Derivatives Option
Derivatives Option
Derivatives Option
n Journal of F
Finance & Acccounting
ISSN 19946-052X
2012, Vol. 4, No. 2
A Feasiibility Analys
A sis of Black-Sccholes--Merton
n
Diffeerentiall Equattion Moodel forr Stock Optionn Pricin
ng by
Usinng Histoorical Volatili
V ity : Wiith Refference to Seleected
Stock
k Optioons Traaded in NSE
Dr. R
Rekha Kala A.M.
Proffessor of Fin
nance
Abstract
In todayys financiaal world theere is a greaat need to prredict the vaalue of the assets, usin
ng which
strategic decisionss can be maade to makke short term m or long term
t capitall gains. Duue to the
dynamiic and uncertain naturee of the finaancial mark kets, the preediction of tthe asset prrices are
really ddifficult. Maany models have been ddeveloped to t predict th
he option priices in the financial
f
market. The certainnity of thesee models to predict the option prices to the moost accuratee level or
to the llevel of miinimum dev viation is qquestionable. This stu udy is aimeed at analyzzing the
feasibility of Blackk - Scholes Merton ddifferential equation
e moodel for stocck option prricing in
Indian sstock exchaanges. The result
r of thi s study can
n be used to predict the suitability of using
Black - Scholes Merton diffferential equuation mod del to predicct stock optiion prices in
n Indian
market. Further thee regression n analysis haas been useed to see thee impact of time to exp piry over
the optiion price annd anova tesst has been used to cheeck whetherr the mean difference betweenb
expecteed price as computed by y Black - Sccholes Merrton differen ntial equatioon model annd actual
price haave any siggnificant diifference. T The result of
o analysis found that Black - Sccholes
Merton model is morem usefull in call optioon pricing than the put option priccing and also o impact
of timinng is more relevenat
r for put optionn pricing thaan for call option
o pricinng.
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Introdu
uction
Financee is one of thhe most dyn
namic area iin the modeern corporate arena andd in a real seense, it is
cornersttone of thee free enterrprise systeem. Due to high volattility and uuncertain beehaviour
financiaal instrumennts have beccome compplex and it is undergoinng constant change in response
r
to shiftts in economic conditiions. In toddays highlly volatile and dynam mic world, financial
f
marketss have contiinued to prooduce a mulltitude of neew productss including m
many new formsf of
derivatiives, alternnative risk transfer pproducts, ex xchange traaded fundss, and variiants of
tax-dedductible equity.
The dayys have gonne when simmple busineess graduatees were maanaging the world of corporate
finance now area of
o finance iss controlled by mathem
maticians andd computerr scientists.
In the llast 30 yearrs derivativ ves have beecome increeasignly im mportant in ffinance. Deerivative
productts serve the vitally imp portant econnomic functtions of pricce discovery ry in the underlying
market and risk managemen
m t tools by facilitating the trading of risks among thee market
particippants. Pricinng is very im
mportant in ooptions conttract. Option ns traders usse a pricing formula
to deterrmine call anda put opttions pricess. Many mo odels have been
b develooped to preedict the
option pprices in thee financial market.
m The certainity ofo these mod dels to prediict the optio
on prices
to the most accurrate level or to the level of minimum m deeviation is questionab ble. The
Black-S Scholes moddel is consid dered as a vvery elegantt piece of reesearch intoo option pricces. The
model uuses ideas from
f the Bro
ownian mottion and oth her theoriess based on random waalk. The
model iinvolves cerrtain inheren nt assumptioons such as log-normall distributionn of the stocck price,
constannt volatility during the tenure
t of thhe option, in
nterest rate, exercise prrice and stocck price.
In the m
modern finannce theory Black
B - Schholes Mertton differen ntial equatioon model (19 970) has
promineent place sppecially afteer 1997 wheen Robert MertonM and Myron Schholes were awarded
a
the Nobbel prize forr economicss. Sadly, Fisscher Black k died in 19995, otherwisse he too haave been
one of tthe receipiennt of the priize (Hull & Basu 2010).
BlackScholes moodel
The datta inputs to this
t model are a current sstock price, exercise priice, expecteed volatility,, interest
rate andd time to exxpiry. In this model priicing of an option invo olves construructing a rep
plicating
hedge pportfolio commprising a long
l positioon in stock and
a a short position
p in a zero-coupo on bond.
The heddge portfoliio will be co onstituted inn such a waay that at an
ny given poiint of time its
i value
will alw
ways be equual to the opttions pricee at that timee. The propoortion of stoocks and boonds will
be deterrmined by thet Black-S Scholes form mula.As thee formula consists of cconstantly changing
c
factors, the portfollio mix has to be consttantly adjussted. So the portfolio iss called as dynamic
d
portfoliio and the acct of maintaaining the pportfolio in balance
b is called as heddge rebalanccing.
BLACK
K SCHOL
LES FORM
MULA FOR
R OPTION
N PRICING
G:
1 2
2 1
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ln 2
1
2 1
Here inn this formulla,
N(.) = ccumulative normal
n distribution funnction
ln = Naatural logaritthm
S = Spoot price of sttock
X = Exeercise pricee of the optio
on
r = Annnual risk free rate of retturn
t = Tim
me to expiry of the optio
on
= Annnual volatillity of the sttock
One of tthe assumpttions and lim
mitations off the Black Scholes model
m is thatt the asset pays zero
dividennd. This cannnot be the case with all the asseets. In 19733, Robert M Merton prov vided an
analysiss of Black & Scholes model
m in whhich he sugggested adjusttments to taake care of dividend
d
paymennts. So this helped
h in ovver coming one of the limitations
l of Black SScholes mo odel.
BLACK
K SCHOL
LES MER
RTON FO
ORMULA:
1 2
2 1
ln 2
1
2 1
Here inn this case,
d = Annnual dividennd yield
Problem
m Statemen
nt
Using thhe Black Scholes Merton
M moddel to calculaate the expeected call opption and pu
ut option
prices ffor various expiry
e datess through daata gathered
d from NSE E website foor stock optiions and
comparre it with thet actual stock optioon price, to find out whether B Black Sccholes
Merton(B-S-M) model is feasible in preddicting optio on prices in Indian mark rket.
Objectiives
1. To test the viability off Scholes Merton mo
odel using reeal time dataa from NSE
E.
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Mervillle (1980)1 tested the Black Schooles model against the constant ellasticity of variance
v
(CEV) m model, which assumes volatility cchanges wheen the stock k prices chan
anges. Blattb
berg and
2
Gonedees (1974) suggest
s volaatility of thee underlying
g stock is stochastic and
nd random.
In the m
modern finannce theory Black
B - Schholes Mertton differen
ntial equatioon model (19970) has
promineent place sppecially afteer 1997 wheen Robert Merton
M and Myron Schholes were awarded
a
the Nobbel prize forr economicss. Sadly, Fisscher Blackk died in 199 95, otherwisse he too haave been
one of tthe receipiennt of the priize (Hull & Basu 2010).
Bhattaccharya, M. (1980)3 in his
h paper Emmpirical propperties of th
he Black Schholes formu
ula under
ideal coonditions, examined th he "Black-S choles" meethod for pricing, its fuundamentalss and its
applicattions in the 21st centurry economyy.
Radu, TTurcan(20100)4,in their paper BL LACK-SCHOLES MOD DEL USED D TO EVA ALUATE
STOCK KS OPTION NS mentio oned that Paartial differrential equaation, parabbolic Black--Scholes
type: V
V/t + 1/2 S V/S + rS V/S - rrV=0 is useed in evaluatting equity ooptions, thaat paying
constannt and contiinue dividennds or in evvaluate options in whiich interest rate, volatiility and
dividennd are depenndent on tim
me.
Heston,, Steven L.; L Loewen nstein, Marrk; Willardd, Gregory A (2007) 5 found th hat The
Black-S Scholes-Merton option n valuationn method involves
i deeriving andd solving a partial
differenntial equatioon (PDE). But
B this metthod can geenerate multiple valuess for an opttion. We
providee new solutions for thee Cox-Ingerrsoll-Ross (CIR)( term structure m model, the constant
elasticitty of variannce (CEV) model, annd the Hestton stochastic volatilitty model. Multiple
M
solutionns reflect asset
a pricin
ng bubbles, dominated d investmen nts, and (ppossibly inffeasible)
arbitragges. We proovide condiitions to rulle out bubb bles on underlying pricces. If theyy are not
satisfiedd, put-call parity
p mightt not hold, A
American calls
c have no
n optimal eexercise pollicy, and
lookbacck calls have infinite vaalue. We claarify a longstanding coonjecture off Cox, Ingerssoll, and
Ross.
Scott MMcKenzie, Dionigi Geerace, Zafffar Subedarr, (2007) 6 in their paaper An em mpirical
investiggation of thhe Black-Sccholes moddel: Eviden
nce from th
he Australiaan stock exxcahnge
evaluatees the probbability of an exchangge traded European
E caall option bbeing exerccised on
1
MacBeeth, J. D., annd Merville, L.L J. (1980). Tests of the Black-Schole
B es and Cox ccall option vaaluation
models. Journal of finance,
fi 35(2)), 285-301.
2
Blattbberg, R. C., and Gonedes, J. (1974). A comparison n of the stablle and studennt distributions as
statisticaal models forr stock pricess. Journal off business, 47(2), 244- 2880.
3
Bhattaacharya, M. (1980). Emppirical properrties of the Black
B Scholess formula unnder ideal co
onditions.
Journal of financial and quantita
ative analysiss, 15(5), 108
81-1105.
4
Turcann. (2010) Annals of the University
U off Oradea, Eco
onomic Scien nce Series, 2 010, Vol. 19 Issue 2,
p795-7999,
5
Hestonn, Steven L.; Loewenstein n, Mark; Willlard, Gregorry A.(2007), Review off Financial Sttudies,
Mar2007, Vol. 20 Isssue 2, p359-3 390, 32p
6
d Subedar, Z.,, (2007)An empirical inveestigation off the Black-S
McKennzie, S.; Geraace, D.; and Scholes
model:evidence from m the Australlian Stock Exxchange, Ausstralasian Acccounting Buusiness and Finance
F
Journal,, 1(4), 2007.
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ASX2000 Option Inndex. Using g single-parrameter estim mates of factors withinn the B & S model,
this papper utilises qualitative
q regression
r aand a maxim mum likelihood approacch. Results indicate
that the B & S moddel is statistiically signifficant at the 1% level an
nd it also prrovide evideence that
the use of implied volatility
v an
nd a jump-ddiffusion app proach, whiich increasees the tail prroperties
of the uunderlying lognormal distributionn, improves the statistical significcance of thee B & S
model.
Espen G Gaarder Hauug & Nassim Nicholass Taleb (200 08)7 in theirr paper Wh
Why We Hav ve Never
Used thhe Black-Sccholes-Mertton Option Pricing Fo ormula em mphasized oon the gap between
b
finance theory andd practicle. They
T furtheer narated th
hat Option hedging,
h priicing, and trrading is
neither philosophyy nor matheematics. It iis a rich craaft with traaders learninng from traaders (or
traders copying othher traders) and tricks ddeveloping under evolu ution pressuures, in a boottom-up
mannerr. This studdy is aimed at analyzzing the feeasibility of Black - Scholes Merton
differenntial equatioon model fo
or stock optiion pricing in Indian Context. Thee result of th his study
can be uused to predict the suitability of uusing Black k - Scholes Merton ddifferential equation
e
model tto predict sttock option prices in Inndian markeet. Further thet indipend
ndent t test has
h been
used to check wheether the meean differennce between n expected price as coomputed by Black -
Scholess Merton differential
d equation moodel and ctu ual price havve any signiificant diffeerence or
saying oof Espen Gaaarder Haug g & Nassim m Nicholas Taleb
T is corrrect.
Chaudh hury and Jason
J 96) examineed the behavior of Eu
(199 uropean opption price and the
Black-S Scholes moddel bias wh hen stock reeturns follow w a GARCH (1,1) proocess. The GARCH G
option pprice is not preference neutral andd depends ono the unit risk
r premium um (l) as weell as the
two GA ARCH (1,1)) process parameters ((a1 ,b1). Deeep-out-of the-money and short maturity m
options are an excception. The variance persistencee parameter, g = a1 + b1, has a material
bearingg on the maggnitude of th
he Black-Sccholes modeel bias. The risk
r preferennce parameeter, l, on
the otheer hand, determines thee so called leverage efffect and caan be imporrtant in deteermining
the direection of thee Black-Sch
holes model bias.
Heston and Nanddi (2000)8 in n their papeer developed d a closed-fform optionn valuation formula
for a spot asset whoose variance follows a GARCH(p, q) process that can bee correlated with the
returns of the spott asset. Thee single lagg version off this modeel contains Heston's sttochastic
volatilitty model asa a continu uous-time liimit. Empirrical analyssis on S&PP500 index options
shows tthat the out-of-sample valuation
v err
rrors from th
he single lag
g version off the GARCHH model
are subbstantially loower than the ad hoc Black-Sch holes modell that uses a separate implied
volatilitty for each option
o to fitt to the smirrk/smile in the
t implied volatilities .
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9
Lehar,, Alfred; Sch
heicher, Marrtin; Schittennkopf, Christtian. (2002) GARCH vs. sstochastic vo olatility:
Option ppricing and risk
r managem ment, Journaal of Banking g & Finance, Mar2002, V Vol. 26 Issue 2/3,
p323, 233p,
10 Chriistoffersen, Peter;
P Heston n, Steve; Jaccobs, Kris. (2 2006), Option n valuation w with conditio
onal
skewnesss, Journal off Econometriics, Mar/Aprr2006, Vol. 131 Issue 1/2, p253-284,
11 Baroone-Adesi, Giovanni;
G Enggle, Robert F F.; Mancini, Loriano(200 08), A GARC CH Option Pricing
P
Model w with Filtered Historical Simulation.,
S R
Review of Fin nancial Stud dies, May20008, Vol. 21 Isssue 3,
p1223-11258,
12 Singgh, Vipul Kum mar; Ahmad d, Naseem; P Pachori, Push hkar(2011), Empirical
E annalysis of GAARCH
and Practitioner Blaack-Scholes Model
M for prricing S&P CNX C Nifty 50 index optionns of India., Decision
D
(0304-09941), Aug2011, Vol. 38 Isssue 2, p51-667,
13
Rotkoowski, Aaronn M.(2011), Estimating
E Scholes-Mertonn Model, Vallue
Stockk Price Volatilitty in the Black-S
Examineer, Nov/Dec22011, p13-19 9, 7p,
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Table NNo. 1 shows difference between ann expected and a actual prrice of a calll option exp piring in
7 days. Expected price has beeen computedd by using Using U the Bllack Schooles Merto on model
which iis based on 5 factor vizz. Spot pricce of stock, Exercise prrice of the ooption, Ann nual risk
free ratee of return, Time
T to exp
piry of the opption, Annu ual volatilityy of the stocck. Table shows that
in case of short perriod (7 dayss) there is si gnificant diifference beetween expeected and acctual call
option pprice. The difference
d iss m,aximum m in case of Hindalco
H caall option prrice where expected
e
price is absent due to zero valu ue of N(d1) and N(d2), while the co omperative difference is i less in
case of INFY Call option i.e. Rs. R 1.9780 (27.6780-25 5.7) 7.15% only .
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Observvations
In the ccase of calll option wiith time to expiry of 7 days, the least diffeerence in prrice was
achieveed in Hindaalco Industtries limitedd which is Rs.0.1000 and follow wed by JaiiPrakash
Associaates with Rss.0.3129. Inn the case off call optionn with time to expiry oof 15 days, the
t least
differennce in pricee was achiieved in Hiindalco Ind dustries lim
mited whichh is Rs.0.24 447 and
followeed by JaiPraakash Asso ociates withh Rs.0.2693. In the casse of call ooption with time to
expiry oof 30 days, the least difference in price was achieved
a in JaiPrakash associates which
w is
Rs.0.14482 and followed by Hindalco
H Inndustries limmited with Rs.0.3891..In the casee of call
option wwith time too expiry of 43
4 days, thee least diffeerence in priice was achhieved in JaiiPrakash
associattes which iss Rs.0.2507 and followwed by Hind dalco Industrries limitedd with Rs.0.33535
Table 5. The price difference between
b an expected an
nd actual priice of a put ooption expiring in 7
days.
DATA JP Assocciate RIL
L SBI
S HINDALCO
O INFY
Underlyiing Price 67.00 7866.35 1,937.55
1 139.40 2,352.6
60
Exercise Price 70.00 7800.00 2,100.00
2 150.00 2,400.0
00
Considerration Date 9/22/201
11 9/2 2/2011 9/22/2011
9 9/22/2011 9/22/20
011
Expiry D
Date 9/29/201
11 9/2 9/2011 9/29/2011
9 9/29/2011 9/29/20
011
Historicaal Volatility 43.56% 23.771% 31.45%
3 35.50% 23.34%
%
Risk Free Rate 8.30% 8.300% 8.30%
8 8.30% 8.30%
Dividendd yield 0.86% 0.7 6% 1.08%
1 0.72% 1.85%
Time(Yeears) 0.02 0.022 0.02
0 0.02 0.02
d1 -0.67230
07 0.30073922 -1.795032
- -1.436585 -0.3560
009
Nd1 0.2507 0.62207 0.0363
0 0.0754 0.3609
9
d2 -0.7326 0.27746 -1.8386
- -1.4857 -0.4052
2
Nd2 0.2319 0.60082 0.0330
0 0.0687 0.3427
7
Expectedd Price 3.4868 6.94424 160.7120
1 10.6079 72.095
53
Actual P
Price 3.9 14.445 165
1 11.5 78.5
Differencce in value 0.4132 7.50076 4.2880
4 0.8921 6.4047
7
% Differrence 10.59487 51.995571 2.598788
2 7.757391 8.1588
853503
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Observvations
In the caase of put opption with time to expirry of 7 dayss, the least difference inn price was achieved
a
in JaiPrrakash assocciates which h is Rs.0.41132 and folllowed by Hiindalco Indu dustries limiited with
Rs.0.89921. In the case
c of put option
o with ttime to expiry of 15 daays, the leastt differencee in price
was achhieved in State Bank off India whicch is Rs.0.63 310 and folllowed by JaaiPrakash asssociates
with Rss.0.6335 In the case of put option w with time too expiry of 30 days, thee least diffeerence in
price wwas achieveed in Hindalco Industtries limited which iss Rs.2.32255 and follo owed by
JaiPrakkash Associaates with Rss.2.7974. Inn the case off put option with time too expiry of 43 days,
the leasst difference in price wasw achieveed in JaiPraakash assocciates whichh is Rs.0.2438 and
followeed by Hindaalco Industrries limited with Rs.2.8 8651. So it can be seenn that mosttly in all
cases JaaiPrakash Associates
A an
nd Hindalcoo Industries limited has occupied thhe first two ranks in
providinng least diff
fference fromm the actuall price.
It is alsso observedd that JaiPraakash associiates has go ot a historiccal annual vvolatility off 43.56%
and hinndalco Indusstries limited d has got a hhistorical an
nnual volatiility of 35.5 % which arre higher
than thee historical annual volaatility of othher three commpanies.
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Observvations
From thhe above annalysis it is found
f that tthe expectedd values varry significanntly from thhe actual
values. In the Tablee 9, it can be found thatt the percen ntage averagge differencee in prices keeps
k on
decreassing as the number of days to exxpiry increases. This sh hows that tthe accuracy of the
Black-SScholes-Merton model in computaation of calll option pricces increasees as the nu umber of
days to expiry increeases. It cann also be fouund that thee average diffference in rrupee pricess for call
options are mostlyy lower than n the averaage differen nce in rupeee prices forr put option ns, while
averagee percentage difference is not sim milar in alll four casess as call opption showss higher
percentage differennces compaared to put option price. This show ws that the prediction level of
Black-SScholes-Merton model for a call opption is high her than thaat of the putt option. Regression
analysiss of differennce in follow
wing sectionn makes ou ur inference more valid..
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C oefficients((a)
Staandardized
Model Unstandarrdized Coefficcients Coefficients t Sig.
B Std. Error Betta B Std. Error
1 (Constant) 2.428 1.012 2.399 .139
9
Days .142 .037 .939 3.856 .061
1
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CPD: C
Call price Avverage % Difference
D w
with Actual Price
P
PPD: Puut price Average % Difference wiith Actual Price
P
Table vvalue at 5%% significancce level forr 3DF is 3.1 182 while computed
c t value is 2.624 that
indicatees that B-S--M model iss identical ffor both calll and put op
ption pricinng henceforrth H3 is
accepteed.
Hypothhesis can be concluded in the follow
wing manneer:
H1: Theere is no siggnificant diffference bettween the exxpected optiions price ccomputed by
y B-S-M
Model by taking historical
h voolatrility annd actual prrice determined by maarket forcess. Result
Accepted.
H2: There is no im mpact of lenngth of tim
me to expiry
y on the diff
fference betw
tween expeccted and
actual ooptions pricce. Rejected/ Not Acccepted because for bo oth call andd put there is stong
corelatiion betweenn time to exp
piry and priice.
H3: Blaack Schole Merton
M mod
del gives iddentical resu
ult for both call option price as weell as put
option pprice. Accep
pted
Recommendation
ns for the Application
A of Model:
Traders neeed to be cauutious whilee using Black-Schole-MMerton modeel for prediccting the
price of putt option as the
t averge vvariation in the prices are
a higher inn case of pu
ut option
compared tot call optioon.
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