Modern - Project - Management-T. Soota (New Age, 2005)
Modern - Project - Management-T. Soota (New Age, 2005)
Modern - Project - Management-T. Soota (New Age, 2005)
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PREFACE
Projects are more complex than they seem to appear because of recurring changes in resources,
objectives, requirements and technology, etc. Therefore project management is truly a science
to deal with systematic and cost effective presentation, execution, re-evaluation and reporting
of an important activity. The project managers are the unsung heroes who in most cases stand
outside the public eye but without whose talents and skills most neat ideas would never amount
to anything. They are responsible for giving shape to products, systems and things, which we
take for granted or marvel.
The rapid pace of change in technology has led to products or processes evolving at an
accelerated pace. This accelerated pace has a direct impact on the frequency and conduct of
projectswhether projects to develop products, systems and processes that compete in local,
domestic or international markets. The projects may be anything from developing of a software,
installation of an equipment, creation and developing new ways of meeting demand for energy,
recreation, housing, communications, transportation and food or to resolve problems of pollution
and disease.
This book attempts to explain the concepts of project management in a simple and effective
manner. The need for the book was felt to provide a comprehensive coverage of concepts of
projects and bridge the gap between the students and professionals. It gives a grasp over modern
trends and techniques of project management. This book is useful for those involved in
preparation and evaluation of feasibility study and those involved with selection, implementation
and evaluation of projects. The presented material contains complete syllabus of Project
Management subject to be taught at IIIrd year B Tech, Mechanical and Production Engineering
of UPTU Lucknow.
The chapters 1 and 2 are concerned with giving an overview of the characteristics and
concepts of project management. The next two chapters involve the project identification,
screening, selection and planning at a system level. Feasibility study forms an important part
of project selection and planning has been discussed in detail. Chapter 5 involves structuring
and controlling the most important resource of project, which is human resource. The role of
project manager in project direction, coordination and control is explained in the next chapter.
Network concepts are an integral part of project management to understand the entire project.
Various types of questions and case study has been incorporated to explain the practical aspects
and utility in solving complicated problems.
In addition to above, the application of total quality to project management has been
discussed. The relevance of inventory control, material requirement planning and supply chain
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iv Preface
management has been elaborated. With the growing application of computer-based techniques
and the use of Internet, e-commerce has opened new visas for exploration in web based project
management. A chapter based on the application of information technology in projects has
been introduced keeping in view the future of project management.
Constructive criticism and suggestions will be appreciated for enhancing the utility of the
book.
R.C. Mishra
Tarun Soota
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CONTENTS
Preface .......................................................................................................... (iii)
1. Project Management Overview ................................................................................1-16
1.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Challenges in Project Management ................................................................ 2
1.3 Role of Liberalization and Globalization ......................................................... 4
1.4 Foreign Investment in Projects ...................................................................... 5
1.5 Project Imports and Import Substitution ....................................................... 6
1.6 Forms of International Business .................................................................... 7
1.7 Public Sector Projects ...................................................................................... 7
1.7.1 The Importance of 3Es ....................................................................... 8
1.7.2 Disadvantages of Public Corporations ................................................ 9
1.8 Project Management Vs Functional Management ...................................... 10
1.9 Types of Production Systems with Different Degrees of Flexibility ........... 13
1.10 Comparison of Project and Typical Business ............................................... 13
1.11 Zero Date of a Project .................................................................................... 13
1.12 Pre-project Activities ..................................................................................... 14
1.13 Project Activities ............................................................................................ 14
1.13.1 Advance Actions ................................................................................ 14
1.14 Performance Indicators ................................................................................. 15
2. Concepts of Project Management .......................................................................... 17-30
2.1 Project Characteristics .................................................................................. 17
2.2 Project Objectives and Functions ................................................................. 19
2.3 Project Classification ..................................................................................... 20
2.4 Project Life Cycle ........................................................................................... 21
2.4.1 Project Life Cycle Curve ................................................................... 22
2.4.2 Project Visibility ................................................................................ 25
2.4.3 Project Cycle for an Engineering Project ........................................ 25
2.5 Project Management Definition .................................................................... 26
2.6 Elements of Project Management ................................................................. 26
2.7 Techniques for Project Management ............................................................ 27
2.8 Roles and Attributes for Project Manager .................................................... 28
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3. Project Selection and Initiation ............................................................................. 31-60
3.1 Government Regulations ............................................................................... 31
3.2 Project Identification ..................................................................................... 32
3.2.1 Tapping of Project Ideas ................................................................... 32
3.2.2 Identify Potential Problems ............................................................. 32
3.3 Project Screening and Selection Criteria ..................................................... 33
3.3.1 Preliminary Screening ...................................................................... 33
3.3.2 Selection Criteria .............................................................................. 33
3.4 Investment Alternatives Evaluation ............................................................. 34
3.4.1 Payback Put off or Recoupment Period ........................................... 34
3.4.2 Net Present Value ............................................................................ 35
3.4.3 Average Rate of Return .................................................................... 35
3.4.4 Internal Rate of Return .................................................................... 35
3.4.5 Benefit to Outflow Ratio ................................................................... 36
3.4.6 Accounting Rate of Return ............................................................... 36
3.4.7 Dept Service Coverage Ratio ............................................................ 36
3.4.8 Social Profitability (SP) ..................................................................... 36
3.4.9 Break Even Analysis ......................................................................... 36
3.4.10 Profitability Index ............................................................................. 36
3.5 Establishing the Project Scope ...................................................................... 37
3.6 Project Feasibility Report ............................................................................. 39
3.6.1 Detailed Project Report (DPR) ......................................................... 40
3.7 Market and Demand Study ............................................................................ 40
3.8 Primary and Secondary Information ............................................................ 42
3.8.1 General Sources of Secondary Information ..................................... 42
3.8.2 Primary Information ......................................................................... 43
3.9 Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) ............................................................. 43
3.9.1 Approaches to SCBA ......................................................................... 44
3.10 Project Cost Estimates .................................................................................. 45
3.10.1 Accuracy of Costs with Types of Estimates ..................................... 46
3.10.2 Comparison of Cost Estimation and Costing (Cost Accounting) ..... 47
3.11 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) .......................................................................... 48
3.11.1 CBA Might Include the Following .................................................... 48
3.11.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis Steps .............................................................. 49
3.12 Source of Finance .......................................................................................... 50
3.13 Financial Structure ........................................................................................ 51
3.14 Financial Institutions .................................................................................... 52
3.14.1 National Financial Institutions ........................................................ 52
3.14.2 Foreign Financial Institutions ......................................................... 53
3.15 Demand Forecasting ...................................................................................... 53
3.15.1 Time Series Projection Method ........................................................ 54
3.15.2 Casual Method ................................................................................... 54
3.15.3 Linear Trend Using Least Square Method ...................................... 54
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6.4 Progress Measurement ................................................................................. 89
6.4.1 Project Expedition and Follow-up ..................................................... 90
6.5 Project Control through Line of Balance (LOB) ........................................... 90
6.6 Committed Activity Targets and Reserved Activity Targets
(CATS and RATS) ........................................................................................... 91
7. Contracts Management .......................................................................................... 93-105
7.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 93
7.2 Contracts ........................................................................................................ 93
7.3 Tender ............................................................................................................ 95
7.3.1 Factors Effecting Tender .................................................................. 95
7.4 Tendering Procedure ..................................................................................... 95
7.4.1 Pre-qualification of Contractor ......................................................... 95
7.4.2 Preparation of Tender Documents ................................................... 96
7.4.3 Receipt and Evaluation of Tenders .................................................. 96
7.4.4 Selection of Contractor ..................................................................... 96
7.4.5 Sellers Frustrations ......................................................................... 98
7.5 Role of Responsibility, Reimbursement and Risk in Contracts ................... 98
7.5.1 Responsibility or Scope of Work ....................................................... 98
7.5.2 Reimbursement ................................................................................. 99
7.5.3 Risk .................................................................................................... 99
7.6 Types of Contracts ......................................................................................... 99
7.6.1 Turn-key Contract .......................................................................... 100
7.6.2 Piece-Work Contract ....................................................................... 100
7.6.3 Lump-sum Contract ........................................................................ 100
7.6.4 The Cost Plus Percentage Contract ............................................... 100
7.6.5 Labour Contract .............................................................................. 100
7.6.6 EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) ..................... 100
7.7 Types of Reimbursements Vs Types of Contracts ...................................... 101
7.8 Sub-contract ................................................................................................. 101
7.9 Team Building .............................................................................................. 102
7.10 Earnest Money Deposit (EMD) .................................................................... 102
7.11 Retention ...................................................................................................... 102
7.12 Letter of Intent (LOI) .................................................................................. 103
7.13 Ensuring Better Contract Management ..................................................... 103
7.14 Boot Projects ................................................................................................ 103
7.14.1 The Major Components of BOOT Project Include ......................... 104
7.14.2 Projects Suitable for BOOT Contracts ........................................... 104
7.14.3 Advantages of BOOT Projects ........................................................ 104
8. Project Management Performance and Close Out ......................................... 106-117
8.1 Factors Influencing Project Success ........................................................... 106
8.2 Factors Responsible for Project Failure ..................................................... 106
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9.17 Resource Allocation ..................................................................................... 153
9.18 Resource Smoothing .................................................................................... 153
9.19 Illustrative Case Study ................................................................................ 156
10. Material Requirement Planning ...................................................................... 165-175
10.1 Drawbacks of Service Levels and Safety Stock Computations .................. 165
10.2 Type of Inventory ......................................................................................... 165
10.3 MRP Versus Order-point Systems .............................................................. 165
10.4 Aggregate Planning ..................................................................................... 166
10.5 Material Requirement Planning (MRP or MRPI) ....................................... 167
10.6 Capacity Requirement Planning (CRP) ....................................................... 168
10.7 Bill of Materials (BOM) ................................................................................ 169
10.8 Master Production Schedule (MPS) ............................................................ 169
10.9 Benefits of MRP ........................................................................................... 169
10.9.1 Limitations of MRP ......................................................................... 170
10.10 Closed Loop MRP ......................................................................................... 170
10.11 Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRP II) .............................................. 170
10.12 Comparison between MRP-I and MRP-II .................................................... 170
10.13 Enterprise Resource Planning .................................................................... 171
10.13.1 Evolution of ERP ............................................................................. 171
10.14 Supply Chain Management .......................................................................... 173
10.15 Business Process Re-engineering (BPR) ..................................................... 173
10.15.1 The 7 Rs of Re-engineering ........................................................... 173
10.15.2 Principles of Re-engineering ......................................................... 174
10.15.3 The Re-engineering Process ........................................................... 174
11. Internet and E-commerce .................................................................................. 176-188
11.1 History of Internet and WEB ...................................................................... 176
11.2 Internet ........................................................................................................ 176
11.3 Network of Networks .................................................................................. 177
11.4 Common Protocols Used in Internet .......................................................... 178
11.5 Common Use of Internet ............................................................................. 179
11.5.1 Electronic Mail ................................................................................ 179
11.5.2 Usenet ............................................................................................. 180
11.5.3 Telnet .............................................................................................. 180
11.5.4 IRC (Internet Really Chat) .............................................................. 180
11.5.5 File Transfer Protocol ..................................................................... 180
11.5.6 Archie .............................................................................................. 180
11.5.7 Gopher ............................................................................................. 180
11.5.8 Veronica ........................................................................................... 180
11.5.9 World Wide Web ............................................................................. 180
11.6 Internet Address .......................................................................................... 181
11.7 Intranet ........................................................................................................ 181
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12.16.4 There are 3 Forms of Certification ................................................ 204
12.16.5 Eight Steps to ISO 9000 Certification ............................................ 205
13. Information Technology and Future of Project Management ................... 206-212
13.1 Role of Information at Various Stages of Project ....................................... 206
13.1.1 Information at Initiation Stage ...................................................... 206
13.1.2 Information at Planning Stage ....................................................... 207
13.1.3 Information at Execution Stage ..................................................... 208
13.1.4 Information at Control Stage ......................................................... 209
13.2 Computer Project Management System (CPMS) ....................................... 210
13.2.1 Microsoft Project 2000 .................................................................... 211
13.2.2 Project Scheduler ............................................................................ 211
13.2.3 Prism ............................................................................................... 211
13.2.4 Insta-plan ......................................................................................... 212
13.3 Future of Project Management ................................................................... 212
Appendix A: Financial Assistance Application Procedure ............................. 213216
Appendix B: Areas of the Standard Normal Distribution ............................... 217218
Appendix C: The Present Value of One Rupee ................................................... 219220
Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 221
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1
PROJECT MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Project management as a science seems to have evolved around second world war and got
much importance due to various nuclear aerospace and other defense programmes of USA in
1950s and 1960s. Project in simple terms is a collection of activities that are interrelated with
a specific overall purpose. It is an organized endeavour to accomplish a specified non-routine
and low volume task. Although projects are not repetitive they take significant amount of time
to complete and are large scale and complex enough to be recognized as separate undertaking.
Generally the amount of time that an individual or a work center is involved in a project is
greater than it is in a typical manufacturing or service assignment. An operating person may
work only with other operating people on a project that pertains to operations or the same
person may work with a team of people from various functions who are assigned to study and
solve a problem as to perform a task.
Developing and implementing a project requires several resources to be identified,
mobilized and applied effectively to work tasks throughout the project life. Five basic project
resource types can be readily identified Manpower - Machinery Materials MethodsInformation. Project management is concerned with dynamic commitment of above-mentioned
resources to ensure completion of the project.
Managing a project can be a complex and challenging assignment as all the aspects of the
projects may be unique in nature and pose new problems everyday. Since projects are one of
kind endeavour, there may be little in way of experience, normal working relationships, or
established procedure to guide participants.
A project manager may have to coordinate many diverse effects and activities to achieve
the project goals. Persons from various disciplines and various parts of the organization who
have never worked together may be assigned to the projects for various spans of time.
Subcontractors who are unfamiliar with the organization may be brought in to carry to out
major portions of the project. A project may involve thousands of interrelated activities performed
by persons employed by one of several subcontractors or by the sponsoring organization. It is
an instrument of change and therefore unique. Project managers are essentially concerned
with determining, procuring, allocating and utilizing the resources. They need awareness of
the latest technologies and managerial skills to anticipate and handle problems and take people
with them to the successful completion of the project.
Decision-making is essentially a part of project management. Today a project manager
finds a lot of project management tools such as Programme Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT), Critical Path Method (CPM), Quantitative Analysis Method, Decision Support Systems
(DSS), Project quality control techniques, etc. These tools provide addition of information to
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E-Factors
ERP
E-biz
E-learning
E-commerce
E-procurement
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contradictions and challenges. The rapid economic growth of the last few years has put heavy
stress on Indias infrastructural facilities. The projections of further expansion in key areas
could snap the already strained lines of transportation unless massive programs of expansion
and modernization are put in place. Problems include power demand shortfall, port traffic
capacity mismatch, poor road conditions (only half of the countrys roads are surfaced), low
telephone penetration (1.4% of population). Although the Indian government is well aware of
the need for reform and is pushing ahead in this area, business still has to deal with this
situation
In the changed environment customers will have a free choice to select the product of
their liking, with Indian firms competing with foreign firms. The Indian firm needs the
technological dynamism to counter outdated products, inefficient technology and become
internationally competitive.
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Parent Country
Host Country
Licensing Agreement
Parent Country
Primary Know-how
Host Country
Managerial Contact
Parent Country
Host Country
sa
ial l
ter ne
Ma rson
w e
Ra P
Joint Ventures
Parent Country
nd
Host Country
Subsidiaries
Parent Country
Capital Know-how
Host Country
International business has gained prominence in recent years with growth of large
multinational corporations. The transactions include transfer of goods, services, technology,
managerial knowledge and capital to other countries. Multinational Corporations (MNCs) have
their headquarters in one country with their operations in many countries. The educational,
social-cultural/ethical, political-legal and economic environments have a particular impact on
international enterprises. The MNCs have developed different orientations for operating in
foreign countries ranging from ethnocentric (the foreign operation is based on the parent
companys views) to geocentric (the organization is viewed as an interdependent system
operating in many countries that is truly international).
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Feature
Focus
Decisions
Functions
Accumulative of economic
power.
Market segmentation.
Exploit the situation of scarcity.
Contd...
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Performance
Measurement
Accountability
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Functional manager
Who will do the task?
Where will the task be done?
How will the task be done?
How well has the functional input been integrated into the project?
Project Management approach in preference to functional management can be better
appreciated if we consider the following factors:
All work has inter-dependence and inter-relationship with others.
As work in inter-relationships are liable to change with time a static plan may not
work instead it is required to adopt oneself to changed environment without losing
sight of goal.
Project Management requires grouping generalization and flexible approach as opposed
to specialization and division of work.
There is a need for trade-off accepting the lesser than the best for an overall benefit.
In functional specialization the totality of work is often lost sight of, as function at
specialization could mean. Someone only thinks, someone only talks and third person
does the real work with such an arrangement no single individual except the chief
executive can be held responsible for a work from A to Z. This necessarily creates
problems of communication, co-ordination, commitment and control.
Project Management approach is dedicating us to end objective and keeping the totality
in focus all the time. A work can be done better if it is taken up as a whole and
assigned to one responsibility center.
Project Management deals with new, uncertain and risky situations. One cannot be
expected to alternate ones management style to meet the requirements of such
diverse situations all in the same day. Functional management deals mostly with a
stable situation. The expertise needed for each is different
Company working in functional areas often engage themselves in project works. Some of
the advantages of Project Management to companies are Better Control , Better Customer
Relations, Shorter Product Development Time, Lower Program Costs, Improved Quality and
Reliability, Higher Profit Margins, Better Control over program security, Better Project Visibility
and Focus on Results, Improved Coordination among company divisions doing work on projects,
Higher Morale and Better Mission Orientation for employees working on project, Accelerated
Development of Managers due to breadth of project responsibilities
There may also be some disadvantages to functional companies that engage in Project
Management works like: More complex internal operations, Inconsistency in applications of
company policy, Lower utilization of personnel, Higher program costs, More difficult to manage,
Lower profit margins, Tendency for functional groups to neglect their jobs and let the project
organization do everything, Too much shifting of personnel from project to project, Duplication
of functional skills in project organization. The table 1.2 shows the comparison between project
and functional management.
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Phenomenon
Project Management
Functional Management
Line
functions
have
direct
responsibility accomplishing the
objectives; the line commands, are
staff advices.
Secular principle
Superiorsubordinate
relationship
Organizational
objectives
Unity of .
direction
Parity of authority
and responsibility.
Consistent
with
functional
management; the integrity of the
superior-subordinate relationship is
maintained through functional
authority staff service.
Time duration.
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Mass
Production
System
Batch
Type
Job Shop
Type
Project
High Flexibility
Volume
Continuous
Flow
Type
Low Flexibility
The figure given below shows the different types of systems used in practice with their varying
degrees of flexibilities.
Variety
Projects are highly specialized jobs with each project requiring different type of skills.
Lying at high-flexibility end of continuum is the low volume type of operation, often referred to
as project. Each project is unique and different from other project and marks the beginning of
a new chapter. Project can be said to a complex web of things, people and environment. The
business grows with time and indefinite life as long as the product is acceptable in the market.
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QUESTIONS
1. Explain why project management is required.
2. Enlist the challenges in any industrial project.
3. Explain the role of liberalization and globalization in context of project management.
4. Discuss various types of international businesses.
5. Compare private and public sector projects.
6. Differentiate between project management and financial management.
7. Enlist the pre-project activities associated with project management.
8. Highlight the importance of performance indicators.
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2
CONCEPTS OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project Definitions: Project can be defined in the following ways:
Project is an organizational unit dedicated to the allotment of a goal the
successful completion of a development product in time, within specified
budget, in conformance with the pre-determined performance specifications
It is a set of finite activities that are usually prepared only once and have
well designed objectives, using a combination of human and non-human
resources within limits of time
It consists of a series of non-routine, interrelated activities with a goal that
must be completed with a set amount of resources and within a set time
limit.
It is a proposal for investment to create and/or develop certain facilities in
order to increase the production of goods and/or services in a community
during a certain period of time. (UNIDO)
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proposal is approved. For a company executing projects either regularly or for the
first time, it would be necessary for the chief executive to issue what may be called a
project charter soon after project manager is appointed. The charter at its minimum
may define project scope, project goals, name of project manager, and his directing
authority. The project reviewing authority and request co-operation of all concerned
in the execution of the project. An elaborate effort in this direction may produce what
is known as project manual.
These major events in projects are grouped under various heads.
Conception / Identification: Acceptance of necessity, Identification of objectives,
Project formulation
Planning phase/Appraisal phase: Preparation of feasibility report, Appraisal of
feasibility report, Investment decision.
Execution phase of project: Issue of executive order, Implementation of project
Follow up phase/monitoring phase: Project monitoring (data collection information
gathering), Preparation of M.I.S. (Management Information system), Time
management (time control) of project, Cost management (cost control) of project
Feedback and analysis :Issue guidelines to future project, Project Clean up
16. Feasibility Study: Feasibility study of the project is the most exhaustive of all the
planning stage. The project is systematically examined in depth at this stage for
various aspects like technical, financial, economical, commercial, social, managerial
and organizational. The purpose of this study is to examine if the project objectives
are realistic, recommendation in preliminary study are technically sound; beneficial
from financial, economical, social point of view; feasibility from social, cultural,
ecological of view.
Quality of product
Avoiding unproven equipment
Safety during construction
Designing for particular project life
Safety for maintenance
Minimizing start up time
Enhanced public image
Safety during operation
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International
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Definition Proposal
Feasibility Studies
Planning Estimating
Experimenting
Products (Clear)
Concepts (Vague)
Market Needs
Design Development
Prototype Testing
Commissioning
Time (Years/ Months/ Days)
The Table 2.1 below shows the phases, stages and objectives of various projects
Phase
Preparation or
Initiation
Stage
Objective
2. Preliminary selection.
3. Feasibility studies.
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Operation
Source:
United Nations Publication: The initiation and implementation of Industrial Projects in developing
countriesA System Approach
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4. Implementation phase
This phase is marked by execution of project along with its controlling and monitoring.
Major bulk of work (80-85%) of project is done in this phase only, so people want this phase to
start early and finish in earliest possible time. There as is greater need for co-ordination,
monitoring and control with application of all techniques of project management in this phase.
This phase itself being more or less the whole project, every attempt is made to fast track
i.e. overlap the varying sub phases such as engineering, procurement, construction and
commissioning to maximum extent (or) parallel running of phases. Fast tracking can be improved
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Bar chart
Project life cycle
Line of balance (LOB)
Networking techniques (PERT/CPM)
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No individual in our society, howsoever gifted, can be completed by himself, so for our
survival, growth and prosperity we need to supplement each other. This holds goods for any
system and project management is possible only through systems approach. So if one accepts
with humility that role of project manager is that of system integrator, than it is possible to
supplement shortcoming of the project manager. It is the synergy that we need to bank upon
to achieve something and not the energy of a few supermen for completing the giant project or
completing the great task of elevating our standard of living through technoeconomic projects.
QUESTIONS
1. State the project characteristics related to project management.
2. Discuss project objectives and functions briefly.
3. How are the projects classified? Explain in brief.
4. What is the importance of project life cycle? Discuss.
5. Explain project elements used in practice.
6. Discuss the project management techniques.
7. Briefly write the role of a project manager.
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3
PROJECT SELECTION AND INITIATION
The key to success lies in getting into the right business at the right time. Identification of such
opportunities requires imagination, sensitivity to environmental changes and realistic
assessment of what the firm can do. The task is partly structured, partly unstructured, partly
dependent on convergent thinking, partly dependent on divergent thinking; partly requiring
objective analysis of quantifiable factors, partly requiring subjective evaluation of qualitative
factors, partly amenable to control and partly dependant on fortuitous circumstances. The
project takes shape to meet the customers needs for goods and services. The whole concept of
project can be to fit in the terms of finding a gap between customers needs for goods and
services and filling the gap. The objective is to identify the investment opportunities, which are
prima-fascie feasible, and promising, requiring merit examination and detailed appraisal. A
realistic appraisal of corporate strengths and weaknesses is essential for identifying investment
opportunities, which can be profitably exploited. The broad areas of corporate appraisal are
market and distribution, production and operations, research and development, corporate
resources and personnel, and finance and accounting. A promising investment idea enables a
firm/entrepreneur to exploit opportunities in the environment by drawing on its competitive
strengths. Besides the true new ideas, which are based on significant technological breakthrough,
most of the project ideas involve combining existing fields of technology or offering variants of
present product or service.
Before the project initiation there is a need to establish the project scope, time and cost
targets/performance. In this context project feasibility is a device to document the need for the
project and to record potential high-level solutions to solve the business problem at hand
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Sl. no.
Criterion
Accept
Reject
PBP<Target Period
ARR>Target Period
ARR<Target Period
NPV>0
NPV<0
IRR>cost of capital
IRR<cost of capital
BCR>1
BCR<1
Playback Period =
Investment Salvage
Operating advantage per year
C
R
Where P = Playback period in years
C = Original capital investment
R = Annual return expected
The cash flows taken for consideration are based on post tax interest exclusion principle.
When the cash flow varies then PBP is the time taken to recoup the investment. Initially a
target period for PBP is kept on the basis of coat of capital , initial investment, liquidity situation
and risk factor is fixed. If the PBP is lesser than the target period the project / investment is
accepted.
P=
Advantages
It is simple and popular technique. It gives very good importance to the consideration of
the risk element. It is an indicator of the liquidity aspects of the project. It is based on cash
flows. For projects financed with high borrowed money or for firms having problems of cash
where fund is of greatest concern, this method finds wide use. This method is used for projects
with risks and uncertainty. For projects where technological obsolescence is very less.
Disadvantages
It ignores true value of money. The method in no way indicates the profitability of
investment. It dose not consider the whole life of the project. It concentrates on the recovery of
initial investment. Payback period is no guarantee of the success of a project.
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Project cost
Operating life
150
150
150 lakhs
10
15
20 years
Annual income
First
First
First 15
Payback period
10
10
10
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Pre-feasibility study
The chief objectives of a pre-feasibility study are to determine
Promising investment opportunities
Justification for a detailed feasibility study
Aspects critical to project necessitatin g in-depth investigation through functional/
support study such as laboratory trials, pilot plant tests, etc
The pre-feasibility study should examine:
Finding of each facet of project
Project background and history with respect to sponsors
Major determinants and indicators
Market potential and forecast, competitors and their market share
Materials cost and availability
Location and site
Investment requirements
Manpower requirements
It provides rough estimates of cost, means of finance, cost of production, sales revenue,
financial profitability, and social benefits. Based on pre-feasibility study it is determined if
further feasibility study is required.
Feasibility study
After preliminary examination surveying project ideas are examined in more detail. Identifying
the investment opportunities can be an intricate exercise because of variety of constraints,
Initial Screening
NO
Terminate
Analysis
YES
Preliminary Work
Generation of Ideas
Evaluation
Terminate
All activities listed above before financial arrangement, come under the scope of feasibility
study. Project manger may be required to update and validate feasibility report and work as
per stipulation in report. Ideally nothing except project cost estimate (updated because of zero
date shift) must be altered in the report. But changes in report become essential if there is a
dramatic change in project environment.
The guidelines advocated by UNIDO to be kept in mind while conducting feasibility study
are:
Scope of the project
Verification of alternatives and assumptions
Procurement of the data for study
Proposed cost structure
Scheduling the operations
Arranging for local and foreign exchange
Inflation rate
Contingencies and inflation
Accuracies of cost estimates
Regulation and laws governing industry
The project team
Cost studies
Changes in foreign exchange rate
Expansion projects
Capacity (production)
Agencies involved in conducting such study
Capacity (production)
The block diagram given below indicates the steps for market and demand analysis
Demand
forecasting
Collection of secondary
information
Situation analysis of
specification of objective
Characterization of
market
Market
forecasting
Market and demand study requires the information to be gathered from different sources
(primary and secondary) to know the effective demand in the past and present, breakdown of
demand, price, methods of distribution, sales promotion, consumers, supply, competition and
government policy. The objectives must be clearly established for market and demand study.
This may be possible if we consider the following aspects:
Potential and prospective buyers
Current and projected demand
Demand distribution with respect to sales and geography
Break-up of demand
Estimated price and warranty
Channels of distribution
Prospects for immediate sales
Raw material: It is required to establish the availability of raw material through companies
supplying or producing them to avoid unnecessary delay.
Technical study: The entire spectrum of products which include co-products and byproducts known as product pattern has to be determined using the available technology keeping
in mind scale of operation, resources and economy. Process selection is possible by evaluation
of various factors including size of investment, availability of know-how, raw material
requirements, type of process, utility required, indigenous and foreign components required,
disposal of by-products and effluents, etc.
Location study: Proper selection of site and its possession before zero date is necessary
to meet targets relating to time and cost. Normally the financial institutions before sanction of
loan inspect site through team of experts. Consideration for selection of project site may include
the following: cost of land, availability of land, labour factors, approach to site and market, raw
material, transportation, availability of power, incentives, drainage and effluent disposal. The
targets may be missed and even viability of project may be lost if plant site has to be relocated
at later date.
Manpower: Inspite of problem of large unemployment the industry is still on lookout for
skilled manpower. The companies resort to training and upgradation in absence of its skill sets
availability.
Power: Regular feature of irregular power supply will not only cause heavy losses but
may damage plant machinery and equipment. If uninterrupted power supply is not available
company may have to resort to standby generating systems.
Adjustment of the net benefit for the projects impact on income distribution.
Adjustment for the impact of project on merit goods and demerit goods whose social
valves differ from their economic valves.
Every stage of the approach measures the desirability of the project from a different
angle. The financial analysis when done at market prices serves its purpose for private sector
projects. For the public sector project the objective is the maximization of social welfare. Even
for public sector projects financial appraisal is carried out on some lines as private sector, the
difference is that the result are adjusted to reflect the social welfare implications.
1010
1011
1020
1012
1021
1030
1022
1031
1032
Cost estimates for the project are used to assign fund requirement and ascertaining the
economic viability of the project. Inaccurate cost estimate will cause the fund plan to be either
underestimated or overestimated. Underestimated projects cause shortage of funds, which will
in turn lead to suspension of project or considerable delay. Delay in turn will further increase
the overall cost of project spending making it economically less viable or even sick. Overestimated
project may fail to receive approval green signal due to low profitability. It may also dampen
the prospects of other needy projects, which are unnecessarily deprived of funds. So the accurate
cost estimate not only gets the project cleared but also ensures its profitability.
The various costs involved in a project can be grouped under the following sub-heads.
Land and site development
Cost of land, conveyance, leasehold, leveling, development, approach roads
Building and civil works
Main factory/plant, administrative building, laboratory, auxiliary services, godowns, warehouses, severs, drainage
A WBS outline and a dictionary that defines what is in each cost element
Detailed schedules that can later be used to manage the project
Specific references and guidance documents supporting the project
Data sources and references to support the estimating methodology
A glossary that defines abbreviations and terms used in the analysis
The document should accurately support agency recommendations irrespective of its
structure.
Incentive sources.
Unsecured loans
Public deposits
Leasing and hire purchase finance
Shares: There are two types of shares viz. equity/ordinary shares and preference shares.
Equity shares represent contribution made by the owners of business the equity shareholders,
who enjoy the rewards and bear the risk of ownership. Equity shares being risk capital carries
no fixed rate of dividend. Preference shares represent the contributions made by preference
shareholders and the divided paid on it is generally fixed.
Debenture capital: Debentures are instruments for raising long-term debt capital.
Interest to debenture is a statuary obligation irrespective of the financial position. These are of
two broad types
Non-convertible debentures: These are straight debt instruments and typically carry a
fixed rate of interest with a maturity period of 5 to 9 years.
Convertible debenture as the name implies are debentures, which are convertible, wholly
or partially into equity shares at the option of its holders. The conversion period and price are
announced in advance.
Bonds: It is more or less similar to debenture. There is a tendency in India to use the
term bond for public debt securities deposits by the governments and public sector enterprises.
Terms loans: Long term loans (5 to 10 years) are provided by financial institutions and
commercial banks. Terms loans represent secured borrowing, which are very important source
(major source) for financing new project as well as expansion, modernizing and renovation
schemes of exiting firms. There are two broad types of term loans available in India, rupee
terms loans and foreign currency term loans. While the former are given for financing land,
building, civil works, indigenous plant and machinery and so on, the latter are provided for
meeting the foreign currency expenditures towards the import of equipment and technical
know how.
Deferred credit: The suppliers of plant and machinery may offer a deferred credit facility
after getting bank guarantee, under which payment for purchase of plant and machinery can
be made over a period of time.
Incentive source: The government and its agencies may provide financial support as
incentive to certain types of promoters or for setting up industrial units in certain location.
These incentives to certain areas may take the form of seed capital assistance (provided at a
nominal rate of interest to enable the promoter to meet his contribution to the project) or
capital subsidy (to attract industries to certain location) or tax deferment or exemption
(particularly form sales tax) for a certain period.
Unsecured loans: These are typically provided by the promoters to bridge the gap between
the promoters contribution (as required by the financial institutions) and the equity capital, the
promoters can subscribe to.
Public deposits: Represent unsecured borrowing from the public at large.
Leasing and hire purchase finance: Represent a form of borrowing different from
conventional term loans and debenture capital.
Simple linear regression fits a line to a series of points between dependent and independent
variable
X on Y
Y on X
Y= a+b,X
X= a+b,Y
Problem: The demand for a product varies with time as given in table below.
Calculate the demand for the product in 14th year.
Time (yrs) (T)
10
11
12
13
Demand (Y)
10
13
14
17
18
18
19
20
22
23
22
24
24
25
Solution
Table 3.3
T (Time)
Y (Demand)
T.Y
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
10
13
14
17
18
18
19
20
22
23
22
24
24
25
0
13
28
51
72
90
114
140
176
207
220
264
288
325
T = 91
= 269
T
n
91
= 6.5
14
T
n
269
= 19.21
14
.. =1198
T2
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
T2 =819
Project Y Estimates
Table 3.5 Cost estimates
Period (year)
450
300
500
350
500
350
550
400
550
400
550
400
550
400
550
400
550
400
10
550
400
Project Z Estimates
Table 3.6 Cost estimates
Period (year)
1000
700
1000
700
1000
700
1000
700
Which projects should the company accept? What drawback of this selection criterion are
highlighted by this problem?
Solution
The net revenue of the projects can be summarized as given below:
Year
X (Rs. Thousand)
Y (Rs. Thousand)
Z (Rs. Thousand)
250
150
300
200
150
300
150
150
300
100
150
100
150
50
150
50
150
150
150
10
150
Year
Project A
Cost inflow
(Rs. Thousand)
Year
Cash outflow
(Rs. Thousand)
Project B
Cost inflow
(Rs.Thousand)
100 (investment)
90
50
80
50
70
50
60
55
Cash outflow
(Rs.Thousand)
120 (investment)
110
100
110
100
120
100
50
130
100
50
150
100
150
110
150
110
120
110
120
110
The organization appraising these projects uses a 90% rate of discount. What will be its
decision on this projects A and B, if the value criterion is used ? Funds are not a constraint.
Solution
Since funds are not a constraints, let us consider the project one by one.
Project A: first convert the estimated cash flows into net cash flows. Outflows: will be
given a ve sign and the inflows a +ve sign.
Table 3.9 Net cash flow
Year
100
+40
+30
+20
+10
+5
Then convert all the net cash flows to the base year (0) the present factor (P V Fi, n) for
the various years corresponding to a discount rate of 9% are obtained.
Table 3.10 Present value
Year
P V Fi, n
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
100
1.0000
100
+40
0.9174
+36.696
+30
0.8417
+25.251
+20
0.7722
+15.444
+10
0.7084
+7.084
+5
0.6499
+3.250
Year
120
+10
+10
+20
+30
+50
+40
+40
+10
+10
Convert all the net cash flow value of the base year zero (0). The present value factors (P
V Fi, n) for the various year are corresponding to the discount at the rate of 9%. Present rate
of net cash flow during a year n = net cash flow during the year n x PVFi,n where I = 9%. The
summation of the above value over the entire life of the project (including year zero) given the
Year
(1)
P V Fi, n
(3)
0
1
120
1.0000
120.000
+10
0.9174
9.174
+10
0.8417
8.417
+20
0.7722
15.444
+30
0.7084
21.252
+50
0.6499
32.495
+40
0.5963
23.852
+40
0.5470
21.880
+10
0.5019
5.019
+10
0.4604
4.604
The NPV of project B being + ve, the project is accepted. Since NPV criterion, given due
consideration to the time value of money, it is a theoretically sound criterion under the given
assumption.
QUESTIONS
1. Explain the role of Government in project selection.
2. Highlight the importance of feasibility study in project management.
3. What are the steps required in project identification? Explain briefly.
4. Discuss the contents of detailed project report.
5. For project selection discuss the requirements of information.
6. What is the impact of social cost benefit analysis on project selection? Explain.
7. Name the financial institutions, which help the development of projects.
4
PROJECT PLANNING: A SYSTEMS APPROACH
4.1 PROJECT PLANNING
Planning is a primary function of management, which involves deciding in advance the future
course of action. The process of project planning is to define each major task, estimate the time
and resources required and provide a framework for management review and control. Planning
will involve identifying and documenting scope, tasks, schedule, risks, quality and staffing
needs. An adequate plan process and project plan will ensure that resources and team members
will be identified so that the project will be successful. During the planning process the sequence
and the logical inter-relationships between the various activities may be established. The process
of project planning involves the following steps:
1. Defining the objectives and goals of the project
2. Making forecasts for achieving the goals
3. Identifying the various course of actions through available alternatives and
assumptions.
4. Evaluating the resources available
5. Evaluating and selecting the available course of action for achieving the desired
objective under the resource constraints.
The basic tasks in planning process include the following:
Defining the technical approach used to solve the problem
Defining and sequencing the tasks to be performed and identifying all deliverables
associated with the project
Defining the dependency relationship between tasks
Estimating the resources required to perform each task
Scheduling of all tasks to be performed
Defining the budget for performing the tasks
Defining the functional area used to execute the project
Estimating each tasks duration
Identifying the known risks in executing the project
Defining the process used for ensuring quality
Defining the process used for specifying and controlling requirements
Work Statement
Requirements Documents
Solutions Documents
Specifications Documents
Design Schedules
Detail Design Documents
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
CONVERSION
Policy and
Project
Planning
FORMULATION
Resource
Mobilization
Project
Implementation
IMPLEMENTATION
Project
Services,
Products
and Results
Evaluation
Development
Impacts
EVALUATION
Fig. 4.1 The conversion model showing phases of proect management activity
Sub-project
Task
Sub-task
Work
Package
Task
Sub-task
Work
Package
Sub-project
Sub-task
Work
Package
Work
Package
Task
Sub-task
Sub-task
Work
Package
Task
Sub-task
Work
Package
Work
Package
Sub-task
Sub-task
Work
Package
Work
Package
limited number of resources to perform tasks. A project managers primary role is to find a way
to successfully execute a project within these resource constraints. Resource planning is
comprised of establishing a team possessing the skills required to perform the work (labor
resources), as well as scheduling the tools, equipment, and processes (non-labor resources)
that enable the staff to complete the project.
1. Labor Resources Labor resources are also known as human resources. There are
several parts to planning for the labor resource needs of a project:
Determining the resource pool
Estimating the skill requirements
Determining the size of the project team
Resource profiles
Forming the team
Creating resource charts
2. Non-labor Assets These resources include capital, infrastructure, etc.
Input
Comment
Scope
Each element of scope should have a defined schedule that depicts how it will be
delivered
Agency
Resources
The resources assigned to the agency will constrain schedules. The impact may
be through either the number/availability or skill level of the team.
Strategy
Strategy refers to the business process or lifecycle process chosen for the project.
Additionally, strategies will affect contracting or subcontracting, release strategies,
or any aspect of the project that requires optional approaches ; for example, make/
buy alternatives.
Assumptions
Assumptions form a premise for a chosen solution; they are important in that they
provide the rationale for a given solution. Assumptions should be reviewed
continually, as they may be risks to the project (one may assume that the product
will be available for test on a given date or that requirements will not change).
Constraints
Constraints are project attributes that restrict certain aspects of the project. Examples
are :
Time-frame limits; Funding limits; Resource limits; Technical limits
Historical data
Risk
Dependencies
Change
All changes in scope, strategy, and work effort should be used to develop and
maintain schedules.
QUESTIONS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
5
ORGANIZING HUMAN RESOURCES
Once the project proposal has been finalized and goals are set, the project manager has to act
to achieve these goals. Manager is expected to execute the project work, which is inter-disciplinary
in nature with the help of his subordinates. Both internal and external means can be exploited
for implementation. For the different category of works specialist have to be employed. Therefore
proper manpower restructuring is essential at this point. If the right person is not assigned to
the right work, it will suffer. While assigning the work individuals qualification and experience
must be examined critically. In the process certain portion of work contents can be delegated
for quick action.
5.1 DELEGATION
Before delegating the authority the manager must examine what to delegate, when to delegate
and how to delegate. Delegation is the entrusting of task to the subordinates. It becomes
essential, as the manager cannot be expected to be at more than one place and doing more than
one thing simultaneously. Project manager is expected to be delegating authority commensurate
with tasks assigned to him. Delegation may be individual or institutional.
5.3 MOTIVATION
Project manager must be aware of the needs of the project personnel and should try to fulfill
them. Project managers must motivate by providing a feeling of pride or satisfaction, security
of opportunity, security of approval, security of advancement, security of promotion, security of
recognition, means of doing better job, not a means of keeping a job. The main theories for
motivation are Moslows theory, ERG theory, Theory X and Theory Y, etc which have been
explained below.
Self-Actualization
Esteem Needs
Social Needs
Safety Needs
Physiological Needs
authority is eliminated. The general flow of authority can be explained with the help of pyramid
and the block diagram shown below:
PRESIDENT
VICE PRESIDENT
TOP MANAGEMENT
General Manager
DIRECTOR
Departmental
Heads
MIDDLE
MANAGEMENT
DIVISION
Superintendents
LOWER
MANAGEMENT
PROJECT
DRIVEN
Foreman
DEPARTMENT
First Line
Supervisor
SECTION
Workers
NON- PROJECT
DRIVEN
LABORER
LEGEND
FORMAL AUTHORITY
FORMAL Or INFORMAL
AUTHORITY Or
INFORMATION FLOW
Departmental
Manager
Departmental
Manager
Engineering Division
Civil
Mechanical
Commercial Division
Electrical
Most companies tend to use this arrangement when project management is used for first
time in the company, as this does not require much change in the working of the organization.
A specialist in project management can be hired under this system who is well versed with the
tools and techniques of project management. His task will be to advise on various functions
like schedules, budgets, and techniques but the final decision will rest with functional groups.
The specialist may act as single focal point regarding communication between various functions
and company. He may carry out services like collection and transmission of data, maintain
records, measure progress, analyze and prepare progress reports.
The limitation in this arrangement is that the project manager is not entitled to direct or
issue instruction to workforce and he is expected to take the responsibility without any authority.
The direct communication with the workforce should be encouraged to take advantage of this
arrangement.
V.P. President
V.P. Engineering
V.P. Marketing
V.P. Administration
F
PM
Project Manager
Manager
Senior Manager
Engineer
Functional Manager
A1
B1
C1
A2
B2
C2
A3
B3
C3
Some of the advantages of a pure matrix organization are as follows. It enables project
control over all resources, including cost and personal. Policies can be set up independently
provided that they do not contradict company policies. Authority to commit company resources
by scheduling rests with the project manager. Rapid responses are possible to changes, conflicts
and needs. Each person can be shown a career path even at the end of project. Key people can
be shared thereby minimizing the costs. Strong technical base can be developed with knowledge
being available for all projects on an equal footing. Better balance is possible between time,
cost, and performance. Rapid development of specialists and generalists occurs. Authority and
responsibility are shared.
Some of the disadvantages of a pure matrix organization are as follows. It enables
multidimensional informational flow and work flow. Reporting to multiple managers with
continuously changing priorities. Management goals may differ from project goals. Functional
Project
Task Force
Engineering
Engineering
Procurement
Construction
Task Force
Construction
Central
Procurement
Central
Construction
Central Engineering
In another mode, while under obligation to the project manage for all project direction,
they are constrained to follow home organizations policies and procedures. If project manager
directions are asking violation of functional policies, the task force notifies both functional
head and project manager. The dotted lines in figure indicate relationship between functional
staff and functional manager, while other lines show project manager authority. Large and
complex project involvement of multiple specialists from same discipline, while in small projects
one specialist may cater for multiply disciplines.
specialists who are capable to function independently without any support. The project manager
should be a very senior person to justify delegation of so much authority by the company.
Besides it may help to project manager to spend more time on administrative work besides
main core activities. Therefore either total projectization or task force arrangement appear to
be best arrangement for executing most projects, as project objectives get primary attention
and project manager is delegated authority commensurate with the responsibility he has to
undertake.
Chief Executive
X Y Z Project
Engineering
Finance and
Accounts
Engineering
Commercial
Finance and
Accounts
Personal and
Administration
Commercial
Personnel and
Adminstration
Functional Organization
Matrix Organization
Relative
Influence
Dual Influence
Project Organization
Project Influence in
decision-making
Weak
matrix
Strong
matrix
No Coordinator
Separate Teams
Confining to only specific fragments of the work by functional people may lead to a grave
impact on the project as well as the organization. The decision making process is slowed down
by practice of passing the buck and waiting for replies, which may jeopardize the whole project.
The linking effect in functional structures often delays the important project decisions from
being made or prevents such crucial decision to arrive at that ultimately hampers the total
project. The lack flexibility and responsiveness that is mandatory in a dynamic project
environment often leads to sluggish performance of tasks.
Sl.No.
Type of Organization
Authority
Accountability
1.
No accountability
2.
Consultant as project
manager
No decisions; makes
recommendations
No accountability
3.
Project management as
staff function
No accountability
4.
Matrix organization
Decides on what is to be
done at what cost
5.
Task force
6.
QUESTIONS
1. What is delegation? What, when and how to delegate? Explain.
2. How important is documenting project authority? Explain.
3. When motivation helps in project management? Explain.
4. Discuss the types of organization structures used in practice.
5. Explain the relationship between authority, responsibility and accountability.
6. Explain the duties of a project manager.
7. What are the techniques used for training project manager.
6
PROJECT DIRECTION, CO-ORDINATION AND
CONTROL
6.1 WORK SCHEDULE
To ensure proper and smooth working of a project it should be scheduled. The work schedule
should cover initial operation as well as installation period. To avoid losses arising from idle
capacity and deterioration of stocks of material, schedule should be drawn up with care and
realism so that the commissioning of plant is reasonably synchronized with the availability of
the basic input. The purpose of work schedule is to:
Anticipate problems likely to arise during installation phase and suggest possible
means for coping with them.
To establish the phasing of investments taking into account the availability of finances.
To develop a plan of operations covering the initial period (running in period)
Any discrepancy in schedule may result in lack of input like raw material and power in
adequate quality when plant is ready for commissioning or plant is not ready when the raw
material arrives. Preparing a schedule requires consideration of following: type of schedule,
identification of measurable milestones, estimation of task durations, defining priorities,
determining task relationships, identification of lag between related tasks, define of the critical
path, documenting of the assumptions, identification of the risks and review of the results.
Since it is the responsibility of project authorities to ensure implementation they may assume
schedule to suit themselves. But since the project authorities stake in any industrial unit may
be only 10% of the investment, it is the financial institutions that will need to be convinced
about the reasonableness of the estimate. Past experience may not help in changed environment,
so schedule has to be modified to reflect the strategy for indigenization and Indian industrial
conditions including productivity.
Milestones pertaining to a point in time and should be used as management checkpoints
to measure accomplishment of the schedule. The number of tasks and milestones are to be
identified to relate to what is known about the product, the level of risk, and the level of detail
required of management. The result is a listing of tasks and milestones required to deliver the
product. The completion of key actions is denoted by milestones, which are unique to each
project. A completion has no duration,. for example, deliverables often are represented as
milestones, while the effort to produce the deliverable is referred to as a task.
Type/Level of Effort
Corntrol
Coordination
Direction
Initiation/Start up Period
Production Period
Closing Period
The project can be divided into three periods according to the management efforts schedule
which are listed below:
1. Initiation/Start-up period: requires lot of direction and co-ordination with little or no
control.
2. Production period: once the project stabilizes the need of direction reduces, with
co-ordination and control gaining predominance over direction.
3. Closing period: In this period the need for control reduces, with virtually no direction.
Co-ordination plays a lead role for achieving results.
So for ensuring smooth progress of project and its successful implementation project
direction, co-ordination and control are all required at some time but in right proportions and
at right time, which has to be decided by the project manager.
Communication
It is said that for every bit of action there must be a communication and for every bit of
communication there must be feedback communication. According to peter Ducker 60 percent
of management problems are caused in whole or in part by faulty management communication.
A two-way communication is not merely passing a message either top-down or bottom-up but it
includes understanding of the message by the recipient. If the message does not get understood
it cannot be effective communication. The receiver similarly has a responsibility for clarification
and confirmation of his understanding. Communication becomes faster and effective with the
use of latest technology. Communication devices are available to the user to bridge the gap like
telex, telephone, hotlines, courier, Internet, etc.
WD D + W P P + WC C
= B%
WD + W P + WC
W A A + W B B + WC C
= P%
W D + W P + WC
20 30
40 50
60 70 80
90 100
Basic Engineering
Engg for
Procurement
Line of Balance
Engg for
Construction
Delivery at Sight
Actual Progress
Committed Schedule
Progress
Construction
Life cycle curves can be fitted into any project duration to reflect requirement of project
and are drawn on percent progress vs. percent duration axis. As seen in the figure of LOB all
areas except basic engineering are behind the schedule, but the area, which requires expediting,
is engineering for procurement. This requires immediate steps to prevent delay, in form of
release of requisition quickly.
RAT Schedule
Mile-stones
CAT Schedule
Time
If the achievement of key milestones is delayed beyond the RAT schedule then only
slippage will be accepted for reporting to financial institution and general public. The CAT and
RAT schedule should be revised every time the cost estimates are revised so that a
correspondence between cost and time schedule is maintained. With each revision the gap
between the CAT and RAT will get progressively reduced. The CAT schedule at each revision
will be based on actual commitments and information as available upto that stage the RAT
schedule will add some allowance to the extent of inaccuracy anticipated at that stage.
QUESTIONS
1. Discuss work schedule in context of project management.
2. Enlist the importance of Bar chart in project management.
3. Write the steps required for project direction.
4. How project control is exercised in project management?
5. How lone of balance helps in project management? Discuss briefly.
6. Explain the significance of Committed Activity Targets (CATS) and Reserved Activity Targets
(RATS).
7. Explain the significance of work breakdown structure for project measurement.
7
CONTRACTS MANAGEMENT
7.1 INTRODUCTION
Contract is an arrangement for acquiring authority over the external organizations for
participation in the execution of the project. There is a trend in project management to buy
from outside in case of excess work, need for specification, know-how or if it is possible to make
it better qualitatively and economically. Since an external party is not bound by the in-house
organizational discipline, a business contract is required for an assured behavior from the
members of external organization. It may be required in an environment where authority
relationships and responsibility delineations are unclear or inexistent. The survival of a company
depends how wisely it selects its vendors and maintains good relations with them so that
project is commissioned without time overrun and cost overrun.
Contracting is based on the principle that throughout the world, large and small industries
are essentially interdependent, as it is not economically viable for any large unit to produce its
entire requirement. Hence there is a need to subcontract or buy from outside source; particularly
subassemblies and machinery. It is generally a subset of every project without which no project
can be completed unless it is proprietary firm or small in nature.
The following techniques are generally used for making purchases. Spot purchases are
resorted to in case of extreme urgency. The tender may be invited from one reliable supplier
when purchasing monopolistic items, when the quality is of extreme importance or for purchasing
C class items (e.g. clips, pins, pencils, etc.) required urgently. This is known as a single tender.
Tender may be published in newspapers, trade journals, magazines etc., for procuring materials
of desired specifications. This system gets wide publicity, as it is open to every body. The
vendor has to deposit an earnest money with the tender information. It is also called as open or
press tender. Representatives of various sales organizations often approach various organizations
to register themselves as vendors. In this system few reliable or registered vendors are written
letters to send the price and other details for a particular commodity. After receiving tenders
from vendors they are opened on due date and comparative statement is prepared. It is also
called as closed or limited tender:
7.2 CONTRACTS
All projects cannot be executed with in-house resources and project manager has to requisition
extraorganizational resources for project execution. Such an agreement can be termed as
contract and authority so acquired is contractual authority. If this authority is acquired in
house, through contract then it is internal contracting. All other contracts for the acquisition
of authority can be termed as business contracts. Business contract is an agreement between
two or more parties in writing, to do or not to do certain things. It is enforceable by law and
legal consideration for payment in form of money.
Offer
Acceptance
Agreement
Contract
Simple Notice Inviting Tender (NIT) must be issued to select parties who are in similar
business of contracting, or notice may be published in newspaper offering the opportunity to
serve the project under defined conditions and rules. The NIT (notice inviting tenders) will act
as an offer to public who may be interested in rendering the requisite service under preset
conditions. The procedure of NIT as shown above, is generally followed in any contract before
reaching the pre-qualification stage.
The format for Notice Inviting Tender (NIT) is given below:
Table 7.2 NIT
XYZ PORT TRUST
MARINE DEPARTMENTXYZ-100001
Rs. 1500/- in
person.
Rs. 1700/- by
post. Spare
copy
Rs. 500/-
Sale period
Date of
receipt
Date of
opening
30-01-03
15.30Hrs.
2.5% of rate
quoted
subject to the
maximum of
Rs. 1.00 Lacs
Cost of tender
document
30-01-03
15.30Hrs.
E.M.D
0301-03
T0
23-01-03
Contract
period
Providing
pilotage
operations for
vessels calling
at XYZ Port on
contract basis
2 Years
Tender
No
Name of the
work
M
100/8/2002/Tech
Sealed tenders are invited in two cover bids from qualified and experienced firms for
carrying out pilotage perations for vessels calling at XYZ Port on contract for a period of two years.
The tender document can be had from the office of the Deputy conservator, XYZ Port Trust, Administrative Building
XYZ 100001 with a request in writing on payment of Rs. 1500/-(Separe Copy Rs. 500/-)either by cash or demand draft
in favour of Financial Adviser & Chief Accounts Officer, XYZ Port Trust, XYZ 100001. For further details, visit the
port website www.xyzport.com before applying for tender document
Deputy Conservator.
Contracts Management 95
7.3 TENDER
It is an offer to carry out the service with details description of terms and condition. A tender or
quotation is in the form of a written letter or a published document (in news paper). The aim is
to find price for procuring certain materials or to get a particular work done within the desired
period and under specified conditions.
What are the pre and post qualification for being eligible to bid?
What are the terms of the notice calling for tenders?
Is it a single tender, a limited tender or global tender.
Is it a sealed or open tender?
What is the validity of the offer?
Is there a repeat option?
Is it a rate-contract tender?
Or is the bid - a one time bid
Are there pre-award meeting.
Deviation permissible under the bid.
Is there bid guarantee.
Does the tenderer lease with the authorities concerned or is it the purview of project
authority.
Who is going to handle the matters of octroi entry tax, custom, demurrages and
transit loss?
Contracts Management 97
buyers mistakes. It is necessary to educate the supplier with a view to improve his performance.
It is desirable to compare one vendors performance with other to improve the overall reliability.
Just as buyer tries to rate the supplier, seller also rates the buyer with regard to his authority,
technical knowledge, professionalism, and commitment to promise. Purchase department has
a sole responsibility for the choice of supplier and placing the order. Hence it is necessary to
access the vendors performance on an objective basis, based on price, delivery, quality and
service aspects, in order to fulfill the objective of getting a quality product at minimum costs.
Unless the vendor sends material of proper quality, all the previous efforts and time spent by
the buyer become useless and delays while the replacement and settlement causes loss. The
technical, managerial, financial, personnel, and service aspects are must for making vendors
rating.
The following things should be kept in mind for vendor rating:
Vendors reputation as a reliable and financial strong company.
Suppliers proven integrity by past performance.
Suppliers commitment for warranty, guarantee and quality.
Suppliers cost reduction programmes by using scientific method.
Labour management relationship in the sellers plant.
Adequate design and development wing for technological challenges.
Suppliers capability for analytical engineering, installation and commission
engineering.
Capacity to train buyers engineer.
Ability to meet challenging and new task by technical leadership.
Research efforts leading to general advances.
Quality to the after- sales- service and spare parts availability.
Dependability and reasonable price to other sales-service.
Ability to provide maintenance contract needs of the buyer.
Assurance and conformance of minimum delivery time schedules.
Reserve production facilities for emergency requirements.
Supplier diverting to other customer in terms intended for one.
Vendor not becoming insolvent after taking money.
Selling a range of full time of related items.
Credit availability and financial arrangement of seller.
Local contracts and their technical competence to help.
Suppliers reputation enhancing product sales of buying firm.
Vendors capacity to provide selling aids, drawings etc.
Managerial effectiveness of suppliers organization ownership pattern, and
professionalisation of personnel.
Status and operational reliability of sellers plants.
Financial status of supplier, certified by bankers.
Record of labour disputes at sellers plant and their impact on buyers requirement.
Vendor Difficulties
The large range, variety, sizes and number due to technological upgradation, forces the
vendors to be highly selective in stocking the spares leading to customer dissatisfaction.
Contracts Management 99
7.5.2 Reimbursement
This is more important for contractor than the owner. The type of reimbursement can be
mainly lump-sum or cost plus. Generally the owner prefers lump-sum contract since he can
know at very early stage his project liability and also if he is going to be within approved budget
or not. His anxieties will be less. The owners impression that lump-sum contract is more
economical than cost plus may not prove right, since while building detail he has to take
contingencies.
7.5.3 Risk
It is very difficult to forecast the outcome of project in separate parts. The significance of risk
can be understood from the fact that maximum content on contract deals with it. The contract
itself is considered an instrument for transfer of risk from owner to the contractor, which the
contractor resists. But while contractor risks only his fee, owner runs the risk of not having
any plant at all. Only small risks can be covered by insurance, which is not a financial policy.
However most of the risks are usually covered when contracts are awarded through a proven
contracting process.
Owners risk is due to the following factors:
Will the contractor be able to carry out work as per specification
Can the work be completed within quoted cost and time
Will the plant perform at the required level
Will contractor stay on job till its completion
Will contractor co-operate with owner and rectify defects later
Will relationship click
Does he understand his intent fully
Contractors risk is due to the following factors:
Termination of work before its completion
Prompt payments and making of projects
Reimbursement for extra claims honoured
Penalization for failures beyond his control
Interruptions in progress and change of scope
Compensation for pure escalation
licensers through the EPC contractor or directly by the owner. EPC represents traditional
approach where MSC (multi-split contracts) require project implementation (execution) to be
performed in different phases by different contractors. The turn-key project management may
be said to be its breed.
Type of Contracts
1.
Lump-sum contract
Lump-sum
Negotiated lump-sum
2.
Prime contract
3.
Supply contract
4.
Convertible contract
5.
Hybrid Contracts
Lump-sum + Item rate
Lump-sum + Cost plus
Lump-sum + Fixed rate
7.8 SUB-CONTRACT
The main contractor can entrust some of the work to the sub-contractor when a major work is
undertaken. In that case there can be separate contract between the main contractor and his
sub-contractors. The project promoters are not liable to make any payment to the sub-contractor,
which is the liability of the main contractor. In some sensitive works, if it is felt that subcontract shall not be permitted, suitable clauses to this effect should be incorporated in the
main contract.
7.11 RETENTION
Retention money is generally considered as contractual safeguard and not as a cheap form of
finance. This is the amount of money due to a contractor for executing the contract during the
project implementation. In general the money due to a contractor is not released in lump-sum,
instead is remitted in different installments. Usually the payments are made as follows
10 per cent of the contract amount with the order
80 per cent of the contract amount or work completed, on delivery
5 per cent of the remaining amount on take over
5 per cent, i.e. balance on final acceptance
While fixing the level of retention money one should consider that no higher amount is
retained than what is reasonably necessary. Where the works are completed and taken over in
sections, the retention money should be released on a sectional basis. Therefore it is some
percentage of the bill value, which is retained by the project authorities at the time of making
payments. In general, retention money may be paid after completion of the project or after the
maintenance period. Percentage deduction towards retention varies from bill to bill and ranges
from 5% to 10% of the bill amount.
Factor
Weightage
Performance
Evaluation
Delivery
Quality
Price
40
30
30
17/20
(100 5)/100
100/100
40 17/20 = 34
30 95/100 = 285
30 100/110 =898
QUESTIONS
1. Explain what is contracts management.
2. Discuss the procedure for awarding contracts.
3. Discuss the tendering procedure in brief.
4. On what basis the selection of vender is made. Explain briefly.
5. Explain the role of responsibility, reimbursement and risk in contracts management.
6. Discuss the types of contracts used in practice.
7. How does sub-contacting help in project management? Briefly explain.
8. Enlist the advantages of BOOT projects.
8
PROJECT MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE
AND CLOSE OUT
Ideally a project will be considered totally successful if it gets completed on time, within budget
and performs exactly to the designers specifications. But this is a tall order and many projects
would not meet these requirements. Tradeoffs have to be accepted between various performance
parameters for effective management of a project.
Project may be considered a total failure in following cases:
Abandoned half way or kept in abeyance or completed with a changed concept
Does not produce as specified in terms of quality of produce
Becomes sick soon after going into commercial production
So in real life a project cannot be considered either a total success or a total failure-it
would fit somewhere in between. The investor, project manager and also the public who are
watching the project are all very keen to know how the project is being managed, while in
progress.
of a project. Therefore in most cases they are not able to project or foresee what may happen
and take necessary actions leading to excesses in schedules and budgets.
To avoid any possible difficulty during operation, the operating people may expand the
scope of the project for the sake of unlimited flexibilities, increasing the cost of the project.
Further, the scope never gets frozen fast, as there is no hurry to package it out to any one at
minimum cost. The operating personel have higher priorities for modifications, which would
ensure better operation of the plant rather than completing the project on time bound schedule.
Further the project team with a production background invariably turns out incomplete
purchase specifications and commercial conditions, which are sometimes, exploited by vendors
and contractors to the extent that the extras tend to surpass original price. The owner may find
himself tied to a contract with many of these unscruplous types who are only intersted in
picking up payments without any business ethics. A project in such a case faces acute problem
and does not get completed easily.
Almost similar situation exists at the construction site with the contractors. Since
competitive bidding does not leave much margin to the contractors, they continuously look for
extras to improve their margin. If the owners supervision is not experienced, the contractor
may do certain things, which may not be in the interest of the project. The contractor may
build defensive records with legal overtones, which not only increase the cost burden for the
owner, but also land him in the court. Thus do it yourself concept may become a trap for some
because cost of not having enough experience outweights any apparent advantage in ones handling
the project all on ones own.
to his sub-vendors in a like manner as was done by the owner. Accordingly, sub-vendor data
were getting delayed. However, at owners insistence, a team was sent to the various sunvendors offices and the team collected considerable amount of data across the table. It soon
became clear that the first shipment of equipment from the contractors own shop is not likely
to take place as scheduled unless vigorously expedited by the owner. Regular review meetings
were held with the contractors shop personnel and while manufacturing progress improved, it
became clear that the slippage, which had already occurred, could not be recovered. After
several months had passed, the owner decided to take up the matter with the contractors top
management so that the contract received out-of-order priority.
Interestingly the contractors top management started defending the slippage on the grounds
of delayed signing of contract and non-opening of letter of credit. The owner explained that the
financial institutions would not permit him to lock-up his money by opening a letter of credit
since no material was ready for despatch. The contractor, however, was insistent that the
letter of credit must be opened immediately as per the contract to enable him to step up
progress. He also made a claim that substantial plant and machinery was ready but could not
be despatched due to lack of a letter of credit. The turnkey contractor meanwhile lined up a
new group of professionals as their erection sub-contractor with the idea that a new group
would be cooperative and put in their best effort. This was, however, not acceptable to owner.
Since considerable slippage had already taken place, it was considered essential to have a
contractor with an excellent track record so that a part of the slippage could be recovered
during erection. The erection contract was, therefore, terminatied and a new contractor approved
by the owner was engaged.
The owner opened a letter of credit for the despatch of items declared ready by the turnkey
contractor. Considerable time was spent in settling the terms. Soon the owner discovered that
what the contractor claimed as ready and despatched were not erectable. The contractor
despatched whatever was ready, whereas the owner insisted that the turnkey contractor must
send items in erectable sequence. The contractor, however, maintained that this was not possible
but promised to ensure erectable deliveries as far as practicable. Since material were not
arriving at site as planned the erection contractor did not mobilise as promised. Materials,
which had reached the site, lay idle either because they were not erectable or errection labour
was not available. The situation was intolerable as far as the owner was concerned but he was
not in position either to rectify the situation or cancel the contract.
The turnkey contractor, on the other hand, suggested that the owner should directly take
charge of erection as the situation at the site was a creation of the erection contractor who had
been appoined on the owners recommendation. The turnkey contractor also expressed his
inability to despatch equipment in an erectable sequence, as he was unable to pick-up all the
ready materials from the various sub-vendors with the limited funds that the owner had allowed
him. He threatened that unless a letter of credit for the entire balance amount was opened
immediately he would stop all despatches. But the owner was not convinced that he should
open the balance letter of credit when all the items were not ready for despatch. He felt that if
the letter of credit was opened for the entire balance amount the contractor would take it easy
and his project would get further delalyed. He was convinced that he had not so far received a
fair deal from the contractor and, therefore, there was no reason for him to oblige the contractor.
The contractor, on the other hand, concluded that the owner was short of fund and, therefore,
there was no point in expediting the project.
Correspondence
Meeting notes
Status report
Contract file
Technical documents
Files, program, notes etc.
The hard copy of the records should be stored. The other administrative closure process is
the reassignment and reallocation of agency personnel and equipment that have been used
during the project.
QUESTIONS
1. Discuss the importance of performance measurements used in project management.
2. Enlist the performance indicators used in project management.
3. Explain the approaches used for performance analysis.
4. How can the performance can be improved in project management?
5. Compare the do it yourself and turnkey approach.
6. Discuss the various factors involved in project close-out.
7. Enlist the factors which influence the project success and failure.
9
NETWORK TECHNIQUES
The use of network techniques is very common for any project. It helps in calculating the
project time and can be useful to optimise the overall completion time using the concept of
crashing of activities. The discription presented here will help the readers to control and expedite
the project with optimal cost.
A
B
C
D
E
Milestones are key points or events in time, which can be identified when completed as
the project progresses. They act as reference points for the management. In a Gantt chart, a
bar which represents a long-term job is broken down into several pieces, each of which represents
a identifiable major event. While the milestone was definitely an improvement on the bar
chart, it still had one great deficiency i.e. it did not clearly show the interdependencies between
events. In a milestone chart, the events are in chronological order, but not in a logical sequence.
A natural extension of the milestone chart was network, where arrows connect events in a
logical sequence. This led to the evolution of network techniques.
Feb
11
Apr
Jun
Aug
12
13
Oct
Dec
Feb
11
Apr
Jun
12
Aug
Oct
13
Dec
9.3 SCHEDULING
The network is a graphical representation of the interrelationships among all activities in the
project. Developing the network forces detailed planning of the project and provides a valuable
communication tool. After the activities have been identified and the network has been drawn
the next step is to assign expected time duration to the activities. The expected duration depends
on the planned crew size work method equipment and working hours. A particular level of
resource must be assumed to be available when the work is to be performed. The following
conditions may exist when the estimates are made:
The person who is in charge of an activity or activities assumes that some customary
and reasonable level of resource will be used and specify an expected duration for the
activity. Some completion data is determined. This approach is in keeping with the
theory of Critical Path Method (CPM).
In some actual application a completion time or milestone data is specified and the
estimated amount of resources is adjusted so that the duration will be less than equal
to the desired amount of time. This approach is in keeping with the theory Programme
Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT).
(arrow)
Arrow can have any size or slope. It starts from tail and ends at the head of arrow e.g.,
assembly of parts, mixing of concrete, preparing budget etc.
2. Dummy Activity
(broken arrow)
These activities consume no time. This is introduced to prevent dangling. This happens
when an activity ends with out being joined to end event, so breaking continuity.
Burst event
Network
It is the graphic representations of projects operations composed of activities and events
to achieve objective of project showing planning sequence.
Event (node)
It is a recognizable as particular instant of time and does not consume time or source.
Generally represented on network by circle, rectangle or hexagon.
Activity
It is a task or item that consumes time, money, effort etc. It lies between preceding and
succeeding events.
Float or Slack
The term slack time refers to an event-controlled network and float time refers to the
activity network. But generally float and slack are used inter changeably. Float or Slack is
defined, as amount of time an activity can be delayed without effecting the duration of project.
On a critical path, the float is zero. So float gives an indication criticalness of an activity. An
activity with little float, stands a good chance of delaying project and should be carefully
monitored.
ES (a)
EF (a)
LS (a)
LF (a)
t
TF
FF
IF
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Total Duration
Total duration of time available for any job is the difference between its earliest start time and
latest finish time. If activity 1-2 is considered then.
Maximum Time Available = LF (1-2) ES (1-2)
4
B
D
3
Frequency
a (Optimistic)
te
b (Pessimistic)
If each of the activities of a network have their own b (Beta distribution) with means m1
2...n and standard deviations 12 ...n respectively. Then according to Central Limit Theorem
distribution of time for the completion of the project as a whole will approximately be a normal
distribution curve with mean and variance as given as follows:
Mean = 1 + 2 +...+n .
Variance = (12 + 22 +...+n2).
Zero
Positive
maximum time of the difference between maximum time available to perform activity and
activity duration time or the difference between latest start time and earliest start time.
TS (a) = LS (a) ES (a)
TS (a) = LF (a) (ES (a) + t)
TS (a) = LF (a) EF (a)
{If ES (a) + t = EF (a)}
ES = 9
LS = 14
ES = 20
LS = 24
t = 10
1
LS = 14
= (Earliest time for event J-Earliest time for event I) Activity time for (I-J)
FS (a)
FF
= ES (Succeeding)
FF
= Total Float
ES = 9
LS = 14
t = 10
1
Tail
2
Head
ES = 10
EF = 15
M, 6
P, 6
ES = 18
R, 6
ES = 12
EF = 18
Deviation
Standard Deviation
(45 41.7)
1.2
= 2.75
Activity
Description of Activity
Predecessor Activity
None
C, E
C, E
H, D
Solution
7
D
B
A
1
C
3
4
F
E
5
9
H
10
I
11
J
Predecessor
A
B
A, B
E
Duration (days)
2
4
1
2
3
2
4
EF
LF
4
3
A
0
2
F
5
1
4
D
2
2
4
Critical Pat
Minimum time
1-2-3-4-5
= 9 days
Table 9.2 Activity relationship
Activity
ES
(EF t)
EF
LS
LF
(LF t)
Event Slack
(LS ES)
(LF EF)
On Critical
path
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
A
D
B
C
Requirement of Money
Day 1
Activity
A+B = 50*2
Day 2
Activity
A+B = 50*2
Day 3
Activity
B+C = 50+40
Day 4
Activity
B = 50
Day 5
Activity
D+E = 200
Day 6
Activity
D+E = 200
Day 7
Activity
E = 100
Day 8
Activity
F = 60
Day 9
Activity
F = 60
Activity
Designation
Immediate
Predecessors
Time in
Weeks
Design
21
Evaluate
Test prototype
C, D
C, D
E, F
2
0
11
5
1
11
2
2
2
5
12
8
3
15
5
10
15
10
There are one two critical path throughout network. The first critical path includes activities
A - C - F - G and the second path includes A B D F G. Only activity E is not on critical path
because there is a slack of 3 on it. All other have zero slack.
Table. 9.4 Activity relationship
Activity
ES
EF
LS
LF
Slack
On Critical
Path
21
21
21
Yes
21
26
21
26
Yes
21
28
21
28
Yes
26
28
26
28
Yes
28
33
31
36
No
28
36
28
36
Yes
36
38
36
38
Yes
1-2
1-3
1-4
2-5
3-6
3-7
4-6
5-8
6-9
7-8
8-9
Time
(months) 2
Also find the minimum number of cranes the project must have for its activities 2-5, 3-7
and 8-9 without delaying the project. Then is there any change required in the PERT network.
Solution
Steps
1. Moving forward find EF times (choosing the Maximum at activity intersection)
2. Maximum EF = LF = Critical Path Time.
3. Return path find LF (Choosing the Minimum at activity intersection)
4. Note LF, EF from network (Except activity intersections)
28
28
36
F, 8
C, 7
21
36
38
21
38
A, 21
G, 2
B, 5
D, 2
26
26
28
E, 5
28
33
36
Activity
1 2
Duration
2
ES
0
EF
2
LS
5
LF
7
TF
5
1 3
14
25
11
36
10
10
37
46
10
58
11
12
69
10
15
10
15
7 8
11
12
89
11
14
12
15
Activity
Duration
Predecessor
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
11
3
5
0
2
1
12
6
7
Nil
Nil
Nil
A
A
B
B
C, F
D, H
13
11
E2
6
J
3
D0
A
EF
15
LF
0
11
5
C5
11
5
H6
11
7
17
18
F1
B3
G 12
3
18
The ES, EF, LS, LF, TS, FS have been computed as discuss earlier and entered in the
below.
Table 9.7 Activity relationship
Activity
Duration
ES
EF
LS
LF
TS
Slack
at Head
FS
A
B
C
11
3
5
0
0
0
11
3
5
0
1
0
11
4
5
0
1
0
0
1
0
D
E
F
G
H
I
0
2
1
12
6
7
11
11
3
3
5
11
11
13
4
15
11
18
11
13
4
6
5
11
11
15
5
18
11
18
0
2
1
3
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
3
-
13
16
15
18
12
Weak No
0
J
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Example 8: For Network given find Total Float (TF), Free Float (FF) and Independent
Float (IF)
10
2
3
5
3
Fig.9.14 Network
18
8
10
8
1
0
EF
LF
18
4
5
10
10
15
Activity
12
13
24
25
34
ES
EF
(1+2)
LS
(5-1)
LF
TF Slack at
(4-2) head
(5-3) event
FF Slack at IF
(6-7)
tail
(8-9)
evet
10
8
4
2
10
5
0
0
8
8
4
8
4
10
18
9
0
6
13
8
10
8
10
15
18
15
0
6
5
0
6
0
6
5
0
5
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
0
0
-5 (taken
as 0)
45
10
13
15
18
Activity
12
13
24
34
45
25
3-5
Estimated Time
TO
TM
TP
6
5
4
4
4
4
2
9
8
7
7
10
7
5
18
17
22
16
22
10
8
Solution
Table 9.10 Activity relationship
ES
EF
LS
LF
Float
Variance
12
(6 + 4x9+18) / 6 = 10
10
10
((18 6)/ 6) 2 = 4
13
24
34
45
25
3-5
(5 + 8 x 4 + 17) / 6 = 9
(4 + 4 x 7 + 22) / 6 = 9
(4 + 4 x 7 +16) / 6 = 8
(4 + 4 x 10 + 22) / 6 =11
(4 + 4 x 7 + 10) / 6 = 7
(2 + 4 x 5 + 8) / 6 = 5
0
10
9
19
10
9
9
19
17
30
17
14
16
10
11
19
23
25
25
19
19
30
30
30
16
0
2
0
13
16
((17 5)/ 6) 2 = 4
((22 4)/ 6)2 = 9
((16 4)/ 6)2 = 4
((22- 4)/ 6) 2 = 9
((10 4)/ 6)2 = 1
((8 2)/ 6)2 = 1
Critical Path
=1245
Variance along critical path = 2 = 21-2+ 22-4+ 24-5
= = 221/2 = 4.69
Z = (TS TE)/ = 32 30)/4.69 = 0.42
From Normal Distribution Table: P = 65.54 %
Example 10: Using the three time estimates of the activities draw the AON network for
Computer Design Project and find probability of completing project in 35 weeks.
Solution
Table 9.11 Activity relationship
Activity
Design
Built Prototype
Evaluate equipment
Test prototype
Write equipment report
Write method report
Write final report
Designation
Immediate Predecessors
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
A
A
B
C, D
C, D
E, F
Time Estimates
a
10
4
4
1
1
7
2
b
22
4
6
2
5
8
2
c
28
10
14
3
9
9
2
Designation
Time Estimates
Activity Variances
(b-a) 2/ 6
A
B
C
D
E
F
a
10
4
4
1
1
7
b
22
4
6
2
5
8
c
28
10
14
3
9
9
21
5
7
2
5
8
9
1
2 7/9
1/9
1 7/9
1/9
28
36
C
21
ET = 8
2 = 1/9
21
ET = 7
2 = 27/9
A
ET = 21
2 = 9
F
38
38
ET = 7
2 = 1
ET = 5
2 = 17/9
ET = 2
2 = 1/9
21
36
28
26
ET = 2
2 = 0
28
33
36
Where
a = Optimistic Path
m = Most Likely Time
c = Pessimistic Time
te = Expected Time=(a + 4.m + b)/6
Variances= 2 = (b a)2 /6
The project network was created the same as done previously with the only difference
being that the activity times are weighted averages. We determine critical path as before
taking these values as if they were single numbers. The difference between single time estimate
and three time estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) is in computing probabilities for
completion.
There are two critical paths throughout network. The first critical path includes activities
A, C, F, G the second path includes A, B, D, F, G. Only activity E is not on critical path. Using
Conservative approach we choose largest total variance which needs maximum attention. So
variance associated with activities A, C, F, and G.
For Critical Path 2 = 9 + 2 7/9 + 1/9 + 0 =11.89
Probability of completing project in 35 Weeks.
Expected Completion Time (TE )= 38 Weeks
D = Actual Completion Time = 35 Weeks
2 = Variance =11.89
Z = (DTe)/ ( 2 Critical Path) = (35 38)/(11.89) = 0.87
P (D<35)
= P (Z < 0.87) = P (Z > 0.87) Since symmetric
= 0.5 P (0 < Z < 0.87)
= 0.5 0.31
= 0.19
From the Normal Distribution Tables we find that at value of Z = - 0.87 gives a probability
of 0.19. This means project Manager has only 19 Percent Probability of completing the critical
path ACEG. Since there is another critical path and other paths that might become critical, the
probability of completing the project in 35 Weeks is actually less than 0.19.
32% Area
19% Area
0.87
0.87
Example 11: Consider a project for which the time estimates are given in the table below
construct the PERT network what in the critical path. Find the probability of completing the
project before 23 days.
Table 9.13 Activity relationship
Activity
Most Optimistic T o
Most Pessimistic T
1-2
1-3
2-3
2-4
2-6
12
3-4
10
3-5
4-5
10
4-6
5-6
Solution
First calculating the estimated average expected time and variance of each activity.
T = 20.83 Days
Z = 1.11
Z = 1.11
PERT
CPM
1.
2.
Event oriented.
Activity oriented.
3.
Focused on time
4.
5.
Easy to maintain
6.
7.
Total Cost
COST
Direct Cost
Indirect Cost
Crash Time
Optimum Time
Normal Time
The project has the highest cost corresponding to the crash duration and has normal cost
corresponding to the normal duration. Thus we have two types of times defined below:
(i) Normal time. A normal time is the standard time associated, with normal resource of
the organization to perform the activity.
(ii) Crash time. Crash time is the minimum possible time in which an activity can be
completed by employing extra resources. Crash time is that time, beyond which the
activity cannot be shortened by any amount of increase in resources.
(iii) Normal costs: the expenditure incurred on normal resources for completing any activity
in normal time is known as normal costs.
(iv) Crash costs. The total expenditure incurred on normal and additional resource for
crashing the time is known as crashed costs.
The cost slope formula can be represented as:
The slope =
Cost slope represents the extra cost of shortening the duration of the activity by one time
unit. For reducing the activity duration the management may agree for extra expenditure but
to keep this expenditure minimum we must concentrate on those activities for which cost slope
is minimum.
It can be observed that shortening the project duration leads to increase in direct costs
but decrease in overhead (indirect) costs and the strategy will be justified only when it results
in net saving. The normal tendency of every manufacturer is to produce at minimum cost and
to have most efficient use of human resources. But in emergencies or sudden rush of orders if
production is to be increased by increasing rate of production then naturally additional
expenditure are to be introduced (e.g. working over time or in two shifts) which will result in
extra expenditure. Manufacturer will be tempted to crash the time only when the profit earned
from additional production is more than the extra expenditure on crashing.
6(4)
3(2)
1
7(5)
2
5(4)
4(6)
Normal
Activity
Crash
Time (days)
Cost (Rs.)
Time (days)
Cost (Rs.)
1-2
300
400
2-3
480
520
2-4
2100
2500
2-5
400
600
3-4
320
360
4-5
500
520
Solution
From the network diagram critical path is 1- 2- 3 4- 5 and the project duration is 18 days. To
contract the network in first stage we must identify those activities on critical path, which have
cost slopes less than the indirect cost. The slopes are calculated as under.
Table 9.17 Activity relationship
Normal
Crash
Crash Cost
Normal Cost
Normal Time
Crash Time
Activity
Cost Slope
Cc N c
N t Ct
Cc N c
N t Ct
100
100
520
40
20
2500
400
200
600
200
100
360
40
40
520
20
20
Time
Cost
Time
Cost
(days)
(Rs.)
(days)
(Rs.)
1-2
300
400
2-3
480
2-4
2100
2-5
400
3-4
320
4-5
500
Now for crashing we consider all possible paths in the network and the corresponding
durations in tabular from as under.
Path
Sequence
Target Time
P1
1-2-3-4-5
18
16
15
14
P2
1-2-4-5
15
15
14
14
P3
1-2-5
11
11
11
11
Critical path activities 2-3 and 4-5 have least cost slopes.
Therefore, crashing the activities 2-3 and 4-5 by 2 days and 1 day respectively.
Project duration = 18 3 = 15 days.
Cost of project
= Normal cost + Extra crashing cost + Indirect cost
= (300 +480 +2100 +400 +320 +500)+ (2 20 + 1 20) + 15 100
= Rs 5600/In second stage crashing the least cost slope activity 3-4 on critical path by 1 day. Project
duration = 14 days.
Cost of project
= Normal cost + extra crashing cost + indirect cost
= 4100+ (20 2 + 1 20 + 1 40) + 14 100 = Rs 5600/The total project cost with normal activities (without crashing)
= Normal cost + Indirect cost for 18 days = 4100 + 1800 = Rs 5900/Therefore, the optimum cost of the project is Rs 5600/-.
Job (I-J)
Normal Duration
(in days)
Minimum (Crash)
Duration in Days
Cost of Crashing
(Rs per day)
1-2
20
1-3
25
1-4
15
10
20
2-4
10
3-4
10
15
4-5
40
What are the normal project length and the minimum project length?
Determine the minimum crashing costs schedules ranging from normal length down
to and including, the minimum length schedule i.e. if L is the length of normal
schedule, find the costs of schedule which are L, L-1, L-2 and so on, long days
Overhead Costs total Rs 60/day. What is the optimal length schedule duration of each
job for your solution
Solution
(a) Construct the network considering the normal duration of the project as given below.
E2 = 9,6
L2 = 13,8
53
96
21
1
4
85
E1 = 0
L1 = 0
106
E4 = 18,11
L4 = 18,11
5
E5 = 20,12
L5 = 20,12
E3 = 8,5
L3 = 8.5
The critical path is 1-3-4-5 with the normal duration 20 days and minimum project length
is 12 days.
(b) Since the present schedule consumes more time, the duration can be reduced by
crashing some of the activities. Also since the project duration is controlled by the
activities lying on the critical path, the duration of some of the activities lying on the
critical path can be reduced.
Step I: First, reduce the duration of that activity which involves the minimum cost. Since
the activity (3,4) involves minimum cost, the duration of this activity can be compressed from
10 days to 9 days resulting on total cost for 19 days schedule becomes equal to = Rs.15 +19*60
= Rs.1155.
Step II: Again since the critical path remains unchanged, the duration of activity (3,4) can
be reduced further from 9 days to 8 days resulting in an additional cost of Rs. 2*15 i.e. Rs.30. So
the total cost for 18 days schedule becomes = Rs. 30+18*60 = Rs.1110/-.
Step III: Continue this procedure till the total cost starts increasing. The calculations
may be compiled in the following table:
Table 9.19 Activity costs
Overhead @
Rs.60/Day
Total Cost
(Rs.)
20
19
1*15=15
20*60
19*60
1200
1155
18
17
16
15
2*15=30
3*15=45
3*15+1*40=85
4*15+1*40+1*30=130
18*60
17*60
16*60
15*60
1110
1065
1045
1030
14
4*15+1*40+2*30+1*25+1*10=195
14*60
1035
(c) Since the total cost starts Increasing for 14 days duration, the minimum total cost of
Rs. 1030/- occurs for 15 days duration. Hence the optimum length of the schedule is
15 days. Optimum duration of each job is as follows:
Job
Opt duration (Days)
14
(2,4)
(3,4)
(4,5)
If in Progress
Completion Required
Additional time
required for
Activity
Yes / No
Whether Completed
Activity
Additional time
Yes/No
If yes, time
taken (days)
3
Completion
required for
time required
activities in
for activities yet
progress (days) to begin (days)
1-2
No
1-3
Yes
1-4
Yes
2-7
3-4
Yes
4-5
No
5-6
No
5-7
No
5-8
No
6-8
No
7-8
No
The updated network can be drawn on the basis of data form the table. For those activities,
which have been already completed, completion time is taken to be zero, since they require
zero time after the 10th day. Also the earliest start time and latest finish time of each event is
calculated with reference to original starting date of the project. This can be achieved by taking
EST for event I as equal to 10 days.
20
21
27
7
29
7
5
8
12
12
21
21
25
4
34
25
4
4
3
3
18
6
18
29
29
34
The updated network is shown. The critical path remains unchanged (i.e., 1-3-4-5-6-8).
The project duration will be 34 days instead of 26 days originally scheduled.
On the day of updating the remaining duration of project = 34 12 = 22 days.
10
9
4
3
8
ES
14
10
10
10
12
LF
6
3
0
6
1
2
3
4
10
10
15
15
2
11
2
17
12
17
19
19
Activity
Duration
Men
Activity
Duration
Men
1-2
5-9
2-3
6-8
2-4
7-9
2-5
8-9
3-10
9-11
4-6
10-11
4-7
11-12
Solution
The first step is to determine critical path. The network in figure shows EST and LFT (after
commutation) for various activities. The critical path (marked by thick arrows) is 1-2-4-7-9-1112. with a project duration of 19 days. Now resource allocation can be made on the basis of their
availability and using the following criterion:
(i) Resource allocation based on EST
(ii) Resource allocation based on LST.
(iii) Resource allocation with limited availability of the resource.
The earliest start time of various activities is calculated then a time scaled network is
drawn by taking the critical activities on horizontal line and slack activities (having float) above
it as shown in figure:
10
2M
1M
8
1M
3M
1
1M
11
9
1
3M
1M
12
1M
5
1M
1
1
2
1
3
6
4
6
5M
5
6
6
5
7
6
9
6
1
5
11
2
12
1
13
6
14
6
15
6
1
1
17
1
18
1
19
1
14
12
10
6
11
12
13
14
15
17
18
From the network diagram, if we allocated the resource without considering the float
available for the non critical activities there is a peak requirement of men of 7th and 8th day (5
men for activity 5-9,3 for activity 4-7,3 for activity 4-6 and 2 for activity 3-10 (which is yet to
complete). Total requirement of men on 7th & 8th day will be 13; also the requirement of men
from 11th day will be very less. By inspection we fined that the activity 5-9 has float of 7days.
Hence the start of activity 5-9 can be shifted by 7 days, this will be given encouraging
result, as this activity requires 5 men. Thus activity 5-9 can stared after 11th day instead of
after 4th day. We find that the peak demand of men has been decreased from (13 for 7th and 8th
day) to 8.
Similarly we can shift activity 8-9 by its total float of 2 days thus following this procedure
it is always possible to smoothen the resource without affecting the project duration. Thus
Days Number
Men Busy
Days Number
Men Busy
0-2
9-10
2-4
10-11
4-6
11-12
6-8
12-15
8-9
15-19
(f) Painting of the buildings exterior could not proceed until the windows and exterior
doors were installed. Installation of the windows and doors, in turn, could not start
until the siding was in place.
After studying a plans and construction schedule of the petrol station under construction.
Mr. Kumble developed an estimate of the time required to complete each step of the building of
the tyre shop. The estimate (Exhibit 1) were is most cases developed from the figure given to
Mr. Kumble by the foreman of the petrol station job. Mr. Kumble had found in the past that
figures of this type were usually quite accurate. One exception to this was the figures obtained
from the carpenter foreman, who was sometimes a little too pessimistic about his estimates.
As he studied the time estimates he had put together for the tyre shop job, Mr. Kumble
realized that some of the steps would to be rushed in order to complete the job in 55 days. To
provide more usable information on the effects of rushing some of the construction steps, Mr.
Kumble estimated the extra cost of reducing the normal time required for each step by one or
more days (Exhibit 1). The cost could increase the cost of tyre shop over what might be called
the cost under optimal conditions, (the cost incurred if each step could be performed at normal
pace without undue rushing, overtime, etc). Realizing that any extra costs should be kept at an
absolute minimum, Mr. Kumble tried to develop a construction schedule, which rushed only
those activities where the extra cost was not too high. After several hours of work Mr. Kumble
devised the following tentative construction plan:
Deciding that the plan needed further work. Mr. Kumble put all his notes on and tyre
shop into his brief-case to do further work at home that evening. He also put a booklet. The
management implication of PERT published by a management-consulting firm into his briefcase
Table 9.24 Activity times & costs
Step
A
Estimated Time
Reduction
to Execute Step (Days possible)
Cost in Rs.
(Additional)
200
10
2,400
Excavate foundation
4,000
Pore concrete
3,600
Electric work
4,000
Lathe work
400
Plumbing
1,600
Plaster walls
800
1,400
3,000
10
4,000
7,000
1,800
Trim installation
2
3
3,000
15
20,000
50,000
Contd...
Step
Cost in Rs.
(Additional)
2,000
8,000
Installation of siding
2,000
12,000
2,000
Paint exterior
1
2
3,000
Blueprints finalized
1,400
2,400
1,000
3,400
2,000
order is sent
4
5,000
2,000
2,000
Draw a revised construction schedule that Mr. Kumble might have conceived to complete
the project in crash time of 55 days and find out the minimum crash cost, i.e., additional.
Hint
D
3
2
A
4
8
5
1
5
B
Q
5
6
C
4
S
10
5
6
7
15
5
8
11
15
16
17
G
7
J
12
13
6
R
14
Normal Time
Crashed Time
Additional Costs
10
2,400
P
S
I
J
L
N
3
6
10
8
8
7
2
4
7
5
6
5
1,000
2,000
7,000
3,000
2,000
3,000
20,400
QUESTIONS
1. What were the problems in bar charts that led to evolution of network?
2. What is the difference in network convention AON and AOA?
3. What is the need for statistical method of deriving single time estimate?
4. Explain the terms:
Float
Total Float
Free Float
Independent Float
Event Slacks.
Activity
Duration (weeks)
Predecessors
A
B
C
D
E
F
2
2
7
12
10
3
None
None
A
A
B
D,E
C,F
11. Find the critical path and project duration for the following project network.
3
E(10)
B(5)
A(4)
C(6)
D(7)
F(9)
H(3)
G(8)
5
12. For processing a job at a data processing center, certain steps need to be taken. These jobs can
be described as follows:
Job
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Description
Design flowchart and write Fortran statements
Punch control cards
Punch comment cards
Punch programme cards
Obtain brown folder
Put deck together
Submit deck
Immediate
Predecessors
-A
A
A
B, C, D
B, C, D
E, F
Time
(minutes)
180
30
20
60
10
20
10
Draw a critical-path arrow diagram and indicate the critical path. What is the minimum time
required for completion?
What is the free float of job C?
13. Draw the arrow diagram, identity the critical path and compute total and free floats for the
activities in the project of planning a rural piped-water supply.
Activity
Identification
Activity Description
Predecessor(s)
Immediate
Duration (week)
Expected
(week)
Excavation of well
--
Completion of well
15
c, d
Contribution of reservoir
Laying of pipelines
e, g
Roadside tabs
h, f
14. A project comprises eight independent activities. Draw the diagram for the project and identify
its critical path. What is the expected time to complete the project? Calculate the total and free
floats for non-critical activities. What is the probability of completing the project in 20 weeks or
less? Time estimates (in weeks) are as follows where a = most optimistic time, m = most likely
time, b = most pessimistic time.
Activity
Predecessor
10
B, D, E
13
15. A Market research company( QQ )has been commissioned by the food manufacturer ZZ to carry
out research market in a new product development product, prior to a test market launch. The
table below lists required activities and their durations, in weeks:
Activity
Immediate
Predecessor
Duration
(weeks)
Group discussions
20
12
Contd...
Activity
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
Duration
(week)
B
C
C, D, E
E
G
G
F, I
H, J, K
H, J, K
L
M, N
11
5
4
30
8
10
7
6
4
10
3
(a)
Draw the new product development network. State and explain the critical path, and its
duration.
(b)
(c) Prepare a table of the earliest start and finish times, the latest start and finish times, and
the total and free float. Explain the importance of the float for management.
16. A project which is about to start comprises the activities listed in the table below:
Activity
Duration (weeks)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
None
A
A
C
C
D, E
None
A, G
G
4
13
5
11
3
4
3
5
4
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
H
H
J, K
F, L
B, M
I, M
O
17
2
3
3
3
2
3
N, P
Ignoring holiday periods, the project must be completed by the end of week 38. If the project is
delayed beyond this date, it is estimated that it will cost the firm Rs. 30,000 a week.
Activity
Preceding Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
A
A
A
C
D
B, D, E
6
3
5
4
3
3
5
5
I
J
H
I, G, F
2
3
Draw the critical path network for the project and determine the critical path
and its duration.
If the start of activity B is delayed by 3 weeks, activity E by 2 weeks and activities G by
2 weeks, how is the total time for the project affected?
Assume that time given in the above table are the expected times of the activities, the
durations of which are normally distributed with the following standard deviations:
Activity
Standard
Deviation
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Ignoring the delays referred to in (ii) and the possible effect of uncertainty in non-critical activities,
determine a 95% confidence interval for the expected time on the critical path.
The cost of the project is estimated to be Rs. 10,00, 000. If it is completed within
24 weeks, the expected returns should be about Rs. 1,00,00,000 but if the deadline
of 24 weeks is not met, the product will fail to penetrate the market a net
revenue of only Rs. 2,00,00,000 is expected. Determine the expected profit on
this subject. For simplicity, you should ignore the delays referred to in (ii) and
the possible effect of uncertainty in non-critical activities.
Task
Immediate
Predecessor
Normal
Time (weeks)
Cost
(Rs. 000)
Crash
Time (weeks)
Cost
(Rs. 000)
10
20
30
15
20
14
11
15
15
A, D, C
12
Indirect cost is Rs. 400 per day. Find the optimal duration and the associated minimum project
cost.
10
MATERIAL REQUIREMENT PLANNING
Material Requirement Planning (MRP) has evolved over time from payroll, inventory control
techniques. Assembly operations involving thousands of parts such as automobile manufacturer
led to large inventories. The need to bring down large inventory levels associated with these
inventories led to early MRP systems that planned order releases. It is different from techniques
like economic order quantities (EOQ) and safety stock calculations and deals with dependant
inventory items.
MRP
Order-point
Demand
Dependent
Independent
Order philosophy
Forecast
Control concept
Requirements
Based on master schedule
Control all times
Replacement
Based on past demand
ABC
Objectives
Lot sizing
Demand pattern
Type of inventory
FORECAST
CURRENT
CONDITIONS
PRODUCTION PLAN
(AGGREGATE PLAN)
Inventory
Transactions
(e.g. Receipt,
Withdrawal,
Quantity)
MASTER SCHEDULE
Inventory
Records and
Projected Status
Engineering Data
e.g. BOM, Routing
and Design Changes
Product Structure
File
M.R.P. Program
Make Or
Buy
Requirement
for Buy Items
Requirement for
Make Items
Purchase order
Capacity
Requirement
Planning (CRP)
Vender Feedback
Detailed
Production Plan
Production Activity
Control and
Current Status
Fig 10.1 Information flow for planning and control with project management
Cylinder
Valve Assembly
Valve (1)
Each value assembly requires a value and a value housing. The order quantities, lead
times and stock at hand at the beginning of period, for the above components/assemblies are
shown. Lead-time is the time interval between placement of order and receipt of materials.
The Bill of Materials (BOM) for the fire extinguisher is shown below.
Table 10.2 Unit requirements and lead time
Part
Fire Extinguisher
Cylinder
Value Assemblies
Value
Value Housing
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
Handle Bars
Incorrect supplier lead time or manufacturing lead time causes incorrect calculations
Highly computational approach may cause any accuracy to aggravate to large extent
Product structure must be assembly oriented
Valid master production schedule must exist
Reduction in inventory
Improve customer service.
Quicker response to change in demand.
Greater productivity.
Rethink (Technology,
system, procedure)
Requirements
(Customers, suppliers,
products, services)
Redesign (Optimise,
process, system)
Re-orchestrate
(Leadership,
Values, Culture,
Celebration)
Realization (Strength,
weakness, threat,
opportunity)
Retool (Technology,
delivery, plan, control)
Re-evaluate (Performance,
results, goals
QUESTIONS
1. What is the difference between MRP-I and MRP-II.
2. What are the inputs and outputs of MRP
3. Explain the following terms
Bill of Materials
B.O.M Explosions
11
INTERNET AND E-COMMERCE
11.1 HISTORY OF INTERNET AND WEB
The Internet has taken its place beside the telephone and television as an important part of
peoples lives. The evolution of Internet can be traced in the need to share information between
two or more computers located at distant places. The Internet was developed form a network of
four computers by US Department of Defense in 1969. This network was developed to experiment
with networks and share resources among DOD (Department of Defense) funded research
contractors. This network was named APRANET (Advance Research Projects Administration
Network.). Eventually APRANET evolved into formidable military and non-military computer
networks as thousands of smaller networks mainly from the universities and educational institute
joined thus increasing the data traffic tremendously. In mid 1980s a US organization called
NSF (National Science Foundation) assigned five supercomputers to manage the ever-increasing
data transmission load. In April 1995, T3 NSFNET backbone was replaced by NAPs (Network
accesses point). Incidentally, the WEB technology has revolutionized the date distribution
networks and boosted the popularity of the Internet to a very large extent. The WWW includes
most of the commercial, educational and networking sites, which are sources of information,
business development and e-commerce. Today more than 20 million computers are connected
to the Internet. The WWW (World Wide Web) has been immensely popular because of its
simple graphic nature and easy accessibility.
11.2 INTERNET
It is a global network of computer networks. It is a conglomeration of computer networks and
other connected machines all over the world. The machines and the computer networks are
interconnected therefore the intercommunication information accessibility and exchange is
possible. The computers may be connected through various media such as fiber optic cables;
telephone lines or by means of satellite. Though the Internet is a network of heterogeneous
mix of technologies and operating systems, the intercommunication is not a problem because
of TCP/IP (Transmission control protocol/ Internet protocol). This feature of the Internet has
made it the most cherished medium of communication worldwide in the modern age.
The Internet is a mesh of inter linked networks which include million of servers, housing
incalculable amounts of data. The machines and the computer networks are interconnected
therefore the intercommunication information accessibility and exchange is possible. The people
can use their stand-alone computers or their local area network workstations to send messages
or exchange files with the people using computers in another region be it in another company,
another state, another country anywhere provided all the machines involved in communication
are connected within the Internet. Internet offers a variety of services such as Electronic Mail,
Telnet, File Transfer etc. and with the help of software, it provides access to remote data
stored in other computers.
UK
Local
Canada
Bulletin Board
System BSS
US
Japan
The Internet
Workstation Running
TCP/IP
MAN/WAN
(Metropolitan Area Network/Wide
Area Network
Internet Protocol: This mainly deals with the address of computers. The Internet Protocol
decides the address of computer to be labeled on the packet. This allows various computers or
intermediate nodes to read the address of the destination computer and route the packet to the
destination node.
Simple Mail Transfer Protocol (SMTP): Used for delivery of E-mail. When an E-mail
is to be sent, then the Mail Transfer Program contacts the remote machine and forms a TCP
connection over which the mail is transferred. Once the connection is established, then Simple
Mail Transfer Protocol identifies the sender itself, specified the recipient of mail and then
transfers the E-mail message.
Point-to-Point Protocol (PPP): This is used when the Internet is accessed using a
telephone line. The PPP is the set of rules, which specify how the data will be communicated
over telephone line from your computer when the connection with your ISP has been established.
This protocol is used in connection with SLIP (Serial Line Internet Protocol). The protocol
allows the user to use GUI based web browsers like Netscape and MS Internet Explorer. Internet
Service providers use the PPP and SLIP account to enable users to view graphics on the
Internet. These accounts assign and IP address to your computer when a connection is
established.
Electronic Mail
Usenet
Telnet
IRC (Internet Really Chat)
FTP (File Transfer Protocol)
Archie
Gopher
Veronica
World Wide Web
11.5.2 Usenet
Usenet is an asynchronous, one to many communications, which consists of various newsgroups.
This implies that someone prepares the information and anyone who is interested can read it
whenever he feels like. The building block of USENET is the newsgroups.
11.5.3 Telnet
It is a service on the Internet, which allows the users to log on to a remote system, and used
various services available on that host. The user must have the necessary USER ID and the
Password for access to the remote system to use TELNET utility. The users can used this
utility to access huge databases, catalogues or libraries of various servers and used the
information for commercial or research purposes.
11.5.6 Archie
It is a collection of servers. Each of these servers is a responsible for keeping track of file
locations in several different FTP sites. All of the ARCHIE servers communicate and pool their
information into a huge database, which is required to be updated periodically. The user can
search this database using the keyword.
11.5.7 Gopher
It is a menu driven system that enables the users to navigate within the Internet resources of
information. Gopher space refers to the group of large number of specialized libraries, which
are interconnected.
11.5.8 Veronica
(Very easy, rodent oriented, netwide index to the computer achieves): It is a search tool, which
enables to quick scan Gopher space for particular files.
Organizational
Geographic
.com
.au
Australia
.edu
.ca
Canada
gov
Government organizations
.uk
England
.mil
.in
India
.net
.fr
France
.org
Organization
.uk
U.K.
ac
Academic
11.7 INTRANET
Intranet is an internal Internet of an organisation, which is an exclusive network of the
organization using Internet technology. An Intranet differs from a conventional LAN in two
ways. Firstly, unlike conventional LAN which may not necessarily be using Internet protocol
TCP/IP, Intranet links more than one kind of networking technology-using TCP/IP. Since,
conceptually, Intranet is an exclusive network of an organization and TCP/IP is an open protocol
11.8.8 Self-service
The Internet can save time and money and improve order accuracy by eliminating unnecessary
intermediaries in the business chain between buyer and seller. The efficiency in sales for the
seller and cost benefit to the buyer cultivates a close relationship between the two, which is
harbinger to the improved quality in the products and services.
11.8.9 Advertising
The business houses can put attractive click-able banners on popular web sites which once
clicked would take the web surfer to their Web sites and introduce them to their products and
services. This can boost the business potential of the business houses by increasing their sales
and improving upon their image in the corporate world.
E-commerce has a tremendous impact on the structure of business supply chains. The
companies worldwide are adopting the Web based network to integrate its suppliers for efficiency
in the commerce and major cost savings. These solutions have given rise to the virtual enterprises
in which the scope of their business is expanding at a brisk rate. An important example in this
context is a prominent automobile company Chrysler Corp. this company is linked with its
suppliers through a Web based network. An estimated annual savings as a result of this network
is to the tune of $2billion per annum. E-commerce based integration of supply chains has
retrograding impact on the intermediaries in the business because the manufacturers have
direct communication links with the suppliers and the buyers.
One of the international major E-commerce sites is the Cisco connection Web site. This
Web site is available in 14 international languages. Other example of a successful e-commerce
Web site is an online bookstore from a company called Amazon. The user may surf Amazon.com
to chose from the range of books priced at a lower rate than regular retail book store and make
an order online using his credit card facility.
Though the growth of the E-commerce has been phenomenal over the years, the major
surge in the popularity of E-commerce will depend upon the resolving of the security issues
involved in this type of trade. Over the years, many users have deterred shopping online
because of their concern about the vulnerability or risk involved in use of their credit cards
online. Major risks include frauds, thefts and viruses. However, this risk has now been reduced
considerably due to development of secure Internet protocols and payment systems. Major
technology in vogue and expected to be used in future also for the purpose of security is the
public key encryption. The popularity of this technology is owing to its lower costs. The feasibility
of e-commerce has increased owing to the widespread use of the Internet, the development of
the security standards and protocols and the additions of the electronic payment systems. Most
of these organizations generally offer real-time secure digital signature based authentication
services and act as an intermediary between the customer, the merchant and the credit card
clearing house.
11.10 E-CASH
Most online shoppers use credit or debit cards to pay for their online purchases. The debit card
may be an Automated Teller Machine (ATM) card that can be used for retail purchases. To
complete a debit card transaction a Personal Identification Number (PIN) may be required
along with some form of a signature or other identification, or a combination of these identifiers.
Some cards have both credit and debit features. The payment option can be selected at the
point-of-sale. Although a debit card may look like a credit card, the money for debit purchases
is transferred almost immediately from the bank account to the merchants account. In addition,
the liability limits for a lost or stolen debit card and its unauthorized use are different from the
liability if the credit card is lost, stolen or used without authorization.
New electronic payment systems also referred to as electronic money or e-money with
the goal of making purchase simpler. The stored-value cards allow transferring cash value
to a card. They are commonly used on public transportation, at colleges and universities and at
gas stations. Some stored-value cards work offline, say, to buy a candy bar at a vending machine;
others work online, for example, to buy an item from a website; some have both offline and
online features. Some cards can be reloaded with additional value, at a cash machine; other
cards are disposable. Some stored-value cards contain computer chips that make them Smart
infrastructure in India is VSNL (Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd). Some of the important customers
of VSNL infrastructure for EDI facility. NIC (National Informatics Centre) also offers EDI
facilities through its VAN infrastructure. The important private company joint ventures offering
EDI facilities using their VANs are Global Telecom Services Ltd./General Electric Information
Systems, Satyam Infoway/Sterling US, Mahindra Network Services/Singapore Network Services
Pvt.Ltd. A Chennai based Indian company Satyam Infoway (P) Ltd is implementing a pilot
project for the Indian automobile industry represented by ACMA (Automotive Component
Manufacturers Association). This would speed up the transaction cycle of the industy. The
project covers 11 major companies like Bajaj Auto, Telco, Mahindra and Mahindra, Ashok
Leyland, Brakes India, Mico, Shriram Pistons, Sundaram Clayton, Sundaram Fasteners, Lucas
TVS and Remsons Industries. Though the benefits of EDI are perceptible, there are certain
legal issues, which need to be resolved to enhance its popularity in the business world. The
major legal issue is that Indian laws do not accept electronic data as the evidence of a business
transaction. However, this hurdle may not choke the development of the EDI because it has
got the global acceptance.
5 Merchant sends packets of
E-cash to his bank
1 Surf the Net
Commercial
Website of
Merchant
The
Merchant
Bank
2
Encrypted request
(IU)
The
users
bank
Varification of E-cash
through the users key
On verification of E-cards
QUESTIONS
1. Internet is a network of network. Explain the statement.
2. What is the need of protocols used in Internet. What are the commonly used protocols.
3. What are the common uses of internet.
4. What are the commercial applications of internet.
5. Explain the terms.
Internet Address
Domain Names
Smart card
12
TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT
12.1 INTRODUCTION
Over the past two decades, engineering industries have witnessed an unprecedented emphasis
on quality in all aspects of the business including the product development It is currently the
yardstick for any one to enter into global markets. This has led to standardization of quality
system and the concept of Total Quality Management (TQM). Quality has undergone conceptual
change with process of evolution. Initially it was associated with inspection and later on covered
the areas of process control, quality assurance, total quality management and strategic quality
management.
In the first two phases (that is inspection and process control) the quality was mostly
confined to shop floor activities. The concept of quality assurance took care of design process. A
wider coverage involving people and the system brought out the Total Quality Management
concept. A further step based on the definition of quality as the fitness for the purpose as seen
by the customer brought out the concept of Strategic Quality Management (SQM) encompassing
the quality of the product throughout its life. Today the industries do not talk much on quality
but take actions to achieve it. They know that it is the most critical factor for their existence.
Quality and productivity are two measures of value ratio, quality describes a great deal
about the numerator of value ratio and productivity helps to describe denominator. The business
units of return of investment (ROI) and return on sales (ROS) also have a high positive corelation with relative quality. Improved quality is often advantageous even if it does not increase
the market share. There is evidence to suggest that customer prefers better quality products
though at a price which may be slightly higher. In addition to the above information there is
support in operation management literature that better quality and its control can actually
reduce costs. This fact may not be obvious. But in manufacturing much of the capacity, labour
and material can be wasted making items incorrectly (scrap) and then screening the bad items
from the good and reworking those, which are defective.
Hence it is less expensive to make things right first time than to make them over and do
it right on the final try. It is less costly to provide satisfactory service to a customer the first
time than to do it the second time after providing the service once and having to deal with
dissatisfied customers. Imagine the strategic advantage a company can achieve through quality.
The company may actually lower costs but it may be able to sell its products at higher price
than its competitor. Such a company can earn higher profits even in the face of serious price
competition. It might gain market share which often leads to economics of scale and higher
profit.
TQM is an active approach in encompassing company wide operating philosophy and system
for continuous improvement of quality. It demands co-operation from everyone in the company
from top management down to the workers. TQM owes its origin to two Americans
12.2.1 Definition
Quality is about doing thing right
First time and satisfying customers and minimizing costs, maximizing profits
The totality of features and characteristics of product, service and process, which
bears on its ability to satisfy a given need. (British Standard Definition)
The total composite product and service characteristics of marketing, engineering,
manufacturing and maintenance through which the product or service in use will
meet expectations of the customer. (Armand Feigenbaum)
doing thins right the first time.. every time.
W. Edwards Deming (1986)
fitness for use, as judged by the user.
Joseph M Juran (1989)
conformance to requirements.
Philip B. Crossby (1979)
6. Conformance: It measures how well the product meets the specifications or target
set by its designer.
7. Aesthetic characteristics: how an item looks, feels, tastes or smells. These are more
subjective and sometimes more difficult to measure objectively.
8. Perceived quality: feeling of confidence in the level of quality that customers develop
on the basis of what they do see, their prior experiences and reputation of the company.
Service quality is often more difficult to describe in quantifiable measures that can be
used with in a company to see if work practices are consistent and correct.
Failure
50%
Appraisal
35%
Prevention
15%
In 2002
COQ 8.0% of sales
Appraisal
17%
Failure
40%
Prevention 43%
From above breakup it is found that after company redirected its corporate culture towards
improving quality then its cost of quality reduced from 17 per cent of sales to about 8 percent of
sales.
Cost of
detection
Cost of
detection
Cost of
detection
Cost of
detection
Cost of
detection
Traditional View
Quality is an operation improved only when every body involved, those who handle the product
and those who do not become aware that their tasks can effect and that they may need to
redirect their procedures and habits towards preventing mistakes. The goal is therefore to
have zero defects, or making the product perfect. But at what cost, this is the point of debate.
The workers and managers must analyze the mistake to determine why particular defects are
originated in to the product. Both must work in a cohesive manner to remove them. The
setting of zero defect standard and the importance of removing all causes of errors in the
process have been debated. As the number of defects change how do the total cost of quality
(sum of failure, detection and prevention) change. Figure below shows the two opposing views
on the issue.
Cost of
failure
Cost of
prevention
Cost of dtection
Cost of
detection
No. of defects
Zero defects
According to traditional view lowest cost is achieved at zero level of defects. This is because
returns are diminished as more and more errors are found / eliminated and fewer error persist.
The last errors are thought to be the toughest to find and correct. According to zero defect
view, the causes of defects in the product are so simple although numerous, that it may take no
more expenditure to remove the last cause error than to remove the first. It may take longer
time for last source of error but the steps to correct likely to be rather simple.
(iv) Total Quality Management: The fourth and highest level involves the application
of quality management principles to all aspects of the business. Quality management is defined
in ISO 8402 (1986) as that aspect of the overall management function that determines and
implements the quality policy and as such is the responsibility of top management. Individual
departmental system and requirements to meet this standard may not be higher than for a
quality assurance level of quality management but they will pervade the whole organization
including sales, finance, personnel and other functions. It would also expect the spread of total
quality management philosophy to extend beyond the organization itself to include partnership
with suppliers and customers. Total quality is quality in entirety taking care of all-important
aspects viz; cost, safety, prompt service, design, environment protection etc.
Total quality management uses a variety of method to involve, motivate and imbibe people
at all organization levels with the philosophy that improvement is a way of life. Key features of
the total quality management are employees involvement and development and a teamwork
approach in dealing with the important activities.
Axiom 2 :
Scientific knowledge
Axiom 3 :
Involvement
Customer in T Q M culture is not intended to mean only final customer of product, but
each of individual or department, which is in process of chain to the external customer.
SPC Tools Commonly Used for Problem Solving and Continuous Improvement
100
50%
0%
A
Pareto Analysis
(Focuses on Important Errors)
Control Charts
Machine
Item
B
.
.
.
Scatter Diagram
Run Chart
Histogram
;
.
D
;
Man
F
.
Environment
Effect
.
Method
Checklist
Material
L(y)
L(y) = K (y m)2
where
y
m
L
K
= actual measurement
= target value
= Loss as a function of y
= Constant
PLAN
DEMING CYCLE
ACT
DO
CHECK
Plan: Establish the objectives and processes necessary to deliver results in accordance
with customer requirements and the organizations policies.
Do: Implement the process.
Check: Monitor and measure processes and product against polices, objectives and
requirement for the product and report the results.
Act: Take actions to continually improve process performance.
This methodology can be applied to all processes.
circle represented study groups typically consisting of six to ten people aiming towards educational
development of their members.
Guidelines for selection and use of quality management and quality assurance
standards.
Guidelines for quality management and quality system elements.
Model for assurance of quality systems for design and development, production,
installation and servicing.
Model for the assurance of quality systems for production and installation.
Model for the assurance of the quality systems for inspection and test.
Procurement
Production
ISO 9003
ISO 9002
ISO 9001
Installation
Servicing
While ISO 9000 and 9004 establish guidelines for operations. ISO 9001, 9002, and 9003 are
well-defined standards. There are 20 elements in ISO 9000 standards that relate to how the
system operates and how well it is performing. Each of these elements applies in varying
degree to three standards 9001, 9002, 9003 (ISO 9001 contains all of them). Highest level is
9001 with quite some work and expense. ISO 9000 is somewhat intentionally vague. ISO 9000
is valuable to the firms because it provides a framework so they can access themselves where
they are and where they would like to be. The ISO organization itself does not conduct quality
system verification, nor does it attribute ISO 9000 certificates. These responsibilities are left to
registrars.
ISO 9000 Clause (1994)
ISO 9001
ISO 9002
ISO 9003
Management Responsibility
Quality System
Contract Review
Design Control
Document and Data Control
Purchasing
Control of Customer
Supplied Product
Product Identification and
Traceability
Process Control
Inspection and Testing
Control of Inspection, Measuring and Test Equipment
Inspection and Test Status
Control of Nonconforming Product
Corrective and Preventive Action
Handling, Storage, Packaging,
Preservation and Delivery
Control of Quality Records
Internal Quality Audits
Training
Servicing
Statistical Techniques
QUESTIONS
1. Explain what is quality. How is it different than total quality.
2. What are the quality attributes for products and services.
3. Discuss what is quality and its characteristics.
4. Explain what is meant by costs of quality.
5. Compare the traditional view of costs and zero defects costs.
6. Explain the levels of quality evolution.
7. What is Total Quality Management? Explain.
8. Explain the three TQM axioms along with the joiner triangle.
9. What are the major achievements of total quality.
10. What are the tools of quality
11. What are are control charts
12. Discuss the uses of ISO Certification
13
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND FUTURE OF
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Information is vital for the success of any organization and the same is also applicable to
project management. The need of information arises at every stage, starting from initiation,
planning, execution, control and upto close out of the project. Some common problems associated
with it are listed below:
1. The continuity among management efforts does not remain consistent because
someone in the organization needs to provide leadership and accountability for high
level planning.
2. It is a case, to find that technical experts have the fundamental project management
skills to carry out high level planning functions for any thing other than technical
requirements.
3. There is always lack of knowledge of fundamental project management practices.
4. Technical requirements may change on a daily basis and therefore information related
to it must be updated.
5. Impact of budget on the project is must be visualized and taken care off during project
management.
6. Information management is critical because any deviation from actual conditions
may change the fate of the project.
Initiation stage
Planning stage
Execution stage
Control stage
production description statement. But it is important to treat each effort as a separate entity
and creates them separately. It must be kept in mind that product description statement is
much less formal and detailed then the feasibility study.
executive management and project team. Although the frequency of the reports may sometime
vary, and should match with the meeting held. The status reports should include the following:
Current activity status
Significant accomplishment for the current period
Planned activities for the next period
Financial status
Technical status issues
Previous action plan
Last risk update status
The following may also be attached with the status report:
Updated Gantt charts
Recovery plans for activities not on schedulesdefined by project team as being late.
Correction action plans for expected problems
Resolution to arranged action items.
A sophisticated CPMS can assist in numerous planning and control tasks throughout the entire
project life cycle from conception to close out. Software that make use of Internet technology
further to expand upon these capabilities. Among commercial available CPMS there is
considerable verification in technical capabilities, flexibility, of use, interface and integration
capability. As a result their usefulness varies.
Most larger CPMS provide integrated planning, scheduling, costing, control and reporting
functions. These systems utilize practically all of the planning and control techniques. Project
managers have dozens of kind of project software packages to choose from software packages
vary greatly in capability and flexibility as in price. As choosing the right software were not
enough of a problem, the project manager must determine the right combination of computer
and peripheral devices processors, monitors, printers, plotters, modems and database and
web servers.
However the project management softwares should be as far as possible compatible with
the software currently being used in the organization. It should have the capacity to handle
multiple projects together involving a wide range of problems. It should be suitable supported
by graphs and reports in various formats. It should be easy to learn and implement. As far as
possible it should have the facility to operate on the existing network environment.
Some of the popular software packages are listed below:
Microsoft project
Harvard total project manager
Project schedule
Project planner
PRISM
INSTAPLAN
ACTION LIST
C COST
Artemis
Primavera
Trakker
Welcom
Though many software package are available today, which promise to do everything yet
only few are comprehensive in their coverage. Some of the popular software are:
13.2.3 Prism
It is the software package developed by Tata consultancy services. It determines the sequence
of activities and the duration with in which each activity must be completed in order to meet a
13.2.4 INSTA-PLAN
Insta-plan is a software package developed by WIPRO. It provides project-planning facilities
and also has presentation features. It is simple to use with its reports and presentation and is
gaining acceptance.
QUESTIONS
1. What is the role of information technology in project management?
2. What is the role of information at various stages of project?
3. Explain the significance of computer based project management.
4. Project the future of project management in current scenario.
5. What are the softwares commonly used for computer project management systems.
APPENDIX A
FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE APPLICATION PROCEDURE
The central financial institutions have prescribed common application form, which seeks
information about the project along following lines. The information deals with:
General name, nature of industry, etc.
Promoters information with brief write up about past performance.
Particulars of industrial concern with audited balance sheet, profit and loss account
of last five years, etc.
Particulars of project. These include details about capacity, process, technical
arrangements, management, plant and machinery, land and building, labour, effluents,
etc.
Cost of profit under different heads like land, building, plant and machinery, etc.
Means of financing which include share capital (equity and preference) rupee loans,
debentures, etc.
Marketing and selling arrangements.
Profitability and cash flow: The estimates of cost of production and working results
for the first ten years of operation as per form XI and XII respectively.
Government consents.
Declaration.
LIST OF FORMS
The following is the list of forms to be submitted along with the application for financed assistance.
I Letter addressed to the bankers
II Existing long-term borrowing
III Existing short-term borrowing
IV Distribution of shareholding
V Particulars of building
VI Particulars of imported machinery
VII Particulars of indigenous machinery
VIII Raw material requirements
IX Estimates of the cost of project
IXA Calculation of contingency
IXB Calculation of margin money
A Cost of Production
B Total
C Total
D
Administrative Expenses
Administrative salaries
Remuneration to directors
Professional fees
Light/postage/telegrams
Telephones/office supplies
Insurance/stationery
Sales Expenses
....................
Appendix A 215
N
Add depreciation
Preliminary expenses (written off)
Sources of funds
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Share issue
Profit before taxation with interest added back
Depreciation provision for the year
Development rebate reserve
Increase in secured medium and long term borrowing for the project
Other medium and long-term loans
Increase in unsecured loans and deposits
Increase in bank borrowing for working capital
Increase in liabilities for defined payment (including interest) to machinery suppliers
Sale of fixed assets
Sale of investments
Other income (total details) total (A)
Disposition of funds
Capital expenditure for the project
Other normal capital expenditure
Increase in working capital (current assets other than cash current liabilities
other than bank borrowing)
Decrease in secured medium and long term borrowing
All India institute
SRCs
Banks
Decrease in unsecured loan and deposits
Decrease in bank borrowing for working capital
Decrease in liabilities for deferred payment (including interest) to machinery suppliers
Increase in investments in other companies
Interest on term loans
Interest bank borrowing for working capital
Taxation
Dividends-equity, preference
Other expenditure
Total (B)
Net surplus/deficit
(A B)
Assets
Share capital
Reserve and surplus
Secured loans
Unsecured loans
Current liabilities and provisions
Fixed assets
Investments
Current assets, loans and advances
Miscellaneous expenditures and losses
APPENDIX B
AREAS OF THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
An entry in the table is the proportion under the entire curve which is between z = 0 and
a positive value of z. Areas for negative values of z are obtained by symmetry.
z
.00
.01
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
.0000
.0398
.0793
.1179
.1554
.0040
.0438
.0832
.1217
.1591
.0080
.0478
.0871
.1255
.1628
.0120
.0517
.0910
.1293
.1664
.0160
.0557
.0948
.1331
.1700
.0199
.0596
.0987
.1368
.1736
.0239
.0636
.1026
.1406
.1772
.0279
.0675
.1064
.1443
.1808
.0319
.0714
.1103
.1480
.1844
.0359
.0753
.1141
.1517
.1879
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
.1915
.2257
.2580
.2881
.3159
.1950
.2291
.2611
.2910
.3186
.1985
.2324
.2642
.2939
.3212
.2019
.2357
.2673
.2967
.3238
.2054
.2389
.2703
.2995
.3264
.2088
.2422
.2734
.3023
.3289
.2123
.2454
.2764
.3051
.3315
.2157
.2486
.2794
.3078
.3340
.2190
.2517
.2823
.3106
.3365
.2224
.2549
.2852
.3133
.3389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.3413
.3643
.3849
.4032
.4192
.3438
.3665
.3869
.4049
.4207
.3461
.3686
.3888
.4066
.4222
.3485
.3708
.3907
.4082
.4236
.3508
.3729
.3925
.4099
.4251
.3531
.3749
.3944
.4115
.4265
.3554
.3770
.3962
.4131
.4279
.3577
.3790
.3980
.4147
.4292
.3599
.3810
.3997
.4162
.4306
.3621
.3830
.4015
.4177
.4319
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.4332
.4452
.4554
.4641
.4713
.4345
.4463
.4564
.4649
.4719
.4357
.4474
.4573
.4656
.4726
.4370
.4484
.4582
.4664
.4732
.4382
.4495
.4591
.4671
.4738
.4394
.4505
.4599
.4678
.4744
.4406
.4515
.4608
.4686
.4750
.4418
.4525
.4616
.4693
.4756
.4429
.4535
.4625
.4699
.4761
.4441
.4545
.4633
.4706
.4767
Contd...
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
.4772
.4821
.4861
.4893
.4918
.4778
.4826
.4864
.4896
.4920
.4783
.4830
.4868
.4898
.4922
.4788
.4834
.4871
.4901
.4925
.4793
.4838
.4875
.4904
.4927
.4798
.4842
.4878
.4906
.4929
.4803
.4846
.4881
.4909
.4931
.4808
.4850
.4884
.4911
.4932
.4812
.4854
.4887
.4913
.4934
.4817
.4857
.4890
.4916
.4936
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
.4938
.4953
.4965
.4974
.4981
.4987
.4940
.4955
.4966
.4975
.4982
.4987
.4941
.4956
.4967
.4976
.4982
.4987
.4943
.4957
.4968
.4977
.4983
.4988
.4945
.4959
.4969
.4977
.4984
.4988
.4946
.4960
.4970
.4978
.4984
.4989
.4948
.4961
.4971
.4979
.4985
.4989
.4949
.4962
.4972
.4979
.4985
.4989
.4951
.4963
.4973
.4980
.4986
.4990
.4952
.4964
.4974
.4981
.4986
.4990
APPENDIX C
THE PRESENT VALUE OF ONE RUPEE
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
0.917
0.909
0.901
0.893
0.885
0.877
0.870
0.862
0.855
0.847
0.840
0.833
0.842
0.826
0.812
0.797
0.783
0.769
0.756
0.743
0.731
0.718
0.706
0.694
0.772
0.751
0.731
0.712
0.693
0.675
0.658
0.641
0.624
0.609
0.593
0.579
0.708
0.683
0.659
0.636
0.613
0.592
0.572
0.552
0.534
0.516
0.499
0.482
0.650
0.621
0.593
0.567
0.543
0.519
0.497
0.476
0.456
0.437
0.419
0.402
0.596
0.564
0.535
0.507
0.480
0.456
0.432
0.410
0.390
0.370
0.352
0.335
0.547
0.513
0.482
0.452
0.425
0.400
0.376
0.354
0.333
0.314
0.296
0.279
0.502
0.467
0.434
0.404
0.376
0.351
0.327
0.305
0.285
0.266
0.249
0.233
0.460
0.424
0.391
0.361
0.333
0.308
0.284
0.263
0.243
0.225
0.209
0.194
10
0.422
0.386
0.352
0.322
0.295
0.270
0.247
0.227
0.210
0.000
0.176
0.162
11
0.388
0.350
0.317
0.287
0.261
0.237
0.215
0.195
0.178
0.162
0.148
0.135
12
0.356
0.319
0.286
0.257
0.231
0.208
0.187
0.168
0.152
0.137
0.124
0.112
13
0.326
0.290
0.258
0.229
0.204
0.182
0.163
0.145
0.130
0.116
0.104
0.093
14
0.299
0.263
0.232
0.205
0.181
0.160
0.141
0.125
0.111
0.099
0.088
0.078
15
0.275
0.239
0.209
0.183
0.160
0.140
0.123
0.108
0.095
0.084
0.074
0.065
16
0.252
0.218
0.188
0.163
0.141
0.123
0.107
0.093
0.081
0.071
0.062
0.054
17
0.231
0.198
0.170
0.146
0.125
0.108
0.093
0.080
0.069
0.060
0.052
0.045
18
0.212
0.180
0.153
0.130
0.111
0.095
0.081
0.069
0.059
0.051
0.044
0.038
Contd...
Appendix A 219
Year
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