Cold Chain Top Countries Report
Cold Chain Top Countries Report
Cold Chain Top Countries Report
May 2016
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Industry & Analysis (I&A)
Industry & Analysis (I&A) staff of industry, trade and economic analysts
devise and implement international trade, investment, and export
promotion strategies that strengthen the global competitiveness of U.S.
industries. These initiatives unlock export, and investment opportunities
for U.S. businesses by combining in-depth quantitative and qualitative
analysis with ITAs industry relationships.
John Miller, I&As Industry Specialist for Cold Chain and Distribution Services,
served as the lead author for this report. Thank you to all cold chain industry
representatives who have provided insight including: ITAs Strategic Partners of
The Global Cold Chain Alliance, APICS, FedEx, UPS, and the International Air
Transport Association.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...............................................................................................................................3
Appendices
Appendix 1: Methodology ....................................................................................................... 63
Appendix 2: Scorecards ........................................................................................................... 65
Appendix 3: Citations............................................................................................................... 68
The report also comes at a time when an increasing understanding of the global value chains that are the key
drivers for the flow of trade in both goods and services is impacting the way that industries and government view
trade in terms of investment and policy development. As a business function of distribution services, cold chain
services are force multipliers that create a world of opportunities for related trade and exports of goods. A cold
chain can most readily be defined as a series of warehousing and distribution activities that is designed to ensure
ideal storage and transportation conditions for temperature-sensitive products. Cold chain services also have the
added benefit of improving quality of life for billions of people around the world and are in high demand,
especially in less developed economies that suffer from malnutrition, high rates of food spoilage and chronic
disease.
This years report uses World Economic Forum research as well as industry insight to assess 20 international
markets for cold chain expansion. The case studies section of the report covers 11 countries that collectively
represent more than $450 billion out of more than $1.8 trillion in total sales by U.S. majority owned foreign
affiliates in distribution services. The countries also represent more than $800 billion in total U.S. goods and
services exports. The expansion of foreign affiliates and their corresponding sales contributes to U.S. companies
bottom lines and does not detract from U.S. jobs but rather increases the need for U.S. workforce to support
business operations here in the United States.
Ultimately, the report finds that cold chains grow in support of distribution services operation, primarily in the
retail and franchise sectors. In developing markets, cold chains provide opportunities for small and medium-sized
farmers and businesses to enter the supply chains of international markets, exporting their temperature-sensitive
products to retailers around the world. In consumer markets, cold chains provide access to products previously
unavailable locally, raising the quality of life through fresher, safer food, pharmaceuticals and biologics while
increasing opportunities for retail and franchise sales growth.
The biggest barriers to cold chain growth remain government protectionist measures and non-tariff barriers, often
in related distribution services industries. The difficulties and delays of clearing customs or transporting products
across borders is also a major impediment for services.
Through policy development, commercial dialogues, participation in trade negotiations and managing Industry
Advisory Committees, including the Advisory Committee on Supply Chain Competitiveness, the International Trade
Administration (ITA) has been focused on reducing these barriers to trade and will continue to work with countries
around the world to provide opportunities for distribution service providers to compete on a level playing field.
Figure 1: Projected Cold Chain Export Markets (Bold indicates case studies included in report)
Figure 2: Refrigerated CAGR Fresh foods, like fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry and
Warehouse Capacity 2008-2014 dairy, require an uninterrupted cold chain due to their
Growth by Country (Percent)
perishable nature. By controlling parameters of
India 43
temperature, humidity and atmospheric composition,
China 35
Mexico 27
along with utilizing proper handling procedures, cold
Brazil 26 chain service providers can increase the product life of
United States 9 fresh foods for days, weeks or even months. These
Global Cold Chain Alliance services allow fresh products to hold their value longer,
increasing their transportability and providing
opportunities that expand their market reach.
Cold chain services that support perishable food
distribution globally are estimated to be valued at Cold chain systems for processed foods have a slightly
7
nearly $250 billion. Experts also estimate that cold different flow. The activities involved in processing are
chain logistics spending in support of biopharma usually transformative in nature and involve adding
industry is more than $10 billion and is expected to ingredients or preservatives or altering the natural
grow to $13 billion by 2019. Asia alone contributes to characteristics of the food product. These alterations
8
$1.2 billion in growth. The compound annual growth can extend the life of the resulting product by months
Requirements for cold chain facilities vary based on the Depending on the type of product and its ultimate
size, type and amount of product, along with the destination, a product may proceed to one of several
particular requirements of the customer. Fruits and types of facilities. A cool dry storage facility protects
vegetables often require cool facilities and are stored the product and keeps it from high temperature
around 55F. Most dairy products require temperatures fluctuations and humidity. A cold storage facility may
just above freezing around 35F. Meat and poultry be appropriate for products that require a lower
products are typically stored just below freezing at temperature to remain fresh. This reduces the chance
approximately 28F. Ice cream and other frozen for bacterial introduction. A super cold facility is
products may require deep freezing at temperatures designed for products that may need to be kept frozen.
that can range from -10F to -150F. Sometimes these temperatures may be 100 or more
Figure 4:
The markets opened through efficient internationally Cold chains in the United States are designed to meet
developed cold chain systems allow U.S. franchisors high demands from businesses, consumers and
and retailers to continue to expand the services trade regulators. Businesses require products that meet the
surplus that the United States has held for more than level of quality of their business structure; consumers
four decades. Services exports, however, can be demand the highest quality available based on the
notoriously difficult to quantify. The Bureau of price they are willing to pay; and regulators, such as the
Economic Analysis (BEA), the U.S. government entity U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and U.S. Food
responsible for recording trade data, defines cross and Drug Administration (FDA), set requirements and
border trade as occurring when suppliers in one minimum safety standards for the handling of many
country provide goods or services to consumers in consumer foods and temperature-sensitive products.
another country, with people, information or money These market demands have resulted in a competitive
crossing national borders. Therefore, sales of services
In developing, lower income markets, the most likely In developed, higher income economies, competition
initial opportunities include design and engineering of from numerous cold chain service providers can pose a
warehouses, the operation of third party logistics and challenge. The most likely opportunities for U.S. cold
technologies that can efficiently overcome shortfalls in chain providers, therefore, will be in the consolidation
infrastructure development, for example: developing of existing fragmented systems into higher efficiency
economies with unreliable electricity may require systems that provide increased reliability and higher
unique solutions or alternative energy sources to quality options that allow retailers to cater to particular
properly maintain warehouse temperature; a lack of consumer tastes. New technologies that address
adequate roads may also mean new transportation particular aspects of each market, such as cultural
options or versatile refrigerated containers need to be preferences and omnichannel retail shopping, may also
developed. be a significant long-term growth opportunity.
The following pages include country case studies that summarize export opportunities in selected
markets. The overviews outline ITAs analysis of the U.S. export potential in each market and
represent a range of countries to illustrate a variety of points. The markets included in the case
studies are representative of certain regions and are not listed in any priority ranking order.
Australias established cold chain may benefit from the ratification Overall Rank High-Income
of TPP, as agriculture and other products exported from the Category
Ranking
country to TPP partners may see significant increases. The current
market may also see improvements in efficiency through
9 8
consolidation.
Resources:
With a GDP of $2.3 trillion, Brazil is the seventh largest Figure 13:
economy in the world and is the United States ninth Competitiveness Index Score
largest export market for goods. Exports to Brazil Government/Regulatory 3.0
account for 3 percent of total U.S. exports of goods Labor Force 3.6
and services or around $71 billion. U.S. majority Infrastructure 4.2
owned foreign affiliate sales in Brazil were $207 billion Demand/Business Factors 5.0
Industry Interest 4.0
in 2013, and while retail sales numbers are not World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
available, distribution services contributed more than Economic Statistics
52
$18 billion. Population 208 Million
3
Cold Storage Capacity 16.0 M/m
More than half of Brazils population is considered Pharmaceutical Sales $26.3 Billion
Food Spending $200 Billion
middle class, earning between $11,500 and $29,000
Food Spending per Capita $963
per year. Unemployment has been increasing, and Agribusiness Market $222 Billion
inflation has recently been as high as 8.5 percent. Agriculture Imports $2.5 Billion
Agriculture Exports $7.3 Billion
The Brazilian retail market is heavily saturated. BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
Logistics in Brazil are some of the most costly in the The ITA is working with the Brazilian government
world. Distribution makes up about 32 percent of through the U.S Brazil Commercial Dialogue to map
logistics costs, suggesting that there are considerable the cold chain and identify trade bottlenecks and
opportunities for 3PLs and service providers that can barriers. The identification of these barriers will help
implement improvements in warehousing, inventory guide policy efforts to reduce and remove these
management and transportation management. impediments to trade for distribution services
industries.
While rail is considered to be about 30 percent
cheaper than road transportation, rail infrastructure is
With a large, rapidly growing demand and well-established Overall Rank Upper-Middle
Category
infrastructure in large urban populations, China is a top market
Ranking
for cold chain development.
10 2
With a GDP of more than $11 trillion, China is the Figure 15:
largest economy in our Top Market Report. Exports of Competitiveness Index Score
goods and services to China reached $167.2 billion in Government/Regulatory 4.1
2014, a growth of 4.4 percent, and accounted for 7.1 Labor Force 4.4
percent of all U.S. exports. U.S. majority owned Infrastructure 4.7
Demand/Business Factors 4.8
foreign affiliate sales in China were $260 billion, and
Industry Interest 5.0
distribution services accounted for more than $40 World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
60
billion in 2013. Economic Statistics
Population 1.376 Billion
3
The population of China is considered upper middle Cold Storage Capacity 76 M/m
income, with a per capita income of about $13,170 Pharmaceutical Sales $108 Billion
Food Spending $1.2 Trillion
(PPP) per year. Unemployment has held steady at 4.7 Food Spending per Capita $875
percent, and inflation was less than 1 percent in Agribusiness Market $1.36 Trillion
61
2014. Agriculture Imports $65.7 Billion
Agriculture Exports $10.5 Billion
China is currently undergoing a rapid transition from a BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
According to the World Economic Forum, the small- Sixty percent of freight moves on a road network with
scale and fragmented retail market that the less than 5 percent of those roads national highways.
government protects in India prevents the scale of The average truck speed across the country is around 13
capital investment necessary to create a modern M.P.H. Often, retail stores may not be able to meet
82
logistics system. A refrigerated transportation study demands due to delays in shipment caused by
performed by Ernst & Young for the Indian Ministry of transportation infrastructure.
Agricultures National Centre for Cold Chain
Development (NCCD) recommended the government A low level of organized 3PLs means that as much as 75
promote more organized retailing to encourage percent of truck owners have a fleet of less than 5
83
investment in the cold chain sector. vehicles. Most of these trucks are more poorly
maintained and are more than a decade old.
Further, the WTO reported in 2015 that Indias trade
policy is used to regulate domestic supply and policies The Indian government has plans to upgrade the 13
frequently change, causing disruptions and major ports to accommodate the nearly 200 percent
unpredictability for business. Import and export taxes increase in cargo expected over the next seven years.
and duties, as well as minimum export prices, are used Currently, the ports suffer from outdated and
ad hoc and prevent significant long-term strategic insufficient cargo handling equipment and terminals.
84
development across industries. This anticipated investment may provide opportunities
for U.S. companies to develop cold chain facilities that
In June 2015, the WTO ruled that the restrictions India can help India meet current and future demand.
put in place on U.S. agriculture products, including
poultry, eggs and live pigs, citing concerns about avian Despite having the fourth largest rail system in the
influenza violated the WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary world, most shippers avoid rail. The national rail system
(SPS) Agreement. Afterward, according to the U.S. is underinvested, but the Indian government is
International Trade Commission, the Indian Ministry of developing a dedicated freight corridor plan that will
Commerce examined ways to scientifically justify span 2,000 miles across the eastern and western sides
85
protecting Indias poultry farmers from U.S. imports. of the country. In February 2016, the Indian
government announced that it would budget $17.6
th
India ranked 54 out of 160 countries in World Banks billion on rail development for the fiscal year starting in
2014 Logistics Performance Index (LPI). The LPI is an April, a 21 percent increase from the previous year.
indicator of key dimensions of a countrys logistics
performance including Customs, Infrastructure, Opportunities may exist for cold chain operators that
International Shipments, Competence, Tracking and can create or utilize technologies that reduce
Tracing, and Timeliness. Overall, the country has dependence on the electricity grid. Energy
remained virtually unchanged in almost every category infrastructure is extremely lacking and serves as a huge
of the Index since 2007, though the category of Logistics impediment to integrating cold chain capabilities across
86
Competence has significantly declined. the supply chain.
th
India's current tax scheme has encouraged logistics The World Economic Forum ranked India 98 out of 140
88
companies to create small stocking facilities located in quality of electricity supply . Energy can contribute
throughout India's 30 states. The complexities of to 30 percent or more of cold chain operations costs in
taxation and the subsidization rules of India's national India, and many farmers do not have access to
government prevent large logistics companies from electricity. As recently as 2012, India had a multi-day
creating economies of scale through efficient hub-and- blackout, which affected over 620 million people.
spoke type distribution systems. Companies involved with cold storage must anticipate
nd
Indias quality of transport infrastructure is ranked 32 and adapt to the infrastructure by investing in costly
out of 140 countries in the World Economic Forum generators or risk losing their products in the event of
electricity failure.
Industrys Take:
India is a huge market that is being eyed, from a distance,
by major logistics players. Equipment suppliers are already
there in full force; however, they are facing issues of price
sensitivity. Many customers make major purchasing
decisions based solely on price as opposed to quality.
Finally, the vast majority of consumers in India are still not
demanding the use of cold chain.
Richard Tracy, Global Cold Chain Alliance
th
With a GDP of nearly $862 billion, Indonesia is the 16 Figure 19:
largest economy in the world. Goods and services Competitiveness Index Score
exports to Indonesia accounted for $10.7 billion in Government/Regulatory 4.0
2015. U.S. majority owned foreign affiliate sales in Labor Force 4.2
Indonesia were $31 billion in 2013, and while retail Infrastructure 4.4
Demand 4.5
sales are not available, distribution services
89 Industry Interest 3.0
contributed more than $2 billion. World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
Economic Statistics
The population of Indonesia is considered lower Population 258 Million
3
middle income, with a per capita income of about Cold Storage Capacity 12.3 M/m
$10,190 (PPP) per year. Unemployment has been Pharmaceutical Sales $5.8 Billion
Food Spending $179 Billion
stable around 6.2 percent, and inflation was 6.4
90 Food Spending per Capita $697
percent in 2014. Household spending per capita is Agribusiness Market $141 Billion
$6,810 and is expected to reach $9,098 by 2020 Agriculture Imports $4.7 Billion
91
(PPP). Agriculture Exports $11.4 Billion
BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
Indonesias quality of transport infrastructure is Halal logistics, which is prevalent in Malaysia (see
th
ranked 39 out of 140 countries in the World Malaysia case study), is becoming increasingly
Economic Forum Global Competitiveness index. Every prevalent in Indonesia and is a trend to monitor. U.S.
firms that are unaware of the certification
Industrys Take:
Indonesia is on the list of low index cold storage markets.
There are abundant natural resources; however, the
infrastructure is too poor to exploit them efficiently. Another
challenge is how to service a growing population that is
spread over an island nation.
Richard Tracy, Global Cold Chain Alliance
Japans cold chain system is well-established. Cold chain Overall Rank High-Income
suppliers will be watching for new opportunities that may Category
Ranking
develop through the ratification of TPP and resulting
expected increases in international trade.
5 5
Japan has an estimated GDP of $4.6 trillion, making it more than 250,000 stores in the franchise industry
the third largest economy in the world. Exports of amounted to over $208 billion. The largest category of
goods and services from the U.S. amounted to $114.7 franchise establishments was in convenience stores at
billion in 2015. U.S. majority owned foreign affiliate 41 percent followed by food service chains at 17.2
sales in Japan were $235.9 billion, and distribution percent.
services accounted for more than $65 billion in
100
2013.
Figure 21:
The population of Japan is considered high income, Competitiveness Index Score
Government/Regulatory 5.1
with a per capita income of about $37,920 (PPP) per Labor Force 4.7
year. Unemployment has steadily decreased for Infrastructure 6.0
several years to 3.7 percent in 2014, and inflation was Demand 5.6
101
1.6 percent in 2014 Industry Interest 4.0
World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
Industrys Take:
Japan is a mature market with little to no growth in the cold
chain industry. It has been dominated by a number of
domestic players for years, and since the economy is flat,
this market is not high on the list of countries in which to
invest.
Global Cold Chain Alliance Industry Member
Kenya and the other members of the East African Community Overall Rank Lower-
(Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi) are making progress in Middle
improving their regulatory environment and may have great long Category
Ranking
term potential. The massive amount of infrastructure 19
investments necessary, combined with the risk of government 4
change and the limited retail market size, however, currently put
Kenya in the lower half of our top market survey.
The following case study highlights and is primarily sourced from a Kenya Cold Chain Assessment performed by
the Global Cold Chain Alliance in partnership with the International Trade Administration. The full assessment
report is available at: http://www.gcca.org/resources/publications/white-papers-reports/keeping-it-cool-
assessing-cold-chain-in-kenya/
Kenya has an estimated GDP of $61 billion, and from the thousands of small farms spread across the
exports of goods from the U.S. amounted to $936 country, which currently have virtually no access to
million in 2015. U.S. majority owned foreign affiliate global trade markets.
sales in Kenya were $966 million in 2013, an increase
of 33 percent from 2012, though distribution services Pharmaceutical sales in Kenya are estimated at $797
109
data is not available for the country. million in 2015 and are anticipated to increase at a
compound annual growth of 9.5 percent to reach
111
The population of Kenya is considered lower middle around $1.2 billion by 2020.
income, with a per capita income of about $2,940
(PPP) per year. Unemployment has held steady at 9.2 Figure 23:
percent, but it should be noted that some unofficial Competitiveness Index Score
estimates range as high as 40 percent. Inflation was Government/Regulatory 3.8
110
7.5 percent in 2014. Labor Force 4.4
Infrastructure 3.8
Food spending is expected to grow 10 percent Demand 4.3
Industry Interest 3.0
annually to reach $17.6 billion by 2020, boosted by World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
rising incomes and awareness of the health benefits of Economic Statistics
fresh foods. Population 204 Million
Cold Storage Capacity N/A
Franchising in Kenya is most common in the hospitality Pharmaceutical Sales $742 Million
Food Spending $10.9 Billion
sector with about a dozen world-renowned firms.
Food Spending per Capita $236
Food and beverage franchises have seen the most Agribusiness Market $8.9 Billion
growth despite the challenges in supply chains. Agriculture Imports $234 Million
Agriculture Exports $643 Million
Internet use in Kenya is low by many measures with BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
3PLs in Kenya are virtually non-existent, forcing most Unemployment in Kenya ranges from 10 to 20
cold chains in Kenya to be vertically integrated and percent, and the majority of Kenyas workforce is
designed to meet the specific needs of individual engaged in the informal economy. In fact, USAID
businesses. These businesses invest in vertical estimates that a little more than 10 percent of
integration, primarily to export commodities; as a employed youth are engaged in the formal economy.
result, food-handling practices for exported products
follow international best practices, including Hazard Most Kenyans make purchases through local markets
Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) and BRC or directly from farmers. These markets tend to sell
Resources:
Industrys Take:
A recent study of the cold chain sector in Kenya showed the
need is great, but consumer demand currently does not
allow for sustainable growth in the near future. The
challenge is how to match the domestic growth in the cold
chain to complement what is being done for exports.
Global Cold Chain Alliance Industry Member
Malaysias Competitiveness Index puts the country near the Overall Rank Upper-Middle
top in all categories. Concerns over transparency and Category
protectionist measures may cast a shadow on its future Ranking
growth potential. 8 1
Malaysia has an estimated GDP of $338 billion. Exports long-term, as the emergence of online shopping for
of goods from the U.S. amounted to $13 billion, but groceries should create additional demand for
U.S. services export data is unavailable. U.S. majority refrigerated trucks and warehouses near major
owned foreign affiliate sales in Malaysia were $51.1 population centers.
billion, and distribution services accounted for more
than $4.6 billion in 2013, though retail data is Figure 25:
119
unavailable. All trade figures are down from their Competitiveness Index Score
th
peak in 2011, but Malaysia is the United States 19 Government/Regulatory 5.2
largest trading partner. Labor Force 5.4
Infrastructure 5.5
Demand 5.3
The population of Malaysia is considered upper middle Industry Interest 3.0
income, with a per capita income of about $24,770 World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
(PPP) per year. Unemployment has dropped to 2 Economic Statistics
120
percent, and inflation was 3.1 percent in 2014. Population 30.3 Million
Cold Storage Capacity N/A
The organized food retail sector accounts for less than Pharmaceutical Sales $2 Billion
Food Spending $29.5 Billion
half of grocery sales in Malaysia. Food spending is Food Spending per Capita $974
expected to grow more than 8 percent annually to Agribusiness Market $28 Billion
121
reach $45.6 billion by 2020, boosted by rising Agriculture Imports $1.3 Billion
incomes and awareness of the health benefits of fresh Agriculture Exports $4.4 Billion
foods. BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
Figure 26: World Bank Doing Business Ranking The additional requirements necessary for
certification can often increase the cost of production
Country Ranking GDP Per Capita
(2016) (PPP, 2014) for U.S. companies and producers. While many
consumers support halal logistics it requires the entire
Malaysia 18 $13,956
supply chain to adhere to certain principles; if one
Russia 51 $25,635 partner in a supply chain does not adhere to these
China 84 $13,206 principles, the product cannot be labeled as halal. In
Brazil 116 $15,838
the case of Malaysia, a partner in the supply chain that
has been certified halal by a different authority (such
India 130 $5,701 as Saudi Arabia) will not automatically receive
certification by Malaysias halal standards. Several U.S.
nd
Malaysia is ranked 52 out of 124 countries in the producers that have been approved by Saudi halal
World Economic Forums Human Capital index 2015. authorities have not been approved by Malaysia.
The population has a median age of 26 and a labor
participation rate of 57.5 percent. More than 13 Malaysias quality of transport infrastructure is ranked
th
percent of the population is tertiary educated, and the 10 out of 140 countries in the World Economic
country is ranked fourth in ease of finding skilled Forum Global Competitiveness index. With the
124
employees. exception of air transport, all categories of
126
transportation have improved since 2011. It is
Malaysia has a high potential for cold chain sector worth noting that the Government of Malaysia has
growth in the ASEAN region. Quality products and the been a strong supporter of port development. The
potential for trade within the ASEAN region make Malaysian government has been proactive in
Malaysia an attractive market for U.S. service promoting infrastructure, and opportunity exists for
providers. Cold chain logistics companies currently in cold chain services to conduct business in this region.
the market include CCN, IGLO, Kotena National,
Integrated Cold Chain, MAFC, Haisan, MISC, IMC, Researchers have found that lack of regulatory forms
Gerimis, Gold Coin, Vesco, NCB, Bifrost, LTS and to facilitate the logistics industry and lack of
Actionpack. The expected annual increases of 7 information sharing with regard to expansion and
percent in consumer spending and a growing middle development of the logistics industry are constraints
127
class over the next several years represent a good for industry. Companies intending to undertake cold
opportunity for retail growth and imports from the chain logistics and related services are required to:
United States. Incorporate a company under the Companies
Act of 1965
More than 60 percent of Malaysias population is Obtain the appropriate licenses, e.g., for
Muslim, and Malaysia is a forerunner in the halal food operating public/private bonded warehouses
production industry. This can represent an and commercial vehicles and haulage (Class A
opportunity for refrigerated logistics services. Given license).
the demand for halal food products in Malaysia, cold
chain logistics providers interested in entering this th
Malaysia ranked 25 out of 160 countries in the World
market should consider getting certified to appeal to Banks 2014 Logistics Performance Index (LPI). The LPI
all consumer segments. is an indicator of key dimensions of a countrys
logistics performance, including Customs,
The Malaysian government expects the country to Infrastructure, International Shipments, Competence,
become a global hub for halal products with its Tracking and Tracing, and Timeliness. Overall, the
extensive product lines, halal distribution centers and country has remained virtually unchanged in almost
government promoted certification process for halal every category of the Index from 2007, though the
125
production, processing and distribution.
In late 2015, Malaysia launched a Logistics Masterplan Malaysia is a party to the recently negotiated Trans-
outlining the following: Pacific Partnership (TPP). Upon ratification, U.S.
Strengthening the institutional and regulatory businesses may find increased potential for growth
framework; and more opportunities to participate in trade. The
Improving trade facilitation mechanisms; agreement will eliminate tariffs, lower service barriers
Developing infrastructure and freight and increase transparency while also increasing
demand; competitiveness by instituting stronger intellectual
Strengthening technological and human property rights protection and establishing
resource development; and enforceable labor and environmental obligations.
Internationalization of logistics services.
The objective of the masterplan is to strengthen the The TPP will promote fairness by ensuring non-
position of Malaysia as the preferred logistics gateway discriminatory treatment of U.S. goods and services,
to Asia. establishing rules for fair competition with State-
owned enterprises and providing the same rights and
Malaysia currently has labor regulations that can be protections for U.S. investors that foreign investors
very challenging to comply with, especially for SMEs. currently enjoy in the United States while protecting
The regulations make it difficult to hire expatriate the inherent right of governments to regulate.
Resources:
Industrys Take:
Malaysia is a very attractive market because of economic
growth, quality of products and the potential for trade in the
ASEAN region. There is a need to gather more specific
information about the cold chain industry that is currently
lacking.
Richard Tracy, Global Cold Chain Alliance
Mexicos national economic growth rate and proximity to the Overall Rank Upper-Middle
United States make it a key market for export growth. Category
Improvement in government regulation and streamlined Ranking
border and customs programs would accelerate cold chain 13 3
growth in Mexico.
Mexico has an estimated GDP of $1.3 trillion. Exports ranks at the bottom of OECD countries. Over 50
of goods and services from the U.S. amounted to $270 percent of the countrys 51.2 million Internet users are
billion, or 11.6 percent of all U.S. exports. U.S. majority in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. There is a
owned foreign affiliate sales in Mexico were $235 cultural distrust of the largely ineffective postal and
billion, and distribution services accounted for more online payment systems; in fact, only 64 percent of e-
129
than $70 billion in 2013. commerce payments are made by credit card. Despite
these issues, e-commerce has grown by 42 percent to
The population of Mexico is considered upper middle reach $9.2 billion in 2013.
class, with a per capita income of about $16,640 (PPP)
per year. Unemployment has held steady at 4.9 Figure 27:
130
percent, and inflation was 4.7 percent in 2014. Competitiveness Index Score
Government/Regulatory 3.4
Mexico has a great capacity for growth in the cold Labor Force 4.0
chain industry in the near future. Retailers and Infrastructure 4.4
franchisors in the food sector are focused on Demand/Business Factors 4.5
Industry Interest 5.0
continuing the nearly 7 percent annual growth in food World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
sales that they have experienced for several years. Economic Statistics
Population 127 Million
While market share of modern supermarkets is low at Cold Storage Capacity 5.0 M/m
3
3.4 percent, Mexico has seen a growth rate of 54 Pharmaceutical Sales $11.2 Billion
percent from 2008 to 2013 and per-capita sales Food Spending $58.5 Billion
131 Food Spending per Capita $460
growth of 4.6 percent. Mexican demand for value- Agribusiness Market $52 Billion
added food imports has grown rapidly in recent years, Agriculture Imports $4.8 Billion
as the introduction of supermarket food distribution Agriculture Exports $1.4 Billion
132
systems has become more prominent. BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
Figure 28: World Bank Doing Business Ranking Infrastructure is one area that has historically limited
Country Ranking GDP Per Capita Mexican cold chain capabilities. While Mexico has a
(2016) (PPP, 2014) modern highway system that connects main industrial
Mexico 38 $17,107 areas, transportation infrastructure beyond major
cities is often lacking. Mexicos quality of transport
Russia 51 $25,635 th
infrastructure is ranked 36 out of 140 countries in
China 84 $13,206 the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness
Brazil 116 $15,838 index, with Quality of Railroad Infrastructure the
137
lowest scoring category.
India 130 $5,701
Industrys Take:
Mexico is experiencing a high growth rate with regard to
exports and domestic consumers purchasing ready-to-eat
meals from the organized retail sector. There is one major 3PL
in Mexico; more and more players, however, are entering the
market. It will only be a matter of time before the global
players make their move.
Richard Tracy, Global Cold Chain Alliance
Singapore has an estimated GDP of $308 billion, and and freeze it themselves to consume later. Therefore,
U.S. exports to Singapore amounted to nearly $43 significant opportunity exists for firms to sell food
billion in 2015. U.S. majority owned foreign affiliate items that are both fresh and readymade or easy to
sales were $405 billion in the country, and distribution prepare.
services accounted for more than $202 billion in
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2013.
Figure 29:
The population of Singapore is considered high Competitiveness Index Score
income, with a per capita income of about $80,270 Government/Regulatory 6.0
Labor Force 5.8
(PPP) per year. Unemployment has held steady around
Infrastructure 6.3
3 percent, and inflation was low, around .2 percent, in Demand 5.1
140
2014. Industry Interest 5.0
World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
Singapores retail food sector is one of the most Economic Statistics
advanced in the world. Food spending is expected to Population 5.6 Million
141 Cold Storage Capacity N/A
reach nearly $9 billion by 2020. The mature nature Pharmaceutical Sales $793 Million
of Singapores mass grocery retail sector is evidenced Food Spending $6.8 Billion
by intense competition, which ensures that retailers Food Spending per Capita $1,205
must be highly innovative to compete. Agribusiness Market N/A
Agriculture Imports $1.2 Billion
Singapore has one of the highest per capita incomes in Agriculture Exports $1.1 Billion
BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
the world, and more than 72 percent of the
population earns over $50,000 annually, presenting a
high level of consumer purchasing power. Therefore, Wet markets still represent a major point of sale for
catering to consumer preferences, rather than fresh grocery products. Wet markets are reminiscent
competing on price alone, presents an opportunity for of traditional markets and serve as destinations that
U.S. exporters. sell fresh produce, meat and fish products. Older
consumers tend to prefer shopping in these outlets.
Singaporean customers often value the ease of
shopping in convenience stores or online. Packaged The franchise sector in Singapore is well-developed
foods are an industry that appeals to this consumer and growing. There are more than 30,000 franchises in
segment, as these products are easier and less time- the country, and U.S. concepts are very well received.
consuming to cook. In the face of rising obesity rates, Many businesses use Singapore as a distribution
government initiatives and consumer choices to eat center and a showcase for concepts to the Asia region.
healthier have created demand for healthy processed With more than 15 million visitors each year, it is
foods. common for visitors to inquire into bringing a concept
seen in Singapore to their home country. Singapores
There is also strong demand for fresh products in well-developed infrastructure and strategic location
Singapore; even busy professionals who cannot make provide convenient access to the Asia region.
treks to the markets frequently will buy fresh produce
Resources:
Restaurant Association of Singapore (RAS)
U.S. Commercial Service: www.ras.org.sg
http://www.export.gov/singapore/
Singapore Hotel Association (SHA)
Country Commercial Guide: www.sha.org.sg
http://export.gov/ccg/singapore090882.asp
Industrys Take:
Singapore is a highly developed country with at
sophisticated distribution system. There is opportunity to
make Singapore a staging station for cross-docking facilities
to move product more efficiently.
Richard Tracy, Global Cold Chain Alliance
Strong foreign infrastructure and logistics activity signal that Overall Rank Lower-
Vietnam should be a growth market, though government Middle
regulatory concerns keep it on the lower end of this years Top Category
Markets rankings. 17 Ranking
3
Vietnam has an estimated GDP of $186 billion, and Across Asian nations, there has been a trend toward
exports of goods from the U.S. amounted to $5.7 purchasing groceries and food products online. This
billion in 2015. U.S. majority owned foreign affiliate may represent a great opportunity for cold chain
sales in Vietnam were $3.2 billion in 2013, an service providers, as the emergence of online
increase of 6.8 percent, but distribution services shopping for groceries should create additional
148
data is not available for the country. demand for refrigerated delivery and warehouses
near major population centers.
The population of Vietnam is considered lower
middle income, with a per capita income of about Figure 31:
$5,350 (PPP) per year. Unemployment is Competitiveness Index Score
approximately 2.3 percent, and inflation was 3.7 Government/Regulatory 3.8
149
percent in 2014. Labor Force 3.9
Infrastructure 3.9
Demand 4.2
Vietnams organized retail sector is at the beginning
Industry Interest 4.0
stages of growth, and most retailers and cold chain World Economic Forum and Global Cold Chain Alliance
operators are continuing to monitor the Economic Statistics
development of the market. Food spending is Population 93.4 Million
expected to increase on average by 10.5 percent Cold Storage Capacity N/A
150 Pharmaceutical Sales $4.2 Billion
annually to reach over $31 billion by 2020. There
Food Spending $19.1 Billion
is a traditional preference to eat fresh products, Food Spending per Capita $204
leaving the frozen food segment fragmented. The Agribusiness Market $43.3 Billion
entry of major retailers with supermarket models Agriculture Imports $5.0 Billion
combined with increasing exports of farming and Agriculture Exports $5.2 Billion
seafood products are expected to drive demand for BMI and Global Cold Chain Alliance
The estimated $46 billion franchise sector in Pharmaceutical sales in Vietnam are estimated at
Vietnam is very popular and well suited for the $4.2 billion and are anticipated to increase at a
developing economy. American food and beverage compound annual growth rate of over 12.5 percent
152
franchise brands have become big players in the to reach around $7.6 billion by 2020. Vietnam
market, as Vietnamese consumers associate western represents an attractive opportunity for refrigerated
brands with quality and lifestyle. logistics service providers to serve the growing
pharmaceutical industry.
With internet penetration at more than 45 percent,
e-commerce in Vietnam has grown substantially over Trade routes through Vietnam have increased
the last five years to reach nearly $4.2 billion in 2015 airfreight imports from the United States by an
153
and accounts for 2.1 percent of all retail sales, average of 19.2 percent since 2005, providing
according to the Vietnam E-Commerce and opportunities for express delivery services within the
country.
Information Technology Agency. The average Vietnams agribusiness market is expected to grow
151 154
shopper spent $165 online. to $51 billion by 2020. It is estimated that this
Industrys Take:
The cold storage market in Vietnam is over-built for current
operations. The organized retail sector is just starting to take
off, and thus, most players are keeping an eye on the
situation. There is potential for companies with a longer-term
approach.
Richard Tracy, Global Cold Chain Alliance
The U.S. government has numerous resources available to help U.S. exporters: from additional market
research to guides to export financing, to overseas trade missions, to staff around the country and the
world. A few key resources are highlighted below. For additional information about services from the
International Trade Administration (ITA), please visit www.export.gov.
Country Commercial Guides Trade missions include among other activities: one-
http://export.gov/ccg/ on-one meetings with foreign industry executives
Written by U.S. Embassy trade experts worldwide, and government officials that are pre-screened to
the Country Commercial Guides provide an excellent match specific business objectives.
starting point for what you need to know about
exporting and doing business in a foreign market. Certified Trade Fairs
The reports include sections addressing: market http://www.export.gov/eac/show_short_trade_eve
overview, challenges, opportunities and entry nts.asp?CountryName=null&StateName=null&Indust
strategies; political environment; selling U.S. ryName=null&TypeName=International%20Trade%2
products and services; trade regulations, customs 0Fair&StartDate=null&EndDate=null
and standards; and much more. The Department of Commerce's trade fair
certification program endorses overseas trade shows
Basic Guide to Exporting that are reliable venues and good markets for U.S.
http://export.gov/basicguide/ firms to sell their products and services abroad.
A Basic Guide to Exporting addresses virtually every These shows serve as a vital access vehicle for U.S.
issue a company looking to export might face. firms to enter and expand to foreign markets. The
Numerous sections, charts, lists and definitions certified show/U.S. pavilion ensures a high-quality,
throughout the books 19 chapters provide in-depth multi-faceted opportunity for American companies
information and solid advice about the key activities to successfully market overseas. Among other
and issues relevant to any prospective exporter. benefits, certified trade fairs provide U.S. exhibitors
with help facilitating contacts, market information,
Trade Finance Guide: A Quick Reference for U.S. counseling and other services to enhance their
Exporters marketing efforts.
http://www.export.gov/tradefinanceguide/index.asp
Trade Finance Guide: A Quick Reference for U.S. International Buyer Program
Exporters is designed to help U.S. companies, http://export.gov/ibp/
especially small and medium-sized enterprises, learn The International Buyer Program (IBP) brings
the basics of trade finance so that they can turn their thousands of international buyers to the United
export opportunities into actual sales and achieve States for business-to-business matchmaking with
the ultimate goal of getting paidespecially on U.S. firms exhibiting at major industry trade shows.
timefor those sales. Concise, two-page chapters Every year, the International Buyer Program results
offer the basics of numerous financing techniques in millions of dollars in new business for U.S.
from open accounts to forfaiting, to government companies by bringing pre-screened international
assisted foreign-buyer financing. buyers, representatives and distributors to selected
shows. U.S. country and industry experts are on site
Trade Missions at IBP shows to provide hands-on export counseling,
http://www.export.gov/trademissions/ market analysis and matchmaking services. Each IBP
Department of Commerce trade missions are show also has an International Business Center,
overseas programs for U.S. firms that wish to explore where U.S. companies can meet privately with
and pursue export opportunities by meeting directly prospective international buyers, prospective sales
with potential clients in their markets. representatives and business partners and obtain
assistance from experienced ITA staff.
U.S. businesses engaged in international cold chain activity assess markets against specific criteria when selecting
locations for expansion. The four primary criteria, according to industry sources, are the governmental regulatory
environment, whether there is a trainable skilled labor force, the infrastructure environment and the potential
demand within the country or region.
Government/Regulatory
The first aspect that U.S. industries consider when looking at a new market is the regulatory environment of the
country. In particular, U.S. industry looks for a stable government with transparent policymaking plus technical
regulations, standards and procedures for assessment of conformity that are non-discriminatory and based on
relevant, internationally recognized best practices. Legal frameworks that allow companies to resolve legal
disputes and challenge regulations are essential when identifying potential export markets.
Labor Force
Another important aspect for market decision-making is the quality and skill level of the potential work force in the
market. Industry must have the capacity to train and develop the talent and the management required to run an
efficient supply chain operation.
Infrastructure
The infrastructure within a country is another key aspect in a companys selection of export markets. Electricity
and IT infrastructure must be sufficient to support logistics operations. Transportation infrastructure must be
capable of supporting the reliable distribution of a product within the country or region without excessive delays.
The International Association of Refrigerated Warehouses has noted a strong correlation of cold storage capacity
161
to a countrys transportation score in the World Economic Forums Transport Index.
Demand
Finally, the demand within a country must be considered. The potential size of the market will depend on
consumer needs, the number of consumers in the country, products produced and demanded by the market as
well as the level of development within the market.
Methodology
When determining which global markets policy-makers should target for export promotion and trade policy
activities, it is important to account for the primary decision-making criteria of U.S. businesses engaged in the cold
chain market. In this report and the case studies that follow, the criteria for evaluating markets was based on the
four specific aspects of Government/Regulations, Labor Force, Infrastructure and Demand. These are reflected in
the reports scorecard and country case studies.
The scorecard for this report is derived from the Global Competitiveness Index 2015-2016 created by the World
162
Economic Forum for their Global Competitiveness Report. By using this competitiveness index, a cross-country
analysis based on these market evaluation criteria is possible. Particular aspects of the index were used to
represent the primary criteria that industry indicated as a priority in market selection.
New for 2016, a separate category has been added to assess industrys interest in each of the countries. The Global
Cold China Alliance, which represents all major industries engaged in temperature-controlled logistics, provided
ratings on a scale of 1 to 7, with 7 being the highest score based on their members expressed interest. This
industry interest category effectively contributes 20 percent to the total country score.
The case studies in this report analyze selected potential markets and assess important competitiveness factors.
These case studies are intended to aid ITA in promoting the development of efficient international cold chains to
improve U.S. export opportunities. Inclusion or omission of countries in the case study section does not necessarily
indicate that these are higher or lower ranked countries of opportunity but rather that government or private
sector representatives have expressed interest in learning more about these markets to ITAs Supply Chain Team.
Criteria (1 - 7 Best) U.S. Australia Canada Germany Japan Netherlands Poland Singapore UAE U.K.
Government/Regulatory 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 3.9 6.0 5.6 5.3
Ethics and corruption 4.5 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.7 3.7 6.2 6.2 5.4
Intellectual Property Protection 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.0 4.0 6.2 5.5 6.0
Legal framework- settling disputes 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 3.7 6.2 5.2 5.7
Legal framework- challenging regulations 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.6 5.5 3.1 5.2 4.7 5.3
Transparency of government policymaking 5.0 4.9 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 3.6 6.2 5.4 5.5
Foreign competition 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.6 5.8 5.0 6.4 5.9 5.3
Security 4.9 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.1 6.2 6.5 5.4
Burden of government regulation 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.9 2.8 5.4 5.2 3.9
Labor Force 5.6 4.5 5.2 4.6 4.7 4.8 3.9 5.8 5.6 5.5
Flexibility 5.4 4.2 5.2 4.2 5.2 4.7 4.3 6.1 6.0 5.4
Flexibility of wage determination 5.7 4.1 5.4 3.6 6.0 3.7 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.8
Hiring and firing practices 5.0 2.9 4.5 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.5 5.4 5.1 4.8
Country capacity to attract talent 5.8 4.8 5.3 4.7 3.3 5.0 2.4 6.0 5.9 5.9
Country capacity to retain talent 5.7 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.2 5.1 2.7 5.4 5.5 5.3
Reliance on professional management 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 6.1 4.3 6.1 5.5 5.9
On-the-job training 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.7 4.4 5.6 5.2 5.3
Infrastructure 5.8 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.1 4.4 6.3 6.2 5.9
Electricity and telephony infrastructure 5.8 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.1 6.5 5.9 6.4
Transport infrastructure 5.9 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.3 3.5 6.5 6.6 5.6
Technological adoption 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 4.5 6.0 6.1 5.8
Demand / Business Factors 5.4 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.3 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.3
Domestic market size 7.0 5.1 5.3 5.9 6.1 4.8 5.0 4.4 4.6 5.7
Domestic competition 5.2 4.9 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.5 4.7 5.8 5.8 5.3
Foreign competition 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.6 5.8 5.0 6.4 5.9 5.3
Control of international distribution 5.3 4.1 4.6 5.5 5.5 5.0 3.6 4.4 5.3 5.0
Local supplier quantity 5.4 4.7 5.1 5.8 6.2 5.2 5.1 4.5 5.4 5.6
Local supplier quality 5.5 5.3 5.4 6.0 6.2 5.6 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4
State of cluster development 5.5 4.1 4.5 5.5 5.3 5.2 3.6 5.1 5.5 5.3
Quality of Demand Conditions 5.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 5.7 4.9 4.1 5.2 5.1 5.0
Industry Interest 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Total Score 5.1 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.3 5.6 5.6 5.4
High-income economies tend to have well-developed distribution services, including cold chain systems. These
systems serve retail and franchise markets that are equally well-developed. Most opportunities for cold chain
service providers in these markets will be in acquisitions and consolidation of the services to improve efficiency in
the systems. U.S. cold chain providers and 3PLs that utilize the latest technologies and management practices to
solve unique challenges in specific markets are the most likely candidates to expand in these markets.
Upper middle-income markets tend to be prime for cold chain expansion and often have some established retail
and franchise industries that already utilize cols chain systems. These systems may vary from rudimentary to
advanced. There are likely many opportunities for a variety of cold chain service providers to enter and expand in
these markets, though the government/regulatory environment may hinder growth opportunities in many
countries.
Lower-middle income economies are usually in the burgeoning stages of retail and cold chain development. These
economies often need extensive investment for efficient systems. With less developed retail markets, it may be
difficult for many cold chain service providers to find profit opportunities in the local market; therefore, exporting
to other consumers markets usually offers the greatest opportunities. The growth of these markets will often hinge
on the ease of doing business and trade; government policies and infrastructure development are often the largest
impediments to business and to the growth of these economies.
U.S. Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration | Industry & Analysis (I&A)