DallasTX Comp 16

C O M P R E H E N S I V E
H O U S I N G
M A R K E T
A N A L Y S I S
Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Cooke
Grayson
Office of Policy Development and Research
As of August 1, 2015
Denton
Collin
Hunt
Rockwall
Tarrant
Rains
Dallas
Kaufman
Van Zandt
Johnson
Ellis
Henderson
Hill
Navarro
Housing Market Area
Hopkins
Wise
Delta
Fannin
The Dallas-Plano-Irving Housing Market Area (hereafter, the Dallas HMA) is coterminous with the DallasPlano-Irving, TX Metropolitan Division. For purposes
of this analysis, the HMA is divided into three submarkets: (1) the Dallas County submarket; (2) the CollinDenton Counties submarket, which includes Collin and
Denton Counties; and (3) the Southeastern Counties
submarket, which consists of Ellis, Hunt, Kaufman,
and Rockwall Counties.
Summary
Economy
Sales Market
Rental Market
Economic conditions in the Dallas

HMA are among the strongest in the
nation. During the 12 months ending
July 2015, nonfarm payrolls increased
by 92,700, or 4.1 percent, which is
significantly higher than the national
rate of growth of 2.2 percent. The
current unemployment rate of 4.2
percent is well below the national
average of 5.6 percent. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to increase at an
average annual rate of 2.7 percent
during the 3-year forecast period.
The sales housing market in the Dallas

HMA is currently tight, with a 1.0percent vacancy rate, down significantly from 2.1 percent in April 2010.
New and existing home sales in the
HMA totaled 95,400 during the 12
months ending July 2015, an increase
of 2,000, or 2 percent, from the previous 12 months. The average sales
price was $305,600, an increase of
nearly 15 percent from the previous
12 months. Demand is forecast for
56,550 new homes during the next
3 years (Table 1). The 6,495 homes
currently under construction and a
portion of the estimated 33,900
other vacant housing units that will
likely reenter the sales market will
satisfy some of the demand during
the forecast period.
The rental housing market in the

Dallas HMA is slightly tight, with an
overall vacancy rate of 6.6 percent,
down from 11.1 percent during 2010.
The apartment market is also slightly
tight, with a 7.3-percent vacancy rate
and rents averaging $1,016, an increase of 7 percent since 2010 (ALN
Systems, Inc.). During the 12 months
ending July 2015, the absorption of
apartment units averaged 1,475 units
a month, up from 870 units a month
during the previous 12 months. During the next 3 years, demand is expected for 54,550 new market-rate
rental units; the 18,505 units currently
under construction will satisfy a
portion of the demand (Table 1).
Market Details
Economic Conditions.......................... 2
Population and Households................ 7
Housing Market Trends..................... 10
Data Profiles...................................... 23
Summary Continued
Table 1. Housing Demand in the Dallas HMA* During the Forecast Period
D a l l a s - P l a n o - I r v i n g , T X C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
Dallas
HMA*
Dallas County
Submarket
Collin-Denton Counties
Submarket
Southeastern Counties
Submarket
Sales
Units
Rental
Units
Sales
Units
Rental
Units
Sales
Units
Rental
Units
Sales
Units
Rental
Units
Total demand
56,550
54,550
15,250
30,950
34,900
22,000
6,400
1,600
Under
construction
6,495
18,505
1,475
10,650
4,600
7,325
420
530
* Dallas-Plano-Irving HMA.
Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast
period. Sales demand in the Southeastern Counties submarket includes an estimated demand for 200 mobile homes. Units
under construction as of August 1, 2015. A portion of the estimated 33,900 other vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy
some of the forecast demand. The forecast period is August 1, 2015, to August 1, 2018.
Source: Estimates by analyst
Economic Conditions
he Dallas HMA is home to 19

Fortune 500 companies, including such well-known names as ExxonMobil Corporation, AT&T Inc., and
J.C. Penney Company, Inc. The HMA
is also headquarters for many telecommunications and computer technology
firms, such as Affiliated Computer
Services, Inc., and Texas Instruments
Inc. The HMA also has a large number
of jobs in the finance and insurance
industries and has always played a role
Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Dallas HMA,*
by Sector
12 Months Ending
Total nonfarm payroll jobs
Goods-producing sectors
Mining, logging, & construction
Manufacturing
Service-providing sectors
Wholesale & retail trade
Transportation & utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health services
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
July 2014
July 2015
Absolute
Change
Percent
Change
2,258,900
283,100
118,100
165,000
1,975,800
368,100
80,500
68,400
207,000
413,000
272,800
220,000
77,800
268,200
2,351,600
291,000
125,400
165,600
2,060,600
379,900
85,200
68,700
215,000
439,700
286,300
231,600
79,200
275,000
92,700
7,900
7,300
600
84,800
11,800
4,700
300
8,000
26,700
13,500
11,600
1,400
6,800
4.1
2.8
6.2
0.4
4.3
3.2
5.8
0.4
3.9
6.5
4.9
5.3
1.8
2.5
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Based on 12-month
averages through July 2014 and July 2015.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
in the oil industry. The city of Dallas

and surrounding areas first began to
develop as a trading location for cotton,
with many railroad lines in the area.
With the expansion of the Interstate
Highway System, the HMA remained
an important center for logistics and
trade because of its location in the middle of the country and along interstates
that run from Mexico to Canada.
Economic conditions remained strong
during the 12 months ending July 2015,
as nonfarm payrolls increased by
92,700, or 4.1 percent, to more than
2.35 million (Table 2). From 2011 to
the current date, nonfarm payrolls in
the HMA increased by an average of
66,600, or 3.1 percent, annually. By
comparison, nonfarm payrolls nationally increased an average of only 1.7
percent annually during the same period.
The unemployment rate in the HMA
is currently 4.2 percent, which is down
from 5.5 percent 1 year earlier and
down from the recent peak level of 8.0
percent during 2010. Figure 1 shows
the trends in the labor force, resident
employment, and the unemployment
rate in the HMA from 2000 through
2014.
Job growth is occurring in all employment sectors of the Dallas HMA, with
the professional and business services
sector leading growth during the 12
months ending July 2015, increasing
by 26,700, or 6.5 percent. The professional and business services sector is
also the largest employment sector in
the HMA with 439,700 jobs and accounts for 18.7 percent of all nonfarm
payroll jobs (Figure 2). This sector has
had numerous recent expansions, with
the largest being professional services
firm Towers Watson. In October of
2013, Towers Watson announced they
were hiring 1,600 benefits advisors, with
hiring completed in the spring of 2015.
In addition to the Towers Watson expansion, several other large-scale corporate expansions and relocations have
been announced in the Dallas HMA
during the past 2 years. Many of the
firms that are relocating or expanding
10.0
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
09
Resident employment
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Labor force
05
0.0
04
2.0
1,625,000
03
4.0
1,825,000
02
6.0
2,025,000
01
8.0
2,225,000
00
2,425,000
Unemployment rate
Figure 2. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Dallas HMA,* by Sector

Government 11.7%
Mining, logging, & construction 5.3%

Manufacturing 7.0%
Other services 3.4%

Leisure & hospitality 9.8%
Wholesale & retail trade 16.2%
Transportation & utilities 3.6%
Education & health services 12.2%
Information 2.9%
Financial activities 9.1%
Professional & business services 18.7%
Note: Based on 12-month averages through July 2015.
Unemployment rate
Figure 1. T
rends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment Rate in the Dallas HMA,* 2000 Through 2014
Labor force and
resident employment
Economic Conditions Continued
are building new office complexes,

which have contributed to the increase
in construction jobs in the HMA. The
mining, logging, and construction
sector, in percentage terms, was the
second fastest growing sector in the
HMA, increasing 6.2 percent, or by
7,300 jobs, to 125,400 during the 12
months ending July 2015. The HMA
is also one of the leading areas in the
nation for new residential construction
activity, which is driven by firms that
are relocating to the HMA and the
subsequent net in-migration. In addition to the commercial and residential
construction activity, several large-scale
highway infrastructure projects have
commenced, constituting more than
$4 billion of ongoing capital investment
in the HMA.
The Dallas HMA is a major aviation
transportation hub for the nation.
The Dallas-Fort Worth International
Airport (DFW airport), on the Dallas
County-Tarrant County border, is the
third busiest airport in the nation and
a hub for American Airlines. DFW
airport has a more than $31 billion
impact on the local economy and
directly or indirectly supports more
than 143,000 permanent jobs, which
includes the 60,000 people who work
in the airport every day (2013 study by
the University of North Texas, Center
for Economic Development and Research). In addition to DFW airport,
the HMA has Dallas Love Field airport in the city of Dallas, which serves
as the headquarters for Southwest Airlines. In addition to the airline workers,
numerous trucking companies are
located in the HMA to take advantage
of the transportation networks. These
factors contributed to employment in
the transportation and utilities sector
increasing by 4,700 jobs, or 5.8 per
cent, to 85,200 during the 12 months
ending July 2015. Some of the most
recently announced expansions in this

sector include Southwest Airlines,
which announced in October 2012 that
it was adding 1,000 jobs to service
increased air traffic out of Love Field
with the expiration of the Wright
Amendment in October 2014. Also
contributing to employment growth in
the transportation and utilities sector
was a new FedEx Express distribution
center in Irving, Dallas County, which
opened during 2014 and created more
than 100 new jobs.
The education and health services

sector has been the fastest growing
employment sector in the HMA since
2000, as population growth has resulted
in an increased demand for healthcare
services (Figure 3). Since 2001, this
sector has increased by an average of
8,300 jobs, or 3.8 percent, annually.
During the 12 months ending July
2015, the education and health services
sector increased by 13,500 jobs, or 4.9
percent, to 286,300, the second largest
job gain by sector. Baylor Health Care
Figure 3. Sector Growth in the Dallas HMA,* Percentage Change, 2000 to Current
Total nonfarm payroll jobs
Goods-producing sectors
Mining, logging, & construction
Manufacturing
Service-providing sectors
Wholesale & retail trade
Information
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
40
20
20
40
60
80
Note: Current is based on 12-month averages through July 2015.
Table 3. Major Employers in the Dallas HMA*

Name of Employer
Baylor Health Care System
Bank of America
City of Dallas
JP Morgan Chase NA
Texas Instruments Inc.
University of Texas Southwestern
Medical Center
HCA North Texas Division
University of North Texas
Southwest Airlines
Verizon Communications
Nonfarm Payroll Sector
Number of
Employees

Government
Government
22,000
15,400
13,000
13,000
13,000
11,650

Government
Information
11,600
10,000
8,350
8,100
Notes: Excludes local school districts. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., with 52,700 employees,
is the largest employer in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical
Area, but numbers for the Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Metropolitan Division were not
available; therefore, Wal-Mart is not included in this table.
Source: Dallas Business Journal, University of North Texas.
System is the largest employer in this

sector and in the HMA, with 22,000
employees (Table 3).
The leisure and hospitality sector had
the fourth largest job gain during the
12 months ending July 2015, increasing
by 11,600 jobs, or 5.3 percent. A large
portion of this increase is attributable
to new restaurants as people in the
Dallas HMA dine out more than the
average American. People in the HMA
allocate 6.1 percent of total spending
on eating out, which is the highest
rate in the nation (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, Consumer Expenditure
Survey).
Contributing to the large expenditure
on dining out in the HMA is the presence of many high-paying jobs. The
city of Dallas is a major center for
employment in the financial activities
sector. Job growth in the financial
activities sector was fairly strong during the 12 months ending July 2015,
increasing by 8,000 jobs, or 3.9
percent, to 215,000. Bank of America
and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are
two of the leading employers in
the HMA, with 15,400 and 13,000
employees, respectively. Capital One
Financial Corporation, which has a
large campus in Collin County with
5,900 employees, added 400 employees during 2014 with the completion
of its sixth building on campus. The
seventh building, which will be able
to accommodate 1,200 employees, is
scheduled to break ground in the fall
of 2015. Another major expansion
was announced by LoanDepot, Inc.,
an online mortgage lender head
quartered in the city of Plano. The
firm announced in 2013 that it would
add 1,000 new jobs by 2016.
The Dallas HMA has not always experienced such robust economic growth.
After strong growth during the 1990s
that carried over through 2001, the
HMA experienced an economic downturn in part because of the Telecom
bust. From the end of 2001 through
2003, nonfarm payrolls declined by
an average of 47,400, or 2.4 percent,
and the unemployment rate increased
from 4.8 to 6.8 percent. Job losses were
the most severe in the information
sector, which declined by an average
of 10,100, or 10.5 percent, annually
during the same period. From 2004
through 2008, nonfarm payrolls in
the HMA recovered and increased by

annually, led by growth in the professional and business services sector,
which increased by an average of
16,300 jobs, or 5.3 percent, annually.
During the same period, population
growth in the HMA contributed to
increased demand for healthcare services, which led to the education and
health services sector increasing by an
average of 8,400 jobs, or 4.2 percent,
annually. During 2009, the local economy declined because of the national
economic downturn, with nonfarm
payrolls down by 83,300, or 3.9 percent, to 2.04 million jobs. The hardest
hit employment sector was the professional and business services sector,
which declined by 25,200 jobs, or 7.0
percent, to 335,400. The unemployment rate in the Dallas HMA climbed
from 5.0 percent during 2008 to 7.8
percent during 2009. The HMA began
to slowly recover some of the job losses
during 2010, as nonfarm payrolls increased by 3,400, or less than 0.2 percent.
Employment growth should remain
strong through the 3-year forecast
period, because numerous large-scale
projects are currently under way. The
Cypress Waters development, in the
city of Dallas, is a $3.5 billion mixeduse development on 1,000 acres of land
that will eventually contain 4 million
square feet of office, retail, and dining
space and more than 10,000 housing
units when complete in 2020. Toyota
Industries Commercial Finance Inc.
is relocating its U.S. headquarters to
Cypress Waters and will create 150
new jobs. CoreLogic, Inc., is relocating
1,300 employees from the north Texas
area to its new Cypress Waters office
and will be moving about 200 more
people in from out of state. In addition
to the jobs being created at Cypress
Waters, numerous new developments
are under way in the Dallas County

submarket. Active Network, LLC, is
relocating its corporate headquarters
in the fall of 2015 and bringing more
than 1,000 jobs to the city of Dallas.
Amazon.com Inc. is also expanding,
with a new distribution center in south
Dallas and plans to add 1,500 new
workers by 2017.
The Dallas County submarket has traditionally been the employment hub
of the HMA, but as the population in
creases many more large development
projects are occurring to the north in
Collin County, which has contributed
to the expanding employment base.
State Farm in 2013 began construction
of a four-building campus with 2 million square feet of office to serve as its
regional hub office and is in the process
of adding more than 8,000 workers in
the HMA, with completion of the hiring by the end of 2016. Toyota is moving its North American headquarters
from California to the city of Plano,
also in Collin County, and is constructing a new $300 million campus that
will house 4,000 to 5,000 employees.
Toyotas campus is adjacent to the
$2 billion mixed-use development
Legacy West, which began construction
in early 2015 and includes 800,000
square feet of office space. Moving
in to the Legacy West development is
Liberty Mutual, which is consolidating 5,000 employees from across the
country to this new office.
The Toyota campus and the Legacy
West development are south of the
intersection of the North Dallas and
Sam Rayburn Tollways. Immediately
north of this intersection, in the city
of Frisco, is a series of four separate
developments known together as the
$5 billion mile. The largest of these
four projects is Frisco Station, a $1.7
billion development on 242 acres that
will include two hotels and several new

office towers. The anchor for all these
projects is The Star, a $1 billion development that is a joint venture of the
Dallas Cowboys, The city of Frisco,
and the Frisco Independent School
District. This development will include the new corporate headquarters
and practice facilities of the Dallas
Cowboys, the most valuable sports
franchise in the world, which is worth
$4 billion (Forbes Magazine). The
Dallas Cowboys practice facility will
include a 12,000-seat indoor stadium,
which will also be used occasionally
by the local school district for high
school football games and other events.
An Omni hotel in The Star development will accommodate tourists who
attend Dallas Cowboys practices. In
total, when all four developments in
the $5 billion mile are complete, it will
comprise more than 12 million square
feet of office space; 1.32 million square
feet of retail, restaurant, and entertainment space; 490,000 square feet of
medical office space; and 820 hotel
rooms within multiple hotels. It is expected that more than 10,000 construction jobs will be created as a result
of these projects, with an additional
12,000 full-time jobs when complete.
During the next 3 years, nonfarm
payrolls are expected to increase 2.7
percent annually, with the strongest
growth during the first year of the
forecast period. The rate of nonfarm
payroll growth, although still relatively
strong, will continue to slow each year
during the forecast period from the
very rapid rate of growth that occurred
since 2011. The professional and
business services and the educational
and health services sectors are likely
to continue to be among the strongest
growing sectors in the HMA.
Population and Households

he population of the Dallas
HMA is currently estimated
at more than 4.7 million, an average
increase of 90,100, or 2.0 percent,
annually since 2010. Net in-migration
has averaged 50,700 since 2010, accounting for more than 56 percent of
all population growth. The slowest
period of population growth in the
HMA was from 2000 through 2004
(U.S. Census Bureau decennial census
counts and population estimates, as of
July 1), as the population increased by
annually. Population growth averaged
85,300 people, or 2.2 percent, annually
from 2004 through 2010. Figure 4
Figure 4. Components of Population Change in the Dallas HMA,*
2000 to Forecast
Average annual change
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000 to 2010
2010 to current
Net natural change
Current to forecast
Net migration
Notes: The current date is August 1, 2015. The forecast date is August 1, 2018.
Sources: 2000 and 20102000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast
estimates by analyst
Figure 5. Population and Household Growth in the Dallas HMA,*

2000 to Forecast
100,000
90,000
80,000
Average annual change
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000 to 2010
2010 to current
Population
Current to forecast
Households
Notes: The current date is August 1, 2015. The forecast date is August 1, 2018.
Sources: 2000 and 20102000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast
estimates by analyst
shows the components of population

change in the HMA from 2000 through
the 3-year forecast period. Nearly 1.7
million households are in the HMA,
an increase of 32,600, or 2.0 percent,
annually since 2010. Figure 5 shows
population and household growth
in the HMA from 2000 through the
forecast period. Tables DP-1 through
DP-4 at the end of this report provide
additional economic, population, and
household data for the HMA as a
whole and for each submarket.
The Dallas County submarket, which
is the largest submarket in the HMA,
has a population currently estimated
at 2.56 million. Since 2010, the population of the submarket has increased
by an average of 35,600, or 1.5 percent, annually, with net in-migration
averaging 11,700 people annually. The
most recent population growth rate is
significantly higher than the average
increase of 14,900, or 0.7 percent, annually from 2000 through 2010, when
net out-migration from the county
averaged 14,450 annually.
Urban living in denser developments
has become more desirable in the
Dallas County submarket since 2010.
Population growth in the city of Dallas,
which is ninth-largest city in the nation
with a July 2014 population estimate of
more than 1.28 million, has increased
significantly since 2010. From 2000 to
2010, the population of the city of
Dallas increased by an average of 920,
or 0.1 percent, annually, but since
2010 it has averaged an increase of
20,800, or 1.7 percent, annually. The
growth in the Dallas County submarket is being driven in part by the
expansion of the light-rail line and an
increasing number of services in the
downtown area of the city of Dallas
and other nearby neighborhoods.
Population and Households Continued
Also, rent growth has been stronger in

the Collin-Denton Counties submarket
since 2010 than in the Dallas County
submarket, narrowing the disparity in
rents between the two submarkets and
making the Dallas County submarket
slightly more desirable.
The Dallas County submarket currently
has 924,100 households, up by an average of 12,800, or 1.4 percent, since
April 2010. The current rate of household formation is above the average of
4,825 from 2000 through 2010. Renter
households have accounted for nearly
85 percent of household formation in
the submarket since 2010. This sharp
increase in the formation of renter
households has caused the homeown
ership rate to decline from 53.2 percent in 2010 to 50.1 percent currently
(Figure 6). During the forecast period,
the population of the submarket is
expected to increase by 32,350, or 1.2
percent, annually, with households increasing 11,550, or 1.2 percent annually.
The Collin-Denton Counties submar
ket has been the fastest growing submarket in the HMA since 2000, but the
rate of growth is slowing slightly as
more people are choosing to live closer
to the city of Dallas. The population
Figure 6. Number of Households by Tenure in the Dallas County
Submarket, 2000 to Current
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000
2010
Renter
Current
Owner
Note: The current date is August 1, 2015.

Sources: 2000 and 20102000 Census and 2010 Census; currentestimates by analyst
is currently estimated at nearly 1.7

million, an increase of 47,050, or 3.0
percent, annually since 2010. Net inmigration has averaged 33,700 people
annually and accounted for nearly 72
percent of population growth since
2010. Although this rate of growth is
the highest in the HMA of any of the
submarkets, it has slowed from earlier
periods. From 2000 to 2006 (Census
Bureau decennial census counts and
population estimates, as of July 1),
population increased by an average of
55,000, or 5.2 percent, annually. During this time, net in-migration to the
Collin-Denton Counties submarket
averaged 40,650 and accounted for
74 percent of all population growth.
From 2006 to 2010, population growth
slowed to an average of 47,050, or 3.5
percent, annually, with net in-migration
declining to an average of 31,700 peo
ple, which accounted for 67 percent
of population growth.
The Collin-Denton Counties submarket currently has 615,900 households,
which is an increase of nearly 17,200,
or 3.1 percent, since 2010. Between
2000 and 2010, the number of households increased by 18,300, or 4.4 percent, annually. From 2000 to 2010,
the homeownership rate increased
slightly from 66.7 to 66.8 percent, but
since 2010 the homeownership rate
has declined to 63.3 percent in this
submarket as nearly 60 percent of new
household formations since 2010 were
renter households (Figure 7). During
the forecast period, the population of
is expected to increase by 47,000, or
2.7 percent, annually with the number
households increasing by an average
of 17,350, or 2.7 percent, annually.
The population of the Southeastern
Counties submarket is currently estimated at 457,300. Since 2010, the
Population and Households Continued
Figure 7. Number of Households by Tenure in the Collin-Denton

Counties Submarket, 2000 to Current
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000
2010
Renter
Current
Owner

population has increased by an average of 7,475, or 1.7 percent, annually

and net in-migration has averaged
5,300 people annually. The recent rate
of population growth is much slower
than in earlier periods. From 2000 to
2007 (Census Bureau decennial census counts and population estimates,
as of July 1), the population of this
submarket increased by an average
of 12,200, or 3.6 percent, annually,
with net in-migration averaging 9,725
annually and accounting for nearly
80 percent of the population growth.
From 2007 to 2010, population growth
slowed to an average increase of 9,650
people, or 2.4 percent, annually. The
Figure 8. Number of Households by Tenure in the Southeastern
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2000
2010
Renter
Current
Owner

slowdown in the rate of population

growth was because net in-migration
averaged 6,650 annually, which was
a decline of 3,075, or nearly 32 percent, from the previous period. Net
in-migration accounted for 68 percent
of all population growth in this submarket during the period.
The Southeastern Counties submarket
currently has 157,800 households, with
household growth averaging 2,600,
or 1.7 percent, annually since 2010.
Between 2000 and 2010, the number
of households increased by an average of 3,925, or 3.2 percent, annually
when the rate of population growth in
this submarket was much higher. This
submarket, which is predominately
rural, has the highest homeownership
rate of any submarket at 73.7 percent,
although this rate declined from 76.5
and 75.8 percent in 2000 and 2010,
respectively (Figure 8). During the
forecast period, the population of the
Southeastern Counties submarket is
forecast to increase by 6,625, or 1.4
percent, annually, with households
increasing by 2,325, or 1.5 percent,
annually.
10
Housing Market Trends
Sales MarketDallas County Submarket

The sales housing market in the Dallas
County submarket is currently tight,
with a vacancy rate of 1.0 percent,
which is down from 2.3 percent during
April 2010. This submarket currently
has a 2-month supply of inventory,
down from 2.5 months in July 2014
(Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
University). In July 2015, 3.8 percent
of all mortgage loans in the submarket were 90 or more days delinquent,
were in foreclosure, or had transitioned
into real estate owned (REO) status,
down from 4.5 percent in July 2014
and well below the peak level of 7.6
percent in January 2010 (Black Knight
Financial Services, Inc.).
2015, existing home sales (which include condominiums, townhomes, and
single-family homes) in the submarket
totaled 37,250, unchanged from the
previous 12 months (Metrostudy, A
Hanley Wood Company). A limited
sales inventory prevented an increase
in the number of sales but contributed
to the average sales price of an existing home increasing to $343,000, up
by $69,600, or more than 25 percent,
as an increased number of buyers bid
for the limited available supply.
Sales of existing homes in the Dallas
County submarket peaked in 2006 with
60,500 sales. After this peak, sales of
existing homes declined for 5 consecutive years by an average of 4,875, or
nearly 10 percent, annually to 36,150
sales during 2011. During the next
2 years, sales started to increase and,
by 2013, 42,500 existing homes sold
in the submarket, an average increase
of 3,175 homes sold, or more than
8 percent, annually. The average sales
price of an existing home peaked in
2007, at $251,000, but then declined

during the next 2 years by an average
of $29,450, or nearly 13 percent, annually to $192,100 in 2009. The average
sales price of an existing home began
to increase again in 2010 and by 2013
was $263,000, an average increase of
$17,725, or 8 percent, annually.
2015, new home sales (which include
condominiums, townhomes, and
single-family homes) in the Dallas
County submarket totaled 2,075, an
increase of 225 units, or 12 percent,
from the previous 12 months. The average sales price of a new home was
$365,400, an increase of $31,700, or
more than 9 percent. New home sales
declined during the 12 months ending
July 2014 by nearly 120 units, or 6 percent, as the average new home price
increased by $54,800, or nearly 20
percent, to $333,700. New home sales
are still 75 percent below their peak
level of 8,550 during 2005. Following
the peak in 2005, new home sales declined for 6 consecutive years to 1,550
during 2011, an average decline of
1,175, or nearly 25 percent, annually.
Although home sales were declining,
the average sales price of a new home
continued to rise from $239,700 during
2005 to $314,200 by the end of 2008,
reflecting an average increase of $24,850,
or more than 9 percent, annually during the period. The price continued
to increase as sales volume dropped
because higher priced luxury homes
made up a higher percentage of all
new home sales. The average sales
price of a new home began to decline
after the peak in 2008 and by 2011
was down to $264,500, an average decline of $16,550, or nearly 6 percent,
annually as the national economic
Sales MarketDallas County Submarket Continued
downturn affected the housing market.

During 2012 and 2013, both new home
sales and the average price of a new
home began to increase. During 2013,
1,875 new homes sold, an average in
crease of nearly 170 sales, or slightly
more than 10 percent, annually since
2012. During the same time period,
increased by an average of $18,150,
or nearly 7 percent, annually to
$300,800 during 2013.
Single-family homebuilding, as measured by the number of homes permitted,

increased during the 12 months ending
July 2015. During the same period,
4,525 single-family homes were permitted, an increase of 800 homes, or
slightly more than 21 percent, from
the previous 12 months (preliminary
data). Single-family home construction
started to rebound in 2012 and 2013
when an average of 3,575 single-family
homes were permitted annually as the
home sales market improved. By comparison, an average of 2,925 singlefamily homes were permitted annually
from 2008 through 2011, a result of the
national economic downturn. Despite
the recent improvement, new home
construction remains significantly below the average of 8,925 single-family
homes permitted annually from 2000
to 2007. Figure 9 shows the number
of single-family homes permitted in
the Dallas County submarket from
2000 to the current date.
Figure 9. Multifamily Units Permitted in the Dallas County Submarket,
2000 to Current
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
5
20
1
Notes: Includes townhomes. Current includes data through July 2015.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; estimates by analyst
20
1
20
1
11
10
09
20
1
20
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
04
02
03
20
20
20
01
20
20
20
00
0
20
11
Single-family homebuilding is continuing to increase in the Dallas County

submarket but is unlikely to ever return to the levels recorded from 2000
through 2007 because of a limited
amount of vacant developable land to
build new subdivisions. A significant
portion of new home construction in
the submarket is infill development,
most often in very expensive areas of
the county. As an example, Highland
Park and University Park, two small
cities in the submarket, hereafter known
as the Park Cities, have an average
sales price for a single-family home
of more than $1.3 million. The Park
Cities averaged about 145 new singlefamily homes built each year during
2013 and 2014, and each of these
new homes involved the demolition
of an existing home because vacant
lots have not been available in the
Park Cities since the 1950s. Several
neighborhoods in the city of Dallas,
such as the M-streets and Lakewood
neighborhoods, have also had significant infill development of new singlefamily homes since 2000.
Recent developments in the Dallas
County submarket include Bordeaux
at Lake Highlands, a 37-home devel
opment in the northeastern portion
of the city of Dallas. Home prices in
this development start at $609,000 for
a 2,500-square-foot, four-bedroom
house. Another development is Parkside, in Irving, where home prices
start at $300,000. Parkside began construction in early 2015, and the first
phase of the development consists of
329 lots with another 250 lots for the
second phase of development.
Demand is estimated for 15,250 new
homes in the Dallas County submarket during the 3-year forecast period
(Table 1). The 1,475 homes currently
12

Sales MarketDallas County Submarket Continued
Table 4. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing

in the Dallas County Submarket During the Forecast
Period
Price Range ($)

From
To
168,000
200,000
250,000
350,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
750,000
199,999
249,999
349,999
399,999
499,999
599,999
749,999
and higher
Units of
Demand
760
2,275
4,125
4,425
1,975
1,075
460
150
Percent
of Total
5.0
15.0
27.0
29.0
13.0
7.0
3.0
1.0
under construction will meet part

of the demand during the first
year. A portion of the 19,400 other
vacant units in this submarket may
reenter the market and satisfy some
of the forecast demand. Demand
is expected to be the greatest for
homes in the $350,000-to-$399,999
price range. Table 4 shows estimated
demand for new market-rate sales
housing in the HMA by price range.
Notes: The 1,475 homes currently under construction and a portion of the estimated 19,400 other vacant units in the submarket will likely satisfy some of the
forecast demand. The forecast period is August 1, 2015, to August 1, 2018.
Rental MarketDallas County Submarket

The overall rental housing market
(which includes single-family homes,
mobile homes, and apartment units) in
the Dallas County submarket is slightly
tight, with a 7.5-percent vacancy rate
(Figure 10). The current overall vacancy rate is down significantly from
12.0 percent in April 2010 as increased
levels of in-migration into the submarket have caused significant tightening
of the rental market.
The apartment market is currently
slightly tight, with a 7.6-percent vacancy rate during July 2015, down
from 8.0 percent 1 year earlier (ALN
Systems, Inc.). The average rent for an
apartment was $984, up $65, or 6 percent, from 1 year earlier. The apartment market has tightened during the
Figure 10. Rental Vacancy Rates in the Dallas County
12.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
7.5
6.3
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2000
2010
Current

Sources: 2000 and 20102000 Census and 2010 Census; currentestimates by
analyst
past year as absorption, which has

averaged nearly 960 units a month
during the12 months ending July 2015,
is outpacing the rate of new units that
are entering the market. During the
past 24 months, an average of nearly
770 units have entered the market each
month compared with a monthly average of 780 units absorbed.
The current apartment market conditions are tighter than the historical
norms in the Dallas County submarket.
During 2005, the average apartment
vacancy rate was 11.5 percent, with
an average rent of $710, and by 2008
the apartment market vacancy rate
had declined to 10.0 percent and rent
had increased by an average of $27,
or nearly 4 percent, a year to $790.
During 2009 and 2010, the apartment
market softened slightly, because of
job losses and slow population growth,
and the apartment vacancy rate increased to 11.5 percent by the end
of 2010. The average rent remained
flat during these years at $790. The
apartment market tightened during
the next 3 years because of rapid job
growth, coupled with a slowdown
in construction of new multifamily
13

Rental MarketDallas County Submarket Continued
units. The vacancy rate dropped to

8.2 percent during 2013 with the average rent increasing by an average of
$31, or 4 percent, annually during the
period.
As rental market conditions tightened,
some areas of the submarket, specifically in the city of Dallas, improved
more rapidly than the outlying bedroom communities. The city of Dallas
currently has a 6.4-percent apartment
vacancy rate, which is down from 8.0
percent 1 year earlier, and the average
rent is $969, an increase of $44, or
nearly 5 percent. Absorption of apartment units in the city of Dallas has
averaged about 700 units a month during the past 12 months, up from 400
units a month during the 12 months
ending July 2014. The downtown area
of the city of Dallas is undergoing
a renaissance, with many more new
housing units recently added to the
area than in previous years. More than
8,000 people are living in the central
business district of Dallas, a significant
increase from the 200 people who
lived in the area in 2000 (Downtown
Dallas, Inc.). The apartment vacancy
rate in the central business district area
was 4.6 percent in July 2015, down
from 6.2 percent 1 year earlier. The
average rent for an apartment in the
central business district of Dallas was
$1,661, an increase of $39, or 2 percent,
from 1 year earlier.
In the city of Dallas, the most construction activity for new apartments is in
the Uptown market area (as defined
by ALN Systems, Inc.). The Uptown
area had a 5.9-percent vacancy rate
in July 2015, down from 6.3 percent
during July 2014. The average rent
for an apartment in the Uptown area
was $1,775 a month, an increase of
$69, or 4 percent, from 1 year earlier.
Absorption during the 12 months

ending July 2015 averaged nearly 170
units a month compared with 110
units a month during the previous 12
months. During the past 24 months
in the Uptown area, 4,400 apartment
units have been added and plans have
been made for several more highrise
apartment buildings during the next
3 years.
Multifamily building activity, as measured by the number of multifamily
units permitted, totaled 9,500 units in
the Dallas County submarket during
the 12 months ending July 2015, which
is an increase of 3,050 units, or 24 percent, from the previous 12 months
(preliminary data). Multifamily construction in the Dallas County submarket is returning to more historically
normal levels after the recent surge in
construction from 2012 through 2014,
when an average of 12,100 multifamily
units were permitted annually. From
2000 through 2008, multifamily con
struction in the submarket averaged
7,850 units permitted annually. With
the HMA suffering job losses during
2009, which slowed population growth,
multifamily construction slowed considerably and averaged 2,500 units
permitted annually during 2009 and
2010. Multifamily construction started
to increase in 2011 with improving
economic conditions leading to increased in-migration to the submarket,
which in turn spurred demand for new
rental housing. During 2011, 6,025
multifamily units were permitted in
the Dallas County submarket, an in
crease of 3,300, or 120 percent, from
2010. Figure 11 shows the number
of multifamily units permitted since
2000 in the submarket.
Although multifamily construction
has increased significantly since 2011,
14

Figure 11. Multifamily Units Permitted in the Dallas County Submarket,

2000 to Current
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
4,000
2,000
15
14
20
13
20
11
10
09
12
20
20
20
20
08
20
07
20
05
06
20
20
04
02
03
20
20
20
20
01
20
00
0
20
6,000
Notes: Excludes townhomes. Current includes data through July 2015.

rental market conditions remain slightly

tight in the submarket as a whole and
very tight in certain localized areas in
the city of Dallas, in part because of a
high number of demolitions. Many of
the two-story, garden-style apartment
complexes that were built in the 1970s
or earlier are being demolished to
build three- to seven-story apartment
buildings with more units on the same
amount of land. The Village development is south of Northwest Highway
and east of Greenville Avenue in the
city of Dallas and consists of 17 apartment communities with more than
7,200 units. This development, which
began construction in the late 1960s,
has built 1,500 new units since 2000
that have replaced 1,200 demolished
units. Lincoln Property Co., the owners of the development, announced
in late 2014 they would undertake a
phased redevelopment of the property
during the next 10 years. This redevelopment will bring the total number of
units in the development to 12,000 as
the remaining two-story, garden-style
apartments are replaced by three- to
five-story apartment buildings.
Some of the newer developments in
the Dallas County submarket include
Arpeggio of Victory Park, a 382-unit
midrise apartment complex next to the

light-rail line station in the Victory
Park area of the city of Dallas. This
development consists of efficiency,
one-bedroom, and two-bedroom units
with rents starting at $1,025 for efficiency units and reaching $2,150 for a
two-bedroom unit. Another new apartment building is 3700M, a 21-story,
mixed-use highrise building in the Uptown area of the city of Dallas that
finished construction in November
2014. The apartment tower has 380
units with monthly rents for studio
units from $1,500 to $1,600, for onebedroom units from $1,570 to $2,700,
and for two-bedroom units from
$2,650 to $4,100.
During the 3-year forecast period, demand is estimated for 30,950 new rental
housing units (Table 1). Demand is expected to be greatest for one-bedroom
units in the $1,400-to-$1,799 price
range (Table 5). Construction of multifamily units in the city of Dallas will
remain strong during the next 3 years
as more people choose to live in the
urban center. The 10,650 units currently under construction that will
come online during the next 3 years
will meet a portion of the forecast
demand.
15

Table 5. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Rental Housing in the Dallas County Submarket
During the Forecast Period
Zero Bedrooms
One Bedroom
Two Bedrooms
Three or More Bedrooms
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
575 to 774
775 to 974
975 to 1,174
1,175 to 1,374
1,375 to 1,574
1,575 or more
Total
75
230
620
460
110
45
1,550
680 to 999
1,000 to 1,399
1,400 to 1,799
1,800 to 2,199
2,200 to 2,749
2,750 or more
Total
900
3,950
6,650
4,500
1,425
540
17,950
940 to 1,199
1,200 to 1,599
1,600 to 1,999
2,000 to 2,245
2,250 to 2,749
2,750 or more
Total
530
1,575
3,150
2,625
2,100
530
10,550
1,150 to 1,399
1,400 to 1,699
1,700 to 1,999
2,000 to 2,249
2,250 to 2,749
2,750 or more
Total
140
230
330
190
35
10
930
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The 10,650 units currently under construction will likely satisfy
some of the estimated demand. The forecast period is August 1, 2015, to August 1, 2018.
Sales MarketCollin-Denton Counties Submarket

The sales housing market in the CollinDenton Counties submarket is currently
tight, with a vacancy rate of 0.7 percent,
which is down from 1.8 percent during
April 2010. The supply of inventory
has been less than 2 months since the
end of 2012 (Real Estate Center at
Texas A&M University). The consistent
population growth in this submarket
has generated demand that has made
the submarket the strongest sales market in the HMA. In July 2015, 1.9
percent of all mortgage loans in the
submarket were 90 or more days delinquent, were in foreclosure, or had
transitioned into REO status, down
from 2.2 percent in July 2014 and well
below the peak level of 4.6 percent in
January 2010 (Black Knight Financial
Services, Inc.).
2015, new home sales in the CollinDenton Counties submarket totaled
11,100, an increase of 1,125, or more
than 11 percent, from the previous 12
months and the average sales price of
a new home was $353,900, an increase
of $17,850, or 5 percent (Metrostudy,
A Hanley Wood Company). New
home sales peaked in the submarket in
2005 with 18,700 sales and proceeded
to decline for 6 consecutive years by
an average of 2,075, or nearly 17 percent, annually to 6,250 sales d

uring
2011. As the housing market recovered
and new home construction began
to increase, new home sales totaled
9,325 during 2013, an average increase
of 1,550, or 22 percent, since 2011.
Although new home sales started to
decline during 2006, the average sales
price of a new home continued to increase through 2007 as the construction of smaller, lower priced homes
virtually ceased, leaving a higher priced
product for sale. During 2007, the average sales price of a new home was
$303,800. The average sales price of a
new home began to decline during the
next 2 years and was $261,500 by the
end of 2009, which was an average
decline $21,150, or 7 percent, annually
from 2007. The average sales price of
new homes began to increase as the
economy improved during 2010 and
the excess inventory of previously built
spec houses was absorbed. By 2013,
$14,400, or 5 percent, annually from
2010.
2015, existing home sales in the CollinDenton Counties submarket totaled
Sales MarketCollin-Denton Counties Submarket Continued
31,975, an increase of 100, or less

months and the average sales price of
an existing home was $283,300, an
increase of $21,700, or slightly more
than 8 percent. The limited inventory
of homes on the market constrained
sales and helped to increase the price.
The sale of existing homes in the sub
market peaked in 2006 with 42,100
sales. Following this peak, and with
the onset of the national economic
downturn, the sale of existing homes
declined for 5 consecutive years, by an
average of 3,025, or nearly 9 percent,
annually to 27,000 sales during 2011.
During the next 2 years, when the economy began to improve, sales started to
increase and, by 2013, 35,150 existing
homes sold in the submarket, which
was an average increase of 4,075 sales,
or 14 percent, annually since 2011. The
peak in the average sales price of an
existing home came a year later than
the peak in the number of homes sold.
The sales price for existing homes averaged $267,400 during 2007 before
declining by an average of $25,800,
or 10 percent, annually to $215,800
in 2009. The average sales price of an
existing home began to increase again
in 2010 and by 2013 was $252,200, an
average increase of $9,100, or 4 percent,
annually during the 4-year period.
Single-family homebuilding, as measured by the number of homes permitted, increased sharply during the 12
months ending July 2015. For the same
Figure 12. Single-Family Homes Permitted in the Collin-Denton
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
15
14
20
13

20
11
12
20
20
20
09
20
1
08
20
20
06
20
05
04
02
03
20
20
20
01
20
20
20
00
0
20
07
16
period, 13,650 single-family homes

were permitted, an increase of 3,025
homes, or slightly more than 28 percent, from the previous 12 months
(preliminary data). Single-family home
construction started to rebound in
2012 and 2013, when an average of
10,250 single-family homes were per
mitted annually. Despite an increase
in permitting since 2012, the number
of single-family homes permitted
remains below the average of 15,350
to 2006. Following the economic downturn and resulting slowdown in the
national housing market, construction
in the Collin-Denton Counties submarket declined to an average of 7,475
through 2011. Figure 12 shows the
number of single-family homes permitted in the submarket from 2000 to
the current date.
Unlike the Dallas County submarket,
still has significant amounts of developable land, and development has
continued to head north in the larger
Dallas HMA. Most of the large-scale
subdivisions currently being developed
in the HMA are in the submarket. During the 12 months ending June 2015,
8 of the 10 most active subdivisions
in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,
TX Metropolitan Statistical Area, of
which the Dallas HMA is a component,
were in the Collin-Denton Counties
submarket (Metrostudy, A Hanley
Wood Company). The Westridge subdivision in the city of McKinney, in
Collin County, was the most active in
the HMA, with 440 homes beginning
construction during this time. New
home prices in the Westridge subdivision start at $279,000 for a threebedroom, two-bathroom home.
Paloma Creek, in the city of Little
17

Sales MarketCollin-Denton Counties Submarket Continued
Elm, in Denton County, was the second most active subdivision during
the 12 months ending June 2015 with
430 homes beginning construction.
Paloma Creek is a master-planned
community that will have more than
5,500 homes when built out. Paloma
Table 6. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing in the
Collin-Denton Counties Submarket During the Forecast Period
Price Range ($)
From
To
Units of
Demand
Percent
of Total
153,000
199,999
1,050
3.0
200,000
249,999
2,800
8.0
250,000
299,999
6,275
18.0
300,000
399,999
11,150
32.0
400,000
499,999
7,325
21.0
500,000
599,999
4,550
13.0
600,000
749,999
1,400
4.0
750,000
and higher
350
1.0
Notes: The 4,600 homes currently under construction and a portion of the estimated
7,500 other vacant units in the submarket will likely satisfy some of the forecast
demand. The forecast period is August 1, 2015, to August 1, 2018.
Creek is currently 80 percent complete,

with final buildout expected by 2017.
Home prices in this subdivision start
at $207,000 for a three-bedroom home.
homes in the Collin-Denton Counties
submarket during the 3-year forecast
period (Table 1), with demand expected
to increase during each successive year.
The 4,600 homes currently under construction will meet part of the demand
during the first year. A portion of the
7,500 other vacant units in this submarket may reenter the market and
satisfy some of the forecast demand.
Demand is expected to be the greatest
for homes in the $300,000-to-$399,999
Rental MarketCollin-Denton Counties Submarket

The overall rental housing market in
the Collin-Denton Counties submarket is tight, with a 4.7-percent vacancy
rate (Figure 13). The current overall
vacancy rate is down significantly
from 9.2 percent in April 2010.
The apartment market is currently
slightly tight, with a 5.0-percent vacancy rate during July 2015, down
from 6.3 percent during July 2014
(ALN Systems, Inc.). The current average rent for an apartment is $1,091,
Figure 13. Rental Vacancy Rates in the Collin-Denton Counties
12.0
10.1
10.0
9.2
8.0
6.0
4.7
4.0
2.0
0.0
2000
2010
Current

which is up $66, or more than 6 percent, from the previous 12 months.

Absorption during the past 12 months
has averaged 350 units a month in this
submarket, up from 240 units a month
during the previous 12 months. The
average rents by bedroom size are currently $920 for a one-bedroom unit,
$1,215 for a two-bedroom unit, and
$1,486 for a three-bedroom unit.
The current apartment market conditions are tighter than the conditions
that existed during the mid-2000s, when
the apartment market was balanced.
With slowing population and job
growth in the submarket, conditions
began to soften during 2008, and by
the end of 2009 the vacancy rate was
12.5 percent. With improving economic conditions in 2010, household
growth began to increase. With a
greater number of new household
formations being renter households,
Rental MarketCollin-Denton Counties Submarket Continued
the excess supply was absorbed, and

by the end of 2013 the vacancy rate
for apartment units in the submarket
had dropped to 6.5 percent. The average rent increased by an average of
$34, or 4 percent, annually from 2009
to $985 during 2013.
currently under construction or in

planning in this large mixed-use
development. These dense walkable
developments are greatly changing
the character of this submarket, which
previously had very few dense mixeduse developments.
This submarket, traditionally a more

suburban area with most apartment
units being of the garden style variety,
is starting to see more dense, urban-style
development. In the city of Richardson,
the City Line project, which is being
built immediately south of the new
State Farm campus, is a 186-acre, $1.6
billion development that has nearly
1,700 apartment units under construction in midrise buildings. City Line is
a transit-oriented development next to
a light-rail line station. The development will include retail space, including a Whole Foods market, along with
hotels to accommodate business travelers to the new State Farm campus.
Building activity, as measured by the

number of multifamily units permitted, totaled 7,650 units during the 12
months ending July 2015, which is a
decline of 1,275 units, or 14 percent,
from the previous 12 months (preliminary data). Although the level of multifamily construction declined in the
most recent 12-month period, it is still
higher than the historical averages in
the Collin-Denton Counties submarket.
From 2000 through 2008, an average
of 5,000 multifamily units were permitted annually. Multifamily construction
then declined significantly during 2009
and 2010, when an average of 2,925
multifamily units were permitted annually. During 2011, with increasing
employment and population growth,
multifamily construction nearly doubled
to 5,625 units permitted. Multifamily
construction increased further during
2012 and an average of 7,600 units
were permitted annually from 2012
through 2014. Figure 14 shows the
number of multifamily units permitted
in the submarket from 2000 to the
current date.
Several large-scale developments are in

the area of the North Dallas Tollway
and Sam Rayburn Tollway in Collin
County. In the northwest part of the
city of Plano, the $2 billion large-scale,
mixed-use Legacy West development
is under way that will include more
than 600 apartments in addition to the
retail and office space. In the $5 billion
mile area of the city of Frisco, more
than 3,700 apartment units and two
10-story condominium buildings are
Figure 14. Multifamily Units Permitted in the Collin-Denton Counties
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
10
20
1
20
09
20
07
20
0
06
20
05
20
03
20
04
20
01
20
02
20
20
00
0
20
18
Urban Square at Unicorn Lake, a

205-unit development completed in
November 2014 in Denton County, is
currently leased up. Rents start at $895,
$1,250, and $1,550 for one-, two-, and
three-bedroom units, respectively. In
Collin County, Parkside at Craig Ranch
opened in July 2014 with 418 units.
Monthly rents range from $710 to
$945 for studio units, $900 to $1,380
for one-bedroom units, and $1,330 to
$1,945 for two-bedroom units.
19

Rental MarketCollin-Denton Counties Submarket Continued
During the 3-year forecast period,

demand is estimated for 22,000 new
rental housing units (Table 1). Demand
is expected to be greatest for onebedroom units in the $1,200-to-$1,499
price range (Table 7). Construction of
multifamily units will be strongest in
the Collin-Denton Counties submarket along the North Dallas Tollway
corridor, with many mixed-use developments being built in this area to go

along with several large-scale corporate expansions and relocations. The
7,325 units currently under construction that will come online during the
next 3 years will meet a portion of the
forecast demand.
Table 7. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Rental Housing in the Collin-Denton Counties
Submarket During the Forecast Period
Zero Bedrooms
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
One Bedroom
Two Bedrooms
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
700 to 899
900 or more
140
75
Total
220
795 to 999
1,000 to 1,199
1,200 to 1,499
1,500 to 1,699
1,700 to 1,999
2,000 or more
Total
2,450
3,075
4,050
1,850
620
250
12,300
1,025 to 1,249
1,250 to 1,499
1,500 to 1,799
1,800 to 1,999
2,000 to 2,250
2,250 or more
Total
1,175
2,225
2,775
1,100
470
160
7,900
1,495 to 1,699
1,700 to 1,899
1,900 to 2,099
2,100 to 2,299
2,300 to 2,499
2,500 or more
Total
920
280
150
110
45
30
1,550
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The 7,325 units currently under construction will likely satisfy some
of the estimated demand. The forecast period is August 1, 2015, to August 1, 2018.
Sales MarketSoutheastern Counties Submarket

The sales housing market in the Southeastern Counties submarket is currently
slightly soft, with a vacancy rate of 1.8
percent, which is down from 2.2 per
cent during April 2010. In July 2015,
3.9 percent of all mortgage loans in
the submarket were 90 or more days
delinquent, were in foreclosure, or had
transitioned into REO status, down
from 4.7 percent in July 2014 and well
below the peak level of 7.7 percent in
January 2010 (Black Knight Financial
Services, Inc.).
During the 12 months ending July 2015,
new home sales in the Southeastern
Counties submarket totaled 2,125, an
increase of 200, or 11 percent, from
the previous 12 months, and the average sales price of a new home was
$256,500, an increase of $11,500, or
nearly 5 percent (Metrostudy, A Hanley
Wood Company). New home sales
peaked in the submarket in 2006 with
4,950 sales and proceeded to decline

for 5 consecutive years by an average
of 770, or nearly 26 percent, annually
to 1,125 sales during 2011. As the
housing market recovered and new
home construction began to increase,
new home sales totaled 1,625 during
2013, an average increase of 250, or
20 percent, since 2011. New home
sales started to decline during 2007,
but the average sales price peaked
during this year at $209,000. During
the next 2 years, the average sales price
of a new home declined by an average
of $12,150, or 6 percent, annually to
$184,700 in 2009. The average sales
price of a new home began to recover
during 2010 and increased by an average of $13,250, or 7 percent, annually
to $237,500 in 2013.
2015, existing home sales in the Southeastern Counties submarket totaled
Sales MarketSoutheastern Counties Submarket Continued
10,850, an increase of 350, or more

months, and the average sales price
of an existing home was $190,400, an
increase of $9,550, or 5 percent. Sales
of existing homes in the submarket
peaked in 2006, with 42,100 sales.
Following this peak, along with a slowing rate of population growth and the
national economic downturn, sales of
existing homes declined for 5 consecutive years by an average of 3,025, or
nearly 9 percent, annually to 27,000
sales during 2011. During the next
2 years, as the economy began to improve, existing home sales increased
by an average of 4,075, or 14 percent,
a year to 35,150 in 2013. The a verage
sales price of an existing home peaked
a year later than the peak in the number of homes sold. After peaking at
$267,400 in 2007, the average sales
price of an existing home declined by
an average of $25,800, or 10 percent,
annually to $215,800 in 2009. The average sales price of an existing home
began to increase again and by 2013
$9,100, or 4 percent, annually.

2015, 2,675 single-family homes were
permitted, an increase of 625 units,
or slightly more than 31 percent, from
the previous 12 months (preliminary
data). Single-family home construction
started to rebound in 2012 and 2013,
when an average of 1,775 single-family
Figure 15. Single-Family Homes Permitted in the Southeastern
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
15
14
20
13

20
11
10
12
20
20
20
20
08
20
09
07
20
06
20
04
03
02
20
0
20
20
01
20
20
20
00
0
20
20
homes were permitted annually as the

home sales market improved. By comparison, an average of 1,225 singlefamily homes were permitted annually
from 2008 through 2011, a result of the
national economic downturn. Despite
the recent improvement, new home
construction remains significantly below the average of 3,150 single-family
to 2007. Figure 15 shows the number
of single-family homes permitted in
the Southeastern Counties submarket
from 2000 to the current date.
Sonoma Verde is a subdivision currently undergoing development in
Rockwall County. The first phase of
the development, which consists of
170 lots, began construction in early
2015. Home prices in the Sonoma Verde
subdivision range from $280,000 to
$400,000 for three- and four-bedroom
homes. When finished, the development will have more than 400 homes.
In Ellis County, the Windchase subdivision began construction in the spring
of 2015 and has 72 lots for development.
Home prices range from $177,000 to
$192,000 for three- and four-bedroom
homes in this development.
homes in the Southeastern Counties
submarket during the 3-year forecast
period (Table 1), with demand increasing each year of the forecast period.
The 420 homes currently under construction will meet part of the demand
during the first year. A portion of the
7,000 other vacant units in this submarket may reenter the market and
satisfy some of the forecast demand.
Demand is expected to be greatest for
homes in the $275,000-to-$299,999
21

Sales MarketSoutheastern Counties Submarket Continued
Table 8. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing in the

Southeastern Counties Submarket During the Forecast Period
Price Range ($)

From
To
146,000
200,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
500,000
199,999
249,999
274,999
299,999
349,999
399,999
499,999
and higher
Units of
Demand
190
810
1,125
1,425
1,175
930
500
60
Percent
of Total
3.0
13.0
18.0
23.0
19.0
15.0
8.0
1.0
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Excludes demand for
200 mobile homes. The 420 homes currently under construction and a portion of the
estimated 7,000 other vacant units in the submarket will likely satisfy some of the
forecast demand. The forecast period is August 1, 2015, to August 1, 2018.
Rental MarketSoutheastern Counties Submarket

The overall rental housing market in
is balanced, with a 6.2-percent vacancy
rate, down from 9.7 percent in April
2010 and 7.7 percent in April 2000
(Figure 16). The apartment market
is currently tight, with a 3.0-percent
vacancy rate during July 2015, down
from 7.1 percent 1 year earlier (ALN
Systems, Inc.). During this time, the
average monthly rent for an apartment
was unchanged at $865. Absorption
of apartment units averaged 105 units
a month in this submarket during the
12 months ending July 2015 compared
with less than 30 units a month the
previous 12 months. One- and twobedroom apartments account for 86
percent of all apartment units in this
submarket. In July 2015, the average
Figure 16. Rental Vacancy Rates in the Southeastern Counties
9.7
10.0
8.0
7.7
6.2
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2000
2010
Current

Sources: 2000 and 20102000 Census and 2010 Census; currentestimates
by analyst
rents by bedroom size were $803 for

a one-bedroom unit, $892 for a twobedroom unit, and $957 for a threebedroom unit.
Average rents for apartments within
vary significantly. Rockwall County,
which is about a 20-minute drive from
the central business district of the city
of Dallas, has the highest average rent
of any county in the submarket at
$1,227. Hunt County, which is to the
east of Rockwall County, about an
hours drive from the city of Dallas
and the most rural county in the HMA,
has an average apartment rent of $630,
the lowest in the submarket. The average rents for apartments in Ellis and
Kaufman Counties are $856 and $824,
respectively.
Building activity, as measured by the
number of multifamily units permitted,
totaled 530 units during the 12 months
ending July 2015, after no units were
permitted during the previous 12
months (preliminary data). The 530
units permitted during the most recent
12 months is the same number of units
permitted during the 12 months ending
Rental MarketSoutheastern Counties Submarket Continued
July 2013. From 2000 through 2006,

multifamily permitting averaged 550
units annually. Multifamily construction increased from 2007 through 2009,
when an average of 680 units were
permitted annually. With the economic
downturn and a slowdown in population growth, multifamily activity bottomed out in 2010 with only 190 units
permitted. As the economy began to
recover in 2011, multifamily construction increased every year to 2013, when
560 units were permitted. Figure 17
Figure 17. Multifamily Units Permitted in the Southeastern Counties
1,000
800
600
400
shows the number of multifamily units

permitted in the Southeastern Counties
submarket from 2000 to the current date.
Recent developments in this submarket
include Gateway Gardens in Kaufman
County. The first phase of the property
opened in the fall of 2014 and has
334 units of one- and two-bedroom
apartments with rents ranging from
$895 to $1,525. The second phase of
this property, consisting of 313 units,
broke ground in the early summer of
2015 with completion anticipated by
the fall of 2016. In Ellis County, The
Terrace at MidTowne is one of the
newer developments, having opened
in 2013. This property has 92 units
of one- and two-bedroom apartments
with rents ranging from $700 to $1,200.
200
15
14
20
13
20
11
10
09
12
20
20
20
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
20
05
04
03
20
20
02
20
01
20
20
00
0
20
22

Table 9. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Rental Housing in the

Southeastern Counties Submarket During the Forecast Period
One Bedroom
Two Bedrooms
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
860 to 1,059
1,060 or more
Total
460
310
760
1,085 to 1,284
1,285 or more
Total
410
270
680
1,300 to 1,499
1,500 or more
Total
85
55
140
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The 530 units currently under construction will likely satisfy some of the estimated demand. The forecast period
is August 1, 2015, to August 1, 2018.
During the 3-year forecast period, demand is estimated for 1,600 new rental
housing units (Table 1). Demand is expected to be greatest for one-bedroom
units in the $860-to-$1,059 price range
(Table 9). Most of the apartment development in the Southeastern Counties
submarket is likely to occur in areas
west of state highway 34 that border
Dallas County. The 530 units currently
under construction that will come on
the market during the next 3 years will
meet a portion of the forecast demand.
23
Data Profiles
Table DP-1. Dallas HMA* Data Profile, 2000 to Current
Average Annual Change (%)

Total resident employment
Unemployment rate
Nonfarm payroll jobs
Total population
Total households
Owner households
Percent owner
Renter households
Percent renter
Total housing units
Owner vacancy rate
Rental vacancy rate
Median Family Income
2000
2010
Current
2000 to 2010
2010 to Current
1,849,127
3.5%
1,989,500
3,445,899
1,253,153
732,244
58.4%
520,909
41.6%
1,330,125
1.5%
7.2%
$58,200
2,016,423
8.0%
2,046,200
4,230,520
1,523,999
914,815
60.0%
609,184
40.0%
1,657,686
2.1%
11.1%
$68,300
2,284,000
4.2%
2,352,000
4,711,000
1,697,800
968,900
57.1%
728,900
42.9%
1,792,000
1.0%
6.6%
$70,400
0.9
2.8
0.3
2.1
2.0
2.3
3.1
2.0
2.0
1.1
1.6
3.4
2.2
1.5
1.6
0.6
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Employment data represent annual averages for 2000, 2010,
and the 12 months through July 2015. Median Family Incomes are for 1999, 2009, and 2014.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; estimates by analyst
Table DP-2. Dallas County Submarket Data Profile, 2000 to Current

Total population
Total households
Owner households
Percent owner
Rental households
Percent renter
Total housing units
Owner vacancy rate
Rental vacancy rate
2000
2010
Current
2000 to 2010
2010 to Current
2,218,899
807,621
424,847
52.6%
382,774
47.4%
854,119
1.3%
6.3%
2,368,139
855,960
455,741
53.2%
400,219
46.8%
943,257
2.3%
12.0%
2,558,000
924,100
462,600
50.1%
461,500
49.9%
985,500
1.0%
7.5%
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.5
1.4
0.3
0.4
2.7
1.0
0.8
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The current date is August 1, 2015.
Table DP-3. Collin-Denton Counties Submarket Data Profile, 2000 to Current

Total population
Total households
Owner households
Percent owner
Rental households
Percent renter
Total housing units
Owner vacancy rate
Rental vacancy rate
2000
2010
Current
2000 to 2010
2010 to Current
924,651
340,873
227,325
66.7%
113,548
33.3%
362,961
1.8%
10.1%
1,444,955
524,048
349,917
66.8%
174,131
33.2%
557,099
1.8%
9.2%
1,696,000
615,900
390,000
63.3%
225,900
36.7%
637,100
0.7%
4.7%
4.6
4.4
4.4
3.0
3.1
2.1
4.4
5.0
4.4
2.5
24
Data Profiles Continued
Table DP-4. Southeastern Counties Submarket Data Profile, 2000 to Current

Total population
Total households
Owner households
Percent owner
Rental households
Percent renter
Total housing units
Owner vacancy rate
Rental vacancy rate
2000
2010
Current
2000 to 2010
2010 to Current
302,349
104,659
80,072
76.5%
24,587
23.5%
113,045
1.9%
7.7%
417,426
143,991
109,157
75.8%
34,834
24.2%
157,330
2.2%
9.7%
457,300
157,800
116,300
73.7%
41,500
26.3%
169,700
1.8%
6.2%
3.3
3.2
3.1
1.7
1.7
1.2
3.5
3.3
3.4
1.4
25
Data Definitions and Sources
2000: 4/1/2000U.S. Decennial Census

2010: 4/1/2010U.S. Decennial Census
Current date: 8/1/2015Analysts estimates
Forecast period: 8/1/20158/1/2018Analysts
estimates
The metropolitan division and metropolitan
statistical area definitions in this report are based
on the delineations established by the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) in the OMB
Bulletin dated February 28, 2013.
Demand: The demand estimates in the analysis
are not a forecast of building activity. They are
the estimates of the total housing production
needed to achieve a balanced market at the end
of the 3-year forecast period given conditions on
the as-of date of the analysis, growth, losses, and
excess vacancies. The estimates do not account
for units currently under construction or units in
the development pipeline.
Other Vacant Units: In the U.S. Department of
Housing and Urban Developments (HUDs)
analysis, other vacant units include all vacant
units that are not available for sale or for rent.
The term therefore includes units rented or sold
but not occupied; held for seasonal, recreational,
or occasional use; used by migrant workers; and
the category specified as other vacant by the
Census Bureau.
Building Permits: Building permits do not neces
sarily reflect all residential building activity that
occurs in an HMA. Some units are constructed
or created without a building permit or are issued
a different type of building permit. For example,
some units classified as commercial structures
are not reflected in the residential building permits. As a

result, the analyst, through diligent fieldwork, makes an
estimate of this additional construction activity. Some of
these estimates are included in the discussions of singlefamily and multifamily building permits.
For additional data pertaining to the housing market
for this HMA, go to huduser.gov/publications/pdf/
CMARtables_Dallas-Plano-IrvingTX_16.pdf.
Contact Information
Tim McDonald, Economist
Fort Worth HUD Regional Office
8179789401
[email protected]
This analysis has been prepared for the assistance and
guidance of HUD in its operations. The factual information, findings, and conclusions may also be useful to
builders, mortgagees, and others concerned with local
housing market conditions and trends. The analysis
does not purport to make determinations regarding the
acceptability of any mortgage insurance proposals that
may be under consideration by the Department.
The factual framework for this analysis follows the
guidelines and methods developed by HUDs Economic
and Market Analysis Division. The analysis and findings
are as thorough and current as possible based on information available on the as-of date from local and national
sources. As such, findings or conclusions may be modified by subsequent developments. HUD expresses its
appreciation to those industry sources and state and local
government officials who provided data and information
on local economic and housing market conditions.
For additional reports on other market areas, please go to

huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/chma_archive.html.

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C O M P R E H E N S I V E

Office of Policy Development and Research

Housing Market Area

Economic conditions in the Dallas

The sales housing market in the Dallas

The rental housing market in the

he Dallas HMA is home to 19

in the oil industry. The city of Dallas

Figure 2. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Dallas HMA,* by Sector

Mining, logging, & construction 5.3%

Other services 3.4%

Wholesale & retail trade 16.2%

Transportation & utilities 3.6%

Education & health services 12.2%

Economic Conditions Continued

are building new office complexes,

Economic Conditions Continued

recently announced expansions in this

The education and health services

Table 3. Major Employers in the Dallas HMA*

Nonfarm Payroll Sector

Education & health services

Education & health services

System is the largest employer in this

Economic Conditions Continued

rate in the nation (Bureau of Labor

the HMA recovered and increased by

Economic Conditions Continued

are under way in the Dallas County

will include two hotels and several new

Population and Households

Net natural change

Figure 5. Population and Household Growth in the Dallas HMA,*

shows the components of population

Population and Households Continued

Also, rent growth has been stronger in

Note: The current date is August 1, 2015.

is currently estimated at nearly 1.7

Population and Households Continued

Figure 7. Number of Households by Tenure in the Collin-Denton

Note: The current date is August 1, 2015.

population has increased by an average of 7,475, or 1.7 percent, annually

Note: The current date is August 1, 2015.

slowdown in the rate of population

Housing Market Trends

Sales MarketDallas County Submarket

2007, at $251,000, but then declined

Sales MarketDallas County Submarket Continued

downturn affected the housing market.

Single-family homebuilding, as measured by the number of homes permitted,

Notes: Includes townhomes. Current includes data through July 2015.

Housing Market Trends

Single-family homebuilding is continuing to increase in the Dallas County

Housing Market Trends

Table 4. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing

Price Range ($)

under construction will meet part

Rental MarketDallas County Submarket

Note: The current date is August 1, 2015.