Trends and traditions

Negotiating different cultural models in relation to sustainable

craft and artisan production
Simon Fraser
Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design, University of the Arts London

Ulrike Oberlack
Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design, University of the Arts London

Elizabeth Wright
Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design, University of the Arts London

If the identity of design as a practice is contested then the relationship of design and
designers to craft and craft practices can be hugely confused. This lack of clarity can
encourage non-design based organisations to promote the use of trend forecasting as
a panacea to the design dilemma associated with craft production for non-traditional
markets. Consequently fashion sensitive trends become perceived as the driving force
of design-led consumption. In this context how do we understand what trend forecast-
ing is and becomes when used in this manner? How does it contribute or not to the
sustainability of local design cultures?
This paper examines how these challenges have been interrogated and experi-
enced through practice at Masters Level at Central Saint Martins College of Art and
Design. It seeks sustainable strategies for design and craft drawing on a diverse range
of examples to illustrate contemporary artefacts realised from a diverse range of pro-
jects, sources and geographical locations.

Introduction
The initial use of trend forecasts originates from the global centres of design promotion where cultural
capital associated with craft practice is regularly adopted to add authenticity to rapidly moving consumer
cycles. What issues does this raise for artisan and craft communities?
For craft communities referencing trend forecasting may appear a logical response to the risk of engaging
with a design-led market. However, does this strategy put local innovation into a passive or subservient
relationship to consumer-led value systems and inhibit the development of intellectual capital within host
communities?
Is it not more sustainable to identify those areas of added value that are specific to the qualities and
characteristics of particular craft traditions and communities, in order to create products that have a
longer term place within a contemporary market context? How can a discourse between the various
stakeholders from design, craft and artisan communities make a significant contribution to such issues?
In this context we need to acknowledge that there are different types of trend forecasting and use of trend
information within design processes. In this paper we discuss how different forms of market and context
intelligence might be used within design projects that involve craft and artisan communities.

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Why trend forecasting?

Why is it relevant to talk about trend forecasting in relationship to the sustainability of craft and artisan
production? Increasingly local and indigenous markets are affected by shifts in consumer attitudes and
behaviours in response to globalisation and industrialization that threatens traditional craft practice. If
crafts or artisan communities want to develop products that are relevant to contemporary commercial
markets, local, indigenous or export, then they will be affected by consumer trends.
Trend forecasting contributes to the process where industrialised companies attempt to identify and
interpret changes in consumer attitudes and behaviour in order to respond to their markets, to anticipate
consumer desires and needs and to reduce perceptions of commercial risk. However, this is not a simple
task. There are different consumption systems and cycles within the industrialised context. If traditional
crafts want to compete within the international market place and industrialised products, there can be a
conflict between the different production and consumption cycles, for example, speed of production,
scope for diversification, scalability etc. Each of these issues are driven by specific contextual assump-
tions. Not least that technological enablers have consequences within cultures familiar with and condi-
tioned by concepts of obsolescence. These assumptions have implications for the sustainability of crafts
consumption viewed within these expectations

What is trend forecasting?

Historically aesthetic trend forecasting originated in the fashion industry in the mid nineteenth century,
with the first fashion trend consultancy opening in New York in 1927. Post Second World War future
casting, the long-term macro economic and social planning process, was developed by the American mili-
tary and later adapted by large business corporations. At the same time advertising agencies formally be-
gan to study consumer behaviour (Higham (2009) p.44-45).
During the 1960s, when the interest in newness and innovation was at the forefront of western social
thinking, the word trend moved from scientific usage into social commentary. Trend has come to
mean a prevailing tendency, an inclination, of statistically detectable change or of current style or prefer-
ence (Higham (2009) p 14-15).
Today there are at least three different types of contemporary trend approaches each with different
time horizons. These are different lenses through which to consider the future, each with different focal
lengths and focusing on different cycles and different aspects of society(ies), geography, etc. (figure 1).

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Figure 1: Time horizons of different types of forecasting

Source: Graphics by ultra-indigo based on an interview with Tim Hoar (ultra-indigo (2010a))

Retail, brand and aesthetic trend forecasting are perhaps most familiarly understood to represent trend
forecasting within the consumer context. The general assumption is that a trend forecast concerns the
broadly based aesthetic information of, colour, texture, silhouette, form and mood or look indicators for
the next production cycle. This perception is now widely utilised across clothing, consumer products and
interiors industries. Viewed against the diagram it can be appreciated what an extremely short time-scale
trend forecasts cover in reality, perhaps as little as eighteen months.
In contrast to the short cycles of trend forecasting, future casting works with timelines from one year
to perhaps ten years ahead. In the consumer context, future casting is less densely referenced than trend
forecasting, is likely to use scenario techniques and to be part of a medium term commercial or gov-
ernmental strategy. For example, driven by the need to source the requisite chemicals to manufacture dye
colours, the textile industry practices the use of long term colour charts up to eight or nine years ahead.
Macro scenarios, or what is sometimes termed Futurology or Futures Studies covers the longest-term
view. Macro scenarios examine long-term cycles in economics, governmental policy, the environment,
social statistical feedback, and technological innovations in order to look at possible, probable and prefer-
able future scenarios.
These different types of forecasting become overlaid and influence each other. Taken together they
provide a contextual awareness that fuels design practice. Trend forecasting, by its very nature, is not
about predicting the future, but taking the pulse and making an educated guess based on a contextual
awareness. Such sensitivity cannot be achieved by buying in a short term look book.

Why use trends?

With the absence of alternative models many non-design based organisations promote the use of trend
forecasting as a panacea to the design dilemma associated with craft production for non-traditional mar-
kets for craft artefacts. Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) such as the CBI Centre for the Promo-
tion of Imports from Developing Countries, The Netherlands, provide market information, trend forecast-
ing and business advice to craft and artisan based communities or companies who wish to enter western
industrialised markets.

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Whilst in most cases this trend information is free or low cost, access to market information and trend
forecasting allows craft and artisan communities or companies insight into potential new markets and
contexts for their products. However, the use of this information can be problematic (figure 2).

Figure 2: Time lags in trend forecasting

Sources: Our Metropolis, CBI Centre for the Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries, The Netherlands (2010).
Alexander McQueen, Thestyleandbeautydoctor.com (2009). Burberry/Emma Watson, posh24.com (2009)

For example, this mood board from the CBI website defines a graphic trend in fashion for Autumn
2010. The illustrations include pictures of garments from leading fashion designers from autumn winter
2009 collections, which have been in the public domain as images since spring 2009. This time-frame
means anyone referencing this trend forecast today, will at best begin product development in the middle
to later stages of the trend.
Whilst the fashion industry with its notoriously short trend cycles, might be an extreme example,
similar patterns of adoption can now be detected in other associated sectors. As fashion brands have di-
versified into home wares and ultimately into lifestyle brands, shorter trend cycles have started to appear
in related product areas. Noticeably each fashion season Missoni and Kenzo have striking surface de-
signs for tableware (The Times (2005)). Armani has designed a range of hotels and on the European high
street Zara has gone into ceramic production. These examples raise the question, how long before this is
a global phenomenon and seasonal trend forecasting dominates all product areas?
For designers and design companies who work within these systems this process has an integrated
logic. They understand the changing nature of their suppliers and can amalgamate the cycles around
changes in production, supply chains, target markets and market competitors. Using this range of inter-
linked and inter-dependant information to contextualise their design and creative practice. Indeed this was
historically the position of many crafts and artisan communities who worked in smaller more localised
frameworks (Tyabji (1998)).

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How does the use of trend forecasting contribute

to or challenge the sustainability of local craft
and design cultures?

Figure 3: Craft/artisan practice informs early stages of aesthetic trends, which filter
through into trend forecasting that is typically accessed by craft/artisan production later
in the trend cycle.
Source: Graphics by ultra-indigo based on interview with Tim Hoar (ultra-indigo (2010a)) and ultra-indigo design
practice

During the development of aesthetic trend forecasting material, craft products often inform the visual
imagery of colours, forms and material identities as one strand among many influences. Crafts power to
influence the design process often originates from strong photographic images. The two-dimensional
visual nature of forecast publications changes the understanding of objects experienced in three dimen-
sions and this influences the creative process. There is a danger as this process risks stripping the particu-
lar knowledge embodied in craft from the equation and from any understanding of the value it might con-
tribute.
The crafts selected as visual references often include western studio practice, contemporary crafts
from global communities, alongside historic craft artefacts from museum and ethnographic collections.
This diversity of references is possible because craft practitioners are typically perceived to produce
objects and not product ranges. Whilst single objects offer the potential of further design exploit-
ation, product ranges come with visible research and development processes that support the associated
claims to trademarks and intellectual property (ultra-indigo (2010a)).
For example, the following images have been selected from the July 2010 colour trend forecasting
newsletter e:mix (figure 4). The images are of crafted objects and include glass, ceramic, textiles and fur-
niture. Amongst the imagery only one of the designers is credited by name. In this rush for free market
information the concept of intellectual capital of the craft practitioner or designer is overlooked.

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Figure 4: Images of craft objects informing current colour trend forecasting

Source: Global Color Research Mix Publications (2010)

In this context global crafts communities accessing trend material produce objects at the end of the com-
mercial cycle and miss the peak of the market because of the development time required to incorporate
trend information into the production process. In extreme examples producers are so late to the trend that
they receive no benefit at all.
Alternatively, stripped of their original context and use craft items fail to address the needs or aspira-
tions of contemporary audiences. This is unsurprising when these audiences have already seen a more
relevant interpretation of these original craft artefacts presented as industrial products. The copy thus de-
fines consumer perceptions of the original object.
In addition, these industrially produced versions will have satiated demand by supplying low cost
mass produced products and subsequently destroyed access to a bespoke market for their original higher
quality producer groups. The current global trend for printed summer textiles featuring Central Asian Ikat
is a classic example. (highheelconfidential.com (2010)) Over the past year or so, there has been an emer-
gence of exquisite hand-woven silk Ikat from Central Asia into the high-end textile markets. Before pro-
ducer groups or even dealers could establish an effective market foothold, digital scanning has made
these fabrics available to mass market manufacture. The extraordinary knowledge embodied in Ikat as a
technological and cultural tradition has been subsumed within industrialised print production. Once ap-
propriated in this fashion it becomes perceived as merely a visual device rather than understood as a cul-
tural tradition.
Nevertheless, for many craft communities referencing trend forecasting may appear a logical response
to the risk of engaging with a design-led market. However, this strategy puts local innovation into a vul-
nerable relationship to consumer-led value systems and inhibits the development of intellectual capital
within host communities. For although support from trend forecasting material can engender a feeling
of security, if the trend forecasts drives the product development within craft communities without an
inherent understanding of the craft tradition, the craft process is subjugated to a follower mentality. This
shift in mindset changes the reflective conversation within crafts practice from an engagement with ma-
terials to following fashion or aping alternative material solutions. In extreme cases it can breed a copyist

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culture. One of the most difficult issues facing artisan practice today is that the wide spread copyist cul-
ture degrades perfectly good crafts. This observation by designer Patty Johnson (ultra-indigo (2010b))
derives from her intimate knowledge and collaborative fieldwork with, amongst others, the Wai Wai
weavers of Guyana, the Etsha Weavers Group, Okavango Delta, and Mabeo Furniture, Botswana.
By relying on trend forecasts local practitioners or those working with them can become estranged
from traditional connections. With an un-interrogated idea of traditional craft objects practitioners fail to
understand the historic capital within the artefacts and the process of their production and consumption.
Without this understanding, alternative scenarios for the craft objects are difficult to envisage. A histori-
cally local focus and social value of craft objects make it difficult to see beyond the horizon to alternative
perspectives when the context changes. For example, Pakistani roadside terracotta water containers have
lost ground to aluminium or plastic alternatives. The unique ability of traditional terracotta to cool water
through evaporation and to impart a particular taste is lost to the convenience of contemporary contain-
ers. This seemingly small change has had a huge impact on a two thousand year old ceramic culture. This
loss was interrogated and re-framed through a sensitive exploration of terracotta as a contemporary
tableware material by Maham Anjum-Chesti (2006). However, the local crafts people had become so
estranged from this indigenous industry that the project was re-located to Sri Lanka where culturally the
material was still valued. The collaboration with Sri Lankan potters and its subsequent press coverage has
refocused the global design community on the use of terracotta in the tabletop landscape.
Much of the creativity of re-envisaging or updating traditional craft objects to become relevant to
contemporary market(s) lies in understanding the potential of the initial object within its full range of
original contexts, applications and meanings. From this understanding objects can be re-framed with rel-
evance for new contexts and new markets. With this knowledge the object can be re-accessed and trans-
formed through design. This contextual awareness, that allows creative re-interpretation, is one of the
assets that a contemporary designer can bring to a collaborative process with artisan communities. Arabel
Lebrusan (2007) is an exemplar, working with silver filigree, an endangered craft in her native Spain. Her
field research revealed only two remaining masters of Spanish filigree still practicing. Her MA project
created two bodies of work, a truly extraordinary full scale Mantilla in silver filigree and an award win-
ning, commercially viable range of gold and silver filigree jewellery.
In the MA Design Ceramics, Furniture or Jewellery program at Central Saint Martins College of Art
and Design, London, we encourage designers to understand and interpret trends and develop many ways
of thinking about how to do this. Our designers bring design knowledge into the craft process and offer
alternative ways of thinking through the process of innovation. This can offer communities the ability to
be objective about their historical practice and how that practice might change to become relevant in new
contexts.
Contextualisation and objectification of practice, whether personal or inherited, are the most difficult
tasks for any practitioner. So how does a community learn to be objective about what they actually do?
There is no single reality or truth about what objective might mean in this context. It is a process of gath-
ering thoughts and evidence in the minds of the collaborators and then making these explicit. It is import-
ant that this is not just an evidence based process but also inspirational (ultra-indigo (2010b)).
Trend forecasting can be used a part of the armoury a designer or a collaborator uses working with a
community. But design thinking goes beyond these parameters. As Lila Tyabji (1998) reflects when talk-
ing about SEWA Lucknow:
but design in this case went far beyond the cut of a kurta, or the application of new embroidery
buta. It included skills upgrading, the documentation and revival of traditional stitches, embroidery
motifs and tailoring techniques, the introduction of new kinds of raw material ...sizing, costing, qual-
ity control, and production planning and an alternative marketing and promotional strategy...

There is a temptation to look at trend forecasting for the surface visual information alone as if this in itself
was a guarantee of success. In the same way that there is danger in stripping away the contextual and ma-
terial elements of craft, it is important not to repeat this omission when reading the visuals incorporated in
trend prediction. The artefacts referenced as visuals in the forecasts, in themselves incorporate a huge
range of additional elements brought together to facilitate the success of the final object. The danger lies
in the lack of contextualised knowledge by designers of craft and by craft of design. In order for sustain-
able practice to emerge, craft, design and industrial design practices have to recognize that each has
strengths and limitations and they can learn from each other.
Trend forecasts can be can be a useful aid to contextualisation in order to examine assumptions, hid-
den knowledge or historical precedents, and to explain alternative cultural models. They can also be used
to check where there are connections to current market interests and to review current production. Fore-

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casts help explain the relevance of current craft and artisan work to buyers, and conversely present and
interpret the market place to support the different or unique selling points that craft cultures offer.

Conclusions
This discussion around the use of trend forecasting by, for or with craft communities takes place against
the background of traditional models of production breaking down as lead times and traditional relation-
ships are challenged by global interconnectedness. The concept of reliable futures extrapolated from
known elements, as a continuation of present practice is no longer viable.
Clearly trend forecasts are tightly edited productions that use a particular language that is entirely
open to misinterpretations. They are designed to be used in a system where everyone understands how
that system functions. There are many implicit layers of understanding and unspoken complexities that
confound expectations of a simplistic reading by practitioners from alternative systems or models of prac-
tice. Sustainable practice demands that trends and traditions negotiate their different cultural models and
the responsibility for this lies with all of us. Projects like those conducted by Patty Johnson, Maham An-
jum-Chesti and Arabel Lebrusan indicate that careful and consistent collaborative practice based on thor-
ough research and mutual respect can offer long-term and scalable solutions in academic, NGO and
commercial arenas.

References
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[Accessed 12 Jul 2010]
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[Accessed 12 Jul 2010]
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ultra-indigo (2010a) Trend Forecasting and Craft/Designer-Maker Practice; Interview with Tim Hoar, Trends Trans-
lator, Creativity and futures translator, Creative Futures Consultant, London, UK. Unpublished Interview
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About the authors

Simon Fraser is Course Director, MA Design; Ceramics, Furniture or Jewellery at Central Central Saint Martins
College of Art and Design, University of the Arts London. He has a professional career as a designer, consultant,
educator, writer and performer. He has lectured widely internationally and has presented his live arts work at the
Victoria and Albert Museum London, The ICA London and most recently at Somerset House , London. With wide
experience of luxury brands consultancy, his current research focus is the relationship of design to micro and small
scale manufacture.

Ulrike Oberlack is Associate Lecturer, MA Design; Ceramics, Furniture or Jewellery and PhD researcher on wear-
able light at Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design, University of the Arts London. A background in sci-
ence and change management informs her research thinking for this paper. Her own work showcases an approach to
working with light on the body as an immaterial medium and encompasses dance, film and photography.

Elizabeth Wright is Associate Lecturer, MA Design; Ceramics, Furniture or Jewellery, Central Saint Martins Col-
lege of Art and Design and led a survey on approaches to craft education for the National Arts Learning Network
NALN, as Research Fellow for the University of the Arts London. With long term experience in the fashion industry,
architectural and interiors development Wright frequently commentates on developments in design thinking

Fraser, Oberlack and Wright have consolidated their extensive range of professional experience across disciplines in
art and design into ultra-indigo, their design and design strategy consultancy.

Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the following colleagues for their contributions to this paper:
Patty Johnson, Director, NorthSouth Project, Toronto, Canada
Tim Hoar, Creative Futures Consultant, Innovation Centre, Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design,
London, UK

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