexpertThomasGraham,ithasremainedessentiallyan
oligarchywithallthetrappingsofamoderndemocracy,butwithoutinternalideologicaldifferences
andmotivatedonlybycompetitionforpropertyamongoligarchicgroupsorclans.126Atthecenter
ofthisarrangementstandsapowerfulpresidentwhosemissionistomanagecompetitionamong
clansandthusmaintaindomesticstability.
EstablishedearlyduringtheYeltsinpresidency,thissystemhassurvivedlargelyintact.Someclans
andoligarchshavedeparted,andothershavereplacedthem.Thepowerofthepresidencyhas
increasedordecreaseddependingonthepersonalityoftheincumbent.Butthroughitall,thesystem
initsessencehasremainedintact.Keyfeaturesofthissystemapowerfulexecutive,theclose
relationshipbetweenpowerandproperty,theirconcentrationinthehandsofarelativelysmallelite,
thelackofarepresentativegovernment,andtheprevalenceoftherulingideologypredatethe
currentRussianregimeandhavetheirrootsintheSovietandimperialRussianperiods.Littleonthe
countryspoliticallandscapesuggeststhatthesystemislikelytoundergosignificantchangesinthe
foreseeablefuture.Itmayundergosomechangesonthemargins,butthereisnothinginRussian
domesticpoliticstoindicatethatamorerepresentativeformofgovernmentislikelytoemergeinthe
nexttentofifteenyears.Yet,changemayberequiredforthecountrytoovercomethemany
obstaclesfacingit.
StagnationLooms
In2016,wellintoPutinsthirdpresidentialterm,Russiafindsitselfconfrontedbyincreasinglybleak
prospects.AsnotedbymanyRussianobserversquotedinthispaper,theproblemisnotjustthat
thepriceofoilisloworthatthesanctionsimposedbytheEUandtheUnitedStateshavehurtthe
Russianeconomy.TheentiremodelofeconomicdevelopmentpursuedbyRussiainthepast
decadeandahalf,theobserversconclude,hasoutliveditself.
SomeRussiananalystshavenotedthesimilaritybetweenPutinsRussia,nowintheseventeenth
yearoftheRussianpresidentstenureatthehelm,andtheSovietUnionduringtheeraofLeonid
Brezhnev,wholedthecountryforeighteenyearsfrom1964to1982.127Then,too,theSoviet
Unionhadreachedadeadendandhadtoradicallychangecourseindomesticandforeignaffairs.
Russiasnextpresidentialelectionisscheduledin2018.Putin,whowillthenbesixty-fiveyearsold,
willendhisthirdpresidentialtermandwilleitherrunforyetanothersix-yeartermorstepaside
eitherasatacticalmeasureorasamovetowardretirement.ThelikelihoodofPutinsteppingaside
retiring,ratherthanasatacticalmoveappearslowatthetimeofthiswriting.128
Moreover,Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalstageshouldnotbeequatedwithimproved
prospectsforpoliticaloreconomicmodernizationinRussia.Theupperechelonofthecountrys
politicaleliteiscomposedofpeoplewhoseoutlooksandbackgroundsaresimilartoPutins.Their
prospectsforimplementingmajorchangesinthecountryspoliticalsystemoreconomyappear
equallymodestatbest
IfPutinLeaves
Nonetheless,theconsequencesofPutinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneareworthconsidering
ifonlyasanintellectualenterprise.TheRussianpresidentsretirementattheendofhiscurrentterm
wouldbefollowedbyanelectioninwhichanewleaderwouldbechosen.Thatishowtheprocess
issupposedtoworkformally,andthereislittlechancethatitwillnot.
Inreality,PutinsdeparturewouldholdthepossibilityofasignificantdestabilizationofRussian
politics.Heoccupiesauniquelypowerfulplaceinthecountryspoliticalsystem,actingasthe
centralfigureamongvariousinterestsgroupsandclans,balancingtheircompetingdemandsand
adjudicatingtheirdisputes.129NootherpoliticiancomesclosetoPutinsstandinginthatsystem.He
hasnopoliticalheirorsecond-in-command.TheprimeministercurrentlyDmitryMedvedev
stepsintemporarilyifthepresidentisincapacitatedordiesinoffice,untilanewpresidentiselected
withinninetydays.Few,ifany,politicalanalystswouldarguethatMedvedevisacrediblecandidate
forthepresidencytosucceedPutinorapowerfulfigureinRussiandomesticpolitics.
Intheabsenceofadesignatedpoliticalsuccessor,theprocessofnominatingacandidatefromthe
politicaleliteso-calledthepartyofpowerwouldbehighlycontested,almostcertainlymoreso
thantheelectionitself.Suchintra-elitestrugglestookplaceduringthe20072008period,when
Putinssecondtermwasduetoexpirebuthehadnotyetdesignatedhissuccessorormadeclear
hisownplans.Similarly,in2011,Russianeliteswereunsettledbythelackofclarityaboutthefuture
oftheMedvedev-Putintandem.
ShouldPutindepartthepoliticalscenewithoutdesignatingasuccessor,therulingelitewouldhavea
powerfulincentiveinpreservingtheexistingsystemandavoidinganinternalsplit,thusincreasingthe
likelihoodofcoalescingaroundasinglecandidate.Buttheprocessofselectingthatsinglecandidate
islikelytobecontentious,resultinginafiercecompetitionamongclansandinterestgroups.
Thenomineewouldbevirtuallycertaintowintheelection.Russiasbeleagueredpoliticalopposition
hasbeendecimatedasaresultofaseriesofsystematicmeasuresbythePutinadministrationtolimit
theabilityofoppositionpartiesandcivilsocietyatlargetoorganize,recruitmembers,raisefunds,
orinanyotherwayparticipateinthepoliticallifeofthecountry.Noseriouscontenderforthe
presidencyabletocompetewiththeonenominatedbythepartyofpowerislikelytoemergefrom
theranksoftheopposition.
However,theelectionwouldnotmarktheendofpoliticalinstabilityinRussia.Thenewleader
wouldhavetoworkhardtoconsolidatehis(mostlikelynother)powerandrestoretheequilibrium
amongclansdisruptedbyPutinsdeparture.Thiswouldalmostcertainlybeaprocessthatwould
takeyears,giventhesizeofthecountry,themultitudeofitsclansandinterestgroups,regional
interests,andthesorrystateoftheeconomythatwouldalmostcertainlyleadtofiercecompetition
amongclansforalargershareoftheshrinkingpie.
Howlikelyisthecountrysnewpresidenttointroducemajorreformsindomesticorforeignaffairs
inthatenvironment?SuchreformsnotunliketheGorbachev-eradtentewiththeWestinforeign
policyandmovementtowardderegulationandmarketcapitalismwouldundoubtedlyprove
controversialandpoliticallydifficult,fortheywouldaffectinterestsofvariousclansvestedinthe
statusquo.Anynewleaderwouldhavetotakethatintoaccount.Anewleaderwouldalsohaveto
takeintoaccountthefragilityoftheRussianeconomyandprobablybemindfulthatGorbachevs
reformsendedincatastrophethebreakupofthecountry.Withthisbaggage,anynewleader
wouldlikelyproceedwithextremecaution,ifatall.Thelikelyoutcomeofthisscenariowouldbea
continuationofPutinism,butwithoutPutin,fortheremainderofthisdecade,ifnotlonger.Change
wouldhavetowaituntillater,perhapsuntilthesuccessorssecondpresidentialterm.
Oncechangecomes,itcouldprovedestabilizing.AfutureRussianleaderlaunchingmajorreforms
inthemiddleofthethirddecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywouldhavetocontendwithamultitude
ofchallenges,including
anadversedemographicsituationinRussia
astagnanteconomy
technologicalbackwardnessofRussianindustry
highbarrierstodomesticandforeigninvestmentexcessivegovernmentregulation,weak
ruleoflaw,corruption,andpoorinfrastructureand
ahighlycompetitiveinternationalenvironment.
Thegeographicexpanseofthecountryandproximityofitsvariousregionstoothereconomicand
geopoliticalgravitationalpolesChina,Turkey,Europewillcreatepowerfulcentrifugalforces
andgreatlycomplicatethetaskofthefederalgovernmentofmanagingtheeconomyandpolitical
system.Russia,whichisorganizedasafederation,couldfacesomeofthesameseparatist
tendenciesthattheSovietUnionencounteredamongitsconstituentrepublicsinitsfinalyears.
Alternatively,thiscouldresultinasignificantdelegationofpowerandauthoritytotheregions.The
possibilityoffurtherfragmentationoftheRussianstatehastobeconsideredasoneofreal
contingenciestofaceRussiaattheendofthe2020s.
Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneattheendofthecurrenttermdoesnotguaranteethathis
successorwouldundertakesignificantreformsindomesticorforeignpolicy.However,shouldsuch
reformsbeattempted,theycouldresultinasignificantdestabilizationofRussia.
IfPutinStays
TheprospectofPutinsreelectiontoafourthpresidentialtermin2018raisesthecriticalquestionof
whetherheiscapableofchange.Putinsreturntothepresidencyin2012provedasetbackfor
Russiasreformersandadvocatesofmodernizationafteraperiodwhenprospectsforeconomic
andpoliticalmodernizationlookedrelativelybright.Since2012,theyhavedimmedconsiderably,
andintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisistheyappeartobenearlyextinguished.
Theneedforchangeinthecountryseconomicandpoliticallifecloselyrelatedtoeachotheris
widelyunderstoodandacknowledgedinRussiansociety.Itisequallywidelyunderstoodthat
significantchangecouldprovedestabilizingfortheestablishedpoliticalsystem.Asmentioned,the
experienceoftheGorbachev-erareformscontinuestoserveasapotentcautionaryreminderofthe
dangersassociatedwithradicalchange.
Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeanda
half,regardlessofPutinscourse.
Putinhasfirmlyandrepeatedlyrejectedtheideaofpoliticalmodernizationasathreattothe
countrysstability.Hisentirethirdtermcanbedescribedasantimodernization,including
suppressionofcivilsociety,isolationofRussiafromEuropeandtheUnitedStates,propagandaof
so-calledtraditionalRussianvaluesasdifferentfromEuropeanvaluesandnorms,proud
declarationsthatRussiaisnotEurope,andapushtoautarkyineconomicdevelopmentto
inoculatethecountryfromthethreatofWesternsanctions.MovesbytheKremlintoassertthe
supremacyofRussianlawsoverinternationaltreatiessignedbyRussiaanddisconnectthecountry
fromtheInternetaresymbolicoftheantimodernizationspiritthathaspermeatedRussianpolitics
andpolicymakingsincePutinsreturntothepresidency.
Putinhasraisedtheissueofeconomicmodernizationinhisspeechesrepeatedly.However,his
recordinofficesincehisaccessiontothepresidencyin2000ofconsistent,step-by-step,
deliberateconsolidationofpoliticalpowerandeconomicleversinthehandsofthestateorasmall
groupofassociatescloselytiedtothestatespeaksmuchlouderthanhiswords.Ifhewereto
becomeamodernizerlateinhispoliticalcareer,itwouldbearadicaldeparturefromeverythinghe
hasdoneuntilnow.
Increasingly,economicmodernizationinRussiarequirespoliticalmodernizationaswell,andashift
fromthesmall,Kremlin-centeredoligarchytoamoreopeneconomicsystemwithstrongerruleof
law,transparency,andadegreeofcompetitiveness.Thatwillrequirereformsthatwouldchallenge
theverypoliticalorderthatforthepastdecadeandahalfhasservedasthefoundationofRussian
domesticstabilityandPutinspersonalpowerandhasitsrootsinthesystemthatemergedsoon
afterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.Theoutlookforachangeofsuchmagnitudeisnot
encouragingfortheforeseeablefuture.
Underthepresentconstitutionalarrangement,andassumingPutinisreelectedin2018,hewill
remaininofficeuntil2024.Hewillbeseventy-onethenstillrelativelyyoungandquiteplausibly
notreadytodepartthepoliticalstage.TheprospectofPutinremainingatthehelmasfaras2030is
quitereal,justastheprospectofhischangingcourseisquiteremote.
ThisisnottosaythatRussiawillcontinueindefinitelyalongitspresentglidepath.Theabsenceof
reformsandlackofprogresstowardmodernizingthecountryspoliticalsystemandeconomyare
boundtotaketheirtollonitseconomy,itspolitics,anditsinternationalstanding.Thisisalmost
certaintotriggerdiscontinuitiespolitical,security,andeconomic.Thatsaid,anyattemptbyPutin
orhissuccessortotacklethischallengeisfraughtwithsignificantrisksofdiscontinuity.Inshort,
Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,regardlessofPutinscourse.
Theweaknessofandsevererestrictionsonoppositionpoliticalpartiesandcivicorganizations
virtuallyprecludethepossibilityofapowerfulstructuredchallengetothePutinregime.However,
therestrictionsonorganizedpoliticalactivitiescandolittletolimitspontaneousmanifestationsof
discontentandgrassrootsactionsinresponsetoadecliningstandardofliving,actionsoflocal
authorities,orintercommunal,interracial,orinterconfessionaltensions.130Thegrowthofsuch
protestactivitiescould,overtime,developintoapersistentpattern,creatingopportunitiesfor
politicalchallengestotheregime.Theregimesinabilityorunwillingnesstotackletheunderlying
economicpoliticalandeconomicproblemscouldexacerbatethechallengeandthethreattothe
countrysdomesticstability.
Inadditiontothechallengetothecountryspoliticalstability,thelonglistofproblemsfacingthe
Russiangovernmentintheconditionsofastagnanteconomyandshrinkingresourcesincludesthe
threatofyetanotherdestabilizationintheNorthCaucasus,whererelativepeaceandstabilityhave
beenmaintainedthroughmassivefederaltransfersandcutsindefensespending,socialprograms,
science,education,andotherprograms.131Combinedwithlackofinvestmenteveninthecritical
energysector,thesecutsthreatencascadinglong-termeffectsontheeconomy,furtherundermining
itsabilitytoinnovate,diversify,andgrow,allofwhichpointtothesystemiccrisis.132
ChallengesAbroad
TomakemattersworseforRussianpolicymakers,theexternalenvironmenttheyarelikelytoface
alongtheimmediateperipheryofRussiaandbeyondpromisestobeequallychallenging.The
UkrainecrisishascompoundedthechallengesRussiannationalsecurityexpertshavelongfearedin
theEuro-Atlantictheater.Atthesametime,thebreakinrelationswithEuropeandtheUnited
StateshasnotresultedinnewpartnershipsoralliancesforRussiaelsewhere.Thishasoccurredata
timeofmajornewinstabilityintheinternationalarenaingeneralandinregionsnearRussiain
particular.
ASelf-FulfillingProphecyinEurope
InEurope,RussianthreatperceptionsandconcernsaboutNATOslowlymovingitsmilitary
capabilitiestowarditsbordersarebecomingaself-fulfillingprophecyintheaftermathofthe
Ukrainecrisis.If,priortotheannexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,Russiawas
consideredbytheallianceasapossible,albeitincreasinglyunlikely,partner,thenRussianactionsin
Ukrainehaveputanendtosuchhopesforpartnershipandtransformedtherelationshipintoone
thatisopenlyadversarial.133Thealliancescommitmentnottopermanentlystationsubstantial
combatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembersinthecurrentandforeseeablesecurity
environmentdisappearedwiththeannexationofCrimea,theaggressionineasternUkraine,and
RussianthreatsagainsttheBalticstatesandotherNATOmembers.
TheUkrainecrisishasspurredNATOtoproceedwithactionspreviouslyconsideredonlyremote
andunlikelypossibilities.InresponsetowhatseniorNATOofficialsdescribeasthemost
dangerousthreattoEurope,NATOisundertakingaseriesofstepsthatincludethestationingof
U.S.andotherNATOtroopsandpre-positioningofequipment,includingheavyU.S.equipment,in
thefrontlinestatesfromtheBaltictotheBlackSeaplanningforandtrainingtodefendagainst
Russianaggressionandestablishmentofrapidresponseandbroaderresponseforces.134Andnow
Sweden,neutralfornearlytwocenturies,andFinland,neutralsince1948,arehavingactive
debatesaboutjoiningthealliance.135
Further,theUkrainecrisishaspromptedcallsfromWesternmilitaryanalyststocounterRussian
threatstoEuropewiththeverysystemsthatRussianassessmentshavelonghighlightedas
destabilizingandmostthreateningintheeventofacrisis.136Acombinationoflong-range,stealth,
andprecisiontechnologies,ifdeployedbyNATOalliesinacrisis,wouldbethefulfillmentof
Russiandefenseplannersworstexpectations.
However,asidefromthepurelymilitarythreats,moreuncertaintyandpossiblyturmoilarelikelyto
confrontRussiainitsWesternstrategicdirection.ThebiggestchallengefacingRussiaalongits
westernfrontieristheunsettledconflictwithUkraine.RussianactionsinvolvingUkrainehave
servedasasourceoflong-term,deepenmitybetweentwocountriesthatpreviouslyhad
experiencednone.Furthermore,theyhavecreatedalong-termsourceofinstabilityinlieuofthe
predictable,ifstagnant,relationshipthathadexistedbetweenRussiaandUkraineforthequarter
centuryfromthebreakupoftheSovietUniontotheannexationofCrimea.
UkraineaProblemNeighbor
Ukrainesoutlookfortheforeseeablefuturecanbestbedescribedalongtwouneasytrajectories
muddlingthroughorreturningtoRussiasorbit.Thisbleakprospectisaproductofseveral
circumstances:thelegacyofSovietrulecombinedwiththemisruleofthefirstquartercenturyof
independencethatleftUkraineacorruptoligarchythedepletedeconomybadlydamagedbythe
conflictineasternUkraineandreformsthatwereneverimplementedandthelackofinterestinthe
WesttosupportUkrainewiththesamecommitmentEuropeandtheUnitedStatesmadeto
integratetheformerWarsawPactcountriesandBalticstatesintotheWesternpolitical,economic,
andsecuritystructures.Inaddition,theconflictineasternUkraineislikelytobesettledonlyas
frozenratherthanresolved,thusleavingapermanentwoundinUkrainesdomesticpolitics,
economy,andsecurity.
Themuddling-throughscenariohasUkrainestayingonitspresentcourseofdifficult,haltingpolitical
andeconomicreformsforthedurationofPresidentPetroPoroshenkostermuntil2019.This
scenariohasUkrainemakingintermittentprogressinthefollowingareas:someimprovementinits
investmentclimategradualstructuralreformsoftheeconomy,especiallytheenergysectorand
heavyindustrydecentralizationandsomecurbingofthepowerofoligarchs.Allofthesechanges
promisetobedifficultandpoliticallychallenging,threateningtounderminethegovernments
precariousstandinginthepollsandpossiblyleadingtoearlyparliamentaryelections,further
complicatingthegovernmentstask.Thisscenarioalsoentailsimplementingadifficultsecurity-
sectorreform,reequippingthearmedforces,andadaptingtoahostofEU-mandatedrequirements
thatmakeupUkrainesAssociationAgreementandfree-tradeagreementwiththeEU.Thisisa
highlyambitiousagendathatatbestcanbeonlypartlyfulfilled,evenbythemostambitious
reformersandwiththehelpofgenerousaid,whichisunlikelytomaterialize.Allthewhile,Ukraine
wouldbeunderseverepressurefromRussia.
Thealternativescenarioentailsastalledreformeffort,growingpopulardiscontent,andgridlockin
theparliament.Together,thesewouldhaveaparalyzingeffectontheabilityofthegovernmentto
function.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)agreementwouldthenbejeopardized,leadingto
ahaltinIMFassistancetoUkraine.OtherdonorassistanceconditionedoncompliancewithIMF
requirementswouldalsobeimperiled.Thisturnofeventswouldprecipitateanothercrisis,afailure
oftherulingcoalitionandearlyparliamentaryandpossiblypresidentialelectionsrestoringtopower
alessreform-mindedleadershipandreturningUkrainetothedysfunctionaloligarch-dominated
stateithadbeeninpriortotheEuromaidanantigovernmentuprisingin20132014.Thisscenario
alsoentailsthenewgovernmentsgradualaccommodationwithRussiainexchangeforfinancial
subsidiesintheformoffavorabletermsforgastradeorloans.TheaccommodationwithRussia
wouldprovecontroversialwithmanyinUkraine,leadingtoadividedpolityandpermanentpolitical
tensions,polarization,andgovernmentdysfunction.
Ineitherscenario,fortheforeseeablefuture,Ukraineislikelytoremainafragilestatestruggling
withdomesticreformsandcaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.NeitherRussianor
EuropeandtheUnitedStatesislikelytocountonUkraineasareliablepartner.ForbothRussia
andtheWest,Ukrainepromisestobeasourceofeconomicandsecuritychallengesaswellasa
majorsubjectoflong-termtensionsanddiscordintheirbilateralrelations.
BelarusanUnreliableAlly
Similarlycaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWestisUkrainesnorthernneighbor
Belarus.Ruledbyawilyauthoritarianleader,AleksandrLukashenko,formorethantwodecades,
thecountryhassurvivedinlargemeasurethankstoitsspecialrelationshipwithRussiaandhuge
subsidiesfromMoscow,coupledwitharepressiveregimethathassucceededineliminatingor
marginalizingallopposition.
SincethecrisisinUkraine,LukashenkohassoughttodistancehimselfsomewhatfromMoscow
andrebuildbridgestotheWest.HiseffortshavemetwithreciprocalstepsonthepartoftheEU.137
SomeofthisoutreachtotheWestisnodoubtduetothediminishingeconomicprospectsin
relationswithRussiaandtheneedforeconomicassistancetokeeptheregimeafloat.138
Lukashenko,whoissixty-one,couldremaininofficeforanotherdecadeorlonger.Withhisskillat
navigatingbetweenRussiaandtheWestprovedoverthecourseoftwodecadesandhisholdon
powerunchallenged,hecouldcontinuetomaneuverbetweenthetwoopposingsidesforanequally
longtime.
ThegreatestriskforLukashenkoorhissuccessorisinarapprochementwiththeWestthatRussia
wouldfindthreateningtoitsinterests.TheBelarusianborderisbarely300milesfromMoscow.A
pro-WesterngovernmentinMinskwouldundoubtedlybeseenbytheKremlininequally
threateningtermsasUkrainespursuitofanAssociationAgreementwiththeEU,ifnotmoreso.
BelarusiscloselyintegratedinRussiandefenseplanstocounterNATORussiahasambitionsfor
furtherintegrationandexpansionofitsmilitarypresencethere.139Lukashenkosstatedopposition
toaRussianairbaseinBelarusislikelytobeseeninMoscowasasignthattheBelarusianleaderis
notareliableallyandcannotbetrusted.140
AchangeinBelarussstrategicorientation,eitherasaresultofadeliberatedecisionbyLukashenko
orhissuccessor,orasaconsequenceofadomesticupheaval,couldforcetheKremlinshandto
launchyetanothermilitaryintervention.ThistimeitwouldbedirectlyonRussiasborderwiththree
NATOmemberstatesLatvia,Lithuania,andPoland.
MoldovaMoreoftheSame?
Impoverished,smallMoldovahasneverrecoveredfromthelegacyofitsconflictfrozensince
1992withtheRussianminorityinbreakawayTransnistria.Thecountryhasbeenshakenby
repeatedscandalsandpoliticalproteststhathaveincapacitateditsgovernment.Moldovaremains
dividedbetweenthosewhoadvocateclosertieswithRomania,fromwhichitslargepartwassplit
offin1940asaresultoftheMolotov-RibbentropPact,andthosewhowantclosertieswith
Russia.141
Moldovaspoliticshasbeendysfunctionalformostofitshistoryasanindependentstate.Thereis
littleinthecountryscurrentpoliticaloreconomiclandscapeandoutlooktosuggestthatthenear-
permanentgridlockislikelytochangeandbereplacedbyabetter-functioninggovernmentthat
wouldmovethecountryclosereithertoRomaniaandtheEUortoRussia.Thepoliticalparalysis
andeconomicstagnationarethereforelikelytocontinueindefinitely,astheyhaveformuchofthe
pastquartercentury.
AnotherpossiblescenarioforMoldovaoverthenextdecadeoradecadeandahalfentailsa
gradualmigrationofMoldovancitizenstoRomania,takingadvantageofRomaniasofferof
passports.Thiswouldeffectivelycontinuethetrendofworking-ageMoldovansleavingtheir
homelandasguestworkerselsewhereinEuropeorinRussia.AccordingtoWorldBankdata,
between2011and2015,personalremittancesamountedtomorethan25percentofMoldovas
GDP.142RussiaseconomicslowdownislikelytoaffectMoldovanguestworkersthere,increasing
pressurestomigratetoEurope.RussiansanctionsagainstMoldovainretributionforitssigningan
AssociationAgreementwiththeEUarelikelytofurtherrestrictMoldovanguestworkersaccessto
Russia,thusincreasingpressuresformigrationtoRomania.143Thiswouldineffectstimulatea
gradualhollowingoutofMoldovaanditsdefactointegrationwithRomania.Aslongasthis
processdoesnottriggeractionsleadingtoamoreformalintegrationandanadversereactionfrom
Russia,thestatusquoinMoldovawouldremain.
FromaBuddingPartnershiptoHostilityWithTurkey
OneofRussiasmajorbreakthroughrelationshipsaftertheColdWarwaswithTurkey.Thetwo
historicalrivalsbuiltanewrelationshipbasedonrecognitionofmutualbenefits.144Turkeyquickly
emergedasamajordestinationforRussiantraders,tourists,andenergycompanies.Turkish
companiesestablishedthemselvesintheRussianrealestatedevelopmentindustry,andTurkish
agriculturalproducersfoundareadymarketfortheirexportsinRussia.145
DefyingthelegacyoftheColdWarandcenturiesofgeopoliticalrivalrypriortothat,Russiaand
Turkeydevelopedapartnershipthatseemeddestinedtogetstronger.Theirpartnershipwas
buoyedbytwoimportantfactors.First,bothcountriesstruggledtofindtheirplaceinEurope,
which,despitepromisesofpartnership,keptthematarmslength.Theotherfactorwasthe
blossomingpersonalrelationshipbetweenthetwocountriespresidents,PutinandRecepTayyip
Erdoan.Bothproudoftheirreputationsasstrongleaderstransformingtheircountries,both
increasinglyaccusedofauthoritarianbehaviorathomeandcriticizedforitabroad,thetwo
presidentsweredescribedinaWashingtonPostarticlesheadlineasmadeforeachother.146
ThecivilwarinSyria,inwhichRussiahassupportedthegovernmentofSyrianPresidentBasharal-
AssadandTurkeyhassoughttooverthrowit,hasintroducedfrictionsintherelationshipbetween
AnkaraandMoscowbutdidnotchangewhatPutindescribedasitsfriendlyandcooperative
nature.147
TheRussian-Turkishrelationship,whichhadbeenfull
ofpromiseanddeliveredmuchtobothcountries,
almostinstantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialroots
withnoprospectofimprovementintheforeseeable
future.
ThemajorshiftinrelationsbetweenTurkeyandRussia,rekindlingtalkabouttheircenturies-old
geopoliticalrivalry,occurredinlateNovember2015,whenaTurkishF-16fightershotdowna
RussianSu-24groundattackaircraft.148TheTurkishgovernmentsaidatthetimethattheRussian
aircrafthadviolatedTurkishairspaceaclaimdisputedbytheRussiangovernment.Putin
describedTurkishactionsasastabinthebackandreferredtotheTurkishgovernmentas
accomplicesofterrorism.149PutinreportedlyrefusedtheTurkishpresidentsoutreachattempts,
andtheRussiangovernmentproceededtoimposeeconomicsanctionsonTurkey.150Arelationship
thathadbeenfullofpromiseforbothcountriesanddeliveredsomuchtobothalmostinstantly
revertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectofimprovementintheforeseeablefuture.151
InstabilityintheSouthCaucasus
HavingregainedCrimea,andwithitsecureditsholdontheBlackSeaFleetbaseinSevastopol,
RussiahassealedthetransformationoftheBlackSeaintoalong-termhostileenvironment.None
oftheBlackSealittoralstatescanbecountedonasapartnerbyRussianmilitaryplanners.All
exceptforUkraineandGeorgiaareNATOmembers.KyivandTbilisiviewRussiaasanaggressor
andthebiggestthreattotheirsurvivalasindependentandsovereignstates,andbothhavemade
membershipinthealliancethekeygoaloftheirnationalsecuritypolicies.ThesituationintheBlack
SearegionisfurtheraggravatedfromMoscowsstandpointbythebreakdowninRussian-Turkish
relationsfollowingRussiasmilitarydeploymenttoSyriaandtheshootingdownoftheRussian
aircraftbyTurkey.
ThesituationintheSouthCaucasusishardlymorereassuringforRussiandefenseplanners,albeit
fordifferentreasons,largelyunconnectedtoNATO.Theregion,hometothreefrozenconflictsin
Nagorno-Karabakh,Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia,ishighlylikelytoundergomajorchangesasa
functionofitsinternaldynamicsanddevelopmentsarounditinthenextfivetotenyears.
AmajordriverofchangeintheSouthCaucasuspromisestobeAzerbaijan.Hailedinthe1990sas
asecularIslamiccountrywithamoderateauthoritarianregimepresidedoverbyarelativelytolerant
pro-Westernleader,Azerbaijanalsohadvasteconomicpotentialthankstoitsoilwealthand
opennesstoforeignoilcompaniesinvestment.Little,ifany,ofthatpromisehasmaterialized.The
relativelybenignandconfidentdictatorshipofHeydarAliyevwasreplacedin2003bythe
kleptocratic,increasinglyinsecure,andhighlyintolerantregimeofhissonIlham.Theregimes
appealtothepublicbasedonitsclaimofdeliveringameasureofwell-beinghasbeenerodedby
thedeclineinthepriceofoilthathasdealtasevereblowtoAzerbaijanseconomy.152Moreover,
theprospectofdepletingitsmajoroildepositsthreatensthecountrywiththelossofitscritical
sourceofrevenueatatimewhenitsalternativestrategyofpositioningitselfasakeysupplierand
transithubofnaturalgashastocontendwiththesamefalloutfromthelowoilpriceenvironment.153
Theproteststhathaverockedthecountryastheeconomysputtersraisequestionsaboutthe
regimeslongevityandabilitytosustaindomesticstability.Intheeventofaprolongedeconomic
slumpcausedbylowoilprices,IlhamAliyevsregimewouldhaveseveraloptions,noneofthem
mutuallyexclusive:tocontinuetotightentherestrictionsontheoppositionandcivilsocietytotryto
useitsdecliningfinancialresourcestoaddressthemostpressingneedsandtoappealtonational
unityandpatriotismbyexploitingthethemeofNagorno-Karabakhandlaunchingamilitary
campaigntoregaintheoccupiedterritories.154
TheoutlookforAzerbaijancontainsbleakalternatives.Oneofthemisaninternaldestabilization
andlossofcontrolbytheregime.AnotherwouldberenewedconflictwithArmeniaoverNagorno-
Karabakh.Athirdpossibilityentailsboth.
IlhamAliyevssuppressionofnotjustalloppositionbutnearlyallcivicorganizationsand
manifestationsofindependentopinionhasunderminedAzerbaijanstieswithEuropeandtheUnited
States.Asaresult,theWestwouldnothavethenecessaryleveragetomoderatetheregimes
behaviordomesticallyorinternationally.155
ThefightingthatbrokeoutbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijaninApril2016servedasagrim
reminderofhowfragilethesituationisalongtheirlineofcontact.Tomakemattersworse,acrisis
involvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddrawintoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,
andIran.Allthreehavemajorstakesintheregion.RussiaandTurkeywouldverylikelybepitted
againsteachotherinthenewconflictsupportingtheirrespectiveclientstates.Internalturmoilin
AzerbaijanevenwithoutaconflictwithArmeniawouldalmostcertainlyinvolvemeddlingbyall
threeneighboringpowers,eachforitsownreasonsseekingtoexpanditsinfluenceinthecountry,
whichtheyconsidertobeofcriticalgeopoliticalimportance.
AcrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddraw
intoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,and
Iran.
WithRussia,Turkey,andIrancompetingforinfluenceinAzerbaijan,thecountryandthe
surroundingregioncouldexperiencespilloversfromtheconflictandtheneighborsreactionstoit.
ThesewouldalmostcertainlyaffectArmeniaandGeorgia,consideringtheboundarylinesdrawn
withoutregardtoethnicdivisions,andinfrastructureandsupplyroutesthattraversetheentire
region.
Predictingtheoutcomeofthisturmoilisaninherentlydifficulttask.Russia,Iran,andTurkeyallhave
advantagesanddisadvantagesintheirpursuitofinfluenceoverAzerbaijan.RussiaandIranhavethe
advantageofsharedborderswithAzerbaijan,whileTurkeyhastheadvantageofethnickinshipand
long-terminvestmentintherelationshipwithAzerbaijan.However,Russiahashadtodealwithits
owntroubledNorthCaucasusIranhastobemindfulofitsownAzerbaijaniTurkishpopulation
andTurkeywouldhavetocrossGeorgianorArmenianterritorytogettoAzerbaijan.Allofthese
arelikelytobecomplicatingfactorsfortheirinvolvementthere,thougheachofthesecomplicating
factorscouldserveasarationaleforinterveninginAzerbaijaniturmoil.
TheturmoilcouldlastforyearsandbecomepartofthelargerturmoilintheMiddleEast,withIran
andTurkeypittedagainsteachotherinSyria,Russian-Turkishrelationsattheirworstsincethe
ColdWar,andweapons,refugees,militants,andillicitgoodscrossinginalldirections.The
Caucasusregionmaynotseestabilityreturnforadecadeorlonger.
Onceameasureofstabilityisrestored,theregion,boththeNorthandtheSouthCaucasus,may
notberecognizable,withnewbordersandpossiblyevensomestatesdisappearingfromthemap.
TheshapeoftheregionislikelytobedeterminedbydevelopmentsaroundtheregionRussias
owntrajectoryandabilitytosecuretheNorthCaucasusTurkeysabilitytohandleitsKurdish
problemthefutureofIraqandtheconflictinSyria.Allofthesewillhaveabearingonthe
Caucasusregion,whichisnolongerseparated,asitoncewas,fromtheGreaterMiddleEast.
Whatisclear,however,isthattheregionisheadingintoanuncertainfuturefullofdangersallof
thatonRussiasdoorstep.
ATransitioninCentralAsia
CentralAsiaisinthemidstofabiggeopoliticalchangewhoseconsequencesforRussiaandEurasia
arelikelytobefeltinthenextdecadeandbeyond.Thefirstquartercenturyofindependencefor
thefivestatesofformerlySovietCentralAsiawasatimeofestablishingtheirownstatehood,
securingtheirsovereignty,andbuildinglinkstotheoutsideworld.Formuchofthatperiod,the
West,andespeciallytheUnitedStates,playedakeyroleasasupporterofthefivestates
independence,sovereignty,andintegrationintotheinternationalarena.156
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,
Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantin
CentralAsia,theregionisallbutcertaintoshiftits
geopoliticalorientationfromtheWesttotheEast.
DuringthepostColdWarperiodoftheWestsdominance,thenewstatesintegrationintothe
internationalarenawastoaverylargeextentequatedwithbuildingtiestoWesternstructuresthe
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope,theWorldBank,andtheIMF,aswellas
NATOandtheEU.Moreover,thankstotheU.S.-ledcampaigninAfghanistan,theWestservedas
amajorsecurityprovidertoCentralAsiafornearlyadecadeandahalfaftertheSeptember11,
2001,terroristattacks.Insum,forthefirstquartercenturyofCentralAsiasindependence,the
Westplayedakeyroleinensuringtheregionssecurity.EvenRussia,asaEuropeanpower,albeit
notcontenttoseetheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesinvolvedinitsjealouslyguardedbackyard,
ineffectservedasaconnectiontoEuropeforCentralAsia.
Thatisnowchanging.TheUnitedStatesisactivelylookingtodisengagefromAfghanistan,oratthe
veryleasttominimizeitsrolethere,whilemanyU.S.allieshavepulledtheirforcesoutof
Afghanistanaltogether.TheWestsroleasasecurityproviderforCentralAsiaisending.
Tradeandinvestmentflows,too,aredrivingCentralAsiatowardadifferentgravitationalpolefrom
theWestChina.ChinastradewithCentralAsiahasincreasedmorethanahundredfoldinthe
pastquartercenturyandpassedthe$50billionmarkin2013.Chineseinvestmentinpipelines,
roads,andenergyexplorationismeasuredinthetensofbillionsofdollarsandisprojectedtogrow
further,asChinaplansambitiousnewprojectsfortheregioninthenextdecade.Russiahasbeen
losingtheeconomiccompetitionwithChinainCentralAsia,whiletheUnitedStatesandEurope
barelyregisterastradepartners.157
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantin
CentralAsia,theregionisallbutcertainfortheforeseeablefuturetoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientation
fromtheWest,towhichitwasleaningduringthefirstquartercenturyofitsindependence,tothe
East.Thisisboundtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforallinvolved.
FortheCentralAsianstates,aswellasforRussiaandChina,thismeansthattheUnitedStateswill
nolongerbeprovidingsecurityfortheregion.Agreaterburdeninthisrespectwillfallonthe
CentralAsiastatesthemselves,aswellasontheirimmediateneighbors,especiallyRussiaand
China.ThisraisesthequestionofRussiasabilitytoactastheregionssecuritymanagerforCentral
AsiainlightofMoscowslimitedcapabilitiesandchallengeselsewhere,andofChinaswillto
engageintheregioninaroleithasbeenreluctanttoassume.Theresultofthischangewillbe
greateruncertaintyandpotentiallygreaterinstabilityfacingRussianplannersastheycontemplatethe
futureoftheregionthattheyhavelongviewedasamajorvulnerabilityontheirperiphery.Itseems
nothingisstableandsecureonRussiasthresholdanywhere,initsfrontyardoritsbackyard.
Conclusion
AttheendofthefirstquartercenturyafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,Russiaisathreattoits
neighborsandfeelsdeeplythreatenedbythem.Itssenseofvulnerabilityandinferiorityvis--visthe
Westislong-standinganddeep,anditissurroundedbyavast,diverse,andturbulentregionwitha
multitudeofpotentialcrisesthatholdoutthepossibilityofescalatingintolargerconflicts.This
unstablesituationinEuropesEastandEurasiaisaproductoftheinterplayoverthepasttwenty-
fiveyearsofmultiplefactors,bothindigenoustotheirhomeregionsandresultingfromactionsof
outsidepowersandexternaldevelopments.
ChiefamongthesefactorsisRussiasownevolutionfromaquietlydissenting,grumbling,but
nonethelesslargelypassivebystanderindevelopmentofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurity
architectureintoitsactiveopponentandastatecapableofprojectingpowerarounditsperiphery
andassertingitselfbeyonditsimmediateneighborhoodindefenseofitsinterests.Aseriesofevents
the2008Russian-GeorgianWar,the2014annexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,
theemergenceofsecuritythreatstotheBaltics,theeconomicstormsbuffetingRussiasneighbors
fromMoldovatoTajikistanillustrateshowmuchswayRussiacontinuestoholdoverthesecurity
andwell-beingofthepost-Sovietstates,nomatterhowmuchtheyhavetriedtoleavethatlabel
behindandbreakoutoftheRussiansphereofinfluence.
Russia,inotherwords,remainstheessentialsecuritypillarinEasternEuropeandEurasia.Astable,
prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisfarmorelikelytobeasourceofthesametoits
neighborsthanthealternativeaninsecure,unstable,andstrugglingRussia,whichhascastalong
anddarkshadowoverthem.
UnfortunatelyforRussiasneighborsandfortheirfriends,allies,andpartners,theprospectofa
stable,prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisremote.Theoutlookforthecountryforthe
foreseeablefutureisbleakabsentmajorreforms,whereassuchreformsappearunlikely.
NowhereisthesenseofpessimismaboutRussiasprospectsmoreacutethaninsideRussiaitself.It
permeatesRussianassessmentsofthecountryseconomicconditionandprospects,itspolitical
stability,anditsmilitaryinrelationtothethreatsandchallengestoitssecurity.Foremostamong
thesesecuritythreats,intheviewofRussiandefenseexperts,isNATO,followedcloselybyfragile
statesaroundRussiasperiphery.
Thetransatlanticsecurityorderintendedasaframeworkforbringingunity,security,andstabilityto
allofEurope,includingRussia,isseenbyitssecurityestablishmentastheprincipalchallengetoits
securityandstability,intendedtoexploititsmanyvulnerabilities.ThisassessmentofWestern
motivesandactionsresultingfromthemhasenduredwithremarkableconsistencyintheRussian
nationalsecuritynarrativesincetheearliestdaysofthepost-SovietRussianstatetothepresent.Itis
thedominantviewinMoscowsnationalsecurityestablishmentwithnodissentingvoicesofany
consequence.
EquallyenduringandwidespreadamongRussianelitesandexpertsistheperceptionofRussias
deepinferiorityeconomically,militarilyvis--vistheWest.ThecombinationofRussias
insecurityanditsperceptionoftheWestshostilitytoithasbeentheprincipaldriverofRussian
securitypolicy.TherejectionofexpansionbyNATOandtheEUintocountriesapparently
genuinelyviewedbyRussianpolicymakersaswithintheirsphereofprivilegedinterests,coupled
withthefearoftheWesternsecurityandpoliticalorderapproachingRussiasborders,wasthekey
motivatorbehindthewarwithGeorgiaandtheundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.Thisunderlying
Russianworldviewisunlikelytochangeintheforeseeablefuture.
TheemergingnewsecurityorderwithNATOrethinkingitspostColdWarpostureforthefirst
timeinaquartercenturyandrebuildingitsdeterrentcapabilitiesandwithRussiabuildingupits
militarycapabilitiesalongitswesternborderisunstableandunpredictable.BothRussiaandthe
Westfeelinsecureandcompelledtodomore,raisingtherisksofanescalatorydynamicinthename
ofdefenseanddeterrence.
NothingjustifiesRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine,whichviolatedmultipleRussian
internationalcommitmentsandhastriggeredtheworstpoliticalandsecuritycrisisinEuropeina
generation.However,indevisingtheirresponsetoRussianactions,Westernpolicymakersshould
beclearaboutthedriversandmotivationsofRussianactionstheinsecurityandperceptionof
vulnerabilityasregardstheWest,ingrainedinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentfora
generation.WesternpolicymakersshouldalsobeclearthatMoscowhasneveracceptedthe
argumentthattheexpansionofWesterninstitutionswasmeantasamovetowarditratherthan
againstit.
WesterndiscussionsaboutthenewlydiscoveredvulnerabilityofNATOalliesthatborderRussia,
especiallytheBalticstates,mustnotoverlookthefactthattheBalticstatesmembershipinNATO
hasmeanttoRussianmilitaryplannersthatNATO,stillseenasahostilealliance,isnowonly100
milesfromSaintPetersburg,andthatthecurrentbuildupofNATOcapabilitiesintheBalticstatesis
occurringlessthanatwo-hourdrivefromRussiassecondmostimportantcity.Western
policymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrentcapabilitiesinthe
frontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.Thebuildup
ofRussiananti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiesinCrimeaandKaliningradandthreats
todeploynuclearweaponstherearestrongindicatorsthattensionswillincreaseratherthansubside
intheseregions.158
Inthiscontext,themostdisturbingaspectofthisrenewedadversarialrelationshipisthereturnof
thespecterofnuclearwartotheEuropeancontinent.Russiaslong-standingperceivedinferiority
vis--visNATOsconventionalcapabilitiesandtheirproximitytotheRussianheartlandhavegiven
risetoamilitarystrategythatassignsacriticalroletolimitednuclearstrikesearlyinaconflictasa
meansofthwartingNATOsconventionaldominanceandendingtheconflictbeforeitresultsin
devastatinglossestotheheartland.Defenseofthehomelandhastakenonenhancedpriority
becauseafterthelossoftheouterandinnerempiresandtheexpansionofNATO,ithasbecome
theforwardareainanyfutureconflictbetweenRussiaandNATO.
Needlesstosay,anyuseofnuclearweaponswillbeadecisionmadebyRussiaspolitical
leadership,andexpertwritingsaboutearlynuclearuseshouldnotbetreatedasareliableindicator
offutureRussianactions.Nonetheless,theprominenceofnuclearweaponsinRussianstrategic
thoughtisindicativeofthecountrysperceivedvulnerabilitiesandintensityoftheadversarial
relationshipwiththeWest.
FortheUnitedStatesanditsallies,thisposesadauntingchallengehowtorespondtoRussian
actionsinamannerthatensuresacredible,robustdeterrentposturethatisstabilizinganddoesnot
feedRussiasworstperceptionsofitsownvulnerabilities.Relianceonnucleardeterrenceinthis
contextcouldproveescalatoryandreinforceRussianmilitaryplannersnuclearleanings,while
relianceonconventionalmeanswouldunderscoreRussiasperceivedvulnerabilities.
Nowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetween
RussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensity
thaninEasternEurope.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreater
intensitythaninEasternEuropethestatesoftheformerSovietUnionthathavenotjoinedthe
Euro-Atlanticpolitical,economic,andsecurityinstitutionsandareunwillingtojointheRussian-
dominatedcounterpartEurasianstructures.Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,and
Ukrainehavebecomethebattlegroundstates,toonedegreeoranotherpulledindifferent
directionsinthegeopoliticaltug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Much,ifnotmost,oftheattentionfollowingRussiasaggressionagainstUkrainehasbeenfocused
ontheBalticstatesastheNATOalliesmostexposedandvulnerabletoRussianattack.Baltic
defenseisundoubtedlyamajorchallengeforthealliance.However,Russianactionsbefore,during,
andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthatMoscowstilltakesNATOsArticle5security
guaranteeofitsmembersseriouslyandthatitisnotpreparedtotestthatguaranteedirectly.Rather,
itsactionsinformationandcyberoperations,airspaceviolations,nuclearsaberrattling,andthelike
appearaimedatcreatinganairofuncertaintyaboutthatguaranteeandunderminingmember
statesconfidenceinit.RussianleadershavedemonstratedtwicebytheiractionsinGeorgiain
2008andinUkrainesince2014thattheytakethatguaranteeseriously.Russianleaderswentto
wartwicetopreventthetwocountriesfrommovingclosertotheWestandeventuallyasthey
sawitjoiningNATO.
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsforthesixbattlegroundstates.
LackingNATOssecurityguarantee,theyremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereof
privilegedinterests.Itispreparedtouseallavailablemeans,includingmilitaryforce,tokeepthem
inthatsphere.AslongastheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,
theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
Despitethisadversarialrelationship,inmanyinstances,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillhaveno
choicebuttocooperatewithRussia,oratleastseekitsconsenttopursuetheirinterestsinEurasia.
BesidestheobviousexamplesofSyria,Afghanistan,ornucleartalkswithIran,inallofwhich
Russiahasplayedanimportantpart,futureexamplesofsuchsituationsmayinvolvecontingenciesin
EasternEurope,theSouthCaucasus,orCentralAsia.Inallofthoselocations,whetherforreasons
ofgeography,politics,oreconomics,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillneedtogetRussiaon
boardtobeabletorespondtonaturaldisasters,humanitariancrises,regionalconflicts,orother
unforeseenevents.
Absentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeither
RussiaorNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwill
remainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurity
orderfortheforeseeablefuture.
Moreover,evenintimeswhencircumstancesforceRussiaandtheWesttocooperate,Russiais
likelytosustainitsotherdestabilizingbehaviors.Theuseofmeasuresshortofwareconomiclevers
instatesthatarevulnerable,suchasBulgaria,Cyprus,orGreeceandbribery,blackmail,infiltration
ofintelligenceoperatives,andanassortmentofothertacticswillbepartofthetoolkitdeployedby
Russianpolicymakersintimesofcrisis,aswellasinpeacetimeaspartofthenormalcontinuationof
warfarebyothermeans.
Russiasrelianceontheseformsofcompetitionshortofoutrightwarfareisfullyjustifiedintheeyes
ofthecountryssecurityestablishmentasasymmetricmeanswarrantedbytheperceivedRussia-
NATOimbalance.RussianrelianceonthemandtheintensityofitsoppositiontotheEuro-Atlantic
securityorderareunlikelytodiminishifitseconomicprospectsordomesticstabilityerode.Onthe
contrary,suchreliancemaybecomeevengreaterasotherinstrumentsinitstoolkitbecomescarcer.
AsseenfromRussia,theenvironmentinEuropeandEurasiahasleftMoscowwithoutreliable
partners,letaloneallies.NATOsexpansionhaspositionedthealliance,viewedbyRussianelitesas
adversarial,onthecountrysdoorstep,farcloserthanithaseverbeen.Theothersideofthiscoinis
thatRussiaisonNATOsdoorstepasithasneverbeenbefore.Theresultisastateofprofound
mutualinsecurity.AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussiaorNATO,this
adversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderforthe
foreseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoaddressthese
tensions.
Notes
1AEuropeWholeandFree,transcriptofremarksbyPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushtothe
citizensinMainz,FederalRepublicofGermany,U.S.DiplomaticMissiontoGermany,May31,
1989,http://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/ga6-890531.htm.
2DmitriTrenin,TheCrisisinCrimeaCouldLeadtheWorldIntoaSecondColdWar,
Guardian,March2,2014,http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-
crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war.
3ThisissueisdiscussedindetailinRajanMenonandEugeneRumer,ConflictinUkraine:The
UnwindingofthePostColdWarOrder(Cambridge,MA:MITPress,2015).
4OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),HelsinkiFinalAct,August1,
1975,http://www.osce.org/mc/39501.
5OSCE,CharterofParisforaNewEurope,November21,1990,
http://www.osce.org/node/39516.
6EuropeanUnion,TreatyofMaastrichtonEuropeanUnion,February7,1992,http://eur-
lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:xy0026.
7,:
,,281992,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/31532.
8Ibid.
9YevgeniyAmbartsumov,InteresyRossiiNeZnayutGranits[Russianinterestsknowno
borders],Megapolis-Express,May6,1992.
10AleksandrVladislavlevandSergeyKaraganov,TyazhkiyKrestRossii[Russiasheavycross],
NezavisimayaGazeta,November11,1992.
11TimothyHeritage,Grachev:NATOGrowthaThreat,MoscowTimes,March28,1996,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/grachev-nato-growth-a-threat/326450.html.
12JanePerlez,YeltsinUnderstandsPolishBidforaRoleinNATO,NewYorkTimes,August
26,1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/26/world/yeltsin-understands-polish-bid-for-a-role-in-
nato.html.
13RogerCohen,YeltsinOpposesExpansionofNATOinEasternEurope,NewYorkTimes,
October2,1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/02/world/yeltsin-opposes-expansion-of-nato-
in-eastern-europe.html.
14Ibid.
15JamestownFoundation,ChubaisDemandsCompensationforNATOEnlargement,Monitor
3,no.84(April1997).
16SamuelHuntington,TheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrder(New
York:Simon&Schuster,1996)ZbigniewBrzezinski,TheGrandChessboard:American
PrimacyandItsGeostrategicImperatives(NewYork:BasicBooks,1997).
17DouglasJ.Gillert,AfterJumping,BattalionLearnstoCrawl,DoDNews,U.S.Departmentof
Defense,October1,1997.
18ModestKolerov,BezSSSR[WithouttheUSSR](Moscow:Regnum,2008).
19Http://www.pressarchive.ru/nijegorodskie-novosti/1999/08/21/135100.html(page
discontinued).
20:,
,,172015,http://glavred.info/mir/zhurnalist-rf-o-motivacii-
putina-pomnit-sudby-miloshevicha-kaddafi-i-dedushki-pinocheta-323242.html.
21CelesteA.Wallander,RussianNationalSecurityPolicyin2000(PONARS[Programon
NewApproachestoRussianSecurity]PolicyMemo102,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,
HarvardUniversity,2000)NikolaiSokov,TheViewsoftheMilitaryLeadership,in
ModernizationofStrategicNuclearWeaponsinRussia:TheEmergingNewPosture(PONARS
WorkingPaperNo.6,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,May1998).
22GrossDomesticProduct:Russia19902014,WorldMacroeconomicResearch,19702014,
http://www.kushnirs.org/macroeconomics_/en/russia__gdp.html.
23PutinsPreparedRemarksat43rdMunichConferenceonSecurityPolicy,WashingtonPost,
February12,2007,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/02/12/AR2007021200555.html.
24UweKlumann,MatthiasSchepp,andKlausWiegrefe,NATOsEastwardExpansion:Didthe
WestBreakItsPromisetoMoscow?,SpiegelOnline,November26,2009,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-
promise-to-moscow-a-663315.html.
25MaryEliseSarotte,ABrokenPromise?WhattheWestReallyToldMoscowAboutNATO
Expansion,ForeignAffairs,September/October2014,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-11/broken-promise.
26SergeyLavrov,Democracy,InternationalGovernance,andtheFutureWorldOrder,Russia
inGlobalAffairs,no.1(February9,2005):http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_4422.
27CheneyChidesRussiaonDemocracy,BBC,May4,2006,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4972464.stm.
28StevenErlanger,Putin,atNATOMeeting,CurbsCombativeRhetoric,NewYorkTimes,
April5,2008,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/world/europe/05nato.htmlTextofPutins
SpeechatNATOSummit(Bucharest,April2,2008),UnianInformationAgency,April18,2008,
http://www.unian.info/world/111033-text-of-putins-speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-
2008.html.
29MedvedevonRussiasInterests,Economist,September1,2008,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/certainideasofeurope/2008/09/medvedev_on_russias_interests.
30ChristianLowe,GeorgiaWarShowsRussianArmyStrongbutFlawed,Reuters,August20,
2008,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-ossetia-military-idUSLK23804020080820.
31RussianMilitaryCapability,FOI(SwedishDefenceResearchAgency),
http://www.foi.se/en/Our-Knowledge/Security-policy-studies/Russia/Russian-Military-Capability/.
32DmitryMedvedevsBuildingProject,Economist,November26,2009,
http://www.economist.com/node/14973198.
33UkrainesParliamentVotestoAbandonNatoAmbitions,BBC,June3,2010,
http://www.bbc.com/news/10229626.
34DavidM.HerszenhornandEllenBarry,LargeAnti-PutinProtestSignalsGrowingResolve,
NewYorkTimes,June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/europe/anti-putin-
demonstrators-gather-in-moscow.htmlHundredsDetainedAfterMoscowAnti-PutinProtest,
Guardian,March5,2012,http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2012/mar/05/russian-election-
reaction-putin-liveRussianPresidentDmitryMedvedevAdmitsPoliticalReformNecessary,
Telegraph,December22,2011,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8972807/Russian-President-Dmitry-
Medvedev-admits-political-reform-necessary.html.
35Russia,SovietStyle,NewYorkTimes,June12,2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/opinion/russia-soviet-style.html.
36KarounDemirjian,MeanwhileinRussia,PutinPassesLawAgainstProtests,Washington
Post,July22,2014,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/meanwhile-in-russia-putin-
passes-law-against-protests/MiriamElder,RussiansFearCrackdownasHundredsAreArrested
AfterAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March6,2012,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/06/russians-crackdown-anti-putin-protestKathy
LallyandKarenDeYoung,PutinAccusesClinton,U.S.ofFomentingElectionProtests,
WashingtonPost,December8,2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-
accuses-clinton-us-of-stirring-election-protests/2011/12/08/gIQA0MUDfO_story.html.
37D.GarrisonGolubock,CultureMinistryAffirmsRussiaIsNotEurope,MoscowTimes,
April7,2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/arts_n_ideas/article/culture-ministry-affirms-
russia-is-not-europe/497658.html.
38VladimirPutin,ANewIntegrationProjectforEurasia:TheFutureintheMaking,Izvestia,
October3,2011,asreprintedbythePermanentMissionoftheRussianFederationtothe
EuropeanUnion,http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-
integration-project-eurasia-future-making-izvestia-3-.
39Ibid.
40EuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP),EuropeanUnionexternalaction,
http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/.
41OleksandrSushko,AForkintheRoad?UkraineBetweenEUAssociationandtheEurasian
CustomsUnion(PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemoNo.293,September2013)tefanFle,
StatementonthePressureExercisedbyRussiaonCountriesoftheEasternPartnership,press
release,EuropeanCommission,September11,2013.
42AlexandraMcLeesandEugeneRumer,SavingUkrainesDefenseIndustry,Carnegie
EndowmentforInternationalPeace,July30,2014,
http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/07/30/saving-ukraine-s-defense-industry.
4316%ofNaturalGasConsumedinEuropeFlowsThroughUkraine,U.S.EnergyInformation
Administration,March14,2014,http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15411.
44JudyDempsey,U.S.SenatorUrgesUseofNATODefenseClauseforEnergy,International
HeraldTribune,November28,2006,http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/world/europe/28iht-
nato.3702073.html.
45Formoreonthis,seeMenonandRumer,ConflictinUkraine.
46DanLamothe,RussiaIsGreatestThreattotheU.S.,SaysJointChiefsChairmanNominee
Gen.JosephDunford,WashingtonPost,July9,2015,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/09/russia-is-greatest-threat-to-the-
u-s-says-joint-chiefs-chairman-nominee-gen-joseph-dunford/.
47JulianE.Barnes,NATOsBreedloveCallsforSharperFocusonRussiaAheadofDeparture,
WallStreetJournal,May1,2016,http://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-breedlove-calls-for-
sharper-focus-on-russia-ahead-of-departure-1462115561TheodoreSchleiferandJimSciutto,
TopArmyLeader:RussiaIsMostDangerousThreatFacingU.S.,CNN,August12,2015,
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/russia-army-leader-dangerous-odierno/.
48TheRussianNavy:AHistoricTransition,OfficeofNavalIntelligence,December18,2015,
http://news.usni.org/2015/12/18/document-office-of-naval-intelligence-report-on-russian-navy.
49,,,,
,152016,http://www.ng.ru/courier/2016-02-15/9_friends.html.
50,,11
2015,http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50913.
51,,31
2015,http://kremlin.ru/acts/news/51129.
52,:
,,102015,
http://www.ng.ru/news/519934.html?print=Y.
53NATO-RussiaRelations:TheFacts,NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,lastupdated
December17,2015,http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm.
54,,,23
2014,http://rg.ru/2014/04/23/karaganov-site.html.
55RussianNationalSecurityStrategy,December2015Full-TextTranslation,InstitutoEspaol
deEstudiosEstratgicos,December31,2015,
http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-
Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf.
56Transcript:InterviewWithSergeiIvanov,FinancialTimes,June21,2015,
http://next.ft.com/content/b81bbd70-17f0-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.
57,,,222015,
http://m.rg.ru/2015/12/22/patrushev-site.html.
58,:
,(),232015,
http://svop.ru//lectorium/18389/.
59,,.,29,2015,
http://lenta.ru/articles/2015/12/29/alone/,:
.
60,.
61,.
,,302015,
http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-30/1_otredaktora.html.
62,:.
63,:,
,152016,http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2016/01/15/624167-
gref-rossiya.
64,2023-:
,,212015,
http://www.rbc.ru/opinions/economics/21/12/2015/567799949a79478889fd54ee
,http://svop.ru.
653.,,302015,
http://www.ng.ru/economics/2015-12-30/4_import.html.
66,:,
,,252015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/28148.
67:
,,222016,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3303885,
,,292016,http://kommersant.ru/doc/2975531.
68,,,182015,http://vpk-
news.ru/articles/24284.
69Ibid.
70NATOCondemnsPutinsNuclearSabre-Rattling,BBC,June16,2015,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33153703AdamWithnall,RussiaThreatensDenmark
WithNuclearWeaponsifItTriestoJoinNATODefenceShield,Independent,March22,2015.
71DavidLermanandTerryAtlas,RussiasSaber-RattlingThreatensStability,U.S.Says,
Bloomberg,June25,2015,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-
denmark-with-nuclear-weapons-if-it-tries-to-join-nato-defence-shield-10125529.html.
72,,,
,272015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-11-
27/1_stairway.html.
73MaryC.Fitzgerald,MarshalOgarkovonModernWar:19771985,ProfessionalPaper
443.10,CenterforNavalAnalyses,revisedNovember1986.
74DoctorStrangeloveDoomsdayMachine,YouTubevideo,postedbyliberalartist6,July
31,2010,http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yfXgu37iyI.
75RussiaRevealsGiantNuclearTorpedoinStateTVLeak,BBC,November12,2015,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34797252.
76,,-,25
2015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24405.
77DavidE.Hoffman,In1983WarScare,SovietLeadershipFearedNuclearSurpriseAttack
byU.S.,WashingtonPost,October24,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-
security/in-1983-war-scare-soviet-leadership-feared-nuclear-surprise-attack-by-
us/2015/10/24/15a289b4-7904-11e5-a958-d889faf561dc_story.html.
78Forathoroughdiscussionofthis,seePavelPodvig,DidStarWarsHelpEndtheColdWar?
SovietResponsetotheSDIProgram(workingpaper,RussianNuclearForcesProject,March
17,2013).
79:,
,182015,http://ria.ru/interview/20150218/1048334517.html.
80Ibid.
81,,-
,132014,http://www.vko.ru/strategiya/v-poiskah-strategicheskoy-stabilnosti.
82,
,,282012,http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2012-
09-28/11_satan.html.
83,-,282013,
http://vpk-news.ru/news/16557.
84Ibid,,.,
182004,http://polit.ru/article/2004/11/18/slipch/,
,,
2013,http://www.intertrends.ru/thirty-second/Volodin.pdf...
,Viperson.ru,30
2012,http://viperson.ru/wind.php?ID=652675.
85,
,
:,-,
,,202020.,http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/em092012.htm.
86,,,-
,132014,http://www.vko.ru/geopolitika/ugrozy-bezopasnosti-
rossii.
87,,,-,
-,212015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/27617.
88Ibid.
89RussiaHasDeliveredOver1,000AirstrikesinSyriaSinceStartofYearGeneral,TASS,
January11,2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/848749.
90,,,23
2014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-09-23/1_rogozin.html.
91StepanKravchenko,PutinTellsDefenseChiefstoStrengthenRussianNuclearForces,
Bloomberg,December11,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/putin-
tells-defense-chiefs-to-strengthen-russian-nuclear-forces.
92,
,,122014,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-09-12/1_oborona.html.
93,:4202,
,,222015,
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/07/22/istochnik-rossiya-ispytyvaet-giperzvukovoy-obekt-4202-
kotoryy-obescenit-amerikanskuyu-pro.html.
94,-.,
,162014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-12-16/3_kartblansh.html.
95,:4202,
,,222015,
96PetrTopychkanov,IsRussiaAfraidofChineseandIndianMissiles?CarnegieMoscow
Center,November3,2014,http://carnegie.ru/2014/11/03/is-russia-afraid-of-chinese-and-indian-
missiles.
97,Newsru.com,
42015,http://www.newsru.com/russia/04jul2015/midnukes.html.
98,,
,32014,http://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2014-10-03/1_strike.html.
99,,,-
,272016,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/30420.
100:
,-,282013,http://file-rf.ru/context/2324.
101Ibid.
102,
,,152016,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2016-01-15/10_infowar.html.
103:
104ThedoctrineoftheRussianFederationInformationSecurity(inRussian),
http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/6/5.html.
105:,
,132013,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2001-12-26/1_war.html.
106,,
107AgenceFrance-Presse,VladimirPutinWarnsRussianstoAvoidGoogle:TheInternetIsa
CIASpecialProject,RawStory,April24,2014,http://www.rawstory.com/2014/04/vladimir-
putin-warns-russians-to-avoid-google-the-internet-is-a-cia-special-project/RussiaandChina
WantMoreControlOvertheInternet,Stratfor,August14,2015,
http://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/russia-and-china-want-more-control-over-internet.
108,:,
,212016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/21/ru-
63383/ixdw,,,3
2015,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2781186.
109,,122016,
http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-02-12/2_red.htmlRussiasChiefInternetCensorEnlistsChinas
Know-How,FinancialTimes,April27,2016.
110,.,
,12016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/02/01/ru-62632/itei.
111MasterCard,VisaNowProcessRussianPaymentsThroughSanction-ProofSystem,
MoscowTimes,May28,2015,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mastercard-
visa-now-process-russian-payments-through-sanction-proof-system/522576.html.
112TASS,RussiaMayUseChinasPaymentInfrastructureInsteadofSWIFTVTBBank
Head,RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines,March11,2015,
http://in.rbth.com/news/2015/03/11/russia_may_use_chinas_payment_infrastructure_instead_of_swift_vtb_bank_h_41911.
113RussiaBrainstormsStrategytoReplaceBannedWesternDefenseImports,MoscowTimes,
August14,2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-brainstorms-strategy-to-
replace-banned-western-defense-imports/505133.html.
114PutinsDeoffshorizationBringsMajorFirmsBacktoTaxman,MoscowTimes,December
20,2013,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putins-deoffshorization-brings-major-
firms-back-to-taxman/491910.html.
115UriFriedman,SmartSanctions:AShortHistory,ForeignPolicy,April23,2012,
http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/04/23/smart-sanctions-a-short-history/.
116RobinNiblett,NATOMustFocusontheHybridWarsBeingWagedontheWest,
FinancialTimes,July17,2014,http://next.ft.com/content/3192c7a0-0cd2-11e4-bf1e-
00144feabdc0JohnVandiver,SACEUR:AlliesMustPrepareforRussiaHybridWar,Stars
andStripes,September4,2014,http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-must-prepare-for-
russia-hybrid-war-1.301464.
117Vandiver,HybridWar.
118,(:,2015),
http://lib100.com/book/other/hybrid_war/_%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2
%D0%A1.%D0%90.,
%D0%93%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F
%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0
%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2
%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf,
,-,
182016,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2961578:
,.,242015,
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2529147.
119,,,142014,
http://topwar.ru/56079-gibridnaya-voyna.html,:
(II),
,132015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-03-13/1_gybrid2.html
,:,
,222016,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-10-10/1_nato.html.
120,:,
121,,,302015,
http://topwar.ru/75928-mif-o-gibridnoy-voyne.html.
122Ibid.
123ShaunWalker,AlexisTsiprasinMoscowAsksEuropetoEndSanctionsAgainstRussia,
Guardian,April8,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/08/alexis-tsipras-in-
moscow-asks-europe-to-end-sanctions-against-russiaGeorgiGotev,BulgarianParliament
AlmostRejectedtheEUSanctionsAgainstRussia,EurActiv,October8,2015,
http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/bulgarian-parliament-almost-rejected-the-eu-
sanctions-against-russia/.
124IvoOliveira,NationalFrontSeeksRussianCashforElectionFight,PoliticoEurope,
February19,2016,http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-russia-crimea-putin-money-bank-
national-front-seeks-russian-cash-for-election-fight/.
125MelanieAmannetal.,TheHybridWar:RussiasPropagandaCampaignAgainstGermany,
SpiegelOnline,January30,2016,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/putin-wages-hybrid-
war-on-germany-and-west-a-1075483.htmlTheCzechsandRussia:SpyVersusPolitician,
Economist,October29,2014,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2014/10/czechs-and-russiaGregoryFeifer
andBrianWhitmore,CzechPowerGames:HowRussiaIsRebuildingInfluenceintheFormer
SovietBloc,RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty,September25,2010,
http://www.rferl.org/content/Czech_Mate_How_Russia_Is_Rebuilding_Influence_In_The_Former_Soviet_Bloc/2168090.html
AleksTapinsh,LatviaSeesGoodandBadasRussianMoneyHaven,Reuters,October23,
2012,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-latvia-russia-banks-idUSBRE89M0S120121023.
126,,,231995,
http://medium.com/@OpenUni/--1995-23-----
--9785d26186b2#.byb71wmzt.
127DmitryZhdannikovandGuyFaulconbridge,KhodorkovskySaysPutinIsLeadingRussia
TowardStagnation,Collapse,Reuters,November27,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-
russia-khodorkovsky-west-idUSKBN0TF23920151126.
128Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,atacticalmovebyPutintotheprimeministersofficewould
notconstituteameaningfulbreakwithPutinism.ThisanalysisalsoassumesthatPutinremains
healthyandthattherewillbenocoupagainsthimfortheremainderofhiscurrentterm.
129Politburo2.0andPost-CrimeanRussia,MinchenkoConsulting,October22,2014,
http://www.minchenko.ru/netcat_files/File/Politburo_2014_ENG1_pre_final1.pdfRussia:The
StrugglesWithinPartI,Stratfor,January9,2008,http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-
struggles-within-part-i.
130NeilMacFarquhar,RussiansAnxietySwellsasOilPricesCollapse,NewYorkTimes,
January22,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/world/europe/russians-anxiety-swells-as-
oil-prices-collapse.htmlTomBalmforth,SacredGround:MuscovitesProtestChurch
ConstructioninPark,RadioFreeEurope/FreeLiberty,June26,2015,
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-moscow-church-protest-torfyanka-park/27095836.html
AlexeyMalashenko,DivisionsandDefianceAmongRussiasMuslims,CarnegieMoscow
Center,November20,2015,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/11/20/divisions-and-defiance-
among-russia-s-muslims/im56MiriamElder,MoscowRiotsExposeRacismattheHeartof
RussianFootball,Guardian,December18,2010,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/spartak-moscow-race-riots-ultranationalist
AlexeyMalashenkoandAlexeyStarostin,TheRiseofNontraditionalIslamintheUrals,
CarnegieMoscowCenter,September30,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/30/rise-of-
nontraditional-islam-in-urals/iie6.
131BenJudah,PutinsMedievalPeacePactinChechnya,Bloomberg,April25,2013,
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-04-25/putin-s-medieval-peace-pact-in-chechnya
MichaelSchwirtz,RussianAngerGrowsOverChechnyaSubsidies,NewYorkTimes,October
8,2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/europe/chechnyas-costs-stir-anger-as-russia-
approaches-elections.htmlEx-MinisterSaysRussiaWillCutDefenseBudgetin23Years,
TASS,January13,2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/849380RussiatoCutSocialSpendingin
2016,RT,January14,2016,http://www.rt.com/business/328915-russia-social-spending-2016/
MoscowProtestersRallyAgainstBudgetCutsinScience,Education,RT,June6,2015,
http://www.rt.com/news/265495-moscow-protest-science-education/EugeneVorotnikov,
GovernmentPlanstoCut10%OffUniversityFunding,UniversityWorldNews,February20,
2015,http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20150220085025625.
132MikhailKrutikhin,GrabandShare:NewTaxProposalsforRussiasOilIndustry,Carnegie
MoscowCenter,October15,2015,http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=61623
,,,
242015,http://www.rbc.ru/society/24/03/2015/551134c29a7947727d49866d
,
,,302015,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-
30/1_otredaktora.html.
133RobertBurns(AssociatedPress),NATOOfficial:RussiaNowanAdversary,YahooNews,
May1,2014,http://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-official-russia-now-adversary-150211090--
politics.html?ref=gs.
134NATOLeaderSaysRussiaBuildingArcofSteelinEurope,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,
October6,2015,http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/622080/nato-leader-says-
russia-building-arc-of-steel-in-europeNaftaliBendavid,NATORampsUpResponsetoRussia,
WallStreetJournal,June24,2015,http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-ramps-up-response-to-
russia-1435174136.
135NeutralEuropeanCountries:Austria,Switzerland,Sweden,Finland,Ireland,Sloveniaand
NATO,http://nato.gov.si/eng/topic/national-security/neutral-status/neutral-countries/TheEffects
ofFinlandsPossibleNATOMembership,MinistryofForeignAffairsofFinland,April29,2016,
http://formin.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?contentid=345685TomasBertelman,JohanMolander,
andSven-OlofPeterson,APowerfulCaseforSwedishMembershipinNATO,NATOSource
(blog),AtlanticCouncil,August21,2015,http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/a-
powerful-case-for-swedish-membership-in-nato.
136RichardFontaineandJulianneSmith,Anti-Access/AreaDenialIsntJustforAsiaAnymore,
DefenseOne,April2,2015,http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/04/anti-accessarea-denial-
isnt-just-asia-anymore/109108/.
137AgenceFrance-Presse,BelarusPoll:EULiftsSanctionsonLukashenkoEuropesLast
Dictator,Guardian,October12,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/belarus-
poll-eu-lifts-sanctions-on-lukashenko-europes-last-dictator.
138SabraAyres,AsBelarusEconomyFalters,LukashenkoLooksWest,AlJazeeraAmerica,
January3,2016,http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2016/1/as-belarus-economy-falters-
lukashenko-looks-west.html.
139AnasMarin,TradingOffSovereignty.TheOutcomeofBelarussIntegrationWithRussiain
theSecurityandDefenceField,OrodekStudiwWschodnich,April29,2013,
http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-04-29/trading-sovereignty-
outcome-belaruss-integration-russiaChrisBiggers,RussianAirbaseinBelarusRemainsin
Limbo,Bellingcat,December27,2015,http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-
europe/2015/12/27/russian-airbase-belarus-remains-limbo/.
140YurasKarmanau(AssociatedPress),BelarusPresidentSaysHeDoesntWantRussianAir
Base,VoiceofAmerica,October6,2015,http://www.voanews.com/content/belarus-president-
says-he-does-not-want-russian-air-base/2993864.htmlChristopherHarress,ScaredbyUkraine
War,BelarusStrongmanLukashenkoMullsDitchingRussia,InternationalBusinessTimes,
January31,2015,http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-ukraine-war-belarus-strongman-lukashenko-
mulls-ditching-russia-1801070MikalaiAnishchanka,IsBelarusandRussiasBrotherlyLove
ComingtoanEnd?Guardian,May29,2015,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/belarus-russia-brotherly-love-ukraine-crisis.
141KitGillet,OppositionGroupsinMoldovaUnitetoProtestNewGovernment,NewYork
Times,January25,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/world/europe/oppositions-groups-
in-moldova-unite-to-protest-new-government.html.
142PersonalRemittances,Received(%ofGDP),database,WorldBank,
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS.
143MoldovanMigrantsDeniedRe-EntrytoRussia,DeutscheWelle,December21,2014,
http://www.dw.com/en/moldovan-migrants-denied-re-entry-to-russia/a-18144394.
144JeffreyMankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFight:AHistoryofAntagonism,ForeignAffairs,
February24,2016,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-02-24/why-russia-and-
turkey-fight.
145SelinGirit,TurkeyFacesBigLossesasRussiaSanctionsBite,BBC,January2,2016,
146IshaanTharoor,HowRussiasPutinandTurkeysErdoganWereMadeforEachOther,
WashingtonPost,December2,2014,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/12/02/how-russias-putin-and-turkeys-
erdogan-were-made-for-each-other/.
147Cengizandar,PutinSupportsErdoganinTurkey,butNotinSyria,Al-Monitor,September
24,2015,http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-russia-putin-not-supports-
erdogan-in-syria.htmlNewsConferenceFollowingStateVisittoTurkey,OfficialInternet
ResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,December1,2014,
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47126.
148Mankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFightTurkeysDowningofRussianWarplaneWhatWe
Know,BBC,December1,2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581.
149AndreyBiryukov,PutinSaysTurkishStabinBackCausedRussianWarplaneCrash,
Bloomberg,November24,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/putin-
says-turkish-stab-in-back-caused-russian-warplane-crash.
150RaziyeAkkocandRolandOliphant,VladimirPutinRefusestoSpeaktoTurkishPresident
OverAnkarasLackofApology,Telegraph,November27,2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12020980/Vladimir-Putin-refuses-to-
speak-to-Turkish-president-over-Ankaras-lack-of-apology.html.
151WorstinDecades,NoWaytoImproveforNowKremlinonRussia-TurkeyRelations,
RT,February9,2016,http://www.rt.com/news/331878-russia-turkey-relations-worst/.
152AzerbaijansEconomyinDireStraitsasOilPricesKeepTanking,Oilprice.com,January14,
2016,http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Azerbaijans-Economy-In-Dire-
Straits-As-Oil-Prices-Keep-Tanking.html.
153JackFarchy,BakuSeeksAlternativesasAzerbaijanOilProductionDeclines,Financial
Times,March12,2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b86cb5b4-be99-11e4-8036-00144feab7de
Azerbaijancountryreport,U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,
http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=AZE.
154RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty,AzerbaijanForcedtoCutBreadTaxesAfterWidespread
Protests,Guardian,January15,2016,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/azerbaijan-forced-to-cut-bread-taxes-after-
widespread-protests.
155AzerbaijanCancelsEUDelegationVisitAfterCriticismofRightsRecord,Reuters,
September11,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-azerbaijan-europe-
idUSKCN0RB1U920150911U.S.CriticizesAzerbaijanCrackdown,RadioFree
Europe/RadioLiberty,December2,2014,http://www.rferl.org/content/journalists-in-trouble-us-
criticizes-azerbaijan-crackdown/26720682.html.
156Formoreonthis,seeEugeneRumer,RichardSokolsky,andPaulStronski,U.S.Policy
TowardCentralAsia3.0,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,January25,2016.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/01/25/u.s.-policy-toward-central-asia-3.0/it2s.
157Ibid.
158SydneyJ.FreedbergJr.,RussiansinSyriaBuildingA2/ADBubbleOverRegion:
Breedlove,BreakingDefense,September28,2015,
http://breakingdefense.com/2015/09/russians-in-syria-building-a2ad-bubble-over-region-
breedlove/StevenPifer,RussianNukesinCrimea?ABetterWaytoRespond,Brookings
Institution,February2,2015,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/02-russia-
nuclear-weapons-crimea-better-us-response-piferStevenErlanger,NATORatchetsUpMissile
DefenseDespiteRussianCriticism,NewYorkTimes,May5,2016,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/nato-russia-poland.html.
Senttime: 07/06/201610:31:25PM
To: eugeneRumer<[email protected]>
Gotosleep,Gene.
SentfrommyiPad
RussiasannexationofCrimeainMarch2014wasthelateststepinMoscowslongprocessofrejection
ofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder,reflectingadeeplyheldviewthatisunlikelytochange
anytimesoon.WesternstrategywillneedtoadjusttoRussiasconceptionofitsinterestsandprioritiesin
andaroundEurope.
Westernencroachmentonthecountryssecurity,economic,andgeopoliticalinterests,aswellason
theirholdonpowerinRussia.
politics,anddefense.ItisreinforcedbyRussianelitesconcernsabouttheinternalweaknessofthe
countryanditsdirection.Italsoservesasatoolfortheelitestomobilizethepopulationintheface
ofexternalthreats.Theelitesrecognizethatthecountryisinasystemiccrisisbutfearthatsolutions
couldprovedestabilizing.
ThelackofconfidenceintheirdefensecapabilitieshasledRussianmilitaryexpertstoconsider
strategiesforearlynuclearescalationasadeterrentandcountermeasuretotheWestsperceived
conventionalsuperiority.TheWestsplansforimprovingconventionalcapabilitiesandmissile
defensesareerodingRussianmilitaryplannersconfidenceintheirnucleardeterrent.
AsseenbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentandpoliticalelites,thesecurityenvironment
alongtheperipheryofRussiaisprecariousandaddstotheinternalchallengesfacingthecountry.
Russianplannersarebeingconfrontedwitharegionrifewithinstability,localconflicts,andforeign
powerstheyviewascompetingwithoropenlyhostiletoRussiaineverystrategicdirection.
Inthisenvironment,Russiaisresortingtoanarrayoftoolsfromnuclearsaberrattlingtointimidation
ofsmaller,weakerneighborstoinformationwarfare,cyberoperations,subversion,bribery,and
otherpoliticalandeconomicmeasuresasmeansofhybridwarfareorcontinuationofpoliticsbyall
availablemeans.
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsfornotonlythosecountries
butalsoArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,andMoldova.LackingtheNorthAtlanticTreaty
Organizations(NATOs)securityguarantee,thesesixbattlegroundstatesremaininwhatMoscow
perceivesasitssphereofprivilegedinterests.Itispreparedtousemilitaryforcetokeeptheminit.
AstheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearena
forEast-Westcompetition.
Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthatMoscowstill
takesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriously,andthatitisnotpreparedto
testthatguaranteedirectly.RussianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventGeorgiaandUkrainefrom
eventuallyastheysawitjoiningNATO.RatherthanchallengeNATOdirectly,Moscowwill
continuetorelyonitswidearrayofhybridwarfaremethodstounderminememberstates
confidenceinthealliance.
Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrentcapabilities
inthefrontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.
NATOsactionsintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis,intendedtoshoreupthefrontlinestates,
havetriggereddisproportionateRussianresponses,includingdeploymentofanti-accessandarea-
denial(A2/AD)capabilitiestoCrimeaandKaliningradaswellasthreatstodeploynuclear
weaponsthere.
AbsentmajorchangesinRussias(orNATOs)outlook,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremaina
keyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakea
political,notamilitary,solutiontoresolvethisstandoff.
Introduction
TheannexationofCrimeabyRussiainMarch2014andtheundeclaredwaragainstUkrainethatfollowed
markedtheendofthepostColdWarperiodinEuropeanhistory.Russianactionshavedestroyedkey
elementsofboththepostColdWarsecuritysystemandthepostWorldWarIIsecuritysysteminEurope
thathadsurvivedfornearlythree-quartersofacentury.ThedamagedonebyRussianactionsisdeepand
lasting,withpre-andpost-UkraineembodyingacleardividinglineinEuropeansecurityaffairs.Anew
geopoliticaldivisionofEuropehasemergedaswell.PuttingthepiecesbacktogetherinUkraineand
shoringupaunitedEuropewillstretchU.S.capabilities.Thesetwinchallengeswillremainastrategic
imperativeforU.S.policymakersabsentamajorshiftinRussianpositionswithrespecttoEuropean
securityahighlyunlikelyoccurrencewithoutachangeinthecountrysleadershipandgoverning
ideology.
RussianactionsinUkraineandelsewhereinEuropehaveshockedbothEuropeanandU.S.national
securityandforeignpolicyestablishments.Few,ifany,analystsoneithersideoftheAtlantichadpredicted
thatMoscowwouldmovetodestroywhatwasenvisionedattheendoftheColdWarasEuropewhole,
free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors.1RussianactionsagainstUkrainecameasasurpriseeven
formanyseasonedRussianforeignpolicyobservers.2Thedecisiontoseizeandsubsequentlyannex
CrimeaandtolaunchthewarineasternUkraineinsupportofRussian-inspiredseparatistswasmostlikely
partofaspontaneous,panickyresponsebyMoscowtotherapidlychangingpoliticalenvironmentin
Ukraineratherthananelementofalong-term,well-thought-out,deliberatestrategy.3
However,acarefulexaminationofRussiasownnarrativeaboutEuropeanandEurasiansecurity,andits
evolutionsincetheendoftheColdWar,suggeststhatRussianactionsinUkrainewereentirelylogical,
perhapseveninevitable,asanextensionofRussianthreatperceptions.AsseenfromMoscow,therapid
changesinUkrainianpoliticsthecollapseofthepresidencyofViktorYanukovychandthecomingto
powerofapoliticalcoalitionadvocatingUkrainespro-EuropeanandEuro-Atlanticorientation,including
eventualmembershipintheEuropeanUnion(EU)andtheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)
carriedwiththemprofoundgeopoliticalconsequencesforRussia:theysignaledtheemergenceofnew
threatstoRussiassecurityrightatitsdoorstep,threatsthatnoRussianleaderislikelytotoleratewithouta
wholesalechangeinthecountrysideologyandunderstandingofitsnationalsecurity.
FromMoscowsperspective,itsactionsinUkrainerepresentedquintessentiallyaseriesofnecessary
defensive,ratherthanoffensiveandexpansionist,measuresthatwereintendedtopreventanevenmore
severegeopoliticalimbalanceonthecontinentresultingfromNATOandEUexpansionintoCentraland
EasternEurope.Attherootoftheseactionswasasenseofvulnerabilityratherthanconfidencein
MoscowsrelationswiththeWest.Ironically,thesecurityenvironmentaroundtheperipheryofRussiathat
hasemergedasaresultoftheannexationofCrimeaandthesubsequentaggressionagainstUkraine
undoubtedlyleavesRussianmilitaryplannerswithagreatersenseofvulnerability.
ThepeacefulendoftheColdWaranddissolutionoftheSovietUnionin1991signaledthedawnofanew
erainEuropeansecurity.Aftertheideologicalandmilitarystandoffthathaddividedthecontinentformore
thanfourdecades,EuropeincludingRussiawascomingtogetheronthebasisofanewvision,
embracedbyallasthefoundationforanewsecurityorder.
Thatsecurityorder,describedbyWesternleadersasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors,wouldnotrelyonsuchfamiliarconceptsasbalanceofpowerorbalanceofintereststo
maintainpeaceonthecontinent.ItwouldinsteadrelyonallEuropeannationsincludingRussia
maintainingacommitmenttosharedvaluesandadherencetoasetofkeyprinciplestoguidetheirforeign
andsecuritypolicies.Theseprincipleswererespectingtheindependence,sovereignty,andterritorial
integrityofallnationsrefrainingfromusingforcetosettleinternationaldisputesallowingfreedomof
choicebyallstatestopursuetheirforeignpoliciesandenterintoalliancesanddemonstratingrespectfor
fundamentalhumanrightsandpersonalfreedomsinstatesdomesticpoliticalarrangements.
NoneofthesecommitmentsundertakenbyallEuropeannationsincludingRussiawerenew.Theyhad
theirantecedentsintheUnitedNations(UN)charterattheendofWorldWarII,aswellasmorerecently
inthe1975HelsinkiFinalAct.4Asiftounderscoretheircommitmentsandrenewthemforthenewera,
theheadsofstateorgovernmentofallEuropeannations,Canada,andtheUnitedStatescametogetherin
1990tosigntheCharterofParisforaNewEurope.5Inthatdocument,theywelcomedtheneweraof
democracy,peaceandunityinEuropeand,amongotherthings,pledgedtosettledisputesbypeaceful
meansanddefenddemocraticinstitutionsagainstactivitieswhichviolatetheindependence,sovereign
equalityorterritorialintegrityoftheparticipatingStates.
TheCharterofPariswasjoinedbytheSovietUnion,whosecommitmentswereassumedbyRussiaupon
itsdissolutionin1991.UkraineandotherformerSovietstatesalsojoinedtheOrganizationforSecurity
andCooperationinEurope,whichwasestablishedtoimplementthevisionoftheCharterofParis.
AnothermajorstepintheevolutionofEuropewasthesigningin1992oftheMaastrichtTreaty.6Itwasa
milestoneintheprocessofEuropeanintegrationalsoonthebasisofsharedvaluesthattransformed
theEuropeanCommunityintotheEuropeanUnion.TheEUwouldpursuethegoalsofpromotingand
strengtheningdemocraticinstitutions,establishingamonetaryunion,anddevelopingacommonforeignand
securitypolicy.
TheSovietUnionandsubsequentlyRussiaplayedessentialrolesinthistransformationoftheEuropean
securitylandscape,havingconsentedtoshedtheouterandinnerempirespeacefullyinthelate1980sand
early1990s.Atthetime,boththeSovietgovernmentandthegovernmentofthenewRussianstate
declaredanddemonstratedindeedtheircommitmenttoupholdtheunderlyingprinciplesofEuropean
securityandstability.
EarlySignsofTrouble
However,whiletherestofthecontinentcelebratedthedawnofanewpeacefulandharmoniouserain
EuropeanhistoryandembracedthevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors,Russiawashavingsecondthoughts.TheideaofaEuropeansecuritysystembasedonavague
conceptofsharedvaluesdidnotsitwellwiththeRussianforeignpolicyandsecurityestablishment.Thus,
speakingataforeignministryconferencedevotedtoadiscussionofanewforeignpolicyconceptofthe
RussianFederation,thenforeignministerAndreyKozyrevdeclaredthatRussiamustbecomeanormal
greatpower.7ThechairmanoftheForeignAffairsCommitteeoftheRussianDuma,Yevgeniy
Ambartsumov,welcomedtheforeignministersproposalandwentfurther,declaringthatthetimehad
cometoabandonidealisticdeclarationsinfavorofrealpolitik.8
AlthoughtheRussiangovernmentwaspreoccupiedatthetimewithaseeminglyendlesssuccessionof
domesticcrisesthatfollowedthedissolutionoftheSovietUnion,includingacollapsingeconomyand
fiercepoliticalstruggleintheRussianparliament,wherethereformagendaranintostrongopposition,the
Russianforeignpolicyestablishmentarticulatedamoreambitiousvisionofthestatesintereststhanthe
direstateofRussiasdomesticpoliticsandeconomymighthavesuggested.Insharpcontrasttohisearlier
conciliatorystatements,AmbartsumovexplicitlylaidclaimtoRussiasspecialrights,evenresponsibilities,
throughouttheterritoriesoftheformerSovietstatesandsuggestedthatRussianintereststranscendedthe
bordersofthesenewlyindependentstates.9SergeyKaraganov,aleadingforeignpolicyscholarand
founderoftheCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,wroteinasimilarveinthatRussiahadnotjustaset
ofinterests,butaspecialmissionaheavycrosstobearintheterritoriesoftheformerSoviet
Union.10
RussiahadinheriteditsnationalsecurityestablishmentfromtheSovietUnion.Ambartsumov,Kozyrev,
andKaraganovrepresentedanewgenerationofforeignpolicythinkersandpractitionerswithrelatively
progressiveattitudeswhocouldhavebeenexpectedtoholdmoreenlightenedviewsonrelationswith
neighboringstatesandthepostColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.ButtheRussianmilitary,
securityservices,anddiplomaticestablishmentwereallproductsoftheColdWarinwhichmistrustofthe
WestwasdeepandnoteasilyovercomebydeclarationsofpeacefulintentionsbyEuropeanandU.S.
leaders.11
TheseearlysignalsthatsharedvaluesmaynotbesufficientforRussiaasthebasisforEuropeansecurity
andstabilitycouldhaveremainedalargelyinconsequentialdiscourseintherelativelynarrowandself-
containedcommunityofRussianforeignpolicyexperts.Foreignpolicyinthe1990stookabackseatto
domesticaffairs,especiallytheeconomy,whichwasthedominantconcernofthecountryselitesandthe
generalpublic.However,thedebatewasbroughttotheforeofRussiandomesticpoliticsandEuropean
discussionsaboutthecontinentssecurityarchitecturebytwocriticallyimportantprocesses:enlargement
oftheEUandNATO.
Thefirstmajorencountersignalingfuturetroublestookplacein1993.DuringanAugustmeetingwiththen
PolishpresidentLechWasainWarsaw,thenRussianpresidentBorisYeltsininawrittenstatement
expressedhisunderstandingofPolandsdesiretojoinNATO.12Kozyrevreportedlyechoedthat
sentimentdespitehavingbeenopposedtotheideapreviously.However,justafewweekslater,in
October1993,theRussianpresidentsentalettertothenU.S.presidentBillClintonstatinghisstrong
oppositiontomembershipintheallianceforPolandoranyotherCentralorEasternEuropeancountry.13
YeltsinsapparentchangeofpositionwasreportedlyduetopressurefromtheRussianmilitary
establishment,whichstillconsideredNATOathreat.14
ThelaunchofanactivediscussioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesaboutNATOenlargementtransformed
theinitialcracksintheEuropeansecuritylandscapeintoamajordividebetweenRussiaandmostofthe
restofEurope.NATOalliesandaspirantsmaintainedthatexpandingthealliancewasintendednotasa
hostilestepagainstRussia,butthatbringingthezoneofstabilityandsecurityclosertoRussiasborder
wouldonlybenefitMoscow.Russiancounterargumentswerepreciselytheopposite,stressingthemilitary
capabilitiesthatNATOexpansionwouldinevitablybringclosertoRussianborders.(SeeRussian
governmentthinktankmapsshowingNATOenlargementinfigures1and2.)
RussianoppositiontoNATOenlargementwassharedbypoliticiansacrossthepoliticalspectrum.The
conservativewingofRussianpoliticsrepresentedbythenationalistsandtheCommunistsopposedthe
alliancesexpansionforgeopoliticalandideologicalreasons.Theliberalsandreformersopposedit
becausetheysawitasdamagingtotheiralreadytenuouspositioninRussiandomesticpolitics,vulnerable
tocriticismfromopponentswhoaccusedthemofbetrayingRussiannationalinterestandbeingagentsof
theWest.15
AfterbeingcutofffromWesternpoliticalsciencefordecades,Russianinternationalrelationsscholars
wereavidlyabsorbingideasputforthbyleadingWesternpoliticalscientists.Themostprominentamong
themwereSamuelHuntingtonandZbigniewBrzezinski,whosebooksTheClashofCivilizationsand
theRemakingofWorldOrderandTheGrandChessboardrespectivelyapproachedcontemporary
internationalrelationsfrompointsofviewthatrejectedtheveryideaofavalues-basedsecuritysystemin
EuropeandEurasia.16Huntingtonsvolume,asthetitlesuggests,predictedaconflictpittingWestern
civilizationanditsliberalideologyagainstothercivilizationsguidedbyotherideas.Brzezinskiarguedthatit
wasimportantfortheUnitedStatestopreventanothermajorpowerreadRussiafromdominatingthe
Eurasianlandmass.
TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposedNATOs
interventioninYugoslaviaas,amongotherreasons,a
potentialprecedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussia
orarounditsperiphery.18
InlightofthesetwobooksbyleadingAmericanforeignpolicythinkerswidelyregardedinRussiaas
speakingforWashingtonsforeignpolicyestablishment,itwaseasyforRussianforeignandnational
securitypolicymakers,manyofthemproductsoftheColdWar,tobeskepticalofU.S.andallies
reassurancesaboutvalues-basedsecurityarrangementsforEuropeandEurasia.WhiletheideaofNATO
extendingitsmembershipbeyondEuropewasnotbroughtupeveninthemostambitiousdiscussionsof
thealliancesfutureatthetime,NATOdidextenditsreachintoCentralAsiathroughitsPartnershipfor
Peaceprogram.17ThatcouldhavebeeninterpretedbyRussianmilitaryplannersasamaneuvertoencircle
Russia,notwithstandingthefactthatRussiaitselfhadjoinedthePartnershipforPeace.
AnotherfactorshapingRussianthreatperceptionswithrespecttoNATOandEuropeansecuritywasthe
conflictintheformerYugoslavia.ForRussia,stillreelingfromthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionand
strugglingtoovercomemultiplepoliticalandeconomicchallenges,theviolentbreakupofYugoslaviawasa
continuingreminderofthedangersithadbarelyescaped.TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposed
NATOsinterventioninYugoslaviaas,amongotherreasons,apotentialprecedentforsimilaractionby
NATOinRussiaorarounditsperiphery.18TheRussianmilitarysbrutaltacticsduringthe19941996war
inChechnyadrewwidespreadcondemnationfromtheWest.ThepossibilityofaNATOinterventioninthe
breakawayrepublic,nomatterhowimprobabletomostseasonedobservers,wasnonethelesswidely
discussedinRussia.19
humanitarianconsiderationsonlyreinforcedRussianoppositiontothecampaignandresistancetoNATOs
enlargement.FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theextraditionandtrialofthe
formerYugoslavstrongmanSlobodanMiloeviundoubtedlyservedasareminderthatatsomefuture
timeaweakenedRussiangovernmentcouldbeforcedtosurrendertheleadersofthemilitarycampaignin
Chechnyaandthattheywouldfindthemselvesontrialforwarcrimesbeforeaninternationaltribunal.20
FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theonlyguaranteeagainstsucheventswasthe
vastnucleararsenalRussiahadinheritedfromtheSovietUnion.Russiannationalsecuritydocumentsfrom
the1990sonwardhavestressedtheuniqueroleofnuclearweaponsastheultimateperhapseventhe
onlyguaranteeofRussiansovereigntyandstrategicindependence.21
ButalthoughnuclearweaponswereindispensableasaguaranteeagainstWesterninterventioninRussia,
theywerefarlessusefulwhenitcametointerveningincrisesbeyondRussiasbordersandprojecting
Moscowsinterestsbeyondtheborders.Thenucleararsenalwasoflittleusewhenitcametodeterring
NATOenlargementeverclosertoRussianbordersandsecuringasphereofinfluenceforRussiaaround
itsperipheryalong-standingRussianobjectivearticulatedasearlyas1992byleadingRussianforeign
policythinkersandpractitioners.Forthat,Russiawouldhavetorebuilditsconventionalcapabilities,
whichinturnwouldrequireacommitmentofsignificanteconomicresources.
AStrongWarning
Duringthefirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,Russiaenjoyedamajoreconomicrebound.Inthe
decadefromthefinancialcollapseof1998totheendofVladimirPutinssecondpresidentialtermin
2008,Russiangrossdomesticproduct(GDP)grewfromjustunder$300billiontonearly$1.7trillionin
currentprices.22Astheeconomyreboundedanddomesticpoliticsstabilized,theRussiangovernment
assumedafarmoreprominentpositionintheinternationalarenathanduringthe1990s.Russiabecamea
full-fledgedmemberoftheG8industrializedeconomiesandasserteditselfasastrongandindependent
voiceonmajorissues,fromEuropeansecuritytothewarinIraq.
ThemostnotableandforcefulstatementonforeignandsecuritypolicyfromthatperiodcamefromPutin
personally,deliveredattheMunichSecurityConferencein2007.Thespeech,describedbysomeinthe
audienceasColdWarlike,clearlylaidoutRussianrejectionofthepostColdWarsecurityorderin
Europe.23TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATOenlargementasaprovocativeunilaterallandgrab
bytheU.S.-ledallianceseekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.Inputtingitsmilitaryforcesrightupto
Russiasborder,Putinsaid,NATOwasinviolationofassurancesgiventoRussiaattheendoftheCold
War.Thisunilateral,unipolar,U.S.-centricsecuritymodel,heconcluded,wasunacceptable.
enlargementwasnotonlyalandgrabthatupsetthegeopoliticalbalanceinEurope,butitalsoconstituteda
violationofassurancesgivenbyWesternleaderstothenSovietpresidentMikhailGorbachevthatin
exchangeforGermanysreunificationandNATOmembership,thealliancewouldnotexpandeastward.24
Thenatureofthisclaimhasbeenrepeatedlydisputed.25Anddocumentaryevidencetosupportithas
beenambiguousatbesttosaynothingofitspracticalirrelevance,fornobody,notevenRussianofficials,
proposestoundoNATOenlargement.Still,theideathattheWestbrokeitspromisehasbecomean
integralpartofRussiandiscussionsaboutpostColdWarsecurityinEurope.
TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATOenlargement
asaprovocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-led
allianceseekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.
RussianleadersopposedEuropespostColdWarsecurityorderalsoonideologicalgrounds.They
criticizedU.S.andEuropeaneffortstopromotedemocracyaroundtheperipheryofRussiaasathinly
disguisedpursuitoftheWestsexpandedsphereofinfluence.26Theyalsoviewedtheeffortsasadeeply
destabilizingundertakingthatthreatenedthestabilityandsecurityofneighboringstatesandevenheldout
thepossibilityofunderminingRussiasownhard-wondomesticstability.Beyondthat,thepushbythe
WesttopromotedemocracyinsideRussiawasdeclaredbyRussianleadersasaviolationofRussian
sovereigntyandpotentiallydestabilizinganddeeplythreateningtothePutinadministrationitself.
AsRussiasowndomesticpoliticstookonamoreauthoritarianturnandPutinconsolidatedmorepower,
hecameundercriticismfromWesternleaders.27CombinedwithenthusiasticWesternexpressionsof
supportfortheRoseRevolutioninGeorgiain2003andtheOrangeRevolutioninUkrainein20042005
bothcrisesinwhichRussiaandtheWestwerepittedagainsteachotherthroughproxyfactionsthe
Westssupportfordemocracythroughtheever-expandingreachoftheEUandNATOemergedasthe
mostcontentiousissueinrelationswithRussia.BuildingonthemajorthemeofhisMunichaddress,Putin
deliveredafurtherwarningtoNATOatthealliances2008Bucharestsummit.NATOspromiseoffuture
membershiptoGeorgiaandUkraine,hesaid,constitutedadirectthreattoRussiansecurity.Inan
ominouspreviewoffutureevents,hespokeofthehistorictiesbetweenRussiaandtheethnicRussian
populationsofeasternUkraineandCrimeaandthepopulationsdesireforclosetieswiththe
motherland.28
AsiftheRussianpresidentstwowarningswerenotenough,thewarwithGeorgiain2008sentafurther
messagetotheWest,aswellastoRussiasneighbors,thatPutinmeantwhathesaid.Inastatementon
RussiantelevisionintheimmediateaftermathofthewarinGeorgia,thenpresidentDmitryMedvedev
declaredcountriesaroundRussiasperipheryasasphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.29No
statementdeliveredbyaRussianleaderpriortothewarof2008hadsignaledwithgreaterclarity
Moscowsrejectionofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEurope.Medvedevwoulddividethecontinent
intospheresofinterestsandinfluence,andhewasfullycommittedtodefendRussiasspherefrom
encroachmentbyotherpowers.
ThewarinGeorgiadeliveredtwoverydistinctmessagestotwodifferentaudiences.TotheWest,the
messagewastostayoutofthesphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.ToRussia,themessagewasthat
despitethesuccessfulcampaignagainstitstinyneighbor,theRussianmilitarywasinneedoffar-reaching
reform.30Russianeededthecapabilitybeyonditsnucleararsenaltodefenditsinterestsanddeterthose
whomightconsiderinfringingonthem.ThemilitaryreformlaunchedintheaftermathofthewarinGeorgia
andaprogramofmilitarymodernizationwereintendedtogiveRussiathecapabilitytodojustthat.31
TheBreak
The20082012interregnumbetweenPutinssecondandthirdtermsaspresidentwasaperiodofrelative
calminRussiasrelationswiththeWest.CombinedwiththeresetwithRussiabeginningin2009bythe
administrationofU.S.PresidentBarackObama,otherimperativesthewarinAfghanistan,Irans
nuclearprogram,thecrisisinLibyatookprecedenceoverNATOenlargement.Atthesametime,newly
launcheddebatesinsideRussiaaboutdomesticpoliticalandeconomicmodernizationheldoutthe
prospectofRussiareturningtothepathofdemocratizationandamorecooperativerelationshipwiththe
West.32Inaddition,NATOlackedthenecessaryconsensustopushforGeorgiasmembershipinthe
allianceintheaftermathofthewarof2008.Andin2010,UkraineremovedNATOmembershipfromits
listofnationalsecurityprioritiesaltogether.33
ThecalmwasbrokenbydevelopmentsinsideRussia.Putinsdecisiontoreclaimthepresidencyfrom
Medvedevwasmetwithlarge-scaleprotestsunprecedentedinthehistoryofmodernRussiaby
proponentsoffurtherpoliticalandeconomicreformsthathadbeendebatedduringMedvedevs
presidency.34TheprotestsweregreetedintheWestasamanifestationofRussiasdemocraticspiritand
politicalreawakening.35
TheresponsefromthePutinadministrationwasharsh.Itincludedaseriesofnewlegislativestepstolimit
theRussianpublicsspaceforpoliticalprotestscourtactionsagainstprotestersandamediacampaign
accusingtheWestofinstigatingprotestsinRussiatoundermineandweakenit.36TheWestwaspromoting
inRussiavaluesthatwerealientoRussiansociety,theKremlincharged,embracingthesloganRussiais
notEurope.37PutinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionofRussiavs.theWestasaconflict
drivenbydifferentvaluessystems.TwodecadesaftersigningontothevisionofEuropewhole,free,and
atpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiafinallyabandonedit.
Russiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvalues
systems.
ThisbreakalsomanifesteditselfinRussianforeignpolicy,particularlyinrelationswiththeformerSoviet
states.BuildingonearlierRussianpronouncementsaboutasphereofinfluenceandinterests,andthe
dangerposedbytheWestsgeopoliticalexpansion,PutinelevatedEurasianintegrationthegatheringof
theformerSovietstatesaroundRussiatothetopofhisforeignpolicyagendaforhisthirdterm.38
BuildingontheRussia-Kazakhstan-Belaruscustomsunionestablishedin2000,Putinproposedtomove
towardaCommonEconomicSpace,eventuallyproceedingtoapoliticalEurasianunion,allvaguely
patternedontheEUandrathertransparentlyintendedtocreatearegionalcounterweighttoit.InPutins
words,theEurasianunionwouldbecomeapowerfulsupranationalassociationcapableofbecomingone
ofthepolesinthemodernworldareferencetothelong-standingRussianpreferenceforamultipolar
internationalsystemandrejectionoftheU.S.-dominatedunipolarworld.39
AssociationAgreements.40Theseagreementsaredesignedtopromotepolitical,economic,andrule-of-
lawreformsincountriesofEasternEuropeandencouragetheircloserpoliticalandcommercialtiestothe
EU.SeveralEasternEuropeancountriesArmenia,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainewereinthe
processofnegotiatingAssociationAgreementswiththeEUwhenPutinannouncedhisvisionofEurasian
integration.UkrainewasthelargestamongthemandstrategicallythemostimportantforRussia.
ThegovernmentofUkrainethesecondmostpopulousformerSovietrepublicandthecriticalbridge
betweenRussiaandEuropewasengagedintwosimultaneousnegotiations.OnewaswithRussiaabout
joiningitseconomicintegrationprojecttheotherwaswiththeEUaboutanAssociationAgreement.With
thetwodeemedincompatible,Kyivwouldeventuallyhavetochooseoneortheother.41
ForRussia,forPutinpersonally,thelossofUkrainetotheEUwouldnotbeatolerableoutcome.This
wasduetoseveralreasons.In2004,PutinscandidateforthepresidencyofUkraine,ViktorYanukovych,
wasdefeatedbytheOrangeRevolutionencouragedbytheWest.Anotherdefeatofsimilarmagnitudeat
thehandsoftheEUwasnotanoptionfortheRussianpresidentafterhehadelevatedEurasianintegration
tothetopofhispolicyagendaasacounterweighttotheUnitedStatesandtheEU.
Moreover,allformerSovietsatellitesthathadjoinedtheEUalsojoinedNATO.UkrainesAssociation
AgreementwiththeEUwasundoubtedlyseenbytheKremlinasasteptowardmembershipintheEU
and,eventually,inNATO.ThiswouldallowNATOspresencewithin300milesofMoscow.Asseen
fromMoscow,thiswouldalsomeanthatkeyUkrainiandefenseenterprisesthatsuppliedtheRussian
militarywithcriticalcomponentswouldbelocatedonNATOterritory.42
AnothersignificantdependenceofRussiaonUkrainehastodowithenergysuppliestoEurope.Ukraineis
thecriticaltransitcountry,withasmuchashalfofRussiangasexportedtoEuropedeliveredthroughthe
DruzhbapipelinethatcrossesUkraine.43U.S.andEuropeanleadershavelongcomplainedabout
EuropesdependenceonRussiangasandtheinfluenceitgivesMoscowoverthecontinent.Somehave
arguedforNATOtotakeonthemissionofsecuringEuropesenergysupply.44ForRussia,theprospect
ofUkrainejoiningNATOorbecomingasatelliteoftheEUwouldtranslateintoanunacceptablelossof
powerandinfluence.
Notwithstandingallthesestrategicconsiderations,thecrisisinUkraineapparentlycameasasurprisefor
theKremlin.45TheseverityofitsresponsetothecrisistheannexationofCrimea,thewarineastern
Ukraine,thevirulentpoliticalpropagandacampaignagainstthenewgovernmentofUkraineandtheWest
forsupportingit,andthedestructionoftheentirepostColdWarEuropeansecuritysystemreflectthe
perceptionsofthreatassociatedbyRussiannationalsecurityelitewiththepotentiallossofUkraineto
NATOandtheEU.
TheNewOldThreat
actionsinUkraine(andsubsequentlyinSyria)haveamountedtoafundamentalreassessmentofRussia,its
militarycapabilities,anditsresolvetousethem.46TheperceptionofRussiaasasecond-ratepower,
whosemilitarycapabilitieswerebadlydamagedbytheimplosionoftheSovietstateandneverrecovered,
hasbeenreplacedwithnewlyalarmedassessmentsoftheRussianmilitarythreatnotseenbyWestern
publicsinageneration.47EventheRussianNavy,longwrittenofffordeadasapresenceinthehighseas,
isthesubjectofanew,widelypublicizedreportbytheU.S.OfficeofNavalIntelligence.48
operationineasternUkraine,andmostrecentlythemissioninSyriahavehadatransformationaleffecton
theimageoftheRussianmilitaryabroadandathome.However,withtheseaccomplishmentsonandoff
thebattlefieldcameaseriesofsoberingRussianreassessmentsofthenewsecurityenvironment
surroundingRussiainpost-postColdWarEuropeandEurasia.
Paradoxically,Russianmilitarysuccesseshaveresultedinnewthreatsandnewchallenges,andtheyhave
generatedaprofoundfeelingofuneaseamongRussianmilitaryexperts.Threatassessmentsfoundin
officialRussiandocuments,statementsoftopofficials,andprivate-sectorcommentatorsdescribea
uniformlybleakpicture.Inthewordsofoneauthoritativeobserver,Europesfailuretosecureitselfbehind
abufferzoneestablishedwiththehelpoftheEUsEasternPartnership,whichincludesArmenia,
Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkraine,hasmeantthatRussiacannothidebehindabuffer
zoneeither.49RussiacannolongercountonthesecountriesasfriendlyandcapableofshieldingRussias
westernandsouthernborders.
ThebreakinrelationswiththeWestNATOscontinuingplansforexpansion,itssupportforUkraine,its
militarydeploymentsalongitsEasternflankandplansformoresuchdeployments,anditslong-standing
nuclearthreattoRussiaandcentersforcybersecurityandinformationwarfareintheBalticstatesmake
upthenewthreatenvironmentRussiandefenseplannersarehavingtoconfront.Andthatisnoteventhe
completelist,whichomitsawiderangeofrealandpotentialthreatsfromtheself-proclaimedIslamic
StatespresenceinIraqandSyriatoJapansnewlegislationgoverningtheuseofitsSelf-DefenseForces
abroad.ThisisthenewthreatenvironmentinwhichthearmedforcesoftheRussianstatehavetocarry
outtheirmissionofdefendingandprotectingthesovereigntyoftheRussianstate,notedDefenseMinister
SergeiShoigu,appearingbeforetheyear-endmeetingofseniorMinistryofDefenseofficialsattendedby
Putin.50
ThenewNationalSecurityStrategythatPutinsignedintolawonDecember31,2015,echoedmanyof
thesamethemes.51ThedocumentidentifiedtheUnitedStatesanditsalliesastheprincipalthreatto
Russia,astheWestseekstohangontoitsdominantpositionintheworld.NATOenlargementcontinues
apace,withtheallianceaspiringtoaglobalmission.NATO,accordingtothenewdocument,undermines
internationalsecurity,internationallaw,andarms-controltreatiesacquiresnewmilitarycapabilitiesand
deploysitsmilitaryinfrastructureeverclosertotheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,threateningits
security.InUkraine,thedocumentcontinues,NATOandtheEUhavesupportedanunconstitutionalcoup
thattriggeredaprofoundsplitinUkrainiansocietyandresultedinanewsourceofinstabilityinEurope.
ThisisallpartandparcelofU.S.strategyinEurasia,accordingtothenowdeceasedheadofRussian
militaryintelligence,GeneralIgorSergun.52Writingin2015,heassertedthatthelong-termU.S.goalwas
toencircleRussiaandChinawitharingofregimesloyaltotheUnitedStatesandflashpointsthatwould
reliablypreventRussiafromcarryingoutitsEurasianintegrationproject.
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandtodateandin
thefuturehavebrokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythealliesnottostationpermanently
substantialcombatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembers.Regardlessofthecaveatthatthepromise
wasconditionedonthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironment,whichwasupendedbythe
annexationofCrimeaandaggressionineasternUkrainetherecanbelittledoubtthatthereinforcements
areperceivedbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentasitsworstexpectationscomingtrue.53Whether
thesereinforcementswillconstituteapermanentorpersistentpresenceislikelytobeoflittleconsequence
forRussiananalysts,foreitheronewouldconstituteacontinuousandineffectpermanentmilitarypresence
ofNATOtroopsintheseforwardareas.
ItstheEconomy...
unofficialspokesmen,iscompoundedbytheunenviablestateofitseconomy.54Gonearethehighratesof
growthtypicalofthefirsttwotermsofthePutinpresidencythatmadepossibletherecoveryofthe
countryseconomichealthaswellasitsinternationalstandingandmilitarycapabilities.Theinabilityofthe
Russianeconomytocompeteintheglobalmarketplaceanditsrelianceontheoldmodelofdevelopment
basedonexportsofrawmaterialshavebeenelevatedinthenewnationalsecuritystrategytotherankof
themainstrategicthreatsto[Russias]nationalsecurityinthesphereoftheeconomy.55Thetasknow
beforeRussianpolicymakersistodevelopanewmodelofeconomicgrowth,fortheoldonehasoutlived
itsusefulness.ThisthemehasbeenstressedbytopofficialsinRussia,includingKremlinChiefofStaff
SergeiIvanov,who,withcandorrareforaseniorKremlinofficial,admittedthatthecountryseconomic
woeswereduelargelytofailuretoreformduringthefatyears.56SecurityCouncilSecretaryNikolai
Patrushev,too,hasstressedtheneedtojump-starttheRussianeconomyasamatterofnationalsecurity.57
allies.
Russianforeignpolicyandnationalsecurityexpertsfromresearchinstitutesandacademiahaveechoedthe
samesenseofalarmaboutnewchallengesfacingRussiaasfoundinofficialgovernmentstatementsand
documents.Theyhavestressedtheincreasinglychaotic,seeminglyall-against-allnatureoftheinternational
systemandtheweakeningofthemaincentersofglobalpower,includingtheUnitedStatesandEurope.58
However,thatishardlyacauseforcelebration,forRussiaisfindingitselfwithoutreliablepartnersinthis
situation(therelationshipwithChinaistreatedwithcautioninthiscontexttimewilltellhowitturns
out).59AsaresultoftheUkrainecrisisandthebreakwiththeWest,Russiahasbeenleft,asCarnegies
DmitriTreninputit,aloneagainstall.60
Furthermore,Russiananalystshavearguedthatbytheendof2015,Russiawasinanall-encompassing,
systemiccrisis.61Thebiggestblowwasdealtbythecollapseinoilpricesandtheendoftheglobal
commoditiesboom.MakingmattersworsewasacombinationofshrinkingGDP,chroniclackof
investment,currencydevaluation,lossofaccesstoWesterncapitalmarkets,andhighinflation.The
politicalenvironmentwasnobetter,duetotheescalationofmilitaryactivitiesabroad,theintensifying
crackdownontheopposition,andthemurderofoppositionpoliticianBorisNemtsov.
Takentogether,thesewereallsignsoffundamentalproblemsforapoliticalleadershipthatwassteadfastly
resistingcomprehensivereforms.Stagnationandthefailuretocarryoutfar-reachingeconomic,political,
andtechnologicalmodernizationcouldhavemajorsecurityimplications.Withoutreforms,Karaganov
warnedatthegatheringoftheestablishmentCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,defeatawaits
[Russia]inthefuturepolitical,economic,andmilitary-strategiccompetitionofthetwenty-firstcentury.62
HermanGref,theheadofthemajoritystate-ownedbiggestRussianbankSberbank,echoedthesewords
inearly2016,when,speakingatapublicgatheringofeconomistsandseniorgovernmentofficials,he
describedRussiaasalosercountry.63
NoLightattheEnd
TheseandothersimilarlygloomyassessmentsthathavepermeatedtheentirespectrumofRussianpolitical
opinion,fromofficialgovernmentdocumentsandestablishmentfigurestoscholarsatresearchinstitutions
tooppositionfigures,pointtoaprofoundsenseofinsecurityinRussiasestablishmentcircles.64Goneis
theconfidenceofthefirsttwopresidentialtermsofVladimirPutin.TheearlybravuraresponsetoWestern
sanctionsanddeclarationsthatRussianindustrycanmorethanmakeupforthelossofimportedgoods
andgrowthankstoimportsubstitutionandthecheaperRussianrublehavebeenderidedasdelusional.65
SomeofthemostalarmistcommentatorsgosofarastoclaimthattheRussianeconomyisbacksliding
intothecategoryofindustrialandevenpreindustrialeconomies,rapidlyfallingbehindtothepointwhere
onedayitcouldceasetobeanindependentactorintheinternationalarena.66Asasignoftheprevailing
gloomamongRussianeconomicanalysts,includingseniorgovernmentofficials,theendofthecurrent
economiccrisis,whichsomebelieveRussiaisalreadyapproaching,maynotleadtogrowthinstead,inthe
wordsofthefirstdeputychairoftheCentralBankofRussia,XeniaYudayeva,itwillmarkthebeginning
ofeternalorlong-termstagnation.67
ThisbriefoverviewofthenarrativeinofficialRussianoutletsandsocietaldiscoursepointstoalackof
confidenceonthepartofRussianelitesintheirleadership,intheirownabilities,andinthecountrysfuture.
Thetimesoftrouble,whichmanyifnotmostRussiansoncethoughtwereleftbehindinthe1990s,appear
tobeanythingbutsafelybehindthem.RussianassessmentsofthepresentsituationinandaroundRussia
canbesummarizedinafewshortsentences:
TheRussianeconomyhasoutliveditsmodelofdevelopmentandcanatbeststagnateandstay
firmlylodgedinthemiddle-incometrapthepoliticalsystemisnotabletoaddressthetensionsthat
arebuildingwithinsociety.
Russiahasnoreliablepartnersandisfacingavastlysuperioradversarywhoseeconomyismuch
biggerandbetterperformingthanRussiasandwhosemilitaryandtechnologicalcapabilitiesarethe
envyandthetargetofRussiasownmilitaryreformanddefensemodernizationplans.
Ukraine,RussianassessmentsoftheRussianmilitaryhavebeenpermeatedbyadeepsenseofinferiority
vis--visNATO.AnauthoritativeassessmentofferedbyaleadingRussianmilitaryanalystintheaftermath
oftheactivephaseoftheconflictineasternUkrainedescribedthemilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussia
andUkraineasabattlebetweentwoobsoletemilitaries,oneofwhich(Russias)wasbettertrained,
equipped,andled.68
countrieswouldfollowaverydifferentscenario.TheRussianmilitarywouldfaceafarsuperiorenemy,
onethatisbetterequipped,bettertrained,betterled,andbettersustained.FromthesizeofNATOs
groundforcetosmartweaponsinitsarsenaltoitselectronicwarfarecapabilities,theRussianmilitary
wouldbeoutnumbered,outgunned,outdone.Russiasonlyrecourseinsuchcircumstances,theanalysis
concludes,istothreatentheadversarywithtacticalnuclearweapons.Thecountry,thearmy,andthe
navyarenotyetreadyforalarge-scaleconventional-onlywar.69
ThissenseofvulnerabilitypermeatesRussianmilitarythinkingaboutfutureconflictsandthreatassessments
astheypertaintoeverysphereofmilitaryactivityconventional,nuclear,cyberwar,andinformation
warfare.Noneofthisisnewandreflectslong-standingRussianandearlierSovietconcernsaboutthe
countrysinferiormilitarycapabilitieswhenstackedagainstNATOs.
Inrecentyears,noRussianstatementaboutsecuritypolicyhasgeneratedmorealarmintheWestthan
high-levelpronouncementsaboutRussiannuclearmodernizationandthereadinesstousenuclearweapons
intheeventofaconflictinEurope.70WidelyinterpretedinpubliccommentaryintheWestasevidenceof
Russianaggressivenessandmilitaristicambitions,thesestatementshavebeenechoedindomesticRussian
discussionsabouttheroleofnuclearweaponsinafuturewar.71
ThatwarwouldbefoughtagainsttheWest.Russia,writesSergeyBrezkun,professoroftheAcademyof
MilitarySciences,needstodevelopitsownde-escalationladderinordertolimitafutureregional
conflictatanearlystageandpreventitfromblowingupintoalarge-scalewar.72Russianleaders,he
laments,havenotadequatelyaddressedtheproblemofregionaldeterrence,whichisbecomingallthe
moreurgentbecauseofwhathecharacterizedastheweakeningofthepolitical-militarypositionsofthe
RussianFederation,proliferationontheperipheryofRussiaofhostileregimesmanipulatedbytheWest,
andthedeclineofRussiasconventionalcapabilities.Inthesecircumstances,theideaofmassivenuclear
retaliationinresponsetoaregionalcrisisisirrationalandimpractical.Russianeedsoptionsforde-
escalatingthecrisisinitsbeginningphasewiththehelpoflimitednuclearstrikesagainstkeyassetsofthe
enemy,butwithoutcatastrophicconsequences,aswellasnuclearweaponsspecificallydesignedforthis
purpose.Suchlimitednuclearstrikes,Brezkunargues,willhaveasoberingeffectontheenemy,whichwill
thenceaseanddesist.
Intheworstpossiblecase,whichtoRussianplannersis
notunimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,
nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilitiescouldprove
devastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyitthe
abilitytodeliveraretaliatorystrike.
economyanditsdefense-industrialsector.OneoftheearliestvoicestosoundalarmabouttheWests
emergingsuperiorconventionalcapabilitiesinthe1970sand1980swasMarshalNikolayOgarkov,the
chiefoftheGeneralStaff.73ThislackofconfidencemayappearsurprisingintheaftermathofRussian
militaryreform,inthemidstofaten-yeardefensemodernizationprogram,increaseddefensespending,
andtheRussianarmysstringofsuccessfuloperations.Still,U.S.andotherNATOcountriesconventional
capabilitiescontinuetoimpressRussianmilitaryobserversandfeedtheirinsecuritywithrespecttotheir
own.
Butthisdeep-seatedfeelingofinsecuritycomparedwithNATOapparentlygoesbeyondtheconventional
sphereandappliestoRussiasstrategicandtacticalnuclearcapabilitiesaswell.Intheworstpossible
case,whichtoRussianplannersisnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,nuclear,and
missiledefensecapabilitiescouldprovedevastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheabilityto
deliveraretaliatorystrike.Facedwiththishighlyimprobableprospect,Russianmilitaryplannershaveto
considerfirst-useoptionsasade-escalatorymeasurethatwillpersuadetheenemyofthefutilityofits
actions.Otherwise,ifnuclearweaponsarenotusedearlyinaconflictforthepurposeofendingit,Russia
maynotbeabletousethematallandbedefeated.
ThesamelackofconfidenceinRussianretaliatorycapabilitiesisapparentinRussiandiscussionsaboutthe
needforadoomsdaymachinelikeschemetoensureamassiveretaliatorystrikeintheeventofa
devastatingattackonRussiadiscussionsreminiscentofStanleyKubricksDr.Strangelovecharacter.74
Inanapparentlydeliberateleak,Russianmediarevealedtheexistenceofahigh-yieldunmannednuclear
torpedothatcouldbelaunchedasaretaliatoryweaponagainstamajorU.S.coastalurbancenterand
wouldresultinmassivehumanlossandeconomicdevastation.75AnotherproposalcalledforRussiato
usemassivenuclearchargestotriggercatastrophictsunamis,volcaniceruptions,orearthquakesthat
wouldcausedevastationoflargeareasoftheUnitedStatesalongtheWestcoast.76
RussianmilitaryplannersconcernsaboutthethreatofU.S.missiledefensestotheirretaliatorycapabilities
longpredatethedecisionsbytheadministrationsofObamaandhispredecessorasU.S.president,
GeorgeW.Bush,todeploymissiledefensesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.Someanalystshavegoneso
farastosaythatformerpresidentRonaldReagansStrategicDefenseInitiative(commonlycalledStar
Wars)inthe1980swasresponsibleforconvincingtheSovietPolitburothattheUnitedStatesenjoyed
vastmilitary-technologicalsuperiority.NotonlycouldtheUnitedStateslaunchasurpriseattackonthe
SovietUnion,theseanalystsconcluded,butitcouldalsoacquirethemeansofdenyingtheSovietUnion
thecapabilityofdeliveringaretaliatorystrike.77Thearmsrace,inotherwords,couldnotbewon,and
thatinturnledtotheendoftheColdWar.78
RussianconcernsaboutU.S.missiledefensecapabilitiesthusappeartohavedeeproots.Theyhavebeen
restatedwithsurprisingcandorbyRussianofficials.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairsSpecialEnvoy
GrigoryBerdennikov,replyingtoaquestioninFebruary2015aboutfuturearmscontrol,said,
Onehastounderstandthatnuclearweaponsarenotsomethingthatstandsalone,theyarepartof
thestrategicbalance.Tomoveaheadwithnuclearweaponsreductions,itisnecessarytotakeinto
accountotherfactorsfirstofall,thefactoroftheglobalmissiledefensesystem,whichthe
Americans,despiteall[our]arguments,stubbornlydonotwanttodiscusswithus....
Theentiresystemofmutualrelationsinthenuclearsphereisbasedondeterrence.Inotherwords,
youhavetohavethecapability,havingsurvivedthefirststrike,toretaliate,andinsuchawaythat
theretaliatorystrikeissoterriblethatnobodywoulddaretolaunchthefirstone.Ifaneffective
missiledefensesystemappears,thensomeonemayhavetheillusionthatmostoftheweaponsof
theenemycanbedestroyedinthefirststrikeandtherestcanbemoreorlessintercepted.The
smalleryourarsenal,theeasieritistointerceptwhatsleftafterthefirststrike.Andwearebeing
told[bytheAmericans],Wellcontinuetodevelopthesedefensivesystems,butletusreduce
furthertheoffensivesystems.Forwhat?Tohaveafirmguaranteethatthesecondstrikewillbe
intercepted,tohavethefreedomtolaunchthefirststrike?Isthatwhywearedoingallthis?79
Russianconcernsandcandorarenotlimitedtothenuclearsphere.Continuinghispointaboutthefallacy
oftreatingnuclearweaponsasastand-alonecapability,Berdennikovsaid,
Wearepreparedforadialogueaboutfurthernucleardisarmamentsteps.Atthesametime,weare
convincedthattheyareimpossiblewithoutsolvingsuchproblemsastheunlimitedgrowthofglobal
U.S.missiledefenses,theprojectofusingstrategicweaponswithconventionalwarheadswithin
theconceptofglobalstrike,...therefusaloftheUnitedStatestopledgenottodeployweapons
inspace,[and]thegrowthofqualitativeandquantitativeconventionalimbalances.80
ThisstatementandothersbyseniorRussianofficialsandprominentanalystsunderscorethevitalfunction
nuclearweaponscontinuetoperforminthedefenseoftheRussianstate.81Athreattothoseweaponsisa
threattothesurvivalofanindependentandsovereignRussianstate.
NewThreats
TheexpandingrangeofU.S.strategiccapabilitiesnuclear,high-precisionandlong-rangeconventional,
andmissiledefensehasbeenamajorpreoccupationofRussianmilitaryanalysts.82Russianconcern
aboutthesecapabilitiesisreflectedincandidstatementsaboutthethreattheypose,aswellas
reassurancesthatRussianstrategicsystemsarerobust,reliable,andimpervioustoU.S.offensiveor
defensivearsenals.83
Theconversationaboutthechangingnatureofwarfare,therolesofnuclearandnon-nuclearweapons,
anddeterrencehasbeenunderwayamongRussianexpertsandmilitaryofficialsfordecades,beginning
withthewritingsofOgarkov.ThisconversationreflectsthedeepconvictionamongRussiananalystsand
plannersthatRussiahasfallenfarbehindtheUnitedStatesinthedevelopmentofhigh-precision
conventionalweaponryandnon-nucleardeterrentcapabilities.84Italsoreflectstheirviewthatgradually,
theperformancecharacteristicsofnon-nuclear,high-precisionweaponsareimprovingsomuchthatthey
couldbegintotakeonthefunctionsthatuntilnowhavebeenassignedexclusivelytonuclearweapons.85
Asaresult,thetaskfacingtheRussianmilitaryofdeterringsuperioradversariesequippedwithsuch
systemsisincreasinglychallenging.86
Despitebravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclearshield
isinvincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstand
deterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappearto
harbordoubts.
TheranksofRussianmilitaryanalystsincludeanumberofskepticswhodoubtnotsomuchtherelative
stateofaffairsinthedevelopmentofU.S.andRussianarsenalsasthepropositionthatconventionalhigh-
precisionsystemswillbeabletotakeovermissionsassignedtonuclearsystems.87Theseskepticsbelieve
thattheprincipalthreattoRussiasnucleardeterrentandretaliatorycapabilitiesisposedbyU.S.nuclear
systemsandthatpriorityshouldbegiventoprogramsintendedtocounterthosesystems.However,even
theseskepticsconcludethatalthoughnon-nuclear,precision-guidedweaponscannotsupplantnuclear
weapons,theycanaffectthestrategicbalanceinsignificantways.88
Tomeetthischallenge,Russiandefenseexpertscontinuetoemphasizenuclearweapons.Althoughmuch
hasbeenmadeoftheseriesofRussianconventionalshipbornecruisemissilestrikesfromtheCaspianSea
againsttargetsinSyria,thesemuch-toutedcapabilitiesintheeyesofRussianexpertsareapparentlynot
yetsufficienttodeterNATOthreatstoRussiainEurope.89
InSeptember2014,DmitryRogozin,thedeputyprimeministerinchargeofdefenseindustries,pledgedto
modernizetheentireRussianstrategicnuclearforcesby2020,notmerely70percentaspreviously
planned.90AccordingtoShoigu,56percentofRussiannuclearweaponsarenew.91Thechiefofthe
GeneralStaff,GeneralValeryGerasimov,echoedRogozinsvowandreferredtoprioritydevelopmentof
strategicnuclearforcesastheMinistryofDefensesmostimportanttask.92
However,despitetheseacceleratedprogramsandbravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclearshieldis
invincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexperts
appeartoharbordoubtsthatthesemeasuresaresufficient.93Thus,somehavesuggestedthateven
deployingIskandershort-rangeballisticmissiles,capableofcarryingnuclearwarheads,toCrimeaand
Kaliningradmayproveinsufficienttodeterpotentialenemies.94Instead,toaccomplishthatgoal,Russia
mayhavetowithdrawfromtheIntermediate-RangeNuclearForcesTreatyandreintroducethatclassof
weaponsintoitsarsenal.95Russiancommentatorsmaintainthatsuchastepisbeingcontemplatedbecause
ofthecombinedthreatofNATOmissiledefenseinEuropeandtheacquisitionofintermediate-range
missilesbyPakistan,India,andIran.96
Russiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalongtime.
OfficialstatementsofferassurancesthatRussiawillusenuclearweaponsonlyintwocircumstances:in
retaliationforastrikeagainstitoritsalliesusingnuclearweaponsorsomeotherformofweaponsofmass
destructionorifRussiaisavictimofanaggressionthatusesconventionalweaponsbutthreatensthevery
survivaloftheRussianstate.97However,RussiandefensepolicydiscussionsrevealthatseniorRussian
defenseplannersalsocontemplateanothercontingency:launchingpreventivenuclearstrikes,whetherofa
limitednatureintendedtode-escalateaconflictoronalargerscale.98Thiscouldamounttoyetanother
tacitadmissionofRussiandefenseplannerslackofconfidenceintheirsecond-strikecapability.Ifthey
dontusetheirnuclearweapons,inotherwords,theylosethem.
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalong
time.Russiandefenseexpertsandofficialsreadilyadmitthattheirindustrialandtechnologicalinferiority
willpreventthemfrommatchingU.S.advancedmilitarytechnologiesintheforeseeablefuture.99This
undoubtedlyfeedstheiralreadydeeplyheldfeelingofinsecurityandinferiorityvis--vistheWest,whichis
onlyreinforcedbytheproliferationofnewtechnologiesandcapabilitiesfordifferentformsofwarfare.
AsifU.S.nuclear,high-precisionconventional,andmissiledefensetechnologieshavenotbeenenoughto
fuelanxietiesofRussiandefenseplanners,theadventofcyberwarfarehasaddedtotheirsenseof
insecurity.ThisisnottosaythatRussiahasnotsustaineditsownvastcyberwarfareeffortorinvested
priortotheadventofcybertechnologyinwhatRussiandefenseexpertscallradio-electronicwarfareor
informationwarfare.Ithas.However,theinformationrevolutionanduniversalcomputerizationofevery
sphereofstateandsocietalactivityhascreatedamultitudeofnewthreats.
Theworldisenteringanewphaseofwarfare,accordingtoRussiandefenseexperts,whoassertthat
cyberwarfareisnolongerawarofthefuture.100Itistakingplacenowanew,fifthdomain,alongwith
land,air,sea,andspace,inwhichwarcanandwillbewaged.Cyberwarfaretakesprecedenceover
kineticwarfareandisbeingundertakenbystatescontinuously.Theboundarybetweenwarandpeaceis
beinggraduallyerased.CyberwarfarecanthreatenRussiainawidevarietyofways,fromparalyzingand
destroyingitsinfrastructuretodisablingitscomputernetworksorinsertingdeliberatelyfalseinformation
anddisseminatingittothepopulation.AccordingtoRussianexperts,thedestructivepotentialof
cyberweaponsiscomparabletothatofnuclearweapons.101Cyberweaponscancreatepanic,plunge
societiesintochaos,underminelegitimategovernments,suppressanationswilltoresistaggression,and
paralyzeitsarmedforces.Theycanwinwarsbeforeeventhefirstshotisfired.102Understandingthe
consequencesofthisformofwarfareisofutmostimportancefortheRussianmilitary,whichhasalready
begunthiseffort.103
InformationwarfarehaslongbeenamajorareaofinterestandconcernforRussiannationalsecurity
officials.TheRussianSecurityCounciladoptedtheDoctrineofInformationSecurityofRussian
Federationasearlyas2000andsincethenhasdevelopedawholelibraryofsupportingdocumentsto
guideRussianpolicyinthissphere.104Sincethen,Russianconcernsaboutthreatsposedbyoffensive
operationsofcyberwarandinformationwarhaveincreasedmanifold,andtheissuehasbeenactively
discussedamongdefenseandsecurityexperts.105The2016NationalSecurityStrategystatesthatinthe
interestofprotectingstateandpublicsecurity,thegovernmentwillundertakethenecessarystepsto
improvetheprotectionofcitizensandsocietyfromtheeffectsofdestructiveinformationpropagatedby
extremistsandterroristorganizations,foreignintelligenceservices,andpropagandaoutlets.106
ThesensitivityandurgencyofthepotentialthreattoRussiafromthecyberdomainwasunderscoredin
2014whenPutindeclaredGoogleaspecialprojectoftheU.S.CentralIntelligenceAgencyandurged
Russianstoavoidusingit.TheRussianleaderscommentsaboutU.S.controloftheInternet,combined
withtheRussiangovernmentslong-termpursuittoestablishsovereigncontroloverRussiasportionof
theInternet,reflecttheinsecuritynotonlyoftheelitesbutalsoofthegeneralpublicaboutthecountrys
vulnerabilitytocyberattacksandinformationattacksfromadversaries,bothrealandimagined.107This
insecuritygoessofarastomotivatetheRussiangovernmenttoseekwaystocontroltheRussianInternet
andevenconsiderwaystoineffectunplugRussiafromtheInternetinanemergency.108Sovereigncontrol
overRussiasportionoftheInternethasbeenalong-standinggoaloftheRussiangovernmentspositionin
internationalforumsdealingwithInternetgovernanceagoalthathasservedasanelementofRussian-
ChinesepartnershipinoppositiontoU.S.andotherWesternnationspursuitofthefreeflowof
informationwithoutborders.109Inthefuture,theRussiangovernmentspursuitofcapabilitiestoregulate
and,ifnecessary,switchofftheInternetisexpectedtointensifyasitconsidersafreeandunimpeded
IntheviewofRussiannationalsecurityexperts,thefuturehasarrived.TheeffectonRussiahasbeento
aggravateitssenseofencirclement,compounditsvulnerabilities,andmultiplythreatstoit.
WarbyOtherMeans
ThedeteriorationofthisperceivedthreatenvironmentintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisishasspawneda
discussionamongRussiannationalsecurityexpertsaboutvariousformsofnonkinetic,nonstopwarfare
wagedbytheWestagainstRussiaeveninpeacetime.Inadditiontoinformationwarandcyberwarfare,
theyhavefocusedonWesterneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaasaformofcontinuous,undeclared
warfare.
TheKremlinsresponsetosanctionscanbesummedupasamovetowardeconomicnationalismand
isolationism.WhenVisaandMasterCardcutoffservicestotwoRussianbanksthatweresanctionedby
theUnitedStates,themovehighlightedfortheRussiangovernmenttheeconomysheavyrelianceon
WesternpaymentsystemsanditsresultingvulnerabilitytofurtherWesternsanctions.Inresponse,the
CentralBankofRussiahasannouncedaplantocreateanationalpaymentsystemtoinsulateRussiafrom
Westernpressureintheeventofanewroundofsanctions.111ThemorerecentthreattocutoffRussian
accesstoSWIFT(SocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunication)hasledtheRussian
governmenttoconsideroptionsforsettingupanalternativeinpartnershipwithChina.112
Thedefense-industrialsectorhasbeendirectedtodiminishandeventuallyeliminateitsrelianceonforeign
suppliers.113Thedesiretoenddependenceonforeignsuppliersisnotlimitedtothedefensesector,forin
May2016,Putintaskedthecabinetwithstimulatingdomesticmanufacturinganddevelopingsubstitutes
forforeignimportsthroughouttheeconomy.Inafurthermovetoinsulatetheeconomyfromforeign
influence,Putinorderedthegovernmenttodevelopandimplementstepsfordeoffshorizationofmajor
industrialenterprisesbydevelopingtax,accounting,andcriminallegislationaimedatdiscouraging
companiesfromlocatingfacilitiesoffshore.114
Theideathatsanctionsrepresentaformofwarfareoraninstrumentofcoercionishardlyneworunique
toRussia.Ithasalonghistory,andrecordeddiplomacyandwarfarearerepletewithexamplesofitdating
allthewaytoancientGreece.115Nonetheless,Westernsanctionsandtheeconomicslumpthathas
followedtheirimpositionalthoughcausednotonlybythemundoubtedlyhaveunderscoredRussias
vulnerabilitytooutsideforcesandthehostileenvironmentaroundit.
ThetakeoverofCrimeabytheRussianmilitaryand,subsequently,theoperationsineasternUkrainehave
focusedtheattentionofforeignandRussianobserversonso-calledhybridwarfare.Thisterm,which
referstoawiderangeofkineticandnonkineticactivitiesbymilitarypersonnelandcivilians,hasbeenthe
subjectofextensivediscussionsinRussiaasbothathreattoRussiansecurityandRussiasresponseto
threatstoitposedbyhostilepowers.
WesternofficialsandanalystshavefocusedonhybridwarfareprimarilyasaresultofRussiasundeclared
warinUkraine,whichentailsamixofspecialforces,civilians,informationoperations,cyberattacks,and,
onsomeoccasions,uniformedmilitarypersonnel.116Presumably,acombinationofthesecapabilitiesina
crisisenvironmentcanbeusedtoachievesurpriseandconfusetheadversaryandtoaccomplishpolitical
andmilitaryobjectiveswithoutresortingtolarge-scalekineticwarfareandanoutrightwardeclaration,
whichinturncanpresentanadversarywithafaitaccompliandavoidunnecessarycasualtiesand
escalationofhostilitiesforRussia.CountriesthatshareborderswithRussia,especiallytheBalticstates,
someofwhichhavelargeRussianpopulations,areespeciallyvulnerabletothistypeofwarfare,Western
officialshavewarned.117
Russianrelianceonsuchformsofwarfarehastheadditionalimportantbenefitofambiguity.Intheabsence
ofanoutrightmilitaryinterventionbyRussiainoneormoreBalticstates,NATOwouldlackclear
evidenceofRussianaggression,thusrunningtheriskofconfusionandcontroversyamongtheallieswith
respecttomilitaryactionindefenseoftheBalticstatesinaccordancewiththealliancesArticle5
guarantees.
RussiandefenseexpertsalsochargethattheWestisconductinghybridwarfareagainstRussiathrougha
combinationofmilitaryandothermeans,includingsanctionsandinformationwarfare.118Their
interpretationofhybridwarfareunderscoresthedestabilizingfunctionoftheWestsdemocracypromotion
activitiesspecificallythecolorrevolutionsinthecountriessurroundingRussia.InRussiasview,those
activities,throughmeasureswellshortofwar,createazoneofinstabilityaroundRussia,encircleitwith
Westernagentsofinfluence,andcreateopportunitiesforWesternintervention.119Moreover,instability
threatensnotonlyRussiasneighborsbutalsoRussiaitself,becausesupportforgroupsinsideRussia
opposedtotheRussiangovernmentcanalsobeinterpretedasanelementofhybridwarfare.120Large-
scalewarfarehasbecomedangerous,evensuicidal,forthepartiesinvolved,duetothedestruction
associatedwithitwithorwithoutnuclearweapons.Andthatinturnnecessitatesresortingtootherforms
ofwarfarethatcarrysmallerrisksofcatastrophicconsequences.
transformative.121Forexample,theynote,informationoperationshavelongbeenacriticalelementof
statesactivitiesintendedtomisleadanadversaryanddemoralizeitspopulationandcombatants.
Deploymentofmilitarypersonnelwithoutnationalinsigniaisalong-standingpracticeinwarfare,asisthe
useofproxiesandregularforcesundertheguiseofvolunteers.Theargumentaboutthenoveltyofhybrid
warfarethusdoesnotstanduptoscrutinyandiscontradictedbyalongandrichhistoricalrecordof
variousconflicts.122
TheRussiangovernmentsapproachtodealingwithUkraine-relatedsanctionsimposedbytheUnited
StatesandtheEuropeanUnionisindicativeofwhatRussianbehaviorcanbeexpectedtobelikeinfuture
crises.ByfocusingonsomeoftheweakerandpoorerEUandNATOmembersGreeceorBulgaria,for
instanceRussianofficialshaveapparentlysoughttounderminebothorganizationsconsensuson
sanctionsagainstRussia.123Similarly,thereportedfinancialtiesbetweenFrancesfar-rightNationalFront
andaMoscow-basedbankarelikelyintendedtosecureaRussianfootholdinFrenchdomesticpolitics
andtoseektoinfluenceFrenchpolicy.124Politicalpartiesandindividualpoliticiansandofficialsinthe
CzechRepublic,Germany,andLatviahaveallbeentargetedbytheRussiangovernment.125
maneuvering,diversionarytroopmovements,activationofsleeperagentsandfriendlylocals,infiltrationof
specialforces,reconnaissance,andvariousothermilitary,paramilitary,andcivilianpersonnelareallfair
game.Corruption,blackmail,relianceoncriminalnetworks,andoverteconomicassistanceareallfair
gameasmeansofpreparingthebattlefieldorachievingpoliticalobjectivesbeforethefirstshotisfired.
ABleakOutlook
EuropeandEurasiaiswelljustified.TherearemanyuncertaintiesinRussiasfuture,aswellasinthoseof
itsneighbors,potentialpartners,allies,andadversaries.However,thoseuncertaintiesdisappearwhenit
comestothisprediction:theabilitiesofRussianleaders,militaryplanners,anddiplomatswillbethoroughly
testedintheyearsanddecadestocomeasafunctionofthedifficultgeopoliticalenvironmentandmultiple
challengesthecountryisfacingathome.
PredictingthetrajectoryofRussiaisaninherentlydifficulttask.FewpredictedthebreakupoftheSoviet
Unionbeforeitunraveledrapidly.Fewpredictedthatthecountrywoulddissolverelativelypeacefully.
Fewpredictedtheeconomiccalamitythatfollowed,therecoveryofRussiaadecadelater,theeconomic
boomthatfollowed,theprotestsof2012,thewarwithUkraine,andthevirulentlyanti-Westernturnin
Russiandomesticandforeignpolicies.Allofthesemajorshiftsoccurredintheshorthistorically
speakingspanoftwenty-fiveyears.
Acomparableseriesofeventsinthenextdecadeordecadeandahalfcouldtheoreticallyresultinthe
breakupofRussiaintoaseriesofsmallerstates,someofthemwithnuclearweaponsontheirterritories
anotherwarintheSouthCaucasusanewrapprochementwiththeWestnecessitatedbytheneedfor
modernization,economicaid,andhelpconsolidatingnuclearweaponsinwhatsleftofRussiaproper.And
allofthesecouldbefollowedbytheriseofanationalistRussianregimebentongatheringthelostempire
andreconstitutingthegreatRussianstate,triggeringyetanotherconflictwithbothimmediateneighbors
andtheWest.
Insum,noforecastofRussiasfuturecanbereducedtoastraightline.Russiahastoexploremultiple
possibilities.Ithastoconsiderpossibilitiesthatareliterallystrangerthanfiction.Andthenithastocaution
thereadertotakeallwithabiggrainofsalt.
ConsideringthemanychangesinRussiainthepastquartercentury,itiseasytooverlookthefactthat
eventhoughthecountryunderwentamajorpoliticalshockwhentheSovietUnionbrokeup,itspolitical
systemisquitewellestablished.DespitesignificantdifferencesbetweentheYeltsinera,thePutin
presidency,andtheMedvedevinterregnum,thepoliticalsystemchangedlittle.Describedearlyinits
developmentbylongtimeRussiaexpertThomasGraham,ithasremainedessentiallyanoligarchywithall
thetrappingsofamoderndemocracy,butwithoutinternalideologicaldifferencesandmotivatedonlyby
competitionforpropertyamongoligarchicgroupsorclans.126Atthecenterofthisarrangementstandsa
powerfulpresidentwhosemissionistomanagecompetitionamongclansandthusmaintaindomestic
stability.
EstablishedearlyduringtheYeltsinpresidency,thissystemhassurvivedlargelyintact.Someclansand
oligarchshavedeparted,andothershavereplacedthem.Thepowerofthepresidencyhasincreasedor
decreaseddependingonthepersonalityoftheincumbent.Butthroughitall,thesysteminitsessencehas
remainedintact.Keyfeaturesofthissystemapowerfulexecutive,thecloserelationshipbetweenpower
andproperty,theirconcentrationinthehandsofarelativelysmallelite,thelackofarepresentative
government,andtheprevalenceoftherulingideologypredatethecurrentRussianregimeandhavetheir
rootsintheSovietandimperialRussianperiods.Littleonthecountryspoliticallandscapesuggeststhat
thesystemislikelytoundergosignificantchangesintheforeseeablefuture.Itmayundergosomechanges
onthemargins,butthereisnothinginRussiandomesticpoliticstoindicatethatamorerepresentativeform
ofgovernmentislikelytoemergeinthenexttentofifteenyears.Yet,changemayberequiredforthe
countrytoovercomethemanyobstaclesfacingit.
StagnationLooms
prospects.AsnotedbymanyRussianobserversquotedinthispaper,theproblemisnotjustthattheprice
ofoilisloworthatthesanctionsimposedbytheEUandtheUnitedStateshavehurttheRussian
economy.TheentiremodelofeconomicdevelopmentpursuedbyRussiainthepastdecadeandahalf,
theobserversconclude,hasoutliveditself.
SomeRussiananalystshavenotedthesimilaritybetweenPutinsRussia,nowintheseventeenthyearof
theRussianpresidentstenureatthehelm,andtheSovietUnionduringtheeraofLeonidBrezhnev,who
ledthecountryforeighteenyearsfrom1964to1982.127Then,too,theSovietUnionhadreachedadead
endandhadtoradicallychangecourseindomesticandforeignaffairs.
Russiasnextpresidentialelectionisscheduledin2018.Putin,whowillthenbesixty-fiveyearsold,will
endhisthirdpresidentialtermandwilleitherrunforyetanothersix-yeartermorstepasideeitherasa
tacticalmeasureorasamovetowardretirement.ThelikelihoodofPutinsteppingasideretiring,rather
thanasatacticalmoveappearslowatthetimeofthiswriting.128
Moreover,Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalstageshouldnotbeequatedwithimprovedprospectsfor
politicaloreconomicmodernizationinRussia.Theupperechelonofthecountryspoliticaleliteis
composedofpeoplewhoseoutlooksandbackgroundsaresimilartoPutins.Theirprospectsfor
implementingmajorchangesinthecountryspoliticalsystemoreconomyappearequallymodestatbest
IfPutinLeaves
Nonetheless,theconsequencesofPutinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneareworthconsideringifonly
asanintellectualenterprise.TheRussianpresidentsretirementattheendofhiscurrenttermwouldbe
followedbyanelectioninwhichanewleaderwouldbechosen.Thatishowtheprocessissupposedto
workformally,andthereislittlechancethatitwillnot.
Inreality,PutinsdeparturewouldholdthepossibilityofasignificantdestabilizationofRussianpolitics.He
occupiesauniquelypowerfulplaceinthecountryspoliticalsystem,actingasthecentralfigureamong
variousinterestsgroupsandclans,balancingtheircompetingdemandsandadjudicatingtheirdisputes.129
NootherpoliticiancomesclosetoPutinsstandinginthatsystem.Hehasnopoliticalheirorsecond-in-
command.TheprimeministercurrentlyDmitryMedvedevstepsintemporarilyifthepresidentis
incapacitatedordiesinoffice,untilanewpresidentiselectedwithinninetydays.Few,ifany,political
analystswouldarguethatMedvedevisacrediblecandidateforthepresidencytosucceedPutinora
powerfulfigureinRussiandomesticpolitics.
Intheabsenceofadesignatedpoliticalsuccessor,theprocessofnominatingacandidatefromthepolitical
eliteso-calledthepartyofpowerwouldbehighlycontested,almostcertainlymoresothanthe
electionitself.Suchintra-elitestrugglestookplaceduringthe20072008period,whenPutinssecond
termwasduetoexpirebuthehadnotyetdesignatedhissuccessorormadeclearhisownplans.Similarly,
in2011,RussianeliteswereunsettledbythelackofclarityaboutthefutureoftheMedvedev-Putin
tandem.
likelihoodofcoalescingaroundasinglecandidate.Buttheprocessofselectingthatsinglecandidateis
likelytobecontentious,resultinginafiercecompetitionamongclansandinterestgroups.
Thenomineewouldbevirtuallycertaintowintheelection.Russiasbeleagueredpoliticaloppositionhas
beendecimatedasaresultofaseriesofsystematicmeasuresbythePutinadministrationtolimittheability
ofoppositionpartiesandcivilsocietyatlargetoorganize,recruitmembers,raisefunds,orinanyother
wayparticipateinthepoliticallifeofthecountry.Noseriouscontenderforthepresidencyabletocompete
withtheonenominatedbythepartyofpowerislikelytoemergefromtheranksoftheopposition.
However,theelectionwouldnotmarktheendofpoliticalinstabilityinRussia.Thenewleaderwouldhave
toworkhardtoconsolidatehis(mostlikelynother)powerandrestoretheequilibriumamongclans
disruptedbyPutinsdeparture.Thiswouldalmostcertainlybeaprocessthatwouldtakeyears,giventhe
sizeofthecountry,themultitudeofitsclansandinterestgroups,regionalinterests,andthesorrystateof
theeconomythatwouldalmostcertainlyleadtofiercecompetitionamongclansforalargershareofthe
shrinkingpie.
Howlikelyisthecountrysnewpresidenttointroducemajorreformsindomesticorforeignaffairsinthat
environment?SuchreformsnotunliketheGorbachev-eradtentewiththeWestinforeignpolicyand
movementtowardderegulationandmarketcapitalismwouldundoubtedlyprovecontroversialand
politicallydifficult,fortheywouldaffectinterestsofvariousclansvestedinthestatusquo.Anynewleader
wouldhavetotakethatintoaccount.Anewleaderwouldalsohavetotakeintoaccountthefragilityof
theRussianeconomyandprobablybemindfulthatGorbachevsreformsendedincatastrophethe
breakupofthecountry.Withthisbaggage,anynewleaderwouldlikelyproceedwithextremecaution,if
atall.ThelikelyoutcomeofthisscenariowouldbeacontinuationofPutinism,butwithoutPutin,forthe
remainderofthisdecade,ifnotlonger.Changewouldhavetowaituntillater,perhapsuntilthesuccessors
secondpresidentialterm.
Oncechangecomes,itcouldprovedestabilizing.AfutureRussianleaderlaunchingmajorreformsinthe
middleofthethirddecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywouldhavetocontendwithamultitudeof
challenges,including
astagnanteconomy
highbarrierstodomesticandforeigninvestmentexcessivegovernmentregulation,weakruleof
law,corruption,andpoorinfrastructureand
geopoliticalgravitationalpolesChina,Turkey,Europewillcreatepowerfulcentrifugalforcesand
greatlycomplicatethetaskofthefederalgovernmentofmanagingtheeconomyandpoliticalsystem.
Russia,whichisorganizedasafederation,couldfacesomeofthesameseparatisttendenciesthatthe
SovietUnionencounteredamongitsconstituentrepublicsinitsfinalyears.Alternatively,thiscouldresultin
asignificantdelegationofpowerandauthoritytotheregions.Thepossibilityoffurtherfragmentationofthe
RussianstatehastobeconsideredasoneofrealcontingenciestofaceRussiaattheendofthe2020s.
IfPutinStays
whetherheiscapableofchange.Putinsreturntothepresidencyin2012provedasetbackforRussias
reformersandadvocatesofmodernizationafteraperiodwhenprospectsforeconomicandpolitical
modernizationlookedrelativelybright.Since2012,theyhavedimmedconsiderably,andintheaftermath
oftheUkrainecrisistheyappeartobenearlyextinguished.
Theneedforchangeinthecountryseconomicandpoliticallifecloselyrelatedtoeachotheriswidely
understoodandacknowledgedinRussiansociety.Itisequallywidelyunderstoodthatsignificantchange
couldprovedestabilizingfortheestablishedpoliticalsystem.Asmentioned,theexperienceofthe
Gorbachev-erareformscontinuestoserveasapotentcautionaryreminderofthedangersassociatedwith
radicalchange.
Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,
regardlessofPutinscourse.
Putinhasfirmlyandrepeatedlyrejectedtheideaofpoliticalmodernizationasathreattothecountrys
stability.Hisentirethirdtermcanbedescribedasantimodernization,includingsuppressionofcivilsociety,
isolationofRussiafromEuropeandtheUnitedStates,propagandaofso-calledtraditionalRussianvalues
asdifferentfromEuropeanvaluesandnorms,prouddeclarationsthatRussiaisnotEurope,andapush
toautarkyineconomicdevelopmenttoinoculatethecountryfromthethreatofWesternsanctions.Moves
bytheKremlintoassertthesupremacyofRussianlawsoverinternationaltreatiessignedbyRussiaand
disconnectthecountryfromtheInternetaresymbolicoftheantimodernizationspiritthathaspermeated
RussianpoliticsandpolicymakingsincePutinsreturntothepresidency.
Putinhasraisedtheissueofeconomicmodernizationinhisspeechesrepeatedly.However,hisrecordin
officesincehisaccessiontothepresidencyin2000ofconsistent,step-by-step,deliberateconsolidation
ofpoliticalpowerandeconomicleversinthehandsofthestateorasmallgroupofassociatescloselytied
tothestatespeaksmuchlouderthanhiswords.Ifheweretobecomeamodernizerlateinhispolitical
career,itwouldbearadicaldeparturefromeverythinghehasdoneuntilnow.
Increasingly,economicmodernizationinRussiarequirespoliticalmodernizationaswell,andashiftfrom
thesmall,Kremlin-centeredoligarchytoamoreopeneconomicsystemwithstrongerruleoflaw,
transparency,andadegreeofcompetitiveness.Thatwillrequirereformsthatwouldchallengethevery
politicalorderthatforthepastdecadeandahalfhasservedasthefoundationofRussiandomestic
stabilityandPutinspersonalpowerandhasitsrootsinthesystemthatemergedsoonafterthebreakupof
theSovietUnion.Theoutlookforachangeofsuchmagnitudeisnotencouragingfortheforeseeable
future.
Underthepresentconstitutionalarrangement,andassumingPutinisreelectedin2018,hewillremainin
officeuntil2024.Hewillbeseventy-onethenstillrelativelyyoungandquiteplausiblynotreadyto
departthepoliticalstage.TheprospectofPutinremainingatthehelmasfaras2030isquitereal,justas
theprospectofhischangingcourseisquiteremote.
ThisisnottosaythatRussiawillcontinueindefinitelyalongitspresentglidepath.Theabsenceofreforms
andlackofprogresstowardmodernizingthecountryspoliticalsystemandeconomyareboundtotake
theirtollonitseconomy,itspolitics,anditsinternationalstanding.Thisisalmostcertaintotrigger
discontinuitiespolitical,security,andeconomic.Thatsaid,anyattemptbyPutinorhissuccessorto
tacklethischallengeisfraughtwithsignificantrisksofdiscontinuity.Inshort,Russiaisfacingadifficult
decadeoradecadeandahalf,regardlessofPutinscourse.
Theweaknessofandsevererestrictionsonoppositionpoliticalpartiesandcivicorganizationsvirtually
precludethepossibilityofapowerfulstructuredchallengetothePutinregime.However,therestrictions
onorganizedpoliticalactivitiescandolittletolimitspontaneousmanifestationsofdiscontentand
grassrootsactionsinresponsetoadecliningstandardofliving,actionsoflocalauthorities,or
intercommunal,interracial,orinterconfessionaltensions.130Thegrowthofsuchprotestactivitiescould,
overtime,developintoapersistentpattern,creatingopportunitiesforpoliticalchallengestotheregime.
Theregimesinabilityorunwillingnesstotackletheunderlyingeconomicpoliticalandeconomicproblems
couldexacerbatethechallengeandthethreattothecountrysdomesticstability.
Inadditiontothechallengetothecountryspoliticalstability,thelonglistofproblemsfacingtheRussian
governmentintheconditionsofastagnanteconomyandshrinkingresourcesincludesthethreatofyet
anotherdestabilizationintheNorthCaucasus,whererelativepeaceandstabilityhavebeenmaintained
throughmassivefederaltransfersandcutsindefensespending,socialprograms,science,education,and
otherprograms.131Combinedwithlackofinvestmenteveninthecriticalenergysector,thesecutsthreaten
cascadinglong-termeffectsontheeconomy,furtherunderminingitsabilitytoinnovate,diversify,and
grow,allofwhichpointtothesystemiccrisis.132
ChallengesAbroad
TomakemattersworseforRussianpolicymakers,theexternalenvironmenttheyarelikelytofacealong
theimmediateperipheryofRussiaandbeyondpromisestobeequallychallenging.TheUkrainecrisishas
compoundedthechallengesRussiannationalsecurityexpertshavelongfearedintheEuro-Atlantictheater.
Atthesametime,thebreakinrelationswithEuropeandtheUnitedStateshasnotresultedinnew
partnershipsoralliancesforRussiaelsewhere.Thishasoccurredatatimeofmajornewinstabilityinthe
internationalarenaingeneralandinregionsnearRussiainparticular.
InEurope,RussianthreatperceptionsandconcernsaboutNATOslowlymovingitsmilitarycapabilities
towarditsbordersarebecomingaself-fulfillingprophecyintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis.If,priorto
theannexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,Russiawasconsideredbytheallianceasa
possible,albeitincreasinglyunlikely,partner,thenRussianactionsinUkrainehaveputanendtosuch
hopesforpartnershipandtransformedtherelationshipintoonethatisopenlyadversarial.133Thealliances
commitmentnottopermanentlystationsubstantialcombatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembersinthe
currentandforeseeablesecurityenvironmentdisappearedwiththeannexationofCrimea,theaggressionin
easternUkraine,andRussianthreatsagainsttheBalticstatesandotherNATOmembers.
TheUkrainecrisishasspurredNATOtoproceedwithactionspreviouslyconsideredonlyremoteand
unlikelypossibilities.InresponsetowhatseniorNATOofficialsdescribeasthemostdangerousthreatto
Europe,NATOisundertakingaseriesofstepsthatincludethestationingofU.S.andotherNATO
troopsandpre-positioningofequipment,includingheavyU.S.equipment,inthefrontlinestatesfromthe
BaltictotheBlackSeaplanningforandtrainingtodefendagainstRussianaggressionandestablishment
ofrapidresponseandbroaderresponseforces.134AndnowSweden,neutralfornearlytwocenturies,
andFinland,neutralsince1948,arehavingactivedebatesaboutjoiningthealliance.135
Further,theUkrainecrisishaspromptedcallsfromWesternmilitaryanalyststocounterRussianthreatsto
EuropewiththeverysystemsthatRussianassessmentshavelonghighlightedasdestabilizingandmost
threateningintheeventofacrisis.136Acombinationoflong-range,stealth,andprecisiontechnologies,if
deployedbyNATOalliesinacrisis,wouldbethefulfillmentofRussiandefenseplannersworst
expectations.
confrontRussiainitsWesternstrategicdirection.ThebiggestchallengefacingRussiaalongitswestern
frontieristheunsettledconflictwithUkraine.RussianactionsinvolvingUkrainehaveservedasasourceof
long-term,deepenmitybetweentwocountriesthatpreviouslyhadexperiencednone.Furthermore,they
havecreatedalong-termsourceofinstabilityinlieuofthepredictable,ifstagnant,relationshipthathad
existedbetweenRussiaandUkraineforthequartercenturyfromthebreakupoftheSovietUniontothe
annexationofCrimea.
muddlingthroughorreturningtoRussiasorbit.Thisbleakprospectisaproductofseveralcircumstances:
thelegacyofSovietrulecombinedwiththemisruleofthefirstquartercenturyofindependencethatleft
UkraineacorruptoligarchythedepletedeconomybadlydamagedbytheconflictineasternUkraineand
reformsthatwereneverimplementedandthelackofinterestintheWesttosupportUkrainewiththe
samecommitmentEuropeandtheUnitedStatesmadetointegratetheformerWarsawPactcountriesand
BalticstatesintotheWesternpolitical,economic,andsecuritystructures.Inaddition,theconflictin
easternUkraineislikelytobesettledonlyasfrozenratherthanresolved,thusleavingapermanentwound
inUkrainesdomesticpolitics,economy,andsecurity.
Themuddling-throughscenariohasUkrainestayingonitspresentcourseofdifficult,haltingpoliticaland
economicreformsforthedurationofPresidentPetroPoroshenkostermuntil2019.Thisscenariohas
Ukrainemakingintermittentprogressinthefollowingareas:someimprovementinitsinvestmentclimate
gradualstructuralreformsoftheeconomy,especiallytheenergysectorandheavyindustry
decentralizationandsomecurbingofthepowerofoligarchs.Allofthesechangespromisetobedifficult
andpoliticallychallenging,threateningtounderminethegovernmentsprecariousstandinginthepollsand
possiblyleadingtoearlyparliamentaryelections,furthercomplicatingthegovernmentstask.Thisscenario
alsoentailsimplementingadifficultsecurity-sectorreform,reequippingthearmedforces,andadaptingto
ahostofEU-mandatedrequirementsthatmakeupUkrainesAssociationAgreementandfree-trade
agreementwiththeEU.Thisisahighlyambitiousagendathatatbestcanbeonlypartlyfulfilled,evenby
themostambitiousreformersandwiththehelpofgenerousaid,whichisunlikelytomaterialize.Allthe
while,UkrainewouldbeunderseverepressurefromRussia.
Thealternativescenarioentailsastalledreformeffort,growingpopulardiscontent,andgridlockinthe
parliament.Together,thesewouldhaveaparalyzingeffectontheabilityofthegovernmenttofunction.The
InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)agreementwouldthenbejeopardized,leadingtoahaltinIMF
assistancetoUkraine.OtherdonorassistanceconditionedoncompliancewithIMFrequirementswould
alsobeimperiled.Thisturnofeventswouldprecipitateanothercrisis,afailureoftherulingcoalitionand
earlyparliamentaryandpossiblypresidentialelectionsrestoringtopoweralessreform-mindedleadership
andreturningUkrainetothedysfunctionaloligarch-dominatedstateithadbeeninpriortotheEuromaidan
antigovernmentuprisingin20132014.Thisscenarioalsoentailsthenewgovernmentsgradual
accommodationwithRussiainexchangeforfinancialsubsidiesintheformoffavorabletermsforgastrade
orloans.TheaccommodationwithRussiawouldprovecontroversialwithmanyinUkraine,leadingtoa
dividedpolityandpermanentpoliticaltensions,polarization,andgovernmentdysfunction.
Ineitherscenario,fortheforeseeablefuture,Ukraineislikelytoremainafragilestatestrugglingwith
domesticreformsandcaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.NeitherRussianorEurope
andtheUnitedStatesislikelytocountonUkraineasareliablepartner.ForbothRussiaandtheWest,
Ukrainepromisestobeasourceofeconomicandsecuritychallengesaswellasamajorsubjectoflong-
termtensionsanddiscordintheirbilateralrelations.
Similarlycaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWestisUkrainesnorthernneighborBelarus.
Ruledbyawilyauthoritarianleader,AleksandrLukashenko,formorethantwodecades,thecountryhas
survivedinlargemeasurethankstoitsspecialrelationshipwithRussiaandhugesubsidiesfromMoscow,
coupledwitharepressiveregimethathassucceededineliminatingormarginalizingallopposition.
SincethecrisisinUkraine,LukashenkohassoughttodistancehimselfsomewhatfromMoscowand
rebuildbridgestotheWest.HiseffortshavemetwithreciprocalstepsonthepartoftheEU.137Someof
thisoutreachtotheWestisnodoubtduetothediminishingeconomicprospectsinrelationswithRussia
andtheneedforeconomicassistancetokeeptheregimeafloat.138
navigatingbetweenRussiaandtheWestprovedoverthecourseoftwodecadesandhisholdonpower
unchallenged,hecouldcontinuetomaneuverbetweenthetwoopposingsidesforanequallylongtime.
ThegreatestriskforLukashenkoorhissuccessorisinarapprochementwiththeWestthatRussiawould
findthreateningtoitsinterests.TheBelarusianborderisbarely300milesfromMoscow.Apro-Western
governmentinMinskwouldundoubtedlybeseenbytheKremlininequallythreateningtermsasUkraines
pursuitofanAssociationAgreementwiththeEU,ifnotmoreso.BelarusiscloselyintegratedinRussian
defenseplanstocounterNATORussiahasambitionsforfurtherintegrationandexpansionofitsmilitary
presencethere.139LukashenkosstatedoppositiontoaRussianairbaseinBelarusislikelytobeseenin
MoscowasasignthattheBelarusianleaderisnotareliableallyandcannotbetrusted.140
AchangeinBelarussstrategicorientation,eitherasaresultofadeliberatedecisionbyLukashenkoorhis
successor,orasaconsequenceofadomesticupheaval,couldforcetheKremlinshandtolaunchyet
anothermilitaryintervention.ThistimeitwouldbedirectlyonRussiasborderwiththreeNATOmember
statesLatvia,Lithuania,andPoland.
Impoverished,smallMoldovahasneverrecoveredfromthelegacyofitsconflictfrozensince1992
withtheRussianminorityinbreakawayTransnistria.Thecountryhasbeenshakenbyrepeatedscandals
andpoliticalproteststhathaveincapacitateditsgovernment.Moldovaremainsdividedbetweenthose
whoadvocateclosertieswithRomania,fromwhichitslargepartwassplitoffin1940asaresultofthe
Molotov-RibbentropPact,andthosewhowantclosertieswithRussia.141
Moldovaspoliticshasbeendysfunctionalformostofitshistoryasanindependentstate.Thereislittlein
thecountryscurrentpoliticaloreconomiclandscapeandoutlooktosuggestthatthenear-permanent
gridlockislikelytochangeandbereplacedbyabetter-functioninggovernmentthatwouldmovethe
countryclosereithertoRomaniaandtheEUortoRussia.Thepoliticalparalysisandeconomicstagnation
arethereforelikelytocontinueindefinitely,astheyhaveformuchofthepastquartercentury.
AnotherpossiblescenarioforMoldovaoverthenextdecadeoradecadeandahalfentailsagradual
migrationofMoldovancitizenstoRomania,takingadvantageofRomaniasofferofpassports.Thiswould
effectivelycontinuethetrendofworking-ageMoldovansleavingtheirhomelandasguestworkers
elsewhereinEuropeorinRussia.AccordingtoWorldBankdata,between2011and2015,personal
remittancesamountedtomorethan25percentofMoldovasGDP.142Russiaseconomicslowdownis
likelytoaffectMoldovanguestworkersthere,increasingpressurestomigratetoEurope.Russian
sanctionsagainstMoldovainretributionforitssigninganAssociationAgreementwiththeEUarelikelyto
furtherrestrictMoldovanguestworkersaccesstoRussia,thusincreasingpressuresformigrationto
Romania.143ThiswouldineffectstimulateagradualhollowingoutofMoldovaanditsdefactointegration
withRomania.Aslongasthisprocessdoesnottriggeractionsleadingtoamoreformalintegrationandan
adversereactionfromRussia,thestatusquoinMoldovawouldremain.
OneofRussiasmajorbreakthroughrelationshipsaftertheColdWarwaswithTurkey.Thetwohistorical
rivalsbuiltanewrelationshipbasedonrecognitionofmutualbenefits.144Turkeyquicklyemergedasa
majordestinationforRussiantraders,tourists,andenergycompanies.Turkishcompaniesestablished
themselvesintheRussianrealestatedevelopmentindustry,andTurkishagriculturalproducersfounda
readymarketfortheirexportsinRussia.145
DefyingthelegacyoftheColdWarandcenturiesofgeopoliticalrivalrypriortothat,RussiaandTurkey
developedapartnershipthatseemeddestinedtogetstronger.Theirpartnershipwasbuoyedbytwo
importantfactors.First,bothcountriesstruggledtofindtheirplaceinEurope,which,despitepromisesof
partnership,keptthematarmslength.Theotherfactorwastheblossomingpersonalrelationshipbetween
thetwocountriespresidents,PutinandRecepTayyipErdoan.Bothproudoftheirreputationsasstrong
leaderstransformingtheircountries,bothincreasinglyaccusedofauthoritarianbehaviorathomeand
criticizedforitabroad,thetwopresidentsweredescribedinaWashingtonPostarticlesheadlineas
madeforeachother.146ThecivilwarinSyria,inwhichRussiahassupportedthegovernmentofSyrian
PresidentBasharal-AssadandTurkeyhassoughttooverthrowit,hasintroducedfrictionsinthe
relationshipbetweenAnkaraandMoscowbutdidnotchangewhatPutindescribedasitsfriendlyand
cooperativenature.147
TheRussian-Turkishrelationship,whichhadbeenfullof
promiseanddeliveredmuchtobothcountries,almost
instantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithno
prospectofimprovementintheforeseeablefuture.
geopoliticalrivalry,occurredinlateNovember2015,whenaTurkishF-16fightershotdownaRussian
Su-24groundattackaircraft.148TheTurkishgovernmentsaidatthetimethattheRussianaircrafthad
violatedTurkishairspaceaclaimdisputedbytheRussiangovernment.PutindescribedTurkishactions
asastabinthebackandreferredtotheTurkishgovernmentasaccomplicesofterrorism.149Putin
reportedlyrefusedtheTurkishpresidentsoutreachattempts,andtheRussiangovernmentproceededto
imposeeconomicsanctionsonTurkey.150Arelationshipthathadbeenfullofpromiseforbothcountries
anddeliveredsomuchtobothalmostinstantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectof
improvementintheforeseeablefuture.151
HavingregainedCrimea,andwithitsecureditsholdontheBlackSeaFleetbaseinSevastopol,Russia
hassealedthetransformationoftheBlackSeaintoalong-termhostileenvironment.NoneoftheBlack
SealittoralstatescanbecountedonasapartnerbyRussianmilitaryplanners.AllexceptforUkraineand
GeorgiaareNATOmembers.KyivandTbilisiviewRussiaasanaggressorandthebiggestthreattotheir
survivalasindependentandsovereignstates,andbothhavemademembershipinthealliancethekeygoal
oftheirnationalsecuritypolicies.ThesituationintheBlackSearegionisfurtheraggravatedfrom
MoscowsstandpointbythebreakdowninRussian-TurkishrelationsfollowingRussiasmilitary
deploymenttoSyriaandtheshootingdownoftheRussianaircraftbyTurkey.
ThesituationintheSouthCaucasusishardlymorereassuringforRussiandefenseplanners,albeitfor
differentreasons,largelyunconnectedtoNATO.Theregion,hometothreefrozenconflictsinNagorno-
Karabakh,Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia,ishighlylikelytoundergomajorchangesasafunctionofits
internaldynamicsanddevelopmentsarounditinthenextfivetotenyears.
AmajordriverofchangeintheSouthCaucasuspromisestobeAzerbaijan.Hailedinthe1990sasa
secularIslamiccountrywithamoderateauthoritarianregimepresidedoverbyarelativelytolerantpro-
Westernleader,Azerbaijanalsohadvasteconomicpotentialthankstoitsoilwealthandopennessto
foreignoilcompaniesinvestment.Little,ifany,ofthatpromisehasmaterialized.Therelativelybenignand
confidentdictatorshipofHeydarAliyevwasreplacedin2003bythekleptocratic,increasinglyinsecure,
andhighlyintolerantregimeofhissonIlham.Theregimesappealtothepublicbasedonitsclaimof
deliveringameasureofwell-beinghasbeenerodedbythedeclineinthepriceofoilthathasdealtasevere
blowtoAzerbaijanseconomy.152Moreover,theprospectofdepletingitsmajoroildepositsthreatensthe
countrywiththelossofitscriticalsourceofrevenueatatimewhenitsalternativestrategyofpositioning
itselfasakeysupplierandtransithubofnaturalgashastocontendwiththesamefalloutfromthelowoil
priceenvironment.153
Theproteststhathaverockedthecountryastheeconomysputtersraisequestionsabouttheregimes
longevityandabilitytosustaindomesticstability.Intheeventofaprolongedeconomicslumpcausedby
lowoilprices,IlhamAliyevsregimewouldhaveseveraloptions,noneofthemmutuallyexclusive:to
continuetotightentherestrictionsontheoppositionandcivilsocietytotrytouseitsdecliningfinancial
resourcestoaddressthemostpressingneedsandtoappealtonationalunityandpatriotismbyexploiting
thethemeofNagorno-Karabakhandlaunchingamilitarycampaigntoregaintheoccupiedterritories.154
TheoutlookforAzerbaijancontainsbleakalternatives.Oneofthemisaninternaldestabilizationandloss
ofcontrolbytheregime.AnotherwouldberenewedconflictwithArmeniaoverNagorno-Karabakh.A
thirdpossibilityentailsboth.
IlhamAliyevssuppressionofnotjustalloppositionbutnearlyallcivicorganizationsandmanifestationsof
independentopinionhasunderminedAzerbaijanstieswithEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Asaresult,the
Westwouldnothavethenecessaryleveragetomoderatetheregimesbehaviordomesticallyor
internationally.155
ThefightingthatbrokeoutbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijaninApril2016servedasagrimreminderof
howfragilethesituationisalongtheirlineofcontact.Tomakemattersworse,acrisisinvolvingAzerbaijan
andArmeniacoulddrawintoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.Allthreehave
majorstakesintheregion.RussiaandTurkeywouldverylikelybepittedagainsteachotherinthenew
conflictsupportingtheirrespectiveclientstates.InternalturmoilinAzerbaijanevenwithoutaconflictwith
Armeniawouldalmostcertainlyinvolvemeddlingbyallthreeneighboringpowers,eachforitsown
reasonsseekingtoexpanditsinfluenceinthecountry,whichtheyconsidertobeofcriticalgeopolitical
importance.
AcrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddrawinto
itthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.
WithRussia,Turkey,andIrancompetingforinfluenceinAzerbaijan,thecountryandthesurrounding
regioncouldexperiencespilloversfromtheconflictandtheneighborsreactionstoit.Thesewouldalmost
certainlyaffectArmeniaandGeorgia,consideringtheboundarylinesdrawnwithoutregardtoethnic
divisions,andinfrastructureandsupplyroutesthattraversetheentireregion.
advantageofsharedborderswithAzerbaijan,whileTurkeyhastheadvantageofethnickinshipandlong-
terminvestmentintherelationshipwithAzerbaijan.However,Russiahashadtodealwithitsowntroubled
NorthCaucasusIranhastobemindfulofitsownAzerbaijaniTurkishpopulationandTurkeywouldhave
tocrossGeorgianorArmenianterritorytogettoAzerbaijan.Allofthesearelikelytobecomplicating
factorsfortheirinvolvementthere,thougheachofthesecomplicatingfactorscouldserveasarationalefor
interveninginAzerbaijaniturmoil.
TheturmoilcouldlastforyearsandbecomepartofthelargerturmoilintheMiddleEast,withIranand
TurkeypittedagainsteachotherinSyria,Russian-TurkishrelationsattheirworstsincetheColdWar,and
weapons,refugees,militants,andillicitgoodscrossinginalldirections.TheCaucasusregionmaynotsee
stabilityreturnforadecadeorlonger.
Onceameasureofstabilityisrestored,theregion,boththeNorthandtheSouthCaucasus,maynotbe
recognizable,withnewbordersandpossiblyevensomestatesdisappearingfromthemap.Theshapeof
theregionislikelytobedeterminedbydevelopmentsaroundtheregionRussiasowntrajectoryand
abilitytosecuretheNorthCaucasusTurkeysabilitytohandleitsKurdishproblemthefutureofIraq
andtheconflictinSyria.AllofthesewillhaveabearingontheCaucasusregion,whichisnolonger
separated,asitoncewas,fromtheGreaterMiddleEast.Whatisclear,however,isthattheregionis
headingintoanuncertainfuturefullofdangersallofthatonRussiasdoorstep.
CentralAsiaisinthemidstofabiggeopoliticalchangewhoseconsequencesforRussiaandEurasiaare
likelytobefeltinthenextdecadeandbeyond.Thefirstquartercenturyofindependenceforthefive
statesofformerlySovietCentralAsiawasatimeofestablishingtheirownstatehood,securingtheir
sovereignty,andbuildinglinkstotheoutsideworld.Formuchofthatperiod,theWest,andespeciallythe
UnitedStates,playedakeyroleasasupporterofthefivestatesindependence,sovereignty,and
integrationintotheinternationalarena.156
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russian
influencedown,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,the
regionisallbutcertaintoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientation
fromtheWesttotheEast.
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope,theWorldBank,andtheIMF,aswellasNATO
andtheEU.Moreover,thankstotheU.S.-ledcampaigninAfghanistan,theWestservedasamajor
securityprovidertoCentralAsiafornearlyadecadeandahalfaftertheSeptember11,2001,terrorist
attacks.Insum,forthefirstquartercenturyofCentralAsiasindependence,theWestplayedakeyrolein
ensuringtheregionssecurity.EvenRussia,asaEuropeanpower,albeitnotcontenttoseetheUnited
StatesanditsNATOalliesinvolvedinitsjealouslyguardedbackyard,ineffectservedasaconnectionto
EuropeforCentralAsia.
Thatisnowchanging.TheUnitedStatesisactivelylookingtodisengagefromAfghanistan,oratthevery
leasttominimizeitsrolethere,whilemanyU.S.allieshavepulledtheirforcesoutofAfghanistan
altogether.TheWestsroleasasecurityproviderforCentralAsiaisending.
Tradeandinvestmentflows,too,aredrivingCentralAsiatowardadifferentgravitationalpolefromthe
WestChina.ChinastradewithCentralAsiahasincreasedmorethanahundredfoldinthepastquarter
centuryandpassedthe$50billionmarkin2013.Chineseinvestmentinpipelines,roads,andenergy
explorationismeasuredinthetensofbillionsofdollarsandisprojectedtogrowfurther,asChinaplans
ambitiousnewprojectsfortheregioninthenextdecade.Russiahasbeenlosingtheeconomiccompetition
withChinainCentralAsia,whiletheUnitedStatesandEuropebarelyregisterastradepartners.157
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantinCentral
Asia,theregionisallbutcertainfortheforeseeablefuturetoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfromthe
West,towhichitwasleaningduringthefirstquartercenturyofitsindependence,totheEast.Thisis
boundtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforallinvolved.
FortheCentralAsianstates,aswellasforRussiaandChina,thismeansthattheUnitedStateswillno
longerbeprovidingsecurityfortheregion.AgreaterburdeninthisrespectwillfallontheCentralAsia
statesthemselves,aswellasontheirimmediateneighbors,especiallyRussiaandChina.Thisraisesthe
questionofRussiasabilitytoactastheregionssecuritymanagerforCentralAsiainlightofMoscows
limitedcapabilitiesandchallengeselsewhere,andofChinaswilltoengageintheregioninaroleithas
beenreluctanttoassume.Theresultofthischangewillbegreateruncertaintyandpotentiallygreater
instabilityfacingRussianplannersastheycontemplatethefutureoftheregionthattheyhavelongviewed
asamajorvulnerabilityontheirperiphery.ItseemsnothingisstableandsecureonRussiasthreshold
anywhere,initsfrontyardoritsbackyard.
Conclusion
neighborsandfeelsdeeplythreatenedbythem.Itssenseofvulnerabilityandinferiorityvis--vistheWest
islong-standinganddeep,anditissurroundedbyavast,diverse,andturbulentregionwithamultitudeof
potentialcrisesthatholdoutthepossibilityofescalatingintolargerconflicts.Thisunstablesituationin
EuropesEastandEurasiaisaproductoftheinterplayoverthepasttwenty-fiveyearsofmultiplefactors,
bothindigenoustotheirhomeregionsandresultingfromactionsofoutsidepowersandexternal
developments.
ChiefamongthesefactorsisRussiasownevolutionfromaquietlydissenting,grumbling,butnonetheless
largelypassivebystanderindevelopmentofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityarchitectureintoits
activeopponentandastatecapableofprojectingpowerarounditsperipheryandassertingitselfbeyond
itsimmediateneighborhoodindefenseofitsinterests.Aseriesofeventsthe2008Russian-Georgian
War,the2014annexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,theemergenceofsecuritythreatsto
theBaltics,theeconomicstormsbuffetingRussiasneighborsfromMoldovatoTajikistanillustrateshow
muchswayRussiacontinuestoholdoverthesecurityandwell-beingofthepost-Sovietstates,nomatter
howmuchtheyhavetriedtoleavethatlabelbehindandbreakoutoftheRussiansphereofinfluence.
prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisfarmorelikelytobeasourceofthesametoitsneighborsthan
thealternativeaninsecure,unstable,andstrugglingRussia,whichhascastalonganddarkshadowover
them.
UnfortunatelyforRussiasneighborsandfortheirfriends,allies,andpartners,theprospectofastable,
prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisremote.Theoutlookforthecountryfortheforeseeablefutureis
bleakabsentmajorreforms,whereassuchreformsappearunlikely.
permeatesRussianassessmentsofthecountryseconomicconditionandprospects,itspoliticalstability,
anditsmilitaryinrelationtothethreatsandchallengestoitssecurity.Foremostamongthesesecurity
threats,intheviewofRussiandefenseexperts,isNATO,followedcloselybyfragilestatesaround
Russiasperiphery.
Thetransatlanticsecurityorderintendedasaframeworkforbringingunity,security,andstabilitytoallof
Europe,includingRussia,isseenbyitssecurityestablishmentastheprincipalchallengetoitssecurityand
stability,intendedtoexploititsmanyvulnerabilities.ThisassessmentofWesternmotivesandactions
resultingfromthemhasenduredwithremarkableconsistencyintheRussiannationalsecuritynarrative
sincetheearliestdaysofthepost-SovietRussianstatetothepresent.ItisthedominantviewinMoscows
nationalsecurityestablishmentwithnodissentingvoicesofanyconsequence.
EquallyenduringandwidespreadamongRussianelitesandexpertsistheperceptionofRussiasdeep
inferiorityeconomically,militarilyvis--vistheWest.ThecombinationofRussiasinsecurityandits
perceptionoftheWestshostilitytoithasbeentheprincipaldriverofRussiansecuritypolicy.The
rejectionofexpansionbyNATOandtheEUintocountriesapparentlygenuinelyviewedbyRussian
policymakersaswithintheirsphereofprivilegedinterests,coupledwiththefearoftheWesternsecurity
andpoliticalorderapproachingRussiasborders,wasthekeymotivatorbehindthewarwithGeorgiaand
theundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.ThisunderlyingRussianworldviewisunlikelytochangeinthe
foreseeablefuture.
TheemergingnewsecurityorderwithNATOrethinkingitspostColdWarpostureforthefirsttimeina
quartercenturyandrebuildingitsdeterrentcapabilitiesandwithRussiabuildingupitsmilitarycapabilities
alongitswesternborderisunstableandunpredictable.BothRussiaandtheWestfeelinsecureand
compelledtodomore,raisingtherisksofanescalatorydynamicinthenameofdefenseanddeterrence.
NothingjustifiesRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine,whichviolatedmultipleRussianinternational
commitmentsandhastriggeredtheworstpoliticalandsecuritycrisisinEuropeinageneration.However,
indevisingtheirresponsetoRussianactions,Westernpolicymakersshouldbeclearaboutthedriversand
motivationsofRussianactionstheinsecurityandperceptionofvulnerabilityasregardstheWest,
ingrainedinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentforageneration.Westernpolicymakersshouldalsobe
clearthatMoscowhasneveracceptedtheargumentthattheexpansionofWesterninstitutionswasmeant
asamovetowarditratherthanagainstit.
especiallytheBalticstates,mustnotoverlookthefactthattheBalticstatesmembershipinNATOhas
meanttoRussianmilitaryplannersthatNATO,stillseenasahostilealliance,isnowonly100milesfrom
SaintPetersburg,andthatthecurrentbuildupofNATOcapabilitiesintheBalticstatesisoccurringless
thanatwo-hourdrivefromRussiassecondmostimportantcity.Westernpolicymakersshouldhaveno
illusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrentcapabilitiesinthefrontlinestateswillhaveastabilizing
effectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.ThebuildupofRussiananti-accessandarea-denial
(A2/AD)capabilitiesinCrimeaandKaliningradandthreatstodeploynuclearweaponstherearestrong
indicatorsthattensionswillincreaseratherthansubsideintheseregions.158
Inthiscontext,themostdisturbingaspectofthisrenewedadversarialrelationshipisthereturnofthe
specterofnuclearwartotheEuropeancontinent.Russiaslong-standingperceivedinferiorityvis--vis
NATOsconventionalcapabilitiesandtheirproximitytotheRussianheartlandhavegivenrisetoamilitary
strategythatassignsacriticalroletolimitednuclearstrikesearlyinaconflictasameansofthwarting
NATOsconventionaldominanceandendingtheconflictbeforeitresultsindevastatinglossestothe
heartland.Defenseofthehomelandhastakenonenhancedprioritybecauseafterthelossoftheouterand
innerempiresandtheexpansionofNATO,ithasbecometheforwardareainanyfutureconflictbetween
RussiaandNATO.
Needlesstosay,anyuseofnuclearweaponswillbeadecisionmadebyRussiaspoliticalleadership,and
expertwritingsaboutearlynuclearuseshouldnotbetreatedasareliableindicatoroffutureRussian
actions.Nonetheless,theprominenceofnuclearweaponsinRussianstrategicthoughtisindicativeofthe
countrysperceivedvulnerabilitiesandintensityoftheadversarialrelationshipwiththeWest.
FortheUnitedStatesanditsallies,thisposesadauntingchallengehowtorespondtoRussianactionsin
amannerthatensuresacredible,robustdeterrentposturethatisstabilizinganddoesnotfeedRussias
worstperceptionsofitsownvulnerabilities.Relianceonnucleardeterrenceinthiscontextcouldprove
escalatoryandreinforceRussianmilitaryplannersnuclearleanings,whilerelianceonconventionalmeans
wouldunderscoreRussiasperceivedvulnerabilities.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussia
andtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythaninEastern
Europe.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythan
inEasternEuropethestatesoftheformerSovietUnionthathavenotjoinedtheEuro-Atlanticpolitical,
economic,andsecurityinstitutionsandareunwillingtojointheRussian-dominatedcounterpartEurasian
structures.Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainehavebecomethebattleground
states,toonedegreeoranotherpulledindifferentdirectionsinthegeopoliticaltug-of-warbetweenRussia
andtheWest.
Much,ifnotmost,oftheattentionfollowingRussiasaggressionagainstUkrainehasbeenfocusedonthe
BalticstatesastheNATOalliesmostexposedandvulnerabletoRussianattack.Balticdefenseis
undoubtedlyamajorchallengeforthealliance.However,Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincethe
aggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthatMoscowstilltakesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofits
membersseriouslyandthatitisnotpreparedtotestthatguaranteedirectly.Rather,itsactions
informationandcyberoperations,airspaceviolations,nuclearsaberrattling,andthelikeappearaimedat
creatinganairofuncertaintyaboutthatguaranteeandunderminingmemberstatesconfidenceinit.
RussianleadershavedemonstratedtwicebytheiractionsinGeorgiain2008andinUkrainesince2014
thattheytakethatguaranteeseriously.Russianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventthetwocountries
frommovingclosertotheWestandeventuallyastheysawitjoiningNATO.
LackingNATOssecurityguarantee,theyremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivileged
interests.Itispreparedtouseallavailablemeans,includingmilitaryforce,tokeeptheminthatsphere.As
longastheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenafor
East-Westcompetition.
Despitethisadversarialrelationship,inmanyinstances,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillhavenochoice
buttocooperatewithRussia,oratleastseekitsconsenttopursuetheirinterestsinEurasia.Besidesthe
obviousexamplesofSyria,Afghanistan,ornucleartalkswithIran,inallofwhichRussiahasplayedan
importantpart,futureexamplesofsuchsituationsmayinvolvecontingenciesinEasternEurope,theSouth
Caucasus,orCentralAsia.Inallofthoselocations,whetherforreasonsofgeography,politics,or
economics,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillneedtogetRussiaonboardtobeabletorespondto
naturaldisasters,humanitariancrises,regionalconflicts,orotherunforeseenevents.
RussiaorNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremain
thekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderforthe
foreseeablefuture.
Moreover,evenintimeswhencircumstancesforceRussiaandtheWesttocooperate,Russiaislikelyto
sustainitsotherdestabilizingbehaviors.Theuseofmeasuresshortofwareconomicleversinstatesthat
arevulnerable,suchasBulgaria,Cyprus,orGreeceandbribery,blackmail,infiltrationofintelligence
operatives,andanassortmentofothertacticswillbepartofthetoolkitdeployedbyRussian
policymakersintimesofcrisis,aswellasinpeacetimeaspartofthenormalcontinuationofwarfareby
othermeans.
Russiasrelianceontheseformsofcompetitionshortofoutrightwarfareisfullyjustifiedintheeyesofthe
countryssecurityestablishmentasasymmetricmeanswarrantedbytheperceivedRussia-NATO
imbalance.RussianrelianceonthemandtheintensityofitsoppositiontotheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder
areunlikelytodiminishifitseconomicprospectsordomesticstabilityerode.Onthecontrary,such
reliancemaybecomeevengreaterasotherinstrumentsinitstoolkitbecomescarcer.
AsseenfromRussia,theenvironmentinEuropeandEurasiahasleftMoscowwithoutreliablepartners,let
aloneallies.NATOsexpansionhaspositionedthealliance,viewedbyRussianelitesasadversarial,onthe
countrysdoorstep,farcloserthanithaseverbeen.TheothersideofthiscoinisthatRussiaison
NATOsdoorstepasithasneverbeenbefore.Theresultisastateofprofoundmutualinsecurity.Absent
majorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussiaorNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremain
thekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakea
political,notamilitary,solutiontoaddressthesetensions.
Notes
1AEuropeWholeandFree,transcriptofremarksbyPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushtothecitizensin
Mainz,FederalRepublicofGermany,U.S.DiplomaticMissiontoGermany,May31,1989,
http://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/ga6-890531.htm.
2DmitriTrenin,TheCrisisinCrimeaCouldLeadtheWorldIntoaSecondColdWar,Guardian,
March2,2014,http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-
cold-war.
4OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),HelsinkiFinalAct,August1,1975,
http://www.osce.org/mc/39501.
5OSCE,CharterofParisforaNewEurope,November21,1990,http://www.osce.org/node/39516.
7,:,
,281992,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/31532.
8Ibid.
9YevgeniyAmbartsumov,InteresyRossiiNeZnayutGranits[Russianinterestsknownoborders],
Megapolis-Express,May6,1992.
12JanePerlez,YeltsinUnderstandsPolishBidforaRoleinNATO,NewYorkTimes,August26,
1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/26/world/yeltsin-understands-polish-bid-for-a-role-in-nato.html.
13RogerCohen,YeltsinOpposesExpansionofNATOinEasternEurope,NewYorkTimes,October
2,1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/02/world/yeltsin-opposes-expansion-of-nato-in-eastern-
europe.html.
14Ibid.
15JamestownFoundation,ChubaisDemandsCompensationforNATOEnlargement,Monitor3,no.
84(April1997).
16SamuelHuntington,TheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrder(NewYork:
Simon&Schuster,1996)ZbigniewBrzezinski,TheGrandChessboard:AmericanPrimacyandIts
GeostrategicImperatives(NewYork:BasicBooks,1997).
19Http://www.pressarchive.ru/nijegorodskie-novosti/1999/08/21/135100.html(pagediscontinued).
20:,
,,172015,http://glavred.info/mir/zhurnalist-rf-o-motivacii-putina-pomnit-
sudby-miloshevicha-kaddafi-i-dedushki-pinocheta-323242.html.
21CelesteA.Wallander,RussianNationalSecurityPolicyin2000(PONARS[ProgramonNew
ApproachestoRussianSecurity]PolicyMemo102,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,Harvard
University,2000)NikolaiSokov,TheViewsoftheMilitaryLeadership,inModernizationofStrategic
NuclearWeaponsinRussia:TheEmergingNewPosture(PONARSWorkingPaperNo.6,Davis
CenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,May1998).
24UweKlumann,MatthiasSchepp,andKlausWiegrefe,NATOsEastwardExpansion:DidtheWest
BreakItsPromisetoMoscow?,SpiegelOnline,November26,2009,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-
moscow-a-663315.html.
Expansion,ForeignAffairs,September/October2014,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-
fsu/2014-08-11/broken-promise.
26SergeyLavrov,Democracy,InternationalGovernance,andtheFutureWorldOrder,Russiain
GlobalAffairs,no.1(February9,2005):http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_4422.
28StevenErlanger,Putin,atNATOMeeting,CurbsCombativeRhetoric,NewYorkTimes,April5,
2008,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/world/europe/05nato.htmlTextofPutinsSpeechatNATO
Summit(Bucharest,April2,2008),UnianInformationAgency,April18,2008,
http://www.unian.info/world/111033-text-of-putins-speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-2008.html.
30ChristianLowe,GeorgiaWarShowsRussianArmyStrongbutFlawed,Reuters,August20,2008,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-ossetia-military-idUSLK23804020080820.
31RussianMilitaryCapability,FOI(SwedishDefenceResearchAgency),http://www.foi.se/en/Our-
Knowledge/Security-policy-studies/Russia/Russian-Military-Capability/.
34DavidM.HerszenhornandEllenBarry,LargeAnti-PutinProtestSignalsGrowingResolve,New
YorkTimes,June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/europe/anti-putin-demonstrators-
gather-in-moscow.htmlHundredsDetainedAfterMoscowAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March5,
2012,http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2012/mar/05/russian-election-reaction-putin-liveRussian
PresidentDmitryMedvedevAdmitsPoliticalReformNecessary,Telegraph,December22,2011,
36KarounDemirjian,MeanwhileinRussia,PutinPassesLawAgainstProtests,WashingtonPost,July
22,2014,http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/meanwhile-in-russia-putin-
passes-law-against-protests/MiriamElder,RussiansFearCrackdownasHundredsAreArrestedAfter
Anti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March6,2012,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/06/russians-crackdown-anti-putin-protestKathyLallyand
KarenDeYoung,PutinAccusesClinton,U.S.ofFomentingElectionProtests,WashingtonPost,
December8,2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-clinton-us-of-stirring-
election-protests/2011/12/08/gIQA0MUDfO_story.html.
37D.GarrisonGolubock,CultureMinistryAffirmsRussiaIsNotEurope,MoscowTimes,April7,
2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/arts_n_ideas/article/culture-ministry-affirms-russia-is-not-
europe/497658.html.
38VladimirPutin,ANewIntegrationProjectforEurasia:TheFutureintheMaking,Izvestia,October
3,2011,asreprintedbythePermanentMissionoftheRussianFederationtotheEuropeanUnion,
http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-integration-project-
eurasia-future-making-izvestia-3-.
39Ibid.
CustomsUnion(PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemoNo.293,September2013)tefanFle,Statement
onthePressureExercisedbyRussiaonCountriesoftheEasternPartnership,pressrelease,European
Commission,September11,2013.
42AlexandraMcLeesandEugeneRumer,SavingUkrainesDefenseIndustry,CarnegieEndowment
forInternationalPeace,July30,2014,http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/07/30/saving-ukraine-s-
defense-industry.
nato.3702073.html.
46DanLamothe,RussiaIsGreatestThreattotheU.S.,SaysJointChiefsChairmanNomineeGen.
JosephDunford,WashingtonPost,July9,2015,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/09/russia-is-greatest-threat-to-the-u-s-
says-joint-chiefs-chairman-nominee-gen-joseph-dunford/.
47JulianE.Barnes,NATOsBreedloveCallsforSharperFocusonRussiaAheadofDeparture,Wall
StreetJournal,May1,2016,http://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-breedlove-calls-for-sharper-focus-on-
russia-ahead-of-departure-1462115561TheodoreSchleiferandJimSciutto,TopArmyLeader:Russia
IsMostDangerousThreatFacingU.S.,CNN,August12,2015,
49,,,,,15
2016,http://www.ng.ru/courier/2016-02-15/9_friends.html.
50,,11
51,,31
52,:
,,102015,
53NATO-RussiaRelations:TheFacts,NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,lastupdatedDecember17,
2015,http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm.
54,,,23
55RussianNationalSecurityStrategy,December2015Full-TextTranslation,InstitutoEspaolde
EstudiosEstratgicos,December31,2015,
http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-
Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf.
57,,,222015,
58,:,
(),232015,http://svop.ru/
/lectorium/18389/.
59,,.,29,2015,
.
60,.
61,.
,,302015,
62,:.
63,:,,
152016,http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2016/01/15/624167-gref-rossiya.
64,2023-:
,,212015,
,http://svop.ru.
653.,,302015,
66,:,
67:,
,222016,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3303885,,
,292016,http://kommersant.ru/doc/2975531.
68,,,182015,http://vpk-
69Ibid.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33153703AdamWithnall,RussiaThreatensDenmarkWith
NuclearWeaponsifItTriestoJoinNATODefenceShield,Independent,March22,2015.
71DavidLermanandTerryAtlas,RussiasSaber-RattlingThreatensStability,U.S.Says,Bloomberg,
June25,2015,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-denmark-with-
nuclear-weapons-if-it-tries-to-join-nato-defence-shield-10125529.html.
72,,,
,272015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-11-27/1_stairway.html.
73MaryC.Fitzgerald,MarshalOgarkovonModernWar:19771985,ProfessionalPaper443.10,
CenterforNavalAnalyses,revisedNovember1986.
74DoctorStrangeloveDoomsdayMachine,YouTubevideo,postedbyliberalartist6,July31,
2010,http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yfXgu37iyI.
76,,-,252015,
http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24405.
77DavidE.Hoffman,In1983WarScare,SovietLeadershipFearedNuclearSurpriseAttackby
U.S.,WashingtonPost,October24,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-
1983-war-scare-soviet-leadership-feared-nuclear-surprise-attack-by-us/2015/10/24/15a289b4-7904-
11e5-a958-d889faf561dc_story.html.
78Forathoroughdiscussionofthis,seePavelPodvig,DidStarWarsHelpEndtheColdWar?Soviet
ResponsetotheSDIProgram(workingpaper,RussianNuclearForcesProject,March17,2013).
79:,
80Ibid.
81,,-
82,,
,282012,http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2012-09-
28/11_satan.html.
83,-,282013,http://vpk-
news.ru/news/16557.
84Ibid,,.,18
,,2013,
http://www.intertrends.ru/thirty-second/Volodin.pdf...
,Viperson.ru,302012,
http://viperson.ru/wind.php?ID=652675.
85,
,
:,-,,
,202020.,http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/em092012.htm.
86,,,-
,132014,http://www.vko.ru/geopolitika/ugrozy-bezopasnosti-rossii.
87,,,-,
88Ibid.
89RussiaHasDeliveredOver1,000AirstrikesinSyriaSinceStartofYearGeneral,TASS,January
11,2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/848749.
90,,,23
91StepanKravchenko,PutinTellsDefenseChiefstoStrengthenRussianNuclearForces,Bloomberg,
December11,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/putin-tells-defense-chiefs-to-
strengthen-russian-nuclear-forces.
92,
,,122014,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-09-
12/1_oborona.html.
93,:4202,
,,222015,
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/07/22/istochnik-rossiya-ispytyvaet-giperzvukovoy-obekt-4202-kotoryy-
obescenit-amerikanskuyu-pro.html.
94,-.,
95,:4202,
,,222015,
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/07/22/istochnik-rossiya-ispytyvaet-giperzvukovoy-obekt-4202-kotoryy-
obescenit-amerikanskuyu-pro.html.
96PetrTopychkanov,IsRussiaAfraidofChineseandIndianMissiles?CarnegieMoscowCenter,
November3,2014,http://carnegie.ru/2014/11/03/is-russia-afraid-of-chinese-and-indian-missiles.
97,Newsru.com,4
98,,,3
2014,http://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2014-10-03/1_strike.html.
99,,,-
100:
101Ibid.
102,,
15/10_infowar.html.
103:
105:,
106,,31
107AgenceFrance-Presse,VladimirPutinWarnsRussianstoAvoidGoogle:TheInternetIsaCIA
SpecialProject,RawStory,April24,2014,http://www.rawstory.com/2014/04/vladimir-putin-warns-
russians-to-avoid-google-the-internet-is-a-cia-special-project/RussiaandChinaWantMoreControl
OvertheInternet,Stratfor,August14,2015,http://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/russia-and-china-
want-more-control-over-internet.
108,:,
,212016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/21/ru-63383/ixdw
,,,32015,
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2781186.
109,,122016,
110,.,
111MasterCard,VisaNowProcessRussianPaymentsThroughSanction-ProofSystem,Moscow
Times,May28,2015,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mastercard-visa-now-process-
russian-payments-through-sanction-proof-system/522576.html.
112TASS,RussiaMayUseChinasPaymentInfrastructureInsteadofSWIFTVTBBankHead,
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines,March11,2015,
113RussiaBrainstormsStrategytoReplaceBannedWesternDefenseImports,MoscowTimes,August
14,2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-brainstorms-strategy-to-replace-
banned-western-defense-imports/505133.html.
114PutinsDeoffshorizationBringsMajorFirmsBacktoTaxman,MoscowTimes,December20,
2013,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putins-deoffshorization-brings-major-firms-back-
to-taxman/491910.html.
116RobinNiblett,NATOMustFocusontheHybridWarsBeingWagedontheWest,Financial
Times,July17,2014,http://next.ft.com/content/3192c7a0-0cd2-11e4-bf1e-00144feabdc0John
Vandiver,SACEUR:AlliesMustPrepareforRussiaHybridWar,StarsandStripes,September4,
2014,http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-must-prepare-for-russia-hybrid-war-1.301464.
118,(:,2015),
%D0%A1.%D0%90.,
%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2
%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf,
,-,18
,.,242015,http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2529147.
119,,,142014,
(II),,
132015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-03-13/1_gybrid2.html,
:,,222016,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-10-10/1_nato.html.
120,:,
121,,,302015,
122Ibid.
123ShaunWalker,AlexisTsiprasinMoscowAsksEuropetoEndSanctionsAgainstRussia,Guardian,
April8,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/08/alexis-tsipras-in-moscow-asks-europe-
to-end-sanctions-against-russiaGeorgiGotev,BulgarianParliamentAlmostRejectedtheEUSanctions
AgainstRussia,EurActiv,October8,2015,http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-
east/news/bulgarian-parliament-almost-rejected-the-eu-sanctions-against-russia/.
124IvoOliveira,NationalFrontSeeksRussianCashforElectionFight,PoliticoEurope,February19,
2016,http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-russia-crimea-putin-money-bank-national-front-seeks-russian-
cash-for-election-fight/.
125MelanieAmannetal.,TheHybridWar:RussiasPropagandaCampaignAgainstGermany,Spiegel
Online,January30,2016,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/putin-wages-hybrid-war-on-
germany-and-west-a-1075483.htmlTheCzechsandRussia:SpyVersusPolitician,Economist,
October29,2014,http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2014/10/czechs-and-russia
GregoryFeiferandBrianWhitmore,CzechPowerGames:HowRussiaIsRebuildingInfluenceinthe
FormerSovietBloc,RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty,September25,2010,
AleksTapinsh,LatviaSeesGoodandBadasRussianMoneyHaven,Reuters,October23,2012,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-latvia-russia-banks-idUSBRE89M0S120121023.
126,,,231995,
--9785d26186b2#.byb71wmzt.
127DmitryZhdannikovandGuyFaulconbridge,KhodorkovskySaysPutinIsLeadingRussiaToward
Stagnation,Collapse,Reuters,November27,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-
khodorkovsky-west-idUSKBN0TF23920151126.
128Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,atacticalmovebyPutintotheprimeministersofficewouldnot
constituteameaningfulbreakwithPutinism.ThisanalysisalsoassumesthatPutinremainshealthyandthat
therewillbenocoupagainsthimfortheremainderofhiscurrentterm.
http://www.minchenko.ru/netcat_files/File/Politburo_2014_ENG1_pre_final1.pdfRussia:TheStruggles
WithinPartI,Stratfor,January9,2008,http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-struggles-within-part-i.
130NeilMacFarquhar,RussiansAnxietySwellsasOilPricesCollapse,NewYorkTimes,January22,
2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/world/europe/russians-anxiety-swells-as-oil-prices-
collapse.htmlTomBalmforth,SacredGround:MuscovitesProtestChurchConstructioninPark,Radio
FreeEurope/FreeLiberty,June26,2015,http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-moscow-church-protest-
torfyanka-park/27095836.htmlAlexeyMalashenko,DivisionsandDefianceAmongRussiasMuslims,
CarnegieMoscowCenter,November20,2015,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/11/20/divisions-
and-defiance-among-russia-s-muslims/im56MiriamElder,MoscowRiotsExposeRacismattheHeart
ofRussianFootball,Guardian,December18,2010,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/spartak-moscow-race-riots-ultranationalistAlexey
MalashenkoandAlexeyStarostin,TheRiseofNontraditionalIslamintheUrals,CarnegieMoscow
Center,September30,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/30/rise-of-nontraditional-islam-in-urals/iie6.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-04-25/putin-s-medieval-peace-pact-in-chechnyaMichael
Schwirtz,RussianAngerGrowsOverChechnyaSubsidies,NewYorkTimes,October8,2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/europe/chechnyas-costs-stir-anger-as-russia-approaches-
elections.htmlEx-MinisterSaysRussiaWillCutDefenseBudgetin23Years,TASS,January13,
2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/849380RussiatoCutSocialSpendingin2016,RT,January14,2016,
http://www.rt.com/business/328915-russia-social-spending-2016/MoscowProtestersRallyAgainst
BudgetCutsinScience,Education,RT,June6,2015,http://www.rt.com/news/265495-moscow-
protest-science-education/EugeneVorotnikov,GovernmentPlanstoCut10%OffUniversityFunding,
UniversityWorldNews,February20,2015,http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?
story=20150220085025625.
MoscowCenter,October15,2015,http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=61623,
,,242015,
http://www.rbc.ru/society/24/03/2015/551134c29a7947727d49866d,
,,30
2015,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-30/1_otredaktora.html.
133RobertBurns(AssociatedPress),NATOOfficial:RussiaNowanAdversary,YahooNews,May1,
2014,http://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-official-russia-now-adversary-150211090--politics.html?ref=gs.
October6,2015,http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/622080/nato-leader-says-russia-
building-arc-of-steel-in-europeNaftaliBendavid,NATORampsUpResponsetoRussia,WallStreet
Journal,June24,2015,http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-ramps-up-response-to-russia-1435174136.
135NeutralEuropeanCountries:Austria,Switzerland,Sweden,Finland,Ireland,SloveniaandNATO,
http://nato.gov.si/eng/topic/national-security/neutral-status/neutral-countries/TheEffectsofFinlands
PossibleNATOMembership,MinistryofForeignAffairsofFinland,April29,2016,
http://formin.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?contentid=345685TomasBertelman,JohanMolander,and
Sven-OlofPeterson,APowerfulCaseforSwedishMembershipinNATO,NATOSource(blog),
AtlanticCouncil,August21,2015,http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/a-powerful-case-for-
swedish-membership-in-nato.
DefenseOne,April2,2015,http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/04/anti-accessarea-denial-isnt-just-
asia-anymore/109108/.
137AgenceFrance-Presse,BelarusPoll:EULiftsSanctionsonLukashenkoEuropesLastDictator,
Guardian,October12,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/belarus-poll-eu-lifts-
sanctions-on-lukashenko-europes-last-dictator.
138SabraAyres,AsBelarusEconomyFalters,LukashenkoLooksWest,AlJazeeraAmerica,January
3,2016,http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2016/1/as-belarus-economy-falters-lukashenko-looks-
west.html.
139AnasMarin,TradingOffSovereignty.TheOutcomeofBelarussIntegrationWithRussiainthe
SecurityandDefenceField,OrodekStudiwWschodnich,April29,2013,
http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-04-29/trading-sovereignty-outcome-
belaruss-integration-russiaChrisBiggers,RussianAirbaseinBelarusRemainsinLimbo,Bellingcat,
December27,2015,http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/12/27/russian-airbase-
belarus-remains-limbo/.
140YurasKarmanau(AssociatedPress),BelarusPresidentSaysHeDoesntWantRussianAirBase,
VoiceofAmerica,October6,2015,http://www.voanews.com/content/belarus-president-says-he-does-
not-want-russian-air-base/2993864.htmlChristopherHarress,ScaredbyUkraineWar,Belarus
StrongmanLukashenkoMullsDitchingRussia,InternationalBusinessTimes,January31,2015,
http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-ukraine-war-belarus-strongman-lukashenko-mulls-ditching-russia-
1801070MikalaiAnishchanka,IsBelarusandRussiasBrotherlyLoveComingtoanEnd?
Guardian,May29,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/belarus-russia-brotherly-
love-ukraine-crisis.
141KitGillet,OppositionGroupsinMoldovaUnitetoProtestNewGovernment,NewYorkTimes,
January25,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/world/europe/oppositions-groups-in-moldova-
unite-to-protest-new-government.html.
February24,2016,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-02-24/why-russia-and-turkey-
fight.
147Cengizandar,PutinSupportsErdoganinTurkey,butNotinSyria,Al-Monitor,September24,
2015,http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-russia-putin-not-supports-erdogan-in-
syria.htmlNewsConferenceFollowingStateVisittoTurkey,OfficialInternetResourcesofthe
PresidentofRussia,December1,2014,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47126.
149AndreyBiryukov,PutinSaysTurkishStabinBackCausedRussianWarplaneCrash,Bloomberg,
November24,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/putin-says-turkish-stab-in-
back-caused-russian-warplane-crash.
150RaziyeAkkocandRolandOliphant,VladimirPutinRefusestoSpeaktoTurkishPresidentOver
AnkarasLackofApology,Telegraph,November27,2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12020980/Vladimir-Putin-refuses-to-speak-
to-Turkish-president-over-Ankaras-lack-of-apology.html.
151WorstinDecades,NoWaytoImproveforNowKremlinonRussia-TurkeyRelations,RT,
February9,2016,http://www.rt.com/news/331878-russia-turkey-relations-worst/.
152AzerbaijansEconomyinDireStraitsasOilPricesKeepTanking,Oilprice.com,January14,2016,
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Azerbaijans-Economy-In-Dire-Straits-As-Oil-
Prices-Keep-Tanking.html.
153JackFarchy,BakuSeeksAlternativesasAzerbaijanOilProductionDeclines,FinancialTimes,
March12,2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b86cb5b4-be99-11e4-8036-00144feab7deAzerbaijan
countryreport,U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,
Protests,Guardian,January15,2016,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/azerbaijan-
forced-to-cut-bread-taxes-after-widespread-protests.
155AzerbaijanCancelsEUDelegationVisitAfterCriticismofRightsRecord,Reuters,September11,
2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-azerbaijan-europe-idUSKCN0RB1U920150911U.S.
CriticizesAzerbaijanCrackdown,RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty,December2,2014,
http://www.rferl.org/content/journalists-in-trouble-us-criticizes-azerbaijan-crackdown/26720682.html.
156Formoreonthis,seeEugeneRumer,RichardSokolsky,andPaulStronski,U.S.PolicyToward
CentralAsia3.0,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,January25,2016.
157Ibid.
158SydneyJ.FreedbergJr.,RussiansinSyriaBuildingA2/ADBubbleOverRegion:Breedlove,
BreakingDefense,September28,2015,http://breakingdefense.com/2015/09/russians-in-syria-building-
a2ad-bubble-over-region-breedlove/StevenPifer,RussianNukesinCrimea?ABetterWayto
Respond,BrookingsInstitution,February2,2015,
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/02-russia-nuclear-weapons-crimea-better-us-
response-piferStevenErlanger,NATORatchetsUpMissileDefenseDespiteRussianCriticism,New
YorkTimes,May5,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/nato-russia-poland.html.
From: eugeneRumer<[email protected]>
Senttime: 07/06/201610:55:10PM
IaminFrankfurt,flyinghomeinafewhrs.Yougotosleep.
SentfrommyiPhone
Gotosleep,Gene.
SentfrommyiPad
RussiasannexationofCrimeainMarch2014wasthelateststepinMoscowslongprocessof
rejectionofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder,reflectingadeeplyheldviewthatis
unlikelytochangeanytimesoon.WesternstrategywillneedtoadjusttoRussiasconceptionofits
interestsandprioritiesinandaroundEurope.
Westernencroachmentonthecountryssecurity,economic,andgeopoliticalinterests,aswell
asontheirholdonpowerinRussia.
politics,anddefense.ItisreinforcedbyRussianelitesconcernsabouttheinternalweakness
ofthecountryanditsdirection.Italsoservesasatoolfortheelitestomobilizethe
populationinthefaceofexternalthreats.Theelitesrecognizethatthecountryisinasystemic
crisisbutfearthatsolutionscouldprovedestabilizing.
ThelackofconfidenceintheirdefensecapabilitieshasledRussianmilitaryexpertsto
considerstrategiesforearlynuclearescalationasadeterrentandcountermeasuretothe
Westsperceivedconventionalsuperiority.TheWestsplansforimprovingconventional
capabilitiesandmissiledefensesareerodingRussianmilitaryplannersconfidenceintheir
nucleardeterrent.
AsseenbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentandpoliticalelites,thesecurity
environmentalongtheperipheryofRussiaisprecariousandaddstotheinternalchallenges
facingthecountry.Russianplannersarebeingconfrontedwitharegionrifewithinstability,
localconflicts,andforeignpowerstheyviewascompetingwithoropenlyhostiletoRussiain
everystrategicdirection.
Inthisenvironment,Russiaisresortingtoanarrayoftoolsfromnuclearsaberrattlingto
intimidationofsmaller,weakerneighborstoinformationwarfare,cyberoperations,
subversion,bribery,andotherpoliticalandeconomicmeasuresasmeansofhybridwarfare
orcontinuationofpoliticsbyallavailablemeans.
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsfornotonlythose
countriesbutalsoArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,andMoldova.LackingtheNorthAtlantic
TreatyOrganizations(NATOs)securityguarantee,thesesixbattlegroundstatesremainin
whatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivilegedinterests.Itispreparedtousemilitary
forcetokeeptheminit.AstheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussian
sphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthat
MoscowstilltakesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriously,andthatit
isnotpreparedtotestthatguaranteedirectly.Russianleaderswenttowartwicetoprevent
GeorgiaandUkrainefromeventuallyastheysawitjoiningNATO.Ratherthanchallenge
NATOdirectly,Moscowwillcontinuetorelyonitswidearrayofhybridwarfaremethodsto
underminememberstatesconfidenceinthealliance.
Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrent
capabilitiesinthefrontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATO
andRussia.NATOsactionsintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis,intendedtoshoreupthe
frontlinestates,havetriggereddisproportionateRussianresponses,includingdeploymentof
anti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiestoCrimeaandKaliningradaswellas
threatstodeploynuclearweaponsthere.
AbsentmajorchangesinRussias(orNATOs)outlook,thisadversarialrelationshipwill
remainakeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.
Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoresolvethisstandoff.
Introduction
TheannexationofCrimeabyRussiainMarch2014andtheundeclaredwaragainstUkrainethat
followedmarkedtheendofthepostColdWarperiodinEuropeanhistory.Russianactionshave
destroyedkeyelementsofboththepostColdWarsecuritysystemandthepostWorldWarII
securitysysteminEuropethathadsurvivedfornearlythree-quartersofacentury.Thedamage
donebyRussianactionsisdeepandlasting,withpre-andpost-Ukraineembodyingacleardividing
lineinEuropeansecurityaffairs.AnewgeopoliticaldivisionofEuropehasemergedaswell.Putting
thepiecesbacktogetherinUkraineandshoringupaunitedEuropewillstretchU.S.capabilities.
ThesetwinchallengeswillremainastrategicimperativeforU.S.policymakersabsentamajorshift
inRussianpositionswithrespecttoEuropeansecurityahighlyunlikelyoccurrencewithouta
changeinthecountrysleadershipandgoverningideology.
RussianactionsinUkraineandelsewhereinEuropehaveshockedbothEuropeanandU.S.
nationalsecurityandforeignpolicyestablishments.Few,ifany,analystsoneithersideofthe
AtlantichadpredictedthatMoscowwouldmovetodestroywhatwasenvisionedattheendofthe
ColdWarasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors.1Russianactionsagainst
UkrainecameasasurpriseevenformanyseasonedRussianforeignpolicyobservers.2The
decisiontoseizeandsubsequentlyannexCrimeaandtolaunchthewarineasternUkrainein
supportofRussian-inspiredseparatistswasmostlikelypartofaspontaneous,panickyresponseby
MoscowtotherapidlychangingpoliticalenvironmentinUkraineratherthananelementofalong-
term,well-thought-out,deliberatestrategy.3
However,acarefulexaminationofRussiasownnarrativeaboutEuropeanandEurasiansecurity,
anditsevolutionsincetheendoftheColdWar,suggeststhatRussianactionsinUkrainewere
entirelylogical,perhapseveninevitable,asanextensionofRussianthreatperceptions.Asseen
fromMoscow,therapidchangesinUkrainianpoliticsthecollapseofthepresidencyofViktor
YanukovychandthecomingtopowerofapoliticalcoalitionadvocatingUkrainespro-European
andEuro-Atlanticorientation,includingeventualmembershipintheEuropeanUnion(EU)andthe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)carriedwiththemprofoundgeopolitical
consequencesforRussia:theysignaledtheemergenceofnewthreatstoRussiassecurityrightatits
doorstep,threatsthatnoRussianleaderislikelytotoleratewithoutawholesalechangeinthe
countrysideologyandunderstandingofitsnationalsecurity.
FromMoscowsperspective,itsactionsinUkrainerepresentedquintessentiallyaseriesof
necessarydefensive,ratherthanoffensiveandexpansionist,measuresthatwereintendedtoprevent
anevenmoreseveregeopoliticalimbalanceonthecontinentresultingfromNATOandEU
expansionintoCentralandEasternEurope.Attherootoftheseactionswasasenseofvulnerability
ratherthanconfidenceinMoscowsrelationswiththeWest.Ironically,thesecurityenvironment
aroundtheperipheryofRussiathathasemergedasaresultoftheannexationofCrimeaandthe
subsequentaggressionagainstUkraineundoubtedlyleavesRussianmilitaryplannerswithagreater
senseofvulnerability.
ThepeacefulendoftheColdWaranddissolutionoftheSovietUnionin1991signaledthedawnof
anewerainEuropeansecurity.Aftertheideologicalandmilitarystandoffthathaddividedthe
continentformorethanfourdecades,EuropeincludingRussiawascomingtogetheronthe
basisofanewvision,embracedbyallasthefoundationforanewsecurityorder.
Thatsecurityorder,describedbyWesternleadersasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitself
anditsneighbors,wouldnotrelyonsuchfamiliarconceptsasbalanceofpowerorbalanceof
intereststomaintainpeaceonthecontinent.ItwouldinsteadrelyonallEuropeannations
includingRussiamaintainingacommitmenttosharedvaluesandadherencetoasetofkey
principlestoguidetheirforeignandsecuritypolicies.Theseprincipleswererespectingthe
independence,sovereignty,andterritorialintegrityofallnationsrefrainingfromusingforcetosettle
internationaldisputesallowingfreedomofchoicebyallstatestopursuetheirforeignpoliciesand
enterintoalliancesanddemonstratingrespectforfundamentalhumanrightsandpersonalfreedoms
instatesdomesticpoliticalarrangements.
NoneofthesecommitmentsundertakenbyallEuropeannationsincludingRussiawerenew.
TheyhadtheirantecedentsintheUnitedNations(UN)charterattheendofWorldWarII,aswell
asmorerecentlyinthe1975HelsinkiFinalAct.4Asiftounderscoretheircommitmentsandrenew
themforthenewera,theheadsofstateorgovernmentofallEuropeannations,Canada,andthe
UnitedStatescametogetherin1990tosigntheCharterofParisforaNewEurope.5Inthat
document,theywelcomedtheneweraofdemocracy,peaceandunityinEuropeand,among
otherthings,pledgedtosettledisputesbypeacefulmeansanddefenddemocraticinstitutions
againstactivitieswhichviolatetheindependence,sovereignequalityorterritorialintegrityofthe
participatingStates.
TheCharterofPariswasjoinedbytheSovietUnion,whosecommitmentswereassumedby
Russiauponitsdissolutionin1991.UkraineandotherformerSovietstatesalsojoinedthe
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope,whichwasestablishedtoimplementthe
visionoftheCharterofParis.
AnothermajorstepintheevolutionofEuropewasthesigningin1992oftheMaastrichtTreaty.6It
wasamilestoneintheprocessofEuropeanintegrationalsoonthebasisofsharedvaluesthat
transformedtheEuropeanCommunityintotheEuropeanUnion.TheEUwouldpursuethegoalsof
promotingandstrengtheningdemocraticinstitutions,establishingamonetaryunion,anddeveloping
acommonforeignandsecuritypolicy.
TheSovietUnionandsubsequentlyRussiaplayedessentialrolesinthistransformationofthe
Europeansecuritylandscape,havingconsentedtoshedtheouterandinnerempirespeacefullyin
thelate1980sandearly1990s.Atthetime,boththeSovietgovernmentandthegovernmentofthe
newRussianstatedeclaredanddemonstratedindeedtheircommitmenttoupholdtheunderlying
principlesofEuropeansecurityandstability.
EarlySignsofTrouble
However,whiletherestofthecontinentcelebratedthedawnofanewpeacefulandharmoniousera
inEuropeanhistoryandembracedthevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors,Russiawashavingsecondthoughts.TheideaofaEuropeansecuritysystembasedona
vagueconceptofsharedvaluesdidnotsitwellwiththeRussianforeignpolicyandsecurity
establishment.Thus,speakingataforeignministryconferencedevotedtoadiscussionofanew
foreignpolicyconceptoftheRussianFederation,thenforeignministerAndreyKozyrevdeclared
thatRussiamustbecomeanormalgreatpower.7ThechairmanoftheForeignAffairsCommittee
oftheRussianDuma,YevgeniyAmbartsumov,welcomedtheforeignministersproposalandwent
further,declaringthatthetimehadcometoabandonidealisticdeclarationsinfavorofrealpolitik.8
AlthoughtheRussiangovernmentwaspreoccupiedatthetimewithaseeminglyendlesssuccession
ofdomesticcrisesthatfollowedthedissolutionoftheSovietUnion,includingacollapsingeconomy
andfiercepoliticalstruggleintheRussianparliament,wherethereformagendaranintostrong
opposition,theRussianforeignpolicyestablishmentarticulatedamoreambitiousvisionofthe
statesintereststhanthedirestateofRussiasdomesticpoliticsandeconomymighthavesuggested.
Insharpcontrasttohisearlierconciliatorystatements,AmbartsumovexplicitlylaidclaimtoRussias
specialrights,evenresponsibilities,throughouttheterritoriesoftheformerSovietstatesand
suggestedthatRussianintereststranscendedthebordersofthesenewlyindependentstates.9
SergeyKaraganov,aleadingforeignpolicyscholarandfounderoftheCouncilonForeignand
DefensePolicy,wroteinasimilarveinthatRussiahadnotjustasetofinterests,butaspecial
missionaheavycrosstobearintheterritoriesoftheformerSovietUnion.10
RussiahadinheriteditsnationalsecurityestablishmentfromtheSovietUnion.Ambartsumov,
Kozyrev,andKaraganovrepresentedanewgenerationofforeignpolicythinkersandpractitioners
withrelativelyprogressiveattitudeswhocouldhavebeenexpectedtoholdmoreenlightenedviews
onrelationswithneighboringstatesandthepostColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.But
theRussianmilitary,securityservices,anddiplomaticestablishmentwereallproductsoftheCold
WarinwhichmistrustoftheWestwasdeepandnoteasilyovercomebydeclarationsofpeaceful
intentionsbyEuropeanandU.S.leaders.11
TheseearlysignalsthatsharedvaluesmaynotbesufficientforRussiaasthebasisforEuropean
securityandstabilitycouldhaveremainedalargelyinconsequentialdiscourseintherelatively
narrowandself-containedcommunityofRussianforeignpolicyexperts.Foreignpolicyinthe
1990stookabackseattodomesticaffairs,especiallytheeconomy,whichwasthedominant
concernofthecountryselitesandthegeneralpublic.However,thedebatewasbroughttothefore
ofRussiandomesticpoliticsandEuropeandiscussionsaboutthecontinentssecurityarchitectureby
twocriticallyimportantprocesses:enlargementoftheEUandNATO.
Thefirstmajorencountersignalingfuturetroublestookplacein1993.DuringanAugustmeeting
withthenPolishpresidentLechWasainWarsaw,thenRussianpresidentBorisYeltsininawritten
statementexpressedhisunderstandingofPolandsdesiretojoinNATO.12Kozyrevreportedly
echoedthatsentimentdespitehavingbeenopposedtotheideapreviously.However,justafew
weekslater,inOctober1993,theRussianpresidentsentalettertothenU.S.presidentBillClinton
statinghisstrongoppositiontomembershipintheallianceforPolandoranyotherCentralor
EasternEuropeancountry.13Yeltsinsapparentchangeofpositionwasreportedlyduetopressure
fromtheRussianmilitaryestablishment,whichstillconsideredNATOathreat.14
ThelaunchofanactivediscussioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesaboutNATOenlargement
transformedtheinitialcracksintheEuropeansecuritylandscapeintoamajordividebetween
RussiaandmostoftherestofEurope.NATOalliesandaspirantsmaintainedthatexpandingthe
alliancewasintendednotasahostilestepagainstRussia,butthatbringingthezoneofstabilityand
securityclosertoRussiasborderwouldonlybenefitMoscow.Russiancounterargumentswere
preciselytheopposite,stressingthemilitarycapabilitiesthatNATOexpansionwouldinevitably
bringclosertoRussianborders.(SeeRussiangovernmentthinktankmapsshowingNATO
enlargementinfigures1and2.)
RussianoppositiontoNATOenlargementwassharedbypoliticiansacrossthepoliticalspectrum.
TheconservativewingofRussianpoliticsrepresentedbythenationalistsandtheCommunists
opposedthealliancesexpansionforgeopoliticalandideologicalreasons.Theliberalsand
reformersopposeditbecausetheysawitasdamagingtotheiralreadytenuouspositioninRussian
domesticpolitics,vulnerabletocriticismfromopponentswhoaccusedthemofbetrayingRussian
nationalinterestandbeingagentsoftheWest.15
AfterbeingcutofffromWesternpoliticalsciencefordecades,Russianinternationalrelations
scholarswereavidlyabsorbingideasputforthbyleadingWesternpoliticalscientists.Themost
prominentamongthemwereSamuelHuntingtonandZbigniewBrzezinski,whosebooksTheClash
ofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrderandTheGrandChessboardrespectively
approachedcontemporaryinternationalrelationsfrompointsofviewthatrejectedtheveryideaof
avalues-basedsecuritysysteminEuropeandEurasia.16Huntingtonsvolume,asthetitlesuggests,
predictedaconflictpittingWesterncivilizationanditsliberalideologyagainstothercivilizations
guidedbyotherideas.BrzezinskiarguedthatitwasimportantfortheUnitedStatestoprevent
anothermajorpowerreadRussiafromdominatingtheEurasianlandmass.
TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposed
NATOsinterventioninYugoslaviaas,amongother
reasons,apotentialprecedentforsimilaractionby
NATOinRussiaorarounditsperiphery.18
InlightofthesetwobooksbyleadingAmericanforeignpolicythinkerswidelyregardedinRussia
asspeakingforWashingtonsforeignpolicyestablishment,itwaseasyforRussianforeignand
nationalsecuritypolicymakers,manyofthemproductsoftheColdWar,tobeskepticalofU.S.and
alliesreassurancesaboutvalues-basedsecurityarrangementsforEuropeandEurasia.Whilethe
ideaofNATOextendingitsmembershipbeyondEuropewasnotbroughtupeveninthemost
ambitiousdiscussionsofthealliancesfutureatthetime,NATOdidextenditsreachintoCentral
AsiathroughitsPartnershipforPeaceprogram.17ThatcouldhavebeeninterpretedbyRussian
militaryplannersasamaneuvertoencircleRussia,notwithstandingthefactthatRussiaitselfhad
joinedthePartnershipforPeace.
AnotherfactorshapingRussianthreatperceptionswithrespecttoNATOandEuropeansecurity
wastheconflictintheformerYugoslavia.ForRussia,stillreelingfromthedissolutionoftheSoviet
Unionandstrugglingtoovercomemultiplepoliticalandeconomicchallenges,theviolentbreakupof
Yugoslaviawasacontinuingreminderofthedangersithadbarelyescaped.TheRussian
governmentvehementlyopposedNATOsinterventioninYugoslaviaas,amongotherreasons,a
potentialprecedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussiaorarounditsperiphery.18TheRussian
militarysbrutaltacticsduringthe19941996warinChechnyadrewwidespreadcondemnation
fromtheWest.ThepossibilityofaNATOinterventioninthebreakawayrepublic,nomatterhow
improbabletomostseasonedobservers,wasnonethelesswidelydiscussedinRussia.19
humanitarianconsiderationsonlyreinforcedRussianoppositiontothecampaignandresistanceto
NATOsenlargement.FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theextraditionand
trialoftheformerYugoslavstrongmanSlobodanMiloeviundoubtedlyservedasareminderthat
atsomefuturetimeaweakenedRussiangovernmentcouldbeforcedtosurrendertheleadersof
themilitarycampaigninChechnyaandthattheywouldfindthemselvesontrialforwarcrimes
beforeaninternationaltribunal.20
FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theonlyguaranteeagainstsuchevents
wasthevastnucleararsenalRussiahadinheritedfromtheSovietUnion.Russiannationalsecurity
documentsfromthe1990sonwardhavestressedtheuniqueroleofnuclearweaponsasthe
ultimateperhapseventheonlyguaranteeofRussiansovereigntyandstrategicindependence.21
ButalthoughnuclearweaponswereindispensableasaguaranteeagainstWesterninterventionin
Russia,theywerefarlessusefulwhenitcametointerveningincrisesbeyondRussiasbordersand
projectingMoscowsinterestsbeyondtheborders.Thenucleararsenalwasoflittleusewhenit
cametodeterringNATOenlargementeverclosertoRussianbordersandsecuringasphereof
influenceforRussiaarounditsperipheryalong-standingRussianobjectivearticulatedasearlyas
1992byleadingRussianforeignpolicythinkersandpractitioners.Forthat,Russiawouldhaveto
rebuilditsconventionalcapabilities,whichinturnwouldrequireacommitmentofsignificant
economicresources.
AStrongWarning
Duringthefirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,Russiaenjoyedamajoreconomicrebound.In
thedecadefromthefinancialcollapseof1998totheendofVladimirPutinssecondpresidential
termin2008,Russiangrossdomesticproduct(GDP)grewfromjustunder$300billiontonearly
$1.7trillionincurrentprices.22Astheeconomyreboundedanddomesticpoliticsstabilized,the
Russiangovernmentassumedafarmoreprominentpositionintheinternationalarenathanduring
the1990s.Russiabecameafull-fledgedmemberoftheG8industrializedeconomiesandasserted
itselfasastrongandindependentvoiceonmajorissues,fromEuropeansecuritytothewarinIraq.
Themostnotableandforcefulstatementonforeignandsecuritypolicyfromthatperiodcamefrom
Putinpersonally,deliveredattheMunichSecurityConferencein2007.Thespeech,describedby
someintheaudienceasColdWarlike,clearlylaidoutRussianrejectionofthepostColdWar
securityorderinEurope.23TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATOenlargementasa
provocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledallianceseekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.In
puttingitsmilitaryforcesrightuptoRussiasborder,Putinsaid,NATOwasinviolationof
assurancesgiventoRussiaattheendoftheColdWar.Thisunilateral,unipolar,U.S.-centric
securitymodel,heconcluded,wasunacceptable.
enlargementwasnotonlyalandgrabthatupsetthegeopoliticalbalanceinEurope,butitalso
constitutedaviolationofassurancesgivenbyWesternleaderstothenSovietpresidentMikhail
GorbachevthatinexchangeforGermanysreunificationandNATOmembership,thealliance
wouldnotexpandeastward.24Thenatureofthisclaimhasbeenrepeatedlydisputed.25And
documentaryevidencetosupportithasbeenambiguousatbesttosaynothingofitspractical
irrelevance,fornobody,notevenRussianofficials,proposestoundoNATOenlargement.Still,the
ideathattheWestbrokeitspromisehasbecomeanintegralpartofRussiandiscussionsabout
postColdWarsecurityinEurope.
TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATO
enlargementasaprovocativeunilaterallandgrabby
theU.S.-ledallianceseekingtoexpanditssphereof
influence.
RussianleadersopposedEuropespostColdWarsecurityorderalsoonideologicalgrounds.
TheycriticizedU.S.andEuropeaneffortstopromotedemocracyaroundtheperipheryofRussiaas
athinlydisguisedpursuitoftheWestsexpandedsphereofinfluence.26Theyalsoviewedtheefforts
asadeeplydestabilizingundertakingthatthreatenedthestabilityandsecurityofneighboringstates
andevenheldoutthepossibilityofunderminingRussiasownhard-wondomesticstability.Beyond
that,thepushbytheWesttopromotedemocracyinsideRussiawasdeclaredbyRussianleaders
asaviolationofRussiansovereigntyandpotentiallydestabilizinganddeeplythreateningtothePutin
administrationitself.
AsRussiasowndomesticpoliticstookonamoreauthoritarianturnandPutinconsolidatedmore
power,hecameundercriticismfromWesternleaders.27CombinedwithenthusiasticWestern
expressionsofsupportfortheRoseRevolutioninGeorgiain2003andtheOrangeRevolutionin
Ukrainein20042005bothcrisesinwhichRussiaandtheWestwerepittedagainsteachother
throughproxyfactionstheWestssupportfordemocracythroughtheever-expandingreachof
theEUandNATOemergedasthemostcontentiousissueinrelationswithRussia.Buildingonthe
majorthemeofhisMunichaddress,PutindeliveredafurtherwarningtoNATOatthealliances
2008Bucharestsummit.NATOspromiseoffuturemembershiptoGeorgiaandUkraine,hesaid,
constitutedadirectthreattoRussiansecurity.Inanominouspreviewoffutureevents,hespoke
ofthehistorictiesbetweenRussiaandtheethnicRussianpopulationsofeasternUkraineand
Crimeaandthepopulationsdesireforclosetieswiththemotherland.28
AsiftheRussianpresidentstwowarningswerenotenough,thewarwithGeorgiain2008senta
furthermessagetotheWest,aswellastoRussiasneighbors,thatPutinmeantwhathesaid.Ina
statementonRussiantelevisionintheimmediateaftermathofthewarinGeorgia,thenpresident
DmitryMedvedevdeclaredcountriesaroundRussiasperipheryasasphereofRussias
privilegedinterests.29NostatementdeliveredbyaRussianleaderpriortothewarof2008had
signaledwithgreaterclarityMoscowsrejectionofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEurope.
Medvedevwoulddividethecontinentintospheresofinterestsandinfluence,andhewasfully
committedtodefendRussiasspherefromencroachmentbyotherpowers.
ThewarinGeorgiadeliveredtwoverydistinctmessagestotwodifferentaudiences.TotheWest,
themessagewastostayoutofthesphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.ToRussia,themessage
wasthatdespitethesuccessfulcampaignagainstitstinyneighbor,theRussianmilitarywasinneed
offar-reachingreform.30Russianeededthecapabilitybeyonditsnucleararsenaltodefendits
interestsanddeterthosewhomightconsiderinfringingonthem.Themilitaryreformlaunchedinthe
aftermathofthewarinGeorgiaandaprogramofmilitarymodernizationwereintendedtogive
Russiathecapabilitytodojustthat.31
TheBreak
The20082012interregnumbetweenPutinssecondandthirdtermsaspresidentwasaperiodof
relativecalminRussiasrelationswiththeWest.CombinedwiththeresetwithRussiabeginningin
2009bytheadministrationofU.S.PresidentBarackObama,otherimperativesthewarin
Afghanistan,Iransnuclearprogram,thecrisisinLibyatookprecedenceoverNATO
enlargement.Atthesametime,newlylauncheddebatesinsideRussiaaboutdomesticpoliticaland
economicmodernizationheldouttheprospectofRussiareturningtothepathofdemocratization
andamorecooperativerelationshipwiththeWest.32Inaddition,NATOlackedthenecessary
consensustopushforGeorgiasmembershipintheallianceintheaftermathofthewarof2008.
Andin2010,UkraineremovedNATOmembershipfromitslistofnationalsecuritypriorities
altogether.33
ThecalmwasbrokenbydevelopmentsinsideRussia.Putinsdecisiontoreclaimthepresidency
fromMedvedevwasmetwithlarge-scaleprotestsunprecedentedinthehistoryofmodernRussia
byproponentsoffurtherpoliticalandeconomicreformsthathadbeendebatedduring
Medvedevspresidency.34TheprotestsweregreetedintheWestasamanifestationofRussias
democraticspiritandpoliticalreawakening.35
TheresponsefromthePutinadministrationwasharsh.Itincludedaseriesofnewlegislativesteps
tolimittheRussianpublicsspaceforpoliticalprotestscourtactionsagainstprotestersanda
mediacampaignaccusingtheWestofinstigatingprotestsinRussiatoundermineandweakenit.36
TheWestwaspromotinginRussiavaluesthatwerealientoRussiansociety,theKremlincharged,
embracingthesloganRussiaisnotEurope.37Putinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionof
Russiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.Twodecadesaftersigningonto
thevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiafinally
abandonedit.
Russiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferent
valuessystems.
ThisbreakalsomanifesteditselfinRussianforeignpolicy,particularlyinrelationswiththeformer
Sovietstates.BuildingonearlierRussianpronouncementsaboutasphereofinfluenceandinterests,
andthedangerposedbytheWestsgeopoliticalexpansion,PutinelevatedEurasianintegration
thegatheringoftheformerSovietstatesaroundRussiatothetopofhisforeignpolicyagendafor
histhirdterm.38BuildingontheRussia-Kazakhstan-Belaruscustomsunionestablishedin2000,
PutinproposedtomovetowardaCommonEconomicSpace,eventuallyproceedingtoapolitical
Eurasianunion,allvaguelypatternedontheEUandrathertransparentlyintendedtocreatea
regionalcounterweighttoit.InPutinswords,theEurasianunionwouldbecomeapowerful
supranationalassociationcapableofbecomingoneofthepolesinthemodernworldareference
tothelong-standingRussianpreferenceforamultipolarinternationalsystemandrejectionofthe
U.S.-dominatedunipolarworld.39
AssociationAgreements.40Theseagreementsaredesignedtopromotepolitical,economic,and
rule-of-lawreformsincountriesofEasternEuropeandencouragetheircloserpoliticaland
commercialtiestotheEU.SeveralEasternEuropeancountriesArmenia,Georgia,Moldova,and
UkrainewereintheprocessofnegotiatingAssociationAgreementswiththeEUwhenPutin
announcedhisvisionofEurasianintegration.Ukrainewasthelargestamongthemandstrategically
themostimportantforRussia.
ThegovernmentofUkrainethesecondmostpopulousformerSovietrepublicandthecritical
bridgebetweenRussiaandEuropewasengagedintwosimultaneousnegotiations.Onewaswith
RussiaaboutjoiningitseconomicintegrationprojecttheotherwaswiththeEUaboutan
AssociationAgreement.Withthetwodeemedincompatible,Kyivwouldeventuallyhavetochoose
oneortheother.41
ForRussia,forPutinpersonally,thelossofUkrainetotheEUwouldnotbeatolerableoutcome.
Thiswasduetoseveralreasons.In2004,PutinscandidateforthepresidencyofUkraine,Viktor
Yanukovych,wasdefeatedbytheOrangeRevolutionencouragedbytheWest.Anotherdefeatof
similarmagnitudeatthehandsoftheEUwasnotanoptionfortheRussianpresidentafterhehad
elevatedEurasianintegrationtothetopofhispolicyagendaasacounterweighttotheUnitedStates
andtheEU.
Moreover,allformerSovietsatellitesthathadjoinedtheEUalsojoinedNATO.Ukraines
AssociationAgreementwiththeEUwasundoubtedlyseenbytheKremlinasasteptoward
membershipintheEUand,eventually,inNATO.ThiswouldallowNATOspresencewithin300
milesofMoscow.AsseenfromMoscow,thiswouldalsomeanthatkeyUkrainiandefense
enterprisesthatsuppliedtheRussianmilitarywithcriticalcomponentswouldbelocatedonNATO
territory.42
AnothersignificantdependenceofRussiaonUkrainehastodowithenergysuppliestoEurope.
Ukraineisthecriticaltransitcountry,withasmuchashalfofRussiangasexportedtoEurope
deliveredthroughtheDruzhbapipelinethatcrossesUkraine.43U.S.andEuropeanleadershave
longcomplainedaboutEuropesdependenceonRussiangasandtheinfluenceitgivesMoscow
overthecontinent.SomehavearguedforNATOtotakeonthemissionofsecuringEuropes
energysupply.44ForRussia,theprospectofUkrainejoiningNATOorbecomingasatelliteofthe
EUwouldtranslateintoanunacceptablelossofpowerandinfluence.
Notwithstandingallthesestrategicconsiderations,thecrisisinUkraineapparentlycameasa
surprisefortheKremlin.45TheseverityofitsresponsetothecrisistheannexationofCrimea,the
warineasternUkraine,thevirulentpoliticalpropagandacampaignagainstthenewgovernmentof
UkraineandtheWestforsupportingit,andthedestructionoftheentirepostColdWarEuropean
securitysystemreflecttheperceptionsofthreatassociatedbyRussiannationalsecurityelitewith
thepotentiallossofUkrainetoNATOandtheEU.
TheNewOldThreat
actionsinUkraine(andsubsequentlyinSyria)haveamountedtoafundamentalreassessmentof
Russia,itsmilitarycapabilities,anditsresolvetousethem.46TheperceptionofRussiaasasecond-
ratepower,whosemilitarycapabilitieswerebadlydamagedbytheimplosionoftheSovietstate
andneverrecovered,hasbeenreplacedwithnewlyalarmedassessmentsoftheRussianmilitary
threatnotseenbyWesternpublicsinageneration.47EventheRussianNavy,longwrittenofffor
deadasapresenceinthehighseas,isthesubjectofanew,widelypublicizedreportbytheU.S.
OfficeofNavalIntelligence.48
operationineasternUkraine,andmostrecentlythemissioninSyriahavehadatransformational
effectontheimageoftheRussianmilitaryabroadandathome.However,withthese
accomplishmentsonandoffthebattlefieldcameaseriesofsoberingRussianreassessmentsofthe
newsecurityenvironmentsurroundingRussiainpost-postColdWarEuropeandEurasia.
Paradoxically,Russianmilitarysuccesseshaveresultedinnewthreatsandnewchallenges,andthey
havegeneratedaprofoundfeelingofuneaseamongRussianmilitaryexperts.Threatassessments
foundinofficialRussiandocuments,statementsoftopofficials,andprivate-sectorcommentators
describeauniformlybleakpicture.Inthewordsofoneauthoritativeobserver,Europesfailureto
secureitselfbehindabufferzoneestablishedwiththehelpoftheEUsEasternPartnership,which
includesArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkraine,hasmeantthatRussia
cannothidebehindabufferzoneeither.49Russiacannolongercountonthesecountriesasfriendly
andcapableofshieldingRussiaswesternandsouthernborders.
ThebreakinrelationswiththeWestNATOscontinuingplansforexpansion,itssupportfor
Ukraine,itsmilitarydeploymentsalongitsEasternflankandplansformoresuchdeployments,and
itslong-standingnuclearthreattoRussiaandcentersforcybersecurityandinformationwarfarein
theBalticstatesmakeupthenewthreatenvironmentRussiandefenseplannersarehavingto
confront.Andthatisnoteventhecompletelist,whichomitsawiderangeofrealandpotential
threatsfromtheself-proclaimedIslamicStatespresenceinIraqandSyriatoJapansnew
legislationgoverningtheuseofitsSelf-DefenseForcesabroad.Thisisthenewthreatenvironment
inwhichthearmedforcesoftheRussianstatehavetocarryouttheirmissionofdefendingand
protectingthesovereigntyoftheRussianstate,notedDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu,appearing
beforetheyear-endmeetingofseniorMinistryofDefenseofficialsattendedbyPutin.50
ThenewNationalSecurityStrategythatPutinsignedintolawonDecember31,2015,echoed
manyofthesamethemes.51ThedocumentidentifiedtheUnitedStatesanditsalliesastheprincipal
threattoRussia,astheWestseekstohangontoitsdominantpositionintheworld.NATO
enlargementcontinuesapace,withtheallianceaspiringtoaglobalmission.NATO,accordingtothe
newdocument,underminesinternationalsecurity,internationallaw,andarms-controltreaties
acquiresnewmilitarycapabilitiesanddeploysitsmilitaryinfrastructureeverclosertotheterritory
oftheRussianFederation,threateningitssecurity.InUkraine,thedocumentcontinues,NATOand
theEUhavesupportedanunconstitutionalcoupthattriggeredaprofoundsplitinUkrainiansociety
andresultedinanewsourceofinstabilityinEurope.
ThisisallpartandparcelofU.S.strategyinEurasia,accordingtothenowdeceasedheadof
Russianmilitaryintelligence,GeneralIgorSergun.52Writingin2015,heassertedthatthelong-term
U.S.goalwastoencircleRussiaandChinawitharingofregimesloyaltotheUnitedStatesand
flashpointsthatwouldreliablypreventRussiafromcarryingoutitsEurasianintegrationproject.
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandtodate
andinthefuturehavebrokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythealliesnottostation
permanentlysubstantialcombatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembers.Regardlessofthecaveat
thatthepromisewasconditionedonthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironment,which
wasupendedbytheannexationofCrimeaandaggressionineasternUkrainetherecanbelittle
doubtthatthereinforcementsareperceivedbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentasitsworst
expectationscomingtrue.53Whetherthesereinforcementswillconstituteapermanentorpersistent
presenceislikelytobeoflittleconsequenceforRussiananalysts,foreitheronewouldconstitutea
continuousandineffectpermanentmilitarypresenceofNATOtroopsintheseforwardareas.
ItstheEconomy...
unofficialspokesmen,iscompoundedbytheunenviablestateofitseconomy.54Gonearethehigh
ratesofgrowthtypicalofthefirsttwotermsofthePutinpresidencythatmadepossiblethe
recoveryofthecountryseconomichealthaswellasitsinternationalstandingandmilitary
capabilities.TheinabilityoftheRussianeconomytocompeteintheglobalmarketplaceandits
relianceontheoldmodelofdevelopmentbasedonexportsofrawmaterialshavebeenelevatedin
thenewnationalsecuritystrategytotherankofthemainstrategicthreatsto[Russias]national
securityinthesphereoftheeconomy.55ThetasknowbeforeRussianpolicymakersistodevelop
anewmodelofeconomicgrowth,fortheoldonehasoutliveditsusefulness.Thisthemehasbeen
stressedbytopofficialsinRussia,includingKremlinChiefofStaffSergeiIvanov,who,withcandor
rareforaseniorKremlinofficial,admittedthatthecountryseconomicwoeswereduelargelyto
failuretoreformduringthefatyears.56SecurityCouncilSecretaryNikolaiPatrushev,too,has
stressedtheneedtojump-starttheRussianeconomyasamatterofnationalsecurity.57
allies.
Russianforeignpolicyandnationalsecurityexpertsfromresearchinstitutesandacademiahave
echoedthesamesenseofalarmaboutnewchallengesfacingRussiaasfoundinofficialgovernment
statementsanddocuments.Theyhavestressedtheincreasinglychaotic,seeminglyall-against-all
natureoftheinternationalsystemandtheweakeningofthemaincentersofglobalpower,including
theUnitedStatesandEurope.58However,thatishardlyacauseforcelebration,forRussiais
findingitselfwithoutreliablepartnersinthissituation(therelationshipwithChinaistreatedwith
cautioninthiscontexttimewilltellhowitturnsout).59AsaresultoftheUkrainecrisisandthe
breakwiththeWest,Russiahasbeenleft,asCarnegiesDmitriTreninputit,aloneagainstall.60
Furthermore,Russiananalystshavearguedthatbytheendof2015,Russiawasinanall-
encompassing,systemiccrisis.61Thebiggestblowwasdealtbythecollapseinoilpricesandthe
endoftheglobalcommoditiesboom.MakingmattersworsewasacombinationofshrinkingGDP,
chroniclackofinvestment,currencydevaluation,lossofaccesstoWesterncapitalmarkets,and
highinflation.Thepoliticalenvironmentwasnobetter,duetotheescalationofmilitaryactivities
abroad,theintensifyingcrackdownontheopposition,andthemurderofoppositionpoliticianBoris
Nemtsov.
Takentogether,thesewereallsignsoffundamentalproblemsforapoliticalleadershipthatwas
steadfastlyresistingcomprehensivereforms.Stagnationandthefailuretocarryoutfar-reaching
economic,political,andtechnologicalmodernizationcouldhavemajorsecurityimplications.
Withoutreforms,KaraganovwarnedatthegatheringoftheestablishmentCouncilonForeignand
DefensePolicy,defeatawaits[Russia]inthefuturepolitical,economic,andmilitary-strategic
competitionofthetwenty-firstcentury.62HermanGref,theheadofthemajoritystate-owned
biggestRussianbankSberbank,echoedthesewordsinearly2016,when,speakingatapublic
gatheringofeconomistsandseniorgovernmentofficials,hedescribedRussiaasalosercountry.63
NoLightattheEnd
TheseandothersimilarlygloomyassessmentsthathavepermeatedtheentirespectrumofRussian
politicalopinion,fromofficialgovernmentdocumentsandestablishmentfigurestoscholarsat
researchinstitutionstooppositionfigures,pointtoaprofoundsenseofinsecurityinRussias
establishmentcircles.64GoneistheconfidenceofthefirsttwopresidentialtermsofVladimirPutin.
TheearlybravuraresponsetoWesternsanctionsanddeclarationsthatRussianindustrycanmore
thanmakeupforthelossofimportedgoodsandgrowthankstoimportsubstitutionandthe
cheaperRussianrublehavebeenderidedasdelusional.65Someofthemostalarmistcommentators
gosofarastoclaimthattheRussianeconomyisbackslidingintothecategoryofindustrialand
evenpreindustrialeconomies,rapidlyfallingbehindtothepointwhereonedayitcouldceasetobe
anindependentactorintheinternationalarena.66AsasignoftheprevailinggloomamongRussian
economicanalysts,includingseniorgovernmentofficials,theendofthecurrenteconomiccrisis,
whichsomebelieveRussiaisalreadyapproaching,maynotleadtogrowthinstead,inthewordsof
thefirstdeputychairoftheCentralBankofRussia,XeniaYudayeva,itwillmarkthebeginningof
eternalorlong-termstagnation.67
ThisbriefoverviewofthenarrativeinofficialRussianoutletsandsocietaldiscoursepointstoalack
ofconfidenceonthepartofRussianelitesintheirleadership,intheirownabilities,andinthe
countrysfuture.Thetimesoftrouble,whichmanyifnotmostRussiansoncethoughtwereleft
behindinthe1990s,appeartobeanythingbutsafelybehindthem.Russianassessmentsofthe
presentsituationinandaroundRussiacanbesummarizedinafewshortsentences:
TheRussianeconomyhasoutliveditsmodelofdevelopmentandcanatbeststagnateand
stayfirmlylodgedinthemiddle-incometrapthepoliticalsystemisnotabletoaddressthe
tensionsthatarebuildingwithinsociety.
Russiahasnoreliablepartnersandisfacingavastlysuperioradversarywhoseeconomyis
muchbiggerandbetterperformingthanRussiasandwhosemilitaryandtechnological
capabilitiesaretheenvyandthetargetofRussiasownmilitaryreformanddefense
modernizationplans.
Ukraine,RussianassessmentsoftheRussianmilitaryhavebeenpermeatedbyadeepsenseof
inferiorityvis--visNATO.AnauthoritativeassessmentofferedbyaleadingRussianmilitaryanalyst
intheaftermathoftheactivephaseoftheconflictineasternUkrainedescribedthemilitary
confrontationbetweenRussiaandUkraineasabattlebetweentwoobsoletemilitaries,oneof
which(Russias)wasbettertrained,equipped,andled.68
countrieswouldfollowaverydifferentscenario.TheRussianmilitarywouldfaceafarsuperior
enemy,onethatisbetterequipped,bettertrained,betterled,andbettersustained.Fromthesizeof
NATOsgroundforcetosmartweaponsinitsarsenaltoitselectronicwarfarecapabilities,the
Russianmilitarywouldbeoutnumbered,outgunned,outdone.Russiasonlyrecourseinsuch
circumstances,theanalysisconcludes,istothreatentheadversarywithtacticalnuclearweapons.
Thecountry,thearmy,andthenavyarenotyetreadyforalarge-scaleconventional-onlywar.69
ThissenseofvulnerabilitypermeatesRussianmilitarythinkingaboutfutureconflictsandthreat
assessmentsastheypertaintoeverysphereofmilitaryactivityconventional,nuclear,cyberwar,
andinformationwarfare.Noneofthisisnewandreflectslong-standingRussianandearlierSoviet
concernsaboutthecountrysinferiormilitarycapabilitieswhenstackedagainstNATOs.
Inrecentyears,noRussianstatementaboutsecuritypolicyhasgeneratedmorealarmintheWest
thanhigh-levelpronouncementsaboutRussiannuclearmodernizationandthereadinesstouse
nuclearweaponsintheeventofaconflictinEurope.70Widelyinterpretedinpubliccommentaryin
theWestasevidenceofRussianaggressivenessandmilitaristicambitions,thesestatementshave
beenechoedindomesticRussiandiscussionsabouttheroleofnuclearweaponsinafuturewar.71
ThatwarwouldbefoughtagainsttheWest.Russia,writesSergeyBrezkun,professorofthe
AcademyofMilitarySciences,needstodevelopitsownde-escalationladderinordertolimita
futureregionalconflictatanearlystageandpreventitfromblowingupintoalarge-scalewar.72
Russianleaders,helaments,havenotadequatelyaddressedtheproblemofregionaldeterrence,
whichisbecomingallthemoreurgentbecauseofwhathecharacterizedastheweakeningofthe
political-militarypositionsoftheRussianFederation,proliferationontheperipheryofRussiaof
hostileregimesmanipulatedbytheWest,andthedeclineofRussiasconventionalcapabilities.In
thesecircumstances,theideaofmassivenuclearretaliationinresponsetoaregionalcrisisis
irrationalandimpractical.Russianeedsoptionsforde-escalatingthecrisisinitsbeginningphase
withthehelpoflimitednuclearstrikesagainstkeyassetsoftheenemy,butwithoutcatastrophic
consequences,aswellasnuclearweaponsspecificallydesignedforthispurpose.Suchlimited
nuclearstrikes,Brezkunargues,willhaveasoberingeffectontheenemy,whichwillthenceaseand
desist.
Intheworstpossiblecase,whichtoRussianplanners
isnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOs
conventional,nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilities
couldprovedevastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenal
anddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatorystrike.
economyanditsdefense-industrialsector.Oneoftheearliestvoicestosoundalarmaboutthe
Westsemergingsuperiorconventionalcapabilitiesinthe1970sand1980swasMarshalNikolay
Ogarkov,thechiefoftheGeneralStaff.73Thislackofconfidencemayappearsurprisinginthe
aftermathofRussianmilitaryreform,inthemidstofaten-yeardefensemodernizationprogram,
increaseddefensespending,andtheRussianarmysstringofsuccessfuloperations.Still,U.S.and
otherNATOcountriesconventionalcapabilitiescontinuetoimpressRussianmilitaryobserversand
feedtheirinsecuritywithrespecttotheirown.
Butthisdeep-seatedfeelingofinsecuritycomparedwithNATOapparentlygoesbeyondthe
conventionalsphereandappliestoRussiasstrategicandtacticalnuclearcapabilitiesaswell.Inthe
worstpossiblecase,whichtoRussianplannersisnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOs
conventional,nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilitiescouldprovedevastatingtoRussiasnuclear
arsenalanddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatorystrike.Facedwiththishighlyimprobable
prospect,Russianmilitaryplannershavetoconsiderfirst-useoptionsasade-escalatorymeasure
thatwillpersuadetheenemyofthefutilityofitsactions.Otherwise,ifnuclearweaponsarenotused
earlyinaconflictforthepurposeofendingit,Russiamaynotbeabletousethematallandbe
defeated.
ThesamelackofconfidenceinRussianretaliatorycapabilitiesisapparentinRussiandiscussions
abouttheneedforadoomsdaymachinelikeschemetoensureamassiveretaliatorystrikeinthe
eventofadevastatingattackonRussiadiscussionsreminiscentofStanleyKubricksDr.
Strangelovecharacter.74Inanapparentlydeliberateleak,Russianmediarevealedtheexistenceofa
high-yieldunmannednucleartorpedothatcouldbelaunchedasaretaliatoryweaponagainsta
majorU.S.coastalurbancenterandwouldresultinmassivehumanlossandeconomic
devastation.75AnotherproposalcalledforRussiatousemassivenuclearchargestotrigger
catastrophictsunamis,volcaniceruptions,orearthquakesthatwouldcausedevastationoflarge
areasoftheUnitedStatesalongtheWestcoast.76
RussianmilitaryplannersconcernsaboutthethreatofU.S.missiledefensestotheirretaliatory
capabilitieslongpredatethedecisionsbytheadministrationsofObamaandhispredecessoras
U.S.president,GeorgeW.Bush,todeploymissiledefensesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.
SomeanalystshavegonesofarastosaythatformerpresidentRonaldReagansStrategicDefense
Initiative(commonlycalledStarWars)inthe1980swasresponsibleforconvincingtheSoviet
PolitburothattheUnitedStatesenjoyedvastmilitary-technologicalsuperiority.Notonlycouldthe
UnitedStateslaunchasurpriseattackontheSovietUnion,theseanalystsconcluded,butitcould
alsoacquirethemeansofdenyingtheSovietUnionthecapabilityofdeliveringaretaliatorystrike.77
Thearmsrace,inotherwords,couldnotbewon,andthatinturnledtotheendoftheColdWar.78
RussianconcernsaboutU.S.missiledefensecapabilitiesthusappeartohavedeeproots.They
havebeenrestatedwithsurprisingcandorbyRussianofficials.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairs
SpecialEnvoyGrigoryBerdennikov,replyingtoaquestioninFebruary2015aboutfuturearms
control,said,
Onehastounderstandthatnuclearweaponsarenotsomethingthatstandsalone,theyare
partofthestrategicbalance.Tomoveaheadwithnuclearweaponsreductions,itis
necessarytotakeintoaccountotherfactorsfirstofall,thefactoroftheglobalmissile
defensesystem,whichtheAmericans,despiteall[our]arguments,stubbornlydonotwantto
discusswithus....
Theentiresystemofmutualrelationsinthenuclearsphereisbasedondeterrence.Inother
words,youhavetohavethecapability,havingsurvivedthefirststrike,toretaliate,andin
suchawaythattheretaliatorystrikeissoterriblethatnobodywoulddaretolaunchthefirst
one.Ifaneffectivemissiledefensesystemappears,thensomeonemayhavetheillusionthat
mostoftheweaponsoftheenemycanbedestroyedinthefirststrikeandtherestcanbe
moreorlessintercepted.Thesmalleryourarsenal,theeasieritistointerceptwhatsleft
afterthefirststrike.Andwearebeingtold[bytheAmericans],Wellcontinuetodevelop
thesedefensivesystems,butletusreducefurthertheoffensivesystems.Forwhat?Tohave
afirmguaranteethatthesecondstrikewillbeintercepted,tohavethefreedomtolaunchthe
firststrike?Isthatwhywearedoingallthis?79
Russianconcernsandcandorarenotlimitedtothenuclearsphere.Continuinghispointaboutthe
fallacyoftreatingnuclearweaponsasastand-alonecapability,Berdennikovsaid,
Wearepreparedforadialogueaboutfurthernucleardisarmamentsteps.Atthesametime,
weareconvincedthattheyareimpossiblewithoutsolvingsuchproblemsastheunlimited
growthofglobalU.S.missiledefenses,theprojectofusingstrategicweaponswith
conventionalwarheadswithintheconceptofglobalstrike,...therefusaloftheUnited
Statestopledgenottodeployweaponsinspace,[and]thegrowthofqualitativeand
quantitativeconventionalimbalances.80
ThisstatementandothersbyseniorRussianofficialsandprominentanalystsunderscorethevital
functionnuclearweaponscontinuetoperforminthedefenseoftheRussianstate.81Athreatto
thoseweaponsisathreattothesurvivalofanindependentandsovereignRussianstate.
NewThreats
TheexpandingrangeofU.S.strategiccapabilitiesnuclear,high-precisionandlong-range
conventional,andmissiledefensehasbeenamajorpreoccupationofRussianmilitaryanalysts.82
Russianconcernaboutthesecapabilitiesisreflectedincandidstatementsaboutthethreatthey
pose,aswellasreassurancesthatRussianstrategicsystemsarerobust,reliable,andimperviousto
U.S.offensiveordefensivearsenals.83
Theconversationaboutthechangingnatureofwarfare,therolesofnuclearandnon-nuclear
weapons,anddeterrencehasbeenunderwayamongRussianexpertsandmilitaryofficialsfor
decades,beginningwiththewritingsofOgarkov.Thisconversationreflectsthedeepconviction
amongRussiananalystsandplannersthatRussiahasfallenfarbehindtheUnitedStatesinthe
developmentofhigh-precisionconventionalweaponryandnon-nucleardeterrentcapabilities.84It
alsoreflectstheirviewthatgradually,theperformancecharacteristicsofnon-nuclear,high-precision
weaponsareimprovingsomuchthattheycouldbegintotakeonthefunctionsthatuntilnowhave
beenassignedexclusivelytonuclearweapons.85Asaresult,thetaskfacingtheRussianmilitaryof
deterringsuperioradversariesequippedwithsuchsystemsisincreasinglychallenging.86
Despitebravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclear
shieldisinvincibleandcapableofreliablydefending
againstanddeterringanyenemy,Russiandefense
expertsappeartoharbordoubts.
TheranksofRussianmilitaryanalystsincludeanumberofskepticswhodoubtnotsomuchthe
relativestateofaffairsinthedevelopmentofU.S.andRussianarsenalsasthepropositionthat
conventionalhigh-precisionsystemswillbeabletotakeovermissionsassignedtonuclear
systems.87TheseskepticsbelievethattheprincipalthreattoRussiasnucleardeterrentand
retaliatorycapabilitiesisposedbyU.S.nuclearsystemsandthatpriorityshouldbegivento
programsintendedtocounterthosesystems.However,eventheseskepticsconcludethatalthough
non-nuclear,precision-guidedweaponscannotsupplantnuclearweapons,theycanaffectthe
strategicbalanceinsignificantways.88
Tomeetthischallenge,Russiandefenseexpertscontinuetoemphasizenuclearweapons.Although
muchhasbeenmadeoftheseriesofRussianconventionalshipbornecruisemissilestrikesfromthe
CaspianSeaagainsttargetsinSyria,thesemuch-toutedcapabilitiesintheeyesofRussianexperts
areapparentlynotyetsufficienttodeterNATOthreatstoRussiainEurope.89
InSeptember2014,DmitryRogozin,thedeputyprimeministerinchargeofdefenseindustries,
pledgedtomodernizetheentireRussianstrategicnuclearforcesby2020,notmerely70percentas
previouslyplanned.90AccordingtoShoigu,56percentofRussiannuclearweaponsarenew.91The
chiefoftheGeneralStaff,GeneralValeryGerasimov,echoedRogozinsvowandreferredto
prioritydevelopmentofstrategicnuclearforcesastheMinistryofDefensesmostimportanttask.92
However,despitetheseacceleratedprogramsandbravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclear
shieldisinvincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterringanyenemy,Russian
defenseexpertsappeartoharbordoubtsthatthesemeasuresaresufficient.93Thus,somehave
suggestedthatevendeployingIskandershort-rangeballisticmissiles,capableofcarryingnuclear
warheads,toCrimeaandKaliningradmayproveinsufficienttodeterpotentialenemies.94Instead,
toaccomplishthatgoal,RussiamayhavetowithdrawfromtheIntermediate-RangeNuclear
ForcesTreatyandreintroducethatclassofweaponsintoitsarsenal.95Russiancommentators
maintainthatsuchastepisbeingcontemplatedbecauseofthecombinedthreatofNATOmissile
defenseinEuropeandtheacquisitionofintermediate-rangemissilesbyPakistan,India,andIran.96
Russiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalong
time.
OfficialstatementsofferassurancesthatRussiawillusenuclearweaponsonlyintwocircumstances:
inretaliationforastrikeagainstitoritsalliesusingnuclearweaponsorsomeotherformof
weaponsofmassdestructionorifRussiaisavictimofanaggressionthatusesconventional
weaponsbutthreatenstheverysurvivaloftheRussianstate.97However,Russiandefensepolicy
discussionsrevealthatseniorRussiandefenseplannersalsocontemplateanothercontingency:
launchingpreventivenuclearstrikes,whetherofalimitednatureintendedtode-escalateaconflict
oronalargerscale.98ThiscouldamounttoyetanothertacitadmissionofRussiandefense
plannerslackofconfidenceintheirsecond-strikecapability.Iftheydontusetheirnuclear
weapons,inotherwords,theylosethem.
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussiandefensepolicyandwillremainsofor
alongtime.Russiandefenseexpertsandofficialsreadilyadmitthattheirindustrialandtechnological
inferioritywillpreventthemfrommatchingU.S.advancedmilitarytechnologiesintheforeseeable
future.99Thisundoubtedlyfeedstheiralreadydeeplyheldfeelingofinsecurityandinferiorityvis--
vistheWest,whichisonlyreinforcedbytheproliferationofnewtechnologiesandcapabilitiesfor
differentformsofwarfare.
AsifU.S.nuclear,high-precisionconventional,andmissiledefensetechnologieshavenotbeen
enoughtofuelanxietiesofRussiandefenseplanners,theadventofcyberwarfarehasaddedtotheir
senseofinsecurity.ThisisnottosaythatRussiahasnotsustaineditsownvastcyberwarfareeffort
orinvestedpriortotheadventofcybertechnologyinwhatRussiandefenseexpertscallradio-
electronicwarfareorinformationwarfare.Ithas.However,theinformationrevolutionand
universalcomputerizationofeverysphereofstateandsocietalactivityhascreatedamultitudeof
newthreats.
Theworldisenteringanewphaseofwarfare,accordingtoRussiandefenseexperts,whoassert
thatcyberwarfareisnolongerawarofthefuture.100Itistakingplacenowanew,fifthdomain,
alongwithland,air,sea,andspace,inwhichwarcanandwillbewaged.Cyberwarfaretakes
precedenceoverkineticwarfareandisbeingundertakenbystatescontinuously.Theboundary
betweenwarandpeaceisbeinggraduallyerased.CyberwarfarecanthreatenRussiainawide
varietyofways,fromparalyzinganddestroyingitsinfrastructuretodisablingitscomputernetworks
orinsertingdeliberatelyfalseinformationanddisseminatingittothepopulation.Accordingto
Russianexperts,thedestructivepotentialofcyberweaponsiscomparabletothatofnuclear
weapons.101Cyberweaponscancreatepanic,plungesocietiesintochaos,underminelegitimate
governments,suppressanationswilltoresistaggression,andparalyzeitsarmedforces.Theycan
winwarsbeforeeventhefirstshotisfired.102Understandingtheconsequencesofthisformof
warfareisofutmostimportancefortheRussianmilitary,whichhasalreadybegunthiseffort.103
InformationwarfarehaslongbeenamajorareaofinterestandconcernforRussiannational
securityofficials.TheRussianSecurityCounciladoptedtheDoctrineofInformationSecurityof
RussianFederationasearlyas2000andsincethenhasdevelopedawholelibraryofsupporting
documentstoguideRussianpolicyinthissphere.104Sincethen,Russianconcernsaboutthreats
posedbyoffensiveoperationsofcyberwarandinformationwarhaveincreasedmanifold,andthe
issuehasbeenactivelydiscussedamongdefenseandsecurityexperts.105The2016National
SecurityStrategystatesthatintheinterestofprotectingstateandpublicsecurity,thegovernment
willundertakethenecessarystepstoimprovetheprotectionofcitizensandsocietyfromtheeffects
ofdestructiveinformationpropagatedbyextremistsandterroristorganizations,foreignintelligence
services,andpropagandaoutlets.106
ThesensitivityandurgencyofthepotentialthreattoRussiafromthecyberdomainwasunderscored
in2014whenPutindeclaredGoogleaspecialprojectoftheU.S.CentralIntelligenceAgency
andurgedRussianstoavoidusingit.TheRussianleaderscommentsaboutU.S.controlofthe
Internet,combinedwiththeRussiangovernmentslong-termpursuittoestablishsovereigncontrol
overRussiasportionoftheInternet,reflecttheinsecuritynotonlyoftheelitesbutalsoofthe
generalpublicaboutthecountrysvulnerabilitytocyberattacksandinformationattacksfrom
adversaries,bothrealandimagined.107ThisinsecuritygoessofarastomotivatetheRussian
governmenttoseekwaystocontroltheRussianInternetandevenconsiderwaystoineffectunplug
RussiafromtheInternetinanemergency.108SovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternet
hasbeenalong-standinggoaloftheRussiangovernmentspositionininternationalforumsdealing
withInternetgovernanceagoalthathasservedasanelementofRussian-Chinesepartnershipin
oppositiontoU.S.andotherWesternnationspursuitofthefreeflowofinformationwithout
borders.109Inthefuture,theRussiangovernmentspursuitofcapabilitiestoregulateand,if
necessary,switchofftheInternetisexpectedtointensifyasitconsidersafreeandunimpeded
IntheviewofRussiannationalsecurityexperts,thefuturehasarrived.TheeffectonRussiahas
beentoaggravateitssenseofencirclement,compounditsvulnerabilities,andmultiplythreatstoit.
WarbyOtherMeans
ThedeteriorationofthisperceivedthreatenvironmentintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisishas
spawnedadiscussionamongRussiannationalsecurityexpertsaboutvariousformsofnonkinetic,
nonstopwarfarewagedbytheWestagainstRussiaeveninpeacetime.Inadditiontoinformation
warandcyberwarfare,theyhavefocusedonWesterneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaasaform
ofcontinuous,undeclaredwarfare.
TheKremlinsresponsetosanctionscanbesummedupasamovetowardeconomicnationalism
andisolationism.WhenVisaandMasterCardcutoffservicestotwoRussianbanksthatwere
sanctionedbytheUnitedStates,themovehighlightedfortheRussiangovernmenttheeconomys
heavyrelianceonWesternpaymentsystemsanditsresultingvulnerabilitytofurtherWestern
sanctions.Inresponse,theCentralBankofRussiahasannouncedaplantocreateanational
paymentsystemtoinsulateRussiafromWesternpressureintheeventofanewroundof
sanctions.111ThemorerecentthreattocutoffRussianaccesstoSWIFT(SocietyforWorldwide
InterbankFinancialTelecommunication)hasledtheRussiangovernmenttoconsideroptionsfor
settingupanalternativeinpartnershipwithChina.112
Thedefense-industrialsectorhasbeendirectedtodiminishandeventuallyeliminateitsrelianceon
foreignsuppliers.113Thedesiretoenddependenceonforeignsuppliersisnotlimitedtothedefense
sector,forinMay2016,Putintaskedthecabinetwithstimulatingdomesticmanufacturingand
developingsubstitutesforforeignimportsthroughouttheeconomy.Inafurthermovetoinsulatethe
economyfromforeigninfluence,Putinorderedthegovernmenttodevelopandimplementstepsfor
deoffshorizationofmajorindustrialenterprisesbydevelopingtax,accounting,andcriminal
legislationaimedatdiscouragingcompaniesfromlocatingfacilitiesoffshore.114
Theideathatsanctionsrepresentaformofwarfareoraninstrumentofcoercionishardlynewor
uniquetoRussia.Ithasalonghistory,andrecordeddiplomacyandwarfarearerepletewith
examplesofitdatingallthewaytoancientGreece.115Nonetheless,Westernsanctionsandthe
economicslumpthathasfollowedtheirimpositionalthoughcausednotonlybythem
undoubtedlyhaveunderscoredRussiasvulnerabilitytooutsideforcesandthehostileenvironment
aroundit.
ThetakeoverofCrimeabytheRussianmilitaryand,subsequently,theoperationsineastern
UkrainehavefocusedtheattentionofforeignandRussianobserversonso-calledhybridwarfare.
Thisterm,whichreferstoawiderangeofkineticandnonkineticactivitiesbymilitarypersonneland
civilians,hasbeenthesubjectofextensivediscussionsinRussiaasbothathreattoRussiansecurity
andRussiasresponsetothreatstoitposedbyhostilepowers.
WesternofficialsandanalystshavefocusedonhybridwarfareprimarilyasaresultofRussias
undeclaredwarinUkraine,whichentailsamixofspecialforces,civilians,informationoperations,
cyberattacks,and,onsomeoccasions,uniformedmilitarypersonnel.116Presumably,acombination
ofthesecapabilitiesinacrisisenvironmentcanbeusedtoachievesurpriseandconfusethe
adversaryandtoaccomplishpoliticalandmilitaryobjectiveswithoutresortingtolarge-scalekinetic
warfareandanoutrightwardeclaration,whichinturncanpresentanadversarywithafaitaccompli
andavoidunnecessarycasualtiesandescalationofhostilitiesforRussia.Countriesthatshare
borderswithRussia,especiallytheBalticstates,someofwhichhavelargeRussianpopulations,are
especiallyvulnerabletothistypeofwarfare,Westernofficialshavewarned.117
Russianrelianceonsuchformsofwarfarehastheadditionalimportantbenefitofambiguity.Inthe
absenceofanoutrightmilitaryinterventionbyRussiainoneormoreBalticstates,NATOwould
lackclearevidenceofRussianaggression,thusrunningtheriskofconfusionandcontroversy
amongtheallieswithrespecttomilitaryactionindefenseoftheBalticstatesinaccordancewiththe
alliancesArticle5guarantees.
RussiandefenseexpertsalsochargethattheWestisconductinghybridwarfareagainstRussia
throughacombinationofmilitaryandothermeans,includingsanctionsandinformationwarfare.118
TheirinterpretationofhybridwarfareunderscoresthedestabilizingfunctionoftheWests
democracypromotionactivitiesspecificallythecolorrevolutionsinthecountriessurrounding
Russia.InRussiasview,thoseactivities,throughmeasureswellshortofwar,createazoneof
instabilityaroundRussia,encircleitwithWesternagentsofinfluence,andcreateopportunitiesfor
Westernintervention.119Moreover,instabilitythreatensnotonlyRussiasneighborsbutalsoRussia
itself,becausesupportforgroupsinsideRussiaopposedtotheRussiangovernmentcanalsobe
interpretedasanelementofhybridwarfare.120Large-scalewarfarehasbecomedangerous,even
suicidal,forthepartiesinvolved,duetothedestructionassociatedwithitwithorwithoutnuclear
weapons.Andthatinturnnecessitatesresortingtootherformsofwarfarethatcarrysmallerrisksof
catastrophicconsequences.
transformative.121Forexample,theynote,informationoperationshavelongbeenacriticalelement
ofstatesactivitiesintendedtomisleadanadversaryanddemoralizeitspopulationandcombatants.
Deploymentofmilitarypersonnelwithoutnationalinsigniaisalong-standingpracticeinwarfare,as
istheuseofproxiesandregularforcesundertheguiseofvolunteers.Theargumentaboutthe
noveltyofhybridwarfarethusdoesnotstanduptoscrutinyandiscontradictedbyalongandrich
historicalrecordofvariousconflicts.122
TheRussiangovernmentsapproachtodealingwithUkraine-relatedsanctionsimposedbythe
UnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionisindicativeofwhatRussianbehaviorcanbeexpectedto
belikeinfuturecrises.ByfocusingonsomeoftheweakerandpoorerEUandNATOmembers
GreeceorBulgaria,forinstanceRussianofficialshaveapparentlysoughttoundermineboth
organizationsconsensusonsanctionsagainstRussia.123Similarly,thereportedfinancialties
betweenFrancesfar-rightNationalFrontandaMoscow-basedbankarelikelyintendedtosecure
aRussianfootholdinFrenchdomesticpoliticsandtoseektoinfluenceFrenchpolicy.124Political
partiesandindividualpoliticiansandofficialsintheCzechRepublic,Germany,andLatviahaveall
beentargetedbytheRussiangovernment.125
maneuvering,diversionarytroopmovements,activationofsleeperagentsandfriendlylocals,
infiltrationofspecialforces,reconnaissance,andvariousothermilitary,paramilitary,andcivilian
personnelareallfairgame.Corruption,blackmail,relianceoncriminalnetworks,andovert
economicassistanceareallfairgameasmeansofpreparingthebattlefieldorachievingpolitical
objectivesbeforethefirstshotisfired.
ABleakOutlook
EuropeandEurasiaiswelljustified.TherearemanyuncertaintiesinRussiasfuture,aswellasin
thoseofitsneighbors,potentialpartners,allies,andadversaries.However,thoseuncertainties
disappearwhenitcomestothisprediction:theabilitiesofRussianleaders,militaryplanners,and
diplomatswillbethoroughlytestedintheyearsanddecadestocomeasafunctionofthedifficult
geopoliticalenvironmentandmultiplechallengesthecountryisfacingathome.
PredictingthetrajectoryofRussiaisaninherentlydifficulttask.Fewpredictedthebreakupofthe
SovietUnionbeforeitunraveledrapidly.Fewpredictedthatthecountrywoulddissolverelatively
peacefully.Fewpredictedtheeconomiccalamitythatfollowed,therecoveryofRussiaadecade
later,theeconomicboomthatfollowed,theprotestsof2012,thewarwithUkraine,andthe
virulentlyanti-WesternturninRussiandomesticandforeignpolicies.Allofthesemajorshifts
occurredintheshorthistoricallyspeakingspanoftwenty-fiveyears.
Acomparableseriesofeventsinthenextdecadeordecadeandahalfcouldtheoreticallyresultin
thebreakupofRussiaintoaseriesofsmallerstates,someofthemwithnuclearweaponsontheir
territoriesanotherwarintheSouthCaucasusanewrapprochementwiththeWestnecessitatedby
theneedformodernization,economicaid,andhelpconsolidatingnuclearweaponsinwhatsleftof
Russiaproper.AndallofthesecouldbefollowedbytheriseofanationalistRussianregimebenton
gatheringthelostempireandreconstitutingthegreatRussianstate,triggeringyetanotherconflict
withbothimmediateneighborsandtheWest.
Insum,noforecastofRussiasfuturecanbereducedtoastraightline.Russiahastoexplore
multiplepossibilities.Ithastoconsiderpossibilitiesthatareliterallystrangerthanfiction.Andthenit
hastocautionthereadertotakeallwithabiggrainofsalt.
ConsideringthemanychangesinRussiainthepastquartercentury,itiseasytooverlookthefact
thateventhoughthecountryunderwentamajorpoliticalshockwhentheSovietUnionbrokeup,its
politicalsystemisquitewellestablished.DespitesignificantdifferencesbetweentheYeltsinera,the
Putinpresidency,andtheMedvedevinterregnum,thepoliticalsystemchangedlittle.Described
earlyinitsdevelopmentbylongtimeRussiaexpertThomasGraham,ithasremainedessentiallyan
oligarchywithallthetrappingsofamoderndemocracy,butwithoutinternalideologicaldifferences
andmotivatedonlybycompetitionforpropertyamongoligarchicgroupsorclans.126Atthecenter
ofthisarrangementstandsapowerfulpresidentwhosemissionistomanagecompetitionamong
clansandthusmaintaindomesticstability.
EstablishedearlyduringtheYeltsinpresidency,thissystemhassurvivedlargelyintact.Someclans
andoligarchshavedeparted,andothershavereplacedthem.Thepowerofthepresidencyhas
increasedordecreaseddependingonthepersonalityoftheincumbent.Butthroughitall,thesystem
initsessencehasremainedintact.Keyfeaturesofthissystemapowerfulexecutive,theclose
relationshipbetweenpowerandproperty,theirconcentrationinthehandsofarelativelysmallelite,
thelackofarepresentativegovernment,andtheprevalenceoftherulingideologypredatethe
currentRussianregimeandhavetheirrootsintheSovietandimperialRussianperiods.Littleonthe
countryspoliticallandscapesuggeststhatthesystemislikelytoundergosignificantchangesinthe
foreseeablefuture.Itmayundergosomechangesonthemargins,butthereisnothinginRussian
domesticpoliticstoindicatethatamorerepresentativeformofgovernmentislikelytoemergeinthe
nexttentofifteenyears.Yet,changemayberequiredforthecountrytoovercomethemany
obstaclesfacingit.
StagnationLooms
prospects.AsnotedbymanyRussianobserversquotedinthispaper,theproblemisnotjustthat
thepriceofoilisloworthatthesanctionsimposedbytheEUandtheUnitedStateshavehurtthe
Russianeconomy.TheentiremodelofeconomicdevelopmentpursuedbyRussiainthepast
decadeandahalf,theobserversconclude,hasoutliveditself.
SomeRussiananalystshavenotedthesimilaritybetweenPutinsRussia,nowintheseventeenth
yearoftheRussianpresidentstenureatthehelm,andtheSovietUnionduringtheeraofLeonid
Brezhnev,wholedthecountryforeighteenyearsfrom1964to1982.127Then,too,theSoviet
Unionhadreachedadeadendandhadtoradicallychangecourseindomesticandforeignaffairs.
Russiasnextpresidentialelectionisscheduledin2018.Putin,whowillthenbesixty-fiveyearsold,
willendhisthirdpresidentialtermandwilleitherrunforyetanothersix-yeartermorstepaside
eitherasatacticalmeasureorasamovetowardretirement.ThelikelihoodofPutinsteppingaside
retiring,ratherthanasatacticalmoveappearslowatthetimeofthiswriting.128
Moreover,Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalstageshouldnotbeequatedwithimproved
prospectsforpoliticaloreconomicmodernizationinRussia.Theupperechelonofthecountrys
politicaleliteiscomposedofpeoplewhoseoutlooksandbackgroundsaresimilartoPutins.Their
prospectsforimplementingmajorchangesinthecountryspoliticalsystemoreconomyappear
equallymodestatbest
IfPutinLeaves
Nonetheless,theconsequencesofPutinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneareworthconsidering
ifonlyasanintellectualenterprise.TheRussianpresidentsretirementattheendofhiscurrentterm
wouldbefollowedbyanelectioninwhichanewleaderwouldbechosen.Thatishowtheprocess
issupposedtoworkformally,andthereislittlechancethatitwillnot.
Inreality,PutinsdeparturewouldholdthepossibilityofasignificantdestabilizationofRussian
politics.Heoccupiesauniquelypowerfulplaceinthecountryspoliticalsystem,actingasthe
centralfigureamongvariousinterestsgroupsandclans,balancingtheircompetingdemandsand
adjudicatingtheirdisputes.129NootherpoliticiancomesclosetoPutinsstandinginthatsystem.He
hasnopoliticalheirorsecond-in-command.TheprimeministercurrentlyDmitryMedvedev
stepsintemporarilyifthepresidentisincapacitatedordiesinoffice,untilanewpresidentiselected
withinninetydays.Few,ifany,politicalanalystswouldarguethatMedvedevisacrediblecandidate
forthepresidencytosucceedPutinorapowerfulfigureinRussiandomesticpolitics.
Intheabsenceofadesignatedpoliticalsuccessor,theprocessofnominatingacandidatefromthe
politicaleliteso-calledthepartyofpowerwouldbehighlycontested,almostcertainlymoreso
thantheelectionitself.Suchintra-elitestrugglestookplaceduringthe20072008period,when
Putinssecondtermwasduetoexpirebuthehadnotyetdesignatedhissuccessorormadeclear
hisownplans.Similarly,in2011,Russianeliteswereunsettledbythelackofclarityaboutthefuture
oftheMedvedev-Putintandem.
likelihoodofcoalescingaroundasinglecandidate.Buttheprocessofselectingthatsinglecandidate
islikelytobecontentious,resultinginafiercecompetitionamongclansandinterestgroups.
Thenomineewouldbevirtuallycertaintowintheelection.Russiasbeleagueredpoliticalopposition
hasbeendecimatedasaresultofaseriesofsystematicmeasuresbythePutinadministrationtolimit
theabilityofoppositionpartiesandcivilsocietyatlargetoorganize,recruitmembers,raisefunds,
orinanyotherwayparticipateinthepoliticallifeofthecountry.Noseriouscontenderforthe
presidencyabletocompetewiththeonenominatedbythepartyofpowerislikelytoemergefrom
theranksoftheopposition.
However,theelectionwouldnotmarktheendofpoliticalinstabilityinRussia.Thenewleader
wouldhavetoworkhardtoconsolidatehis(mostlikelynother)powerandrestoretheequilibrium
amongclansdisruptedbyPutinsdeparture.Thiswouldalmostcertainlybeaprocessthatwould
takeyears,giventhesizeofthecountry,themultitudeofitsclansandinterestgroups,regional
interests,andthesorrystateoftheeconomythatwouldalmostcertainlyleadtofiercecompetition
amongclansforalargershareoftheshrinkingpie.
Howlikelyisthecountrysnewpresidenttointroducemajorreformsindomesticorforeignaffairs
inthatenvironment?SuchreformsnotunliketheGorbachev-eradtentewiththeWestinforeign
policyandmovementtowardderegulationandmarketcapitalismwouldundoubtedlyprove
controversialandpoliticallydifficult,fortheywouldaffectinterestsofvariousclansvestedinthe
statusquo.Anynewleaderwouldhavetotakethatintoaccount.Anewleaderwouldalsohaveto
takeintoaccountthefragilityoftheRussianeconomyandprobablybemindfulthatGorbachevs
reformsendedincatastrophethebreakupofthecountry.Withthisbaggage,anynewleader
wouldlikelyproceedwithextremecaution,ifatall.Thelikelyoutcomeofthisscenariowouldbea
continuationofPutinism,butwithoutPutin,fortheremainderofthisdecade,ifnotlonger.Change
wouldhavetowaituntillater,perhapsuntilthesuccessorssecondpresidentialterm.
Oncechangecomes,itcouldprovedestabilizing.AfutureRussianleaderlaunchingmajorreforms
inthemiddleofthethirddecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywouldhavetocontendwithamultitude
ofchallenges,including
astagnanteconomy
highbarrierstodomesticandforeigninvestmentexcessivegovernmentregulation,weak
ruleoflaw,corruption,andpoorinfrastructureand
geopoliticalgravitationalpolesChina,Turkey,Europewillcreatepowerfulcentrifugalforces
andgreatlycomplicatethetaskofthefederalgovernmentofmanagingtheeconomyandpolitical
system.Russia,whichisorganizedasafederation,couldfacesomeofthesameseparatist
tendenciesthattheSovietUnionencounteredamongitsconstituentrepublicsinitsfinalyears.
Alternatively,thiscouldresultinasignificantdelegationofpowerandauthoritytotheregions.The
possibilityoffurtherfragmentationoftheRussianstatehastobeconsideredasoneofreal
contingenciestofaceRussiaattheendofthe2020s.
IfPutinStays
whetherheiscapableofchange.Putinsreturntothepresidencyin2012provedasetbackfor
Russiasreformersandadvocatesofmodernizationafteraperiodwhenprospectsforeconomic
andpoliticalmodernizationlookedrelativelybright.Since2012,theyhavedimmedconsiderably,
andintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisistheyappeartobenearlyextinguished.
Theneedforchangeinthecountryseconomicandpoliticallifecloselyrelatedtoeachotheris
widelyunderstoodandacknowledgedinRussiansociety.Itisequallywidelyunderstoodthat
significantchangecouldprovedestabilizingfortheestablishedpoliticalsystem.Asmentioned,the
experienceoftheGorbachev-erareformscontinuestoserveasapotentcautionaryreminderofthe
dangersassociatedwithradicalchange.
Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeanda
half,regardlessofPutinscourse.
Putinhasfirmlyandrepeatedlyrejectedtheideaofpoliticalmodernizationasathreattothe
countrysstability.Hisentirethirdtermcanbedescribedasantimodernization,including
suppressionofcivilsociety,isolationofRussiafromEuropeandtheUnitedStates,propagandaof
so-calledtraditionalRussianvaluesasdifferentfromEuropeanvaluesandnorms,proud
declarationsthatRussiaisnotEurope,andapushtoautarkyineconomicdevelopmentto
inoculatethecountryfromthethreatofWesternsanctions.MovesbytheKremlintoassertthe
supremacyofRussianlawsoverinternationaltreatiessignedbyRussiaanddisconnectthecountry
fromtheInternetaresymbolicoftheantimodernizationspiritthathaspermeatedRussianpolitics
andpolicymakingsincePutinsreturntothepresidency.
Putinhasraisedtheissueofeconomicmodernizationinhisspeechesrepeatedly.However,his
recordinofficesincehisaccessiontothepresidencyin2000ofconsistent,step-by-step,
deliberateconsolidationofpoliticalpowerandeconomicleversinthehandsofthestateorasmall
groupofassociatescloselytiedtothestatespeaksmuchlouderthanhiswords.Ifhewereto
becomeamodernizerlateinhispoliticalcareer,itwouldbearadicaldeparturefromeverythinghe
hasdoneuntilnow.
Increasingly,economicmodernizationinRussiarequirespoliticalmodernizationaswell,andashift
fromthesmall,Kremlin-centeredoligarchytoamoreopeneconomicsystemwithstrongerruleof
law,transparency,andadegreeofcompetitiveness.Thatwillrequirereformsthatwouldchallenge
theverypoliticalorderthatforthepastdecadeandahalfhasservedasthefoundationofRussian
domesticstabilityandPutinspersonalpowerandhasitsrootsinthesystemthatemergedsoon
afterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.Theoutlookforachangeofsuchmagnitudeisnot
encouragingfortheforeseeablefuture.
Underthepresentconstitutionalarrangement,andassumingPutinisreelectedin2018,hewill
remaininofficeuntil2024.Hewillbeseventy-onethenstillrelativelyyoungandquiteplausibly
notreadytodepartthepoliticalstage.TheprospectofPutinremainingatthehelmasfaras2030is
quitereal,justastheprospectofhischangingcourseisquiteremote.
ThisisnottosaythatRussiawillcontinueindefinitelyalongitspresentglidepath.Theabsenceof
reformsandlackofprogresstowardmodernizingthecountryspoliticalsystemandeconomyare
boundtotaketheirtollonitseconomy,itspolitics,anditsinternationalstanding.Thisisalmost
certaintotriggerdiscontinuitiespolitical,security,andeconomic.Thatsaid,anyattemptbyPutin
orhissuccessortotacklethischallengeisfraughtwithsignificantrisksofdiscontinuity.Inshort,
Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,regardlessofPutinscourse.
Theweaknessofandsevererestrictionsonoppositionpoliticalpartiesandcivicorganizations
virtuallyprecludethepossibilityofapowerfulstructuredchallengetothePutinregime.However,
therestrictionsonorganizedpoliticalactivitiescandolittletolimitspontaneousmanifestationsof
discontentandgrassrootsactionsinresponsetoadecliningstandardofliving,actionsoflocal
authorities,orintercommunal,interracial,orinterconfessionaltensions.130Thegrowthofsuch
protestactivitiescould,overtime,developintoapersistentpattern,creatingopportunitiesfor
politicalchallengestotheregime.Theregimesinabilityorunwillingnesstotackletheunderlying
economicpoliticalandeconomicproblemscouldexacerbatethechallengeandthethreattothe
countrysdomesticstability.
Inadditiontothechallengetothecountryspoliticalstability,thelonglistofproblemsfacingthe
Russiangovernmentintheconditionsofastagnanteconomyandshrinkingresourcesincludesthe
threatofyetanotherdestabilizationintheNorthCaucasus,whererelativepeaceandstabilityhave
beenmaintainedthroughmassivefederaltransfersandcutsindefensespending,socialprograms,
science,education,andotherprograms.131Combinedwithlackofinvestmenteveninthecritical
energysector,thesecutsthreatencascadinglong-termeffectsontheeconomy,furtherundermining
itsabilitytoinnovate,diversify,andgrow,allofwhichpointtothesystemiccrisis.132
ChallengesAbroad
TomakemattersworseforRussianpolicymakers,theexternalenvironmenttheyarelikelytoface
alongtheimmediateperipheryofRussiaandbeyondpromisestobeequallychallenging.The
UkrainecrisishascompoundedthechallengesRussiannationalsecurityexpertshavelongfearedin
theEuro-Atlantictheater.Atthesametime,thebreakinrelationswithEuropeandtheUnited
StateshasnotresultedinnewpartnershipsoralliancesforRussiaelsewhere.Thishasoccurredata
timeofmajornewinstabilityintheinternationalarenaingeneralandinregionsnearRussiain
particular.
InEurope,RussianthreatperceptionsandconcernsaboutNATOslowlymovingitsmilitary
capabilitiestowarditsbordersarebecomingaself-fulfillingprophecyintheaftermathofthe
Ukrainecrisis.If,priortotheannexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,Russiawas
consideredbytheallianceasapossible,albeitincreasinglyunlikely,partner,thenRussianactionsin
Ukrainehaveputanendtosuchhopesforpartnershipandtransformedtherelationshipintoone
thatisopenlyadversarial.133Thealliancescommitmentnottopermanentlystationsubstantial
combatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembersinthecurrentandforeseeablesecurity
environmentdisappearedwiththeannexationofCrimea,theaggressionineasternUkraine,and
RussianthreatsagainsttheBalticstatesandotherNATOmembers.
TheUkrainecrisishasspurredNATOtoproceedwithactionspreviouslyconsideredonlyremote
andunlikelypossibilities.InresponsetowhatseniorNATOofficialsdescribeasthemost
dangerousthreattoEurope,NATOisundertakingaseriesofstepsthatincludethestationingof
U.S.andotherNATOtroopsandpre-positioningofequipment,includingheavyU.S.equipment,in
thefrontlinestatesfromtheBaltictotheBlackSeaplanningforandtrainingtodefendagainst
Russianaggressionandestablishmentofrapidresponseandbroaderresponseforces.134Andnow
Sweden,neutralfornearlytwocenturies,andFinland,neutralsince1948,arehavingactive
debatesaboutjoiningthealliance.135
Further,theUkrainecrisishaspromptedcallsfromWesternmilitaryanalyststocounterRussian
threatstoEuropewiththeverysystemsthatRussianassessmentshavelonghighlightedas
destabilizingandmostthreateningintheeventofacrisis.136Acombinationoflong-range,stealth,
andprecisiontechnologies,ifdeployedbyNATOalliesinacrisis,wouldbethefulfillmentof
Russiandefenseplannersworstexpectations.
confrontRussiainitsWesternstrategicdirection.ThebiggestchallengefacingRussiaalongits
westernfrontieristheunsettledconflictwithUkraine.RussianactionsinvolvingUkrainehave
servedasasourceoflong-term,deepenmitybetweentwocountriesthatpreviouslyhad
experiencednone.Furthermore,theyhavecreatedalong-termsourceofinstabilityinlieuofthe
predictable,ifstagnant,relationshipthathadexistedbetweenRussiaandUkraineforthequarter
centuryfromthebreakupoftheSovietUniontotheannexationofCrimea.
muddlingthroughorreturningtoRussiasorbit.Thisbleakprospectisaproductofseveral
circumstances:thelegacyofSovietrulecombinedwiththemisruleofthefirstquartercenturyof
independencethatleftUkraineacorruptoligarchythedepletedeconomybadlydamagedbythe
conflictineasternUkraineandreformsthatwereneverimplementedandthelackofinterestinthe
WesttosupportUkrainewiththesamecommitmentEuropeandtheUnitedStatesmadeto
integratetheformerWarsawPactcountriesandBalticstatesintotheWesternpolitical,economic,
andsecuritystructures.Inaddition,theconflictineasternUkraineislikelytobesettledonlyas
frozenratherthanresolved,thusleavingapermanentwoundinUkrainesdomesticpolitics,
economy,andsecurity.
Themuddling-throughscenariohasUkrainestayingonitspresentcourseofdifficult,haltingpolitical
andeconomicreformsforthedurationofPresidentPetroPoroshenkostermuntil2019.This
scenariohasUkrainemakingintermittentprogressinthefollowingareas:someimprovementinits
investmentclimategradualstructuralreformsoftheeconomy,especiallytheenergysectorand
heavyindustrydecentralizationandsomecurbingofthepowerofoligarchs.Allofthesechanges
promisetobedifficultandpoliticallychallenging,threateningtounderminethegovernments
precariousstandinginthepollsandpossiblyleadingtoearlyparliamentaryelections,further
complicatingthegovernmentstask.Thisscenarioalsoentailsimplementingadifficultsecurity-
sectorreform,reequippingthearmedforces,andadaptingtoahostofEU-mandatedrequirements
thatmakeupUkrainesAssociationAgreementandfree-tradeagreementwiththeEU.Thisisa
highlyambitiousagendathatatbestcanbeonlypartlyfulfilled,evenbythemostambitious
reformersandwiththehelpofgenerousaid,whichisunlikelytomaterialize.Allthewhile,Ukraine
wouldbeunderseverepressurefromRussia.
Thealternativescenarioentailsastalledreformeffort,growingpopulardiscontent,andgridlockin
theparliament.Together,thesewouldhaveaparalyzingeffectontheabilityofthegovernmentto
function.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)agreementwouldthenbejeopardized,leadingto
ahaltinIMFassistancetoUkraine.OtherdonorassistanceconditionedoncompliancewithIMF
requirementswouldalsobeimperiled.Thisturnofeventswouldprecipitateanothercrisis,afailure
oftherulingcoalitionandearlyparliamentaryandpossiblypresidentialelectionsrestoringtopower
alessreform-mindedleadershipandreturningUkrainetothedysfunctionaloligarch-dominated
stateithadbeeninpriortotheEuromaidanantigovernmentuprisingin20132014.Thisscenario
alsoentailsthenewgovernmentsgradualaccommodationwithRussiainexchangeforfinancial
subsidiesintheformoffavorabletermsforgastradeorloans.TheaccommodationwithRussia
wouldprovecontroversialwithmanyinUkraine,leadingtoadividedpolityandpermanentpolitical
tensions,polarization,andgovernmentdysfunction.
Ineitherscenario,fortheforeseeablefuture,Ukraineislikelytoremainafragilestatestruggling
withdomesticreformsandcaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.NeitherRussianor
EuropeandtheUnitedStatesislikelytocountonUkraineasareliablepartner.ForbothRussia
andtheWest,Ukrainepromisestobeasourceofeconomicandsecuritychallengesaswellasa
majorsubjectoflong-termtensionsanddiscordintheirbilateralrelations.
Similarlycaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWestisUkrainesnorthernneighbor
Belarus.Ruledbyawilyauthoritarianleader,AleksandrLukashenko,formorethantwodecades,
thecountryhassurvivedinlargemeasurethankstoitsspecialrelationshipwithRussiaandhuge
subsidiesfromMoscow,coupledwitharepressiveregimethathassucceededineliminatingor
marginalizingallopposition.
SincethecrisisinUkraine,LukashenkohassoughttodistancehimselfsomewhatfromMoscow
andrebuildbridgestotheWest.HiseffortshavemetwithreciprocalstepsonthepartoftheEU.137
SomeofthisoutreachtotheWestisnodoubtduetothediminishingeconomicprospectsin
relationswithRussiaandtheneedforeconomicassistancetokeeptheregimeafloat.138
navigatingbetweenRussiaandtheWestprovedoverthecourseoftwodecadesandhisholdon
powerunchallenged,hecouldcontinuetomaneuverbetweenthetwoopposingsidesforanequally
longtime.
ThegreatestriskforLukashenkoorhissuccessorisinarapprochementwiththeWestthatRussia
wouldfindthreateningtoitsinterests.TheBelarusianborderisbarely300milesfromMoscow.A
pro-WesterngovernmentinMinskwouldundoubtedlybeseenbytheKremlininequally
threateningtermsasUkrainespursuitofanAssociationAgreementwiththeEU,ifnotmoreso.
BelarusiscloselyintegratedinRussiandefenseplanstocounterNATORussiahasambitionsfor
furtherintegrationandexpansionofitsmilitarypresencethere.139Lukashenkosstatedopposition
toaRussianairbaseinBelarusislikelytobeseeninMoscowasasignthattheBelarusianleaderis
notareliableallyandcannotbetrusted.140
AchangeinBelarussstrategicorientation,eitherasaresultofadeliberatedecisionbyLukashenko
orhissuccessor,orasaconsequenceofadomesticupheaval,couldforcetheKremlinshandto
launchyetanothermilitaryintervention.ThistimeitwouldbedirectlyonRussiasborderwiththree
NATOmemberstatesLatvia,Lithuania,andPoland.
Impoverished,smallMoldovahasneverrecoveredfromthelegacyofitsconflictfrozensince
1992withtheRussianminorityinbreakawayTransnistria.Thecountryhasbeenshakenby
repeatedscandalsandpoliticalproteststhathaveincapacitateditsgovernment.Moldovaremains
dividedbetweenthosewhoadvocateclosertieswithRomania,fromwhichitslargepartwassplit
offin1940asaresultoftheMolotov-RibbentropPact,andthosewhowantclosertieswith
Russia.141
Moldovaspoliticshasbeendysfunctionalformostofitshistoryasanindependentstate.Thereis
littleinthecountryscurrentpoliticaloreconomiclandscapeandoutlooktosuggestthatthenear-
permanentgridlockislikelytochangeandbereplacedbyabetter-functioninggovernmentthat
wouldmovethecountryclosereithertoRomaniaandtheEUortoRussia.Thepoliticalparalysis
andeconomicstagnationarethereforelikelytocontinueindefinitely,astheyhaveformuchofthe
pastquartercentury.
AnotherpossiblescenarioforMoldovaoverthenextdecadeoradecadeandahalfentailsa
gradualmigrationofMoldovancitizenstoRomania,takingadvantageofRomaniasofferof
passports.Thiswouldeffectivelycontinuethetrendofworking-ageMoldovansleavingtheir
homelandasguestworkerselsewhereinEuropeorinRussia.AccordingtoWorldBankdata,
between2011and2015,personalremittancesamountedtomorethan25percentofMoldovas
GDP.142RussiaseconomicslowdownislikelytoaffectMoldovanguestworkersthere,increasing
pressurestomigratetoEurope.RussiansanctionsagainstMoldovainretributionforitssigningan
AssociationAgreementwiththeEUarelikelytofurtherrestrictMoldovanguestworkersaccessto
Russia,thusincreasingpressuresformigrationtoRomania.143Thiswouldineffectstimulatea
gradualhollowingoutofMoldovaanditsdefactointegrationwithRomania.Aslongasthis
processdoesnottriggeractionsleadingtoamoreformalintegrationandanadversereactionfrom
Russia,thestatusquoinMoldovawouldremain.
OneofRussiasmajorbreakthroughrelationshipsaftertheColdWarwaswithTurkey.Thetwo
historicalrivalsbuiltanewrelationshipbasedonrecognitionofmutualbenefits.144Turkeyquickly
emergedasamajordestinationforRussiantraders,tourists,andenergycompanies.Turkish
companiesestablishedthemselvesintheRussianrealestatedevelopmentindustry,andTurkish
agriculturalproducersfoundareadymarketfortheirexportsinRussia.145
DefyingthelegacyoftheColdWarandcenturiesofgeopoliticalrivalrypriortothat,Russiaand
Turkeydevelopedapartnershipthatseemeddestinedtogetstronger.Theirpartnershipwas
buoyedbytwoimportantfactors.First,bothcountriesstruggledtofindtheirplaceinEurope,
which,despitepromisesofpartnership,keptthematarmslength.Theotherfactorwasthe
blossomingpersonalrelationshipbetweenthetwocountriespresidents,PutinandRecepTayyip
Erdoan.Bothproudoftheirreputationsasstrongleaderstransformingtheircountries,both
increasinglyaccusedofauthoritarianbehaviorathomeandcriticizedforitabroad,thetwo
presidentsweredescribedinaWashingtonPostarticlesheadlineasmadeforeachother.146
ThecivilwarinSyria,inwhichRussiahassupportedthegovernmentofSyrianPresidentBasharal-
AssadandTurkeyhassoughttooverthrowit,hasintroducedfrictionsintherelationshipbetween
AnkaraandMoscowbutdidnotchangewhatPutindescribedasitsfriendlyandcooperative
nature.147
TheRussian-Turkishrelationship,whichhadbeenfull
ofpromiseanddeliveredmuchtobothcountries,
almostinstantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialroots
withnoprospectofimprovementintheforeseeable
future.
geopoliticalrivalry,occurredinlateNovember2015,whenaTurkishF-16fightershotdowna
RussianSu-24groundattackaircraft.148TheTurkishgovernmentsaidatthetimethattheRussian
aircrafthadviolatedTurkishairspaceaclaimdisputedbytheRussiangovernment.Putin
describedTurkishactionsasastabinthebackandreferredtotheTurkishgovernmentas
accomplicesofterrorism.149PutinreportedlyrefusedtheTurkishpresidentsoutreachattempts,
andtheRussiangovernmentproceededtoimposeeconomicsanctionsonTurkey.150Arelationship
thathadbeenfullofpromiseforbothcountriesanddeliveredsomuchtobothalmostinstantly
revertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectofimprovementintheforeseeablefuture.151
HavingregainedCrimea,andwithitsecureditsholdontheBlackSeaFleetbaseinSevastopol,
RussiahassealedthetransformationoftheBlackSeaintoalong-termhostileenvironment.None
oftheBlackSealittoralstatescanbecountedonasapartnerbyRussianmilitaryplanners.All
exceptforUkraineandGeorgiaareNATOmembers.KyivandTbilisiviewRussiaasanaggressor
andthebiggestthreattotheirsurvivalasindependentandsovereignstates,andbothhavemade
membershipinthealliancethekeygoaloftheirnationalsecuritypolicies.ThesituationintheBlack
SearegionisfurtheraggravatedfromMoscowsstandpointbythebreakdowninRussian-Turkish
relationsfollowingRussiasmilitarydeploymenttoSyriaandtheshootingdownoftheRussian
aircraftbyTurkey.
ThesituationintheSouthCaucasusishardlymorereassuringforRussiandefenseplanners,albeit
fordifferentreasons,largelyunconnectedtoNATO.Theregion,hometothreefrozenconflictsin
Nagorno-Karabakh,Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia,ishighlylikelytoundergomajorchangesasa
functionofitsinternaldynamicsanddevelopmentsarounditinthenextfivetotenyears.
AmajordriverofchangeintheSouthCaucasuspromisestobeAzerbaijan.Hailedinthe1990sas
asecularIslamiccountrywithamoderateauthoritarianregimepresidedoverbyarelativelytolerant
pro-Westernleader,Azerbaijanalsohadvasteconomicpotentialthankstoitsoilwealthand
opennesstoforeignoilcompaniesinvestment.Little,ifany,ofthatpromisehasmaterialized.The
relativelybenignandconfidentdictatorshipofHeydarAliyevwasreplacedin2003bythe
kleptocratic,increasinglyinsecure,andhighlyintolerantregimeofhissonIlham.Theregimes
appealtothepublicbasedonitsclaimofdeliveringameasureofwell-beinghasbeenerodedby
thedeclineinthepriceofoilthathasdealtasevereblowtoAzerbaijanseconomy.152Moreover,
theprospectofdepletingitsmajoroildepositsthreatensthecountrywiththelossofitscritical
sourceofrevenueatatimewhenitsalternativestrategyofpositioningitselfasakeysupplierand
transithubofnaturalgashastocontendwiththesamefalloutfromthelowoilpriceenvironment.153
Theproteststhathaverockedthecountryastheeconomysputtersraisequestionsaboutthe
regimeslongevityandabilitytosustaindomesticstability.Intheeventofaprolongedeconomic
slumpcausedbylowoilprices,IlhamAliyevsregimewouldhaveseveraloptions,noneofthem
mutuallyexclusive:tocontinuetotightentherestrictionsontheoppositionandcivilsocietytotryto
useitsdecliningfinancialresourcestoaddressthemostpressingneedsandtoappealtonational
unityandpatriotismbyexploitingthethemeofNagorno-Karabakhandlaunchingamilitary
campaigntoregaintheoccupiedterritories.154
TheoutlookforAzerbaijancontainsbleakalternatives.Oneofthemisaninternaldestabilization
andlossofcontrolbytheregime.AnotherwouldberenewedconflictwithArmeniaoverNagorno-
Karabakh.Athirdpossibilityentailsboth.
IlhamAliyevssuppressionofnotjustalloppositionbutnearlyallcivicorganizationsand
manifestationsofindependentopinionhasunderminedAzerbaijanstieswithEuropeandtheUnited
States.Asaresult,theWestwouldnothavethenecessaryleveragetomoderatetheregimes
behaviordomesticallyorinternationally.155
ThefightingthatbrokeoutbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijaninApril2016servedasagrim
reminderofhowfragilethesituationisalongtheirlineofcontact.Tomakemattersworse,acrisis
involvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddrawintoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,
andIran.Allthreehavemajorstakesintheregion.RussiaandTurkeywouldverylikelybepitted
againsteachotherinthenewconflictsupportingtheirrespectiveclientstates.Internalturmoilin
AzerbaijanevenwithoutaconflictwithArmeniawouldalmostcertainlyinvolvemeddlingbyall
threeneighboringpowers,eachforitsownreasonsseekingtoexpanditsinfluenceinthecountry,
whichtheyconsidertobeofcriticalgeopoliticalimportance.
AcrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddraw
intoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,and
Iran.
WithRussia,Turkey,andIrancompetingforinfluenceinAzerbaijan,thecountryandthe
surroundingregioncouldexperiencespilloversfromtheconflictandtheneighborsreactionstoit.
ThesewouldalmostcertainlyaffectArmeniaandGeorgia,consideringtheboundarylinesdrawn
withoutregardtoethnicdivisions,andinfrastructureandsupplyroutesthattraversetheentire
region.
advantageofsharedborderswithAzerbaijan,whileTurkeyhastheadvantageofethnickinshipand
long-terminvestmentintherelationshipwithAzerbaijan.However,Russiahashadtodealwithits
owntroubledNorthCaucasusIranhastobemindfulofitsownAzerbaijaniTurkishpopulation
andTurkeywouldhavetocrossGeorgianorArmenianterritorytogettoAzerbaijan.Allofthese
arelikelytobecomplicatingfactorsfortheirinvolvementthere,thougheachofthesecomplicating
factorscouldserveasarationaleforinterveninginAzerbaijaniturmoil.
TheturmoilcouldlastforyearsandbecomepartofthelargerturmoilintheMiddleEast,withIran
andTurkeypittedagainsteachotherinSyria,Russian-Turkishrelationsattheirworstsincethe
ColdWar,andweapons,refugees,militants,andillicitgoodscrossinginalldirections.The
Caucasusregionmaynotseestabilityreturnforadecadeorlonger.
Onceameasureofstabilityisrestored,theregion,boththeNorthandtheSouthCaucasus,may
notberecognizable,withnewbordersandpossiblyevensomestatesdisappearingfromthemap.
TheshapeoftheregionislikelytobedeterminedbydevelopmentsaroundtheregionRussias
owntrajectoryandabilitytosecuretheNorthCaucasusTurkeysabilitytohandleitsKurdish
problemthefutureofIraqandtheconflictinSyria.Allofthesewillhaveabearingonthe
Caucasusregion,whichisnolongerseparated,asitoncewas,fromtheGreaterMiddleEast.
Whatisclear,however,isthattheregionisheadingintoanuncertainfuturefullofdangersallof
thatonRussiasdoorstep.
CentralAsiaisinthemidstofabiggeopoliticalchangewhoseconsequencesforRussiaandEurasia
arelikelytobefeltinthenextdecadeandbeyond.Thefirstquartercenturyofindependencefor
thefivestatesofformerlySovietCentralAsiawasatimeofestablishingtheirownstatehood,
securingtheirsovereignty,andbuildinglinkstotheoutsideworld.Formuchofthatperiod,the
West,andespeciallytheUnitedStates,playedakeyroleasasupporterofthefivestates
independence,sovereignty,andintegrationintotheinternationalarena.156
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,
Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantin
CentralAsia,theregionisallbutcertaintoshiftits
geopoliticalorientationfromtheWesttotheEast.
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope,theWorldBank,andtheIMF,aswellas
NATOandtheEU.Moreover,thankstotheU.S.-ledcampaigninAfghanistan,theWestservedas
amajorsecurityprovidertoCentralAsiafornearlyadecadeandahalfaftertheSeptember11,
2001,terroristattacks.Insum,forthefirstquartercenturyofCentralAsiasindependence,the
Westplayedakeyroleinensuringtheregionssecurity.EvenRussia,asaEuropeanpower,albeit
notcontenttoseetheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesinvolvedinitsjealouslyguardedbackyard,
ineffectservedasaconnectiontoEuropeforCentralAsia.
Thatisnowchanging.TheUnitedStatesisactivelylookingtodisengagefromAfghanistan,oratthe
veryleasttominimizeitsrolethere,whilemanyU.S.allieshavepulledtheirforcesoutof
Afghanistanaltogether.TheWestsroleasasecurityproviderforCentralAsiaisending.
Tradeandinvestmentflows,too,aredrivingCentralAsiatowardadifferentgravitationalpolefrom
theWestChina.ChinastradewithCentralAsiahasincreasedmorethanahundredfoldinthe
pastquartercenturyandpassedthe$50billionmarkin2013.Chineseinvestmentinpipelines,
roads,andenergyexplorationismeasuredinthetensofbillionsofdollarsandisprojectedtogrow
further,asChinaplansambitiousnewprojectsfortheregioninthenextdecade.Russiahasbeen
losingtheeconomiccompetitionwithChinainCentralAsia,whiletheUnitedStatesandEurope
barelyregisterastradepartners.157
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantin
CentralAsia,theregionisallbutcertainfortheforeseeablefuturetoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientation
fromtheWest,towhichitwasleaningduringthefirstquartercenturyofitsindependence,tothe
East.Thisisboundtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforallinvolved.
FortheCentralAsianstates,aswellasforRussiaandChina,thismeansthattheUnitedStateswill
nolongerbeprovidingsecurityfortheregion.Agreaterburdeninthisrespectwillfallonthe
CentralAsiastatesthemselves,aswellasontheirimmediateneighbors,especiallyRussiaand
China.ThisraisesthequestionofRussiasabilitytoactastheregionssecuritymanagerforCentral
AsiainlightofMoscowslimitedcapabilitiesandchallengeselsewhere,andofChinaswillto
engageintheregioninaroleithasbeenreluctanttoassume.Theresultofthischangewillbe
greateruncertaintyandpotentiallygreaterinstabilityfacingRussianplannersastheycontemplatethe
futureoftheregionthattheyhavelongviewedasamajorvulnerabilityontheirperiphery.Itseems
nothingisstableandsecureonRussiasthresholdanywhere,initsfrontyardoritsbackyard.
Conclusion
neighborsandfeelsdeeplythreatenedbythem.Itssenseofvulnerabilityandinferiorityvis--visthe
Westislong-standinganddeep,anditissurroundedbyavast,diverse,andturbulentregionwitha
multitudeofpotentialcrisesthatholdoutthepossibilityofescalatingintolargerconflicts.This
unstablesituationinEuropesEastandEurasiaisaproductoftheinterplayoverthepasttwenty-
fiveyearsofmultiplefactors,bothindigenoustotheirhomeregionsandresultingfromactionsof
outsidepowersandexternaldevelopments.
ChiefamongthesefactorsisRussiasownevolutionfromaquietlydissenting,grumbling,but
nonethelesslargelypassivebystanderindevelopmentofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurity
architectureintoitsactiveopponentandastatecapableofprojectingpowerarounditsperiphery
andassertingitselfbeyonditsimmediateneighborhoodindefenseofitsinterests.Aseriesofevents
the2008Russian-GeorgianWar,the2014annexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,
theemergenceofsecuritythreatstotheBaltics,theeconomicstormsbuffetingRussiasneighbors
fromMoldovatoTajikistanillustrateshowmuchswayRussiacontinuestoholdoverthesecurity
andwell-beingofthepost-Sovietstates,nomatterhowmuchtheyhavetriedtoleavethatlabel
behindandbreakoutoftheRussiansphereofinfluence.
prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisfarmorelikelytobeasourceofthesametoits
neighborsthanthealternativeaninsecure,unstable,andstrugglingRussia,whichhascastalong
anddarkshadowoverthem.
UnfortunatelyforRussiasneighborsandfortheirfriends,allies,andpartners,theprospectofa
stable,prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisremote.Theoutlookforthecountryforthe
foreseeablefutureisbleakabsentmajorreforms,whereassuchreformsappearunlikely.
permeatesRussianassessmentsofthecountryseconomicconditionandprospects,itspolitical
stability,anditsmilitaryinrelationtothethreatsandchallengestoitssecurity.Foremostamong
thesesecuritythreats,intheviewofRussiandefenseexperts,isNATO,followedcloselybyfragile
statesaroundRussiasperiphery.
Thetransatlanticsecurityorderintendedasaframeworkforbringingunity,security,andstabilityto
allofEurope,includingRussia,isseenbyitssecurityestablishmentastheprincipalchallengetoits
securityandstability,intendedtoexploititsmanyvulnerabilities.ThisassessmentofWestern
motivesandactionsresultingfromthemhasenduredwithremarkableconsistencyintheRussian
nationalsecuritynarrativesincetheearliestdaysofthepost-SovietRussianstatetothepresent.Itis
thedominantviewinMoscowsnationalsecurityestablishmentwithnodissentingvoicesofany
consequence.
EquallyenduringandwidespreadamongRussianelitesandexpertsistheperceptionofRussias
deepinferiorityeconomically,militarilyvis--vistheWest.ThecombinationofRussias
insecurityanditsperceptionoftheWestshostilitytoithasbeentheprincipaldriverofRussian
securitypolicy.TherejectionofexpansionbyNATOandtheEUintocountriesapparently
genuinelyviewedbyRussianpolicymakersaswithintheirsphereofprivilegedinterests,coupled
withthefearoftheWesternsecurityandpoliticalorderapproachingRussiasborders,wasthekey
motivatorbehindthewarwithGeorgiaandtheundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.Thisunderlying
Russianworldviewisunlikelytochangeintheforeseeablefuture.
TheemergingnewsecurityorderwithNATOrethinkingitspostColdWarpostureforthefirst
timeinaquartercenturyandrebuildingitsdeterrentcapabilitiesandwithRussiabuildingupits
militarycapabilitiesalongitswesternborderisunstableandunpredictable.BothRussiaandthe
Westfeelinsecureandcompelledtodomore,raisingtherisksofanescalatorydynamicinthename
ofdefenseanddeterrence.
NothingjustifiesRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine,whichviolatedmultipleRussian
internationalcommitmentsandhastriggeredtheworstpoliticalandsecuritycrisisinEuropeina
generation.However,indevisingtheirresponsetoRussianactions,Westernpolicymakersshould
beclearaboutthedriversandmotivationsofRussianactionstheinsecurityandperceptionof
vulnerabilityasregardstheWest,ingrainedinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentfora
generation.WesternpolicymakersshouldalsobeclearthatMoscowhasneveracceptedthe
argumentthattheexpansionofWesterninstitutionswasmeantasamovetowarditratherthan
againstit.
especiallytheBalticstates,mustnotoverlookthefactthattheBalticstatesmembershipinNATO
hasmeanttoRussianmilitaryplannersthatNATO,stillseenasahostilealliance,isnowonly100
milesfromSaintPetersburg,andthatthecurrentbuildupofNATOcapabilitiesintheBalticstatesis
occurringlessthanatwo-hourdrivefromRussiassecondmostimportantcity.Western
policymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrentcapabilitiesinthe
frontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.Thebuildup
ofRussiananti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiesinCrimeaandKaliningradandthreats
todeploynuclearweaponstherearestrongindicatorsthattensionswillincreaseratherthansubside
intheseregions.158
Inthiscontext,themostdisturbingaspectofthisrenewedadversarialrelationshipisthereturnof
thespecterofnuclearwartotheEuropeancontinent.Russiaslong-standingperceivedinferiority
vis--visNATOsconventionalcapabilitiesandtheirproximitytotheRussianheartlandhavegiven
risetoamilitarystrategythatassignsacriticalroletolimitednuclearstrikesearlyinaconflictasa
meansofthwartingNATOsconventionaldominanceandendingtheconflictbeforeitresultsin
devastatinglossestotheheartland.Defenseofthehomelandhastakenonenhancedpriority
becauseafterthelossoftheouterandinnerempiresandtheexpansionofNATO,ithasbecome
theforwardareainanyfutureconflictbetweenRussiaandNATO.
Needlesstosay,anyuseofnuclearweaponswillbeadecisionmadebyRussiaspolitical
leadership,andexpertwritingsaboutearlynuclearuseshouldnotbetreatedasareliableindicator
offutureRussianactions.Nonetheless,theprominenceofnuclearweaponsinRussianstrategic
thoughtisindicativeofthecountrysperceivedvulnerabilitiesandintensityoftheadversarial
relationshipwiththeWest.
FortheUnitedStatesanditsallies,thisposesadauntingchallengehowtorespondtoRussian
actionsinamannerthatensuresacredible,robustdeterrentposturethatisstabilizinganddoesnot
feedRussiasworstperceptionsofitsownvulnerabilities.Relianceonnucleardeterrenceinthis
contextcouldproveescalatoryandreinforceRussianmilitaryplannersnuclearleanings,while
relianceonconventionalmeanswouldunderscoreRussiasperceivedvulnerabilities.
Nowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetween
RussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensity
thaninEasternEurope.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreater
intensitythaninEasternEuropethestatesoftheformerSovietUnionthathavenotjoinedthe
Euro-Atlanticpolitical,economic,andsecurityinstitutionsandareunwillingtojointheRussian-
dominatedcounterpartEurasianstructures.Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,and
Ukrainehavebecomethebattlegroundstates,toonedegreeoranotherpulledindifferent
directionsinthegeopoliticaltug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Much,ifnotmost,oftheattentionfollowingRussiasaggressionagainstUkrainehasbeenfocused
ontheBalticstatesastheNATOalliesmostexposedandvulnerabletoRussianattack.Baltic
defenseisundoubtedlyamajorchallengeforthealliance.However,Russianactionsbefore,during,
andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthatMoscowstilltakesNATOsArticle5security
guaranteeofitsmembersseriouslyandthatitisnotpreparedtotestthatguaranteedirectly.Rather,
itsactionsinformationandcyberoperations,airspaceviolations,nuclearsaberrattling,andthelike
appearaimedatcreatinganairofuncertaintyaboutthatguaranteeandunderminingmember
statesconfidenceinit.RussianleadershavedemonstratedtwicebytheiractionsinGeorgiain
2008andinUkrainesince2014thattheytakethatguaranteeseriously.Russianleaderswentto
wartwicetopreventthetwocountriesfrommovingclosertotheWestandeventuallyasthey
sawitjoiningNATO.
LackingNATOssecurityguarantee,theyremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereof
privilegedinterests.Itispreparedtouseallavailablemeans,includingmilitaryforce,tokeepthem
inthatsphere.AslongastheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,
theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
Despitethisadversarialrelationship,inmanyinstances,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillhaveno
choicebuttocooperatewithRussia,oratleastseekitsconsenttopursuetheirinterestsinEurasia.
BesidestheobviousexamplesofSyria,Afghanistan,ornucleartalkswithIran,inallofwhich
Russiahasplayedanimportantpart,futureexamplesofsuchsituationsmayinvolvecontingenciesin
EasternEurope,theSouthCaucasus,orCentralAsia.Inallofthoselocations,whetherforreasons
ofgeography,politics,oreconomics,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillneedtogetRussiaon
boardtobeabletorespondtonaturaldisasters,humanitariancrises,regionalconflicts,orother
unforeseenevents.
RussiaorNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwill
remainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurity
orderfortheforeseeablefuture.
Moreover,evenintimeswhencircumstancesforceRussiaandtheWesttocooperate,Russiais
likelytosustainitsotherdestabilizingbehaviors.Theuseofmeasuresshortofwareconomiclevers
instatesthatarevulnerable,suchasBulgaria,Cyprus,orGreeceandbribery,blackmail,infiltration
ofintelligenceoperatives,andanassortmentofothertacticswillbepartofthetoolkitdeployedby
Russianpolicymakersintimesofcrisis,aswellasinpeacetimeaspartofthenormalcontinuationof
warfarebyothermeans.
Russiasrelianceontheseformsofcompetitionshortofoutrightwarfareisfullyjustifiedintheeyes
ofthecountryssecurityestablishmentasasymmetricmeanswarrantedbytheperceivedRussia-
NATOimbalance.RussianrelianceonthemandtheintensityofitsoppositiontotheEuro-Atlantic
securityorderareunlikelytodiminishifitseconomicprospectsordomesticstabilityerode.Onthe
contrary,suchreliancemaybecomeevengreaterasotherinstrumentsinitstoolkitbecomescarcer.
AsseenfromRussia,theenvironmentinEuropeandEurasiahasleftMoscowwithoutreliable
partners,letaloneallies.NATOsexpansionhaspositionedthealliance,viewedbyRussianelitesas
adversarial,onthecountrysdoorstep,farcloserthanithaseverbeen.Theothersideofthiscoinis
thatRussiaisonNATOsdoorstepasithasneverbeenbefore.Theresultisastateofprofound
mutualinsecurity.AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussiaorNATO,this
adversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderforthe
foreseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoaddressthese
tensions.
Notes
1AEuropeWholeandFree,transcriptofremarksbyPresidentGeorgeH.W.Bushtothe
citizensinMainz,FederalRepublicofGermany,U.S.DiplomaticMissiontoGermany,May31,
1989,http://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/ga6-890531.htm.
2DmitriTrenin,TheCrisisinCrimeaCouldLeadtheWorldIntoaSecondColdWar,
Guardian,March2,2014,http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-
crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war.
4OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),HelsinkiFinalAct,August1,
1975,http://www.osce.org/mc/39501.
5OSCE,CharterofParisforaNewEurope,November21,1990,
http://www.osce.org/node/39516.
7,:
,,281992,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/31532.
8Ibid.
9YevgeniyAmbartsumov,InteresyRossiiNeZnayutGranits[Russianinterestsknowno
borders],Megapolis-Express,May6,1992.
12JanePerlez,YeltsinUnderstandsPolishBidforaRoleinNATO,NewYorkTimes,August
26,1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/26/world/yeltsin-understands-polish-bid-for-a-role-in-
nato.html.
13RogerCohen,YeltsinOpposesExpansionofNATOinEasternEurope,NewYorkTimes,
October2,1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/02/world/yeltsin-opposes-expansion-of-nato-
in-eastern-europe.html.
14Ibid.
15JamestownFoundation,ChubaisDemandsCompensationforNATOEnlargement,Monitor
3,no.84(April1997).
16SamuelHuntington,TheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrder(New
York:Simon&Schuster,1996)ZbigniewBrzezinski,TheGrandChessboard:American
PrimacyandItsGeostrategicImperatives(NewYork:BasicBooks,1997).
19Http://www.pressarchive.ru/nijegorodskie-novosti/1999/08/21/135100.html(page
discontinued).
20:,
,,172015,http://glavred.info/mir/zhurnalist-rf-o-motivacii-
putina-pomnit-sudby-miloshevicha-kaddafi-i-dedushki-pinocheta-323242.html.
21CelesteA.Wallander,RussianNationalSecurityPolicyin2000(PONARS[Programon
NewApproachestoRussianSecurity]PolicyMemo102,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,
HarvardUniversity,2000)NikolaiSokov,TheViewsoftheMilitaryLeadership,in
ModernizationofStrategicNuclearWeaponsinRussia:TheEmergingNewPosture(PONARS
WorkingPaperNo.6,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,May1998).
24UweKlumann,MatthiasSchepp,andKlausWiegrefe,NATOsEastwardExpansion:Didthe
WestBreakItsPromisetoMoscow?,SpiegelOnline,November26,2009,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-
promise-to-moscow-a-663315.html.
Expansion,ForeignAffairs,September/October2014,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-11/broken-promise.
26SergeyLavrov,Democracy,InternationalGovernance,andtheFutureWorldOrder,Russia
inGlobalAffairs,no.1(February9,2005):http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_4422.
28StevenErlanger,Putin,atNATOMeeting,CurbsCombativeRhetoric,NewYorkTimes,
April5,2008,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/world/europe/05nato.htmlTextofPutins
SpeechatNATOSummit(Bucharest,April2,2008),UnianInformationAgency,April18,2008,
http://www.unian.info/world/111033-text-of-putins-speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-
2008.html.
30ChristianLowe,GeorgiaWarShowsRussianArmyStrongbutFlawed,Reuters,August20,
2008,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-ossetia-military-idUSLK23804020080820.
31RussianMilitaryCapability,FOI(SwedishDefenceResearchAgency),
http://www.foi.se/en/Our-Knowledge/Security-policy-studies/Russia/Russian-Military-Capability/.
34DavidM.HerszenhornandEllenBarry,LargeAnti-PutinProtestSignalsGrowingResolve,
NewYorkTimes,June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/europe/anti-putin-
demonstrators-gather-in-moscow.htmlHundredsDetainedAfterMoscowAnti-PutinProtest,
Guardian,March5,2012,http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2012/mar/05/russian-election-
reaction-putin-liveRussianPresidentDmitryMedvedevAdmitsPoliticalReformNecessary,
Telegraph,December22,2011,
36KarounDemirjian,MeanwhileinRussia,PutinPassesLawAgainstProtests,Washington
Post,July22,2014,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/meanwhile-in-russia-putin-
passes-law-against-protests/MiriamElder,RussiansFearCrackdownasHundredsAreArrested
AfterAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March6,2012,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/06/russians-crackdown-anti-putin-protestKathy
LallyandKarenDeYoung,PutinAccusesClinton,U.S.ofFomentingElectionProtests,
WashingtonPost,December8,2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-
accuses-clinton-us-of-stirring-election-protests/2011/12/08/gIQA0MUDfO_story.html.
37D.GarrisonGolubock,CultureMinistryAffirmsRussiaIsNotEurope,MoscowTimes,
April7,2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/arts_n_ideas/article/culture-ministry-affirms-
russia-is-not-europe/497658.html.
38VladimirPutin,ANewIntegrationProjectforEurasia:TheFutureintheMaking,Izvestia,
October3,2011,asreprintedbythePermanentMissionoftheRussianFederationtothe
EuropeanUnion,http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-
integration-project-eurasia-future-making-izvestia-3-.
39Ibid.
CustomsUnion(PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemoNo.293,September2013)tefanFle,
StatementonthePressureExercisedbyRussiaonCountriesoftheEasternPartnership,press
release,EuropeanCommission,September11,2013.
42AlexandraMcLeesandEugeneRumer,SavingUkrainesDefenseIndustry,Carnegie
EndowmentforInternationalPeace,July30,2014,
http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/07/30/saving-ukraine-s-defense-industry.
nato.3702073.html.
46DanLamothe,RussiaIsGreatestThreattotheU.S.,SaysJointChiefsChairmanNominee
Gen.JosephDunford,WashingtonPost,July9,2015,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/09/russia-is-greatest-threat-to-the-
u-s-says-joint-chiefs-chairman-nominee-gen-joseph-dunford/.
47JulianE.Barnes,NATOsBreedloveCallsforSharperFocusonRussiaAheadofDeparture,
WallStreetJournal,May1,2016,http://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-breedlove-calls-for-
sharper-focus-on-russia-ahead-of-departure-1462115561TheodoreSchleiferandJimSciutto,
TopArmyLeader:RussiaIsMostDangerousThreatFacingU.S.,CNN,August12,2015,
49,,,,
,152016,http://www.ng.ru/courier/2016-02-15/9_friends.html.
50,,11
51,,31
52,:
,,102015,
53NATO-RussiaRelations:TheFacts,NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,lastupdated
December17,2015,http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm.
54,,,23
55RussianNationalSecurityStrategy,December2015Full-TextTranslation,InstitutoEspaol
deEstudiosEstratgicos,December31,2015,
http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-
Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf.
57,,,222015,
58,:
,(),232015,
http://svop.ru//lectorium/18389/.
59,,.,29,2015,
.
60,.
61,.
,,302015,
62,:.
63,:,
,152016,http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2016/01/15/624167-
gref-rossiya.
64,2023-:
,,212015,
,http://svop.ru.
653.,,302015,
66,:,
67:
,,222016,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3303885,
,,292016,http://kommersant.ru/doc/2975531.
68,,,182015,http://vpk-
69Ibid.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33153703AdamWithnall,RussiaThreatensDenmark
WithNuclearWeaponsifItTriestoJoinNATODefenceShield,Independent,March22,2015.
71DavidLermanandTerryAtlas,RussiasSaber-RattlingThreatensStability,U.S.Says,
Bloomberg,June25,2015,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-
denmark-with-nuclear-weapons-if-it-tries-to-join-nato-defence-shield-10125529.html.
72,,,
27/1_stairway.html.
73MaryC.Fitzgerald,MarshalOgarkovonModernWar:19771985,ProfessionalPaper
443.10,CenterforNavalAnalyses,revisedNovember1986.
74DoctorStrangeloveDoomsdayMachine,YouTubevideo,postedbyliberalartist6,July
31,2010,http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yfXgu37iyI.
76,,-,25
2015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24405.
77DavidE.Hoffman,In1983WarScare,SovietLeadershipFearedNuclearSurpriseAttack
byU.S.,WashingtonPost,October24,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-
security/in-1983-war-scare-soviet-leadership-feared-nuclear-surprise-attack-by-
us/2015/10/24/15a289b4-7904-11e5-a958-d889faf561dc_story.html.
78Forathoroughdiscussionofthis,seePavelPodvig,DidStarWarsHelpEndtheColdWar?
SovietResponsetotheSDIProgram(workingpaper,RussianNuclearForcesProject,March
17,2013).
79:,
80Ibid.
81,,-
82,
,,282012,http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2012-
09-28/11_satan.html.
83,-,282013,
http://vpk-news.ru/news/16557.
84Ibid,,.,
,,
2013,http://www.intertrends.ru/thirty-second/Volodin.pdf...
,Viperson.ru,30
2012,http://viperson.ru/wind.php?ID=652675.
85,
,
:,-,
,,202020.,http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/em092012.htm.
86,,,-
,132014,http://www.vko.ru/geopolitika/ugrozy-bezopasnosti-
rossii.
87,,,-,
88Ibid.
89RussiaHasDeliveredOver1,000AirstrikesinSyriaSinceStartofYearGeneral,TASS,
January11,2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/848749.
90,,,23
91StepanKravchenko,PutinTellsDefenseChiefstoStrengthenRussianNuclearForces,
Bloomberg,December11,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/putin-
tells-defense-chiefs-to-strengthen-russian-nuclear-forces.
92,
,,122014,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-09-12/1_oborona.html.
93,:4202,
,,222015,
94,-.,
95,:4202,
,,222015,
96PetrTopychkanov,IsRussiaAfraidofChineseandIndianMissiles?CarnegieMoscow
Center,November3,2014,http://carnegie.ru/2014/11/03/is-russia-afraid-of-chinese-and-indian-
missiles.
97,Newsru.com,
98,,
,32014,http://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2014-10-03/1_strike.html.
99,,,-
100:
101Ibid.
102,
,,152016,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2016-01-15/10_infowar.html.
103:
105:,
106,,
107AgenceFrance-Presse,VladimirPutinWarnsRussianstoAvoidGoogle:TheInternetIsa
CIASpecialProject,RawStory,April24,2014,http://www.rawstory.com/2014/04/vladimir-
putin-warns-russians-to-avoid-google-the-internet-is-a-cia-special-project/RussiaandChina
WantMoreControlOvertheInternet,Stratfor,August14,2015,
http://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/russia-and-china-want-more-control-over-internet.
108,:,
,212016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/21/ru-
63383/ixdw,,,3
2015,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2781186.
109,,122016,
110,.,
111MasterCard,VisaNowProcessRussianPaymentsThroughSanction-ProofSystem,
MoscowTimes,May28,2015,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mastercard-
visa-now-process-russian-payments-through-sanction-proof-system/522576.html.
112TASS,RussiaMayUseChinasPaymentInfrastructureInsteadofSWIFTVTBBank
Head,RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines,March11,2015,
113RussiaBrainstormsStrategytoReplaceBannedWesternDefenseImports,MoscowTimes,
August14,2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-brainstorms-strategy-to-
replace-banned-western-defense-imports/505133.html.
114PutinsDeoffshorizationBringsMajorFirmsBacktoTaxman,MoscowTimes,December
20,2013,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putins-deoffshorization-brings-major-
firms-back-to-taxman/491910.html.
116RobinNiblett,NATOMustFocusontheHybridWarsBeingWagedontheWest,
FinancialTimes,July17,2014,http://next.ft.com/content/3192c7a0-0cd2-11e4-bf1e-
00144feabdc0JohnVandiver,SACEUR:AlliesMustPrepareforRussiaHybridWar,Stars
andStripes,September4,2014,http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-must-prepare-for-
russia-hybrid-war-1.301464.
118,(:,2015),
%D0%A1.%D0%90.,
%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2
%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf,
,-,
,.,242015,
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2529147.
119,,,142014,
(II),
,132015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-03-13/1_gybrid2.html
,:,
120,:,
121,,,302015,
122Ibid.
123ShaunWalker,AlexisTsiprasinMoscowAsksEuropetoEndSanctionsAgainstRussia,
Guardian,April8,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/08/alexis-tsipras-in-
moscow-asks-europe-to-end-sanctions-against-russiaGeorgiGotev,BulgarianParliament
AlmostRejectedtheEUSanctionsAgainstRussia,EurActiv,October8,2015,
http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/bulgarian-parliament-almost-rejected-the-eu-
sanctions-against-russia/.
124IvoOliveira,NationalFrontSeeksRussianCashforElectionFight,PoliticoEurope,
February19,2016,http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-russia-crimea-putin-money-bank-
national-front-seeks-russian-cash-for-election-fight/.
125MelanieAmannetal.,TheHybridWar:RussiasPropagandaCampaignAgainstGermany,
SpiegelOnline,January30,2016,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/putin-wages-hybrid-
war-on-germany-and-west-a-1075483.htmlTheCzechsandRussia:SpyVersusPolitician,
Economist,October29,2014,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2014/10/czechs-and-russiaGregoryFeifer
andBrianWhitmore,CzechPowerGames:HowRussiaIsRebuildingInfluenceintheFormer
SovietBloc,RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty,September25,2010,
AleksTapinsh,LatviaSeesGoodandBadasRussianMoneyHaven,Reuters,October23,
2012,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-latvia-russia-banks-idUSBRE89M0S120121023.
126,,,231995,
--9785d26186b2#.byb71wmzt.
127DmitryZhdannikovandGuyFaulconbridge,KhodorkovskySaysPutinIsLeadingRussia
TowardStagnation,Collapse,Reuters,November27,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-
russia-khodorkovsky-west-idUSKBN0TF23920151126.
128Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,atacticalmovebyPutintotheprimeministersofficewould
notconstituteameaningfulbreakwithPutinism.ThisanalysisalsoassumesthatPutinremains
healthyandthattherewillbenocoupagainsthimfortheremainderofhiscurrentterm.
http://www.minchenko.ru/netcat_files/File/Politburo_2014_ENG1_pre_final1.pdfRussia:The
StrugglesWithinPartI,Stratfor,January9,2008,http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-
struggles-within-part-i.
130NeilMacFarquhar,RussiansAnxietySwellsasOilPricesCollapse,NewYorkTimes,
January22,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/world/europe/russians-anxiety-swells-as-
oil-prices-collapse.htmlTomBalmforth,SacredGround:MuscovitesProtestChurch
ConstructioninPark,RadioFreeEurope/FreeLiberty,June26,2015,
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-moscow-church-protest-torfyanka-park/27095836.html
AlexeyMalashenko,DivisionsandDefianceAmongRussiasMuslims,CarnegieMoscow
Center,November20,2015,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/11/20/divisions-and-defiance-
among-russia-s-muslims/im56MiriamElder,MoscowRiotsExposeRacismattheHeartof
RussianFootball,Guardian,December18,2010,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/spartak-moscow-race-riots-ultranationalist
AlexeyMalashenkoandAlexeyStarostin,TheRiseofNontraditionalIslamintheUrals,
CarnegieMoscowCenter,September30,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/30/rise-of-
nontraditional-islam-in-urals/iie6.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-04-25/putin-s-medieval-peace-pact-in-chechnya
MichaelSchwirtz,RussianAngerGrowsOverChechnyaSubsidies,NewYorkTimes,October
8,2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/europe/chechnyas-costs-stir-anger-as-russia-
approaches-elections.htmlEx-MinisterSaysRussiaWillCutDefenseBudgetin23Years,
TASS,January13,2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/849380RussiatoCutSocialSpendingin
2016,RT,January14,2016,http://www.rt.com/business/328915-russia-social-spending-2016/
MoscowProtestersRallyAgainstBudgetCutsinScience,Education,RT,June6,2015,
http://www.rt.com/news/265495-moscow-protest-science-education/EugeneVorotnikov,
GovernmentPlanstoCut10%OffUniversityFunding,UniversityWorldNews,February20,
2015,http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20150220085025625.
MoscowCenter,October15,2015,http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=61623
,,,
242015,http://www.rbc.ru/society/24/03/2015/551134c29a7947727d49866d
,
,,302015,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-
30/1_otredaktora.html.
133RobertBurns(AssociatedPress),NATOOfficial:RussiaNowanAdversary,YahooNews,
May1,2014,http://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-official-russia-now-adversary-150211090--
politics.html?ref=gs.
October6,2015,http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/622080/nato-leader-says-
russia-building-arc-of-steel-in-europeNaftaliBendavid,NATORampsUpResponsetoRussia,
WallStreetJournal,June24,2015,http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-ramps-up-response-to-
russia-1435174136.
135NeutralEuropeanCountries:Austria,Switzerland,Sweden,Finland,Ireland,Sloveniaand
NATO,http://nato.gov.si/eng/topic/national-security/neutral-status/neutral-countries/TheEffects
ofFinlandsPossibleNATOMembership,MinistryofForeignAffairsofFinland,April29,2016,
http://formin.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?contentid=345685TomasBertelman,JohanMolander,
andSven-OlofPeterson,APowerfulCaseforSwedishMembershipinNATO,NATOSource
(blog),AtlanticCouncil,August21,2015,http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/a-
powerful-case-for-swedish-membership-in-nato.
DefenseOne,April2,2015,http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/04/anti-accessarea-denial-
isnt-just-asia-anymore/109108/.
137AgenceFrance-Presse,BelarusPoll:EULiftsSanctionsonLukashenkoEuropesLast
Dictator,Guardian,October12,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/belarus-
poll-eu-lifts-sanctions-on-lukashenko-europes-last-dictator.
138SabraAyres,AsBelarusEconomyFalters,LukashenkoLooksWest,AlJazeeraAmerica,
January3,2016,http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2016/1/as-belarus-economy-falters-
lukashenko-looks-west.html.
139AnasMarin,TradingOffSovereignty.TheOutcomeofBelarussIntegrationWithRussiain
theSecurityandDefenceField,OrodekStudiwWschodnich,April29,2013,
http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-04-29/trading-sovereignty-
outcome-belaruss-integration-russiaChrisBiggers,RussianAirbaseinBelarusRemainsin
Limbo,Bellingcat,December27,2015,http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-
europe/2015/12/27/russian-airbase-belarus-remains-limbo/.
140YurasKarmanau(AssociatedPress),BelarusPresidentSaysHeDoesntWantRussianAir
Base,VoiceofAmerica,October6,2015,http://www.voanews.com/content/belarus-president-
says-he-does-not-want-russian-air-base/2993864.htmlChristopherHarress,ScaredbyUkraine
War,BelarusStrongmanLukashenkoMullsDitchingRussia,InternationalBusinessTimes,
January31,2015,http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-ukraine-war-belarus-strongman-lukashenko-
mulls-ditching-russia-1801070MikalaiAnishchanka,IsBelarusandRussiasBrotherlyLove
ComingtoanEnd?Guardian,May29,2015,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/belarus-russia-brotherly-love-ukraine-crisis.
141KitGillet,OppositionGroupsinMoldovaUnitetoProtestNewGovernment,NewYork
Times,January25,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/world/europe/oppositions-groups-
in-moldova-unite-to-protest-new-government.html.
February24,2016,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-02-24/why-russia-and-
turkey-fight.
147Cengizandar,PutinSupportsErdoganinTurkey,butNotinSyria,Al-Monitor,September
24,2015,http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-russia-putin-not-supports-
erdogan-in-syria.htmlNewsConferenceFollowingStateVisittoTurkey,OfficialInternet
ResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,December1,2014,
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47126.
149AndreyBiryukov,PutinSaysTurkishStabinBackCausedRussianWarplaneCrash,
Bloomberg,November24,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/putin-
says-turkish-stab-in-back-caused-russian-warplane-crash.
150RaziyeAkkocandRolandOliphant,VladimirPutinRefusestoSpeaktoTurkishPresident
OverAnkarasLackofApology,Telegraph,November27,2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12020980/Vladimir-Putin-refuses-to-
speak-to-Turkish-president-over-Ankaras-lack-of-apology.html.
151WorstinDecades,NoWaytoImproveforNowKremlinonRussia-TurkeyRelations,
RT,February9,2016,http://www.rt.com/news/331878-russia-turkey-relations-worst/.
152AzerbaijansEconomyinDireStraitsasOilPricesKeepTanking,Oilprice.com,January14,
2016,http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Azerbaijans-Economy-In-Dire-
Straits-As-Oil-Prices-Keep-Tanking.html.
153JackFarchy,BakuSeeksAlternativesasAzerbaijanOilProductionDeclines,Financial
Times,March12,2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b86cb5b4-be99-11e4-8036-00144feab7de
Azerbaijancountryreport,U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,
Protests,Guardian,January15,2016,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/azerbaijan-forced-to-cut-bread-taxes-after-
widespread-protests.
155AzerbaijanCancelsEUDelegationVisitAfterCriticismofRightsRecord,Reuters,
September11,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-azerbaijan-europe-
idUSKCN0RB1U920150911U.S.CriticizesAzerbaijanCrackdown,RadioFree
Europe/RadioLiberty,December2,2014,http://www.rferl.org/content/journalists-in-trouble-us-
criticizes-azerbaijan-crackdown/26720682.html.
156Formoreonthis,seeEugeneRumer,RichardSokolsky,andPaulStronski,U.S.Policy
TowardCentralAsia3.0,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,January25,2016.
157Ibid.
158SydneyJ.FreedbergJr.,RussiansinSyriaBuildingA2/ADBubbleOverRegion:
Breedlove,BreakingDefense,September28,2015,
http://breakingdefense.com/2015/09/russians-in-syria-building-a2ad-bubble-over-region-
breedlove/StevenPifer,RussianNukesinCrimea?ABetterWaytoRespond,Brookings
Institution,February2,2015,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/02-russia-
nuclear-weapons-crimea-better-us-response-piferStevenErlanger,NATORatchetsUpMissile
DefenseDespiteRussianCriticism,NewYorkTimes,May5,2016,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/nato-russia-poland.html.

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