WEF AF13 African Strategic Infrastructure PDF
WEF AF13 African Strategic Infrastructure PDF
WEF AF13 African Strategic Infrastructure PDF
Strategic Infrastructure
in Africa
A business approach
to project acceleration
Prepared in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group
May 2013
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Contents
Forewords
3 Forewords
Infrastructure has been identified as a key priority under the African Unions Strategic Plan
for 2009-2012, which seeks to promote integration, socioeconomic development and
cooperation on the continent. The resulting Programme for Infrastructure Development in
Africa (PIDA) was approved by the African heads of state and government at their summit
in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in January 2012, signifying high-level political buy-in and
ownership of the programme.
Developed by the African Union Commission in partnership with the United Nations
Economic Commission for Africa, African Development Bank and the NEPAD Planning
and Coordinating Agency, PIDA specifically calls for new models of partnership between
business, government and donors to implement the 51 Priority Action Plan (PAP)
infrastructure projects already identified.
The projects and programmes in the Priority Action Plan span sectors from power
generation and transportation to water and telecommunications, with an overall capital
cost of US$ 68 billion through 2012 to 2020, or US$ 7.5 billion in expenditure per year up
to 2020. Power generation alone consists of 15 projects worth US$ 40 billion focusing
mainly on creating hydroelectricity generation capacity, building interconnectors between
power pools and constructing regional oil pipelines. Transportation consists of 24 projects
worth US$ 25 billion to link the major production and consumption centres, provide
connectivity among the major cities and open the landlocked countries to enhance
regional and continental trade. Although it represents an impressive figure, the PAP would
take only 0.2% of African gross domestic product and 1% of national budgets, meaning it
is a realistic, convincing proposal.
As a result of discussions with business and government leaders at the World Economic
Forum on Africa Summit in Addis Ababa in May 2012, the World Economic Forum
in partnership with the African Development Bank have formed a Business Working
Group on infrastructure in Africa. Recognized and endorsed at the 20th Assembly of
the African Union Heads of States in January 2013, the BWG will create a coordinated
business voice to review PIDA projects, prioritize a subset of those projects that can be
implemented based on bankability and do-ability, and catalyse their implementation.
This first Report of the Business Working Group presents a selection methodology that
proposes a common language with clear economic, technical, social and regional criteria
to identify infrastructure projects with the potential for acceleration. We expect that the
methodology developed in the context of Africa will be applicable to other regions, albeit
with certain adaptations. The Report also includes ideas around the potential innovations
and new products required to provide the financing required to implement Africas
infrastructure priorities.
We would like to thank the many World Economic Forum partner companies who have
generously contributed their expertise and time as members of the Business Working
Group: A.P. Mller-Maersk, ABB, Absa Capital, Actis, African Rainbow Minerals,
AngloGold Ashanti, ArcelorMittal, Arup, Development Bank of Southern Africa, Etisalat
Group, First Bank of Nigeria, General Electric, Industrial Development Cooperation of
South Africa, Oando, Old Mutual, Philips, Prudential, Rio Tinto, Sasol, SNC-Lavalin,
Standard Chartered, Sun Group, Transnet, United Phosphorus and Vale.
We would further like to thank the many organizations which have served as experts on
the Business Working Group: the African Capacity Building Foundation, Infrastructure
Consortium for Africa, the International Finance Corporation, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation,
the NEPAD Business Foundation, the Office of Gordon and Sarah Brown and the World
Bank.
We would like to make a special acknowledgement of the leadership provided by
Elham M.A. Ibrahim (African Union Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy), Donald
Kaberuka (President, African Development Bank, and core partner of this Initiative) and
Ibrahim Assane Mayaki (Chief Executive Officer, NEPAD Planning and Coordinating
Agency). We thank them for their genuine, relentless interest and commitment to the
African Strategic Infrastructure Initiative.
41 References
42 Contributors
Strategic Infrastructure in Africa: A business approach to project acceleration
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Gilbert Mbesherubusa
Vice-President for Infrastructure
Private Sector and Regional Integration
AfDB
Strategic Infrastructure in Africa: A business approach to project acceleration
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Executive Summary
The Infrastructure Financing Gap
Public infrastructure development drives
economic growth: for every dollar spent
on public infrastructure development,
the gross domestic product of a country
rises between US$ 0.05 and US$ 0.25.1
Despite this, however, global infrastructure
suffers from significant and growing
underinvestment. According to the G24,
by 2020, global demand for infrastructure
investment will be US$ 1.8-2.3 trillion, more
than double its 2008 level of US$ 800-900
billion. Development of environmentally
clean infrastructure would raise this
amount by an estimated US$ 200-300
million per annum.
While infrastructure demand is growing,
public infrastructure financing has become
more difficult to obtain as public budgets
are strained. Since the crisis of 2008, it has
become more difficult for banks to lend (e.g.
as a result of the Third Basel Accord), even
as the use of risk-mitigation tools (such as
collateralized debt obligations) has been
curtailed. Particularly in the developing
world, private capital will need to play
a larger role in infrastructure financing if
development is to keep pace with demand.
Private-sector investors will need tools
to help them analyse and accelerate
worthwhile projects.
Decomposition &
data collection
51 PIDA
projects &
programs
Estimated
100
projects
Threshold-based
grouping
Immediate
Midterm
Longterm
Decompose programs
to ensure projects on
comparable level
Most relevant for
Transportation &
ICT
Clarify linkages
between sectors
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Two-lens project
clustering
Fine-tune
project short list
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project realization
readiness/capacity:
Project readiness
Regional/country
readiness & capacity
Project value/impact:
Direct project value
Impact & secondary
value creation
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Infrastructure Financing
Of the US$ 93 billion per year the World
Bank estimates that Africa needs to invest
to close its infrastructure gap, just under
half is currently financed, with major
sources being African governments,
multilateral and bilateral sources of finance,
Official Development Assistance (ODA)
and the private sector. According to the
Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostics
(AICD), these sources together contribute
approximately US$ 45 billion per annum,
leaving a gap of about US$ 48 billion per
annum to be financed.
II.
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I. Introduction
The Challenge of Infrastructure
Project Prioritization
1,000-1,400
Private sector
Other developing countries financing
Concessional ODA
800-900
150-250
20-30
20-30
MDB financing
Government budgets
500-600
Note: Sources of finance are split approximately and do not add up to the total annual investment figure.
Source: Split of current sources of finance is the G24s own assessment based on various estimates including Estache (2010),
Multilateral Development Bank G20 Working Group on Infrastructure (2011), Macquarie (2009).
10
<20
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I. Introduction
Figure 3: Annual Infrastructure Spending Requirements in the Developing World (US$ trillion, 2008)
US$1.8-2.3 trillion
35-50%
5-10%
10-15%
US$1.8-2.3 trillion
Transport
15-25%
Telcomms
10-15%
Electricity
45-60%
Water
15-30%
US$1.8-2.3 trillion
Construction
15-25%
Preparation
10-15%
5-10%
20-25%
5-15%
Split by region
Split by sector
Split by phase
Note: The figures represent US$ trillion per year in 2008 real prices, and refer to capital investments only (excluding operation and maintenance costs).
Source: Estimated annual infrastructure spending need for 2020 calculated by taking the Fay et al (2010) estimate of US$ 1.25-1.5 trillion annually in 2013 and assuming a 4% annual growth rate from 201320, and an additional US$ 200-300 billion annual requirement to make the infrastructure sustainable (by providing for climate change mitigation and adaptation). The split by region, sector and phase is the
authors own calculations taking ranges from Yepes (2008), Multilateral Development Bank G20 Working Group on Infrastructure (2011), and Foster and Briceo-Garmendia (2010). Note that the US$ 200300 billion annual requirement for sustainability is assumed to be split in the same ratio as the other investments across regions, sectors and phases.
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I. Introduction
Transportation
12
To modernize the highest priority multimodal African Regional Transport Integration Network (ARTIN)
corridor in East Africa. Will facilitate travel by people and goods across the borders between Kenya,
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a spur to South
Sudan
To modernize the highest priority multimodal ARTIN corridor in southern Africa and facilitate
transport of people and goods across the borders between South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe,
Zambia, Malawi and the DRC
Central Corridor
To modernize the third priority ARTIN corridor in East Africa and facilitate travel for people and
goods across the borders between Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the DRC
To develop sufficient port capacity to handle future demand from both domestic sources and
landlocked countries
Djibouti-Addis Corridor
To revive the rail system in the high-priority multimodal ARTIN corridor in eastern Africa and increase
the flow of goods across the border between Djibouti and Ethiopia
To develop sufficient port capacity to handle future demand from both domestic sources and
landlocked countries, with priority given to the Lamu Gateway in Kenya
To modernize and upgrade the rail and port systems serving a major coal export area at Moatize,
Mozambique. This is part of the Beira and Nacala corridors
To focus on completion of the TAH missing links in Phase I of this continental connectivity
programme
To create a high-level, satellite-based air navigation system for the African continent
To identify countries ready to fully execute YD, and discuss launch of a voluntary open-skies club on
full-membership basis
To develop model smart corridor technology and design/implement a continental and regional
corridor efficiency monitoring system
To modernize the heavily travelled ARTIN corridor in West Africa to promote trade facilitation,
one-stop border posts (OSBPs), capacity enhancement and implementation of public-private
partnership (PPP) in five countries
To modernize the heavily travelled ARTIN corridor in West Africa to promote trade facilitation,
one-stop border posts (OSBPs), capacity enhancement and implementation of public-private
partnership (PPP) in four countries
To improve marine transport and connectivity between island and mainland countries by creating
a new maritime service between regional ports, as well as a modern information system to link the
maritime service with ports and roads in the Dakar-Abidjan Corridor
Abidjan-Ouagadougou/ Bamako
Corridor
To modernize and rehabilitate the multimodal corridor damaged by civil war in Cte dIvoire
To address future capacity problems in West African ports with two components: a regional hub
port and rail linkage master plan, and port expansion
To improve air transport service in West Africa, which is currently limited by the lack of a regional air
hub
To revive river transport in the Congo-Ubangi River Basin, and modernize road transport along the
corridor
To improve regional transportation and trade systems by building a crossing linking Kinshasa and
Brazzaville, thereby ensuring continuity in railway traffic from Matadi and Pointe Noire to the eastern
border of the DRC and Eastern and Southern Africa
To modernize the highest priority multimodal ARTIN corridor in Central Africa and facilitate travel for
people and goods across the borders between Cameroon, Chad and the Central African Republic
To improve air transport service and upgrade airports in Central Africa, which currently lacks a
regional air hub
To address Central African port capacity constraints through a regional hub, a rail linkage master
plan and port expansion
Trans-Maghreb Highway
To improve travel for people and goods across the Maghreb, where trade and travel are limited by
artificial barriers. Will design and implement a smart corridor system along the highway and install
OSBPs
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ICT
Water
Energy
I. Introduction
Nphamda-Nkuwa
To build a hydroelectric power plant with a capacity of 1,500 megawatts (MW) for export to the
Southern African Power Pool market
Batoka
Ruzizi III
To build a hydroelectric plant with a capacity of 145 MW to share power between Rwanda,
Burundi and the DRC
Uganda-Kenya Pipeline
To build a 5,250 MW plant to supply the domestic market in Ethiopia and export electricity to the
Eastern African Power Pool market
To establish a 8,000 km line from Egypt through Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to South Africa
To build a 4,200 MW capacity run-of-the-river hydropower station on the Congo river with eight
turbines in the DRC
To establish a 3,800 km line from the DRC to South Africa through Angola, Gabon and Namibia
to Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon and Chad
Sambagalou
To provide 128 MW of hydropower capacity, 930 km from the mouth of the Gambia river to
supply Senegal, Guinea, Guinea Bissau and The Gambia
To establish a 2,000 km line along the coast connecting with an existing line involving Guinea,
Guinea Bissau, The Gambia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cte dIvoire and Ghana
To establish a 2,700 km line from Morocco to Egypt through Algeria, Tunisia and Libya
Kaleta
Rusumo Falls
Nigeria-Algeria Pipeline
To establish a 4,100 km gas pipeline from Warri to Hassi RMel in Algeria for export to Europe
involving Nigeria, Niger and Algeria
To supply water to Gauteng Province in South Africa via a water transfer programme
Palambo
Fomi
To build a hydropower station in Guinea with irrigation water supply for Mali and regulation of the
Niger river involving 9 countries
Gourbassy
To regulate the Senegal river in 4 countries via a multipurpose dam located in Guinea
Noumbiel
To build a multipurpose dam with hydropower generation component for Burkina Faso and
Ghana
To conduct pre-feasibility studies for the improved use of the aquifer system
To conduct pre-feasibility studies for the improved use of the aquifer system
To improve the environment for the private sector to invest in high-speed broadband
infrastructure
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I. Introduction
Businesses
Multilateral
Organizations,
Development
Banks and
Experts
14
Arup
SNC-Lavalin
Transnet
A.P. Mller-Maersk
Energy
Oando
ABB
GE
Chemicals
Sasol
United Phosphorus
Experts
ML/Development Bank
Other
Philips
Grow Africa Secretariat
Etisalat Group
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Decomposition &
data collection
51 PIDA
projects &
programs
Estimated
100
projects
Threshold-based
grouping
Immediate
Midterm
Longterm
Decompose programs
to ensure projects on
comparable level
Most relevant for
Transportation &
ICT
Clarify linkages
between sectors
16
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Two-lens project
clustering
Fine-tune
project short list
Project A
Project B
Project C
Project D
Project E
Project F
Project G
Project H
Project realization
readiness/capacity:
Project readiness
Regional/country
readiness & capacity
Project value/impact:
Direct project value
Impact & secondary
value creation
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Data quality/
availability
Project
environment
Project
complexity
Stable across
dimensions
allowing shortterm project
execution
Limited
complexity,
considered
manageable as of
today
Gaps in available
data preventing
clustering, likely to
fill gaps mid-term
Current issues in
some aspects,
potential mid-term
improvements
Potential
roadblocks, likely
to be overcome
mid-term
Significant data
gaps, likely
requiring longerterm efforts
Significant risks,
likely requiring
longer-term efforts
Critically high
complexity, likely
requiring longerterm work
Potential
immediate private/
public sector led
acceleration
Potential mid-term
private/ public
sector led
acceleration
Long-term, likely
public sector led
project
acceleration
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Sidebar: Threshold-Based
Grouping of Key Data
Threshold 1. Data Quality and Availability
For a project to become a candidate for
short-term acceleration, its data must be
available and the quality of the data must
be sufficient to allow review. Essential data
requirements include:
Project basics (including scope/
boundaries, key financial information,
the projects stage of development and
timeline)
A breakdown of programme
components to a stand-alone project
level; additional information (including
project impact, technical readiness,
risks, etc.)
Clear sources of data
Project realization
readiness/capacity
Lens B
ii
iv
Project
readiness
Project
impact &
secondary
value
creation
i
18
Project value
creation & impact
iII
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Lens A
Project realization
readiness/capacity
Lens B
ii
iv
Project
readiness
Project
impact &
secondary
value
creation
Project value
creation & impact
iII
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Sidebar: Regional/Country
Readiness and Capacity Criteria
Dimensions
40%
Aspect i:
Regional/ country
readiness &
capacity
Lens A:
Project
realization
readiness/
capacity
Aspect ii:
Project readiness
40%
Economic/ Political
stability
Public sector
readiness &
capacity
20%
Private sector
readiness &
capacity
40%
Project
environment
30%
30%
Project
preparedness
Project complexity
Criteria
30%
Political stability
40%
Economic stability
30%
Rule of law
30%
30%
Government capacity
40%
60%
Access to labor
40%
PPP maturity
50%
30%
20%
Physical environment
30%
40%
30%
40%
60%
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22
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Aspect iii:
Direct project value
50%
Monetary project
value
20%
Strategic value
30%
Aspect iv:
Project impact &
secondary
value creation
Project associated
risks
Lens B:
Project value &
impact
50%
Criteria
Economic impact
20%
Social impact
30%
Environ-mental
impact
20%
60%
20%
20%
40%
40%
Secondary industries
20%
50%
50%
Emission impact
30%
Infrastructure accessibility
30%
40%
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Lens A
Project realization
readiness/capacity
Lens B
ii
iv
Project
readiness
Project
impact &
secondary
value
creation
24
Project value
creation & impact
iII
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Project Readiness
Political project support
Pol. Stability
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
PPP
maturity
Access
to Labor
Economic
Stability
Rule of Law
Account.,
Trans.& C.
Bureau. &
redtape
Coordination
needs &
complexity
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Project policy
environment
Physical
environment
Project plan
readiness
Ext. stakeholder
engage. & align.
Gov. capacity
Example project
Technical demands
& complexity
Average
Example project
Average
Project Impact
Strength of
sponsor/
sovereign
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Capacity building
availability
Infrastructure
project pipeline
Additional local
community impact
Average
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Secondary
industries
Econ.
efficiency gain
Local biodiversity
sensibility
Infrastructure
accessibility
Emission impact
Example project
Average
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26
Financing Dialogue
The financing stream of the African
Development Bank (AfDB)/World
Economic Forum Working Group on
African Infrastructure Financing (Financing
Dialogue) was asked to look into three
fundamental areas within the African
infrastructure financing space:
What new/innovative models are
relevant to finance African infrastructure
projects and how will/should they be
applied in the African context?
Which other entities/regions are
currently developing new/innovative
financing models that could be applied/
advanced in Africa?
How can the BWG contribute to the
development of the required new/
innovative financing models for the pilot
projects to be identified as part of this
work stream?
This brief attempts to address some of
these questions by providing an overview
of some of the innovations and new
products in African project finance and
other efforts currently under way to scale
up infrastructure delivery in Africa. The
following innovative products are assessed
in the context of African financing:
i. Infrastructure bonds: These come in
handy provided an investment grade
rating puts the project within the scope
of international institutional investors
who might otherwise be constrained by
their investment guidelines.
ii. Project preparation facilities: These are
important especially for projects at the
feasibility stage, for increasing the flow
of funds available in the critical early
stages of project development.
iii. Equity: This stream supports the raising
of debt finance, which would typically
cover only 60 to 80% of the cost of
constructing an infrastructure asset.
iv. Guarantee products: Guarantees such
as partial credit guarantee and partial
risk guarantee help leverage ADF
resources to mobilize private sector
financing of non-sovereign projects in
low-income countries.
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Project Cycle
Risk Features
Development
Construction
Completion
Operation
Finance
Providers (include)
Sponsor/ Developer
Equity
Bridge Financing
Construction Equity
Construction Debt
Secondary Market:
Revenues and costs become better
Equity
known once a project is commercially op- Debt
erational. The operational performance of
a company against contractual/commercial targets becomes the main risk. Lenders derive comfort from the experience of
the operator in managing performance.
Source: Structured Finance Conditions for Infrastructure Project Bonds in African Markets, AfDB (2013)
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Concession
Agreement
Recourse Agreement
Equity investors
Sponsor ( developer ,
construction firm, etc.)
Infrastructure funds
Institutional investors
Debt investors
DFIs /ECAs /MDBs
Commercial banks
Capital markets
Guarantees
Subsidies
Off-take Agreement
20-40%
SPV
Project assets and
cash-flows
Dedicated Governance
and Management
60-80%
Financing Agreement
Off-takers
Utilities
Industrial firms
Government (Availability
Payment)
Other Counterparties
EPC Contractors
Equipment suppliers
Input suppliers
Source: Structure Finance Conditions for Infrastructure Project Bonds in African Markets, AfDB (2013)
28
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Country
Regulator
Concentration
Assets
Corporate Bonds
Kenya
Retirement Benefits
Authority (RBA)
17 fund managers
US$ 5 billion
Uganda
Retirement Benefits
Regulatory Authority
US$ 800
million
Tanzania
Nigeria
National Pension
Commission (PenCom)
US$ 14.3
billion
Ghana
National Pensions
Regulatory Authority
SSNIT dominant; 14
PFAs (Pension Fund Administrators) registered
for new fund
US$ 2 billion
South Africa
Namibia
NAMFISA
Botswana
Non-Banking Financial
Institutions Regulatory
Authority
Zambia
Note: (i) denotes 2010; RBA Kenya, Nigerian Pension Commission (Pencom), SSNIT, Ghana excludes GNAT; Financial Services Board (RSA), Botswana International Financial Services Centre, (ii) Conservative estimate: could be up to ZMK 20trn
Source: OECD, WDI, IOPS, Africa Report (Oct. 2012), Discussion with Market Actors
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Conclusions
The above innovations, if implemented and
fully utilized in African infrastructure finance,
would help move more and more African
projects across the value chain. The African
Development Bank has also been looking
to create a broad infrastructure financing
facility with an array of activities covering
advisory services, development equity,
lending and guarantee to help scale up and
complement existing facilities within African
infrastructure financing. This facility would
not just be a financing mechanism but also
a vehicle through which impediments and
bottlenecks in the African project finance
value chain would be addressed.
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Appendix
Two-Lens Clustering Criteria Metrics
Lens A: Project Realization Readiness and Capacity
Aspect: Regional/Country Readiness and Capacity (Axis i)
The criteria used to quantify this aspect are derived from the metrics described below. Regional/country readiness capacity is different
from the other aspects used in the two lenses in that it is largely based on hard historical data. The metrics should be updated as
necessary when new information becomes available.
For purposes of calculating numerical criteria scores, the metrics which are indices are normalized to a scale of 0 to 10.
Criteria
Assessment
Metrics and Sources
Access to labour
PPP maturity
Total private investment in sectors considered in PIDA (data from Public-Private Partnership Advisory Facility, 2011)
Investment in projects cancelled or in distress as a percentage of total investment (Public-Private Partnership
Advisory Facility data, 2011)
Bureaucracy and
red tape
Bureaucracy and red tape (Economist Intelligence Unit expert assessment, 2011)
Government
capacity
Accountability,
transparency and
corruption
Access to labour
PPP maturity
Total private investment in sectors considered in PIDA (Public-Private Partnership Advisory Facility data, 2011)
Investment in projects cancelled or in distress as a percentage of total investment (Public-Private Partnership
Advisory Facility data, 2011)
32
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Assessment
Very low (0 points)
Low (3 points)
Average (5 points)
High (7 points)
Political
project
support
Discouragement
from country
leadership
Strong tensions/
disagreement
between countries
involved
No visible interest
in project from
country leadership
Missing alignment
within country
Limited
disagreement
between countries
involved
Unspecific,
inconsistent
support from
country leadership
Alignment between
involved countries
lacking
Support expected
but no clear
commitment/
unsteady
commitment in the
past
Overall alignment
of involved
countries
Steady support/
championship by
head of state
Written agreement
of all involved
countries
Public support
across hierarchies
Project
policy
environment
Detrimental policy
environment
Significant hurdles
(e.g. restrictions
on operation,
uncommon
taxation)
Generally
unfavourable
environment
Some limited
hurdles
Neutral policy
effect on project
Generally
favourable, stable
environment
Very favourable
policy environment
Tangible support
(e.g. subsidies)
Policies stable/
direction positive
Physical
environment
Project location
with strong
negative cost
impact
Significant hurdles
for implementation
(e.g. lack of local
infrastructure/
access to project
location)
Location
with strong
environmental/
social concerns
Limited unusual
hurdles resulting
in additional
supporting work
Costs above
average
expectations
Challenging
environmental/
social concerns
Supporting
work need in
line with general
expectations
Costs in line with
average project
costs
Environmental/
social concerns
manageable
External
stakeholder
engagement
and
alignment
Key stakeholders
not involved/
engaged
Significant
resistance from
stakeholder groups
Limited and
inconsistent
stakeholder
engagement
Unfavourable
project opinion,
resistance likely
All key
stakeholders
contacted at one
point in project
Neutral response,
limited resistance
expected
Engaged, broad
stakeholder group
Generally
favourable
response, very
limited resistance
expected
Broad, continuous
stakeholder
engagement
Strong support
for project
from external
stakeholder
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Criteria
Assessment
Very low (0 points)
Low (3 points)
Average (5 points)
High (7 points)
Front
loading/
prerequisite
fulfilment
Missing/
inconsistent
project scope
Idea stage
project with key
characteristics
missing
Physical
preparation not
given (e.g. site
readiness)
Unclear
preparation
investment needs
Unclear scope
definition, limited
documentation
Most key project
characteristics
given
Physical
preparation behind
expectations
Preparatory
investment needs
appear unrealistic
Phase-appropriate
project scope,
documentation
available
All key project
characteristics
given
Only limited
physical hurdles
for project
progression
Preparatory
investment needs
clear
Consistent,
phase-appropriate
project scope,
documentation
in line with global
standards
Relevant project
characteristics in
place
No physical
hurdles for project
progression
Clear, well-defined,
consistent scope
of given project
phase
World-class,
reliable
documentation
Project
characteristics
defined and
expected for given
project phase
No physical
hurdles
Project plan
readiness
No project plan
available
In the past
significant delays
in project plans
stuck project
High-level, recent
project plan/
timeline in place
Time estimates
considered realistic
Limited delays in
project progression
in the past
Coordination
needs and
complexity
Missing project
steering structure
No (or rivalling)
project
implementation/
management
entities
Very high number
of involved
countries with
diverse interests
Numerous
regional economic
communities
involved with
unclear division of
responsibility
Management entity
in place, missing
implementation
mandate, potential
lack of resource/
experience
High number of
involved countries
Multiple regional
economic
communities
involved
Untested steering
structure
Technical
demands
and
complexity
Significant,
inherent technical
complexity
Limited
experience,
unparalleled
project type
Very large project
size
High technical
complexity
Limited experience
for project type
implementation
Above average
project size
34
Detailed project
plan and up-todate timeline
Reliable timelines
with clear basis
Only minor
delays in project
progression in the
past
Detailed, clear,
up-to-date project
plan/timeline
Well-grounded
estimate for
implementation
time
Deadlines/plans
met in the past
Management/
implementation
entity in place
Multiple regional
economic
communities
involved, clear lead
and division of
responsibility
Project steering
structure in place
Established,
sufficiently
resourced/
experienced
management/
implementation
entity
Clear project
steering structure
Limited number of
involved countries
Well resourced,
experienced
management/
implementation
entity
Relatively low
number of involved
countries
Proven, effective
project steering
structure
Technical project
complexity in line
with expectations
Proven concept
with several
comparable
successful projects
Medium project
size
Inherent technical
demands
considered rather
low
Established
track record
in comparable
projects
Below average
project size
Standard
technical project
with proven
concept and low
complexity
Significant local
experience in
project type
implementation
Limited project
size
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Very low
(0 points)
Low
(3 points)
Average
(5 points)
High
(7 points)
Very high
(10 points)
Direct &
related
ancillary
project
monetary
value
No hard financial
data/ proxies
available, but
possible to
estimate using
benchmarks
Project possibly
below profitability
expectations,
limited income
streams
Low potential for
ancillary monetary
value creation
Basic financial
data/ proxies
available
Project profitability
in line with
expectations,
project supported
through sufficient
income streams
Potential for
ancillary monetary
value creation, but
limited data
Limited set of
reliable financial
data available,
proxies used
Project likely to be
profitable, showing
comparably high
inherent value/
income streams
Available data
suggests good
ancillary monetary
value creation
potential
Transparent,
reliable financial
data available
Data shows
comparable
project with very
strong inherent
value/income
streams
Well-documented,
reliable information
on comparable
project, very high
ancillary monetary
value creation/
income streams
Market
relevance
and
attractiveness
Market seen as
Market showing
very below
average attractiveness indicators
(e.g. GDP, per
capita income)
Infrastructure
project
pipeline
No or unreliable
project pipeline for
the region
Negative track
record of realizing
project pipeline
development
Market seen as
offering limited
value
Market showing
below average
attractiveness
indicators (e.g.
GDP, per capita
income)
Unclear project
pipeline for the
region
Mixed track record
for past project
realization
Pipeline projects of
limited interest/not
comparable with
current project
attractiveness
indicators (e.g.
GDP, per capita
income)
Project pipeline in
place
Overall good track
record for project
realization in the
past
Pipeline projects
of average
interest/ generally
comparable with
current project
Market seen as
Market showing
above average
attractiveness
indicators (e.g.
GDP, per capita
income)
Reliable project
pipeline in place
Above average
track record for
project realization
Pipeline projects
seen as valuable
to broad range
of parties,
comparable to
project at hand
Highly valuable
market, key priority
market for a broad
range of parties
Market showing
highly above
average attractiveness indicators
(e.g. GDP, per
capita income)
African_Strategic_Infrastructure.indd 35
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Assessment
Criteria
Very low
(0 points)
Low
(3 points)
Average
(5 points)
High
(7 points)
Very high
(10 points)
High-level
documentation of
business case
All key data
plausible and with
reliable sources
Calculations
considered reliable
Average
(5 points)
Good
understanding of
project risks
All key project
risks covered
by mitigation
instruments
Remaining
risks seen as
manageable
Business case
missing minor data
Plausible,
consistent
calculations
Sources for main
assumptions
documented
Low
(7 points)
Project risks well
understood
Limited key
risks, all covered
by mitigation
instruments
Limited overall risk
exposure
Very low
(0 points)
Direct
community
benefits
(i.e.
employment,
public
revenue)
Potential for
secondary
industries
Negative impact
(i.e. loss of
employment
opportunities,
deterioration of
local livelihood)
No or negligible
effect
Deterrence
of secondary
industries
No effect or
negligible effect
Decreased
efficiency
(i.e. increased
costs, process
slowdowns)
No effect or
negligible effect
Economic
efficiency
gains (i.e.
speedier
processes,
lower costs,
increased
supply
security)
Infrastructure
accessibility
Capacitybuilding
ability
No capacitybuilding effect
36
No usage benefit
for local people
Low (3 points)
Average (5 points)
Medium effect
across areas
Strong positive
effect in single area
High (7 points)
Strong effect in
some but not all
areas
Strong positive
impact across most
areas
No areas negatively
or not affected
Limited potential
Medium potential
Good potential in
single sector
Good potential
Very strong
potential in single
sector
Very strong
potential for diverse
sectors
Limited effect on
efficiency
Medium effects in
several areas
Strong gains in one
area
High efficiency
gains
Potential
attractiveness for
businesses
Accessibility for a
significant number
of people
Costs affordable
by local majority
standards
Accessibility
ensured for entire
local population
Negligible cost or
free of charge
Medium capacity
building at local
level
Including nonemployees
Large-scale
capacity building
Including nonemployees
Beyond local level
(e.g. sponsorship
of university
programmes)
Widely spread
accessibility,
affordable only for
some
Affordable pricing,
but access locally
restricted
Only secondary
Limited capacity
effects (i.e. allowing
building
easier access to
Only for project
education from
employees
other sources)
African_Strategic_Infrastructure.indd 36
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Criteria
Local
community
impact (i.e.
resettlement, impact
on cultivated
or cultural
areas)
Assessment
Very low (0 points)
Low (3 points)
Average (5 points)
High (7 points)
Negative effect
(i.e. resettlement
for large number of
people, destruction
of farmland)
No effect or
negligible effect
Medium effect
across areas
Strong positive
effect in single area
Strong positive
effect in some but
not all areas
All potential
negative aspects
clearly counterbalanced (e.g.
irrigation scheme
for new agricultural
sites)
Strong positive
impact across
most areas
No effect or no
aspect negatively
affected
High (3 points)
Average (5 points)
Low (7 points)
Local
biodiversity
sensitivity
Clearly negative
impact
Uncertain impact
Very difficult
mitigation, or no
mitigation possible
Clear-cut impact
Manageable
effects
Limited effects
Easily manageable
No effects or
negligible effects
Emissions
impact
Small increase in
emissions
Indirect increase
in emissions (i.e.
increased traffic)
Similar to generally
projected
development
No change on
emissions balance
Improvement in
emissions balance
Emissions-free
project
Significant
improvement in
emissions balance
Significant
increase in
emissions
African_Strategic_Infrastructure.indd 37
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List of Figures
Figure 1: Four Steps of Project Selection Methodology
Figure 2: Annual Infrastructure Spending by Sources Compared
to Needs 2020
Figure 3: Annual Infrastructure Spending Requirements in the
Developing World
Figure 4: Overview of Business Working Group Members
Figure 5: Four Steps of Project Selection Methodolog
Figure 6: Initial Grouping Thresholds
Figure 7: Example of Two-Lens Project Clustering
Figure 8: Two-Lens Clustering Example
Figure 9: Breakdown of Lens A: Project Realization, Readiness
and Capacity
Figure 10: Breakdown of Lens B: Project Value and Impact
Figure 11: Scoring Example
Figure 12: Breakdown of Example Scores by Aspect
Figure 13: The Typical Project Finance Structure
List of Tables
Sidebar 1: Overview of 51 PIDA PAP Programmes/Projects
Sidebar 2: Threshold-Based Grouping of Key Data
Sidebar 3: Simplifying the Methodology
Sidebar 4: Regional/Country Readiness and Capacity Criteria
Sidebar 5: Project Readiness Criteria
Sidebar 6: Direct Project Value
Sidebar 7: Project Impact and Secondary Value Creation
Table 1: Financing Activities over Project Cycle
Table 2: Summary of Selected Pension Sectors
Aspect 1: Regional/Country Readiness and Capacity (Axis i)
Aspect 2: Project Readiness (Axis ii)
Aspect 3: Direct Project Value (Axis iii)
Aspect 4: Project Impact and Secondary Value Creation (Axis iv)
38
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List of Abbreviations
ADF
African Development Fund
AFD
French Development Agency
AfDB
African Development Bank
AICD
Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostics
ARTIN
African Regional Transport Infrastructure
Network
AU
African Union
AUC
African Union Commission
AUM
Assets Under Management
BOOT
Build, Own, Operate and Transfer
BPOPF
Botswana Public Officers Pension Fund
BWG
Business Working Group
CAF
Central African Republic
CAPP
Central African Power Pool
CEEAC
Economic Community of Central African States
(ECCAS)
CEN-SAD
Sahel-Saharan States
COMESA
Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa
DBSA
Development Bank of South Africa
DEG
German Development and Investment
Corporation
DFI
Development Finance Institution
DRC
Democratic Republic of Congo
EAC
East African Community
EAPP
Eastern African Power Pool
EBID
ECOWAS Bank for Investment and
Development
ECCAS
Economic Community of Central African States
ECOWAS
Economic Community of West African States
EIB
European Investment Bank
FMO
Netherlands Development Finance Company
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GEPF
Government Employees Pension Fund (South
Africa)
GIPF
Government Institutions Pension Fund (Namibia)
GNAT
Ghana National Association of Teachers
GSM
Global System for Mobile Communications
IATA
International Air Transport Association
ICA
Infrastructure Consortium for Africa
ICAO
International Civil Aviation Organization
ICT
Information and Communications Technology
IFC
International Finance Corporation
IFI
International Financial Institution
IGAD
Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IPP Independent Power Producer
IPPF
Infrastructure Project Preparation Facility (of the
NEPAD)
IXP
Internet Exchange Point
LIC
Lower Income Country
MDB
Multilateral Development Bank
MoU
Memorandum of Understanding
NAMFISA
Namibia Financial Institutions Supervisory
Authority
NAPSA
National Pension Scheme Authority (Zambia)
NEPAD
New Partnership for Africas Development
NGO
Non-Governmental Organization
NSSF
National Social Security Fund
ODA
Official Development Assistance
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development
OSBP
One-Stop Border Post
PAP
Priority Action Plan
PCG
Partial Credit Guarantee
PFA
Pension Fund Administrator
PIDA
Programme for Infrastructure Development in
Africa
PPP
Public-Private Partnership
PRG
Partial Risk Guarantee
RBA
Retirement Benefits Authority
REC
Regional Economic Communities
SADC
Southern African Development Community
SAPP
Southern African Power Pool
SARA
Southern African Railways Association
SBP
Strategic Business Plan
SEIA
Social and Environmental Impact Assessment
SPV
Special Purpose Vehicle
SSNIT
Social Security and National Insurance Trust
(Ghana)
TAH
Trans-African Highway
TWh
Terawatt-hours
UMA
Union du Maghreb Arabe
UNECA
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
WAPP
West African Power Pool
WB
World Bank
WDI
World Development Indicators
WESTCOR
Western Power Corridor
YD
Yamoussoukro Decision
African_Strategic_Infrastructure.indd 39
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Endnotes
World Economic Forum, Strategic Infrastructure: Steps to
Prioritize and Deliver Infrastructure Effectively and Efficiently,
September 2012, p iii.
10
11
12
13
14
15
40
African_Strategic_Infrastructure.indd 40
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References
An Africa Infrastructure Bond. African Development Bank.
Bhattacharya, Amar, Mattia Romani, and Nicholas Stern.
Infrastructure for development: meeting the challenge. CCCEP,
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the
Environment and G 24 (2012).
Country Profiles, International Organization of Pension Supervisors
(IOPS) www.oecd.org/site/iops/
Estache, Antonio. Infrastructure finance in developing countries:
An overview. EIB Papers 15.2 (2010): 60-88.
Fay, Marianne; Iimi, Atsushi and Perrissin-Fabert, Baptiste,
Financing Greener and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure in
Developing Countries--Challenges and Opportunities EIB Papers
Volume 15 (p34-58), 2010
Foster, Vivien; Briceo-Garmendia, Cecilia, Africas Infrastructure A Time for Transformation, 2010
Macquarie Bank (2009). Annual Report.
Mbeng Mezui, Cdric Achille. Accessing Local Markets for
Infrastructure: Lessons for Africa. African Development Bank
Group, Working paper series No. 153, October 2012.
Pension Markets in Focus, September 2012. Paris: OECD
Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs,
Strategic Infrastructure: Steps to Prioritize and Deliver Infrastructure
Effectively and Efficiently. September, 2012. Geneva: World
Economic Forum.
Structure Finance Conditions for Infrastructure Project Bonds in
African Markets, African Development Bank. 2013.
Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa
(PIDA): Africa Infrastructure Outlook 2040 ,. African Development
Bank Group, 2011. http://www.pidafrica.org/Africa%20
Infrastructure%20Outlook%202040.pdf
Supporting Infrastructure in Developing Countries, MDB Working
Group on Infrastructure (2011). Submission to the G20
Investments and Pension reforms around Africa: Wake up,
domestic giants!, The Africa Report (Oct. 2012) http://www.
theafricareport.com/North-Africa/investments-and-pensionreforms-around-africa-wake-up-domestic-giants.html
Yepes, Tito. Investment Needs for Infrastructure in Developing
Countries 2008-15. World Bank, unpublished draft (2008).
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Contributors
Initiative Partners
A.P. Mller-Maersk
Lars Reno Jakobsen
Senior Vice-President, Group
Representative Sub-Saharan Africa
ABB
Nthabiseng Dube
Director, Marketing and Communications
Absa Capital
Raj Shah
Head, Sovereign and Public Sector Clients,
Sub-Saharan Africa
Actis
David Grylls
Partner, Energy
African Rainbow Minerals (ARM)
Imrhan Paruk
Executive, Corporate Development
AngloGold Ashanti
Zandie Mlambo
Government Relations Manager, Business
Sustainability
Yedwa Simelane
Senior Vice-President, Corporate Affairs
ArcelorMittal
Chifipa Mhango
Chief Economist, Africa
Arup
Richard Deh
Associate Director, Marketing and Business
Development
Edmund Katiti
Head, ICT
Elsabeth T. Tedros
Senior Investment Officer, Programme
Implementation and Coordination
Directorate
Etisalat Group
Pratap Ghose
Vice-President, Finance and Business
Optimization, Africa Region, Etisalat Group
John Tambi
Transport and Infrastructure Expert
Adama Deen
Head, Infrastructure Programmes and
Projects
42
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Sun Group
Vaidyanathan Sivakumar
Executive Director
Transnet
Mervin Chetty
General Manager, Africa Strategy
United Phosphorus (UPL)
Jaidev R. Shroff
Chief Executive Officer
Vale
Olivier Rwamasirabo
Corporate Affairs Manager, Africa
Bareja Youmssi
Mineral Rights Manager, Exploration EMEA
and West Asia
Experts to the African Strategic
Infrastructure Business Working Group
African Capacity Building Foundation
Frannie Leautier
Executive Director
Franklin Mutahakana
Senior Programme Officer
Infrastructure Consortium for Africa (ICA)
Mohamed H.Hassan
ICA Coordinator
Peter Fernandes Cardy
Infastructure Expert
International Finance Corporation (IFC)
Linda Munyengeterwa
Senior Investment Officer, Infrastructure,
Sub-Sahara Africa
Ram Mahidira
Portfolio Manager, Infrastructure, ICT and
Natural Resources, Sub-Saharan Africa
Mo Ibrahim Foundation
Nathalie Delapalme
Director, Research and Policy
Project Team
Henrik Emmert
Project Manager, African Strategic
Infrastructure Initiative, Infrastructure &
Urban Development Industries
Marie Lam Frendo
Senior Project Manager, African Strategic
Infrastructure Initiative, Infrastructure &
Urban Development Industries
Guido Battaglia
Project Manager, African Strategic
Infrastructure Initiative, Infrastructure &
Urban Development Industries
Marius Hugo
Senior Community Manager Africa
Membership
Reuben Coulter
Senior Community Manager Africa
Editors
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