Case Ocean Carriers
Case Ocean Carriers
Case Ocean Carriers
2
Case 1: Ocean Carriers
For these case studies, our team (goup 22) made an analysis of the
capesize fleet. We are discussing the trend of the daily spot hire rates,
which factors drive the average daily hire rates, the characteristics of the
long-term prospects of the capesize dry bulk industry, if the purchase of
the $39M capesize should be done, and eventually we discuss the
companys policy of not operating ships over fifteen years old.
As concerned the daily spot hire rates, we expect the daily spot hire rates
will decrease the next two years. This decrease is caused by falling growth
rates for iron ore shipments and imports of iron ore. It is also expected that
the worldwide capesize fleet will increase, due the number of expected
deliveries and the age of the young fleet. From 2003 on, we expect the
daily spot hire rates to increase, caused by an increasing growth from the
iron ore exports in Australia and India. These rising exports will increase
trading volumes, which increases prices.
Several factors drive average daily hire rates. We consider three main
factors influencing the average daily hire rates: the world economy, trade
patterns and the age of a vessel. First, the world economy influences the
rates by supply and demand. When the world economy grows, production
and demand for iron ore will increase, which increases trading volumes
and increasing prices, as we discussed earlier. These increasing prices
then will increase daily hire rates. Secondly, the age of a vessel will
influence the daily hire rate too. Partly due to technological innovation,
manufacturing companies keep succeeding in manufacturing newer, faster
and bigger vessels. Due to increasing R&D and manufacturing costs, these
vessels require higher hire rates, to keep the business profitable. At last,
trade patterns (i.e. importing and exporting countries) influence the daily
hire rates too. As discussed earlier, growing exports from iron ore in
Australia and India leads to growing demand over supply, which increases
the daily hire rates.
For the long-term prospects of the capesize dry bulk industry we expect
this industry will see a long term growth. In a period of 25 years, it is
expected that iron ore shipments will increase each year. The first two
years show a growth rate of 2%, after that the next years show a growth
rate of 1,5%. The average daily charter rate will increase too.
Besides that, Ms Linn is considering purchasing a $39M capesize. Ocean
Carriers is a US firm subject to 35% taxation, and is it located in Hong
Kong, where owners of Hong Kong ships are not required to pay any tax on
profits made overseas and are also exempted from paying any tax on
profit made on cargo uplifted from Hong Kong. It would be a good
opportunity doing such an investment, because of tax advantages
operating overseas.