EMBA Fundamental Analysis (Nissim) SP2016

Fundamental Analysis, B7021, Spring 2016
Course Syllabus
This draft: October 21, 2015
I. CONTACT DETAILS
Prof. Doron Nissim
Email: [email protected]
Office hours (604 Uris): by appointment
II. COURSE DESCRIPTION
Fundamental analysis, conducted using quantities derived from financial reports and other sources,
is used in performance evaluation, risk assessment, forecasting, and valuation, as well as for other
purposes. B7021 covers various modules of fundamental analysis, focusing on equity valuation.
This half-semester course is related to the full-semester course Earnings Quality and Fundamental
Analysis (B7008), but it is different from B7008 not only in its length. While B7008 emphasizes
GAAP and earnings quality, B7021 focuses on fundamental analysis, with earnings quality
discussed only to the extent that it is part of fundamental analysis.
The course covers four topics: Financial reporting, ratio analysis, fundamental-based relative
valuation, and fundamental valuation. Please see Section VII for course outline and summary of
content.
While the course covers the theoretical underpinning of the various analyses, it focuses on
implementation and practical uses. Many real-world examples will be analyzed, including using
Excel tools that will be provided to the students.
III. COURSE ADMINISTRATION

Class Material
The course material consists of detailed class notes, presentations, practice exercises, problem sets,
text book (please see Section V), and optional readings. A good preparation for each class would
be to read the class notes and skim through the presentation. Reviewing the presentation carefully
after class and solving the practice exercises and problem sets would help reinforce the material.
This is important especially because for some topics we will not have sufficient class time to
discuss all the points and examples contained in the class notes and presentations. The text book
and optional readings elaborate on the discussion and analyses.
All items (other than the text book) will be made available electronically before class, saved in an
Acrobat version that allows for the addition of comments to the electronic documents. You will
also receive hard copies of the text book, class notes, presentations, and practice exercises. You
may use a laptop or iPad during class to help you follow the discussion, to take notes, or to add
comments to the electronic documents as needed (please use the laptop/iPad for those purposes
only otherwise, it may negatively impact your learning experience and that of your peers).
One objective of the class is that you will each obtain a detailed, familiar, and customized (through
your additions) set of notes that you will be able to use in your careers.
There will be three assigned problem sets to be handed in:
Problem Set
Class Due
Third class
Fifth class
One week after 6th class
1. Financial reporting
2. Ratio analysis and relative valuation
3. Fundamental valuation
Grade and Course Project
The course grade will be based on problem sets (3 problem sets; 10% each) and a project (70%).
Grading of the problem sets will be based on effort only. The project can be either individual or
group (up to four participants). Individual projects should be between 8 and 12 pages (including
exhibits; single line space). Group projects should be proportionally longer, depending on the
number of members. The objective of the project is to estimate the value of a company using
fundamental analysis, including both relative and absolute valuation. The due date for the project
is one week after the last (6th) class.
Assignment Designation
The project is classified as Type B according to the Columbia EMBA Class Assignment
Descriptions. This means that you may discuss concepts of the project with other students, but the
submitted project must be your own individual (or group) work.
Teaching Assistants
TBD
IV. CONNECTION WITH THE CORE AND OTHER ELECTIVES

This course builds on the core courses Financial Accounting (B5000) and Corporate Finance
(B5300), which introduce students to basic financial reporting and financial analysis concepts. In
particular, Fundamental Analysis (B7021) requires a basic understanding of the following:
Financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement
How accrual accounting differs from cash accounting, including revenue recognition
(realization principle), expense recognition (matching principle), and asset and liability
measurement (historical cost, selective fair value)
Time value of money and present value calculations

V. TEXT
Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, Wiley Finance, 6th Edition.
VI. OPTIONAL READINGS

1. Nissim, D. and S. Penman. 2001. Ratio analysis and equity valuation: From research to
practice. Review of Accounting Studies 6: 109 - 154.
2. Nissim, D. and S. Penman. 2003. Financial statement analysis of leverage and how it informs
about profitability and price-to-book ratios. Review of Accounting Studies 8: 531-560.
3. Chan, L., J. Karceski and J. Lakonishok. 2003. The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates.
Journal of Finance.
4. Nissim D. and A. Ziv. 2001. Dividend Changes and Future Profitability. Journal of Finance.
5. Liu, J., D. Nissim, and J. Thomas. 2007. Is cash flow king in valuations? Financial Analysts
Journal 63(2): 56-68 (2007).
6. Lev, B. and D. Nissim. 2004. Taxable income, future earnings, and equity values. The
Accounting Review 79(4): 1039-1074.
VII. COURSE OUTLINE AND SUMMARY OF CONTENT
Financial reporting (Topic #1, approximately 6 class hours)

- Primary financial statements
The balance sheet (statement of financial position)
The income statement (statement of earnings, statement of operations)
The cash flow statement
- Secondary financial statements
Statement of equity
Statement of comprehensive income
- Underlying accounting concepts
Asset and liability measurement: Historical cost versus fair value
Accounting conservatism
Revenue recognition: Realization principle
Expense recognition: Matching principle
- The relationships among the different financial statements
- Limitations and distortions of the financial statements, and implications for fundamental
analysis
Understated assets and equity due to: omission of internally developed intangibles,
historical cost accounting, and conservative accounting practices
Overstated earnings due to historical cost accounting
Overstated profitability (relative to economic profitability) due to the above distortions
3
Hidden risks: omission of executory contracts and some loss contingencies, and other
off-balance sheet exposures (e.g., borrowing through associated companies, exposure
to unconsolidated variable interest entities)
Expense recognition inconsistent with matching (e.g., R&D, advertising, impairment,
restructuring, resolution of contingencies)
- Summary of line-specific GAAP and differences relative to IFRS
Ratio analysis (topic #2, approximately 4.5 class hours)

- Introduction
- Reformulating the financial statements
Operating versus financing versus other activities
Recurring versus transitory items
- Analyzing profitability
Recurring versus transitory profitability
Operating profitability versus financial leverage effects
Drivers of operating profitability: profit margin, asset turnover, leverage from
operating credit
- Evaluating earnings quality
Big picture indicators of earnings quality: cash flows versus accruals, net operating
assets relative to sales, discretionary expenses relative to sales
Key line-item-related indicators of earnings quality; for example,
Revenue recognition: receivables relative to sales, deferred revenue relative to
sales, revenue mix, gross margin,
Inventory and related expenses: inventory relative to cost of goods sold, production
costs relative to cost of goods sold, payable relative to operating expenditures,
Fixed assets and related expenses: estimated useful life and average age of fixed
assets, asset replacement ratio (capex relative to depreciation), net income relative
to free cash flow,
- Assessing growth prospects
Historical growth rates
Investment analysis
Various decompositions of sales and sales growth rates
Non-financial and industry-specific growth drivers
Macro factors
- Risk analysis
Capital structure
Debt service ratios
Coverage ratios
Liquidity
Fundamental-based relative valuation ( topic #3, approximately 1.5 class hours)

- Price multiples
- Linking price multiples to fundamentals
- Conditional price multiples
Fundamental valuation (topic #4, approximately 6 hours)

- Basics of fundamental valuation
The value of any investment or asset (e.g., project, business, company, stock, bond) is
the present value of the net cash flow that the asset is expected to generate or save
Identifying and forecasting the net cash flow
Estimating the discount rate
The dividend discount model as an example
- The discounted cash flow (DCF) model for equity valuation
Deriving the model
DCF value = present value of free cash flow (FCF) discounted at the weighted average
cost of capital (WACC)
Enterprise value = DCF value + value of non-operating assets (e.g., investments in
associates)
Equity value = enterprise value value of net debt
- Defining and measuring FCF and cash flows to the various claim holders (equity holders,
debt holders, other stakeholders)
FCF = NOPAT - Net operating assets
Measuring FCF as EBIT(1-t) + Dep&Amort capex - working capital, as is often
done, results in a biased FCF measure
Operating assets other than working capital and fixed assets acquired in cash
transactions
Operating liabilities other than working capital liabilities
- Forecasting FCF
Drivers of FCF
Revenue growth
Operating profit margin (profit/revenue ability to translate revenue to profit that
flows to the providers of capital)
Operating assets turnover (revenue/assets reflecting the investment in operating
assets required to generate the revenue)
Net operating assets ratio (net assets/assets reflecting leverage from operating
creditors that help fund operating assets)
Analysis and forecasting of the drivers of FCF and their components
Explicit forecasts, transition/convergence forecasts, and steady-state assumptions
- Estimating WACC
Sources of financing (equity, debt, hybrid equity/debt, operating credit, leasing and
other off-balance sheet financing)
Capital versus operating credit
Gross versus net capital
Current versus long-term or target leverage
Determinants of the availability and cost of the various financing sources
Pretax cost of debt
Tax rate on interest expense
Cost of equity capital
Earnings retention and payout policy (dividends, share repurchases)
Short- versus long-term debt
5
Asset-backed financing
Lines of credit vs. cash and other liquid funds
The effects of leverage on operations
Risk management
Forecasting financing activities and constructing pro forma financial statements
Terminal value
Constant growth (Gordon) formula
Exit multiples
From DCF value to value per share
Scenario and sensitivity analyses
Scenario-based valuation

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Fundamental Analysis, B7021, Spring 2016

III. COURSE ADMINISTRATION

IV. CONNECTION WITH THE CORE AND OTHER ELECTIVES

VI. OPTIONAL READINGS

Financial reporting (Topic #1, approximately 6 class hours)

Ratio analysis (topic #2, approximately 4.5 class hours)

Fundamental-based relative valuation ( topic #3, approximately 1.5 class hours)

Fundamental valuation (topic #4, approximately 6 hours)

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