Decision Making

Chocolate or vanilla? Wake up or sleep more? This job or that job? This girl or the ex? Life
or death? We make so many quick decisions unconsciously; others we struggle over. We
choose actions and form opinions via mental processes which are influenced by biases,
reason, emotions and memories. Some question whether we really have a free will; others
believe it is well within our power to make choices that will lead to greater well-being.
People often say that they find it hard to make decisions.

Whether we like it or not, we have to make decisions all the time, ranging from trivial issues
like what to have for dinner, right up to like changing decisions like where and what to study
and who to marry. Some people put off decision making by endlessly searching for more
information or getting other people to offer their recommendations. Others resort to decision
making by taking a vote, sticking a pin in a list or tossing a coin.

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What is decision making?

If we consider it simply, decision making is the act of choosing between two or more
courses of action. In the wider process of problem solving, decision making involves
choosing between possible solutions to a problem. Several factors influence decision
making. These factors including past experience (Jullisson, Karlsson & Garlin, 2005),
cognitive biases (Stanovich & West, 2008), belief in personal relevance (Acevedo &
Krueger, 2004), age and individual differences (Bruin, Parker & Fischoff, 2007) and an
escalation of commitment influence what decisions people make. The factors that influence
the process of decision making may impact the outcomes.
Heuristics serve as a framework in which satisfactory decisions are made quickly and with
ease (Shah & Oppenheimer, 2008). Many types of heuristics have been developed to explain
the decision making process; essentially, individuals work to reduce the effort they need to
expend in making decisions and heuristics offer individuals a general guide to follow,
thereby reducing the effort they must disburse. Together, heuristics and factors influencing
decision making are a significant aspect of critical thinking (West, Toplak & Stanovich,
2008). There is some indication that this can be taught, which benefits those learning how to
make appropriate and the best decisions in various situations (Nokes & Hacker, 2007).
Decisions also can be made through either intuitive or reasoned process, or a combination of
the two.
Intuition
Intuition is using your gut feeling about possible courses of action. Although it may seem
as a magical sense, intuition is actually a combination of past experience and your personal
values. It is worth taking your intuition into account, because is reflects your learning about
life. It is, however, not always based on reality, only your perceptions, many of which may
have started in childhood and may not be very mature as a result. It is worth examining your
gut feeling closely, especially if you have a very strong feeling against a particular course of
action, to see if you can work out why, and whether the feeling is justified.
Reasoning
Reasoning is using the facts and figures in front of you to make a decision. Reasoning has its
roots in the here-and-now, and in facts. It can however ignore emotional aspects to the
decision, and in particular, issues from the past that may affect the way that the decision is
implemented.
Intuition is a perfectly acceptable means of making a decision, although it is generally more
appropriate when the decision is of a simple nature or needs to be made quickly. More
complicated decisions tend to require a more formal, structured approach, usually involving
both intuition and reasoning. It is important to be wary of impulsive reactions to a situation.

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Effective decision making

Decisions need to be capable of being implemented, whether on a personal or organizational

level. You do, therefore, need to be committed to the decision personally, and be able to
persuade others of its merits.
What can prevent Effective Decision Making?

There are number of problems that can prevent effective decision making. These include:
1. Lack of information
If you do not have enough information, it can feel you are making a decision without
any basis. It is a must to gather necessary data before making a decision, even if the
timescale is very tight. Prioritizing information-gathering by identifying which
information will be most important will be a great help.

2. Too much information

The opposite problem, but one that is seen surprisingly often: having so much
conflicting information that it is impossible to come to a final decision. This
sometimes is called analysis paralysis, and is also used as a tactic to delay
organizational decision making, with those involved demanding ever more
information before they can decide. This can be resolved by getting everyone
together to decide what information is really important and why and by setting a
clear timescale for decision making, including an information-gathering stage.

3. Too many people

Making decisions by a committee is difficult. Everyone has their own views, and
their own values. And while it is important to know what these views are and why
and how they are important, it may be essential for one person to take responsibility
for making a decision. Sometimes, any decision is better than none.

4. Vested interests
Decision making processes often founder under the weight of vested interests. These
vested interests are often not overtly expressed, but may be a crucial blockage.
Because they are not overtly expressed, it is hard to identify them clearly and
therefore address them, but it can sometimes be possible to do so by exploring them
with someone outside the process, but in a similar position. It can also help to
explore the rational/ intuitive aspects with all stakeholders, usually with an external
facilitator to support the process.

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 5. Emotional attachments
People are often attached to the status quo. Decisions tend to involve the prospect of
change, which many people find difficult.

6. No emotional attachment
Sometimes it is difficult to make a decision because you just dont care one way or
the other. In this case, a structures decision making process can often help by
identifying some very real pros and cons of particular actions, that perhaps you
hadnt thought about before.

Many of these issues can be overcome by using a structured decision making

process. This will help to:
Reduce more complicated decisions down to simpler steps
See how decisions are arrived at and
Plan decision making to meet deadlines
Decision making techniques

Many different techniques of decision making have been developed, ranging from
simpler rules of thumb to extremely complex procedures. The method used depends
on the nature of the decision to be made and how complex it is.
Decision making techniques can be separated into two broad categories: group
decision making techniques and individual decision making techniques. Individual
decision making techniques can also be applied by a group.
Group Decision Making Techniques

Consensus decision making

This tries to avoid winners and losers. Consensus requires that a majority
approve a given course of action, but that the minority agrees to go along with the
course of action. In other words, if the minority opposes the course of action,
consensus requires that the course of action be modified to remove objectionable
features.

Voting based methods

- Majority requires support from more than 50% of the members of the
group. Thus, the bar for action is lower than with consensus.
- Plurality, where the largest block in a group decides, even if it falls short
of a majority.
- Range voting lets each member score one or more of the available
options. The option with the largest average is chosen. This method has

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 experimentally been shown to produce the lowest Bayesian regret among
common voting methods, even when voters are strategic.

Delphi method
This is structured communication technique for groups, originally
developed for collaborative forecasting but has also been used for policy
making.
Dotmocracy
This is a facilitation method that relies on the use of special forms
called Dotmocracy Sheets to allow large groups to collectively brainstorm
and recognize agreement on an unlimited number of ideas they have
authored.

Participative decision making

This occurs when an authority opens up the decision making process
to a group of people for a collaborative effort.

Decision engineering
This technique uses a visual map of the decision making process
based on system dynamics and can be automated through a decision
modeling tool, integrating big data, machine learning and expert knowledge
as appropriate.
Individual Decision Making Techniques

Decisional balance sheet

This is listing the advantages and disadvantages, benefits and costs, pros and
cons of each option, as suggested by Platos Protagoras and by Benjamin
Franklin.
Simple prioritization

The alternative is chosen with the highest probability weighted utility. This
may involve considering the opportunity cost of different alternatives.
Satisficing

The alternatives are examined only until the first acceptable one is found. The
opposite is maximizing, in which many or all alternatives are examined in
order to find the best option.
Acquiesce to a person in authority or an expert, just following orders.

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 Anti-authoritarianism

The most opposite action compared to the advice of mistrusted authorities is

taken.
Flipism

Eg: flipping a coin, cutting a deck of playing cards, and other random or
coincide methods or prayer, tarot cards, astrology, augurs, revelation or
other forms of divination, superstition or pseudoscience.
Automated decision support

This is setting up criteria for automated decisions.

Decision support systems

The decision making software is used when faced with highly complex
decisions or when considering many stakeholders, categories or other factors
that affect decisions.

Decision making steps

GOFER

In the 1980s, psychologist Leon Mann and colleagues developed a decision making
process called GOFER, which they taught to adolescents, as summarized in the book,
Teaching Decision Making to Adolescents. The process was based on extensive earlier
research conducted with psychologist Irving Janis. GOFER is an acronym for five decision
making steps:
1. Goals : survey values and objectives
2. Options : consider a wide range of alternative actions
3. Facts : search for information
4. Effects : weigh the positive and negative consequences of the options
5. Review : plan how to implement the options

Other decision making steps

In 2007, Pam Brown of Singleton Hospital in Swansea, Wales divided the decision
making process into seven steps.
1. Outline your goal and outcome
2. Gather data
3. Develop alternatives (Eg: brainstorming)

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 4. List pros and cons of each alternatives
5. Make the decision
6. Immediately take action to implement it
7. Learn from and reflect on the decision

In 2009, Professor John Pijanowski described how the Arkansas program, an ethics
curriculum at the University of Arkansas, used eight stages of moral decision making based
on the work of James Rest.
1. Establishing community: Create and nurture the relationships, norms and
procedures that will influence how problems are understood and communicated.
This stage takes place prior to and during moral dilemma.
2. Perception : recognize that a problem exists
3. Interpretation : identify competing explanations for the problem, and evaluate the
drivers behind those interpretations
4. Judgment: sift through various possible actions or responses and determine
which is more justifiable.
5. Motivation: Examine the competing commitments which may distract from a
more moral course of action and then prioritize and commit to moral values over
other personal.
6. Action : Follow through with action that supports the more justified decision
7. Reflection in action
8. Reflection on action
Decision making is an important area of research in cognitive psychology. Understanding
the process by which individuals make decisions is important to understanding the decisions
they make. There are several factors that influence decision making. Those factors are past
experiences, cognitive biases, age and individual differences, belief in personal relevance
and an escalation of commitment. Heuristics are mental short cuts that take some of the
cognitive load off decision makers. There are many kinds of heuristics, but three are
important and commonly used: representative, availability and anchoring and adjustment.
After an individual makes a decision, there are several differing outcomes, including regret
and satisfaction. Decisions that are reversible are more desired and people are willing to pay
a premium for the ability to reverse decisions; though reversibility may not lead to positive
or satisfactory outcomes. Cognitive psychologists have developed many decision making
models, which explain the process by which people effectively make decisions. One
innovative model is based on goals and planning. There is yet a lot of research to be
conducted on decision making, which will enable psychologists and educators to positively
influence the lives of many.

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Problem Solving

Everybody can benefit from having good problem solving skills as we all encounter
problems on daily basis; some of these problems are obviously more severe or complex than
others. It would be wonderful to have the ability to solve all problems efficiently and in a
timely fashion without difficulty. Unfortunately, there is no way in which all problems can
be solved, yet alone easily.
What is a problem?

The Concise Oxford Dictionary (1995) defines a problem as:

A doubtful or difficult matter requiring a solution
and
Something hard to understand or accomplish or deal with.
All problems have two features in common: goals and barriers.
Goals

Problems involve setting out to achieve some objective or desired state of affairs and can
include avoiding a situation or event. Goals can be anything that you wish to achieve, where
you want to be. If you are hungry then your goal is probably to eat something. If you are a
CEO of an organization, then your main goal may be to maximize profits and this main goal
may need to be split into numerous sub goals in order to fulfill the ultimate goal of
increasing profits.
Barriers

If there were no barriers in the way of achieving a goal, then there would be no problem.
Problem solving involves overcoming barriers or obstacles that prevent the immediate
achievement of goals. If you feel hungry then your goal is to eat. A barrier to this may be
that you have no food available you go to the supermarket and buy some food, removing
the barrier thus solving the problem. For the CEO wanting to increase profits, there may be
many more barriers preventing the goal being reached. The CEO needs to attempt to
recognize these barriers and remove them or find other ways to achieve the goals of the
organization.
Problem solving

The term problem solving is used in many disciplines, sometimes with different
perspectives, and often with different terminologies. For instance, it is a mental process in
Psychology and a computerized process in computer science. Problems can also be
classified into two different types, ill-defined and well-defined, from which appropriate
solutions are to be made. Ill-defined problems are those that do not have clear goals, solution

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paths or expected solution. Well-defined problems have specific goals, clearly defined
solution paths, and clear interpretation of the problem. The ability to understand what the
goal of the problem is and what rules could be applied represent the key to solving the
problem. Sometimes the problem requires some abstract thinking and coming up with a
creative solution.
Stages of Problem Solving

Effective problem solving usually involves working through a number of steps or stages,
such as those outlined below.
1. Problem Identification

This stage involves: detecting and recognizing that there is a problem; identifying the nature
of the problem; defining the problem. The first phase of problem solving may sound obvious
but often requires more thought and analysis. Identifying a problem can be a difficult task in
itself, is there a problem at all? What is the nature of the problem, are there in fact numerous
problems? How can the problem be best defined? by spending some time defining the
problem you will not only understand it more clearly yourself but be able to communicate its
nature to others, this leads to the second phase.
2. Structuring the problem

This stage involves: a period of observation, careful inspection, fact finding and
developing a clear picture of the problem. Following on from problem identification,
structuring the problem is all about gaining more information about the problem and
increasing the understanding. This phase is all about fact finding and analysis, building a
more comprehensive picture of both the goals and barriers. This stage may not be necessary
for very simple problems but is essential for problems of a more complex nature.
3. Looking for possible solutions

During this stage a range of possible courses of action is generated, but with little attempt to
evaluate them at this stage. From the information gathered in the first two phases of the
problem solving framework, it is now time to start thinking about possible solutions to the
identified problem. In a group situation, this stage is often carried out as a brain storming
session, letting each person in the group express their views on possible solutions or part
solutions. In organizations, different people will have different expertise in different areas
and it is useful, therefore, to hear the views of each concerned part.
4. Making a decision

This stage involves careful analysis of the different possible courses of action and then
selecting the best solution for implementation. This perhaps is the most complex part of the
problem solving process. Following on from the previous step, it is now time to look at each

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potential solution and carefully analyze it. Some solutions may not be possible, due to other
problems, like time constraints or budgets. It is important at this stage to also consider what
might happen if nothing was done to solve the problem sometimes trying to solve a
problem that leads to many more problems requires some very creative thinking and
innovative ideas.
5. Implementation

This stage involves accepting and carrying out the chosen course of action. Implementation
means acting on the chosen solution. During implementation more problems may arise
especially if identification or structuring of the original problem was not carried out fully.
6. Monitoring / seeking feedback

The last stage is about reviewing the outcomes of problem solving over a period of time,
including seeking feedback as to the success of the outcomes of the chosen solution. This
stage is concerned with checking that the process was successful. This can be achieved by
monitoring and gaining feedback from people affected by any changes that occurred. It is
good practice to keep a record of outcomes and any additional problems that occurred.

Problem Solving Strategies

Problem solving strategies are the steps that one would use to find the problems that are in
the way to getting ones own goal. Some would refer to this as the problem solving cycle
(Bransford & Stein, 1993). In this cycle, one will recognize the problem, develop a strategy
to fix the problem, organize the knowledge of the problem cycle, figure out the resources at
the users disposal, monitor ones progress, and evaluate the solution for accuracy. Even
though its called a cycle, its not necessary to do each step in order to fix the problem, in
fact those dont are usually better at problem solving. The reason it is called a cycle is that
once one is completed with a problem another usually will pop up.
Blanchard Fields (2007) looks at a problem solving from one of two facets. The first is
looking at those problems that only have one solution such as Mathematical problems or fact
based questions which are grounded in Psychometric intelligence. The other is the
problems that are socio-emotional in nature and are unpredictable with constantly changing
answers such as someones favourite food or what you should get someone for birthday.
The following techniques are usually called problem solving strategies.

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1. Abstraction
The problem is solved in a model of the system before applying it to the real
system.
2. Analogy
A solution that solves an analogous problem is used.
3. Brainstorming
In this method, a large number of solutions or ideas are suggested and they
are combined and developed until an optimum solution is found (especially
among groups of people)
4. Divide and conquer
A large, complex problem is broken down into smaller, solvable problems.
5. Hypothesis testing
A possible explanation to the problem is assumed and trying to prove or
disprove the assumption.
6. Lateral thinking
In this technique, the solutions are approached indirectly and creatively.
7. Means ends analysis
An action is chosen at each step to move closer to the goal.
8. Method of focal objects
Synthesizing of the seemingly non-matching characteristics or different
objects into something new.
9. Morphological analysis
The output and interactions of an entire system is assessed.
10. Proof
Trying to prove that the problem cannot be solved. The point where the proof
fails will be the starting point for solving it.
11. Reduction
Transformation of the problem into another problem for which solutions
exist.
12. Research
The employment of the existing ideas or adapting existing solutions to similar
problems.
13. Root cause analysis
Identification of the cause of the problem
14. Trial - and - error
The possible solutions are tested till the right one is found.

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Common barriers to problem solving

Common barriers to problem solving are mental constructs that impede our ability to solve
problems correctly. These barriers prevent people from solving problems in the most
efficient manner possible. Five of the most common processes and factors that researchers
have identified as barriers to problem solving are confirmation bias, mental set, functional
fixedness, unnecessary constraints and irrelevant information.
A person is able to find the most accurate solution to a perceived problem is by following
the scientific method. Confirmation bias can be described as a persons unconscious or
unintentional corruption of the scientific method. Mental set describes a persons inclination
to attempt to solve problems in such a way that has proved successful in previous
experiences. This was introduced by Abraham Luchins in the 1940s. Functional fixedness is
a specific form of mental set and fixation that is another way in which cognitive bias can be
seen throughout daily life. Tim German and Clark Barrett describe this barrier as the fixed
design of an object hindering the individuals ability to see it serving other functions. It
limits the ability for people to solve problems accurately by causing one to have a very
narrow thinking. Unnecessary constraints is another very common barrier that people face
while attempting to solve problems. This occurs when a person tries to solve the problem
subconsciously, places boundaries on the task at hand, which in turn forces him or her to
strain to be more innovative in their thinking. Irrelevant information is the information
presented within a problem that is unrelated or unimportant to the specific problem. Within
the specific context of the problem, irrelevant information would serve no purpose in
helping solve that problem. Often irrelevant information is harmful to the problem solving
process. It is a common barrier that many people have trouble getting through, especially if
they are not aware of it.

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Problem solving can be a very difficult task yet interesting exercise to ones mental process.
A person can always follow specific steps in solving a problem. They are as follows.

Sometimes the strategy used as the solution could be successful or it could go wrong.
Information available related to a problem plays an important role in problem solving.
People use various techniques to solve problems such as abstraction, analogy,
brainstorming, divide and conquer, reduction, research, trail-and-error and method of focal
objects. One has to face common barriers in solving a problem and his prior experiences and
the way of thinking help him to go for a better solution.

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References

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Vote: The Voters Illusion and the Belief in Personal Relevance. Political
Psychology, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9221.2004.00359.x.
Brain, C. (2000), Advanced Subsidiary, Methods and Approaches, ISBN 0-17-
490057-0
De Bruin, W.B., Parker, A.M., Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individual Differences in Adult
Decision Making Competence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, DOI:
10.1037/0022-3514.92.5.938.
Jullisson, E.A., Karlsson, N., Garling, T. (2005), Weighing the Past and the Future in
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10.1080/09541440440000159
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Nokes, J.D, Dole, J.A., & Hacker, D.J. (2007). Teaching High school Students to
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reduction Framework. Psychological Bulletin, DOI: 1.1037/0033-2909.134.2.207
Stanovich, K.E., & West, R.F. (2008). On the Relative Independence of Thinking
Biases and Cognitive Ability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, DOI:
10.1037/0022-3514.94.4.672
West, R.F, Toplak, M.E., Stanovich, K.E. (2008). Heuristics and Biases as Measures
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http://www.apa.org
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http://mindtools.com
http://psychologytoday.com
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