Baruch

College City University of New York

Wasserman Department of Economics and Finance

Summer 2017
Statistical Analysis for Economics and Finance
ECO 4000
7/17/2017 8/17/2017

Final Exam: Thursday August 17 @ 11:00am - 1:00pm


Mon, Wed & Thurs, 11:00 1:30pm, Vert 11-155
Office Hours: Wed & Thurs, 4:40 5:40pm
Office: Vert 10-263
Erin Crockett, Ph.D.
Email: [email protected]
(NOTE: you must direct all messages to THIS email if you simply reply to a Blackboard
message/announcement I will not get your email)


Course Description

The development of quantitative tools and their application to economic and financial
models. Emphasis will be placed on multiple regression analysis and the application of
regression techniques to problems in finance and economics.

Prerequisite: STA 2000 or equivalent

Learning Goals

This is an undergraduate course in Econometrics. At its most basic level, Econometrics is
the application of statistical tools and techniques to economic data. Econometric analysis is
critical for understanding the body of academic economics literature and to practicing
economics in both business and public policy environments.

Students who successfully complete Econometrics should be comfortable with basic

statistics and probability. They should be able to use a statistical/econometric computer
package to estimate an econometric model, and be able to report the results of their work
in a nontechnical and literate manner. In particular a student who successfully completes
Econometrics will be able to estimate and interpret linear regression models and be able to
distinguish between economic and statistical importance. They should be able to critique
reported regression results in applied academic papers and interpret the results for
someone who is not trained as an economist.

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Required Resources


1) Introduction to Econometrics, 3rd Edition. James Stock and Mark Watson.
(ISBN: 9781269908290)



Notes based on this textbook will be distributed via Blackboard (I will not distribute notes
via email or provide any hard-copies). These notes are an outline of the course
fundamentals they are not a stand-alone resource for this course. In addition to
facilitating class discussion, topics that appear in these lecture notes will be heavily tested
in the exams.

The textbook is a deeper reference source that will help to provide context and further
insight regarding most of the lecture notes. If a topic is not included in the lecture notes
and/or discussed in class it will NOT appear on the exams (even if it is presented in the
textbook). However, in order to fully understand the material presented in class and
outlined in the lecture notes, you must read the chapters from the textbook.

It is expected that you will have read each chapter before it is presented in class. If you fail
to read the material, you will not be prepared to answer e*Questions or get clarity around
more difficult concepts. In order to incentivize you to read the chapters BEFORE attending
lecture I am assigning a series of multiple choice pre-lecture quizzes.

In order to fully understand the material presented in this course, you will also need to
complete problem sets based upon the material presented in class. These problem sets,
which will be graded (details provided below), are intended to provide you with much
needed practice.

Homework and pre-quiz assignments must be completed through MyEconLab an online
learning resource. The information you will need for access is provided on Blackboard (See
Course Documents) - Course ID: crockett36615

Baruch has arranged for a customized textbook at a discounted price which includes both
the etext and MyEconLab for Chapters 1-9 (free shipping for access code). You can
purchase at the following link using username eco4000 and password baruch:

http://www.mypearsonstore.com/stores/1269908294

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 2) Turning Technologies Clicker

Clickers will be used to pose e*Questions throughout the semester. This technology is
being incorporated to incentivize you to attend class and read the assigned chapters per
the tentative schedule (provided herein). We will use Turning Technologies RF LCD
clickers. The library has these clickers to loan for the semester please check them out at
the circulation desk ASAP.

http://www.baruch.cuny.edu/library/students/techloan.html

I expect you to bring your clicker to every class and participate by answering questions.
Students who do not bring clickers (which enable anonymous responses) will be expected
to answer questions individually aloud for the class. You dont wanna be that guy



3) R Statistical Software

In order to fully understand the material presented in this course, you will also need to
complete a term project using statistical software. This course will conduct statistical
analyses using R programming language. R is open-source software available for free
download at http://www.r-project.org



4) Blackboard

Grades, along with Slides and Announcements, will be posted to Blackboard - so you must
have access to Blackboard. If you are having issues with Blackboard, make sure to contact
the Baruch College IT Help Desk.

Blackboard will also serve as your FIRST STOP with any questions you forgot to ask (or
were unable to ask) during class. A series of Forums on the Discussion Board are available
for questions regarding assignments, tests, and subject matter.

These Forums also provide the opportunity for you to participate in answering questions,
and there is a dedicated space for you and I to post interesting course-related articles,
videos, etc. Note that I reserve the right to move students on the cusp of a grade UP based
upon the degree and accuracy of Forum assistance so keep an eye on Forum activity and
participate. Beyond that - under NO circumstances will I extend extra credit to any
individual student. Ever. So please take the opportunity presented.

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Tentative Grading

MyEconLab Pre-Quizzes: 10%
MyEconLab HW Assignments: 15%
Mini-Projects: 15%
Midterm Exam (Chapters 1-4): 30%
Final Exam (Cumulative): 30%


MyEconLab:

Pre-quiz and homework assignment due dates are all listed in MyEconLab. Due to the
expedited nature of a summer class you may have multiple assignments due on the same
date. Note that the 1st set of pre-quizzes and homeworks are due 7/23/17.

The pre-quizzes are all multiple choice questions you have 1 attempt for each question.
The pre-quizzes will be graded essentially as pass/fail if you score 60% or higher your
grade will be marked as 100%. If you score less than 60% - your score will be as earned.

The homeworks are a mixture of multiple choice and open-ended questions I have placed
no limit on the number of attempts you have for each question.

Every chapter we cover during the semester will have a MyEconLab pre-quiz and
homework assignment associated with it. There may be occasions when more than one
chapter will be due on the same date. There are a lot of dates so please figure out the best
way for you keep track of these assignments as NO late assignments will be accepted for
any reason. You must complete each assignment by NO LATER THAN 11:59pm on the due
date.

A total of 9 pre-quizzes and 9 homeworks will be assigned but only the top 6 of EACH will
count toward your final grade (i.e. if 9 chapters are assigned - I will drop the 3 lowest pre-
quiz grades and the 3 lowest homework grades). Thus, I have taken into account that there
can be valid reasons for missing assignments.

Any technical issues regarding MyEconLab should be directed to the website support staff
at http://247pearsoned.custhelp.com/. Make sure to send me an email as soon as you
encounter an issue immediately AFTER contacting MyEconLab.

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Mini-Projects:

You are required to complete 3 Mini-Projects this semester. You will complete these Mini-
Projects in teams of up to four students. These Mini-Projects are meant to give you hands-
on experience using EXCEL and R Open Source Software to compile datasets and conduct
statistical analyses. You must submit all code, output, and requisite discussion of results via
Blackboard. Make sure you follow all directions precisely. Late assignments will NOT be
accepted for any reason.

Details will be provided in Course Documents - deadlines are as follows:

Mini-Project #1 = 07/30/17 at 11:59pm
Mini-Project #2 = 08/13/17 at 11:59pm
Mini-Project #3 = 08/19/17 at 11:59pm


Exams:

The lecture notes highlight the most important topics we will cover in class, and these
topics will comprise the topics covered in the exams. The lecture notes should provide
significant focus topic-wise, and the relative weight I give a topic in lecture provides
additional insight into what I deem important enough to include on the exam. Lecture
attendance is HIGHLY correlated with success in this course. Please make sure you
have contact information for at least one of your classmates in the event you miss a lecture.
You are responsible for all material covered in your absence and I will not provide
guidance regarding what you missed. A tentative schedule is provided below for your
convenience.

Exams will consist of 25-50 multiple-choice questions. The questions are primarily
conceptual in nature. Accordingly, your studying needs to be more holistic than simply
memorizing terms and formulas. If you want to be successful on the exams you should do
all of the following:

(i) Read the chapter assigned BEFORE you attend lecture
(ii) Complete the pre-quiz and review results
(iii) Attend lecture and pay attention answer clicker questions - ask your own
questions
(iv) After lecture, re-read the chapter & outline important concepts, terms and
formulas
(v) Review and replicate all Excel and R files
(vi) Complete the assigned homework/projects
(vii) If a concept is still fuzzy, Google it to find a plethora of texts, blogs, and videos
that might be helpful. Also ask questions on the Blackboard Forums and
review questions posted by others.

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While doing all of the above does not guarantee you success, it will increase your likelihood
significantly. I honestly have no additional words of wisdom regarding how you should
study for this class beyond what is stated above.

Please note that NO calculators may be used during the exams. To this end, calculations
will be kept simple, and you can provide answers in either decimal or LCD fraction form.

No bathroom breaks will be allowed during exam periods. If you have a medical condition
and expect that allowances must be made, please submit a doctors note or other
documentation of your condition at the beginning of the term.

You are expected to attend all exams at their scheduled times. NO make-up exams will be
accommodated without a documented excuse that I find acceptable.



Tentative Grade Distribution:

The following is a TENTATIVE distribution of the minimum scores needed to obtain a given
grade for this course. I reserve the right to curve final course grades in a more generous
manner, as I deem appropriate.


A: 93 100
A-: 90 92
B+: 87 89
B: 83 86
B-: 80 82
C+: 77 79
C: 73 76
C-: 70 72
D+: 67 69
D: 60 66
F: 0 - 59


Grades will be rounded to the nearest ones spot and letter grades will be assigned
accordingly. I will use the simple rule of rounding (e.g. round your course grade to one
decimal point - if you have earned a 92.5 or above you will receive an A, and if you have
earned a 92.4 or below you will receive an A-). After the final distribution for grades has
been set, there will be ZERO allowances made for students on the cusp. Keep in mind that
no matter where I set the grade cutoffs, a number of students will naturally be on the cusp
make sure you dont leave points on the table that might be the difference.



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Academic Integrity

Any student caught cheating in this class will be reported immediately to the Office of
Student Conduct. NO exceptions. Cheating during an exam includes, but is not limited to,
consulting any textbooks or notes, talking to another student, a physical exchange with
another student, or making a concerted effort to view another student's exam or to share
your own. It is in your best interest to refrain from any movements or communications
that might suggest you are cheating. There are many additional ways to cheat, for example
submitting group projects or homeworks completed by another group and/or student. If it
feels wrong it probably is. See me if you have any additional questions.

Be warned - I will report any suspected academic dishonesty to the Office of the Dean of
Students and I will pursue the harshest sanctions possible.

A weak manis often much delighted with viewing himself in this false and
delusive light. He assumes the merit of every laudable action that is ascribed to
him, and pretends to that of many which nobody ever thought of ascribing to
him. He pretends to have done what he never did, to have written what
another wrote, to have invented what another discovered; and is led into all the
miserable vices of plagiarism and common lying
- Adam Smith, Theory of Moral Sentiments



Baruch Academic Integrity Policy

Academic dishonesty is unacceptable and will not be tolerated. Cheating, forgery,
plagiarism and collusion in dishonest acts undermine the colleges educational mission and
the students personal and intellectual growth. Baruch students are expected to bear
individual responsibility for their work, to learn the rules and definitions that underlie the
practice of academic integrity, and to uphold its ideals. Ignorance of the rules is not an
acceptable excuse for disobeying them. Any student who attempts to compromise or
devalue the academic process will be sanctioned.

http://www.baruch.cuny.edu/academic/academic honesty.html.

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Tentative Schedule

7/17
Introduction

Topic: Economic Questions and Data
Chapter 1

7/19
Topic: Review of Probability
Chapter 2

7/20
Topic: Review of Probability
Chapter 2






7/24
Topic: Review of Probability
Chapter 2

Topic: Review of Statistics
Chapter 3

7/26
Topic: Review of Statistics
Chapter 3

7/27
Topic: Review of Statistics
Chapter 3

Topic: Introduction to Linear Regression
Chapter 4








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7/31
Topic: Introduction to Linear Regression
Chapter 4

8/2
Topic: Linear Regression & Statistical Inference
Chapter 5

Midterm Exam (12:15 - 1:30pm)


8/3
Topic: Linear Regression & Statistical Inference
Chapter 5






8/7
Topic: Linear Regression with Multiple Regressors
Chapter 6

8/9
Topic: Linear Regression with Multiple Regressors
Chapter 6

8/10
Topic: Multiple Regression & Statistical Inference
Chapter 7

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8/14
Topic: Nonlinear Regression Functions
Chapter 8

8/16
Topic: Nonlinear Regression Functions
Chapter 8

Topic: Assessing Studies Based on Multiple Regression
Chapter 9

8/17
FINAL EXAM

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