Iowa: Trump Widens Lead Over Clinton: Monmouth University Poll
Iowa: Trump Widens Lead Over Clinton: Monmouth University Poll
Iowa: Trump Widens Lead Over Clinton: Monmouth University Poll
Released:
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Contact:
PATRICK MURRAY
732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office)
pdmurray@monmouth.edu
FollowonTwitter:@PollsterPatrick
Trump (42%) and Clinton (43%) are basically tied among voters with a college degree while
Trump leads 47% to 34% among those without a college education. In July, Clinton had a 46% to 34%
edge with college graduates while Trump had a 50% to 40% lead among those without a college degree.
Iowa is one of the few places where Trump has been able make inroads among voting blocs that
generally support Clinton, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University
Polling Institute.
Iowa voters take a dim view of both major party candidates. Only 32% have a favorable opinion
of Trump while 55% hold an unfavorable view of him, which is similar to his 33% - 51% rating in July.
Likewise, only 30% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 58% hold an unfavorable view of her,
which is similar to her 32% - 56% rating two months ago.
Turning to the Hawkeye States U.S. Senate race, six-term incumbent Chuck Grassley has nearly
doubled his prior lead over former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. The race now stands at 56% for
Grassley and 39% for Judge, with 2% supporting other candidates and 3% who are undecided. The
incumbent held a 52% to 42% lead in Monmouths July poll.
Grassleys electoral strength is built on a strong job performance rating from Iowa voters 58%
approve and 31% disapprove of the job he has done in Washington. He also has a solid personal rating of
50% favorable and 29% unfavorable, compared with a 46% favorable and 31% unfavorable rating in July.
Voters are more divided about the challenger. Judge holds a 27% favorable and 20% unfavorable
rating with 52% having no opinion of her. Her July rating was slightly better at 30% favorable and 14%
unfavorable, with 56% having no opinion.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 12 to 14, 2016 with
404 Iowa residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9
percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
DATA TABLES
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican,
Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party? [IF
UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you
lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
(with leaners)
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
(VOL) Other candidate
(VOL) Undecided
(n)
September
2016
July
2016
45%
37%
8%
2%
2%
6%
44%
42%
6%
1%
2%
6%
(404)
(401)
3.
If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Chuck Grassley the
Republican, Patty Judge the Democrat, or some other candidate? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had
to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Chuck
Grassley or Patty Judge?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
(with leaners)
Chuck Grassley
Patty Judge
Other candidate
(VOL) Undecided
(n)
September
2016
July
2016
56%
39%
2%
3%
52%
42%
0%
6%
(404)
(401)
September
2016
July
2016
32%
55%
14%
33%
51%
16%
(404)
(401)
5.
Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no
opinion of her?
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
(n)
September
2016
July
2016
30%
58%
12%
32%
56%
12%
(404)
(401)
September
2016
July
2016
50%
29%
21%
46%
31%
23%
(404)
(401)
7.
Is your general impression of Patty Judge favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no
opinion of her?
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
(n)
8.
September
2016
July
2016
27%
20%
52%
30%
14%
56%
(404)
(401)
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chuck Grassley is doing as U.S. senator?
Approve
Disapprove
(VOL) No opinion
(n)
September
2016
July
2016
58%
31%
11%
56%
33%
11%
(404)
(401)
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling
Institute from September 12 to 14, 2016 with a random sample of 404 likely Iowa voters. Interviews were
conducted by a live caller in English, including 353 drawn from a list of registered voters (203 landline /
150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 51 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible
for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age,
gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support
provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results
based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a
maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error
can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind
that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of opinion polls.
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
Self-Reported
29% Republican
47% Independent
24% Democrat
49% Male
51% Female
21% 18-34
24% 35-49
29% 50-64
26% 65+
94% White
3% Black
2% Hispanic
2% Other
MARGIN OF ERROR
unweighted
sample
moe
(+/-)
LIKELY VOTER
Total
404
4.9%
SELF-REPORTED
PARTY ID
Republican
Independent
Democrat
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
Male
Female
18-49
50+
No
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
120
185
98
165
155
72
200
204
148
249
245
155
133
125
93
9.0%
7.2%
9.9%
7.6%
7.9%
11.6%
6.9%
6.9%
8.1%
6.2%
6.3%
7.9%
8.5%
8.8%
10.2%
IDEOLOGY
GENDER
AGE
COLLEGE DEGREE
INCOME
###
PARTY ID
Rep
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
81%
44%
6%
72%
37%
10%
55%
36%
48%
Clinton
37%
6%
29%
91%
13%
47%
66%
27%
47%
33%
Johnson
8%
5%
13%
1%
7%
6%
12%
8%
8%
10%
Stein
2%
2%
3%
0%
1%
0%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
2%
Undecided
6%
4%
10%
1%
5%
7%
6%
6%
6%
4%
<$50K
$50-100K
COLLEGE DEGREE
No
INCOME
Yes
$100K+
Trump
42%
47%
42%
38%
49%
48%
Clinton
41%
34%
43%
39%
38%
36%
Johnson
6%
9%
6%
10%
6%
8%
Stein
2%
1%
3%
3%
1%
1%
2%
1%
2%
5%
0%
1%
Undecided
7%
7%
4%
4%
5%
7%
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
Grassley
56%
92%
58%
8%
81%
51%
15%
64%
47%
60%
Judge
39%
6%
35%
88%
18%
41%
79%
30%
48%
34%
Other cand
2%
0%
3%
1%
0%
2%
4%
2%
2%
2%
Undecided
3%
2%
4%
4%
1%
7%
1%
4%
2%
3%
<$50K
$50-100K
AGE 2-WAY
50+
Q3. SEN VOTE WITH LEANERS
Con
45%
50+
Dem
Trump
AGE 2-WAY
Q1-2. PREZ VOTE WITH
LEANERS
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
COLLEGE DEGREE
No
Yes
INCOME
$100K+
Grassley
51%
55%
56%
46%
57%
63%
Judge
44%
40%
39%
50%
38%
33%
Other cand
1%
2%
1%
2%
3%
0%
Undecided
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
4%
Page 1
PARTY ID
Rep
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
6%
51%
26%
4%
36%
28%
32%
Unfavorable
55%
30%
53%
88%
33%
59%
90%
47%
61%
53%
No opinion
14%
16%
16%
6%
16%
15%
6%
16%
11%
16%
COLLEGE DEGREE
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Favorable
32%
34%
29%
25%
33%
35%
Unfavorable
56%
51%
61%
58%
57%
53%
No opinion
12%
15%
10%
17%
10%
12%
PARTY ID
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
Favorable
30%
5%
20%
80%
9%
36%
59%
17%
42%
25%
Unfavorable
58%
88%
63%
13%
81%
50%
29%
68%
48%
64%
No opinion
12%
7%
17%
8%
10%
14%
12%
15%
9%
11%
AGE 2-WAY
50+
COLLEGE DEGREE
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Favorable
34%
28%
34%
34%
32%
25%
Unfavorable
53%
58%
58%
52%
53%
72%
No opinion
12%
15%
8%
14%
15%
4%
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
Favorable
50%
83%
51%
9%
70%
47%
17%
56%
44%
47%
Unfavorable
29%
4%
27%
62%
10%
33%
60%
23%
35%
22%
No opinion
21%
13%
22%
29%
20%
20%
23%
20%
21%
31%
AGE 2-WAY
50+
Q6. Is your general impression of
Chuck Grassley favorable or
unfavorable, or do you have no
opinion of him?
GENDER
Lib
32%
Rep
Mod
54%
TOTAL
Con
32%
50+
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Favorable
AGE 2-WAY
Q4. Is your general impression of
Donald Trump favorable or
unfavorable, or do you have no
opinion of him?
Ind
COLLEGE DEGREE
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Favorable
52%
48%
53%
43%
53%
56%
Unfavorable
35%
30%
29%
36%
33%
20%
No opinion
13%
22%
18%
21%
14%
24%
Page 2
PARTY ID
Rep
Dem
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
7%
25%
57%
12%
32%
51%
20%
34%
20%
Unfavorable
20%
39%
17%
5%
32%
15%
6%
26%
15%
16%
No opinion
52%
54%
58%
38%
56%
53%
43%
54%
51%
64%
COLLEGE DEGREE
No
INCOME
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Favorable
33%
27%
28%
32%
31%
19%
Unfavorable
24%
20%
21%
20%
17%
25%
No opinion
43%
53%
50%
48%
52%
56%
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
Female
Approve
58%
86%
63%
14%
80%
53%
23%
66%
50%
Disapprove
31%
6%
26%
70%
11%
36%
61%
24%
37%
11%
8%
11%
16%
9%
12%
16%
10%
12%
AGE 2-WAY
18-49
Q8. Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Chuck
Grassley is doing as U.S.
senator?
Mod
27%
50+
Con
Favorable
AGE 2-WAY
Q7. Is your general impression of
Patty Judge favorable or
unfavorable, or do you have no
opinion of her?
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
COLLEGE DEGREE
50+
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Approve
57%
58%
57%
59%
53%
59%
Disapprove
28%
33%
31%
31%
38%
32%
68%
23%
15%
9%
12%
10%
9%
9%
10%
Page 3