NASA 173108main MG Purdue 20070328
NASA 173108main MG Purdue 20070328
NASA 173108main MG Purdue 20070328
Michael D. Griffin
Administrator
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Boeing Lecture
Purdue University
28 March 2007
Most of you will have heard of Baron Charles Percy (C. P.) Snow, and will
know of his observations on the breakdown in communication between the
humanities and the sciences. Trained as a scientist, Snow served as Minister for
Technology under Prime Minister Harold Wilson, yet was more famous as an
author, with sixteen novels and eight works of non-fiction to his credit. He would
be near the top of nearly any list of scientifically literate authors, or of literarily-
talented scientists. Snow developed his theme in The Two Cultures and the
Scientific Revolution, in 1959, and explored it further in The Two Cultures and a
Second Look, in 1963. He decried the decline in standards of higher education, and
in particular what he viewed as the almost willful ignorance by the modern cultural
elite of scientific fundamentals. In a summary of his theme, Snow noted,
1
the majority of the cleverest people in the western world have about as
much insight into it as their Neolithic ancestors would have had.”
Today, I want to discuss the two cultures that, if we think about it, we find
embedded in the profession we call ‘engineering’, and how we are linking them,
and must link them, through the discipline known as ‘system engineering’, a
product of the American aerospace sector.
Let us first explore the nature of the “two cultures” in engineering. I have
always loved the view of the engineering profession captured by the great
Theodore von Karman when he said, “Scientists study the world as it is; engineers
create the world that has never been.” Less eloquently, engineers are designers;
they synthesize knowledge to produce new artifacts. Von Karman speaks to what
most of us, and certainly most laymen, would consider the essence of engineering:
engineers create things to solve problems.
But all of us who are engineers know that the engineering profession also
has a rich scientific side, the analysis of these artifacts and the prediction of their
behavior under various environmental and operational conditions. Adapting von
Karman’s observations, it may be said that engineering science is the study of that
part of the world which has been created by man.
Sadly, many students have been led to believe that engineering science is
engineering! In a curriculum of 120 or more credits leading to a bachelor’s degree
in a branch of engineering, the typical student is required to take one, or maybe
two, courses in design. Everything else, aside from general-education
requirements, focuses on the analysis, rather than the creation, of engineered
objects. Graduate education often has no design orientation at all. So, engineering
as taught really deals with only a part of engineering as it is practiced.
This trait is so pronounced that engineers who have spent their careers –
even widely-recognized careers – in design and development, focusing on the
creation of objects rather than the creation of papers for publication in refereed
2
journals, are essentially unemployable, hence unemployed, in academia. No
matter how well credentialed a practicing engineer may be, when the inevitable
search committee meets to rank the applicants for a department chair, or a tenured
position, it is a rare designer who can offer even the minimum of “academic”
qualifications expected of an applicant for the position of assistant professor.
Some universities have recognized this inherent bias and its consequences
for the training of their students, and have sought to remedy it by creating titles
such as “Professor of Practice”, or similar appellations. But it is a truism that the
longer the title, the less important the job. So this term serves only to emphasize
the point that these particular faculty members are not “real” professors, hired and
promoted on their merits in a straight-up competition among all candidates. One
wonders if this is the message we really want to send to those who will design – or
not – the world of the next generation.
But, interestingly, the development of formal methods has not altered in any
way the fundamental nature of design, which still depends, as it did in antiquity,
upon the generation of a concept for a process, technique, or device by which a
given problem might be solved. The engineering sciences have provided better,
and certainly quicker, insight for the designer into the suitability of the concept
than can be provided solely by building it and examining its performance in its
intended application. But a human being must still intuit the concept. We have no
idea how we do that. And until we do, we have little hope of developing a formal
method by which it can be accomplished.
It must be said that some progress in this area has been through research into
“genetic algorithms”, which use the tools of engineering science and mathematical
3
simulation to explore the consequences of iterative random changes to a given
design. The performance of the design is evaluated against objective criteria. If a
change results in a net improvement it is retained; otherwise, it is discarded. In this
manner, the design “evolves” to a higher state of suitability to its intended
“environment” through the pressures of artificial, rather than natural, “selection”.
Modern engineering analysis tools offer the ability to conduct what is essentially a
very large number of randomized design cycles in an acceptable period of time.
But this process does not seem, at least to me, to be much akin to the
intuitive synthesis of a human brain when it leaps almost instantly from a
perception of a problem to an idea for its solution. “Creativity”, used in this sense,
remains thus far the sole province of biological computers.
But at least for now, there remains an artistic side of engineering, and it is
fully as much an art for its practitioners as any painting, sculpture, poem, song,
dance, movie, play, culinary masterpiece, or literary work. The difference between
the cultural and engineering arts lies not so much in the manner of creation of a
given work, but in the standards by which that work is judged. In the humanistic
disciplines, human aesthetics sets the standard by which merit is assigned to a
finished product. In the end, aesthetic sensibilities vary with place and time, and
are ultimately matters of opinion. The role of opinion in evaluating a work of
engineering is, by comparison, much restricted. In engineering, more objective
methods are employed to judge the degree to which the completed work meets the
standards established for it, or fails to do so.
4
Civil engineer and author Henry Petroski has, in a series of essays and
books, explicitly noted the crucial role of failure in producing ultimately successful
designs. In Success Through Failure: The Paradox of Design, and other works,
Petroski establishes the point that new designs, or successive iterations and
refinements of a basic design, have as their essential purpose the elimination of
failure modes known to be inherent in earlier designs. He further argues, by means
of many examples, that designers must go beyond merely ensuring success; they
must strive to anticipate the ways in which a design might fail. Great designers
and successful designs incorporate, in advance, methods to mitigate such
anticipated failures.
Failure in complex systems can arise in so many more ways than in simpler
systems that the quantitative difference ultimately produces qualitatively different
behavior. It becomes unreasonable to expect, other than through the harshest of
hindsight, that a particular failure mode might have been or ought to have been
anticipated. Indeed, results from the modern study of complexity theory indicate
that complex systems can experience highly non-linear departures from normal
state-space trajectories – i.e., “failure” – without anything being “wrong”.
Among the first to study complex engineering systems was Charles Perrow,
in the landmark work Normal Accidents. Perrow argued that adding additional
processes, safety measures, and alerts to complex systems – the traditional design
approach to improving system safety – was inherently flawed, because for
complex, tightly-coupled systems and organizations, failure is inevitable.
Perrow is a sociologist, not an engineer, but his points are well taken. Those
of us who are aviators, or who are familiar with the history of aviation, can point to
numerous high-profile accidents where the crew became occupied with minor
anomalies and their warning systems, only to fly a perfectly good airplane into the
ground. Most of us can also cite analogous incidents from other fields.
5
Yet, we have evolved complex systems for good reasons, and we will clearly
continue to do so. The modern air transport aircraft is an incredibly complex
device, and the system within which such aircraft operate is far more so. But in the
last five decades this system has revolutionized world society, culture, and
economics. It will not be shut down merely because it cannot be made perfectly
reliable. Nor will we do so with any of the other complex appurtenances of
modern society which did not exist a century ago, but which are now deemed
essential. So, if we are not to eschew the use of complex systems, how do we
make them as reliable as possible?
6
System engineering is a holistic, integrative discipline, wherein the
contributions of structural engineers, electrical engineers, mechanism designers,
power engineers, and many, many more disciplines are weighted and considered
and balanced, one against another, to produce a coherent whole that is not
dominated by the view from the perspective of a single discipline. System
engineering is about tradeoffs and compromises, about generalists rather than
specialists.
Complex systems usually come to grief, when they do, not because they fail
to accomplish their nominal purpose. While exceptions certainly exist, it remains
true that almost all systems which proceed past the preliminary design phase will,
in fact, accomplish the tasks for which they were explicitly designed. Complex
systems typically fail because of the unintended consequences of their design, the
things they do that were not intended to be done. The Second Law of
Thermodynamics is sufficient to guarantee that most of these things will be
harmful! I like to think of system engineering as being fundamentally concerned
with minimizing, in a complex artifact, unintended interactions between elements
desired to be separate. Essentially, this addresses Perrow’s concerns about tightly
coupled systems. System engineering seeks to assure that elements of a complex
artifact are coupled only as intended.
7
System engineering is the link which has evolved between the art and
science of engineering. The system engineer designs little or nothing of the
finished product; rather, he seeks a balanced design in the face of opposing
interests and interlocking constraints. The system engineer is not an analyst;
rather, he focuses analytical resources upon those assessments deemed to be
particularly important, from among the universe of possible analyses which might
be performed, but whose completion would not necessarily best inform the final
design. There is an art to knowing where to probe and what to pass by, and every
system engineer knows it.
I will be frank. Educators, and I include myself, for I have spent many years
as an adjunct professor at various institutions, are far less certain how to teach
“generalship” than we are of how to teach the laws of thermodynamics. And yet it
8
is clear that an understanding of the broad issues, the big picture, is so much more
influential in determining the ultimate success or failure of an enterprise than is the
mastery of any given technical detail. The understanding of the organizational and
technical interactions in our systems, emphatically including the human beings
who are a part of them, is the present-day frontier of both engineering education
and practice.